The Bum's National Football League Week # 5 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/07/15 )

MONDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/05/15 )


*****......................... 0 - 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS.............0- 1 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.................0 - 1 - 0
BLOW OUT....................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 11 - 8 - 2
double play...................................24 - 14 - 1
triple play......................................11 - 9 - 1
blow out........................................4 - 1
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 22 - 10 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................1 - 0
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 3 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 4 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 1
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/08/15

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5

October 6, 2015


THURSDAY, OCT. 8
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Colts have won-covered 5 straight in series. Texans just 6-12 vs. line at home since 2013 (5-5 for O'Brien). Houston "under" 3-1 in 2015 and 8-3 "under" last 11 since mid 2014. Indy "under" 7-1 last 8 games and 9-2 "under" last 1. Colts 8-3 as road chalk with Luck since 2012 entering season.
Tech Edge: "Under" and Colts, based on "totals" and series trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 11
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lovie Smith is 0-10 SU at home with Bucs since last year (2-8 vs. spread). Lovie 0-4 as home chalk since last season. Also "under" 13-7 since last year. Jags, however, just 12-22-1 as an underdog since head coach Gus Bradley arrived in 2013.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Jags, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex Ryan was 10-5 as road chalk with the Jets. Bills not yet exhibiting last year's "under" trends when 13-3 "under" as Rexy 2-2 "over/under" to date. Titans were 2-12-2 vs. line at home past two seasons before cover vs. Colts in Week 3. Rookie QB Mariota also "over" 2-1 this season.
Tech Edge: Bills and slight to "over," based on team and recent "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Make a note that this has been a competitive series as these two have split spread decisions each year for the past five seasons! The last four meetings at Baltimore all "under" as well. Browns were 5-1-1 as road dog last season but lost first try this year at Jets in Week 1.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons are 4-0 both SU and vs. spread for rookie head coach Dan Quinn. Falcons also "under" 13-8 since late 2013. Redskins are 5-12 vs. spread away since 2013 (0-1 this season).
Tech Edge: Falcons, based on team trends..

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 1-3 SU and vs. line, head coach John Fox now on 4-8 spread run since late last year including Denver. Bears "over" 8-3 last 11 away even with "under" at Seattle.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Chiefs, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chip Kelly just 8-9 as home chalk with Birds. He was "over" 8-2 last 10 at home prior to "under" vs. Dallas. Saints only 4-7-1 last 12 as road underdog in regular season and "over" 7-3 last 10 away.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ST. LOUIS at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams just 5-12 vs. spread away since 2013. Packers are 8-1-1 vs. spread at home in regular season since 2014, also "over" 10-3 last 13 at Lambeau Field in regular season.
Tech Edge: Packers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
If Seattle listed as underdog, make a note Pete Carroll 7-3-1 getting points since 2012. Seahawks "under" 7-2 last nine in regular season, but Bengals "over" 12-6 last 18 at home. Cincy 4-0 SU and vs. line and note head coach Marvin Lewis 17-4-1 vs. line last 21 as regular season host.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at DETROIT (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cardinals 3-1 SU and vs. line, Lions 0-3 SU and vs. line. Big Red 9-2 vs. line last eleven games finished by quarterback Carson Palmer. Also 12-5 vs. line on road in reg. season under Bruce Arians. Cardinals "over" first four in 2015.
Tech Edge: Cardinals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at DALLAS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Belichick "over" first three this season, now "over" 17-7 last 24, also "over" 25-14-1 last 40 on regular season road. Belichick 2-7 as road chalk 2013-14 years but did cover at Buffalo in Week 2. Dallas is 12-3 as an underdog since 2013 but that is mostly a Romo mark. Cowboys "over" 20-15-1 last 36.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Denver 7-0 SU and vs. line last seven meetings vs. Raid-uhs. Manning 13-7 as road chalk with Broncos since 2012.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at N.Y. GIANTS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Niners a bad 0-2 SU and vs. line on road this season, now no wins or covers last four on road since late last year. Tom Coughlin 11-5 last 16 as home chalk.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 12
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at SAN DIEGO (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steelers 11-6-1 last 18 as dog but that was with Big Ben. Steelers "over" trends with Big Ben do not necessarily translate to Vick. Bolts on 3-12 spread skid since early 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Steelers, based on recent Charger spread woes.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts, Texans hook up

October 7, 2015


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (1-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Indianapolis -1, Total: 45

The Colts hope to get back star QB Andrew Luck on Thursday night when they visit the reeling Texans.

Indianapolis is off to a slow start in 2015 at 0-4 ATS (2-2 SU), but is riding a current streak of 16 straight wins versus AFC South foes. The club escaped past Jacksonville last week with a 16-13 overtime victory, as Luck was sidelined with a shoulder injury.

Houston has started 1-3 (SU and ATS) and is eager to get back on the field after a humiliating 48-21 loss in Atlanta last week in a game that was 42-0 after three quarters before some garbage touchdowns made the score closer than it should have been.

The Colts own a commanding 22-4 SU mark all-time in this series, including five straight victories, but the Texans are 8-5 ATS at home all-time against their rival. While bettors for Indy can point to the fact that road teams after being beaten by the spread by 21+ points in their previous three games are 54-21 ATS (72%) in the past 10 seasons versus conference foes where the line is +3 to -3, Houston falls in the category of slow starting offensive teams (7 or less PPG in first half) going 56-26 ATS (68%) since 1983 after allowing 40+ points in their previous game.

Luck isn't the only questionable injured Colts player on Thursday, as LB Jerrell Freeman (groin), CB Jalil Brown (groin), DE Kendall Langford (back) and LB Bjoern Werner (hamstring) also share that same status. The Texans also have a slew of players with a questionable tag, with the most notables being WR Cecil Shorts (shoulder), LB Whitney Mercilus (thigh), LB Akeem Dent (hamstring) and S Quintin Demps (hamstring).

The once-mighty Indianapolis offense has managed only 18.0 PPG and 338 total YPG this season. The Colts are looking for better balance, as they have thrown for 240 yards in all four games, but have topped 100 rushing yards just once, averaging 87 rushing YPG on 4.0 YPC. Luck has faced Houston six times in his career, going 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) with a weak 52% completion rate, but he also has thrown for 231 YPG with 14 TD and only 3 INT. If he is unable to play, the team will again turn to 40-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck who completed 30-of-47 passes for 282 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT in last week's win.

The biggest disappointment for Indy's stalling offense is WR Andre Johnson, who after posting seven 1,000-yard seasons with Houston, has just seven receptions for 51 yards in four games this season. That includes zero catches in Johnson's past two contests. But the most important receiver on the field is top WR T.Y. Hilton, who has a team-high 294 receiving yards, but zero touchdowns. In last season's trip to Houston, Hilton exploded for 223 receiving yards and a touchdown on nine catches (24.8 avg). Top RB Frank Gore has been dealing with a foot injury, but has been very productive in the past two weeks with 181 total yards and 2 TD.

The Colts defense has surrendered 388 total YPG in 2015, but has allowed only 23.2 PPG. Their main problem has been giving up too many first downs (21.0 per game), leading to a poor 33:28 time of possession. While the run-stop unit has been adequate (119 YPG on 4.1 YPC), the secondary is allowing 268 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA and a 62% completion rate. It hasn't helped that the defense has only three takeaways this year, but the Texans already have eight turnovers in four games.

Houston has been able to gain a good chunk of yardage (384 YPG), but has only 19.2 PPG to show for the efforts. The ground game has a pedestrian 100 YPG on 3.7 YPC, while quarterbacks have thrown for 285 YPG, but have a subpar 53% completion rate with 6 TD and 4 INT. The Texans will start QB Ryan Mallett (5.3 YPA, 3 TD, 3 INT) over Brian Hoyer (7.3 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT) despite Mallett playing horribly last week (12-of-27, 150 yds, 5.6 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT) and Hoyer faring much better (17-of-30, 232 yds, 7.7 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT).

While there are certainly questions on which quarterback can be most successful, there is no question that WR DeAndre Hopkins is the go-to receiver in town with 31 catches for 409 yards and 3 TD this year. With No. 2 WR Cecil Shorts (236 rec yds, 1 TD) questionable to play, veteran WR Nate Washington (210 rec yds) may see some more targets. RB Arian Foster made his season debut last week after missing the first three games with a groin injury, but gained only 10 yards on eight carries. Foster has always been a nightmare for Colts defenders though, as he has gained a robust 1,125 total yards (141 YPG), 6.0 YPC and 8 TD in eight career meetings.

The Houston defense has been a huge disappointment this season in allowing 27.0 PPG on 344 total YPG. A big part of the large amount of points allowed is the unit's mere two takeaways, as the per-play averages of 5.4 YPP, 3.8 YPC and 6.9 YPA aren't that bad. While superstar DE J.J. Watt has been his typical productive self with four sacks and 8 TFL, his teammates have combined for only two sacks and 6 TFL. The Texans need somebody else to pressure the quarterback, such as 2014 top draft pick OLB Jadeveon Clowney who has yet to record a sack in eight career games.

[StarDust Bum]

3 injured Colts stay behind, but Luck heads to Houston

October 7, 2015

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Colts quarterback Andrew Luck made the trip to Houston but three of his teammates stayed home.

Team officials said linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Bjoern Werner and running back Tyler Varga did not travel Wednesday. None of the three practiced this week. Freeman is out with a groin injury, Werner has an injured hamstring and Varga will miss his second straight game with a concussion.

The bigger question has been Luck, who was limited in practice this week with an injured right shoulder.

He missed his first pro game Sunday, ending a streak of 57 consecutive starts including playoffs. Luck said Tuesday he is preparing to start.

If he can't go, 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck probably would. Hasselbeck missed Tuesday's practice because of illness.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts-Texans Capsule

October 7, 2015

INDIANAPOLIS (2-2) at HOUSTON (1-3)

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFL Network

OPENING LINE - OFF

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Colts 0-4, Texans 1-3

SERIES RECORD - Colts lead 22-4

LAST MEETING - Colts beat the Texans 17-10, Dec. 14, 2014

LAST WEEK - Colts beat Jaguars 16-13, OT; Texans lost to Falcons 48-21

AP PRO32 RANKING - Colts No. 17, Texans No. 28

COLTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (21), RUSH (26), PASS (12).

COLTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (25), PASS (23).

TEXANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (21), PASS (6).

TEXANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (11), RUSH (22), PASS (11).

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES -

Colts have won 15 straight against AFC South opponents. ... Colts QB Andrew Luck is expected to play after sitting out last week with shoulder injury. He is 5-1 against Houston with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. ... WR Andre Johnson spent first 12 seasons in Houston. He had just one game without a catch with Texans, but has had two in last two weeks. ... Johnson (1,019) needs six catches to pass Isaac Bruce for eighth most in NFL history. ... LB D'Qwell Jackson leads Colts with 47 tackles, including 17 last week. ... K Adam Vinatieri (1,004) became Colts' all-time leading scorer last week and first player in NFL to score 1,000 or more points with two teams after scoring 1,158 for New England. ... WR Donte Moncrief has touchdown in three of Colts' last four games. ... Houston QB Ryan Mallett will make first career start within division. ... Thursday will be 150th career game for WR Nate Washington. ... In last nine games DE J.J. Watt has 15 sacks, two forced fumbles, fumble recovery, safety, six passes defensed and touchdown catch. ... LB Brian Cushing leads Texans with 33 tackles, including 11 last week. ... RB Arian Foster made season debut last week after missing first three games after groin surgery. Foster and had eight carries for 10 yards. ... Fantasy Tip: WR DeAndre Hopkins had nine catches for 157 yards last week and has 816 yards receiving with five touchdowns in last nine games. Hopkins might get even more targets with WR Cecil Shorts out with shoulder injury, making him even more attractive fantasy option.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 5 Essentials

October 5, 2015


October opened with only Arizona falling from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving six perfect teams entering Week 5. New England and Tennessee become the first teams to come off a bye, while four others take a breather as we come up on the first week with just 14 contests. Let’s size them up.

Thursday, Oct. 8

Indianapolis at Houston: Star QB Andrew Luck missed Sunday’s OT win over Jacksonville, but the Colts are confident he'll be able to play here. Then again, head coach Chuck Pagano was banking on that last week too, which makes this a situation we’ll be monitoring until game day. 40-year-old backup Matt Hasselbeck did enough to defeat the Jaguars at home, but this would be a much tougher challenge given the short week of preparation, road atmosphere and an embarrassed Texans defense looking to bounce back from being demolished in Atlanta.


Sunday, Oct. 11

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay:

New kicker Jason Myers cost the Jags a pair of opportunities to get to 2-2 with his errant field goals, but the Jags have to be encouraged by how effectively their defense was able to get pressure on Hasselbeck. Getting safety Johnathan Cyprien back is definitely a game-changer, so turnover-prone Bucs rookie QB Jameis Winston should have his hands full. The No. 1 pick of the 2015 draft has thrown a league-high seven interceptions.

Buffalo at Tennessee:

The Bills are on pace to be the most penalized team in NFL history, most recently costing themselves points, yardage and rhythm in a lopsided home loss to the Giants. Although Rex Ryan’s team again won’t have LeSean McCoy due to a partially torn hamstring, they could get Sammy Watkins back from a calf injury. QB Tyrod Taylor badly missed his No. 1 receiver on Sunday. Tennessee comes off a bye and will be looking for its first home win of the Marcus Mariota era. Banged-up targets Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker should benefit from the rest.

Washington at Atlanta:

The Falcons have shredded NFC East competition so far, but now have to deal with the weight of expectations too after impressively and unexpectedly destroying Houston. After a 20-4 regular-season run at home from 2010-12, Atlanta has surrendered its dome-field dominance by going 3-5 at the Georgia Dome in each of the last two seasons, so seeing it flex some muscle against the Texans is a welcome sign for the locals. The ‘Skins are surprisingly 2-2 despite their tumultuous QB situation and the absence of top target DeSean Jackson, who is unlikely to return from a hamstring injury. Coming off an emotional win over the Eagles, this is a situation where they have the equivalent of a freeroll with nothing to lose, which could make them dangerous if Kirk Cousins can again accurately throw the football.

Cleveland at Baltimore:

Despite losing at the final gun in San Diego, the Browns did see QB Josh McCown tighten his grip on the starting job with a masterful performance moving the offense down the stretch in a shootout with Philip Rivers. The Ravens defense isn’t what it used to be, so look for Cleveland to be confident in what boils down to an early AFC North elimination game since the loser falls to 1-4. CB Joe Haden missed the Chargers game but should return to face a decimated Baltimore receiving corps. With Steve Smith Sr., Breshad Perriman and Michael Campanaro all probably out, who is Joe Flacco going to throw to? Kamar Aiken will most likely be the top target.

Chicago at Kansas City:

Although he entered Week 4 as doubtful, Jay Cutler returned from a hamstring injury and found a way to pick up a win that a Bears team that seems to be tanking given who they’ve already traded didn’t really need. Of course, until the front office moves Cutler or Matt Forte, Chicago still has personnel capable of making plays and should welcome Alshon Jeffery back to the fold after he sat Week 4 with a hamstring injury. Defensive tackle Jay Ratliff also returns from suspension, so they may again be no pushover. The Chiefs have faced teams that remain undefeated (12-0 combined record) in each of the last three weeks, so they can really use this perceived breather.

New Orleans at Philadelphia:

After the defense surrendered a late Cowboys touchdown to tie it with less than two minutes left, Drew Brees-to-CJ Spiller for 80 yards delivered the Saints first win in OT, providing an emotional boost while snapping a six-game Superdome losing streak. The demoralized Eagles can certainly use a pick-me-up after a torturous loss in Landover against the ‘Skins where no one managed to make a play on either side of the ball when the team needed it most. Chip Kelly is rightfully catching heat for Philly’s offensive struggles, but allowing Cousins to drive a team the length of the field tells you how disappointing the defense has also been. The loser falls to 1-4 here too, so desperation will be a driving force.

St. Louis at Green Bay:

After having his way with the Chiefs in his last game at Lambeau, Aaron Rodgers struggled in San Francisco in spite of the Packers 17-3 win. He got hit far more than he had been all season and seemed to lack the usual chemistry with his receivers. Home cooking should help, but a Rams defensive front that has dominated in every game this season and just beat Arizona on its own field will provide a stiff challenge. Offensively, it appears St. Louis is starting to figure out how to maximize Tavon Austin’s skill set, which spells trouble for every defense on its schedule.

Seattle at Cincinnati:

A road game on a short week coming off a Monday night game always comes with built-in obstacles, so the fact the opponent is the unbeaten Bengals complicates matters even further for the Seahawks. Andy Dalton is playing with a level of confidence we haven’t seen from him as a pro, so facing off against the Legion of Boom provides a tremendous opportunity to truly turn the corner. He won’t be accepted until he wins a playoff game, sure, but a strong performance here would be something he can draw upon as he builds up to where he wants to be in three months.

Arizona at Detroit:

Coming off their first dose of adversity, the Cardinals get to display whether they’re truly worthy of all that early hype as they hit the road to face the Lions. The Rams utilized their explosive speed to excel against a defense that had imposed their will on their first three opponents, so facing Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate will further test this unit. Arizona will look to keep Matthew Stafford from finding a rhythm. This will be the first game in a five-week stretch that takes Bruce Arians’ team on the road four times. Detroit saw DT Haloti Ngata and TE Eric Ebron leave Monday night's loss with injuries, so monitor their availability.

New England at Dallas:

Well, Tom Brady vs. Brandon Weeden doesn’t have the same allure as what we envisioned seeing when the schedule was released, but considering the Cowboys are 0-2 since losing Tony Romo, this one’s big. Dallas faces the prospect of entering its bye week below .500 and facing tough games against the Giants, Seahawks and Eagles before the earliest Romo and WR Dez Bryant are scheduled to return. Expect them to pull out all the stops here, but it would really help to have LB Sean Lee cleared from a concussion suffered on Sunday night. They will have DE Greg Hardy and LB Rolando McClain back from suspension to try and help slow a Patriots offense averaging 39.7 points per game.

Denver at Oakland:

The Broncos defense is allowing a 17.25 points (second-lowest behind N.Y. Jets) and has been the driving force behind an unblemished record, so the story here is them getting their first look at a much-improved Derek Carr and his new top target, Amari Cooper. Oakland’s coaches have to be kicking themselves for conservative play-calling late in their upset loss at Chicago, since they appeared to play for a field goal when they could’ve been more aggressive and wound up paying the price when Cutler led his last-second comeback. The Raiders should be 3-1, so expect them to command Denver’s full attention since they may soon emerge as the top threat in the AFC West.

San Francisco at N.Y.

Giants: After starting the season with a pair of fourth-quarter collapses, the Giants have gotten back on track and are favored to pick up a third consecutive win here. Eli Manning will have to avoid miscues against a 49ers defense that has looked formidable for the better part of the season and isn’t likely to get back Victor Cruz, who is still struggling with a calf injury. For all his costly early issues, Manning’s QBR is currently the highest of his career. Colin Kaepernick’s rating is at its lowest point ever, as he’s thrown just two TDs versus five interceptions so far this season. Over his last two starts, he’s 22-for-44, throwing for no scores and all five picks.

Monday, Oct. 12

Pittsburgh at San Diego:

Backup Michael Vick leads the Steelers onto another primetime stage after doing his part in giving his team a chance to bury Baltimore last Thursday night. Kicker Josh Scobee, the main culprit in the defeat, has been replaced, but the Steelers had issues on both sides of the ball in falling short in OT. They will get WR Martavis Bryant back from suspension to give Vick yet another weapon, while LB Ryan Shazier could also return from a shoulder injury. The Chargers will have future Hall-of-Fame tight end Antonio Gates back for Rivers to throw to and should have a healthier offensive line in play since the situation there has nowhere to go but up.

[StarDust Bum]

Colts' Luck does limited work in practice

October 6, 2015

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Andrew Luck is rested, ready and eager to play Thursday night at Houston.

Whether he's healthy enough to dress may not be settled until shortly before kickoff.

Two days after missing his first professional game, the Colts quarterback stayed out of the view of reporters during Tuesday's practice and was again listed as a limited participant and day to day with an injured right shoulder.

Afterward, Luck acknowledged the recovery is going well and he hopes to start in his hometown.

''I think I've gotten better every day,'' Luck said. ''I don't think I'm necessarily where I would want to be today in a perfect, perfect world, but I'm getting better every day.''

Luck is no longer the only quarterback on Indianapolis' injury report, either.

Backup Matt Hasselbeck, who rallied the Colts to a 16-13 overtime victory Sunday against Jacksonville, missed practice with what coach Chuck Pagano described as an illness.

Without Hasselbeck, Pagano said Luck took most of the snaps and threw some passes during the closed portion of practice. The rest of the snaps went to practice squad quarterback Alex Tanney.

And Luck is weary of the speculation about what's wrong.

He'd rather talk about anything else - the two-game winning streak that has Indianapolis (2-2) back atop the AFC South, Hasselbeck's comeback victory Sunday, the return to his hometown, even Indy's 15-game winning streak against division foes.

But as long as there are concerns about Luck's health, the questions won't stop.

One media report Monday said that Luck has a partially separated shoulder. Pagano said Monday that's not the diagnosis he received, and Luck declined to shed any additional light on the injury Tuesday.

''I'm not going to give credence to any report. People have told me a lot of different things that I allegedly have or don't have,'' said Luck, who started his first 57 NFL games including the playoffs. ''So I'm not going to address one (report) that would give it any credence.''

Meanwhile, the Texans (1-3) aren't paying much attention to the updates coming out of Indy.

As they try to climb back into the division race by derailing the Colts' quest for a record-breaking 16th consecutive win against division foes, Texans coach Bill O'Brien told a small group of Indianapolis reporters it makes no difference which quarterback starts.

''I would say Andrew Luck will play in the game, so we will prepare for him,'' O'Brien said during the conference call. ''We also watched last week's tape when Matt played so we'll be ready for him, too. But I would say it's not going to alter our game plan either way too much.''

Hasselbeck believes Luck will play and there are hints leaning in that direction.

Pagano has already noted Luck appears to be further along in his recovery this week than he was last week.

Luck lobbed two very short screen passes during Monday's walkthrough open portion of practice and apparently did more extensive work Tuesday.

Indy also released third-string quarterback Josh Johnson, who was signed as an emergency option Friday. That leaves only two quarterbacks - Luck and Hasselbeck - on Indy's active roster.

So will Luck start?

''I'm prepared to start and play and have a chance to go up against a really good football team in the Texans,'' Luck said. ''Again, that's the preparation mindset.''

And Hasselbeck will be ready, just in case.

''I'm OK, I'm fine,'' he said. ''I'm sure I'll be ready to go if they need me.''

Notes:

Safety Mike Adams (neck), defensive lineman Henry Anderson (foot), cornerbacks Jalil Brown (groin) and Vontae Davis (foot), linebackers Jerrell Freeman (groin) and Bjoern Werner (hamstring) and running back Tyler Varga (concussion) all sat out Tuesday. ... Running back Frank Gore (foot) and defensive end Kendall Langford (back), who missed Monday's practice, returned to practice Tuesday. ... Tight end Dwayne Allen (ankle) and cornerback Greg Toler (neck) did full workouts for the second straight day.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Colts at Texans
October 7, 2015


Andrew Luck threw passes on Tuesday amid speculation he’s nursing a partial separation of his right throwing shoulder, stating he was “preparing to start and play.” On Wednesday, there were no reported setbacks as the Indianapolis quarterback looks to suit up in his hometown against AFC South rival Houston following a one-game absence.

No news may not necessarily be good news. As was the case last week, the Colts aren’t letting anyone see how effective Luck actually is, working him out indoors and away from media scrutiny.

Although all signs pointed to him missing the first start of his career this past Sunday, the build-up featured head coach Chuck Pagano adamantly holding out hope and divulging little of substance. The announcement came early Sunday morning that Luck wouldn’t be able to go against Jacksonville, but you get the feeling that was always the expectation internally. Backup Matt Hasselbeck got the call in a 16-13 overtime win that the Jaguars would’ve secured if not for a pair of missed potential game-winning field goal. It was his first start since 2012.

As for what to believe this week, hearing Luck’s declaration is reassuring, but nothing will be certain until we’re closer to kick-off. Complicating matters, the 40-year-old Hasselbeck reportedly fell ill, so the team has brought back Josh Johnson for a second consecutive week despite cutting him on Monday. He was also cut by the Bengals and Jets this preseason but has a strong arm and can really run. Consider Johnson plan C.

Officially, Luck and Hasselbeck are listed as questionable. The majority of shops listed Thursday night’s Week 5 opener as a pick’em until late Wednesday, when the Texans emerged as a 2-point home favorite.

Indianapolis has won its last eight games in this Thursday night short-week situation. The Colts have excelled in the compromising situation of a road game on little rest and are looking to set an NFL record with their 16th consecutive division win. Of course, 14 of those wins have come thanks to Luck, while No. 15 last week came as a result of luck given Jacksonville’s place-kicking woes. Indy was downright wasteful in the red zone, going 1-for-4 in delivering touchdowns, losing out altogether once due to another Frank Gore fumble.

Houston comes off a humbling 48-21 loss in Atlanta that saw them down 42-0 through three quarters. Despite leading the Texans to three touchdowns in the fourth, Brian Hoyer won’t be getting his job back – at least to start this game. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien doesn’t want a controversy, so Ryan Mallett will get his second consecutive start after being handed the reins in Week 2. Unfortunately for O’Brien, it’s a little too late to avoid a situation where both of these guys will be looking over their shoulders since neither was able to separate themselves in the preseason.

Mallett won only home start, playing reasonably well in a 19-9 victory against Tampa Bay, but has been abysmal in road losses in Carolina and Atlanta, completing less than 46 percent of his passes. The hope is that he’ll be able to get comfortable early in Houston, which will likely require a strong start from top receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the NFL’s leader in targets. He’s on pace for a record number after getting 22 passes thrown his way in Atlanta and has 31 receptions, good for fifth in the league. Between their two quarterbacks, the Texans threw it 57 times in Atlanta, gaining 382 yards on their 29 completions, but the majority of those numbers were padded in the fourth quarter since Houston called only four runs.

Receiver Cecil Shorts scored a touchdown, but won’t be available for this one after hurting a shoulder. Nate Washington, who didn’t play last week but was averaging over nine targets per game over the last three games, will be absent again as well, leaving rookies Jaelen Strong, Chandler Worthy and Keith Mumphery to round out the receiving corps. With Indianapolis getting Greg Toler back from a bruised disc in his neck to fortify a banged-up secondary, this will be the strongest the Colts have been in the back all season. Vontae Davis has been matching up with No. 1s for most of the season and will probably see a lot of Hopkins, although Toler’s return may offer him some relief from that responsibility.

Given all the issues related to the passing game, it’s no surprise the expectation is that Arian Foster will be a much larger part of the game plan. The Falcons kept him bottled up in his first action of 2015, surrendering just 10 yards on eight carries and three receptions for 26 yards. His biggest play was a 15-yard reception from Mallett on Houston’s first play, but it was all downhill after that, including a costly second-quarter fumble that Atlanta corner Desmond Trufant returned for a touchdown. Expect Foster to get more carries, but Alfred Blue and Chris Polk should still get work and may be utilized to keep the ball out of Luck’s hands if he’s indeed out there.

The total on this game opened at 45 and has been holding steady all week but will drop drastically if Luck isn’t standing behind center for the Colts. VegasInsider.com Total Expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the ‘over/under’ for Thursday’s game.

“In last week’s game versus the Jaguars, the total went from 48 to 43 without Luck in the game and both teams combined for 29 points. I don’t believe you’ll see that big of a drop this week only because the Colts defense is still horrendous, which tells you what I think of the Jaguars offense. Only scoring 13 points while racking up 431 total yards and 21 first downs is mind-boggling, but it is Jacksonville we’re talking about,” explained David. “If Houston gets in the red zone, and I believe they will, it should muster up four to five scores in this spot.”

Bettors have watched the ‘over/under’ produce a 2-2 mark over the last two seasons but the two ‘over’ winners did take place in Texas as the teams combined for 61 and 51 points.

Indy's QB, whoever it is, will have a motivated wideout to throw to in Andre Johnson, who will be facing his former team for the first time after feeling he was pushed out by the current regime. Houston's all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs, he's amassed nearly three times as many receiving yards as any other target in team history. Fans will give him a warm reception, but the same can't be said between the lines since members of the secondary will have faced off against Johnson in practices and workouts for years. Starting corner Kareem Jackson was Houston's first-round pick in 2010. Ten-year veteran Johnathan Joseph came on board in 2011. They‘re as familiar with Johnson, T.Y. Hilton and emerging second-year WR Donte Moncrief as anyone in the league, seeing these guys twice a year and having the pre-existing relationship with Johnson. Hilton has dominated the Texans throughout his career and has been especially effective at NRG Stadium, amassing 16 catches for an eye-popping 444 yards and four touchdowns the past two seasons.

Few defensive players know Luck as intimately as J.J. Watt, who has sacked him eight times in six meetings. Watt sacked him twice and ran in last year’s meeting in Houston and also recovered a fumble and returned it for a touchdown, but the Colts still won 33-28. Watt has four sacks on the season but has yet to account for a turnover. Given last week’s debacle, expect a fierce effort from the Texans defense, which has surrendered an average of 26 points per game over the last five games in this series, all losses. Their last win against Indianapolis came in Houston back in Dec. 2012, the only time they’ve beaten Luck in his career. We’ll see whether they even have a chance to change that on Thursday night, but the Texans would undoubtedly have an easier time winning if he’s stuck on the sidelines in a baseball cap again.

[StarDust Bum]

Public Fades - Week 5
October 7, 2015

The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books with five teams undefeated and four of those owning 4-0 records (Patriots come in at 3-0). Favorites put together a 6-8-1 ATS record in Week 4, including outright underdog victories by the Giants, Rams, Bears, and Redskins. In last week’s edition of “Public Fades,” we focused on the Texans and Browns. Houston was pummeled from the start at Atlanta, even though the late money came in on the Texans. Cleveland responded with a cover in a 30-27 setback at San Diego to cash as five-point underdogs, improving to 2-1 ATS in the ‘dog role.

In this week’s version, we’ll focus on two late kickoffs and go against a pair of undefeated teams the public will surely chase with. Both New England and Denver hit the highway as road favorites, looking to keep their record perfect, as the Patriots are off the bye headed to Dallas, while the Broncos travel to the Black Hole to face the Raiders. Several of our NFL experts checked in with their thoughts on why to back these home underdogs in Week 5.

Patriots (-8 ½, 49 ½) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

New England has dominated its way to a 3-0 mark so far as Tom Brady has thrown nine touchdowns and no interceptions. In the past two games, the Patriots have scored 91 points in wins over the Bills and Jaguars, while slicing up Buffalo for 466 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2. New England is coming off the bye week, as the Pats are 4-2 SU but own a 2-3-1 ATS record since 2009 when off the previous week (regular season only).

The wheels are slowly going off the track for the Cowboys, who are 0-2 since Tony Romo suffered a collarbone injury in Week 2 at Philadelphia. Dallas blew a 14-point lead in a Week 3 setback against Atlanta and followed that defeat up with an overtime loss at New Orleans last Sunday night. The Cowboys have covered only once in four games, which includes an 0-2 ATS mark at home, dropping their mark at AT&T Stadium to 3-8 ATS since the start of 2014.

So why back the Cowboys?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says even though Brandon Weeden isn’t the caliber of Romo, the former Oklahoma State quarterback hasn’t put up bad numbers, “Weeden is not the big play threat that Romo is but he has just one turnover in two-plus games while completing over 76 percent of his passes. The offensive line and running game should be the key for the Cowboys to stay in this game as the Patriots rank 31st in the league allowing 4.9 yards per rush this season and Dallas has the potential to grind out some drives to limit the possessions for Brady and the excellent New England offense.”

The Cowboys may have struggled from an ATS standpoint as a home favorite, but Nelson points out that this team has profited in the role of a home ‘dog, “Dallas is on a 30-14 ATS run as a home underdog going back to 1990 including going 3-1 ATS the past two seasons in that role, while also going 5-0 ATS in the last five instances as an underdog of 7 or more points.”

From a league-wide standpoint, Nelson has dug up an interesting angle that can benefit the Cowboys, “Since 2006, NFL home underdogs of more than seven points are 72-44 ATS including going just 26-12 ATS since 2011 and with Green Bay’s line in San Francisco last week closing at just -7. this game has the potential to feature the biggest home underdog spread of the season, a distinction a competitive Cowboys team likely does not deserve.”

NFL expert Antony Dinero says the defense will be the key for Dallas to hang around with New England, “Dallas will have new blood on defense with Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain ready to go. Since their absences were suspension-related, both are expected to be 100 percent, which few players are even at this early stage of the season. The Cowboys are optimistic that Sean Lee, a difference-maker at linebacker, will get through protocol and be on board as well, so they’ll be far better-stocked than they were in the closing stages of Sunday’s OT loss at New Orleans. The Cowboys are a heavy underdog for good reason, but would seem to have a fighting chance.”

Broncos (-5, 43 ½) at Raiders – 4:25 PM EST

Denver hasn’t been sharp in two home games, sneaking past Baltimore and Minnesota at Sports Authority Field. However, the Broncos have won and covered on the road at Kansas City and Detroit as Denver seeks its second 5-0 start in the last three seasons with a victory at Oakland in Week 5. Denver’s defense has been spectacular so far, allowing 20 points or less in three of four games, while giving up the second-least amount of points in the league.

The Raiders have lost each of the last six meetings with the Broncos since Peyton Manning joined Denver in 2012, including a pair of blowout losses as double-digit underdogs last season. Oakland dropped a 22-20 road decision at Chicago last Sunday in its first favorite opportunity of the season. The Raiders have covered four of their last five games at the Black Hole dating back to last December, including the Week 2 victory against Baltimore, all as an underdog.

So why back the Raiders?

Nelson says in spite of the Broncos’ unblemished mark, they haven’t played a complete game yet, “Denver has trailed or been tied in the second half of three of the four games in the team’s 4-0 start, sitting at just +28 in point differential with four narrow wins. The Broncos have three defensive touchdowns this season as their offense has outscored their opponents offenses by an even smaller margin.”

When comparing the two quarterbacks in this game, Oakland’s signal-caller has put together an impressive start to the season according to Nelson, “Derek Carr currently rates 9th in the NFL in QBR, compared to Manning, who is 19th through four weeks. Manning has thrown five interceptions this season compared to just two for Carr. Denver leads the NFL with 18 sacks but Carr has taken just three sacks in four games as he is getting the ball out quickly in the new offense and the Raiders have a very talented receiving corps with great size.”

Nelson says Oakland can use some of its Intel for its division opener, “For a Raiders team looking to gain credibility, there is no better opportunity than this division home game, the first AFC West game of the season for Oakland. Head Coach Jack Del Rio was the defensive coordinator in Denver the past three seasons as he knows the personnel well and there will be significant motivational factors for the Raiders this week, especially coming off a crushing loss last Sunday.”

NFL handicapper Vince Akins says Oakland is in a favorable position with the line flip from last week, "This week represents a great swing in the line away from the Raiders relative to where is has been the past two weeks. Last week, Oakland was road favorite for the second-straight week as they laid three points in Chicago. Going from a road favorite for two straight games to a home dog is an occurrence so rare it happens less than once per season on average. Even going from a legitimate road favorite one week to being a legit home dog the next doesn't happen that often. When it does, it has been a value spot as teams have covered 62.5% of the time as a home dog of more than a point after a loss as an away favorite of more than a point."

[StarDust Bum]

Oddsmakers can't give Cowboys enough points versus Patriots

“We’ll look to make the Pats at minimum touchdown chalk... We should get good two-way action with the Cowboys as rare, sizeable home dogs.” - John Lester, Bookmaker.eu

This was supposed to be the week that a franchise quarterback would have to sit out a big game between the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys.

As it’s turned out, that will be the case – except the quarterback will be Tony Romo for Dallas, rather than New England’s Tom Brady, who would have been serving the final game of his four-game suspension if that hadn’t been overturned.

The Cowboys (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS), just hoping to tread water as Romo continues recovering from a broken left clavicle, were dealt a 26-20 overtime loss as 3-point underdogs at New Orleans Sunday night.

Along with a big edge at QB, the Patriots also come in rested after having their bye in Week 4. New England (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is coming off a 51-17 swamping of Jacksonville as a 14.5-point chalk on Sept. 27.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, held off on the opening line, since the Cowboys were playing Sunday night – in a game in which they lost star linebacker Sean Lee to a concussion. But Lester told Covers he expects to make the Pats healthy road favorites.

“This was going to be a massive handle with all of the superstars involved before the injuries,” Lester said, also alluding to Dallas being without Dez Bryant (foot). “But this is still a big-impact game for the books, with a ton of appeal for the bettors.

“We’ll look to make the Pats at minimum touchdown chalk if nothing strange happens Sunday night. We should get good two-way action with the Cowboys as rare, sizeable home dogs.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, echoed Lester’s sentiments.

“Dallas isn't playing too bad since Brandon Weeden took over for Romo. But against this Patriots group, you want your team at full strength, and the Cowboys are not,” Avello said. “Expect the Cowboys to be getting a full touchdown at home for this one.”

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (N/A)

The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks look to continue righting this season’s ship after they lost their first two games. Seattle (1-2 SU and ATS) is hosting Detroit in the Monday nighter this week, after posting a 26-0 rout of Chicago as a 16.5-point fave in Week 3 for its first win of the season.

The Bengals are perfect on the field and against the oddsmakers at 4-0 SU and ATS. On Sunday, Cincy had no trouble in dispatching Kansas City 36-21 giving 3.5 points at home.

“I think the folks who thought Cincinnati was smoke and mirrors are now convinced, maybe,” said Lester, who again had to hold on the line due to the Seahawks’ Monday night affair. “This matchup will be a good test for the teams and the oddsmakers. The Seahawks will probably have trouble keeping Russell Wilson upright against this ferocious front seven of Cincinnati. I’m looking closer to a pick ‘em here, with the way the Bengals have played at home.”

Avello noted the Seahawks need to find their form away from Seattle, while Cincy can show whether it has a legitimate top-tier team.

“Seattle lost its first two road games this year and can't afford another one,” he said. “The Bengals are off to a great start, but this is where we can tell if they belong in the after-party that starts in January. The game will be near pick ‘em.”

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+5.5)

As ugly as it may have looked, Denver (4-0, 3-1 ATS) won its first three games SU and ATS. On Sunday against Minnesota, the Broncos uglied it up a little more, yet won again 23-20 on a late field goal, though they failed to cash as 7-point favorites.

Oakland (2-2 SU and ATS) looks to be an improving squad and was on the verge of a 3-1 SU start. But the Raiders allowed the Bears to drive for a last-second field goal Sunday, losing 22-20 as 3-point road favorites.

“The Broncos are another of the undefeated teams, but I can't tell you exactly why, except that Peyton Manning loves playing football with less than two minutes in a game,” Avello said. “Oakland is surely improving the quality of its team, but unlike Manning, the Raiders are still finding ways to lose. They have a seven-game losing streak (0-6-1 ATS) to the Broncos, but I sense there is a belief that they can win this.”

Said Lester, “Both of these West division squads have played on par with expectations this season, so we feel comfortable with this number. Obviously, the public is going to be eager to get on the visitors, and we’ll certainly have a ton of teaser money involved with Denver. But this will be the biggest game at the Coliseum in quite a while, so there should be a good home-field edge for Oakland.”

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (N/A)

With Andrew Luck not really looking like, well, Andrew Luck, the Colts (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) haven’t yet cashed for bettors this season and are part of a muddled AFC South.

After dropping its first two games of the season, Indianapolis barely snuck past host Tennessee 35-33 laying three points in Week 3. And without Luck (shoulder) as 4-point home faves Sunday, the Colts needed overtime to edge perennially hapless Jacksonville 16-13.

Houston (1-3 SU and ATS) will attempt to right its unstable ship after getting shellacked Sunday as a 4-point pup at Atlanta, 48-21.

“A couple of underwhelming teams that aren’t as poor as their records indicate,” Lester said. “We will wait to hang a line until the status of Luck is determined. We don’t know who the Texans quarterback will be, but that’s negligible. Both squads desperately need a win on Thursday night.”

Avello wouldn’t argue with that assessment one bit.

“The Colts have won two straight after losing the opening pair, but haven't looked anything like the team that won 11 games in each of the last three seasons,” he said. “Houston can't find its way right now, and without a win here, their season is most likely over after only five weeks.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 8

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (1 - 3) - 10/8/2015, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 11

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 3) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (2 - 2) at TENNESSEE (1 - 2) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (1 - 3) at BALTIMORE (1 - 3) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (4 - 0) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (1 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 3) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 3) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (2 - 2) at GREEN BAY (4 - 0) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 145-182 ATS (-55.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 145-182 ATS (-55.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 104-143 ATS (-53.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (2 - 2) at CINCINNATI (4 - 0) - 10/11/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 1) at DETROIT (0 - 4) - 10/11/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/11/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (4 - 0) at OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/11/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/11/2015, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 12

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) - 10/12/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Thursday - Oct, 8

Indianapolis at Houston, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 10-2 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 1-4 ATS when playing on Thursday


Sunday - Oct, 11

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 8-1 OVER in non-conference games
Tampa Bay: 2-12 ATS against AFC South division opponents

Buffalo at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 15-5 UNDER in all lined games
Tennessee: 0-6 ATS off a home loss

Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 23-39 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Baltimore: 6-0 ATS off in 2 straight division games

Washington at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Washington: 73-45 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5
Atlanta: 0-7 ATS in home games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more

Chicago at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 7-20 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Kansas City: 13-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games

New Orleans at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 61-36 OVER off a home win
Philadelphia: 6-1 ATS off a road loss

St Louis at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 104-143 ATS against conference opponents
Green Bay: 8-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Seattle at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 22-10 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders
Cincinnati: 3-10 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Arizona at Detroit, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 13-2 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Detroit: 1-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game

New England at Dallas, 4:25 ET
New England: 10-2 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Dallas: 1-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 of last 4 games

Denver at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Denver: 7-0 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Oakland: 24-43 ATS in home games versus division opponents

San Francisco at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points
New York: 41-24 UNDER after a win by 14 or more points
nfl football betting online bovada


Monday - Oct, 12

Pittsburgh at San Diego, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 70-48 ATS as an underdog
San Diego: 17-33 ATS at home after allowing 6 or more yards/play in previous game

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 8

8:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games at home


Sunday, October 11

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. TAMPA BAY
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Chicago

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. GREEN BAY
St. Louis is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Green Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against St. Louis

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 12 games
Tennessee is 5-17-2 ATS in its last 24 games
Tennessee is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. PHILADELPHIA
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Philadelphia is 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home
Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Seattle is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Baltimore's last 19 games at home
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ATLANTA
Washington is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing Detroit
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Oakland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games when playing Dallas
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

8:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games


Monday, October 12

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh is 6-1-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 8


Lions DT Walker suffers broken leg

Nearly forgotten amid the controversial finish in Monday's game between the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks was the injury suffered by Lions defensive tackle Tyrunn Walker, who had to be taken off the field on a cart during the game.

Walker was scheduled to have surgery for a broken fibula on Tuesday and could be lost for the season, according NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport.

The Lions are expected to put Walker on the injured-reserve list.

Walker was signed by the Lions in March after playing his first three NFL seasons for the New Orleans Saints. Walker started each of the Lions' first four games, the first season in which he has been a regular starter in the NFL.

He was injurted when his leg got twisted during a pileup.

Lions defensive tackle Haloti Ngata suffered a calf injury in the game, and his status is uncertain.


Cowboys WR Bryant could return Week 8

All-Pro wide receiver Dez Bryant is on pace to return to the Dallas Cowboys as soon as October 23.

The Cowboys (2-2) are off next week following Sunday's matchup with the undefeated New England Patriots, when linebacker Rolando McClain and defensive end Greg Hardy are expected to play for Dallas for the first time this season.

Owner Jerry Jones said Tuesday more reinforcements could be coming soon, namely Bryant, who had surgery to repair a broken right foot. Bryant was hurt in the third quarter of the Cowboys' season opener last month.


Falcons place Hester on short-term IR

The Atlanta Falcons placed Devin Hester on short-term injured reserve with the turf toe injury that has sidelined the veteran receiver and return man through the first four games of the season.

The team also signed safety Charles Godfrey and tight end Tony Moeaki and released tight end Mickey Shuler.

Hester will not be eligible to practice with the Falcons for six weeks and will not be eligible to play until Week 13 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


Buccaneers sign PK Barth

Connor Barth is back with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The place-kicker outlasted Kai Forbath, Randy Bullock and Billy Cundiff in a tryout Monday, the same day the Buccaneers released kicker Kyle Brindza. Brindza missed three kicks in Sunday's loss, part of a growing epidemic of inaccuracy for kickers around the league.

During Tampa Bay's latest loss, Barth proclaimed his willingness to return to the Buccaneers "for the right price" via Twitter.

Barth is back where he kicked from 2009-2012.

Week 4 around the NFL included 14 missed field goals and four missed extra points prior to the Monday night game. It’s been four years since the league has seen 18 missed kicks in one week of play.

Perhaps even more alarming, placekickers made only 15 of 22 attempts (68.2 percent) from under 40 yards. That’s about a 12 percent drop from that distance since the start of 2013.


Bills RB Williams could miss Week 5; Herron signed

Buffalo Bills running back Karlos Williams entered the NFL concussion protocol on Monday and could miss the Bills' Week 5 game against the Tennessee Titans.

With running back LeSean McCoy also injured, the Bills hosted a workout for several players, including former first-round pick Trent Richardson, the 25-year-old bust with the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts and Oakland Raiders. Richardson was cut by the Raiders before the start of the 2015 season.

However, the Bills signed running back Dan Herron to the team's 53-man roster on Tuesday.

Herron, 26, spent the 2014 and 2013 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts. He played 16 games, including three starts, for the Colts last season, rushing for 351 yards and catching 21 passes for 173 yards.

Williams started Sunday in place of McCoy, whose hamstring injury has been a problem for more than a month. McCoy is not expected to return until he's 100 percent healthy.


Falcons hope to get injured RB Coleman back this week

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. – Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman, who suffered fractured ribs against the New York Giants on Sept. 20, may return to practice on Wednesday.

“We’re hopeful, we’ll probably be able to get him for sure some work on starting Wednesday,” Falcons head coach Dan Quinn said. “We are hoping that he’ll be back with us.”

With Coleman out, Devonta Freeman has taken over at running back. He had 193 yards from scrimmage against the Cowboys and 149 against the Texans, while scoring six touchdowns.

When Coleman returns, the Falcons still plan to split up the load at running back.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5


Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 301-302
October 8, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
129.698
Houston
128.260
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 1 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+1 1/2); Over


New Orleans @ Philadelphia

Game 461-462
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
127.016
Philadelphia
133.940
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 7
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-4 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4 1/2); Over

St. Louis @ Green Bay

Game 463-464
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
133.270
Green Bay
140.313
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 10
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+10); Under

Seattle @ Cincinnati

Game 465-466
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
139.252
Cincinnati
138.057
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+3); Under

Arizona @ Detroit

Game 467-468
October 11, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
134.621
Detroit
133.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Over

New England @ Dallas

Game 469-470
October 11, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
144.331
Dallas
131.228
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 13
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-8 1/2); Over

Denver @ Oakland

Game 471-472
October 11, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
134.175
Oakland
131.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+5); Under

Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay

Game 451-452
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
121.392
Tampa Bay
125.412
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 4
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-2 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ NY Giants

Game 473-474
October 11, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
126.583
NY Giants
140.045
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 13 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-7); Under

Buffalo @ Tennessee

Game 453-454
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
134.529
Tennessee
128.548
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 2 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-2 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 455-456
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.430
Baltimore
137.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 14
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 6 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-6 1/2); Over

Washington @ Atlanta

Game 457-458
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
129.194
Atlanta
133.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 7 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Kansas City

Game 459-460
October 11, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
123.387
Kansas City
135.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 9
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-9); Under


Pittsburgh @ San Diego

Game 475-476
October 12, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
134.600
San Diego
132.210
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+3); Over