The Bum's National Football League Week # 5 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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Giants TE Fells could lose foot to staph infection

New York Giants tight end Daniel Fells could have his foot amputated from a staph infection, according to NFL.com.

Fells has had five surgeries to stave off the infection and doctors are fighting to avoid amputating his foot, Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reported Sunday.

Fells has been hospitalized for more than a week as he battles a persistent Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection that necessitated being placed in the Intensive Care Unit on Friday, according to the report. He is expected to undergo more operations on his foot, which is at risk for further infection.

According to Rapoport, citing a source with knowledge of Fells' condition, doctors also fear that the MRSA has infected his bone and could travel into his blood.

Giants spokesman Pat Hanlon told ESPN.com that it "is a serious situation that has been taken seriously from the beginning. We're all fighting for Daniel."

Fells, 32, was placed on season-ending injured reserve Monday.

After Fells' diagnosis, the Giants took precautions to prevent further spread of MRSA by scrubbing their locker room, training room and meeting rooms, a source told ESPN.

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Jaguars own Bucs in rare in-state matchup

The Jacksonville Jaguars will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon and while these two Florida teams don't meet frequently, the Jaguars have had the edge.

The Jags head into Sunday's meeting winners of four-straight versus the Bucs and lead the all-time series 4-1. Jacksonville has covered the spread in four of those five meetings and in three straight versus Tampa.

This time around, the Jags are pegged as 2.5-point road dogs after opening +3. The Jags have been dogs in each of the last three meetings have have won outright.

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Patriots struggling ATS off a bye week

As reported by Jason Logan in this week's Muffed Punt feature, the the New England Patriots have not been the best bet in their games following a bye week.

The Patriots are a very good 4-2 straight up following the week off, but have gone just 1-4-1 against the spread in those games since the 2009 season.

New England is presently an 8.5-point road favorite at the Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon and heads in 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after covering at the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 and versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3.

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Browns-Ravens matchups usually low-scoring affairs

The Under has gone 7-2 in the previous nine meetings between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens heading into their showdown at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Over the course of those previous nine contests, the two AFC North rivals have combined to score an average of 34.7 points per game.

Books opened the total for this matchup at 44, but that's come down to 42.5 with kickoff approaching.

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Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

1:00 PM EDT

451 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 43.5 42 / 42.5 / 42 41.5 -105
452 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 -15 -2.5 -05 / -2 / -1.5 -1 -115

TV: CBS, DTV: 711 | PARTLY CLOUDY, NORTHWEST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 84, RH 58% HEAT INDEX 88

1:00 PM EDT

453 BUFFALO BILLS -3 -20 -1 / PK / -1 -05 PK -115
454 TENNESSEE TITANS 44.5 42.5 / 43 / 43.5 43 -105

BUF-RB-LeSean McCoy-OUT | TV: CBS, DTV: 712 | MOSTLY SUNNY, SOUTH WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 72, RH 42% HEAT INDEX 71

1:00 PM EDT

455 CLEVELAND BROWNS 44 43u12 / 43 / 43.5 43 +225
456 BALTIMORE RAVENS -6.5 -6 / -6 -15 / -6.5 -05 -6 -05 -275

BAL-WR-Steve Smith-Doubtful | TV: CBS, DTV: 709 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WEST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 68, RH 45%

1:00 PM EDT

457 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 47 47.5 / 48 / 47.5 48 +260
458 ATLANTA FALCONS -8 -6.5 / -6.5 -15 / -7 -05 -7 -325

TV: FOX, DTV: 705 | Dome

1:00 PM EDT

459 CHICAGO BEARS 46.5 45 / 44 / 44.5 44 +365
460 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -10 -9 / -9 -11 / -9.5 -05 -9.5 -460

CHI-WR-Alshon Jeffery-Doubtful | TV: FOX, DTV: 707 | MOSTLY SUNNY, SOUTHWEST WIND 10-15, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 79, RH 43% HEAT INDEX 79

1:00 PM EDT

461 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 48.5 49.5 / 50 / 49.5 49 +225
462 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5 -15 -6 -15 / -6.5 -05 / -6.5 -6.5 -05 -275

TV: FOX, DTV: 708 | PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHWEST WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 67, RH 41%

1:00 PM EDT

463 ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.5 46 / 45.5 / 45.5u11 45 +355
464 GREEN BAY PACKERS -10 -05 -8.5 / -9 -05 / -9 -9 -05 -450

GB-WR-Jordy Nelson-OUT | TV: CBS, DTV: 710 | SUNNY, SOUTHWEST WIND 10-15, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 71, RH 54% HEAT INDEX 71

1:00 PM EDT

465 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 44 43.5o11 / 43.5 / 44 44.5 +150
466 CINCINNATI BENGALS -3 EVEN -3 / -3 -20 / -3 -15 -3 -20 -170

SEA-RB-Marshawn Lynch-OUT | TV: FOX, DTV: 706 | PARTLY SUNNY, SOUTHWEST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 69, RH 42%

4:05 PM EDT

467 ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 -05 -4 / -4 -05 / -3.5 -15 -4 -15 -210
468 DETROIT LIONS 44 45.5 / 45.5u27 / 45.5 46 +180

TV: FOX, DTV: 713 | Dome

4:25 PM EDT

469 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7 -9 -05 / -8.5 / -9 -05 -8 -400
470 DALLAS COWBOYS 49 50 / 50.5 / 50 50.5 +325

DAL-QB-Tony Romo-OUT | DAL-WR-Dez Bryant-OUT | TV: CBS, DTV: 714 | SUNNY, SOUTH WIND 11-16, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 96, RH 28% HEAT INDEX 96 (A T and T STADIUM ROOF MAY CLOSE IN HOT WEATHER)

4:25 PM EDT

471 DENVER BRONCOS -5.5 -4.5 -05 / -4 -15 / -4 -4 -15 -205
472 OAKLAND RAIDERS 44 43.5o11 / 43.5 / 44 45 +175

TV: CBS, DTV: 715 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WEST WIND 6-11. GAME TEMP 74, RH 57% HEAT INDEX 76

8:30 PM EDT

473 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 43 43 / 43.5 / 43.5u11 43.5 +285
474 NEW YORK GIANTS -7 -05 -7 -15 / -7 -20 / -7.5 -05 -7.5 -350

TV: NBC | FAIR, SOUTHWEST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 60, RH 53%

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NFL Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:30 PM San Francisco +7.5 982 31.81% N.Y. Giants -7.5 2105 68.19% View View

1:00 PM Washington +7 1096 33.17% Atlanta -7 2208 66.83% View View

1:00 PM Seattle +3 1316 41.95% Cincinnati -3 1821 58.05% View View

1:00 PM Cleveland +6 1377 43.83% Baltimore -6 1765 56.17% View View

1:00 PM St. Louis +8.5 1539 47.80% Green Bay -8.5 1681 52.20% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville +1.5 1666 53.69% Tampa Bay -1.5 1437 46.31% View View

1:00 PM Chicago +10 1824 57.69% Kansas City -10 1338 42.31% View View

1:00 PM New Orleans +6.5 1793 57.78% Philadelphia -6.5 1310 42.22% View View

4:25 PM Denver -4 1921 61.04% Oakland +4 1226 38.96% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo -1 2083 64.25% Tennessee +1 1159 35.75% View View

4:05 PM Arizona -4 1955 64.42% Detroit +4 1080 35.58% View View

4:25 PM New England -8 2245 71.07% Dallas +8 914 28.93% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Seattle 44 930 46.45% Cincinnati 44 1072 53.55% View View

1:00 PM Cleveland 43 958 46.66% Baltimore 43 1095 53.34% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville 41.5 974 48.68% Tampa Bay 41.5 1027 51.32% View View

8:30 PM San Francisco 43.5 1030 52.85% N.Y. Giants 43.5 919 47.15% View View

1:00 PM New Orleans 49.5 1195 57.70% Philadelphia 49.5 876 42.30% View View

1:00 PM Chicago 44 1235 58.06% Kansas City 44 892 41.94% View View

4:05 PM Arizona 46 1137 59.62% Detroit 46 770 40.38% View View

4:25 PM Denver 44 1208 59.92% Oakland 44 808 40.08% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo 43 1261 61.24% Tennessee 43 798 38.76% View View

1:00 PM St. Louis 45 1255 61.73% Green Bay 45 778 38.27% View View

1:00 PM Washington 48.5 1341 63.89% Atlanta 48.5 758 36.11% View View

4:25 PM New England 50.5 1425 69.48% Dallas 50.5 626 30.52% View View

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SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -10 500
Kansas City - Over 44 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle +3 500 DOUBLED PLAY
Cincinnati - Over 44.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Atlanta - Under 48.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Tampa Bay - Under 41.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans +6.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 49.5 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +6 500
Baltimore - Over 43 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -8.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Green Bay - Over 45 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -1 500 *****
Tennessee - Over 43 500

Arizona - 4:05 PM ET Detroit +4 500
Detroit - Over 46 500

New England - 4:25 PM ET Dallas +8 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Dallas - Over 50.5 500

Denver - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +4 500 BLOW OUT
Oakland - Over 44.5 500

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Sunday Night Selection:

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 8:30 PM ET N.Y. Giants -7 500 *****

N.Y. Giants - Under 43 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/11/15 )

SUNDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/11/15 )


*****......................... 0 - 2 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS..............1- 1 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..................1 - 1 - 0
BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 11 - 10 - 2
double play...................................25 - 17 - 2
triple play......................................12 - 11 - 1
blow out........................................4 - 2
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 22 - 11 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................1 - 1
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 3 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 4 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 1
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO MONDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/12/15

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MNF - Steelers at Chargers
October 11, 2015

The Steelers and Chargers close out Week 5 of the NFL card as both teams have started at 2-2, but each club has taken a different path to a similar record. Pittsburgh plays with at least 10 days of rest for the second time this season, losing both Thursday games at New England and Baltimore, but winning both Sunday contests against San Francisco and St. Louis. Now, the Steelers venture to the West Coast for the first time this season, looking to erase the bitter taste of last Thursday’s overtime loss to their hated rival.

Playing without star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger following his knee injury in Week 3, the Steelers turned to veteran Mike Vick to keep the train on the tracks for the next month until Big Ben returns. However, Pittsburgh couldn’t hold onto a 20-7 lead against rival Baltimore in Week 3, eventually losing in overtime, 23-20. What hurt even more than the loss to the dreaded Ravens was how they lost, missing two field goals in the fourth quarter, while failing to convert a pair of fourth downs in Baltimore territory in overtime.

The passing game of Pittsburgh took a hit with Roethlisberger out, as Vick threw for only 124 yards, while top receiver Antonio Brown was held to below 100 yards for the first time this season by racking up just 42 yards. Le’Veon Bell broke the 100-yards mark for the first time since his two-game suspension, rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown, but didn’t have critical carries in overtime as the Steelers fell to 0-2 in primetime games this season.

The Chargers haven’t been razor-sharp yet in any of their four games, losing at Cincinnati and Minnesota on the road, while holding off the Lions and Browns in two home victories. In last Sunday’s narrow 30-27 win over Cleveland, Mike McCoy’s club put up at least 400 yards at home for the second time this season, but needed a 34-yard field goal from Josh Lambo in the final seconds. San Diego failed to cover for the third straight week, while needing to rally from a 21-3 deficit in the season opener against Detroit to cash as three-point favorites in a 33-28 triumph.

San Diego and Pittsburgh are hooking up for the first time since 2012, as the Lightning Bolts escaped Heinz Field with a 34-24 victory as seven-point road underdogs. The Chargers built a 34-10 advantage before a couple of mop-up touchdowns by the Steelers made the final score more respectable. Philip Rivers tossed three touchdown passes in the win to snap a three-game losing streak to Pittsburgh that dated back to 2008. Pittsburgh is making its first trip to Qualcomm Stadium since 2006 (also a night game) as the Steelers lost 23-13 as 3 ½-point underdogs.

From a totals standpoint, the Chargers haven’t had a problem scoring at home, finishing ‘over’ the total in both contests at Qualcomm Stadium. The Steelers have played to a pair of ‘unders’ away from Heinz Field, which includes a 12-6 victory at St. Louis in Week 3, the game in which Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury. Since the start of 2014, Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the ‘under’ on the highway, while making its first trip to the West Coast since 2013 in a 21-18 loss at Oakland (which went ‘under’ 40).

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says on the defensive side, the Steelers have had their issues, "There were grave concerns about the Pittsburgh defense, particularly against the pass, heading into the season with the loss of Dick LeBeau and a lot of youth on the roster. Pittsburgh has allowed nearly 70 percent completions this season but they also have 14 sacks and overall the numbers on defense have been close to league average in many areas.”

Taking a look at the home team, Nelson says the Chargers haven’t exactly beaten stellar competition in spite of putting up big numbers, “San Diego is 2-2 with a -14 point differential on the season as the wins came at home by just five and three points respectively against teams that are now a combined 1-7. San Diego is third in the NFL in total offense with 411 yards per game with over three-fourths of that yardage coming in the passing game behind Philip Rivers. Rivers has prolific numbers this season with the most passing yards in the league, but he has been sacked 12 times and has four interceptions, two of which have been returned for touchdowns. More critically, the San Diego defense is last in the NFL through four weeks allowing 4.9 yards per rush on defense. While San Diego has allowed only 225 passing yards per game, the Chargers have surrendered 7.7 yards per attempt which is ninth-worst in the league despite a schedule that has not exactly featured the cream of the crop in opposing quarterbacks.”

The Steelers are playing under the lights for the third time this season but for the first time on Monday night, as Mike Tomlin’s squad won twice in two opportunities in 2014 in Monday action. Pittsburgh rallied past Houston at home and held off Tennessee on the highway, as the Steelers own a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS record under Tomlin on Mondays. The Chargers are hosting their first Monday night contest since beating the Colts in 2013, as San Diego fell short on the road at Arizona to kick off the 2014 season in an 18-17 loss as three-point underdogs.

The Chargers are listed as 3 ½-point home favorites at most books, while creeping up to four at several spots. The total is set between 45 ½ and 46, as San Diego is 4-2 to the ‘under’ in its last six at home with a total of 46 or fewer. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Betting Recap - Week 5

October 12, 2015


Overall Notes

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-4
Against the Spread 6-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 3-9-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

The largest underdog to win straight up
Bears (+10, ML +350) at Chiefs, 18-17

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-9) vs. Rams, 24-10 and Patriots (-9) at Cowboys, 30-6

Frequent Flyer Miles

-- Three teams from the Pacific Time Zone headed to the Eastern Time Zone in Week 5, and they ended up going 1-2 SU and 2-0-1 ATS. The Seahawks held a 24-7 lead, but allowed 17 points in the fourth quarter to the Bengals to change a road cover into a push at most shops. The 49ers nearly pulled the upset against the Giants, but were able to hang on for the cover, 30-27. The Cardinals were favored against the lowly Lions and the result was decided rather early in a 42-17 win. All three of the Pacific vs. Eastern Time Zone games had 'over' totals, too.
Working Overtime

-- Regulation wasn't enough to decide a winner in three games Sunday. The Browns-Ravens, Redskins-Falcons and Seahawks-Bengals saw the home team win two of the three OT games, with Cleveland as the lone exception in their 33-30 win. The road teams were 2-0-1 ATS in the OT games, and the 'over' cashed in two of the three games. The games going to OT had no effect on the total, however.

AFC vs. NFC

-- There were three intraconference battles in Week 5, with the NFC going 2-1 SU/ATS. The Buccaneers won and covered at home, 38-31, against the Jaguars, while the Bears stunned the Chiefs at Arrowhead, 18-17, as a 10-point underdog. The lone AFC team to win and cover was the Patriots, crushing the Cowboys 30-6 at Jerry World. Two of the three AFC vs. NFC battles saw the 'under' come in. Over the past two weeks the under is 5-2, 10-3 over the past three weeks and 12-6-1 (66%) overall this season.

Total Recall

-- The game with the lowest total, the Colts-Texans (40.5) from Thursday night, cashed rather handily. From Sunday's slate, the Jags-Bucs (41.5) had a low total, too, and the Buccaneers nearly took care of it themselves in the 38-31 win. The next lowest totals were the Browns-Ravens (43) and Bills-Titans (43), with those games splitting 1-1. After that it was the Seahawks-Bengals (44), and that also went over. In other words, the five lowest totals on the board had the 'over' go 4-1.

-- The highest total on the board, the Patriots-Cowboys (51), never even came close. The Patriots limited the Cowboys to just two field goals. The Saints-Eagles (49.5) ended up going over thanks to Philly's offensive outburst, while the 'Skins-Falcons never threatened the over, even with the game going to OT.

-- For the first time in a while the 'over' went 2-0 in the first two primetime games, hitting Thursday and Sunday night. So far this season the over is still just 6-9 (40%) through 15 games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Broncos LB DeMarcus Ware (back) suffered what the team is calling back spasms in the win against the Raiders.

-- Browns QB Josh McCown (ankle) made it through the entire OT win in Baltimore, but he banged up his ankle and will be re-evaluated Monday. CB Joe Haden (finger, ribs) was active and then left again.

-- The biggest injury of the weekend came in K.C., as Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (knee) suffered what is believed to be a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his knee. That's terrible news for a Kansas City offense which has already been struggling.

-- Eagles WR Nelson Agholor (ankle) left the win against the Saints due to an ankle injury, although the injury is not believed to be serious.

-- Jaguars RB T.J. Yeldon (groin) left the loss in Tampa with a groin injury, but he said after the game that the injury is not serious.

-- Lions CB DeAndre Levy (hip) aggravated his hip injury and he remains a question mark going forward, making matters worse for the Detroit defense.

-- The Rams lost WR Kenny Britt (knee) and DE Chris Long (knee) to injuries in their loss in Green Bay.

-- Ravens RB Justin Forsett (ankle) left in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury and he was unable to return.

-- Saints WR Marques Colston (shoulder) damaged a win in the loss in Philadelphia and the severity of his injury is not yet known.

Bad Beats

-- The Chiefs entered the fourth quarter with a 17-6 lead against the Bears, they lost Charles to injury in the second half, and it seemed to really affect their momentum on offense. They were outscored 15-0 in the second half, including 12-0 in the fourth quarter, turning a cover into a straight-up loss.

-- Side bettors for the Seahawks were feeling great with the road team up 24-7 as three-point underdogs. However, the Bengals outscored the Seahawks 20-0 in the final quarter and overtime, burning moneyline bettors in the process.

-- The Raiders were covering for the entire game until Broncos CB Chris Harris had a 74-yard interception return for touchdown at 6:53 of the fourth quarter to give Denver a road cover, 16-10. Oakland side bettors had to be beside themselves, as the Denver offense did nothing for the entire game.

-- The 49ers looked like they might help moneyline bettors to an unlikely win, but the Giants had late heroics to pull out a win with a touchdown strike at :21 left in regulation.

Looking Ahead

-- Three more teams go west to east in Week 6, with the Cardinals heading to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers. Those 1pm ET games can be difficult on west-coast teams, and the Cards are doing it in back-to-back weeks. ... The Chargers traverse two time zones to take on the Packers in the Central Time Zone, while the Broncos also go from the Mountain Time Zone to Eastern Time Zone when they invade Cleveland.

-- The Bears make the quick hop over to face the Lions in Week 6. Chicago has lost four straight against Detroit, and they're just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series.

-- The Giants are playing with a lot of confidence heading into their Monday Night matchup against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Giants are 3-11 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in their past 14 meetings with the Eagles, including one playoff matchup.

-- The unbeaten Panthers head to the Pacific Northwest to battle the Seahawks. Carolina has lost five straight meetings with the Seahawks dating back to Dec. 16, 2007, and the Panthers are just 1-4 ATS in those meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Books avoid Week 5 disaster
October 12, 2015

A three-team parlay pays 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600) in Las Vegas and during Sunday's NFL Week 5 action almost everyone in town had a winning three-team combination in the afternoon games with the favorites of Arizona, New England and Denver covering.

“You just have to win one of those late game and things would be okay. Just one,” said the Stratosphere's Hugh Citron.

All three of those favorites would cover the number and it set the books up with a huge risk figure heading into Sunday night's football game with the Giants as seven-point home favorites over the 49ers.

No one wanted the 49ers. Huge parlays were waiting to cash if the Giants beat down the traveling 49ers like everyone else had this season. Two San Francisco road games this season; average score: 12-45.

“We're looking at nearly a seven-figure loss on the day if the Giants cover with the OVER mixed in with the Rangers and OVER in pro baseball,” said MGM Resorts CP of race and sports Jay Rood as the late game was just getting started.

Following the Giants 30-27 win (no cover) and the Blue Jays 5-1 win in the ALDS, Rood and the rest of the sports book directors around town could take a deep breath of relief having just dodged a bullet. It still turned out to be a loss on the day, but it wasn't a complete disaster.

Things could have been much worse as the perfect storm was brewing with the public riding several popular teams.

Three squads -- Green Bay, Atlanta, Cincinnati – entered Week 5 with perfect 4-0 marks against the spread. Only the Packers would cover on the day among the three, but the timing of the late games and only three teams to choose from had everyone on the same parlay and books can't escape a 6/1 payout odds no matter how much wise guy money they might get on the other side.

The public had a no-brainer three-teamer in the afternoon. "Let's see. Three games kicking off after 1:00 p.m. PT, huh? Hmm, Arizona should kill the Lions. The Cowboys have no shot against the Patriots and Denver has beat the tar out of Oakland seven straight games. Yes, I'll have a three-team parlay for $20, please."

That type of betting sequence was happening all over Las Vegas from 12:30 to 1:05 pm on Sunday and for the third time in five weeks it was enough to beat the books. That's crazy stuff. The books don't lose in football consistently, but going 2-3 against the public is a pretty big deal in Las Vegas. The casino bean counters are now getting snarkier with their comments in weekly executive meetings.

I guess the comeback comment would be "at least I didn't lose $1 million."

Sunday's storm was brewing early and it took lots of help to get there, and just because a popular team didn't cover doesn't mean that they didn't hurt the book.

“Baltimore not covering was an early dagger because all the sharp money was on Cleveland,” said Rood.

“And then all the teasers and favorite money-line parlays were riding with Atlanta. We were still barely up for the day in the morning, but the three-teamer in the afternoon did us in.”

In the ultimate salute to Art Modell (guess which gesture), the Browns rolled into Baltimore (-6.5) and won 33-30 in overtime. The Falcons needed overtime to beat the Redskins, 25-19, but failed to cover the 7-point spread. The public was on both favorites, which helped the books with parlays and limited the exposure later in the day.

"The Bears winning cut off a lot of teasers and money-line," said Citron, "but Packers covering hurt us in the morning."

The Packers move to 5-0 ATS with its 24-10 win over the Rams while the Bears had a dramatic comeback for the second consecutive week in an 18-17 win at Kansas City.

Things could have been much worse for the books on Sunday, but all were bailed out with the 49ers playing its first inspired road game and getting the cover. Now it's back to the drawing board with the books trying to get back to .500 on the year against the public.

Keep at it bettors!

[StarDust Bum]

Running to the Counter
October 12, 2015


The Value of NFL Run Defense

Like a giant leak on a sinking ship, one of the first signs of a poor pro football team is weak run defense. Stopping the run is essential to building a championship team. The Top 9 teams at stopping the run last season? Lions, Broncos, Seahawks, Ravens, Jets, Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys and Patriots. All were in the playoffs except the Jets and two made the Super Bowl. The Jets were the only team in that group with a losing record.

For the record, as we roll into October the 2015 list of top run stuffers include the Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks, Jets, Falcons, Giants, Bills, Raiders, Eagles and Cowboys. If that holds up, perhaps we'll see a different look in the postseason with teams like the Cardinals, Jets and Bills sneaking in. Great run defense has anchored Seattle's dominance the last three years, with a pair of NFC titles and one Lombardi Trophy. And Atlanta's 5-0 start hasn't just been keyed by its great offense, but the Falcons are tops in run defense.

And it's not just in 2015. Four years ago the Steelers, Bears, Jets, Chargers, Ravens were in the Top 8 - all playoff teams except one, and three met in the AFC/NFC Champion games. When the Steelers last made the Super Bowl in 2011 they were tops in run defense. Who won the Super Bowl after the 2008 campaign? Those same Steelers, a team with the No. 1 overall defense, including No. 2 against the run.

Great defensive fronts stand out in more ways than one, setting the tone for their team's style of play while forcing many opponents to game plan differently. For instance, when the Patriots play teams with great run defenses they essentially bail on the ground game and throw all day long. It's surprising more teams don't copy that.

Of course, forcing offenses to be one-dimensional is usually an asset for defenses, paring down what plays the opponent is likely to run each time. A defensive coordinator can focus on double-teaming a great wide receiver, for instance, forcing the offense to have even fewer options to go to. Many times that can all start with a strong run defense or pass rush.

A decade ago the Carolina Panthers were 4th in the league at stopping the run behind its fearsome front foursome. They made it to the NFC Championship game. The team just ahead of the Panthers was the Steelers, who won the Super Bowl. In 2003 the Patriots finished No. 3 against the run with the addition of NT Ted Washington. In 2004 they let Washington walk, but added Keith Traylor and rookie Vince Wilfork to the line and finished No. 6 overall against the run. Both those teams won the Super Bowl.

Stopping the run in some capacity is essential for success in football. Think about how many third and short situations you see over the course of a game. If a team can't stop the run, opponents can simply run the ball all day long, picking up first downs and controlling the clock. After four games in 2015, here's a list of NFL teams allowing the most yards rushing per game:

RUSHING YARDS ALLOWED (2015, WEEK 1-5)
Rank Team Yds Allowed SU Record ATS Record
26th Vikings 25 2-2 3-1
27th Lions 127 0-5 1-4
28th Chargers 127 2-2 1-3
29th Packers 130 5-0 5-0
30th Saints 136 1-4 2-3
31st Browns 149 2-3 3-2
32nd Dolphins 160 1-4 1-4

Outside of the Packers it's a dismal group. The combined mark is 13-20 straight up and 16-17 against the number. Take out the Pack and the group is 12-17 ATS. It's likely the Vikings and Packers improve on run defense, too, with Green Bay having DC Dom Capers and NT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews. It's not surprising that the first NFL head coach fired was from that group, the disappointing Dolphins. For perspective, let's look back a few years ago, to 2011 at the same time in the season:

RUSHING YARDS ALLOWED (2011, WEEK 1-5)
Rank Team Yds Allowed SU Record ATS Record
26th NY Jets 134 2-3 1-3-1
27th Panthers 135 1-4 5-0
28th Bears 135 2-3 1-4
29th Bills 138 4-1 3-2
30th Eagles 140 1-4 1-4
31st Colts 145 0-5 2-3
32nd Rams 179 0-4 0-4

Not a lot of wins there, either! The Jets and Bears were expected to be better that year, while the biggest flop was the Eagles. The combined mark was 10-24 straight up and 13-20-1 against the number.

In 2009 it was even more stark, with four teams (Redskins, Texans, Bills, Panthers) the biggest busts early in the season. The combined record of that defenseless group against the run to start the year was 13-39 straight up and 16-36 against the number.

Yes, it is still an age of passing the football, but run defense is an excellent place to start when examining NFL strengths and weaknesses each week. History has not been kind to teams that are not stout against the run in midseason or postseason.

[StarDust Bum]

Trends to Watch - October
October 12, 2015


With the MLB playoffs underway, and the NBA set to start at the end of the month, October is a great month for sports fans alike. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during the month of October.

That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October.

We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer. Enjoy!

HOME TEAMS

Good: Pittsburgh is 31-15 ATS as home favorites this month, but its difficult to back them against Baltimore (10/1) and Arizona (10/18) without Ben Roethlisberger under center.

Keep an eye on (Good): Who knows who the quarterback will be for Cleveland by the time Oct.18th rolls around, but we do know the Browns are 19-10 ATS this month at home and they will be underdogs when Denver arrives.

After a poor opening month, San Diego will have three shots to improve 25-16 ATS record in their building against Cleveland (10/4), Pittsburgh (10/12) and Oakland (10/25).

Keep an eye on (Bad): There is seldom much good to say about Jacksonville and this is yet another example. The Jaguars are 14-22 ATS in north Florida and only Houston will visit on the 18th, having sent the other home game to London.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina makes football bettors a lot of money on the road as evidenced by 24-15 ATS mark. In October, they have division game at Tampa Bay (10/4) and long trip to Seattle two weeks later.

Another squad which has been road warriors in the New York football Giants, who are 28-16 ATS and chances are they will not mind trips to Buffalo (10/4) or Philadelphia on the third Monday of the month.

Bad: Arizona has through the years struggled in Eastern Time zones and overall in the second month of the season they are desultory 13-26 ATS. If Carson Palmer stays healthy, the Cardinals can break away from their past at Detroit (10/11) and at Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Even when San Francisco has been a very good team, October roadies always gave them fits and they are 18-35 ATS. Off two wicked September away beatdowns, just one road contest in New Jersey versus the Giants (10/11).

Waiting for Tampa Bay to playing consistently, well, it is like waiting for a blood moon… it just doesn't happen very often. The Buccaneers are 15-27 ATS as visitors and have only one stop, in Washington on the 25th.

FAVORITES

Good: Note - Cleveland is 11-5 ATS, but cannot forecast this role for them.

Keep an eye on (Good): St. Louis has generally improved in the second month of the season, at least against the oddsmakers and is 20-11 ATS in this role. On the last Sunday of the month, the Browns pay a visit to the nearby Arch, with the Rams seeking to improve record. (Note: San Francisco is 39-23, but do not look here as favorites in October)

Bad: This will be a telling month for Cincinnati after hot start. The Bengals will be shorter home favorites versus Kansas City and Seattle to get things going, but are Halloween scary 9-23 ATS handing points. Trick or Treat?

Keep an eye on (Bad): With the almost Super Bowl champions Seattle off to a sluggish start in 2015, they need to win to build quick momentum. Being favored against Detroit (10/5) and Carolina (10/18) at home and a quick trip top Frisco four days later should help, but can you trust a team with 14-26 ATS record in this role?

Tampa Bay's already a favorite this year at home and failed miserably against Tennessee. With Sunshine State partner Jacksonville visiting on the 11th, will the Bucs be better than 15-26 ATS mark?

UNDERDOGS

Good: The Steelers are sterling 21-8 ATS catching points in Rocktober (think classic rock FM radio), yet as mentioned above, Mike Vick for Big Ben is not a good trade and Pittsburgh will be an underdog in at least three contests.

Keep an eye on (Good): As stated previously, the New York football Giants are excellent on the road, which makes them worth looking at as underdogs as 28-16 ATS.

Bad: The Niners drain bankrolls as dogs at 11-22 ATS and with matchups against the Packers, at Giants, Ravens and Seahawks, backing them might require a visit to ATM.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Maybe Minnesota's improving defense will make them better as pooches at Denver (10/4) and likely Detroit (10/25). The Vikings ship has mostly sunk catching points at 14-26 ATS.

Seattle is 21-32 ATS as underdogs this month and they should catch a small number in Cincy on the 11th.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): At 21-11 ATS, Atlanta pays a visit to the bayou on third Thursday of the month.

Not easy to imagine Chicago makes 21-12 ATS record better in the Motor City on the 18th. Same goes for San Fran when the Seahawks make annual visit on the 22rd. The 49ers are 21-13 ATS.

Pittsburgh has Baltimore on the first day of the month and will need their defense and running game to make 25-14 ATS record better.

Bad: New Orleans has the Dirty Birds in town in the middle of the month and shorter sportsbook figure gives them an opportunity to improve on 12-24 ATS mark.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Possibly Seattle will be such a large division road favorite in the Bay Area, they will not have chance to beat 15-27 ATS record.

[StarDust Bum]

Pitt looks for MNF road win
October 12, 2015


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-2)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: San Diego -3, Total: 46

Two teams trying to get over .500 will wrap up Week 5 on Monday night when the Steelers visit the Chargers.

Pittsburgh (2-0-2 ATS) is well-rested for Monday, as it will take the field 11 days after falling 23-20 in overtime at home to rival Baltimore.

San Diego (1-3 ATS) eked out a 30-27 victory over Cleveland last week, but suffered its third straight ATS defeat.

The Steelers have dominated this series since 1992, going 10-4 (SU and ATS). But the clubs haven't met since Dec. 9, 2012 when the Chargers held a commanding 36:46 time of possession in a 34-24 victory.

There are plenty of reasons for bettors to side with either team here, as the Steelers are 51-21 ATS versus good passing teams (7+ YPA) since 1992 and the Chargers are 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams (61%+ completion pct) over the past two seasons.

But San Diego benefits from a couple of negative Mike Tomlin trends, as he is 8-20 ATS off 2+ consecutive Unders and 15-25 ATS on the road in games played on grass fields as Pittsburgh's head coach.

The good news for one of these teams is that reliable TE Antonio Gates is ready to make his season debut for the Chargers.

Injuries have been a big part of Pittsburgh's season so far with QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee) and All-Pro C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) both out for several more weeks, and the defense has three questionable players in CB Cortez Allen (knee), LB Ryan Shazier (shoulder) and DT Daniel McCullers (knee).

San Diego will be thin at receiver with WR Stevie Johnson (hamstring) doubtful, and WRs Malcom Floyd (concussion) and Jacoby Jones (ankle) both questionable. The team could also be missing some valuable linemen in G Chris Watt (groin), OT King Dunlap (concussion) and G Orlando Franklin (ankle), who are all questionable.

Despite the slew of injuries and suspensions to key players, Pittsburgh's offense has still been able to score 24.0 PPG on 360 total YPG. Veteran QB Mike Vick is only 8-17 ATS as a starter in the past three seasons, and 0-4 ATS all-time versus San Diego. This season, Vick has completed 75% of his passes (24-of-32), but has only 162 yards (5.1 YPC), 1 TD and 0 INT. He has also been sacked six times and has run for just 28 yards on 14 carries.

But this offense still relies heavily on its two superstars, RB Le'Veon Bell (191 rush yds, 91 rec yds, 2 TD in 2 games) and WR Antonio Brown (34 rec, 478 yds, 2 TD).

On defense, Pittsburgh has given up way too many yards (360 YPG), but opponents have scored only 18.7 PPG. The run-stop unit has been decent with allowing 113 YPG on 4.0 YPC, but the team has surrendered 233 passing YPG (6.6 YPA) on a 70% completion rate.

More turnovers need to be forced as well, as the Steelers have only four takeaways so far this season. The good news for them is that the Chargers have multiple giveaways in three of four contests.

San Diego's offense has only 24.0 PPG this season, but has gained a robust 411 YPG on 6.5 yards per play. Those numbers are much greater in two home games where the team has pumped out 31.5 PPG on 461 total YPG.

Veteran QB Philip Rivers (2-2 record, 215 passing YPG, 8 TD, 3 INT all-time vs. Pittsburgh) is off to a flying start to the 2015 campaign. He has completed a hefty 71% of his passes for 1,248 yards (8.9 YPA), 8 TD and 4 INT over four games. He has been able to do this without TE Antonio Gates, who has 99 TD in his career catching passes from Rivers. T

he presence of Gates could free up more space for top WR Keenan Allen who leads the team with 387 receiving yards and 3 TD. The Chargers have been decent on the ground with at least 90 yards in every game, averaging 102 YPG on 3.9 YPC.

Rookie RB Melvin Gordon is coming off his worst performance of the season (12 carries for 38 yards, 3.2 YPC) and has yet to find the end zone in 2015. But he is still averaging a solid 4.1 YPC this year with four 20-yard runs so far. Defensively San Diego is allowing 27.5 PPG on 352 YPG and 6.3 yards per play.

There hasn't been one big area of strength though, as the unit has surrendered 127 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.9 YPC, plus another 225 passing YPG on 7.4 YPA and 66% completions. The Chargers have been able to force at least one turnover in every game, totaling six for the season.