The bum's nfl december trends/news/ stats/ all you need to know to wager the games!

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Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves

Thanksgiving is long gone and all that’s left is a dried up turkey wing, congealed cranberry sauce and some grey potatoes. And of course, the home stretch of the NFL season.

December is here and teams are fighting for playoff positioning in Week 14. We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the action coming in on this week’s NFL offerings and where those lines will end up come kickoff.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears – Open: +3.5, Move: +4

If your book hasn’t gone to Dallas -4 for the Thursday night, they probably will soon. Cowboys money is coming in strong on the road team, despite Dallas getting exposed by the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day. According to MGM, ticket count is heavy on Dallas a 4/1 pace.

“We’ve taken quite a bit of money on Dallas and will likely be pushing it up to -4 very soon,” says Stoneback. “We’re heavy on Dallas sides and also there are a lot parlays. And we’re on the verge of going to 51.5 or 52 on the total. Looks like we’ll need the underdog and the Under.”


Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3.5, Move: +4

Some books are dealing a full four points on this line following the announcement that Cleveland will stick with QB Brian Hoyer and not start rookie QB Johnny Manziel. “Johnny Football” has been a draw for football bettors, sparking a massive wave of futures action on the Browns when drafted. But even if Manziel was to get the nod against the Colts, Stoneback doesn’t think the public would jump on board the Browns.

“Being that they’re winning and they are where they’re at with Hoyer, I don’t think people would have bet them any different (if Manziel played),” says Stoneback. “If it was like the third game of the season and they were playing poorly, I could see it having an impact. But the hype has worn down.”


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +4, Move: +5.5

Books have gone as high as Houston -5.5 with this AFC South battle, despite the Jaguars coming off a win over the Giants last Sunday – just their second victory of the season and sixth in the last two years. Jacksonville is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games off a victory.

“There’s no excitement for Jacksonville,” says Stoneback. “In fact, we haven’t written one single ticket on the Jaguars at any of our books as of Wednesday morning. Not a single bet at 12 different properties. There is someone out there with them tied in a parlay though. One guy.”


Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

This line opened at pick at some books while MGM posted Arizona -1 and have stayed there despite a growing amount of money on the Cardinals. Stoneback says they actually have more tickets written on the Chiefs but more money riding on the home side.

“It’s a bunch of smaller wagers on the Chiefs,” he says. “This is one of those games where the public and sharps are going to be split. Kansas City is pretty popular with the public. There’s a lot of parlay money on them for a Wednesday.”


Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

Some offshore markets are offering Seattle +1.5 with the early action hitting the Eagles hard. Stoneback, who is dealing Philadelphia -1, expects that money to even out by gametime. As of Wednesday, there is one more ticket on the Eagles than the Seahawks at MGM’s Las Vegas properties. The total in this offense-versus-defense showdown is a tough number to set and has dropped from the opener of 49 points.

“We’re currently at 49 but there are some places out there with a 48,” says Stoneback. “The majority of the early money is on the Under 49.”


Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos – Open: -10, Move: -9.5

A limit play on the Bills moved this spread off the key number of Denver -10 early in the week. As of Wednesday, that’s the only significant action on this game. However, Stoneback says the money will come in on Denver – as it does every week.

“It’ll be the same scenario as it always is: Sharps on Bills and the public on the Broncos,” he says. “The real danger you get into is when the public and sharps are both on Denver.”

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Vegas Line Moves - Week 14

December 5, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Week 14 of the NFL season features a few good matchups but also some stinkers, leaving bettors to take a wait-and-see approach on many of them, likely waiting until game day to make most of their moves. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said there has not been much early NFL betting action at his property yet, although he expects that will change as the games draw closer.

“There are some really awful games on the slate this week,” Avello said. “There’s Houston-Jacksonville, Giants-Tennessee, Jets-Minnesota, there’s just some real raggedy games this week. I don’t think your general public-type of guy bets those games. Of course sharp guys are always looking for the best number they can possibly get. Except for your basic wiseguy type of moves, there’s nothing there this week right now.”

One of the few big games in Week 14 involves two teams fighting for the playoffs as the Arizona Cardinals (9-3) host the Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at University of Phoenix Stadium. Both teams have lost two in a row, and this game opened as a Pick’em at The Wynn before seeing the Chiefs go to -1.

“First of all, Arizona’s struggling offensively – a lot of injuries,” Avello said. “I think (Larry) Fitzgerald’s back this week, that helps a little bit. Kansas City’s also in need of a win after losing a couple straight. Arizona sure could use a win here also, so it’s a tough call here.”

The St. Louis Rams (5-7) have also been an early mover, going from an opener of -2.5 at The Wynn to -3 as they visit the struggling Washington Redskins (3-9), who are riding a four-game losing streak. The Rams are favored on the road for the first time in almost four years and have gone 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in their past five games under that scenario.

“The Rams are getting some love this week,” Avello said. “I get it, I know the Rams are playing a lot better football than a lot of the contenders are playing. The problem with the Rams is that they could run the table, and I don’t think it would to do them any good. Washington, that team’s an absolute mess. Players are just keying on a team that’s playing pretty good.”

In addition, the week’s two remaining prime-time games offer bettors solid opportunities to either back two of the best teams in the NFL or fade them following their exciting showdown last week at Lambeau Field. The New England Patriots (9-3) lost to the Green Bay Packers (9-3) in that game 26-21 as 3-point underdogs, and both teams are favored in Week 14.

The Patriots visit the San Diego Chargers (8-4) as 3.5-point road favorites on Sunday Night Football while the Packers host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) as 12-point home chalk on Monday Night Football. The Chargers and Falcons are both coming off wins last week.

“If you get a Charger quarterback that can give you a consistent game, I’d give them a shot,” Avello said of San Diego’s Philip Rivers. “Last week he took the team down the field and ended up winning the football game. He does that sometimes, and you wonder why he can’t do that all the time. Yes, there’s different situations, I get all that. But Peyton Manning does it, (Tom) Brady does it, Aaron Rodgers does it (Drew) Brees does it. This guy’s supposed to be in that category, but he just loses something, and I don’t know what that it is. I just don’t know.

“You’re getting the Patriots, and the Patriots lost last week. Not that they can’t lose two in a row, because in pro football you certainly can. They played good enough to win that game last week. They certainly played good enough to cover. The guy missed a field goal.”

New England has not lost two straight games in the regular season since 2012. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a double-digit dog for just the third time since 2002 and has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games in that situation. For that reason, Avello thinks the Falcons have a shot to cover the number against the Packers, who have gone 5-0 vs. the line in their past five at home.

“I personally think so, but I’m not sure they’re going to be bet,” Avello said. “Atlanta also is in the hunt for a playoff spot, they seem to be playing better football lately. I guess what you saw last week was Green Bay beat one of the best teams in football. So if they beat them, they should handle Atlanta easily. That’s what the public sees.”

LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK - WEEK 14 BETTING MOVES

Rotation Team Open Current Move

151 RAVENS - - -
152 DOLPHINS 3 2.5 -0.5

153 STEELERS - - -
154 BENGALS 4 3 -1

155 COLTS 3.5 3.5 0
156 BROWNS - - -

157 TEXANS 3.5 6 2.5
158 JAGUARS - - -

159 GIANTS 0 1 1
160 TITANS - - -

161 PANTHERS - - -
162 SAINTS 9 10 1

163 BUCCANEERS - - -
164 LIONS 9.5 10 0.5

165 RAMS 1.5 3 1.5
166 REDSKINS - - -

167 JETS - - -
168 VIKINGS 5.5 6 0.5

169 BILLS - - -
170 BRONCOS 10 9.5 -0.5

171 CHIEFS 0 1 1
172 CARDINALS - - -

173 49ERS 7.5 8 0.5
174 RAIDERS - - -

175 SEAHAWKS - - -
176 EAGLES 1 1 0

177 PATRIOTS 3 3.5 0.5
178 CHARGERS - - -

179 FALCONS - - -
180 PACKERS 11 12.5 1.5

Per Bettingmoves, Dec. 5 - 7:10 p.m. ET

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Sharp Moves - Week 14

December 5, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #156) Cleveland +3.5 – Maybe the biggest upset of the week to date is the fact that the Browns are going to be using QB Brian Hoyer instead of QB Johnny Manziel under center in this game against the Colts. There is plenty of motivation here for a couple Indy players to succeed, as both KR/PR Josh Cribbs and RB Trent Richardson were jettisoned from the Browns last season. Both have already said if they score a touchdown, they're jumping into the Dawg Pound. Head Coach Mike Pettine is right about one thing for our money: Hoyer gives the team the better chance of winning this game. What else gives the Browns the edge? Their corners are going to be able to match up with WR TY Hilton and the gang just like the New England Patriots did. It could be a frustrating day for QB Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense.

Opening Line: Cleveland +3.5
Current Line: Cleveland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #169) Buffalo +9.5 – For our money, the Broncos really haven't been all that impressive over the course of the last few weeks. The common thread with all of the teams which have challenged the Denver offense this year is a strong defensive line. Buffalo might not have DT Marcell Dareus in this one, but the rest of that front four is fantastic as well. In fact, this might be the best defensive line in the league. QB Peyton Manning isn't going to get himself sacked a ton, but we know that he isn't the same quarterback when he doesn't have the time to scan the field and make proper decisions. The Bills aren't great offensively, but if they can get into the 20s in this game, their defense should do enough to at least make it so a cover is reachable.

Opening Line: Buffalo +10
Current Line: Buffalo +9.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Denver

(Rotation #178) San Diego +3.5 – QB Tom Brady and the gang could never lose back-to-back games, right? That's the thought of the common bettor at this point, but it is providing a great opportunity on the super sharp Super Chargers for the second straight week. San Diego has already proven that it can beat some of the best teams in the league, and last week's win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens might have been the moment that it all came together. The Chargers have the ability to win this game SU, and quite frankly, we're a bit surprised to see New England favored by more than a field goal in a week when it flew straight from Green Bay to San Diego without going back to Massachusetts at all.

Opening Line: San Diego +3.5
Current Line: San Diego +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on New England

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Week 14 Tip Sheet

December 6, 2014

Ravens at Dolphins (-3, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Baltimore (7-5) suffered a brutal blow in the tight AFC Wild Card race with a last-minute 34-33 home loss to San Diego as 6 ½-point favorites. The Ravens led by 10 points with six minutes remaining before a late Chargers’ rally, snapping a four-game home winning streak. Baltimore allowed at least 28 points for just the second time this season, but it has put up 67 points combined in the past two weeks.
-- The Dolphins (7-5) dodged a major bullet by staving off the rival Jets on Monday night, 16-13. Miami failed to cover as 6 ½-point favorites, while allowing New York to rush for 277 yards on 49 carries. The Dolphins yielded 14 points or less on the road for the fourth time this season, while improving to 3-1 inside the AFC East.

Previous meeting: Baltimore has won each of the past four matchups with Miami, including a 26-23 triumph at Sun Life Stadium last October as 2 ½-point underdogs. Justin Tucker booted four field goals for the Ravens, while knocking down the game-winner with under two minutes remaining in regulation. Miami’s running game is much improved from last season, but it’s important to note that the Dolphins rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries.

What to watch for: The Baltimore defensive line takes a major hit with nose tackle Haloti Ngata suspended for the rest of the regular season after violating the enhanced substance policy. The Ravens are just 3-5 this season against AFC opponents, while posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record as a road underdog. The Dolphins have cashed the ‘under’ in six of the past seven games, while putting a 6-3 mark to the ‘under’ in the previous nine home contests since last season.

Steelers at Bengals (-3, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Pittsburgh’s (7-5) struggles in early kickoffs this season continued in a 35-32 home loss to a New Orleans team that entered Heinz Field on a three-game skid. The Steelers dropped to 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in 1:00 kicks, while allowing a season-high in points and five touchdown passes to Drew Brees. Pittsburgh received another big passing game at home from Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for 435 yards, but Big Ben has tossed five interceptions in the past three games following a seven-game stretch with just one pick.
-- Cincinnati (9-3-1) pulled off a three-game road sweep of New Orleans, Houston, and Tampa Bay to keep the rest of the AFC North at arms’ length. The Bengals escaped Raymond James Stadium with a 14-13 victory as six-point favorites, as Andy Dalton rushed for a touchdown and threw for another score to A.J. Green. The defense stepped up during this winning streak, allowing a total of 36 points and going ‘under’ the total in each victory.

Previous meeting: These rivals are hooking up for the first time this season, as the home squad won each game in 2013. Cincinnati took care of Pittsburgh last September, 20-10 as seven-point favorites, but the Steelers jumped out of the gate to a 21-0 advantage after one quarter in a 30-20 triumph at Heinz Field last December as 2 ½-point underdogs. Since 2010, the Steelers have won six of the previous eight meetings against the Bengals.

What to watch for: Pittsburgh has played plenty of high-scoring games of late, hitting the ‘over’ in five of the past six contests. In spite of Cincinnati’s defensive prowess recently on the road, the Bengals have cashed the ‘over’ in three of the previous four games at Paul Brown Stadium. Since 2012, the Bengals are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS at home against division opponents, as the Steelers last won in Cincinnati in Week 7 of the 2012 campaign.

Colts (-3 ½, 50) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Indianapolis (8-4) continues to clean up against subpar competition, as the Colts routed the Redskins as 7 ½-point favorites, 49-27. The Colts topped the 40-point mark for the fourth time this season, as Andrew Luck sliced up the Washington secondary for five touchdowns and 370 yards. Indianapolis improved to 5-2 at Lucas Oil Stadium, as three of its final four games are on the road.
-- The Browns (7-5) were tripped up at Buffalo, 26-10 in an important game for tie-breaker purposes in the AFC Wild Card race. Brian Hoyer was lifted in the second half in favor of rookie Johnny Manziel, as Hoyer has been intercepted five times and failed to throw a touchdown pass in the previous two games.

Previous meeting: Luck ran for a pair of scores in a 17-13 home victory over the Browns in his rookie season of 2012. Trent Richardson was limited to eight yards on eight carries against his future team, while the Colts held the ball for over 35 minutes. The Colts are making their first trip to Cleveland since 2008, when Indianapolis escaped with a 10-6 victory.

What to watch for: Indianapolis has covered four of five games on the highway, while posting an incredible 8-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite since 2012. Hoyer will get the start on Sunday after getting pulled at Buffalo. The Browns haven’t been listed as a home underdog since Week 3 against the Ravens, as Cleveland has put together a 4-1-1 ATS mark in the ‘dog role this season.

Bills at Broncos (-10, 47 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Buffalo (7-5) just won’t go away in the AFC Wild Card chase off consecutive wins over the Jets and Browns. The Bills trailed Cleveland, 3-0 at halftime, but exploded for 26 second half points to run out the Browns, 26-10 as three-point home favorites. Buffalo wasn’t sharp offensively by racking up less than 300 yards, but Dan Carpenter kicked four field goals and the defense forced three turnovers to overcome a pair of interceptions thrown by Kyle Orton.
-- The Broncos (9-3) put together their most complete effort of the season in a 29-16 rout of the Chiefs. Denver’s defense limited Kansas City to 151 yards and 11 first downs, while C.J. Anderson controlled the run game for 168 yards as the Broncos held the ball for nearly 39 minutes.

Previous meeting: The Bills blew away the Broncos in December 2011 in a 40-14 victory as 2 ½-point home underdogs. This was one of the few down spots for Denver during its Tim Tebow run, as Buffalo intercepted the Heisman Trophy winner three times, while the Bills scored three non-offensive touchdowns. Buffalo surprised Denver in its previous trip to Sports Authority Field in 2008 with a 30-23 win as six-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Buffalo has cashed the ‘under’ in four straight games, while going ‘under’ in four of five road contests. The Broncos own a solid 7-2 ATS record in their past nine opportunities as a favorite of nine points or more.

Chiefs (-1, 40) at Cardinals – 4:05 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Kansas City (7-5) looks to pair of tough divisional losses behind them, as the Chiefs were ambushed early in last Sunday’s 29-16 home defeat to the Broncos. Any chance Kansas City had at an AFC West title pretty much went out the window as the running game was limited to 41 yards, while allowing four Denver field goals of 33 yards or less.
-- Arizona (9-3) heads home following consecutive road losses at Seattle and Atlanta, scoring just 21 points combined in those two defeats. The Cardinals allowed their second-most points this season in a 29-18 defeat to the Falcons as 1 ½-point favorites, while rushing for just 35 yards on 11 carries. Arizona has failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

Previous meeting: The Chiefs destroyed the Cardinals at Arrowhead Stadium in 2010 as nine-point favorites, 31-13. Jamaal Charles picked up 88 yards rushing, while Dwayne Bowe pulled in a pair of touchdown receptions as Kansas City has won three straight over Arizona dating back to 2002.

What to watch for: The injury bug continues to hit Arizona, as running back Andre Ellington is out with a hip injury. The Cardinals should be happy to be home, winning all six games at University of Phoenix Stadium, while posting a 4-1 SU/ATS record as a home underdog since the start of last season. Kansas City has won two of three games against NFC opponents, while putting together a 6-1 SU/ATS record since the start of last season in interconference action.

Seahawks at Eagles (-1 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Seattle (8-4) is turning on the jets at the right time, winning its fifth game in six tries since a two-game skid in October. The Seahawks took care of the 49ers in their first meeting since last season’s NFC Championship, grabbing a 19-3 victory at San Francisco on Thanksgiving night. Seattle forced three turnovers, while kicking four field goals and picking up a cover as an underdog in its first try this season.
-- The Eagles (9-3) picked up their fourth victory in the past five contests, dominating the rival Cowboys on Thanksgiving, 33-10 as three-point road underdogs. Philadelphia ran all over the Dallas defense for 256 yards with 159 of those coming from LeSean McCoy. The Eagles are in cruise control inside the division with a 3-0 record, but finish the season with the final three games against NFC East foes.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks routed the dysfunctional Eagles towards the end of the 2011 season at CenturyLink Field on a Thursday night, 31-3 as three-point underdogs. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns, while the Seattle defense intercepted Vince Young (yes, he started that game) four times.

What to watch for: Seattle has won five straight games in the Eastern Time Zone since 2013, including victories this season at Carolina and Washington. The Eagles started last season losing their first four games at Lincoln Financial Field, but Philadelphia has 10 consecutive regular season contests at home.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 14

December 6, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 14 Picks (# of selections)

1) New England -3.5 (381)
2) Miami -2.5 (365)
3) Seattle +1 (365)
4) St. Louis -2.5 (338)
5) Indianapolis -3.5 (335)

Week 13 Results

1) Arizona (-2.5) - LOSS
2) N.Y. Giants (-2.5) - LOSS
3) Baltimore (-5.5) - LOSS
4) Cincinnati (-3.5) - LOSS
5) Buffalo (-2.5) - WIN

Week 12 Results

1) Seattle (-6.5) - WIN
2) Dallas (-3.5) - LOSS
3) New England (-7) - WIN
4) N.Y. Jets (+4.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (+3.5) - WIN

Week 11 Results

1) New England (+3) - WIN
2) Kansas City (-1.5) - WIN
3) Green Bay (-6) - WIN
4) Cleveland (-3) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 10 Results

1) Detroit (-2.5) - WIN
2) Green Bay (-7) - WIN
3) New Orleans (-5) - LOSS
4) Kansas City (-2) - WIN
5) N.Y. Jets (+5) - WIN

Week 9 Results

1) Arizona (+3.5) - WIN
2) San Diego (+1.5) - LOSS
3) Philadelphia (-2) - WIN
4) New England (+3) - WIN
5) Baltimore (-1) - LOSS

Week 8 Results

1) Indianapolis (-3) - LOSS
2) Kansas City (-6.5) - WIN
3) Houston (-2) - WIN
4) Baltimore (+1) - LOSS
5) New Orleans (-1.5) - WIN

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SUPERCONTEST WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%
5 2-3 15-10 60%
6 2-3 17-13 57%
7 3-2 20-15 57%
8 3-2 23-17 58%
9 3-2 26-19 57%
10 4-1 30-20 60%
11 3-2 33-22 60%
12 3-2 36-24 60%
13 1-4 37-28 57%
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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Gridiron Angles - Week 14

December 6, 2014

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Rams are 10-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since October 2006 after a game where they intercepted at least three passes.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-10-1 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since October 31, 2011 when the total is over 40 after they allowed more points than expected for at least two straight games.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-12-1 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since November 2010 in the first 14 weeks of the season with at least four days rest after Calvin Johnson had 117-317 receiving yards last game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 12-0 ATS after a road game in which no player had double-digit rushing attempts.

NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- Temple is 10-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 17, 2007 when the total is between 41 and 66 following a game where they scored less than 17 points and did not fail to cover by more than 5 points.

NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- UCONN is 0-10 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since September 22, 2012 when they are not TD+ dogs after scoring 7-27 points last game.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Vikings are 13-0 OU (8.5 ppg) since 2003 in the first 15 weeks of the season after a game where they threw no more than 21 passes.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that scored at least 23.5 points more than expected last game are 77-56-4 ATS. Active on St. Louis.

NCAA O/U TREND:

-- Louisiana Tech is 9-0 OU (21.8 ppg) since 2006 when they scored at least 50 points last game and have less than 127 points combined in their last two games.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams coming off a game that went under by at least 34 points are 44-57-3 OU. Active on Cincinnati and Temple.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Ravens (7-5) @ Dolphins (7-5)-- Ravens’ DT Haloti Ngata is suspended for four games for violating NFL’s performance enhancing substances policy; very, very bad news for the Baltimore defense. Miami won last two home games, allowing no TDs on 22 drives; three of their last four games were decided by 4 or less points. Baltimore won last four series games, with three of those four played here; Ravens won last three visits here. Miami's last two series wins were both in OT. Baltimore allowed 61 points in last two games; they've allowed 8+ ypa in four of last five games, 14 first downs via penalty in last four. Short week for Fish, who allowed 277 rushing yards to 2-10 Jets Monday night; they covered four of last five games when favored. Ravens ran ball for 163.7 ypg last three weeks, are 3-3 on road, 1-1 as road dogs. Miami won special teams in nine of last ten games. Four of last five Raven games went over total; five of last six Miami games stayed under.

Steelers (7-5) @ Bengals (8-3-1)—Cincy has 1.5-game lead in AFC North after escaping 14-13 in Tampa last week; they’ve won last three games (all on road), allowing 12 ppg, allowing two TDs on last 30 drives (10 3/outs on last 21 drives). Steelers are -6 in turnovers last three games; they allowed 27.1 ppg in last seven, are 3-3 on road, beating Panthers, Titans, Jags (combined 7-28-1 record). Bengals lost six of last eight games with Steelers, with LY’s 20-10 win here their first home win over Pitt in last four years. Roethlisberger banged his hand on a helmet last week, put up big numbers despite that, but hand is wounded. Underdogs covered five of seven AFC North divisional games. Five of last six Steeler games went over total; last four Bengal games stayed under.

Colts (8-4) @ Browns (7-5)—Indy is dependable 7-2-1 as road favorite under Pagano, 3-1 this year, winning by 27-10-16 points, losing at Denver/Pittsburgh. Colts allowed 30+ points in all four losses this year; they’re 8-2 since an 0-2 start- four of their five road games were on grass. Browns lost two of last three games; ; they scored 6-7-10 points in last three losses. Cleveland is 4-2 at home; they scored 22+ points in all seven wins, a figure Indy gave up in four of last five games. Hoyer threw six picks in last three games, was yanked in Buffalo; starter for this week is unnamed at I type this. Colts won six of last seven series games, with average total of 25.2 in last five. Four of last five Indy games went over total; seven of last eight Cleveland games stayed under.

Texans (6-6) @ Jaguars (2-10)—Jax is 3-9-1 as home underdog under Bradley, 2-3 this year, losing by 27-8-14 points, with upset wins over Browns/Giants; they were down 21-3 at half to 3-9 Giants last week, scored two defensive TDs to pull game out, 25-24. Jags are 2-10 vs spread in game after their last 12 wins. Houston got swept 13-6/27-0 by Jaguars LY during their 2-14 nightmare; they had won previous five series games. Texans are 3-3 on road this year; they were favored in half those games, are 2-1 as road favorites this year, 10-8-1 in that role since ’10. Fitzpatrick threw for six TDs last week in his return to starting lineup; Jaguars are still competing, while Titans might not be. Favorites covered first six AFC South divisional games this year (3-0 on road). Five of last seven Texan games, three of last four Jax games went over total.

Giants (3-9) @ Titans (2-10)—Giants lost last seven games, outscored 74-13 in second half of last four; Titans lost last six. Giants led last two games by 10+ at the half, still lost. Tennessee was missing three starters on OL, gave up six TD passes to Fitzpatrick; they’ve allowed 88 points in last two games, 11 TDs on last 33 drives, are 1-4 at home, with only win 16-14 over 2-10 Jaguar team that upset Giants last week. Big Blue led 21-3 at half in Jax’ville LW before offense yielded two defensive scores in catastrophic loss. Six of last ten series games were decided by 4 or less points. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 7-9 vs spread. AFC South home teams are 8-10, 3-4 when dogs. Five of last six Giant games, four of last five Titan games went over total.

Panthers (3-8-1) @ Saints (5-7)—Road team won last five Saint games after losing first seven; Saints (-3) won 28-10 at Carolina in Week 9 Thursday game, holding Carolina to 231 TY, 3.8 ypa in game that was 14-nil at half. NO lost last three home games; they’re 2-4 as HFs this year, 5-8-1 vs spread in game following last 14 wins. Saints scored 35 at Pittsburgh last week without one target to star TE Graham. Carolina is 1-8-1 in last ten games, 2-4 as road dogs, losing last three away games by combined score of 114-51 (38-17 average)- they’ve got only one takeaway in last three games (-7). Panthers lost four of last five visits to Bourbon Street, with three of four losses by 10+ points. Road team covered six of first eight NFC South divisional games this season (HFs 1-3).

Buccaneers (2-10) @ Lions (8-4)—You’d think Lions would have edge with 10-day post-Thanksgiving break, but they’ve lost this game the last five years. Not sure what to make of NFL team (Bucs) driving for winning score last week but having 12 men on field for more than one play; how is that not noticed? Tampa allowed 93 points in losing its two games on carpet (1-1 vs spread) this season; they’re 4-2 as road underdogs, with only road loss by more than 8 points Thursday debacle in Atlanta in Week 3. Visitor won last four series games, with six of last nine in series decided by 4 or less points. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 7-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 6-8. 10 of last 11 Detroit games, last six Tampa Bay games stayed under total.

Rams (5-7) @ Redskins (3-9)-- Washington gave Rams two #1 picks plus more for right to draft RGIII, now he's on bench; Redskins lost last four games (1-3 vs spread), are 2-3 at home, scoring 14.3 ppg in last four (3-5 as dog, 0-1 at home). Four of Redskins' last six games were decided by 4 or less points. Rams are favored for third time this season; they're 2-4 on road, with wins by total of five points. This is first time Rams have been road favorite since 2010. St Louis won four of last six series games; this is its first visit to Maryland since '09. Rams are +7 in turnovers last three games, after being -5 in first nine. Redskin DC Haslett was once DC/interim coach of Rams. Three of last four Ram games went over total; last three Redskin home games stayed under.

Jets (2-10) @ Vikings (5-7)-- Not big fan of losing teams week after they play Monday night game. Minnesota covered five of last six games, winning two of last three at home; they're first team since '90 to block two punts for TDs in same game. Travel on short week for Jets after 16-13 loss Monday, when they ran for 277 yards but threw for only 49; Gang Green scored one TD on 20 drives in two post-bye games; they're 2-3 on road, covering one of last four- Smith is obviously not the answer at QB. Minnesota is 2-0 as a favorite this season. Jets won eight of nine series games, with six of last seven losses by 7+ points; they've won three of four visits here, with last visit in '06. Three of last four Jet games, five of last seven Viking games stayed under total.

Bills (7-5) @ Broncos (9-3)—Ex-Bronco QB Orton returns with playoff contending Bills, who allowed one TD on 23 drives (12 3/outs) last two games; they’re 3-2 SU on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 6-13 points, losing 22-9 on short week at Miami- both their road losses (and win at Chicago) came on grass fields. Denver ran ball for 201/214 yards in last two games- they ran ball for 36-43-28 yards in three losses, so they’re emphasizing it more. Broncos are 15-6 as home favorites in Manning era, 3-3 this year, with three wins by 14+ points; they’re 18-34 on third down last two games. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 6-5 on road. AFC home favorites are 8-4. Seven of last nine Denver games went over total; five of last six Buffalo games stayed under.

Chiefs (7-5) @ Cardinals (9-3)— KC lost last two games after 7-1 run that followed 0-2 start; they’re 8-42 on third down in last four games- five of opponents’ last eight TDs came on drives of 60 or less yards. Arizona lost last two games after 9-1 start, running ball 31 times for 99 yards (3.2/carry); they’re 4-19 on third down last two games, losing field position by 18/16 yards. Ellington’s injury leaves them without dynamic threat out of backfield. Cardinals are 6-0 at home, allowing two TDs on 23 drives in last two. AFC West non-divisional road dogs are 8-4 vs spread; NFC West favorites are 12-9, 6-7 at home. Home side won six of last eight series games; KC won two of three visits here, are 8-2-1 in last 11 series games. Six of last eight KC games, five of last seven Redbird games stayed under total.

49ers (7-5) @ Raiders (1-11)—49ers won last three games in Bay Area rivalry by 3-14-8 points; this is their first visit here in 12 years. Niners scored 17 or less points in five of last six as they struggle in red zone (two TDs, five FGs on last 8 red zone drives). SF is 3-1 as road favorites this year, winning away games by 11-14-3-6 points, with losses in Arizona/Denver. Oakland went in tank last week, a 52-0 debacle in St Louis, but Raiders are 3-2 vs spread in last five games, 2-3 as home underdogs, losing games in Coliseum by 16-3-11-24 points, with an upset of Chiefs. 49ers have only four offensive TDs in last three games, turning ball over eight times on last 30 drives. NFC West non-divisional road favorites are 6-2 vs spread. Four of last five Niner games stayed under total; four of last five Oakland games went over.

Seahawks (8-4) @ Philadelphia (8-4)—Sanchez played 16 games for Pete Carroll at USC, then left school early against his coach’s advice. Eagles are 9-3 under Kelly in games where spread was 3 or less points, 4-1 this year; Seattle is 14-13-3 in such games under Carroll, 1-1 this year. Philly won four of last five games, scoring 31+ in all four wins; they’re 6-0 at home, with four wins by 17+ points. Seattle won five of last six games after a 3-3 start; they didn’t allow TD in last two weeks vs division rivals, with four takeaways, seven 3/outs on 18 drives- their rematch with 49ers is at home next week. Home side lost six of last seven series games, with Seattle winning three of last four meetings- this is their first trip to Philly since ’07. Four of last five Eagle games went over the total.

Patriots (9-3) @ Chargers (8-4)—Pats flew from Green Bay to west coast, practiced in warm weather all week; they’ve won five of last six games with San Diego, winning two of last three visits here. NE had 7-game win streak snapped by Pack in Lambeau last week; Pats allowed 33-41-26 points in three losses- they’re 9-0 when allowing less than 26. Chargers won three close games since their bye, rallying from down 10 late to win 34-33 at Baltimore last week; Bolts have only four takeaways in last six games (-8) and three of them came in same game, 27-24 win over Rams in last home game. San Diego is 11-5 vs spread on Sunday Night Football. Patriots are 15-8 vs spread in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less points, 5-2 this year. San Diego is 4-4-1 in such games under McCoy. Last two Patriot games stayed under total, after previous seven went over.

Falcons (5-7) @ Packers (9-3)—Pack won last four games, last two by total of eight points; they haven’t turned ball over at all in last three games (+5, +15 for season). Falcons won three of last four games, covering last four games away from home- they’re 3-3 as underdogs. Since ’09, Atlanta is 3-0 as a double digit underdog. Pack is 12-9 under McCarthy when laying double digits. Green Bay won last three series games by 27-1-11 points, nipping Atlanta 22-21 here LY; Falcons are 3-2 in last five visits to Green Bay. Pack won last four games overall (3-1 vs spread); they’ve outscored last five visitors to Lambeau 151-23 in first half of last five home games. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 7-5. Five of last seven Falcon games stayed under total; seven of last nine Packer games went over.

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NFL

Sunday, December 7

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Sunday Night Football: Patriots at Chargers
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New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (+3.5, 51)

Their seven-game winning streak now history, the New England Patriots will look to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first time since September 2012 when they visit the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. The Patriots were unable to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in last week's 26-21 road loss but remain even with Denver and hold the tiebreaker for the top seed in the AFC. Tom Brady threw for 245 yards against the Packers - his lowest total since Week 4 - but he is 5-0 lifetime versus San Diego.

The Chargers have rebounded from a three-game skid to rip off three wins in a row, including last week's 34-33 stunner at Baltimore in which Philip Rivers threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final 3:40 to erase a 10-point deficit. No teams are better over the final quarter of the season than New England and San Diego, who are each an NFL-best 17-3 over the last four games of the season since 2009. "You get down to the home stretch and it just has a little different feel to it," Rivers said. "And you throw in the fact that we will play one of the best teams ever, as far as tradition-wise, what this franchise has done over the last 15 years or so."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 3-point road faves and have moved to -3.5. The total opened 50.5 and is up a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - QB Tom Brady (Probable, ankle), RB Shane Vereen (Questionable, ankle), CB Kyle Arrington (Questionable, ankle), G Dan Connolly (Questionable, ankle), WR Julian Edelman (Questionable, thigh), LB Dont'a Hightower (Questionable, shoulder), WR Brandon LaFell (Questionable, shoulder). Chargers - LB Andrew Gachkar (Probable, knee), QB Philip Rivers (Probable, chest), DE Corey Liuget (Probable, knee), LB Donald Butler (Questionable, quad), T D.J. Fluker (Questionable, concussion), DT Ryan Carrethers (Out, elbow).

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-8.0) + Chargers (-2.75) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers +2.25

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 3 mph.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U): New England averaged 39.6 points during its winning streak but was forced to abandon the running game and play catch-up against the Packers, who held the ball for 36 1/2 minutes. While Brady has thrown 28 touchdowns passes versus only six interceptions, the Patriots are only 3-3 on the road and the two-time Super Bowl MVP has been limited to 257 yards or less in five of those games. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 32 receptions and five touchdowns over the past five games and Brandon LaFell caught a pair of scoring passes last week, but New England must find a way to pressure Rivers. The Patriots were unable to generate any pass rush against Rodgers, who threw for 282 yards in the first half alone as Green Bay racked up 478 yards of total offense.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U): San Diego's playoff hopes appeared to take a major hit following a 37-0 drubbing in Miami entering its bye week, but it has bounced back with three straight narrow victories to move within one game of the first-place Broncos in the AFC West. Rivers, who leads the AFC in completion percentage at 69.1, had three TD passes and threw for a season-high 383 yards in the improbable victory over the Ravens. Wideout Keenan Allen, who has struggled to maintain consistency following a superb rookie season, had a pair of touchdown catches among his career-high 11 receptions while going over 100 yards for the second straight week. Ryan Mathews has rushed for 215 yards and two TDs since returning from injury but the defense has permitted 57 points in the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Diego.
* Patriots are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on grass.
* Chargers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots last five games in December.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 66 percent of bettors are on the Pats

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NFL

Sunday, December 7


Threat of ice pellets in Minnesota Sunday

According to forecasts, there is a 60 percent possibility of ice pellets during the game between the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings Sunday. As the game progresses, those ice pellets are expected to turn into snow.

Temperatures at TCF Bank Stadium are expected to hover around the low-30s and wind is expected to blow across the field at around 13 mph during the game.

Currently, the Vikings are 5.5-point home favorites and oddsmakers have the total at 40.


Windy day predicted as Browns host Colts

Whomever has the ball on offense and is headed toward the southwest endzone at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland will be aided by some strong wind. Forecasts are calling for winds blowing toward that SW endzone at around 13 mph during Sunday's game between the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are 3.5-point home dogs and the total is 50 - the second highest on Sunday's board behind only the 52 in the Patriots-Chargers matchup


Steelers trending Over ahead of matchup with Bengals

The Over is 5-1 in the Pittsburgh Steelers' last six games.

Big Ben and company travel to Cincinnati for a date with the Bengals in Week 14 NFL action Sunday.

Books currently have Cincy as 3-point home faves for the contest. The total is sitting at 47.


Rams are having problems covering after a SU win

The St. Louis Rams are just 1-4 against the spread following a straight-up win.

That's a trend that won't appeal to Rams backers in the wake of the team's 52-0 blowout against the Oakland Raiders in Week 13.

Washington welcomes the Rams to town Sunday. The 'Skins are presently +3 home dogs with an O/U of 44.


Lynch feasting on NFC East opposition

In his last 10 games versus opponents from the NFC East, Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has ran for 100-plus yards and at least one touchdown nine times.

Lynch has put up some of his best career stats against the NFC East, rushing for 1,223 yards on 5.05 per attempt and 94.1 yards per game - easily his best number.

In those 10 games, the Seahawks have gone an impressive 8-2 against the spread. They've played the NFC East three times already this season and are 2-1 both straight up and against the spread. The Seahawks are presently 1-point underdogs at the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 44.5)

Rams’ pass rush vs. Redskins’ poor protection

You can’t blame Robert Griffin III for being pissed at his teammates. In his two games back before getting benched for Colt McCoy, RG3 was sacked 11 times in losses to Tampa Bay and San Francisco. And if things don’t tighten up on the Redskins offensive line, McCoy could have some serious beef with his teammates as well.

McCoy was sacked six times in last week’s defeat to Indianapolis – a grand total of 17 sacks allowed in three games. Washington has given up 39 sacks on the year which means almost 44 percent of those QB kills have come in that three-game span.

The Redskins face the Rams at the worst possible time. St. Louis, which has its vaunted pass rush rolling after a slow start to the season, just returned star DE Chris Long from injury last week and it didn’t take him any time to find his form, recording a sack and fumble recovery. Fellow DE Robert Quinn had three sacks in the blowout win against Oakland and sits 13th in the NFL with nine on the season, despite going sack-less through the first five games.


Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10)

Bills’ WR Sammy Watkins vs. Broncos’ thin Mile-High air

Hitting the rookie wall is even harder when you’re nursing a hip injury. And it’s doubly hard when you’re trying to play through all that in the altitude of Sports Authority Field, high up in the Rocky Mountains. The Bills head to Denver for a Sunday showdown with the Broncos, knowing they need their star rookie to play at the same pace he was earlier in the year.

Watkins returned to practice this week and has told the media that he needs to “get back in the groove”. Easier said than done. Opponents aren’t getting caught by surprise against Watkins any more, with plenty of tape on the dynamic wideout, and Buffalo will undoubtedly turn to the passing game to keep pace with Denver’s offense.

Watkins has been QB Kyle Orton’s favorite target since he took over the starting gig. But outside of two big days versus Detroit and Minnesota, Watkins has had more than three catches only once – a 4-for-10 day for just 27 yards against Kansas City – with Orton under center. Buffalo gets to Denver Friday, hoping to get used to the thin air before Sunday’s game. But Watkins tank could already be on empty.


Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 48)

Seahawks’ penalty problems vs. Eagles’ flag-flying offense

If the defending Super Bowl champs have a vice, it’s that they don’t know how to play by the rules. Seattle is tied for the most penalized team in the NFL, forcing 102 flags to fly heading into Week 14. This is nothing new for the Seahawks, who topped the league with 152 infractions last season. However, the big cause for concern is the split between penalties given and penalties taken. Seattle has only drawn 51 flags so far – dead last in the NFL.

Instead of preaching fair play to his players, head coach Pete Carroll is crying foul to the NFL and pointing out the discrepancy in the penalty numbers. “We’re not going to change the way we play,” Carroll told the media following a 14-flag day that equaled 105 yards against versus San Francisco last week – the most penalties Seattle has committed in Carroll’s five years with the team.

The Seahawks can’t afford to just hand over extra yards to the Eagles' up-tempo offense Sunday. Philadelphia is not only hitting its stride offensively – averaging 451.7 yards over the last three games – but has drawn the fifth most penalties (91) in the league, equaling 821 free yards. With the Eagles no-huddle attack taking its toll, expect a tired Seattle stop unit to start clutching and grabbing as the game wears on.


New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (+3.5, 50.5)

Patriots’ tight end troubles vs. Chargers TE Antonio Gates

It seems like every couple weeks we feature a team getting trounced by tight ends. Welcome to the evolution of the NFL. And if you were to look at the progression of tight ends over the past 20 years – like one of those homo-sapien charts that go from neanderthal to modern man – there would be a huge jump in the chain when you got to Antonio Gates.

The Chargers veteran TE is still among the biggest end zone threats in the league, reeling in a team-high nine touchdowns which ranks second among tight ends, tied with Jimmy Graham and his counterpart Sunday night, Rob Gronkowski. Gates isn’t just a red-zone target. He’s coming off a 83-yard performance in the win over Baltimore and has 574 yards receiving on the year.

The Patriots love to exploit teams with their talented tight end but haven’t fared well when opponents turn the tables. New England has given up five touchdowns, 786 yards and has failed to intercept a pass in the 93 times foes have thrown to their tight ends. The Pats watched Green Bay TE Richard Rodgers score last week and were scorched for 144 yards by Colts TE Coby Fleener three weeks ago. With the Bolts’ deep threats keeping the secondary busy, Gates could be in for a big game with linebackers in coverage.

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Where the action is: Sunday's biggest Week 14 NFL line moves

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans - Open: Pick, Move: -1, Move: +1

It's been an embarrassing season for both of these franchises who could very well find themselves in the bottom of their respective divisions depending on some of Sunday's outcomes. The Giants are mired in an ugly seven-game losing skid (1-6 against the spread), while the Titans have dropped their previous six games (1-5 ATS).

"We opened at a PK and this one has crossed over both sides," Lester tells Covers. "Initially it went to Titans -1 and most of our sharp money is on Tennessee. The public is pretty split. I could see this closing with Giants as short chalk."


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +3.5, Move: +4, Move: +6

The Texans head in eager to make a push for a wild-card spot at the very least. They are currently two games back of the Indianapolis Colts and one game back of a wild-card position. Meanwhile, it's been another long season in Jacksonville, but the Jags are coming in off a 25-24 victory over the aforementioned Giants.

"We moved it from +3.5 to +4.5 within the first 24 hours and have been forced to steadily increase as the week’s drawn on," said Lester. "Everyone is on the Texans as they realize Jacksonville’s "upset" last week was a little bit of fool’s gold. I expect some buyback on Jags if it gets any higher."


Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals - Open: Pick, Move: -2, Move: +1

Glendale will be the site as a pair of slumping teams meet up at the University of Phoenix Stadium in late-afternoon action. Both of these teams have dropped their last two games SU and ATS and are rapidly losing a hold of playoff positioning. Sunday will not end well for one of these floundering franchises.

"We’ve had some big swings here, opened at PK, got as high as Cards -2 and now we’re dealing Cards +1," states Lester. "The wiseguys haven’t been too interested in this one. I think it closes where we opened, and my opinion is that the home team gets it done."


San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders - Open: +7, Move: +8.5

The Battle of the Bay will have a new chapter written as the two Northern California teams meet for the first time since 2010. The Niners have won three-straight meetings (2-1 ATS) since 2002 and will be playing for their playoff lives Sunday, but will be dealing with some off the field news involving their head coach.

"There is plenty of drama for this one amid the Harbaugh coaching speculation," Lester points out. "We’ve been fairly one-sided with Niners action after opening at +7. I think this could creep up to +9 by kickoff."


New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers - Open: +3, +3.5

Something will have to give in Sunday's marquee matchup as Patriots quarterback Tom Brady owns a 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS) versus Philip Rivers in his career, but the latter owns an incredible 30-6 SU record in the month of December. The Chargers have been hot and cold this season, but followed up a three-game losing streak with a three-game winning streak. They haven't been kind to bettors of late, however, as they've covered the spread just once in their last seven games.

"Majority backing the road chalk, and we moved from +3 on the open to +3.5 very quickly after taking a smart bet on New England," Lester said. "This could reach +4, but at that number I would expect some players to side with San Diego. Everyone is grabbing the over for this primetime affair."

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SNF - Patriots at Chargers

December 5, 2014


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -3.5, Total: 51

The Patriots look to get back in the win column with a road victory against the Chargers on Sunday night.

New England was unable to defeat the Packers in Green Bay last week, losing 26-21 as a 3-point underdog. They team will now travel across the country and take on a Chargers club that has won three straight games (1-2 ATS), including a 34-33 win as a 6.5-point underdog in Baltimore on Sunday.

New England has dominated this head-to-head series, going 9-3 SU (8-4 ATS) versus San Diego since 1992. The Patriots even won their most recent road meeting in this series back in 2010, prevailing 23-20 as 3-point underdogs. The Chargers have seemingly found their groove offensively, scoring 71 points over their past two games after tallying 13 total points in their two previous games.

New England is 6-0 ATS after an SU loss over the past two seasons and 18-7 ATS in road games after a defeat by six or less points since 1992. The Chargers are, however, 18-7 ATS in home games after having won three out of their previous four games since 1992.

While the Patriots' biggest injury is seldom-used WR Aaron Dobson (IR, hamstring), the Chargers could be missing three defensive players in DE Corey Liuget (knee), LB Andrew Gachkar (knee) and DT Ryan Carrethers (elbow).

The Patriots went into Green Bay last week and were unable to pick up what would have been a major statement victory. QB Tom Brady (3,243 pass yards, 28 TD, 6 INT) played well in the game, throwing for 245 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He should be able to find some success against a Chargers defense that gave up 33 points and 376 passing yards to the Ravens a week ago.

One guy that Brady will need to get going against this Chargers defense is TE Rob Gronkowski (65 rec, 910 yards, 9 TD). Gronkowski had seven receptions for 98 yards against the Packers and he’ll need to be on top of his game in this one.

WR Brandon LaFell (53 rec, 712 yards, 7 TD) was excellent in the loss to the Packers, catching five passes for 38 yards and two touchdowns. LaFell’s emergence has taken a lot of pressure off Brady and he’ll certainly see plenty of targets against a defense that has not looked good against Shaun Hill and Joe Flacco over the past two weeks.

This Patriots secondary didn’t pick Aaron Rodgers off last week, but they made things tough on him at times. They’ll need to make Chargers QB Philip Rivers more uncomfortable in the pocket or they could have trouble in this game.

Rivers (3,218 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT) threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns with just one interception while leading his team to a comeback victory in Baltimore last week. San Diego outscored the Ravens 21-10 in the fourth quarter to win the game, thanks largely to Philip Rivers’ performance. He’ll need to make plenty of adjustments at the line to keep the Patriots off guard. His ability to spread the ball around should somewhat neutralize the lockdown effect of Patriots CB Darrelle Revis (2 INT).

The player most likely to see a lot of Revis is top WR Keenan Allen (72 rec, 762 yards, 4 TD), who has been on a tear recently. Allen has now gone over 100 yards two weeks in a row, including an 11-reception, 121-yard and 2-TD performance against the Ravens last week. Allen will need to be on his game in this one, as it won’t be easy to shake Revis when he’s lined up across from him.

RB Ryan Mathews (284 rush yards, 3 TD) could be in for a big night, as the Patriots have struggled to stop inside runners this season.

San Diego will have no chance of winning in this one if its defense can’t step it up. The Chargers have done poorly against some mediocre offenses in recent weeks, and now need to stop a potent Patriots team.

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Sunday's Top Action

December 5, 2014


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cincinnati -3, Total: 47

The Steelers face a must-win situation when they visit the surging Bengals on Sunday.

While Pittsburgh lost 35-32 at home against the Saints last week, Cincinnati picked up its third straight victory (2-1 ATS) in a 14-13 win at Tampa Bay. These teams have split wins SU and ATS in their last four meetings, but the Steelers are 18-5 SU (17-6 ATS) on the road in this series since 1992. Pittsburgh also won 30-20 as 2-point home underdogs in the most recent matchup between these two rivals on Dec. 15, 2013.

Over the past two seasons, the Steelers are 7-0 ATS after having lost two of their past three games. The Bengals, however, are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive Unders in the past two seasons, and 11-3 ATS in home games during that time. The Bengals have the 25th-ranked rushing defense in football and will now need to slow down RB Le’Veon Bell, who has totaled over 200 yards from scrimmage in each of the Steelers’ past two games. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with an injured hand, but he’ll be ready to play on Sunday.

LBs James Harrison (knee) and Jarvis Jones (wrist) are also considered probable, while LB Ryan Shazier (ankle), CB Cortez Allen (thumb), DT Steve McLendon and OT Marcus Gilbert (ankle) are all questionable. For Cincinnati, four defensive players are listed as questionable -- CB Adam Jones (concussion), DT Domata Peko (elbow) and DEs Robert Geathers (hip) and Margus Hunt (ankle) -- as are WR James Wright (knee) and G Mike Pollak (knee).

The Steelers have lost two of their past three games and it will now be very difficult for them to get into the playoffs if they are to lose against the Bengals on Sunday. QB Ben Roethlisberger (3,705 yards, 26 TD, 8 INT) comes into this game after throwing for 435 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in a loss to the Saints. One of those touchdown passes was a meaningless throw to WR Antonio Brown (96 rec, 1,258 yards, 11 TD) which cut the deficit to three points as time expired. Brown finished with eight catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns in the game.

If these two are not at their best against the Bengals, Pittsburgh could choose to lean heavily on RB Le’Veon Bell (1,046 rush yards, 3 TD). Bell was dominant against the Saints, rushing for 95 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, while also catching eight passes for 159 yards. He is on a tear recently and should be able to keep it up against this poor Bengals rushing defense.

Pittsburgh will, however, need to patch its defense up. The Steelers allowed five touchdowns through the air last game and 143 yards on the ground against a Saints team that was struggling on offense heading into their matchup.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Bengals were able to pick up a big victory over the Buccaneers last week behind some solid play by their defense. Cincinnati held the Bucs to just 2-of-11 on third-down conversions and also allowed just 75 rushing yards in the game. They'll need to continue to focus on stopping the run as they’ve struggled to do so this season, and now face one of the premiere running backs in the NFL.

QB Andy Dalton (2,589 pass yards, 13 TD, 13 INT) really struggled against the Bucs, throwing for just 176 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. He has not lived up to the expectations the team had for him when they gave him a massive contract extension this summer, but he could win some people over by finishing the season strong and guiding this team to an elusive playoff win. He’ll have a golden opportunity to get back on track against a Steelers defense that was picked apart a week ago.

Top WR A.J. Green (45 rec, 686 yards, 5 TD) will need to be on his game in order to help Dalton in this one. He has caught a touchdown pass in two of the past three, and four of the past six games he’s played in.

RBs Giovani Bernard (540 rush yards, 5 TD) and Jeremy Hill (683 rush yards, 6 TD) combined to rush for 89 yards last week. This duo will need to be more effective to take the pressure off the erratic Dalton.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-5) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -1, Total: 40

Two teams looking to end their two-game losing streaks clash on Sunday when the Cardinals host the Chiefs.

Kansas City lost to the Broncos 29-16 as a 1-point home underdog last week and Arizona was no better, losing 29-18 as a 1-point favorite in Atlanta. Both teams have lost and failed to cover in each of the past two games. This matchup has all the makings of a slugfest, as these teams feature excellent defenses and average offenses at best. Both of these teams are allowing just 18.7 PPG to their opponents, which is good for a tie as the fourth-best scoring defenses in the league.

Kansas City is 7-0 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders this season and 26-10 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons and 22-9 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their previous game since 1992.

Since RB Andre Ellington (hip) will not play in this game, the Cardinals’ offensive options will be severely limited.

The Chiefs hosted the Broncos in a huge division matchup last week, but they were unable to stop the high-powered Denver offense. Kansas City allowed RB C.J. Anderson to run all over them in that game, giving up 168 rushing yards to the Broncos’ new playmaker out of the backfield. The Chiefs have the league’s best passing defense though, so it will be really tough for the Cardinals to score points in this one. They’ll need to be better defending the run going forward, but they could get some help from the Cardinals with Andre Ellington (660 yards, 3 TD) sitting out. K.C. will also be up against Drew Stanton, who isn’t capable of beating them through the air.

RB Jamaal Charles (807 rush yards, 8 TD) was ineffective against the Broncos due to the Chiefs falling behind early. He rushed just 10 times for 35 yards and will need to be more involved against the Cardinals. QB Alex Smith (2,364 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) is a good game manager, but he is not capable of winning the Chiefs games, so this team will need to feed Charles the ball early and often.

Arizona's offense did not show up to play against the Falcons last week and could be in for an even tougher outing on Sunday against a dominant Chiefs defense. The Cardinals’ lone offensive touchdown came on a garbage-time pass from WR Drew Stanton (1,363 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT) to RB Stepfan Taylor (83 rush yards, 1 TD), who will start in place of Ellington in this game.

Stanton threw for 294 yards in the game with one touchdown and two interceptions. He was wildly inaccurate, completing just 24-of-39 pass attempts and he’ll need to make way more high percentage passes against the top passing defense in the league. Teams will not be stacking eight men in the box with Ellington not playing, so he could struggle even more going forward.

RB Marion Grice (29 yards, 1 TD) will also be a factor for the Cardinals, as he will likely split carries with Taylor. Grice caught three passes for 24 yards against the Falcons, but he lacks the explosiveness that Ellington brings to this offense. Arizona still has one of the better rush defenses in the league, allowing just 89.3 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL). The Cardinals will need to be ready to stop Jamaal Charles on Sunday, or this one could get out of hand rather quickly.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-4) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Philadelphia -1, Total: 48

Two of the NFC’s hottest teams clash on Sunday when the Seahawks head east to take on the Eagles.

Seattle won 19-3 as 1-point underdogs in San Francisco last week to give the club five wins in the past six games (3-3 ATS). Philadelphia won for the fourth time in five games (SU and ATS), by defeating the Cowboys 33-10 in Dallas. Since 1992, the Seahawks have won-and-covered in all of their trips to Philadelphia, but the teams have split wins SU and ATS in their past two meetings in Seattle.

Eagles QB Mark Sanchez completed 20-of-29 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys and he added one score on the ground as well. He will now be facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed just six points total over the past two weeks. Since 1992, the Eagles are 40-23 ATS in home games after having won four or five out of their previous six games. They are, however, up against a Seattle team that is 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons and 6-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive Unders over the past two years.

There are no significant injuries to offensive skill players for either team, but the Seahawks could be without C Max Unger (knee) and CB Jeremy Lane (groin).

The Seahawks have been playing extremely well recently and are coming off a big victory over the 49ers on Thanksgiving. QB Russell Wilson (2,466 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) threw for 236 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in the victory and he also added 35 yards rushing against a talented 49ers defense. He should be able to make a ton of plays against a Philly defense that is prone to giving up big chunks of yards.

The Eagles are allowing 258.6 passing yards per game this season (26th in NFL), and Wilson will definitely look to pick apart their secondary while creating more space for RB Marshawn Lynch (956 rush yards, 9 TD) to operate. Lynch rushed for 104 yards on 20 carries against a 49ers defense that ranks eighth in the league in rushing defense. He’ll need to have a big game against the Eagles if the Seahawks are going to pick up a win on the road against some of their biggest competition for seeding in the NFC.

This Seattle defense should be locked and loaded for this one, as they are ranked in the top five in the league in both passing and rushing defense.

The Eagles are playing excellent football as of late and part of that is due to the resurgence of LeSean McCoy (1,018 yards, 4 TD). After a slow start to the season, McCoy has really gotten himself going as of late. He’s now rushed for over 130 yards and a touchdown in each of the past two weeks. He’ll really need to earn his yards this week though, as the Seahawks are going to be more than prepared to slow down the Eagles’ superstar.

QB Mark Sanchez (1,404 pass yards, 8 TD, 6 INT) will also need to be on top of his game in this one. Sanchez was excellent against the Cowboys, going wherever he wanted whenever he wanted. This Seahawks defense is a whole other animal though, and Sanchez can’t afford to make the type of mistakes that have plagued him throughout his career.

WR Jordan Matthews (54 rec, 686 yards, 7 TD) has now caught five touchdowns over the past five games. He will be on the Seahawks’ radar heading into this game, but he has excellent chemistry with Sanchez and should be able to find some space in this one.

The Eagles will need to be disciplined on defense, as it’s very difficult to deal with Russell Wilson both through the air and on the ground. If they can’t keep him in the pocket, he’s going to really make them pay.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Browns +3.5-- Not often both sides in same game make the top six.

5) Colts, -3.5-- If Hoyer struggles early will we see Manziel?

4) Rams, -2.5-- Not a lot of faith in the Redskins here.

3) Dolphins, -3.5-- Ngata getting suspended threw supporr to Miami.

2) Seahawks, +1-- Surprising lack of support for homestanding Eagles.

1) Patriots, -3.5-- New England hasn't been good on grass last couple years.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-36

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

**********


Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) Top six teams in the college football rankings all won; how does the committee not take the same four teams that were #1-4 last week?

12) Ohio State 59, Wisconsin 0-- Epic tank job by the 10-3 Badgers, whose AD is on the selection committee; ESPN's Dan Dakich threw in that he was Urban Meyer's next-door neighbor when both were head coaches at Bowling Green. If I'm affiliated with TCU this morning, I'm really, really nervous that we're going to get screwed.

11) Florida State 37, Georgia Tech 35-- Seminoles are 13-0, 3-10 vs spread; Jameis Winston is 27-0 as a college quarterback. Jimbo Fisher didn't sleep well last night, in spite of not having lost a game in two years.

10) Oklahoma State 38, Oklahoma 35 OT-- Bad game management cost Sooners this game; up 7 with 1:00 to go, Oklahoma punted and Cowboys fair-caught ball on their own 10, something like that, but State ran into the punter, so for some reason, Oklahoma decides to punt again and the kidr runs it back 92 yards for the tying TD, then wins the game in OT. Just a bad mistake.

9) St John's 69, Syracuse 57-- Would love to hear what Coach Boeheim says about joining the ACC, off camera and behind closed doors. This is not a real good Syracuse team, hard to envision them in the NCAAs this season.

8) Arizona 66, Gonzaga 63 OT-- Good game, but Bulldogs were fouled shooting a 3 with 0:03.3 left in OT and missed all three foul shots, giving Arizona a comeback win on its home floor. You could see these teams meeting again in March.

7) NJIT 72, Michigan 70-- Highlanders lost by 17 at Albany, lost to UMass-Lowell twice; thats not the Minutemen, thats UMass-freakin'-LOWELL. NJIT trailed 8-0 at the start, then made 11-17 from arc as they jumped from #293 to #261. Oy.

6) North Florida 73, Purdue 70-- Ospreys is a cool nickname; North Florida has a coach named Matt Driscoll (not the Syracuse mayor), who 20 years ago was the head coach at Laroche College; his mentors are Larry Shyatt and Scott Drew, interesting contrast in styles. Purdue was off to a 6-1 start before this happened.

5) Green Bay 68, Miami 55-- This score just makes no sense, though Green Bay does have a very good PG in Kiefer Sykes.

4) Towson State plays Georgetown today; Tigers probably won't win, but they're 50-25 over the past 2.5 seasons, after being 1-31 three years ago. Some bigger school is going to give Pat Skerry a chance to run its program this spring.

3) Golden State 112, Chicago 102-- Warriors have now won 12 in a row, but their owner took an unnecessary shot at former coach Mark Jackson, bragging how the team is better with him gone now. 19 games into an 82-game season is a bit early for that.

2) When you look at NFL teams nad how they do on drives that start 80+ yards from goal line, these teams do the best:

Patriots 2.66 points/drive, Packers 2.47, Saints 2.33, Ravens 2.21, Colts 2.14

1) Teams that do the worst driving ball from own 20 or worse field position:

Vikings 0.63, Jaguars 0.74, Raiders 0.78, Bucs 0.97, Jets 1.07, Titans 1.16.

[StarDust Bum]

Seahawks rule out Unger, Helfet doubtful

December 5, 2014

RENTON, Wash. (AP) - For the first time since Week 5, the Seattle Seahawks have just three players listed as questionable or worse heading into Sunday's game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Center Max Unger has officially been ruled out for the third straight week with a high-ankle sprain. Head coach Pete Carroll is optimistic that Unger will have a chance to return next week for Seattle's rematch against the San Francisco 49ers.

''Max is running, not enough to compete for this week, but he has a chance next week,'' Carroll said. ''It will be day-to-day when he starts coming truly back but he has a chance to get back and compete for it.''

Tight end Cooper Helfet is listed as doubtful to play with a high-ankle sprain as well, but Carroll said Helfet will get a chance to test his ankle in pregame warmups.

''Cooper wants to run. He thinks he can show us something on game day. We'll see what happens with that,'' Carroll said.

Cornerback Jeremy Lane will be a game-time decision with a glute injury. He's listed as questionable. Carroll had seemed confident Lane would be able to play this week after getting extra days off following their victory over the 49ers on Thanksgiving night. However, Lane didn't practice Thursday and was limited on Friday.

The Seahawks are still carrying an open roster spot that Carroll said the team will fill prior to Sunday's game, though Carroll wouldn't specify what the move will be.

''This is all I got is this little teeny bit of suspense, so I'm going to hold it,'' Carroll said.

The move will likely be a promotion from their 10-man practice squad.

The spot has been vacant since Seattle placed linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis on injured reserve last Friday. The team had claimed defensive back Loucheiz Purifoy off waivers to fill the spot but Purifoy failed his physical with the team and was released.