The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................0 - 0

DOUBLE PLAYS................................2- 0

TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................5 - 7

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................11 - 8

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................4 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................4 - 0


Rated and overall Opinon Plays

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/18/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
09/15/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail
09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 38-*28-*0 57.58% +3600

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0)-- Buffalo is +4 in turnovers; they won field position by 14-22 yards, thats why they're 2-0. Bills are 7-2 vs spread at home under Marrone, 1-1 when favored- they're 6-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers hung 30 points on Seattle last week, after blowing second half lead in Arizona week before; Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 2-7 in last nine games on artificial turf. San Diego won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 37-10 at home in '11. Chargers are just 4-9-1 in game following their last 14 wins. Bills are only team not to gain a first down via penalty this season- there have been 149 such first downs in two weeks of play.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)— Tampa Bay’s Rainey ran for 144 yards vs Rams last week, with Bucs having little passing threat; St Louis will have to do better vs explosive Murray and Romo’s passing—Dallas ran for 220 yards in decisive win at Tennessee last week, but Cowboys are just 10-19 vs spread in game following last 29 wins, 11-15-1 in games where spread was 3 or less (Rams are 6-4 in such games under Fisher). Pokes are 3-7-1 as road favorites in Garrett era. 3rd-string QB (not anymore) Davis led road win in first NFL start at Tampa. Home side won last four series games; Dallas split two visits here, last of which was in ’08-- Rams lost 34-7/31-7 in last two games with Dallas, in ‘11/’13. Former Ram head coach Linehan is play-caller for Dallas; he is a better play caller than he was a head coach.

Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0)—Iggles are first-ever NFL team to start season 2-0 when they trailed both games by 14+ points in second half; they’ve been held without TD in first half of six of last 12 games, but scored 3+ TDs in second half in last four of those- they’ve won seven of last 10 games with Redskins, but Washington is 4-3 in last seven visits here. Cousins started last three games LY, so this isn’t new for him; he was 22-33/250 with two TDs in relief of RGIII in last week’s easy win—he’s moving up in class here. Skins covered once in last seven games as road dog, failing to cover last four tries as road dog. Eagles are 4-4 as home favorite under Kelly, 10-17 in last 27 as HF overall; they’re 6-8 off a win, 5-5 under Kelly.

Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2)—Houston started out 2-0 LY, never won another game; Giants started 0-6, so sense of urgency for both sides here, though Big Blue’s leaky OL is source of great concern for immobile Manning. Texans allowed only three TDs in first two games; they’re 9-7-1 as road favorite since ’10, 14-10-1 off a win, but 6-12-3 vs NFC teams. Giants are 4-7 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they lost to Cardinal backup QB Stanton last week- they’re 5-12-1 in games vs AFC foes. Giants won two of three in seldom-played series; Texans lost 14-10 in only visit here (’06). Giants are 4-5-1 in last ten games as home underdog, 4-6 in game following their last ten losses.

Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)—Peterson is out for Vikes here, as Zimmer is dealt cruel blow after waiting until age 58 for HC job. Minnesota is 10-5-1 vs spread off a loss, 12-9 in last 21 games as road dogs- they ran ball for only 54 yards last week, lost field position by 22 yards, in addition to getting FG blocked for TD. Cassel threw four picks last week, is headed into a hornet’s nest this week. NO in desperate straits here after losing first two games on road by total of five points, despite scoring 55 points; they’ve won five of last six home openers, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine. Saints are 18-3 as home favorites last three years, 20-6-1 vs spread in last 27 non-divisional home games. Seven of their last ten home openers stayed under total.

Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0)—Cincy looking like strong outfit after outgaining Atlanta by 163 yards with +3 turnover ratio in easy win, week after they pulled out divisional road win at Baltimore; Bengals won three of last four in series where road team won five of last seven meetings. Titans won six of last seven visits here, in what used to be divisional rivalry. Bengals covered last four tries as non-divisional home favorite, after being 7-21-1 in that role from ’04-’12; they’re 23-10 vs spread in game following their last 33 wins. Titans covered four of last six as road underdog, 11 of last 16 non-divisional road games- they’re 18-14-3 off a loss. Cincy will try to establish Bernard on ground after Dallas ran for 220 yards vs Titans last week.

Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)—Cleveland’s first two games were decided by total of five points; they’ve rallied to tie/take lead in both games-- their 24-18 win over Ravens in last meeting LY snapped 11-game series skid. Baltimore won five of last six visits here (their old home) with all five wins by 10+ points. Last 12 series games were all decided by 12+ points. Ravens lost 10 of last 13 road openers; they’re 5-10-1 vs spread on road last two years, 2-8 in last 10 road games SU. Hoyer is 4-1 as Browns’ starting QB; Cleveland put up 27-26 points vs two of better teams in NFL, though Saints have bad defense. Browns covered five of last seven divisional home games. Ravens are 7-11-1 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1)—Green Bay won 15 of last 17 games in this rivalry, and Rodgers didn’t play in either loss; Pack split last four visits here- they were down 21-3 at home to Jets last week, after losing opener at Seattle, but rallied to even record. Pack covered 17 of last 24 NFC North road games; they’re 8-9 SU in last 17 road games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games on artificial turf, 8-11 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 8-15-1 vs spread in game following its last 24 losses; they’re 6-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less, 8-4 in last 12 NFC North home games. Lions ran ball for only 76-70 yards in first two games. Pack lost field position by 14-6 yards in first two games; they have three 80+-yard TD drives.

Colts (0-2) @ Jaguars (0-2)—Jax has been outscored 75-10 in three halves since they led opener 17-0 at half in Philly; they’ve lost last three games with Indy by 17-24-20 points, after winning four of five vs Colts before that. Jags are 6-18-1 in last 25 games as home dog, are facing Colt squad that blew 20-6 3rd quarter lead Monday, after losing opener in Denver, so Indy is 0-2, but they played two of best three teams in NFL- now they’re playing one of worst. Indy won 27-10/37-3 in last two visits here; they’re 15-6-1 in last 22 games as a road favorite, 4-1-1 under Pagano. Over last six years, Colts are 13-4-1 as an AFC South road favorite. Jags lost five of last seven home openers, scoring total of 25 points in last three.

Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)—New England won 11 of last 12 home openers, but are 3-5 vs spread in last eight; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a non-divisional home favorite, but 1-7 in last eight games when laying double digits. Pats won last three games with Oakland by 10-23-12 points. Raiders are only team starting a rookie QB; they’re just 5-21 on 3rd down, and lost opener in Swamp with a +2 turnover ratio (NFL teams are 17-2 this year with a +2 or better TO ratio). Oakland is 8-6-1 in last 15 games as a non-divisional road dog, but covered only once in last five games as a double digit dog. Patriots have only six second half points in two games, but they had big lead at half last week and didn’t need to score after halftime.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)—Palmer’s arm is an issue; backup Stanton was 14-29/142 in win at Swamp last week, as Redbirds won despite being outgained by 75 yards- they were +4 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards. Arizona lost nine of last ten games with 49ers, losing last four, with three of four by 12+ points; Niners won four of last five visits here, with three of the five decided by 4 or less points. SF allowed six first downs via penalty last week; they’re just 5-7 vs spread in last 12 divisional road games, compared to 14-6-1 in last 21 non-division road tilts; they’re 19-6-4 vs spread in game following last 29 losses. Arizona is 4-7-1 in NFC West home games, 7-3-1 after last 11 wins, 7-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.

Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1)—Seattle crushed Broncs 43-8 in Super Bowl in February, are smarting after giving up 30 points in San Diego last week, with Bolts converting 10-17 on 3rd down. Seattle is 13-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 16-8-1 after a loss, 12-4 in non-divisional home games, 8-8-1 vs AFC teams. First road game for Denver squad that scored only 10 second half points in two home wins; Broncos won five of last seven visits here, are 4-6 in last ten road openers, but 4-2 as an underdog in road openers. Denver is 20-12-1 vs spread off a win under Fox, 4-3 as road dog under Fox. Last time they were a road dog was Week 5 of ’12. Denver is 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 games vs AFC teams. Curious to see if #18 goes after mouthy CB Sherman the way Chargers did.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolphins (1-1)—KC was 2-14 in 2012, then started out 9-0 LY; now they’re on 2-8 skid after going -3 in turnovers in 0-2 start this year, with no takeaways (-3). Chiefs are 3-1 as road dog under Reid- they covered last five divisional road games. Over last decade, Miami is 11-29 as home favorite, 4-5 under Philbin; they have covered seven of last ten non-divisional home games. Fish won last three series games by 3-7-28 points, but teams haven’t met in three years; Chiefs lost seven of last eight visits to South Beach, but last visit was in ’06. Will south Florida heat wilt a depleted (seven starters out) Chief team? Thru two weeks, non-divisional home favorites are 8-11 vs spread league-wide.

Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (2-0)—Since 2004, Steelers are 19-6 as an underdog of 3 or less points; second straight primetime road game for Pitt, which had three extra days to prep after Thursday loss in Baltimore. Steelers won last four games with Carolina since losing 18-14 here in ’96, with all four wins by 10+ points. Pitt is 21-18-1 vs spread after a loss (7-9 last two years), 10-6 in last 16 vs AFC teams. Panthers are 10-4-1 as home favorite under Rivera, 6-8-1 vs NFC teams, 10-4 off a win- they’re +6 in turnovers (+3 in both games) already, haven’t allowed a first half point. New Carolina receivers are doing fine; they averaged 6.3 yards/pass attempt at Tampa, 6.4 last week, with two different QBs playing.

Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)—Chicago lost at home to Buffalo, won at SF, hard team to figure; they’ve only run ball for 132 yards in two games, have only four plays of 20+ yards- with their WRs, they should have more of those. Bears are 3-12-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; they’ve won last three games with Jets by 7-10-4 points, are 3-1 vs Jets in Swamp, with average total 22.0 in those four games. Gang Green is 4-0-1 in last five vs NFC, 20-13 under Ryan when spread was 3 or less points- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 non-divisional home games. Jets ran ball for 146 yards at Lambeau, had 21-3 lead, but couldn’t hold it for 2-0 start- they’ve forced only one turnover (-2) this season, but do have three TD drives of 80+ yards.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, September 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Broncos at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos certainly won't lack for motivation when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday with a chance to avenge a humiliating beating in last season's Super Bowl. It's only the sixth time in league history that a Super Bowl rematch will occur in the following regular season and gives Denver an opportunity ease the pain of a 43-8 thrashing at the hands of Seattle. To do so, the Broncos must upend an opponent that is 16-1 in its last 17 at home.

The Seahawks' defense was the toast of the NFL after shutting down Manning and a high-powered attack that eclipsed the league record for points scored in a season, but Seattle did not look so invincible in last week's 30-21 setback at San Diego. Manning, who shattered NFL single-season marks for touchdown passes (55) and yards (5,477) in 2013, is off to another fast start with three touchdown passes in each of Denver's first two wins. Wide receiver Wes Welker makes his season debut for the Broncos after his four-game suspension was cut in half by the league.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened with the Seahawks -4.5, but that is now -5. The total has held at 48.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - WR Wes Welker (Probably, suspension), LB Lerentee McCray (Out, knee). Seahawks - TE Zach Miller (Questionable, ankle), RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable, back), RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-7.5) - Seahawks (-6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks (-1.75)

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low 80s with wind blowing from the west at 3 mph.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): While the revenge factor - “This is what we've been waiting for,” wideout Andre Caldwell said - cannot be overstated, Denver must figure out a way to keep its collective foot on the throttle after nearly blowing big halftime leads in home wins over Indianapolis and Kansas City. "We're still figuring out what our strengths are, what things we can improve on and what things we can eliminate," Manning said after the Broncos scored a combined 10 second-half points in their first two games. Newcomer Emmanuel Sanders (team-high 14 catches) has thrived in the absence of Welker while tight end Julius Thomas already has hauled in four scoring passes, but running back Montee Ball has rushed for only 127 yards and is averaging 3.6 per carry. Denver's retooled defense, featuring DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (300.5).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Although Seattle had no answer for tight end Antonio Gates in last week's loss, it is a different team playing at rowdy CenturyLink Stadium, as evidenced by a dominating 36-16 victory over Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in the season opener. "They're really loud, they're really raucous and they always have great energy," All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman said of the league's loudest venue. "It really gives us a chance to feed off their energy." Although quarterback Russell Wilson, who played flawlessly in the Super Bowl victory, has four TDs and is completing nearly 68 percent of his passes, the normally dominating defense gave him few chances by allowing San Diego to hold the ball for over 42 minutes. Wideout Percy Harvin has more yards rushing than receiving, but the key for Seattle is Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for only 36 yards on six carries last week.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games on fieldturf.
* Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games in September.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Week 3.

CONSENSUS: 56 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the visiting Broncos.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, September 21


Showers in Cleveland's forecast Sunday

The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North showdown, and the game get messy early on if current weather forecasts hold true.

Forecasts are calling for a 69 percent chance of thunderstorms before and during the game.

Furthermore, wind is forecast to blow toward the east endzone at roughly 15 mph.

The Browns are currently 1.5-point underdogs with a total of 41.5.


Rain, thunder could plague Chargers-Bills showdown

The unbeaten Buffalo Bills will host the San Diego Chargers from Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday, but rain and thunder could an appearance during the game.

According to forecasts, there is an 83 percent chance of thunderstorms leading up to and during the 1 p.m. kickoff.

Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the high-60s to low-70s and wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.


History bodes well for the Saints Sunday

According to a tweet from Football Perspective, the New Orleans Saints will be the seventh team since 1978 to begin an NFL season 0-2 straight up and be a double-digit fave in their third game of the season.

In those previous six games, the 0-2 clubs have won all six SU, but are 3-3 ATS.

Oddsmakers have tabbed the Saints as 10.5-point home favorites with the Minnesota Vikings in town.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 3 line moves

Now that we've moved on to the third week of the NFL season, oddsmakers and bettors are starting to get a better idea of where certain football teams stand. Underdogs were impressive in Week 1, posting an 11-5 record against the spread, and still have the edge heading into Sunday's action with a 19-13-1 mark at the betting window.

With that in mind, we talk to sportsbooks about the betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where they see the lines ending up come kickoff Sunday.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills - Open: Pick, Move: -2, Move: -2.5

In the wake of a tumultuous offseason, the Buffalo Bills have begun the season with great promise. With wins at the Chicago Bears and versus the Miami Dolphins, they've also started the season with a perfect 2-0 ATS record to satisfy faithful Bills backers.

The Chargers are coming off a big 31-20 home victory over the Seattle Seahawks, covering as 4.5-point home pups in the process.

But the journey to Buffalo, and a game that figures to be played in un-San Diego like conditions, has betters supporting the home squad.

"Early money sees trouble with the Chargers traveling cross country, but I expect some buy back due to the proximity to San Diego," says Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker with South Point Sportsbook. "This should close at -1.5."

"We opened the Bills -1 and took some sharp action on the Bills at that number which forced us to Bills -2.5 and now we are dealing Bills -2," says Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.

Houston Texans at New York Giants - Open: +2.5, Move: Pick, Move: -1.5

MetLife Stadium is the scene as the winless New York Giants host the unbeaten Houston Texans. A Texans' victory here and they'll have already surpassed their entire win total from last season.

The Giants have been dismal out of the gate and have been frustrating for their supporters, failing to cover as 6.5-point dogs at the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and as 1-point home favorites with the Arizona Cardinals in town one week ago.

"We opened the Texans -2.5 with the defense playing well but we've seen Giants money with bettors giving them another chance," Vaccaro says. "There's nothing significant here, but parlay card people are using the Texans on their tickets."


"We initially made the Giants a 2.5-point dog at home, but there's a growing sense among the gambling community that they're 'due'," John Lester, Senior Lines Manager for Bookmaker.eu told Covers. "Houston doesn't look like a 3-0 squad, but the Giants are bad. Tossup sounds about right."

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins - Open: -4.5, Move: -3.5

Books opened the Fish as 4.5-point home faves, but following a poor, unconvincing effort at Buffalo in Week 2 - after a big home win against the Patriots to begin the season - action has been on the visiting Chiefs.

The Chiefs are winless straight up, but showed a positive effort in Week 2, covering as 13-point dogs at the Denver Broncos.

"We opened the Fish as a 5-point favorite but have gone down to 3.5 has we are booking nothing but Chiefs action to the tune of 67 percent," Stewart said.

The Dolphins have had the upper hand in the win column and at the betting window in recent matchups, posting 3-0 SU and ATS records in the previous three meetings between the two AFC teams.

"We opened the Dolphins -4.5 and I think we opened too high," Vaccaro tells Covers. "The Dolphins took a beating from the Bills and the Chiefs were able to hang around with the Broncos last week. The Dolphins just look mediocre and I think this will close -3.5."

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -4.5, Move: -5, Move: -4.5

The marquee game of Week 3 pits last season's Super Bowl participants at CenturyLink Field as the Denver Broncos look for revenge against the Seattle Seahawks and the vaunted 12th Man.

Peyton Manning and Co. will look to eliminate the bad taste left from a 43-8 thumping in the Super Bowl.

Sharps backed the champs early, but it was the public that moved the spread back to its original number.

"Sharps took a small position with the Seahawks early in the week but the public has moved the spread back to the opener of -4.5," Lester says.

"We have been bouncing between Seahawks -5, -4.5 all week as the action has been fairly even with the Seahwaks getting 63 percent of the action up to this point," Stewart tells Covers.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3.5, Move: -3

Sunday's finale sees the Carolina Panthers hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on the Sunday Night Football national stage.

History is not on Carolina's side, however, as the Steelers take a perfect 5-0 ATS record into Back of America Stadium in the all-time series. The Steelers covered as 14-point home faves, winning 27-3 the last time these two met back in 2010.

"Opened this Carolina -3.5 with the Panthers playing harder than we thought," Vaccaro says. "We've opened this at the right number and we've seen minimal action, but the money so far is on the Steelers with parlay cards picking up the slack."

"We were looking for Pittsburgh money when we opened at -3.5 and we've gotten it," Lester confirms. "The spread will likely close at the current number and the total might get pushed a point higher being the Sunday night game."

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, September 21


Chargers playing to under vs. AFC

The San Diego Chargers will have to try follow up an impressive win over the defending Super Bowl champs last week, by flying across the country and taking on the Buffalo Bills in an early afternoon matchup trending towards the under.

The under is 11-2 in San Diego's last 13 games versus the AFC. Sunday's game against the Bills currently has a total sitting at 45.


Rams on impressive total streak

The St. Louis Rams have the perfect combination for an under run, a solid defense and a backup quarterback running the offense.

The Rams have gone under the game total in seven consecutive games.

St. Louis hosts the Dallas Cowboys Sunday where the total currently sits at 44.


Redskins have trouble covering after big wins

Washington rallied behind backup quarterback Kirk Cousins after Robert Griffin lll went down with another injury and thumped the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-10, unfortunately Washington has trouble riding that moment to another cover.

Washington is 0-6 against the spread in their last six games following a straight up win and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.

Washington visits Philadelphia Sunday, where the Eagles are currently 5.5-point home favorites.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, September 21


September a cruel month for Giants backers

The New York Giants have stumbled out of the gates the last couple of seasons and it has cost bettors early in the season.

The Giants are haven't covered a spread in their last seven September games, putting up an 0-6-1 ATS record.

New York hosts the Houston Texans Sunday, where the Giants are currently a slight 2-point home favorite.


Saints a surprisingly strong under bet vs. NFC

The Saints have struggled to start the season, but what is more surprising is that the Saints have been a strong under play against the NFC.

The under is 12-3 in New Orleans' last 15 games against NFC opponents and they will welcome another to Super Dome Sunday when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. The total for the game is currently at 49.


Bengals on red-hot ATS tear at home

The Cincinnati Bengals are not only look like one of the NFL's best teams in this young season, they are also red-hot tear when it comes to covering the spread on their home turf.

The Bengals have covered the spread in 10 consecutive regular season home games.

Cincinnati is currently favored by a touchdown for their Sunday matchup with the visiting Tennessee Titans.


Over trending follwing big Browns wins

The Cleveland Brown are coming off a big 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 2 and that result means the Browns are trending towards the over this week.

The over is 7-0 in the Browns last seven games following an ATS win and is 4-0 in the Browns last four games following a straight up win.

The Browns host AFC North division rivals Baltimore Sunday, where the Ravens are currently 2-point road faves.


Favorite streaking in this NFC North matchup

The Detroit Lions are looking to take the next step, while the Green Bay Packers want to show this is still their division as the two NFC North rivals clash Sunday and it has been the favorite who has had the edge, at least against the spread.

The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the division rivals and it is the Lions who are currently 2-point home favorites against the visiting Packers.


Colts have ability to bounce back for bettors

Despite the fact the Colts are coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in Andrew Luck's career, their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars is trending in Indy's direction.

The Colts are 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 games following a straight up loss, they are also 12-2 ATS following an ATS loss.

To make matters worse for the Jags, the Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six road teams versus a team with a losing home record and are 10-1 ATS in thier last 11 versus the AFC South. They are currently 7.5-point road favorites.


Raiders struggle to cover after loss

It has not been the season the Oakland Raiders envisioned at the start of the season and their history says it won't be a good week to back them once again.

Despite getting 13.5-point this Sunday on the road against the Patriots, the Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

T5) Bills, -2.5-- People hopping on Buffalo bandwagon.

T5) Cowboys, -2.5-- Rams struggled stopping Tampa Bay's run game.

4) Bengals, -6.5-- Held Atlanta to one TD last week.

3) Giants, +2-- JJ Watt vs Giants' OL? Interesting pick here.

2) Colts, -6.5-- Everyone going against Jacksonville.

1) Redskins, +6.5-- People think Cousins is better than RGIII.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 6-6

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.....

13) Florida State 23, Clemson 17 OT-- Sean Maguire was 21-39/305 in his first college start, tossing a 74-yard TD pass that tied the game in the fourth quarter. On Monday he goes back to the bench, until Jameis Winston's next incident. This was a bad loss for Clemson, which missed a 22-yard FG, fumbled in the last 2:00 when the game was tied and they were in easy FG range.

Great night for Jimbo Fisher, who did some serious coaching this week.

12) Utah 26, Michigan 10-- Speculation will now run rampant about Brady Hoke's job status. Jim Harbaugh, Les Miles. There was lot of bad weather in the midwest; three Big 14 home games were delayed by weather yesterday.

11) Rough day for the MAC:
Michigan State 73, Eastern Michigan 14
Wisconsin 68, Bowling Green 17
Penn State 48, UMass 7
Arkansas 52, Northern Illinois 14

MAC's only non-league I-A win Saturday was Ohio 36, Idaho 24. Oy.

10) Arizona 49, Cal 45-- Wildcats trailed 45-30 with 4:00 left, scored three TDs to pull a miraculous comeback, winning on a 47-yard Hail Mary at the gun. Cal led by 28-6 at half, 31-13 after three quarters yet somehow lost.

9) Alabama 42, Florida 21-- Total yardage was 645-200 Bama; Sims passed for 445 yards in his fourth college start. If this season finishes up with Lane Kiffin getting another head coaching job, the only way it can be justified is if he replaces Charlie Weis at Kansas (hey, the Jayhawks beat Central Michigan!!!).

8) East Carolina 70, North Carolina 41-- Tar Heels have an awful defense; they're in lousy shape, they can't tackle, simply terrible.

That said, my least favorite football rule is the stupid rule that you have to leave the game if your helmet comes off. It should be if you intentionally take it off, then you have to leave for a play. The current rule is nonsensical.

7) Southern Mississippi 31, Appalachian State 30-- ASU scored a TD with 0:06 left, then had the tying PAT blocked. With six seconds left. In a 31-30 game.

6) South Florida 17, UConn 14-- Huskies' first TD on a rainy night was a classic Football Follies play: USF is up 14-0 near end of the half, they throw a pass on sideline, right to a receiver, but he bobbles it into the hands of a UConn defender who runs for an unlikely TD. Huskies had six first downs the whole night; this was a terrible game.

5) South Carolina 48, Vanderbilt 34-- Commodores ran two kicks back for TDs, and still lost by 14 points. James Franklin was smart getting out of town. Vandy is a very difficult job to win at. Spurrier won by two TDs and was miserable after.

4) Wake Forest 24, Army 21-- Over last decade, Army is 0-7 as a road favorite.

3) New Mexico 38, New Mexico State 35-- Lobos completed only eight passes in this game, but four different players completed at least one. State had 507-499 edge in total yardage; Lobos ran ball for 432 yards, needed TD with 0:27 left to win.

2) Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 24-- Yellow Jackets scored ten points in last 2:03, handing Hokies their second straight home loss after winning at Ohio State.

1) Oregon 38, Washington State 31-- #21 on Wazzu is River Cracraft, who has great hands in the Wes Welker-mold. Ducks were challenged in this game, but Coogs are little bit talent-shy on defensive side of ball.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks

September 21, 2014 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Minnesota +10 1008 28.73% New Orleans -10 2500 71.27% View View

1:00 PM Tennessee +7 1265 31.10% Cincinnati -7 2802 68.90% View View

1:00 PM Oakland +14 1301 33.95% New England -14 2531 66.05% View View

8:30 PM Pittsburgh +3 1492 37.41% Carolina -3 2496 62.59% View View

1:00 PM Washington +5 1598 41.70% Philadelphia -5 2234 58.30% View View

1:00 PM San Diego +2.5 2179 52.09% Buffalo -2.5 2004 47.91% View View

4:25 PM Kansas City +4 2019 52.85% Miami -4 1801 47.15% View View

1:00 PM Green Bay +1 2198 54.58% Detroit -1 1829 45.42% View View

4:25 PM Denver +4 2231 55.80% Seattle -4 1767 44.20% View View

1:00 PM Houston +1 2364 57.07% N.Y. Giants -1 1778 42.93% View View

1:00 PM Baltimore -1 2390 59.19% Cleveland +1 1648 40.81% View View

4:05 PM San Francisco -3 2125 60.15% Arizona +3 1408 39.85% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis -7 2893 71.70% Jacksonville +7 1142 28.30% View View

1:00 PM Dallas -2 2928 72.80% St. Louis +2 1094 27.20% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

8:30 PM Pittsburgh 42 1070 41.63% Carolina 42 1500 58.37% View View

4:05 PM San Francisco 41.5 1000 44.05% Arizona 41.5 1270 55.95% View View

1:00 PM Tennessee 43.5 1013 45.06% Cincinnati 43.5 1235 54.94% View View

4:25 PM Kansas City 42.5 1110 45.83% Miami 42.5 1312 54.17% View View

1:00 PM Baltimore 43 1198 45.88% Cleveland 43 1413 54.12% View View

1:00 PM Houston 41.5 1243 48.12% N.Y. Giants 41.5 1340 51.88% View View

1:00 PM Dallas 44.5 1211 49.27% St. Louis 44.5 1247 50.73% View View

1:00 PM San Diego 45 1483 54.66% Buffalo 45 1230 45.34% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis 45.5 1370 56.73% Jacksonville 45.5 1045 43.27% View View

1:00 PM Oakland 47 1479 58.46% New England 47 1051 41.54% View View

4:25 PM Denver 48 1595 61.46% Seattle 48 1000 38.54% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota 49.5 1481 63.10% New Orleans 49.5 866 36.90% View View

1:00 PM Washington 50.5 1827 66.97% Philadelphia 50.5 901 33.03% View View

1:00 PM Green Bay 51.5 2094 71.64% Detroit 51.5 829 28.36% View View

Games are highlighted when more than 59% of all cash contests players choose outcome. See our FAQ page for details.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................0 - 0

DOUBLE PLAYS................................2- 0

TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................5 - 7

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................11 - 8

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................4 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................4 - 0

Rated Total.....................................24 - 15 61.53 %

Rated and overall Opinon Plays

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/18/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
09/15/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail
09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail
09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 38-*28-*0 57.58% +3600

Sunday, September 21


Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET San Diego +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Buffalo - Over 45.5 500


Dallas - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +1.5 500 *****
St. Louis - Under 45 500


Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Philadelphia - Over 50.5 500


Houston - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -1 500 *****
N.Y. Giants - Under 41.5 500


Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +10 500 DOUBLE PLAY
New Orleans - Over 49.5 500


Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +6.5 500 GRAND SLAM
Cincinnati - Over 44 500


Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Cleveland - Under 43 500


Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -1 500 GRAND SLAM
Detroit - Under 51.5 500


Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -7 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Jacksonville - Over 45.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Late Afternoon Games:


San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Arizona - Over 41.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Denver - 4:25 PM ET Seattle -4 500 GRAND SLAM

Seattle - Over 48 500 M *****


Kansas City - 4:25 PM ET Miami -5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Miami - Under 43 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Football


Pittsburgh - 8:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Carolina - Over 42 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................1 - 2

DOUBLE PLAYS................................2 - 4

TRIPLE PLAYS.................................4 - 1

LIGHTS OUT...................................2 - 1


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................6 - 9

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................13 - 12

TRIPLE PLAYS................................8 - 1

LIGHTS OUT..................................6 - 1

Rated Play Totals..........................33 - 23 58.92%


Overall Rated Plays and Opinons

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/21/14 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2700 Detail

09/18/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

09/15/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail

09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detaill


Totals 48-*42-*0 53.33% +900

[KazDog]

Good call Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

Here is my Rated Plays on Thursday-Sunday-Monday Night Football

Thursday Night

09/04,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Seattle - 5.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Green Bay Under 46.5 Triple Play ( Loser ).........................36 - 16

09/11.........................Pittsburgh + 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )....................Baltimore Over 44.0 Double Play ( Loser )............................6 - 26

09/18.........................Atlanta - 6.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Tampa Bay Over 47.0 Double Play ( Winner ).......................56 - 14


*****..................0 - 0

Double Play.......3 - 2

Triple Play..........0 - 1

Lights Out..........0 - 0

Side 2 - 1

Total 1 - 2

Rated Total..........3 - 3.............50.00%


Sunday Night

09/07...........................Indianapolis + 3.5 ***** ( Winner )...........................Denver Under 53 ***** ( Loser )...................24 - 31

09/14...........................Chicago + 7l.0 Double Play ( Winner ).........................San Fan Over 47.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........28 - 20

09/21,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pittsburgh + 3.0 Triple Play ( Winner ).........................Carolina Over 42.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........37 - 19

*****,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1 - 1

Double Play.........1 - 0

Triple Play...........3 - 0

Lights Out...........0 - 0

Sides.................3 - 0

Total.................2 - 1

Rated Plays........5 - 1............83.33 %



Monday Night

09/08..........................N.Y. Giants + 4.5 **** ( Loser )...........................Detroit Over 45 Double Play.................14 - 35

..........................Arizona - 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )........................San Diego Under 46.0 ***** ..............18 - 17

09.15..........................Philadelphia + 3.0 Double Play ( Winner ).................Indianapolis Under 53.5 *****.............30-27

09/22.........................??????????????????????? ????????????????

*****..............................1 - 2

Double Play........................2 - 1

Triple Play..........................0 - 0

Lights Out.........................0 - 0

Sides....................1 - 2

Total.....................2 - 1

Rated Totals.................3 - 3...................50.00%