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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 49)

Texans’ takeaway vs. Colts’ careless turnovers

It’s hard to imagine the Colts could be putting up more points than they already are, if not for turnover issues plaguing the offense. Indianapolis is tied for the third most giveaway in the NFL, turning the ball over 26 times heading into Week 16.

The Colts were lucky those turnover issues didn’t cost them a win in Cleveland last Sunday, with Andrew Luck throwing two interceptions and the Colts putting the ball on the ground four times – losing two of those fumbles. Not the kind of careless play you want heading into a showdown with division rival Houston.

The Texans defense thrives on forcing turnovers. And, in a season in which the club has allowed 373 yards per game (25th in the NFL), those turnovers are keeping the stop unit afloat. The Texans are tops in the league with 29 takeaways: 16 interceptions, 13 fumbles.

Indianapolis has a banged up offensive line that MVP candidate J.J. Watt is chomping at the bit to expose. He had two sacks and a fumble recovery for a touchdown when these teams met in October. Getting pressure on Luck is the catalyst for more turnovers from the Colts.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-14, 45.5)

Jaguars’ sloppy seconds vs. Ravens’ hot second halves

The Jaguars have shown their claws in recent weeks, but only for a couple quarters. Jacksonville would make one hell of a first-half wager in that span, leading Houston at the break last week and trailing Indianapolis 6-3 at half three weeks ago. Then everything went to crap.

The Jags are giving up 13.8 points per second half this season, including 7.7 points in fourth quarters. Jacksonville was outscored 17-0 in the second half versus both the Texans and Colts in the last three games. They’ve countered with only 8.4 average second-half points - 5.7 when playing on the road.

Baltimore is blistering opponents in the final two frames, sitting second in the NFL behind the Colts with an average of 15.2 second-half points. The Ravens had a slow start to last week’s game against Miami, trailing 10-7 at half, then erupted for a 21-3 second half show. Baltimore is finishing strong, which is tough to do at this point in the season, scoring 11.3 points per fourth quarter in its last three contests.


Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 41.5)

Raiders’ third-down defense vs. Chiefs’ third-down offense

The Chiefs issues at wide receiver aren’t just contained to a lack of scoring punch downfield – having failed to score a single receiving touchdown on the season. Kansas City hasn’t been able to move the chains on third downs either – a passing down on most snaps – converting just 24 percent of its third-down tries over the last three games.

The Chiefs are 9 for 37 on third down during their current three-game slide, starting with a 24-20 loss to Oakland as 7.5-point road favorites in Week 12. They were 2 for 14 on third down in that game. Things get especially tricky on third and long, with QB Alex Smith averaging just under eight yards per attempt when needing nine or more to move the chains.

The Raiders are playing with a ton of momentum, picking up two wins in their last three games after starting the season 0-10. Oakland has held opponents to an 18.18 percent success rate on third downs during this turnaround, including limiting San Francisco to 3 for 11 on third down last Sunday. Even in the 52-0 ass-waxing to St. Louis, the Silver and Black left the Rams to go 1 for 8 on third downs.


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 55)

Cowboys’ 10-day break vs. Eagles’ Seattle-softened lineup

In football, there is an underlying phenomena that takes place when a team is coming off a game with a very physical opponent. College football programs used to slump the week after playing pro-ready Alabama, as did NFL teams following a hard-hitting clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The reasoning behind this theory was that the team was still feeling the effects of all those hits the next week, leaving the tenderized lineup to suffer a massive letdown. For those that poo-poo this school of thought, I present you the 2014 Seattle Seahawks and their past opponents.

Teams coming off a game against the hard-hitting defending Super Bowl champs are just 3-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS (excluding Denver, which had a bye after its Week 3 loss to Seattle). And, ever since the Seahawks and their L.O.B. got their swagger back, their last seven opponents are 0-7 SU and ATS in the following game. The Philadelphia Eagles are up next.

Philadelphia is coming off a 24-14 beating at the hands of Seattle and opens the doors of Lincoln Financial Field to a well-rested Cowboys side, desperate to stay in the postseason hunt. The last time these teams met, Dallas was on a short week following a physical affair with the Giants and got run of its own field. This time around, the Cowboys have had 10 days off to prepare and take a perfect 6-0 SU road record (5-1 ATS) into Philly.

An interesting note: Dallas was one of only two teams to follow a game against the Seahawks with a win and cover this season, beating the Giants 31-21 as a 4.5-point home favorite in Week 7.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 15

December 13, 2014


NFL PLAY AGAINST ATS TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 16, 2009 at home when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Colts are 11-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 30, 2012 vs a divisional opponent.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (16.57 ppg) since Oct 06, 2013 coming off a game where DeMarco Murray had at least five receptions.

NFL BIBLE ATS TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-15 ATS as a dog when they covered by 7+ points last week.


NFL BIBLE OU TREND:

-- The Steelers are 19-0 OU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick after a regulation game in which they had at 155-plus yards rushing.

NFL ATS SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams are 201-151-13 ATS as home dogs in weeks 15-17. Active on five teams in week 15.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 10-0-1 OU (9.64 ppg) since Dec 30, 2001 at home the week after a game as an underdog where they pick up first downs on less than 25% of their plays.

NFL O/U SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that have lost at least three straight games facing a team that has lost at least six straight games are 34-20-4 OU. Active on NY Jets.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The 49ers are 0-10 OU (-9.5 ppg) since October 29, 2000 as an underdog of at least seven points when they failed to cover by at least 10 points last week.

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Sunday's Top Action

December 12, 2014


MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-6) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -7.5, Total: 47.5

The Dolphins look to keep their slim playoff chances alive with a win over the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday. Miami hosted the Ravens in a must-win game last week, but was unable to come away with a victory, losing 28-13 as a 3-point favorite. New England, meanwhile, went into San Diego and picked up a 23-14 victory as a 4-point road favorite. The Dolphins hosted the Patriots in the 2014 season opener and won 33-20 as 3.5-point underdogs. Miami has now won-and-covered in its past two games against the Patriots, but both of those contests took place in Miami. New England has been dominant at home in this series, with its last SU loss being September 21, 2008. Since 1992, the Patriots are just 13-26 ATS in home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points.

New England is, however, 29-13 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent in that timeframe. The club is also 9-2 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the past two years. Louis Delmas (knee) is out for the year for Miami, while four other key defenders are questionable for Sunday -- CBs Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and Jamar Taylor (shoulder) and LBs Jelani Jenkins (foot) and Koa Misi (hamstring). New England's roster is pretty full, with only DT Dominique Easley (knee) and OL Cameron Fleming (leg) showing up on the injury report as questionable.

The Dolphins could not pick up a big victory at home against the Ravens last week and will now likely need to win out in order to have a chance at making the playoffs. QB Ryan Tannehill (3,044 pass yards, 21 TD, 9 INT) completed 70% of his passes in last week's game for 227 yards with a touchdown and no picks, but the Dolphins were unable to put up points when they needed them. Tannehill will now need to have a huge performance for his team to have a chance to win in New England. He threw for just 178 yards in a 33-20 win over the Pats in Miami and had two touchdowns and just one pick in that game.

RB Lamar Miller (782 rush yards, 6 TD) ran effectively in the win over the Patriots in Week 1, galloping for 59 yards on 11 carries and also catching four passes for 19 yards and a touchdown. Miller got just 12 carries for 53 yards in a loss to the Ravens last week. He’s been productive when touching the ball, but the Dolphins will need to feed him more often going forward. WRs Jarvis Landry (63 rec, 573 yards, 5 TD) and Mike Wallace (57 rec, 700 yards, 7 TD) are both capable playmakers, but it will be tough for them to shake the excellent New England corners.

The Patriots were unable to beat the Packers two weeks ago, but they rebounded with a big win in San Diego on Sunday night. QB Tom Brady (3,560 pass yards, 30 TD, 7 INT) continues to play at an elite level, throwing for 317 yards with two touchdowns and just one interception in the win over San Diego. Brady had a lousy game against Miami to open the season (4.5 YPA, 69.7 passer rating), but he is 5-0 against the Dolphins when playing in New England over the past five years. In those games, he’s thrown for 247.0 yards per game with seven total touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’ll be pumped up for a chance to redeem himself for the Week 1 loss.

Another player who has really done well for the Patriots is RB LeGarrette Blount (276 rush yards, 2 TD). Blount ran the ball very effectively against the Chargers last game with 66 yards on just 20 carries. He also caught two passes for 11 yards. Blount is the type of no-nonsense runner that the Patriots love to have, and he is thriving with the team after being cut by the Steelers. However, the New England defense has been absolutely incredible at times over the past few weeks. The club is allowing just 16.3 PPG over the past three weeks and will be really tough to beat if opponents can reach 20 points.

DENVER BRONCOS (10-3) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Denver -4, Total: 50.5

The Chargers look to rebound from a tough loss to the Patriots when they host another AFC Championship contender, the Broncos, on Sunday.

Denver beat the Bills 24-17 as a 9.5-point home favorite behind three rushing touchdowns from C.J. Anderson. San Diego was unable to pick up a victory, losing 23-14 as a 4-point road underdog against the Patriots. The Broncos won-and-covered in a 35-21 home victory over the Chargers earlier in the season on Oct. 23, and are now 6-1 SU in the past seven meetings of this series. Denver has also won-and-covered in its past three trips to San Diego and four of the past five. The Broncos are 20-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past three seasons and 6-0 ATS in road games on grass fields over the past two contests. However, they are 0-6 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive wins over the past two years.

Peyton Manning was held without a touchdown pass for the first time in 51 games last week, so he’ll likely come out aggressive on Sunday. RB C.J. Anderson (ankle), WR Demaryius Thomas (ankle) and TE Julius Thomas (ankle) and are all probable for the Broncos, while TE Ladarius Green (concussion), LB Donald Butler (quad) and RB Ryan Mathews (ankle) are all questionable for the Chargers.

The Broncos defeated the Bills last week, but the game was far from pretty for QB Peyton Manning (3,910 pass yards, 36 TD, 11 INT), who threw for just 173 yards in the game with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Instead it was RB C.J. Anderson (594 rush yards, 4 TD) who fueled this Broncos offense, rushing for 58 yards and three touchdowns. Anderson has been outstanding for the Broncos recently. In the two weeks before rushing for those three touchdowns, Anderson rushed for 167 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins and 168 yards with a receiving touchdown against the Chiefs.

Manning, however, won’t take a back seat to Anderson two weeks in a row. This game should be extremely pass-happy for Manning, who threw for 268 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions the last time these two teams met. Denver’s defense was excellent in that game, forcing Philip Rivers to throw two interceptions. The Broncos held the Chargers to just 306 total yards in that game and have now allowed only 16.5 points per game over the past two weeks. If their defense can keep this level of play up, it will be very difficult for anybody to beat this team.

The Chargers hosted the Patriots last week and were unable to pick up a big win, losing 23-14. QB Philip Rivers (3,407 pass yards, 26 TD, 11 INT) completed 60.6% of his passes in the game for one touchdown and one interception. He’ll need to be a lot better in this game, as it could end up being very high-scoring. One player who will also really need to step his game up if this team is going to make the playoffs is WR Keenan Allen (74 rec, 765 yards, 4 TD). Allen has been extremely inconsistent this season, following up a 121-yard, two-touchdown performance with just two catches for three yards against Darrelle Revis and the Patriots last week. Allen is this team’s most talented receiver and he’ll need to get back on track against the Broncos on Sunday.

The Chargers would also be wise to keep RB Ryan Mathews (330 rush yards, 3 TD) involved in this game. Mathews should play through his ankle injury, and was productive with his touches last week, gaining 44 yards on just 11 carries. He could help slow the game down a bit to keep Peyton Manning off the field. Defensively, the Chargers are going to have to make the most of their opportunities to get off the field. San Diego allowed the Patriots to go 7-of-16 on third down conversions last week, and was even worse against the Broncos when they last played, allowing Manning’s offense to convert 8-of-13 third downs. This defense cannot afford to let the Broncos keep drives alive on Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (7-6) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Seattle -10, Total: 37.5

The Seahawks look to improve their playoff position when they host the struggling 49ers on Sunday.

San Francisco had a golden matchup with the Raiders in a must-win game in Oakland, but it was upset 24-13 as 8.5-point favorites. The Seahawks, meanwhile, picked up a statement win in a 24-14 victory over the Eagles in Philadelphia, making them 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) in the past seven contests. These teams met just two weeks ago on Thanksgiving, when Seattle rolled to a 19-3 victory as a 1-point road underdog. That gives the club four SU wins in the past five meetings with San Francisco, and it has now covered in seven straight in this head-to-head series.

The Seahawks are also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when hosting the 49ers since 2009. But the Niners are 8-0 ATS after having lost two of their previous three games over the past two seasons, and 19-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. The Seahawks, however, are 17-7 ATS in home games over the past three seasons, and 58-34 ATS in December games since 1992. San Francisco has a host of injuries to deal with, such as CBs Chris Culliver (knee) and Tramaine Brock (hamstring), NT Glenn Dorsey (forearm), C Marcus Martin (knee), G Mike Iupati (elbow) and OT Anthony Davis (concussion), who are all questionable for this game. Seattle has only two players on the injury report with C Max Unger (knee) and third-string TE Cooper Helfet (ankle) both listed as questionable.

The Seahawks rolled to another victory last week, beating the Eagles by 10 on the road behind the stellar play of RB Marshawn Lynch (1,042 rush yards, 9 TD). Lynch rushed for 86 yards in the game and also caught five passes for 27 yards and a touchdown. He rushed for 104 yards on 20 carries when these teams met on Thanksgiving and will need to run the ball effectively to open things up for the passing game. QB Russell Wilson (2,729 pass yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) has been taking great care of the football in recent weeks, as he hasn’t thrown an interception in four games. Wilson is also coming off a performance in which he threw for 263 yards with two touchdowns and rushed for another 48 yards and a touchdown. He threw for 236 yards with a touchdown in the 19-3 win over the 49ers on Thanksgiving, and should be able to play even better in Seattle than he did San Francisco.

However, this defense has been the real story for the Seahawks, who have allowed just 20 total points over the past three weeks combined. Their secondary is as strong as ever, allowing just 190.4 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and the run-stop unit has limited teams to 84.1 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL). Seattle is going to make it extremely tough on a sputtering San Francisco offense to make plays.

The 49ers are going to have a hard time getting over a loss to Oakland that pretty much ruined their chances of making the NFC playoffs. They’ll need to win out to even give themselves the slightest chance, but it’s going to start with a must-win game in Seattle. QB Colin Kaepernick (2,910 pass yards, 16 TD, 10 INT) has been atrocious in recent weeks. He threw for just 121 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions against this same Seahawks team on Thanksgiving, and followed it up with 174 yards with one touchdown and two picks against the Raiders. Kaepernick will need to take better care of the ball going forward, but it will be difficult to do so against the best passing defense in the NFL.

Although it won’t be much easier to get it going against this elite running defense either, the 49ers have a better chance of beating the Seahawks with RB Frank Gore (775 yards, 2 TD) than they do Kaepernick. Gore was bottled up by Seattle in Week 13 (28 yards on 10 carries), but ran very effectively against the Raiders, piling up 63 yards on just 12 carries (5.3 YPC). San Francisco will need to feed him more often in this game. Defensively, the 49ers are still pretty strong, allowing only 211.2 passing yards per game (4th in NFL) and 97.2 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). However, Raiders rookie QB Derek Carr did pick apart their secondary last week, and they’ll need to shore things up back there to deal with the dual-threat Wilson.

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Sharp Moves - Week 15

December 11, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 15!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #310) Atlanta +2 – The Steelers have one of those teams which you can read in our opinion. They play to the level of their competition all the time. Just as a home game against the New Orleans Saints a few weeks ago felt like a loss waiting to happen, this is the same sort of game. Atlanta and New Orleans are largely the same team, though the Falcons are probably a bit more dangerous as long as WR Julio Jones is healthy. We hate the fact that RB Le'Veon Bell has touched the ball over 80 times in his last three games, and he seems destined to have an off game. If this is the duel where he isn't on his game, it's going to be really tough to win at the Georgia Dome, where the Falcons are a little bit of bad luck this year away from being a dominating team.

Opening Line: Atlanta +2.5
Current Line: Atlanta +2
Public Betting Percentage: 57% on Pittsburgh

(Rotation #322) Buffalo +4.5 – For the second straight week, the Bills are going to be sharp, and for the second straight week, they very well could figure out how to stay inside of the number against a superior team. Remember that what we have seen out of Green Bay of late has mostly been thanks to strong performances at Lambeau Field. It's much different going on the road in December against desperate teams which need to win to keep their seasons alive. Yes, the matchup of QB Aaron Rodgers vs. QB Kyle Orton is a scary proposition, but remember that the Buffalo defensive line is one of the best in the league. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when he is on the run, but he could be under too much pressure in one of the loudest stadiums in the league on Sunday, too.

Opening Line: Buffalo +5
Current Line: Buffalo +4.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Green Bay

(Rotation #319) Washington +6.5 – Ugh. No one wants to bet on the Redskins right now. They're literally what would happen when a train wreck runs into a dumpster fire, and they probably aren't going to win another game this year. We all saw the Giants beat up on the Tennessee Titans last week, and all of a sudden, we have renewed confidence that the G-Men are going to come out and roll over a bad Washington squad. Then again, we have confidence that New York was going to roll over the Jacksonville Jaguars, too…

Opening Line: Washington +6.5
Current Line: Washington +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on New York

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SNF - Cowboys at Eagles

December 12, 2014


DALLAS COWBOYS (9-4) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 55

Division rivals battle for first place in the NFC East when the Cowboys visit the Eagles on Sunday night.

Dallas dominated the Bears 41-28 in Chicago last Thursday behind DeMarco Murray’s 179 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Philadelphia, meanwhile, lost 24-14 as 1-point home underdog against the Seahawks. These division foes are meeting for the second time in three weeks after the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, winning 33-10 as three-point road underdogs. However, Dallas has been extremely successful on the road in this head-to-head series, winning four of the past five meetings in Philly SU and both winning and covering in its past two trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in road games after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. However, the Eagles are 34-19 ATS after being outgained by opponents by 100 or more total yards in their last game since 1992. QB Mark Sanchez will need to rebound in this one after throwing for just 96 yards last week. The injury lists aren't too bad for this game, but Dallas has DE Demarcus Lawrence (chest), LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring) and S Jeff Heath (thumb) all questionable for Sunday night, while Philly's only new injury is TE Trey Burton, who is questionable with an injured hamstring.

The Cowboys are coming off of a solid victory in Chicago, winning the game behind the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,606 rush yards, 9 TD). In the loss to the Eagles in Dallas two weeks ago, Murray rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. The Cowboys will look to ride Murray more in this game, and he should be able to find some bigger holes against the league’s 18th-ranked rushing defense. QB Tony Romo (2,923 pass yards, 25 TD, 8 INT) threw for 205 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in the win over the Bears last week. He will need to remain cautious with the ball and make high percentage throws in this game, as the Eagles picked him off twice in their last meeting.

Looking WR Dez Bryant’s (73 rec, 1,034 yards, 10 TD) way more often could be a good start for Romo, as he targeted his top receiver just seven times in the Week 13 meeting. Bryant is as tough of a cover as any receiver in the league and Romo will need to utilize him if Dallas is going to win this game. Defensively, the Cowboys are allowing 30.5 PPG over their past two weeks. They will need to clean things up against this potent Philadelphia offense.

The Eagles hosted the Seahawks last week and just couldn’t get anything going offensively against Seattle’s elite defense. QB Mark Sanchez (1,500 pass yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) struggled in the game, but he did throw for 217 yards with a touchdown and no picks against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. He also rushed for a touchdown. Sanchez and the Eagles had plenty of success getting the ball out quickly, and they’ll need to continue to do so against a Dallas defense that is really struggling. RB LeSean McCoy (1,068 yards, 4 TD) had a huge game when these teams met on Thanksgiving, taking 25 handoffs and rushing for 159 yards with a touchdown. The Eagles are going to feed McCoy often in this game, and he should be able to really put up some huge numbers against this Dallas defense that is seemingly getting worse each week.

WRs Jeremy Maclin (74 rec, 1,109 yards, 10 TD) and Jordan Matthews (56 rec, 709 yards, 7 TD) should be able to find plenty of space to operate with against a Dallas defense that is allowing 251.9 passing yards per game (25th in NFL). The Eagles defense is a nightmare to play against this season, picking off opposing quarterbacks 10 times while also forcing a league-high 21 fumbles. They’ve recovered an NFL-best 14 of them, and will certainly be looking to put pressure on Tony Romo in this game.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 15

December 13, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 15 Picks (# of selections)

1) Buffalo +4.5 (377)
2) Dallas +3 (341)
3) New England -7.5 (324)
4) Indianapolis -6.5 (320)
5) San Francisco +10 (306)

Week 14 Results

1) New England -3.5 WIN
2) Miami -2.5 LOSS
3) Seattle +1 WIN
4) St. Louis -2.5 WIN
5) Indianapolis -3.5 LOSS

Week 13 Results

1) Arizona (-2.5) - LOSS
2) N.Y. Giants (-2.5) - LOSS
3) Baltimore (-5.5) - LOSS
4) Cincinnati (-3.5) - LOSS
5) Buffalo (-2.5) - WIN

Week 12 Results

1) Seattle (-6.5) - WIN
2) Dallas (-3.5) - LOSS
3) New England (-7) - WIN
4) N.Y. Jets (+4.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (+3.5) - WIN

Week 11 Results

1) New England (+3) - WIN
2) Kansas City (-1.5) - WIN
3) Green Bay (-6) - WIN
4) Cleveland (-3) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 10 Results

1) Detroit (-2.5) - WIN
2) Green Bay (-7) - WIN
3) New Orleans (-5) - LOSS
4) Kansas City (-2) - WIN
5) N.Y. Jets (+5) - WIN

Week 9 Results

1) Arizona (+3.5) - WIN
2) San Diego (+1.5) - LOSS
3) Philadelphia (-2) - WIN
4) New England (+3) - WIN
5) Baltimore (-1) - LOSS

Week 8 Results

1) Indianapolis (-3) - LOSS
2) Kansas City (-6.5) - WIN
3) Houston (-2) - WIN
4) Baltimore (+1) - LOSS
5) New Orleans (-1.5) - WIN

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SUPERCONTEST WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%
5 2-3 15-10 60%
6 2-3 17-13 57%
7 3-2 20-15 57%
8 3-2 23-17 58%
9 3-2 26-19 57%
10 4-1 30-20 60%
11 3-2 33-22 60%
12 3-2 36-24 60%
13 1-4 37-28 57%
14 3-2 40-30 57%
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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Total Talk - Week 15

December 13, 2014


Week 14 Recap

Even though the week started and ended with a pair of shootouts – Dallas 41 Chicago 28 and Green Bay 43 Atlanta 37 -- the ‘under’ still managed to produce a 10-6 record in Week 14. On the season, the ‘under’ has gone 104-103-1.

System Check

Nothing’s guaranteed in this business and those following the “Thursday Night Total” system last Sunday were well aware of that. For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Since the 49ers hosted the Seahawks on Thanksgiving Day in the primetime affair, the system called for an ‘over’ bet in San Francisco’s ensuing game.

Unfortunately, Oakland defeated San Francisco 24-13 last Sunday and the combined 37 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 40 ½. Some shops closed at 40 and I’m sure a handful of bettors were upset that the Raiders didn’t kick a late field goal. While that move was a little questionable, your frustration should clearly be directed at San Francisco.

As former Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green once uttered, “They are what we thought they were….”

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has looked horrendous at times this season and he deserves a lot of the blame but at some point you have to look at the coaching. To put things in perspective, San Francisco is averaging 5.8 points in the second-half of games this season, which is tied with the New York Jets for the worst scoring output.

Jim Harbaugh receives a lot of attention and I believe he’s a good coach, but where are the adjustments? You could easily argue that this year’s offense has more skilled players than the last three San Francisco teams that all went to the NFC Championship.

Despite the 49ers-Raiders going ‘under’ last Sunday, the ‘over’ angle still owns an impressive 9-3 (75%) mark this season and 24-5-1 (82.7%) dating back to last year.

This week, the angle applies to the Monday matchup between the Saints and Bears since Chicago hosted Dallas at Soldier Field in Thursday’s Week 14 matchup.

Shout out to Shutouts

In last week’s installment, I touched on shutouts in the NFL and how rare they occur. We’ve seen six shutouts this season, which are listed below.

Week 5 - Jets 0 at Chargers 31 (Lost 17-31 vs. Denver)
Week 6 - Giants 0 at Eagles 27 (Lost 21-31 at Dallas)
Week 7 - Bengals 0 at Colts 27 (Won 27-24 vs. Baltimore)
Week 9 - Chargers 0 at Dolphins 37 (Won 13-6 vs. Oakland)
Week 13 - Raiders 0 at Rams 52 (Won 24-13 vs. San Francisco)
Week 14 – Redskins 0 vs. Rams 24 (Pending at N.Y. Giants)

Based on the above, you can see that teams have rebounded off the humbling loss this season with decent offensive outputs. Teams off shutout losses are averaging 20.6 points per game in their next game.

Washington fits this week when it visits the N.Y. Giants. Normally I wouldn’t tell you to back the Redskins considering how much of a mess they are but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them eclipse their team total (20 ½) on Sunday. Make a note that Washington is averaging more points on the road (20.9) than at home (16.3) this season.

Divisional Battles

Including last Thursday’s matchup between Arizona and St. Louis, Week 15 has 11 divisional contests, with 10 of them being played on Sunday. My quick handicap provided below.

Oakland at Kansas City: The last four meetings between the pair at Arrowhead Stadium have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0-1. Including last week, the Raiders have scored 20-plus points four times. The following game, they’ve put up 13, 17 and 0 points. With KC’s offense struggling recently has me expecting a low-scoring affair.

Houston at Indianapolis: Since QB Andrew Luck joined the Colts, they’ve scored 27, 25 and 33 points in three meetings against Houston. The Texans defense has been better of late albeit against teams with struggling attacks (Browns, Bengals, Titans, Jaguar). Surprisingly, Colts have been better statistically on the road.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: Hard to handicap this side and total because you really don’t know what to expect from Browns QB Johnny Manziel, who will likely make big plays, both good and bad. The home-away total tendencies for both Cleveland (5-2 Under) and Cincinnati (5-1 Under) make it tough to argue the ‘over’ here.

Miami at New England: A lot has changed since the Dolphins beat up the Patriots 33-20 in Week 1. New England’s offensive line has improved and so has its defense. The Patriots were on a great ‘over’ run (7-0) but the ‘under’ has cashed in their last three games. Miami has been a solid ‘under’ look (5-2) on the road and prior to their outcome in Week 1, the last four meetings between the pair went ‘under’ the number.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 20-14 in Week 1 without QB Cam Newton at quarterback. Fast forward to this Sunday and Carolina won’t have him again due to his car accident earlier this week. The total has been knocked down from 43 to 41 at most books and that appears to be the right move.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: New York scored a season-high 45 points against Washington 45-14 in a Week 4 matchup played on Thursday. The ‘over’ (45) snapped a six-game streak of ‘under’ winners in this series. Meaningless games should be avoided but based on the above (Shutout Factor), I expect the dysfunctional Redskins to get on the board Sunday.

Minnesota at Detroit: This total opened 44 and as of Friday morning, the number dropped to 41 ½ at CRIS. Honestly, I don’t know why but somebody hit it pretty good at the offshore book. Earlier in the season, Detroit beat Minnesota 17-3 on the road. The Lions watched the ‘under’ go 9-2 in their first 11 games but the ‘over’ has cashed in two straight with Detroit scoring 34 points in both contests. Coincidentally, the Vikings have scored 30-plus the last two weeks (31, 30) which is why I’m questioning the line move down.

Denver at San Diego: In the last 10 meetings between this pair, bettors have seen a minimum of 47 combined points scored eight times. Despite those numbers, the ‘over/under’ has gone 5-5 and largely due to high totals. This week is no different with the number hovering between 50 and 51. Denver isn’t that explosive on the road (24.8 PPG) and San Diego’s scoring (22.5 PPG) is down this season.

San Francisco at Seattle: This is the lowest total (38) on the board in Week 15 and it should be. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven meetings between the two teams. I’m not going to invest in this matchup because I can really see Pete Carroll and the ‘Hawks hammering the final nail in Harbaugh’s coffin in this nationally televised game.

Dallas at Philadelphia: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s outcome between the Cardinals and Rams, the ‘over’ has gone 31-13 (70%) in primetime games this season. Week 15 has four games with totals listed in the fifties and that includes this week’s SNF and MNF matchups.

Dallas at Philadelphia: The ‘under’ is 3-0 in the last three games in this series and the road team has won all three too. Super high total (56) for a divisional game but certainly doable. Philadelphia beat Dallas 33-10 on Thanksgiving Day and I would expect the Cowboys to rebound. Why? Dallas is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) on the road this season and its averaging 32.2 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1. The Eagles were held to a season-low 14 points last week against the Seahawks and the Cowboys aren’t in the same class as them.

New Orleans at Chicago: This total is ranging between 53 and 54 points and I believe you go ‘over’ in this game or pass all together. In their last three games, the Saints (35.7 PPG) and Bears (29.3 PPG) have both been torched defensively. Along with those numbers, both teams have offensive units that like to sling the rock. Barring serious weather conditions, which is very possible, I would be surprised to see the winner score less than 30 points.

Fearless Predictions

The inept play from San Francisco and a couple of missed two-point conversions by the Colts offense kept the bankroll in negative ($20) last week, but we’re still head ahead ($150) on the season. Hopefully the last three weeks brings more cheer than jeer. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Minnesota-Detroit 41 ½

Best Under: Oakland-Kansas City 41 ½

Best Team Total: Dallas Over 26

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 64 ½ Pittsburgh-Atlanta
Over 34 ½ Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 56 ½ Miami-New England

[StarDust Bum]

Week 15 Tip Sheet

December 13, 2014

Steelers (-2 ½, 55) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Pittsburgh (8-5) continues to go through a roller-coaster season after lighting up Cincinnati for 25 fourth quarter points in a 42-21 victory as three-point road underdogs. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Bengals’ secondary for 350 yards and three touchdowns, while improving to 3-2 inside the AFC North and sitting one-half game out of the first place in the division heading into Sunday.
-- The Falcons (5-8) cashed as 13 ½-point away ‘dogs in a 43-37 loss at Green Bay, as no team wants to take control of the dreadful NFC South race. Julio Jones hauled in a career-high 259 yards and a touchdown in the defeat, but the standout receiver left the game with a hip injury and is questionable on Sunday.

Previous meeting: The Steelers knocked off the Falcons, 15-9 to kick off the 2010 season as Rashard Mendenhall rushed for the game-winning touchdown from 50 yards out in overtime. Pittsburgh played without Roethlisberger, who was serving a four-game suspension. These teams went to overtime in the previous matchup at the Georgia Dome in 2006, when the Falcons came out with a 41-38 victory as short ‘dogs.

What to watch for: Both these teams are riding three-game ‘over’ streaks, while Pittsburgh has gone ‘over’ the total in six of the past seven games. The Steelers own a 1-4 ATS record as a favorite in early kickoffs, while the Falcons have covered their last five home games as an underdog since last November (which includes a loss at London earlier this season).

Texans at Colts (-6 ½, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Houston (7-6) still has an outside shot at qualifying for the AFC playoffs after winning back-to-back games the past two weeks. The Texans took care of the Jaguars, 27-13 as 6 ½-point road favorites, as Houston rushed for 169 yards and three touchdowns. Bill O’Brien’s team moved to 3-1 inside the AFC South, as the Texans can move within one game of the Colts with a victory on Sunday.
-- Indianapolis (9-4) rallied past Cleveland, 25-24, as Andrew Luck connected with T.Y. Hilton for the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. The Colts failed to cash as three-point favorites, as their defense limited the Browns to 248 yards of offense, as Indianapolis is now 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite since the start of 2012.

Previous meeting: Indianapolis jumped out to a 24-0 lead after one quarter in Week 6 at Houston, as the Colts held off a late Texans’ comeback in a 33-28 win as 2 ½-point road chalk. The Colts scored just nine points in the final three quarters, as Luck threw for 370 yards and three touchdowns.

What to watch for: Houston is 0-12 lifetime at Indianapolis, while the Colts are 4-1 against the Texans since Luck arrived in 2012. The Texans have hit the ‘under’ in three of the last four games, while Houston is winless in three contests this season off a road win.

Bengals at Browns (-1, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- The AFC North race continues to stay tight down the stretch after the Bengals (8-4-1) were tripped up at home by the Steelers, 42-21. Cincinnati had won three straight road games before the loss to Pittsburgh, while allowing more points to the Steelers than in the previous three games combined (36).
-- The Browns’ (7-6) playoff hopes are dwindling by the week following their second consecutive loss, 25-23 to the Colts. Cleveland managed a cover as three-point underdogs to improve to 5-1-1 ATS when receiving points this season, but the Browns suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time in 2014.

Previous meeting: Cleveland shocked Cincinnati as 6 ½-point road underdogs in Week 10 with a 24-3 blowout at Paul Brown Stadium. The Browns intercepted Andy Dalton three times in the victory, as the road team won for just the second time in the past 10 matchups.

What to watch for: Cincinnati’s four-game ‘under’ streak came to a close in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, as all four defeats for the Bengals this season have come by 21 points or more. Johnny Manziel will make his first NFL start on Sunday, as the Heisman Trophy winner threw for just 63 yards and ran for a touchdown in his only extended play in a loss at Buffalo two weeks ago.

Dolphins at Patriots (-7 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Miami (7-6) was dealt a serious blow to its playoff dream after squandering a 10-0 advantage in a 28-13 home loss to Baltimore. The Dolphins were limited to 63 yards on the ground, while suffering their fourth loss in the past two months to a team likely headed to the postseason (Packers, Lions, Broncos, and Ravens).
-- The Patriots (10-3) rebounded from a Week 13 loss at Green Bay by erasing a 14-3 deficit in a 23-14 triumph at San Diego. New England cashed as four-point favorites, capped off by a Tom Brady 69-yard touchdown strike to Julian Edelman, while the Pats’ defense limited the Chargers to 216 yards of offense.

Previous meeting: The Patriots jumped out to a 20-10 lead on opening day at Sun Life Stadium, but the Dolphins scored 23 unanswered points to shock New England, 33-20 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Miami ran all over the New England defense for 191 yards, while Ryan Tannehill threw a pair of touchdown passes. The Dolphins have lost six of the past seven visits to Gillette Stadium, with the lone victory coming in 2007 when Brady was out with an ACL injury.

What to watch for: New England owns a perfect 6-0 record at home, while covering four times. The Pats have won 15 straight games at Gillette Stadium, while riding a 16-game regular season home winning streak against division foes. The Dolphins have won four straight games off a loss, as Miami has hit the ‘under’ in seven of the past eight contests.

Broncos (-4 ½, 51) at Chargers – 4:05 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- Denver (10-3) remains neck-and-neck with New England for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, as the Broncos won their third straight game by holding off the Bills, 24-17. The Broncos built a 24-3 lead, but Buffalo rallied for a pair of late touchdowns to deny Denver a cover as nine-point favorites. In spite of the win, Peyton Manning was held without a touchdown pass for the first time in 52 games.
-- San Diego’s (8-5) three-game winning streak was snapped in a 23-14 home setback to New England. The Chargers failed to score a point in the second half, as San Diego fell to 1-7 ATS in the past eight weeks after not covering as four-point home underdogs.

Previous meeting: The Broncos chased out the Chargers, 35-21 in Week 8 as 9 ½-point home favorites. Manning tossed three touchdowns (all to Emmanuel Sanders) to pass Brett Favre on the all-time touchdown list, while the Broncos improved to 5-1 against San Diego since the start of 2012 season.

What to watch for: Denver is just 2-2 ATS this season as a road favorite, but has picked up a pair of blowouts on the highway inside divisional play at Kansas City and Oakland. Since 2010, the Chargers are dynamic off a December loss, going 6-0 in this situation, while posting a 16-7 record in December in this span.

49ers at Seahawks (-9 ½, 38) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 14 Recap:
-- The 49ers (7-6) are falling apart at the seams after suffering consecutive losses. San Francisco’s offense has disappeared by scoring 16 points during this mini-skid, while hitting rock-bottom in a 24-13 loss to Bay Area rival Oakland as eight-point favorites. Colin Kapernick was intercepted twice, bringing his pick total to five in the past three weeks. -- The Seahawks (9-4) traveled to the East Coast for the third time this season and picked up its third victory by dismantling the Eagles, 24-14 as one-point favorites. Seattle’s defense allowed just 82 yards passing, while running all over the Eagles for 188 yards to pick up its sixth win in the past seven games.

Previous meeting: These two rivals just hooked up on Thanksgiving in Santa Clara, as Seattle humbled San Francisco, 19-3 as one-point road underdogs. The Seahawks intercepted Kaepernick two times, while the Niners racked up just 164 yards of offense to suffer their fourth loss in the past five matchups with Seattle.

What to watch for: With San Francisco’s recent offensive struggles, the Niners have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight games. Seattle is in the midst of a three-game ‘under’ stretch, while allowing just 20 points during this span. Since losing to the 49ers at the end of the 2011 season, the Seahawks have won 22 of the past 24 games at CenturyLink Field, while posting a 5-7 ATS record as a home favorite of eight points or more in this span.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Raiders (2-11) @ Chiefs (7-6)—Since 2007, Chiefs are 1-10 as a divisional home favorite. KC lost last three games overall, scoring 16.7 ppg; they’re 14-56 (25%) on 3rd down over last five games. Raiders are 3-2-1 as road underdogs, with one loss by more than 10 points. Chiefs are 3-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 27-27-14-4 points, with losses to Titans/Broncos. Oakland won two of last three games, losing 52-0 in between two wins, first of which was 24-20 (+7) home win over Chiefs three weeks ago, when Raiders ran for 179 yards, converted 8-16 on 3rd down on Thursday night home game that was similar scenario to this week’s Card-Ram game. Raiders won six of last nine against Chiefs, winning six of last seven visits here; they’re Seven of last nine Chief games stayed under the total.

Jaguars (2-11) @ Ravens (8-5)—Since ’03, Baltimore is 29-14-1 as non-divisional home favorite, 3-1 this year. Ravens won three of last four games, running for 168.5 ypg in wins by 14-7-15 points, with 34-33 loss to Chargers when they lost in last minute. Jax lost five of last six games, scoring two defensive TDs in only win (trailed 21-3 at half); they’re 1-4-1 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 17-31-19-2-10-20 points, with last two losses their only two games on carpet this year (0-1-1 vs spread, 4-7-1 last 12). Home side won last five series games, with Baltimore winning seven of last nine after losing eight in row to Jags. Jax averaged under 4.5 ypa in each of last three games. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-6 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 6-6. Six of last nine Jaguar games stayed under the total.

Steelers (8-5) @ Falcons (5-8)—AFC North teams (11-2-1) have treated NFC South like a piñata this year, but Steelers have both losses and at home/ Pitt would be in playoffs if they started now after gaining 543 yards in 42-21 win at Cincy last week; Steelers are 4-2 on road, 1-2 on carpet- they’re 29-54 on third down in last four games. Short week for Falcons after they fought back from 31-7 halftime deficit to lose/cover 43-37 at Lambeau Monday night; health of star WR Jones (hip) obviously a big Atlanta concern. Falcons covered five of last six games, but are 1-8 SU in non-divisional games. Last five series games were decided by 4 or less points in OT, with last three going OT; Steelers won six of eight visits here, are 12-2-1 overall in last 15 series games. Six of last seven Steeler games, last three Atlanta games went over total.

Texans (7-6) @ Colts (9-4)—Indy can clinch division here; wary of teams off sloppy (3+ turnovers) wins, which is what Colts did in Cleveland last week, turning ball over four times but scoring in last 2:00 of each half, including game-winning TD with 0:32 left. Colts turned ball over 10 times (-5) in last three games, two of which were at home; they’re 21-4 in this series, 12-0 here, with three of last four home wins vs Texans by 12+ points. Houston is 3-1 since its bye; they’ve won last three road games, are 2-1 as road dogs (were favored in 4 of first 7 on road), 0-2 on carpet, losing by 13 at Giants, 3 in OT at Dallas. Indy (-2.5) won first meeting 33-28 in Houston, running 30 more plays (82-52) than Texans. Favorites are 7-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year, 3-0 at home. Three of last four Houston games stayed under total.

Bengals (8-4-1) @ Browns (7-6)—Manziel gets first NFL start here for Browns squad that lost three of last four games, scoring five TDs on last 50 drives; they lost at home last week, even with defense scoring two TDs. Cleveland won three of last four series games, winning 24-3 (+6) at Cincy in Week 10 Thursday game; Browns ran for 170 yards, had 368-165 edge in yardage over Jekyll/Hyde Bengal squad that gave up 543 yards in home loss to Steelers last week, after winning previous three games, all on road, giving up 71.3 rushing ypg. Last time Browns swept Cincinnati was 2002; they’re 4-3 at home, but lost last two, to Texans/Colts. Underdogs covered six of eight AFC North games this year. Eight of last nine Cleveland games, four of last five Bengal games stayed under the total.

Dolphins (7-6) @ Patriots (10-3)—Miami offense is fading, scoring 16-13 points in last two games, running for just 63 yards vs Ngata-less Ravens last week. Dolphins are 3-2-1 as underdogs this year, 2-2 on road; they’re 2-4 as divisional road dogs under Philbin. NE is home after splitting pair of grass games at GB/SD, practicing all week in SoCal last week; Patriots covered four of last five home games, scoring 42.7 ppg in last three home tilts. Pats lost 33-20 (-4) to Miami in season opener, second straight loss to Dolphins after seven wins; Fish lost last five visits here, with four of five by 10+ points. Since 2005, NE is just 9-12 vs spread as divisional home favorites, 0-1 this year. Home teams are 5-3 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Seven of last eight Dolphin games, last three New England games stayed under the total.

Buccaneers (2-11) @ Panthers (4-8-1)—Cam Newton was involved in a car wreck Tuesday afternoon; as I type this, not sure if he is injured or not. Carolina is 4-8-1 but only half-game out of first in hideous NFC South, where road teams are 7-2 vs spread in divisional games. Carolina won season opener 20-14 (+2.5) behind backup QB Anderson; Panthers were +3 in turnovers as they beat Bucs for third straight time, by 18-21-6 points. Tampa lost four of last six games in Charlotte; they’ve lost seven of last eight games overall, but are 4-2 as road underdogs with a win at Pittsburgh. Carolina had 271 rushing yards in easy win in Superdome last week; they’ve lost last three home games, scoring 12 ppg. Six of last seven Bucs’ games stayed under total; three of last four Panther games went over. This series has resulted in season sweeps last five years.

Redskins (3-10) @ Giants (4-9)—Washington QB McCoy (neck) is a ??; RGIII is back in lineup if he can’t go, as dysfunctional Redskins look to avenge 45-14 (-3) thrashing they took at home from Giants in Week 4, when Cousins-led Skins turned ball over six times (-5). Big Blue won 10 of last 13 series games but lost seven of last eight games overall; they’ve led last three games by 11+ points at half, but lost two of them. Washington lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 10 of last 40 on third down and look generally disinterested, allowing fake PAT and a punt return TD last week vs Rams. Giants are favored for only third time (1-1) this season; they’re 2-4 SU at home, beating Texans by 13, Falcons by 10. NFC East home favorites are 1-4 in divisional games. Five of last seven Redskin games stayed under; five of last seven Giant games went over.

Packers (10-3) @ Bills (7-6)—Short week for Packer defense that looked exhausted in second half Monday night, giving up 30 second half points after leading 31-7 at half. Green Bay won its last five games (3-2 vs spread) but is just 3-3 SU on road, (1-1-1 as road favorite) with two of three wins by FG (won 38-17 at Bears)- they lost three of four games on carpet this season. Bills covered last three games, are 4-3 SU at home, 0-2 as home dog- they allowed one TD on 23 drives in winning last two home games (Jets/Browns). Home side won last six series games and nine of 11, with Packers losing last five visits here, all by 7+ points. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 10-6, 1-0 on road; AFC East underdogs are 10-8, 3-2 at home. Eight of last ten Green Bay games went over; last five Buffalo games stayed under.

Vikings (6-7) @ Lions (9-4)—Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Detroit won six of last eight games, winning last two by 34-17 scores (8 TDs, 4 FGA on 19 drives); they beat Minnesota 17-3 (-1.5) in Week 6, picking off three passes in game where teams combined to go 4-27 on 3rd down (Lions were 1-13). Detroit is 6-1 at home, 5-2 as home favorite, with four of six home wins by 12+ points. Minnesota is playing rookie QB, had Peterson for only one game, so 6-7 is pretty good for them; they’ve won four of last six games, covered six of last seven- they’re 3-3 as road underdogs. Vikings are 19-6 in last 25 series games, but lost three of last four visits here; they’re 2-4 on road, losing four of last five on foreign soil. Last two Lion games went over total, after previous ten had stayed under.

Jets (2-11) @ Titans (2-11)—Both teams won season opener and very little since; have sense that Titans are subtly tanking season to get #1 pick in draft- they trailed last two games 24-0/23-0 at half. Jets are trying because Ryan knows he’s getting fired and he is auditioning for his next job. Home side won last three series games; Jets lost 14-10/38-13 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional road teams are 9-7 vs spread; AFC South home teams are 8-11. Mettenberger (shoulder) is done for year, so Locker, Whitehurst are their QBs. Tennessee’s last win was October 12; five of their last six losses are by 14+ points. Jets lost last three games, by 35-3-6- they gave up 87-yard TD pass in OT last week. Four of last five Jet games stayed under; three of last four Tennessee games went over. Bad teams don’t have a home field advantage.

Broncos (10-3) @ Chargers (8-5)—San Diego is just 2-8 vs spread in its last ten divisional home games; they had 3-game win streak snapped by Patriots last week, are 5-2 SU at home, but failed to cover last four at Qualcomm. Denver (-9) beat Bolts 35-21 in Week 8 Thursday night game, picking Rivers off twice (+2) and converting 8-13 on third down; Broncos won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here by 3-11-8 points- they’re 9-2 vs spread in divisional road games in Manning era. Broncos ran ball for 201-214-133 yards in last three games since loss in St Louis; they’re 9-0 on grass this season, 1-3 on carpet. San Diego is just 31 of last 82 on 3rd down (22 of last 71 if you take out Raven win); they’ve lost field position in seven of last eight games, losing by 15-18 yards last two weeks—hard to win that way. Three of last four Denver games stayed under total.

49ers (7-6) @ Seahawks (9-4)—Niners’ last stand of the Harbaugh era; they got spanked 19-3 (-1.5) by Seattle at home two weeks ago, gaining only 164 yards with three turnovers (-3). SF is 3-4 in last seven games, losing last two weeks while scoring one TD on 18 drives (seven 3/outs); they’re -7 in turnovers last three games, with only one takeaway. Seattle won six of last seven games, allowing two TDs on 30 drives in last three games, with 13 3/outs; they’re 4-2 as home favorites this year, 7-2 overall under Carroll. 49ers split pair of games as road underdogs this year, losing at Denver, winning in New Orleans. Seahawks won four of last five series games; 49ers lost last three visits here, by 29-26-6 points. Five of last seven series totals were 36 or less. Last four 49er games, last three Seattle games stayed under the total.

Cowboys (9-4) @ Eagles (9-4)—In their last four wins, Philly is 32-65 on third down; in their last two losses, they’re 7-26, so its up to Sanchez to move chains when necessary and hand off to McCoy/Sproles rest of time. Eagles (+3.5) crushed Dallas 33-10 on Thanksgiving, running for 256 yards and outgaining Pokes by 197 yards. Iggles’ last six games were all decided by 10+ points; they’re 4-3 as home favorites, winning all seven SU. Dallas had 10 days off after Chicago game last week; they’re 3-1 as underdogs this year, won three of last four games SU. Home side lost last three games in series where Eagles won last two meetings after losing seven of previous ten; Dallas won four of last five visits here, winning 38-23/17-3 last two years. Three of last four Dallas games, four of last six Philly games went over the total.

Saints (5-8) @ Bears (5-8)—Neither team here inspires any confidence. Saints covered once in last eight games as a road favorite; they lost SU last four times they were favored, but they won last two road games, scoring 63 points. Road team won their last six games, after losing first seven. Dome team as road favorite on a December night in Chicago is a brutal spot, but Bears lost five of last seven games, allowing 75 points last two weeks and best WR Marshall (back) is done for year. Chicago failed to cover last five tries as a home underdog; they covered once in last seven tries as an underdog overall. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 4-10 vs spread, 0-3 on road. NFC North underdogs are 6-10, 1-2 at home. Four of last six Chicago games, four of last five Saint games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 14

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Game of the Day: 49ers at Seahawks
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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 38)

The Seattle Seahawks are showing the form that carried them to a Super Bowl title last season and that spells bad news for the San Francisco 49ers, who are teetering on the edge of playoff elimination. The Seahawks go for their fourth straight victory when they host the 49ers on Sunday in the second meeting between the NFC West rivals in 18 days. Seattle has permitted 20 points over its past three, including a 19-3 win at San Francisco.

The 49ers had won three in a row before they were limited to 164 yards by the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night and followed that up by laying an egg in last week's 24-13 loss at lowly Oakland, dropping two games behind Seattle and two other clubs for the final two playoff slots in the NFC. A loss could KO the playoff hopes of San Francisco, which is expected to part ways with coach Jim Harbaugh after the season. “Sometimes they don’t see the magic that guys have," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said of the reported rift between Harbaugh and team management. "I think he’s fantastic football coach. He’s proven that. There’s no question about that."

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at Seattle -9.5 at most books, the total has shifted to -10. The total opened at a low 38.5, but has still dropped to 38.

INJURY REPORT: 49ers - G Mike Iupati (Ques-Elbow), C Marcus Martin (Ques-Knee), WR Stevie Johnson (Out-Knee) Seahawks - C Max Unger (Ques-Ankle),

WEATHER FORECAST: Skies are expected to be clear with temperatures between 42°F and 47°F. Winds are expected to be blowing throughout the game between 9 mph and 11 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS, 4-9 O/U): San Francisco's offense has been among the most unproductive in the league, ranking 26th with an average of 18.8 points, and has taken a major step back over the past two months. The 49ers have been held to 17 points or fewer in six of their last seven games and are averaging 12.3 over their last four. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick continues to regress, completing under 56 percent of his passes in four of the past five games while throwing five interceptions and only two touchdowns over his last three. Running back Frank Gore hasn't cracked 100 yards since Week 5, putting more of an onus on a defense that ranks third in the league.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Seattle was sitting at 3-3 following back-to-back losses to Dallas and St. Louis in mid-October but has rebounded to win six of seven and turned in three consecutive dominant defensive efforts. The Seahawks limited NFC West leader Arizona and San Francisco to a field goal apiece before holding Philadelphia's potent offense to a season-low 139 yards in last week's 24-14 road victory. While the defense has been superb, quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for four touchdowns and run for another while not throwing an interception during the winning streak. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 86 yards last week to hit 1,000 for the fourth straight season.

TRENDS:

*49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West.
*Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last 8 vs. NFC West.
*Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Seattle.
*49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57.2 percent of users are backing the 49ers +10 with 58.4 percent taking the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 14

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles
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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 55)

The Dallas Cowboys are the league's only undefeated team on the road but they will have to avenge a lopsided defeat against a bitter rival to keep that perfect mark intact. Dallas will pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night in a showdown for first place in the NFC East. The Eagles crushed the Cowboys 33-10 in Dallas on Thanksgiving night and a victory Sunday night will essentially give them a two-game lead with two to play.

“Our attention has to go to Dallas and on winning the NFC East,” Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly said. “We’re not concerned with anything else besides that. Control what you can control. And that’s what we can control right now.” Dallas has been off for nine days since winning at Chicago 41-28 on Dec. 4 and regained a share of first place in the division when Seattle knocked off the Eagles 24-14 last week. The teams have split the last 10 meetings, but the Cowboys have won their last two in Philadelphia.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line of Dallas -3.5 and total of 55 has not shifted all week.

INJURY REPORT: Cowboys - DE Demarcus Lawrence (Prob-Chest), S Jeff Heath (Prob-Thumb) Eagles - QB Nick Foles (Ques-Collarbone)

WEATHER FORECAST: Expect party cloudy conditions with temperatures in the high 37-40°F range. Winds are expected to gust between 6-8 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U): DeMarco Murray is running away with the league's rushing title with 1,606 yards and has eclipsed 100 in 11 of 13 games this season, but he was held to a season-low 73 yards on 20 carries by Philadelphia. Quarterback Tony Romo had his worst game in last month's meeting, getting intercepted twice and sacked four times while failing to throw a touchdown pass for the only time this season. Romo bounced back by tossing three touchdowns - two to Cole Beasley - against the Bears and will be looking for Dez Bryant, who last week went over 1,000 yards for the third straight season. Dallas has only 19 sacks and is permitted 251.9 yards through the air.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 8-5 O/U): Philadelphia's vaunted offense was brought to a halt by reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle, which limited the Eagles to 139 total yards while holding the ball for nearly 42 minutes. Mark Sanchez had his worst game since replacing an injured Nick Foles, throwing for only 96 yards, while LeSean McCoy managed 50 yards on 17 carries after shredding Dallas for 159 yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving. Wideout Jeremy Maclin had eight catches for 108 yards in the previous meeting with the Cowboys while rookie Jordan Matthews has five TD receptions in his last six games and has emerged as a favorite target of Sanchez.

TRENDS:

*Eagles are 5-14-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 road games.
*Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
*Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.

CONSENSUS: 54.31 percent of users are on the Cowboys +3.5, with 63.6 percent backing the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 14


Cowboys league's best road team

The Dallas Cowboys are the lone undefeated team on the road this season, going an impressive 6-0 away from AT&T Stadium. All other teams in the NFL have at least two road losses this season.

In those six games the Cowboys have been a great bet on the road, going 5-1 against the spread.

They will need that success to continue if they hope to be NFC East champs when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night. The Eagles are currently 3.5-point home favorites and are 5-2 ATS at home this season.


Home team is red-hot ATS in Patriots-Dolphins matchup

The home team in the Patriots-Dolphins matchup has been red-hot against the spread going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Patriots are currently 7.5-point home favorites and with a win with can clinch the AFC East. New England is 1-2 ATS when favored by 7.5-points or more this season.


Houston WR Andre Johnson expected to sit

The Houston Texans are expected to be without wideout Andre Johnson for their early Sunday afternoon matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, according to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

Johnson is dealing with a concussion he suffered last week against Jacksonville.

The Texans are currently 7-point underdogs against the division rival Colts with a total sitting at 49.


Raiders place S Asante on IR

The Oakland Raiders placed safety Larry Asante on injured reserve Saturday and signed safety Ras-I Dowling and linebacker Bojay Filimoeatu from the practice squad to the active roster.

Asante had 23 tackles (18 solo) and one forced fumble in six games this year.

Dowling was signed to the Raiders' practice squad on Sept. 1. He was originally a second-round draft pick of the New England Patriots in 2011. He spent two seasons with the Patriots before joining the New York Jets in 2013. In nine NFL games, he has 10 tackles (seven solo) and one pass breakup.

Filimoeatu signed with the Raiders as an undrafted free agent in May out of Utah. In five games, he has 10 tackles (two solo).


Bears place Sharpton on IR, promote Fales

The Chicago Bears placed linebacker Darryl Sharpton on injured reserve Saturday and promoted quarterback David Fales from the practice squad to the 53-man roster.

Sharpton, who has a hamstring injury, has played 47 NFL games (21 starts) with the Houston Texans (2010-13) and Bears (2014). He has 171 tackles (six for loss) one sack, one interception, five pass breakups, one forced fumble and a fumble recovery. He also has 16 special teams tackles.

This season, Sharpton had 27 tackles, three quarterback pressures and two pass breakups in five games (two starts).

Fales has been on the Bears' practice squad after the team drafted him in the sixth round this year. In two seasons at San Jose State, Fales made all 25 starts, completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 8,382 yards, 66 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest Week 15 NFL line moves

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions - Open: -7.5, Move: -8

The perennially competitive NFC North has seen the Chicago Bears grabbing the headlines for all the wrong reasons this year, while the Lions are one game behind the Packers at the top of the division heading into Sunday. Even without star running back Adrian Peterson for the majority of the campaign, the Vikings have been solid at the betting window (8-5 ATS) while showing signs of promise for the future with rookie Teddy Bridgewater under center.

"The spread reached as high as -8 and that’s when the wiseguys grabbed Minnesota," said Lester. "The under has seen even more significant movement, almost down a field goal from our open of 44. You know what you’re going to get with a much-improved Detroit D, and the first time these two met they didn't eclipse 20 points."


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -9.5, Move: -10, Move: -9.5

After enduring a mid-season slump, the Seahawks have looked more like last year's Super Bowl champs as the season draws to a close, winning and covering three games in a row ahead of the contest. Rumors of the potential departure of head coach John Harbaugh has dominated the 49ers season, as the Niners have looked completely out of sorts on the field on their way to a 7-6 straight-up record. San Fran's struggles have continued against the spread, failing to cover in three consecutive games ahead of Sunday.

"The betting public is well aware of San Francisco’s internal and external problems," stated Lester. "They never really backed off the Seahawks, even when they were struggling earlier in the year. We’ve bounced around between -9.5 and -10 for a few days and it will probably reach double digits again."


Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns - Open: +1, Move: -1.5

In case you didn't hear, it's Johnny Football time in Cleveland. Despite Brian Hoyer's struggles on the field this season, the Browns are the league's fourth-best bet (7-4-2 ATS) after 14 weeks. Cincinnati is hanging onto the top spot in the crowded AFC North which makes Sunday's all-Ohio clash a massive one for both sides.

"This one was already moving before the announcement of Manziel starting, but that’s when the squares really jumped on Cleveland," Lester tells Covers. "The sharps may have initially been taking a small position because we’ve seen some buyback when it got to -1.5. It’s kind of a muddied picture right now. I think the Bengals get the win."


Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills - Open: +5, Move: +4

The Packers have looked like a well oiled machine all year long and find themselves as the odds-on favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy in February. The scrappy Bills have refused to throw in the towel and remain in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race, covering the spread in each of their past three matchups. Green Bay has been unbeatable on the frozen tundra (7-0 straight-up) but is just 3-3 SU away from Wisconsin.

"You know the public is on Green Bay (nearly 80 percent of our action), so this movement is all smart money," Lester said. "They know this is a must-win game for Buffalo, and they expect the Packers to slow down at some point. That said, I doubt this creeps any lower than +4."


Washington Redskins at New York Giants - Open: -6.5, Move: -7, Move: -6.5

Both the Redskins and the Giants enter Week 15 with a significantly larger amount of questions than answers. Each squad has long been out of playoff contention, and unsurprisingly, have been far from a safe bet. The G-Men are tied with Tampa Bay and New Orleans for the third worst ATS mark in the league (5-8 ATS) while the 'Skins are sole owners of the second worst spread play at 4-9.

"We’re back to our opener of -6.5 after brief moves of a half point in either direction," said Lester. "I don’t think the McCoy-RG3 situation has really had any bearing on this line. I could see this getting back to a touchdown by kickoff."

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Vikings, +8-- Trying to avenge 17-3 loss in first meeting.

5) 49ers, +10-- Trying to right the ship and get back in contention.

4) Colts, -6.5-- Survived four turnovers in narrow win last week.

3) Patriots, -7.5-- Back home after spending last week in California.

2) Cowboys, +3-- Better be prepared to stop the run this time.

1) Bills, +4.5-- Green Bay hasn't been as good on the road.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 46-38

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

[baseballdave]

thanks for all you do buddy !!