The Bum's 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

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NFC Championship Preview

January 17, 2015


The Seahawks are back in the NFC Championship for the second straight year, seeking a return trip to the Super Bowl and looking to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since New England accomplished that feat 10 years ago. Seattle began the season taking on Green Bay on the opening Thursday night, as the Packers try to capitalize off a comeback victory in the divisional round.

Green Bay (13-4 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) erased a 21-13 deficit against Dallas last Sunday with a pair of touchdown passes by the gimpy Aaron Rodgers to eliminate the Cowboys, 26-21. The Packers failed to cover as 5 ½-point favorites, but Rodgers hooked up with rookie tight end Richard Rodgers (no relation) for the go-ahead score with nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Of course the major storyline coming from this NFC Divisional battle was the overturned call on the Dez Bryant catch in the fourth quarter on fourth down that would have given Dallas a first and goal at the one-yard line trailing by five points.

The Packers finished the season with a perfect 9-0 record at Lambeau Field, while Rodgers managed to throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in spite of a lingering left calf injury. Eddie Lacy rushed for 101 yards, while rookie wideout Davante Adams hauled in seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown to help out the injured Rodgers. Since winning Super Bowl XLV over Pittsburgh in January 2011, the Packers are just 2-2 at Lambeau Field in the postseason, which includes a pair of one-and-dones in 2013 against San Francisco and 2011 against the Giants.

The Seahawks (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) continued to roll following a 3-3 start to the season by picking up their seventh straight win in a 31-17 victory over Carolina in last Saturday’s divisional round. Seattle cashed as 13 ½-point favorites after that line jumped later in the week, as Seahawks’ backers can thank Kam Chancellor, who intercepted Cam Newton in the fourth quarter and returned it 90 yards for a touchdown to put Seattle up 31-10. The Panthers would score late, but the Seahawks beat the Panthers for the fourth time since 2012, while Russell Wilson threw three touchdown passes in the victory.

How good has Pete Carroll’s team been lately? During this seven-game hot streak, the Seahawks have covered six times, while pushing in a 10-point victory over San Francisco in Week 15. The defense is returning to its “Legion of Boom” status that carried Seattle to a Super Bowl title last season, as the Seahawks have allowed 17 points or less in five straight wins at CenturyLink Field.

Rewinding back to Week 1 of the season when these two teams met up, the Seahawks and Packers were tied at 10-10 late in the second quarter until a Marshawn Lynch nine-yard touchdown run turned the game into a rout. Seattle reeled off 19 unanswered points to grab a commanding 29-10 lead and picked up a 36-16 blowout to easily cover as 4 ½-point favorites. Seattle’s defense limited Green Bay to 255 yards, while Lynch rushed for two scores and 110 yards. The Packers weren’t a reliable underdog this season, posting an 0-3 SU/ATS record when receiving points.

Seattle has won six of seven playoff games since Wilson took over as starting quarterback back in 2012, while winning all three contests at CenturyLink Field, including a 23-17 victory over San Francisco in last January’s NFC title game. The Seahawks have lost twice to the Packers in postseason play, with both of those defeats coming to Brett Favre in Green Bay in 2003 and 2007. Green Bay has won three of five road playoff games with Rodgers at the helm since 2009 with all three of those victories coming during their championship run of 2010.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his spin on this matchup, “The Packers did struggle against some of the better defenses they faced this season, going 1-3 vs. top 10 yards-per-play defenses this season, but Seattle has not played a top 10 yards-per-play offense since losing to Dallas at home in mid-October. This is a rare matchup of a top offense vs. a top defense, a matchup that has historically favored the defensive team in Super Bowls with the Seahawks destroying the Broncos in last year’s Super Bowl as the most recent example.”

Green Bay’s struggles as a ‘dog is also a concern, as pointed out by Nelson, “The Packers have been on a terrible run as an underdog (1-10-1 ATS in the last 12) though some of those games were without Rodgers and the Seahawks have been truly dominant at home going 25-2 S/U and 20-7 ATS since 2012 but this could be a very interesting game with an intriguing line set at just above a touchdown for the home favorite.”

Where is the money going on Sunday? Executive director of Race & Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas Johnny Avello says it’s coming on the home team, “We opened Seattle at -6 ½, but the money came in on the Seahawks, as we moved the number to -7. Eventually we had to push Seattle up to -7, -120.” Avello also believes that this game can eclipse the ‘over’ of 46 ½, saying this Packers team will score in spite of Rodgers’ injury.

Seattle’s victory over San Francisco last January actually snapped a three-game losing streak by home teams in the NFC Championship, while the ‘under’ has hit in three of the previous four NFC title games.

Currently, Seattle is a 7 ½-point favorite at many books, while the total sits at a constant 46 ½. The NFC Championship kicks off at 3:05 PM EST at CenturyLink Field and can be seen on FOX.

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AFC Championship Preview

January 16, 2015


We've seen New England and Indianapolis battle for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl several times before. Something is different this time around, however.

Instead of Peyton Manning being under center for the Colts, it will be Andrew Luck making his AFC Championship Game debut. Instead of Tony Dungy on the Indy sideline, it will be Chuck Pagano squaring off against Bill Belichick in the head-coaching matchup.

While Manning is attempting to shake off yet another exit from the playoffs in the divisional round (off a bye, as a healthy home favorite), Tom Brady is fresh off guiding New England to a comeback win in an epic battle vs. Baltimore last weekend. Once again, Brady has proven to be the premier quarterback over Manning in what has been a one-sided comparison in Brady's favor throughout the careers of both great signal callers.

Not to get off on a tangent here, but can't we finally put to rest the discussion of whom has had the better career? Isn't it way past time for those that think to the contrary to acknowledge that Manning has, more than any other superstar in any sport ever, consistently played below his norm in the biggest games of his career?

There's the losing record in his postseason career. There's his 0-for-life standing against the Gators, who annually faced Manning's Tennessee team with the SEC East essentially on the line during his collegiate career from 1994-1997. Hell, even when the Colts won the Super Bowl over the Bears, Manning had a 3/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those three playoff games.

On the flip side, Brady almost always comes up huge when he's on the grandest of stages and last week was no different. New England (13-4 straight up, 12-5 against the spread) trailed for more than 51 minutes against the Ravens, twice falling behind by 14 points (14-0 and 28-14). Nevertheless, the Patriots captured a 35-31 win as seven-home favorites. Baltimore took the cash, while the 66 combined points soared 'over' the 47.5-point total.

Brady completed 33-of-50 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns, including a 23-yard scoring strike to Brandon LaFell with 5:13 remaining to provide the game-winning points. He overtook the great Joe Montana for the most TD passes in postseason history with 46. The most pivotal play of the game might have been a different TD pass for New England, though.

On a trick play offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had been saving all season long, the Patriots perfectly executed a double-pass when Brady threw backwards to Julian Edelman, who subsequently found Danny Amendola for 51 yards to tie the game at 28-28 with 4:20 left in the third quarter.

New England became the first team in NFL postseason history to prevail after twice trailing by double-digit margins. The Patriots also won with the lowest amount of rushing yards (14) of any team in the league's playoff annals.

Indianapolis (13-5 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) advanced to the NFL's version of the Final Four by virtue of a home win over Cincinnati (26-10) and last week's 24-13 victory at Denver as a 9.5-point underdog. In the win over the Bengals, Pagano's squad covered the spread as a 3.5-point home favorite. Luck connected on 31-of-44 throws for 376 yards and one TD without an interception.

T.Y. Hilton had six receptions for 103 yards vs. Cincinnati. 'Boom' Herron rushed for 56 yards and one TD on just 12 carries, in addition to making 10 catches for 85 yards. Donte Moncrief had three receptions for 54 yards, including a 36-yard TD grab that gave his team a two-possession lead in the third quarter.

The win in the Mile High City was nearly as decisive. After falling behind 7-0 in the first quarter, Indy took a 14-10 advantage to intermission thanks to a six-yard TD run by Herron and a three-yard TD pass from Luck to tight end Dwayne Allen.

Luck found Hakeem Nicks for a 15-yard TD pass to extend the lead to 21-10. Denver would get a long field goal to make it a one-possession game but with 4:06 remaining, Adam Vinatieri put the game away with a 30-yard field goal.

As of Friday afternoon, most books had New England favored by 6.5 points with a total of 54. The Westgate SuperBook opened the Patriots as seven-point 'chalk,' but it reduced the number to 6.5 on Tuesday. For first-half wagers, New England is listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 27.5. Gamblers can take the Colts on the money line for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).

During the regular season, Luck completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 4,761 yards with a 40/16 TD-INT ratio. Luck's favorite target is Hilton, who has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven TDs (Hilton might be worth a look for a prop bet to score the first TD of the game at 9/1 odds). Veteran WR Reggie Wayne hauled in 64 catches for 779 yards and two TDs. When the Colts are in the red zone, Luck looks for TEs Allen and Coby Fleener, who had eight TD grabs apiece during the regular season.

Brady threw for 4,109 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio. Gronkowski had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs, while Edelman brought down 92 receptions for 972 yards and four TDs.

Indy has compiled a 6-3 record both SU and ATS on the road this year, while New England is 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS at home. The Pats have been single-digit home 'chalk' six times, going 3-3 versus the number. The Colts are 2-1 ATS in three games as road underdogs.

Bill Belichick's teams have gone 20-8 SU in the postseason during his storied coaching career that includes five Super Bowl appearances and three wins to collect the Lombardi Trophy.

The 'over' is 10-7 overall for New England, 6-3 in its home games. However, the 'under' has cashed in five of the Patriots' last seven outings. The Pats have seen their games average a combined score of 48.8 points per game.

The 'over' is 10-7 overall for Indy, 6-3 in its road assignments. However, the 'under' has cashed in six consecutive games for the Colts, who have seen their games average a combined score of 51.7 PPG. They have had eight totals in the 50s that have been an overall wash (4-4).

Kickoff is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

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Total Talk - Championships

January 17, 2015


Divisional Playoffs Recap

Bettors saw a stalemate (2-2) last week in the totals market and it’s fair to say that there was something for everyone. The weekend began with a “never in doubt” winner as the Patriots outlasted the Ravens 35-31 in a shootout. In the nightcap, many expected a low-scoring game in the Seahawks-Panthers matchup, but the two teams converted some big plays and managed to do enough to cash the ‘over.’

On Sunday, the infamous “reversal” in the Cowboys-Packers game helped Green Bay advance but it also crushed ‘over’ tickets and kept ‘under’ winners alive. The last game of the weekend was probably the most bizarre as the Colts upended the Broncos 24-13 on the road. I’m not surprised by the result but seeing Denver score the least amount of points this past weekend is something nobody could’ve predicted.

Through eight playoff games this January, the ‘under’ owns a 4-3-1 record.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two championship games last year and is on a 6-2 (75%) run the last four seasons.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Denver 26 New England 16 57, UNDER
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, UNDER
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, UNDER
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 at Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 at Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, UNDER
2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, OVER
2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 42, UNDER
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER

Seattle played in last year’s NFC Championship, and that outcome barely stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 40 ½ points. Green Bay has played in two title games over the past seven seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 with the Packers scoring 20 and 21 points.

New England has played in the past three AFC title games and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three games. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two trips to the title game, the last coming in the 2009 season when Peyton Manning was the starting quarterback.

Sunday, January 18

Last week's trip to the betting counter didn't turn out well and losing double the action on the Carolina-Seattle matchup certainly didn’t help the bankroll, which is now in the red for about a nickel ($520) after a 1-4 mark in the Divisional Playoffs. After crunching all the numbers, I feel the books put out good numbers for the title games and both totals will be very tight. My thoughts, fearless predictions and scores are listed below. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

NFC Championship - Green Bay at Seattle

The total on this game opened at 47 and it’s dropped to 46 ½ points at the majority of betting shops as of Saturday.

In Week 1, Seattle blasted Green Bay 36-16 at home and the ‘over’ (47) cashed with a late surge (20 points) in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks ran for 207 yards while their defense held QB Aaron Rodgers to 189 passing yards.

Even though a lot has changed since the two teams met in early September, it might not make a difference when you handicap this game because the status of quarterback Aaron Rodger remains a concern. Despite dealing with a calf injury, he threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-21 win over the Cowboys last week.

For total purposes, the Packers had nine possessions and they scored five times (3TDs, 2 FGs) while running out the clock in the last one. Can Green Bay produce that effort against a better defense, on the road and with a quarterback that isn’t 100 percent?

Seattle’s defense is ranked first in points per game (15.9) and yards allowed (272.7) but some pundits are questioning the competition. It’s a very fair point and if it should be noted that Carolina put up more total yards (362-348) and rushing yards (132-100) than the Seahawks last week. The story of the game was two key interceptions by Cam Newton and Seattle’s 7-of-13 performance on third down.

When it comes down to betting totals in the playoffs, Seattle has been a tough team to figure out. Since QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll joined forces, the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in six playoff games.

Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed 16.8 PPG during this span, which makes you believe they’re a good ‘under’ look. However, Seattle has averaged 28.6 PPG and that number includes scores from Seattle’s defense and special teams. I mention that because two of the ‘over’ winners were both helped with scores from those units, which included last week’s 31-17 win over Carolina.

Fearless Prediction: I’m coming in with the ‘under’ (46.5) in the game and ‘under’ 26.5 in Seattle’s team total as well. I was a little surprised this wasn’t the late game on Sunday and I think a lot of people are overlooking the 12:05 p.m. PT start, which I believe favors Green Bay. I can’t see the Packers wanting to speed this game up due to Rodgers calf and we all know that Seattle likes to pound the football. Rain is expected in the forecast, which could be trouble. Barring a slew of defensive touchdowns and big plays, I don’t see the Seahawks scoring more than 24 points in this game. I expect a tight competitive affair with the clock running early and often.

Seattle 24 Green Bay 20

AFC Championship - Indianapolis at New England

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 53 on this matchup and it’s as high as 54 ½ points at some shops as of Saturday. If you put a lot of stock into recent head-to-head history and you believe those trends hold true this Sunday, then you’re buying New England and the ‘over’ in this matchup.

2014 – New England 42 at Indianapolis 20 – OVER 58.5
2013 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 – OVER 51.5
2012 – New England 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 – OVER 54

Since QB Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, the Patriots have dealt out some serious punishment on the youngster. He’s been picked off eight times in three games against the Patriots and can’t seem to figure out the schemes that Bill Belichick and company throw at him. Defensively, the unit has been just as worse as Luck and equally deserving of criticism.

Including the three matchups above, New England has seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 in its last 10 games against AFC South opponents. The Patriots have averaged 38 PPG during this span, which goes back to November of 2010. In case you’re wondering, New England has won all 10 of these games too.

Since Luck started in 2012 with the Colts, the team is 2-4 versus the AFC East and the ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.

The question you have as bettors is to do you toss out the recent encounters and believe Luck and the Colts have turned the corner after last week’s win against Denver or was that largely due to Denver hiding QB Peyton Manning’s injury? Thirteen points is 13 points and on the road, that’s still a very impressive effort. Even more impressive is that Colts have held four of their last five opponents to 13 or less. Similar to Seattle, many will question the competition that Indy’s defense has faced.

I believed that New England was going to score on Baltimore last week and it did (35 points) but I was surprised to see the Ravens drop 31 on the Patriots defense, which looked sharp this season especially at home. Prior to last week’s performance, New England held opponents to 16.8 PPG in its first eight games at Foxboro.

The longest pending total streak entering this Sunday lies with the Colts, who have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six games.

Fearless Prediction: The weather could get ugly in this game and that usually favors the offense. I do believe not having starting center Bryan Stork will affect New England, who only gained 14 yards rushing last week against the Ravens. The Patriots have proven they can run on Indy in the past but without Stork, those numbers might dip. I also have to believe that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows he can’t win a shootout so he’s going to bleed the clock or at least try to do so. This number seems a tad inflated to me based on past history, and I’m going against it. I’m leaning to the ‘under’ 54 in the game and the ‘under’ in the team total for both the Colts (24) and Patriots (30).

New England 27 Indianapolis 23

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Championship Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)

Packers’ Yards after the catch vs. Seahawks’ YAC allowed

Aaron Rodgers proved that a one-legged man does have a chance in an ass-kicking contest, putting on a gutsy performance in the NFC Divisional Round. Rodgers, limited by a torn calf muscle, was stellar in the second half versus the Dallas Cowboys, but his ability to move around in the pocket and the lack of zip on his deep throws were very evident. It’s why Jordy Nelson only had 22 yards on two catches last Sunday.

Since shifting to a shotgun/pistol heavy offense, the Packers have relied a lot on yards after the catch. Defenses are guarding against the deep ball, leaving underneath routes and short passes with little resistance. Green Bay is third in the NFL in YAC, tacking on an additional 6.39 yards per reception and picking up almost 54 percent of their total receiving yards after the catch.

The Seahawks can’t help by salivate when sizing up A-Rod’s wonky leg. Seattle's rush not only can close in on passers in a heartbeat - sacking Rodgers three times as well as a forced fumble for a safety in Week 1 - but this defense allowed the second fewest yards after the catch this season. Opponents mustered just 96.3 YAC a game before the Seahawks torrid-tacklers wiped them out.

Seattle was also tops in shutting down the big play, giving up only 14 passes of 25 yards or more all season. With the Packers' long bombs all but defused, thanks to Rodgers’ calf injury, the Seahawks can focus on shutting down the short looks and jumping those passing lanes. Kam Chancellor's 90-yard interception return for six points against the Panthers last week was a perfect example of this.


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)

Colts’ revved-up run defense vs. Patriots’ o-line issues

The Patriots have run up and down the Colts in their recent meetings. New England is averaging 199.7 yards on the ground over the three games against Indianapolis with Andrew Luck and its quarterback, going back to 2012. The Pats have scored a total of 12 rushing touchdowns in that span, including a monster 246-yard, four-touchdown day on the ground in Week 11’s 42-20 thumping of the Colts on the road.

Running the ball on Indianapolis may not be as easy in the AFC Championship. A big reason has to do with the Patriots playing musical chairs on the offensive line since rookie center Bryan Stork went down with a knee injury in the second half of last week’s win against Baltimore. New England is well equipped to absorb the loss of the center – the most underrated position in football betting – sliding current right guard and former center Ryan Wendell to the middle. That shift, however, leaves the right guard position up in the air and throws a wrench in Bill Belichick’s beloved jumbo set, which has squashed the Colts in past meetings.

It’s a minor move that could have a major impact, due to the fact that New England has been able to blow up defenses with runs to the right side. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Patriots averaged 5.71 Adjusted Line Yards when running off the right guard, which ranked second highest in the NFL. It’s a go-to side when the team desperately needs to pick up some ground gains and it might not be there Sunday.

On top of that, the Colts have put on their big boy pants when it comes to stuffing the run in recent weeks. The return of big-bodied defensive lineman Arthur Jones helps, especially drawing double teams and freeing up other tacklers. Jones missed the game against New England in November. Versus the Bengals in the Wild Card Round, the Colts stumped Cincinnati for only 110 yards. They locked down the Broncos to just 88 yards last weekend after Denver rumbled for an average of 145 yards per game in the final seven weeks of the season.

“We’re playing better run defense now than we ever have, so that’s a positive,” head coach Chuck Pagano told the media. “We’ve got to prepare the same way we prepared last week. We’ve got to do a better job because if we’re not able to stop the run, we’re not going to have a chance.”

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NFL

Conference Championships


Packers failing to cover on turf this season

If you're searching for an edge in capping the NFC Championship Game between Green Bay and Seattle, look no further than the turf of CenturyLink Field.

The Seahawks have long enjoyed home field advantage thanks to the vaunted "12th man," but it's the playing surface that could create a major cause for concern for Packers bettors. Green Bay has played five games on FieldTurf this season and have failed to cover in each of those matchups. The Packers went 9-2-1 against the spread in games played on grass this year.

Predictably, the reigning Super Bowl champions have fared much bettor on the artificial surface. The 'Hawks are 6-3-1 ATS on turf after squeaking out a cover over Carolina at home Saturday.

The Greek opened Seattle as 7-point home faves for the game with a total of 48.


Over/Under 271.5 passing yards for Aaron Rodgers

The NFC Championship Game between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks is fastly approaching and if you're looking to get in on some prop bet action, TopBet.eu has you covered.

Do you think Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will have a big day? If so, the sportsbook is offering a prop of Over/Under 271.5 total passing yards from the California native. The first and only time these teams met this season was in Week 1 where Richard Sherman's defense stifled Rodgers, limiting him to 189 passing yards.


Patriots have been Luck's kryptonite

The general consensus around the league is that Andrew Luck is on the path to greatness as an NFL quarterback, but there's one upper echelon team he has to get past before he can achieve that: the New England Patriots.

The Stanford product has played the Patriots three times in his career and has lost by at least 21 points each time. After topping the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round, Luck and the Colts will try and get some redemption Sunday when they face Tom Brady's crew once again in the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

In the aforementioned three contests, Indy has been outscored 144-66. Each game has gone above the total by an average of 10 points.

The Patriots finished the season at 9-7 against the spread and an Over/Under mark of 9-7. The Colts were the second best spread play during the 2014-15 campaign with a mark of 10-5-1 ATS and a 9-7 O/U record, but head into the game going Under the total in six straight outings.

New England finds themselves as touchdown favorites for the game with the total sitting at 53.5.


Seahawks beating up on weaker QBs since Week 7

The Seattle Seahawks looked like themselves once again in the middle of the 2014-15 campaign, but one particular stat shows a major difference in their past opponents compared to the offense they'll be facing off against Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Since Week 7, signal callers who have faced the reigning champs had a combined total quarterback rating of 53.1 - the third worst mark in the NFL in that stretch. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the owner of a 82.6 quarterback rating.

Rodgers himself has admitted he's far from 100 percent due to a nagging calf injury, but the California product was still able to throw for 316 yards with three touchdowns and no picks while finishing the game with a quarterback rating of 125.4.

The majority of books opened the 'Hawks as touchdown faves, but that's since been bumped up to -7.5. The total is sitting at 46.5.


Rodgers struggling on the road vs. top defenses

The Seattle Seahawks are known for their powerhouse defense and have dominated teams once again this season. According to recent trends, that could spell trouble for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.

Rodgers faced the top five scoring defenses on the road three times this year (Week 1 at Seattle, Week 3 at Detroit and Week 15 at Buffalo) and averaged just 179 yards, combining for his three worst quarterback ratings of the campaign. The California native threw two touchdowns and had three interceptions in those matchups.

Oddsmakers have set the Pack as +7.5 road underdogs for the game with the total sitting at 46.


Belichick bettors outmatched in playoff rematches

The New England Patriots are a stellar 19-8 in the postseason under Bill Belichick, but all eight of their losses have come against opponents they have played in the regular season.

During those eight regular season games New England was 5-3 straight-up and 4-4 against the spread, while averaging 30.5 points per game.

During the second meeting of the teams in the postseason, the Pats are 0-8 SU and ATS while averaging just 17.9 points.

That decrease in points, an average of 12.6 less points in the playoff games, has also increased unders for the Pats. In those eight regular season games, New England has a 6-2 over/under record compared to 4-4 in one-and-done scenarios.

The Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots opponents this week, lost to New England in Week 11 42-20. However, since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came to Indy, the team is 12-0 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in "revenge games."

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NFL Championship Sunday betting stats and trends

When it comes to the playoffs, the final four has a magical aura. Whether it’s March Madness, the college football playoffs or pro football, it’s what captivates fans the majority of the time.

The NFL’s version of the Final Four kicks off with Sunday’s Championship Games, where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets fifteen times in 48 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens’ victory over the New England Patriots at Foxboro in 2013, and the New York Giants’ win at the San Francisco 49ers in 2012, when both teams went on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the championship games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season, we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

Note: all results are either ATS (against the spread) or SU (straight up) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.

Been there, done that

Three of the four head coaches own the luxury of mentoring teams in championship games – New England’s Bill Belichick, Seattle’s Pete Carroll and the Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.

Carroll and McCarthy rode their only title game appearances to the Super Bowl, winning and covering the spread in each of their championship games.

Belichick brings a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS slate in championship affairs, including five straight pointspread failures in his last five games. He is also 0-5 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points in divisional round games.

What a rush

Despite the no-huddle, fast-break passing attacks gaining favor in the NFL these days, ask any head coach and he’ll tell you running the football is tantamount to success in the league. This is especially true during the playoffs.

It’s no coincidence that since the Giants’ 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 22 of the last 28 straight-up playoff winners rushed the ball for 100 or more yards in the victory.

In fact, teams who have managed to out-rush their opponent are 22-12 SU and 22-11-1 ATS in title games. The six teams who managed to rush for more than 165 yards (1997 Green Bay Packers, 1999 Denver Broncos, 2000 Tennessee Titans, 2006 Seattle Seahawks, 2007 Chicago Bears and 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers) won and covered all six contests.

While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only the Seahawks surrender less than 100 running yards per contest.

The Packers surrender the most yards on the ground, allowing 121.4 YPG.

It’s what’s trending

• Conference championship teams off a road win (Indianapolis) that was preceded by a home win, are 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS since 1998, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of four or more points.

• Ten of 15 championship games with a total set at 46 or more points have played over the total.

• New England is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games versus AFC South opponents.

• Seattle is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five home games versus NFC North opponents.

• Colts QB Andrew Luck is 5-1 SU and ATS as an underdog in his NFL career versus opponents with a win percentage of more than .750.

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Maybe this will help with your total handicapping:

Total Talk - Championships

January 17, 2015


Divisional Playoffs Recap

Bettors saw a stalemate (2-2) last week in the totals market and it’s fair to say that there was something for everyone. The weekend began with a “never in doubt” winner as the Patriots outlasted the Ravens 35-31 in a shootout. In the nightcap, many expected a low-scoring game in the Seahawks-Panthers matchup, but the two teams converted some big plays and managed to do enough to cash the ‘over.’

On Sunday, the infamous “reversal” in the Cowboys-Packers game helped Green Bay advance but it also crushed ‘over’ tickets and kept ‘under’ winners alive. The last game of the weekend was probably the most bizarre as the Colts upended the Broncos 24-13 on the road. I’m not surprised by the result but seeing Denver score the least amount of points this past weekend is something nobody could’ve predicted.

Through eight playoff games this January, the ‘under’ owns a 4-3-1 record.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ went 2-0 in the two championship games last year and is on a 6-2 (75%) run the last four seasons.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Denver 26 New England 16 57, UNDER
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, UNDER
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, UNDER
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 at Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 at Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY (2004-2014)
Year Result Total
2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, UNDER
2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, OVER
2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 42, UNDER
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER

Seattle played in last year’s NFC Championship, and that outcome barely stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 40 ½ points. Green Bay has played in two title games over the past seven seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 with the Packers scoring 20 and 21 points.

New England has played in the past three AFC title games and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three games. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two trips to the title game, the last coming in the 2009 season when Peyton Manning was the starting quarterback.

Sunday, January 18

Last week's trip to the betting counter didn't turn out well and losing double the action on the Carolina-Seattle matchup certainly didn’t help the bankroll, which is now in the red for about a nickel ($520) after a 1-4 mark in the Divisional Playoffs. After crunching all the numbers, I feel the books put out good numbers for the title games and both totals will be very tight. My thoughts, fearless predictions and scores are listed below. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

NFC Championship - Green Bay at Seattle

The total on this game opened at 47 and it’s dropped to 46 ½ points at the majority of betting shops as of Saturday.

In Week 1, Seattle blasted Green Bay 36-16 at home and the ‘over’ (47) cashed with a late surge (20 points) in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks ran for 207 yards while their defense held QB Aaron Rodgers to 189 passing yards.

Even though a lot has changed since the two teams met in early September, it might not make a difference when you handicap this game because the status of quarterback Aaron Rodger remains a concern. Despite dealing with a calf injury, he threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-21 win over the Cowboys last week.

For total purposes, the Packers had nine possessions and they scored five times (3TDs, 2 FGs) while running out the clock in the last one. Can Green Bay produce that effort against a better defense, on the road and with a quarterback that isn’t 100 percent?

Seattle’s defense is ranked first in points per game (15.9) and yards allowed (272.7) but some pundits are questioning the competition. It’s a very fair point and if it should be noted that Carolina put up more total yards (362-348) and rushing yards (132-100) than the Seahawks last week. The story of the game was two key interceptions by Cam Newton and Seattle’s 7-of-13 performance on third down.

When it comes down to betting totals in the playoffs, Seattle has been a tough team to figure out. Since QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll joined forces, the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in six playoff games.

Defensively, the Seahawks have allowed 16.8 PPG during this span, which makes you believe they’re a good ‘under’ look. However, Seattle has averaged 28.6 PPG and that number includes scores from Seattle’s defense and special teams. I mention that because two of the ‘over’ winners were both helped with scores from those units, which included last week’s 31-17 win over Carolina.

Fearless Prediction: I’m coming in with the ‘under’ (46.5) in the game and ‘under’ 26.5 in Seattle’s team total as well. I was a little surprised this wasn’t the late game on Sunday and I think a lot of people are overlooking the 12:05 p.m. PT start, which I believe favors Green Bay. I can’t see the Packers wanting to speed this game up due to Rodgers calf and we all know that Seattle likes to pound the football. Rain is expected in the forecast, which could be trouble. Barring a slew of defensive touchdowns and big plays, I don’t see the Seahawks scoring more than 24 points in this game. I expect a tight competitive affair with the clock running early and often.

Seattle 24 Green Bay 20

AFC Championship - Indianapolis at New England

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 53 on this matchup and it’s as high as 54 ½ points at some shops as of Saturday. If you put a lot of stock into recent head-to-head history and you believe those trends hold true this Sunday, then you’re buying New England and the ‘over’ in this matchup.

2014 – New England 42 at Indianapolis 20 – OVER 58.5
2013 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 – OVER 51.5
2012 – New England 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 – OVER 54

Since QB Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, the Patriots have dealt out some serious punishment on the youngster. He’s been picked off eight times in three games against the Patriots and can’t seem to figure out the schemes that Bill Belichick and company throw at him. Defensively, the unit has been just as worse as Luck and equally deserving of criticism.

Including the three matchups above, New England has seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 in its last 10 games against AFC South opponents. The Patriots have averaged 38 PPG during this span, which goes back to November of 2010. In case you’re wondering, New England has won all 10 of these games too.

Since Luck started in 2012 with the Colts, the team is 2-4 versus the AFC East and the ‘over’ is 4-2 in those games.

The question you have as bettors is to do you toss out the recent encounters and believe Luck and the Colts have turned the corner after last week’s win against Denver or was that largely due to Denver hiding QB Peyton Manning’s injury? Thirteen points is 13 points and on the road, that’s still a very impressive effort. Even more impressive is that Colts have held four of their last five opponents to 13 or less. Similar to Seattle, many will question the competition that Indy’s defense has faced.

I believed that New England was going to score on Baltimore last week and it did (35 points) but I was surprised to see the Ravens drop 31 on the Patriots defense, which looked sharp this season especially at home. Prior to last week’s performance, New England held opponents to 16.8 PPG in its first eight games at Foxboro.

The longest pending total streak entering this Sunday lies with the Colts, who have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six games.

Fearless Prediction: The weather could get ugly in this game and that usually favors the offense. I do believe not having starting center Bryan Stork will affect New England, who only gained 14 yards rushing last week against the Ravens. The Patriots have proven they can run on Indy in the past but without Stork, those numbers might dip. I also have to believe that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows he can’t win a shootout so he’s going to bleed the clock or at least try to do so. This number seems a tad inflated to me based on past history, and I’m going against it. I’m leaning to the ‘under’ 54 in the game and the ‘under’ in the team total for both the Colts (24) and Patriots (30).

New England 27 Indianapolis 23

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NFL

Conference Championships


Bettors still getting behind Seahawks

Bettors are still getting behind the Seattle Seahawks as we get closer to kickoff for the NFC Championship game.

The Seahawks have moved to 8-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers at most books and the number Seattle -8.5 can even be found at some places.

Seattle was a 4.5-point favorite in their meeting back in Week 1.


If Pats go run heavy, no one knows who’ll be running

Last year in the postseason, Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount bulldozed the Colts for 166 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a 20-plus-point win. Little more than two months ago, Patriots running back Jonas Gray gained 201 yards and four touchdowns in another 20-plus-point win over Indy.

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Super Bowl Opening Line Report: Patriots' performance forces a pick'em

Four weeks of preseason. Seventeen weeks of regular season. Three weeks of playoffs.

Now we’re down to the real meat and potatoes of the NFL season, with the final two contestants taking their rightful place in the Super Bowl, set for Feb. 1 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The two No. 1 seeds will square off: the defending champion Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots, with the game at pick ‘em in most spots, and Seattle perhaps a 1-point chalk elsewhere.

John Lester, senior lines manager at bookmaker.eu, installed the Seahawks as 1-point favorites, with the total at 48.5.

“We’ve got top-seeded teams meeting in the Super Bowl, so this line wasn’t terribly hard to set,” Lester said. “I don’t think you could argue with a pick ‘em, but we opened the defending champs as 1-point chalk, which coincidentally is the same number and side we used for last year’s Super Bowl spread.

“Of course, the Broncos quickly became favorites in that one.”

How Seattle got there this time, in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game at Century Link Field, was almost beyond belief.

Any reasonable bettor – hell, even an unreasonable one – who was told, “OK, the Seahawks will need to convert a fake field goal for a touchdown, successfully cover an onside kick, complete a Hail Mary of a 2-point conversion, and oh yeah, overcome five turnovers to win this game,” would have laughed and promptly bet the house on Green Bay.

Such a bettor would have still won against the spread, but would be as stunned as the Packers at the final score: Seattle 28, Green Bay 22, in overtime, with the Packers cashing as hefty 8.5-point road underdogs. The Seahawks scored two touchdowns in less than a minute late in the fourth quarter to erase a 19-7 deficit. After the second score, they made a ridiculous 2-point conversion to go up 22-19, but allowed the Packers to drive for a game-tying field goal to force the extra frame.

Then Seattle marched down the field on the strength of two long Russell Wilson passes, the second a 35-yard TD strike to Jermaine Kearse to end the game on the first possession of OT. It was as crazy a playoff game as there’s ever been in this league.

In complete contrast, the AFC Championship Game had all the shock value of a dead 9-volt battery on the tip of your tongue. Host New England, laying seven points at kickoff, led Indianapolis 14-0 in the first quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt as the Patriots rumbled, 45-7.

Patriots QB Tom Brady will be making his sixth Super Bowl appearance, seeking his first title since the 2004 season, as he’s come up empty on his last two trips. His team’s impressive effort against Indy brought the Super Bowl opening line down in a hurry.

Scott Kaminsky, general manager at offshore site TheGreek.com, said his shop actually offered Seattle at -3 in the Super Bowl before the Seahawks and Packers even kicked off. He took the line down during that game, put it back up around halftime of the Pats-Colts contest, and bettors hammered New England from that point forward.

“It’s been all New England money, and it’s down to a pick ‘em,” Kaminsky said, noting the total was holding steady at 49. “Everybody, it was like the whole world, was on the Patriots – smart players and recreational players. With every touchdown, a little more money came in. It was just like a snowball effect. So now we’ll start from pick ‘em and see what happens.”

Lester said he likes where things are lining up early, as it should lead to plenty of wagers on both sides by Super Bowl Sunday.

“I expect we’ll have a lot of different opinions on this game, which should equate to great two-way action,” Lester said. “I don’t foresee this line fluctuating much at all.”

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SBXLIX Opening Numbers

January 18, 2015


Super Bowl XLIX
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
February 1, 6:30 p.m. ET

New England Patriots (14-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-4)

Line Moves

Las Vegas Line Moves: The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Seahawks as 2 ½-point favorites over the Patriots. The line never went to 3 at the Westgate and quickly went down to pick ‘em. A total of 48 ½ was sent out at the SuperBook and its holding steady.

Follow Adjustments

Offshore Line Moves: The Seahawks opened as two-point favorites at one major offshore sportsbook, Pinnacle. The early action came in early on Seattle and the books quickly pushed the Seahawks to -3. However, as New England continued its domination of Indianapolis, the line went down to pick ‘em. The total at Pinnacle opened at 48 ½ and was bet up to 49 ½. It’s still hovering in that neighborhood.

Follow Adjustments

Path to the Super Bowl

-- Patriots beat the Ravens, 35-31 as seven-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Patriots knocked out the Colts, 45-7 as seven-point favorites in the Conference Championship

-- Seahawks dropped the Panthers, 31-14 as 13 ½-point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs
-- Seahawks rallied past the Packers, 28-22 as 8 ½-point favorites in the Conference Championship

Super Bowl History

New England has appeared in seven Super Bowls and have gone 3-4 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread. All three of the victories by the Patriots were by three points. The ‘under’ is 4-3.

PATRIOTS SUPER BOWL HISTORY
Super Bowl Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVI Giants vs. Patriots Patriots -2.5 (53) Giants 21 Patriots 17 Underdog-Under
XLII Giants vs. Patriots Patriots -12 (55) Giants 17 Patriots 14 Underdog-Under
XXIX Patriots vs. Eagles Patriots -7 (46.5) Patriots 24 Eagles 21 Underdog-Under
XXXVIII Patriots vs. Panthers Patriots -7 (37.5) Patriots 32 Panthers 29 Underdog-Over
XXXVI Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams -14 (53) Patriots 20 Rams 17 Underdog-Under
XXXI Packers vs. Patriots Packers -14 (49) Packers 35 Patriots 21 Push-Over
XX Bears vs. Patriots Bears -10 (37.5) Bears 46 Patriots 10 Favorite-Over

Seattle has played in two Super Bowls, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The ‘over/under’ is 1-1.

SEATTLE SUPER BOWL HISTORY
Super Bowl Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVIII Seahawks vs. Broncos Broncos -2.5 (47.5) Seattle 43 Denver 8 Underdog-Over
XL Steelersvs. Seahawks Steelers -4 (47) Steelers 21 Seahawks 10 Favorite-Under

Head-to-Head History (2008-2014)

2012 - Seattle (+4) 24 vs. New England 23 - OVER 42.5
2008 - New England (-7.5) 24 at Seattle 21 - OVER 43

ATS Records

New England: 10-8
Seattle: 11-7

On the Road

New England: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Seattle: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS

Total (O/U) Records

New England: 11-7
Seattle: 10-8

Recent Super Bowl Trends

History

-- Underdogs have covered six of the past seven Super Bowls, including outright victories the last three seasons by the Seahawks, Ravens and Giants.

-- Since 2002, underdogs have compiled a 10-3 record against the spread.

-- The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in the last four Super Bowls.

-- This will be the 3rd Super Bowl played in Arizona.
XLII - N.Y. Giants 17 (+13.5) New England 14
*** – Dallas 27 (-13.5) Pittsburgh 17

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Double trouble: Seahawks to face Pats

January 19, 2015

Tom Brady against ol' pal Richard Sherman and the rest of the best defense in the NFL.

Russell Wilson against Darrelle Revis, former teammate Brandon Browner and whatever schemes Bill Belichick dreams up.

Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount and their tough-to-tackle running styles.

The occasional well-designed - and well-executed - trick play.

There is a lot to look forward to when Wilson's Seattle Seahawks, the defending champions, take on Brady's New England Patriots, the dominant franchise of the 2000s, in the Super Bowl at Glendale, Arizona, on Feb. 1. Seattle can become the first team to win consecutive NFL championships since Brady, Belichick and Co. did it a decade ago.

In nearly a half-century of Super Bowls - this will be the 49th - there's never been this long a stretch without a repeat champion.

On Super Sunday last year, the Seahawks beat Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos 43-8.

After Seattle (14-4) and New England (14-4) won their conference title games at home Sunday, some Las Vegas sports books had the Seahawks - heading to the franchise's third Super Bowl - as 1-point favorites, while others made the game a pick 'em.

New England reached its eighth Super Bowl, equaling the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers for most in league history. It's the sixth time in the past 14 years the Patriots have made it this far; they won trophies after the 2001, 2003 and 2004 seasons.

But they lost in their past two Super Bowl appearances, after the 2007 and 2011 seasons, both times against Eli Manning and the New York Giants.

''It's hard to compare, year to year. I think every situation's different,'' the 37-year-old Brady said. ''We've had a lot of good teams in the past. This one is going to have to win a very important game to kind of leave our legacy.''

Here are some things to know about the Super Bowl:

YOU MAD BRO?: The last time these two teams met was in October 2012, when Wilson was a rookie who threw for the go-ahead touchdown with less than 90 seconds left, Sherman was not yet as highly regarded for his cornerback play - or as widely known for his confidence - but intercepted Brady, and Seattle won 24-23. That game was best known for what happened afterward: Sherman's taunting tweet aimed at Brady. Something else to think about: Will Sherman's injured left elbow be OK in two weeks?

SLOW STARTS, FAST FINISHES: Neither of these teams looked all that good early in the season. The Seahawks started 3-3, making preseason talk of a dynasty seem silly; the Patriots began 2-2, and folks were saying Brady was washed up after a 41-14 loss at Kansas City on Sept. 29. So much for any of that. Seattle is now on an eight-game winning streak, including Sunday's stirring 28-22 overtime victory over Green Bay for the NFC championship after trailing 16-0. New England, meanwhile, won 10 of 11 games until dropping its meaningless regular-season finale. ''You don't want to judge your team after three or four games into the season,'' Brady said after beating Indianapolis 45-7 for the AFC title, ''and it's important not to ride the roller coaster.''

THE QBS: Will Brady win his fourth Lombardi Trophy? Will Wilson win his second? Brady owns all sorts of postseason QB records, including 49 touchdown passes and six trips to the Super Bowl. Wilson, meanwhile, is 10-0 for his career in games against quarterbacks who own at least one ring - but only because he overcame four interceptions and a halftime quarterback rating of zero to rally Seattle in the closing minutes against Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. ''I just continue to believe in our guys,'' said Wilson, who wept after beating Green Bay.

THE COACHES: New England's Belichick owns a record 21 postseason wins. Seattle's Pete Carroll preceded Belichick as New England's coach, then was a national title-winning college coach at Southern California, before returning to the pros. Both come from defensive backgrounds. Neither is afraid to call a trick play. Punter Jon Ryan's touchdown pass on a fake field goal for Seattle's first points Sunday. One of Brady's three TD tosses against the Colts went to left tackle Nate Solder. A week earlier, receiver Julian Edelman threw a 51-yard pass.

LYNCH'S SILENT TREATMENT: Lynch, who ran for 157 yards against the Packers, has been docked $100,000 by the NFL for violating the league's media policy, making a habit of either ignoring reporters entirely or offering one-word answers. Will he show at the annual circus that is Super Bowl media day?

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Super Bowl History

The Super Bowl is the championship for the National Football League (NFL), which is America’s superior football league. The game pits the winner of two conferences, the National Football Conference (NFC) against the American Football Conference (AFC) in the finale. This is an annual event that started in 1967 and is usually played on the first Sunday in February.

The NFC owns a 26-22 edge over the AFC in the first 48 Super Bowl matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers both have five.

The Super Bowl is the most gambled-on sporting event in the United States. Favorites have gone 33-15 straight up and 26-18-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 24-23. The biggest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The point-spread rarely comes into play with the Super Bowl, meaning you just have to pick the winner of the game. There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976.

Oddsmakers were on the money with their numbers in two Super Bowls, which produced pushes or ties. Those matchups took place in 1997 and 2000.

The most infamous pro football finale for oddsmakers was Super Bowl XIII. The 13th installment saw the Steelers open as 4 ½-point favorites over the Cowboys and the number dropped to 3 ½-points with early action on the Cowboys. Even though Dallas lost the game 35-31 to Pittsburgh, early bettors cashed with the 4 ½-points and Steelers backers won on the closing line. To this day, SBXIII is considered “Black Sunday” for the sportsbooks.

SUPER BOWL (1967-2014)

Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XLVIII 2014 East Rutherford, NJ Seattle vs. Denver Denver -2.5 (47.5) Seattle 43 Denver 8 Underdog-Over
XLVII 2013 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Baltimore San Francisco -4.5 (48) Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31 Underdog-Over
XLVI 2012 Indianapolis, IN N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -2.5 (53) N.Y. Giants 21 New England 17 Underdog-Under
XLV 2011 Arlington, TX Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh Green Bay -3 (45) Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25 Favorite-Over
XLIV 2010 Miami, FL New Orleans vs. Indianapolis Indianapolis -5 (57) New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17 Underdog-Under
XLIII 2009 Tampa, FL Pittsburgh vs. Arizona Pittsburgh -7 (46) Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 23 Underdog-Over
XLII 2008 Glendale, AZ N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -12 (55) N.Y. Giants 17 New England 14 Underdog-Under
XLI 2007 Miami, FL Indianapolis vs. Chicago Indianapolis -7 (47) Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17 Favorite-Under
XL 2006 Detroit, MI Pittsburgh vs. Seattle Pittsburgh -4 (47) Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10 Favorite-Under
XXIX 2005 Jacksonville, FL New England vs. Philadelphia New England -7 (46.5) New England 24 Philadelphia 21 Underdog-Under
XXXVIII 2004 Houston, TX New England vs. Carolina New England -7 (37.5) New England 32 Carolina 29 Underdog-Over
XXXVII 2003 San Diego, CA Tampa Bay vs. Oakland Oakland -4 (44) Tampa Bay 48 Oakland 21 Underdog-Over
XXXVI 2002 New Orleans, LA New England vs. St. Louis St. Louis -14 (53) New England 20 St. Louis 17 Underdog-Under
XXXV 2001 Tampa, FL Baltimore vs. N.Y. Giants Baltimore -3 (33) Baltimore 34 N.Y. Giants 7 Favorite-Over
XXXIV 2000 Atlanta, GA St. Louis vs. Tennessee St. Louis -7 (45) St. Louis 23 Tennessee 16 Push-Under
XXXIII 1999 Miami, FL Denver vs. Atlanta Denver -7.5 (52.5) Denver 34 Atlanta 19 Favorite-Over
XXXII 1998 San Diego, CA Denver vs. Green Bay Green Bay -11 (49) Denver 31 Green Bay 24 Underdog-Over
XXXI 1997 New Orleans, LA Green Bay vs. New England Green Bay -14 (49) Green Bay 35 New England 21 Push-Over
*** 1996 Tempe, AZ Dallas vs. Pittsburgh Dallas -13.5 (51) Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17 Underdog-Under
XXIX 1995 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. San Diego San Francisco -18.5 San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 Favorite-Over
XXVIII 1994 Atlanta, GA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -10.5 (50.5) Dallas 30 Buffalo 13 Favorite-Under
XXVII 1993 Pasadena, CA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -6.5 (44.5) Dallas 52 Buffalo 17 Favorite-Over
XXVI 1992 Minneapolis, MN Washington vs. Buffalo Washington -7 (49) Washington 37 Buffalo 24 Favorite-Over
XXV 1991 Tampa, FL N.Y. Giants vs. Buffalo Buffalo -7 (40.5) N.Y. Giants 20 Buffalo 19 Underdog-Under
XXIV 1990 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Denver San Francisco -12 (48) San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Favorite-Over
XXIII 1989 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -7 (48) San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16 Underdog-Under
XXII 1988 San Diego, CA Washington vs. Denver Denver -3 (47) Washington 42 Denver 10 Underdog-Over
XXI 1987 Pasadena, CA N.Y. Giants vs. Denver N.Y. Giants -9.5 (40) N.Y. Giants 39 Denver 20 Favorite-Over
XX 1986 New Orleans, LA Chicago vs. New England Chicago -10 (37.5) Chicago 46 New England 10 Favorite-Over
XIX 1985 Stanford, CA San Francisco vs. Miami San Francisco -3.5 San Francisco 38 Miami 16 Favortie-Over
XVIII 1984 Tampa, FL L.A. Raiders vs. Washington Washington -3 (48) L.A. 38 Washington 9 Favorite-Under
XVII 1983 Pasadena, CA Washington vs. Miami Miami -3 (36.5) Washington 27 Miami 17 Underdog-Over
XVI 1982 Pontiac, MI San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -1 (48) San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21 Favorite-Under
XV 1981 New Orleans, LA Oakland vs. Philadelphia Philadelphia -3 (37.5) Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 Underdog-Under
XIV 1980 Pasadena, CA Pittsburgh vs. L.A. Rams Pittsburgh -10.5 (36) Pittsburgh 31 L.A. Rams 19 Favorite-Over
XIII 1979 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -3.5 (37) Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31 Favorite-Over
XII 1978 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Denver Dallas -6 (39) Dallas 27 Denver 10 Favorite-Under
XI 1977 Pasadena, CA Oakland vs. Minnesota Oakland -4 (38) Oakland 34 Minnesota 14 Favorite-Over
X 1976 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -7 (36) Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17 Underdog-Over
IX 1975 New Orleans, LA Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota Pittsburgh -3 (33) Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 Favorite-Under
VIII 1974 Houston, TX Miami vs. Minnesota Miami -6.5 (33) Miami 24 Minnesota 7 Favorite-Under
VII 1973 Los Angeles, CA Miami vs. Washington Miami -1 (33) Miami 14 Washington 7 Favorite-Under
VI 1972 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Miami Dallas -6 (34) Dallas 24 Miami 3 Favorite-Under
V 1971 Miami, FL Baltimore vs. Dallas Baltimore -2.5 (36) Baltimore 16 Dallas 13 Favorite-Under
IV 1970 New Orleans, LA Kansas City vs. Minnesota Minnesota -12 (39) Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Underdog-Under
III 1969 Miami, FL N.Y. Jets vs. Baltimore Baltimore -18 (40) N.Y. Jets 16 Baltimore 7 Underdog-Under
II 1968 Miami, FL Green Bay vs. Oakland Green Bay -13.5 (43) Green Bay 33 Oakland 14 Favorite-Over
I 1967 Los Angeles, CA Green Bay vs. Kansas City Green Bay -14 (N/A) Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10 Favorite

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'Hawks hurt sportsbooks

January 19, 2015

For the second straight season, both top seeds from each conference advanced to the Super Bowl. However, each team took different routes to get there on Sunday, as the Patriots blew out the Colts, while the Seahawks pulled off one of the biggest shocking comebacks in recent memory by knocking off the Packers in overtime. How did the books fare on Sunday with these results?

We caught up with Johnny Avello, the executive director of Race and Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, who had plenty of reaction to the Sunday action. “The Patriots winning definitely hurt us, as there was no major Colts’ money that came in on Saturday and Sunday. Much of the sharp money came in early on Indianapolis +7, which coincided with the injury to Patriots’ rookie center Bryan Stork.”

Obviously the biggest surprise came in Seattle on many levels. The Packers had an opportunity to win on the moneyline at +325 (Bet $100 to win $325), leading 19-7 with less than three minutes to go. The ‘under’ of 45 seemed very safe as well, even after Seattle’s touchdown to cut the deficit to 19-14. But following an improbable touchdown by the Seahawks to take a 22-19 advantage with 90 seconds left, ‘under’ bets went to die on a Mason Crosby 48-yard field goal to force overtime. Russell Wilson’s touchdown hookup with Jermaine Kearse less than four minutes into the extra session killed Green Bay moneyline bets, but the Packers still cashed as 8 ½-point underdogs.

Which was a worse beat for the sportsbooks – Seattle winning outright or the ‘over’ cashing late? Avello says neither was good for the books, but the Seahawks winning late definitely triggered moneyline bets and teasers. Two teasers that the Wynn provided that cashed were basically a pick-em on the Patriots and Seahawks at -150 odds (Bet $150 to win $100) and Packers +13 ½ and Patriots +½ at -135 odds (Bet $135 to win $100).

Looking ahead to Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona on February 1, the Seahawks opened as 2 ½-point favorites at the Wynn. However, Avello points out that public money on the Patriots came in to move the line to New England -1. Currently, the game is listed at pick-em at many books 24 hours after the contest was posted on the board. “My power ratings have Seattle at 96 and New England at 92, as the right number was Seattle -3. We made no slight adjustments and thought Seattle 2 ½ was the right number to open at,” Avello says.

If the Packers would have won, Avello would have made New England -1 in the Super Bowl. When the NFC/AFC Super Bowl prop came out months ago, the NFC was listed as a 2 ½ to 3-point favorite. The adjustment, according to Avello, moved a half-point down to 2 ½.

Plenty of bets came in on Sunday following the release of the number for the Super Bowl, while the Wynn is offering -105 juice both ways on the game until Sunday January 25. Starting next Monday January 26 through Super Bowl Sunday, the Wynn will go back to the standard -110 juice on the contest.

This will be the third Super Bowl played in Arizona and the second at University of Phoenix Stadium. Super Bowl *** between the Cowboys and Steelers at Sun Devil Stadium following the 1995 season saw Dallas capture its third title in four years with a 27-17 triumph, but Pittsburgh covered as 13 ½-point underdogs while the ‘under’ of 51 hit. Twelve years later in Glendale, New England’s run at a 19-0 season went up in flames in a 17-14 loss to the Giants as 12-point favorites in Super Bowl XLII, while another ‘under’ of 55 easily cashed.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl line watch: What happened to the 2.5 points?

Like Yogi Berra was purported to have said: When you come to the fork in the road, take it.

Super Bowl betting season is over, and for the first time in history of SB betting lines, there is no money line. All bettors need to do is pick the winner in this one, because oddsmakers have determined that, for now anyway, no one will get or give points when the teams kick off in Arizona in about two weeks.

The big question is what happened to 2.5 points.

Before the AFC and NFC championship games were played on Sunday, there was word that a Green Bay-New England Super Bowl would be a pick ‘em, but if the matchup was Seahawks-Patriots, then Seattle would be laying out 2.5 to New England backers.

That all apparently changed on Sunday, when the Seahawks -- who had been kicking hiney and taking names down the stretch and into the playoffs – for some reason looked very beatable for more than three periods at home against the Packers.

GB’s eventual choke which opened to the door for Seattle to get to the Super Bowl a second straight season perhaps gave oddsmakers pause. And while offshores and Vegas books were still digesting the impact of Seattle’s near-death experience in the rain in the Northwest, the Patriots further muddied the waters by putting the hammer to the Colts in also-sopping Foxboro.

The Pats were no longer the Pats who rose from the ashes against the Ravens the week before when they had to perform their own Great Escape. They were the 2007 Belichick-Brady Patriots who took no prisoners.

What were oddsmakers to do? The Seattle-is-a-bit-better narrative had been crushed in a six-hour Sunday time frame, and if a 2.5-point line had been survived NE’s 45-7 win, there would have been riots in the streets of Vegas as bettors flocked to books to grab the points.

That would have mandated a quick line adjustment as books tried to limit overexposure. Best to bite the bullet quickly, so the result was a split-the-baby line in which no one gets or gives.

Somewhere Yogi is smiling.

[StarDust Bum]

Advantage - Seattle

January 28, 2015

The Seahawks are back in the Super Bowl for the second straight season, looking to become the first team to win consecutive titles since the Patriots accomplished that feat in 2004 and 2005. Seattle is riding an eight-game winning streak heading into Sunday, as Pete Carroll’s squad never had a hot stretch of that length last season (longest streak was seven consecutive victories).

Last season, the Seahawks put together a 13-3 record en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title, as Seattle dropped off by just one game to become the first team in 10 years (Patriots) to win back-to-back conference championships. Since a 3-3 start this season, the Seahawks have won 11 of their past 12 games, while limiting nine teams to 17 points or fewer. For the exception of a Week 11 setback at Kansas City, Seattle’s defense has yielded 32 points in its last four road victories.

Prior to the postseason, the Seahawks faced just one playoff team in the final nine weeks, drubbing the rival Cardinals twice, while holding them to nine points. The Seahawks needed to put together a massive rally to stun the Packers in the NFC Championship, but Seattle improved to 6-1 in the postseason with Russell Wilson at quarterback, including a 2-1 mark away from CenturyLink Field. Seattle won seven of eight games against teams that made the postseason, with the lone loss coming to Dallas in Week 6 as 10-point home favorites.

The Seahawks are 10-3 against AFC opponents since 2012, although two of those losses came this season on the road at Kansas City and San Diego. Seattle rallied past New England in its previous meeting in 2012 at CenturyLink Field, 24-23, scoring two touchdowns in the final 7:30 minutes to erase a 23-10 deficit. Amazingly, Wilson is 10-0 in his career against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (2-0 vs. Peyton Manning; 3-0 vs. Aaron Rodgers; 1-0 vs. Tom Brady; 2-0 vs. Eli Manning; 2-0 vs. Drew Brees).

The Seahawks owned the best rushing attack in the NFL this season, averaging 172.6 yards per game, a 25-yard separation from the second-best team in that category (Dallas). Although Marshawn Lynch had a majority of the yards (1,306), Wilson rushed for 849 yards and eight touchdowns, which is tops in both categories among quarterbacks this season. Seattle also dominated the run game from the defensive side by ranking third in yards allowed per game on the ground at 81.5. In its final three road contests of the season, the Seahawks yielded 64 rushing yards at San Francisco, 57 at Philadelphia, and 29 at Arizona.

The Patriots struggled to limit some of the league's top running backs this season. Looking back at the 13 rushers who eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground in 2014, New England's defense faced six of them. Twice, the Pats yielded at least 100 yards (129 to Baltimore's Justin Forsett and 114 to Chicago's Matt Forte), while Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs racked up 92 yards and a touchdown in a blowout of New England back in September. Packers' running back Eddie Lacy rushed for 98 yards in a win over the Patriots, while Miami's Lamar Miller combined to rush for 107 yards in two matchups with New England.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his reasoning for backing the NFC champs, “The statistics pretty clearly favor the Seahawks in the Super Bowl if you just look at the numbers and ignore the legacy of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Seattle is about a half-yard per play superior to New England on both offense and defense, despite the perception that the Patriots are the better offensive team. The Seahawks gain 5.2 yards per carry on the ground while featuring an elite run defense that allows just 3.6 yards per rush, numbers that are vastly superior to what New England has posted this season. New England played a tougher schedule in terms of defensive opposition, but Seattle played a very tough slate in terms of the travel and scheduling as well as facing stronger opposition on the offensive end despite still being the league’s best defense.”

Last season, both the Seahawks and Broncos had to deal with the uncertainty of weather in New Jersey. This time around, Nelson points out the Seahawks have that advantage this week, “Seattle will also get to play on the west coast in a familiar venue while taking on a New England squad that has faced distractions all week. Last season’s Broncos team was a far more productive team than this year’s Patriots squad and they were completely shut down in the Super Bowl by Seattle. While repeat blowout performance seems unlikely, Seattle seems likely to retain the crown and push the Patriots to what will be a fifth straight ATS Super Bowl defeat for a franchise that is consistently overvalued in the postseason, now just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.”

The Patriots have never covered in a Super Bowl as a favorite, losing outright to the Giants twice, while holding off the Panthers and Eagles. The only cover in the Super Bowl for New England in the Brady/Belichick era came in their first appearance in 2001, stunning the Rams as 14-point ‘dogs. The feather in the cap for the Seahawks is the 10-1 SU/ATS record Wilson owns in the underdog role, with the only loss coming in the final minute at Detroit in October 2012.