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**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2016, 12:54 AM

Coaching Carousel Update
January 1, 2016

BLACK MONDAY LOOMS IN NFL

The day after the regular season concludes has earned the title "Black Monday" because so many coaches have had the axe fall upon them on that very day over the years. This season should be no different, as sources say up to a dozen NFL mentors could be in trouble when the regular season concludes.

A couple of teams, however, beat "Black Monday" to the punch when announcing their intentions before this weekend's final regular-season games. Those include the Eagles, whose owner Jeffrey Lurie gave HC Chip Kelly his pink slip on Tuesday, and the Jags, taking an opposite stance when owner Shad Khan announced that under-fire HC Gus Bradley would return in 2016.

In Kelly's case, season-long disappointment had reached untenable levels in recent home losses to the Cardinals and Redskins that knocked the Birds out of the playoff picture, with each of those teams clinching their division titles on the Eagles' turf! Kelly, who in the offseason had won an organizational struggle with Howie Roseman for control of the team's personnel decisions, would swing and miss on most of his many roster moves and free-agent signings. Pressure mounted throughout the regular season to the point where Lurie had decided he was not going to let Kelly keep both a personnel and coaching role into the future.

Sources say that when Kelly balked at the idea of relinquishing any power earlier this week, Lurie quickly decided to cut the cord. Also out in Philly is Ed Marynowitz, whom Kelly had enlisted to run the Eagles' personnel department. Ex-Bills and Steelers GM Tom Donahoe was named the new senior director of player personnel, but it is expected that none other than Roseman will re-emerge in a supremo role. Lurie also reportedly wanted to get a head start at finding a replacement for Kelly, though he cannot contact NFL assistants until midnight on Sunday after the regular season concludes.

As for Jacksonville, Bradley entered this season (his third) not with a must-win edict, but rather an improve-or-else order from owner Khan, who has pulled a quick trigger before with his coaches in other sports (running three managers out in his first season as owner of EPL Fulham) and was said to be growing a bit impatient. Though the Jags were officially eliminated from the playoff picture last week, their 5-10 mark does qualify as progress from last year's 3-13 and has bought Bradley, who reportedly has the support of his players, another season. Expect 2016 to be a "playoffs or bust" campaign for Bradley, though unlike Kelly, Bradley at least knows where he will be working next season.

Elsewhere there are plenty of "Black Monday"-related storylines to note. Before the regular season concludes and all heck breaks loose next Monday, a quick review is in order of those teams we believe have coaching situations possibly "in play" beginning next week.

Rex Ryan, Buffalo...Though not near the top of the list, there are some sources who believe Ryan might be in a bit of trouble after a disappointing debut season with the Bills. In his usual blustery manner, Ryan predicted a playoff berth for his new team, but nobody expected one of the NFL's best defenses to tail off dramatically under Ryan, whose schemes and alignments proved a poor fit for the personnel as Buffalo's defensive numbers would drop sharply this season. One of Ryan's loudest critics has been DE Mario Williams, almost certain to be released at the end of the season, though the fact there is apparent internal dismay in the clubhouse is a red flag for Ryan, whose Jets teams, especially in his earlier years in New York, were unfailingly supportive of their coach. New owners Terry and Kim Pegula are apparently dismayed at developments and the fact the team regressed from last season under Doug Marrone, as Ryan was not hired to oversee a rebuilding project...he was expected to win right off the bat. And while Ryan's early ouster looms as unlikely, Rexy can sure help his cause greatly by beating his old employer Jets this weekend to not only keep them out of the playoffs but also to get the Bills to .500. Ryan's chances to survive: 99%. (Note: Bills announced Thursday that Ryan would return in 2016.)

Mike Pettine, Cleveland...The Brownies entered the final weekend with a 3-17 mark over their last 20 games and with no indication that things are going to be improving anytime soon. Worse for Pettine is that his supposed defensive expertise has not translated to his team, which ranks near the bottom of NFL stats. Pettine has not been helped by the circus that seems to follow second-year Johnny Manziel, who has hardly looked like a franchise QB and now might have another issue to deal with (a new and apparently damning video during Christmas week) before the regular-season finale vs. the Steelers. Owner Jimmy Haslam is notoriously impatient, though after so much turnover in recent years, sources say Haslam might be a bit reluctant to hit the eject button on both Pettine and GM Ray Farmer. If one has to go, most believe it would be Farmer, though there is still a very good chance that Haslam cleans house again and dismisses them both. Pettine's chances to survive: 30%

Jason Garrett, Dallas...The new name to pop up on the list over the past week, as sources say Jerry Jones is not going to automatically give Garrett a mulligan for the Cowboys' 2015 collapse in the wake of QB Tony Romo's injuries. Jones has hinted as much in recent interviews, and sources say ol' Jer became especially incensed in recent weeks when watching his former backup, the released Brandon Weeden, who could not win a game as starter in relief of Romo in the first half of the season, steer the Texans to two important December wins. And that Houston would win games with four different QBs and put itself in position to steal the AFC South in a down year for the division, much as this season was in the NFC East. Of course, Jones can blame himself for not better fortifying the Dallas QB situation behind Romo, but now he might be changing his mind about Garrett, long Jones' fair-haired boy, but suddenly, and apparently quickly, falling out of favor. Sources say the situation to watch might be with New Orleans' Sean Payton, who once worked in Dallas and could be high on Jones' list. A Garrett dismissal (which would reportedly cost the Cowboys more than $20 million in a buy-out) might have to come in conjunction with being able to pry Payton away from the Saints. That scenario is a lot less far-fetched now than it seemed a month ago. Garrett's chances to survive: 55%.

Jim Caldwell, Detroit..One month ago we wouldn't have given Caldwell much, if any, chance to survive. Now there appears to be a scenario that might grant Caldwell a reprieve, based mostly upon the Lions' late-season rally that has seen them win 5 of 7 and come oh-so-close to 6 of 7 had they not allowed the Packers to complete a Hail Mary on the final play of the Dec. 3 game at Ford Field. Remember, 90-year-old franchise matriarch Martha Ford pushed her son Bill out of the way not long ago and began to wield the axe indiscriminately at midseason in what appeared to be stage one of a major housecleaning, jettisoning GM Martin Mayhew and team prexy Tom Lewand. Meanwhile, Caldwell also changed staff at about the same time, including the promotion of Jim Bob Cooter to offensive coordinator, which has resulted in an upgrade of Matthew Stafford's numbers. Caldwell is hardly out of the woods yet, but Mrs. Ford is said to be fond of him, and another win on Sunday at Chicago would get the Lions to 7-9, which looked very unlikely when the team was sitting at 1-7 at midseason. Caldwell's fate will still likely be determined by the new GM hire, supposedly coming soon. For that reason, Caldwell's status will likely not be determined until sometime after Black Monday. Caldwell's chances to survive: 40%.

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis...Pagano was on the hot seat from the outset this season after rejecting a series of one-year contract extensions and betting on himself to earn a multi-year deal at the conclusion of the campaign. Though Pagano could not have predicted QB Andrew Luck's injury woes, the former Stanford star was not having a vintage season before he was KO'd, and Pagano's game management came under question during an ominously slow start to the campaign. Indy has hung in there with backup QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst (and perhaps the just-signed Josh Freeman for this coming weekend), but if the Colts miss the playoffs, owner Jim Irsay is likely to make Pagano the scapegoat, even after playoff appearances his first three years on the job. Pagano's chances to survive: 25%.

Dan Campbell, Miami...Though one can never tell what owner Stephen Ross might do after granting Joe Philbin an ill-advised extra season at the end of 2014 and unwittingly setting in motion the sequence of events (including Philbin's dismissal after four games) that doomed 2015 in Miami, most sources believe interim HC Campbell, only 4-7 since taking over (and that 4-7 includes two impressive wins out of the chute), is going to be a definite Black Monday casualty. (Some believe Campbell could be invited to stay on staff, but he will almost certainly have his HC title removed.) Miami has been mentioned as one of the possible destinations for Sean Payton, should he leave the Saints. Another situation to watch with the Dolphins is with GM Dennis Hickey, who could be out along with Campbell, and there perhaps could be trouble for football operations director Mike Tannenbaum, though he seems the least likely of the three to be on the chopping block. Campbell's chances to survive: 5%.

Sean Payton, New Orleans...No coach potentially would disrupt the market as Payton, rumored for months to be receptive to a move of address. Payton still has two more years left on his deal with the Saints, so some sort of arrangement would have to be arrived at before he takes another job, but sources say Payton might believe the Saints' window has closed and that the contract situation of vet QB Drew Brees (who is slated to cause a 2016 cap hit of nearly $30 million, which includes his 2016 base plus past salary that was converted to a signing bonus that will count against the 2016 cap) makes a quick rebuild for New Orleans (which needs enormous upgrades defensively) extremely difficult. Payton has been said to be intrigued by the possibilities with the Chargers, but sources also say to keep an eye on the Colts, Dolphins, Titans, all with young QBs as possible high-grade students for Payton, or perhaps the Giants, who might be willing to make a splash, or reuniting with the Cowboys. Evidently, the Saints' recent subpar form over the past two seasons has not diminished the potential market for Payton, who has won just two playoff games since his 2009 team won the Super Bowl. Because Payton, should he leave New Orleans, will be almost certainly doing so on his own accord, we categorize his future prospects not as "survival," but rather chances to move. Payton's chances to move: 50%.

Tom Coughlin, NY Giants...Already on notice earlier this season from co-owner John Mara that a playoff berth was going to be expected, Coughlin's days at MetLife Stadium now seem numbered after a disturbing collapse in the second half of the campaign will keep the G-Men out of the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. Many believe the 69-year-old Coughlin might have been due to retire at the end of this 2015 term regardless, and he could spare team brass the awkwardness of a dismissal by simply announcing his retirement. Though maybe not, as Coughlin has another year on his contract and might not want to walk away without some sort of compensation for 2016. Many believe there is also a good chance that GM Jerry Reese walks the plank as well. Whatever, it seems like all of the goodwill built up from the Giants' magic Super Bowl seasons of 2007 & '11 is about to expire. Coughlin's chances to survive: 15%.

Jeff Fisher, St. Louis...With the Rams making a belated run at .500 and with two victories over the defending NFC champ Seahawks, some believe Fisher might have bought himself another year after looking ready to walk the plank a month ago. Still, the team has not made much progress in Fisher's four seasons, and this appeared to be a year in which there was room to surge in the NFC West with the 49ers dropping off of the map and Seattle regressing. There is also the matter of the franchise's possible relocation to Los Angeles. Working in Fisher's favor might be that he oversaw a similar franchise shift when the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee in 1997, plus the fact Fisher once starred as a defensive back in college at USC (where secondary mates included Ronnie Lott and Dennis Smith). Working against Fisher in the same scenario might be that owner Stan Kroenke would prefer to start fresh with a new coach and new regime if the franchise indeed relocates. Fisher's chances to survive: 60%.

Mike McCoy, San Diego...The Chargers have continued to play hard for McCoy, but the situation has nonetheless unraveled for the Bolts, sitting at an embarrassing 4-11 heading into the final week, even with QB Philip Rivers posting some of the best numbers of his career. A recent extension for GM Tom Telesco could be seen as a positive development since Telesco hired McCoy, but it's not like the team was offering McCoy the same deal. There is belief that McCoy has support internally, but with a move to Los Angeles potentially looming, anything is possible here, and the Spanos family has been unpredictable with these sorts of matters in the past. McCoy's chances to survive: 45%

Jim Tomsula, San Francisco...Tomsula cannot be solely held to blame for the downturn in 49er fortunes, a decline that can be traced to the club's ownership and front office. Yet Tomsula and his staff (which has come under criticism the entire year in the Bay Area) have not been able to get the team to punch above its weight, as the dramatic downgrade from a Super Bowl contender from as recently as two years ago has been almost breathtaking. The Niners opted to stay in-house and hired loyal solider Tomsula (who had succeeded Jim Harbaugh predecessor Mike Singletary for one game as interim HC at the end of the 2010 season) when they had chances to tab the likes of Adam Gase and Vic Fangio (both now on John Fox's Chicago staff), and some are not ruling out the front office revisiting those mistakes. It is also possible that owner Jed York says goodbye to general manager Trent Baalke instead of Tomsula. Tomsula's chances to survive: 50%.

Mike Mularkey, Tennessee...Mularkey is supposedly well-liked by the Titan organization (itself still in flux since the passing of owner Bud Adams a few years ago), but at 2-6 since relieving Ken Whisenhunt and badly beaten in several losses, there seems little chance that Mularkey sticks around. Of course, the sudden availability of Chip Kelly has the rumor mill whirring in Nashville, as the Titans appear to be a very possible landing spot for Kelly, who would get a chance to coach his old college QB from Oregon, Marcus Mariota, the quintessential fit for the Kelly style of offense that Chip never had in Philadelphia. Mularkey's chances to survive: 5%.

As always, stay tuned.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2016, 12:56 AM

AFC Wild Card Notes
January 3, 2016

Saturday, January 9

AFC – Kansas City at Houston

Opening Line: Chiefs -3, 40 ½

Kansas City Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Houston Home Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in the opening week of the season as the Chiefs held off the Texans at NRG Stadium, 27-20 to cash as one-point favorites. Kansas City jumped out to a 27-9 halftime lead and never looked back as quarterback Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns, including two touchdown strikes to tight end Travis Kelce.

Playoff Notes: Houston returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2012 when the Texans were eliminated at New England in the divisional round, 41-28. The Texans have won both of their home playoff games in franchise history, beating Cincinnati in the Wild Card round in 2011 and 2012. Kansas City last appeared in the postseason in 2013, blowing a 28-point lead in a stunning 45-44 defeat at Indianapolis in the Wild Card round. The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since 1993, losing eight straight in the postseason, including three in a row on the road.

Total Notes: Kansas City posted an 8-7-1 record to the ‘over’ this season, including five ‘overs’ away from Arrowhead Stadium. Houston also put together an 8-7-1 ‘over’ mark, even though the Texans went 4-2 to the ‘under’ in the final six contests. The Texans cashed five ‘unders’ at NRG Stadium, while allowing three of their final five opponents at home to six points.

Sunday, January 10

AFC – Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Opening Line: Steelers -2, 46 ½

Pittsburgh Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Cincinnati Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The road team won each of the two meetings this season, as the Steelers knocked off the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 14 by a 33-20 count. Andy Dalton’s season ended that day as the Bengals’ quarterback broke his right thumb attempting to make a tackle following an interception. Steelers’ running back DeAngelo Williams scored two touchdowns in that victory, but he is listed as questionable for the Wild Card game with a sprained ankle.

Playoff Notes: The Bengals have lost four Wild Card games in each of the past four seasons, although three of those defeats came on the highway. Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh in the 2005 Wild Card round at home, 31-17, as the Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl that season. The Bengals are mired in a long postseason drought, last capturing a playoff win back in 1990. The Steelers are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in Mike Tomlin’s coaching tenure, as Pittsburgh was tripped up at home by Baltimore last season 30-17 in the Wild Card round. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010, while losing its last road postseason contest at Denver in overtime in 2011.

Total Notes: Cincinnati cashed the ‘under’ nine times this season, including an 8-2 mark to the ‘under’ in the final 10 games. The Steelers began the season at 7-2 to the ‘under’ the first nine games, followed by a 4-2 run to the ‘over’ to finish the season. Pittsburgh compiled a 6-2 mark to the ‘under’ away from Heinz Field, while cashing the ‘over’ in five of the last seven visits to Cincinnati.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2016, 12:58 AM

Carolina and Denver wrap up No. 1 seeds for playoffs
January 4, 2016

Carolina closed out its remarkable season by wrapping up home-field advantage in the NFC. Denver turned to Peyton Manning to take advantage of New England's slip-up in the AFC. And Rex Ryan made certain to continue the New York Jets' playoff drought.

Carolina and Denver wrapped up the No. 1 playoff seeds in each conference by winning at home on the final day of the regular season on Sunday. Carolina routed Tampa Bay 38-10, while Denver edged San Diego 27-20 to win the AFC West title.

''We find our edge playing in front of the home crowd,'' Carolina QB Cam Newton said. ''Everything here feels just right. We don't have travel to a hostile environment. This is our house - and it's hostile.''

New England will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC after losing at Miami, while Arizona will have the other bye in the NFC despite getting routed 36-6 by Seattle.

Denver's victory finally settled the AFC playoff picture. Cincinnati is the No. 3 seed and will host AFC North rival Pittsburgh in a wild-card game on Saturday night, while AFC South champion Houston is the No. 4 seed and will host Kansas City, winners of 10 straight games. The Texans and Chiefs will play the first game of the playoffs on Saturday afternoon.

New England will host the early game on Saturday, Jan. 16, with Denver hosting the lowest remaining AFC seed in the late game on Sunday, Jan. 17.

The NFC playoff picture was settled late Sunday night when Minnesota beat Green Bay 20-13 to win the NFC North. The Vikings will host Seattle in the early game Sunday, while Green Bay will travel to NFC East champion Washington for the late Sunday game. The Redskins closed the season with their fourth straight win on Sunday beating Dallas.

Arizona will host the late game on Saturday, Jan. 16, while the Panthers will host the lowest remaining seed in the NFC in the early game on Sunday, Jan. 17.

The highlight of the day was Ryan and the Buffalo Bills stopping the Jets from making the playoffs and gave the Steelers the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Bills beat the Jets 22-17, while Pittsburgh knocked off Cleveland 28-12, the only results that would have gotten the Steelers into the postseason. The Jets have not made the playoffs since 2010.

''I've got a lot of friends over there, and I want them to be successful, but not at my expense,'' Ryan said.

Ryan has plenty of friends in the Steel City now.

''A lot of thanks to coach Ryan and the rest of the Bills and everybody in Buffalo,'' Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said. ''I know they're excited about 8-8 and we're excited they got us in.''

New England had a chance at home field in the AFC, but flopped in Miami getting beat 20-10. Denver struggled in the first half against San Diego before inserting Manning in place of Brock Osweiler at quarterback and holding on late for the seven-point victory.

''Wherever we play, we play,'' Patriots coach Bill Belichick said.

Houston also clinched the AFC South with its win over Jacksonville and will host Kansas City after the Chiefs beat Oakland for their 10th straight victory.

Houston avoided the headache of possibly having to look at eight different tiebreakers against the Colts by beating Jacksonville 30-6 to win the AFC South, making Indianapolis' victory over Tennessee moot. The Colts entered the day with the slimmest of chances to win the division, but a Texans loss was needed. Houston is the fourth seed.

''We are not happy with just winning the AFC South,'' Houston wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins said. ''There are bigger goals ahead of us.''

Seattle rebounded from last week's loss at home against St. Louis with one of its most dominant victories of the season, winning big at Arizona. The Seahawks led 30-6 at halftime and won for the sixth time in seven games. It'll be their second trip to Minnesota in about a month. Seattle beat the Vikings 38-7 on Dec. 6.

''These guys are confident that we can go wherever we got to go,'' Seattle coach Pete Carroll said.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2016, 10:45 AM

NFL Wildcard Weekend opens with three of four road teams favored

Kansas City is one of three of four road teams that are favored on Wildcard Weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Wildcard weekend opens in Houston with the Texans hosting the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 10 straight games and opened as three-point road favorites. The total opened at 41.

The Chiefs were 7-3 ATS during their 10 game win streak, but were just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Meanwhile the Texans were 5-3 ATS at home and closed the season going 3-0 SU/ATS.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

In the second AFC Wildcard matchup, Cincinnati hosts rival Pittsburgh and with Bengals' starting quarterback Andy Dalton's status uncertain, the Steelers have opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 46.5.

The AFC North foes split the two games this season with Cincy winning in Week 8 16-10 in a game that closed as a Pick and Pittsburgh taking the Week 14 33-20 as 1-point dogs. The games went 1-1 O/U.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday's Wildcard action kicks off in Minnesota, with two of the leagues hottest teams clash when the Seahawks visit the Vikings.

While it was Minnesota who went into Lambeau Field to take the NFC North crown from the Packers, it is the Seahawks who open as 3.5-point road favorites.

Seattle heads into the game covering six of the last seven games, including a 36-6 thumping of division rival Arizona in Week 17, while Minny was one of the NFL's best bets this season at 13-3 ATS. Seattle did go into Minnesota and thrash the Vikings 38-7 as 2.5-point faves in Week 12.

Green Bay Packers at Washington

Washington, perhaps surprisingly, opens as the lone home favorite in the final game of Wildcard weekend, hitting the board at -1 against visiting Green Bay. The total opened at 46.

Washington enters the game winner of four straight games SU and ATS, going over in each game. Meanwhile the Packers head into the playoffs losers of two in a row SU/ATS, getting outscored 58-21 in the process.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-05-2016, 02:01 AM

Handicapping the Top Seeds
January 4, 2016

Rest vs. Rust
As the playoffs begin, those who earned the top two seeds in each conference have a key edge, as they get a bye the first week while watching the others duke it out. Sitting at home this past weekend were the Patriots, Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals.

Why is that significant?

A year ago the four bye teams were the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers, going 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS.

Green Bay missed covering by one-point while the Pats and Seahawks (31-17) rolled. Incidentally, Seattle beat Carolina as -13-point chalk.

Two years ago the top teams were the Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks and Panthers. The top AFC teams met in the title game, while Seattle went on to win the Super Bowl over Denver.

Gaining the bye is an advantage for teams to not only rest injured players, but to have two weeks to put together a game plan.

Since 1990, 38 first and second round seeds have filled 50 Super Bowl slots and the No. 1 and 2 seeds, rested after the bye, have gone 66-22 straight up in their first games in the divisional round.

The last four years the rested teams have gone 12-4 SU, though just 6-10 ATS. Last year Denver lost at home to the Colts, while the Patriots had a scare against Baltimore, 35-31 as -7 chalk.

The No. 1 seeded team in six of the last 11 years in the NFC (Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints, Seahawks twice) wound up in the Super Bowl.

In the AFC it's been a different story. New England and Denver have made it in each of the last two years, but then ended a bit of a drought, with the only No. 1 seeds to make it were the 2003, '07, '11 Patriots, the '09 Colts.

Here's a look at the four teams that come into this weekend's playoff games rested with home field.

Patriots: Here they are again! Defending champion New England overcame numerous offensive injuries to cop the No. 2 seed, but stumbled down the stretch losing 4 of 6. Quarterback Tom Brady has top target tight end Rob Gronkowski, but the offense, unlike a year ago, has not been balanced, a pass-heavy attack with a weak offensive line and backup running backs forced to step in.

The defense has been the big story, letting their top two cornerbacks depart from their title team, Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, but Logan Ryan and Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler have been very good. This is also the best defensive front Bill Belichick has had in 10 years, with rookie nose tackle Malcolm Brown and newcomer Jaball Sheard joining a cast of talented, athletic linebackers who have been sack masters.

For totals players, the Pats are 37-18 'over' against the AFC.

Broncos: Changing of the guard? Aging QB Peyton Manning fell off the map with injuries and poor play, so Denver turned to 25-year-old Brock Osweiler with mixed results. The kid has been decent overall, but awful in the red zone. A terrible running game has been one reason, though new coach Gary Kubiak continues to force the run.

There are less concerns with this defense, however, dominant in the AFC from start to finish. It's a veteran unit that can shut down the run and the pass, plus is great at getting after the quarterback. Denver is 34-14 over the total against a team with a winning record. Was it just two years ago Manning had 51 TDs and only 10 picks? Seems more like a hundred years ago.

Panthers: Where did these guys come from? Carolina has had a losing record in three of the last four years, including winning a division title in 2014 despite ending with an 8-9-1 record. On the other hand, they've won three straight NFC South titles, going 12-5 in 2013, so it's not like they've been bad.

But 2015 has been quite a ride, with a dominant defense, minimal injuries, a hot young quarterback and an ability to win in the clutch. They were an underdog once at +7, rallying late to win at Seattle, 27-23, and had close calls with the Colts, Giants and Saints (twice).

The Panthers have been outstanding on offense and on an impressive 10-5-1 run 'over' the total. Carolina is also 18-7-1 ATS after a spread loss. They will be happy to play the no respect card all the way to Super Bowl, where they may even be a dog with a better record than any AFC team.

Cardinals: Arizona overachieved last season despite having to use four quarterbacks. They've been even better this season, as QB Carson Palmer has been outstanding and healthy, with an All-Star cast of WRs in Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Mike Floyd.

The passing attack will be fun to watch in January, while the defense has been rock solid all year against the run and the pass. Arizona is 20-8 ATS against the NFC and 74-36-1 'over' the total after getting 350+ yards the previous game.

This is a well coached team that has a shot to return to the Super Bowl after their near-miss in 2009-10.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-05-2016, 02:04 AM

NFC Wild Card Notes
January 4, 2016

Sunday, January 10

NFC – Seattle at Minnesota – 1:05 p.m. (NBC)

Opening Line: Seattle -3 ½, 40 ½

Seattle Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Minnesota Home Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Seahawks blasted the Vikings 38-7 as three-point road underdogs in Week 13. Seattle opened up a 21-0 halftime lead and outgained Minnesota 433 to 125 yards. Including this win, Seattle is 3-0 versus Minnesota with Russell Wilson at quarterback and all three wins were by double digits. Seattle swept the NFC North this season and is 8-2 in its last 10 versus the division while the Vikings are 2-4 in their last six games versus the NFC West.

Playoff Notes: Seattle is 6-2 in the playoffs with Wilson as quarterback and both losses occurred away from CenturyLink Field, the most recent taking placing in last year’s Super Bowl. The Vikings haven’t played in the postseason since 2012 and are 1-3 in their previous four trips. Minnesota is 1-1 in its last two home playoff games but those results took place indoors at the Metrodome.

Total Notes: The Seahawks watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 this season, which includes a 5-3 mark on the road. Seattle scored 35-plus in its final three road games, which includes the 38-point performance at Minnesota in early December. The Vikings were a great ‘under’ bet (11-4-1) all season. At home, the ‘under’ went 5-3 for Minnesota.

Sunday, January 10

NFC – Green Bay at Washington – 4:40 p.m. (FOX)

Opening Line: Washington -1, 45 ½

Green Bay Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Washington Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams haven’t met since the 2013 regular season and the Packers hammered the Redskins 38-20 as 7 ½-point home favorites. Including this win, Green Bay has gone 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine meetings versus Washington. The Packers have won five of their last seven games (4-3 ATS) versus the NFC East. Meanwhile the Redskins are 3-7 both SU and ATS in their last 10 versus the NFC North with two of the victories coming at home.

Playoff Notes: Since winning Super Bowl XLV over the Steelers in 2011, the Packers have gone 2-4 in the playoffs and that includes a 0-2 road record. That mark includes last year’s 28-22 collapse at Seattle. Washington returns to the postseason for the first time since the 2012 playoffs when it lost at home to the Seahawks, 24-14. The Redskins last playoff win came in 2005 when it defeated the Buccaneers 17-10 on the road and their last home postseason win occurred in 1999 by beating Detroit 27-13 at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium.

Total Notes: The Packers saw the ‘under’ go 11-5 this season but they produced a 4-4 total mark outside of Lambeau Field. The Redskins watched the ‘over’ go 9-7 but the ‘under’ produced a 5-3 record at FedEx Field.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-05-2016, 02:11 AM

NFL ATS

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 29 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+19.1 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in all games
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in all lined games
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+8.7 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in all games
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+8.7 units)

----------------------

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in All games off a division game
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+12.6 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.2 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in Road games off a division game
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (101) KANSAS CITY@ (102) HOUSTON | 2016-01-09 16:35:00 - 2016-01-09 16:35:00
Play ON KANSAS CITY using money line in All games against conference opponents
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (101) KANSAS CITY@ (102) HOUSTON | 2016-01-09 16:35:00 - 2016-01-09 16:35:00
Play UNDER HOUSTON on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the totalin All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the totalin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2016-01-09 20:15:00 - 2016-01-09 20:15:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

**StarDust Bum** · 01-07-2016, 12:04 PM

Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch "full go"
January 6, 2016

RENTON, Wash. (AP) Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is ''full go'' for returning to practice after being away from the team since undergoing abdominal surgery in late November.

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Lynch went through walkthrough on Wednesday morning and was expected to be a full participant in practice later Wednesday. Lynch has not practiced since Week 9 before the Seahawks faced Arizona. Lynch had surgery on Nov. 25 and has been working out with his personal trainers in the Bay Area the past few weeks.

If he makes it through the week, Lynch would be the presumptive starter for Sunday's NFC wild-card game against Minnesota.

Carroll also said strong safety Kam Chancellor (pelvis/tailbone), guard J.R. Sweezy (concussion), tackle Russell Okung (calf) and tight end Luke Willson (concussion) are all on track to play this week after missing last week's game with injuries.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-07-2016, 12:06 PM

Chiefs' Justin Houston plans to play
January 6, 2016

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston confirmed Wednesday that he plans to play in Saturday's wild-card game in Houston, his first game since hyperextending his knee in November.

The All-Pro pass rusher did light work last Friday but was not active for Sunday's regular-season finale against Cleveland. He's been practicing this week with a brace on his knee.

Houston acknowledged that ''I definitely got some rust to knock off.'' But his return should be a boon for the Chiefs, who have had to make do without their best pass rusher for the past five games.

Fellow pass rusher Tamba Hali is also expected to play. He returned last week from a broken thumb but only played 14 snaps against the Browns.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-07-2016, 12:09 PM

LeBron's group cuts ties with Manziel
January 6, 2016

CLEVELAND (AP) LeBron James has dropped Johnny Manziel as a business client.

A spokesman for James said the NBA star and has ended his marketing agreement with Manziel, the embattled Browns quarterback whose behavior has him on very shaky ground with his team and Cleveland fans.

James and his associates at LRMR - long-time friends Maverick Carter, Rich Paul and Randy Mims - will no longer be working with Manziel after mutually agreeing to end their partnership. LRMR has been handling endorsement deals for Manziel since he got drafted into the NFL.

Cleveland.com first reported the end of James' ties to Manziel, who missed Cleveland's season finale Sunday after he was spotted partying in Las Vegas over the weekend. Browns owner Jimmy Haslam said the 23-year-old Manziel missed a medical treatment as part of a mandatory concussion protocol he's following. Manziel was back at the team's facility Monday for exit meetings, but he did not speak with the media.

Carter told Cleveland.com that the decision to end the business relationship was due partly so Manziel could focus on his personal life.

''I will continue to support and advise him as a friend,'' Carter said. ''However, because Johnny needs to focus on personal growth, the next phase of his career and because LRMR continues to expand beyond marketing, we made the mutual decision that it was best to terminate our business relationship.''

Earlier on Wednesday in Washington, D.C., James expressed concern ''individually'' for Manziel, who spent 10 weeks during the offseason in a Pennsylvania rehab facility specializing in alcohol and substance abuse.

James didn't know the details of Manziel's latest escapades, but believes the QB would be better served focusing on other things.

''I've heard a little bit of it and it's just a distraction for not only himself but for everyone that's around him, including family, people that represent him, the people around him,'' James said. ''He'll figure it out at some point - we all hope.''

James has referred to Manziel as ''family'' in the past. When Manziel was a rookie, James brought his sons to one of Cleveland's training camp practices.

Manziel has attended numerous Cavaliers home games in Cleveland, often sitting courtside next to Carter or Paul.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-07-2016, 12:12 PM

Steelers WR Bryant accepts challenge from Roethlisberger
January 6, 2016

PITTSBURGH (AP) Ben Roethlisberger wasn't being cruel or unnecessarily harsh. The Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback had just seen enough - or not enough, to be accurate - out of wide receiver Martavis Bryant that he felt it was time to speak up.

Two weeks and two largely listless performances on the eve of the playoffs isn't what Roethlisberger wanted to see out of the remarkably talented if still occasionally inconsistent Bryant. So Roethlisberger issued what he called a ''challenge'' during his radio show on Tuesday, saying it was time for Bryant to ''toughen up.''

There was no edge in Roethlisberger's voice as he repeated it in so many words on Wednesday as the Steelers (10-6) prepare for a trip to Cincinnati on Saturday night in the wild-card round.

''I just felt like we need him,'' Roethlisberger said. ''I love that guy like a little brother and just wanted him to know we needed him to step up.''

Something that - when it happens - gives Pittsburgh arguably the best trio of receivers in the NFL in Bryant, All-Pro Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. Brown is the record-setting road-runner and perennial Pro Bowler. Wheaton is the versatile everyman and Bryant is perhaps the most athletically gifted of the bunch. His 6-foot-3 frame and seemingly effortless speed make him a matchup nightmare for opponents.

They do, anyway, when Bryant is engaged and on the field. He spent most of last Sunday's win over Cleveland on the sideline with what coach Mike Tomlin called a minor neck injury but could also have doubled as a momentary benching after Bryant - who was slowed all week by an illness - was beat out by Browns defensive back Jordan Poyer for a Roethlisberger pass in the first quarter.

''Oftentimes, when young guys don't get an opportunity to practice, they lack a little detail in play,'' Tomlin said.

Details that Bryant understands he should have ironed out nearing the end of his occasionally brilliant second season.

''I'm still balling,'' Bryant said. ''You have your ups and you have your downs. It's about how you bounce back. I'm going to be ready to go.''

Good thing, because the Steelers need him with the running game almost certainly limited. DeAngelo Williams sat out practice on Wednesday to undergo treatment on his injured right foot, leaving the running game in the largely inexperienced hands of Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman.

To win in Cincinnati for the 15th time in 18 tries, Pittsburgh will have to do it on Roethlisberger's right arm, one that has developed a fondness for chucking it deep to Bryant and letting Bryant - lovingly referred to as an ''alien'' by some - be Bryant.

Bryant was a supernova when thrust into the starting lineup in Week 7 as a rookie. He scored eight times in 10 games, including a 94-yard sprint against the Bengals that helped kickstart Pittsburgh's run to the AFC North title. He missed the first five games of this season - four while serving a suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy and another after getting nicked up when he returned to practice - only to make another dazzling entrance. He caught a pair of second-half touchdowns from Landry Jones to ignite a rally against Arizona on Oct. 18 and went over 100 yards in romps over Cleveland and Indianapolis.

All of which made his lethargic play of late all the more frustrating to Roethlisberger, who communicated frequently with Bryant during the receiver's suspension.

Roethlisberger called Bryant after calling him out over the air, a conversation Bryant insisted would remain between he and his quarterback. Not that it matters. Consider the message received.

''What he said was good for me,'' Bryant said. ''I needed that. I'm glad he did it. And like I said, I'll be ready to go come Saturday.''

Not that he has much of a choice.

''Anytime it's coming from (Roethlisberger), you understand he's only saying it because it's in your best interest,'' linebacker Arthur Moats said. ''He understands what kind of player Martavis is and what he's capable of doing. When he says something like that, it's nothing against him personally. It's `We need you out there so make sure you bring it.''

**StarDust Bum** · 01-07-2016, 12:15 PM

AP Sports Analysis: The case for Brock Osweiler
January 6, 2016

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) The Denver Broncos should start Brock Osweiler for the playoffs.

Their best chance to go on a Super Bowl run is with the man coach Gary Kubiak benched Sunday, even though he acknowledged Osweiler had done nothing to deserve the demotion.

Peyton Manning came in and sparked Denver to a 27-20 win over the Chargers that secured the top seed in the AFC playoffs. He should return to a relief role, ready at the first sign of trouble to start warming up again.

And Osweiler should return to the starting lineup for the eighth consecutive time when the Broncos (12-4) take the field on Jan. 17 for a divisional round matchup against the Chiefs, Texans or Steelers.

Although the maestro was at his magnificent best in putting the Broncos in the right plays at the right time Sunday, Manning was just 5 of 9 for 69 yards - and this against a team that was as stunned to see him trot onto the field as the millions of fans who were watching on TV.

Just wait for a team that's been waiting for Manning. An opponent that's been preparing for the five-time MVP who turns 40 six weeks after Super Bowl 50. That team will be ready for the QB who nearly led the league in interceptions - 17 - despite missing nearly half the season with a left foot injury.

Manning had the worst season of his spectacular career, setting career lows in nearly every category. Osweiler proved his mettle as a calm, cool quarterback who was unflappable in the face of dropped passes, fumbles and errant kicks - although he admittedly needs to work on escaping edge rushers and eluding the blitz.

Manning might have the playoff pedigree, but he also has an NFL record nine first-round exits in the postseason. Plus, he's not as nimble as he once was - which wasn't very snappy to begin with.

Osweiler, on the other hand, can make any throw or play in Kubiak's playbook: bootlegs, sprint-outs, rollouts, play-action passes.

And the fourth-year pro is no novice, either.

''Brock's had literally the best seat in the house to be able to learn,'' said Joe Theismann.

Osweiler's teammates rallied around him for two months. They'll be eager to atone for their mistakes after their fumbling and bumbling led to Osweiler's benching Sunday, which was akin to a hockey coach pulling his goaltender because everyone around him stunk.

Sure, Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson combined for a season-best 212 yards rushing against the Chargers, but Manning completed just one pass longer than 15 yards.

In the playoffs, opponents will bring up their safeties, knowing Manning can't beat them deep or outside the numbers. That will clog up the running lanes and bog down this offense like it was bottled-necked over the first half of the season.

With Osweiler, Kubiak has his full menu of plays available, not just an appetizer of shotgun snaps and quick throws.

Osweiler was better than Manning in every meaningful statistical category save for sacks.

It wasn't until the Broncos trailed 22-0 against the Chiefs on Nov. 15 that Kubiak pulled his five-time MVP. Kubiak said there's no way he'd wait that long this time if his starter struggles again.

''The great thing about it is it's taken everybody on our team to get to this point - everybody - and it's going to take everybody we have the rest of the way,'' Kubiak said.

Go with Osweiler. Have Manning ready in relief.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-07-2016, 12:18 PM

NFL Wildcard Weekend opens with three of four road teams favored

Kansas City is one of three of four road teams that are favored on Wildcard Weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Wildcard weekend opens in Houston with the Texans hosting the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 10 straight games and opened as three-point road favorites. The total opened at 41.

The Chiefs were 7-3 ATS during their 10 game win streak, but were just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Meanwhile the Texans were 5-3 ATS at home and closed the season going 3-0 SU/ATS.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

In the second AFC Wildcard matchup, Cincinnati hosts rival Pittsburgh and with Bengals' starting quarterback Andy Dalton's status uncertain, the Steelers have opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 46.5.

The AFC North foes split the two games this season with Cincy winning in Week 8 16-10 in a game that closed as a Pick and Pittsburgh taking the Week 14 33-20 as 1-point dogs. The games went 1-1 O/U.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday's Wildcard action kicks off in Minnesota, with two of the leagues hottest teams clash when the Seahawks visit the Vikings.

While it was Minnesota who went into Lambeau Field to take the NFC North crown from the Packers, it is the Seahawks who open as 3.5-point road favorites.

Seattle heads into the game covering six of the last seven games, including a 36-6 thumping of division rival Arizona in Week 17, while Minny was one of the NFL's best bets this season at 13-3 ATS. Seattle did go into Minnesota and thrash the Vikings 38-7 as 2.5-point faves in Week 12.

Green Bay Packers at Washington

Washington, perhaps surprisingly, opens as the lone home favorite in the final game of Wildcard weekend, hitting the board at -1 against visiting Green Bay. The total opened at 46.

Washington enters the game winner of four straight games SU and ATS, going over in each game. Meanwhile the Packers head into the playoffs losers of two in a row SU/ATS, getting outscored 58-21 in the process.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-07-2016, 12:19 PM

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Wild Card odds

Are oddsmakers making a mistake by settling such a low total for the Seahawks and Vikings' Wild Card showdown?

Spread to bet now

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3)

The Texans are a home dog, as well they should be. Kansas City is - on paper anyway - the most dangerous Wild Card team in the field. The Chiefs come in with 10 wins in a row (cautionary note: they were just 1-3 ATS in the final four games of the regular season) and still somewhat under the radar.

Most importantly, over the second half of the season, the Chiefs dominated teams when they go on the road: 20-point win at Baltimore, 14-point win at Oakland, 30-point win at San Diego, 16-point win at Denver.

Early betting is heavily on the Chiefs in this one, so if you can grab Kansas City and have to lay only the field goal, it could be a smart move. Books are cautious about adding that extra half point, but may have no choice in this one.

Spread to wait on

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

Reputation could be one factor as bettors have jumped hard on the Steelers in this one in early wagering. The Bengals always seem to find a way to lose playoff games and the foundation of the team came crumbling down in mid-December when franchise QB Andy Dalton suffering a thumb fracture trying to make a tackle. A.J. McCarron is 1-1 as the replacement, and McCarron brings oodles of confidence and zero experience into the biggest game of his pro life.

Home field might not be of much help in this one, because the road team won both games this season: the Steelers winning that Dalton/thumb game only a few weeks ago, 33-20. The Steelers scored a lot of points over the final half of the regular season, averaging almost 32 points per game in their final eight games. That production is appealing to public bettors.

Total to watch

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (42)

What? 42? Yes, Pete Carroll gets all weird when the Seahawks get near the goal line, but Seahawks have been crushing it lately. Books must be looking at the game these teams played in Minnesota in early December (Seattle, 38-7) and figuring that coaches get a little more conservative in the playoffs.

But the Vikings aren’t the same team they were a month ago, and they are averaging almost 33 points a game over the last three. Point-loving football bettors have to be banging the Over pretty hard on this one.

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