The Bum's National Football League Week # 5 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5


Thursday's game
Colts (2-2) @ Texans (1-3)-- Luck is expected back here; Colts were outgained at home by 110 yards by Jaguars LW, but Jax missed three FG tries late. Indy won last five games vs , Houston, with three of last four by 7 or less points; home side won ten of last 13 games in series- Colts won 27-24/33-28 in last two visits here. Indy is 0-2 as road favorite this year after being 8-3-1 in that role last two years- three of its four games stayed under the total. Houston was outscored 74-19 in first half of first four games; they've got QB dilemma in that neither guy seems good enough. Texans trailed 28-nil at half last week, scored couple of garbage time TDs; they're 6-12 vs spread in last 18 home games, 2-5 as a home dog.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Colts at Texans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Andrew Luck is planning to play and start Thursday night against the Texans, but will he?

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Pick, 44.5)

The Indianapolis Colts are hoping Andrew Luck will be back under center when they visit the struggling Houston Texans on Thursday night in an AFC South matchup. Luck missed the first game of his career in last week's 16-13 overtime win over Jacksonville due an injured right shoulder, but Colts coach Chuck Pagano said his quarterback is "trending in the right direction."

Luck told reporters he is not giving any "credence" to a report that he is dealing with a subluxation of his throwing shoulder and said he is preparing to start against Houston. "I don’t think I’m necessarily where I would want to be today in a perfect, perfect world. But better every day," Luck said. The Texans are having quarterback issues of their own, but coach Bill O'Brien said he is sticking with Ryan Mallett, who replaced Brian Hoyer after Week 1. Indianapolis has won five in a row over the Texans and 15 straight against division opponents.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The game has opened at a Pick, with Andrew Luck's status still up in the air. The total has opened at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Colts - QB A. Luck (probable Thursday, shoulder), QB M. Hasselbeck (probable Thursday, illness), CB G. Toler (probable Thursday, neck), TE D. Allen (probable Thursday, ankle), RB F. Gore (probable Thursday, foot), CB V. Davis (probable Thursday, foot), RB T. Varga (questionable Thursday, concussion), S M. Adams (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Freeman (questionable Thursday, groin), LB B. Werner (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE H. Anderson (questionable Thursday, foot), DE K. Langford (questionable Thursday, back).

Texans - RB A. Foster (probable Thursday, groin), LB B. Cushing (probable Thursday, foot), RB C. Polk (probable Thursday, knee), T D. Brown (probable Thursday, hand), S E. Pleasant (probable Thursday, thigh), LB J. Clowney (probable Thursday, knee), CB J. Joseph (probable Thursday, hip), S L. Ballentine (questionable Thursday, knee), RB J. Grimes (questionable Thursday, knee), LB J. Dent (questionable Thursday, hamstring), S Q. Demps (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR C. Shorts (questionable Thursday, shoulder), LB W. Mercilus (questionable Thursday, thigh), WR N. Washington (doubtful Thursday, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-1) - Texans (+3) + home field (-3) = Texans +1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "After watching the Colts barely escape at home against Jacksonville, it?s very clear. Without Andrew Luck in the lineup, Indy is no better than the Jaguars. And Despite an ongoing quarterback controversy, a struggling offensive line and no running game to speak of, the Texans continue to play at the fastest pace in the NFL on offense."

ABOUT THE COLTS (2-2): Wide receiver Andre Johnson was a dominant force during a 12-year tenure with the Texans, racking up 1,012 career receptions, but he has labored in his first season with Indianapolis and does not have a catch in either of his past two games. Running back Frank Gore is also off to a slow start with the Colts, who survived three missed field goals by the Jaguars before prevailing last week behind 40-year-old quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Indianapolis' defense has been vulnerable through the air, allowing 268 yards passing per game while registering only five sacks.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (1-3): Mallett was benched in favor of Hoyer during last week's 48-21 loss at Atlanta after completing 12-of-27 passes for a season-low 150 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. O'Brien also is sticking with Mallett despite the fact that he owns a completion percentage of 51.8 percent. Arian Foster made his season debut after returning from groin surgery, but failed to provide a lift to the ground game with only 10 yards rushing on eight carries. Third-year wideout DeAndre Hopkins has 31 catches and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
* Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is split right down the middle for this game at this point.

[StarDust Bum]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

8:25 PM EDT

301 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS PK 43.5 / 42 / 40.5 41 +210
302 HOUSTON TEXANS 45 -5 -15 / -5.5 -05 / -5.5 -5.5 -15 -260

IND-QB-Matt Hasselbeck-Probable | IND-QB-Andrew Luck-Doubtful | HOU-QB-Ryan Mallett-Probable | TV: CBS, NFL, DTV: 212 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, SOUTHEAST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 78, RH 73% HEAT INDEX 81 (NRG STADIUM ROOF MAY CLOSE IN HOT WEATHER)

-------------------------------

NFL Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:25 PM Indianapolis +5 828 47.83% Houston -5 903 52.17% View View

TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

8:25 PM Indianapolis 41 658 47.00% Houston 41 742 53.00% View View

------------------------------


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 8:25 PM ET Houston -5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Houston - Under 41 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[Udog]

Good luck tonight, Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/08/15 )

THURSDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/08/15 )


*****......................... 0 - 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS.............0- 1 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.................0 - 1 - 0
BLOW OUT....................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 11 - 8 - 2
double play...................................24 - 15 - 1
triple play......................................11 - 10 - 1
blow out........................................4 - 1
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 22 - 11 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................1 - 1
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 3 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 4 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 1
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO SUNDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/11/15

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5


Sunday's games

Jaguars (1-3) @ Buccaneers (1-3)--

Third straight road game for Jax, historically 30% or so play in NFL; Jags outgained Luck-less Colts by 110 yards, but couldn't make FG at end lost in OT- they're 8-9-1 as road dogs under Bradley, 3-7-1 in non-division games, 6-10 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Winston threw pick-6 in first quarter of both games at home; Bucs allowed 79 points in losing both home games- they failed to cover four in a row as home favorites. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-1 vs spread. AFC South underdogs are 2-4. Jags won last four series games, three by 7 or less points; home side won four of last five in series. Teams split a pair of one-point decisions in last two here.

Bills (2-2) @ Titans (1-2)--

Buffalo's last playoff game was Music City Miracle loss here in '99. Tennessee won last five series games, four by six or less points; Bills lost last four visits to Nashville, with last win in '94. Titans lost four of last five post-bye games; they are 2-12 SU off a loss and since '12, they're 4-10-1 as home underdogs- all three of their games went over. Buffalo won its only road game 41-14 at Miami; they allowed 14 points in both wins, 40-24 in losses, both to QBs with multiple Super Bowl wins. Since '07, Bills are 6-3 as road favorites. AFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread out of conference. Titans are in odd stretch in that Tennessee doesn't play a road game in October (4 home and the bye).

Browns (1-3) @ Ravens (1-3)--

Baltimore got first win LW in Pittsburgh, had three extra days to prep for this, vs Cleveland team they've beaten 13 of last 14 times. Browns lost last seven visits here, with last five all by 10 or less points. Over last 8+ years, Ravens are 7-14-1 as home favorite in divisional games; Browns are 6-2-1 in last nine games as a dog in divisional tilts- they're 7-4-1 as divisional road dog since '11. Cleveland lost both games on road, allowing 30-31 points; they lost on last play in San Diego last week after jumping offside on missed FG, giving Chargers second chance to win. All four Browns games went over total. All four Baltimore games this season were decided by six or less points.

Redskins (2-2) @ Falcons (4-0)--

Unbeaten Atlanta has 10 TDs on 21 drives in last two games; they haven't turned ball over since Week 1. Falcon OC Shanahan worked for his dad with Redskins as recently as two years ago, when Washington lost here 27-26. Atlanta is 4-6 as home favorite last 2+ years, 2-5 in non-divison games. Falcons won last four series games, scoring 26.5 ppg. Skins are 4-11 as road dogs the last 2+ years, 2-5 in non-division games; they are 29-62 on 3rd down this year; Cousins has moved chains well. Under is 3-1 in Washington games this year; over is 14-10-1 in its road games last 3+ years. Redskins were outscored in second half in all four games. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 6-1 vs spread so far this season.

Bears (1-3) @ Chiefs (1-3)--

KC allowed 35 ppg in losing last three games; they gave up 9.0/13.4 ypa in last two games. Chiefs are 5-3 in last eight games as a home favorite; they were 5-19-1 in that role from '07-'13. Bears got first win LW, with Cutler returning from injury- they converted 10-17 on third down (5 of 25 in previous two games). Chicago was outscored 46-9 in second half of last three games; their last second half TD was in Week 1. Bears are 13-24-2 as road dogs since '08; over is 18-7 in their last 25 road games. Reid was 4-0 vs Fox last two years when Fox was in Denver; Chiefs are 6-5 in series, 3-2 here; this is Bears' first visit to Arrowhead since '03. All four KC games this year went over total.

Saints (1-3) @ Eagles (1-3)--

Iggles rallied from down 13-0 at half to lead in 4th quarter at Washington last week, but Cousins marched Skins to winning TD in last 0:30 to drop Philly to 1-3 and Bradford's career record to 19-33-1. Eagles are 14-20-1 as home favorites since '10. Saints won in 0:13 of OT vs Dallas, fastest OT in regular season history; they've won five of last six games vs Philly, scoring 34 ppg in winning last three; NO won 26-24 in last visit here, a '13 playoff game. Saints' only win was vs backup QB Weeden (5-17 as an NFL starter); Eagles were +3 in turnovers in only win- they didn't score in second half of that game or first half last week. Since 2009, New Orleans is 6-9-1 as a road underdog.

Rams (2-2) @ Packers (4-0)--

Green Bay won/covered all four games, winning all four by 8+ points; they're 8-1-1 in last ten games as home favorite, 7-6-1 in last 14 non-divisional games. Emergence of rookie RB Gurley should give Rams balance on offense, but loss of LB Ogletree is big loss to talented defense. St Louis is 13-11 as road underdog with Fisher. Green Bay won last four series games, all by 10+ points, scoring 30.8 ppg; St Louis lost three of last four visits here, losing by 10-28-21 points. Rams beat Seattle/Arizona by total of five points, looked pathetic in other two games, getting inside opponents' 20 once in the two games. St Louis covered one of last four pre-bye games. Over is 27-15 in Green Bay's last 42 home games.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Bengals (4-0)--

Unbeaten Cincy has 16 TDs on 40 drives and averaged 10.9/13.4 ypa last two games, huge numbers that'll be tested by Seattle defense that hasn't allowed offensive TD in two games since Chancellor returned. Hawks survived tough tilt late Monday night; they're 0-2 on road- since '11, they're 8-5-3 as road dogs. Last couple of years, Bengals are 10-3-1 as home favorites. Seattle is 3-2 in last five series games; they are 5-3 in last eight visits here, but last one was in '03. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-2; NFC West underdogs are 1-4. Over is 12-6 in Bengal home games last 2+ years; three of four Bengal games went over the total; last three Seahawk games stayed under.

Cardinals (3-1) @ Lions (0-4)--

Short week for Detroit after last-minute loss Monday nite in Seattle; Lions are only NFL team with less than 20 rushing attempts in every game this year- they're 1-4-1 as home dogs since 2010, losing 24-12 to Denver in only home game so far. Redbirds are 4-2 in last six games as road favorite; they crushed Bears in only game on road, running back for TD and scoring defensive TD. Arizona is 12-5 vs spread in last 17 road games, 20-5-1 in last 26 non-division games, 7-4-1 in games following an upset loss. Cardinals won last six series games; five of those six were in desert; they lost three of last four visits here, winning last viist in '09. Arians vs Caldwell is huge coaching mismatch.

Patriots (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-2)--

Since 2009, Patriots are 11-3 vs teams playing backup QB due to injury; they Weeden is now 5-18 as NFL starter (0-3 for Dallas) but he did lead tying TD drive last week and never got back on field as Saints scored last ten points of game; Cowboys are 4-18 on 3rd down last two games, after going 10-23 in first two; they also haven't had takeaway in three of four games so far. New England is just 3-7 as a home favorite last 2+ years, 1-3 vs spread in last four post-bye games- they won last four series games with Dallas; three of those four were in Foxboro; Patriots lost four of last five visits here, but won 48-27 in last visit here, in '07. Since '08, Dallas is 6-2 as a home underdog.

Broncos (4-0) @ Raiders (2-2)--

Del Rio was Broncos' DC last few years; his Raiders are improved at 2-2 after tough loss in Chicago last week- they're 10-15 as home dogs since '10. Oakland averaged 7.5/9.8 ypa in their two wins, 4.1/4.9 in two losses. Broncos are yet to allow more than 5.9 ypa. Raider foes converted 18-33 on third down last two weeks; three of their four games went over total. Denver won last seven series games, all by 13+ points; they won last four visits here by average score of 35-16. Del Rio came to Oakland from being DC in Denver; four of nine TDs Broncos scored vs Oakland LY came on drives of less than 50 yards. Since 2011, Broncos are 15-8 against the spread as a road favorite.

49ers (1-3) @ Giants (2-2)--

TE Fells is in hospital with MRSA; not sure how much of a distraction this is for Giant club that won last two games by 11-14 points after blowing a double digit 4th quarter lead in each of first two games. 49ers were outscored 90-25 in two road losses, giving up 13.7/9.3 ypa at Pitt/Arizona. Niners were outscored 67-13 in first half of last three games; only offensive TD they scored last two weeks came on drive of 19 yards. Big Blue won five of last seven series games, but lost three of last five played here; 49ers ran for 148 yards in 16-10 win here (-3.5) LY. Last 2+ years, Giants are 8-5 as home favorites. Niners are 2-5-1 in last eight games as a road underdog, but they're 6-2-1 in last nine games as a non-divisional road dog.

Monday's game

Steelers (2-2) @ Chargers (2-2)- Expect Pitt to try and run ball; Chargers allowed 176/163 rushing yards in two losses, 69/100 in wins. Not convinced Vick isn't washed up; he was 19-26/96 passing LW, but that was on short week of prep; they have three extra days to prep here after OT loss to Baltimore LW. San Diego allowed 24+ points in all four games; they beat Browns on last second FG, rallied from down 21-3 to beat Lions. Pitt is 20-11 vs spread in last 31 games as an underdog; they're 8-2 in last ten games vs San Diego, with last visit in '12. Pitt hasn't been here since 2006. Since '11, Bolts are 9-12 as home faves; they're 9-13 vs spread in last 22 games where spread was 3 or less points; Steelers are 14-7 in last 21 such games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football betting preview: 49ers at Giants
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Odell Beckham Jr. has 24 catches for 307 yards and two touchdowns so far this season. He caught six balls for 93 yards versus the Niners last season.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (-6.5, 43)

The New York Giants answered a pair of disheartening losses to open the season with two convincing victories to move into a three-way tie atop the NFC East. The Giants look to continue their good fortune and hand the struggling San Francisco 49ers their fourth consecutive loss on Sunday night when the teams meet at MetLife Stadium.

Eli Manning has tossed seven touchdown passes in his last three weeks, including three scoring strikes in a 24-10 victory over Buffalo last Sunday. While Manning has won five of his seven career contests with San Francisco, he was intercepted five times in the 49ers' 16-10 victory on Nov. 16. Kaepernick threw a touchdown pass in that game, but has failed to do so for the third time in four contests this season in Sunday's 17-3 setback to Green Bay. "I want a confident man; just full-bore ahead at that position," San Francisco coach Jim Tomsula told reporters of his commitment to Kaepnerick. "I believe it's critical and I believe in Colin Kaepernick."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Giants as 7-point home faves but that's been moved to -6.5. The total remains at 43.

INJURY REPORT:

49ers

G Alex Boone (Probable, ankle), T Joe Staley (Probable, leg), TE Vernon Davis (Out, knee), CB Shareece Wright (Questionable, undisclosed), WR Quinton Patton (Questionable, concussion), LB Ahmad Brooks (Out, personal), WR Jerome Simpson (Elig Week 7, suspension), WR Dres Anderson (I-R, knee), G Daniel Kilgore (I-R, ankle), WR DeAndre Smelter (I-R, knee).

Giants

DE George Selvie (Questionable, calf), CB Jayron Hosley (Questionable, concussion), CB Trumaine McBride (Questionable, groin), DT Markus Kuhn (Questionable, knee), TE Jerome Cunningham (Questionable, knee), WR Odell Beckham (Questionable, knee), DE Robert Ayers (Doubtful, hamstring), LB Devon Kennard (Doubtful, hamstring), WR Victor Cruz (Out, calf), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Out indefinitely, finger), TE Daniel Fells (I-R, ankle), S Nat Berhle (I-R, calf), C Brett Jones (I-R, knee), S Bennett Jackson (I-R, knee), S Mykkele Thompson (I-R, Achilles), T Will Beatty (I-R, pectoral).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at four miles per hour.

POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (+5.0) + Giants (-0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -8.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Offensive coordinator Geep Chryst hasn?t been an NFL OC since the 2000 season. QB coach Steve Logan has never been an NFL QB coach before. The inexperience shows! The G-men continue to cash winning bets in one role, year after year ? as road underdogs. They?re 2-0 ATS as road dogs this year and 59-38 ATS on the road in the Coughlin era."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Not as popular of a game as we had hoped thus far but more action will come in as Sunday gets going. We are at 60 percent on the Giants and that should grow as the general betting community has completely lost faith in San Francisco. I anticipate this will get back to the opener of -7."

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Carlos Hyde has been limited to just 114 rushing yards during the team's three-game skid after running for 168 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-3 season-opening victory over Minnesota. Kaepernick's troubles in the last two contests have obviously taken a toll on wideouts Anquan Boldin (five receptions, 28 yards) and Torrey Smith (two catches, 54 yards). Boldin, however, enjoyed a strong performance with five receptions for 53 yards in his last meeting with New York.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): While Odell Beckham Jr. received plenty of fanfare in the offseason, Rueben Randle has snared a touchdown reception in each of his last two games. Randle also enjoyed a dominant effort in his last meeting with San Francisco, reeling in a team-high seven catches for 112 yards while Beckham added six for 93. Rashad Jennings, who has mustered just 3.2 yards per carry this season, showed he still has plenty left in the tank after he broke three tackles en route to a 51-yard touchdown reception last week versus the Bills.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* 49ers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Giants last eight games in Week 5.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-nine percent of users are backing the Giants.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 11


NFL Injury Report for Sunday games

ARIZONA CARDINALS at DETROIT LIONS

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--QUESTIONABLE: TE Darren Fells (hip), WR J.J. Nelson (shoulder)

--PROBABLE: CB Justin Bethel (foot), S Chris Clemons (hamstring), RB Andre Ellington (knee), LB Alani Fua (hamstring), S Rashad Johnson (hip), DT Frostee Rucker (thigh), LB LaMarr Woodley (thigh)

DETROIT LIONS

--OUT: RB Joique Bell (ankle), TE Eric Ebron (knee), DT Haloti Ngata (calf)

--QUESTIONABLE: S James Ihedigbo (quadriceps), G Larry Warford (ankle)

--PROBABLE: DE Ezekiel Ansah (shoulder), LB DeAndre Levy (hip), LB Travis Lewis (ankle), P Sam Martin (left knee), CB Rashean Mathis (calf), WR Lance Moore (ankle), TE Brandon Pettigrew (hamstring), T Corey Robinson (ankle), CB Darius Slay (quadriceps)


BUFFALO BILLS at TENNESSEE TITANS

BUFFALO BILLS

--OUT: RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring), S Bacarri Rambo (quadriceps), RB Karlos Williams (concussion)

--QUESTIONABLE: WR Sammy Watkins (calf)

--PROBABLE: TE Charles Clay (calf), T Cordy Glenn (ankle), WR Marquise Goodwin (ribs), CB Corey Graham (shoulder), WR Percy Harvin (hip), WR Chris Hogan (hamstring), G John Miller (groin), S Aaron Williams (neck), DT Kyle Williams (calf)

TENNESSEE TITANS

--DOUBTFUL: DT Sammie Lee Hill (knee)

--QUESTIONABLE: CB Cody Riggs (knee), G Chance Warmack (knee)

--PROBABLE: CB Jason McCourty (groin), LB Wesley Woodyard (not injury related)


CHICAGO BEARS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

CHICAGO BEARS

--OUT: T Jermon Bushrod (concussion, shoulder)

--DOUBTFUL: S Antrel Rolle (ankle)

--QUESTIONABLE: CB Alan Ball (groin), QB Jimmy Clausen (back), QB Jay Cutler (hamstring), T Tayo Fabuluje (ankle), WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring), T Kyle Long (back, ankle), LB Shea McClellin (elbow), CB Sherrick McManis (hamstring), LB Pernell McPhee (shoulder), G Patrick Omameh (ankle), DT Jay Ratliff (ankle), WR Eddie Royal (ankle), DE Will Sutton (elbow)

--PROBABLE: P Pat O'Donnell (right knee)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--OUT: LB Joshua Mauga (groin, Achilles)

--QUESTIONABLE: WR Albert Wilson (shoulder)

--PROBABLE: TE Travis Kelce (groin, thumb), TE James O'Shaughnessy (hand)


CLEVELAND BROWNS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--OUT: S Tashaun Gipson (ankle), LB Craig Robertson (ankle)

--DOUBTFUL: RB Shaun Draughn (back)

--QUESTIONABLE: DE Desmond Bryant (shoulder), LB Karlos Dansby (ankle), CB Joe Haden (finger, ribs), WR Brian Hartline (thigh, ribs), LB Scott Solomon (ankle), RB Robert Turbin (ankle)

--PROBABLE: CB Johnson Bademosi (elbow), RB Duke Johnson (ankle), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow), T Mitchell Schwartz (thumb), S Donte Whitner (illness), CB K'Waun Williams (concussion)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--OUT: DE Chris Canty (calf), TE Crockett Gillmore (calf), WR Breshad Perriman (knee)

--DOUBTFUL: WR Steve Smith (back)

--PROBABLE: LB Albert McClellan (abdomen), T Eugene Monroe (concussion), LB Daryl Smith (not injury related), RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (foot), G Marshal Yanda (ankle)


DENVER BRONCOS at OAKLAND RAIDERS

DENVER BRONCOS

--OUT: WR Cody Latimer (groin), T Ty Sambrailo (shoulder)

--QUESTIONABLE: WR Bennie Fowler (hamstring), G Evan Mathis (hamstring)

--PROBABLE: CB Omar Bolden (foot), TE James Casey (knee), TE Owen Daniels (not injury related), T Ryan Harris (knee), QB Peyton Manning (not injury related), WR Demaryius Thomas (neck), G Louis Vasquez (knee), LB DeMarcus Ware (not injury related)

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--OUT: DT Denico Autry (concussion), CB T.J. Carrie (chest), DT Justin Ellis (ankle), RB Taiwan Jones (foot)

--QUESTIONABLE: S Taylor Mays (ankle)

--PROBABLE: WR Michael Crabtree (ankle), LB Ben Heeney (hamstring), DE Benson Mayowa (knee), CB Keith McGill (foot), RB Latavius Murray (shoulder), DE Justin Tuck (knee), DE C.J. Wilson (calf), S Charles Woodson (shoulder)


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--OUT: WR Marqise Lee (hamstring), LB John Lotulelei (concussion), RB Denard Robinson (knee)

--DOUBTFUL: S James Sample (shoulder)

--QUESTIONABLE: DT Sen'Derrick Marks (knee), LB Paul Posluszny (ankle), TE Julius Thomas (hand)

--PROBABLE: S Sergio Brown (calf), DE Chris Clemons (knee), CB Aaron Colvin (shoulder), CB Davon House (illness), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, thigh), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--DOUBTFUL: CB Johnthan Banks (knee), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder), WR Russell Shepard (hamstring), C Evan Smith (ankle)

--QUESTIONABLE: G Logan Mankins (groin), DT Gerald McCoy (shoulder), TE Luke Stocker (hip)

--PROBABLE: S Major Wright (abdomen)


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at DALLAS COWBOYS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--QUESTIONABLE: CB Bradley Fletcher (hamstring), DE Trey Flowers (knee, shoulder)

--PROBABLE: CB Tarell Brown (foot), C Ryan Wendell (illness)

DALLAS COWBOYS

--OUT: WR Dez Bryant (foot), WR Brice Butler (hamstring), DE Randy Gregory (ankle)

--QUESTIONABLE: TE James Hanna (ankle)

--PROBABLE: LB Andrew Gachkar (foot), LB Sean Lee (concussion), DE Ryan Russell (groin)


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--OUT: T Terron Armstead (knee), P Thomas Morstead (right quadriceps)

--QUESTIONABLE: G Jahri Evans (knee), DE Bobby Richardson (hip)

--PROBABLE: S Jairus Byrd (knee), WR Marques Colston (not injury related), WR Brandin Cooks (ankle), G Tim Lelito (back), CB Keenan Lewis (hip), DT Kevin Williams (not injury related)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--OUT: LB Kiko Alonso (knee), DE Brandon Bair (groin), LB Mychal Kendricks (hamstring)

--QUESTIONABLE: T Jason Peters (quadriceps)

--PROBABLE: G Allen Barbre (groin), DE Taylor Hart (shoulder), T Lane Johnson (knee), S Chris Maragos (quadriceps), CB Byron Maxwell (quadriceps), DE Cedric Thornton (hand)


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--OUT: CB Marcus Burley (hand), RB Marshawn Lynch (hamstring), CB Tharold Simon (toe)

--DOUBTFUL: DE Demarcus Dobbs (shoulder), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (hamstring), CB Tye Smith (hip)

--QUESTIONABLE: RB Fred Jackson (ankle)

--PROBABLE: WR Ricardo Lockette (shortness of breath), DT Brandon Mebane (groin), S Steven Terrell (hip)

CINCINNATI BENGALS

--QUESTIONABLE: DE Wallace Gilberry (calf), S George Iloka (ankle)

--PROBABLE: RB Jeremy Hill (knee), CB Adam Jones (groin), S Reggie Nelson (hamstring)


ST. LOUIS RAMS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--OUT: LB Alec Ogletree (ankle)

--DOUBTFUL: S Maurice Alexander (groin)

--QUESTIONABLE: DE Eugene Sims (knee)

--PROBABLE: WR Kenny Britt (knee), DE Robert Quinn (not injury related), RB Chase Reynolds (knee)

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--OUT: S Sean Richardson (neck)

--DOUBTFUL: LB Jake Ryan (hamstring)

--QUESTIONABLE: WR Davante Adams (ankle), T Bryan Bulaga (knee), S Morgan Burnett (calf), CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring)


WASHINGTON REDSKINS at ATLANTA FALCONS

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--OUT: CB Chris Culliver (knee), CB DeAngelo Hall (toe), WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (concussion, knee, ankle)

--QUESTIONABLE: LB Perry Riley (calf)

--PROBABLE: WR Pierre Garcon (knee), DE Kedric Golston (hand), LB Ryan Kerrigan (hip), C Josh LeRibeus (calf), C Kory Lichtensteiger (finger), G Spencer Long (ankle), LB Trent Murphy (hip)

ATLANTA FALCONS

--OUT: LB Justin Durant (elbow)

--QUESTIONABLE: WR Julio Jones (toe, hamstring)

--PROBABLE: S Ricardo Allen (knee), RB Tevin Coleman (ribs), WR Leonard Hankerson (thumb), LB Brooks Reed (groin), TE Jacob Tamme (concussion), WR Roddy White (not injury related)


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at NEW YORK GIANTS on Sunday night

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--OUT: TE Vernon Davis (knee)

--DOUBTFUL: LB Ahmad Brooks (not injury related, shoulder)

--QUESTIONABLE: WR Quinton Patton (concussion), T Joe Staley (knee)

--PROBABLE: G Alex Boone (shoulder, ankle), LB NaVorro Bowman (not injury related), S L.J. McCray (knee), TE Vance McDonald (chest)

NEW YORK GIANTS

--OUT: DE Robert Ayers (hamstring), WR Victor Cruz (calf), LB Devon Kennard (hamstring), DE George Selvie (calf)

--QUESTIONABLE: LB Jonathan Casillas (calf), CB Jayron Hosley (concussion), CB Trumaine McBride (groin)

--PROBABLE: TE Jerome Cunningham (knee), T Ereck Flowers (ankle), DT Markus Kuhn (knee)




Three teams left with unblemished ATS records

The Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers are the last teams standing in the NFL with perfect 4-0 records against the spread.

Each team is still 4-0 straight up and each will be playing at home in Week 5 of the NFL schedule.

The Bengals host the Seattle Seahawks as 3-point home favorites, while the Washington Redskins visit the Atlanta Falcons (-7) and the Green Bay Packers welcome the St. Louis Rams as 10-point faves at Lambeau.


Seahawks QB Wilson at his best versus AFC

It hasn't been the best starts for the Seattle Seahawks (2-2 straight up) or their backers (1-3 against the spread) but maybe a meeting with an AFC opponent will cure the early season woes. If history is any indication, quarterback Russell Wilson will be bringing his A game.

Wilson has shredded AFC opponents for 24 touchdowns versus only five interceptions in 14 games (including two Super Bowls).

In those 14 games versus the other conference, the Seahawks are 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS.

The Seahawks are currently tabbed as 3-point road dogs for their trip to Cincy.


Jaguars own Bucs in rare in-state matchup

The Jacksonville Jaguars will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon and while these two Florida teams don't meet frequently, the Jaguars have had the edge.

The Jags head into Sunday's meeting winners of four-straight versus the Bucs and lead the all-time series 4-1. Jacksonville has covered the spread in four of those five meetings and in three straight versus Tampa.

This time around, the Jags are pegged as 2.5-point road dogs after opening +3. The Jags have been dogs in each of the last three meetings have have won outright.


Will Fox's success versus Chiefs carry over to Bears?

The Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs have not met since the 2011 season and the Bears haven't visited Arrowhead since 2003, but new head coach John Fox is very familiar with the team from his days with the Denver Broncos.

Fox has been a head coach since the 2002 season and had spent the previous four in the AFC West with the Broncos. He's got a career 9-1 record straight up versus the Chiefs and his teams are 7-3 against the spread in those games.

His Bears venture to Kansas City and are currently pegged as 10-point road dogs for the matchup.

Seem like a lot of points for the Chiefs? That's because it is. Kansas City has been a double-digit favorite just once in the last eight-plus seasons. That was as an 11-point home favorite versus the Oakland Raiders in Week 15 last season. The Chiefs triumphed 31-13.


Chargers' Johnson (hamstring) to miss MNF

San Diego Chargers wide receiver Stevie Johnson has been ruled out of Monday Night's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers because of a hamstring injury.

Johnson, who is San Diego's second-leading receiver with 18 catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns, suffered the injury during the third quarter of last week's 30-27 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

The Chargers, though, get Antonio Gates back after the tight end served his four-game suspension for PEDs.

Also, wide receiver Malcom Floyd practiced in full Thursday after suffering a concussion versus Cleveland. It appears Floyd will play Monday as long as he is cleared by an independent neurologist.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 5

October 10, 2015


Scoreboard operators were given a bit of a break in Week 4 as only four of the 30 teams in action managed to score 30 or more points. Games with those teams all went ‘over’ the number but outside of those results, it was a week for ‘under’ bettors. All three of the primetime games went to the low-scoring side which helped the ‘under’ produced a 10-5 weekend. After four weeks, bettors have seen totals produce a stalemate (31-31-1) through 63 games.

NFC vs. AFC

The first month is in the books and I always try to find angles for the current season. Sometime those streaks get extended and more often than not, they balance out.

Currently, the ‘under’ has gone 11-5 (69%) in non-conference games which is complete 180 from two seasons ago when betting the ‘over’ in AFC-NFC matchups was nearly automatic.

We only have three games this week but I dug up some notes on the teams involved.

Seattle at Cincinnati:

The Seahawks have gone 11-3 to the ‘over’ since Russel Wilson arrived in 14 games versus the AFC, the two extra matchups taking place in Super Bowls which were ‘over’ winners. In the three games that went ‘under’ the number, Seattle did its part by scoring 26, 20, 28 points.

Chicago at Kansas City:

The Chiefs lost to the Packers 38-28 in Week 3 which was an easy ‘over’ winner. Prior to this result, the Chiefs were 6-2 to the ‘under’ in their last eight vs. the NFC and they’ve only allowed 12.5 PPG in the four home games.

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay:

When it comes to non-conference angles, Jacksonville has been a great ‘over’ bet. The ‘over’ has gone 9-1 the last 10 and 13-2 the last 15 matchups against NFC teams. It should also be noted that the Jags are 3-17 their last 20 versus the NFC, but and it’s a Big But…Jacksonville did wallop Tampa Bay 41-15 in the 2011 season.

Rest or Rust

For the next eight weeks of the season, we’ll have at least four teams on bye. In Week 5, the Dolphins, Jets, Viking and Panthers will be on the sidelines. In Week 3, one of my stronger leans was on the ‘over’ in Titans-Colts game and one of the reasons I liked the game is because Tennessee had a tendency of giving up a ton of points before their week of rest. Fortunately, that trend happened again as Indy rallied to put up 35 against the Titans.

For Week 5, New England and Tennessee return to the gridiron with rest.

New England:

The Patriots head to Dallas on Sunday and this game has the highest total (50 on the board. New England has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 the last three seasons after the bye behind an offense averaging 33 points per game during this stretch. Those games took place in November and we note that because the last two early byes for the Patriots played in October went ‘under’ and the Pats only averaged 20 PPG.

Tennessee:

The Titans have gone 2-1 to the ‘under’ the last three seasons off a bye while averaging 18 PPG during this span. Make a note that all three games were on the road and Tennessee hosts Buffalo on Sunday. The total is 42 which is tied for the lowest number in Week 5.

Pre-Bye Angles – Four Teams on bye in Week 6


-- The Raiders are 3-1 to the ‘under’ last four before the bye and they can’t score…just 27 points scored in this span.

-- The Cowboys are 6-1 to the ‘over’ the last seven before the bye but that was with a healthy squad on offense.

-- The Rams on a 3-0 run to the ‘over’ before the bye and two of those results came at home, which were losses. The lone road game took place at Indianapolis in the 2013 season and St. Louis pulled off a 38-8 upset as a 9-point road ‘dog. The Rams head to Green Bay this weekend and the odds-situation are very similar.

-- The Buccaneers have been atrocious before the bye, going 0-6 both SU and ATS the last six years, which includes last year’s embarrassing setback to Baltimore, 48-17. The total has gone 3-3 during this span and Tampa has only averaged 14.5 PPG during this stretch.

Over-Easy

After four weeks of action, we have three teams that have seen the ‘over’ cash in all four of their games and when you look at the numbers, you shouldn’t be surprised.

Arizona:

The Cardinals are averaging 37 PPG this season, compared to 19.2 PPG. The defense is very solid and it’s helped the ‘over’ cause with 30 points (4 TDs, 1 Safety) this season. Arizona heads to Detroit this Sunday and these teams have played the last two seasons, both games in Arizona. The ‘under’ cashed last November easily because QB Carson Palmer wasn’t injured but the ‘over’ connected in 2013 when he suited up.

Cleveland:

The Browns continue to be the toughest total team to figure out but they’ve been doing just enough to go ‘over’ their numbers. The offense is only averaging 21.2 PPG but the defense is allowing 25.5 PPG and that’s never a good thing for ‘under’ tickets. In Week 5, they travel to Baltimore and they’ve averaged 11.5 PPG the last four visits to “The Charm City” and that’s produced four easy ‘under’ tickets.

Kansas City:

The Chiefs are the best combination for ‘over’ bettors this season. The offense (25 PPG) has improved and has moved the ball on everybody this season. Kicking seven field goals last week isn’t a great sign for execution but seven scores is a lot in the NFL and that effort can’t be ignored. Defensively, they’re surrendering 31.2 PPG and that’s the worst in the league. Chicago visits Arrowhead this weekend and the total is hovering around 45 points.

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ dominate the primetime games last season with a 33-17 (66%) mark, bettors have seen the pendulum swing back in 2015. It’s still early but the ‘under’ has gone 9-5 through the first 14 games and outside of the Chiefs-Packers result, we haven’t had many shootouts. Even this past Thursday’s game between the Colts and Texans was helped with a Hail Mary TD before halftime. For those who had the ‘under’ in that game, accept our apologies.

San Francisco at N.Y. Giants: Not a lot of data to support a lean either way in this matchup but San Francisco has allowed 17 PPG at home and 45 PPG on the road. Do you follow that trend and expect the Giants to light them up? New York hasn’t been explosive thus far but it will be missing a few key defensive starters. The ‘under’ have gone 3-0 in the past three meetings.

Pittsburgh at San Diego: It’s very hard to handicap the Steelers without Big Ben at QB and I’d be hesitant to back the side or total in this game. These teams haven’t met since 2012 but the last three meetings have seen the ‘over’ cash with combined scores of 58, 56 and 59 points. This game does fit into the “Thursday Night” total system since the Steelers hosted the Ravens in last week’s midweek matchup. If you go with the angle, good luck!

Fearless Predictions

I’m hoping most of you got down on the Denver-Minnesota ‘over’ early because most bettors earned a push due to late surge up. Despite that win, we wound up in the red ($220) because Jacksonville can’t score and the Browns-Chargers game turned into a shootout. One quarter in the books and the bankroll is still up $190. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Washington-Atlanta 48

Best Under: Jacksonville-Tampa Bay 42

Best Team Total: St. Louis Rams Over 18

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 39 Washington-Atlanta
Over 36 ½ Pittsburgh-San Diego
Under 59 New England-Dallas

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
October 10, 2015


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Saints are 13-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since December 2000 as an away dog of more than a point with a total of at least 46 coming off a game as a home favorite.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-15-1 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since November 1992 at home coming off a home game where they scored at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Eli Manning is 10-0-1 OU (8.2 ppg) since December 2006 at home coming off a road game where he threw for at least three touchdowns.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Lions are 19-0-1 OU (8.6 ppg) since December 16, 2001 as a dog after allowing at least a TD less than expected last game.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Packers are 0-12 OU (-8.3 ppg) since January 20, 2008 as a favorite of more than three points after rushing for at least 140 yards last game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Raiders are 12-0 OU off a road loss to a non-divisional foe in which they were not trailing by more than a field goal at the half.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5
October 10, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 5

1) Arizona (710)

2) New England (642)

3) Cincinnati (521)

4) N.Y. Giants (427)

5) Houston (427)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Indianapolis (+1) 18 Houston (-1) 427

Jacksonville (+3) 285 Tampa Bay (-3) 122

Buffalo (-2.5) 385 Tennessee (+2.5) 335

Cleveland (+6.5) 325 Baltimore (-6.5) 183

Washington (+7) 304 Atlanta (-7) 380

Chicago (+9) 293 Kansas City (-9) 270

New Orleans (+4.5) 148 Philadelphia (-4.5) 376

St. Louis (+9) 325 Green Bay (-9) 219

Seattle (+3) 256 Cincinnati (-3) 521

Arizona (-2.5) 710 Detroit (+2.5) 145

New England (-8.5) 642 Dallas (+8.5) 111

Denver (-4.5) 301 Oakland (+4.5) 344

San Francisco (+7) 177 N.Y. Giants (-7) 427

Pittsburgh (+3) 191 San Diego (-3) 365

[StarDust Bum]

Week 5 Tip Sheet
October 10, 2015


Seahawks at Bengals (-3, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati is one of three teams that currently owns 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS records through four games (Atlanta and Green Bay the others). The Bengals’ offense has put up at least 28 points in three of their four victories, including 36 in last Sunday’s 36-21 home triumph over the Chiefs as 3 ½-point favorites. Cincinnati kept Kansas City out of the end zone, allowing seven field goals, while cashing the ‘over’ for the third time this season. The Bengals have performed well against NFC opponents at home since 2011, posting a 5-1-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record in this span.

The Seahawks squeaked by the Lions on Monday night to even their record at 2-2 on the season, but failed to cover as 10-point favorites in a 13-10 victory. Seattle will be without running back Marshawn Lynch for the second straight week due to a hamstring injury, but its defense has done its job since Kam Chancellor returned to the lineup by not allowing an offensive touchdown in the past two games. The defending NFC champions are seeking their first road win of the season, but Pete Carroll has compiled an impressive 18-6-1 ATS record in the past 25 games in the underdog role.

Browns at Ravens (-6 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore avoided an 0-4 start with a late comeback victory over Pittsburgh in overtime, 23-20, erasing a 13-point second half deficit. The Ravens evened their mark at 1-1 in divisional action, but dropped to 7-11-2 ATS in its previous 20 games against AFC North foes since 2012. Baltimore’s home schedule is back-loaded with six of its final nine games at M&T Bank Stadium, as the Ravens hit the road for a pair of non-conference games at San Francisco and Arizona following Sunday’s contest. The Ravens swept the Browns last season, while eight of the past nine meetings have finished ‘under’ the total.

Cleveland has won just once in four tries this season, but picked up a cover as 4 ½-point underdogs in a last-second loss at San Diego in Week 4 by a 30-27 count. The Browns have been an ‘over’ machine so far, hitting the ‘over’ in all four games, while the defense has given up at least 27 points three times. Under Mike Pettine, the Browns have been a solid bet in the role of a road underdog, putting together a 6-2 ATS ledger, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against AFC North competition.

Redskins at Falcons (-7, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta avoided a letdown following his comeback victory at Dallas as the Falcons dismantled the Texans last Sunday, while jumping out to a 42-0 advantage. The Falcons won just six games last season, but are searching for their first 5-0 start since 2012, when the team reached the NFC Championship before falling to San Francisco. This is a big game for Atlanta, who travels to New Orleans on Thursday night for a key divisional showdown, as the Falcons have won three of their past four tries since 2010 in the game prior to traveling to the Big Easy.

Washington is seeking its first road victory of 2015, but the Redskins are quietly making a move in the NFC East following a last-minute 23-20 triumph over the Eagles as three-point underdogs. Jay Gruden’s club has outgained each of its first four opponents on the ground, but faces a Falcons’ running game that has averaged 146.5 yards/game the last two weeks. Washington is making its first visit to the Georgia Dome since 2013, when the Redskins dropped a 27-26 decision as 5 ½-point underdogs, as Kirk Cousins torched Atlanta’s defense for 381 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat.

Saints at Eagles (-5, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

It’s tough to call a game do-or-die in mid-October, but both New Orleans and Philadelphia enter Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field with 1-3 records. The Eagles have yet to beat an NFC opponent, with their only victory coming against the Jets in Week 3. Chip Kelly’s team hasn’t covered as a favorite yet this season, going 0-3 ATS when laying points, while posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight regular season games. After the offense looked explosive in the preseason, the Eagles are one of two teams (Vikings) that has yet to record an ‘over’ this season, going 4-0 to the ‘under.’

New Orleans broke through the win column in a dramatic overtime victory over Dallas last Sunday night as Drew Brees hooked up with C.J. Spiller on an 80-yard touchdown connection to grab a 26-20 victory, while covering as three-point favorites. The Saints have covered three of their last four as a road underdog since the start of last season, while making their first trip to Philadelphia since eliminating the Eagles in the 2013 Wild Card round, 26-24 as three-point ‘dogs. Since Brees arrived in New Orleans in 2006, the Saints have beaten the Eagles five of six times, including a pair of victories at Lincoln Financial Field.

Rams at Packers (-9 ½, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay has won 11 consecutive games at Lambeau Field since the beginning of 2014, while covering eight times in this stretch. The Packers go for their second 5-0 start in the last four seasons, as Mike McCarthy’s club put together their best defensive effort of 2015, limiting the 49ers to 196 yards and three points in a 17-3 road victory last Sunday. Green Bay has cashed the ‘over’ in nine of its last 11 contests at Lambeau Field, with both ‘unders’ coming on totals of 49 or higher.

The Rams seek their second straight road victory after knocking off previously unbeaten Arizona in Week 4 by a 24-22 score to improve to 2-0 in NFC West play. Nick Foles threw three touchdown passes, while rookie running back Todd Gurley rushed for a career-best 146 yards for St. Louis. The Rams are facing a playoff team from last season for the fourth time in five games so far in 2015, as St. Louis owns a dreadful 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS record off a road win in Jeff Fisher’s regime.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 11


Redskins having issues stringing ATS wins together

The Washington Redskins are just 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 games following an ATS win. The Redskins are in that spot at the Atlanta Falcons after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 23-20 as 3-point home dogs in Week 4.

The last time the Redskins strung together back-to-back ATS wins was in weeks 2 and 3 last season, covering against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2 and the Eagles in Week 3.

At present, the Redskins are 7-point road underdogs after opening +8 at the Falcons.

[StarDust Bum]

Kennard, Ayers, Selvie out for Giants
October 9, 2015

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) Strong side linebacker Devon Kennard and defensive linemen Robert Ayers Jr. and George Selvie are going to miss the New York Giants game Sunday night against the San Francisco 49ers with injuries.

Coach Tom Coughlin ruled out the three players and receiver Victor Cruz on Friday after they did not practice.

Ayers has missed two three straight games with a hamstring injury. Kennard pulled a hamstring last weekend in the win over Buffalo, and Selvie hurt a calf. Cruz has been sidelined all season with a calf injury.

Linebacker Jonathan Casillas (calf) and backup cornerbacks Jayron Hosley (concussion) and Trumaine McBride (groin) are questionable for the game.

Tight end Jerome Cunningham (knee), tackle Ereck Flowers (ankle) and defensive tackle Markus Kuhn (knee) all practiced and are probable.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 5 here.........

-- Buccaneers are 4-14-1 as non-divisional home favorites.

-- Arizona covered 12 of its last 17 road games.

-- Washington is 9-18 in last 27 games as an underdog.

-- Denver covered 13 of last 15 divisional games.

-- Eagles are 6-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites.

-- San Diego is 18-11-1 as a non-divisional home favorite.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.....

13) Dodgers 5, Mets 2-- I defer to former big leaguers on the Utley slide; they seem to have a mixed opinion. It was late and it was hard, but it was technically legal. Game 3 in Queens is going to be........very interesting.

12) Texas 24, Oklahoma 17-- Players' elation after winning this game shows how it will be difficult to bounce Charlie Strong anytime soon. Former Texas coach Mack Brown summed up the fans' reaction this way: "They'll be thrilled, until Tuesday."

11) Wisconsin 23, Nebraska 21-- Poor Mike Riley, who has four bitter defeats in his first six games as Nebraska's coach; he lost this one with :04 left.

10) Tennessee 38, Georgia 31-- Second year in row Dawgs lose their star RB to a knee injury; Nick Chubb got hurt in first quarter, didn't return and Georgia blew a 24-3 lead on road to a QB who can't pass.

9) Wake Forest 3, Boston College 0-- BC has already lost games 3-0/14-0/9-7 this year; they had ball on 1-yard line with 0:11 left and ran the ball instead of passing two times. No bueno. Imagine if these teams played in the Big X?

8) TCU 52, Kansas State 45-- K-State is playing a QB who didn't start a game in high school, yet they led 35-17 at half. Bill Snyder is a coaching genius, but he just does not have enough team speed to be in top half of this league.

7) Florida State 29, Miami 24-- Hurricane boosters despise Al Golden, who won at Temple so he must be a pretty good coach. Name being tossed around is Greg Schiano, a former Miami assistant who never really shone as a head coach with Rutgers/Bucs.

6) Michigan 38, Northwestern 0-- Jim Harbaugh is a really good coach; Wolverines shut out last three opponents; two of the three will play in bowls. Michigan State is up next, one of next week's best games.

5) Michigan State 31, Rutgers 24--Spartans struggled with Purdue/Rutgers last two weeks, but they still have not lost and they play Michigan next week.

4) Alabama 27, Arkansas 14-- If you bet on Bret Bielema against Nick Saban, what the bleep were you thinking? Razorbacks tried a fake punt in their own territory down 10-7, with predictable horrendous results.

3) Washington State 45, Oregon 38 OT-- Mike Leach is betting gold on the road. In this game, his soph QB threw 74 passes (50-74/505). Oregon is sliding quickly.

2) Cubs 6, Cardinals 3-- Joe Maddon batted the pitcher 8th and he won; I swear he does stuff sometimes just to be different, but he has an excellent track record.

1) At 12:30am local time, I was sitting in the Westgate sportsbook with about ten other humans, two of whom have gorgeous girlfriends-- I was watching the end of the San Diego State-Hawai'i game, they had bet the over in the Hornets-Clippers game from China. What a day, lot of fun. This may be the best place on earth.