The Bum's NBA October - Novemberr Best Bets-Trends,Stats,News !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Portland at Denver
The Trail Blazers head to Denver tonight where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus the Nuggets. Portland is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Trail Blazers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 701-702: Detroit at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.251; Washington 119.721
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+6 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Utah at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 110.992; Atlanta 123.020
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 12; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Under

Game 705-706: Oklahoma City at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 114.354; Boston 116.312
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+5 1/2); Under

Game 707-708: Indiana at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.982; Miami 125.261
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Over

Game 709-710: Orlando at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.938; New York 119.808
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 8; 185
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-6); Under

Game 711-712: LA Lakers at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 112.323; New Orleans 124.888
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-10 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Portland at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 122.926; Denver 117.347
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-2 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Brooklyn at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 120.000; Phoenix 123.544
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+5 1/2); Under

Game 717-718: Houston at Minnesota (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 126.290; Minnesota 117.674
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, November 12

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DETROIT (2 - 5) at WASHINGTON (5 - 2) - 11/12/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) first half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 323-391 ATS (-107.1 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 92-129 ATS (-49.9 Units) in November games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (3 - 5) at ATLANTA (3 - 3) - 11/12/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (2 - 6) at BOSTON (3 - 3) - 11/12/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 299-248 ATS (+26.2 Units) in all games since 1996.
BOSTON is 107-140 ATS (-47.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
BOSTON is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
BOSTON is 45-74 ATS (-36.4 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.
BOSTON is 78-115 ATS (-48.5 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (2 - 6) at MIAMI (5 - 2) - 11/12/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 101-134 ATS (-46.4 Units) in November games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 10-10 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 11-9 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
12 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (2 - 6) at NEW YORK (2 - 6) - 11/12/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 6-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (1 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 3) - 11/12/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 160-210 ATS (-71.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (5 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 5) - 11/12/2014, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (4 - 2) at PHOENIX (4 - 3) - 11/12/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 3-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-0 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (6 - 1) vs. MINNESOTA (2 - 4) - 11/12/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, November 12

Hot Teams
-- Washington won five of last six games (1-1 HF).
-- Hawks won both their home games (0-1-1 HF). Utah covered four of its last six games (2-2 AU).
-- Celtics won last two games by total of 8 points (1-1 HF).
-- Miami won five of its seven games (3-1 HF).
-- Portland won four of last five games, is 0-2 SU on road.
-- Nets won four of their last five games (1-1 AU).
-- Rockets won six of their seven games (5-2 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Detroit lost five of its seven games (0-7 vs spread).
-- Oklahoma City lost four of its last five games.
-- Pacers lost six of last seven games, covered three of last four.
-- Knicks lost their last five games (1-3-1 vs spread). Orlando lost six of eight games but covered four of last five.
-- Lakers lost six of last seven games, but covered last three. Pelicans lost three of last five games (2-1 HF).
-- Nuggets lost their last five games (0-5 vs spread).
-- Suns lost three of their last five games (1-1 HF).
-- Minnesota lost last two games by 9-10 points (3-1 as dog).

Series Records
-- Pistons won eight of last ten games with Washington.
-- Hawks won six in row, nine of last ten games with Utah.
-- Celtics lost six of last seven games with Oklahoma City.
-- Heat beat Indiana in six games in LY's playoffs.
-- Knicks won eight of last nine games with Orlando.
-- Lakers won 12 of last 15 games with Pelicans
-- Portland won last five games with Denver; they beat Nuggets 116-100 at home Sunday.
-- Suns lost their last five games with Brooklyn.
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Minnesota.

Totals
-- Three of last four Detroit games went over.
-- Four of six Atlanta games went over total.
-- Last four Boston games went over the total. Under is 6-1-1 in Thunder games this season.
-- Last four Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 15-1-1 in last seventeen Magic-Knick games.
-- Five of last six Laker games went over total.
-- Last four Denver games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Brooklyn games went over total.
-- All seven Houston games stayed under the total.

Back-to-Backs
--

East vs West
SU: West 17-10 ATS: West 14-13
East teams HF vs West: 6-4
East teams HU vs West: 3-1
West teams HF vs East: 5-4
West teams HU vs East: 4-0

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, November 12

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
DETROIT vs. WASHINGTON
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Detroit is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Detroit

7:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. BOSTON
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oklahoma City's last 17 games
Boston is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

7:30 PM
INDIANA vs. MIAMI
Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana

7:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. NEW YORK
Orlando is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Orlando is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games when playing Orlando
New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando

7:30 PM
UTAH vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
Utah is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home

8:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. NEW ORLEANS
LA Lakers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on the road
LA Lakers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 18 games at home

9:00 PM
BROOKLYN vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Brooklyn's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Phoenix is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

9:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Portland's last 10 games
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland

10:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Houston
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, November 12


Under scoarching with Zarba calling action

Offense has not been easy to come by in games with Zach Zarba officiating this season. In the six games Zarba has called, the over/under record is 1-5.

The average combined score of games that Zarba calls this season is 186.3 points

Zarba will be calling the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves with the total currently set at 201.


Home team on fire with Cutler overseeing action

Though the NBA season is young, home teams have been on fore when referee Kevin Cutler is calling the action. In all five of Cutler's games officiating, the home team has gone 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread.

Cutler will be overseeing the game between the Jazz and Hawks in Atlanta Wednesday.


Pistons still winless ATS, face Wizards as dogs

The Detroit Pistons are one of only two teams this season that have yet to cover in a single game. The Pistons have failed to cover their games by an average of four points this season, but have only missed their first ATS win by less than two points four times.

Detroit is averaging 91.9 points per game while allowing 96.7 ppg.

The Pistons are currently 6-point road dogs against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.


Nelson injured in win, but appears to be OK

Lost in the euphoria of Dirk Nowitzki’s milestone and the Dallas Mavericks’ amazing comeback win over the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday was an injury to point guard Jameer Nelson. The 11-year veteran went down hard late in the third quarter and limed off the court holding the back of his right leg.


Raptors second unit is pushing starters

During the regular season, a strong bench can propel a team a long way. The play of Toronto’s strong group of reserves is part of the reason why the team is off to a franchise-best 6-1 start. Each of the primary backups have spent considerable time as starters earlier in their careers, which means both that Toronto’s second unit will be more talented than most opponents’ reserves and that the starters will get pushed for playing time, benefiting everyone on the roster in the long run.


Orr has been automatic for visiting teams

When J.T. Orr takes to the court to call the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets game tonight, he will be bringing a hot trend. In the four games Orr has officiated this season, the home team is 0-4 straight up and against the spread.

In fact games have no been close as home teams have been outscored by a margin of 15.8 points per game.


Big line jump in Blazers-Nuggets matchup

There was a huge line jump in a Northwest Division showdown between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets (1-5 SU/ATS) opened as 1-point home dogs but were quickly bet a whopping 3.5-point to now sit at Denver -2.5.

Portland (5-3 SU/ATS) are expected to be without small forward Nicolas Batum for the next couple of games with an ankle injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet

November 12, 2014


Pistons at Wizards (-6 ½, 191) – 7:05 PM EST

Washington returns home after splitting a pair of road games at Toronto and Indiana, as the Wizards have fattened up so far on sub .500 competition on their way to a 5-2 mark. In all five victories, the Wizards have allowed less than 100 points, while knocking off the Bucks and Pacers at home. Randy Wittman’s team has gone ‘over’ the total in both game at the Verizon Center, even though the Wizards needed overtime to hit one of the ‘overs’ against the Pacers.

The Pistons are one of two teams in the league that has failed to cover a game yet this season, posting an 0-7 ATS record. Detroit has dropped two in a row since a modest two-game winning streak against New York and Milwaukee. Stan Van Gundy’s club has failed to reach the 100-point mark yet this season, while the Pistons and Wizards split four games last season.

Jazz at Hawks (-7, 198 ½) – 7:35 PM EST

Utah continues a five-game road trip after beating Detroit and falling at Indiana on a back-to-back set. The Jazz has alternated wins and losses in their past seven games, while covering in four of their previous six contests. Utah will look to turn around its luck against Atlanta, losing seven of the last nine meetings in the series, including three straight defeats at Philips Arena.

Atlanta has slugged its way to a 3-3 record, capped off by a home-and-home sweep of New York. The Hawks held off the Knicks on Monday night in Manhattan, 91-85 as two-point favorites, while putting together their best defense effort of the season. Last season, the Hawks compiled a 2-6 ATS record as a home favorite off a road win, while playing in this role for the first time this season.

Thunder at Celtics (-5 ½, 197 ½) – 7:35 PM EST

Oklahoma City remains winless on the road following last night’s 85-78 defeat at Milwaukee as three-point underdogs. The Thunder is 0-5 away from home, while scoring less than 90 points in all five road setbacks (1-4 ATS). OKC shot just 33% from the floor on Tuesday night, as outside of Reggie Jackson’s 29 points on 12-of-21 shooting, the rest of the Thunder starting five converted on only 8-of-40 attempts from the field.

Rajon Rondo is expected back in the Celtics’ lineup after missing Saturday’s underdog victory at Chicago with a hand injury. Boston has pushed the pace this season by hitting the ‘over’ in five of six games, while scoring at least 100 points five times. Seven Celtics scored in double-figures in the 106-101 win over the Bulls without Rondo and Marcus Smart, as the rookie from Oklahoma State will be sidelined for two-to-three weeks with an ankle injury.

Pacers at Heat (-8 ½, 189 ½) – 7:35 PM EST

Last season, these two teams played for the Eastern Conference Championship. Now, both squads will be lucky to get out of the first round of the playoffs. Miami is a likely playoff squad, while Indiana may have problems getting to 30 wins, as the Pacers are just 2-6 so far and dealing with a myriad of injuries. The Pacers did snap a six-game skid in Monday’s 97-86 home victory over the Jazz, as Frank Vogel’s team still hasn’t eclipsed the 100-point mark this season.

The Heat hasn’t suffered (yet) from LeBron James’ departure, going 5-2 through seven games, which includes an impressive victory at Dallas as eight-point underdogs on Sunday. Miami shot 55% from the floor, while Luol Deng scored 30 points on 13-of-19 shooting. The Heat is riding a four-game ‘under’ streak, while scoring at least 100 points all five wins this season.

Magic at Knicks (-6 ½, 190 ½) – 7:35 PM EST

New York is listed in the rare favorite role tonight, as the Knicks have limped to a 2-6 SU/ATS start. Since upsetting the Cavaliers as a 13-point underdog in the second game of the season, the Knicks are 1-5 in the past six games, while not busting the 100-point mark yet in eight contests. New York is 0-4 ATS at Madison Square Garden, while failing to cash in its lone home win over Charlotte.

The Magic have played better of late, covering four of their past five in spite of last night’s 104-100 setback at Toronto as 11-point underdogs. Orlando squandered an 11-point lead heading into the fourth quarter at Toronto, and lost despite making 12 three-pointers. The Magic has played a tough schedule so far, taking on four teams already that made the playoffs last season, while beating two non-playoff teams, the 76ers and Timberwolves.

Lakers at Pelicans (-10 ½, 208) – 8:05 PM EST

Los Angeles continues its road trip tonight, as the Lakers have managed consecutive covers following Tuesday’s 107-102 loss at Memphis as 10-point underdogs. The Lakers shot well enough to hang with the Grizzlies (47%), but Memphis hit 52% of its shots to send L.A. to its sixth loss in seven games. Last season, the Lakers lost two of three meetings with the Pelicans, including an 11-point loss in New Orleans last November.

The Pelicans return to the Big Easy after splitting a pair of tough road games at San Antonio and Cleveland. New Orleans put up a season-high 111 points at Cleveland on Monday, but couldn’t hold onto a 12-point lead, despite a 32-point effort off the bench from Ryan Anderson. The Pelicans have won two of three games at home so far, as Monty Williams’ team has an excellent opportunity to improve to 5-3 with the Lakers and Timberwolves on their homecourt in the next three days.

Blazers (-2 ½, 209) at Nuggets – 9:05 PM EST

These division rivals meet for the second time in four days, as Portland ripped Denver on Sunday, 116-100 to cover as nine-point favorites. The venue shifts to the Pepsi Center, as the Nuggets look for any kind of spark to snap a five-game losing streak. Since allowing 79 points in the season-opening victory over the Pistons, the Nuggets have given up at least 100 points in all five losses, while going 3-1-1 to the ‘over’ in this span.

The Blazers erased a 23-point deficit in last night’s 102-100 triumph over the Hornets, but Portland didn’t pick up the cover as 6 ½-point favorites. Nicolas Batum is expected to sit out again for the Blazers after missing last night’s victory with a leg injury. From 2004 through the end of the 2013 season, Portland dropped 17 of 18 visits to the Pepsi Center, but the Blazers rebounded last season by winning both matchups in Denver.

Nets at Suns (-5 ½, 206 ½) – 9:05 PM EST

Brooklyn ventures west for a three-game road trip, looking to capitalize off a 3-1 homestand. Four of the Nets’ five wins have come by double-digits, as Brooklyn failed to cover in a 104-96 victory over the Magic as 8 ½-point favorites on Sunday. The Nets swept the season series from the Suns last season, including an overtime victory in Phoenix last November.

The Suns snapped a two-game skid in Sunday’s 107-95 victory over the previously unbeaten Warriors, who were without second-leading scorer Klay Thompson. Phoenix outscored Golden State, 36-16 in the fourth quarter, one game after the Suns squandered an 11-point fourth leader in a double-overtime loss to the Kings. Last season, the Suns won 10 of 15 home games against Eastern Conference foes, while facing an Eastern team for the first time this season.

Rockets (-7, 200 ½) at Wolves – 10:05 PM EST

Houston and Minnesota head to Mexico City for a late tipoff, as the Rockets try to rebound from their first loss of the season. Dwight Howard missed Saturday’s defeat to Golden State with the flu, as the Rockets shot only 35% from the floor and converted on 10-of-42 attempts from three-point range in a 98-87 setback. Even though Houston was incredibly ineffective offensively, Kevin McHale’s team still hasn’t given up over 100 points this season during its 6-1 start.

Minnesota turned into an early surprise for bettors with a 4-0 ATS record, but the Wolves failed to cover in their past two losses to the Magic and Heat. To make matters worse, point guard Ricky Rubio is sidelined for nearly two months with an ankle injury suffered in the overtime loss at Orlando last Friday. This is technically a home game for the Wolves, but Minnesota had its issues with Houston last season by losing three of four meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Kobe trade rumors swirl

November 11, 2014

DYSFUNCTION JUNCTION AT STAPLES CENTER

Rewind to the summer of 1973. The basketball world was stunned by Wilt Chamberlain's announcement that he was jumping from the L.A. Lakers to the ABA's San Diego Conquistadors as player-coach. The Lakers would sue, claiming Wilt still owed them the option year of his contract. But the Lakers were just partly successful in their legal challenge, as Chamberlain was only barred from playing for the Qs...not coaching the ABA team. So, Wilt, to the disbelief of many, became a head coach, albeit in the ABA.

Basketball insiders were startled. Including the great Jerry West, Wilt's teammate with the Lakers. While this writer attended former Southern Cal head coach Bob Boyd's basketball camp that summer at Occidental College, West was the guest speaker one day, and during a question-and-answer session, West was asked, predictably, about his reaction to Chamberlain becoming a head coach. "That," said West, "I would like to see."

Whatever, Wilt was gone and a bright era of Laker greatness was coming to an end, too. West, into his mid 30s but still able to score better than 20 ppg, was having trouble staying healthy and would play only 31 games in the subsequent 1973-74 campaign. Minus Wilt, the Lakers would make a trade for a big man on the eve of the season, in September, when GM Pete Newell sent F Jim McMillian to the Buffalo Braves in a straight-up swap for third-year C Elmore Smith. For a while, the shot-swatting Smith appeared to be a very serviceable alternative to a later-career Wilt, and HC Bill Sharman was able to steer the Lake Show into the playoffs, where they would be dispatched in the first round when losing in five to the Bucks.

West, however, having played in a limited number of games, would retire after that campaign, and all the Lakers would then have left from their title team of three years earlier would be Sharman, star G Gail Goodrich and backup G named...Pat Riley. The 1974-75 season would thus be a difficult one, with a late 1960s St. Louis Hawks reunion of C Zelmo Beaty and F Bill Bridges part of a new, jerry-rigged cast of Laker characters. Los Angeles would limp home at 30-52, its worst record since relocating from Minneapolis in 1959.

But the Lake Show would quickly recalibrate the next season when Newell engineered a massive trade that brought Kareem Abdul-Jabbar back to L.A. (with none other than Elmore Smith one of several dealt away to the Bucks), where he played collegiately with UCLA. Even with Kareem, the Laker roster was still thin, with the likes of Cornell Warner, Don Ford, and/or Corky Calhoun often paired with Abdul-Jabbar on the frontline, but a new seed had been planted around which a forest could grow, as the Lakers improved 10 wins and barely missed the playoffs. Sharman, who had started to lose his voice in the 1972 playoffs, would retire to the front office after that season to be replaced by West as the head coach. With the still-dominant Abdul-Jabbar in the middle, the Lakers quickly climbed back to relevance, adding extra pieces every year until Magic Johnson arrived for the 1979-80 season and proved the final ingredient in a championship mix that would endure for the duration of the '80s.

Fast forward to summer, 2004. After losing in the Finals to the Pistons ("the first five-game sweep in playoff history," according to sports talk host Jim Rome), the Lakers, two years removed from their last of three straight titles, began to disassemble. Coach Phil Jackson would retire. Shaquille O'Neal would be traded to the Heat. Rudy Tomjanovich was hired as the new head coach. The roster, then with Kobe Bryant (who had clashed with Shaq) as the unquestioned headliner, was otherwise talent-shy, with a supporting cast featuring the likes of G Chucky Atkins and C Chris Mihm. Kobe and new running mate Lamar Odom (acquired from the Heat in the Shaq trade) would eventually miss time due to injury, and Tomjanovich, citing health reasons, would resign halfway through the season. With longtime Jackson aide Frank Hamblen assuming the coaching reins, the Lakers would collapse down the stretch and finish 34-48...their first losing season since 1993-94 (when Magic Johnson would assume coaching duties in an ill-fated experiment during the final month of the campaign).

Jackson, however, would be lured back to the bench the next season, and would quickly rebuild the Lakers into a title contender once more. The Lake Show would get back to the playoffs in Jackson's first two years of his second tour of duty, then emerge as a serious championship threat in Jackson's third season (2007-08) when reacquiring G Derek Fisher, a key cog in Jackson's title winners from earlier in the decade, and frontliner Pau Gasol, the final piece added in a midseason trade with Memphis. The following year the Lakers would win the NBA title and, for good measure, do it again in 2009-10. But when the Lake Show was swept out of the playoffs by Dallas the following year, Jackson would step down once more.

Still, Laker fans believed their team would quickly make adjustments as needed on the fly. After all, hadn't the Lake Show always recovered quickly from any bumpy seasons?

We mention all of the above, and the quick bounce-backs the Lakers have always made from rare poor seasons in the past, because something feels entirely different about the new plight of the Lake Show. Last year the team dipped to 27-55, its worst record of the 55-year L.A. era. And there are early indicators that there will be no quick recovery this season, either. In fact, if early performances are indicative, the Lakers appear hard-pressed to reach the 27 wins they recorded a year ago. Moreover, if the first week of the new season is any indicator, this Laker edition would appear to be the worst in the Western Conference...perhaps by a good margin.

Now, the Lake Show is making news for all of the wrong reasons. But it is still making news, more so than many playoff-caliber teams, much of it triggered by a recent article that appeared in ESPN The Magazine and written by Henry Abbott, which has become one of the most-discussed editorial pieces about the NBA--or any sport--in recent memory.

The focus of the Abbott piece was Kobe, also the name of the story. And Abbott would hardly portray Bryant in a flattering light

The response to the Abbott story has been a bit curious, given that no one is really disputing much about Kobe that appears in the piece. Abbott, however, has come under a lot of fire from various corners about running a piece that liberally quotes unnamed sources. Judging by some of the reaction to the Abbott piece, however, one might think that Abbott is the only journalist who would dare to quote unnamed sources.

Earlier in this football season, we did a comprehensive review of a story written for SB Nation last April by Steven Godfrey entitled Meet The Bag Man, a review of the seedy side of college football recruiting. Godfrey would also cite numerous unnamed sources throughout his story.

To the uninitiated, we remind you that "unnamed sources" do not mean fabrication of fact, or unreliability of information. There are various ways a reporter can seek confirmation of information without revealing names. In fact, laws protect writers who wish confidentiality of their sources. Courts cannot compel a journalist to reveal the identity of an anonymous source for a story. The right is based on a recognition that without a strong guarantee of anonymity, many people would be deterred from coming forward and sharing information of public interest with journalists. As a result, problems such as corruption or crime might go undetected and unchallenged, to the ultimate detriment of society as a whole.

Now, the Kobe Bryant piece by Abbott in ESPN The Magazine has no real impact on society as a whole (aside from those Laker fans who thought the piece to be blasphemous). But Abbott, like Steven Godfrey, is merely the latest in a long line of journalists that might stretch around the equator who have cited unnamed sources and have been perfectly within their journalistic rights to do so. Indeed, perhaps the most decorated piece of investigative journalism in American history, Watergate and All The President's Men by Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein, made liberal use of unnamed and deep background sources.

So, if nothing else, Abbott is in good company in the unnamed sources category.

Abbott, however, was not uncovering a lot of new information in his piece, especially the thrust of the article about Kobe's boorishness and insufferability. It has been well known for years that the self-absorbed Bryant is a pill. And while we believe Abbott was pretty spot-on about everything he said about Kobe, Abbott might have erred when suggesting that Bryant was the main cause of the Lakers' downfall. While the Kobe factor figures large in the Lake Show's current dilemma, it is not the only reason the franchise is reeling at the moment.

Many Laker fans believe the first contributing factor to the current plight of the franchise was dealt by the NBA when nixing the trade for Chris Paul from New Orleans three years ago. We do not deny that Laker fans, who believe that the blockade of the trade was done spitefully by a league which had become tired of Laker successes and one-sided deals made in L.A.'s favor in the past, might have a point. But the then-called Hornets were at the time a ward of the league, and the owners, led by Mark Cuban and others, had every right to veto the deal and seek another, perhaps better, trade for New Orleans. After all, the other NBA owners were technically the owners of the Hornets in late 2011. New Orleans GM Dell Demps, like all GMs, would need approval from ownership to make a deal, and Mark Cuban and the rest were within their rights to ask Demps to continue to shop Paul.

Shortly thereafter, Paul was dealt to the Clippers, a cruel blow to Laker fans who will never stop believing the league had it in for the team.

Regardless of opinions of the Paul trade/non-trade, it did seem to mark the next point, after Jackson's second retirement, where the Lakers began to lose traction. Since then, most of the personnel and coaching moves have backfired. As well as front office developments in L.A., starting with the February, 2013 passing of franchise patriarch Jerry Buss, who ceded command of the franchise to son Jimmy (who has final say on basketball matters) and daughter Jeanie...who also happens to be Phil Jackson's fiancee.

There is a litany of Laker mis-steps over the past two years, beginning with the aborted courtship of Jackson after HC Mike Brown was dismissed in November of 2012, to the attempts at signing Dwight Howard to a long-term contract, to the feet-dragging at naming a replacement for HC Mike D'Antoni, who resigned after the 2013-14 campaign, preceding months of indecision before Byron Scott was hired as coach. Pursuit of significant free agents went nowhere last summer, which the Abbott story claims might have something to do with Bryant. (Perhaps the most illustrative installment of the Abbott piece was Laker GM Mitch Kupchak's disappointment at not being able to make the proper push for Howard, wrecked in part by a petulant Bryant at a key face-to-face meeting with big Dwight). Still, much of the present Laker mess can also be pinned away from Bryant and upon the current franchise structure that begins with Jim Buss and works downward.

Kobe? As Abbott suggests, he's a major impediment moving forward as well, although we believe he is far from the only problem case in the Laker organization.

We have to wonder, however, what the end game is going to be with Kobe, in the first year of a two-year, $48 million deal. In five decades of watching hoops, we hardly recall a situation looking so disjointed as the current Laker plight, with Bryant in the eye of the hurricane. A brooding Kobe seems to be operating outside of whatever parameters new HC Scott has tried to put in place with the current edition of the Lakers

In the Lake Show's most recent game last Tuesday vs. Phoenix, the aging Bryant hoisted 37 shots, missing 24 of them. Even with an injury-plagued roster (more on that in a moment), we hardly believe this is what Scott has designed for whatever lineup he puts on the floor. As much, or more, than ever, Kobe is simply taking the ball and acting oblivious to teammates, forcing countless bad shots and, outwardly at least, showing no remorse for doing so. The body language for the Lakers is mostly awful, as it is apparent that no one is going to tell Bryant not to shoot so much. Kobe's expressions during the game are also illuminating, with Kobe rarely looking at teammates in the sideline huddle, and seeming to tune out whatever Scott is saying. This hardly looks like a pleasant situation for any player on the team, or coach on the bench.

As the losses mount (the Lakers were 1-5 through Sunday), we wonder what the reaction will be of Bryant, who cannot be enamored at the prospect of being the centerpiece of what might be the league's worst team (though the 76ers, also still winless entering the weekend, might offer an argument). Help is not forthcoming for the current edition of the Lakers, either, especially with promising Kentucky rookie PF Julius Randle out for rest of the season with a broken leg suffered on opening night vs. the Rockets, and vet G Steve Nash (whose contributions were going to be hard to gauge) also sidelined for the season due to a back injury. Explosive wing Nick Young, the Lakers' most entertaining component aside from Bryant, is out, perhaps until early December, with a thumb injury.

(As for the rookie Randle, his leg injury might be only part of the story with him, as it has been revealed that many teams were scared off Randle in last June's draft because of concerns over his foot, dating back to his high school days and another potential problem for the former Kentucky bruiser when and if he gets back on the floor.)

Meanwhile, new roster pieces are yet to provide much help, with PG Jeremy Lin's contributions negligible to date and vet PF Carlos Boozer looking more and more past his sell-by date, and a subpar replacement for Pau Gasol, who left for the Bulls in free agency over the summer. The Laker defense, one of the league's worst last season, has been abysmal, as the team has allowed a whopping 117 ppg in its first five games. The offense has also been inefficient; Bryant, though gunning indiscriminately, also seems to be the only Laker willing to fire a 3-point shot, which has become an increasingly important offensive component in the modern-day NBA.

Handicapping-wise, we have to get used to the odd new reality that the Lakers are going to be largely overlooked by many teams. The Lake Show might be able to catch a lot of disinterested foes on an off night. Which is why we are not quite ready to say that the Lakers are a full-blown go-against proposition. There could be several nights like last Friday, when the Clippers were going through the motions for most of the game before finally getting serious in the final few minutes to pull away to a 118-111 win...which wasn't quite enough to cover a hefty pointspread. It would be no surprise if that scenario to repeats several times in the coming weeks and months with the Lake Show.

Meanwhile, the rumor mill has something else to whirr about now, too, as Bryant's name is suddenly coming up in trade whispers. The most popular at the moment is that the Knicks, with their many Laker connections featuring Jackson as the team president and Derek Fisher the new head coach, would be a possible landing spot for Kobe, as New York could also package expiring contracts (including Amar'e Stoudemire) back to L.A. to make a salary fit for any deal. Big Apple tabloids are certainly suggesting as much, and dreaming of a Kobe-Carmelo Anthony pairing ('Melo is supposedly on good terms with Kobe, thought we wonder how those two would co-exist with only one ball on the court). But there is nothing to indicate this is more than just idle speculation from various sports writers who are making the mistaken assumption that just because something could happen, that it will. Kobe's massive contract also makes him effectively, though not completely, untradeable, with only a few teams (like the Knicks) able to provide contract fits/swaps necessary.

Still, the Lakers, as most insiders seem to indicate, are going to be unlikely to deal Bryant as long as he remains a reason for Lake Show fans to tune into the games on the Time Warner Sports Channel, now in the second year of a mega-bucks deal with the Lakers. But much of the team's compensation from the TV deal is based upon ratings (which were fourth in the NBA last season, even with the 27-55 record). Even with the losses mounting, Kobe's presence still pulls viewers, and the Lakers need TV sets tuned into the Time Warner channel to reap their biggest rewards. Dealing away Bryant, so the thought goes in L.A., would jeopardize revenues from Time Warner, which was a reason many believe that Jim Buss decided to give Kobe a big-bucks extension, figuring it necessary to keep the TV ratings at an acceptable level.

Which brings us to another angle on the Lakers plight. The Lake Show is the main income source for the Buss family, not some high-risk part of an extensive portfolio as other NBA teams are for the several billionaire owners in the league. The Buss family is not as well-heeled as Mark Cuban, or new Clippers owner Steve Ballmer. Indeed, it is fact that the Lakers are known to not pay their non-player and coaching employees very well at all. It is something of a shoestring operation because some of the financial limitations of the Buss family, at least in comparison with other NBA ownership situations.

What we will find out in the next couple of months, however, is if Kobe (or specifically his agent Rob Pelinka) might be quietly shopping for a deal outside of Los Angeles. Though Bryant has outwardly denied interest in playing anywhere else, he also realizes his dream of a sixth NBA title ring is now futile with the Lakers, who are years away from building another contender. We would keep our eyes on this situation, as we have a hard time believing Bryant is enjoying being a part of the current mess with the Lakers any more than his current teammates like having to co-exist with Kobe, who is likely to become more insufferable if the team careens toward 60 (or more) losses. We certainly could not blame Kobe, or Pelinka, for shopping, as the L.A. situation detriorates.

Meanwhile, what of the Buss clan? At some point, Jim and Jeanie might decide that the glory days are not going to return anytime soon, and that all it would take to receive a windfall that would likely exceed two billion dollars (or maybe considerably more) would be to put the team on the market. The feeding frenzy for the Lakers brand might exceed what was recently paid in Los Angeles for other franchises like the Dodgers and Clippers combined.

Whether they publicly admit as much, the temptation to sell is bound to strike the Buss clan soon (if it hasn't already). The pressure is also likely to begin ratcheting up from a fan base that will soon become angry as it realizes the franchise is not in competent hands. It does not sit well with anyone in "Laker Nation" that the Lake Show could continue to lose ground against the Staples Center-sharing Clippers, now the featured hoops show in town.

Our advice to Lakers fans? The bad times have just begun. The situation appears toxic. A divorce from Kobe might be the best thing for all parties involved. Is it really worth it to Lakers fans having Kobe as the centerpiece of this mess?

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the college basketball national title next spring........

2-1-- Kentucky-- Their second unit would be a top 25 team.

7-1-- Arizona-- Senior point guard is unusual these days at this level.

10-1-- Duke, Wisconsin-- Duke has more talent; Badgers have more experience.

15-1-- Florida, Kansas, North Carolina-- Jayhawks have really young team.

20-1-- Gonzaga-- This is best team Mark Few has had in Spokane.

25-1-- Louisville, Texas-- Longhorns were a surprise team last year.

**********


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Random thoughts from the desert....

13) What does it say that one of Drew Brees' kids was on the Superdome field after the Saints' game Sunday, wearing a #43 jersey? Think Brees misses Darren Sproles?

12) Chiefs' WRs have yet to catch a TD pass this season; every other team's WRs have caught at least three touchdowns.

11) Bills have to be sick about losing at home to the Chiefs; in a 17-13 game, they scored two field goals on four trips to the KC red zone. No bueno.

10) NFL officials lightened up on the defensive penalties in Week 10, with average of 2.83 first downs via penalty per game last week, down about 1.5 a game from what had been the season average this year.

9) Redskins have scored only two TDs on drives of less than 60 yards, least in NFL; Jets and Rams are next with three each. Baltimore (13) has scored the most.

8) By way of contrast, 10 of Cleveland's 22 TDs came on drives of less than 60 yards, meaning their defense/special teams are setting the offense up in great shape.

7) Odd stat of day: Raiders are 0-9, Houston lost their last 14 games last year, which means that Oakland backup QB Matt Schaub is on a 23-game NFL losing streak.

6) Something to follow while watching the Giants this week; the team that won field position this season won all nine Giant games.

5) When was last time someone tore the goalposts down after beating Iowa State? Fans at Kansas did last week; thats how awful their football team is. Usually if you lose to Iowa State, your coach starts packing his bags for his next job.

4) I told you being a window washer is a bad job; couple guys had to be rescued off the side of a building in New York City, up on 50th floor or so. Not sure how much those guys get paid, but it ain't near enough.

3) Victor Martinez re-upped for four years to be the Tigers' DH, good news for Detroit fans and more importantly, for my fantasy baseball team.

2) ESPN's NBA pregame show is way better now with Avery Johnson and Jalen Rose as studio analysts. It had been unwatchable the last couple years.

1) Denver Nuggets fired George Karl because he always lost in the first round of the playoffs; no such worries anymore- Denver is terrible, losing its last six games of the year, not even covering a spread in any of the six games. Only way they'll watch any playoff games in Denver this season is on TV, where Karl now works.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Sacramento at Memphis
The Kings head to Memphis tonight following a 106-98 loss at Dallas and come into the contest with a 10-3-1 ATS record in their last 14 games following a SU defeat. Sacramento is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13

Game 501-502: Chicago at Toronto (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.297; Toronto 127.266
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 10; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Sacramento at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 120.588; Memphis 123.923
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 107.921; Dallas 124.635
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 16 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 13; 209
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-13); Under

Game 507-508: Brooklyn at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 121.550; Golden State 127.103
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 9; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+9); Over




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 13

Hot Teams
-- Grizzlies won six of their last seven games (1-2 H).
-- Toronto won its last five games (4-1 vs spread). Bulls won five of last six games (0-0 U).
-- Dallas won five of its last seven games (2-2 HF).
-- Nets won four of last six games (1-2 AU).

Cold Teams
-- Sacramento lost last two games, both by 8 points, after winning its previous five games.
-- 76ers are 0-7, but covered three of last four games.
-- Golden State lost last two games after winning first five (2-1 HF).

Series Records
-- Kings lost 11 of last 12 games with Memphis.
-- Raptors won four of last six games with Chicago.
-- 76ers lost six of their last seven games with Dallas (1-6 vs spread).
-- Nets lost three of last four games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Five of last six Memphis games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Chicago games went over.
-- Mavericks' last four games stayed under the total.
-- Five of seven Brooklyn games went over the total.

Back-to-Backs
--

East vs West
SU: West 19-11 ATS: West 17-13
East teams HF vs West: 6-6
East teams HU vs West: 3-1
West teams HF vs East: 6-4
West teams HU vs East: 4-0




NBA

Thursday, November 13

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. MEMPHIS
Sacramento is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 9 games at home

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TORONTO
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

10:30 PM
BROOKLYN vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Brooklyn is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, November 13


Road teams, underdogs have huge night on hardcourt

On a night were eight of the nine games played in the NBA had the road teams listed as underdogs, those dogs came through huge for their backers.

Underdogs on the whole went 7-2 against the spread Wednesday night, while road underdogs did even better going 7-1 ATS. But the most impressive trend of the night was road teams, going an incredible 8-1 ATS.

There are four more road dogs on the schedule Thursday night, Sacramento (+6.5) at Memphis, Chicago (+2.5) at Toronto, Philadelphia (+13) at Dallas and Brooklyn (+9) at Golden State.


76ers PF Nerlens Noel, questionable Thursday

Noel has missed the last two games with a left ankle sprain but is expected to return to play against the Mavericks on Thursday.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 13

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CHICAGO (6 - 2) at TORONTO (7 - 1) - 11/13/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 54-40 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-3 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (5 - 3) at MEMPHIS (7 - 1) - 11/13/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 7-0 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (0 - 7) at DALLAS (5 - 3) - 11/13/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 101-76 ATS (+17.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (4 - 3) at GOLDEN STATE (5 - 2) - 11/13/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 63-36 ATS (+23.4 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-41 ATS (+14.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Thursday

November 13, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Warriors are 0-10 ATS (-8.05 ppg) since Nov 10, 2003 at home after a home game where they attempted at least 15 fewer field goals than their opponent.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The 76ers are 0-16 OU (-11.1 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 on the road when they shot less than 40% from the field last game, if they are not playing rested vs. unrested.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mavericks are 10-0 OU (16.45 ppg) since Feb 03, 2014 after irk Nowitzki was the Mavericks’ high scorer at home.

NBA BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Warriors are 12-0 ATS (10.75 ppg) after a loss in which Draymond Green scored fewer than 10 points.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-8.81 ppg) since Feb 28, 2014 as a home favorite after a win.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Thursday

November 13, 2014


Thursday’s pro basketball card features four games on tap, which includes the weekly double-header on TNT. For those of you who have read my weekly “Total Talk” column in the NFL, you’re well aware that I like to dig up trends and possible situations.

With that being said, I believe we’re due for a great back-and-forth shootout on Thursday, especially in one of the nationally televised battles.

I understand the sample size isn’t great but you can see that the guys on TNT have been more entertaining to watch this season than the play on the court.

Tuesday, Oct. 28
Dallas 100 San Antonio 101 (Under 203)
Houston 108 L.A. Lakers 90 (Under 207)

Thursday, Oct. 30
New York 95 Cleveland 90 (Under 204)
Oklahoma City 90 L.A. Clippers 93 (Under 205.5)

Thursday, Nov. 6
San Antonio 81 Houston 98 (Under 179)
Dallas 87 Portland 108 (Under 209.5)

Looking above, you can see that the ‘under’ has produced a 6-0 mark in the first six games on TNT.

Does that mean that the ‘over’ will cash in both games tonight?

Last night, the ‘over’ produced a 7-1-1 record while favorites went 5-4 straight up and 2-7 against the spread.

Let’s handicap the card.

Chicago at Toronto (TNT, 8:05 p.m.)

The Raptors (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have looked sharp this season and will enter Thursday’s matchup with a five-game winning streak intact. Most betting shops have installed Toronto as a 2 ½-point home favorite over Chicago, which is the first time the Bulls are catching points this season. Also, it should be noted that the Bulls have actually been better on the road (4-0) this season than at home (2-2).

Toronto has gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home, the lone non-cover coming in Tuesday’s 104-100 win against Orlando as an 11-point favorite.

These teams went 2-2 in their four regular season encounters last season and the road team captured all four wins. The ‘under’ went 3-1 and the lone ‘over’ barely got there.

Tonight’s total is much higher (195) than the numbers we saw last season and both the Bulls (5-2) and Raptors (6-2) have been ‘over’ teams so far.

Brooklyn at Golden State (TNT, 10:35 p.m.)

We apologize to those of you who bet the Nets (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) last night against the Suns. After scoring 63 points in the first, Brooklyn (+4.5) ran out of gas in the second and managed 41 points in the final two quarters. Phoenix captured a 112-104 win and was helped with a 12-for-12 performance from the free throw line in the fourth quarter.

Things don’t get easier for Brooklyn tonight as it visits Golden State (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Warriors will be looking to avoid a three-game losing skid after getting humbled by the Suns (107-9) on Sunday and Spurs (113-100) on Tuesday.

Golden State has been listed as nine-point favorite and while that number seems inflated, it’s become apparent that the Warriors are bullies, especially at home. Four of Golden State’s five wins have been by double digits, which tells you that it covers when it wins.

This will be the first back-to-back spot for the Nets this season. Last year, Brooklyn was 5-14 SU and 7-12 ATS on zero days.

The ‘over’ has gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the pair and the oddsmakers are expecting another shootout in this spot, opening Thursday’s total at 205.

Other Games

Sacramento (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) at Memphis (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS): Including three wins last season, the Grizzlies have captured seven straight (4-3 ATS) against the Kings and if you go back 20 games, Memphis is 16-4 (12-8 ATS) in the last 20 meetings. The Grizzlies are listed as 6 ½-point favorites, which tells you Sacramento is gaining a little more respect at the betting counter. After opening the season 5-1, the Kings have dropped two straight and Tuesday’s loss at Dallas (106-98) saw the club blow a 20-point lead. The Grizzlies are great defensive club but they’ve had trouble covering numbers, especially as a favorite (2-4 ATS). The total for this game opened 190 ½. Make a note that the ‘under’ cashed in all three encounters between the pair last season.

Philadelphia (0-7 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Dallas (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS): The oddsmakers are telling you this game is a mismatch as they opened the Mavericks as 15-point home favorites. The 76ers actually received some action and the line has settled between 13 and 14 points. Dallas swept both regular season matchups last year but Philadelphia went 2-0 ATS as the losses were by 12 and three points. Philadelphia has gone 5-25 SU and 10-20 ATS in its last 30 games versus the Western Conference. Surprisingly, four of those wins came on the road. Dating back to last season, Dallas is 20-10 SU and 11-18-1 ATS as a home favorite, which includes a 2-1 SU and 0-2-1 ATS this November.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- RIP, Alvin Dark, who managed the '74 A's to their third straight World Series title. He won Rookie of the Year as a shortstop in 1948.

-- USC 38, Cal 30-- Trojans led 31-2, were some sad folks in Westgate sportsbook when Cal covered thru the back door in last 2:00.

-- Grizzlies 111, Kings 110-- Sacramento blew a 24-point Tuesday, a 26-point lead in this game. Memphis wins on a lob pass with less than a second left.

-- Mavericks 123, 76ers 70-- Philly was down 57-19; they might be the worst NBA team ever and I'm not kidding. 1973 Sixers went 9-73; that record is in reach.

-- Cincinnati 54, East Carolina 46-- Sloppy game with terrible defense. Bad loss for an ECU team that looked better earlier this season.

-- NBA commish Adam Silver wrote an op/ed piece advocating the legalizing of sports betting. Silver is a tall, bald man with glasses; he must be brilliant!!!!

**********


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend.....

13) Browns' QB Brian Hoyer is a free agent after this year; his old coach with New England was Bill O'Brien, the Texans' coach. Houston needs a QB; if Ryan Mallett is not the Texans' answer, would they make Hoyer a rich man?

12) Clemson lost its last four visits to Georgia Tech; can they reverse that trend and get a solid win over a streaking Yellow Jacket squad?

11) Weather is supposed to be frigid on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field Sunday, as Eagles visit in a rematch of the 1960 championship game. Mark Sanchez is from California; will Philly offense suffer in this game?

10) LSU lost a tough OT game last week; Arkansas had a bye. Bret Bielema is 0-13 in SEC games; can he break thru at home against a Tiger squad that beat Arkansas the last three years?

9) Bengals were awful last week; Saints lost their first home game in OT. This game looks like an over waiting to happen. Which team will stop whom first?

8) Duke is favored over Virginia Tech this week; the last ten times these teams met, Tech was a double digit favorite. Blue Devils are an over-achieving 8-1 this year.

7) Seahawks-Chiefs is a surprisingly good game this week. KC held the Bills to two field goals on four red zone drives last week, escaped with a 17-13 win. Seattle lost its NT for the year last week, good news for Jamaal Charles' fantasy owners.

6) Arizona State has a trap game in Corvallis after beating Notre Dame 55-31 last week. Graham has a good record as a road favorite and Beavers have been slumping but in the past, thats when they've been most dangerous.

5) Chicago Bears were pathetic Sunday night, now they're a home favorite when the entire Windy City is calling for people to be fired. Whatever they have left in their collective tanks, we'll see it here, if they have any pride at all.

4) Georgia gets star RB Todd Gurley back from his ridiculous suspension this week; Dawgs won six of last eight games against Auburn, which lost to Texas A&M last week as a 21-point favorite.

3) Patriots-Colts are both very hot teams. Not many teams have transitioned from one superstar QB to another as easily as Indy has. Both teams are going to coast to division titles, but this game could matter for home field in playoffs.

2) Mississippi State is a 9.5-point underdog at Alabama; how come they're ranked #1 in the country? Why don't the oddsmakers have a voice in the polls?

1) 7-2 Lions at 8-1 Cardinals is the best game of the week in a week with several big games. Who would've guessed this back in May, when the schedule came out?

[StarDust Bum]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

The Ohio State Buckeyes picked up their biggest win of the season in East Lansing last weekend, trumping Michigan State 49-37 and greatly improving their chances of cracking the College Football Playoff Final Four. The Buckeyes, who own the inside track to the Big Ten title, enter Week 12 ranked No. 7 in the Coaches Poll and jumped six spots to sit No. 8 in the Playoff Poll. Ohio State has a couple of softies – at Minnesota and vs. Indiana – before wrapping up the year against rival Michigan, which would love to spoil OSU’s postseason dreams.

The Buckeyes are ripe for a letdown when they come to TCF Bank Stadium, which needs an army of snow shovelers at $10 an hour to dig itself out before Saturday. Ohio State isn’t just facing a 7-2 Golden Gophers squad but freezing temperatures, howling winds and a chance of more snow by the 12 noon ET kickoff. Rumor has it, OSU is borrowing heaters from the Minnesota Vikings. This isn't going over well with the local media in the Twin Cities.

Lookahead spot

The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will be dreaming of sunny beaches, warm ocean breezes and tropical palm trees when they visit the BYU Cougars in Provo Saturday. The Rebels, at 2-8 SU and riding a three-game losing skid into Week 12, haven’t had much to look forward to this season. However, UNLV will be looking past the Cougars and to an upcoming trip to Hawaii – a much-needed vacation after taking it on the chin each week.

To add to this lookahead spot, the Runnin’ Rebels could be dubbed the “Runnin’ Noses” with temperatures in Provo forecasted to dip below freezing. The extended forecast is calling for the mercury to dip into the 20s with a chance of showers adding to the icy temperatures. The last time UNLV made a trip to the islands, it laid an egg the week before, losing 28-23 as a 1-point home underdog to 4-7 Wyoming in 2012.

Schedule spot

The Golden State Warriors play one of the most frantic paces in the entire NBA. But, even they get tired at times. Golden State currently ranks tops in the league in offensive pace – points per 100 possessions – at 102.6. The Warriors are faced with a busy slate of games this week, kicking off Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets at home Thursday.

The Warriors already had two tough games this week, losing to Houston and Phoenix, and follow the Thursday home date with back-to-back games Saturday and Sunday. Golden State meets a physical Charlotte team at home Friday then visits the Los Angeles Lakers, who are out for revenge Sunday after falling to the Warriors 127-104 in the opening game of the season.