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[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Top Bowl Action
December 29, 2015


MEMPHIS TIGERS (9-3) vs. AUBURN TIGERS (6-6)

Birmingham Bowl
Legion Field - Birmingham, AL
Kickoff: Wednesday, Noon ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Auburn -3, Total: 62

Two teams of Tigers will claw at one another in Wednesday's Birmingham Bowl when Memphis seeks its 10th win against a 6-6 Auburn club.

Memphis (6-5-1 ATS) opened the season with eight straight victories, but allowed 111 points during a three-game losing skid before beating up SMU 63-0 in the regular-season finale. Auburn has been up and down in the win column all season and is tied for the fewest ATS victories in FBS at 2-9-1 ATS. This will likely be the final game for Memphis junior QB Paxton Lynch, who is projected as a high draft pick this spring. Lynch threw 7 TD in his last game to give him 28 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions this season.

There are plenty of betting trends for both schools on Wednesday, as Memphis falls in the category of excellent offensive teams (34+ PPG) going 52-21 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 since 1992 after allowing 14 points or less when facing an average defense (21-28 PPG allowed). Also, head man Darrell Dickey is 13-4 ATS after a double-digit conference win as a college head coach. But Auburn benefits from a pair of negative trends for its opponent, as Memphis is 5-20 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its last game since 1992 and 16-31 ATS after a win by 17+ points in this same timeframe.

On the injury front, Memphis is the more banged-up of the two schools with four players listed as questionable -- WR Roderick Proctor, WR Jae'Lon Oglesby, OL Taylor Fallin and LB Genard Avery. For Auburn, DL Jaunta'vius Johnson is doubtful to play while DL Prince Tega Wanogho (leg) is questionable.

Memphis has a potent offense that scores 42.7 PPG on 510 total YPG and 6.4 yards per play this season. Despite a passing game that racks up 324 YPG on 9.1 YPA, these Tigers actually rush the ball on 55% of their plays. The ground game helps the club hold the football for 30:43 per contest, as it produces a healthy 186 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC.

Junior QB Paxton Lynch (69% completions, 3,670 pass yds, 28 TD, 3 INT) stands tall at 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds, but he has taken just 15 sacks all year. Of his nine completions against SMU, seven of those wound up as touchdowns, giving him eight multi-TD games on the season. Lynch has succeeded by spreading the wealth, as nine different teammates have at least 10 catches this season and eight players have caught at least two touchdowns.

On the ground, Memphis looks mostly to sophomore RB Doroland Dorceus (613 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 8 TD), who has found the end zone six times in the past six games. Defensively, Memphis has been playing great in the past three games where it has held opponents to 22.0 PPG and 317 total YPG, which lowers its season numbers to 27.0 PPG and 407 total YPG.

While these Tigers defend the run very well (138 YPG on 3.4 YPC) their pass defense is below average in surrendering 269 YPG on 8.0 YPA. The unit has also forced seven turnovers in the past two games, which followed a drought of three straight contests without a takeaway. However, their opponent has been outstanding in holding onto the football with only five turnovers in the past eight games combined.

Auburn's inconsistent offense gains 27.2 PPG on 367 total YPG this year, but those numbers are curiously better away from home (30.8 PPG, 371 total YPG). This is a run-heavy offense with 65% of the plays keeping the football on the ground. As a result of this, Auburn gains 192 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC, but throws for only 175 YPG on 7.3 YPA. The team's best player is sophomore RB Peyton Barber (976 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 13 TD), who started October with 11 rushing touchdowns during a three-game stretch, but has found the end zone only once in the past five weeks combined. Barber will need to step up to take the pressure off erratic junior QB Jeremy Johnson, who has completed 60% of his passes for 1,043 yards (6.7 YPA), 9 TD and 7 INT. He has been sacked only nine times in his nine games, and has also rushed for five touchdowns in 2015.

Top WR Ricardo Louis (699 rec yds, 3 TD) has 470 more receiving yards than anybody on his roster, but has not put together two great games in a row with inconsistent receiving totals of 47, 154, 79, 137, 0, 22, 90 and 24 over the past eight games. The Auburn defense gives up 27.3 PPG on 422 total YPG this year, and hasn't been very good against either the run (190 YPG on 4.6 YPC) or the pass (232 YPG on 6.6 YPA). Away from home, the unit is allowing a hefty 233 rushing YPG on 5.4 YPC. Although Auburn has collected a pedestrian 18 forced turnovers this year, the team has produced three takeaways in two of the past four contests.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 26, 2015


With the way the calendar falls this season there are five straight days with multiple bowl games Tuesday to Saturday and the Wednesday schedule features some big games featuring three SEC teams, two ACC teams, a highly regarded Memphis team from the AAC as well as the late night game between the B1G and Pac-12.

Here is a look at the two evening games in bowl action on the eve of the college football playoff games.

Music City Bowl

Matchup: Louisville Cardinals vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Venue: LP Field in Nashville, Tennessee
Time/TV: Wednesday, December 30, 2015, 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Line: Louisville -4½, Over/Under 47
Last Meeting: 1994, Texas A&M (-12½) 26, at Louisville 10

Kevin Sumlin quickly skyrocketed up the college football coaching landscape with success at Houston and a great 11-2 debut season at Texas A&M behind Johnny Manziel, winning the Cotton Bowl after the 2012 season. With high expectations the next season the Aggies faltered a bit but highly rated recruiting classes kept coming in as Texas A&M quickly emerged as a SEC power in quick order in moving to the highly regarded league.

Last season Texas A&M started the college football season with a dominant win at South Carolina to grab the spotlight and the Aggies reached as high as #6 in a 5-0 start to the season. By midseason quarterback Kenny Hill wound up on the bench after the Aggies lost three games in a row and highly regarded freshman Kyle Allen finished out a respectable but disappointing 8-5 season. Allen opened this season as the starter with the Aggies starting off 5-0 and back in the top 10 heading into a big home date with Alabama, but the script would follow a familiar path.

That Alabama game went poorly with an 18-point loss as did the following game with Mississippi and Allen wound up sitting in favor of another prized recruit, freshman Kyler Murray who is also a top baseball prospect. After winning his first start Murray wound up with five interceptions in the next two games and the Aggies went back to Allen. Neither quarterback seemed happy with the situation as both have opted to transfer, just as Hill did after last season. That leaves sophomore Jake Hubenak leading the way for this game with limited experience.

Texas A&M wound up 8-4 for the season but they lost by double-digits in all four defeats including two home losses, finishing only ahead of Auburn in the SEC West with the Tigers beating the Aggies in College Station. One area where the Aggies did improve was on defense, allowing almost a touchdown less per game while allowing 84 fewer yards per game. The Aggies did draw two of the weaker teams in the SEC East and only had one formidable non-conference foe as the schedule was not overly demanding however.

Sumlin is 4-1 in bowl games including 3-0 with the Aggies although there was a missed cover two years ago vs. Duke. The Music City Bowl won’t likely be a huge draw for the program but Louisville is an attractive matchup going up against former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino who has bounced his way back to the major conference level now completing his second season back at Louisville.

The Cardinals went 9-4 last season and gave Clemson and Florida State very close games in the ACC Atlantic. Many felt Louisville was a sleeper in the ACC Atlantic race but the season started poorly for the Cardinals with several big games early in the season. Louisville started the season 0-3 with losses to Auburn, Houston, and Clemson but all three defeats were one-score games and while Auburn wound up having a disappointing season, Houston and Clemson proved to be great teams.

Louisville went on to win seven of the final nine but only once did Louisville beat a bowl team and four of five ACC wins came by seven or fewer points. Three different quarterbacks played for Louisville this season with freshman Lamar Jackson seeing most of the action with uneven results, ultimately passing for just over 55 percent completions and throwing for 10 touchdowns. Jackson ran for over 700 yards to lead the team in rushing but he also threw eight interceptions and took 25 sacks.

Turnovers were an issue for Louisville this season with 27 on the season as while the defense forced 24 takeaways the Cardinals had a negative turnover margin for the first time since 2011 after being +35 the past three years combined. The Aggies also had a slightly negative turnover margin at -4, with the Aggies having a negative turnover margin now in six of the last seven seasons. Last season in bowl action Louisville lost badly to a SEC team, losing 37-14 vs. Georgia in the Belk Bowl with the Cardinals allowing nearly 500 yards.

Louisville’s defense allowed just 323 yards per game this season, the 13th best average in college football despite a much more modest scoring average for the defense with the Aggies allowing about a field goal less per game on the season compared with Louisville. Louisville did allow 100 points in the final three games of the season however while Texas A&M allowed just 113 points in the final six games of the season despite going just 3-3 down the stretch.

The line on this game has moved dramatically with the Aggies opening as a slight favorite but Louisville now favored with the quarterback moves for Texas A&M. The total is also among the lower bowl totals with the Aggies expected to take a hit on offense with Hubenak having just 12 completions under his belt.

Holiday Bowl

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers at Southern California Trojans
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California
Time/TV: Wednesday, December 30, 2015, 10:30 p.m. ET - ESPN
Line: USC -3½, Over/Under 50½
Last Meeting: 1966, at USC 38, Wisconsin 3

USC opened the season on the short list of national title contenders in Steve Sarkisian’s second season in Los Angeles, returning a lot of talent from a 9-4 squad the previous year but a team that had wins over Stanford, Notre Dame, and Nebraska. The Trojans won convincingly in the first two weeks of the season despite surrendering some yardage but at home vs. the Cardinal in week 3 the Trojans wound up on the wrong side of a shootout.

USC best Arizona State but then on a Thursday night game off a bye week the offense disappeared in a low-scoring loss to Washington at home. Word came out that Steve Sarkisian was having some issues off the field and ultimately it was announced he was taking a leave of absence just days ahead of the big game with Notre Dame. Sarkisian was ultimately fired hours later and offensive coordinator Clay Helton resumed coaching the rest of the season, with Helton losing the interim tag after the late season win against UCLA.

USC wound up 8-5 on the season after losing again to Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game. While all of the losses came against quality teams four of the five defeats came by double-digits. As a three-year starter Cody Kessler has passed for over 10,000 yards but his numbers this season slid back a bit after being considered a Heisman Trophy candidate as the season started, throwing for just 28 touchdowns after having 39 last season with lesser marks pretty much across the board. JuJu Smith-Schuster was Kessler’s favorite target with 85 receptions for nearly 1,400 yards as one of the most productive receivers in the nation.

USC wound up with three running backs combining for nearly 2,300 yards, generally something Wisconsin is known for and part of the reason Kessler’s numbers declined a bit. USC rushed for 176 yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry as the Trojans enter this game as the superior rushing team despite Wisconsin’s reputation. With Paul Chryst in his first year back at Wisconsin the offense ran the ball about eight fewer times per game and had less than half of the production on the ground compared to last season when the team ran for 320 yards per game.

Injuries were a big issue in that regard with the offensive line losing key pieces throughout the year and Corey Clement, an over 900 yard rusher from last season, playing in just parts of three games. Clement is expected to play in this game and he could have a season high in carries as the Badgers were forced to rely on far less heralded players in the backfield this season.

Despite not always being a fan-favorite Joel Stave would be the quarterback with the most Wisconsin wins if the Badgers win the Holiday Bowl. Starting in parts of four years Stave has had some ups and downs and he had more interceptions than touchdowns this season. He also threw at least 30 times in six different games this season and did not have the protection and complimentary ground game he was used to having, taking 21 sacks this season after taking just 26 the past two seasons combined.

Going 9-3 is nothing to scoff at in a coaching transition but Wisconsin had to feel an opportunity was missed this season with a favorable schedule that featured Maryland and Rutgers from the B1G East and a West division that didn’t appear to have a clear contender. Wisconsin’s three losses came to a 12-1 Alabama team, a 12-1 Iowa team, and a 10-2 Northwestern team and the case can easily be made that the Badgers deserved to win both of the conference games they lost. Wisconsin lost 10-6 hosting Iowa with four costly turnovers as the eventual B1G West champions won despite posting just 221 yards. Wisconsin allowed just 209 yards in the 13-7 defeat vs. Northwestern with the Badgers having three touchdowns called back in the game in a controversial finish.

Wisconsin’s defense wound up leading the nation with just 13.1 points per game allowed as the defense certainly kept the season alive for the Badgers in what could have been a much tougher transition season. Wisconsin was third in the nation in yards per game allowed compared to a USC defense that finished the season ranked 70th. Wisconsin allowed 1.3 yards per play fewer than USC but the Trojans were a full yard better per play on offense. USC also played one of the nation’s absolute toughest schedules with non-conference games vs. Notre Dame and Sun Belt champion Arkansas State as well as 10 Pac-12 games with the conference’s clear worst team Oregon State missing in the conference draw.

USC expected to be in a bigger spotlight but having Helton planted as the head coach moving forward as well as Tee Martin recently announced as the offensive coordinator next season should help the stability of the program in the bowl season. The Trojans haven’t been in a major bowl game since the 2008 Rose Bowl and this will be a second straight Holiday Bowl appearance as the team beat Nebraska from the B1G West last season, blowing a big lead to hold on 45-42 while allowing 525 yards. Wisconsin has been in the Rose Bowl three of the last five years but drawing a program of USC’s stature should keep the interest high despite also having a somewhat disappointing season. Last season the Badgers beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl to end a four game bowl slide in what usually has been tight and dramatic finishes in postseason games with eight of the last nine Wisconsin bowl games decided by 10 or fewer points.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

Matchup Skinny Edge



MEMPHIS vs. AUBURN (Birmingham Bowl)
Gus Malzahn 2-10 vs. spread this season, , 2-15 last 17 on board, 4-19 last 23 vs. spread since early 2014. Memphis 5-0-1 last six as dog and won and covered its bowl vs. BYU LY.

Memphis, based on recent Auburn woes.


NC STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Belk Bowl)
MSU 2-3 vs. line last five bowls, and Dan Mullen just 9-9-1 last 19 games on board since mid 2014. Wolfpack 0-4 as dog TY though have covered 8 of last 10 away from Raleigh and are 12-6 last 18 on board.

Slight to NCS, based on team trends.


LOUISVILLE vs. TEXAS A&M (Music City Bowl)
Petrino a very middling 13-12 vs. spread since his return to the ‘Ville and just 2-6 vs. spread in bowls during his career (0-4 as bowl dog). Kevin Sumlin 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line in bowls, and Ags just 12-21 last 33 vs. spread since early 2013.

Slight to A&M, based on bowl trends.


WISCONSIN vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Holiday Bowl)
Badgers 3-1-1 vs. line last five as bowl dog. Wiscy 11-5 last 16 as dog (though 0-1 TY). Paul Chryst right around .500 in almost all spread categories in his career. Trojans 1-2 vs. line last three bowls, 3-8 vs. points last 11 away from Coliseum.

Wisconsin, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 30

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Game of the Day: Wednesday's college football bowl betting preview
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The Trojans covered the spread just once (versus UCLA) in their final five games this season.


Birmingham Bowl

Game played at Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

Auburn Tigers vs. Memphis Tigers (+3, 63)

BIRMINGHAM BOWL STORYLINES

1. Memphis will head into bowl season without the head coach that guided them into the College Football Playoff Rankings before a late-season swoon. Justin Fuente took the vacant head coaching job at Virginia Tech, and the Tigers brought in former Arizona State offensive coordinator Mike Norvell on a five-year contract to be the new coach, but interim coach Darrell Dickey will guide Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., against Auburn on Dec. 30. Dickey is expected to remain with the program as part of Norvell’s staff moving forward.

2. Auburn had big expectations heading into the season but ended up falling off the pace as Jeremy Johnson struggled early at quarterback and eventually lost the job before regaining it down the stretch. The junior threw for two touchdowns and rushed for two more in a 56-34 win over Idaho on Nov. 21 that gained the team bowl eligibility but struggled again in a loss to Alabama the next week. Johnson threw only one of his seven interceptions on the season in the final four games.

3. Memphis will have the best quarterback on the field in senior Paxton Lynch, who might be the top quarterback taken in this spring’s NFL draft. Lynch threw for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions, with seven of those TDs coming on nine completions in a 63-0 victory over SMU in the regular-season finale. Lynch guided an offense that averaged 510.4 yards and 42.7 points.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Auburn as 2.5-point faves, but that has moved to -3. The total is down to 63 from the opening 64.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-50s with a 98 percent chance of thunderstorms.

TRENDS:

* Auburn Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Memphis Tigers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight vs. SEC.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Auburn Tigers last 10 Bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Memphis Tigers last 5 Bowl games.



Belk Bowl

Game played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6, 60)

BELK BOWL STORYLINES

1. A pair of potent offenses and dual-threat quarterbacks square off when Mississippi State takes on North Carolina State in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, N.C. Both teams average more than 400 total yards and 33 points per game, and their talented quarterbacks are the catalysts. Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott has passed for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for 541 yards and 10 more scores; N.C. State’s Jacoby Brissett has rolled up 2,448 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 303 yards and five TDs on the ground.

2. N.C. State should enjoy a de facto home-field advantage. The Wolfpack are playing a short distance from home and have 15 players from the Charlotte area, including TE/FB Jaylen Samuels (315 rushing yards, 7 TDs; 64 receptions, 599 yards, 7 TDs). It will be the third time the Wolfpack have played in the bowl, where they defeated Louisville 31-24 in 2011 and beat South Florida 14-0 in the 2005 game, then known as the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

3. Both coaches have enjoyed success in bowl games. Dan Mullen has MIssissippi State in its sixth bowl in seven years and has posted a 3-2 record, though the Bulldogs have lost two of their last three bowls – including a 49-34 loss to Georgia Tech in last year’s Orange Bowl. N.C. State’s Dave Doeren is 2-0 in bowl games, including a 34-27 win over UCF in last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl – his first postseason trip with the Wolfpack.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Mississippi State as a 7-point fave, but that is now -6. The total is up to 60 from the opening 59.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-60s with a 100 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at around seven mph.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC.
* Over is 4-0 in Wolfpack last four neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six non-conference games.



Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Game played at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 47)

FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Texas A&M will have a new quarterback when it faces Louisville in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 in Nashville, Tenn. Sophomore Kyle Allen and freshman Kyler Murray, who combined for 2,896 yards, 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while splitting time this year, announced they were transferring out of Texas A&M as the Aggies began bowl preparations. Sophomore Jake Hubenak (a transfer from Blinn Junior College) is the only other Aggies quarterback to throw a pass this season.

2. The Cardinals, won five of their last six games to qualify coach Bobby Petrino for a school-record sixth bowl appearance, also used two starting quarterbacks this season. Dual-threat freshman Lamar Jackson led the Cardinals in rushing yards (734) and touchdowns (nine) in 11 appearances and six starts. Sophomore Kyle Bolin is a pocket-passer and threw for 1,154 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions.

3. The pressure will be on the two defenses to slow these offenses full of talented, young skill players. The Aggies rank third nationally in tackles for loss - led by Myles Garrett's SEC-best 18.5 - and held teams to 161.2 passing yards. Devonte Fields had 19.5 tackles for loss while the Cardinals ranked 13th in total defense (323.4).

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Louisville as a 3-point dog but that has moved all the way to Louisville -4.5. The total has come down to 47 from the opening 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-40s with a 38 percent chance of rain early on.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. SEC.
* Under is 4-0 in Aggies last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last four games overall.



Holiday Bowl

Game played at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

USC Trojans vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+3.5, 50.5)

1. One month after Clay Helton was hired as the permanent head coach at USC, he'll experience his first bowl game when the Trojans meet Wisconsin in the Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 30. Helton was hired Nov. 30, two days after USC beat rival UCLA to advance to the Pac-12 championship game, but the Trojans lost to Stanford and ended up in San Diego rather than at the coveted Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Helton fired several of his assistants in the week following his hiring, which could leave the Trojans vulnerable in certain areas.

2. If the Trojans hope to extend their all-time record to 7-0 against Wisconsin, they'll need to find a way to protect quarterback Cody Kessler. USC has allowed 35 sacks this season, which is tied for eighth-most in the Pac-12, and the Badgers have a premier pass rusher in outside linebacker Joe Schobert. He has produced 18.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks and forced five fumbles, which ties the single-season program record; he could turn it into a long night for Kessler.

3. Wisconsin hasn't defeated a team with a winning record this season, losing a pair of nail-biters to Iowa and Northwestern, the teams that finished ahead of the Badgers in the West Division of the Big Ten. If they hope to get their first win against a team with a winning record, they'll likely need another big game from running back Dare Ogunbowale, who carried the ball 33 times in the regular-season finale against Minnesota, totaling a career-high 155 yards and a touchdown. There's also a possibility that injury-plagued but talented running back Corey Clement could be available, though he wasn't practicing with the team earlier in the month, instead working with the strength and conditioning staff.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Trojans as 3-point faves, but that has moved to -3.5. The total remains at the opening number of 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-50s under clear skies.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Trojans last eight non-conference games.
* Under is 7-3 in Badgers last 10 games overall.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, December 30

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MEMPHIS (9 - 3) vs. AUBURN (6 - 6) - 12/30/2015, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
AUBURN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
AUBURN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
AUBURN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
AUBURN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NC STATE (7 - 5) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4) - 12/30/2015, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NC STATE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOUISVILLE (7 - 5) vs. TEXAS A&M (8 - 4) - 12/30/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WISCONSIN (9 - 3) vs. USC (8 - 5) - 12/30/2015, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
WISCONSIN is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wed - Dec, 30

Memphis at Auburn, 12:00 ET
Memphis: 34-18 ATS in road games in games played on turf
Auburn: 3-11 ATS after playing a conference game

North Carolina State at Mississippi State, 3:30 ET
N Carolina St: 1-8 ATS after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
Mississippi St: 6-0 ATS after playing a game at home

Louisville at Texas AM, 7:00 ET
Louisville: 12-3 UNDER after outgaining opp by 125 or + total yds in previous game
Texas AM: 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Wisconsin at USC, 10:30 ET
Wisconsin: 60-38 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game
USC: 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6

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Birmingham Bowl: Wednesday, December 30

Auburn Tigers: The Tigers are an abysmal 5-18 ATS over their last 23 games overall and 0-8 ATS over their last eight non-conference matchups.

Memphis Tigers: Led by one of the top signal-callers in the country in Paxton Lynch, Memphis burst from the gates in early September with eight consecutive victories. But the Tigers faltered down the stretch in the face of quality competition with losses to Navy, Houston and Temple before defeating SMU in the season finale. However, be advised that this program is still 18-7-2 ATS over its last 27 non-conference showdowns.


Belk Bowl: Wednesday, December 30

North Carolina State Wolfpack: The Wolfpack are 5-1-1 ATS over their last seven bowl games, but concluded the 2015 campaign with just one ATS win in their final five outings.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Despite approximately 76 percent of the early spread bets coming in on Mississippi State, the line for the 2015 Belk Bowl hasn’t budged from its opening position of MSU -5. Note that Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in postseason play.


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Wednesday, December 30

Texas A&M Aggies: While Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin is 4-1 both SU and ATS during his career in bowl games, be advised that the point spread for this contest has moved drastically, with Texas A&M going from a 3-point favorite to a 1.5-point underdog as of publication. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Aggies went just 1-6 ATS over their final seven games of the season.

Louisville Cardinals: The Cardinals are 6-2 ATS over their last eight matchups with SEC opponents. However, note that head coach Bobby Petrino is just 2-6 ATS in postseason play.


Holiday Bowl: Wednesday, December 30

USC Trojans: USC head coach Clay Helton went just 1-4 ATS over his final five games of the season before firing his entire defensive coaching staff after watching his squad get dismantled 41-22 by Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game. However, USC is 9-3 ATS over its last 12 meetings against Big Ten competition.

Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers are just 1-5 ATS over their last six neutral-site games, which may serve as one reason why only 21 percent of all spread bets placed on this game at the time of publication came in on Wisconsin.

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Louisville @ Texas A&M

Game 253-254
December 30, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisville
92.343
Texas A&M
95.485
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas A&M
by 3
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 1 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas A&M
(+1 1/2); Under

Wisconsin @ USC

Game 255-256
December 30, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
95.873
USC
96.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 3 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(+3 1/2); Under

Memphis @ Auburn

Game 249-250
December 30, 2015 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
91.981
Auburn
96.833
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 5
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 2 1/2
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Auburn
(-2 1/2); Over

NC State @ Mississippi St

Game 251-252
December 30, 2015 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC State
92.134
Mississippi St
99.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi St
by 8
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi St
by 5
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi St
(-5); Over

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Wednesday, December 30

12:00 PM
AUBURN vs. MEMPHIS
Auburn is 2-14-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Auburn is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games

3:30 PM
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
North Carolina State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina State's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:00 PM
TEXAS A&M vs. LOUISVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas A&M's last 6 games
Texas A&M is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Louisville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games

10:30 PM
SOUTHERN CAL vs. WISCONSIN
Southern Cal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Southern Cal is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Wisconsin's last 10 games
Wisconsin is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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[StarDust Bum]

CFB FIRST HALF

CFB > (255) WISCONSIN@ (256) USC | 2015-12-30 22:30:00 - 2015-12-30 22:30:00
Play ON USC ?>in the first halfin All games off a loss against a conference rival
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

[StarDust Bum]

TOP POWER LINES

Users of our matchup reports are familiar with our Power Line ratings, calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current line.

CFB > (249) MEMPHIS @ (250) AUBURN | 2015-12-30 12:00:00 - 2015-12-30 12:00:00
Line: MEMPHIS BTB PowerLine: MEMPHIS-1
Edge On: MEMPHIS (2.5)

CFB > (251) NC STATE @ (252) MISSISSIPPI ST | 2015-12-30 15:30:00 - 2015-12-30 15:30:00
Line: MISSISSIPPI ST-6 BTB PowerLine: MISSISSIPPI ST-10
Edge On: MISSISSIPPI ST (4)

CFB > (253) LOUISVILLE @ (254) TEXAS A&M | 2015-12-30 19:00:00 - 2015-12-30 19:00:00
Line: TEXAS A&M4.5 BTB PowerLine: TEXAS A&M-6
Edge On: TEXAS A&M (10.5)

CFB > (255) WISCONSIN @ (256) USC | 2015-12-30 22:30:00 - 2015-12-30 22:30:00
Line: USC-3.5 BTB PowerLine: USC-7
Edge On: USC (3.5)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Birmingham Bowl, Dec 30

Memphis is 9-3 this year, 19-6 last two years, after being 12-48 in previous five years, but they lost Fuente to Va Tech; they've got best QB on field in senior Lynch. Tigers won bowl LY over BYU in OT; they're 2-0 as underdogs this year. Auburn lost 34-31 each of last two bowl games; four of their last five bowls were decided by exactly three points. Malzahn is 0-2 in bowl games. SEC teams won/covered this bowl as favorites last three years. AAC squads are 1-5 in bowls this year, 2-9 last two years; they covered once in last six games as a bowl underdog.

Belk Bowl, Charlotte

NC State figures to have crowd edge with game in Charlotte, but SEC teams are 24-15-1 as bowl favorites last six years. In last four years, SEC teams are 7-3 vs ACC in bowl games. Last three years, ACC teams are 11-15 SU in bowls. NC State won three of last four bowls; Doeren is 2-0 in bowls. Wolfpack has senior QB who used to play at Florida, so SEC foe won't scare him. Prescott is a senior QB who is 18-7 last two years. Bulldogs are 3-2 in last five bowls, but were favored in all five games. NC State is 0-4 vs spread as an underdog this year, losing all four games by 11+ points.

Music City Bowl, Nashville

Extreme weirdness for Texas A&M, with top two QBs bolting out of school since regular season ended; #3 QB Hubenak was JC QB LY who is 12-27/92 in cameo action TY. Louisville is 7-2 in its last nine games after an 0-3 start; they're 1-5 vs bowl teams this year, four of its last six games were by 7 or less points. Aggies scored 42.8 ppg, in winning last four bowl games; they're 3-4 last seven games after a 5-0 start, giving up 230+ YR in those games. Sumlin is 4-1 in bowls overall. SEC teams won this bowl three of last four years; favorites covered four of last six. Petrino is 4-4 in bowls; Cardinals are 3-2 in last five bowls.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego

Pac-12 teams are 5-1 in bowls this year (4-2 vs spread); last three years, they're 14-10-1 as bowl favorites. USC won four of last five bowls, scoring 45 in last two. Last four years, Big 14 teams are 15-7-2 vs spread as bowl underdogs. Last three years, Pac-12 teams are 3-2 vs Big 14 in bowls. Trojan coach Helton won bowl game as interim coach in '13; USC won five of last seven games after a 3-3 start- they allowed 41+ points in last three losses. Wisconsin is on third coach in four years; they're 1-4 in last five bowls, winning in OT LY. Favorites are 13-11 vs spread in bowls; over is 16-8.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 30


The Wolfpack are 5-1-1 ATS over their last 7 bowl games, but concluded the 2015 campaign with just one ATS win in their final 5 outings.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


AUB at MEM 12:00 PM

MEM +5.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 63.0 DOUBLE PLAY



NCST at MSST 03:30 PM

MSST -5.5 TRIPLE PLAY

O 60.5 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TAM at LOU 07:00 PM

TAM +3.0 UPSET

U 49.5 DOUBLE PLAY



USC at WIS 10:30 PM

USC -3.5 BLOW OUT

U 50.0 BLOW OUT

[StarDust Bum]

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
December 30, 2015

**Houston vs. Florida State**

-- Florida State (10-2 straight up, against the spread) will make its first Chick-Fil-A Bowl appearance since 2010 on Thursday afternoon when it takes on the AAC champion, Houston, at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. As of Wednesday, most books had the Seminoles listed as seven-point favorites with a total of 55 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Cougars were +225 on the money line (risk $100 to win $225).

-- Houston (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) won the AAC Championship Game by beating Temple by a 24-13 count as a 5.5-point home favorite. Greg Ward led he way by rushing for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries.

-- Tom Herman’s team went unbeaten with Ward in the lineup. When Ward was injured and played sparingly, UH took its only loss of the year 20-17 at UConn. The Cougars were minus four in the turnover department against the Huskies. Ward attempted just four passes and didn’t have a rush while nursing a knee injury.

-- Houston was an underdog twice during the regular season, winning outright in both spots. The Cougars won a 34-31 decision at Louisville as 13.5-point ‘dogs in Week 2. Then in the regular-season finale, they thumped Navy 52-31 as one-point home puppies.

-- UH went 6-1 SU against seven bowl-bound opponents, including not-yet-mentioned scalps of Memphis, Cincinnati and Tulsa.

-- Ward was tabbed as a member of the All-AAC second-team because he played in a league that also included Navy’s Keenan Reynolds and Memphis’s Paxton Lynch. Ward completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,589 yards with a 16/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for a team-best 1,047 yards and 19 TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

-- UH senior RB Kenneth Farrow was on his way to a second straight season with 1,000-plus rushing yards, but he injured his foot at UConn and had to miss the wins over Navy and Temple. Nevertheless, Farrow rushed for 949 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. He is ‘probable’ vs. FSU and expected to start.

-- Ward’s favorite target is Demarcus Ayers, a junior WR who earned first-team All-AAC honors. Ayers hauled in 88 receptions for 1,139 yards and six TDs. Junior Chance Allen made 52 catches for 693 yards and four TDs.

-- Jimbo Fisher’s team won its first six games before losing a heartbreaker at Georgia Tech on a return of a blocked field goal on the game’s final play. Two weeks later, the Seminoles dropped a 23-13 decision at Clemson, but they did take the cash as 12-point ‘dogs.

-- FSU closed the regular season with three consecutive wins and five straight spread covers. The ‘Noles captured a 27-2 win at Florida as 2.5-point road favorites in the regular-season finale. Dalvin Cook didn’t do much for three quarters, but he exploded for 150 rushing yards and a pair of TDs in the final stanza. He finished the game with 26 carries for 183 yards. Sean Maguire completed 14-of-28 passes for 160 yards and one TD without an interception.

-- Cook earned first-team All-ACC honors by rushing for 1,658 yards and 18 TDs with a 7.9 YPC average. Cook, a true sophomore who will return in 2016, also had 22 catches for 218 yards and one TD.

-- Maguire has been the starting QB for the last five games. In fact, Everett Golson didn’t even make the trip to Atlanta for personal reasons. For the season, Maguire completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 1,128 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio.

-- FSU has a trio of excellent wideouts. Kermit Whitfield had a team-best 53 receptions for 742 yards and six TDs, while Travis Rudolph had 52 catches for 715 yards and six TDs. Jesus Wilson caught 50 balls for 554 yards and two TDs.

-- FSU owns a 4-2 spread record in six games as a single-digit favorite this year.

-- FSU’s senior class is attempting to become the first in FBS history to win 50 games in a four-year span.

-- FSU is fifth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 15.8 points per game. The ‘Noles are 16th in total defense, 19th against the pass. The secondary is led by junior CB Jalen Ramsey, who tallied 43 tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack, 10 passes broken up and one fumble recovery for a 36-yard TD return.

-- FSU starting OT Chad Mavety is ‘out’ due to an illness.

-- Houston is bowling for a third straight season. The Cougars lost 41-24 to Vanderbilt at the Compass Bowl two season ago. They edged Pitt 35-34 as 3.5-point underdogs at last year’s Armed Forces Bowl.

-- UH ranks second in the nation with a plus-17 turnover margin. The defense recorded 30 takeaways.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for FSU, cashing at a 3-1 clip in its last four games.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5-1 overall for the Cougars, hitting at a 5-1 pace in their last six outings.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

FSU battles Houston
December 29, 2015


HOUSTON COUGARS (12-1) vs. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (10-2)

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Thursday, Noon ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Florida State -6.5, Total: 55.5

Atlanta plays host to a rockin’ New Year’s Eve match between dynamic No. 18 Houston and streaking No. 9 Florida State, winners of three straight, in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

This game between the Cougars (12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS) and Seminoles (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) marks the first meeting between the schools in over 35 years, with Houston holding a commanding 12-2-2 SU edge over Florida State in 16 matches throughout the 1960s and 1970s.

Both teams have betting trends running in their favor in this game. The Cougars are 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons, and 11-2 ATS away from home after an SU win over the same time period. The Seminoles are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in four or five out of their previous six games over the past three years, and bettors may note that it has paid off 44-14 ATS over the past 10 seasons to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (like Houston) who are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals when they face an opponent (like Florida State) who is playing on the heels of a double-digit road win.

Injuries may be a major factor in this contest, as both schools are hampered by maladies. DB Jeremy Winchester (MCL), backup QB Kyle Postma (knee), OL Colton Freeman (stinger), OG Ben Dew (toe), and RB Ryan Jackson (collarbone) are questionable to play for the Cougars, but the good news is that star RB Kenneth Farrow (ankle) and DB Howard Wilson (knee) have both been upgraded to probable.

The Seminoles have listed LB Lorenzo Phillips (knee) and WR Ermon Lane (knee) as doubtful to play, while TE Jeremy Kerr (concussion), DB Marcus Lewis (concussion), LB Terrance Smith (ankle), LB Reggie Northrup (flu), and OL Chad Mavety (flu) are questionable. The biggest absence will be that of QB Everett Golson though as he did not make the trip to Atlanta due to personal issues.

Houston’s offense has been prolific on the season, generating an impressive 40.6 PPG (12th in nation) and 487 total YPG. QB Greg Ward Jr. and RB Kenneth Farrow are the unquestioned leaders of the 12-win Cougars squad. Ward has completed 206-of-304 passes (67.8%), amassing 2,589 yards, 16 TD and 5 INT through the air, while leading the team with 1,047 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground – good for third-best in the nation.

Farrow has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but is expected to return in time for New Year’s Eve. The team’s production has suffered a bit in Farrow’s absence, posting 31.0 PPG and 404 YPG over their past three matchups.

Furthermore, this Houston squad is no slouch on defense. The team gives up just 20.5 PPG (25th in FBS) and 381 total YPG, and has performed slightly better on the road this season (18.4 PPG, 341.6 YPG). The unit has generated a healthy 30 turnovers this year, with four games of four takeaways. However, the Seminoles are rarely bit by the turnover bug, as they have seven giveaway-free contests in 2015.

The lack of turnovers has made Florida State’s offense above average this year, producing 32.3 PPG (45th in nation) and 425 total YPG. The team has increased its output to 37.7 PPG in its past three games, but has found itself struggling on the road, averaging a dismal 18.8 PPG and 298 total YPG.

RB Dalvin Cook is the centerpiece of the Seminoles’ offense, leading the ACC in touchdowns (19), rushing yards (1,658), and yards from scrimmage (1,876), and earning the conference record for rushing yards per attempt over a collegiate career (7.0).

The Seminoles’ defense is one of the best in the nation, allowing a scant 15.8 PPG (5th in FBS) and 328 total YPG, and the squad has been on fire recently, holding its opponents to 10.7 PPG and 277 total YPG over its three-game win streak to close out the regular season. This has occurred despite a low amount of takeaways (four) in the past five games, and Houston's offense has multiple turnovers in just 3-of-13 games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Semifinals
December 30, 2015

**Clemson vs. Oklahoma**

-- Clemson is the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, facing fourth-seeded Oklahoma on New Year’s Eve at the Capital One Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens. As of Wednesday, most spots had OU favored by four points with a total of 64. The Tigers were +160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

-- Oklahoma (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) is gunning for its first national championship since beating FSU 13-2 in the BCS Championship Game at this same venue in January of 2001. That victory over the ‘Noles came in just the second season of Bob Stoops’s tenure. Clemson is looking for its first national title since 1981 when it beat Nebraska 22-15 in the Orange Bowl under the direction of Danny Ford.

-- Clemson (13-0 SU, 6-7 ATS) won the ACC Championship Game by winning a 45-37 decision over North Carolina in Charlotte. The Tigers covered the number as 6.5-point ‘chalk,’ while the 82 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 67.5-point total. Sophomore QB Deshaun Watson was the catalyst, accounting for five TDs and 420 yards from scrimmage. Watson completed 26-of-42 throws for 289 yards and three TDs compared to one interception. He ran 24 times for 131 yards and two TDs. Wayne Gallman produced 187 rushing yards and one TD on 28 totes. The sophomore RB also had four receptions for 68 yards and one TD. Artavis Scott had seven catches for 96 yards and one TD.

-- For the season, Watson connected on 69.5 percent of his passes for 3,517 yards with a 30/11 TD-INT ratio. Watson also gets it done with his legs, rushing for 887 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.4 YPC. Gallman has rushed for a team-high 1,319 yards and 10 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average.

-- Scott is Watson’s top target, hauling in 84 receptions for 805 yards and five TDs. Jordan Leggett has 34 catches for 442 yards and a team-best seven TD grabs. Charone Peake has 40 catches for 563 yards and five TDs.

-- Clemson owns seven wins over bowl-bound foes, including victories at Miami (58-0), at North Carolina State (56-41), vs. Notre Dame (24-22) and at Louisville (20-17).

-- Clemson is suddenly dealing with a major distraction after announcing the suspensions of three players on Wednesday morning. The most significant loss is that of WR Deon Cain, who has made 34 receptions for 582 yards and five TDs. Cain won’t play in the CFP finals if Clemson advances, either. The players violated unspecified team rules.

-- Oklahoma has nine wins by double-digit margins. The Sooners went unbeaten in nine games against bowl-bound opponents. They suffered their lone loss of the year by a 24-17 score against Texas.

-- OU’s top wins include victories at Baylor (44-24), at Oklahoma State (58-23), at Kansas State (55-0), at Tennessee (31-24 in overtime), vs. TCU (30-29) and vs. West Virginia (44-24).

-- As this space noted this past summer, Stoops made a brilliant hire when he plucked offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley away from East Carolina. Riley’s Air-Raid offense at ECU led QB Shane Carden and Justin Hardy to the top of the record books in the program’s history. In fact, Hardy became the all-time leading receiver at ECU before his senior season even started, while Carden surpassed all the records previously set by long-time NFL veteran QB David Garrard.

-- Riley’s impact on the offense was instant and spectacular. OU finished second in the nation in scoring, averaging 45.8 PPG. The Sooners rank sixth in total offense and sophomore QB Baker Mayfield enjoyed a breakout campaign. The transfer from Texas Tech has connected on 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards with a 35/5 TD-INT ratio. Mayfield is a dynamic scrambler as well, rushing for 420 yards and seven TDs.

-- Oklahoma sophomore RB Samaje Perine enjoyed another outstanding season, rushing for 1,291 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC. If Perine can match his 2015 numbers as a junior, he’ll surpass the great Billy Sims as OU’s all-time leading rusher. Joe Washington, the former Washington Redskins RB who often subbed for John Riggins in 3rd-and-long situation, ranks second on OU’s all-time rushing list, while Adrian Peterson is third.

-- OU has one of the country’s top wideouts in Sterling Shepard, who has 79 receptions for 1,201 yards and 11 TDs. Dede Westbrook, a true freshman, has 42 catches for 674 yards and four TDs.

-- Oklahoma owns a 4-0 spread record as a single-digit ‘chalk’ this season.

-- Clemson is in the underdog role for the first time this season. The last time the Tigers were underdogs was last year’s Orange Bowl where they smashed Oklahoma by a 40-6 count as five-point puppies. With Watson out with an injured knee, Cliff Stoudt threw for 319 yards and three TDs without an interception. Scott had eight receptions for 114 yards and one TD, while the defense forced five interceptions, including a 47-yard pick-six by Ben Boulware.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-4 overall for OU, hitting at an 8-2 clip since the ‘under’ appeared in its first two games.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for Clemson after cashing at a 7-2 clip in its last nine games.

-- ESPN will provide television coverage at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Alabama vs. Michigan State**

-- Alabama and Michigan State are seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, going into the CFP semifinals. These schools will collide at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Thursday night for an 8:00 p.m. Eastern kick on ESPN. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 45.5 points. The Spartans were +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).

-- Alabama won the SEC for a second straight season and the third time in four years by collecting a 29-15 win over Florida at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta earlier this month. The Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread as a 16.5-point favorite. Derrick Henry rushed for 189 yards and one TD on 44 workmanlike carries. Jake Coker completed 18-of-26 passes for 204 yards and two TDs without an interception. Calvin Ridley had eight receptions for 102 yards, while Ardarius Steward had four catches for 64 yards, including a 32-yard TD grab in major traffic that gave the Tide its first two-possession lead (22-7) of the game late in the third quarter.

-- Henry won the Heisman Trophy, becoming the second player in Alabama’s storied football history to do so. The true junior was spectacular all season, rushing for 1,986 yards and 23 TDs while averaging 5.9 YPC. Henry also has 10 catches for 97 yards. He came up big in the biggest games, producing 271 rushing yards at Auburn, 236 at Texas A&M, 210 vs. LSU and 204 at Mississippi State. Henry ran for at least two TDs in seven different games.

-- Coker struggled in September, but he has played much better down the stretch. For the season, the FSU transfer has completed 65.7 percent of his throws for 2,489 yards with a 17/8 TD-INT ratio. Coker has five TD passes without an interception in the last three games.

-- Coker has one of the nation’s top group of wideouts, including freshman sensation Calvin Ridley. The five-star recruit has been as advertised, bringing down a team-high 75 receptions for 893 yards and five TDs. Stewart has 54 catches for 600 yards and four TDs.

-- Don’t be surprised if versatile RB/WR Kenyan Drake is a major part of Lane Kiffin’s offensive gameplan. Drake broke his arm in early November at Mississippi State and wasn’t much of a factor when he returned against the Gators. For the season, Drake produced 906 all-purpose yards and two TDs. Those stats don’t do the senior playmaker justice, however. Drake has 22 career TDs and 1,434 career rushing yards.

-- Since losing 43-37 at home to Ole Miss in Week 3, Alabama has won 10 in a row. Nine of those victories have come by margins of 13 points or more. The Tide’s toughest test since the Rebels came in a 19-14 non-covering home win over Tennessee when Henry’s TD late in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference.

-- Michigan State (12-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) is led by senior QB Connor Cook, who has a 24/5 TD-INT ratio. For his career, Cook has thrown 71 TD passes compared to just 20 interceptions. The Spartans are 34-4 in Cook’s 38 career starts. He has completed 56.9 percent of his passes this year for 2,911 yards.

-- Cook’s favorite target is Aaron Burbridge, who has 79 catches for 1,209 yards and seven TDs. Macgarrett Kings has 38 receptions for 492 yards and five TDs, while R.J. Shelton has 41 grabs for 484 yards and four TDs. Cook likes to look for junior TE Josiah Price down in the red zone. Price has a team-best six TD catches.

-- The departure of workhorse RB Jeremy Langford led to a three-man platoon system that has proven to be effective this year. True freshman L.J. Scott has rushed for a team-high 691 yards and 11 TDs with a 4.9 YPC average. Gerald Holmes has run for 534 yards and eight TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC, while Madre London has 489 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.3 YPC average.

-- Michigan State won outright at Ohio St. without Cook, who didn’t play due to an injured shoulder. The Spartans won 17-14 thanks to a dominant defensive performance, as they held the Buckeyes to merely 132 yards of total offense. They wrapped up the Big Ten East title by beating Penn St. 55-16 as 7.5-point home favorite on Nov. 28.

-- Michigan State won the Big Ten Championship Game 16-13 over Iowa as a three-point ‘chalk.’ Trailing 13-9 with less than 10 minutes left against the then-unbeaten Hawkeyes, Cook led the Spartans on a 22-play, 82-yard drive that consumed more than nine minutes of clock. Scott broke multiple tackles before lunging into the end zone from one yard out with 27 seconds left for the game-winning score. Several plays before, Cook ran for two yards on a QB sneak from inside the five on fourth and one. Cook had crucial completions to Price for 13 yards and Burbridge for 16 yards during the game-winning march.

-- Michigan State has been an underdog 17 times since 2011, compiling an incredible 14-3 spread record with 11 outright victories. The Spartans have won four straight bowl games as underdogs, including last year’s 42-41 comeback win over Baylor as 2.5-point ‘dogs at the Cotton Bowl. They trailed by 20 early in the fourth quarter before rallying for the thrilling victory.

-- Michigan St. owns quality wins galore, including victories vs. Oregon (31-28), at Michigan (27-23) and vs. Indiana (52-26). The Spartans’ only loss came in controversial fashion when Nebraska won a 39-38 decision in Lincoln thanks to a long pass in which the receiver caught the ball after going out of bounds.

-- Alabama’s stop unit is led by All-American LB Reggie Ragland, who has a team-high 90 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, six passes broken up and six QB hurries. Junior DE Jonathan Allen has a team-best 10 sacks, while junior safety Eddie Jackson has a team-high five interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes. The Tide ranks third in the country in scoring defense, limiting opponents to just 14.4 PPG. They are second in total defense, first versus the run and 18th against the pass.

-- Michigan State is ranked No. 21 in the country in scoring defense, giving up 20.5 PPG. The Spartans are 24th in total defense and most important, they are ninth in rush defense, allowing 113.1 yards per game. When they faced an elite RB like Henry at Ohio State, Ezekiel Elliott was held to a season-low 33 rushing yards on 12 carries. Elliott ran for at least 101 yards in every other game for the Buckeyes this year.

-- These teams met at the 2010 Capital One Bowl in Orlando. Alabama cruised on that New Year's Day to a 49-7 win as an eight-point favorite.

-- Michigan State has played at this venue once in the aforementioned win over Baylor last season. Alabama has opened the season here twice, thumping Michigan in 2012 and Wisconsin (35-17) earlier this year.

-- MSU head coach Mark Dantonio served as an assistant on Nick Saban's staff in East Lansing from 1995-1999.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the Spartans, cashing at a 3-1 clip in their last four outings. This is MSU’s third-lowest total of the season. The ‘over’ has been a winner in both of its previous games that had a total in the 40s.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-5 overall for Alabama, but it has seen the ‘over’ hit in two of its last three games. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Tide’s five games that had totals in the 40s.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31

Matchup Skinny Edge


HOUSTON vs. FLORIDA STATE (Peach Bowl)

Cougs had covered 10 straight and 17 of 18 away from home prior to UConn loss on Nov. 21. Cougs 27-13-1 vs. spread since late 2012. Jimbo no covers last two bowls though Noles did make a pointspread turnaround late in 2015 when covering last five. FSU was 6-16 vs. spread in 22 prior games.

Houston, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE vs. ALABAMA (Cotton Bowl)

Nick Saban beat old employer MSU in 49-7 romp in Capital One Bowl after 2010 season. Nick no wins or covers last two bowls but had won and covered four previous. Tide covered five of six away from Tuscaloosa this season. Dantonio covered 5 of last 7 in 2015 after slow start vs. spread and is 18-7 vs. spread last 25 away from East Lansing. Also 10-1 last 11 as dog. Spartans have also won and covered last five bowls.

Slight to Michigan State, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA vs. CLEMSON (Orange Bowl)

Rematch of LY's Russell Athletic Bowl won big by Clemson, 40-6. Dabo has won and covered as dog vs. LSU, Ohio State, and OU in bowls the past three years. Dabo 8-4 as dog since 2011., though Clemson was on 4-game spread skid in 2-15 prior to ACC title narrow cover vs. Heels. Stoops 3-2 SU and vs. line last five bowls and covered 6 of last 7 down stretch. Sooners 11-5 vs. number last 16 away from Norman.

OU, based on recent trends.