The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Don't bide your time when it comes to betting Bills

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)

By the time we get into the holiday season it’s likely that lack of depth will have brought the Bills down to earth, but for right now it’s time to enjoy the ride. The 2-0 Bills are alone in first place in the AFC East and are slight favorites at home when the Chargers travel 3,000 miles East for what amounts to a 10 a.m. kickoff for San Diego this Sunday.

Buffalo has to love the way the season has unfolded, with QB EJ Manuel doing nothing to disrupt an offense which has turned the ball over only once in eight-plus (overtime in Week 1) quarters. Buffalo can flat out run the ball behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and Sammy Watkins (eight catches for 117 yards and a TD against Miami in Week 2) is frightening good.

With a new deep-pockets owner ready to take over, things are looking up for the first time in a long time in Western New York. This one is set up for the Bills to win.


Spread to wait on

Houston Texans (-2.5) at New York Giants

Who would have thought it would come to this – the Giants underdogs at home to a team that was the worst in the league last season?

That’s where the G-Men find themselves after submitting two turkeys in a row to start the year. Fingers are being pointed at orchestra conductors Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning, and another bad game at home could make things very ugly, very fast in East Rutherford.

Early wagers have hopped on Houston and if the number sticks at 2.5 for another day, it could move to a field goal by midweek. So, if you like New York to get things turned around, hang on a bit and see if you can get the significant half point.


Total to watch

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (52)

Everyone is 1-1 in the wide-open NFC North, and the only thing for certain is that the Packers defense doesn’t appear to be able to stop anyone.

Both Green Bay games have gone Over despite the fact that the offense hasn’t kicked it into second gear yet. The inability to run the ball (no Green Bay running back has more than 43 yards in a game this year) has puts some pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions’ D-Line will only make matters worse.

Bettors should take a good hard look at the Over in this game as the Packers spend the week trying to mend their defense.

[StarDust Bum]

How Week 2's rash of big-name injuries impacts NFL Week 3 odds

Week 2 of the NFL schedule was like a season finale of The Walking Dead, with notable names dropping like flies.

Big-time stars like Robert Griffin III, Jamaal Charles and A.J. Green all went down with injuries, and a bevy of supporting standouts joined them on the sidelines. We asked oddsmakers to peg these players with a value to the spread and see how much impact their absences could have on Week 3’s lines:

Robert Griffin III, QB Washington Redskins

Injury: Dislocated ankle (indefinitely)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

The good news is that Robert Griffin III’s ankle isn’t broken, but there’s no timetable set for his return. Books value RG3 at just under a field goal to the Redskins’ spreads, but is this too much? Backup Kirk Cousins started three games last season and nearly played his way into the starting job this preseason. Many Washington fans could be secretly smiling with Griffin on the shelf and Cousins – 250 yards, two TDs in Week 2 – under center.

This week: N/A at Philadelphia


DeSean Jackson, WR Washington Redskins

Injury: Sprained shoulder (day-to-day)
Spread value: .5 point

Books have a tough time putting a spread value on Jackson since he’s only played five quarters for the Redskins, and the team just lost its starting quarterback. Jackson had one catch for 109 yards before going down, and managed 62 yards on eight catches in his Washington debut in Week 1.

This week: N/A at Philadelphia


A.J. Green, WR Cincinnati Bengals

Injury: Strained foot (day-to-day)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

Green is one of the top receivers in the league, reeling in 131 yards and a score in Cincinnati’s Week 1 win over Baltimore. The Bengals were able to absorb his early loss against the Falcons’ cruddy defense, getting some extra receiving yards out of dynamic RB Giovanni Bernard, who tacked 79 yards through the air onto 90 yards on the ground. They may not need much of Green against the Titans in Week 3.

This week: -6.5 vs. Tennessee


Knowshon Moreno, RB Miami Dolphins

Injury: Dislocated elbow (indefinitely)
Spread value: 1 point

Moreno was on his way to proving doubters wrong before his Week 2 injury. The former Broncos RB, who benefited greatly from Peyton Manning, put up 134 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 1 versus New England, showing that he’s not just a byproduct of Manning’s greatness. Miami got just 80 yards total rushing in the loss to Buffalo Sunday, running the ball 21 times while throwing 49 pass attempts.

This week: -4 vs. Kansas City


Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City Chiefs

Injury: Sprained ankle (day-to-day)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

The Fantasy Football Gods have not been kind to those who scooped up Charles with their first-round selection. The Chiefs RB has produced just 4.6 points – which translates to 23 yards both rushing and receiving in two games before suffering a high ankle sprain early into Week 2’s loss to Denver. And to throw salt in the wound, his replacement – Knile Davis – scored twice for Kansas City Sunday. Do fantasy owners even want Charles back this week against the Dolphins?

This week: +4 at Miami


Ryan Mathews, RB San Diego Chargers

Injury: Sprained MCL
Spread value: 1 point

Mathews was hoping for a breakout year but was carted off the field with a knee injury Sunday, leaving his status in doubt for the coming weeks. He had 40 yards and a score on the ground in Week 1 and compiled 31 yards on 11 attempts before going down Sunday. Books aren’t discounting San Diego that much without him with Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead providing a solid punch in the backfield.

This week: +1 at Buffalo


Eric Berry, S Kansas City Chiefs

Injury: Foot (day-to-day)
Spread value: 1 to 1.5 points

Books recognize Berry as one of the top defensive players in the NFL and aren’t shy about tabbing him with a lofty spread value – admitting that he may be worth even more than expected. Berry was obviously on the plus side of that estimated worth against Denver Sunday before leaving with a foot injury in the second quarter. Kansas City faces Miami in Week 3, which isn’t the most potent pass attack. However, with injuries to their rushing corps, the Dolphins could look to air it out more and will attack a backup safety is Berry is unable to go.

This week: +4 at Miami


Mark Ingram, RB New Orleans Saints

Injury: Broken hand (four weeks)
Spread value: 0

Surprisingly, the NFL’s current leader in rushing touchdowns is worth jack squat to the Saints’ spreads. Ingram was emerging as a proven threat on the ground after a solid preseason and 143 yards and three scores in the first two weeks of the regular season. But, New Orleans has capable replacements in Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Rookie WR Brandin Cooks is even seeing some carries, in the same vein as Percy Harvin in Seattle.

This week: -9.5 vs. Minnesota


Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers

Injury: Ankle (day-to-day)
Spread value: 1 point

Davis is one the premier tight ends in the league, making him a huge loss for this struggling 49ers offense if he’s unable to go in Week 3. Davis was on crutches after suffering an ankle injury during Sunday night’s loss to Chicago. He left the game with about 10 minutes remaining, taking away Colin Kaepernick’s safety net. Davis had two touchdowns in Week 1 but only 83 yards in total. His backup, Derek Carrier, had three catches for 41 yards Sunday.

This week: N/A at Arizona

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Broncos 4.5-point dogs in Super Bowl rematch

Sometimes you have to take a close look at the NFL schedule to figure out which game is the marquee matchup. But there’s no such dilemma in Week 3.

Bettors and fans get a Super Bowl rematch when the Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to loud-and-proud Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (1-1 SU and ATS) on Sunday.

Seattle steamrolled Denver in last season’s title game, winning 43-8 as a 1.5-point underdog.

This time, though, the Seahawks are favored, with the line opening at -4.5. John Lester, the lines manager at Bookmaker.eu, doesn’t expect a rout this time, but he does expect a Seattle win, with the squad aiming to bounce back from a 30-21 loss at San Diego laying 4.5 points.

"It’s the marquee game of Week 3, and everyone will be running to bet on the Super Bowl rematch,” Lester said. “I don't see the outcome being much different this time around. It will certainly be a closer game, but the Seahawks are still the team to beat, despite last weekend’s setback. They don't lose in the Northwest, especially a game of this magnitude. They will be very focused after the loss, and sharps should be on Seattle at the open of -4.5."


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2)

The NFC North is a logjam, with all four teams at 1-1 SU. Green Bay (0-1-1 ATS) at least comes in with a little steam, rallying from a 21-3 deficit on the road against the New York Jets to snare 31-24 victory and push as a 7-point chalk.

Meanwhile, Detroit (1-1 ATS) followed its 35-point outburst in a season-opening win over the New York Giants by mustering just one score in a 24-7 loss at Carolina as a 1-point pup.

"These are two teams with potent offenses but some serious problems along the offensive lines,” Lester said. “I'm still not sold on the Green Bay defense, particularly the pass rush. The Lions should be able to win the battle in the trenches, and because of that, I give them a slight nod. Everyone expects a shootout, and we opened with a total of 52.”


San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) comes in unbeaten, while San Fran (1-1 SU and ATS) dumped the home opener at its luxurious new stadium, losing 28-20 to Chicago as a 7-point fave Sunday. But Lester isn’t too concerned about the Niners, nor too impressed with the Cardinals.

"The Cardinals were a Philip Rivers fumbled snap away from losing in Week 1, and they beat a pathetic Giants team (Sunday),” Lester said. “While I like their defense, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Like most over-hyped former USC quarterbacks in the NFL, I've never had much respect for Carson Palmer.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s him or Drew Stanton (starting), the Niners deserve to be chalk here."


Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Carolina has gotten out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS, rolling Detroit 24-7 Sunday as a 7-point favorite. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has scored just nine points since holding a 27-3 halftime lead over Cleveland in the season opener. The Steelers narrowly won that contest, 30-27, failing to cash as 5.5-point chalk, and they got ripped last Thursday at Baltimore 26-6 catching 2.5 points.

"I'm a little surprised at how efficient the Panthers have been offensively,” Lester said. “I thought they would struggle throwing the ball and protecting Cam Newton, but (offensive coordinator) Mike Shula has done a heck of a job with a lot of new faces so far. We opened at Panthers -3.5 to try and bait some Pittsburgh money, and I can see this eventually dropping to the key number.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL line watch: Don't bide your time when it comes to betting Bills

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)

By the time we get into the holiday season it’s likely that lack of depth will have brought the Bills down to earth, but for right now it’s time to enjoy the ride. The 2-0 Bills are alone in first place in the AFC East and are slight favorites at home when the Chargers travel 3,000 miles East for what amounts to a 10 a.m. kickoff for San Diego this Sunday.

Buffalo has to love the way the season has unfolded, with QB EJ Manuel doing nothing to disrupt an offense which has turned the ball over only once in eight-plus (overtime in Week 1) quarters. Buffalo can flat out run the ball behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and Sammy Watkins (eight catches for 117 yards and a TD against Miami in Week 2) is frightening good.

With a new deep-pockets owner ready to take over, things are looking up for the first time in a long time in Western New York. This one is set up for the Bills to win.


Spread to wait on

Houston Texans (-2.5) at New York Giants

Who would have thought it would come to this – the Giants underdogs at home to a team that was the worst in the league last season?

That’s where the G-Men find themselves after submitting two turkeys in a row to start the year. Fingers are being pointed at orchestra conductors Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning, and another bad game at home could make things very ugly, very fast in East Rutherford.

Early wagers have hopped on Houston and if the number sticks at 2.5 for another day, it could move to a field goal by midweek. So, if you like New York to get things turned around, hang on a bit and see if you can get the significant half point.


Total to watch

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (52)

Everyone is 1-1 in the wide-open NFC North, and the only thing for certain is that the Packers defense doesn’t appear to be able to stop anyone.

Both Green Bay games have gone Over despite the fact that the offense hasn’t kicked it into second gear yet. The inability to run the ball (no Green Bay running back has more than 43 yards in a game this year) has puts some pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions’ D-Line will only make matters worse.

Bettors should take a good hard look at the Over in this game as the Packers spend the week trying to mend their defense.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 18

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TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 9/18/2014, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 21

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 99-135 ATS (-49.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-122 ATS (+22.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-122 ATS (+25.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 0) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 22

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CHICAGO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 18

8:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tampa Bay


Sunday, September 21

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-8-1 SU in its last 10 games ,on the road
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. BUFFALO
San Diego is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
Green Bay is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CINCINNATI
Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games when playing at home against Denver
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CAROLINA
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh


Monday, September 22

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 3-4-2 ATS in their last 9 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday
Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1)-- Tampa Bay lost first two home games despite facing teams playing backup QBs; they're 9-13 in last 22 games as road dog- LSmith had 8-15-1 mark in his last 24 games as AU with Bears. Falcons are 23-14-1 as favorite at home under MSmith, 8-5-1 in division play. Teams split season series last three years, after Falcons had won five in row before that; Bucs lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses here by 6+ points. There were 149 first downs via penalty in Weeks 1-2; Bucs were only team not to allow one, but they also have only one takeaway (-3), unusual for a Lovie-coached team. Atlanta has five TDs, all on drives of 77+ yards; defense has one takeaway, not creating short field.

Friday
Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0)-- Buffalo is +4 in turnovers; they won field position by 14-22 yards, thats why they're 2-0. Bills are 7-2 vs spread at home under Marrone, 1-1 when favored- they're 6-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers hung 30 points on Seattle last week, after blowing second half lead in Arizona week before; Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 2-7 in last nine games on artificial turf. San Diego won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 37-10 at home in '11. Chargers are just 4-9-1 in game following their last 14 wins. Bills are only team not to gain a first down via penalty this season- there have been 149 such first downs in two weeks of play.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 3

September 16, 2014


Thursday, Sept. 18

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA ...Bucs 2-5 as road dog LY and 3-7 last 10 in role. Falcs 20-12 as home chalk since 2009. Falcons, based on team trends.


Sunday, Sept. 21

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN DIEGO at BUFFALO...Bills 8-2 vs. line last 10 at Orchard Park, but Bolts 6-2 last 8 overall vs. line since late 2013. Chargers "under" 8-3 last 11 away. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

DALLAS at ST. LOUIS...Rams "under" seven straight since late 2013. If Cowboys chalk note 5-12 mark in role since 2012. -"Under" and slight to Rams, if dog, based on "totals" and team trends.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA...Skins 1-6 last seven as road dog. Also "under" 6-3 last nine on board. Eagles and slight to "under," based on Skins' trends.

HOUSTON at NY GIANTS...G-Men "under" 26-13-2 since late 2011. But 0-6 vs. line in first four games of season since LY. Houston 2-0 SU and vs. line for O’Brien. "Under" and Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.

MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS...Saints 7-0-1 as home chalk LY, 16-0-1 in role since 2011 with Sean Payton as coach (not counting 2012). Vikes "over" '13-6 last 19 on board. Saints and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI...Titans 6-2-1 vs. line away since 2013. Bengals only 7-15-1 as home chalk since 2009, also "over" 6-3 at last 9 at home reg. season. Titans and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND..."Unders" 6-0-1 last seven in series. Ravens 5-8 last 13 as road chalk. "Under," based on series "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at DETROIT...Lions had lost and failed to cover five straight vs. GB before beating Rodgers-less Pack 40-10 last Thanksgiving. GB had covered previous five meetings. Lions "over" 7-3 last ten at home, and 6-3 vs. spread last nine at Ford Field. Pack 3-7 vs. line last ten away, also "over" last four on road. Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE...Colts have won and covered last three meetings. Last six also "under" in series. Jags only 3-12-1 as home dog since 2012. Indy 4-1-1 as road chalk since 2012. Colts and "under," based on team and series trends.

OAKLAND at NEW ENGLAND...Pats "over" 27-11 last 38 at Gillette Stadium. Belichick 12-7 last 19 as home chalk. "Over" and Patriots, based on Belichick trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA...Harbaugh 5-1 SU vs. Cards since 2011 and has covered 3 of last 4 in series, including last 2 at Glendale. SF 36-16-5 vs. spread for Harbaugh since 2011 and 13-6-1 vs. spread last 20 on road. Big Red 12-5-1 vs. line for Arians since 2013. 49ers, based on Harbaugh trends.

DENVER at SEATTLE...Hawks 14-5 vs. line last 19 at Century Link Field, and of course routed Broncos in the last Super. Broncos 0-3 as dog since 2012, also "over" 23-14-1 same span. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.

KANSAS CITY at MIAMI...Chiefs 2-8 SU last nine since late 2013 and 4-9 vs/ line last 13 on board. Although KC 8-1 vs. spread away in reg. season since 2013. Miami now 9-3-1 vs. points last 13 at home. Dolphins, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at CAROLINA...Steel now 2-12 vs. spread in first four games of season since 2011. Panthers 7-0-1 last 7 as home chalk, also "under" 14-5 since 2013. Panthers and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Monday, Sept. 22

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CHICAGO at NY JETS ...If Bears dog note 3-6-1 mark in role on road since 2012. Chicago "over" 9-2 last eleven away. Jets 6-3 vs. spread last 9 as host. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats - Week 3

September 17, 2014


Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

The dust has settled on Week 2 of the NFL season and with we find no less than three unbeaten teams that failed to make the playoffs last season – Arizona, Buffalo and Houston - along with three winless teams who participated in the postseason last year - Indianapolis, Kansas City and New Orleans.

Let’s go inside the stats and analyze the numbers you won’t find on the scoreboard. Remember, all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, September 15th unless noted otherwise.

Apples to Apples

With three games under the belt for most college football teams, here are the leading offensive and defensive stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of two game results. No FCS stats are used.

Best Offenses Yards Per Game
Nebraska 673, Baylor 622, Western Kentucky 606

Worst Offenses Yards Per Game
Wake Forest 163, Eastern Michigan 171, SMU 171

Best Defenses Yards Per Game
LSU 206, Baylor 231, Stanford 249

Worst Defenses Yards Per Game
UNLV 702, Bowling Green 641, Fresno State 600

Inside the Stats

Football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

That being said, here are the teams who won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

NCAA: Middle Tennessee State.
NFL: Chicago Bears

These are the teams who lost ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

NCAA: Colorado.
NFL: San Francisco 49ers.

In addition, here are the games this week involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win, with the phony loser listed first.

NCAA: None
NFL: Houston-NY Giants and Arizona Cardinals-San Francisco 49ers.

It’s What’s Trending

Here are the hottest trends on this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- The Atlanta Falcons are 8-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 5-0 in division games.

-- The Buffalo Bills are 2-22 ATS in games after defeating the Miami Dolphins.

-- The New England Patriots are 2-13 ATS in their last fifteen roles as double-digit favorites.

-- Since returning as an expansion team in 1999 the Cleveland Browns are 12-2-1 ATS in their 2nd home game of the season.

Stat of The Week

The Seattle Seahawks are 18-1 SU at home with QB Russell Wilson. The Denver Broncos are 3-30 ATS in their last thirty-three SU losses as an underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Bucs look for first victory

September 17, 2014


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Atlanta -6.5, Total: 45

The Buccaneers look to avoid an 0-3 start when they head to Georgia Dome on Thursday night to take on the Falcons.

Tampa Bay had a home matchup with the Rams on Sunday, but was unable to come away with a much-needed victory early in the season. The Bucs lost 19-17 despite being 4.5-point home favorites, and have now lost five straight games (SU and ATS) dating to last season. The Falcons, on the other hand, were 5.5-point underdogs in Cincinnati and were blown out 24-10 in a game where both their offense and defense really struggled.

Atlanta will need to capitalize on the mistakes of Tampa Bay QB Josh McCown, who has already thrown three interceptions this season. The Buccaneers, however, will likely try to slow this game down, as they know they have no chance of beating the Falcons in a fast-paced shootout.

These clubs have split the season series in each of the past three years, and while Atlanta is 5-1 SU in the past six home meetings in this series, Tampa Bay is 10-4 ATS in its past 14 visits to Georgia Dome. Mike Smith is 9-2 ATS in September home games as the coach of the Falcons, and he is also 13-4 ATS after a double-digit loss by 10.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 11 Falcons home games.

The Bucs could be without some key defensive players in this game with DT Gerald McCoy (hand), LB Mason Foster (shoulder), S Bradley McDougald and DE Michael Johnson (ankle) all questionable, but the good news is that star RB Doug Martin (knee) is expected to return after a one-game absence. Falcons stud OT Jake Matthews (ankle) has been upgraded to probable, as have starting WRs Roddy White (hamstring) and Julio Jones (ankle).

The Buccaneers have had a very disappointing start to their season. They first lost to a Cam Newton-less Panthers team and were then unable to defeat a Rams squad that was starting third-stringer Austin Davis at quarterback. QB Josh McCown has been the victim of playing behind a shaky offensive line. He’s been sacked only four times, but has had little time to get rid of the ball and it’s showing. McCown was 16-of-21 for 179 yards and an interception in the loss to St. Louis, but did rush for two touchdowns.

RB Bobby Rainey started in place of the injured RB Doug Martin and performed extremely well, carrying the football 22 times for 144 yards while also catching three passes for 30 yards. Regardless of whether or not Martin returns in Week 3, Rainey has earned himself more touches with last week's performance, but Martin is still the main ball carrier who has loved visiting Georgia Dome with 189 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC in his two visits to Atlanta. Tampa Bay must get the running game going against the Falcons, as the club is coming off a game in which it allowed 170 yards on the ground to the Bengals.

The Bucs, however, will have trouble against Matt Ryan’s offense. Tampa Bay has allowed 220.5 yards per game through the air this season, but that was against Derek Anderson and Austin Davis. Now they face a legitimate passer and will have to do a better job of covering receivers.

The Falcons went into Cincinnati in Week 2 and came away with a disappointing loss. The defense for this team has already struggled, allowing 317.5 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL) and 154.5 YPG on the ground this year. Following up a 448-yard and three-touchdown performance against the Saints, QB Matt Ryan was horrendous against the Bengals, going 24-of-44 for 231 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.

Luckily he’ll get to face a Tampa Bay defense that made Austin Davis look like a legitimate NFL starter, and Ryan has had plenty of success in this series, going 8-4 SU (but 4-7-1 ATS), including a 5-1 SU mark at home. In the past four home starts versus Tampa Bay, Ryan has completed 68% of his passes for 213 YPG, 7 TD and 0 INT.

WR Julio Jones should have no trouble getting open as he is capable of doing so against any team in the league, and has done so many times versus Tampa Bay. In four career meetings in this divisional matchup, he has 394 receiving yards and 3 TD, and Jones caught seven passes for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.

Atlanta would be wise to get its running backs more involved in the offensive game plan. RB Steven Jackson is the main ball carrier, but has just 23 rushes for 98 yards in two games. If the Falcons can make opponents respect their running game more, it will open up the field for Ryan to make more plays.

The Tampa Bay defense has had issues this season, but if the Falcons are too predictable, they’ll pay for it.

[StarDust Bum]

Buccaneers at Falcons

September 17, 2014

The Falcons and Buccaneers usually play close games when they get together as Atlanta is listed as a favorite for the first time this season, while Tampa Bay is receiving points for the first time in three games. Atlanta can move to 2-0 in the division with a victory after knocking off New Orleans in overtime back in Week 1 as a three-point home underdog, but the Falcons need to bounce back after falling behind early in last week’s loss at Cincinnati.

The defense has been lit up through two weeks, as the Falcons gave up 472 yards in a 24-10 defeat to the Bengals as five-point ‘dogs, one game after allowing 472 yards in a 33-30 triumph over New Orleans. Atlanta’s lone touchdown at Cincinnati came in the fourth quarter trailing, 24-3, while Matt Ryan tossed three interceptions in the defeat. The Falcons dropped to 3-6 ATS since the start of last season as a road underdog, while winning just once in this span with an overtime victory over the Bills in Toronto.

Tampa Bay’s offense has put up just 31 points in two home losses to Carolina and St. Louis. The Bucs did limit these two teams to a combined 39 points, but they did face backup quarterbacks Derek Anderson and rookie Austin Davis. In last week’s 19-17 home setback to the Rams, Tampa Bay limited St. Louis to just one touchdown and four field goals, but the final field goal by Greg Zuerlein with 38 second left dropped Tampa Bay to 0-2. The Bucs cashed the ‘under’ of 37 ½, but failed to cover as four-point favorites.

Atlanta has won seven of the past 10 meetings with Tampa Bay, but three of those games came in Week 17 of relatively meaningless action. Last season, the Falcons managed a cover as six-point home favorites in a 31-23 victory, even though Atlanta rushed 18 times for only 18 yards. Since Mike Smith took over as head coach of the Falcons in 2008, Atlanta owns a 2-4 ATS record at home against Tampa Bay.

In the second meeting in 2013, the Bucs blew out the Falcons, 41-28 as two-point home favorites. Bobby Rainey ran all over the Atlanta defense for 163 yards and two touchdowns, filling in for the injured Doug Martin. The Falcons couldn’t slow down Vincent Jackson, who hauled in 165 yards receiving, as the Tampa Bay receiver picked up 138 yards and two scores in the first meeting at the Georgia Dome.

Now the Falcons are back in the favorite role, this team is just 6-8 ATS the last two seasons when laying points at the Georgia Dome. In this span, Atlanta owns a 5-2 ATS record at home against division foes, but the last three covers all came in the underdog role. Tampa Bay dropped seven of eight games away from Raymond James Stadium last season, while covering just twice, which includes as a 16 ½-point underdog at Seattle in a three-point setback.

In Lovie Smith’s final two seasons in Chicago (2011-12), the head coach put together a 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS record as a road underdog. Smith is in this role for the first time this season, as the Buccaneers have dropped nine straight September games since 2012, while covering just three times in this span.

The Bucs hope to get Martin back this week to strengthen the running back position after he missed last week’s loss with a knee injury. Rainey took care of business against the Rams with 144 yards rushing in Martin’s place and has already proven he can rip through the Falcons’ defense with his home performance last season. Roddy White didn’t practice on Tuesday for the Falcons after suffering a hamstring injury at Cincinnati, but the Falcons’ standout receiver is listed as probable for Thursday.

The Falcons are listed as 6 ½-point home favorites, as that number could be bumped up to seven by Thursday night. The total is set between 44 ½ and 45 depending on where you shop as that number has stayed pretty constant the whole week. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 3 Look-Ahead

September 17, 2014

Monday night's frantic Eagles comeback provided a fitting ending to Week 2.

Like many of its predecessors thus far in the 2014 NFL season, it defied logic.

Yet again, a team with a double-digit second-half lead couldn't hold it. Injuries were rampant, but didn't affect the outcome despite reason dictating they probably would. Another underdog won outright, making them the 15th to do so among the first 32 games. Dogs are 19-12-1 ATS thus far entering Thursday night's game between Tampa Bay and Atlanta, giving us plenty to consider entering Week 3 beyond the interesting array of 2-0 teams.

New Orleans and Indianapolis, sleeper Super Bowl contenders depending on who you talked to preseason, are 0-2.

Defending champion Seattle leads a pack of 18 teams at 1-1 of all shapes and sizes.

Is it parity? Or insanity?

After watching Philadelphia tie the Monday nighter at 27-27, the Colts opted to run twice despite Mychal Kendricks being sidelined, then saw Andrew Luck fail to deliver a catchable ball in the face of pressure. Beyond the questionable officiating, Indianapolis melted down at home with its performance and decision-making. Underdog wins.

Sunday night delivered Chicago's comeback from a 17-0 second-quarter deficit in San Francisco. You know, the game where Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery went from being considered doubtful to play in the morning to hours later, combining for eight catches, 95 yards and Marshall's three stunning touchdowns. Somehow, despite losing Peanut Tillman for the season and Chris Conte for the game, the secondary held up and changed the game. Down two starters, the offensive line held up against 49ers pressure, giving Jay Cutler time to work.

17-0.

Mike Ditka texted Marc Trestman and called it one of the most enjoyable Bears wins he's seen in decades.

So, yeah, there's a level of insanity to all that has transpired to date, almost as if the play is attempting to play catch-up to the off-field chaos.

Judging by pre-game line moves, sharps loved Minnesota in spite of Adrian Peterson's absence and fell flat on their collective face. Thanks to Drew Brees throwing a pick-six and Rob Ryan failing to get his defense properly lined up in another critical two-minute drill, the Saints lost to a Browns team that is perfect in covering thus far. A Dolphins team that looked fantastic in trouncing New England 23-0 during Week 1's second half was outscored 20-10. Did Knowshon Moreno make that big a difference?

The sample size is small. That's one truth we can cling to entering Week 3.

It applies everywhere. It's the answer to whether Cleveland's Brian Football, owner of 118.1 passer rating when working no-huddle, is really a Heisman hopeful. Or whether the defense in Carolina and Arizona is really good enough to carry their teams. Thus far, they've managed to win in spite of QB platoons where neither guy was overwhelming. Andy Dalton has been good, but it's been the Bengals defense that has done the heavy lifting. That could remain a constant if A.J. Green's toe injury becomes a season long issue.

Buffalo's heavily scrutinized ex-quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and its current version, E.J. Manuel, are 2-0, too. The Texans and Bills went a combined 8-24 last season.

Nick Foles is undefeated. He hasn't played well and his receivers have done him no favors, but he's won and covered despite double-digit second-half deficits in each of the first two weeks. That's unprecedented.

Are the Eagles going to put up a gaudy win-loss mark as the passing game improves or is the inaccurate passing and drops epidemic set to catch up to them?

We're going to start finding out. For now, though, Darren Sproles has been league MVP.

Nope, haven't forgotten about Peyton Manning, but the fact is, he's not paying the bills. Back-doored by Luck in the opener and inexplicably failing to cover against injury-plagued Kansas City, there is some truth to the Broncos easing into the season without key figures like Wes Welker and Danny Trevathan.

How else do you explain the Chiefs game? Already down Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito, Kansas City lost safety Eric Berry and star back Jamaal Charles in the first half, they outscored the disinterested Broncos 7-3 the rest of the way. Week for all those second-half tickets lost.

A summit meeting with Seattle won't see Denver pull any punches, so we'll see where exactly a team labeling itself as hungrier than ever truly stands. Avoiding its first two-game losing streak since October 2012 is sure to offset the feeling that Seattle would be indifferent to this Super Bowl rematch, as was clearly the case this preseason.

Other key tests in Week 3 feature the Bills answering more question against the Chargers, potentially due a letdown traveling cross-country following an emotional win. The Ravens look to continue moving on from the Ray Rice fiasco in already hostile Cleveland, while the Vikings go on the road to New Orleans minus Peterson.

The Saints are double-digit favorites against Minnesota, but given those aforementioned defensive issues and Marques Colston coming off a game where he was virtually ignored, there will probably be a market for those willing to back the Vikes resilience.

The Texans could be 3-0 if they doom the Giants to an 0-3 start, which is certainly possible given how ragged Tom Coughlin's group has looked.

Arizona has a chance to stay perfect if backup Drew Stanton can protect the football at home against San Francisco, which arrives with similar aspirations for Colin Kaepernick. Tony Romo handed San Francisco its first win, but it's fair to say that Jim Harbaugh's team hasn't finished. Not drives, and certainly not fourth quarters, where It has been outscored 28-0.

Romo will be back on the road at St. Louis, looking to help his team take another step forward, while NFC East cohorts Washington and Philadelphia square off in a city unlikely to have much love for DeSean Jackson. Sunday night's showcase sees Pittsburgh at Carolina as the Panthers try and duplicate Baltimore's defensive effort that opened Week 2 with a 26-6 rout. There are certainly easier venues and defenses for Ben Roethlisberger to try and rediscover his rhythm against, but the Steelers may have new weapons Lance Moore, Dri Archer and Martavis Bryant in play if they're medically cleared.

On Monday night, we'll get a chance to see if there's going to be a Kyle Fuller factor, as the Bears rookie corner has shown signs of being special and will square off with Geno Smith, who has turned it over in each of the first two games despite showing a much better grasp of the Jets offense. New York seems to have an edge with its stout run defense against a Bears attack that hasn't been able to get the Matt Forte-led ground game going.

There can be no promises other than a larger sample size to draw upon next week, but the NFL does have a terrific slate of games to help offset the off-field drama and remind us why we put up with all the nasty distractions.

We love the on-field drama, even when we hate it, and it's certainly delivered an inordinate amount of twists through the season's first two weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Buccaneers head to Atlanta on Thursday night to face a Falcons team that is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Game 301-302: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.604; Atlanta 133.983
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

Game 451-452: San Diego at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 137.307; Buffalo 136.513
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Over

Game 453-454: Dallas at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.626; St. Louis 129.051
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-1 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Washington at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.664; Philadelphia 133.025
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Houston at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 127.949; NY Giants 134.441
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 459-460: Minnesota at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.850; New Orleans 139.351
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: Tennessee at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.195; Cincinnati 134.636
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7); Over

Game 463-464: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.833; Cleveland 131.210
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-1 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.296; Detroit 131.573
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 132.315; Jacksonville 120.903
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Oakland at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.591; New England 136.268
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+14 1/2); Under

Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 135.650; Arizona 130.782
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5; 47
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-2 1/2); Over

Game 473-474: Denver at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.616; Seattle 143.283
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4 1/2); Under

Game 475-476: Kansas City at Miami (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.641; Miami 131.426
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 4 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4 1/2); Under

Game 477-478: Pittsburgh at Carolina (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 133.371; Carolina 132.532
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

Game 479-480: Chicago at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.597; NY Jets 135.009
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 18

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 8:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 9-6 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders
Atlanta: 28-13 OVER off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more


Sunday, Sept. 21st

San Diego at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 56-36 as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Buffalo: 8-23 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival

Dallas at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 12-27 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
St Louis: 12-26 ATS against NFC East division opponents

Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Washington: 37-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Philadelphia: 4-13 ATS in home lined games

Houston at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Houston: 16-6 OVER in road games in September
NY Giants: 0-6 in September games

Minnesota at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 51-26 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
New Orleans: 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents

Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 15-5 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
Cincinnati: 7-0 after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 59-38 UNDER (+17.2 Units) off a home win
Cleveland: 21-37 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 OVER in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Detroit: 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 19-8 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games

Oakland at New England, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 4-13 after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games
New England: 10-2 off 1 or more consecutive unders

San Franciso at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 14-17 UNDER against conference opponents
Arizona: 1-6 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points

Denver at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Denver: 47-26 OVER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Seattle: 14-5 ATS in home lined games

Kansas City at Miami, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 14-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents
Miami: 158-111 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest

Pittsburgh at Carolina, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS in the first month of the season
Carolina: 17-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better


Monday, Sept. 22st

Chicago at NY Jets, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 13-4 OVER in road lined games
NY Jets: 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, September 18

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Buccaneers at Falcons
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 44.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the season with a pair of narrow home losses and now face the prospect of playing the next three on the road, beginning with Thursday night's matchup against the NFC South-rival Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers are trying to avoid a repeat of last season's disastrous campaign, when they opened with eight straight setbacks. "It's trying to take a deep breath, see the big picture," quarterback Josh McCown said. "We want to win right now."

Tampa Bay's injury-riddled defense will have to find a way to contain Matt Ryan and Atlanta's potent offense, which rolled up 37 points in a season-opening win versus New Orleans before coming back to earth in last week's 24-10 loss at Cincinnati. "When you turn the ball over three times, you're not going to win," Ryan said. "I have to be better." The Falcons, who went 4-12 last season and wound up tied with the Buccaneers for last place in the division, have split the past six meetings against Tampa Bay.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 5.5-point home favorites and were bet as high as -7, before settling back down at -6. The total has held steady at 44.5 points.

INJURY REPORT: Tampa Bay - RB Doug Martin (questionable Thursday, knee), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkis (questionable Thursday, ankle), DE Michael Johnson (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT Gerald McCoy (out Thursday, hand). Atlanta - WR Roddy White (questionable Thursday, hamstring), OT Jake Matthews (questionable Thursday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+4.25) - Atlanta (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons (-8.75)

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Tampa Bay has been decimated by injuries and is expected to be without two more starters on defense after Pro Bowl tackle Gerald McCoy (broken hand) and middle linebacker Mason Foster (dislocated shoulder) were hurt last week. Starting running back Doug Martin returned to practice Tuesday after missing Sunday's game with a knee injury, but backup Bobby Rainey rushed for 144 yards in his absence. The passing game ranks 31st in the league and has yet to click under McCown, who has three interceptions versus two TDs and is averaging 181 yards per contest. The Buccaneers will be hard-pressed to slow down Ryan and company after facing a pair of lightweight passing attacks in the first two weeks.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Ryan tossed three scoring passes and set a franchise record with 448 yards passing in a come-from-behind win over New Orleans, but he was picked off three times and failed go get the ball in the end zone until the fourth quarter at Cincinnati. Julio Jones appears fully recovered from the foot injury that cut short his 2013 season, snatching 14 receptions for 204 yards and a TD, but fellow wideout Roddy White missed practice on Tuesday due to a hamstring injury to put his availability in doubt. While Steven Jackson has rushed for only 98 yards in the first two contests, a more pressing concern is a defense that ranks dead last in the league - allowing an average total of 472 yards.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four Thursday night games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last four home games versus a team with a losing road record.

CONSENSUS: A big 69 percent of wagers are backing the Falcons at -6 in this division showdown.