The Bum's College Football Bowl Games Rated Plays, Trends, News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CONN at MRSH 11:00 AM

CONN +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY

U 43.5 TRIPLE PLAY


MIA at WSU 02:00 PM

WSU -2.5

U 63.0


WASH at SOMIS 02:20 PM

SOMIS +8.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 52.0


IND at DUKE 03:30 PM

DUKE +3.0 ******

O 72.5 DOUBLE PLAY


TLSA at VT 05:45 PM

VT -14.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 61.5


UCLA at NEB 09:15 PM

UCLA -5.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 62.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Alabama and Michigan St. return to Texas
December 26, 2015

DALLAS (AP) Alabama started its season in North Texas with a goal of coming back. Michigan State ended last season at the Cotton Bowl and the plan for this season was to return to play for even higher stakes.

Mission accomplished for both the Crimson Tide and Spartans.

''Yeah, this is where we wanted to be,'' Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland said Saturday. ''We fought hard all year, and now we're where we want to be, and in a position to win it all.''

The teams were in place and started practicing Saturday in the Dallas area for the College Football Playoff's Cotton Bowl semifinal. The third-seeded Spartans and No. 2 Tide will ring in the new year Thursday night at the home of the Dallas Cowboys.

Michigan State (12-1) arrived Friday night. Alabama (12-1) got in Saturday morning, leaving behind the severe weather that brought flooding and tornadoes in its home state to find some more ominous weather brewing in North Texas. The entire area was on a tornado watch for most of the afternoon and into the evening. Tornado and flash flood warnings dotted the counties around Dallas.

A few Crimson Tide players who went home from Christmas were delayed getting back to Tuscaloosa, but all the players expected to be on Alabama's team plane made it.

''Certainly was a difficult circumstance last night, but we didn't have any issues at least with the group that came with us, which was probably 90 percent of the guys,'' Tide coach Nick Saban said. A few players from this part of the country were allowed to meet the team in Texas, Saban said.

The local weather did not stop either team from practicing Saturday.

The Spartans worked out at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as scheduled and the Crimson Tide got their work in at Coppell High School, a bit north of Dallas.

A year ago, Michigan State faced Baylor in the Cotton Bowl and scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to wipe out a 20-point deficit and beat the Bears 42-41.

''Our goals are always trying to go a little bit farther,'' Spartans coach Mark Dantonio said. ''And last year the way the season wrapped up, big win in the Cotton Bowl. But at the same time, we weren't in the College Football Playoff, which our goal is always to win the Big Ten championship, which I believe should put you in that playoff, if you are fortunate enough to do that.''

Alabama began this season with a 35-17 victory at AT&T Stadium against Wisconsin, and went on to become the only team to repeat as a playoff participant. Big Ten champion Ohio State upset the Tide 42-35 in last year's semifinals at the Sugar Bowl.

''Everybody on the team knew that the leadership wasn't the right way, some guys can't say nothing about it. But now I can say something about it because I'm a leader,'' Ragland said about last year's loss. ''If I feel like I don't like something, I'm going to say it. If we need to do this, I'm going to say it. The guys on the team know we need to do this the right way. The right way gets it done. You can tell my guys are ready already.''

Alabama is a 10-point favorite against Michigan State this time, which works well for the Spartans.

''It's when we thrive,'' center Jack Allen said.

The teams were at one point scheduled to play and home-and-home series, starting in 2016 in Tuscaloosa. The Tide and former Michigan State coach Saban were to come to East Lansing, Michigan, in 2017. But in 2013, with the SEC considering adding a ninth conference game for future schedules, Alabama canceled the series.

''We wanted this since they were on our schedule,'' Michigan State defensive end Shilique Calhoun said. ''Then they were no longer on our schedule. The game got canceled. I guess. So this opportunity came to fruition. We were happy to have it.''

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 27, 2015


**Pittsburgh vs. Navy**

-- The location advantage certainly belong to Navy since it will be playing at home against Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman in Annapolis, MD. As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Navy (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of with a total of 53.5. The Panthers were +140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).

-- Navy senior quarterback Kennan Reynolds led Navy to a 10-win season in its first competing in the AAC. Reynolds is the best QB to play for the Naval Academy since Roger Staubach. His career numbers are just ridiculous: 4,415 rushing yards, 3,875 passing yards, 85 rushing touchdowns and a 30/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Reynolds is the academy’s all-time leading rusher and with 122 yards passing against Pitt, he’ll become third in all-time passing yards.

-- Reynolds completed 52-of-98 passes (53.1%) for 1,077 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio this year. He rushed 241 times for 1,229 yards and 21 TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. His favorite target is Jamir Tillman, who has 27 receptions for 570 yards and five TDs.

-- Navy’s second-leading rusher is Chris Swain, who has rushed for 909 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC. The Midshipmen are third in the nation in rushing, averaging 319.2 yards per game on the ground. They average 36.2 points per game.

-- Navy’s defense ranks 26th in the country in scoring, allowing just 21.3 PPG. This unit is 31st against the run and 43rd in total defense.

-- Navy faced seven bowl-bound teams, compiling a 5-2 record both SU and ATS. The Midshipmen lost 52-31 at Houston and 41-24 at Notre Dame.

-- Navy has thrived as a single-digit favorite, going 4-1 ATS. The Midshipmen are unbeaten in six home games, producing a 5-1 spread record.

-- Pittsburgh (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) finished second in the ACC Coastal in its first season on Pat Narduzzi’s watch. The Panthers have their most wins since 2010. They lost their regular-season finale 29-24 vs. Miami as seven-point home favorites.

-- In the loss to the Hurricanes, Pitt fell down 20-0 early in the second quarter. True freshman Darrin Hall rushed 12 times for 103 yards and one TD. Tyler Boyd had five receptions for 70 yards and 47 rushing yards on three carries. Nathan Peterman completed only 13-of-27 throws for 142 yards with one TD and one interception.

-- Peterman had an outstanding season. The transfer from Tennessee connected on 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,150 yards with a 19/5 TD-INT ratio. Boyd has 85 catches for 873 yards and six TDs. He earned All-ACC honors for a third straight season. Boyd tallied 1,424 all-purpose yards.

-- Pitt RB James Conner was a second-team All-American as a sophomore in 2014 when he rushed for 1,765 yards and 26 TDs. However, he went down with a season-ending injury in early September. Qadree Ollison stepped up and enjoyed a stellar redshirt freshman campaign, rushing for 1,048 yards and 10 TDs with a 5.1 YPC average.

-- Pitt has been an underdog six times, posting a 4-2 spread record with three outright victories.

-- Navy is gunning for its first 11-win season in program history. It will do so with eighth-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo, who was just given a raise after spurning overtures from BYU. Niumatalolo has the Midshipmen bowling for a fourth straight season. They have won the last two by beating San Diego St. (17-16 last year) and Middle Tennessee (24-6).

-- This is the eighth consecutive postseason appearance for the Panthers, who lost a 35-34 decision to Houston at last year’s Armed Forces Bowl.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall in Navy games, hitting at a 4-1 clip in its last five outings. The Midshipmen’s games have averaged combined scores of 57.5 points per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-5-1 overall for Pitt, 4-2 in its road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for Monday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Central Michigan vs. Minnesota**

-- The MAC and Big Ten will meet in Monday’s Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit, where Minnesota will take on Central Michigan. The Gophers are one of several teams taking advantage of a new rule allowing 5-7 teams to go bowling. As of Saturday night, most spots had Minnesota listed as a five-point favorite with a total of 49. The Chippewas were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Minnesota (5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS) has lost five of its last six games outright, but it has covered the number at a 4-1 ATS clip in its last five contests. The Gophers lost a 31-21 decision to Wisconsin at home in their regular-season finale.

-- Minnesota has been a single-digit favorite four times this year, going 2-2 ATS. The Gophers faced MAC foes twice during the regular season, beating No. Illinois 29-19 in Week 5 as one-point home underdogs. They slipped past Ball St. 23-21 but failed to cover as seven-point road ‘chalk.’

-- Minnesota has lost four of five games since Tracy Claeys replaced head coach Jerry Kill, who decided to resign due to health reasons. In fairness to Claeys, all four defeats came against bowl-bound foes with at least nine wins.

-- Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner has completed 57.8 percent of his passes for 2,478 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio. Leidner also ran for 251 yards and five TDs. His favorite target is K.J. Maye, who has 65 receptions for 706 yards and four TDs.

-- Minnesota’s leading rusher is Shannon Brooks, who has run for 644 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC.

-- Central Michigan (7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS) is bowling for a second straight season and the third time in the last four years. CMU pulled out one of the most improbable backdoor covers in postseason history at the Bahamas Bowl last year. The Chippewas trailed Western Ky. 49-14 early in the fourth quarter, but they scored 34 unanswered points, including a Hail Mary with a lateral to score in the game’s final play. Nevertheless, they lost 49-48 as 3.5-point underdogs when the subsequent two-point try failed.

-- Central Michigan has thrived as an underdog this season, compiling a 5-1 spread record.

-- CMU is led by junior QB Cooper Rush, who has connected on 67.2 percent of his passes this season. Rush has thrown for 3,708 yards with a 25/10 TD-INT ratio. Rush’s favorite target is senior WR Jesse Kroll, who has 59 receptions for 856 yards and four TDs. Anthony Rice has 56 grabs for 584 yards and four TDs, while Ben McCord has 37 catches for 570 yards and five TDs.

-- CMU ranks 17th in the nation in total defense and 30th in scoring defense (22.1 PPG).

-- Minnesota is in the postseason for the fourth straight season, but it has lost in all five of its bowl games going back to 2008. The Gophers were on the wrong end of a 33-17 decision against Missouri as 4.5-point underdogs at last year’s Citrus Bowl.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for CMU even though the ‘over’ has cashed in back-to-back games. The Chippewas have seen their games average combined scores of 48.5 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Gophers after hitting in three consecutive games and six of their last seven. They have seen their games average combined scores of 48.7 PPG.

-- ESPN2 will have the telecast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

Matchup Skinny Edge

PITT vs. NAVY (Military Bowl)

Pitt 1-3 SU and vs. line last four bowls, though this is Pat Narduzzi’s first bowl as head coach. Panthers were 4-1 vs. spread away this season and 4-2 as dog. Navy has won and covered last two bowls and is 7-3 vs. line last ten bowls since 2004. Mids 12-5 last 17 vs. spread since mid 2014.

Navy, based on team trends.



CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. MINNESOTA (Quick Lane Bowl)

Gophers have lost their last seven bowls SU since 2005, and no covers four of those last five. Though Minn is 10-2 vs. line with Tracy Claeys as coach (counting his interim stint in 2013). Gophers 3-7 vs. line last 10 vs. non-Big Ten. CMU 4-1-1 vs. line in bowls since 2006 under a variety of coaches and is 21-10 vs. spread its last 31 on board. Chips also 10-3 last 13 as dog.

CMU, based on team and bowl trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, December 28

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 4) at NAVY (10 - 2) - 12/28/2015, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 151-114 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 151-114 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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C MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. MINNESOTA (5 - 7) - 12/28/2015, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Mon - Dec, 28

Pittsburgh at Navy, 2:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 9-22 ATS in road games after a 2 game home stand
Navy: 46-28 ATS in games played on turf

Central Michigan at Minnesota, 5:00 ET
C Michigan: 8-1 ATS in road games after playing 2 straight conference games
Minnesota: 1-6 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less

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Military Bowl: Monday, December 28

Pittsburgh Panthers: Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s first career bowl appearance will come while leading a Panthers program that is just 2-6 ATS over its last eight matchups against non-conference opponents.

Navy Midshipmen: Navy is 7-3 ATS over its last 10 bowl games, but the real key here is the fact that ultra-prolific quarterback Keenan Reynolds (115 career touchdowns) will be under center for the final time in Navy’s colors.



Quick Lane Bowl: Monday, December 28

Central Michigan Chippewas: The Chippewas are 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games overall, 5-0 ATS over their last five non-conference games and 4-1-1 ATS over their last six bowl games.

Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers are just 1-4 ATS over their last five bowl games and enter postseason play having dropped five of their final six contests by an average of 11.0 points per outing.

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12-28-15

Pittsburgh vs. Navy

NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUM - ANNAPOLIS, MD
MONDAY, Dec. 28, 2015; 2:30 p.m. EST
Line: NAVY BY 3
OVER/UNDER: 53


PITTSBURGH is 9-22 ATS (-15.2
Units) in road games after a
2-game home stand since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH
21.8, OPPONENT 28.3

PITTSBURGH is 8-21 ATS
(-15.1 Units) versus mistake-free
teams - 42 or less penalty yards
per game - since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH
26.2, OPPONENT 27.6

LEAN: Pittsburgh +3 & Over 53


12-28-15

Central Michigan vs. Minnesota

FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MI
MONDAY, Dec. 28, 2015; 5:00 p.m. EST
Line: MINNESOTA BY 5
OVER/UNDER: 48

MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7
Units) in the second half of the
year over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA
26.4, OPPONENT 26.1

CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS
(+7.8 Units) in road games after
playing a conference game over
the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CENTRAL
MICHIGAN 27.8, OPPONENT 25.5

LEAN: Minnesota -5 & Over 48

----------------------

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

Pittsburgh @ Navy

Game 237-238
December 28, 2015 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
92.593
Navy
93.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Navy
by 3 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+3 1/2); Under



Central Michigan @ Minnesota

Game 239-240
December 28, 2015 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
79.085
Minnesota
82.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+6); Under

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[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Monday, December 28

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Monday's college football bowl betting preview
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Minnesota will be making its fourth straight bowl-game appearance in the Quick Lane Bowl.


Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Navy Midshipmen (-3, 53)

Game to be played at Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Navy tries for the first 11-win season in program history when it meets Pittsburgh on Dec. 28 in the Military Bowl on the Midshipmen's home field in Annapolis, Md., in what could be coach Ken Niumatalolo's final game with Navy. Niumatalolo, who took over as Midshipmen coach prior to the the 2007 Poinsettia Bowl, is 67-37-0 - the winningest coach in Academy annals - but appears to be a strong candidate to take over at BYU. "It's been my life," Niumatalolo, a Mormon who went on a two-year mission after his freshman year at Hawaii, told reporters about his time at Navy. "My kids have grown up here. I've given everything for this program."

Keenan Reynolds, who finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting, plays his final collegiate game after becoming the first Midshipmen quarterback to defeat Army four times. Reynolds rushed for two touchdowns in No. 22 Navy's 21-17 victory over the Black Knights on Dec. 12 to set the Division I record with 85 career TDs, passing Georgia Southern's Adrian Peterson and Towson's Terrance West. Reynolds has rushed for 4,415 yards, trailing only West Virginia's Pat White (4,480) and Michigan's Denard Robinson (4,495) on the all-time FBS list for quarterbacks.

While it appears the Midshipmen may soon need a new coach, Pittsburgh's Pat Narduzzi on Dec. 10 received a two-year contract extension through 2021 after guiding the Panthers to eight wins in his first season. Narduzzi's rushing defense is 20th nationally at 126.1 yards per game, but he must figure out a way to stop the country's No. 3 ground attack which averages 319.2 yards. Pittsburgh held Navy to 220 rushing yards in a 24-21 loss in Annapolis on a last-second goal in 2013.

TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Navy opened as 5-point favorites, but have been bet down two-points to the current number of -3. The total opened at 53 and hasn't moved off that number.

INJURY REPORT:

Pittsburgh - DL Z. Poker (questionable Monday, foot), DL M. Scarpinato (questionable Monday, upper body).

Navy - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It's going to be overcast with a 20 percent chance of rain and a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing across the field out of the northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid 40's.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (8-4, 6-6 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U): The Panthers boast a trio of offensive standouts in quarterback Nathan Peterman (61.4 percent completion rate, 19 touchdowns, five interceptions), redshirt freshman running back Qadree Ollison (1,048 rushing yards, 10 TDs) and wide receiver Tyler Boyd (85 catches, six TDs). Freshman defensive back Jordan Whitehead finished third in the ACC with 67 solo tackles. Pittsburgh, which finished second to North Carolina in the ACC's Coastal Division, plays in its eighth straight bowl after losing to Houston 35-34 in last season's Armed Forces Bowl to drop to 13-18 in bowl games.

ABOUT NAVY (10-2, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Reynolds ran for 1,229 yards and 21 touchdowns this season - the second-most rushing scores in the nation to Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry of Alabama (23) - while fullback Chris Swain added 909 yards and 10 scores. Reynolds tossed seven touchdown passes - five to wide receiver Jamir Tillman - in 98 attempts this season. The Midshipmen (9-10-1 in bowl games) play in their fourth straight bowl and try for their third consecutive victory after a 17-16 win over San Diego State in the 2014 Poinsettia Bowl and a 24-6 verdict over Middle Tennessee in the 2013 Armed Forces Bowl.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
* Navy is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
* Over is 4-1 in Pittsburgh's last 5 non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Navy's last 6 neutral site games.



Quick Lane Bowl

Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-5, 48.5)

Game to be played at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

Central Michigan nearly pulled off an impossible comeback the last time it appeared in the postseason; Minnesota merely achieved the improbable by qualifying for a bowl game despite a losing record. The Chippewas enter the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit on Dec. 28 after falling just short of successfully overcoming a 35-point fourth-quarter deficit in last year’s Bahamas Bowl. The Golden Gophers are one of three five-win programs that earned a bowl bid this season based on its NCAA Academic Progress Report after not enough teams reached bowl eligibility.

Minnesota went 2-0 against the Mid-American Conference this year and will be making its fourth straight bowl-game appearance, but will be doing so under coach Tracy Claeys, who took over for Jerry Kill after he resigned his position on Oct. 28 due to health reasons. The Gophers went 1-4 under Claeys, although all four setbacks came against bowl-bound Big Ten teams with at least nine regular-season wins. In all, six of Minnesota’s seven losses came against opponents that either already have posted 10 victories or can reach that mark with a win in their bowl game.

Central Michigan trailed Western Kentucky 49-14 with less than 12 minutes left in the 2014 Bahamas Bowl before Cooper Rush connected on the first of five fourth-quarter touchdown passes – he finished with seven, the most by a quarterback in any bowl game. The 34-point rally was highlighted by a play that involved three laterals as time expired. The Chippewas’ bid to complete the comeback was thwarted, however, when the ensuing game-winning two-point conversion was batted away.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE HISTORY: Minnesota opened as 6-point favorites, were bet down to -5.5, back up to -6 and then down to the current number of -5. The total has been bet down a point from 49.5 to 48.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Central Michigan - J. Ostman (questionable Monday, ankle), DB S. Armstead (questionable Monday, undisclosed).

Minnesota - DL S. Ekpe (probable MOnday, undisclosed), DB J. Myrick (probable Monday, ribs), QB M. Leidner (probable Monday, foot), DT S. Richardson (probable Monday, calf), WR I. Gentry (questionable Monday, hamstring), WR J. Jones (questionable Monday, undisclosed), OL B. Lauer (questionable Monday, concussion), RB R. Smith (questionable Monday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (7-5, 9-3 ATS, 5-7 O/U): First-year coach John Bonamego kept Rush as the focal point of the offense and was rewarded as his junior quarterback completed 67.2 percent of his passes and set a single-season school record with 3,703 passing yards during the regular season – good for 10th in FBS in that category. Rush passed for multiple touchdowns in nine of his team’s 12 games and threw for four scores in two of those contests. Eight Chippewas have at least one catch that covered 25 yards and five players have at least 33 receptions, led by Jesse Kroll (59 catches for 856 yards) and Anthony Rice (56 for 584).

ABOUT MINNESOTA (5-7, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Shannon Brooks became the first Gopher since Laurence Maroney in 2005 to have four touchdown runs longer than 35 yards in one year and finished the regular season with 644 rushing yards – the sixth-highest total for a Minnesota freshman. The passing attack is led by Mitch Leidner, who set a program record for a junior with 218 completions and tied another one by passing for at least 250 yards in four straight games, and receiver KJ Maye, who tallied 65 catches for 706 yards. The Gophers’ secondary has a pair of likely future NFL cornerbacks in seniors Eric Murray and Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who held up the back end of the country’s 15th-ranked pass defense.

TRENDS:

* Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Central Michigan's last 9 vs. Big Ten.
* Over is 6-1 in Minnesota's last 7 games overall.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


PITT at NAVY 02:30 PM

PITT +2.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 52.5 DOUBLE PLAY


CMU at MINN 05:00 PM

CMU +4.0 BLOW OUT

O 48.5 BLOW OUT

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 28, 2015


**California vs. Air Force**

-- The California Golden Bears (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) will meet the Air Force Falcons (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Tex., and each would love to finish their season on a high note after limping to the finish line after hot stretches.

-- Cal kicked off its regular season with five consecutive wins, serving notice that they are back to relevance after a few down seasons. They opened with a pair of conference wins over the Washington schools before road setbacks at Utah and UCLA in the middle of October. That was the start of a four-game losing streak which also included a home loss to USC, and a road setback to Oregon. In the grand scheme of things, losses to four bowl teams is not a huge embarrassment, and they were able to rout Oregon State Nov. 14 to stem the tide of losing and become bowl eligible. Another loss at Stanford in 'The Big Game' set them to 6-5, but they rallied again in a 48-46 win over Arizona State in the season finale to finish on a high note. However, Cal does enter this game just 1-5 ATS in their past six overall, and they have failed to cover in their past three outings away from Berkeley.

-- Air Force started out 3-3 SU/ATS this season, beating the teams they should and losing to teams perceived to be better. No real surprises. Then, beginning Oct. 24 they were on a five-game win and cover tear to set them up for a potential run to the Mountain West Championship Game. However, a shocking straight-up loss as an 11-point favorite at New Mexico Nov. 28, and a 27-24 setback at San Diego State humbled them, and that's why they're in Fort Worth rather than playing for bigger prizes. Still, USAFA finished the season 6-1 ATS in their final seven, and they have covered three of their past four away from Colorado Springs.

-- The Falcons continue to find success in the triple-option, and QB Karson Roberts did enough with his arm to keep defenses somewhat honest, too. He threw for 1,446 yards with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions while also running for 674 yards (4.4 yards per attempt) and a team-high tying nine scores. RB D.J. Johnson (ankle) suffered an ankle injury in November, and he appears unlikely to suit up. He posted 425 yards with six touchdowns. But RB Jacobi Owens starred for the Falcs, posting 1,013 yards on the ground with six touchdowns to more than fill the void. RB Timothy McVey has also stepped up, tying Roberts with nine rushing touchdowns while running for 9.1 yards per attempt. Even RBs Shayne Davern and Benton Washington found the end zone four times, so the Falcons have so many interchangeable parts.

-- While Cal also has a strong offense, it is a contrast in styles. It all starts and stops with QB Jared Goff and the passing game. Goff threw for 4,247 yards with 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while completing 64.2 percent of his attempts. Goff will not be confused with Roberts, or any other dual-threat QB, as he amassed eight yards rushing on the season with no scores. It's strictly all pass, all the time. His biggest weapons are WR Kenny Lawler, who led the team with 10 touchdowns on 583 yards receiving, and WR Bryce Troggs with a team-best 813 receiving yards, 19.8 yards per catch and six scores. WRs Maurice Harris and Darius Powe each chipped in with six touchdowns, too, so needless to say Cal is deep and can go to four- or five-receiver sets without missing much.

-- Cal is looking to turn things around after setbacks in each of their past two bowl games, both in San Diego. They lost to Texas in their last appearance in 2011 in the Holiday Bowl, 21-10, and they were dumped in the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl by Utah, 37-27. Their last appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl was a 42-36, and it came against Air Force back on Dec. 31, 2007. NFLers Justin Forsett and DeSean Jackson starred for the Bears that day. Who will step up this year?

-- Air Force has a rich football history, and they have been a frequent bowler, too. Troy Calhoun has led the Falcons to a bowl game in eight of his first nine seasons in the Springs, making like legendary coach Fisher DeBerry. While the Falcons haven't finished in the AP Top 25 since 1998, they have been competitive and a tough assignment in bowl games. They have won three of their past five bowl appearances, including a win over Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl last season. However, they are just 1-3 in their past four Armed Forces Bowls, with their only win coming in 2009 against Houston.

-- Cal enters as a touchdown favorite, or 6 1/2 points, depending on your shop. Cal is 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record, and they're 0-4 ATS in their past four neutral-site games and 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games. The Bears are also just 4-14 ATS in their past 18 games on grass.

-- Air Force steams in 6-1 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five bowl games. They're also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning record, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 on a grass surface.

-- The 'under' is 7-2 in Cal's past nine, but the 'over' is 7-2 in their past nine neutral-site battles and 6-2 in their past eight bowl games. For USAFA, the 'under' is 12-5 in their past 17 non-conference tilts, but 4-0 in their past four overall and 4-0 in their past four against teams with a winning overall record.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

**North Carolina vs. Baylor**

-- North Carolina (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) heads to the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando, Fla. looking to secure its first 12-win season in school history. They're just happy the game isn't being played in Charlotte, as they're 0-2 SU/ATS at Bank of America Stadium this season, and 11-0 SU/8-3 ATS elsewhere.

-- Baylor (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) started the season as one of the top teams in the nation with designs on a national title. However, injuries really hurt the Bears down the stretch, especially at key positions, and now they simply will have to settle for a 10-win season if they can be successful in their bowl game.

-- The Bears lost QB Seth Russell (neck) to a season-ending neck injury in late October. QB Jarrett Stidham (ankle) stepped in and had a win in his initial start, but he too was lost to an ankle injury which leaves him doubtful for the bowl game. That means QB Chris Johnson (concussion), who was also knocked out down the stretch, will need to lead this team. He is probable to play Tuesday. If he does play, he will be without WR Corey Coleman, who is out with a sports hernia. The good news for the Bears is that top rushing threat RB Shock Linwood (ankle) is expected to be ready.

-- Johnson and Lynx Hawthorne are the signal callers left standing, and neither was particularly impressive when given the chance. Johnson completed just 15 of his 38 pass attempts for 220 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while Hawthorne tosses 10 times on 22 attempts for just 64 yards, no scores and two picks. The lack of a polished passing game might mean more leaning on Linwood, who rambled for 1,329 yards and 10 scores, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. RB Johnny Jefferson also stepped up with 701 rushing yards and five scores, while change-of-pace Devin Chafin punched eight in for score. The team misses Russell, who had six rushing touchdowns in addition to his heroics in the pass game, but they have plenty of other ball carriers.

-- For the Tar Heels, QB Marquise Williams really established himself as a leader this season, posting 2,825 yards passing with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions while also running for 867 yards and 11 scores. If he falters, backup QB MitchTrubisky is more than capable. WR Mack Hollins led the team with 711 receiving yards and eight scores, and WR Ryan Switzer managed 664 yards with 51 grabs and six touchdowns. WR Quinshad Davis is also a threat, posting 11.8 yards per catch with four scores. They can go four-deep with WR Bug Howard, too, as he posted 17.2 yards per grab with 446 yards and three scores.

-- The Tar Heels posted 26 or more points in each of their past 12 games, and they averaged 47.4 points per game in their final five outings. They needed the points, as their defense reverted back to their 2014 form, allowing an average of 31.6 points per game during the five-game span. That's not good news against a Baylor offense which scores like a video game.

-- UNC hasn't had great success in bowl games lately, going just 2-5 in their past seven postseason showings dating back to 2001. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 6-2 all-time in bowl games in the state of Florida, although their last postseason appearance in the Sunshine State was back in the 1998 Gator Bowl.

-- Baylor hasn't had nearly as long of a bowl history as some, but they've made up for lost time in recent seasons. Tuesday will mark their sixth consecutive bowl, by far the longest in school history. They have lost each of their past two outings, suffering a 52-42 setback to UCF in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl, and a 42-41 heartbreaker against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl last season. On a positive note, Baylor has scored 41 or more points in four straight bowl appearances, but they have also allowed 44.0 points on defense. In other words, if you like points you'll want to want the Russell Athletic Bowl.

-- UNC is 6-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record, but 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site games. Baylor is 16-7 ATS in their past 23 against teams with a winning record, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 non-conference tilts. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their past six overall.

-- The 'over' is 4-0 in UNC's past four against teams with a winning overall record, and 4-1 in their past five overall. The 'under' is 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts, however. For Baylor, the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in their past five neutral-site games, and 21-8 in their past 29 non-conference tilts. The 'over' is 27-10-1 in their past 38 against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Nevada vs. Colorado State**

-- Nevada (6-6 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) heads to the Arizona Bowl looking to put the brakes on a two-game losing skid and topple a red-hot Colorado State (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) team also from the Mountain West Conference.

-- The Wolf Pack started the season 3-4 SU/ATS through the first season games and it appeared to be a lost season. However, a three-game winning streak from Oct. 24-Nov. 14 kickoff off a 4-0-1 ATS run in the final five games to make Nevada a friend of the bettor.

The Rams got off to an equally tough start, opening 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS. But they were close, as two of those setbacks were against Minnesota and rival Colorado, games which were unable to be decided in regulation. After a 41-10 setback to Boise State Oct. 10, the Rams picked up a win against fellow bowl team Air Force before finishing the regular season 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in the final six.

-- QB Nick Stevens had a decent year for CSU, completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,368 yards, 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He isn't a threat to run, but he did run for two scores. The Rams lead the running to RB Dalyn Dawkins, who led the team with 805 yards and two scores on 5.2 yards per tote. RB Jasen Oden is also shifty, posting 695 yards with five scores. RB Izzy Matthews is also capable, posting 5.9 yards per carry while hitting paydirt five times. In the receiving game it's all about WR Rashard Higgins, who was by far the most impressive with 932 yards and eight scores. WR Joe Hansley had six scores, while TE Kivon Cartwright managed 15.5 yards per grab and two scores.

-- Wolf Pack QB Tyler Stewart had big shoes to fill for the departed Cody Fajardo, but he did a more than adequate job. He threw for 2,064 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also running for 293 yards and four scores. The Pack had a pair of 1,000-yard runners in James Butler (184-1,156-8) and Don Jackson (220-1,026-8). WRs Hassan Henderson (50-709-4) and Jerico Richardson (64-707-5) have dependable hands, and TE Jarred Gipson is a big red zone threat with five scores this season.

-- Nevada is 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five overall. However, they're 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven bowl games and 1-4-1 ATS in their past six neutral-site battles. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in their past six meetings in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in five straight battles between these two Mountain West clubs.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern streaming on CampusInsiders.com.

**Louisiana State vs. Texas Tech**

-- Louisiana State (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) heads to the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl against Texas Tech (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) in a potentially high-scoring game. The Tigers had some uncertainty down the stretch on whether head coach Les Miles would continue on, but he was not fired and that drama appears to be a thing of the past and the team can concentrate 100 percent on the on-field issues again.

-- LSU had a down year by their standards. They opened 7-0 SU (4-3 ATS), but they had a three-game losing streak from Nov. 7-21 with losses at Alabama, home to Arkansas and at Mississippi. All three of those games are bowling, and they wrapped up with a 19-7 win over Texas A&M. The Tigers were also 1-3 ATS in their final four games, too, and they were 1-4 ATS in their five forays away from Baton Rouge this season.

-- The season was one of peaks and valleys for the Red Raiders. They opened 3-0, lost two straight to Texas Christian and Baylor at home, won two in a row, lost three in a row and then won their final two. All five of their setbacks came against bowl teams, so there were no embarrassing or shocking setbacks, and they had a nice win at Arkansas earlier in the season, as well as a 48-45 shootout win at Texas to exorcise some historic demons.

-- The Red Raiders are led by QB Patrick Mahomes II, son of former MLB pitcher Pat Mahomes. The QB threw for 4,283 yards, 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while completing 65.0 percent of his passes. He also rushed for 484 yards and 10 touchdowns to serve as a true dual-threat option. WR Jakeem Grant is his favorite target, as he finished the regular season with 1,143 yards with seven touchdowns. WR Devin Lauderdale was good for 43 grabs, 639 yards and four touchdowns, but he was suspended indefinitely and will not play in the Texas Bowl. While that's a big missing target, WR Reginald Davis had seven scores and RB Justin Stockton hauled in six balls for score and they will look to fill the void.

-- LSU's offense is RB Leonard Fournette, who was putting up mind-boggling numbers early in the season before settling down. He still finished with 1,741 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 209 receiving yards. RBs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams found the end zone three times. QB Brandon Harris continues his on-the-job training. He showed glimpses of brilliance, but is a work in progress. He completed 53.1 percent of his pass attempts for just 1,904 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. He ran 64 times for 185 yards and three scores, but will need to play much better if the Tigers hope to keep pace with Texas Tech's high-octane offense. WRs Malachi Dupre (39-602-6) and Travin Dural (28-533-3) are big-play options just looking for more opportunity.

-- LSU will be making a bowl appearance for the 16th consecutive season. They're just 2-4 in their past six bowl games, including a 31-28 setback to Notre Dame in the Music City bowl last season. The good news is that LSU has scored at least 20 points in 14 of their past 16 bowl games, so the offense tends to show up when bowling.

-- Texas Tech has enjoyed great success in the postseason in recent seasons. Since a win in the 2002 Tangerine Bowl, the Red Raiders are 9-2 in their past 11 bowl games, and they enter on a four-game bowl win streak. Texas Tech did not go bowling in 2014.

-- The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl games, but 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against Big 12 opponents.

-- Texas Tech has been hot winning bowl games, but they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight bowl outings and 2-6 ATS in their past eight neutral-site games, too. However, they are 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 overall and 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a straight-up win.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Top Bowl Action
December 28, 2015


AIR FORCE FALCONS (8-5) vs. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (7-5)

Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
Kickoff: Tuesday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: California -7, Total: 68

Two offenses with contrasting styles will clash in Fort Worth on Tuesday with run-oriented Air Force and pass-happy California meeting in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The Falcons carry the football an average of 59 times per game for 322 YPG (3rd in FBS), while the Bears throw the pigskin 43 times per contest for 369 YPG (5th in nation). Although Air Force has a better defense statistically, the team has surrendered 33.0 PPG and 441 total YPG over the past four contests. California's defense is even more suspect, having allowed 40 points on four separate occasions and failing to force a turnover in three straight games. The Falcons are playing in their eighth bowl game in the past nine years, and are 4-2 in the past six bowls, but the Bears haven’t won a postseason game since 2008.

Both schools have highly-rated betting trends with Air Force going 6-0 ATS this season after a game where it committed less than two turnovers, and Cal falling in the category of teams going 53-23 ATS (70%) in the past 10 years after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in three straight games, returning 8+ offensive starters against an opponent returning five or less defensive starters.

On the injury front, the Falcons have no new injuries since losing RBs D.J. Johnson (hamstring) and Shayne Davern (knee) for the season in late November. But the Bears will likely be without four players in RB Lonny Powell (personal) and LBs Devante Downs (foot), Michael Barton (knee) and Hamilton Anoa'i (undisclosed), while two others are questionable -- WR Jack Austin (foot) and DB Griffin Piatt (collarbone).

The Air Force offense has been strong this season with 33.6 PPG on 453 total YPG (6.4 yards per play), and has a whopping 7.4 yards per play in the past three contests. The team chooses to run the football 83% of the time, which leads to a hefty 32:26 time of possession and 322 rushing YPG on 5.5 YPC. The air attack produces only 131 YPG, but does so on an eye-popping 11.0 YPA. Senior QB Karson Roberts has 10.8 YPA despite completing only 52% of his throws for 1,446 yards, 9 TD and 10 INT. He is also the team's second-leading rusher with 674 yards on 4.4 YPC with nine touchdowns.

The Falcons top ball carrier is junior RB Jacobi Owens (1,009 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 6 TD) who has rushed for at least 133 yards in four of the past seven games, including a season-high 156 in the MWC title game loss at San Diego State. Four other Air Force players have rushed for at least four touchdowns this year, as the team has amassed 42 scores on the ground.

Defensively, the Falcons have held opponents to 23.2 PPG on 337 total YPG, but those numbers are way up in the past three games (34.7 PPG, 442 total YPG). They are on the field for only 27:23, which is a big reason why they allow only 147 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 190 passing YPG on 7.1 YPA. Air Force doesn't have a lot of playmakers on the unit, having forced just three turnovers in the past five games combined, and the Bears have committed just three giveaways in the past four contests.

California's offense has racked up 36.5 PPG on 524 total YPG this season and the numbers are through the roof in the past three contests with 41.3 PPG on 645 total YPG. While the team throws the football 56% of the time, resulting in 368 YPG on 8.6 YPA, it also has the ability to run the pigskin with 156 YPG on 4.6 YPC.

Junior QB Jared Goff has completed 64% of his passes for 4,252 yards (8.6 YPA), 37 TD and 13 INT this year, which includes a season-high 542 yards in the last game versus Arizona State. In the past four contests, Goff has thrown 15 TD and only two picks.

While WR Bryce Treggs (813 rec yds, 6 TD) is the only Bears player with 700 receiving yards on the roster, five others have gained at least 460 yards through the air. This includes WR Kenny Lawler (47 rec, 583 yds), who leads the club with 10 touchdown grabs. But Treggs has been the main man lately with 432 receiving yards and 3 TD over his past four games. On the ground, junior RB Khalfani Muhammad (539 rush yds, 6.9 YPC, 1 TD) is the team's rushing leader, but sophomore RB Vic Enwere (486 rush yds, 5.0 YPC) has found the end zone seven times.

The Cal defense allows a beefy 30.2 PPG on 455 total YPG this season, but those numbers have spiked to 36.2 PPG on 508 total YPG in six games away from home where the club is 2-4 (SU and ATS). Neither the front seven, which allows 203 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC, nor the secondary (252 passing YPG allowed, 7.8 YPA) has played very well this year. Although the Bears have forced only three turnovers in the second half of the season (after 21 takeaways in the first half), the Falcons have six games with multiple giveaways this year, including two of the past three.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29


Matchup Skinny Edge


AIR FORCE vs. CAL (Armed Forces Bowl)
Cal 1-5 vs. line last six this season and has dropped its last pointspread decision of the year a remarkable seven seasons in a row! Bears just 2-4 vs. spread away from Berkeley in 2015 and have not covered a bowl since the 2007 team in this same bowl vs. Air Force. Falcs 13-5-1 last 19 vs. spread and are 8-3 their last 11 as dog. Troy Calhoun 4-1 vs. line last five in bowls.

Air Force, based on team trends.



BAYLOR vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Russell Athletic Bowl)
Art Briles no wins or covers last two years in bowls, and Bears just 6-10 vs. number their last 16 on the board. Heels 8-5 vs. line this season though only 2-3 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill. Larry Fedora no covers last four bowls with USM and UNC.

Slight to North Carolina, based on recent trends.



NEVADA vs. COLORADO STATE (Arizona Bowl)
Pack closed season on 4-0-1 spread run and was 4-1-1 vs. line away from Reno, now 9-3-1 vs. spread away since last season. Pack 2-2 vs. line last four bowls. Rams 2-5-1 vs. spread last 8 away from Fort Collins and have failed to cover in bowls the past two seasons.

Nevada, based on team trends.



TEXAS TECH vs. LSU (Texas Bowl)
TT 10-5 last 15 vs. spread since late 2014 and Kingsbury 9-5 vs. number last 14 as dog, and Tech has won SU in its last four bowls since 2009. Les Miles no covers last four or five of last six bowls, and also no covers last five away from Baton Rouge. Tigers 3-10 vs. spread last 13 as chalk away form home.

Texas Tech, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, December 29

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AIR FORCE (8 - 5) vs. CALIFORNIA (7 - 5) - 12/29/2015, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BAYLOR (9 - 3) vs. N CAROLINA (11 - 2) - 12/29/2015, 5:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEVADA (6 - 6) vs. COLORADO ST (7 - 5) - 12/29/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS TECH (7 - 5) vs. LSU (8 - 3) - 12/29/2015, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

-----------------------

Tues - Dec, 29

Air Force at California, 2:00 ET
Air Force: 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
California: 1-9 ATS after 2 games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Baylor at North Carolina, 5:30 ET
Baylor: 2-14 ATS after 3 games where they committed 3 or more turnovers
N Carolina: 39-21 ATS after 2 games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Nevada at Colorado State, 7:30 ET
Nevada: 5-1 ATS after playing a conference game
Colorado St: 1-4 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less

Texas Tech at LSU, 9:00 ET
Texas Tech: 9-2 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games
LSU: 0-8 ATS in road games after playing a game at home

------------------------

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Tuesday, December 29

California Golden Bears: California went just 1-5 ATS over its final six contests while giving up an average of 203.5 rushing yards per game during the 2015 campaign. That doesn’t bode well for a matchup with Air Force, who averaged 58.7 rushing attempts and 322.1 rushing yards per game this year.

Air Force Falcons: The Falcons are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games overall and 8-2 ATS over their last 10 matchups against teams with a winning record. In addition, Air Force is 4-1 ATS over its last five bowl games.

Russell Athletic Bowl: Tuesday, December 29

North Carolina Tar Heels: Approximately 70 percent of the early action is on head coach Larry Fedora and the Tar Heels, but you have to wonder how motivated North Carolina is to play in a December 29 bowl game after winning 11 straight contests and having an outside shot at qualifying for college football’s four-team playoff before falling 45-37 to Clemson in the ACC title game.

Baylor Bears: The Bears are just 1-5 ATS over their last six games overall and, just like in North Carolina’s case, you have to question the program’s motivation to play in this game after their 8-0 start resulted in a 9-3 finish.

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: Tuesday, December 29

Nevada Wolf Pack: The Pack’s six victories came against teams with a combined record of 25-47, with only one of those programs (New Mexico) concluding the regular season with a winning record.

Colorado State Rams: The Rams enter postseason play having won four straight games by an average of 10.7 points per contest.

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl: Tuesday, December 29

LSU Tigers: Considering all the nonsense that took place in Louisiana at the end of the regular season surrounding the program’s head coach position, do you really want to bet against Les Miles in this spot? After all, the last thing Miles wants to do here is give the boosters a reason to regret not firing him. As of publication, approximately 72 percent of all spread bets placed for the Advocare V100 bowl sided with LSU.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Red Raiders are 10-4-1 ATS over their last 14 games overall while head coach Kliff Kingsbury is a perfect 1-0 both SU and ATS in postseason play.

------------------------

12-29-15

Air Force vs. California

AMON G. CARTER STADIUM - FORT WORTH, TX
TUESDAY, Dec. 29, 2015; 2:00 p.m. EST
Line: CALIFORNIA BY 7
OVER/UNDER: 67.5

AIR FORCE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0
Units) after a game where they
committed 1 or 0 turnovers
this season.
The average score was AIR
FORCE 34.7, OPPONENT 19.8

Play On - Any team (CAL) - after
gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in
3 straight games, returning 8+ offensive
starters against opponent
returning 5 or less defensive starters.

The situation’s record is
53-23 over the last 10 seasons
(69.7%, +27.7 units)

LEAN: Air Force +7 & Over 67.5

12-29-15

Baylor vs. North Carolina

Florida Citrus Bowl - Orlando, FL
TUESDAY, Dec. 29, 2015; 5:30 p.m. EST
Line: BAYLOR BY 3
OVER/UNDER: 68

BAYLOR is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units)
after 3 consecutive games where
they committed 3 or more turnovers
since 1992.
The average score was
BAYLOR 13.2, OPPONENT 40.8

BAYLOR is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units)
under coach Art Briles after out rushing
opponent by 150 or more
yards last game.
The average score was
BAYLOR 46.8, OPPONENT 28.0

LEAN: North Carolina +3 & Over 68


12-29-15

Nevada vs. Colorado St.

ARIZONA STADIUM - TUCSON, AZ
TUESDAY, Dec. 29, 2015; 7:00 p.m. EST
Line: COLORADO STATE BY 3
OVER/UNDER: 56

COLORADO STATE is 50-27 ATS
(+20.3 Units) after covering
the spread in 2 out of their last
3 games since 1992.
The average score was COLORADO
STATE 29.5, OPPONENT 26.4

COLORADO STATE is 11-1 ATS
versus poor rushing defenses -
allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/
carry over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO
STATE 45.9, OPPONENT 25.1

LEAN: Colorado St. -3 & Under 56

12-29-15

Texas Tech vs. LSU

NRG STADIUM - HOUSTON, TX
TUESDAY, Dec. 29, 2015; 9:00 p.m. EST
Line: LSU BY 7
OVER/UNDER: 73.5

LSU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) away
from home after playing a game
at home over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LSU 19.7,
OPPONENT 30.3

LSU is 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units)
under coach Les Miles versus good
rushing teams - averaging >=4.75
rushing yards/carry.
The average score was LSU 25.3,
OPPONENT 23.9

LEAN: LSU -7 & Over 73.5

------------------------

Air Force @ California

Game 241-242
December 29, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
89.683
California
94.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 5
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
California
by 7
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Air Force
(+7); Over

Baylor @ North Carolina

Game 243-244
December 29, 2015 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baylor
101.858
North Carolina
103.380
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 1 1/2
75
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baylor
by 3
69 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina
(+3); Over

Nevada @ Colorado State

Game 245-246
December 29, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nevada
79.284
Colorado State
84.848
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 3
56
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado State
(-3); Under

Texas Tech @ LSU

Game 247-248
December 29, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
93.579
LSU
103.071
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 9 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 7
74
Dunkel Pick:
LSU
(-7); Under

-------------------------

Tuesday, December 29

2:00 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. AIR FORCE
California is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
California is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Air Force's last 8 games
Air Force is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

5:30 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. BAYLOR
North Carolina is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baylor's last 6 games
Baylor is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games

7:30 PM
NEVADA vs. COLORADO STATE
Nevada is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado State
Nevada is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Colorado State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado State's last 6 games
Colorado State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

9:00 PM
LSU vs. TEXAS TECH
LSU is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games

-------------------------

NCAAF

Tuesday, December 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Tuesday's college football bowl betting preview
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The LSU Tigers head into the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl versus Texas Tech with an 0-4 record against the spread in their last four bowl games.


Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Game played at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

Cal Golden Bears vs. Air Force Falcons (+7, 67)

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two teams with very different offensive styles meet Dec. 29 as Air Force takes on California in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas. Air Force’s ground game ranks third nationally with 321.8 rushing yards per game, while Cal boasts an explosive aerial attack led by junior quarterback Jared Goff, who broke his own single-season school records for passing yards and touchdowns. The teams are meeting for the first time since the 2007 Armed Forces Bowl, when the Golden Bears overcame a 21-point deficit and escaped with a 42-36 victory.

2. Cal won two of its final three games to secure its first postseason appearance since 2011, while Air Force won five straight to clinch the Mountain West Mountain Division title but fell 27-24 to San Diego State in the conference championship game. The Falcons’ triple-option offense has received a boost from tailback Jacobi Owens, who started the final seven games and rushed for a season-best 156 yards against San Diego State. The Golden Bears also will need to keep a close eye on senior quarterback Karson Roberts, who has rushed for nine touchdowns and thrown for nine others.

3. All five of Air Force’s losses came away from home this season, but it should have solid backing in Fort Worth, which is less than a 12-hour drive from Colorado Springs. Safety Weston Steelhammer recorded a team-high 80 tackles and five interceptions as well as 10.5 tackles for loss and seven pass breakups to lead the Falcons, who ranked third in the Mountain West in scoring defense at 23.2 points per game. Steelhammer will need another strong effort against the Golden Bears, who closed the regular season with a 48-46 home win over Arizona State.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Cal as a 7-point fave. The total is up to 67 from the opening 65.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing toward the northwest endzone at around six mph.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last four games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Golden Bears last eight Bowl games.



Russell Athletic Bowl

Game played at Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida

(11) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (19) Baylor Bears (+2.5, 69.5)

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL STORYLINES

1. North Carolina goes after its school-record 12th victory of the season when it takes on injury-plagued Baylor at the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 29 in Orlando, Fla. The No. 10 Tar Heels lost their opener to South Carolina and won 11 consecutive games before dropping the ACC Championship game 45-37 against No. 1 Clemson. North Carolina has won 11 contests for the fourth time (also 1972, 1980 and 1997) and faces the No. 17 Bears, who lost three of the last four games.

2. Four different quarterbacks have been under center this season for Baylor and freshman Jarrett Stidham (broken ankle) is not expected to be ready, which will hand the start to Chris Johnson. The sophomore won’t be able to look in the direction of Biletnikoff Award winner Corey Coleman (74 receptions, 1,363 yards and a nation-leading 20 touchdowns), who has been ruled out due to a sports hernia. Coach Art Briles also announced that running back Shock Linwood (1,329 yards rushing, 10 TDs) would not play against North Carolina due to a broken foot.

3. There’s no doubt who will be at the helm for North Carolina as senior quarterback Marquise Williams attempts to end his final campaign with another strong performance. Williams is one of five ACC players in history to accumulate more than 10,000 yards of offense and threw 12 of his 21 touchdown passes this season in the last six games while suffering only two interceptions in that span. The 6-2, 225-pound Williams has also rushed for 867 yards and 11 scores in 2015, and has been responsible for a school-record 94 touchdowns in his career.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Baylor as a 2.5-point fave, but that has been adjusted to +3. The total is up one point from the opening 68.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing toward the north endzone at around six mph.

TRENDS:

* Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last five games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Bears last five neutral site games.



Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Game played at Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Colorado State Rams (-3, 55.5)

NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL STORYLINES

1. For the first time since the Big Eight’s Nebraska and Oklahoma met in the 1979 Orange Bowl, two opponents from the same conference will square off in a non-playoff bowl game when Nevada and Colorado State of the Mountain West meet Dec. 29 in the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl in Tucson. With only 77 bowl-eligible teams to fill 80 slots and several conferences unable to fill their affiliations, the selection process became a scramble and, when the dust settled, the West-Division Wolf Pack and Mountain-Division Rams wound up pitted against each other in the first-year bowl. The teams did not meet in the regular season due to the conference’s unbalanced-schedule rotation, but Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson quickly issued a statement following the bowl-pairings announcement Dec. 6, saying: “It is a travesty the Mountain West has been forced into this situation. Clearly, the system is broken. ... There is consensus change needed, and this year’s outcome must not be repeated.”

2. Nevada struggled offensively this season, ranking 87th in the FBS in scoring (26.1 points per game) and 83rd in total offense (377.7 yards), and will have an interim play-caller in Tucson with offensive coordinator Nick Rolovich leaving to accept the head-coaching position at Hawaii. Wide receivers coach Jim Hofher, a former head coach at Cornell and Buffalo, will handle the duties and also will switch from coaching the receivers to quarterbacks. And with the Wolf Pack playing in a post-Christmas bowl game, coach Brian Polian has started his search for the team’s next offensive coordinator to step in for Rolovich, who had served in that capacity the last four seasons.

3. Mike Bobo already has had the most successful initial coaching season in Colorado State history, and the Rams are building on that with the additional practices and the extra game itself. In particular, quarterback Nick Stevens has shown strides under Bobo, the offensive coordinator at Georgia the previous eight seasons, as he set the program’s sophomore record with 2,369 passing yards. Stevens also has thrown a Mountain West-leading 21 touchdown passes – the fifth-highest single-season total in Colroado State history.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, American Sports Network/Campus Insiders.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Rams as 3.5-point faves but that's moved to -3. The total opened at 56 and is down to 55.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-40s under clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at around six mph.

TRENDS:

* Wolf Pack are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Wolf Pack last five Bowl games.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Rams last five Bowl games.



Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

Game played at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

(21) LSU Tigers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7, 73.5)

ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. LSU coach Les Miles spent the last few weeks of the regular season unsure about his job security but comes into bowl season armed with the knowledge that he’ll be back to guide Leonard Fournette and company again next year. Miles will try to reward the school’s faith in him when he leads the Tigers against Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl in Houston on Dec. 29. The Red Raiders enter the postseason with some momentum after knocking off Kansas State and Texas in their final two games.

2. Texas Tech boasts the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation at an average of 46.6 points and the No. 2 passing attack (389.7 yards). LSU proved to be more vulnerable in the defensive secondary than usual and slipped to 47th against the pass, surrendering an average of 211 yards through the air. The Tigers were in the mix for a spot in the National Championship Playoff before surrendering 30 or more points in three straight losses, but finished the regular season with a 19-7 triumph over Texas A&M.

3. The Red Raiders will put their passing offense up against any opponent behind quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who enters bowl season third in the nation with 4,283 passing yards. The sophomore threw for 32 touchdowns and rushed for 10 more in a breakout campaign. The Texas Tech passing game is in direct contrast to LSU’s attack, in which quarterback Brandon Harris heads an offense that averages 173.1 yards – 110th in the nation.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Red Raiders as 7-point dogs but that is now +7.5. The total has is at the opening number of 73.5.

WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Red Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Bowl games.
* Over is 5-0 in Tigers last five non-conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Red Raiders last seven Bowl games.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CAL at AFA 02:00 PM

AFA +7.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 69.5 TRIPLE PLAY



UNC at BAY 05:30 PM

UNC -3.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 69.0 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NEV at CSU 07:30 PM

CSU -4.0 BLOW OUT

U 56.0 DOUBLE PLAY



LSU at TTU 09:00 PM

LSU -7.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 74.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Transfers leave Aggies thin at QB for bowl
December 29, 2015

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin goes into the Music City Bowl down to his third option at quarterback after Kyle Allen decided to transfer, and then Kyler Murray decided to leave the Aggies.

That leaves Jake Hubenak making his first start Wednesday night against Louisville, and Sumlin said the Aggies are just fine with that.

''Let's face it, you know the guy's been around a bit,'' Sumlin said. ''He's been at another university. He's been at a junior college, an older guy that's traveled around a little bit. So he's used to adversity, and I think he's handled it well so far.''

A torn ACL in high school led Hubenak to walk on at Oklahoma State where he redshirted, and he bolted for Blinn Junior College in Texas where Hubenak threw for 4,052 yards and 47 touchdowns with only nine interceptions in eight games to work his way to Texas A&M. Hubenak played in five games this season, throwing 27 passes.

Sumlin insisted the loss of his top two quarterbacks has been no distraction for the Aggies (8-4). Yes, the coach is making sure to fix any issues that led to them both leaving.

''At no time did we recruit guys that we want to leave the program,'' Sumlin said.

Louisville coach Bobby Petrino has a relative wealth with three options at quarterback, and he's going back to freshman Lamar Jackson who last started Oct. 30 against Wake Forest for the Cardinals (7-4). Jackson leads Louisville throwing for 1,613 yards. He's also their leading rusher with 734 yards, topping 100 yards in a school-record four games. He came off the bench and ran for 186 yards and two TDs in beating rival Kentucky.

''I've been looking forward to this day for a very long time,'' Jackson said of his first bowl game.

---

Here are some other things to know about this Music City Bowl, sponsored by Franklin American Mortgage:

DEFENSIVE AGGIES: Sophomore Myles Garrett leads the SEC with 11 1/2 sacks, 18 1/2 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles. He has plenty of help too with junior defensive end Daeshon Hall adding seven sacks and 12 1/2 tackles for loss. The duo is a big part of a defense that ranks fourth nationally allowing 161.3 yards passing and third averaging 8.6 tackles for loss per game.

CARDINAL WALL: Louisville are very good on defense too, ranking 13th nationally allowing 323.4 yards per game. Five Cardinals have nine or more tackles for loss led by junior linebacker Devonte Fields who tied for second nationally with 19 1/2 tackles for loss. Any pass that gets through is at risk too. Louisville ranks 14th nationally and led the ACC with 16 interceptions.

BIG LEG: Aggies senior punter Drew Kaser is within range of a few marks going into his final game. He is averaging 46.30 yards per punt in his career, putting him .01 off the NCAA record of 46.31 set by Todd Sauerbrun at West Virginia between 1991-94. Kaser also is second this season averaging 47.96 yards per punt, trailing Florida Atlantic punter Dalton Schomp's average of 48.00 per punt.

BOUNCE BACK: The Cardinals opened the season losing their first three games - including a 20-17 loss to now-No. 1 Clemson. They enter the bowl game having won five of their last six. Petrino said they just working hard. ''Obviously not something that we ever want to do again, and we did not enjoy the experience at all,'' Petrino said. ''But we fought through it.''

YOU AGAIN: This time last year, John Chavis was prepping LSU's defense for this game, which the Tigers lost 31-28 to Notre Dame. Chavis then bolted for Texas A&M where the defensive coordinator has helped the Aggies across the board from last season.

SUSPENDED: Sumlin said sophomore wide receiver Speedy Noil is suspended for the bowl game. Noil caught 21 passes for 226 yards and two TDs this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Early Bowl Tips
December 29, 2015

**Memphis vs. Auburn**

-- The Birmingham Bowl shouldn’t have a hard time getting fans in the seats this year with Auburn and Memphis colliding at Legion Field. As of Tuesday, most betting shops had Auburn (6-6 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 62.5 points for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Tigers were +140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).

-- Auburn has had back-to-back disappointing seasons since going to the BCS Championship Game in the first year of Gus Malzahn’s tenure. Many pundits, including this knucklehead on the keyboard, had Auburn pegged to be a national-title contender. But putrid quarterback play, an injury to Carl Lawson and general issues in all three phases resulted in a .500 record made possible only by an overtime win at home over Jacksonville State that required a furious rally to force the extra session at the end of regulation.

-- Auburn won’t have defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who bolted The Plains to replace Steve Spurrier as South Carolina’s next head coach. Therefore, linebackers coach Lance Thompson will serve as the interim DC in the Birmingham Bowl. As for the next full-time DC, AU is reportedly in talks with Mississippi St. DC Manny Diaz, but there has been no announcement on this front.

-- Memphis (9-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) enjoyed another outstanding season under head coach Justin Fuente, prompting him to take a better job at Virginia Tech. The interim coach for the bowl game is Darrell Dickey, the former head coach at North Texas who has been the Tigers’ offensive coordinator. Dickey will be retained by new head coach Mike Norvell in a to-be-determined position.

-- Memphis is hoping to post 10-win seasons in consecutive years for the first time in school history. The Tigers rank seventh in the nation in scoring, averaging 42.7 points per game. They scored a school-record 512 points.

-- Memphis won its first eight games, including scalps of bowl-bound foes like Bowling Green, Cincinnati, USF, Ole Miss and Tulsa. However, the Tigers would drop three straight vs. Navy (45-20), at Houston (35-34) and at Temple (31-12). They avoided a four-game losing streak by smashing SMU by a 63-0 count in the regular-season finale. Junior quarterback Paxton Lynch completed 9-of-14 passes for 222 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception. The seven TD passes were distributed to seven different players. The defense limited the Mustangs to 93 yards of total offense.

-- Lynch has completed 280-of-406 passes (69.0%) for 3,670 yards with an amazing 28/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mose Frazier has been Lynch’s favorite target, hauling in 66 receptions for 750 yards and four TDs. Anthony Miller has made 44 catches for 684 yards and five TDs, while Phil Mayhue has snared 47 balls for 644 yards and one TD.

-- Memphis RB Doroland Dorceus has rushed for a team-best 613 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Dorceus also has 11 receptions for 217 yards and three TDs. Jarvis Cooper and Sam Craft have rushed for five TDs apiece and 363 and 321 yards, respectively. Jamarius Henderson has also rushed for 310 yards and four TDs, so there’s obviously depth galore in the backfield.

-- Auburn lost four of its last six games both SU and ATS, including a 29-13 loss to Alabama as a 14.5-point home underdog. The Tigers were ahead of the number the entire game until Derrick Henry busted off a 25-yard TD run with 26 seconds remaining. Jeremy Johnson completed 10-of-23 throws for 169 yards and one TD without an interception. Jovon Robinson rushed for 51 yards on 14 carries.

-- Malzahn hasn’t announced a starting QB yet. Johnson was the starter at the beginning of the season and has been since Sean White was injured in a home game vs. Ole Miss. For the season, Johnson has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 111 yards and five TDs. After throwing five interceptions in the first two games, Johnson has a 6/2 TD-INT ratio in the last seven games he’s appeared in. White has connected on 57.7 percent of his passes for 1,064 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions.

-- Auburn RB Peyton Barber has rushed for a team-best 976 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.3 YPC. Robinson has run for 513 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC. Ricardo Louis is AU’s best WR, hauling in 45 receptions for 699 yards and three TDs.

-- These schools have only faced each other twice. Memphis won both meetings in 1975 and ’76.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-3-2 overall for Auburn.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for Memphis (6-6), but the Tigers have seen the ‘under’ hit in three straight and four of their last five.

-- The forecast in B’ham is for temperatures in the 50s, cloudy conditions and a 50-percent chance of rain.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for Wednesday at noon Eastern on ESPN.

**North Carolina State vs. Mississippi State**

-- The Belk Bowl in Charlotte will pit North Carolina State against Mississippi State at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday afternoon. ESPN will have the telecast. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Bulldogs favored by 6.5 points with a total of 60.5.

-- Mississippi State (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) had a season win total of 7.5, so it exceeded expectations a bit this year and hooked up ‘over’ backers with a winner. Dan Mullen’s team is going bowling and has a winning record for a sixth straight season. The Bulldogs swept through non-conference play and went 4-4 in SEC action. They were single-digit favorites just once, easily covering the number in a 31-13 win at Missouri as 7.5-point road ‘chalk.’

-- Mississippi State took a four-game winning streak into a Nov. 14 showdown vs. Alabama in Starkville. However, after failing on a fourth-and-goal try from the one on their opening drive, the Bulldogs were thumped by a 31-6 count. They would bounce back to win at 51-50 thriller at Arkansas in come-from-behind fashion, only to lose at home to Ole Miss 38-27 in the Egg Bowl the following week.

-- MSU is led by senior QB Dak Prescott, who led the team in rushing, passing and touchdowns. Prescott completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 3,413 yards with a 25/4 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 541 yards and 10 TDs. His favorite target is junior Fred Ross, who produced 81 receptions for 933 yards and four TDs. Junior De’Runnya Wilson has 54 catches for 809 yards and nine TDs.

-- Mississippi State will be without senior DE Ryan Brown, who can’t play due to a foot injury. Brown had 39 tackles, eight tackles for losses totaling 55 yards, 2.5 sacks, 10 QB hurries and five passes broken up. Also, MSU’s defense won’t have starting LB Zach Jackson due to personal reasons. Jackson tallied 44 tackles, four tackles for loss, one sack, two passes broken up and one QB hurry. The Bulldogs are already down their two best DBs, as Will Redmond and Kendrick Market sustained season-ending injuries in October. Finally, TE Gus Walley is also ‘out’ (concussion). Walley had 19 catches for 146 yards and one TD.

-- North Carolina State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) went 3-9 in Dave Doeren’s first season, but it is back in the postseason for a second straight year. The Wolfpack beat UCF 34-27 as a 2.5-point underdogs at last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl.

-- N.C. State has been an unmitigated disaster in underdog roles this year, going 0-4 both SU and ATS.

-- N.C. State started the season 4-0 against a cupcake non-conference schedule, only to limp to a 3-5 ledger in ACC play. Four of those five defeats came by double-digit margins. The Wolfpack posted a 0-5 record both SU and ATS in five contests against bowl-bound opponents.

-- N.C. State senior QB Jacoby Brissett enjoyed another stellar campaign, throwing for 2,448 yards with a 19/4 TD-INT ratio. In his two seasons with the Wolfpack since transferring from Florida, Brissett threw 42 TD passes compared to only nine interceptions. He rushed for 303 yards and five TDs this year.

-- N.C. State RB Matt Dayes was en route to an outstanding year, rushing for 865 yards and 12 TDs with a 6.5 YPC average through eight games. However, a toe injury will cause him to the bowl game after sitting out the last four regular-season contests.

-- Jaylen Samuels is Brissett’s favorite target. Samuels produced 64 receptions for 599 yards and seven TDs during the regular season.

-- MSU has won three of its five bowl games on Mullen’s watch, but it has posted just a 2-3 spread record. The Bulldogs lost a 49-34 decision to Ga. Tech at last year’s Orange Bowl.

-- There’s an 80-percent chance of rain in Charlotte on Wednesday with likely thundershowers.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Bulldogs.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Wolfpack, but it has seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games and four of its last six.