The Bum's 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

[StarDust Bum]

Advantage - New England

January 29, 2015

The Patriots are playing in their sixth Super Bowl in 14 years, the most appearances in NFL history in a 15-year span or less. New England finished the regular season with at least 12 wins for the fifth straight season, while capturing its 11th AFC East title in the last 12 years. Now, the Bill Belichick’s squad will try to turn around their recent misfortune in a pair of Super Bowl losses to the Giants by claiming the franchise’s fourth Super Bowl title.

New England’s offense averaged the fourth-most points per game this season at 29.3, nearly a two-point improvement from 2013. The Pats faced seven of the top 10 passing defenses in the league, as Tom Brady and the offense put up impressive numbers. For the exception of the Week 4 clunker at Kansas City in which Brady was limited to 159 yards passing, the Pro Bowler torched Buffalo (361 yards) and San Diego (317 yards) on the road, both top four passing defenses. The Seahawks rank first in the league in this category, but down the stretch they faced Drew Stanton, a down Colin Kaepernick twice, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, and Shaun Hill.

The Patriots’ offensive line gave Brady plenty of time this season, as he was sacked only 26 times, which is tied for fourth-fewest in the league. On the flip side, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson was taken down 42 times, which ranked 20th in the NFL. Brady saw improvement in this category from 2013, when he was sacked 40 times. Seattle is known for its strong secondary, as it didn’t have as much success up front with only 37 sacks, which was 20th best in the league.

New England won six of seven games against playoff teams this season, with the lone blemish coming at Green Bay in Week 13 in a 26-21 setback. The Patriots trailed the Packers, 16-14 late in the second quarter, but Aaron Rodgers connected with Jordy Nelson on a 45-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the half to give Green Bay a 23-14 advantage. That loss was the only one against an NFC foe, as the Patriots won three of four times in interconference action. In the six victories over playoff competition, New England eclipsed the 34-point mark each time, including at least 42 points against three AFC squads (Indianapolis twice, Cincinnati, and Denver).

The Pats are listed as in the pointspread range from pick-em to a 3 ½-point favorite in the playoffs for only the sixth time in the Brady/Belichick era, going 2-2-1 ATS. New England opened as short underdogs when the line was released following its victory over Indianapolis in the AFC title game, as the Pats are 10-4 ATS when receiving points since 2011.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his spin on the Seahawks playing with smoke and mirrors during their eight-game winning streak, “Seattle has not looked very impressive in two playoff wins despite the great home field edge and they faced very poor competition down the stretch in the dominant finish to the regular season. Carolina out-gained the Seahawks in the divisional round in what was a much closer game than the final four and the win over Green Bay was little to do with what Seattle did right, rather it was one of the great NFL playoff chokes in history as the Packers controlled nearly the entire game, but continually failed in several opportunities to close out the game.”

Nelson points out several things have changed with the Seahawks from last season’s Super Bowl run, “Statistically, Seattle was a slightly worse team than last season on both sides of the ball and that was a year with a much stronger NFC West division. Seattle won’t be able to afford a slow start in this matchup like they have had in the first two playoff wins and the Seahawks are unlikely to get 16 points from defense and special teams plays as they did in the Super Bowl last season as New England was one of the few teams with a better turnover margin than Seattle. Bet against the Patriots in a potentially close game at your own peril as New England is on a 20-4 ATS run in games with a spread in between -3 and +3.”

The last time the Seahawks and Patriots met up came back in 2012 at CenturyLink Field in Wilson’s rookie season. New England jumped out to a 23-10 advantage before Seattle rallied for a 24-23 victory by scoring a pair of touchdowns in the final seven minutes of regulation. The Pats outgained the Seahawks, 475-368, while New England ran 30 more plays than Seattle (85-55). A positive coming from the defensive side for the Pats was limiting Marshawn Lynch to 41 yards on 15 carries. In five career game against New England (dating back to his days with Buffalo), Lynch has averaged 53 yards a game, as his personal best is 79 yards, which came back in September 2010.

The Seahawks’ defense couldn’t contain tight ends this season, allowing 11 touchdowns to players at that position, which is the third-most given up by any team. Following a slow start, Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski picked up at least 68 yards in 10 of his final 11 regular season games, while posting 108 yards in the divisional playoff win over Baltimore. Gronkowski scored 14 touchdowns this season, but he racked up exactly one touchdown in 11 games, meaning it’s a good bet he may get in the end zone on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

Advantage - Over

January 28, 2015


Before we start breaking down the total for Super Bowl XLIX for Sunday I wanted to recap the postseason that I would sum up as bizarre for total bettors.

Based on our closing consensus numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 in the first 10 games.

Looking at those results cloer, it's safe to say that there were three clear-cut winners:

Cincinnati 10 Indianapolis 26 (UNDER 47)
Baltimore 31 New England 35 (OVER 47.5)
Indianapolis 24 Denver 13 (UNDER 53.5)

When I say clear-cut, these results were looking comfortable in the fourth quarter. When you look at the other seven, you can make solid arguments that outcomes could’ve been flip-flopped.

Some bettors, who like to shop, may’ve earned wins, losses or pushes on two games:

Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 17 (Total ranged from 45 to 47.5) Line Moves
New England 45 Indianapolis 7 (Total ranged from 51.5 to 54) Line Moves

The remaining five games could've went either way and there were a couple outcomes that were tough to watch. The worst beat went to bettors who had the ‘under’ in the NFC Championship, followed by those who had the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoff game between the Cowboys and Packers.

As always, we apologize to those who suffered losses and congratulate the winners!

For Sunday’s finale between the Seahawks and Patriots, oddsmakers sent out a total of 49 and most betting shops are now serving 47 ½ with a few holding 48.

I believe you can make solid arguments for both the ‘over’ and the ‘under’ for SBXLIX and that’s what I’m going to do.

With assistance from VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.

CD’s Angles

-- New England averaged 30.4 points per game, which helped the ‘over’ go 9-7 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs.

-- The Patriots lost four games this season. If you toss out the 17-9 meaningless setback to Buffalo in Week 17 when they rested starters, the other three losses were:

Miami 33 vs. New England 20
Kansas City 41 vs. New England 14
Green Bay 26 vs. New England 21

-- If you delve into these road losses, you’ll see that New England gave up 20 scores (10 FGs, 10 TDs) and if their opponents were very efficient and not for nothing, the margins could’ve been much worse. It’s fair to say that the blueprint for beating the Patriots outright is to score in bunches.

-- Is Seattle’s defense that great or are they a product of playing weak quarterbacks? Cam Newton, who is average, led the Panthers to three scores against Seattle and the Divisional Playoffs, plus he was picked off in the red zone. Even though Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay didn’t rack up a ton of yards (306), the Packers did have six scores (5 FGs, 1 TD) in their loss.

-- Other legit QBs that had success against the Seahawks this season were Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. They both helped the Chargers and Cowboys post 30 points on Seattle during the regular season, more importantly each team had six scores (3 FGs, 3 TDs).

-- The key to stopping Seattle’s offense is to attack the ground game and apply pressure on QB Russell Wilson. That’s much easier said than done and you should make a note that New England’s defense has zero sacks recorded in its two playoff games.

-- In its last nine games against the AFC, Seattle has averaged 28.4 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 7-2.

-- In four games against the NFC North this season, New England scored 30, 51, 34 and 21 points.

-- Bill Belichick is often praised for his defensive schemes but his club hasn’t been exactly super outside of Foxboro in the postseason. The defense has given up an average of 26 PPG in true road playoff games and 21 PPG in five Super Bowls.

-- In seven postseason games with Wilson at QB, the Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 which includes a run of three straight ‘over’ tickets. The team has scored 102 points during the latest streak, which was helped with 23 points coming from defense and special teams. And you could push that number to 30 if you include the fake field goal TD by Seattle against Green Bay in this year’s NFC Championship. As you all know, defensive and special team scores always help ‘over’ tickets.

-- During the aformentioned span, the Seahawks have played three games outside of the state of Washington and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. Last year’s Super Bowl was one winning ticket and the other came in Wilson’s rookie season when the Seahawks came up short (30-28) to the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. The ‘Hawks have scored 24, 28 and 43 in these games.

-- In their most recent head-to-head clash, Seattle defeated New England 24-23 at home on Oct. 12, 2012 and the combined 47 points slid ‘over’ the closing total of 42 ½. I remember this game like it was yesterday and I won with the ‘over’ but was frustrated because the Patriots left so many points off the board. Fortunately I cashed due to a late heave by Wilson, but make a note that New England did move the ball all day (475 yards) on this Seattle unit and some might believe this year’s defensive group is weaker.

Expert Analysis - VI Handicapper Joe Nelson

Generally the belief is that Seattle’s defense this season has not been as strong as last season’s championship squad despite leading the league in most defensive categories again. In the regular season the Seahawks did allow 23 more points while the offense also scored 23 fewer points compared with the 2013 regular season numbers.

New England’s offense could be even stronger than the numbers suggest however as in 18 games the Patriots have faced eight top 10 defensive teams in yards-per-play. The Patriots did face below average offenses on the season playing in the AFC East, only facing five teams all season that wound up in the league’s top 10 in yards-per-play on offense as the Patriots might not be as strong as the numbers suggest on defense.

The defensive figures for Seattle may also be overrated as the Packers were the first team Seattle faced since Week 6 that finished in the top 10 of the league’s offensive yards-per-play rankings. Seattle also faced a run of marginal quarterbacks late in the season in the dominant late season run, catching back-up quarterbacks in four of the final six regular season games when the defense allowed just 39 points.

It wasn’t always pretty and Seattle certainly caught some breaks but the Seahawks have posted 59 points in two playoff wins and in half of Seattle’s games this season they have scored at least 26 points. The ‘over’ is 10-8 in Seattle games this season though this will be the highest total of the season for Seahawks game.

The ‘over’ is 10-7-1 in New England games though the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 on the closing lines in the last eight games for the Patriots. Half of the games for the Patriots have featured a total of 48 or higher this season with the ‘over’ going 5-3-1 in those games.

The only semi-recent meeting between these teams was in 2012 with Seattle winning 24-23 at home with a late comeback. The Patriots had more than 100 more yards and nine more 1st downs in the loss but settled for several field goals.

The big play potential for both teams on both sides of the ball could help to elevate the scoring and should this game get one-sided early both teams have proven capable of putting together late scoring drives.

[StarDust Bum]

Advantage - Under

January 29, 2015

In my first Total Talk piece for Super Bowl XLIX, I provided plenty of betting angles that supported the ‘over’ for the matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots.

For this installment, I’ll offer up my quick thoughts on the ‘under’ and also provide handicapping thoughts from VegasInsider.com NFL experts Paul Bovi and Joe Nelson.

Earlier this week I spoke to Johnny Avello, Executive Director of Race & Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas and asked him for his thoughts on the total for SBXLIX.

He said, “We received heavy ‘under’ action so far. I think bettors started to realize that Seattle’s defense is rated No. 1 and that usually prevails in the Super Bowl. Most believe that the Patriots will have trouble scoring with this unit. We opened 49 ½ and we’re currently at 48, which I believe is a good number.”

According to Avello, he believes that they’ll adjust accordingly when the visitors arrive this weekend. “We only booked 10 percent of our handle right now and should receive much more attention come Friday, Saturday and Sunday,” explained Avello.

In last year’s Super Bowl, most shops opened the total between the Broncos and Seahawks at 48 ½ points and it closed at 47 ½ points, which is very similar to this year’s numbers.

CD’s Angles

-- Historically, this will be the third Super Bowl played in Arizona. The ‘under’ cashed in the first two games.

Dallas 27 vs. Pittsburgh 17 (UNDER 51)
N.Y. Giants 17 vs. New England 14 (UNDER 55)

-- New England has failed to live up to its offensive expectations in each of its last two Super Bowl appearances, scoring 17 in each game.

-- Seattle has only played in two Super Bowls, allowing 21 points in SBXL (2006) to Pittsburgh and eight points to Denver last year. For those that forget, the Broncos scored on the final play of the third quarter and two of the Steelers three touchdowns came on 43 and 75-yard plays.

-- Despite leading the league in scoring, New England’s number dropped significantly on the road (25.5 PPG) compared to playing at home (34.4 PPG).

-- The Patriots have played four of their last five games at Foxboro. Prior to that run at home, New England watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in its final three road games of the regular season.

-- Similar to New England, the Seahawks last road game came on Dec. 21. In its last three road games, Seattle allowed a combined 23 points which helped the ‘under’ produce a 2-1 mark.

-- Seattle lead the league in points allowed (16.3 PPG) and New England (17.2 PPG) was ranked sixth in defensive scoring.

-- The most impressive defensive stat I found on Seattle was related to its second-half scoring. In the last eight games, the Seahawks have allowed 23 combined points in the second half. They’ve also won all eight games (7-1 ATS) and cashed 2nd-half wagers in each contest as well.

-- As far as tempo goes, Seattle plays to an ‘under’ pace. The Seahawks are ranked second in rushing attempts (32.7) and last in passing attempts (28.1).

-- The highest total Seattle has seen all season was 48, which occurred twice and the ‘under’ cashed in both games.

Seahawks 26 vs. Broncos 20 (UNDER 48)
Seahawks 24 vs. Eagles 14 (UNDER 48)

-- Under the Brady-Belichick regime, the Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 17-11 in the postseason. That includes a 4-1 record to the ‘under’ in five Super Bowl appearances with the pair as well.

-- Ironically, the one ‘over’ that cashed was the lowest total (38) the Patriots have seen in the finale. New England outlasted Carolina 32-29 in SBXXXVIII (2004) in a very bizarre game that had two scoreless quarters and two other quarters that saw 24 and 37 points.

Expert Analysis – VI Handicapper Paul Bovi

The oddsmakers makes a mistake on the opening number, which was as high as 49 ½ at some betting shops. The fair value for this matchup is 46 ½ and 47 points. I like to analyze head-to-head meetings, when available, and there is only one for this game. There are some key players missing for both offensive units for this game, in particular Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Danny Woodhead for New England, plus Seattle doesn’t have wide receivers Golden Tate or Sidney Rice anymore. Sticking with the last encounter between the pair, I believe Tom Brady’s numbers (395 passing yards) are a tad overstated for that game, considering 5 of his completions went for 146 yards.

Expert Analysis – VI Handicapper Joe Nelson

Last season’s Super Bowl featuring Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos slipped just ‘over’ the total with 51 points scored on a total that closed at 47, falling from earlier numbers closer to 48. 16 points came outside of offensive scoring plays with the early safety and Seattle scoring on a 69-yard interception return and an 87-yard kickoff return. There were just 647 total yards in the game, or a very efficient figure of about 12.7 yards per point, which is generally around the average of the very best offensive teams in the NFL in recent seasons.

Six of the last 10 Super Bowls have played ‘under’ and the last Super Bowl in Glendale was one of the lowest scoring Super Bowls ever with the Giants beating the Patriots 17-14. The Patriots scored 468 points in the regular season for over 29 points per game but New England has posted 80 points in two playoff wins.

As good as the Patriots were on offense this season it is hard to believe that last season’s Broncos squad posted 138 more points in the regular season than New England did this season and the Broncos certainly struggled vs. Seattle in the Super Bowl last season. The Seattle offense only had to go against four top 10 yards-per-play defenses on the season as the Seahawks may have inflated offensive figures for the season, facing half of its games against the bottom 13 defenses in the league.

Seattle had just 14 points through three quarters vs. Carolina and just seven points through three quarters vs. Green Bay as the Seahawks have really struggled early in games offensively at times.

With New England featuring great play-makers in the secondary and Russell Wilson coming off a four-interception game the Seahawks could be a bit more conservative in the Super Bowl. The Patriots have also been leaning on the running game late in the season and could take the ground approach knowing the great personnel in the secondary for the Seahawks as well.

[StarDust Bum]

History ahead: first SB overtime upcoming

January 28, 2015

PHOENIX (AP) - Almost as dominant as New England's performance in the AFC championship game was the showing for Pro Picks in both conference title matches.

A sweep.

Now comes the toughest choice of all, and even the odds makers are uncertain on this one. The Seahawks (No. 1, AP Pro32) have gone from a 3-point favorite to, well, no favorite at all. The Patriots are a slight favorite, and that seems logical for the top two seeds.

The Patriots (No. 2, AP Pro32) seek their fourth championship in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. Seattle is after a second straight crown, the first team to manage that in a decade. Guess who did it most recently?

Yep, New England.

Of course, the Patriots (14-4) also lost their past two trips to the big game, both to the Giants.

''We've had some pretty tough losses in past Super Bowls, but none of those matters at this point,'' quarterback Tom Brady said. ''We've got to go out there and we've got a big challenge. We've got a team that is the defending Super Bowl champs. Those guys worked hard. They've earned their spot here. They've won two great playoff games, and we have, too, so that's what makes for a great fight.''

Styles make for great fights, too, and this is a classic matchup: potent offense for the Patriots, stingy defense for Seattle (14-4).

In many of those, the defensive team winds up the winner, as happened last year when the Seahawks manhandled Peyton Manning and the Broncos. They'll need to be just as efficient this time against Brady.

''To be honest with you, we don't think about that,'' defensive end Cliff Avril said. ''We look at it as just another opponent in front of us. But ... those are two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, so obviously it does have a little bit of weight behind it.''

In 2014, Seattle got off to such a quick start - a safety on the first offensive snap for Denver - that the Super Bowl never really was close. With New England's ability to rally, including from a pair of 14-point deficits against Baltimore in the divisional round, the Seahawks recognize they can never relax.

Nor can the Patriots, knowing very well that Seattle's recent achievements make it as formidable as any opponent could be.

''I don't care about them being the top defense, that doesn't bother me,'' running back LeGarrette Blount said. ''They were good enough to get here, just like we were good enough to get here. They're not immortal. They can be beaten.''

Given recent developments, it seems much of America is rooting for New England to be beaten on Sunday, citing the deflated footballs investigation and a past history of stretching the rules (Spygate). If that is so, sorry America.

PATRIOTS, 27-24, overtime

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2014 RECORD: Against spread: This week (2-0); Season (132-122-5). Straight up: This week (2-0); Season (176-88-1)

Best Bet: 8-12 against spread, 12-8 straight up.

Upset special: 9-9 against spread, 7-11 straight up.

[StarDust Bum]

SBXLIX-NBA Props

January 29, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released hundreds of proposition wagers for Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots and Seahawks for Sunday, Feb. 1, 2015.

Included in that mix are “Cross-Sport” prop wagers, which allow bettors to focus on pro football and other sports, one of them pro basketball.

Listed below are opening props from the SuperBook for selected NBA games to be played next Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday, Jan. 31
Dallas at Orlando (7:00 p.m. ET)
Toronto at Washington (7:00 p.m. ET)
Houston at Detroit (7:30 p.m.)
Cleveland at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma City at Memphis (8:00 p.m. ET)
Phoenix at Golden State (10:30 p.m. ET)

Sunday, Feb. 1
Miami at Boston (1:00 p.m. ET)
L.A. Lakers at New York (2:00 p.m. ET)

Be sure to check the times and rules for each prop.

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PRO BASKETBALL CROSS-SPORT PROPS
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WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
HEAT POINTS -31.5 -110
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) RECEIVING YARDS +31.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
CELTICS POINTS -15.5 -110
MARSHAWN LYNCH (SEA) RUSHING YARDS +15.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
HEAT+CELTICS POINTS +11.5 -110
RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) GROSS PASSING YARDS -11.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Heat/Celtics--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 10:10 am Pacific
CHRIS BOSH (MIA) POINTS +1.5 -110
TOM BRADY (NE) COMPLETIONS -1.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
JEREMY LIN (LAL) POINTS +0.5 -110
SEAHAWKS FIRST HALF POINTS -0.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
LAKERS FIRST HALF POINTS -10.5 -110
JERMAINE KEARSE (SEA) RECEIVING YARDS +10.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
KNICKS FIRST QUARTER POINTS -1.5 -110
PATRIOTS POINTS +1.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Knicks--February 1, 2015) Prop closes at 11:10 am Pacific
(If no punt---all bets are refunded)
**Must be an official punt
LAKERS+KNICKS FIRST QUARTER POINTS -7.5 -110
JON RYAN (SEA) DISTANCE OF FIRST PUNT +7.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Mavericks/Magic--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
MONTA ELLIS POINTS (DAL) -1.5 -110
MARSHAWN LYNCH (SEA) LONGEST RUSH +1.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Raptors/Wizards--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
KYLE LOWRY (TOR) POINTS+ASSISTS -13.5 -110
ROBERT TURBIN (SEA) RUSHING YARDS +13.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Raptors/Wizards--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
JOHN WALL (WAS) POINTS -0.5 -110
RUSSELL WILSON (SEA) COMPLETIONS +0.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Raptors/Wizards--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:10 pm Pacific
BRADLEY BEAL (WAS) POINTS +8.5 -110
PATRIOTS POINTS -8.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Rockets/Pistons--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:40 pm Pacific
ROCKETS+PISTONS 3 POINT FG'S ATTEMPTED -24.5 -110
JERMAINE KEARSE (SEA) RECEIVING YARDS +24.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Rockets/Pistons--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 4:40 pm Pacific
JAMES HARDEN (HOU) POINTS PK -110
SHANE VEREEN (NE) RECEIVING YARDS PK -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Cavaliers/Wolves--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
LEBRON JAMES (CLE) POINTS -3.5 -110
TOM BRADY (NE) COMPLETIONS +3.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Cavaliers/Wolves--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
CAVALIERS POINTS -30.5 -110
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) RECEIVING YARDS +30.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Thunder/Grizzlies--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
KEVIN DURANT (OKC) POINTS -6.5 -110
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) LONGEST RECEPTION +6.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Thunder/Grizzlies--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific
RUSSELL WESTBROOK (OKC) POINTS+ASSISTS +1.5 -110
LUKE WILLSON (SEA) RECEIVING YARDS -1.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Suns/Warriors--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 7:40 pm Pacific
**(If no FG is made--all bets are refunded)
MARKIEFF+MARCUS MORRIS (PHX) POINTS +2.5 -110
SHORTEST MADE FIELD GOAL OF GAME -2.5 -110

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Suns/Warriors--January 31, 2015) Prop closes at 7:40 pm Pacific
STEPHEN CURRY (GS) 3 POINT FG'S MADE +0.5 -130
PATRIOTS+SEAHAWKS MADE FIELD GOALS -0.5 +110

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl XLIX props for profit

January 30, 2015

If you’re interested in betting whether Marshawn Lynch will punctuate his reluctant week in the spotlight with another unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in Super Bowl XLIX, the option is out there.
The odds on it are actually pretty good.

Sportsbook.ag users will find it under novelty props, paying +600 (6-to-1) on your investment if he, uh, expresses himself on the field in a manner that draws a 15-yard flag.

For those who want to cut out all the nonsense and simply want to spend their Super Bowl Sunday deciphering who grabs at their crotch more, Lynch or halftime act Katy Perry, each is listed at -120.

My money there is on Perry. She’s frisky.

This is where the unofficial national holiday we annually look forward to this time of year is in 2015. Deal with it and embrace it.

Most people do, which is why the Nielsen rating over/under is set at an astronomical 47.5 (Over -135, Under -105). That’s larger than the 46.4 last year’s game drew. Over 111 million watched the Seahawks beat Denver, while the total for Sunday’s game is set at 113 million (Over -140, Under Even).

I’d back the over on both. Think about it. You probably have to look hard to find someone in your life whose household won’t watch.

My young girls be watching, likely in awe, as Idina Menzel of "Frozen" fame belts out our national anthem. If she completes singing “brave,” as in “and the home of the brave,” in less than 2:03, then the under hits and Daddy wins a new pair of shoes.

Sure, “Let it go” is a solid 3:45, but that’s a much longer song than the “Star-Spangled Banner,” which opera singer Renee Fleming handled in a tidy 1:53 last year. That was a second shorter than Christina Aguilera’s 2011 offering, but a whole 19 seconds longer than it took Kelly Clarkson in 2012. Amazingly, Alicia Keys took a full minute and one second longer than Clarkson, a whopping 2:35, to finish the same song back in 2013. Did she invent new lines? Maybe she had the over.

Menzel is favored (-145) not to linger. With John Travolta not expected to be in the building to butcher her name and get her all shook, it’s a good bet she won’t overstay her welcome. If Menzel comes in at a clean two minutes, maybe my little ones can get a few more Anna and Elsa dolls, too.

We’ve come a long way from heads or tails, which is still a popular bet. From the color of Bill Belichick’s hoodie (grey -155, blue +115) to Perry’s choice of attire for her first song (dress/skirt -225, pants/shorts/bikini/leotard/other +165), you can find most anything to wager on.

A lot of it actually involves what takes place on the field between the actual players, if you can believe it. Here are a 12 more props (odds courtesy of Westgate Superbook) worth seriously taking a look at in addition to the viewing audience projections and Menzel’s anthem rendition that will have you doing the Johnny Manziel money dance by night’s end:

Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the game? Both possibilities are at -110, but the heavy favorite here is NO. Although the NFC Championship started with fireworks due to Aaron Rodgers’ hot start and turnovers, it’s hard to imagine Tom Brady going right down the field against Seattle. The Seahawks are going to want to run the ball down New England’s throat if they get the ball first, which eats up clock. With eight minutes left, the call is that we’ll still be scoreless.

Will the first score of the game be a TD (-165) or any other score (+145)? Especially since you’re getting more bang for your buck, for reasons reference above as to why we might get a slow start and below regarding both kickers, a friendly field goal may come first. A safety also works.

Will both teams make a 33-yard field goal or longer? Pull the trigger on YES (+140). Stephen Gostkowski and Steven Hauschka should get opportunities and are both extremely reliable. No is actually the favorite at -160 since the stipulation of length rides as an unfriendly variable, but this has the feel of a game where both coaches will take points when they’re in range as opposed to risking turnovers, at least early on. Mix in a two-minute drill possibly yielding an opportunity and this is one to get behind.

Will Tom Brady throw an interception? Ride with YES (-150). There’s a reason the future Hall of Famer is expected to throw a pick, odds-wise. He’s thrown an INT in eight of his last 10, including both playoff games, which doesn’t bode well considering this is the best secondary he’s run into. Despite how great he’s been in these money games, he has been picked off in two of five Super Bowls. It will be three in six after Sunday. If you disagree, you can get +130 on it.

Will Jermaine Kearse’s first reception be over/under 9.5 yards? Both are -110, but we’ll be chasing the OVER here. He had a 35-yard catch for a score the only time he caught a ball against Green Bay. His first catch against Carolina went for 33 yards. His next one went for 63 and a touchdown. The University of Washington product has emerged as a big-play guy. Backing that his first touch will go at least 10 yards looks attractive. Kearse is also a solid play to gain over 43.5 receving yards (-110).

Will Rob Gronkowski have more than 5.5 receptions (over -135/under +115)? Despite the prospect of facing off with star safety Kam Chancellor all day, odds are great he’ll lead the team in targets. The Patriots have targeted him at least eight times in 12 of the last 13 games, so he’s had at least six catches in eight times. Unless he has to leave the game for any reason, the OVER is the play.

Will the total number of Patriots to catch a pass from Brady exceed 6.5 (over -125/under +105)? Go OVER. Brady is a lock to get the ball to tight ends Gronkowski and Tim Wright, receivers Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell and running back Shane Vereen at least once. You have to figure the opportunity to flip it to LeGarrette Blount, Michael Hoomanawanui or an eligible offensive lineman should also present itself. Deep threat Brian Tyms might get a look. Eight Broncos caught passes against the Seahawks in last year’s Super Bowl despite a 43-8 defeat. Look for at least seven New England players to wind up in a catch and pay the juice.

Will the Patriots score in all four quarters? Yes gets you +240 for a reason. The Seahawks aren’t going to let that happen. Unfortunately, the juice is steep at -280.

Who will have more points, Lakers guard Jeremy Lin in his return to New York or Seattle in the first half? Lin has been placed in a backup role behind rookie point guard Jordan Clarkson, so he could continue to struggle coming off the bench in the Garden. He’s 8-for-24 from the field in in his last three games. The Seahawks are only laying half-a-point.

What will be the higher figure, Monta Ellis points (-1.5) or Marshawn Lynch’s longest rush? Obviously, if Lynch goes Beast mode and breaks off a 30-yard run you’re in trouble, but if the Patriots hold him to 20 or less, this looks great. Ellis is the Mavericks top scorer should get off against Orlando, which has given up an average of 111.8 points over their last 11 games, surrendering over 100 each time. Dallas ranks third in the NBA in points per game (107.2).

What will be the higher figure, LeBron James’ points (-3.5) or Tom Brady completions? This won’t go off if James, doesn’t play, but if he’s a go, taking Brady completions (+3.5) is definitely the play. The Cavs are in Minnesota, so if he bothers to lace them up, James might sit back and play facilitator, getting his teammates buckets for three quarters before sitting out the fourth in a likely blowout.

What will be the higher figure, combined goals in Chelsea-Manchester City or Tom Brady rushing attempts? Although Brady isn’t shy about putting his head down in big games and may be under duress all day against Seattle, you still have to ride with balls finding the back of the net in the Premier League’s match of the week. Chelsea gave up four goals against Bradford City in a shocking FA Cup loss last time out, but managed a 5-0 rout of host Swansea City in its last EPL game. There have been 24 goals scored in Chelsea’s six outings in 2015. Yes, that’s a lot. Man City tied Jose Mourinho’s team 1-1 at home early in the season, but should see more goals scored at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. In this favorable pick’em, back goals over Brady rushes.

[StarDust Bum]

SBXLIX - Prop Predictions

January 30, 2015


Similar to past Super Bowls, we asked seven of our NFL analysts and handicappers to make a prediction on the 10 popular props.

1) Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times w/o Other Team Scoring? YES (-160) NO (+140)
(Conversions Excluded)

Brian Edwards: NO
Chris David: YES
Kevin Rogers: YES
Joe Nelson: NO
Joe Williams: NO
Tony Mejia: NO
Matt Zylbert: NO

Consensus: NO

Quick Thoughts – Matt Zylbert: This Super Bowl encounter between the Patriots and Seahawks should be close, and perhaps more likely than not, may ultimately be decided by just one score in the final outcome. When a game is close, typically it consists of the back-and-forth variety, and with how talented both teams are, along with their usual sense of urgency that is on display for all 60 minutes of any given football game, it should be a tightly-contested affair. At the same time, it’s also ironic to take such a prop bet with these two specific teams, considering how both have established a reputation for being able to blow out any opponent, whether it be a bottom-feeder or an upper echelon organization, on any given Sunday, but on the surface, this really should be an even battle between two behemoths. In the process, it should create a very even ballgame, and if it’s back-and-forth as anticipated, that means no team will be able to build up a big lead at any point, which points to no team scoring three consecutive unanswered times. At +200, this definitely makes for an enticing bet.

2) Will there be a Safety? YES (+500) NO (-800)

Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Joe Williams: NO
Tony Mejia: NO
Matt Zylbert: NO

Consensus: NO

Quick Thoughts - Chris David: Despite having a safety in the last three Super Bowls and four of the previous six finales, the odds are against it happening again. In 48 Super Bowls, we've only seen nine safeties, two of them aided by penalties and one was intentional (SBXLVII). If you look back at the props before this three-game safety run occurred, bookmakers would've had you laying $1,300 to win $100 on NO safety. Laying 1/8 (Bet $800 to win $100) is still a rich investment but you're getting a discount from the oddsmakers this year.

3) Will there be Overtime? YES (+500) NO (-800)

Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Joe Williams: NO
Tony Mejia:
Matt Zylbert: NO

Consensus: NO

Quick Thoughts - Brian Edwards: We've nearly had overtime in several of New England's Super Bowls in the Brady-Belichick Era. Again, all about taking a shot at these types of bets but for very small amounts.

4) Total Number of Different Patriots to have a Pass Reception? OVER 6.5 (-135) UNDER 6.5 (+105)
(Conversions Do Not Count)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: OVER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Joe Williams: OVER
Tony Mejia: OVER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts – Tony Mejia: Tom Brady is a lock to get the ball to tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright, receivers Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell and running back Shane Vereen at least once. You have to figure the opportunity to flip it to LeGarrette Blount, Michael Hoomanawanui or an eligible offensive lineman should also present itself. Deep threat Brian Tyms might get a look. Eight Broncos caught passes against the Seahawks in last year’s Super Bowl despite a 43-8 defeat. Look for at least seven New England players to wind up with a catch and pay the juice.

5) Patriots - Total Rushing Yards: OVER 96.5 (-105) UNDER 96.5 (-125)

Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Joe Williams: UNDER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts – Kevin Rogers: The Seahawks' rushing defense allowed over 100 yards in each of their two playoff wins over Carolina and Green Bay. The Packers ran the ball to milk clock in the NFC title game with a sizable lead before blowing it. In last year's Super Bowl, Seattle jumped out to such a huge lead that Denver was forced to throw the ball. As long as the Seahawks can grab an early lead and force Brady to throw, Seattle can keep New England below this number.

6) Tom Brady - Total Passing Yards: OVER 265.5 (-115) UNDER 265.5 (-115)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Joe Williams: OVER
Tony Mejia: OVER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts – Brian Edwards: I'm thinking close game. Although Brady went 'over' this number in only eight of 18 games, we have to consider that New England won nine games by 15 points or more. In those contests, the Pats were running the football and killing clock in the fourth quarter. That won't be the case Sunday night. This is my top prop.

7) LeGarrette Blount - Total Rushing Yards: OVER 62.5 (-115) UNDER 62.5 (-115)
(No Rush Attempt - Under is Winner)

Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: UNDER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts - Chris David: In 18 games this season with the Steelers and Patriots, Blount has exceeded this number (62.5) just four times and in two of the instances, he was helped with runs of 50 and 33-yard plays. He's a grinder rather than a big-play back and if he gets 20-plus carries, which only happened twice this season, then he'll likely hit the number easily. I don't expect him to get that many touches in this game, especially against the league's best defense.

8) Julian Edelman - Total Receptions: OVER 6.5 (-135) UNDER 6.5 (+105)
(No Receptions - Under is Winner)

Brian Edwards: UNDER
Chris David: OVER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: OVER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: UNDER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts – Kevin Rogers: This number is boosted up because Edelman has picked up at least seven catches in each of the past six games. Seattle's pass defense is one of the top units in the league, as Brady will be forced to find other receivers, while the Seahawks didn't fare well against opposing tight ends, meaning Rob Gronkowski can steal some of Edelman's catches.

9) Russell Wilson - Total Rushing Yards: OVER 45.5 (-125) UNDER 45.5 (-105)
(No Rush Attempt - Under is Winner)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Joe Williams: OVER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts – Joe Nelson: Wilson has averaged just over 38 yards rushing per game in his career over 55 games, including seven playoff games. In each of his last five playoff games, he has failed to even hit that average mark, let alone this posted price. This game could feature more scrambling from Wilson as the Seahawks have obviously won the last five playoff games and with the exception of the NFC Championship two weeks ago, they have had leads early in most of those games. New England's offense seems likely to score some points in this game and the closer the game the more passing Seattle will do and the more rushing yards Wilson will have. Against New England, creativity is a requirement and there will likely be more zone-read looks from the Seahawks in the Super Bowl as well.

10) Marshawn Lynch - Total Rushing Yards: OVER 88.5 (-130) UNDER 88.5 (+100)
(No Rush Attempt - Under is Winner)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: OVER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: UNDER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts – Tony Mejia: There’s no question that Lynch is the key to this Super Bowl for Seattle, since possession and keeping the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands are points of emphasis in its game plan, but unless he breaks off multiple big runs, that number isn’t going to be all that easy to attain. New England had the ninth-best run defense in the NFL this season and will be able to take some risks with run blitzes given the likelihood the Seahawks take the conservative approach early. Even the number, coming off a 157-yard effort in the NFC Championship, seems trap-ish. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Pete Carroll mix in a healthy dose of Robert Turbin to complicate matters for over bettors.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl XLIX props for profit

January 30, 2015

If you’re interested in betting whether Marshawn Lynch will punctuate his reluctant week in the spotlight with another unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in Super Bowl XLIX, the option is out there.
The odds on it are actually pretty good.

Sportsbook.ag users will find it under novelty props, paying +600 (6-to-1) on your investment if he, uh, expresses himself on the field in a manner that draws a 15-yard flag.

For those who want to cut out all the nonsense and simply want to spend their Super Bowl Sunday deciphering who grabs at their crotch more, Lynch or halftime act Katy Perry, each is listed at -120.

My money there is on Perry. She’s frisky.

This is where the unofficial national holiday we annually look forward to this time of year is in 2015. Deal with it and embrace it.

Most people do, which is why the Nielsen rating over/under is set at an astronomical 47.5 (Over -135, Under -105). That’s larger than the 46.4 last year’s game drew. Over 111 million watched the Seahawks beat Denver, while the total for Sunday’s game is set at 113 million (Over -140, Under Even).

I’d back the over on both. Think about it. You probably have to look hard to find someone in your life whose household won’t watch.

My young girls be watching, likely in awe, as Idina Menzel of "Frozen" fame belts out our national anthem. If she completes singing “brave,” as in “and the home of the brave,” in less than 2:03, then the under hits and Daddy wins a new pair of shoes.

Sure, “Let it go” is a solid 3:45, but that’s a much longer song than the “Star-Spangled Banner,” which opera singer Renee Fleming handled in a tidy 1:53 last year. That was a second shorter than Christina Aguilera’s 2011 offering, but a whole 19 seconds longer than it took Kelly Clarkson in 2012. Amazingly, Alicia Keys took a full minute and one second longer than Clarkson, a whopping 2:35, to finish the same song back in 2013. Did she invent new lines? Maybe she had the over.

Menzel is favored (-145) not to linger. With John Travolta not expected to be in the building to butcher her name and get her all shook, it’s a good bet she won’t overstay her welcome. If Menzel comes in at a clean two minutes, maybe my little ones can get a few more Anna and Elsa dolls, too.

We’ve come a long way from heads or tails, which is still a popular bet. From the color of Bill Belichick’s hoodie (grey -155, blue +115) to Perry’s choice of attire for her first song (dress/skirt -225, pants/shorts/bikini/leotard/other +165), you can find most anything to wager on.

A lot of it actually involves what takes place on the field between the actual players, if you can believe it. Here are a 12 more props (odds courtesy of Westgate Superbook) worth seriously taking a look at in addition to the viewing audience projections and Menzel’s anthem rendition that will have you doing the Johnny Manziel money dance by night’s end:

Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the game? Both possibilities are at -110, but the heavy favorite here is NO. Although the NFC Championship started with fireworks due to Aaron Rodgers’ hot start and turnovers, it’s hard to imagine Tom Brady going right down the field against Seattle. The Seahawks are going to want to run the ball down New England’s throat if they get the ball first, which eats up clock. With eight minutes left, the call is that we’ll still be scoreless.

Will the first score of the game be a TD (-165) or any other score (+145)? Especially since you’re getting more bang for your buck, for reasons reference above as to why we might get a slow start and below regarding both kickers, a friendly field goal may come first. A safety also works.

Will both teams make a 33-yard field goal or longer? Pull the trigger on YES (+140). Stephen Gostkowski and Steven Hauschka should get opportunities and are both extremely reliable. No is actually the favorite at -160 since the stipulation of length rides as an unfriendly variable, but this has the feel of a game where both coaches will take points when they’re in range as opposed to risking turnovers, at least early on. Mix in a two-minute drill possibly yielding an opportunity and this is one to get behind.

Will Tom Brady throw an interception? Ride with YES (-150). There’s a reason the future Hall of Famer is expected to throw a pick, odds-wise. He’s thrown an INT in eight of his last 10, including both playoff games, which doesn’t bode well considering this is the best secondary he’s run into. Despite how great he’s been in these money games, he has been picked off in two of five Super Bowls. It will be three in six after Sunday. If you disagree, you can get +130 on it.

Will Jermaine Kearse’s first reception be over/under 9.5 yards? Both are -110, but we’ll be chasing the OVER here. He had a 35-yard catch for a score the only time he caught a ball against Green Bay. His first catch against Carolina went for 33 yards. His next one went for 63 and a touchdown. The University of Washington product has emerged as a big-play guy. Backing that his first touch will go at least 10 yards looks attractive. Kearse is also a solid play to gain over 43.5 receving yards (-110).

Will Rob Gronkowski have more than 5.5 receptions (over -135/under +115)? Despite the prospect of facing off with star safety Kam Chancellor all day, odds are great he’ll lead the team in targets. The Patriots have targeted him at least eight times in 12 of the last 13 games, so he’s had at least six catches in eight times. Unless he has to leave the game for any reason, the OVER is the play.

Will the total number of Patriots to catch a pass from Brady exceed 6.5 (over -125/under +105)? Go OVER. Brady is a lock to get the ball to tight ends Gronkowski and Tim Wright, receivers Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell and running back Shane Vereen at least once. You have to figure the opportunity to flip it to LeGarrette Blount, Michael Hoomanawanui or an eligible offensive lineman should also present itself. Deep threat Brian Tyms might get a look. Eight Broncos caught passes against the Seahawks in last year’s Super Bowl despite a 43-8 defeat. Look for at least seven New England players to wind up in a catch and pay the juice.

Will the Patriots score in all four quarters? Yes gets you +240 for a reason. The Seahawks aren’t going to let that happen. Unfortunately, the juice is steep at -280.

Who will have more points, Lakers guard Jeremy Lin in his return to New York or Seattle in the first half? Lin has been placed in a backup role behind rookie point guard Jordan Clarkson, so he could continue to struggle coming off the bench in the Garden. He’s 8-for-24 from the field in in his last three games. The Seahawks are only laying half-a-point.

What will be the higher figure, Monta Ellis points (-1.5) or Marshawn Lynch’s longest rush? Obviously, if Lynch goes Beast mode and breaks off a 30-yard run you’re in trouble, but if the Patriots hold him to 20 or less, this looks great. Ellis is the Mavericks top scorer should get off against Orlando, which has given up an average of 111.8 points over their last 11 games, surrendering over 100 each time. Dallas ranks third in the NBA in points per game (107.2).

What will be the higher figure, LeBron James’ points (-3.5) or Tom Brady completions? This won’t go off if James, doesn’t play, but if he’s a go, taking Brady completions (+3.5) is definitely the play. The Cavs are in Minnesota, so if he bothers to lace them up, James might sit back and play facilitator, getting his teammates buckets for three quarters before sitting out the fourth in a likely blowout.

What will be the higher figure, combined goals in Chelsea-Manchester City or Tom Brady rushing attempts? Although Brady isn’t shy about putting his head down in big games and may be under duress all day against Seattle, you still have to ride with balls finding the back of the net in the Premier League’s match of the week. Chelsea gave up four goals against Bradford City in a shocking FA Cup loss last time out, but managed a 5-0 rout of host Swansea City in its last EPL game. There have been 24 goals scored in Chelsea’s six outings in 2015. Yes, that’s a lot. Man City tied Jose Mourinho’s team 1-1 at home early in the season, but should see more goals scored at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. In this favorable pick’em, back goals over Brady rushes.

[StarDust Bum]

SBXLIX Novelty Props

January 31, 2015


Super Bowl XLIX takes place on Sunday, February 1, 2015 and our friends at Sportsbook.ag are already offering up proposition wagers on the big game, which include the popular novelty props listed below.

According to Sportsbook.ag senior betting consultant Matt James, bettors are heavily vested in these props this year.

Listed below are all of the available props and the latest betting trends (in red), which shows you which way the Sportsbook.ag audience is leaning on these wagers.

How to read the odds:
Ex. Bet $100 on Katy Perry-Dress/Skirt (-225) to win $44
Ex. Bet $100 on Katy Perry-Pants/Other (+165) to win $165

Super Bowl XLIX Novelty Props

Idina Menzel - 2015 Super Bowl - How Long Will it Take her to Sing the National Anthem
Over/Under in Seconds Over 122.5 (+110) 38%
Over/Under in Seconds Under 122.5 (-150) 62%

Bill Belichick - What Color Hoodie will he wear for Super Bowl XLIX (Main Color)
Grey -155 60%
Blue +115 40%

Bill Belichick - Hoodie Style for Super Bowl XLIX
Sleeves +170 27%
Sleeves Cut -235 73%

Katy Perry - What will she be wearing during her first song performance for Super Bowl XLIX halftime
Dress/Skirt -225 71%
Pants/Shorts/Any Other +165 29%

Katy Perry - Will She be showing Cleavage during Halftime Show
Yes -700 76%
No +400 24%

Who will have the most crotch grabs During Super Bowl XLIX
Katy Perry -120 57%
Marshawn Lynch -120 43%

Marshawn Lynch - Will he be fined by NFL for any incident on Super Bowl XLIX Media Day
Yes SUSPENDED 95%
No SUSPENDED 5%

Marshawn Lynch - Will He grab his crotch after scoring a TD in the game
Yes +300 93%
No -500 7%

What will the Nielsen TV Rating be for Superbowl XLIX (Source Nielsen)
Over/Under TV Rating Over 47.5(-135) 88%
Over/Under TV Rating Under 47.5(-105) 12%

How Many Viewers in Millions for Superbowl XLIX (Source Nielsen)
Over/Under Million Viewers Over 113(-145) 88%
Over/Under Million Viewers Under 113(+105) 12%

Which region will have the higher Nielsen Rating for Superbowl XLIX (Source Nielsen)
Boston -110 69%
Seattle -130 31%

Super Bowl Coin Toss
Heads -101 58%
Tails -101 42%

[StarDust Bum]

RECENT TRENDS

New England Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in February.

Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Superbowl games
.
Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.

Seattle Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Head to Head No recent Head to Head trends

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NJURY REPORT
NEW ENGLAND
P PLAYER STATUS NOTES
LB A. Ayers
Prob Sun
Knee
01/30/15
Ayers is expected to play in the Super Bowl on Sunday against the Seahawks despite a knee injury.
C B. Stork
Prob Sun
Knee
01/26/15
Stork missed the last game with a knee injury. He is taking part in practice and is expected to play in the Super Bowl on Sunday against the Seahawks.
CB A. Dennard
I-R
Hamstring
12/30/14
Dennard has a hamstring injury and is on injured reserve.
DT D. Easley
I-R
Knee
12/17/14
Easley has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury.
WR A. Dobson
I-R
Hamstring
12/04/14
Dobson has been placed on injured reserve due to a season-ending hamstring injury.
LB J. Mayo
I-R
Knee
10/16/14
Mayo suffered a lower right leg injury during Week 6 and has been placed on season-ending injured reserve.
RB S. Ridley
I-R
Knee
10/16/14
Ridley suffered a torn ACL and MCL during Week 6 and has been placed on injured reserve.
DL M. Buchanan
I-R
Undisclosed
10/06/14
Buchanan has been placed on injured reserve with an undisclosed season-ending injury.
LB J. Morris
I-R
Undisclosed
09/27/14
Morris has been placed on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury.
WR G. Orton
I-R
Achilles
09/04/14
Orton has been placed on injured reserve with an Achilles injury.
RB T. Gaffney
I-R
Knee
08/27/14
Gaffney has been placed on injured reserve due to a knee injury.
LB C. Gordon
I-R
Undisclosed
08/27/14
Gordon has been placed on injured reserve and will miss the entire season.
SEATTLE
P PLAYER STATUS NOTES
S K. Chancellor
Prob Sun
Knee
01/31/15
Chancellor exited Friday's practice with a sore left knee injury but is expected to be ready for the Superbowl against the Patriots on Sunday.
CB R. Sherman
Prob Sun
Elbow
01/29/15
Sherman is expected to play against the Patriots in the Super Bowl on Sunday despite torn ligaments in his elbow.
S E. Thomas
Prob Sun
Shoulder
01/29/15
Thomas is recovering from a shoulder injury and should be ready for the Super Bowl on Sunday against the Patriots.
G J. Sweezy
Prob Sun
Ankle
01/29/15
Sweezy is dealing with an ankle injury but has been able to fully participate in practice. He is expected to be ready for the Super Bowl against the Patriots on Sunday.
S J. Johnson
Prob Sun
Elbow
01/26/15
Johnson has missed the last two games with an elbow injury but is expected to return to take on the Patriots in the Super Bowl on Sunday.
T J. Britt
Prob Sun
Knee
01/26/15
Britt missed the last game with a knee injury but is expected to be ready for the Super Bowl on Sunday against the Patriots.
WR P. Richardson
I-R
Knee
01/12/15
Richardson suffered a torn ACL during the NFC divisional round game and has been placed on injured reserve.
DT J. Hill
I-R
Calf
01/06/15
Hill has a torn calf and has been placed on injured reserve.
LB K. Pierre-Louis
I-R
Shoulder
12/11/14
Pierre-Louis has been placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.
TE Z. Miller
I-R
Ankle
11/12/14
Miller has been placed on injured reserve and will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing ankle surgery.
DT B. Mebane
I-R
Hamstring
11/11/14
Mebane suffered a torn hamstring and has been placed on injured reserve.
T S. Schilling
I-R
Knee
11/09/14
Schilling has been placed on injured reserve and will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
DE G. Scruggs
I-R
Knee
11/03/14
Scruggs was placed on injured reserve due to a knee injury.
DE C. Marsh
I-R
Foot
10/26/14
Marsh has been placed on season-ending injured reserve due to a foot injury.
FB D. Coleman
I-R
Foot
10/26/14
Coleman will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery on his broken foot.
TE A. McCoy
I-R
Achilles
10/08/14
McCoy has been placed on injured reserve after suffering an Achilles injury.
DT J. Williams
I-R
Knee
09/23/14
Williams has been placed on injured reserve after suffering a knee injury.
DT D. Smith
I-R
Undisclosed
09/23/14
Smith has been placed on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury.
LB H. Farwell
I-R
Groin
08/27/14
Farwell has a groin injury and will miss the entire 2014 season.
G C. Davis Jr.
I-R
Calf
08/27/14
Davis Jr. has been placed on injured reserve due to a calf injury.
CB A. Jefferson
I-R
Ankle
08/27/14
Jefferson suffered an ankle injury during the preseason and is on injured reserve.

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NFL notebook: Patriots' Brady fighting the flu

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was in the fourth or fifth day Wednesday fighting a flu bug that first infected his children and had waylaid his wife, supermodel Gisele Bundchen.

"I'll be good. I'm not worried about it at all," Brady said before the Patriots' first practice in preparation for the Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said Brady's illness is not a serious concern and is not impacting preparation for the Super Bowl.

---The NFL team investigating why 11 of 12 footballs used by the Patriots in their AFC Championship Game win were underinflated has asked the physics department at Columbia University for help, according to The New York Times.

Ted Wells, who along with NFL executive vice president Jeff Pash is leading the investigation, made the call to the school's physics department Monday.

New England coach Bill Belichick said last Saturday that weather conditions may have affected the air pressure. Heavy rain and strong wind were in Foxborough the night of the game, and temperatures were in the low 50s and high 40s.

---The Washington Redskins named Matt Cavanaugh as quarterbacks coach.

Cavanaugh joins the Redskins with 22 seasons of coaching experience across the professional and collegiate levels. The 2015 season will mark the 32nd NFL season of Cavanaugh's career, including 14 combined seasons as a quarterback for the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants from 1978-91 and 17 seasons as an NFL coach.

Cavanaugh served as quarterbacks coach of the Chicago Bears in 2013-14. Prior to joining the Bears, Cavanaugh spent 2009-12 coaching quarterbacks for the New York Jets, helping the team to two AFC Championship Game appearances.

---San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Tomsula reportedly has reached into his NFL Europe past for his quarterbacks coach.

Steve Logan, Tomsula's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2006 with the Rhein Fire, reached a two-year deal with the 49ers on Wednesday, according to WRAL-TV in Raleigh, N.C.

Logan, 61, had been out of football since 2011, working in radio and TV, including for WRAL.

Logan spent 11 years (1992-2002) as the coach at East Carolina, where he was 69-58 and coached future NFL quarterbacks Jeff Blake and David Garrard.

---The Jacksonville Jaguars reportedly hired a quarterbacks coach and running backs coach.

Nathaniel Hackett, who was the Buffalo Bills' offensive coordinator for the past two seasons under Doug Marrone, will rejoin Marrone in Jacksonville as coach Gus Bradley's QB coach, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Media.

Former Oakland Raiders assistant Kelly Skipper will be running backs coach under new Jaguars offensive coordinator Greg Olson, the Florida Times-Union reported.

---The Baltimore Ravens filled out the rest of John Harbaugh's coaching staff, including Chris Hewitt as defensive backs coach, Matt Weiss as cornerbacks coach and Drew Wilkins as a defensive assistant.

The Ravens also promoted Richard Angulo to tight ends coach and Mike Macdonald to defensive assistant, and they hired Andy Bischoff as offensive quality control.

---The Cleveland Browns will hire former Florida assistant Joker Phillips to coach wide receivers and are considering former NFL backup quarterback Kevin O'Connell for their open quarterbacks coach position, according to reports by ESPN.

O'Connell, a third-round pick of New England in 2008, was meeting with Cleveland on Wednesday, according to Adam Schefter.

O'Connell, 29, recently has been a quarterbacks tutor, and the Browns likely are interested in him because he worked with Browns rookie Johnny Manziel before the 2014 draft.

Phillips comes to Cleveland, per Adam Caplan, after two years as Florida's wide receivers coach and recruiting coordinator. Before that, he was head coach at Kentucky for three years.

--- Louisville defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has declined the chance to be the defensive coordinator for new Oakland Raiders coach Jack Del Rio.

The Raiders offered Grantham the position under a two-year contract, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported Wednesday. Shortly later, various media outlets reported that Grantham will remain on Bobby Petrino's staff at Louisville.

Grantham, a longtime defensive assistant in the NFL, spent the 2014 season as Petrino's coordinator, overseeing the nation's No. 6 defense.

---The Indianapolis Colts and Canadian Football League wide receiver Duron Carter, son of Hall of Fame receiver Cris Carter, have agreed on a contract for the 2015 season, CBSSports.com reported.

Carter totaled 1,939 receiving yards for the Montreal Alouettes in two seasons after opting to play in the CFL when he went undrafted in 2013. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound receiver had 75 catches for 1,030 yards and seven touchdowns last season.

Carter, 23, wasn't eligible to sign with an NFL team until Feb. 10, but the Indianapolis Star reported that the receiver has an agreement with the Alouettes that he will be released from his contract immediately if he signs an NFL contract.

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NFL

Championship


Patriots pool report: First practice in the books

TEMPE, Ariz. -- The New England Patriots conducted their first practice since arriving in Arizona for Super Bowl XLIX, a two-hour session Wednesday that coach Bill Belichick saw as significant for getting his team back on a regular schedule following two days without practices.

"This Wednesday is kind of like a regular Wednesday, tomorrow will be kind of like a Thursday, Friday will be like a Friday," Belichick said. "So we're trying to get back on schedule."

A regular Wednesday practice includes a heavy dose of situational reps, and the Patriots did exactly that while using one of the two grass fields at the Arizona Cardinals training facility on a mild, partly cloudy afternoon with temperatures around 75 degrees.

After extensive individual drills, the work included third downs, red zone snaps and various down-and-distance challenges.

"There's always things to work on, but we're grinding away," Belichick said.

The Patriots installed the bulk of their game plan for Sunday's game last week while practicing at Gillette Stadium.

"There's a little bit of refining, but it's also practicing closer to the game," Belichick said. "Practicing it two weeks ago and practicing it now, four days before the game, it's more of our normal timeframe."

As expected, the Patriots were at full strength in practice from an attendance standpoint. Center Bryan Stork, who did not practice when drills began last week while nursing a knee injury, practiced without any apparent setback.

Quarterback Tom Brady acknowledged early Wednesday that he's battling a cold, but looked sharp. Belichick isn't worried about his condition.

Said Belichick, "He took all the snaps."

Belichick called the field conditions "great," yet did tweak the environment as music -- rap, rock, hip-hop -- blared for an extended portion of the team drills. Belichick typically pipes in noise to help with concentration and communication, but ease up now.

"In this game, you know, it's kind of a neutral field, so you've got to be ready for it," Belichick said.

The NBC broadcast crew -- including play-by-play man Al Michaels, analyst Cris Collinsworth and sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya -- attended the practice.



Seahawks pool report: All healthy in practice

TEMPE, Ariz. -- With all 53 players on the active roster and 10 practice-squad members healthy enough to work, a rarity for this late in a season, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks opened their practice week for Super Bowl XLIX with their weekly "Competition Wednesday" practice on the campus of Arizona State University.

Under threatening skies with temperatures in the low 70s and a light breeze blowing, the Seahawks practiced for one hour and 32 minutes on Arizona State's two natural-grass football practice fields, the workout ending at dusk under the lights. As usual, the Seahawks were serenaded by a diverse music mix blasting from sideline speakers, ranging from Jay Z to Evil Empire to Elvis Presley.

"Terrific work," coach Pete Carroll said minutes after the practice ended. "Terrific day. The energy was there, and guys got good work in. This was an unusual day for the guys, with the media stuff in the middle of the day. We had meetings in the morning, then the media, then more meetings to prepare for practice, and then came out here. But the guys worked hard."

Notable for their work on Wednesday were the three Seahawks who entered the week with some injury concerns. But today's practice showed the Seahawks should be one of the healthiest Super Bowl teams in memory. The injury questions:

--Cornerback Richard Sherman (hyperextended elbow) worked regularly with the defense and made a leaping interception, extending both arms in the air to make it. With his elbow wrapped, Sherman didn't look affected by the injury suffered in the NFC title game 10 days ago.

--Free safety Earl Thomas (dislocated shoulder), also hurt in the title game against Green Bay, also showed no ill effects playing full time Wednesday.

--Guard J.R. Sweezy (ankle) took his turns with the first-unit offensive line and worked without any sort of limp, looking fit and not lagging behind in any drills

"We're really fortunate to be this healthy," said Carroll. "If we can make it through practice tomorrow, we'll be in great shape."

Carroll maintains that "Competition Wednesday" helps him determine playing time during the season. So even though players worked out in helmets and no pads, the tempo was fast and spirited. When defensive tackle Tony McDaniel batted down a Tarvaris Jackson pass, defensive line-mate Michael Bennett leaped to congratulate him, and three other defenders swarmed them.

Carroll said he'd have to look at the tape of practice to determine a daily winner--on Wednesdays, either the offense or defense is declared the winner--but with the offense keeping the quarterback clean on a late-practice pass-protection drill, he said the offense likely won the day. After practice, many Seahawks used the ASU weight room to get in a quick lift before buses took the team back to its hotel, with members of the Sun Devils' woman's basketball team looking on.

Seattle will continue its preparations Thursday with practice at the same time as Wednesday, 4:15 p.m. Mountain Time

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NFL
Dunkel

New England vs. Seattle
The Patriots head to Super Bowl XLIX to face a Seahawks team that is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Seattle is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1

Game 101-102: New England vs. Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.320; Seattle 146.101
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 1; 48
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1); Over




NFL
Long Sheet

Championship

Sunday, February 1

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NEW ENGLAND (14 - 4) vs. SEATTLE (14 - 4) - 2/1/2015, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 84-49 ATS (+30.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-75 ATS (+23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Championship

Sun, Feb. 1

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks, 6:30 ET

Super Bowl XLIX - University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona

New England
8-2 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
26-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
8-2 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
15-3 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
27-13 OVER in games played on turf

Seattle
24-13 ATS in all lined games
10-1 ATS as an underdog
27-14 ATS in games played on turf
18-6 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
7-0 OVER in road games in non-conference games




NFL

Championship

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. SEATTLE
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games
Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Championship

I think this will be a high-scoring Super Bowl. Three of last four Super Bowls went over the total, which isn't relevant but its true. Game is indoors so weather won't be a factor. Think Seattle's DBs are banged-up, so Brady will attack them early and find out if they are indeed healthy. Belichick will take Lynch's run game away, forcing Wilson to put it in the air and see if he can do better than he did against Green Bay.

Belichick/Brady are in sixth Super Bowl, with first five all decided by 4 or less points. Carroll won his first Super Bowl 43-8 LY; he was 28-23 as Patriots' coach, but was fired and replaced by Belichick despite making playoffs twice and going 8-8 the third year. Coaches in their second Super Bowl are 14-8.

NFC won four of last five Super Bowls; its been ten years since Patriots won their last one, but who on Seattle can cover Gronkowski? Seahawks play in this dome every year when they visit the Cardinals- that has to be a little bit of an advantage.

Brady is the better QB; think the coaches are even. Carroll's greatness is underrated, as he and Dick Vermeil are only coaches to win Super Bowl and a Rose Bowl. Willson better play better than he did two weeks ago.

Since 1991, NFC is 4-0 vs AFC in Super Bowls with two #1 seeds. Seattle, 30-27.