The Bum's 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

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QB Newton: Panthers must limit mistakes

January 4, 2015

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Cam Newton said if the Panthers hope to make a deep playoff run they'll need to cut down on mistakes and make more plays on offense.

Carolina turned over the ball three times on Saturday against Arizona but managed to escape with a 27-16 win thanks to a defense that limited quarterback Ryan Lindley and the Cardinals to 78 yards, the fewest allowed in NFL postseason history.

''Those things can't happen, especially in playoff football. We can't expect to win when we have three turnovers,'' Newton said after his first career playoff win.

If Dallas beats Detroit on Sunday, the Panthers will play at top-seeded Seattle next weekend. If the Lions win, the Panthers visit Green Bay.

The Panthers lost to both teams during the regular season.

Newton praised his defense's effort after the game, but didn't appear too thrilled with the overall performance of the team.

The Panthers jumped to a 10-0 lead, but a muff by returner Brenton Bersin and a Newton interception - a play in which wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery ran the wrong route - led to two Arizona touchdowns, giving the Cardinals a 14-13 lead at halftime.

''Without finger pointing, it can't happen,'' Newton said.

Carolina players said it was frustrating to be down by one in the locker room knowing they had outgained Arizona 208-65.

''We started out fast on both sides of the ball and on special teams, but it kind of fizzled in the (middle of the game),'' Newton said. ''That fizzle can't happen if we expect to do great things.''

Newton also had a fumble early in the fourth quarter with the Panthers up 27-14, giving the Cardinals the ball at the Carolina 8 with a chance to get back in the game. But All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly bailed him out by intercepting Lindley near the goal line on the next play.

''We have to play better than we have,'' Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. ''We gave them an opportunity to stay in the game. ... We just have to be smarter than some of the things we did out there. We have to protect the football. It's a very valuable thing.''

Kuechly finished with 10 tackles, drawing praise from tight end Greg Olsen.

''I know J.J. Watt is a great player, he's phenomenal, but you can't find a guy who impacts the game on defense like Luke,'' Olsen said after the game. ''The run game, the pass game, covering running backs. ... I mean the guy is unbelievable. Luke is the best defensive player I have ever played with. (Brian) Urlacher was like that ... a similar, dynamic kind of player, but Luke is that good already. He's phenomenal.''

Newton finished the wild-card game 18 of 32 for 198 yards with two touchdown passes and two turnovers. He also ran seven times for 35 yards, picking up back-to-back first downs on third-and-long in the third quarter.

Newton and the offense could have more challenges moving forward.

Carolina could be without speedy wide receiver Philly Brown, who injured his left shoulder in the first half against Arizona and did not return. Brown was a late-season addition to the starting lineup and provided the Panthers with some much-needed speed and a legitimate deep threat.

The Panthers have not announced the extent of the injury.

Although the Panthers' defense entered the record books, Kuechly stopped short of saying it was the best defensive effort he's been a part of in Carolina. He wasn't thrilled the Panthers gave up two touchdowns on quick change of possessions in the first half.

''I saw 14 points on the scoreboard at halftime and I said, `Dang, we need to play a little better. We can't let up any more points at this point,''' Kuechly said.

The Panthers were 3-8-1 at one point in the season, but managed to fight back and win the NFC South to land a home playoff game. Despite their record, Newton said the Panthers aren't satisfied after their first postseason win in nine years.

''We have a long way to go,'' Newton said. ''And we're anticipating traveling and getting another big win next week.''

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NFL line watch: Cowboys backers keep an eye on Wisconsin weather

Spread to bet on now

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

“Front of the line bettors” are on Baltimore in this one, but it appears they may be shooting at shadows. Yes, the Ravens looked good in taking care of the Steelers in Pittsburgh. And yes, Baltimore has had recent success against the Patriots in Foxboro. And yes, the Patriots lost their last regular-season game. But like a spin of the roulette wheel, this is an independent trial.

New England has been in dry dock for a week and has had time to handle some needed repairs to its offensive line, which was a bit shoddy over the final month. And when the Pats played Baltimore over the last few years, New England was crippled by injuries to Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski. This time Gronk is ready to go. Whoever you like in this one, books probably won’t budge off seven.


Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

These aren’t the Dallas Cowboys football bettors have been accustomed. The old Boys would have figured out a way to throw away a playoff spot with poor play in December, or Tony Romo would have done something – anything – to turn a win into a loss. But now Dallas takes a five-game winning streak into Green Bay on Sunday, and Cowboy backers will be able to get nearly a full touchdown in what figures to be a grind-it-out taffy pull.

Temperatures in Green Bay are expected to moderate a bit by Sunday, but it’s possible that the game will finish in single digits, which could be a shock to the Cowboys. Not “Ice Bowl II” stuff, but still nasty enough. Early money is on Green Bay, but Dallas money may flood in late and move the line. Hang on a bit here and check out the variables later in the week.


Total to watch

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (40.5)

Plenty to offer here for both Over and Under aficionados. Under players can make an argument that Seattle’s defense is every bit as good now as it was at this time last season, and that Carolina can easily hang with the Seahawks because the Panthers haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game in more than a month.

But some Over players will jump at anything under 41 points (24-17) and figure all that’s needed is a couple of well-placed pass interference call to make dust of the Under. Either way, it’s hard to see the books adding a half-point to the scale.

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Recent NFL history says Panthers are most dangerous team this postseason

The Carolina Panthers are the biggest underdogs on the board, set at +10.5 heading to Seattle for their NFL Divisional Round matchup this Saturday. The Panthers could also be the most dangerous team in football – if recent history has any say.

Carolina, at 7-8-1 in the regular season, joins the recent list of single-digit-win teams to tear it up in the playoffs. The Panthers’ 27-16 wild card victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 5.5-point favorites Saturday improved teams with single-digit wins in the regular season to 20-7 ATS in playoff games since 2008.

Carolina squeezed into the postseason with a one-sided win at Atlanta in Week 17, finishing atop the NFC South and earning an automatic postseason berth – just the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 finish to the regular season.

“The market has had a lot to do with it in the past, as lines have been overinflated going against these single-win teams,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who cashed in on Carolina Saturday.

Last year, single-digit win teams were a perfect 3-0 ATS in the playoff. The Green Bay Packers (8-7-1 SU) just covered as 3.5-point underdogs in a 23-20 Wild Card loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and the San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU) knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 as 6.5-point pups in the Wild Card Round and covered in a 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos as 8-point underdogs in the AFC Divisional Round.

The two most prominent single-win postseason teams in that seven-year span have been the New York Giants, who finished 9-7 in 2011 and rolled to a Super Bowl XLVI title on perfect 4-0 SU and ATS postseason record, and Arizona Cardinals, who went 9-7 in 2008 and finished 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS eventually losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-23 as 6.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl XLIII.

“I don't think there's any question it’s a result of the overreaction to regular season results,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy, who also won big on the Panthers this past weekend. “Outside of that, I'm not sure there's any particular reason why single-digit win teams cover at such a high rate. When the playoffs kick off the slate is always wiped clean and that gives a lot of confidence to underdogs with an 'us against the world' mentality.”

As for the Panthers’ chances against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the opening odds had Carolina as high as +11.5 and have since been bet down as low as +10.5. Seattle has won four in a row in this series, covering the spread in three of those games. The lone blemish came this season, with the Panthers covering as 6-point home underdogs in a 13-9 loss to the Seahawks in Week 8.

“The Panthers defense came into the postseason playing awesome and they had outgained six straight opponents, make that seven now,” says Fargo. “This week, though, we are seeing the typical single-win team getting a lot of points and the market is driving this number based on the poor Carolina record going up against the defending Super Bowl Champions.”

For those not wanting to deal with so many points, there could be value on the Panthers to win outright at CenturyLink Field Saturday. Teams with single-digit wins in the regular season are an impressive 17-10 SU since 2008.

Carolina is currently a +475 outright underdog. Just sayin’.

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Playoff Analysis - Top 4

January 6, 2015


As the playoffs begin, those who earned the top two seeds in each conference have a key edge, as they get a bye the first week while watching the others duke it out. Sitting at home this past weekend were the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers. Why is that significant? A year ago the four bye teams were the Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks and Panthers. The top AFC teams met in the title game, while the Seahawks went on to win the Super Bowl.

Gaining the bye is an advantage for teams to not only rest injured players, but to have two weeks to put together a game plan. Since 1990, 36 first and second round seeds have filled 48 Super Bowl slots and the No. 1 and 2 seeds, rested after the bye, have gone 63-21 straight up in their first games in the divisional round.

A last three years the rested teams have gone 9-3 SU and 5-7 against the spread. Last year Carolina lost at home to the 49ers, but the other three teams won, including the Pats routing the Colts, 43-22. Two years ago the Pats blew out Houston, 45-28 and the 49ers roasted Green Bay, 45-21.

The No. 1 seeded team in five of the last 10 years in the NFC (Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints, Seahawks) wound up in the Super Bowl. In the AFC it's been a different story, as the only recent No. 1 seeds to make it were the 2003, '07, '11 Patriots, the '09 Colts and last year’s Broncos.

Four years ago the Pats lost to the NY Jets and two years ago Denver failed to win a game. Here's a look at the four teams that come into this weekend's playoff games rested with home field.

Denver Broncos (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS): Here they are again! Denver has QB Peyton Manning, but he is far off his record setting 2013 pace (51 TDs, 10 INTs) as the team looked for more balance on offense in the second half of the season, a curious move. GM John Elway keeps pointing out that he won his Super Bowls with balanced offenses, but the rules of the game were different then: they favor passing much more now, so why not play to your strength?

It hasn’t been a dominating second half with losses to the Patriots (43-21), Rams (22-7) and Bengals (37-28). The defense, though, looks better than last season when they were depleted by injuries going into the postseason. For totals players, Denver is on a 33-13-1 run over the total at home, plus 43-21-1 over against the AFC.

New England Patriots (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS): New England was beat up with injuries and a bad defense one year ago but has completely flip-flopped. QB Tom Brady has top target TE Rob Gronkowski healthy and the offense has been balanced. New England has home field in the playoffs and is 8-0 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record.

The defense has been the big story, adding CBs Brandon Browner and Darell Revis in the offseason, then picking up DT Alan Branch and LB Akeem Ayers in mid-season. All have helped to vastly improve the defense. The Patriots are on a 39-19-1 run over the total at home.

Green Bay Packers: (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS): Hard to believe this team started 1-2 back in September, getting mauled by Seattle (36-16) and shut down by Detroit (19-7). QB Aaron Rodgers enjoyed an MVP season and RB Eddie Lacy provides balance, topping 1,000 yards again. The defense struggled badly against the run in the first half of the season, but has been tough down the stretch. That will help in a potential rematch with Seattle. In that opener, Seattle had 207 yards rushing and Green Bay had 255 total yards. Rodger did not throw Richard Sherman’s way once. The Pack is 34-16-2 ATS at Lambeau Field and 22-8-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

Seattle Seahawks: (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS): The Beast from the Northwest! Seattle used home field advantage and a pulverizing defense to win the Super Bowl last year and they have a shot to repeat. After some first half struggles with injuries and the Percy Harvin mess, Seattle got healthier on defense and has been dominating, top 5 against the run and the pass.

On offense QB Russell Wilson (20 TDs, 7 INTs) is smart and mobile, making good decisions, and RB Marshawn Lynch is a workhorse on the NFL’s top-ranked ground attack. The linebacking corps is outstanding and the secondary is better, tops in the NFL at defending the pass for the second straight season. The Seahawks are 36-15-1 ATS against the NFC and 36-16-1 ATS in their last 54 home games! Looks like the NFC goes through Seattle this January -- again!

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Divisional Betting Trends

January 6, 2015

Since the inception of the 12-team NFL playoff format in 1990, the top two seeds in each conference have not only benefited from the luxury of hosting the wild-card round winner, but doing so with an added week of rest.

The well-rested hosts are 70-26 SU (straight up) overall but only 49-45-2 ATS (against the spread). However, what started as a huge point spread edge for home teams has diminished drastically over the past eight postseasons.

Consider: from 1990 through the 2005 playoffs these well-rested hosts compiled a hefty 51-13 SU and 37-23-2 ATS mark. Since 2006 they have gone a dismal 19-13 SU and 12-20 ATS.

That is as many losses (13) over the last eight postseasons as during the first 16, to show for their effort. Thus it appears that rest has turned to rust for these top two conference seeds.

In addition, No. 1 seeds in the NFC are 20-4 SU (.834) and 14-10 ATS (.583) in the Divisional Playoffs. No. 1 seeds in the AFC are 14-10 SU (.583) and 9-15 ATS (.378).

Situational wise, No. 1 seeds off a SU loss are 14-4 SU (.780) and 12-6 ATS (667).

No. 1 seeds off a SU win are 20-10 SU (667) and 11-19 ATS (35.7)

The most recent trend of note: since the 2006 playoffs all No. 1 seeds are 8-8 SU and 3-13 ATS in divisional round games.

Here are the No. 1 seeds have fared in Divisional round play since 1990:

NO. 1 SEEDS DIVISONAL ROUND (1990-2013)

Year AFC No. 1 Seed Divisional Result NFC No. 1 Seed Divisional Result

1990 Buffalo Beat Miami 44-34 San Francisco Beat Washington 28-10

1991 Buffalo Beat Kansas City 37-14 Washington Beat Atlanta 24-7

1992 Pittsburgh Lost to Buffalo 24-3 San Francisco Beat Washington 20-13

1993 Buffalo Beat Oakland 29-23 Dallas Beat Green Bay 27-17

1994 Pittsburgh Beat Cleveland 29-9 San Francisco Beat Chicago 44-15

1995 Kansas City Lost to Indinapolis 10-7 Dallas Beat Philadelphia 30-11

1996 Denver Lost to Jacksonville 30-27 Green Bay Beat San Francisco 35-14

1997 Kansas City Lost to Denver 14-10 San Francisco Beat Minnesota 38-22

1998 Denver Beat Miami 38-3 Minnesota Beat Arizona 41-21

1999 Jacksonville Beat Miami 62-7 St. Louis Beat Minnesota 49-37

2000 Tennessee Lost to Baltimore 24-10 N.Y. Giants Beat Philadelphia 20-10

2001 Pittsburgh Beat Baltimore 27-10 St. Louis Beat Green Bay 45-17

2002 Oakland Beat N.Y. Jets 30-10 Philadelphia Beat Atlanta 20-6

2003 New England Beat Tenneessee 17-14 Philadelphia Beat Green Bay 20-17 (OT)

2004 Pittsburgh Beat N.Y. Jets 20-17 (OT) Philadelphia Beat Minnesota 27-14

2005 Indianapolis Lost to Pittsburgh 21-18 Seattle Beat Washington 20-10

2006 San Diego Lost to New England 24-21 Chicago Beat Seattle 27-24 (OT)

2007 New England Beat Jacksonville 31-20 Dallas Lost to N.Y. Giants 21-17

2008 Tennessee Lost to Baltimore 13-10 N.Y. Giants Lost to Philadelphia 23-11

2009 Indianapolis Beat Baltimore 20-3 New Orleans Beat Arizona 45-14

2010 New England Lost to N.Y. Jets 28-21 Atlanta Lost to Green Bay 48-21

2011 New England Beat Denver 45-10 Green Bay Lost to N.Y. Giants 37-20

2012 Denver Lost to Baltimore 35-38 Atlanta Beat Seattle 30-28

2013 Denver Beat San Diego 24-17 Seattle Beat New Orleans 23-15

2014 New England - Seattle -

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Divisional History & Notes

January 7, 2015


Division Round Playoff games have historically been fertile territory for home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), their dominance has not been especially pronounced recent years.

Indeed, since the 2004 postseason, road dogs stand 24-17-1 against the number in these playoff games.

Remember some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round.

Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts are off a "bye" and a week of rest.

And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 55 of the last 70 Super Bowl participants since 1978 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced; the last 70 excludes the '82 strike year).

But at least one top conference seed has met defeat in six of the past seven seasons, including Denver in the AFC two years ago.

Also identifiable with this round are one-sided results, which have recurred with regularity over the decades.

In fact, since 1975, more than half of these games have been decided by double-digit margins.

Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered at a 56% (43-34-2) in the Division Round since '75.

Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975.

Our "charting" begins with the 1975 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.

A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF RESULTS (1975-2014)

Category Result

Favorites vs. line 78-73-4 (1 pick)

Favorites straight up 108-47

Favored by 0-3 points 10-15-1

Favored by 3½-6½ points 26-23-1

Favored by 7-9½ points 28-23-1

Favored by 10-13½ points 12-8

Favored by 14 points or more 3-3-1

Home teams straight up 110-46

Home teams vs. spread 80-72-4

Home favorites vs. spread 75-69-4

Home underdogs vs. spread 4-3

Home picks vs. spread 1-0

Over/under (since 1986) 61-51

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF MARGINS OF VICTORY (1975-2014)

Category Result

1-3 points 36

4-6 points 12

7-10 points 28

11-13 points 13

14 points or more 67

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2014 Season Reviews

January 7, 2015

The weeks following the conclusion of the NFL regular season can be newsworthy, even for teams that don't make the playoffs. Especially for franchises looking for new head coaches (at the moment there are six--Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, NY Jets, Oakland, San Francisco).

Thus, the NFL version of the "coaching carousel" figures to continuing spinning up to (and perhaps slightly after) the Super Bowl. Keep an eye on a collection of current NFL assistants that likely include Seattle d.c. Dan Quinn, Seattle o.c. Darrell Bevell, Arizona d.c. Todd Bowles, Denver o.c. Adam Gase, New England o.c. Josh McDaniels, Cincinanti o.c. Hue Jackson, and Detroit d.c. Teryl Austin, and a few others, many of whom likely to be interviewed when their playoff assignments are complete, which also could delay the eventual naming of head coaches by several teams.

Meanwhile, speculation also centers upon those entries that didn't qualify for the postseason, and what changes might be in the offing in the coming months. As we usually like to do at this time of January, a quick review of the past campaign is in order for the non-playoff qualifiers, especially those teams in the market for new head coaches (we'll include some other coaching possibilities beyond those assistants listed above in our team-by-team reviews). All of that before updating NFL Division Round history and notes.

First, a quick look at the offseason situations for those teams that did not qualify for the playoffs, listed in alphabetical order by conference. Straight-up records for 2014 are included.

AFC

Buffalo (9-7)...Despite posting a winning record for the first time since 2004 and avoiding the AFC East basement for the first time in six years, the Bills' NFL-long postseason drought extended to 15 seasons. Now they enter the offseason with a couple of serious issues. First, at QB, where effective stop-gap Kyle Orton has retired, likely forcing Buffalo to search for a new pilot via the draft or free agency with EJ Manuel no longer appearing a long-term answer. But the real shocker came last week when HC Doug Marrone resigned to pursue job openings elsewhere after the recent sale of the franchise to Terry and Kim Pegula, owners of the NHL Sabres. With front office and coaching changes aplenty, and a big question at QB, the Bills, even with some undeniable positives (specifically a "D" that recorded an NFL-high 54 sacks, and promising skill-position weaponry like Clemson rookie WR Sammie Watkins), have several questions to be answered entering 2015.

Cleveland (7-9)...After an early-November Thursday beatdown of the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Browns led the AFC North and were briefly the talk of the NFL. But things fell apart shortly thereafter to the point where HC Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer nearly lost their jobs, as impatient owner Jimmy Haslam toyed with the idea of a fourth Cleveland HC and GM in as many seasons. The steps backward in December have put the Brownies in a familiar place, on the ropes, still with significant questions at QB with Brian Hoyer certain to test the FA waters and Johnny Manziel's maturity issues jeopardizing his future in C-Town. Troubled WR Josh Gordon, suspended again at the end of the regular season, is unlikely to return. After finishing last in completion percentage and third-down conversions, the "O" figures to command most of the offseason attention. At least the D" needs less fine-tuning.

Houston (9-7)...New HC Bill O'Brien proved a shrewd hire by owner Bob McNair, keeping the Texans alive in the AFC playoff chase until the final weekend and forging a 7-win improvement from the 2-14 train wreck of 2013. O'Brien did so with plenty of help from MVP candidate DE J.J. Watt (who also caught three TD passes!) and four different QBs, ending the season winning twice with Case Keenum, released in the summer but signed in an emergency from the Rams' practice squad after Ryan Mallett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Tom Savage all went down in rapid-fire succession late in the season. We'll see if O'Brien sticks with his current options at QB or looks in a different direction in the offseason, where Houston is likely to be active in free agency, especially in the secondary with several of the current DBs now out of contract. Another situation to watch will be that of vet WR Andre Johnson, due a sizable payout in 2015, but a likely candidate to be released unless his contract is restructured.

Jacksonville (3-13)...Though 2nd-year HC Gus Bradley continued to show promise in 2014, the Jags actually regressed in the W-L column (from 4-12 to 3-13). Some of that can be blamed on the growing pains of rookie QB Blake Bortles, who assumed the starting role a bit sooner than expected in what turned out to be an awkward transition from vet Chad Henne. The Jags would finish at or near the bottom of most offensive categories, but at least believe they finally have their franchise QB in place. And the "D" would keep the Jags in most of their games after September. While there is still organizational support for Bradley, who appears to be building a stable foundation, a move toward .500 will nonetheless be expected in 2015. Look for Jags to be seeking upgrades in the OL and secondary in free agency and/or the draft.

Kansas City (9-7)...It was a bittersweet ending for the Chiefs in 2014, beating the Chargers in the finale behind backup QB Chase Daniel, denying San Diego an AFC wildcard while technically jumping ahead of the Bolts to second in the AFC West. But KC would also barely miss the playoffs, as late-season losses at Oakland, Arizona, and Pittsburgh would in the end prevent Andy Reid from back-to-back postseason visits. Reid's offseason priorities are clear, including upgrades at WR after none caught a TD pass from either Alex Smith or Daniel the entire season, as well as along the OL. The Chiefs have a tight cap and will also have to do some creative contract adjustments (perhaps requesting vets such as LB Tamba Hali and WR Dwayne Bowe to take pay cuts) in order to make a stab at re-signing FA LB Justin Houston, the NFL sack leader.

Miami (8-8)...More than a few NFL observers believe owner Stephen Ross acted impulsively in the euphoria of a penultimate win over the Vikings when announcing that HC Joe Philbin (23-25 with no playoff appearances in three seasons) would return for a fourth season in 2015. Miami would subsequently lose to the Jets to complete a December fade for the second year in a row. (Sources have also indicated that Jim Harbaugh might have taken a hard look at Miami had the Dolphin job opened). The good news is that Ryan Tannehill seems established as a legit NFL QB. But Miami enters the offseason looking for upgrades along both lines, while there remains a chance Philbin might part with d.c. Kevin Coyle after the stop unit's late-season collapse.

NY Jets (4-12)...By midseason it was apparent that owner Woody Johnson would be parting ways with HC Rex Ryan and GM John Idzik, which was confirmed on "Black Monday." Johnson has enlisted NFL front-office vets Charlie Casserly and Ron Wolf in an advisory capacity, and they are likely to help Woody arrive at a GM selection before naming a new coach; sources say both positions could be filled within the week (ex-Bills coach Doug Marrone is considered a possibility for the latter). Expect a major roster overhaul to commence thereafter, with more offensive playmakers to be targeted after Eric Decker and Percy Harvin were added this past season. Those moves could also include a new QB, perhaps by moving up in the draft for a chance at Oregon's Marcus Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston (both expected to declare for the draft), though there might be a chance Geno Smith will be brought back for another shot. The new GM and coach will at least have the luxury of considerable cap space, allowing the Jets to make a splash in free agency if they wish.

Oakland (3-13)...For a long while it seemed as if the Raiders might challenge the 2008 Detroit Lions' regular-season mark for futility (0-16) before a mild late-season surge resulted in home wins over the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bills. Those results have given interim HC Tony Sparano a shot at keeping the job, since the team became more competitive after Dennis Allen walked the plank following an 0-4 start. Owner Mark Davis is also reportedly mulling what to do about GM Reggie McKenzie, hired with Allen after the 2011 season when Davis would regrettably jettison HC Hue Jackson, who almost took Oakland to the playoffs. All is not completely bleak in Oakland, however, as some nice potential building blocks (rookies QB Derek Carr & LB Khalil Mack, and 1st-year RB Latavius Murray) emerged in 2014. Before anything, however, Davis has to find his coach for 2015.

San Diego (9-7)...The Chargers matched their 2013 record for second-year HC Mike McKoy, but this time it wasn't good enough to reach the playoffs. Late-season rallies at Baltimore and San Francisco had given the Bolts a chance to squeeze into the postseason field as the year before, but a Week 17 loss in Kansas City wrecked those plans. At QB, Philip Rivers still has some gas in his tank but couldn't maintain his early-season pace, due in part to an inconsistent infantry and lineup shuffling along the OL. By the end of the season the Charger ground game had disappeared, and, with RB Ryan Mathews slated for free agency, the Bolts must decide if his injury history is worth the risk, or hope U of Buffalo rookie Branden Oliver (562 YR) and vet Donald Brown can carry the load. The Mathews decision looms large in offseason plans that also likely include upgrades along both lines.

Tennessee (2-14)...After a promising 26-10 win over the Chiefs in Week One, the Titans won only once more (a 16-14 squeaker over the Jags) in a massively disappointing season for first-year HC Ken Whisenhunt, whose stern, tough-love style apparently didn't resonate. It was the franchise's worst record since 1994 when the team was based in Houston. After giving up on injury-prone, FA-to-be QB Jake Locker at midseason, Whisenhunt gave an audition to LSU rookie Zach Mettenberger, who showed some promise but only had a few weeks at the helm of the offense before going down with injury. With Locker surely walking, did Whisenhunt see enough in Mettenberger to hand him the job in 2015, or will the coach look elsewhere at QB? There have been rumors that Jay Cutler could return to Nashville (where he starred in college at Vandy), and Tennessee does have the second choice in the draft, where at worst it could have either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston, if both declare as expected. Roster needs are many, however, with recent attempts to upgrade the OL and locating a featured pass rusher having failed. Lots of work to do at LP Field.

NFC

Atlanta (6-10)...In the end it was a pretty easy call for owner Arthur Blank to jettison HC Mike Smith, under whom the Falcs had regressed over the past two years after playoff berths in four of the previous five seasons. Atlanta stayed in the NFC South race until Week 17 in 2014 only because the division was so bad, and a 34-3 blowout by Carolina in the South-decider would seal Smith's fate. The operation became stale the past couple of seasons, and the new coach will have some reclamation work to do with a "D" that ranked near the bottom in all relevant stats. (Interestingly, Rex Ryan is apparently being given a serious look by Blank and GM Thomas Dimitroff, who is being retained.) Specific offseason target areas are likely to be along the OL to bolster pass protection and in the defensive front seven, where a pass-rush specialist or two could be used. The new coach will inherit a nice nucleus of offensive weapons, with QB Matt Ryan entering his prime years and a dangerous receiving corps led by Julio Jones and Roddy White. This might not be the worst job for a coach to inherit.

Chicago (5-11)...Where to start? Dysfunction with a capital "D" at Soldier Field led to the Bears hitting the eject button on both HC Marc Trestman and GM Phil Emery at the conclusion of the season. After finding their new coach and GM, Chicago must decide what to do with QB Jay Cutler, still owned $15.5 million in 2015, which could make him difficult to trade. The aging roster lacks speed and has glaring deficiencies almost everywhere. The bullet-riddled defense, however, is likely to be the focus in free agency and the draft, with safety and MLB likely to get plenty of attention.

Minnesota (7-9)...No playoff berth again in Minneapolis, but plenty of feel-good with the Vikes, who seemed to find both their coach (Mike Zimmer) and QB (Louisville rookie Teddy Bridgewater) for the future in an uplifting 7-9 campaign that was better than most expected. There were some disappointments, with the distractions of RB Adrian Peterson at the top of the list; a decision on what course Minnesota takes with AP will be a much-watched development in the offseason. Regardless of what happens with Peterson, expect the Vikes to look for more playmakers to surround Bridgewater, who appears a star-on-the-rise after completing more than 70% of his passes over the final five weeks and engineering four comeback wins. Note that the Vikes also have one more season in the Minnesota Gophers' TCF Bank Stadium before their new retractable-roof home, on the site of the old Metrodome, is completed.

New Orleans (7-9)...A candidate for league's most disappointing team, the Saints had a golden opportunity to reclaim the NFC South with no one in the division getting above .500, but a puzzling inability to win at the Superdome (where New Orleans lost its last five games) condemned Sean Payton's team to also-ran status. The defense was largely to blame for the collapse, and it remains to be seen if d.c. Rob Ryan survives a staff purge by Payton that has already included three different assistants since the conclusion of the regular season. It will also be up to Payton and GM Mickey Loomis to determine if the roster needs an overhaul or merely a few tweaks in the offseason. The Saints enter the offseason with limited salary flexibility thanks in part to the contract of QB Drew Brees, who projects a staggering $26 million against the cap.

NY Giants (6-10)...In the end, the season was a letdown for the G-Men, hoping for a revival with new o.c. Ben McAdoo, who imported the West Coast offense from Green Bay. Which seemed a decent fit for Eli Manning and the talent on hand at MetLife. But by the time Eli got comfy in the offense, and other weapons emerged, it was too late to make a run at the playoffs after a 7-game midseason losing streak. Along the way, however, the Giants discovered a new highlight-reel WR in LSU rookie Odell Beckham, Jr., who became an overnight sensation with his circus catches, while BC rookie RB Andre Williams also emerged as a force in December. Vet HC Tom Coughlin returns for 2015, though already under what looks like a must-win edict (also for GM Jerry Reese) from co-owner John Mara. The status of d.c. Perry Fewell remains up in the air. Improving the defense (especially vs. the run) will be an offseason imperative. Another situation to watch involves star DE Jason Pierre-Paul, a FA-to-be who has stated he wants to stay at MetLife but will not take a hometown discount.

Philadelphia (10-6)...What looked to be a near-certain playoff berth after a rout of the Cowboys in Arlington on Thanksgiving would instead disintegrate with three subsequent December losses that knocked the Birds out of the postseason. In the immediate aftermath, VP of Player Personnel Tom Gamble was moved out, with HC Chip Kelly now apparently controlling the personnel levers (supposedly much as Pete Carroll does in Seattle). Or, does the ouster of Gamble, hand-picked by Kelly, signal a rift with GM Howie Roseman? Could it precede a Kelly move elsewhere? (Owner Jeffrey Lurie would have to give his blessing to Kelly taking another job in the NFL while under contract, though Kelly could move back to the college ranks without Lurie's approval.) Stay tuned. Assuming Kelly stays, he will want more clarity in his QB situation, especially with Nick Foles having a somewhat disappointing 2014 before his broken collarbone. Mark Sanchez was on a one-year deal and will be a free agent, with no indication that the Eagles want him back at the Linc. Somewhere along the line in the offseason, the Birds will also likely address concerns at cornerback.

St. Louis (6-10)...Stuck in the NFC's (if not the NFL's) toughest division, the Rams never could overcome the preseason knee injury suffered by QB Sam Bradford, alternating between journeyman Shaun Hill and backup Austin Davis throughout the fall. There were some highlights, including home wins over last year's Super Bowl teams Seattle and Denver, and a road win at San Francisco, plus a 52-0 rout of Oakland, but consistency was always an issue. Moving forward, what to do about Bradford, who has lost an inordinate amount of time to injuries, must be addressed, but QB play was only part of the offensive problems that included too few big plays by the wideouts and the ground game taking to long to evolve (though Auburn rookie RB Tre Mason ran with some flair). In his three seasons, HC Jeff Fisher has been cursed by bad luck, but has yet to win more than seven games, and will likely be on the hot seat in 2015 if the Rams can't make a strong move toward the playoffs.

San Francisco (8-8)...We know why Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers decided to part ways, though continue to believe it is a most-regrettable development, as the fit seemed perfect on so many levels for the 49ers. Only it wasn't. Injuries and suspensions on defense and the season-long uncertainty with the coaching staff helped torpedo the Niners' chance for another playoff berth. The new regime will have to repair an offense that went wrong from the preseason, as the notion of turning Colin Kaepernick into a pocket passer helped undermine Harbaugh and o.c. Greg Roman. Beyond fixing the offense, the new coach and GM Trent Baalke are going to be dealing with plenty of big-name free agents who could walk, including RB Frank Gore, WR Michael Crabtree, G Mike Iupati, and both starting CBs. An interesting coaching name to spin out of the 49er rumor mill is none other than Mike Shanahan, at one time a Niner aide in the best George Seifert years and reportedly in a four-hour meeting with team officials last week.

Tampa Bay (2-14)...New HC Lovie Smith at least seemed to restore a sense of order to the franchise that spun out of control last season following Greg Schiano's dismissal, but Lovie's order was not reflected in the SU record that dipped to 2-14. Smith was not hired to oversee an extended rebuild project, so will be expected to show significant improvement in 2015 in an NFC South division that is full of question marks. With the first pick in the draft, the Bucs could certainly go for a QB (likely Oregon's Heisman winner Marcus Mariota, if he declares as expected), though Tampa Bay might be tempted to trade down as long as it can address QB issues that cannot be left to endure for another year with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. The Bucs are also in the market for a new offensive coordinator after ex-Cal HC Jeff Tedford had to step down for health reasons and QB coach Marcus Arroyo leading a collaborative, and often awkward, play-calling effort.

Washington (4-12)...In the end, first-year HC Jay Gruden narrowly missed losing his job (owner Dan Snyder has canned coaches after one year before) as the Skins stumbled to a 4-12 mark, their fifth season of double-digit losses in the last six campaigns. Where the Skins go at QB has to be addressed, because Robert Griffin III's skill set doesn't seem to match Gruden's offense; they either need to learn to co-exist, or one (or both) must go. Owner Snyder, for what it's worth, is also said to be losing his affinity for RG III, who has not looked the same since his most-recent knee injuries. At QB beyond Griffin, neither Colt McCoy nor Kirk Cousins appear long-term answers. Beyond the QB situation, the OL (which allowed 58 sacks, 41 in the last eight games) and the entire defense could be in line for a major makeover. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett has already been released, so Gruden is in the market for a new d.c., too.

[StarDust Bum]

Panthers starting DT Lotulelei out

January 7, 2015

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - The Panthers will be without starting defensive tackle Star Lotulelei for Saturday night's NFC divisional playoff game against Seattle after undergoing surgery Wednesday to repair a broken bone in his foot.

Coach Ron Rivera said Lotulelei injured his foot late in Tuesday's practice. Rivera did not say which foot is injured.

Rivera said Lotulelei wouldn't be available for the NFC championship game, but might be ready to play if the Panthers were to reach the Super Bowl. Carolina would need two road wins to get there.

''We will miss Star, but we have guys that will be able to step in and do a very good job,'' Rivera said.

Rivera said Wednesday he expects veteran Colin Cole will start alongside Kawann Short.

The 6-foot-2, 325-pound Lotulelei has been critical to the team's improved run defense down the stretch. He has 25 tackles this season, but is important because he takes up double-teams in the middle of the defensive line, allowing All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly a chance to run and make plays. Kuechly led the NFL in tackles this season with 153.

Lotulelei's best game came against Atlanta in the season finale when he had seven tackles and two sacks on Matt Ryan as the Panthers clinched the NFC South with a 34-3 win.

''He had a very dominating performance that game, winning at the attack,'' Rivera said.

''Star has really come on the last few weeks for us and has been playing real well,'' Kuechly said. ''It's unfortunate that he won't be playing. ... It's kind of been the theme to our season. One dude can't play and the next dude has to jump up and play.''

Cole has started 10 games this season for the Panthers and had 12 tackles.

''Colin Cole will assume a bigger role for us,'' Rivera said. ''He's been a solid and steady force for us, such a space-eater inside, holds the double team at the point of attack and helps to allow our linebackers to run.''

Rivera said Kyle Love could be active against Seattle. He was inactive for Carolina's 27-16 win over Arizona on Saturday night.

Panthers starting wide receiver Philly Brown missed his second straight day of practice with a shoulder injury, but did catch passes on the sideline. Rivera said Brown's status will depend on if he can demonstrate his shoulder is strong enough to allow him to block.

''We don't want to put a guy out there that can't protect himself,'' Rivera said.

Brenton Bersin would start if Brown can't play. If Brown is out, Rivera said he would consider elevating wide receiver Stephen Hill from the practice squad to be used as the No. 4 receiver.

[StarDust Bum]

Rodgers misses practice, expected to start

January 7, 2015

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Aaron Rodgers didn't practice Wednesday because of a calf injury, though coach Mike McCarthy still expects his starting quarterback to be ready on Sunday when the Green Bay Packers host Dallas.

McCarthy said the plan Wednesday for Rodgers was to stay exclusively in the training room. The team will evaluate again Thursday to determine if he can practice.

McCarthy said Rodgers otherwise is getting stronger, and that he is prepared with the game plan.

Rodgers first injured the calf three weeks ago in a win against Tampa Bay. He had to be taken to the locker room on a cart two weeks ago in the second quarter against Detroit before limping back on the field in the third quarter to help lead the Packers to victory.

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NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using the money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 20 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+16.65 units)

NFL > (111) BALTIMORE@ (112) NEW ENGLAND | 01/10/2015 - 04:35 PM
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using the money line against conference opponents
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.8 units)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON DENVER in the first half in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+8.9 units)

NFL > (117) DALLAS@ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play ON DALLAS using the money line in road lined games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+9.7 units)

NFL > (111) BALTIMORE@ (112) NEW ENGLAND | 01/10/2015 - 04:35 PM
Play UNDER BALTIMORE on the total against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the this season (+8.8 units)

NFL > (117) DALLAS@ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play ON GREEN BAY in the first half as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+8.8 units)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON DENVER using the against the spread when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the since 1992 (+12.7 units)

NFL > (117) DALLAS@ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Play ON GREEN BAY using the against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 33 Wins and 11 Losses for the since 1992 (+20.9 units)

NFL > (113) CAROLINA@ (114) SEATTLE | 01/10/2015 - 08:15 PM
Play ON CAROLINA using the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.15 units)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play ON DENVER using the teaser in games played on a grass field
The record is 34 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+30.7 units)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Play OVER DENVER on the total when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 104 Overs and 54 Unders for the since 1992 (+44.6 units)

NFL > (113) CAROLINA@ (114) SEATTLE | 01/10/2015 - 08:15 PM
Play ON SEATTLE using the against the spread in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

NFL > (111) BALTIMORE @ (112) NEW ENGLAND | 01/10/2015 - 04:35 PM
Line: NEW ENGLAND -7 ******* PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND -9
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (2)

NFL > (113) CAROLINA @ (114) SEATTLE | 01/10/2015 - 08:15 PM
Line: SEATTLE -10.5 ******* PowerLine: SEATTLE -14
Edge On: SEATTLE (3.5)

NFL > (117) DALLAS @ (118) GREEN BAY | 01/11/2015 - 01:05 PM
Line: GREEN BAY -6 ******* PowerLine: GREEN BAY -3
Edge On: GREEN BAY (3)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS @ (120) DENVER | 01/11/2015 - 04:40 PM
Line: DENVER -7 ******* PowerLine: DENVER -11
Edge On: DENVER (4)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Cowboys backers keep an eye on Wisconsin weather

Spread to bet on now

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)

“Front of the line bettors” are on Baltimore in this one, but it appears they may be shooting at shadows. Yes, the Ravens looked good in taking care of the Steelers in Pittsburgh. And yes, Baltimore has had recent success against the Patriots in Foxboro. And yes, the Patriots lost their last regular-season game. But like a spin of the roulette wheel, this is an independent trial.

New England has been in dry dock for a week and has had time to handle some needed repairs to its offensive line, which was a bit shoddy over the final month. And when the Pats played Baltimore over the last few years, New England was crippled by injuries to Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski. This time Gronk is ready to go. Whoever you like in this one, books probably won’t budge off seven.


Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

These aren’t the Dallas Cowboys football bettors have been accustomed. The old Boys would have figured out a way to throw away a playoff spot with poor play in December, or Tony Romo would have done something – anything – to turn a win into a loss. But now Dallas takes a five-game winning streak into Green Bay on Sunday, and Cowboy backers will be able to get nearly a full touchdown in what figures to be a grind-it-out taffy pull.

Temperatures in Green Bay are expected to moderate a bit by Sunday, but it’s possible that the game will finish in single digits, which could be a shock to the Cowboys. Not “Ice Bowl II” stuff, but still nasty enough. Early money is on Green Bay, but Dallas money may flood in late and move the line. Hang on a bit here and check out the variables later in the week.


Total to watch

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (40.5)

Plenty to offer here for both Over and Under aficionados. Under players can make an argument that Seattle’s defense is every bit as good now as it was at this time last season, and that Carolina can easily hang with the Seahawks because the Panthers haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game in more than a month.

But some Over players will jump at anything under 41 points (24-17) and figure all that’s needed is a couple of well-placed pass interference call to make dust of the Under. Either way, it’s hard to see the books adding a half-point to the scale.

[StarDust Bum]

Recent NFL history says Panthers are most dangerous team this postseason

The Carolina Panthers are the biggest underdogs on the board, set at +10.5 heading to Seattle for their NFL Divisional Round matchup this Saturday. The Panthers could also be the most dangerous team in football – if recent history has any say.

Carolina, at 7-8-1 in the regular season, joins the recent list of single-digit-win teams to tear it up in the playoffs. The Panthers’ 27-16 wild card victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 5.5-point favorites Saturday improved teams with single-digit wins in the regular season to 20-7 ATS in playoff games since 2008.

Carolina squeezed into the postseason with a one-sided win at Atlanta in Week 17, finishing atop the NFC South and earning an automatic postseason berth – just the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 finish to the regular season.

“The market has had a lot to do with it in the past, as lines have been overinflated going against these single-win teams,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who cashed in on Carolina Saturday.

Last year, single-digit win teams were a perfect 3-0 ATS in the playoff. The Green Bay Packers (8-7-1 SU) just covered as 3.5-point underdogs in a 23-20 Wild Card loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and the San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU) knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 as 6.5-point pups in the Wild Card Round and covered in a 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos as 8-point underdogs in the AFC Divisional Round.

The two most prominent single-win postseason teams in that seven-year span have been the New York Giants, who finished 9-7 in 2011 and rolled to a Super Bowl XLVI title on perfect 4-0 SU and ATS postseason record, and Arizona Cardinals, who went 9-7 in 2008 and finished 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS eventually losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-23 as 6.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl XLIII.

“I don't think there's any question it’s a result of the overreaction to regular season results,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy, who also won big on the Panthers this past weekend. “Outside of that, I'm not sure there's any particular reason why single-digit win teams cover at such a high rate. When the playoffs kick off the slate is always wiped clean and that gives a lot of confidence to underdogs with an 'us against the world' mentality.”

As for the Panthers’ chances against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the opening odds had Carolina as high as +11.5 and have since been bet down as low as +10.5. Seattle has won four in a row in this series, covering the spread in three of those games. The lone blemish came this season, with the Panthers covering as 6-point home underdogs in a 13-9 loss to the Seahawks in Week 8.

“The Panthers defense came into the postseason playing awesome and they had outgained six straight opponents, make that seven now,” says Fargo. “This week, though, we are seeing the typical single-win team getting a lot of points and the market is driving this number based on the poor Carolina record going up against the defending Super Bowl Champions.”

For those not wanting to deal with so many points, there could be value on the Panthers to win outright at CenturyLink Field Saturday. Teams with single-digit wins in the regular season are an impressive 17-10 SU since 2008.

Carolina is currently a +475 outright underdog. Just sayin’.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: NFL Playoffs biggest mid-week line moves

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots – Open: -7.5, Move: -7

Books opened with a half-point hook on this meeting between the Ravens and Patriots – two familiar postseason foes – and instant sharp money came in on Baltimore, trimming the half point off the line and settling the spread at a touchdown for New England. What happened after wiseguys had their say was a bit puzzling to bookmakers.

“After taking that initial sharp action on the dog, we’ve also started to see more and more recreational money come in on the dog,” Childs tells Covers. “I didn’t expect that money because our bettors have backed the Patriots in every one of their games since their dominating performance against the Bengals back in October.”

Childs believes the public’s betting interest in the Ravens stems from the media’s handy work, stirring up Baltimore’s past success against New England in the playoffs – almost the way a promoter would hype a heavyweight fight.

“For the first time in nearly three months, we’re going to need the Patriots,” he says. “And with them coming off a bye, and their major advantages on the defensive side of the ball, I have no problem going into this game needing the Patriots.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -12.5, Move: -10.5

Sportsbook.ag went high on the Seahawks in this Divisional Round showdown with the Panthers, and all of the early action sided with Carolina. According to Childs, it was a mix of sharp and public money, dropping the spread two whole points in the first four hours it was on the board.

However, the move from -12 to -10.5 wasn’t based solely on the exposure on the Panthers, with 12 being a dead number in the eyes of the book. They leap frogged the spread to Seahawks -10.5 and are bracing for what the weekend may bring.

“What that early money did is show us the way on where this line should be, and it belongs at 10.5 and the 11-point range,” says Childs. “Since getting to 10.5, we’re seeing some Seahawks money show and it’s been nice, two-way action at 10.5 and I don’t think we’ll be moving off the 10.5 any time soon.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers – Open: -7, Move: -6.5

Books are playing tennis with this number, opening at a touchdown and going back and forth between Green Bay -7 and -6.5, settling at -6.5 for the time being. Early money took the underdog Cowboys but Childs isn’t so sure the sharps are done having their way with his NFC Divisional Round war.

“No question, we have some serious liability if this game lands seven because of all the money we’ve booked on the Cowboys at +7 (-115) and Packers -6.5 (-110),” he says. “But by going to that key number of seven it’s giving us great, two-way action on this game because at 6.5, it’s nothing but Packers money and at 7 it’s nothing but Cowboys money. I’d prefer booking this game somewhat even with a touch of liability if the game falls. We’ll see what happens, but at this point I like how the money is coming in so far.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos – Open -7.5, Move: -7

Wiseguys grabbed the half-point hook on the Colts when this line went up and bookmakers trimmed the line to an even touchdown. However, money showed on the home side Broncos following that adjustment. Rather than go back to the original number, Childs says they’ve been juggling the juice on this touchdown spread.

“This is going to be an easy game to book, the number will remain seven for the rest of the week and we’re just going to have to adjust the juice from time to time, but I just can’t see us getting off of seven in this one,” he says.

Oddsmaker’s note: “In all four games we’re pretty exposed on all the underdogs in regards to the moneyline. That’s to be expected. It’s the playoffs and we’re starting to see more and more recreational money come in on these games. Just like the Super Bowl in years past, our customers love taking the plus juice and taking a chance on a big score by laying a few dollars in hopes the underdog can win outright, cashing a nice score at +250 or more.”

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Divisional Tips

January 8, 2015


**Baltimore at New England**

-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had New England (12-4 straight up, 9-7 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite (at even money, Ravens +7 has a -120 price) with a total of 48. Gamblers can take the Ravens on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

-- Baltimore (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) advanced to the AFC semifinals by going into Heinz Field and beating Pittsburgh and capturing a 30-17 victory as a three-point underdog. Joe Flacco threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Steve Smith had five catches for 101 yards. Elvis Dumervil had a pair of sacks on Ben Roethlisberger, while Terrell Suggs had an amazing interception. Dumervil had 17 sacks during the regular season.

-- This is the fourth time in six years that these franchises will meet in the playoffs. During the 2009, 2011 and 2012 seasons, Baltimore had to go through Foxboro in the postseason. In the first meeting, Ray Rice led the Ravens to a 33-14 win as 3.5-point underdogs. Two seasons later, New England prevailed by a 23-20 count but Baltimore covered the spread as a seven-point 'dog. Two years ago, John Harbaugh's team outscored the Patriots 21-0 in the second half en route to a 28-13 win as an eight-point puppy.

-- In those three postseason encounters, Baltimore is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. Flacco has a 5/2 TD-INT ratio compared to Brady's 3/7 TD-INT ratio.

-- During the regular season, Flacco completed 62.0 percent of his throws for 3,986 yards with a 27/12 TD-INT ratio. Veteran Steve Smith hauled in 79 receptions for 1,065 yards and six TDs. Torrey Smith is the speedster who can stretch the field, and he brought down 49 catches for 767 yards and 11 TDs.

-- Baltimore RB Justin Forsett enjoyed a breakout year, rushing for 1,266 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. However, he only ran for 40 yards on 16 carries against the Steelers last week. In fact, Forsett has rushed for more than 71 yards just once in the last five games.

-- Baltimore has won outright in three straight games as a road underdog, including scalps at New Orleans and at Miami before disposing of Pittsburgh. For the year, the Ravens are 3-2 both SU and ATS in five games as road 'dogs.

-- New England went 3-2 ATS in five games as a single-digit home favorite during the regular season. However, that stat should really be 3-1 ATS because the Pats lost outright to Buffalo as four-point home favorites in the regular-season finale when they rested many starters.

-- Leading into the Buffalo game, New England had won 10 of its last 11 games after a 2-2 start had some idiots implying that Brady was washed up and the Patriots' window to win another Super Bowl had closed. The only defeat in that 11-game stretch was a 26-21 setback at Green Bay.

-- Brady had another incredible year, connecting on 64.1 percent of his passes for 4,109 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio. After the 41-14 loss at Kansas City on Monday Night Football that brought out all the Brady haters, the Michigan product responded by throwing 18 TDs compared to only one interception in the next five contests. The last was against Denver and Brady outplayed Peyton Manning yet again in a 43-21 win as a three-point home underdog.

-- For the first time at this point in the season in a long time, Pro-Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski is healthy and New England opponents are paying for it. Gronkowski started only 10 games and played in 15, recording 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs. Julian Edelman had 92 catches for 972 yards and four TDs.

-- Baltimore starting DT Tim Jernigan and starting OT Eugene Munroe are both 'questionable' with injuries.

-- The 'over' is 9-7 overall for the Pats, 5-3 in their home games. However, they have seen the 'under' go 5-1 in their last six games (regardless of the venue).

-- The 'under' is 9-7-1 overall for the Ravens, 4-0-1 in their last five games. But they have seen the 'over' cash at a 5-3-1 clip in their nine road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday at 4:35 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

**Carolina at Seattle**

-- As of Thursday, most spots had Seattle (12-4 SU, 9-6-1ATS) favored by 11 with a total of 39.5 or 40. The Panthers are available for a lucrative +450 return at the Westgate SuperBook if they can win outright.

-- Carolina (8-8-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) has caught fire at just the right time, winning five in a row to make the NFC semifinals. The Panthers were an abysmal 3-8-1 going into a Dec. 7 game at New Orleans. They came alive at the Superdome, however, where they always seem to play well. Ron Rivera's team blasted the Saints 41-10 as an 8.5-point underdog. Carolina was sloppy but stayed alive in non-covering home wins over Tampa Bay (19-17) and Cleveland (17-13) to set up a de-facto NFC South title game at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta on Dec. 28.

-- Carolina went into The ATL and dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 34-3 clubbing. The Panthers won outright as 2.5-point underdogs behind a defense that held the Falcons to a season-low in points. The Carolina defense sacked Matt Ryan six times and intercepted him twice, including a 31-yard pick-six from veteran safety Roman Harper that silenced the Ga. Dome crowd with 4:18 left in the second quarter. Cam Newton ran for a touchdown and threw for another and didn't commit a turnover.

-- Carolina shook off a 14-13 halftime deficit last week to knock off Arizona 27-16 as a 5.5-point home 'chalk.' Jonathan Stewart rushed 24 times for 123 yards and one TD, while Newton threw for 198 yards and two TDs. The Carolina defense gave up only 78 yards of total offense and forced three turnovers. Charles Johnson had a pair of sacks.

-- Seattle has won six in a row while compiling a 5-0-1 spread record. All six victories have come by double-digit margins, including a 20-6 home win over St. Louis as an 11-point 'chalk' in the regular-season finale. Defense was the story for the 'Hawks, who forced three turnovers and sacked Shaun Hill four times. Bruce Irvin had five tackles, one sack and a 49-yard pick-six which ultimately provided Seattle backers with the spread cover.

-- Seattle leads the NFL in rushing offense thanks to the presence of Marshawn Lynch, who has run for 1,306 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC.

-- Seattle QB Russell Wilson contributes to the team's rushing stats as well. He has rushed for 849 yards and six TDs, averaging 7.2 YPC. Wilson has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 3,475 yards with a 20/7 TD-INT ratio.

-- Wilson's favorite target is WR Doug Baldwin, who has 66 receptions for 825 yards and three TDs. Lynch has caught 37 balls for 367 yards and four more scores.

-- Newton has completed 58.5 percent of his throws for 3,127 yards with an 18/12 TD-INT ratio. He missed two games in the regular season. Newton has also rushed for 539 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC.

-- Carolina rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin had a breakout campaign, producing 73 catches for 1,008 yards and nine TDs. Veteran TE Greg Olsen had 84 receptions for 1,008 yards and six TDs during the regular season.

-- Carolina will be without starting DT Star Lotulelei due to a foot injury. Lotulelei started 13 games during the regular season, producing 18 solo tackles, seven assists and two sacks. WR Philly Brown is 'questionable' with a shoulder injury and safety Thomas DeCoud is a question mark due to a hamstring ailment. DeCoud started 11 games in the regular season, tallying 34 solo tackles, 16 assists and one interception. Brown has played 13 games, starting three, and had 21 catches for 296 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Carolina owns a 6-5 spread record with three outright wins in 11 games as an underdog this season. This is the Panthers' first situation as double-digit 'dogs. Their biggest 'dog spot came in the win at New Orleans when they were catching 8.5 points.

-- Seattle has won seven of its eight home games, posting a 4-4 spread record. The Seahawks have been double-digit home 'chalk' four times, going 1-2-1 versus the number.

-- The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for the Seahawks, who have the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense (15.9 PPG). They are also No. 1 in total defense and pass defense. However, totals have been a wash for Seattle overall (8-8) and in its home games (4-4). The Seahawks' games have averaged a combined score of 40.5 PPG.

-- The 'under' is 3-1 in Carolina's last four games (regardless of the venue), but the 'over' has cashed at a 6-2 clip in its eight road assignments.

-- FOX will have the telecast at 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

No fear is motto for visiting NFL teams

January 8, 2015

No fear.


That's the motto for the visiting teams in this weekend's NFL playoff games, a brave stance indeed considering the hosts were a combined 30-2 at home this season. And that includes one gimme, the Patriots' loss to Buffalo in a meaningless season finale.

There could be some validity, though, to the bravado displayed by Baltimore and Dallas. The Ravens have won two of their three postseason trips to New England, and lost by three points in the other. The Cowboys are 8-0 away from Dallas.

''Our guys have been in tough stadiums against good teams,'' said Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who has guided his team to the playoffs in six of his seven seasons, and won the 2012 NFL championship.

''No different this week going into a tough stadium against a good team. The fact that it's playoffs and those kinds of things, and we played in a playoff game last week on the road, that helps the guys ... the rookies. It's the first time they have ever done it, but they did a good job last week.

''All that other stuff, it's how well you play the game in that three-hour time block against the opponent you're playing against.''

The opponent for Dallas is, of course, Green Bay. And the elements in the Cowboys' first postseason visit to Lambeau Field since the 1967 Ice Bowl.

Cowboys coach Jason Garrett recognizes the interest in Sunday's matchup for historical reasons, but understands his players might not.

''Oh I think we have guys who are football fans and know some history,'' Garrett said. ''But having said that, we've got a lot of guys that were born in 1991 or 1992. So it's like ancient history to them. The `90s seem like history to them if that makes any sense to you.''

The other visitors are Carolina at Seattle on Saturday night, Indianapolis at Denver on Sunday.

Baltimore (11-6) at New England (12-4), Saturday

The Ravens come off their first playoff win at Pittsburgh, so they will carry some extra confidence into the opening game of the divisional round. Joe Flacco has seven road playoff wins, the most by a quarterback since the 1970 merger.

Of course, he goes up against the top seed in the AFC, a perennial Super Bowl contender led by Tom Brady. One thing is certain: Brady and the Patriots won't be lacking in conviction, either.

''We're always trying to win the last game of the year,'' Brady said. ''We set pretty high expectations and I think we all have high expectations, but you've got to go out there and earn it. It's not easy and this is a first step for us.

''A lot of teams played last week, we didn't get a chance to do that. This is a week where we can really try to make an impact on this season.

Dallas (13-4) at Green Bay (12-4)

Despite the result of the Ice Bowl, after which the Packers went on to win the Super Bowl, Dallas leads 4-2 in playoff matchups. It's the first time a team with an 8-0 home record in the regular season hosts one with an 8-0 road record.

The Cowboys are 15-9 in divisional playoff games, but lost their past three. They bring a high-powered offense paced by league rushing leader DeMarco Murray, QB Tony Romo, receiver Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been battling a calf injury and has had limited preparation for Sunday. Rodgers' home passer rating of 133.2 is the best in NFL history. He's had 418 pass attempts and 36 touchdown passes at Lambeau without an interception, both NFL records.

Carolina (8-8-1) at Seattle (12-4), Saturday night

The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks know all about division winners with a losing record advancing to this round of the playoffs. They did it in 2010, and now they host the Panthers, who have won five in a row, including last week's wild-card victory over Arizona.

Defense has been the calling card for both sides, especially Seattle in the second portion of the schedule.

Looking to become the first defending champion to win a playoff game since New England in January 2006, the Seahawks led the NFL in total defense and points allowed for the second straight season. They also led in scoring defense for a third straight season and Seattle did not allow any fourth-quarter points in the past six games.

The Panthers have been strong defensively, too, ranking second to Seattle in points allowed (11.8) and yards yielded (238.2) since Dec. 1.

Indianapolis (12-5) at Denver (12-4)

Andrew Luck vs. Peyton Manning gets the main headlines here, and why not? The five-time MVP against the young master who took his place in Indy when Manning headed to the Rockies.

Luck has thrown for 300 or more yards in three straight postseason games and comes off a strong effort in the win over Cincinnati: 376 yards and a touchdown. He broke Manning's team mark with 4,761 yards through the air this season.

Manning, who led the Colts to eight division championships, two AFC championships and one Super Bowl title, has the Broncos tied for second-most wins (46) in the league since joining them.

Oh, and as for the home-field thing, the Broncos finished 8-0 at home for the sixth time. Minnesota has the record for most seasons with a perfect home mark with seven.