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Thursday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 23, 2015
**Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan**
-- The Popeyes Bahamas Bowl will pit the MAC up against Conference USA, as Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan will collide in Nassau on Wednesday at noon Eastern on ESPN. As of Tuesday night, most betting shops had Western Michigan (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) installed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 63.5 points. The Blue Raiders were +170 to win outright (risk $100 to win $170).
-- Middle Tennessee (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including back-to-back victories over North Texas and Texas-San Antonio by combined scores of 83-14. Brent Stockstill stole the show against UTSA by completing 24-of-30 throws for 257 yards and one touchdowns without an interception. Shane Tucker rushed for a team-high 57 yards and two TDs on 12 carries, while Kamani Thomas rushed eight times for 56 yards and one score.
-- Middle Tennessee has been an underdog four times this season, going winless (outright) with a 2-2 spread record. The Blue Raiders have faced four foes who made a bowl game, going 1-3 SU and 2-2 versus the number. The outright win came at home in overtime over Marshall (27-24).
-- Rick Stockstill’s team is going bowling for only the second time in five seasons. In its last postseason appearance two years ago, Middle Tennessee lost 24-6 to Navy as a six-point underdog at the Armed Forces Bowl. This is the fifth bowl game for the Blue Raiders during Stockstill’s 10-year tenure. They have posted a 1-3 record both SU and ATS in the four previous postseason outings.
-- Stockstill has connected on 300-of-450 passes (66.7%) for 3,666 yards with a 27/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has a pair of outstanding wide receivers in Richie James and Ed’Marques Batties. James has a team-best 99 receptions for 1,208 yards, while Batties has 77 catches for 960 yards and 13 TDs.
-- Middle Tennessee faced three opponents from Power Five conferences. The Blue Raiders lost 37-10 at Alabama, lost 27-25 at Illinois and dropped a 17-13 decision to Vanderbilt at home when the Commodores overcame a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter.
-- Middle Tennessee ranks 28th in the nation in total offense and averages 34.2 points per game (34th). The Blue Raiders’ defense is 59th in total defense, 93rd against the pass and 39th versus the run. They are allowing 25.1 PPG.
-- Western Michigan faced a pair of Power Five schools. The Broncos opened the season at home against Michigan St., losing 37-24, but they scored late for a backdoor cover as 17-point underdogs. WMU lost 38-12 at Ohio St. but took the money as a 34-point ‘dog.
-- P.J. Fleck’s squad avoided a three-game losing streak and denied Toledo a trip to the MAC Championship Game in its regular-season finale. Western Michigan went to The Glass Bowl and dropped the Rockets by a 35-30 count as a seven-point underdog. Zach Terrell completed 12-of-20 passes for 243 yards and two TDs without an interception. Corey Davis had six receptions for 139 yards and two TDs, while Tom Flacco had a 17-yard TD run and a team-best 60 rushing yards on five carries.
- Terrell has completed 66.8 percent of his throws for 3,225 yards with a 27/8 TD-INT ratio. Daniel Braverman has been Terrel’s favorite target, bringing in 103 catches for 1,266 yards and 12 TDs. Davis has 81 receptions for 1,246 yards and 11 TDs.
-- As a true freshman last year, Jarvion Franklin was named the MAC’s Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,551 yards and 24 TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. However, his production took a major dip this year and he’s only been given 20 total carries in the last four games. Franklin had just two games with more than 100 rushing yards. He has 699 rushing yards and five TDs with a 4.8 yards-per-carry average. Most of WMU’s totes have been going to redshirt freshman RB Jamauri Bogan lately. Bogan has rushed for a team-high 836 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC.
-- Western Michigan has been a single-digit favorite twice, compiling a 0-2 spread record. The Broncos lost outright (43-17) at Georgia Southern as 5.5-point road ‘chalk.’
-- WMU faced eight bowl-bound foes, producing a 3-5 SU record and a 4-4 ATS mark with outright triumphs over Ohio, Toledo and Central Michigan.
-- The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive games for the Blue Raiders to improve to 8-4. They have seen their games play to average combined scores of 59.3 PPG.
-- The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Broncos, though the ‘under’ has cashed in three of their last four games.
-- Kickoff is slated for Thursday at noon Eastern on ESPN.
**San Diego State vs. Cincinnati**
-- We have a Mountain West-AAC showdown slated for Thursday night at the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, where San Diego State will take on Cincinnati. As of Wednesday afternoon, most spots had San Diego State favored by three points with a total of 57 for ‘over/under’ wagers.
-- San Diego State (10-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) has won nine in a row with eight of those victories coming by margins of 14 points or more. The Aztecs, who are 7-1-1 ATS during their nine-game surge, won the Mountain West Conference by beating Air Force 27-24 as 3.5-point home favorites in the MWC Championship Game. With starting QB Maxwell Smith out with a torn ACL, redshirt freshman Christian Chapman completed 9-of-14 passes for 203 yards and one TD without an interception. He also ran six times for 32 yards en route to earning Offensive MVP honors for the game.
-- If you look at injury reports at various websites, you’ll see Smith as ‘out’ for the season. However, he has been practicing with the team and has told the media that he’s going to try to play. Whether or not Rocky Long will allow that remains to be seen. For the season, Smith has completed 55.3 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards with a 13/2 TD-INT ratio. Chapman has also completed 55.3 percent of his throws for 323 yards with a 1/1 TD-INT ratio. Smith badly wants to play in what would be his first postseason appearance after transferring from Kentucky.
-- San Diego State is going bowling for a school-record sixth straight season. The Aztecs are 2-3 both SU and ATS in the five previous postseason games, including a 17-16 loss to Navy as three-point favorites at last year’s Poinsettia Bowl.
-- San Diego State loves feeding the rock to junior RB Donnel Pumphrey, who has already the school’s second all-time leading rusher. If he sticks around for his senior campaign, he’ll almost certainly surpass Marshall Fauk for the all-time lead next year. Pumphrey rushed for 1,554 yards and 16 TDs this year, averaging 5.5 YPC. Chase Price gets plenty of carries too, rushing for 940 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC.
-- Micah Holder is SDS’s best receiver, hauling in 23 receptions for 425 yards and five TDs. Pumphrey also catches the ball well out of the backfield, recording 26 receptions for 395 yards and three TDs.
-- San Diego State is ranked fifth in the nation in total defense, sixth against the run, 13th against the pass and 10th in scoring defense (17.2 PPG).
-- Cincinnati (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season with three other AAC teams spending a good chunk of the season in the national rankings. The Bearcats weren’t one of those teams, losing five times vs. Temple (34-26), at Memphis (53-46), at BYU (38-24), at Houston (33-30) and at South Fla. (65-27). They had their best win at home vs. Miami and also beat bowl-bound foes UConn and Tulsa.
-- Cincinnati junior QB Gunner Kiel is ‘out’ and didn’t make the trip to Hawaii. “Gunner is out with personal problems,” UC head coach Tommy Tuberville told Cincinnati.com. “He’s asked if we can kind of recognize his privacy. He’s not off the team. He’ll be back, but I don’t know when. That’s pretty much all I can say about it.”
-- Kiel, a junior who might go pro, connected on 65.2 percent of his throws for 2,777 yards with a 19/11 TD-INT ratio during the regular season. He suffered a concussion in the loss at Memphis, however, allowing redshirt freshman Hayden Moore to get plenty of playing time. In fact, Moore threw for a school-record 557 yards and four TDs despite missing the first quarter against the Tigers. With Kiel out the next week vs. Miami, Moore threw for 279 yards and a pair of scores. For the season, Moore has completed 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with a 9/8 TD-INT ratio.
-- UC splits the load on the ground between three quality RBs. Hosey Williams has a team-high 727 rushing yards and four TDs with a 5.6 YPC average. Mike Boone has run for 717 yards and eight TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC. Tion Green has rushed for 697 yards and eight TDs with a 4.9 YPC average.
-- Shaq Washington has a team-best 88 receptions for 971 yards and six TDs for the Bearcats. Chris Moore has 39 catches for 823 yards and seven TDs, while Max Morrison has 45 grabs for 533 yards and three TDs.
-- Cincinnati has been an underdog four times this season, compiling a 3-1 spread record.
-- This is Cincinnati’s fifth straight trip to the postseason, but the Bearcats have lost both bowl games on Tuberville’s watch. They lost 39-17 to North Carolina two seasons ago and went down by a 33-17 count vs. Virginia Tech in last year’s Military Bowl.
-- San Diego State owns a 2-1 spread record in three games as a single-digit favorite. The Aztecs have faced seven opponents that are in the postseason, winning outright in five of those contests while posting a 3-3-1 spread record.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the Aztecs, whose games have averaged combined point totals of 48.5 PPG.
-- Totals have been an overall wash for Cincinnati (6-6), but the ‘under’ is 6-2 in its last eight games. The Bearcats, who are fifth in the nation in total offense and fourth in passing, have seen their games average combined scores of 66.3 PPG.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast Thursday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
December 23, 2015
**Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan**
-- The Popeyes Bahamas Bowl will pit the MAC up against Conference USA, as Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan will collide in Nassau on Wednesday at noon Eastern on ESPN. As of Tuesday night, most betting shops had Western Michigan (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) installed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 63.5 points. The Blue Raiders were +170 to win outright (risk $100 to win $170).
-- Middle Tennessee (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including back-to-back victories over North Texas and Texas-San Antonio by combined scores of 83-14. Brent Stockstill stole the show against UTSA by completing 24-of-30 throws for 257 yards and one touchdowns without an interception. Shane Tucker rushed for a team-high 57 yards and two TDs on 12 carries, while Kamani Thomas rushed eight times for 56 yards and one score.
-- Middle Tennessee has been an underdog four times this season, going winless (outright) with a 2-2 spread record. The Blue Raiders have faced four foes who made a bowl game, going 1-3 SU and 2-2 versus the number. The outright win came at home in overtime over Marshall (27-24).
-- Rick Stockstill’s team is going bowling for only the second time in five seasons. In its last postseason appearance two years ago, Middle Tennessee lost 24-6 to Navy as a six-point underdog at the Armed Forces Bowl. This is the fifth bowl game for the Blue Raiders during Stockstill’s 10-year tenure. They have posted a 1-3 record both SU and ATS in the four previous postseason outings.
-- Stockstill has connected on 300-of-450 passes (66.7%) for 3,666 yards with a 27/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has a pair of outstanding wide receivers in Richie James and Ed’Marques Batties. James has a team-best 99 receptions for 1,208 yards, while Batties has 77 catches for 960 yards and 13 TDs.
-- Middle Tennessee faced three opponents from Power Five conferences. The Blue Raiders lost 37-10 at Alabama, lost 27-25 at Illinois and dropped a 17-13 decision to Vanderbilt at home when the Commodores overcame a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter.
-- Middle Tennessee ranks 28th in the nation in total offense and averages 34.2 points per game (34th). The Blue Raiders’ defense is 59th in total defense, 93rd against the pass and 39th versus the run. They are allowing 25.1 PPG.
-- Western Michigan faced a pair of Power Five schools. The Broncos opened the season at home against Michigan St., losing 37-24, but they scored late for a backdoor cover as 17-point underdogs. WMU lost 38-12 at Ohio St. but took the money as a 34-point ‘dog.
-- P.J. Fleck’s squad avoided a three-game losing streak and denied Toledo a trip to the MAC Championship Game in its regular-season finale. Western Michigan went to The Glass Bowl and dropped the Rockets by a 35-30 count as a seven-point underdog. Zach Terrell completed 12-of-20 passes for 243 yards and two TDs without an interception. Corey Davis had six receptions for 139 yards and two TDs, while Tom Flacco had a 17-yard TD run and a team-best 60 rushing yards on five carries.
- Terrell has completed 66.8 percent of his throws for 3,225 yards with a 27/8 TD-INT ratio. Daniel Braverman has been Terrel’s favorite target, bringing in 103 catches for 1,266 yards and 12 TDs. Davis has 81 receptions for 1,246 yards and 11 TDs.
-- As a true freshman last year, Jarvion Franklin was named the MAC’s Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,551 yards and 24 TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. However, his production took a major dip this year and he’s only been given 20 total carries in the last four games. Franklin had just two games with more than 100 rushing yards. He has 699 rushing yards and five TDs with a 4.8 yards-per-carry average. Most of WMU’s totes have been going to redshirt freshman RB Jamauri Bogan lately. Bogan has rushed for a team-high 836 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC.
-- Western Michigan has been a single-digit favorite twice, compiling a 0-2 spread record. The Broncos lost outright (43-17) at Georgia Southern as 5.5-point road ‘chalk.’
-- WMU faced eight bowl-bound foes, producing a 3-5 SU record and a 4-4 ATS mark with outright triumphs over Ohio, Toledo and Central Michigan.
-- The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive games for the Blue Raiders to improve to 8-4. They have seen their games play to average combined scores of 59.3 PPG.
-- The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Broncos, though the ‘under’ has cashed in three of their last four games.
-- Kickoff is slated for Thursday at noon Eastern on ESPN.
**San Diego State vs. Cincinnati**
-- We have a Mountain West-AAC showdown slated for Thursday night at the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, where San Diego State will take on Cincinnati. As of Wednesday afternoon, most spots had San Diego State favored by three points with a total of 57 for ‘over/under’ wagers.
-- San Diego State (10-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) has won nine in a row with eight of those victories coming by margins of 14 points or more. The Aztecs, who are 7-1-1 ATS during their nine-game surge, won the Mountain West Conference by beating Air Force 27-24 as 3.5-point home favorites in the MWC Championship Game. With starting QB Maxwell Smith out with a torn ACL, redshirt freshman Christian Chapman completed 9-of-14 passes for 203 yards and one TD without an interception. He also ran six times for 32 yards en route to earning Offensive MVP honors for the game.
-- If you look at injury reports at various websites, you’ll see Smith as ‘out’ for the season. However, he has been practicing with the team and has told the media that he’s going to try to play. Whether or not Rocky Long will allow that remains to be seen. For the season, Smith has completed 55.3 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards with a 13/2 TD-INT ratio. Chapman has also completed 55.3 percent of his throws for 323 yards with a 1/1 TD-INT ratio. Smith badly wants to play in what would be his first postseason appearance after transferring from Kentucky.
-- San Diego State is going bowling for a school-record sixth straight season. The Aztecs are 2-3 both SU and ATS in the five previous postseason games, including a 17-16 loss to Navy as three-point favorites at last year’s Poinsettia Bowl.
-- San Diego State loves feeding the rock to junior RB Donnel Pumphrey, who has already the school’s second all-time leading rusher. If he sticks around for his senior campaign, he’ll almost certainly surpass Marshall Fauk for the all-time lead next year. Pumphrey rushed for 1,554 yards and 16 TDs this year, averaging 5.5 YPC. Chase Price gets plenty of carries too, rushing for 940 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC.
-- Micah Holder is SDS’s best receiver, hauling in 23 receptions for 425 yards and five TDs. Pumphrey also catches the ball well out of the backfield, recording 26 receptions for 395 yards and three TDs.
-- San Diego State is ranked fifth in the nation in total defense, sixth against the run, 13th against the pass and 10th in scoring defense (17.2 PPG).
-- Cincinnati (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season with three other AAC teams spending a good chunk of the season in the national rankings. The Bearcats weren’t one of those teams, losing five times vs. Temple (34-26), at Memphis (53-46), at BYU (38-24), at Houston (33-30) and at South Fla. (65-27). They had their best win at home vs. Miami and also beat bowl-bound foes UConn and Tulsa.
-- Cincinnati junior QB Gunner Kiel is ‘out’ and didn’t make the trip to Hawaii. “Gunner is out with personal problems,” UC head coach Tommy Tuberville told Cincinnati.com. “He’s asked if we can kind of recognize his privacy. He’s not off the team. He’ll be back, but I don’t know when. That’s pretty much all I can say about it.”
-- Kiel, a junior who might go pro, connected on 65.2 percent of his throws for 2,777 yards with a 19/11 TD-INT ratio during the regular season. He suffered a concussion in the loss at Memphis, however, allowing redshirt freshman Hayden Moore to get plenty of playing time. In fact, Moore threw for a school-record 557 yards and four TDs despite missing the first quarter against the Tigers. With Kiel out the next week vs. Miami, Moore threw for 279 yards and a pair of scores. For the season, Moore has completed 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with a 9/8 TD-INT ratio.
-- UC splits the load on the ground between three quality RBs. Hosey Williams has a team-high 727 rushing yards and four TDs with a 5.6 YPC average. Mike Boone has run for 717 yards and eight TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC. Tion Green has rushed for 697 yards and eight TDs with a 4.9 YPC average.
-- Shaq Washington has a team-best 88 receptions for 971 yards and six TDs for the Bearcats. Chris Moore has 39 catches for 823 yards and seven TDs, while Max Morrison has 45 grabs for 533 yards and three TDs.
-- Cincinnati has been an underdog four times this season, compiling a 3-1 spread record.
-- This is Cincinnati’s fifth straight trip to the postseason, but the Bearcats have lost both bowl games on Tuberville’s watch. They lost 39-17 to North Carolina two seasons ago and went down by a 33-17 count vs. Virginia Tech in last year’s Military Bowl.
-- San Diego State owns a 2-1 spread record in three games as a single-digit favorite. The Aztecs have faced seven opponents that are in the postseason, winning outright in five of those contests while posting a 3-3-1 spread record.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the Aztecs, whose games have averaged combined point totals of 48.5 PPG.
-- Totals have been an overall wash for Cincinnati (6-6), but the ‘under’ is 6-2 in its last eight games. The Bearcats, who are fifth in the nation in total offense and fourth in passing, have seen their games average combined scores of 66.3 PPG.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast Thursday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
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