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AFC Divisional Playoff Notes
January 10, 2016

Saturday, Jan. 16

Kansas City at New England (CBS, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: The Patriots opened as 5 ½-point favorites and the number dropped to five at a few shops and as low as 4 ½ at others. The total opened as high as 45 ½ and is now sitting at 43 ½ and 43 everywhere as of Sunday morning.

Injuries: Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin (knee) and Patriots WR Julian Edelman (foot) have both been ruled as ‘questionable’ but a lot of preliminary reports believe the Kansas City wide out could be done for the season.

Kansas City Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-1-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: Last season, the Chiefs blasted the Patriots 41-14 as 2 ½-point home underdogs in primetime showdown. Many pundits believed New England was done at the time but they silenced everybody by eventually winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have won and covered their last six encounters against AFC East foes. New England is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games versus AFC West opponents which includes a run of five straight victories at home.

Playoff Notes: Last Saturday’s playoff win for the Chiefs was the first for the franchise since 1994 and also the first for head coach Andy Reid in Kansas City. Bill Belichick has gone 21-8 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the team has gone 14-3 SU and 8-5-1 ATS during this span while the ‘under’ is 10-7. In the last seven postseason games played at Foxboro, the Patriots are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS with four of the victories come by double digits.

Total Notes: Kansas City has watched the ‘over-under’ go 8-8-1 this season and that includes a 5-3-1 mark on the road. The Chiefs have scored 45, 29, 33, 34, 34 and 30 points in their last six games away from home. New England saw the ‘over’ go 9-7 this season but the total was a stalemate (4-4) at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots averaged 29.1 PPG this season, and 31.6 PPG at home.



Sunday, Jan. 17

Pittsburgh at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: Sportsbook.ag opened the Broncos as three-point home favorites with a total of 40. The number has jumped up to 5 ½ at this shop. CG Technology in Las Vegas is holding Denver -6 and 5Dimes.eu has Denver -7 (+120) as of Sunday morning.

Injuries: Pittsburgh has three key players knocked up and all are listed as ‘questionable’ for Sunday. QB Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder), WR Antonio Brown (concussion) and RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle). Denver QB Peyton Manning was named the starter for this game after missing six games at the end of the season.

Pittsburgh Road Record: 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Denver Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Steelers defeated the Broncos 34-27 in Week 15 and failed to cover as 7 ½-point home favorites. This number closed high but most books had Pittsburgh -6 and -6 ½ prior to the late rush before kickoff. Prior to this result, the most recent meeting between the pair took place in the 2012 season when they squared off against each other twice. Denver won both games at home, 31-19 in the regular season and 29-23 in the playoffs, which was Tim Tebow’s signature win. The Broncos are 7-3 SU and 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the AFC North. The ‘over’ has gone 8-2 during this span. Despite beating Denver this season, Pittsburgh is just 5-5 in its last 10 against the AFC West and only 2-7-1 ATS in those games.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s win over the Bengals, head coach Mike Tomlin is 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. The victory at Cincinnati was just the second postseason win for Tomlin away from home. Since Peyton Manning joined the Broncos, the team is 2-3 in the playoffs which includes a pedestrian 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS mark at home. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in those four home playoff games. Denver head coach Gary Kubiak has been to the playoffs four times with the Houston Texans and went 2-2.

Total Notes: The Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season and that includes a 7-2 mark on the road. Pittsburgh enters this game with a 3-0 ‘under’ streak. Denver has been an ‘under’ (9-6-1) team as well this season, especially at home where it owns a 5-2-1 mark.

[StarDust Bum]

Books win Wild Card weekend
January 11, 2016

For the first time ever during an NFL Playoff weekend all four road teams won, three of which happened to be favorites with the other only being a small underdog who originally opened as the favorite.

The net result for the Las Vegas sports books was a winning Wild Card weekend, but almost every book had the feeling of chips being left on the table when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard go-ahead field goal with 26 seconds remaining, which helped the Seahawks advance to next weekend’s divisional playoff round with a 10-9 win.

“Seattle was a good win for us in regards to parlays,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, “but the teasers hurt us as did the Seattle money-line.”

The Seahawks had been as high as six-point favorites, but closed -4.5 at most sports books. Had the Vikings won 12-10, it would have destroyed a huge chunk of remaining teasers that had Seattle +1.5 to pick ‘em.

Osborne said the Seahawks, who were the biggest favorites of the weekend, was the most heavily bet teaser and parlay game of weekend. Seattle had been a popular choice at -230 on all money-line parlays and the missed field goal allowed several to cash with the Saturday’s two favorites -- Kansas City and Pittsburgh -- winning.

“Today (Sunday) was okay, said CG TechnologyVP of risk management Jason Simbal. “The Vikings covering for us was good, but it would have been better if they won. We went red/red (any side/total decision) into the last game because of parlays, but were guaranteed a winning day once the Vikings got there.”

Most books opened the Packers -1 or pick ‘em but by kickoff, enough Redskins straight bet action had pushed the Redskins to -1.5 which made them the only home favorites of the weekend. After the Redskins jumped out to early 11-0 lead, most Washington bettors had an uneasy feeling about their wager just because the Redskins had already squandered so many scoring opportunities. The Packers end up outscoring Washington 35-8 after spotting them the lead, which ended Green Bay’s two-game losing streak and Washington’s four-game winning streak.

“The last game of these playoff weekends is always rough because so much risk is built up from the first three games,” said Osborne, “and we had equal action on the Packers and Redskins, so we still managed to do okay with it.”

The first three games of the weekend saw the games stay UNDER the total, but bettors were out in force betting the OVER in the Packers-Redskins game which pushed the total from 45 all the way up to 47.5 and the wager never seemed in doubt as the Packers cruised to a 35-18 win.

Saturday’s games saw the Chiefs win their 11th straight game (8-3 ATS) in a 30-0 win at Houston -- a game that wasn’t even that close as Texans’ QB Brian Hoyer accounted for five turnovers.

In the late game, the Bengals made a furious come back after being down 15-0 to take a 16-15 lead over the Steelers, which all coincided with a crushing hit on Ben Roethlisberger's shoulder that took him out of the game. Big Ben would come back with his injured shoulder for the final drive and took them 74 yards for the winning field goal, which was aided by 30 yards worth of two personal foul penalties on the Bengals when Pittsburgh only had 22 second remaining with no timeouts left from the Bengals 47 yard line. Final score: Steelers 18, Bengals 16.

The Steelers opened up as three-point road favorites and were at -2.5 for the majority of the week until dropping to -1.5 on Saturday. Most of the public parlay action had the Steelers -2.5. The South Point was able to come out ahead in this game in part because of offering attractive money-line odds on the Bengals, which plenty of large bets took.

“(Saturday) was kind of the same as Sunday,” said Simbal. “We lost to KC, but got it back with the Bengals covering.”

That seemed to be the same story with everyone around town, and teasers played a major role everywhere as the sides went 6-2 with Pittsburgh-Cincinnati and Seattle-Minnesota being all-way side wins. It’s a pretty cool option for the bettor when a game is close as the spread suggests and everyone wins on a teaser while the book has no chance.

“The Chiefs and Packers-Redskins game were no good for us,” said Station Casinos Jason McCormick, ”but it was still solid weekend results and we’re looking forward to the great matchups next week.“

Those matchups this week truly are great with the best of the best squaring off.

The first game Saturday has the Patriots as 5.5-point home favorites against the Chiefs. New England lost its last two games and four of six (2-4 ATS), but lost only one home game all season. The late game will feature a rematch from Week 16 where the Cardinals embarrassed the Packers 38-8. Arizona was favored by 10-points in that game, but are now only -7 this week.

On Sunday, the Panthers are 2.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks, a team that no one seems to want to face. Every NFC team alive was grimacing when Walsh missed the field goal because there was a easy chance to oust the top rated team in the league. Carolina being -2.5 suggests that they’re equal on a neutral field, and that’s not really the case as Seattle is about 3-points better in the power ratings which means this game should probably be closer to pick ’em when factoring in Carolina’s home field.

The most interesting game of the weekend will be the Steelers getting six points at Denver, which is a rematch from Week 15 when Denver was getting +7.5 at Pittsburgh, and lost 34-27. The spreads of the two games look funny with a 13.5-point swing after such a short time frame, but a lot has happened since then.

Both these teams are rated equally, which should call for Denver -3, but now you have to figure in a slight upgrade of about 2-points from backup quarterback Brock Osweiler, who played in the first game, to Sunday’s starter Peyton Manning. Then you have a cautionary measure placed on the Steelers because of Big Ben likely not being 100 percent -- he told his offensive coordinator to not call any deep passes on that last drive at Cincinnati because he couldn’t make the pass. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White say the difference between Rosthlisberger and back-up Landry Jones is worth at least 5-points.

Wild Card weekend was a teaser bonanza for bettors and the teaser action this week will be even higher just because of more higher profile teams and larger spreads.

Look for the New England, Arizona, Seattle and Pittsburgh teaser to be one of the books worst outcomes this weekend.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC Divisional Playoff Notes
January 11, 2016


Saturday, Jan. 16

Green Bay at Arizona (NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas sent out the Cardinals as 7 ½-point favorites with a total of 49 ½. A couple major offshores in CRIS and 5Dimes opened Arizona -7 (-120) and the line has held steady at most shops, some making you lay the juice while others are flat (-110). The total has moved up to 50 at most betting shops.

Injuries: The Packers are hoping to get DB Sam Shields (concussion) and OL David Bakhtiari (ankle) back in the lineup after missing last week’s win at Washington. They are listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday.

Green Bay Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
Arizona Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Cardinals blasted the Packers 38-8 in Week 15 but the game changed late in the first half as Green Bay was picked off in the endzone. Arizona turned that mistake into a 17-0 halftime lead and cruised in the final 30 minutes with the help from two defensive touchdowns.

Playoff Notes: Prior to last week’s win at Washington, the Packers were 2-4 in their last six playoff appearances and that included a 0-2 road record. Green Bay was in a similar role last season at Seattle and wound up collapsing late in a 28-22 overtime loss but covered the number. Arizona hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010 and coincidentally that victory came at home against Green Bay in a wild 51-45 shootout. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer will only be making his third playoff start and he’s 0-2 but he was knocked out early to a gruesome knee injury in his first appearance versus the Steelers.

Total Notes: Even though Sunday’s result vs. Washington went ‘over’ the number, the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season but five of those ‘over’ tickets have occurred on the road. Arizona leaned slightly to the high side (9-7) this season but it closed the season on a 5-1 run to the ‘under.’ Arizona played in three games with totals listed in the fifties and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games. The Packers have seen the ‘under’ cash in all three games with totals listed in the fifties. Dating back to 2009, the Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games.



Sunday, Jan. 17

Seattle at Carolina (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: The Panthers opened as 2 ½-point favorites and have moved to 3 (EVEN) at most betting shops. The total is holding steady at 43 ½ but a few outfits are holding 44.

Injuries: Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch (abdominal) didn’t make the trip to Minnesota last week and is ‘questionable’ for Sunday.

Seattle Road Record: 6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Carolina Home Record: 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: Carolina snapped a five-game losing streak to Seattle earlier this season with a 27-23 victory as a seven-point road underdog. In last year’s postseason, the Seahawks defeated the Panthers 31-17 in the Divisional Playoff round. In the last three games played at Carolina between the pair, Seattle has won all three but all of the games were decided by five points or less (16-12, 12-7, 13-9).

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s win, Seattle is now 7-2 in the postseason with Russell Wilson at quarterback and that includes a 3-2 record away from home. Carolina is 1-2 in the playoffs with Cam Newton under center and is 0-3 in its last three postseason games played in the Divisional Playoff round, two of those setbacks coming at home and all the losses were by double digits.

Total Notes: Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 10-7 this season and the ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run headed into this week’s game. Carolina has the second best ‘over’ mark (10-5-1) this season and was 5-2-1 to the ‘over’ at home. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last two meetings between the pair, both of those games were played at Seattle. In the previous three games played at Carolina, the ‘under’ cashed in all three.

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos healthier, ready for Steelers
January 11, 2016

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) The Denver Broncos are back at practice, preparing for the one team that solved their league-best defense.

The only two players who were absent from Monday's practice were safety Darian Stewart (hamstring) and cornerback Chris Harris Jr. (shoulder).

Denver (12-4) hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) on Sunday in the AFC divisional playoffs.

The Broncos blew a 17-point lead in a 34-27 loss at Pittsburgh on Dec. 20. Denver was without safeties Stewart, T.J. Ward and Omar Bolden that day and David Bruton Jr. played 75 snaps on a broken right leg.

The Steelers were the only team to top 30 points on Denver this season, and ailing Ben Roethlisberger was the only QB to throw for more than 300 yards against them.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL ATS

NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play ON DENVER against the spread in All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 17 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+12.6 units)

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NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (301) KANSAS CITY@ (302) NEW ENGLAND | 2016-01-16 16:35:00 - 2016-01-16 16:35:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 36 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+26.9 units)

NFL > (301) KANSAS CITY@ (302) NEW ENGLAND | 2016-01-16 16:35:00 - 2016-01-16 16:35:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in Home games against conference opponents
The record is 13 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)

NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 27 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (+20.15 units)

NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 15 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.6 units)

NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.2 units)

NFL > (303) GREEN BAY@ (304) ARIZONA | 2016-01-16 20:15:00 - 2016-01-16 20:15:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
The record is 9 Wins and 2 Losses for the since 1992 (+11.45 units)

NFL > (303) GREEN BAY@ (304) ARIZONA | 2016-01-16 20:15:00 - 2016-01-16 20:15:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 26 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+17 units)

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NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play AGAINST SEATTLE ?>in the first halfin Road games in January games
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the since 1992 (-11.1 units)

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin Home games off a win against a division rival
The record is 6 Overs and 29 Unders for the since 1992 (+22.4 units)

NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)

NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin Home games
The record is 2 Overs and 33 Unders for the since 1992 (+30.8 units)

NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin All games off a win against a division rival
The record is 18 Overs and 46 Unders for the since 1992 (+26.2 units)

NFL > (305) SEATTLE@ (306) CAROLINA | 2016-01-17 13:05:00 - 2016-01-17 13:05:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 7 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (307) PITTSBURGH@ (308) DENVER | 2016-01-17 16:40:00 - 2016-01-17 16:40:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin All games versus the 1rst half line in road games
The record is 3 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.7 units)

[StarDust Bum]

Steelers' big-name injuries could swing odds a touchdown, say oddsmakers

The Steelers could be without Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams versus Denver in the Divisional Round.

NFL Wild Card Weekend was, in a word, wild. The lower-seeded road teams, while not necessarily underdogs, got the best of the home squads, and nowhere was the outcome crazier than in Cincinnati.

Sixth-seeded Pittsburgh went off as 2-point chalk against the third-seeded Bengals, and the Steelers went into the fourth quarter with a 15-0 lead. However, they let Cincinnati come all the way back and ultimately found themselves trailing 16-15 in the waning minutes.

But in a sequence that writing can’t do justice, Ben Roethlisberger came back into the game despite a bum right shoulder, Cincinnati committed two huge penalties, and Pittsburgh kicked a field goal to claim an 18-16 victory and a push for bettors.

It was part of a weekend in which all four road teams won. So the Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS) will now move on to face top-seeded Denver (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS). The Broncos secured the No. 1 seed and the bye that comes with it when Peyton Manning came off the bench in Week 17 to lead a 27-20 win over San Diego, though Denver fell short as a 10-point favorite.

Manning missed several weeks prior to that, but he will start in Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff game. Roethlisberger has a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder and his status is uncertain. These two teams just met in Week 15 in Pittsburgh, with Roethlisberger rallying Pittsburgh from a 27-13 halftime deficit to a 34-27 victory as a 7.5-point favorite.

Denver will be the home favorite this time around. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said Big Ben’s status will force oddsmakers to wait on posting a number.

“Roethlisberger is worth a minimum seven points to a spread, so we’ll wait to confirm his playing status before opening a line,” Lester said. “If he’s ready to go, look for the Broncos to be around 4-point chalk. If he’s out, we’re probably looking at double digits, because Landry Jones is a liability under center. And Jones may not have a legit backup to fall back on.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said it’s not just Roethlisberger’s status that’s holding things up. Steelers wideout Antonio Brown is in concussion protocol, and running back DeAngelo Williams missed the Wild Card game with a foot injury.

“There is no way I can hang a number on this game until I know all of the participants,” Avello said. “With Roethlisberger, Brown and Williams all questionable, and Landry Jones as the backup, this line could be anything from Denver -4 to -10. The Steelers did beat the Broncos as a 7-point favorite a few weeks ago, but the circumstances have changed.”

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks are still in the hunt for a third straight Super Bowl bid – barely. The No. 6 seed trailed No. 3 seed Minnesota 9-0 entering the fourth quarter Sunday, got a touchdown and a field goal to take the lead, then watched as Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal in the final seconds.

That gave Seattle a 10-9 victory in bone-chilling subzero weather, though the Seahawks (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) failed to cash as 4-point road faves. They’ll move on to an NFC Divisional Round game against No. 1 seed Carolina (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS) next Sunday.

The Panthers made a run at a perfect season until Week 16, when they went to Atlanta and fell 20-13 as 7-point favorites. But Cam Newton & Co. got right back to form in the regular season finale, trampling Tampa Bay 38-10 while giving 10 points at home.

These two teams met in Week 6 in Seattle, with Carolina rallying for a 27-23 victory as a 7-point road underdog.

“The Seahawks’ season should be over, but it's not, and they get a chance to redeem an early-season loss to the top dog in the NFC,” Avello said. “These two have had quite a few exciting battles over the last two years, with Seattle the favorite in all. The Panthers will be the short favorite in this one as they try to keep their perfect home record intact.”

Lester has already had to move his line at Bookmaker.

“The first smart bet came in on Carolina, so we’ve adjusted the spread to -3 (even),” he said. “It certainly feels like the Panthers should be bigger favorites here, but you can’t undervalue the solid second half of the season Seattle had, and the fact that they’re the two-time defending NFC champs. We’ll get to see just how much Cam Newton has matured here. He beat this team in the regular season, but the playoffs are an entirely different beast.”

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-4.5)

Fifth-seeded Kansas City set the tone in the first game of Wild Card weekend, going to No. 4 seed Houston Saturday and posting a 30-0 blowout as a 3-point favorite. There is no hotter team in the league than the Chiefs (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS), who started the season 1-5 SU and ATS, but have won 11 in a row since then (8-3 ATS) to reach the AFC divisional playoff round.

Waiting for the Chiefs next Saturday will be No. 2 seed New England (12-4 SU, 7-7-2 ATS), which had the table all set to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed before faltering in the last two weeks of the regular season. The Patriots went off as 2.5-point road chalk at the New York Jets in Week 16 and lost 26-20 in overtime, then tumbled 20-10 laying 10 points at Miami in Week 17.

But New England still got a much-needed bye and will likely be as healthy as it’s been in several weeks.

“We opened this spread looking for Patriots money, because the sharps will probably be on Kansas City again,” Lester said. “So far, that’s what has happened, because the early action was on New England, and we are currently offering -5. The total has been hammered all the way down to 43. If the Chiefs can keep it low-scoring, they’ve got a real shot at the upset.”

Avello opened the Pats at -5.

“As a home favorite, that’s the lowest they've been this entire season,” he said. “I felt there initially would be play on the underdog Chiefs, because of their 11-win run and the dismal effort from the Pats in their last two regular-season games. This number may go up if Tom Brady's supporting cast is deemed healthy to play.”

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

The fifth-seeded Packers made it a weekend sweep for the road teams, erasing an 11-0 deficit at No. 4 seed Washington and ultimately coasting to a 35-18 victory getting two points Sunday. Next Saturday, the Packers (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) will return to Glendale, Ariz., where a couple of weeks ago Green Bay got manhandled by Arizona 38-8 catching six points.

The Cardinals (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) were steady all season long, winning nine in a row (5-4 ATS) after a 1-2 SU and ATS hiccup in October. Arizona capped that run with the rout of Green Bay in Week 16. But in the regular season finale, laying six points at home to Seattle and still with an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, the Cardinals got boatraced 36-6.

“It's rare to find the Packers getting 7 or more points, but that is the case now and also was in Week 16 in this same location,” Avello said. “It's difficult to say if the old Packers showed up this past weekend against Washington or if the Skins are just a cut below the rest. The Cardinals didn't seem interested in their game against Seattle in Week 17, but I expect to see a more prepared Cardinals team for this one.”

Lester believes Arizona’s loss to Seattle was an anomaly, and that the Pack can expect a stiff challenge in the rematch.

“Green Bay appeared to have found some offensive footing in the second half of the Washington game, but it’s not as if the Redskins have a good defense,” he said. “Arizona’s excellent pass defense will certainly be a test for Aaron Rodgers and his limited wide receiving corps. We felt very comfortable opening at a touchdown, and this number could climb.”

[StarDust Bum]

Don't miss your window to get the most from these NFL Divisional Round bets

In three previous playoff games, Cam Newton has five interceptions and a lost fumble – numbers which no doubt the Seahawks are aware of.

Spread to bet now

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)

You believe that late-season swan dive was just a mirage, that the Pack is (really) back and perhaps just one week away from getting revenge for last season’s epic flameout in Seattle? Early money is down on the Packers in this one - no doubt the product of the books attaching an extra half-point to the line.

The line appears more than reasonable, though, considering Green Bay’s struggles late in the season and the fact that the Cardinals have had an extra week to rest in the wake of their meaningless 30-point loss at home to the Seahawks. Much of the early money is probably a reflection of the Packers’ dominance in the Wild Card game, and the betting should even out as we go through the week, keeping the line at 7.5.

Spread to wait on

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5)

The issue in New England is health - or rather lack of it. Late-season tanking allowed the Pats to keep Tom Brady (barely) and Rob Gronkowski healthy enough, but no one knows whether the offensive line – not all that great to begin with – will be anything near what now constitutes full strength.

And a sieve for an o-line means pressure on Brady, which means he needs to get the ball out quickly, which means receivers can’t get into even intermediate routes, which means that it kind of all depends whether Edelman is back and going at pretty much to 100 percent.

Edelman has missed five games with a broken foot, and in the last six (including the game in which he was injured), New England is 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS. And now, the Chiefs head to Gillette Stadium, on an 11-game run of all runs. Hang on to see what comes out of the Pats camp on the injury front.

Total to watch

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (44)

It’s all about the style and show for Cam Newton, so don’t expect the flamboyant QB to morph into an Alex Smith-type game manager now that the spotlight is squaring on him. Newton is going to want to let it fly and that might be a problem, because Newton has shown a tendency to give the ball up.

In three previous playoff games he has five interceptions and a lost fumble – numbers which no doubt the Seahawks are aware of (of course, that Newton and the current MVP-edition Newton are 180-degree different). A wild game should produce more than its share of points. On the other side, be aware that five straight Seahawks games have gone Under.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Division Round

Kansas City @ New England

Game 301-302
January 16, 2016 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
133.963
New England
142.565
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5
43
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-5); Over

Green Bay @ Arizona

Game 303-304
January 16, 2016 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
139.129
Arizona
141.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+7 1/2); Over


Pittsburgh @ Denver

Game 307-308
January 17, 2016 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
134.281
Denver
143.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 9 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-6 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Carolina

Game 305-306
January 17, 2016 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
142.882
Carolina
141.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+3); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 16

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KANSAS CITY (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/16/2016, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 172-132 ATS (+26.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-79 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (11 - 6) at ARIZONA (13 - 3) - 1/16/2016, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 17

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SEATTLE (11 - 6) at CAROLINA (15 - 1) - 1/17/2016, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
CAROLINA is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 6) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/17/2016, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 0-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 16

4:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Kansas City

8:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Arizona
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Arizona is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay


Sunday, January 17

1:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games

4:40 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. DENVER
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Denver is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

Key NFL Injury Updates

Wild Card weekend is in the rear view mirror, with all four road teams emerging victorious on the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. One game was a blowout, with the Chiefs destroying the Texans. Two games were coin flips that came down to last second field goals, with the Steelers making their field goal while the Vikings missed theirs, allowing Seattle to survive and advance. And the fourth game was a close contest that turned into a blowout by the end of the fourth quarter thanks to a performance from Green Bay that was as good as anything that we’ve seen from the Packers since October.

The mainstream media will focus on the quarterbacks and the head coaches, because that’s what the mainstream media does. In the mainstream world, Andy Reid; noted for a decade worth of playoff failures in Philadelphia, is now a ‘genius’ because his team is on an eleven game winning streak. Aaron Rodgers, off the worst statistical season of his career, is now back to his elite self; thanks to one playoff win against a banged up defense.

Serious bettors know one thing about the NFL Playoffs – health matters! Do the Chiefs win by 30 at Houston if Brian Hoyer has his left tackle, Duane Brown, protecting him? Do the Steelers execute their game winning drive in the final minute if it was Landry Jones behind center instead of Ben Roethlisberger? Does Aaron Rodgers rally the Packers from behind if the Redskins secondary was healthy? Minnesota was missing key starters on all three units of their defense in their regular season meeting with Seattle, allowing 38 points and 433 yards as a result. In the playoff rematch, the Vikings defense was healthy again and the Seahawks were held to 10 points – all in the fourth quarter – and 226 total yards.

Injuries matter, and they matter the most here in January when teams stack up against other elite competitors. This year’s Super Bowl champion is every bit as likely to be determined by which top notch contender is healthy enough to execute their gameplan effectively over the next few weekends as any other factor. With that in mind, let’s take a brief look at the injury situation for each of the eight teams still standing.

The Green Bay Packers suffered a couple of key injuries on Sunday, but, in general, they are getting healthier. Key offensive lineman Brian Bulaga was healthy enough to go against Washington, and his counterpart at the other tackle spot, David Bakhtiari could be back on the field this Sunday at Arizona. Both guys missed the Week 16 matchup against the Cardinals and Aaron Rodgers took eight sacks as a result!

The Packers won on Sunday without starting CB Sam Shields, still in concussion protocol. There’s a decent chance Shields could be back on the field this week. But WR Davante Adams went down with a knee injury on Sunday. Although he avoided surgery, his status for Saturday’s game at Arizona is very questionable, potentially leaving Rodgers without one of his better targets for the rematch against the Cards.

The Arizona Cardinals lost pro bowl safety Tyrann Mathieu following that Week 16 win over Green Bay, and his absence was felt immediately – they got picked apart by Russell Wilson in a blowout loss the following week. But other than the Mathieu injury, Bruce Arians squad is fairly healthy, with LB Markus Golden and DR Josh Mauro both expected back this week. Most importantly, they didn’t get riddled with key injuries down the stretch; in good shape heading into their playoff opener.

The New England Patriots got last weekend off, and they needed it. No other playoff team came close to suffering the rash of injuries that the Pats have suffered, but a whole host of injured Patriots could be back on the field next Saturday.

New England will get back WR Danny Amendola following a nine week absence. LB Donta’ Hightower is expected to suit up, as is key pass rusher Chandler Jones and elite offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer. All four guys are what I would call ‘impact players’, and their return to the field makes the Pats a much, much better team than the one that went 2-4 to close out the regular season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have injuries to their top three pass rushers, bad news against Tom Brady! Tama Hali, Justin Houston and Dee Ford are all ailing, but all three are likely to suit up on Saturday. But their top deep threat, WR Jeremy Maclin, suffered a high ankle sprain in the win over Houston. Even if Maclin suits up in Foxboro, he’s not likely to be his explosive self. KC also lost starting offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to a concussion, joining starting center Mitch Morse in concussion protocol moving forward. If that duo doesn’t suit up this weekend, it’s going to have a major effect on Kansas City’s chances.

The Carolina Panthers suffered two major late season injuries. The Panthers lost two of their top three cornerbacks to season enders, with Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere going down. That being said, this team was as healthy as it gets at the NFL level for a good portion of the season, and just about everyone who sat Week 17 for resting purposes should suit up on Sunday.

The Seattle Seahawks late season resurgence has come entirely without RB Marshawn Lynch on the field. They went 3-4 SU in the seven games that Lynch was healthy enough to play in. I don’t think he moves the needle one iota – not even worth a half point to the spread, or to the eventual result. But Lynch is a ‘superstar’ and his status moving forward is likely to affect the pointspread, at least a little bit, as he tries to recover from an abdominal injury that has kept him sidelined for the last two months.

That being said, the Seahawks came out of Sunday’s game at Minnesota virtually unscathed. The only new player on their injury report Monday morning was the punter, Jon Ryan, who had his nose bloodied but was still fine to finish the game against the Vikings. I’d be very surprised if Ryan wasn’t good to go at Carolina.

The Pittsburgh Steelers injury concerns are very real as they get ready for the Broncos. Ben Roethlisberger’s got a bum shoulder – one notable report listed it as a separated shoulder -- but early reports indicate that he’s likely to suit up. WR Antonio Brown needs to go through concussion protocol before he’ll be allowed to play, although early week signs look good in that regard. And even with cluster injuries at running back, it was a non-factor on Sunday, with Jordan Todman and Fitz Toussaint filling the void effectively. That being said, other than the skill position question marks, Pittsburgh is at near full health in the trenches (center Maurkice Pouncey has been out since October) and on the defensive side of the football.

Of course, the Denver Broncos have a QB injury question mark of their own, with Peyton Manning having only nine pass attempts under his belt since his injury/benching in Week 10 against the Chiefs. According to the latest practice report coming out of Colorado, head coach Gary Kubiak was confident that his QB was good to go. “He looks really fresh out there and is throwing the ball well.”

Denver got starting cornerback Aqib Talib and starting tight end Owen Daniels back in practice last week, and LB Brandon Marshall should be good to go by Sunday. Kubiak was very positive about the injury situation heading into their game against the Steelers: "We’ve gotten some guys freshened up and in a good frame of mind. It looks like we’re going to be pretty close maybe to Wednesday being about as close to where we started back four months ago. That’s a good thing.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Divisional Round


Saturday - Jan, 16

Kansas City at New England, 4:35 ET
Kansas City: 2-10 ATS in playoff games
New England: 17-7 ATS in home lined games

Green Bay at Arizona, 8:15 ET
Green Bay: 8-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Arizona: 43-26 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game


Sunday - Jan, 17

Seattle at Carolina, 1:05 ET
Seattle: 7-0 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent
Carolina: 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

Pittsburgh at Denver, 4:40 ET
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders
Denver: 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of last 4 games

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Saturday
January 15, 2016


The ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the opening round and all of the results were clear-cut. The lone ‘over’ winner occurred in the Green Bay-Washington matchup, which was also the highest total posted in the Wild Card round. Total bettors mixing it up with half-time wagers saw the ‘under’ go 3-1 in both the first and second halves last weekend.

Divisional Playoff History

In last year’s second round of the postseason, bettors saw the first two games go ‘over’ on Saturday while the ‘under’ connected in each game on Sunday. Including those results, the ‘under’ is 5-3 in the Divisional Playoffs the last two years but the ‘over’ was on an 11-1 run in the three previous seasons.

TOTAL HISTORY (2004-2014)

2004 (TOTAL 2-2) 2005 (UNDER 3-1)

Pittsburgh 20 N.Y. Jets 17 - OVER 35 Denver 27 New England 13 - UNDER 44

Atlanta 47 St. Louis 17 - OVER 48.5 Seattle 20 Washington 10 - UNDER 41

Philadelphia 27 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 47.5 Carolina 29 Chicago 21 - OVER 30.5

New England 20 Indianapolis 3 - UNDER 52.5 Pittsburgh 21 Indianapolis 18 - UNDER 47.5
2006 (TOTAL 2-2) 2007 (TOTAL 2-2)

New Orleans 27 Philadelphia 24 - OVER 49 Green Bay 42 Seattle 20 - OVER 44

Indianapolis 15 Baltimore 6 - UNDER 41.5 New England 31 Jacksonville 20 - UNDER 51.5

Chicago 27 Seattle 24 - OVER 37.5 San Diego 28 Indianapolis 24 - OVER 46.5

New England 24 San Diego 21 - UNDER 46.5 N.Y. Giants 21 Dallas 17 - UNDER 47
2008 (UNDER 3-1) 2009 (UNDER 3-1)

Arizona 33 Carolina 13 - UNDER 49.5 New Orleans 45 Arizona 14 - OVER 57

Baltimore 13 Tennessee 10 - UNDER 33.5 Indianapolis 20 Baltimore 3 - UNDER 44

Pittsburgh 35 San Diego 24 - OVER 38 Minnesota 34 Dallas 3 - UNDER 45.5

Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants 11 - UNDER 39 N.Y. Jets 17 San Diego 14 - UNDER 42.5
2010 (OVER 4-0) 2011 (OVER 3-1)

Pittsburgh 31 Baltimore 24 - OVER 37.5 New Orleans 32 San Francisco 36 - OVER 46.5

Green Bay 48 Atlanta 21 - OVER 43.5 Denver 10 New England 45 - OVER 50

Chicago 35 Seattle 21 - OVER 42.5 Houston 13 Baltimore 20 - UNDER 33

N.Y. Jets 28 New England 21 - OVER 45 N.Y. Giants 37 Green Bay 20 - OVER 54
2012 (OVER 4-0) 2013 (UNDER 3-1)

Baltimore 38 Denver 35 - OVER 44 New Orleans 15 Seattle 23 - UNDER 44

Green Bay 31 San Francisco 45 - OVER 45 Indianapolis 22 New England 43 - OVER 51

Seattle 28 Atlanta 30 - OVER 46 San Francisco 23 Carolina 10 - UNDER 41

Houston 28 New England 41 - OVER 50.5 San Diego 17 Denver 24 - UNDER 55
2014 (TOTAL 2-2) 2015

New England 35 Baltimore 31 - OVER 47.5 Kansas City at New England

Seattle 31 Carolina 17 - OVER 40 Green Bay at Arizona

Green Bay 26 Dallas 21 - UNDER 52.5 Seattle at Carolina

Indianapolis 24 Denver 13 - UNDER 52.5 Pittsburgh at Denver

Saturday, Jan. 16

Kansas City at New England (CBS, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Of the four game set for this weekend, this game has had the most movement. The opener was sent out at 44 ½ and had dropped to 42 as of Friday morning but the number was starting to push back up to 43.

Due to the key injuries for both teams and the form of the Chiefs, you can see why the ‘under’ received some early action. Kansas City is ranked in scoring defense at 16.9 points per game and when head coach Andy Reid gets a lead, he bleeds the clock like nobody else.

We shouldn’t necessarily dismiss the Chiefs’ 11-game winning streak but some pundits, including myself, question the competition. Kansas City hasn’t played a quarterback even close to Tom Brady during this run and the Chiefs haven’t played a comparable defense like the Patriots (19.7 PPG).

What does impress me about KC is its ability to score on the road. The Chiefs are averaging 29.1 PPG and that includes a 45-point effort in a neutral based game from London.

New England has looked sluggish the last two weeks of the regular season, partly due to injuries across the offensive line and in the receiving corps. The offense averaged 15 PPG and they dropped both games, which were on the road.

At home, New England averaged 31.6 PPG this season and it’s had two weeks to get ready for the Chiefs. How healthy they are is a major question mark but you can’t ignore what the Patriots have done the last four years at home in the Divisional Playoffs.

2015 – New England 35 Baltimore 31
2014 – New England 43 Indianapolis 22
2013 - New England 41 Houston 28
2012 – New England 45 Denver 10

As of Friday, New England has 12 players listed as ‘questionable’ and while most are expected to go, they’re obviously banged up. The Chiefs are the healthier of the two but the status and health of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (ankle) remains a big question mark.

If Maclin can’t go, Chiefs QB Alex Smith could go into check down mode and that’s better for the ‘under’ but make a note that the gunslinger has a 10-1 TD/INT in four playoff games and his teams (49ers, Chiefs) averaged 31.8 PPG.

These teams met last season and KC posted a 41-14 victory at home and the ‘over’ (45 ½) connected.

New England has watched the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 at home this season while the Chiefs enter this game with a 5-3-1 ‘over’ mark on the road.

Fearless Prediction: When I first saw the line on this game, I felt that the Chiefs were the play because New England is usually laying at least a touchdown at home in the playoffs. The last time it occurred was in 2010 and Baltimore won 33-14 as a four-point road underdog. Déjà vu at Foxboro? I’m buying it and for our purposes, I’m taking the Kansas City Team Total Over 19 and Over 43 for the game as well.

Green Bay at Arizona (NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The highest total (49 ½) on the board this weekend takes place in the desert and it’s hard to argue against the ‘over’ in this spot. Arizona is ranked first in total offense (408 YPG), second in scoring (30.6 PPG) and it will be facing a Packers defense (20.1 PPG) that is statistically the worst unit left in the playoffs.

The Cardinals lit up the Packers 38-8 in Week 16 at home and the ‘under’ (50.5) cashed in that game. Arizona led 17-0 at halftime and the game changed late in the second quarter as Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was picked off in the Cardinals end zone when the game was 10-0. In the second-half, Arizona posted a pair of back-to-back touchdowns and wound up sacking Rodgers eight times.

Rodgers followed up that loss by laying another egg at home in Week 17 versus Minnesota but he looked sharp in last week’s Wild Card win albeit against the Redskins defense, which is far from great. The Packers picked up the pace a bit last week and most believe they’ll continue to push the tempo in this spot, provided they’re executing.

Green Bay does lose WR Davante Adams to injury this week but does get the services of left tackle David Bakhtiari back and he’s a huge upgrade.

Defensively, the ‘Skins moved the ball on the Packers early but left points off the board and probably should’ve been up 16-0 early. Despite last week’s game going ‘over’ the number, Green Bay has seen the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season but five of the ‘over’ tickets have cashed on the road.

Arizona has leaned slightly to the high side (9-7) this season but the ‘under’ closed on a 5-1 run. The Cardinals have run the ball extremely well at times this season and part of me believes head coach Bruce Arians might try to establish this on Saturday, especially with QB Carson Palmer’s lack of playoff experience.

Even if he starts off slow, it's hard to imagine Palmer being handcuffed for long. Arizona has advantages on offense and it scored 51 touchdowns, plus the defense and special teams added seven scores this season.

Coincidentally these teams met in the 2009-10 playoffs and Arizona held off Green Bay 51-45 in a wild shootout as the ‘over’ (49) easily cashed.

While all signs point to a shootout, make a note at the above table and check out the games with totals listed in the fifties. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 the last four games with numbers this high and I’m guessing this total closes in that neighborhood on Saturday.

Fearless Prediction: Arizona is receiving a lot of “Teaser” action this week but I’m expecting a bunch of folks to play the Packers-Over combo, especially if Arizona goes to -7 ½ at most shops. I’m tossing out what Green Bay did last week and focusing on its outcomes against quality opponents (Top 4 seeds). The Packers gave up 29, 37 and 38 to the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals respectively. With that being said, I’m buying Arizona Team Total Over 29. For those looking at the 'over' in the game, make a note that the 'under' went 31-21 in primetime games this season and that includes last week's result between the Bengals and Steelers.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Sunday
January 15, 2016

Sunday’s Divisional Playoff action features a pair of rematches from this year’s regular season and three of the four teams have been familiar with the second round of the postseason recently.

Denver will be playing in its fifth straight Divisional Playoff game and the ‘over’ has gone 2-2 in the previous four while the Broncos are just 1-3 straight up.

Seattle beat Carolina 31-17 in this round last year and the ‘over’ (40) connected with a late fourth quarter surge. This will be the fourth straight Divisional Playoff game for the ‘Hawks and just the second time they’re on the road. The lone road game during this span watched them lose 30-28 at Atlanta in the 2012-13 playoffs.

Along with the aforementioned result, the Panthers played in the 2013-14 Divisional Playoff round and lost 23-10 at home to San Francisco.

Pittsburgh hasn’t advanced this far in the postseason since the 2010-11 season and it defeated Baltimore 31-24. The ‘over’ cashed in that game and is 3-1 in the last four Divisional Playoff appearances for Pittsburgh.

Some bettors and handicappers don’t buy into trends and you can understand why sometimes due to other key factors such as injuries, which is what Pittsburgh is dealing with on Sunday.

Sunday, Jan. 17

Seattle at Carolina (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Most shops sent this total out at 44 and its held steady all week. There’s a chance of some rain in Charlotte but temperatures are expected in the mid-forties and not too much wind (5 to 10 mph).

Carolina enters this game with the best scoring offense in the league (31.2 points per game) and it’s been better lighting up the scoreboard at home (33 PPG) than anybody too. Seattle was held in check last week at Minnesota to 10 points, which was its lowest output of the season.

Was that weather related or is Minnesota’s defense that good? The temperatures played a factor and the Vikings unit is solid but Carolina’s unit was statistically greater in total yards (322 YPG) and just behind them in scoring (19.2 PPG).

Prior to being stifled in the Wild Card round, QB Russell Wilson and company closed the season by scoring 29-plus points in seven of their final eight games. On the road, the team averaged 36.6 PPG in three games during this offensive run.

While the ‘Hawks offense has been great, the defense has been better. They’ve held five of their last six opponents to 13 points or less and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1. Seattle’s defense (285 YPG) ranked second in total yards and first in points allowed (16.8).

In the first meeting between the pair in mid-October from CenturyLink Field, the Panthers dropped the Seahawks 27-23 and this game was on an ‘under’ pace as Seattle led 10-7 at halftime. Carolina had more yards (383-334) and first downs (25-14) in the game but the biggest difference for the Panthers was red zone touchdowns (3-1). Make a note that Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham (8 receptions, 140 yards) had his best game of the season in the loss and he’s done for the season due to an injury.

Will the ‘Hawks be able to convert in the second go ‘round on the road? Their last three trips to Carolina resulted in wins and ‘under’ tickets with the winning touchdown being scored in the fourth quarter of all three victories.

2014 – Seattle 13 Carolina 9 UNDER 44.5
2013 – Seattle 12 Carolina 7 UNDER 44.5
2012 – Seattle 16 Carolina 12 UNDER 42.5

There is no doubt that Carolina is much improved and QB Cam Newton is the likely MVP of the regular season. His crazy numbers were the main reason that the Panthers were the second-best ‘over’ team in the league this season with a 10-5-1 record and that included a 5-2-1 mark at Bank of America Stadium.

However, it’s hard to forget that Newton is 1-2 all-time in the playoffs and his TD-INT ratio is 5:5. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions: In last week’s installment, I touched briefly on Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch and how he might screw up the offensive chemistry. He didn’t play but he’s expected to suit up Sunday and I’m going to guess that he’ll silence everybody this weekend. Seattle is 2-0 this year when he touches the rock 20 times or more, the victories by 20-3 and 13-12. In playoff games with the ‘Hawks, the club is 5-1 when he gets over 100 yards and you can probably figure out the loss (SBXLIX). In these six games, Seattle has averaged 27 PPG. I’m buying Seattle Team Total Over 21 on Sunday and Over 44 for the game as well.

Pittsburgh at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)

The total on this game is hovering between 39 and 40 points and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop by kickoff. The Steelers won’t have wide receiver Antonio Brown or running back DeAngelo Williams available, plus quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is ‘questionable’ but dealing with a serious shoulder injury.

If all three were healthy, you’d be staring at a total in the mid-forties maybe higher since QB Peyton Manning is back under center for Denver and Pittsburgh’s defense is very suspect, especially if they can’t get pressure on the quarterback.

The Steelers beat the Broncos 34-27 in Week 14 at home but Denver led 27-13 at halftime and backup QB Brock Osweler lit them up for 296 yards and three touchdowns. Big Ben got his too (380 yards, 3 TDs) but Brown compiled a monster game (16 receptions, 189 yards, 2 TDs) against Denver.

Denver’s defense didn’t have a great day versus Pittsburgh but it’s only allowing 18.5 PPG at home and it enters this game very healthy. The Broncos watched the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 at home this season and the Steelers enter this game with an 11-6 record to the ‘under’ and that includes a 7-2 mark on the road.

Including the result from this past December, the ‘over’ has cashed in three straight meetings between the pair and eight of the last 10 going back to 1997. The last playoff encounter between the two teams took place in the 2011-12 playoffs and Tim Tebow helped Denver beat Pittsburgh 29-23 in overtime at home.

Since Manning arrived in Denver, the club is 2-2 at home in the playoffs and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those games. Mike Tomlin ‘over’ record with Pittsburgh in the playoffs stands at 8-1-1 in 10 games after last week’s ‘under’ result versus Cincinnati.

Fearless Predictions: Everybody is expecting Denver to rip a short-handed Pittsburgh squad and it very well could. However, when Big Ben missed four games in the regular season the defense for the Steelers stepped up and only allowed an average of 19.8 PPG and that includes a 13-point effort against a quality Arizona squad. In four home games with Peyton starting at QB, Denver only averaged 21 PPG. I think this game will be tighter than expected and the Broncos struggle offensively. With that being said, I’m leaning Denver Team Total Under 24 in this game.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - DP
January 15, 2016

Divisional Playoffs

Las Vegas sports books haven't even seen 10 percent of the action they'll take in over the weekend in the four NFL divisional playoff games, but early indications show it’s going to be a teaser kind of weekend for bettors.

And why not?

The spreads on the games are perfect for the teaser with a couple of 7’s and a few dogs crossing key numbers. Best of all for teaser bettors is they have some recent history on their sound during this round. How does the all-way side teaser going 7-1 in the Divisional Playoff round last year sound? How about 19-5 in the past three years?

The sports books set some nice numbers where all eight remaining teams usually play to their true ratings. The reflection of how good those numbers are is what happens if you add 6-points to each side. Last season three of the four divisional games were all-way side winners.

Can you imagine that? Just walking to the betting counter this week and saying, "I’m betting the line is perfect and I’ll take both the Patriots and Chiefs in a 6-point teaser." Then the Patriots win 20-16, and you cash. Don’t try that, really, it’s not a strong betting move, but it’s an example of what has been happening lately in this round. These spreads are tight.

The one spread that still has some loose ends is Sunday’s game with Pittsburgh at Denver, where most sports books kept the game off the board all week until posting Broncos -7 on Friday. Will Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) play? That is the main question.

"We didn’t post a line until today (Friday) on the Denver game because there was too much uncertainty with the Steelers key performers," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. "Antonio Brown is now out, Roethlisberger hasn’t thrown a pass in practice yet (through Thursday) and (DeAngelo) Williams is likely out. That’s basically their entire offensive attack in limbo."

Osborne is still waiting on any Roethlisberger news, but posted Denver -7 (no total) Friday without the news just because of all the weekend action that has started to heat up. It’s the NFL playoffs. People are excited and they want to bet all the games.

CG Technology books have been playing the wait and see game with Pittsburgh while posting a number for low limits -- wise guys get only $1,000. They were one of the few books in town in town with a number posted all week.

"We opened Denver at -6 on Monday knowing there we’re lots of injury issues surrounding the Steelers and we we’re steady at -6.5 for most of the week and got mostly Denver money," said Jason Simbal, VP of risk management for CG Technology.

"So we moved to -7 on Thursday, then when Brown was ruled out Friday we moved to -7 -120 and then someone immediately took +7 EVEN, so we’re down -7 -115 now."

Low limits or not, CG Tech books have already established that they’ll need Pittsburgh on Sunday with their small sample size of action. They have the total posted at 39.5, along with the Westgate SuperBook and Coast Casinos.

The big news Simbal and every Las Vegas sports book is waiting for is how Roethlisberger looked in Friday’s practice, and most of all whether or not he even threw a pass. He participated in Thursday’s practice, but only practiced hand-offs and didn’t throw.

"Initially, I was thinking the Broncos would be -9.5 if Ben doesn’t play, but combined with Brown being OUT and Williams most likely OUT, that deserves to be represented more in the number, so I’m looking at -10 or -10.5 if Ben doesn’t play," said Simbal.

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White said the drop off from Roethlisberger to back-up quarterback Landry Jones is worth about 5-points to the number.

Brown isn’t quite worth a full point, but as the best receiver in the game he’s worth about an eighth of a point. White also said Peyton Manning is an upgrade of almost 3-points over Brock Osweiler, so when looking at the number of Broncos -7, it’s almost a halfway Big Ben in/out number. If everyone was healthy, Denver might have started about -5.

Sunday's early game features the No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense and the number has been on a roller coaster ride.

"The game we’ve had the most fun with booking this week has been Carolina and Seattle," said Simbal. "We opened Carolina -1.5 (Sunday night) and we had some large wagers lay it and also lay -2. But when we got +3, we started seeing large action come back on Seattle taking us back down to where we started."

It’s not unusual to see sophisticated betting groups seed an early point-spread at a few books around town to help set the market hoping other books follow and then they can come back strong at many more books at the optimal number, which in this case was getting Seattle +3.

"We just don’t want the game to land ’3’. We started at -3 and we’re at -1.5 now," said Osborne, who doesn’t want to get sided.

Many books opened the Panthers money-line at -150 (+130 on Seattle) and it’s down as low as -125/+105. The total is consistent at 44.

The CG Tech books also have another rooting interest in the Panthers game because of their stance on Super Bowl futures.

"We do extremely well with the Panthers (+430) to win the Super Bowl. It‘s our best decision," said Simbal. Hardly anyone had been betting them during the season, while Seattle (+430) has been the most popular to where they are our biggest risk."

The Patriots opened as 5-point home favorites over the Chiefs for Saturday's early game and that number has dropped to -4.5.

"We’re seeing equal action on straight bets and parlays with the Patriots and Chiefs," said Osborne. "The big thing that stands out on this game is the Chiefs money line (+190) and also teasers with the Chiefs."

The casual teaser bettor might say, "what's wrong with taking +10.5 with Kansas City on an 11-game win streak while our last image of the Patriots in action was getting outgained by 242 yards at Miami in a 20-10 loss when home field was at stake. Plus, how's Rob Gronkowski doing?"

The Cardinals are 7-point home favorites over the Packerson Saturday night, and its been the most steady number of the week.

"Parlays and straight bets are down the middle with the Cardinals and Packers, but were loaded on Cardinals teaser action," said Osborne, who Friday dropped the total from the opening number of 50 down to 49.5.

"Our biggest teaser risk of the weekend so far is with Denver and Arizona," said Simbal.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ben practices, still questionable
January 15, 2016

PITTSBURGH (AP) Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw in practice on Friday but remains questionable for Sunday's AFC divisional playoff game against Denver.

Roethlisberger is dealing with a sprained right shoulder sustained in last weekend's wild-card win over Cincinnati. Roethlisberger was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday but was a full participant in the final major workout before the Steelers face the Broncos.

Coach Mike Tomlin says Roethlisberger did everything he was asked on Friday.

While the team remains optimistic Roethlisberger will play, wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back DeAngelo Williams are officially out. Brown is still going through the NFL's concussion protocol after getting hurt in the final moments against the Bengals. Williams will miss a second straight week with an injured right foot.

[StarDust Bum]

I HAD KC AND THE UNDER IN THE FIRST GAME.........

SATURDAY, JANUARY 16

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at ARI 08:15 PM

ARI -7.5 BEST BET

U 49.5 BEST BET