The Bum's 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Cardinals (11-5) @ Panthers (7-8-1)-- Arizona starts #3 QB Lindley here; they've lost four of last six games after 9-1 start. Redbirds is 5-3 as an underdog. Carolina won first two games and last four games, but went 1-8-1 in between; they scored 19 or less points in last five home games, are 2-3 as a favorite. Teams split last four games since Arizona won 33-13 here in '08 playoff contest. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-6 vs spread this year, 6-5 on road; NFC South favorites are 5-11, 4-8 at home. Cardinals are in playoffs for first time since '09; Carolina lost at home to 49ers in this round LY- their last playoff win was in '05. Eight of last eleven Arizona games stayed under total, as did last five Carolina home games, and last three overall.

Ravens (10-6) @ Steelers (11-5)-- Teams traded pair of 20-point home wins this year, after previous five series games were decided by 3 or less points. Baltimore led at half in only two of last nine games; they've outscored last four opponents 61-19 in second half. Ravens are 2-1 as underdogs this year, 4-4 SU on road; they lost in playoffs here in '08, '10, but won last four playoff games, missing LY after winning Super Bowl in '12. Pitt hasn't been in playoffs since '11, with last win in '10- they won last four home playoff games. Steelers will be without star RB Bell; they won/covered last four games, scoring 29 ppg- they've averaged 7.4+ ypa in each of last five games. Pitt won/covered five of last six home games- they lost at home to Bucs/Saints this year.

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NFL

Saturday, January 3

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Saturday doubleheader
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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

The Carolina Panthers went two months without a victory and are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record, but the NFC South champions are a solid favorite as they open the postseason against the visiting Arizona Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers overcame a seven-game winless drought by winning their final four to snag the No. 4 seed and become the first playoff team with a losing record since 2010. "The beautiful thing - record doesn't matter," coach Ron Rivera said.

Arizona was in the mix for the top overall seed in the conference until dropping its final two games to NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle to plunge to the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Lindley, who will be making his seventh career start and threw his first touchdown passes in last week's loss to the 49ers. “I don’t think anything different is expected of us in that locker room,” Arizona coach Bruce Arians said. “We don’t look at it as a team with a third-string quarterback. It’s our starting quarterback."

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and the line has moved another two and a half points to sit at -6.5. The total has moved down slightly from 38.5 to 38.

INJURY REPORT: Cardinals - LB Larry Foote (probable Saturday, knee), DT Dan Williams (questionable Saturday, foot), G Jonathan Cooper (questionable Saturday, wrist), QB Drew Stanton (out Saturday, knee). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (probable Saturday, finger), S Thomas DeCoud (questionable Saturday, hamstring), G Amini Silatolu (questionable Saturday, knee), LB A.J. Klein (questionable Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 67 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40's.


ABOUT THE CARDINALS (11-5, 11-5 ATS, 5-10-1 O/U): While Arizona is still holding out a slight hope that backup Drew Stanton (knee) can return, the reality is that Lindley will make his third straight start and attempt to build on last week's 316-yard, two-TD, three-interception performance - sans the picks. Michael Floyd hauled in both scoring passes while setting season highs with eight receptions for 153 yards last week but Larry Fitzgerald was limited to two catches while battling knee issues. Kerwynn Williams, signed off the practice squad after starter Andre Ellington was lost for the season in Week 13, has rushed for at least 67 yards in three of his four starts, but a bigger worry is the defense's inability to control the opposition's ground game. The Cardinals permitted one team to rush for 100 yards in their first 10 games, but have allowed five of the last six foes have surpassed that total.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS 7-8-1, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U): While Carolina had the good fortune of closing the season against four teams that finished with losing records, its defense surrendered an average of 10.8 points during the winning streak and limiting Atlanta to a season-low three points in last week's division clincher. Luke Kuechly - "The best middle linebacker in football," according to Arians - led the league in tackles for the second time in three seasons and is the backbone of a unit that was shredded for at least 37 points in five of the first 10 games. Cam Newton suffered two fractures in his back in a rollover car accident earlier in December, but has rushed for a TD in three straight games and has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in rookie Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Pathers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals' last four playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers' last four games versus a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: A slight majority of bettors are backing the Cardinals, with 57 percent of wagers on Arizona +6.5.



Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

For as great a rivalry as exists between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, the Ravens have never defeated the Steelers in the playoffs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore square off in the postseason for the fourth time Saturday night when the AFC North rivals meet on the Steelers' home field, where the Ravens suffered their worst loss of 2014. Back on Nov. 2, Baltimore absorbed a 43-23 setback against its biggest rival as Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes, tying Pittsburgh's franchise record.

Roethlisberger will be under center on Saturday, but the Steelers will be without Le'Veon Bell after the league's second-leading rusher hyperextended his right knee in Sunday's 27-17 win against Cincinnati that clinched the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. Sixth-seeded Baltimore snuck into the postseason party by winning three of its final four games, coupled with a loss by San Diego in Week 17. The winner of this game will travel next weekend to face either top-seeded New England or No. 2 seed Denver.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady to this point at Steelers -3. The total opened at 46.5, was bet up to 47 and has come back down to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Ravens - DE Chris Canty (proabale Saturday, ankle), LB Arthur Brown (questionable Saturday, thigh), DT Timmy Jernigan (doubtful Saturday, foot), T Eugene Monroe (doubtful Saturday, ankle). Steelers - S Troy Polamalu (probable Saturday, knee), DT S McLendon (questionable Saturday, shoulder), CB Ike Taylor (questionable Saturday, knee), TE Michael Palmer (questionable Saturday, groin), RB Le'Veon Bell (out Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an 81 percent chance of rain with a 12 mile per hour wind blowing towards the northern end zone. Temperatures will be in
the low 40s for the game.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-6, 7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Baltimore has not scored more than 20 points in a game since Dec. 7, but its defense has allowed an average of 15.7 points during its last three games, including a dominant effort in Week 17 when it held Cleveland to 259 total yards and 3-of-13 third-down conversions. The Ravens defense could be even more dominant Saturday with the return of All-Pro defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who was suspended for the final four games of the regular season for taking a banned stimulant. “I feel like I owe these guys,” Ngata told reporters this week. “I’m going to do whatever I can do to help the team. I’m definitely just ready to get back out there again.” The Ravens quietly set team records for scoring (409 points) and average yards (365), thanks in large part to Joe Flacco (career-high 3,986 passing yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs), Justin Forsett (career-high 1,266 rushing yards) and Steve Smith (1,065 receiving yards).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-5, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): The primary concern for the Steelers is the absence of Bell (1,361 rushing yards), whose injury paves the way for undrafted rookie Josh Harris, third-round pick Dri Archer and/or recently signed Ben Tate to see additional action against the Ravens. "I have confidence in anybody that's on our (53-man roster). If I didn't, they wouldn't be on our 53," said Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, whose team could rely even more on their second-ranked passing attack. Roethlisberger tied for the league lead with 4,952 passing yards, while Antonio Brown caught the second-most balls in a season in NFL history (129) and led the league with 1,698 receiving yards. Pittsburgh's defense will be on the lookout for turnovers, which has been Baltimore's downfall in its previous playoff matchups with Pittsburgh (11 turnovers in three games).

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home playoff games.
* Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Over is 11-1 in the Steelers' last 12 home playoff games.

CONSENSUS: A 62 percent majority of the wagers are backing the Steelers at -3

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Round

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

Cardinals’ weakness to dual-threat QBs vs. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton

Arizona gets a good look at two of the top running quarterback in the game four times a year – playing Seattle QB Russell Wilson and 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick in NFC West play. That experience with dual-threat QBs hasn’t helped the Cardinals slow those crazy-legged quarterbacks down, though.

Arizona and its blitz-happy defense has been burned by those two speedy pivots and overall has allowed 350 rushing yards to quarterback on the year (278 of those in the four games vs. Wilson or Kaepernick). Opposing passers have scrambled for an average of 5.93 yards per carry and now Arizona takes on a Grand Daddy of all dual threats: Cam Newton.

Newton’s rushing yards have been limited thanks to early-season injuries but the Panthers’ perfect weapon has been finding his footing with 197 yards on the ground the last four games, including 51 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 17’s win over Atlanta. Cam will have no qualms about breaking off some big gains when Arizona brings the heat Saturday.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

Ravens’ pass rush vs. Steelers’ offense without RB Le’Veon Bell

Pittsburgh has ruled out its dynamic pass-catching running back Le'Veon Bell due to a hyperextended knee suffered in the season finale versus Cincinnati. And that has Baltimore’s defense frothing at the mouth.

With Bell’s ability to break big runs and make plays happen after the catch, defenses have had to stay honest. That’s helped out a Steelers offensive line that has allowed 360 total sacks from 2006-2013. It’s a modern miracle Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have to eat supper through a straw. With Bell keeping blitzes at bay, Pittsburgh has only allowed 33 sacks – its lowest total since 2005.

The Ravens’ pass rush is back among the most feared in the NFL, sacking the QB 49 times this season. Baltimore has recorded 12 sacks in the last three games and got to Roethlisberger five times in the two games versus Pittsburgh this season. Without Bell, the Steelers offense is depending on big strikes to move the chain. Big Ben won’t have much time to let those play develop with the Ravens rushers breathing down his neck.


Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 49)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton on third down vs. Colts’ third-down defense

Cincinnati doesn’t want to pass the football versus the Colts Sunday. The best plan of attack is to keep Andrew Luck and his arsenal of receivers on the sidelines while the Bengals ground-and-pound with RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Only three teams have run the ball more than Cincinnati the last three games, with the Bengals handing it off 54.41 percent of the time in that span. However, there will be times when Cincy looks to QB Andy Dalton to move the chains on a key series – and Bengals backers will hold their collective breath.

Dalton has been a roll of the dice at times this season – showing zero consistency. But, there is one area where he’s predictable: third and long. Dalton hasn’t been sharp when facing longer third downs, posting a QB rating of 62.45 on third downs of eight or more yards. He’s thrown four of his 17 interceptions in that situation with four sacks and averages just 6.63 yards per completion – well short of the first down marker.

Nobody snuffs out drives like the Colts. Indianapolis is tops in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.17 percent of their third-down opportunities (just 30 percent inside Lucas Oil Stadium). The Colts have recorded 13 sacks, seven tackles for a loss, four forced fumbles (two recovered), and three interceptions on third downs this season.


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Lions’ towering receivers vs. Cowboys’ short secondary

Detroit’s offense was supposed to blow away opponents this season, but managed to put up just over 20 points per game and finished 12th in passing offense. Perhaps the Lions’ issue was that they were trying to pick on someone their own size. Detroit marches out a receiving corps that has no trouble getting the cookies down off the top shelf. The Lions have 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson, 6-foot-4 TE Eric Ebron, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew, 6-foot-2 WR Corey Fuller, and 6-foot WR Jeremy Ross.

Those targets will tower over a Dallas secondary that only runs as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church. The Cowboys boast small fries in CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot) and have been bullied by bigger receivers, especially tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 receptions to TEs this year – most in the NFL.

Detroit put up 488 passing yards on Dallas in Ford Field last season and it was the taller receivers who did the most damage: Johnson with 329 yards, departed 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham with 54 yards and Pettigrew with 31 yards. In the meeting before that, Johnson had 96 yards and two touchdowns while Pettigrew totaled 64 yards on six catches. Expect Matt Stafford to exploit this size mismatch once again.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 49)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton on third down vs. Colts’ third-down defense

Cincinnati doesn’t want to pass the football versus the Colts Sunday. The best plan of attack is to keep Andrew Luck and his arsenal of receivers on the sidelines while the Bengals ground-and-pound with RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Only three teams have run the ball more than Cincinnati the last three games, with the Bengals handing it off 54.41 percent of the time in that span. However, there will be times when Cincy looks to QB Andy Dalton to move the chains on a key series – and Bengals backers will hold their collective breath.

Dalton has been a roll of the dice at times this season – showing zero consistency. But, there is one area where he’s predictable: third and long. Dalton hasn’t been sharp when facing longer third downs, posting a QB rating of 62.45 on third downs of eight or more yards. He’s thrown four of his 17 interceptions in that situation with four sacks and averages just 6.63 yards per completion – well short of the first down marker.

Nobody snuffs out drives like the Colts. Indianapolis is tops in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.17 percent of their third-down opportunities (just 30 percent inside Lucas Oil Stadium). The Colts have recorded 13 sacks, seven tackles for a loss, four forced fumbles (two recovered), and three interceptions on third downs this season.


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Lions’ towering receivers vs. Cowboys’ short secondary

Detroit’s offense was supposed to blow away opponents this season, but managed to put up just over 20 points per game and finished 12th in passing offense. Perhaps the Lions’ issue was that they were trying to pick on someone their own size. Detroit marches out a receiving corps that has no trouble getting the cookies down off the top shelf. The Lions have 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson, 6-foot-4 TE Eric Ebron, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew, 6-foot-2 WR Corey Fuller, and 6-foot WR Jeremy Ross.

Those targets will tower over a Dallas secondary that only runs as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church. The Cowboys boast small fries in CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot) and have been bullied by bigger receivers, especially tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 receptions to TEs this year – most in the NFL.

Detroit put up 488 passing yards on Dallas in Ford Field last season and it was the taller receivers who did the most damage: Johnson with 329 yards, departed 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham with 54 yards and Pettigrew with 31 yards. In the meeting before that, Johnson had 96 yards and two touchdowns while Pettigrew totaled 64 yards on six catches. Expect Matt Stafford to exploit this size mismatch once again.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Bengals (10-5-1) @ Colts (11-5)-- Indy (-3) blasted Bengals 27-0 in Week 7, week after Cincy's tie with Carolina; Bengals had 135 total yards, were 1-13 on third down and lost badly despite +2 turnover ratio. Home side won last six series games. Bengals lost their last seven games at Indy- their last win here was in '97, when Kelly Holcomb subbed for Jim Harbaugh at QB for Colts. Lewis is 100-95-2 as Bengal coach but 0-5 in playoffs, with four losses by 10+ points. Colts lost four of last five playoff games, rallying back from 38-10 deficit in the only win; they won/covered six of last seven home games with only loss to Patriots. Cincy won four of five road games since Indy loss; they're 6-3 as an underdog. Last four Indy games, six of last eight Bengal games stayed under total.

Lions (11-5) @ Cowboys (12-4)-- In 48-year Super Bowl era, Detroit is 1-10 in playoff games, 0-9 on road, once losing 5-0 to Dallas in '70. Lions' only playoff win was 38-6 at home over Dallas in '91, in Wayne Fontes era. Since '97, Dallas is 1-6 in playoff games; Romo's one playoff win was 34-14 over Philly in '09. Detroit beat Cowboys 34-30/31-10 last two meetings, in '11/'13; Lions won two of last three visits here. Dallas won last four games overall, scoring 41.3 ppg; they're 2-4 as home favorites this year, 7-25 in Garrett era. Stafford played HS ball in Dallas, won Texas state championship; Lions won four of last five games, but are 0-4 as underdogs this year, losing those games by an average of 15 points. Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.

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NFL

Sunday, January 4

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Sunday doubleheader
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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 48.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are in the postseason for the fourth consecutive season but seek their first playoff victory in 24 years when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. To end a drought dating to the 1990 season, the fifth-seeded Bengals need to find a way to avenge a 27-0 drubbing at No. 4 seed Indianapolis on Oct. 19. Star wide receiver A.J. Green missed that matchup against the Colts and is questionable for Sunday due to a concussion.

Indianapolis is in the postseason for the third straight season since using the No. 1 overall pick to draft Andrew Luck, who authored the second-largest playoff comeback in league history in last year's 45-44 victory over Kansas City. "Suppressing Andrew Luck is going to be kind of hard," Cincinnati safety Reggie Nelson said. "He always starts off kind of slow and the scary thing is, he can always get his team going." The Colts have won six of their last eight, but the two losses came in lopsided fashion to a pair of playoff teams in Dallas and New England.

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Colts -4 and that has been adjusted to -3.5. The total opened 49 and is down a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR A.J. Green (Doubtful, head), CB Terence Newman (Probable, illness), TE Jermaine Gresham (Probable, leg), RB Cedric Peerman (Questionable, concussion), WR James Wright (Out, knee), WR Dane Sanzenbacher (IR, concussion). Colts - G Joe Reitz (Probable, ankle), RB Trent Richardson (Probable, illness), TE Dwayne Allen (Probable, knee), LB Bjoern Werner (Probable, shoulder), LB Jerrell Freeman (Probable, hamstring), WR Reggie Wayne (Probable, groin), G Hugh Thornton (Out, shoulder).

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Much has been made of the big-game failures of quarterback Andy Dalton, who is 0-3 with one touchdown and six interceptions in the postseason. Dalton has 19 scoring passes versus 17 picks this season, including a pair against Pittsburgh in last week's showdown for the AFC North title, which is among the reasons Cincinnati will lean heavily on rookie running back Jeremy Hill - even if Green is healthy. The 240-pound Hill was a bit player in the first meeting between the teams but took over the starting job two weeks later and rushed for 100 yards five times in the last nine games, including four of at least 147 yards. The Bengals tied for the AFC lead with 20 interceptions but ranked last in the NFL with 20 sacks.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Luck threw for 344 yards and a pair of TDs against Cincinnati in October, which came during a stretch of eight straight 300-yard games en route to career-best totals of 4,761 yards and an NFL-leading 40 scoring passes. Postseason standout T.Y. Hilton and veteran Reggie Wayne each were hobbled late in the season but expect to be ready to go while tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen must be monitored after hauling in eight TD receptions apiece. The Colts amassed a season-high 171 yards on the ground in the first meeting, but Ahmad Bradshaw is done for the season and Trent Richardson has all but disappeared, leaving Daniel "Boom" Herron as the lead back. Indy allowed at least 30 points in all five of its losses - including 42 apiece to the Patriots and Cowboys.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 61 percent of bettors are backing the Colts.



Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

The Dallas Cowboys have become synonymous with late-season swoons over the past two decades, but they appear bent on putting an end to that reputation. The Cowboys surged to the NFC East title in spectacular fashion and take a four-game winning streak into Sunday's Wild Card round against the visiting Detroit Lions. Dallas, which has one playoff win since 1996 and is in the postseason for the first time since 2009, averaged a staggering 41.3 points in going 4-0 in December.

The Lions came up short in their bid to secure a first-round bye with a Week 17 loss at NFC North rival Green Bay, but they picked up a huge victory off the field when the NFL reversed a one-game suspension against stud defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The successful appeal by Suh for stepping on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers sets up an intriguing matchup between Detroit's No. 1 rush defense and the Cowboys' second-ranked ground game, featuring the NFL's leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. "The game in a lot of ways may come down to ... that matchup up front," Dallas QB Tony Romo said.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as 7-point home faves, but that is now -6.5. The total opened 48.

INJURY REPORT: Lions - DT Nick Fairley (Doubtful, knee). Cowboys - LB Rolando McClain (Probable, knee), DE Tyrone Crawford (Questionable, illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (Questionable, leg), T Doug Free (Doubtful, ankle).

ABOUT THE LIONS (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U): Detroit allowed a total of 15.5 points during a four-game winning streak - all against teams with losing records - but was gashed for a season-worst 152 rushing yards in the 30-20 loss to the Packers. That more than doubled the per-game average of 69.3 yards allowed by the Lions, who ranked second in the league in points (17.6) and total yards (300.9) allowed while registering 42 sacks and 20 interceptions. Detroit's offense continues to battle inconsistency despite Matthew Stafford going over 4,000 yards passing for the fourth straight season and wideouts Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate each surpassing 1,000 yards. Johnson, who missed three games due to injury, torched the Cowboys last season with a franchise-record 329 yards and a TD on 14 receptions.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Murray ran away with the league rushing title, setting franchise records with 1,845 yards and 12 100-yard games despite undergoing surgery for a broken hand suffered in Week 15. Murray has rushed for six of his 13 touchdowns over the past five games, but Dallas has been equally effective through the air with Dez Bryant hauling in six scoring passes in the last three games en route to a league-best total of 16. The much-maligned Romo played superbly down the stretch to enter the MVP conversation, throwing for 12 touchdowns versus one interception during the four-game winning streak while posting a quarterback rating of at least 129.1 in six of the final nine contests. The Cowboys' defense, which ranked last in 2013, yielded only three first-half TDs during the winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 57 percent of bettors are backing the Cowboys.

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Sunday's Top Action

January 2, 2015


CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-5-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)

AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Indianapolis -3, Total: 49

The Bengals look for their first playoff win since 1990 (six straight postseason losses) when they visit the Colts on Sunday for a Wild Card round matchup.

Cincinnati is coming off a Week 17 loss in Pittsburgh where the team was a 3-point road underdog in the game, but it had won-and-covered in the previous two contests. Indianapolis toppled the Titans 27-10 as a 7-point road favorite for its fifth SU victory in six games.

Earlier in the season, the Colts crushed the Bengals 27-0 as 3-point favorites at home. Cincinnati had won-and-covered in two straight road games in this series before that shutout, but Indianapolis has won eight of its past 10 home meetings.

Over the past two seasons, the Bengals are 9-1 ATS off a division game, but are 0-6 ATS in road contests after covering the spread in two out their previous three games in that timeframe. The Colts, meanwhile, are 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past two years.

Cincinnati star WR A.J. Green (concussion) is 'out' for this game after getting hit in the head against the Steelers in Week 17, and two of his teammates are 'questionable' -- CB Terence Newman (illness) and WR James Wright (knee).

Indianapolis has five questionable players for Sunday, TE Dwayne Allen (knee), LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring), LB Bjoern Werner, G Joe Reitz (ankle) and OT Gosder Cherilus (groin).

The Bengals are coming off a loss to the Steelers in a game that could’ve given them the AFC North crown. QB Andy Dalton (3,398 pass yards, 19 TD, 17 INT) threw for 244 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the game.

Dalton has looked a lot more confident in the pocket over the last two weeks, but the team has little to no chance of advancing to the next round if he doesn’t limit his turnovers. He threw for just 126 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in the Oct. 19 loss to the Colts, and is 0-3 in his playoff career with 1 TD and 6 INT in those defeats. Dalton could have even more trouble in this game since WR A.J. Green (69 rec, 1,041 yards, 6 TD) isn’t cleared to play this Sunday. Green had eight catches for 82 yards against the Steelers last week, but he lost a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter.

RBs Jeremy Hill (1,124 rush yards, 9 TD) and Giovani Bernard (680 rush yards, 5 TD) will need to be more effective for Cincinnati. Hill rushed for 100 yards against the Steelers, and Bernard added seven receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown in the game. Both of these guys do different things for this offense, and both will have a major role against the Colts.

Cincinnati will need its defense to hold up, as the unit is allowing 27.5 PPG over the past two weeks and needs to play much better against this potent Colts offense.

Indianapolis will enter this game extremely confident after beating the Bengals 27-0 earlier in the season at Lucas Oil Stadium. QB Andrew Luck (4,761 pass yards, 40 TD, 16 INT) threw for 344 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. He’s also coming off a 160-yards, 2-TD performance against the Titans in limited action in Week 17.

Luck will need to be on his game on Sunday or the team will have no chance of advancing, as the running game hasn’t been there since RB Ahmad Bradshaw (425 rush yards, 2 TD) went down.

Top WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) played against the Titans after hurting his groin a few weeks ago and was a non-factor, finishing the game with no catches on three targets. Indianapolis will need Hilton to be healthy for this game, or Andrew Luck will have to turn to his other targets that he doesn’t trust quite as much.

TE Coby Fleener (51 rec, 774 yards, 8 TD) will be the one that Luck relies on most, as he is coming off of a performance against the Titans where he caught five catches for 56 yards and two touchdowns. WR Reggie Wayne (779 rec yards) and TE Dwayne Allen (8 rec TD) are less than 100 percent healthy, which puts more pressure on both Hilton and Fleener.

The Colts defense could ultimately decide whether or not they win this game. They allowed just 10 points against the Titans last week, but 42 against the Cowboys the week before. They’ll need to give Luck a chance to win this game, so getting the Bengals offense off the field is crucial.

DETROIT LIONS (11-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (12-4)

NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Dallas -6.5, Total: 48

The Cowboys look to ride their hot streak into a home playoff meeting with the Lions.

Detroit lost 30-20 in the NFC North division-deciding game at Lambeau Field last week, but the team had won four straight games heading into that one. Dallas, meanwhile, won 44-17 as 6-point favorites in Washington for its fourth consecutive win-and-cover.

These two teams most recently met on Oct. 27, 2013, when the Lions won 31-30 as 3-point home favorites. Detroit has won the past two meetings in this series, but the teams have split wins ATS. The Cowboys are a miserable 10-25 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their previous seven games since 1992.

They are, however, 24-10 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games in that timeframe. They’re also up against a Lions team that is 1-8 ATS after having won three out of their past four games over the past two years.

Detroit is in pretty good shape injury-wise, but G Larry Warford (knee) is doubtful to play.

Dallas has a slew of players who are questionable in S C.J. Spillman (groin), DT Nick Hayden (shoulder), LB Rolando McClain (illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (leg), OT Doug Free (ankle), DT Josh Brent (calf) and LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring). The team also just placed two players on IR -- DT Henry Melton (knee) and OT Darrion Weems (shoulder).

The Lions defense was disappointing in a 30-20 loss to the Packers on Sunday that could have given them the win in the division. Detroit’s top-ranked rushing defense allowed the Packers to rush for 152 yards as a team, and overall, it let Green Bay convert 8-of-13 third-down plays. The Lions will need to be a lot better against a Cowboys offense that has been hot as of late.

If this defense isn’t playing like it has most of the year, QB Matthew Stafford (4,257 pass yards, 22 TD, 12 INT) will need to have a big game. Stafford threw for 217 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against the Packers, but he was just 20-of-41 in the game. Stafford will need to be way more efficient passing the ball, and it shouldn’t be too difficult with WR Calvin Johnson (71 rec, 1,077 yards, 8 TD) on his side. Johnson caught four passes for 39 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. He is a nightmare to defend on the outside and should be in for a big game against the Cowboys, especially considering how he destroyed Dallas in last year's meeting with 14 catches for 329 yards and three touchdowns.

RB Joique Bell (860 rush yards, 7 TD) is going to be a big factor in this game. Bell rushed 13 times for 60 yards against the Packers last week and will need to be more involved against the Cowboys. Bell’s powerful style of running can wear out the Dallas defense, and that is something that the Lions really need to do.

The Cowboys are playing extremely well lately, heading into the postseason on a four-game winning streak. Over the past two weeks, their defense has been absolutely dominant, allowing just 12.0 PPG. But the competition is a lot stiffer with a Lions team that has Calvin Johnson lined up on the outside. It will not be easy, but they did hold an Andrew Luck-led Colts team to just seven points two weeks ago.

QB Tony Romo (3,705 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT) has nine touchdowns and just one interception over the past three weeks. His days of costing this team games with turnovers seem to be way in the past, and he is now looking to shed his past troubles in the playoffs where he is 1-3 with 6.2 yards per pass attempt in his career.

One guy that can help this franchise win its first postseason game since 2009 is WR Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1,320 yards, 16 TD), who has six touchdowns over the past three weeks. Bryant is nearly impossible to stop once the Cowboys get into the red zone, and Romo will be looking his way often in this one.

The Lions defense is the best in the league at stopping the rush, so Romo and Bryant may need to pick up the slack if RB DeMarco Murray (1,845 rush yards, 13 TD) is to struggle. Murray did, however, shred a solid Redskins rushing defense last week with 100 yards and a touchdown. He now has four touchdowns over the past three weeks, despite playing with a fractured hand.

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Sunday's Wild Card Tips

January 3, 2015


**Cincinnati at Indianapolis**

-- As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Indianapolis (11-5 straight up, 10-5-1 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 49. Gamblers can take the Bengals on the money line for a +160 return (risk $100 to win $160). For first-half wagers, the Colts are favored by 2.5 (-120) or three (even money) with a total of 24.5.

-- Chuck Pagano's squad won six of its eight home games while posting a 5-2-1 spread record. Indy has won three in a row at home, going 2-0-1 ATS. Regardless of the venue, the Colts have won five of their last six games, including a 27-10 win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale. They took the cash as 7.5-point road 'chalk.' Andrew Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes without being intercepted.

-- Indy has been a single-digit favorite 13 times, going 8-4-1 ATS.

-- Cincinnati (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had won four in a row on the road until dropping a 27-17 decision at Pittsburgh as a three-point underdog in last week's regular-season finale. Andy Dalton threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the losing effort, but he was also intercepted twice. Jeremy Hill ran for 100 yards on 23 carries. A.J. Green had eight receptions for 82 yards, but he also sustained a concussion.

-- Green didn't practicedall week and was ruled 'out' Saturday afternoon. This is obviously a huge development as Green is one of the NFL's top wide receivers. During the regular season, Green hauled in 69 catches for 1,041 yards and six TDs. He missed three games earlier in the year.

-- Dalton has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,398 yards, but he has a mediocre 19/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The fourth-year QB has led the Bengals to the postseason ever since getting drafted, but he's still looking for his first victory in the playoffs.

-- Hill has enjoyed a breakout season as a rookie, rushing for 1,124 yards and nine TDs. Hill, an LSU product who started only eight games, averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

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-- Marvin Lewis's defense is led by a pair of Florida Gators. Reggie Nelson has a team-high 62 solo tackles along with 33 assists. Nelson also has four interceptions, 1.5 sacks and 12 passes defended. Carlos Dunlap has a team-best eight sacks to with a pair of forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

-- Luck has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 4,761 yards with a 40/16 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for three TDs. His favorite target is T.Y. Hilton, who has made 82 catches for 1,345 yards and seven TDs. Veteran WR Reggie Wayne has 64 receptions for 779 yards and two TDs, while TEs Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener have both brought down eight TD catches apiece.

-- The 'over' is 9-7 overall for the Colts, 4-4 in their home games. However, the 'under' has cashed in four straight Indy games and five of its last six.

-- The 'under' is 10-6 overall for the Bengals, 7-1 in their road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Detroit at Dallas**

-- As of Saturday afternoon, most spots had Dallas (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) listed as a seven-point 'chalk'at even money. Gamblers can take the Lions on the money line for a +250 payout (risk $100 to win $250). For first-half bets, the Cowboys are favored by four with a total of 24.

-- Detroit (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) had won four in a row until dropping a 30-20 decision at Green Bay last weekend. The showdown at Lambeau Field determined the NFC North winner and the Packers earned a bye and a weekend of rest. The Lions failed to cover the spread for the third straight game, disappointing their backers as 8.5-point road underdogs.

-- In the loss at Green Bay, Matt Stafford threw for 217 yards and three TDs without an interception. Calvin Johnson caught four balls for 39 yards and two TDs.

-- Stafford has connected on 60.3 percent of his passes for 4,257 yards with a 22/12 TD-INT ratio. Johnson missed three games but still managed to haul in 71 catches for 1,077 yards and eight TDs. Golden Tate enjoyed a career year, making 99 receptions for 1,331 yards and four TDs.

-- With Reggie Bush missing five games due to injuries, Joique Bell emerged as the featured back. Bell ran for a team-high 860 yards and seven TDs, but his yards-per-carry average was only 3.9.

-- Dallas appeared to be in trouble on Thanksgiving Day when it fell one game back of Philadelphia in the NFC East race. The Eagles went into Arlington and smashed the Cowboys by a 33-10 count. Nevertheless, Dallas responded by winning four in a row both SU and ATS with each victory coming by double-digit margins.

-- Tony Romo has enjoyed a monster season, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 3,705 yards with a 34/9 TD-INT ratio. He was sensational in December, throwing 12 TD passes compared to only one interception in the last four games.

-- Dallas RB DeMarco Murray led the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards. Murray rushed for 13 TDs and averaged 4.7 YPC.

-- Dallas WR Dez Bryant had a team-high 88 catches for 1,320 yards and 16 TDs. Jason Witten was steady as always, bringing down 64 receptions for 703 yards and five TDs.

-- Detroit leads the NFL in rushing defense, giving up only 69.3 yards per game. Jim Caldwell's club is third in scoring defense, allowing only 17.6 points per game. The Lions are No. 2 in the league in total defense.

-- Dallas went undefeated on the road this season, only to inexplicably struggle at home. The Cowboys won just four of eight home games while going 3-5 ATS at Jerry World.

-- Detroit went 4-4 SU on the road, but it had a miserable 2-6 ATS ledger. As a road underdog, the Lions compiled a 2-3 record both SU and ATS.

-- The 'under' has been a money maker in Detroit games this season, cashing at an 11-5 overall clip. When the Lions have played on the road, the 'under' has gone 7-1.

-- The 'over' is 9-6-1 overall for Dallas, but the 'under' has produced at a 5-2-1 clip in its home outings.

-- FOX will have the telecast at 4:40 p.m. Eastern.

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Total Talk - WC Sunday

January 3, 2015

In Saturday’s installment of Total Talk, we recapped Week 17 and touched on the last 10 years of the Wild Card weekend. During this span, the ‘under’ has produced a 25-15 (62.5%) record which includes a 7-1 (87.5%) mark the past two seasons.

Is there a reason for the low-scoring affairs? There isn’t one specific reason but after looking at the numbers, you could make a case that the conditions have played a part.

In the last three playoffs, there have been four games played in a dome or within a stadium with a retractable roof. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in those contests.

2011 – Cincinnati 10 at Houston 31 (OVER 38)
2011 - Detroit 28 at New Orleans 45 (OVER 59.5)
2012 – Cincinnati 13 at Houston 19 (UNDER 24.5)
2013 – Kansas City 44 at Indianapolis 45 (OVER 48)

Why do I bring this up?

Because both games on Sunday will be played indoors.

Sunday, Jan. 4

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. I’ll tally the results each weekend and hopefully start 2015 in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

In Week 7, the Colts blanked the Bengals 27-0 in what was their most dominating performance of the season. Indianapolis racked up 506 yards of offense while Cincinnati mustered up 135 total yards. If it wasn’t for a pair of turnovers and a short field goal, this margin could’ve easily been 40 points.

The total on that matchup was 50 ½ and the number has dropped to 48 ½ for the rematch this weekend.

Cincinnati didn’t have star wide receiver A.J. Green in the earlier loss this season and he’s expected to miss Sunday’s game after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh. It’s a big loss for the Bengals offense but they’ve taken on a new look with Jeremy Hill at running back, which in turn has helped the defense stay off the field.

Since the beating at Indy, the Bengals closed the season with a 4-1 record on the road behind a defense that allowed an average of 12.6 PPG. Delving into last week’s loss at Pittsburgh, it should be noted that the Steelers scored 14 points on a punt return and a 63-yard busted pass play late in the game. Cincinnati has watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 on the road this season and that includes five winning tickets during the aforementioned span.

Holding the Indianapolis offense and QB Andrew Luck in check won’t be easy but be aware that the Colts have scored more points on the road this season than at home. Indianapolis has been much better defensively (17.8 PPG) at Lucas Oil Stadium, which has helped keep the ‘over/under’ at 4-4 this season.

It’s well known that Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 0-3 in the playoffs and he hasn’t played well at all. He’s only completed 56 percent of his passes and been intercepted six times. Dalton will be held accountable if Cincinnati comes up short again on Sunday but so should head coach Marvin Lewis, who is 0-5 in the postseason and the offense is only averaging 12.8 PPG in those losses. Despite the low numbers offensively, the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 during this span.

The Colts won their first playoff game with Luck last season and that was a very fortunate victory as the Chiefs blew a 28-point lead. What everybody likes about Luck is that he rebounds after mistakes and he’s made plenty (8 INTs) in three postseason games.

Fearless Prediction: Normally, I like to take the vice versa approach to totals when teams meet for the second time in a season, especially with the first result falls way below or way above the closing number, which is the case here. However, as much as I want to see Dalton get over the hump, I just can’t trust him in this spot and I’m going to play the UNDER 22 ½ team total for Cincinnati.

Detroit at Dallas

Of the four games in the Wild Card round, this is the only total that moved up off its opener. Oddsmakers sent out 48 and most shops have the number at 49 as of Saturday evening.

If you put a lot of stock into home-away tendencies, then you’re leaning to the ‘under’ in this matchup. Dallas has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 at home while Detroit has produced a 7-1 record to the ‘under’ on the road and that could easily be 8-0 if it wasn’t for 10 late points in last week’s 30-20 loss at Green Bay.

Adding more weight to the 'under' lean is the offensive numbers for both clubs. Dallas averaged 29.2 PPG this season, but the average fell to 24 PPG at AT&T Stadium. Detroit’s scoring has been down this season (20.1 PPG) and a lot of the trouble has been on the road where it’s averaging 15.6 PPG.

Defensively, the Lions have the better unit in this game. Detroit is ranked second in total yards allowed (300.9) and third in scoring defense (17.6 PPG).

Bettors that weight heavily on current form can make a strong case for the ‘over’ in this matchup. QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys closed the season with four straight wins and covers and they scored 41, 38, 42 and 44 points during this run. Detroit wasn’t as explosive but it did average 24.8 PPG in its final five games, which translated into a 4-1 record and a 3-2 mark to the ‘over.’

Unfortunately, we don’t have much postseason data for either team. The Cowboys have gone 1-3 in the playoffs with Romo under center and the offense has only averaged 18.5 PPG. The last playoff game for Dallas came in 2009. Detroit made the playoffs in 2011 and was hammered 45-28 at New Orleans. It was the first playoff game for Matthew Stafford, who accounted for four touchdowns (1 rushing) and two interceptions in the loss.

These teams met last season in a wild affair from Ford Field that was a very tough beat if you had the ‘under’ or the Cowboys. Dallas held a 10-7 lead at halftime and after some big plays, it built a 27-17 lead in the fourth quarter. The Lions kept answering and actually stole a 31-30 win on a Stafford sneak late in the final minute.

Fearless Prediction: My Best Bet for this matchup is OVER 49. For those of you following Total Talk this season, you’ve more than come across total systems that are profitable. One of them that I’ve written about is the “Road System” where you simply - Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road. It went 2-2 in the regular season and is 37-17-1 (68%) the last 10 seasons. Since this will be Detroit’s third game away from home, I’m leaning to the angle and expecting the winner to get into the thirties, most likely Dallas.

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AFC Divisional Cheat Sheet

January 4, 2015


Saturday, January 10

AFC – Baltimore at New England (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Patriots -7.5, 49

Baltimore Road Record: 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: New England blasted New England 41-7 last season as a one-point road underdog. These teams have met three times in the playoffs since 2010 and Baltimore has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games, all of the games being playing in New England. The lone loss came by three points (20-23).

Playoff Notes: Including last Saturday’s win at Pittsburgh, the Ravens have gone 10-4 both SU and ATS under head coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco. During this span, Baltimore has won eight games as a visitor which includes a victory in the Super Bowl. The Patriots have gone 18-8 with QB Tom Brady as the starting quarterback in the playoffs, which includes a remarkable 10-0 run from 2002 through 2006. Since then, the Pats are a mediocre 8-8. More importantly, they’re just 5-11 ATS during this span.

Total Notes: The Ravens saw the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season but the ‘over’ was 6-3 in away games. The ‘over’ went 9-7 for the Patriots, which included a 5-3 record at home.

Sunday, January 11

AFC – Indianapolis at Denver (CBS, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Denver -7.5, Total 52.5

Indianapolis Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Denver Home Record: 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: In Week 1, Denver defeated Indianapolis 31-24 at home but failed to cover as an eight-point home favorite. The Broncos led 24-3 at the break and 31-10 late in the fourth quarter before the Colts earned the backdoor cover with 14 unanswered points. These teams met last season at Indianapolis and the Colts earned a 39-33 win at home as 6 ½-point underdogs.

Playoff Notes: Since QB Peton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos are a pedestrian 2-2 in the playoffs and only 1-3 versus the number. The Colts are 2-2 both SU and ATS in the playoffs under Andrew Luck, both losses coming on the road by double digits.

Total Notes: The Broncos saw the ‘over’ go 10-6 this season, 6-2 at home. The ‘over’ has gone 9-8 for the Colts this season, but the ‘under’ owns a 5-3 mark on the road. The last two encounters between the teams went ‘over’ with totals ranging from 53 ½ to 55 points.

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NFC Divisional Cheat Sheet

January 4, 2015


Saturday, January 10

NFC – Carolina at Seattle (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Seattle -11, Total 40

Carolina Road Record: 3-4-1 SU, 4-4 ATS
Seattle Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: In Week 8, the Seahawks defeated the Panthers 13-9 on the road. Carolina covered as a six-point home underdog. Including this win, Seattle has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings against Carolina. The Panthers are 0-3 all-time at Seattle, with losses by 17, 20 and six points.

Playoff Notes: The Seahawks are 5-2 both SU and ATS under head coach Peter Carroll in the playoffs, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home. Carolina won its first playoff game last weekend under head coach Ron Rivera and QB Cam Newton. These teams met in the 2006 playoffs and Seattle defeated Carolina 34-14 at home as six-point favorites.

Total Notes: The Panthers were a great ‘over’ bet on the road (6-2) this season. Total bettors saw a stalemate with the Seahawks this season (8-8) as the ‘over/under’ went 4-4 both on the road and at home.

Sunday, January 11

NFC – Dallas at Green Bay (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

Opening Line: Green Bay -6.5, 52.5

Dallas Road Record: 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS
Green Bay Home Record: 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met last season and Green Bay earned a 37-36 win at Dallas as a four-point underdog with backup QB Matt Flynn under center. Prior to this meeting, the last encounter came in 2010. The Packers have won and covered four of the last five meetings at home against the Cowboys, all four victories coming by double digits.

Playoff Notes:The Packers are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in the playoffs with QB Aaron Rodgers under center. Two of those losses came at home. Prior to Sunday’s Wild Card win over Detroit, the Cowboys haven’t been in the postseason since 2009. QB Tony Romo is 2-3 both SU and ATS in the playoffs, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS on the road.

Total Notes: The Packers watched the ‘over’ go 11-5 this season, which includes a 7-1 record at home. Green Bay averaged a league-best 39.8 points per game at home. Dallas was a strong ‘over’ bet (7-1) on the road behind an offense that averaged 34.4 PPG.

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2014 NFL Playoff Results

January 4, 2015

NFL PLAYOFF BETTING RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away

Straight Up 3-1 3-1

Against the Spread 2-2 2-2

Total
Over-Under 1-2-1


Wild Card Round

SATURDAY, JAN. 3

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Arizona Carolina (-5.5) 27-16 Favorite Over (37.5)

Baltimore (+3.5, ML +145) Pittsburgh 30-17 Underdog Push (47)


SUNDAY, JAN. 4

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Cincinnati Indianapolis (-4) 26-10 Favorite Under (47)

Detroit Dallas (-6) 24-20 Underdog Under (48)

Divisional Playoff Round

SATURDAY, JAN. 10

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Baltimore New England - - -

Carolina Seattle - - -


SUNDAY, JAN. 11

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Dallas Green Bay - - -

Indianapolis Denver - - -


Championship Round

SUNDAY, JAN. 18

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

TBD TBD - - -

TBD TBD - - -


SUPER BOWL XLIX

SUNDAY, FEB. 1

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

AFC winner NFC winner - - -

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Ref: Official's 'better view' led to change

January 4, 2015

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) - The referee who overturned a crucial pass interference penalty against Dallas in a playoff win over Detroit says another official with a ''better view'' thought the call should be changed.

Pete Morelli said the back judge threw a flag on Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens on a pass to Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew in Dallas' 24-20 wild-card win Sunday. But the head linesman said there wasn't enough contact and that Hitchens was face-guarding, which isn't a penalty in the NFL.

Morelli acknowledged he should have waited longer to announce the penalty. He also announced that there was no penalty, but never explained why the flag was picked up.

Morelli says ''it probably would have been smoother if we got together.''

The Lions punted after the sequence, and the Cowboys drove to the winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

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It'll be Manning vs. Luck III next Sunday

January 4, 2015

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) - Manning vs. Luck III.

Peyton Manning gets to face his former team and his successor after Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts beat Cincinnati in the wild-card round Sunday.

They met last year in Indianapolis when Manning's emotions and the Colts both got the best of him in his homecoming.

Manning won't get caught up in the hype of the marquee matchup this time, suggested Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. He pointed to his quarterback's coolness in this season opener when Denver beat Indy 31-24.

''We had them the first game of the season and he was fine,'' Thomas said. ''It's a playoff game so it's a little bit different because if you lose, you're done and if you win, you keep going. I can't really talk for Peyton, but I think he's fine.''

DeMarcus Ware said he was especially appreciative for the Broncos' bye, which they earned as the AFC's No. 2 seed, when he saw it was Luck whom he'll be facing next weekend.

Luck has an uncanny knack for comebacks even when things look bleak such as in last year's playoffs when he guided the Colts back from a 28-point deficit to Kansas City.

The Broncos jumped out to a 24-0 lead on the Colts in this season's opener. But Luck led a frenetic rally that came up short when rookie Bradley Roby broke up a fourth-and-6 pass to Reggie Wayne in the final minute to secure Denver's 31-24 win.

''He's one of those guys that you have to play a 60-minute game against,'' Ware said. ''He has really good pocket awareness. He's always one of those guys, just like Peyton, where he hits the open guy the majority of the time. He plays a fundamentally sound game.

''He's one of those quarterbacks you don't want to go against, but the thing is you've got to make sure you get pressure on him and make them one-dimensional.''

Four months have passed since the Colts (12-5) and Broncos (12-4) saw each other, but Ware stressed ''it's still the same quarterback,'' so ''I think you've got to go back and see what you did well. You've also got to see how and where you didn't play well and make sure those things are corrected.''

Thomas figures to cringe when he watches the film.

With Wes Welker serving a two-game suspension, Thomas played the slot and caught four passes for 48 yards with a couple of huge drops that night.

Once Welker returned, Thomas went back outside and had another stellar season that included a franchise-best 1,619 yards and 11 touchdowns.

''It's great'' having Welker back, Thomas said. ''I tried to play the slot and it wasn't for me that early in the season. Having him back is good because he is one of the best that does it and having him, you never know what defense they will play because they will have to watch everybody.

''Hopefully we will have Julius (Thomas) there healthy. It's good to have Wes back and I can be back outside and try to do my best to play my best for the team and have a big impact on the game.''

Julius Thomas got off to a sizzling start with three TDs against Indy in the opener and a dozen by Week 10. But he hasn't reached the end zone since spraining his left ankle Nov. 16.

After one score, microphones caught him screaming, ''It's so easy!''

A healthy Julius Thomas could be a tremendous help for the Broncos in the playoffs - that's one reason the bye week was such a big deal to them.

''It was big to get this week out of the way with some rest and now get back to business,'' Demaryius Thomas said. ''Some guys are feeling better. That is the benefit of having a bye week off. It was real big.''

The bye also gave Pro Bowl safety T.J. Ward (neck) and top tackler Brandon Marshall (foot) more time to get healthy.

That's ''something that we need,'' Ware said. ''Especially just from a leadership standpoint but also having guys come back that are big playmakers for us.''

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Ravens eye Pats after dismissing Steelers

January 4, 2015

The Baltimore Ravens had just knocked off their despised rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it was time to distribute game balls.

One of the stars of the 30-17 wild-card victory Saturday night was linebacker Terrell Suggs, whose zany, between-the-legs interception virtually sealed a trip to New England for Round 2 of the AFC playoffs.

''We just gave him the game ball for the greatest catch in the history of football,'' coach John Harbaugh said. ''I toss it to him. What happened, do you think? He dropped it. He caught the one that mattered. Clutch.''

Clutch, indeed. Just like the Ravens, who sputtered into the postseason as the No. 6 seed before playing their best game of the year at a time when it counted most.

''We were on top of our game,'' quarterback Joe Flacco said.

It didn't matter that the Ravens lost 43-23 in Pittsburgh in November, or that they needed a 17-point fourth quarter in the finale against Cleveland - along with a San Diego loss in Kansas City - just to qualify for the postseason.

Facing the AFC North champions on the road as underdogs, Baltimore opened the playoffs with a victory for the sixth time in six tries under Harbaugh. The Ravens are 7-4 on the road in the postseason since Harbaugh took over in 2008.

''We've been on the road a lot in the playoffs,'' Harbaugh said. ''Maybe that's it.''

Playing in Pittsburgh was a mere inconvenience compared to what the Ravens have endured this year. The suspension and subsequent release of running back Ray Rice, the four-game suspension of Haloti Ngata, and injuries to a slew of cornerbacks merely primed the team for a postseason run.

''You don't let adversity get you down. When things go the wrong way, you stick together and come out and keep fighting,'' Harbaugh said. ''Our guys have done that all year. You know over time that pays off.''

Flacco, the revamped secondary and a shuffled offensive line all came up big against the Steelers. So did Suggs, a 12-year veteran of this rivalry who had never before experienced the thrill of beating Pittsburgh in January.

With the Ravens clinging to a 23-15 lead in the fourth quarter, Suggs was tumbling to the ground when he got his hands on a deflected pass thrown by Ben Roethlisberger. The ball slipped from his grasp, but Suggs secured it between his legs while rolling on the turf.

''Big-time play from a big-time guy,'' Baltimore linebacker Pernell McPhee said.

''Whenever my time is done on the field, they could say I never beat the Steelers in the playoffs. They can't say that now,'' Suggs declared. ''It was a great achievement, but it's short-lived. We all know who we're dealing with next.''

The Ravens have no fear about facing top-seeded New England on Saturday. Baltimore is 2-1 against the Patriots on the road in the playoffs, including a 28-13 triumph in January 2013 that preceded a 34-31 victory over San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

''They're a very well-coached team, a very talented team, so we just have to prepare hard for it,'' said linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who had two sacks. ''It's going to be a tough challenge, and we know that. But we're looking forward to that challenge.''

McPhee added: ''Bring `em on. We're going to work hard in practice this coming week and go up there and play our best game. We're going to play Ravens football. And with a great game plan, I know we'll be ready for anything.''