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[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Wildcard Round

Kansas City @ Houston

Game 101-102
January 9, 2016 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
138.081
Houston
138.868
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+3 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 105-106
January 9, 2016 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
138.920
Cincinnati
134.488
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-2 1/2); Over


Seattle @ Minnesota

Game 103-104
January 10, 2016 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
143.337
Minnesota
140.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+6); Under

Green Bay @ Washington

Game 107-108
January 10, 2016 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
138.256
Washington
136.880
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+1 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 9

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 5) at HOUSTON (9 - 7) - 1/9/2016, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (10 - 6) at CINCINNATI (12 - 4) - 1/9/2016, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in January games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 10

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SEATTLE (10 - 6) at MINNESOTA (11 - 5) - 1/10/2016, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (10 - 6) at WASHINGTON (9 - 7) - 1/10/2016, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 171-122 ATS (+36.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-87 ATS (-41.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday - Jan, 9

Kansas City at Houston, 4:35 ET
Kansas City: 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Houston: 16-4 OVER as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 8:15 ET
Pittsburgh: 21-8 OVER in playoff games
Cincinnati: 13-4 ATS as an underdog


Sunday - Jan, 10

Seattle at Minnesota, 1:05 ET
Seattle: 4-15 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS off a division game

Green Bay at Washington, 4:40 ET
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS off a division game
Washington: 37-64 ATS as a home favorite




NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 9

4:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh


Sunday, January 10

1:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Seattle

4:40 PM
GREEN BAY vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay's last 13 games
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

Wild Card Trends
January 7, 2016


Don’t look now but the 2015 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games begins this Saturday.

Let’s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend’s card. Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends…

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly


Kansas City at Houston

Good: Texans are 6-2 ATS as home dogs in games with both teams off a win

Bad: Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS vs playoff foes off BB wins

Ugly: Chiefs are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS in last ten Wild Card Round games


Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Good: Steelers 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS L10 non Super Bowl postseason games

Bad: Wild Card Round road favorites are 6-15-1 ATS

Ugly: Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-6 SU/ATS in playoff games


Seattle at Minnesota

Good: Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the postseason

Bad: Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is 1-4 SU as a playoff visitor

Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-4-2 ATS away off a win in Wild Card rounds


Green Bay at Washington

Good: Washington is 6-2 SU/ATS in Wild Card Round games

Bad: Green Bay is 1-4 SU/ATS vs. foes with a winning record this season

Ugly: Teams who won 4 fewer games last season are 1-12 SU/ATS as Wild Cards

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

That’s because Wild Card teams, off a season-ending SU double-digit win as an underdog win, are just 5-15 SU and 4-15-1 ATS.

The Redskins and the Seahawks could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL Wild Card Round playoff games is 111-12-4 ATS since 1980.

[StarDust Bum]

Manning named starter for playoffs
January 7, 2016

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) Peyton Manning has won back his starting job after recovering from a left foot injury and rescuing the Denver Broncos.

Brock Osweiler is back on the bench.

Coach Gary Kubiak informed his quarterbacks of his QB decision and then his team Thursday morning when players returned from a three-day furlough.

Manning missed seven starts with a torn plantar fascia. He returned to action Sunday when he relieved Osweiler in the second half and led the Broncos to a 27-20 win over San Diego that secured the AFC's top seed.

That marked Manning's first game as a backup since his freshman year at Tennessee 21 years ago.

Manning went 7-2 as Denver's starter, although he struggled all season with his foot injury, which affected his throwing motion and led to right shoulder and rib injuries as well.

It also forced the Broncos to put Manning in the pistol or shotgun on most snaps. But on Sunday, he was under center 40 percent of the time, which did wonders for their ground game.

Manning went just 5 of 9 for 69 yards passing Sunday with no TDs and no interceptions.

For the season, he threw a career-low nine TD passes and his 17 interceptions nearly led the league even though he missed almost half the season. Osweiler threw 10 TD passes and had six interceptions.

Soon a free agent, Osweiler may very well have proven he's the future for Denver, going 5-2 with both losses coming down to dropped passes in crunch time or he could have been 7-0, maybe rendering Manning a backup for the playoffs.

Osweiler displayed the athleticism, acumen, accuracy and arm strength to run Kubiak's offense, but his inexperience also showed.

He failed to check out of a cornerback blitz Sunday in which he was sacked and stripped of the football, one of five turnovers following his 72-yard touchdown toss to Demaryius Thomas 31 seconds into the game.

Manning got the same look a couple of times and checked into run plays away from the pressure. His superior recognition and line calls helped the Broncos gain a season-best 210 yards rushing.

Manning also drubs Osweiler in the experience department: Osweiler has never taken a snap in the playoffs. Manning is 11-13 in the playoffs over his 18-year career. That includes an NFL-record nine first-game exits, three Super Bowls and one ring.

Osweiler has said he'll prepare the same no matter who's the starter.

Kubiak surely won't hesitate to go back to him if he has to.

On Nov. 15, Kubiak waited until Manning had thrown four interceptions and compiled a career-worst 0.0 passer rating before pulling him with Denver down 22-0 to the Chiefs. The Broncos lost 29-13.

Kubiak said afterward that he made a mistake in going with Manning that day. He named Osweiler his starter the next morning while Manning went to see a foot specialist in North Carolina. He returned in a hard cast and walking boot he wore for 10 days before beginning a long and arduous rehab program.

After a setback a couple of weeks ago, Manning suited up Sunday for the first time since the injury but Osweiler kept his starting job.

Kubiak said Osweiler didn't do anything to deserve a demotion but he felt the team needed a jolt.

With Denver in danger of losing to the Chargers and slipping into the wild-card round and a road game at red-hot Kansas City this weekend, Manning entered midway through the third quarter.

His return energized the stadium and the Broncos as he led Denver on four scoring drives in five possessions.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - WC Saturday

January 8, 2016

Wild Card Sunday

The ‘under’ produced an 11-5 record in the final week of the regular season and most of the results were clear-cut. The Sunday Night finale between the Packers and Vikings leaned to the low side, which helped the ‘under’ go 30-21 (59%) in primetime games this season. Overall, the ‘under’ went 130-122-4 (52%) in the 256 games played during the 17-week season.

Wild Card Trends

Looking at the below results, you can see that the opening week of the playoffs has leaned to the low side. The ‘under’ has gone 9-2-1 (82%) in the Wild Card round the past three postseasons and going back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ‘under’ is 27-16-1 (63%) overall.

FIRST ROUND TOTAL HISTORY (2004-2014)

2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)

St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5 Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37

N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43 New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37

Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56 Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5

Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5 Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5
2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)

Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5 Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39

Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48 Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41

New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5 N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5

Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5 San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39
2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)

Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34

San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49 Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5

Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38 Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5

Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41 Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48
2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (Over 3-1)

Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5 Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38

N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44 Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5

Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41 Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47

Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5

Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34

2012 (Under 4-0) 2013 (Under 3-1)

Cincinnati 13 Houston 19 - UNDER 42.5 Kansas City 44 Indianapolis 45 - OVER 48

Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24 - UNDER 44 New Orleans 26 Philadelphia 24 - UNDER 55.5

Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24 - UNDER 47.5 San Diego 27 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47.5

Seattle 24 Washington 14 - UNDER 45 San Francisco 23 Green Bay 20 - UNDER 46.5
2014 (Under 2-1-1) 2015

Carolina 27 Arizona 16 - OVER 38 Kansas City at Houston

Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 17 - PUSH 47 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Indianapolis 26 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47 Seattle at Minnesota

Dallas 24 Detroit 20 - UNDER 48.5 Green Bay at Washington

Saturday Jan. 9

As per past playoffs, I’ll break down every matchup and offer up my total handicap and prediction on all the matchups. It was a down season for the Total Talk bankroll ($1,220) but we have 11 games left to save some face. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Kansas City at Houston

This total opened 40 ½ and the number has held steady, with a couple shops dropping to 40. Based on the analytics and current form, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ in this game. The Chiefs (17.9 points per game) and Texans (19.6 PPG) are both ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense and the units have been lights out down the stretch.

Houston allowed 22 combined points in its last three games albeit against the weak trio from the AFC South. The Chiefs’ Alex Smith isn’t a top-tier level quarterback but he’s definitely a step up in class from Hasselbeck, Mettenberger and Bortles. Kansas City closed the season with 10 straight wins and only two teams scored 20 or more points against the club during the streak. Ten wins is nothing to dismiss but you could argue that the defense wasn’t really tested and the same can be said for the rest of the AFC playoff teams, which is why the field looks wide open.

When these teams met in Week 1, the Chiefs opened up a 27-9 lead at halftime and the ‘over’ (40.5) connected early in the fourth quarter. Kansas City scored on five of seven first-half possessions but was aided with two short tracks due to Houston turnovers and those resulted in touchdowns. If you take away the mistakes made by the Texans, the Chiefs only have 13 points and they were blanked in the second-half.

It should be noted that Kansas City has been better offensively on the road (29 PPG) than at home (20.6 PPG) and it posted a 45-spot against Detroit in a home game which was played at London. Including this result, the ‘over’ is 3-1-1 in its last five games outside of Arrowhead. Also, when you have low totals you have to be weary of quick scores and the Chiefs were tied with Arizona this season for the most defensive touchdowns with six.

The Chiefs are 0-1 in the playoffs under head coach Andy Reid and it’s hard to forget their 45-44 collapse to the Colts in the playoffs two years ago. For those wondering, Chiefs QB Smith is 1-2 in the postseason and he’s thrown nine touchdowns and one interception. This will be the first playoff game for both Houston QB Brian Hoyer and head coach Bill O’Brien. The Texans are 2-2 all-time in the playoffs and both wins came at home while holding opponents to 13 and 10 points.

Fearless Prediction: My wager on this game is the Texans Team Total Under (18 ½) on Saturday. Houston’s offense is very vanilla and the injury to left tackle Duane Brown (leg) is a huge loss, plus their second-best WR Nate Washington (hip) is banged up. Houston scored 36 offensive touchdowns this season and only seven came on the ground. Kansas City should load up the box and be able to stifle them in this spot.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Saturday’s nightcap isn’t an easy handicap and the total is bouncing between 45 ½ and 46 ½ points, depending where you shop.

Pittsburgh enters this game with the fourth best scoring offense (26.4 PPG) in the league and that number jumps up to 29.9 PPG when QB Ben Roethlisberger has played a full game. The offense has sputtered twice with Big Ben this season, once versus Cincinnati (10-16) in Week 8 and recently in Week 5 at Baltimore (17-20) in Week 16. In those losses, he was picked off five times.

So which Big Ben shows up on Saturday? In the Steelers 33-20 road win at Cincinnati, he was very efficient and that shouldn’t be surprising. Since Roethlisberger showed up in Western Pennsylvania in 2004, the Steelers are 11-2 at the Bengals and the offense has averaged 26.3 PPG during this span.

Cincinnati is going to have A.J. McCarron under center since Andy Dalton went down with an injury, coincidentally in the second meeting to the Steelers. The understudy has been decent, completing 66% of his passes and has six touchdowns and only two interceptions, both picks coming against Pittsburgh.

We all know Dalton is winless (0-4) in the playoffs so maybe McCarron is the answer. For those of you who believe Pittsburgh is this great defensive team, think again. The Steelers were the third worst against the pass this season and if the Bengals can protect A.J. on Saturday, he should be able to dice up Pittsburgh.

Another factor I look at in this game is coaching and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin has some great total trends heading into Saturday. Tomlin, a Super Bowl winner, is 5-4 overall in the playoffs and the Steelers have averaged 26 PPG. The ‘over’ has gone 8-0-1 during this span.

While Tomlin and the Steelers attack has been strong in the postseason, the same can’t be said for Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs and the offense is only averaging 12.3 PPG in those losses.

Despite Pittsburgh’s offensive juggernaut, the Steelers leaned to the ‘under’ (10-6) this season and that included a 6-2 mark away from Heinz Field. Cincinnati saw the ‘under’ go 5-3 at home.

Fearless Prediction: There’s expected to a solid chance of precipitation on Saturday night in Cincinnati but the winds aren’t going to be high. Based on the above angles and the Steelers playing their third straight game on the road (system), I’m leaning to the high side and playing Over 45 ½ for the game and Bengals Team Total Over (21 ½) as well.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - WC Sunday

January 8, 2016


Sunday’s NFC Wild Card matchups will have bettors choosing between experience and youth as a pair of Super Bowl champions face teams with both quarterbacks and coaches making their postseason debuts.

As mentioned in Saturday’s installment, the ‘under’ has been a great bet in the Wild Card recently. The number stands at 9-2-1 (82%) to the low side the last three postseasons but make a not that we could see a total in the thirties this weekend with the Seahawks-Vikings game on the cusp of 40.

The last three Wild Card games that had totals close in the thirties all went ‘over’ the number but they were very tight outcomes.

Sunday Jan. 10

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Seattle at Minnesota

Oddsmakers sent out an opener of 42 ½ on this game and that number has dropped as low as 39 ½ at some shops. Inclement weather is expected in Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon and the latest forecasts have wind chills between 15-20 degrees below zero.

Since the Vikings started playing at TCF Bank Stadium (University of Minnesota), they only had two games that were in the same neighborhood of this week’s temperatures. They did well too, blasting the Panthers 31-13 last season and just a few weeks ago, they hammered the Giants 49-17 in similar conditions.

It’s hard to imagine the Vikings putting up a crooked number on Sunday, especially against a Seattle team that has the best scoring defense (17.3 points per game) in the league. What’s more impressive is the Seahawks were better defensively on the road (15.2 PPG) this season than at home.

Minnesota is stout defensively too, holding teams to 18.9 PPG but similar to Seattle, it’s been better on the road (17.8 PPG) than at home (20 PPG).

The Seahawks have leaned slightly to the ‘under’ (9-7) this season and the ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run the last four weeks yet the offense has averaged 32 PPG during the second-half of the season.

During this span, the ‘Hawks have averaged 36.3 in three road games, which includes a 38-7 win at Minnesota in Week 12. Seattle dominated on both sides of the ball, building a 35-0 lead and outgaining the Vikings by nearly 300 total yards (423-125) in the victory.

QB Russell Wilson has been lights out the last seven games, completing over 70 percent of his passes while racking up 24 touchdowns and only one interception. Seattle is expected to have running back Marshawn Lynch back this weekend and his presence might actually slow the game down. He only had 20 or more carries in two games this season and while they won those games, they both easily went ‘under’ the number (20-3, 13-12).

Since getting torched by Wilson and company, the Vikings closed the season with a 3-1 record and the defense allowed an average of 17.5 PPG. Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 11-4-1 overall but three of those ‘over’ tickets came at home.

Prior to last year’s playoff run, the Seahawks had watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 with Wilson at QB and Pete Carroll as head coach. Last postseason, Seattle was a perfect 3-0 to the ‘over’ and a couple of those tickets were lucky to cash, most notably its playoff opener at home versus Green Bay.

In Seattle’s recent postseason run with the pair, the ‘Hawks have been away from home four times and they’ve gone 2-2 while averaging 29.8 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1.

Including the result in December, the ‘Hawks have won and covered three straight against the Vikings and the ‘over’ has cashed in all three games.

Fearless Prediction: Based on the recent history for the ‘Hawks in the playoffs and the big game experience from Wilson, I’m leaning to Seattle Team Total Over (22) in this spot.

Green Bay at Washington

The total on this game opened at 46 and has dropped to 45 as of Friday morning. If your handicapping leans heavily on current form, you’re probably wondering why the early money has come in the ‘under’ and Green Bay in this game.

The Packers closed the season with a pair of humbling losses and were outscored 58-21 in those setbacks. Meanwhile, Washington finished off the last quarter of the season with four consecutive wins, covers and ‘over’ tickets.

It’s apparent that the form has been tossed out the window and bettors aren’t buying Washington and when you look at its resume this season, you can see the reasoning. The Redskins are in the playoffs despite not facing a team with a winning record and when they did go up against a playoff team, they surrendered 27 and 44 points to New England Carolina respectively.

Defensively, Washington is the worst scoring unit (23.7 PPG) amongst the 12 playoff teams and during its recent winning streak, the unit hasn’t held anybody to 21 or less.

However, right behind them is Green Bay’s defense at 20.2 PPG and that unit was torched when it stepped up in class too. The Packers went 5-3 on the road this season and the three losses all came to playoff teams, who put up 29, 37 and 38 points. Technically, the Redskins are a playoff team but certainly not in the same class with the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals.

Since the Redskins are now listed as short home ‘dogs for this game, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact they’ve won and covered five straight in this role and the offense has averaged 29.8 PPG. I’m not sure if head coach Jay Gruden is preaching the disrespect angle but something is working for them.

In 11 playoff games, the Packers have averaged 28.3 PPG with Aaron Rodgers at QB. In seven games away from Lambeau Field, the numbers are even better (31.3 PPG). Despite those strong offensive efforts, the ‘over’ has only managed to produce a 6-5 mark.

These teams met in the 2013 regular season and Green Bay pasted Washington 38-20 as a 7 ½-point home favorite and the ‘over’ (48) cashed early in the fourth quarter as Rodgers passed for 480 yards and 4 TDs.

Fearless Prediction: I expect both teams to produce four to five scores in this game and that should get both of them into the twenties. Even though the opening line is going the other way, I’m buying the game Over 45 and I’m also taking Washington Team Total Over (22 ½). Based on the great offensive numbers from the Redskins at home and the suspect defensive play from the Packers at home, Washington should jump this number on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Wildcard Weekend opens with three of four road teams favored

Kansas City is one of three of four road teams that are favored on Wildcard Weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Wildcard weekend opens in Houston with the Texans hosting the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs, who have won 10 straight games and opened as three-point road favorites. The total opened at 41.

The Chiefs were 7-3 ATS during their 10 game win streak, but were just 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Meanwhile the Texans were 5-3 ATS at home and closed the season going 3-0 SU/ATS.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

In the second AFC Wildcard matchup, Cincinnati hosts rival Pittsburgh and with Bengals' starting quarterback Andy Dalton's status uncertain, the Steelers have opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 46.5.

The AFC North foes split the two games this season with Cincy winning in Week 8 16-10 in a game that closed as a Pick and Pittsburgh taking the Week 14 33-20 as 1-point dogs. The games went 1-1 O/U.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday's Wildcard action kicks off in Minnesota, with two of the leagues hottest teams clash when the Seahawks visit the Vikings.

While it was Minnesota who went into Lambeau Field to take the NFC North crown from the Packers, it is the Seahawks who open as 3.5-point road favorites.

Seattle heads into the game covering six of the last seven games, including a 36-6 thumping of division rival Arizona in Week 17, while Minny was one of the NFL's best bets this season at 13-3 ATS. Seattle did go into Minnesota and thrash the Vikings 38-7 as 2.5-point faves in Week 12.

Green Bay Packers at Washington

Washington, perhaps surprisingly, opens as the lone home favorite in the final game of Wildcard weekend, hitting the board at -1 against visiting Green Bay. The total opened at 46.

Washington enters the game winner of four straight games SU and ATS, going over in each game. Meanwhile the Packers head into the playoffs losers of two in a row SU/ATS, getting outscored 58-21 in the process.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Weekend

Washington has picked up 17 of its total 38 sacks in the last four games - all wins for the Redskins. Green Bay has given up 14 sacks in the last two contests - both losses.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3.5, 40)

Chiefs’ soft sked vs. Texans’ peaking defense

Kansas City’s 10-game winning streak to end the NFL season is impressive, especially considering the Chiefs stumbled out of the blocks with a 1-5 SU start. However, poking around at this winning run – like a new-born baby – we find that there are few soft spots. The most glaring is the lack of push back from opposing defenses.

During those 10 games, Kansas City faced about as much resistance as a Slip-N-Slide, playing just two teams ranked lower than 18th in total defense: Denver No. 1 and Baltimore No. 8. The other eight games were against Pittsburgh (21st), Detroit (18th), San Diego twice (20th), Buffalo (19th), Oakland twice (22nd), and Cleveland (27th).

Houston, which ranked third in total defense on the season, took a while to find its familiar footing on that side of the ball. The Texans stop unit was blasted for some big numbers against ho-hum opponents, like Atlanta and Miami, but tightened the bolts during the home stretch and won three in a row to punch a postseason ticket.

Sure, Houston took on cupcakes as well, facing Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville in the final three contests. But the Texans still limited those divisional foes to a grand total of 22 points and allowed an average of just under 221 yards in that span – lowest in the NFL. Another big plus is the resurgence of J.J. Watt, who had just four sacks in the first six weeks before exploding for 13.5 in the last 10 games, including three in the finale versus the Jaguars.

Daily fantasy watch: Houston D/ST

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 45.5)

Steelers without Williams vs. Bengals’ red-zone defense

Veteran running back D’Angelo Williams was a godsend for the Steelers, who leaned on him when Le’Veon Bell was suspended to start the year and again when Bell was lost for the season. Williams’ smash-mouth style has stirred up memories of Jerome Bettis, especially when Pittsburgh enters its opponent’s 20-yard line, scoring six of his 11 touchdowns inside the red zone. In fact, he had 34 red-zone touches this season, which is seventh most for running backs in the league.

Williams is a big question mark for Saturday’s Wild Card showdown with Cincinnati, missing practice this week with a foot injury that has the bruising back in a walking boot. He was a major cog in Pittsburgh’s 33-20 win over the Bengals in Week 14, rushing for 76 yards and two touchdowns – both on which came on 1-yard runs at the goal line. Without Williams, the Steelers are expecting to go with Fitzgerald Toussaint as the No. 1 rushing option.

Cincinnati has been among the top defenses in the league all season and turns up the intensity when teams actually do crack the red zone. The Bengals, who have allowed opponents inside the 20-yard line only 38 times this season, have watched those foes find the end zone just over 47 percent of the time – fifth lowest in the NFL.

Those numbers get slimmer inside Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati is giving up TDs on just 33 percent of their opponents’ red-zone tries and has been drum tight against the run as well, limiting rival rushers to four total TDs on the ground at home this season – two of those coming to Williams in Week 14. In the Week 8 meeting in Pittsburgh, the Bengals budged for 116 rushing yards from Bell and Williams with no rushing scores.

Daily fantasy watch: Cincinnati D/ST

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+5, 39.5)

Seahawks’ troubles in the cold vs. Vikings’ frigid home field

The Seahawks have enjoyed one of the best home-field edges in the NFL for years. Not only is the crowd at CenturyLink Field among the loudest in pro sports, but the damp and dank Seattle weather has plagued visiting teams during the winter months.

Now, the Seahawks find themselves on the other end of that edge during the Wild Card Weekend. The Sunday forecast in Minnesota is calling for temperatures hovering around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with a wind chill making it feel much colder than that. It is lining up to be one of the coldest games in NFL history.

While the Pacific Northwest has plenty of rain, it is one of the warmer annual climates in the country, putting the two-time NFC champs out of their element. Cold has had a negative effect on the Seahawks in recent years, going just 2-4 SU and ATS on the road when the mercury dips below freezing (32 degrees F) since 2005-06, including a 0-4 SU and ATS mark since 2007-08. During those previous four chilly road games, the Seahawks have been outscored 149-74.

The last time Seattle played in anything close to Sunday’s climate was a 21 F degree day at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, losing 24-20 to the Chiefs as a 1-point road favorite in Week 11 of last season. “There’s no simulating zero degrees,” Seattle CB Richard Sherman told the media this week. “I guess I could go upstairs in the freezer, shut the doors, sit there for a few minutes?”

Daily fantasy watch: Adrian Peterson RB

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+1, 45.5)

Packers’ poor pass protection vs. Redskins’ raging pass rush

When you look at how bad the Packers’ offensive line has been this season, it’s a near miracle Aaron Rodgers didn't join the long list of starting quarterbacks that were put on the shelf. Rodgers was sacked 47 times during the regular season – 17 times more than 2014 – and has been hit a total of 104 times, which ranks seventh most in the NFL.

Things have gotten especially hectic for “Discount Double Check” in recent weeks. Rodgers has been laid out 23 times in the last six games with 14 of those coming in the previous two: nine times in the loss to Arizona and five in the loss to Minnesota in Week 17. Injuries to the offensive line has spoiled any chemistry in Green Bay and has Mike McCarthy shuffling his protectors like musical chairs.

Washington comes into the postseason on a four-game winning streak, thanks in large part to a defense that has feasted on opposing passers. The Redskins, who have 38 total sacks on the season, picked up 21 of those in the first 12 weeks of the schedule – an average of just under two sacks per game in that span. But in the final four games of the season, Washington has recorded 17 sacks for an average of 4.25 per outing.

Linebackers Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith have been blowing up blockers in recent weeks, combining for eight of those 17 sacks in the past four games. To protect from those outside rushers - and make up for a lack of depth on the o-line – Green Bay will use plenty of two-tight end sets as well as a fullback to give Rodgers time. That inability to spread out receivers takes some bite out of the Packers’ pass game.

Daily fantasy watch: Washington D/ST

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 9

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


KC at HOU 04:35 PM

HOU +3.0 BEST BET

U 39.0

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 9

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PIT at CIN 08:15 PM

PIT -2.5 BEST BET

O 45.5 BEST BET

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Tip Sheet
January 8, 2016

Seahawks (-5, 39 ½) at Vikings – 1:05 PM EST – NBC

Seattle (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) is listed as the largest favorite on Wild Card weekend, as the two-time defending NFC Champions travel to frigid Minneapolis to start their Super Bowl quest. Temperatures are expected to be in the single-digits by kickoff, marking one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history.

The Seahawks started the season on the wrong foot, losing four of their first six games, including three losses by four points or less. Pete Carroll’s team would turn the corner by winning eight of the final 10 contests to clinch their fourth straight playoff berth and qualify for the postseason for the 10th time in 13 seasons. Quarterback Russell Wilson lit up opposing defenses in the last seven weeks of the season by throwing for 24 touchdowns and only one interception, including 11 touchdown strikes to wide receiver Doug Baldwin.

The Vikings (11-5 SU, 13-3 ATS) put together the best ATS record in the league, while clinching the NFC North crown by winning at Green Bay in Week 17 by a 20-13 count as three-point underdogs. Mike Zimmer’s club won their final three games of the season to overcome a pair of early December losses to Seattle and Arizona, as the Vikings’ defense yielded 17 points or less during this current three-game winning streak.

Seattle ripped Minnesota at TCF Bank Stadium in Week 13 as 2 ½-point road favorites, 38-7. Wilson carved up the Vikings’ defense with three touchdown passes to go along with a touchdown run, while Baldwin hauled in a pair of scores from Wilson. Adrian Peterson couldn’t get anything going on the ground for the Vikings, rushing 18 yards on eight carries, both season-lows. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater struggled as well, throwing for 181 yards and an interception, one of six games in which he didn’t throw a touchdown pass this season.

Seattle’s defense gave up at least 30 points in a game three times this season, yet they still led the league in points allowed at 277. The Seahawks lost their first three games away from CenturyLink Field, but won their final five road contests by yielding an average of 6.8 points per game and covering four times. The ‘under’ cashed in the last four games of the season, while Seattle won three of four times against NFC North foes.

The Vikings are back in the postseason for the first time since 2012, while hosting their first playoff game since 2009. Minnesota took advantage at TCF Bank Stadium by compiling a 6-2 SU/ATS record, although they put up 1-2 SU/ATS mark against playoff squads with the lone win coming against Kansas City in Week 6.

Running back Marshawn Lynch is out of the lineup for the Seahawks once again after missing the last seven games with a sports hernia. Christine Michael has stepped up with the myriad of injuries in the Seattle backfield as the former Texas A&M standout rushed for 102 yards in the season finale rout of the Cardinals.

The Seahawks have put together a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record in the postseason since Wilson took over at quarterback in 2012. Seattle is playing its first road playoff game since Wilson’s rookie season as the Seahawks beat the Redskins as three-point road favorites, 24-14, followed up by a 30-28 setback at Atlanta in the divisional playoffs as 2 ½-point underdogs.

Packers at Redskins (-1, 45) – 4:40 PM EST – FOX

In probably the most intriguing matchup of Wild Card weekend, arguments can be made for both Green Bay and Washington to advance – and to lose. The Packers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) are no stranger to the postseason, qualifying for the seventh consecutive season, but Mike McCarthy’s squad has lost four of their last six playoff games.

The last time Green Bay didn’t win the NFC North title, it worked out for them as they won three straight road playoff games and knocked off the Steelers to capture Super Bowl XLV in 2010. The Packers fell short of a division championship this season in spite of jumping out to a 6-0 record. Green Bay lost its final two games, including a 20-13 home setback to rival Minnesota to be relegated to the Wild Card round.

Washington (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS) overcame a 2-4 start to take home the NFC East championship for the first time since 2012. The Redskins are riding a four-game winning streak, while topping the 34-point mark in each of the past three victories. Quarterback Kirk Cousins was intercepted eight times in the first six games, but turned things around in a huge way by posting a 23/3 touchdown to interception ratio in the final 10 contests (7-3 SU/ATS).

The Packers and Redskins didn’t play each other this season as Green Bay won the previous matchup at Lambeau Field in 2013 by a 38-20 score. Green Bay cashed as nine-point favorites and were never really challenged as they grabbed a 31-0 third quarter advantage. Aaron Rodgers torched the Redskins’ defense by throwing for 480 yards and four touchdowns, while two Packers’ receivers (James Jones and Randall Cobb) each racked up at least 100 yards.

Jay Gruden’s team made plenty of strides this season, but one thing that can be highlighted is the fact the Redskins didn’t beat one club that owned a winning record. Washington is setting in as a short favorite as the Redskins failed to cash in two opportunities when laying points at FedEx Field. In the first chance, Washington erased a 24-0 deficit against Tampa Bay in a thrilling 31-30 triumph, but didn’t cover as three-point favorites. In the second opportunity as a home favorite, the Redskins were tripped up by the Cowboys in an ugly 19-16 loss in Week 13, but Washington won five of its final seven home games.

Green Bay had its struggles on the road against playoff teams this season, losing at Denver, Carolina, and Arizona. The Packers did put together a strong effort in a 30-13 blowout of the Vikings in late November, but Green Bay scored 16 points or less in five of six losses this season. The last playoff game for the Packers especially stung, blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead in a 28-22 overtime loss at Seattle in last season’s NFC Championship.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - WC
January 8, 2016

There’s one decision during Wild Card weekend that stands out like a sore thumb at Las Vegas sports books and of course it happens to be the biggest favorite among the four games.

“The Vikings are going to be key for us,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, "because we’re loaded with action on the Seattle side, not so much on straight bets because we took some large money at +6 with Minnesota, but from parlays and teasers. We’re seeing our parlays being bet at about an 8-to-1 ratio on the Seahawks.”

There’s a variety of numbers to choose from around town with a low of Seattle -4.5 at MGM Resorts to a high of -5.5 The Wynn. The South Point, Station Casinos and CG Technologies are all at -5.

“We are going to be rooting hard for the Vikings,” said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. “We’ve taken both sharp and public action with Seattle so it will be a big decision.”

Another angle Simbal has a rooting interest in with Minnesota is conference and Super Bowl futures. CG books don’t want Seattle to win it all because of risk while one of their biggest wins would come from another NFC team.

“We win really big to the Panthers in futures so ideally we want them to avoid Seattle next week and play either Green Bay or Washington.”

Seattle comes in having covered five of its past six games and that kind of momentum always sits well with the betting public, as does the playoff pedigree differential between both teams. They also watched Seattle win 38-7 at Minnesota last month.

The difference this time around is that the Vikings have covered its last four games and freezing temperatures with a wind chill at minus degrees could make it a grittier grind out game than witnessed in their last meeting.

“Our best scenario for the weekend so far is for the Texans and Bengals to win outright,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. “The NFC games are still unclear for us. We’ve got lots of parlay risk on Seattle, but the straight money is on the Vikings.”

The books would love to get the Wild Card weekend started Saturday with an early upset in the first game where the Chiefs are a consensus 3-point favorite (-120) at Houston.

“We’re balanced on straight bets between two different numbers, but the Chiefs are being bet at a 5-to-2 ratio on the parlays“, said Osborne.

Osborne’s book is the only one in the city that uses flat numbers and he has seen large action laying -3 with the Chiefs and large action the other way with the Texans +3.5.

Saturday’s late game is a rubber match between bitter division rivals with the Steelers as 3-point road favorites at Cincinnati. The two teams split the two meetings during the regular season.

The Bengals have lost in this round the past four seasons and coach Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in Wild Card games over his 12 years with the Bengals -- not one cover, either.

“Were even with straight bets on the Steelers and Bengals,” said Osborne, “but the Steelers are getting most of the play on parlays.”

There's a 90 percent chance of rain at Cincinnati Saturday night and a 100 percent chance of rain Sunday afternoon at Washington (Landover) where the Packers and Redskins are Pick 'em.

“Surprisingly, the public likes the Redskins,” said Osborne. “We’re even on straight bets, but parlays are at about a 3-to-2 ratio in favor of the Redskins.”

Green Bay has traditionally been a popular choice with the betting public, but after seeing them lose and fail to cover its final two games while the Redskins come in on a roll of winning and covering its last four games, the Redskins have found plenty of supporters this week.

If Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Washington all cover for the public, it's going to be a massive blow to the sports books with lots of parlay payouts. If the books can get two of those sides not to cover, they should come away with a winning weekend, especially if Minnesota covers.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
January 8, 2016


Sunday’s NFC Wild Card matchups will have bettors choosing between experience and youth as a pair of Super Bowl champions face teams with both quarterbacks and coaches making their postseason debuts.

As mentioned in Saturday’s installment, the ‘under’ has been a great bet in the Wild Card recently. The number stands at 9-2-1 (82%) to the low side the last three postseasons but make a not that we could see a total in the thirties this weekend with the Seahawks-Vikings game on the cusp of 40.

The last three Wild Card games that had totals close in the thirties all went ‘over’ the number but they were very tight outcomes.

Sunday Jan. 10

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Seattle at Minnesota

Oddsmakers sent out an opener of 42 ½ on this game and that number has dropped as low as 39 ½ at some shops. Inclement weather is expected in Minneapolis on Sunday afternoon and the latest forecasts have wind chills between 15-20 degrees below zero.

Since the Vikings started playing at TCF Bank Stadium (University of Minnesota), they only had two games that were in the same neighborhood of this week’s temperatures. They did well too, blasting the Panthers 31-13 last season and just a few weeks ago, they hammered the Giants 49-17 in similar conditions.

It’s hard to imagine the Vikings putting up a crooked number on Sunday, especially against a Seattle team that has the best scoring defense (17.3 points per game) in the league. What’s more impressive is the Seahawks were better defensively on the road (15.2 PPG) this season than at home.

Minnesota is stout defensively too, holding teams to 18.9 PPG but similar to Seattle, it’s been better on the road (17.8 PPG) than at home (20 PPG).

The Seahawks have leaned slightly to the ‘under’ (9-7) this season and the ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run the last four weeks yet the offense has averaged 32 PPG during the second-half of the season.

During this span, the ‘Hawks have averaged 36.3 in three road games, which includes a 38-7 win at Minnesota in Week 12. Seattle dominated on both sides of the ball, building a 35-0 lead and outgaining the Vikings by nearly 300 total yards (423-125) in the victory.

QB Russell Wilson has been lights out the last seven games, completing over 70 percent of his passes while racking up 24 touchdowns and only one interception. Seattle is expected to have running back Marshawn Lynch back this weekend and his presence might actually slow the game down. He only had 20 or more carries in two games this season and while they won those games, they both easily went ‘under’ the number (20-3, 13-12).

Since getting torched by Wilson and company, the Vikings closed the season with a 3-1 record and the defense allowed an average of 17.5 PPG. Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 11-4-1 overall but three of those ‘over’ tickets came at home.

Prior to last year’s playoff run, the Seahawks had watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 with Wilson at QB and Pete Carroll as head coach. Last postseason, Seattle was a perfect 3-0 to the ‘over’ and a couple of those tickets were lucky to cash, most notably its playoff opener at home versus Green Bay.

In Seattle’s recent postseason run with the pair, the ‘Hawks have been away from home four times and they’ve gone 2-2 while averaging 29.8 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1.

Including the result in December, the ‘Hawks have won and covered three straight against the Vikings and the ‘over’ has cashed in all three games.

Fearless Prediction: Based on the recent history for the ‘Hawks in the playoffs and the big game experience from Wilson, I’m leaning to Seattle Team Total Over (22) in this spot.



Green Bay at Washington

The total on this game opened at 46 and has dropped to 45 as of Friday morning. If your handicapping leans heavily on current form, you’re probably wondering why the early money has come in the ‘under’ and Green Bay in this game.

The Packers closed the season with a pair of humbling losses and were outscored 58-21 in those setbacks. Meanwhile, Washington finished off the last quarter of the season with four consecutive wins, covers and ‘over’ tickets.

It’s apparent that the form has been tossed out the window and bettors aren’t buying Washington and when you look at its resume this season, you can see the reasoning. The Redskins are in the playoffs despite not facing a team with a winning record and when they did go up against a playoff team, they surrendered 27 and 44 points to New England Carolina respectively.

Defensively, Washington is the worst scoring unit (23.7 PPG) amongst the 12 playoff teams and during its recent winning streak, the unit hasn’t held anybody to 21 or less.

However, right behind them is Green Bay’s defense at 20.2 PPG and that unit was torched when it stepped up in class too. The Packers went 5-3 on the road this season and the three losses all came to playoff teams, who put up 29, 37 and 38 points. Technically, the Redskins are a playoff team but certainly not in the same class with the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals.

Since the Redskins are now listed as short home ‘dogs for this game, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact they’ve won and covered five straight in this role and the offense has averaged 29.8 PPG. I’m not sure if head coach Jay Gruden is preaching the disrespect angle but something is working for them.

In 11 playoff games, the Packers have averaged 28.3 PPG with Aaron Rodgers at QB. In seven games away from Lambeau Field, the numbers are even better (31.3 PPG). Despite those strong offensive efforts, the ‘over’ has only managed to produce a 6-5 mark.

These teams met in the 2013 regular season and Green Bay pasted Washington 38-20 as a 7 ½-point home favorite and the ‘over’ (48) cashed early in the fourth quarter as Rodgers passed for 480 yards and 4 TDs.

Fearless Prediction: I expect both teams to produce four to five scores in this game and that should get both of them into the twenties. Even though the opening line is going the other way, I’m buying the game Over 45 and I’m also taking Washington Team Total Over (22 ½). Based on the great offensive numbers from the Redskins at home and the suspect defensive play from the Packers at home, Washington should jump this number on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL ATS

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 29 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+19.1 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in all games
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)

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NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in All games off a division game
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in Road games off a division game
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (107) GREEN BAY@ (108) WASHINGTON | 2016-01-10 16:40:00 - 2016-01-10 16:40:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line in All games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
The record is 16 Wins and 32 Losses for the since 1992 (-26 units)

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the totalin All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (103) SEATTLE@ (104) MINNESOTA | 2016-01-10 13:05:00 - 2016-01-10 13:05:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at MIN 01:05 PM

MIN +4.0 BEST BET

O 40.0 BEST BET


GB at WAS 04:40 PM

WAS -1.0 BEST BET

O 46.5 BEST BET

[StarDust Bum]

Parlay Wager - 1 Parlay of 4 Teams

NFL - 01/10/16
[103] TOTAL (SEATTLE vrs MINNESOTA) o40 1.91
Game Date: 01-10-2016 10:05:00

NFL - 01/10/16
[104] MINNESOTA +4 1.95
Game Date: 01-10-2016 10:05:00

NFL - 01/10/16
[107] TOTAL (GREEN BAY vrs WASHINGTON) o47 1.91
Game Date: 01-10-2016 13:40:00

NFL - 01/10/16
[108] WASHINGTON PK 1.91
Game Date: 01-10-2016 13:40:00