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Betting Recap - Week 16

December 22, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL WEEK 16 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 5-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 8-7
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-9-1

NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 155-78-1
Against the Spread 112-118-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 132-101-1
Against the Spread 115-115-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-124-4

Biggest Favorite to Cash

Green Bay (-11) wasn’t spectacular but it got the job done in its 20-3 road win against Tampa Bay.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Washington (+7.5) upset Philadelphia 27-24 on Saturday at home. The Redskins were listed as high plus-260 (Bet $100 to win $260) on the money-line.

Home/Away

Through 15 games, the home team went 8-7 both straight up and against the spread.

Win Total Tickets

Three teams jumped ‘over’ the win total expectations set by oddsmakers in Week 16.

Green Bay (11-4) – Over 10
Miami (8-7) Over 7.5
San Diego (9-6) – Over 8

RESULTS

Road Trap

The last two weeks, NFL road favorites went 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS.

On Sunday, the home underdogs rebounded with a 4-2 record versus the number.

Two of the ‘dogs, Texans and Raiders, captured outright wins.

Green Bay – Win/Cover
New England – Win/No-Cover
Baltimore - Loss
Detroit – Win/No-Cover
Buffalo – Loss
Seattle - Win/Cover
Denver – Pending at Cincinnati on MNF

Point-Spreads Matter

New England (-9.5) trailed the N.Y. Jets 10-7 at halftime and rallied for a 17-16 road victory. This outcome was déjà vu for some bettors as the Patriots defeated the Jets 27-25 but failed to cover the number.

Detroit (-10) stopped Chicago 20-14 and actually had a shot to at least push but they settled for a field goal late when leading 17-14. Some bettors may’ve scored a middle on this game as the Lions opened as 4 ½-point favorites. The line jumped up after the Bears announced they were starting Jimmy Clausen at quarterback instead of Jay Cutler.

Carolina (-6) was another team that could’ve been middle. Earlier in the week, the Panthers were installed as one-point home ‘dogs. The books weren’t aware QB Cam Newton would play and once he did, Carolina was bumped up. The Panthers won 17-13 and failed to cover.

Miami (-4.5) captured a wild 37-35 shootout victory over Minnesota with a safety late in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins actually led this game 28-20 but allowed the Vikings to tie the game with key penalties

NFC South Showdown

Atlanta’s 30-14 victory over New Orleans 30-14 as six-point underdogs sets up a preliminary playoff game against Carolina (6-9-1) next Sunday from the Georgia Dome. The winner will claim the NFC South and be the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs.

Not so Super

Prior to this season, the Saints were 16-4 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games played at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This season, New Orleans started 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) before ending the season with five consecutive losses.

Playoff Notes

Below is a quick look at the possible seeds for the 2014-15 playoffs.

AFC

1) New England/Denver
2) New England/Denver
3) Indianapolis/AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
4) Indianapolis/AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
5) AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
6) San Diego, Baltimore, Houston or Kansas City

NFC

1) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
2) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) NFC South (Atlanta-Carolina)
5) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
6) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)


Totals

Sunday’s early action saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 in the first-half and the results stayed true for the game outcomes too (7-1).

Overall, the 'under' owns a 9-5-1 mark in Week 16.

The lone occurred in the Miami-Minnesota matchup as the Dolphins nipped the Vikings 37-35. The two teams combined for 41 of their 72 points in the final quarter.

Detroit saw the ‘under’ improve to 7-0 in its road games this season. Next Sunday, the Lions visit the Packers.

The Steelers finally saw an ‘under’ ticket cash at Heinz Field. The ‘over’ was 6-0 in the first six regular season games played at this venue. Next Sunday, Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati.

Tampa Bay saw another ‘under’ ticket connect (6-1) at home. The Buccaneers were held to three points in their loss to the Packers and haven’t scored more than 17 at home this season.

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Bengals look for home win

December 20, 2014


DENVER BRONCOS (11-3) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-4-1)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Denver -3, Total: 47.5

The Broncos go for their fifth straight victory when they visit the surging Bengals on Monday night.

Last Sunday, Denver went into San Diego and won 22-10 for its fourth straight SU victory. Meanwhile, Cincinnati also scored a road win by blowing out Cleveland 30-0 to pick up its fourth SU victory in the past five games. The last meeting between these two teams was on Nov. 4, 2012, when the Broncos won 31-23 as 5-point favorites on the road. They have won-and-covered in three of their past four trips to Cincy dating back to 2003.

This matchup will feature a Bengals offense that has the sixth-ranked rushing attack in football going against a Denver team that is second in the league in rushing defense. The Broncos are 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the past three seasons, and are also 10-2 ATS in December games in this same timeframe. However, Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS off a division game over the past two years and 24-10 ATS after leading in its previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992.

RB Ronnie Hillman (ankle), RB Juwan Thompson (hip), TE Jacob Tamme (ribs), CB Kayvon Webster (shoulder) and OT Ryan Clady (leg) are among several Broncos questionable for this game, while LB Danny Trevathan (knee) and RB Montee Ball (groin) were both recently placed on season-ending IR.

For the Bengals, LB Vontaze Burfict (knee) landed on IR last week, and four others are listed as questionable for Monday night -- TE Jermaine Gresham (toe), WR James Wright (knee), CB Terence Newman (ankle) and DE Margus Hunt (ankle).

The Broncos have won four straight games and they have done so behind the excellent running of RB C.J. Anderson (679 rush yards, 4 TD). Anderson has been a workhorse for the Broncos recently, carrying the football at least 21 times in each of the past four games. He has four rushing touchdowns in that span and another score through the air.

If this team is going to win though, it will need QB Peyton Manning (4,143 pass yards, 37 TD, 11 INT) to snap out of his recent funk. Manning has thrown for just one touchdown with two picks over the past two games, and he’s failed to reach 200 yards in two of the past three games as well. Manning's main receiver is WR Demaryius Thomas (96 rec, 1,389 yards, 11 TD), who had six catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Chargers last week. He now has five touchdowns over the past four games, and is going to be extremely difficult for the Bengals to stop on Monday.

With the offense struggling, the Denver defense has picked up the slack in allowing 17 or less points in each of the past three weeks. If this unit continues to hold opponents below 100 rushing yards like it has done in 10 of the past 11 games, it will be really tough for teams to beat the Broncos in the postseason.

Cincinnati is on a roll recently with wins in four of its past five games, and one of the main reasons for that has been RB Jeremy Hill (877 rush yards, 8 TD). Last week against the Browns, Hill rushed for 148 of his team's season-high 244 rushing yards with two touchdowns. Cincinnati is moving away from RB Giovani Bernard (636 rush yards, 5 TD) and giving Hill a boatload of the carries in this offense. He could struggle to find holes against this elite Broncos rushing defense, though.

QB Andy Dalton (3,008 pass yards, 15 TD, 14 INT) is going to need to play a good game for this team to have any chance of beating the Broncos. Dalton threw for just 117 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against the Browns, but he will not be able to do the same against Denver and still pick up a victory. He must limit his turnovers and make plays when his team needs him most.

WR A.J. Green (61 rec, 959 yards, 6 TD) is about as good of a target as a quarterback could ask for. Green had just five catches for 49 yards against Cleveland, but he caught 11 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown the week before against Pittsburgh. Dalton would be wise to look Green's way often in this game.

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MNF - Broncos at Bengals

December 22, 2014

Four of the six playoff spots in the AFC have been clinched with one game remaining in Week 16. The Bengals can qualify for their fourth straight postseason berth with a win tonight over the Broncos, while facing the rival Steelers next week for a shot at the AFC North title. However, Denver still has plenty to play for as the Broncos want to wrap up the top seed in the AFC.

Cincinnati (9-4-1) received a huge break on Sunday with Baltimore’s embarrassing loss at Houston to drop the Ravens down to 9-6. Baltimore can still get in the playoffs with a win and a San Diego loss, but the logjam atop the AFC North loosened up with the Ravens stumbling in Texas. The Steelers continued to roll along with their victory over the Chiefs, as the Black and Gold needs a win next week over Cincinnati to clinch the AFC North, regardless of what happens tonight.

The Bengals bounced back from a rough fourth quarter performance against the Steelers two weeks ago when they allowed 25 points in the final 15 minutes, as Cincinnati shut out Cleveland last week. Marvin Lewis’ defense cranked it up as 2 ½-point road underdogs to limit Johnny Manziel to 80 yards passing and intercept the Heisman Trophy winner twice in a 30-0 rout. Andy Dalton didn’t put up great numbers by throwing for 117 yards and an interception, but rookie running back Jeremy Hill rushed for 148 yards and a pair of scores to avenge a Week 10 home loss to the Browns.

Denver (11-3) won its fourth straight game to stay neck-and-neck with New England for the top seed in the AFC playoff race with a 22-10 triumph at San Diego as four-point favorites. The Broncos kicked five field goals (three from 26 yards or closer) and reached the end zone just one time, but Denver’s defense intercepted Philip Rivers twice, while improving to 4-3 on the road this season. Peyton Manning threw for 233 yards on only 14 completions, but the Broncos have covered just three of their past seven games.

This season, if the Broncos win on the road, they normally cover. In all four victories away from Sports Authority Field, John Fox’s team is a perfect 4-0 ATS. However, Denver is just 1-2 ATS as a single-digit road favorite, while posting an 0-3 ATS record in its three losses to St. Louis, New England, and Seattle, so if you like Cincinnati tonight, take them on the money-line, which will pay back +160 ($160 on a $100 bet).

The Bengals posted a perfect 8-0 record at Paul Brown Stadium last season before bowing out to the Chargers in an ugly Wild Card loss. Cincinnati hasn’t put together the same type of home magic this season with a 4-2-1 record. The Bengals began the home campaign with blowout wins over the Falcons and Titans, but last won a home contest back in Week 9 against a dreadful Jacksonville squad. Out of Cincinnati’s nine victories this season, only three are against teams currently sitting above .500, beating Baltimore twice and knocking off Houston.

The last time these teams met up came back in 2012, when the Broncos knocked off the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium, 31-23 as five-point favorites. Denver led 10-3 at halftime, but the scoring opened up in the second half with the two teams combining for 41 points to push the game ‘over’ the total of 47 ½. Manning threw three touchdown passes in the win, including a pair to Eric Decker, but Cincinnati’s defense picked off the future Hall-of-Famer twice. Denver has won each of the past four meetings in the series, with Cincinnati’s last victory coming in 2004.

The Broncos will be off for the first weekend of the playoffs with just one win in its final two games, as both Denver and New England try to wrap up the top seed in the AFC. Denver needs to go the extra step and win both tonight and next week at home against Oakland, paired with a New England loss to Buffalo to capture home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.

Denver is making its first appearance on Monday night football this season, while beating Oakland last September at home in its previous showing under the Monday night lights. Two seasons ago, the Broncos split a pair of road games on Monday night with a defeat at Atlanta, but Denver erased a 24-0 deficit in a 35-24 triumph at San Diego. The Bengals are hosting just their second Monday night game since 2008, beating the Steelers last season at Paul Brown Stadium, 20-10.

Cincinnati has won and covered each of its past four opportunities in the home underdog role since 2012, including a 27-24 victory over Baltimore back in Week 8. The last time the Bengals lost in the home ‘dog role, it came to the Broncos two seasons ago.

Both teams are riding nice ‘under’ stretches, as Denver has cashed the ‘under’ in three straight games, while Cincinnati is 5-1 to the ‘under’ in the past six contests. However, the Bengals have drilled the ‘over’ in four of their last five home games.

The Broncos opened up as 3 ½-point road favorites and that number has remained there for the entire week. The total came out at 48, but is dropping to 47 ½ and even down to 47 at several books. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40’s, as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos (11-3) @ Bengals (9-4-1)—Denver clinched its division but is still playing for first round bye, #1 seed in AFC; Broncos won last four games, winning at KC/SD, while allowing only three TDs on 22 drives in those two games. Broncos won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they’ve won five of last seven visits here, but they’re 1-3 on artificial turf this season, with only win at the Jets- they’re 4-8 vs spread on carpet in Manning era. Cincy won four of its last five games; they’re still fighting for AFC North title, but they lost last two home games, to Browns/Steelers. Bengals are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine non-divisional home games; they’re 10-4-1 in last fifteen games as a home underdog. Four of last five Denver games, five of last six Bengal games stayed under the total.

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NFL

Monday, December 22

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Broncos at Bengals
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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 47.5)

Having already won the AFC West, the Denver Broncos can clinch a first-round bye when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night in a matchup featuring enormous playoffs implications for both teams. The Bengals are clinging to a half-game lead atop the AFC North and can nail down a fourth consecutive postseason slot with a victory and also have a chance at securing a bye. Denver has dominated the series, winning 13 of the past 15 meetings.

The Broncos are tied with New England for the best record, but the Patriots own the tiebreaker. The situation is more complicated for Cincinnati, which could find itself out of the playoff picture with losses to the Broncos and next week at division rival Pittsburgh. "We’re still in control of everything,” Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton said. “We know these next two games are going to be big. The way our division is going, everyone keeps winning. We know what we’re facing."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Broncos as 3.5-point road faves but that has settled at -3. The total opened at 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - QB Peyton Manning (Questionable, thigh), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Questionable, flu), TE Jacob Tamme (Probable, ribs), RB Juwan Thompson (Questionable, hip), RB Ronnie Hillman (Questionable, foot), LB Brandon Marshall (Out, foot). Bengals - TE Jermaine Gresham (Questionable, toe), CB Terence Newman (Questionable, undisclosed).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-40s with wind blowing toward the NW endzone at around 5 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.25) + Bengals (-1.25) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -4

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U): Peyton Manning is second in the league with 37 scoring passes and again has thrown for more than 4,000 yards, but his numbers have been rather ordinary during the current four-game winning streak. After tossing four TD passes in a win over Miami, Manning has three touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 195 passing yards over the past three as Denver continues to ride the legs of C.J. Anderson, who has rushed for 478 yards in the last four. Tight end Julius Thomas (12 touchdown receptions) returned to the lineup last week after a three-game absence and Demaryius Thomas is Manning's top weapon with eight 100-yard games in his last 11.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (9-4-1 SU,, 7-6-1 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Even though Manning's numbers have been down over the past month, Cincinnati's best chance to take down Denver is to keep the ball out of his hands and that could spell a heavy dose of bruising running back Jeremy Hill. The 240-pound rookie was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for 148 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 30-0 drubbing at Cleveland, but he will be facing a defense that ranks second in the league against the run, averaging of 71.6 yards allowed. Dalton has 15 TD passes versus 14 interceptions and will need a big outing from wideout A.J. Green, who has three 100-yard games in his last five.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bengals last five home games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 68 percent of bettors are backing the visiting Broncos.


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NFL

Monday, December 22


Wind, possibility of rain in store for MNF

Weather forecasts for Cincinnati are calling for a 15 percent possibility of rain by the time the Bengals and Denver Broncos kickoff on Monday Night Football, but that will increase to 74 percent as the game progresses.

Furthermore, wind will blow toward the northwest endzone at around 10 miles per hour throughout the course of the game.

As of Sunday evening, the Broncos were 3-point road favorites and the total was 47.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Virginia 76, Harvard 27-- Game was 39-8 at the half and Harvard is pretty good.

-- North Texas 62, Creighton 58-- Not a great result for the Big East.

-- Georgia 65, Seton Hall 47-- Not a great result for the Big East.

-- USC 74, Boston College 71-- Second year in row Trojans beat BC.

-- Toronto 115, New York 105-- Knicks are only two games ahead of the 76ers.

-- Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, are 3-3 this week, pending the Denver play tonight. They are now 54-32-1 this season.


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday......

Dolphins 37, Vikings 35-- Weird game with 41 points scored in 4th quarter; Miami won game by blocking punt for a safety with score tied in last 0:41, after they had tied game 30 seconds earlier. After game, Miami owner Ross announced that Joe Philbin will be back next season as Dolphins' coach, so good for him.

Packers 20, Buccaneers 3-- Green Bay just isn't the same offense away from home; they clinched playoff berth today, play Detroit for division title next week. Bucs had six first downs, gained 109 total yards- they've played this year without an NFL-level offensive coordinator. Lovie Smith needs to hire a good one this winter.

Lions 20, Bears 14-- Detroit is in playoffs; they play Packers next week for NFC North title and a first round bye. Bears were outgained by 133 yards; Clausen is now 1-10 as an NFL starter; this was his first start since 2010. Detroit had two TDs and a FG in six red zone drives. Jim Harbaugh-to-Bears rumors are getting stronger.

Falcons 30, Saints 14-- What were the odds of New Orleans losing five home games in a row? Saints were 36-11 SU at home from 2008-13, now they're out of playoffs and Drew Brees isn't getting any younger. Salary cap for next year will be $140M or so; Saints already have $160M in salary commitments for next year. Not good.

Patriots 17, Jets 16-- Gang Green is 3-12 and looking at sweeping changes, but they lost two games to Patriots this year by a combined three points. Edelman didn't make trip for this game; NE's only two TD drives were 36-38 yards; six of their last eight TD drives were less than 50 yards- their offense hasn't done much lately.

Steelers 20, Chiefs 12-- Pittsburgh is in playoffs for first time since 2011; they play Bengals next week for AFC North title. Chiefs have now lost four of last five games; they had three FGs on four red zone drives, even after a successful fake FG near goal line. KC needs to beat Chargers next week and get help to make playoffs.

Panthers 17, Browns 13-- Carolina is 6-8-1.......and in first place; they play Falcons next week in winner-take-all battle for NFC South title, but NFL didn't want game in primetime, so they put Bengals-Steelers on NBC instead. Johnny Manziel hurt his hamstring and left early; his rookie season didn't go too well.

Texans 25, Ravens 13-- Putrid exhibition by Baltimore team that needed a win, with 25 yards on 28 plays in first half. Ravens lost to team using its 4th-string QB who was sitting in a tree bow-hunting deer last Sunday. Houston had one TD on seven red zone drives; their only TD was thrown by RB Foster. Baltimore needs help to make playoffs now.

Giants 37, Rams 27-- St Louis needs a QB who can stay healthy and they need to grow up; too many times, they shoot themselves in foot with stupid, immature stuff that has given them a bad reputation with NFL refs, which is why they get penalized so much. They were down 10-0 in this game before offense took the field.

Raiders 26, Bills 24-- Major gag job by Buffalo team that wasted upset of Packers by losing to a 3-12 team. Bills' last winning season was ten years ago; they can still get to 9-7 next week, but they'll have to beat Patriot team that will need win for home edge in playoffs if the Broncos win in Cincinnati tonight.

Cowboys 42, Colts 7-- Indy had great fake punt dialed up when down 7-0; recevier dropped pass while wide open. Dallas wins NFC East, holding Indy team to one yard rushing and owning a 20-yard edge in field position. Teams that win field position by 10+ yards are now 84-4 this season; Vikings were 4th loser in Miami today.

Seahawks 35, Cardinals 6-- Coach Arians has kept Arizona's season pasted together despite a rash of injuries but there's only so much he can do; you can't beat good teams without a good QB. Total yardage was 596-216; Seattle can win NFC West by beating Rams last week; they lost first meeting this seaosn with St Louis. .

-- If the playoffs started this morning, they would look like this:
AFC-- 1) Patriots 2) Broncos 3) Bengals 4) Colts 5) Steelers 6) Chargers
NFC-- 1) Seahawks 2) Lions 3) Cowboys 4) Panthers 5) Cardinals 6) Packers

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Packers, Steelers, Panthers choices to win

December 24, 2014

Mike McCarthy can't wait for Sunday. Can't blame him.

The thought of clinching the NFC North at Lambeau Field certainly is an enticing one. McCarthy's Packers can do so with a victory over the Lions, whose recent history in Green Bay is, well, dismal.

Detroit has not won there since 1991. And the Pack is 7-0 at Lambeau this season.

Both teams are 11-4 and the winner still could get home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs if Seattle falls to St. Louis. The focus is not on anywhere but the Green Bay tundra for McCarthy and his players.

''I think it's great that Detroit and our records are the same and we're playing for the title,'' the Packers coach says. ''Yeah, I think this is exactly how you'd want it. I know it's how I'd prefer it.''

Especially at home, where the Packers (No. 3, AP Pro32) are 7 1-2 point favorites over the Lions (No. 6, AP Pro32).

Spread should be higher.

PACKERS, 31-20

No. 23 Cleveland (plus 9) at No. 12 (tie) Baltimore

Ravens put themselves in desperate spot with recent losses.

BEST BET: RAVENS, 26-10

No. 18 (tie) Carolina (plus 3 1-2) at No. 20 Atlanta

Panthers sneak off with second straight division crown - at 7-8-1.

UPSET SPECIAL: PANTHERS, 20-19

No. 9 Cincinnati (plus 3) at No. 7 Pittsburgh

Both are headed to playoffs. Steelers get AFC North title.

STEELERS, 27-23

No. 11 San Diego (plus 2 1-2) at No. 14 Kansas City

Chargers can claim final AFC wild-card slot, just as they did in 2013.

CHARGERS, 21-20

No. 22 St. Louis (plus 13) at No. 1 Seattle

Home-field advantage to the Seahawks. NFC Beware!

SEAHAWKS, 23-13

No. 8 Arizona (plus 5 1-2) at No. 18 (tie) San Francisco

Harbaugh and Niners must envy what Cardinals have done. But Arizona is so banged-up ...

49ERS, 17-13

No. 28 Oakland (plus 14) at No. 5 Denver

There's something rotten in Denver, but not rotten enough to lose this one.

BRONCOS, 27-17

No. 16 Buffalo (plus 3 1-2) at No. 2 New England

Patriots have nothing to play for, but Belichick won't let up.

PATRIOTS, 23-16

No. 4 Dallas (minus 6 1-2) at No. 26 Washington

Redskins won at Dallas this year. But Cowboys don't lose on road.

COWBOYS, 33-23

No. 10 Indianapolis (minus 7) at No. 32 Tennessee

Colts need a wake-up call heading into playoffs. Should get it here.

COLTS, 30-9

No. 25 New Orleans (minus 3 1-2) at No. 31 Tampa Bay

The two losing NFC South teams without a chance for the playoffs.

SAINTS, 27-10

No. 30 Jacksonville (plus 10) at No. 15 Houston

Texans have outside shot at advancing.

TEXANS, 23-16

No. 29 New York Jets (plus 5 1-2) at No. 17 Miami

No Rex Redux likely, even if Jets repeat upset of Miami from last December.

DOLPHINS, 22-20

No. 12 (tie) Philadelphia (plus 2 1-2) at No. 21 New York Giants

Eagles have nothing to gain here, Giants can close with flourish.

GIANTS, 26-24

No. 27 Chicago (plus 6 1-2) at No. 24 Minnesota

End of the Cutler-Trestman-Emery era? If so, it ends ignominiously.

VIKINGS, 21-16

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2014 RECORD: Against spread: This week (9-6); Season (117-112-5). Straight up: This week (10-6); Season (158-81-1)

Best Bet: 6-10 against spread, 10-6 straight up.

Upset special: 8-8 against spread, 6-10 straight up.

[StarDust Bum]

Dalton sick as Bengals get ready for Pitt

December 24, 2014

CINCINNATI (AP) - Andy Dalton has been sent home from practice because he came down with the flu, the latest Bengals player to miss time with an illness going through the team.

The Bengals (10-4-1)said Wednesday they expect him to be fully recovered by the time they go to Pittsburgh (10-5) for a Sunday night game that will decide the AFC North title. The loser gets a wild card berth.

They also expect to have receiver A.J. Green back. He bruised his upper right arm during a win over Denver on Monday night and failed to make a catch.

Cincinnati has run for 200 yards in each of the last two games, an indication of where their offense is headed as the playoffs approach.

[StarDust Bum]

Griffin III limited with sprained shoulder

December 24, 2014

ASHBURN, Va. (AP) - Robert Griffin III has a sprained throwing shoulder that limited him in practice Wednesday as the Washington Redskins prepared for their season finale against the Dallas Cowboys.

Griffin appeared to be throwing normally during the portion of the workout open to reporters, but coach Jay Gruden said the shoulder has some ''lingering soreness.''

''It needs to get better,'' Gruden said. ''I don't think it's a serious deal, but if it affects his throwing, then it could be an issue.''

Gruden said Griffin was hurt on a sack by Fletcher Cox in the fourth quarter of Saturday's 27-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Griffin remained in the game.

The Redskins have only one other quarterback, Kirk Cousins, on the 53-man roster, but Gruden said he doesn't think the injury is serious enough to bring in someone else as a contingency measure.

''I don't anticipate that happening,'' Gruden said.

Colt McCoy, who has started five games this season, is on injured reserve with a neck injury.

Griffin will get a chance to rest the shoulder Thursday because the Redskins are not practicing on Christmas Day.

Griffin has had an injury-riddled three seasons in the NFL. He's had two major leg injuries, including a dislocated ankle that sidelined him for six games this season.

Left tackle Trent Williams did not practice Wednesday, but he said he expected to play against Dallas. Williams has a sprained right shoulder and also played through a sprained right knee and sprained right ankle this season. He was nevertheless selected to his third Pro Bowl on Tuesday.

''I didn't put my best product on the field a lot of times this year,'' Williams said, ''just trying to play through injuries to be there for my teammates.''

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 16

December 22, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL WEEK 16 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 5-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 8-7
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-9-1

NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 155-78-1
Against the Spread 112-118-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 132-101-1
Against the Spread 115-115-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-124-4

Biggest Favorite to Cash

Green Bay (-11) wasn’t spectacular but it got the job done in its 20-3 road win against Tampa Bay.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Washington (+7.5) upset Philadelphia 27-24 on Saturday at home. The Redskins were listed as high plus-260 (Bet $100 to win $260) on the money-line.

Home/Away

Through 15 games, the home team went 8-7 both straight up and against the spread.

Win Total Tickets

Three teams jumped ‘over’ the win total expectations set by oddsmakers in Week 16.

Green Bay (11-4) – Over 10
Miami (8-7) Over 7.5
San Diego (9-6) – Over 8

RESULTS

Road Trap

The last two weeks, NFL road favorites went 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS.

On Sunday, the home underdogs rebounded with a 4-2 record versus the number.

Two of the ‘dogs, Texans and Raiders, captured outright wins.

Green Bay – Win/Cover
New England – Win/No-Cover
Baltimore - Loss
Detroit – Win/No-Cover
Buffalo – Loss
Seattle - Win/Cover
Denver – Pending at Cincinnati on MNF

Point-Spreads Matter

New England (-9.5) trailed the N.Y. Jets 10-7 at halftime and rallied for a 17-16 road victory. This outcome was déjà vu for some bettors as the Patriots defeated the Jets 27-25 but failed to cover the number.

Detroit (-10) stopped Chicago 20-14 and actually had a shot to at least push but they settled for a field goal late when leading 17-14. Some bettors may’ve scored a middle on this game as the Lions opened as 4 ½-point favorites. The line jumped up after the Bears announced they were starting Jimmy Clausen at quarterback instead of Jay Cutler.

Carolina (-6) was another team that could’ve been middle. Earlier in the week, the Panthers were installed as one-point home ‘dogs. The books weren’t aware QB Cam Newton would play and once he did, Carolina was bumped up. The Panthers won 17-13 and failed to cover.

Miami (-4.5) captured a wild 37-35 shootout victory over Minnesota with a safety late in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins actually led this game 28-20 but allowed the Vikings to tie the game with key penalties

NFC South Showdown

Atlanta’s 30-14 victory over New Orleans 30-14 as six-point underdogs sets up a preliminary playoff game against Carolina (6-9-1) next Sunday from the Georgia Dome. The winner will claim the NFC South and be the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs.

Not so Super

Prior to this season, the Saints were 16-4 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games played at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This season, New Orleans started 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) before ending the season with five consecutive losses.

Playoff Notes

Below is a quick look at the possible seeds for the 2014-15 playoffs.

AFC

1) New England/Denver
2) New England/Denver
3) Indianapolis/AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
4) Indianapolis/AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
5) AFC North (Pittsburgh-Cincinnati)
6) San Diego, Baltimore, Houston or Kansas City

NFC

1) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
2) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) NFC South (Atlanta-Carolina)
5) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)
6) NFC West (Seattle/Arizona) or NFC North (Detroit/Green Bay)


Totals

Sunday’s early action saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 in the first-half and the results stayed true for the game outcomes too (7-1).

Overall, the 'under' owns a 9-5-1 mark in Week 16.

The lone occurred in the Miami-Minnesota matchup as the Dolphins nipped the Vikings 37-35. The two teams combined for 41 of their 72 points in the final quarter.

Detroit saw the ‘under’ improve to 7-0 in its road games this season. Next Sunday, the Lions visit the Packers.

The Steelers finally saw an ‘under’ ticket cash at Heinz Field. The ‘over’ was 6-0 in the first six regular season games played at this venue. Next Sunday, Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati.

Tampa Bay saw another ‘under’ ticket connect (6-1) at home. The Buccaneers were held to three points in their loss to the Packers and haven’t scored more than 17 at home this season.

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 16

December 22, 2014

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the opening bowl Saturday and Week 16 in the NFL. Each week, there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Utah State (-10) 21, UTEP 6 (46): The New Mexico Bowl was a defensive showdown with both teams missing in key scoring opportunities throughout the game. Utah State would miss two field goals in the game, but the key play in the may have been UTEP failing going for it on fourth down inside of the Utah State 10-yard line in the final minute of the first half. That allowed the Aggies to lead 7-3 into the second half, a lead they extended to 14-3 early in the third quarter. The Utah State defense did a great job with 15 third down stops in the game against UTEP, but the Miners looked like they would escape with the cover, trimming the margin to just eight points with a short field goal with three minutes to go in the game. Getting the ball back at the 35-yard line, the Aggies broke a big run on first down and it appeared that Utah State would run out the clock as UTEP did not take its remaining timeout after the Aggies picked up another first down. Utah State kept the offense on the attack, rushing in another touchdown against an uninterested defense and securing the favorite cover with a touchdown with just over a minute to go. UTEP made a mild threat on its final possession, but came up empty after crossing midfield.

Air Force (+2) 38, Western Michigan 24 (59½): Western Michigan dominated the early action of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl with a huge early yardage edge but only a 10-6 lead early in the second quarter. The momentum swung to the Falcons with back-to-back long scoring drives to lead by 10 heading into the half. Both defenses stepped up in a third quarter that featured only an Air Force field goal and then Western Michigan charged back into the game with an early fourth quarter touchdown to trim the deficit to six. Starting near midfield on its next possession, Western Michigan moved into Air Force territory before disaster struck with a fumble returned 60 yards for an Air Force touchdown. The Falcons converted for two to bring the lead to 14 and essentially put the game away in a game where the losing team wound up with more yards. Twenty-nine fourth quarter points including two touchdowns in the final six minutes also pushed the total just ‘over’.

Bowling Green (+4) 33, South Alabama 28 (55): The Falcons stormed out to a 14-0 lead and after settling for two short field goals in the second quarter, Bowling Green still led 20-7 at the break as a slight underdog in the Camellia Bowl. The teams traded touchdowns in the third quarter to keep the margin at 13, but South Alabama made a fourth quarter run. The Jaguars trimmed the lead to six points early in the final frame and the defense stepped up with a goal line stand with three stops from inside the 2-yard line on Bowling Green’s next possession. The Falcons would then miss an 18-yard field goal attempt to keep the Jaguars within one score. Both teams had to punt on their next possessions, but South Alabama broke through with a big pass play in the final minutes, eventually cashing in with a touchdown to take a 28-27 lead with about a minute and a half to go. South Alabama kicked it deep, but the defense playing aggressively got burned as Bowling Green hit a 78-yard touchdown pass for a touchdown on first down to give the Falcons the lead right back. An interception would end the final threat for the Jaguars with the favorite spread that was -2½ most of the week still in play for many as a touchdown and the two-point conversion would have put the final margin at three points. The two late touchdowns also pushed the game ‘over’ as well.

San Diego Chargers (+2) 38, San Francisco 49ers 35 (40½): In the late game Saturday, the maligned San Francisco offense came to play early with a 28-7 lead at the half, though the defense accounted for one of the touchdowns. The Chargers climbed back in the game with two touchdowns in a three-minute span late in the third quarter, also with one coming on defense. The 49ers would answer with a 90-yard run from Colin Kaepernick, showing the flash that has been missing much of this season. With a 14-point lead well into the fourth quarter, the 49ers looked in great position even after the Chargers scored to cut the margin to seven points with just over five minutes to go. A strong kick return appeared to put the 49ers in great shape to at least add a field goal, starting at the San Diego 45-yard line but the Chargers stepped up on defense to get the stop. Philip Rivers led the two-minute drill impressively though San Diego had some close calls, surviving a Rivers fumble and surviving a replay review on a key fourth down conversion. San Diego wound up with a touchdown with 29 seconds to go to force overtime, leaving the spread result still in play. San Francisco had a 60-yard field goal attempt at the end of regulation that missed. The 49ers got the ball first and appeared to make a big play early to move into San Diego territory, but the end result was a fumble at the end of the run. The Chargers relied mainly on the running game in overtime and Nick Novak nailed the 40-yard field goal to win, keeping San Diego’s playoff hopes alive.

Green Bay Packers (-11) 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 (48½): Most double-digit underdogs that allow only 20 points will be a good bet to cover, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers posted a woeful 109 total yards at home on Sunday. The defense came up with a few big stops and it was a one-score game into the fourth quarter with the Packers leading only 10-3 after Green Bay was stopped on fourth and goal in the third quarter. The Packers added a short field goal in the fourth quarter to go up by 10 and then in the final three minutes the Packers failed on two attempts at the goal line before finally cashing in a touchdown to get past the heavy road favorite spread for the first time in the game. Tampa Bay’s final threat ended with an interception as Green Bay escaped with a win and cover in a dominant but underwhelming performance.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2½) 20, Kansas City Chiefs 12 (49½): While the key plays in this game were before the fourth quarter, the final score was misleading with the Chiefs with fairly significant production edges despite the loss. The key play in the game was an aggressive decision by the Chiefs to go for it on fourth-and-inches from the Pittsburgh 12-yard line with no timeouts and 27 seconds to go in the first half. This came right after a replay review took away the first down for the Chiefs. Pittsburgh made a big stop and took a 10-6 lead into halftime. The Chiefs drove into scoring territory early in the third quarter only to lose a fumble that survived review without confirmation. The Steelers cashed in with a touchdown to lead by 11, but the Chiefs moved the ball with ease before settling for another field goal early in the fourth quarter. Aided by a big pass interference call on a big third down play, the Steelers answered with a field goal and the Chiefs again bogged down in the red zone to settle for another short field goal on its next drive late in the game and the onside kick attempt failed.

Carolina Panthers (-6) 17, Cleveland Browns 13 (40): There were winners, losers, and those that pushed on this game with the line at -3 or -3½ most of the week, briefly hitting -4 on Saturday before coming back down and then with Cam Newton confirmed to start Sunday morning the line skyrocketed up in the two hours before kickoff. Carolina had a 27-8 first down edge with nearly twice as many yards, but the Panthers could not pull away. Nearly half of the yardage in the game for the Browns came on an 81-yard pass play in the fourth quarter that put the Browns briefly in front with Brian Hoyer in the game. Carolina quickly answered to take the lead back at 17-13, leaving the margin right in the middle of the lines throughout the weekend. It looked like Carolina would get the opportunity to tack on more points with an immediate interception on Cleveland’s next drive deep in their own territory, but on the return Josh Norman fumbled to give the Browns the ball right back. The game ended with Carolina on the Cleveland 11-yard line, taking a knee with Cleveland’s timeouts exhausted as the Panthers deserved a more convincing margin.

Seattle Seahawks (-9) 35, Arizona Cardinals 6 (37): The final score on this game was in line with the yardage as the Seahawks had nearly a 3/1 production edge, but the Sunday night showdown in the NFC West was an eight-point game into the fourth quarter with Arizona still holding on to the cover on the late week lines that climbed from -7 to -8½ and -9. On the first 15 offensive plays Seattle had in the fourth quarter, they wound up with three touchdowns to put the game away as Arizona was not able to do much on offense behind Ryan Lindley, but the bend but don’t break Arizona defense kept the Cardinals in the game most of the way. The third touchdown was enough to push the game with one of the lowest totals of the season just ‘over’ as well.

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Cowboys, Seahawks hurt books

December 22, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Even though Week 16 turned out ok for Las Vegas sportsbooks like The Wynn, Saturday’s NFL betting action put them in an early hole and a couple late games on Sunday involving top NFC contenders ended up preventing them from scoring an even bigger victory against bettors. The Dallas Cowboys (11-4) and Seattle Seahawks (11-4) flexed their muscles with dominant wins to help even things out a bit, according to Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations.

The Cowboys opened as 3-point home favorites and closed -3.5 before routing the Indianapolis Colts 42-7 while the Seahawks opened as 7-point road chalk and were bet up to -9.5 prior to crushing the Arizona Cardinals 35-6 in the Sunday Night Football game. Dallas clinched the NFC East title when the Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) lost to the Washington Redskins 27-24 on Saturday as 7-point favorites but took advantage of a team with little to play for since the Colts (10-5) clinched the AFC South last week.

In addition, Seattle took over the lead in the NFC West from Arizona by virtue of a sweep in the season series, prompting Avello to drop the future odds on the defending Super Bowl champions down to 5/2 to repeat. The Seahawks are also the 10/11 favorites to win the NFC as they currently own the conference’s No. 1 seed too and would need to either lose next week at home to the St. Louis Rams (6-9) or see the Detroit Lions (11-4) and Green Bay Packers (11-4) battle to a tie in their NFC North title game to fall from that top spot. Avello said both games cost his property, but he is more of a believer in Seattle right now as the team to beat.

“Dallas was a very bad game and the Seahawks was a bad game,” Avello said. “But I put a little more weight on the Seahawk win than I would on the Cowboy win. The Colts really had nothing to play for, they were terrible overall. They were taking chances and doing things they probably normally wouldn’t do. Tony Romo’s receivers were open by 10 yards. It was just an overall poor performance by the Colts.

“Seattle, the only reason I put an asterisk next to it is because Arizona had to play with a quarterback that really doesn’t belong in the NFL. But that being said, looking at past performances over the last few weeks, the team’s played phenomenal.”

NFL bettors had played the Redskins (4-11) and San Diego Chargers (9-6) on Saturday, with the former ending the playoff dreams of their opponent while the latter kept their postseason hopes alive with a dramatic come-from-behind victory. Washington had opened as an 8-point home underdog, and San Diego fell from +2 to +1 at San Francisco and was even a 1-point favorite briefly before defeating the 49ers in overtime, 38-35. The Chargers trailed 28-7 at halftime before rallying with two touchdowns in the last 5:15 to force OT.

“We got hurt on (the Eagles-Redskins) game, and I actually lost on that second game too,” Avello said. “I opened the (Chargers-49ers) game probably lower than anybody else, I just had house money on that side, that’s all. I was at 1 (San Diego) at one point, just shortly before game time.

“If the 49ers needed the stop to the make the playoffs, they would have played differently. I just look at it as a lack of motivation there for that team.”

For the second year in a row, San Diego can qualify for the playoffs in Week 17, just needing a road win against the Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) to get in. However, the Chiefs require more than a victory to earn a berth in the postseason, with the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens both needing to lose as well.

“Kansas City’s got an outside shot,” Avello said. “They need to win, and they need a lot of help. But they’ve got a chance too. It will be a tough one.”

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Sunday, December 28

Detroit 0-3 L3 2nd BB A… 2-14 .500 > off SU A win vs opp off A
GREEN BAY SERIES: 4-1 L5 H… 12-2 H w/ double rev vs .500 > opp

Jacksonville 5-0 A w/ single rev vs div opp (1-0 TY)… 1-7 LRG
HOUSTON SERIES: 1-3-1 L5 H… 2-8 vs opp w/ single rev (2-1 TY)

Cincinnati 4-0 dogs off H vs opp off H… 6-1 LRG dogs vs div opp
PITTSBURGH SERIES: 7-2 L9 / 5-2 L7 H… 0-5 favs off H vs opp off H

Indianapolis 4-1 aft Dallas… 0-8 off non-div A vs opp w/ rev
TENNESSEE SERIES: 0-4-1 L5… 7-1 LHG dogs… 5-1 off Thursday

Cleveland 1-5 LRG vs div… 2-10 off non-div w/ single rev vs div opp
BALTIMORE SERIES: 1-3 L4 H… 1-5 .500 > off AFC South vs div opp

Buffalo 10-2 in 2nd BB A… 1-10 LRG dogs vs .500 > opp
NEW ENGLAND 5-1 aft NY Jets… 18-4 LHG… 1-8 O//U off SU 1 pt win

Ny Jets 10-3 LRG vs div opp… 1-7 off H vs opp off H
MIAMI SERIES: 2-8 L10 H… 0-4 LHG vs opp w/ rev

Carolina 6-0 LRG dogs vs < .500 opp… 11-2 off AFC vs < .500 div
ATLANTA 12-1 Game Sixteen off div… 1-4 < .500 LHG vs div opp

Chicago 1-6 LRG dogs vs opp w/ rev… 9-0 O/U A off H
MINNESOTA 4-0 off AFC vs opp off H… 13-2 off A vs opp off H

San Diego 5-0 LRG… 4-0 OFF NFC (3-0 TY)
KANSAS CITY 0-7 LHG… 1-4 aft Pittsburgh vs opp off SU win

Philadelphia 7-1 .500 > off SU fav loss vs < .500 div opp (0-1 TY)
NY GIANTS 0-8 H aft St. Louis… 1-5 < .500 off A vs opp off A

Dallas 1-7 A off AFC vs < .500 off SU win… 1-6 LRG
WASHINGTON SERIES: 4-0 L4 H… 7-0 LHG off SU win vs .500 > opp

New Orleans 5-1 LRG favs… 0-4 aft Atlanta… 1-5 Game Sixteen A
TAMPA BAY 6-1 <. 500 dogs w/ rev aft G Bay… 1-7 LHG off non-div

St. Louis 6-1 aft allow 35 > pts… 0-7 < .500 LRG vs div opp
SEATTLE SERIES: 6-1 L7 H… 6-0 LHG w/ rev vs opp off SU loss

Arizona 1-8 LRG off DD SU loss… 1-7 A aft score < 10 pts
S FRANCISCO SERIES: 4-1 L5 H… 7-1 off AFC vs opp off SU loss

Oakland 5-0 < .500 DD div dogs w/ rev… 0-7 aft score 25 > pts
DENVER 1-8 .500 > off SUATS A loss vs < .500 opp off H

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NFL Opening Line Report: Packers 7.5-point faves with NFC North title on the line

What more could you ask for in Week 17 of the NFL season? You’ve got a mad scramble for playoff seeding among several teams, and some extremely key matchups, including one at the hallowed frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

Green Bay and Detroit both have paths to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, if they get some help in the other games – though first and foremost, both teams need a win to avoid being relegated to the wild card and a first-round road playoff game.

The Lions bested Green Bay 19-7 as a 1-point home underdog back in September. Detroit (11-4 SU, 7-8 ATS) has won its last four in a row SU (2-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 20-14 victory at Chicago, though the Lions failed to cash as 10-point chalk.

The Packers (11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) have won six of their last seven (4-3 ATS), coasting past Tampa Bay 20-3 Sunday laying 11.5 points on the road. John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, pegged the Pack a 7.5-point favorite in the regular-season finale.

“We know the public money and teaser money will be on the Packers so we didn’t want to open at less than a touchdown,” Lester said. “I do expect we will have some of the sharps on the underdog.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Pittsburgh (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) clinched a playoff spot by besting Kansas City 20-12 on Sunday giving 2.5 points, winning and covering for the third straight week. The Bengals (9-4-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) still have some work to do, wrapping up Week 16 by hosting Denver in the Monday night game.

The Steelers have already clinched a playoff spot; the winner of this game would take the AFC North title, but if the Bengals falter against Denver and Pittsburgh, they could find themselves missing the playoffs altogether.

“Regardless of what happens Monday night, Cincinnati will want this game,” Lester said. “The Steelers are hot, and with all of their fans and supporters, we will have to be generous on their side. If nothing major changes from a personnel perspective Monday and the Bengals beat Denver, Pittsburgh will be at least 6-point chalk.”

The matchup could bring quite a climactic end to the regular season, as it’s been moved to the Sunday night slot. There is no Monday night game in Week 17.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-10.5)

The Pats (12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won 10 of their last 11 SU, cashing eight times in the process, though they barely held off the hapless New York Jets on Sunday in a 17-16 road win giving 10 points. The Bills (8-7 SU and ATS) saw their playoff hopes end in a 26-24 loss at Oakland as a 7-point fave.

For the moment, this game has big ramifications for New England securing the No. 1 seed – but tonight’s game could make it a moot point.

“Monday’s outcome could have an impact on this line,” Lester said. “If Denver loses, then there’s a real chance New England will rest its starters in Week 17, and that would drop the numbers significantly. If the top seed in the AFC is on the line, we will post the Pats as double-digit favorites.”

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)

San Francisco has completely fallen apart and will miss the playoffs altogether, after making the last three NFC title games and earning a Super Bowl appearance. The Niners (7-8 SU, 6-8-1 ATS) were dealt a stunning blow Saturday, squandering a 28-7 lead in a 38-35 home loss to San Diego as a 2-point chalk.

But Arizona, on its third-string quarterback, is struggling too, while hoping to get some sort of momentum heading into the playoffs. The Cards (11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS) could have clinched the NFC West on Sunday night, but visiting Seattle ran roughshod in a 35-6 victory, with Arizona a hefty 9.5-point underdog.

“You could see the Niners crumbling at the seams on Saturday night,” Lester said. “There is no doubt that they’d like to finish the season with a win at their new stadium, but with the internal issues and their coach (Jim Harbaugh) all but gone, who knows what kind of effort or focus they’ll have.”

Still, Lester said he’ll have to hold off on making a line. The Cardinals remain alive for the division crown, but there’s uncertainty as to who will start at quarterback in the regular-season finale.

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NFL line watch: Jets bettors should wait to get down on Rex's swan song

Spread to bet now

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)

The Giants started their annual late-season surge about three weeks too late, but at least they’re not mailing it in in December like the Cowboys used to.

But is New York playing well or are the Giants just getting fat against the soft underbelly of their schedule? New York’s last four opponents slog into Week 17 with a combined record of 15-45.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have to be scratching their heads after pissing away a playoff spot with that loss to Washington and figure to take things out on the Giants. Philadelphia (9-6) has been mediocre (3-4) on the road, but should be motivated enough to win outright.


Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)

The Jets lost their version of the Super Bowl when they came up a point short to the Patriots Sunday, and now they have to hit the road in what certainly will be Rex Ryan’s final game as head coach.

This is basically a matchup of teams that have played hard but once again did not have the offensive talent to make things tough for New England.

Heavy money is on Miami as bettors seem willing to swallow the points. So if you like the Jets to play a fifth consecutive competitive game, hang on a bit to see if the line nudges up a half-point. If it doesn’t, the 4.5 will be there for you any time you want it.


Total to watch

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (42.5)

The Ravens’ loss at Houston Sunday may have turned their season upside down. Instead of cruising into the playoffs, 9-6 Baltimore now needs to defeat the Browns (definitely doable) and also hope that the Chargers can’t close their own deal and somehow lose in Kansas City.

There is good reason for Baltimore to keep things simple against the Browns. Joe Flacco threw three picks against the Texans and was sent to the ground 10 times out of 50 dropbacks. Expect a more-conservative game plan (and fewer points) this time around. Under players shouldn’t be scared off by the relatively low 42.5 total.