The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, September 18


Thursday Night Football essential odds update

We are just hours away from the kickoff of Week 3 in the NFL and we have your essential odds update heading in the Thursday night matchup featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Atlanta Falcons.

As of Thursday morning the Falcons are currently 6-point home favorites over their division rivals. The Falcons opened as 5.5-point favorites and have been as high as -7.

Meanwhile, the total has been on the rise since opening at 44.5 and has been bet up to 45.5.

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NFL

Thursday, September 18


Home teams covering with ease on Thursday night

Home teams have dominated when it comes to covering the spread on Thursday Night Football this season and the Atlanta Falcons hope the trend continues tonight when the Buccaneers come to town.

Home teams are 2-0 straight up and against the spread in the first two games and have covered by an average of 16.5 points.

The Falcons are currently 6-point home favorites for their Thursday night NFC South division showdown with the Bucs.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday
Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1)-- Tampa Bay lost first two home games despite facing teams playing backup QBs; they're 9-13 in last 22 games as road dog- LSmith had 8-15-1 mark in his last 24 games as AU with Bears. Falcons are 23-14-1 as favorite at home under MSmith, 8-5-1 in division play. Teams split season series last three years, after Falcons had won five in row before that; Bucs lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses here by 6+ points. There were 149 first downs via penalty in Weeks 1-2; Bucs were only team not to allow one, but they also have only one takeaway (-3), unusual for a Lovie-coached team. Atlanta has five TDs, all on drives of 77+ yards; defense has one takeaway, not creating short field.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................0 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS................................1- 0

TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................5 - 7

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................9 - 8

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................4 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................4 - 0


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/15/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail

09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 36-*28-*0 56.25% +2600


Thursday, September 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 8:25 PM ET Atlanta -6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Atlanta - Over 47 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's eight-pack

Five previous times there was a Super Bowl reematch the following year......

-- Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs defeat the Minnesota Vikings 23-7. Next year, Minnesota beat Kansas City 27-10.

-- Super Bowl XI: Oakland Raiders defeat the Vikings 32-14. The next year, season, Oakland beat Minnesota 10-3.

-- Super Bowl XIII: Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Dallas Cowboys 35-31. Next year, Pittsburgh beats Dallas 14-3.

-- Super Bowl XXVII: Dallas defeats Buffalo 52-17. The next year, Bills beat the Cowboys 13-10. (That's a 38-point swing in Buffalo's favor, but Emmitt Smith was holding out during the rematch)

-- Super Bowl XXXI: Green Bay Packers beat New England Patriots 35-21. Then Green Bay beat New England 28-10 the next year, too

-- Denver at Seattle-- This Sunday. Seahawks won Super Bowl 43-8 last season.

Two other notes.......

-- According to the New York Times and ESPN.com, according to the last census in 2010, 2.5% of NFL players have been arrested, 4.9% of general population.

-- Chiefs were 2-14 two years ago, then started last year 9-0; since then, they've lost eight of their last ten games.


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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Top 8, Bottom 5 in the NFL........

32) Buccaneers 0-2—Started season off with pair of home losses to teams playing a backup QB- they’ve forced one turnover. Head to Atlanta tonight for game with division rival that is also coming off a loss. Not good.

31) Jaguars 0-2—Seems like long time ago they led Eagles 17-0 at half in opener; they’ve been outscored 72-10 since then.

30) Raiders 0-2—Only team starting a rookie QB, only team sharing its stadium with a baseball team. They lost to Jets when they were +2 in turnovers; a red flag.

29) Chiefs 0-2—Down seven starters as they head to Miami this week; actually played pretty well in Denver, but they’re already two games behind Broncos in AFC West.

28) Giants 0-2—Have to fix offensive line, so immobile Manning has time to set feet. Hard to have rookie RB who caught zero passes in college last year. They lost to backup QB at home last week, were 0-6 last year. 0-3 start this year could have rats jumping off ship.

8) Chargers 1-1—Antonio Gates looked like Kellen Winslow Sr against Seattle, after they let win at Arizona slip away in opener. Interesting game in Buffalo this week, against 2-0 Bills, in Jack Kemp Alumni Game.

7) Bills 2-0—Huge advantages in field position have Buffalo at 2-0 and enthusiasm very high in western NY. Acid test will be when they play Patriots, but for now, Buffalo is atop AFC East.

6) Cardinals 2-0—Won road game on short work week with backup QB; Arians showed faith in Stanton by having him throw on first play of game. Long term, they’ll need a healthy Palmer under center.

5) Texans 2-0—Not sure if they’ve beaten quality foe yet, but 2-0 is 2-0. Problem is, they were 2-0 last year, then never won another game. As long as Cushing stays healthy, that won’t happen again.

4) Panthers 2-0—Playing very solid defense, new receivers seem to be good enough (especially Benjamin) and Newton is healthier now. Winning games when backup QB plays is good for team morale.

3) Broncos 2-0—Second half production has been dismal, they haven’t been on road yet, but they get Welker back this week for Super Bowl rematch in Seattle.

2) Eagles 2-0—First team in NFL history to start 2-0 after being down 14+ points in second half of both games. In six of last 12 games, they didn’t score TD in first half, but in last four of those, they scored 3+ TDs in second half. Chip Kelly is a unique coach, a very good one. Nick Foles is much better in NFL than he was in college—that’s good coaching.

1) Bengals 2-0—Beat Ravens in Baltimore, beat Falcons by two TDs; impressive and with two new coordinators. Maybe this year they can win a playoff game

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some NFL with Week 3 upon us.........

-- Dolphins are 5-1-1 in last seven non-divisional home games.

-- Packers are 12-3-1 vs spread in last 16 games with Detroit.

-- New England is 1-6 in last seven games as double digit favorite.

-- Sehawks are 11-4 vs spread in game after their last 15 losses.

-- Carolina is 9-1-1 vs spread in last 11 home games.

-- 49ers covered eight of last ten games with Arizona.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend......

13) Eagles rallied to win in second half in both of their first two games; now they face old friend DeSean Jackson and backup QB Cousins making his 4th NFL start, while Philly is on a short work week after winning in Indy Monday night. Weird that Philly hasn’t scored a first half TD in six of its last 12 games.

12) I feel bad for Viking coach Mike Zimmer, who had to wait until age 58 to get this chance to be a head coach, then his best player gets suspended after one game. Vikings are walking into a hornet’s nest on Bourbon Street, with Saints off to dismal 0-2 start, despite scoring 55 points in two games.

11) Cleveland Browns’ first two games were decided by a total of five points; they’re 1-11 in last 12 games against Baltimore (the old Browns). Hoyer is 4-1 as a starting QB with Cleveland. Ravens lost eight of their last ten road games.

10) Michigan is only a 4.5-point favorite at home over Utah; Wolverines lose this game, and the Jim Harbaugh-to his-alma mater rumors are going to gain a lot of momentum.

9) Packers were down 21-3 at home last week, after losing opener in Seattle, but they rallied to beat Jets. This week Green Bay visits a Lion team they’ve dominated in past. Detroit laid an egg in Charlotte last week; this is an important early season game between two best teams in NFC North.

8) Florida was lucky (damn lucky) to beat Kentucky in OT last week; now they visit an Alabama team that hasn’t been challenged yet but is also unsettled at QB. Gators got whacked last two times they visited Tuscaloosa.

7) Tigers-Royals is biggest baseball series this weekend, biggest series Kansas City has seen in years. Only 10 days left in baseball season; AL playoff picture is still unclear.

6) Arizona Cardinals are atop NFC West at 2-0, despite playing their backup QB in Swamp last week; now 49ers come calling after they imploded in second half of their home opener. Niners have generally gotten the best of Redbirds, who lost RB Dwyer to an off-field incident this week.

5) Broncos-Seahawks are only sixth Super Bowl rematch ever; Denver gets WR Welker back here, but Seattle has been a dominant home team. This is Broncos’ first road game this year.

4) Why are Oklahoma/West Virginia in the same league? Andrew Luck’s dad is WV’s athletic director; he’s hurt their basketball program by giving them so many long road trips. Not sure its helped the football side either. Am guessing its helped their accountants, though, making sure they stayed in a top-5 league, unlike UConn or Cincinnati, which got left out.

3) Steelers are playing second straight prime time road game; they didn’t look good in 26-6 loss at Baltimore, which is what happens when your offensive coordinator misses the team charter. Carolina has become a solid home team under Rivera; star DE Hardy won’t play here (off-field issues).

Seriously, Todd Haley missed the Steelers' charter to Baltimore.

2) Jameis Winston is suspended for first half of Clemson-FSU game, so I guess Seminoles defer if they win the coin toss. Winston’s case is an interesting one, almost like a re-run of Johnny Manziel at A&M.

At some point, these schools are going to stop doing Heisman campaigns for kids, because when they win, the kid becomes bigger than life and becomes a handful to deal with. It would be surprising to see Winston in Tallahassee next year, as the (mostly small) incidents he is involved in pile up, even though he needs some more development to reach his potential as an NFL QB. One of those lose-lose situations.

1) Rex Ryan’s Jets host Chicago Monday night, team that made his dad famous. Buddy Ryan was also an assistant coach for the Jets’ Super Bowl III champs. Bears lost at home to Buffalo, then won at San Francisco, so lot of fun trying to analyze how they will play.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 50.5)

Half-point hook vs. Eagles’ poor starts

This 6.5-point spread is the second highest line for a Redskins-Eagles contests in the past five seasons (Eagles -7 in 2011-12 season finale) and could easily climb even higher by the time these NFC East rivals kickoff Sunday.

Washington is without starter Robert Griffin III, which will convince the public to pound 2-0 Philadelphia. However, Redskins backup QB Kirk Cousins would be a starter on almost half of the other teams in the league and is undervalued by many even after giving RG3 a go for his No. 1 spot in the preseason.

Eagles backers have soaked through their shirts this season. Philly fell behind 17-0 to the Jaguars as 10-point favorites but battled back to win 34-17 in Week 1. And this past Monday, the Eagles were down 20-6 to the Colts in the third quarter before outscoring Indianapolis 24-7 and winning the game outright as a 3-point pup.

Philadelphia has been outscored 34-6 in the first half of its first two games, turning the tables with a 58-10 assault in the final two quarters. Will another slow start be in store for Sunday? And if so, can Philadelphia recover in time to get past that half-point hook? Well, they'll have to deal with a stingy Washington defense that has only allowed a pair of field goals in second halves so far - lowest second-half points allowed in the league.


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53)

Packers’ poor protection vs. Lions’ sack-happy defense

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has already been sacked seven times, which is seven times more than the Packers would like after Rodgers missed seven games due to injury in 2013. "Mr. Discount Double Check" was blasted versus Seattle in the opener, taking three sacks, then was rocked for four QB kills against the Jets in Week 2.

The Packers offensive line is a bit of a mish-mash. There are a couple stalwarts on the line, in Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, but inexperience has been its biggest weakness. Second and first year protectors have been shifted around since tackle Bryan Bulaga went down (questionable for Week 3), and replacement Derek Sherrod has allowed pass rushers to get the best of him.

Detroit’s biggest strength on defense is its ability to pressure the passer – making up for a soft secondary. The Lions have seven sacks through the first two weeks, including four against the Panthers last Sunday, and will need to get to Rodgers quickly before he can hit his targets downfield. Detroit only got to Rodgers once in its lone meeting against him in 2013, but did sack the crap out of Matt Flynn – seven times for 37 yards – when it played the Packers backup at home in late November.


Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Broncos’ revenge vs. Seahawks’ stumble

The NFL schedule offers the Broncos a rare opportunity in Week 3. This is just the sixth time in NFL history that the previous Super Bowl combatants have faced each other in the following season. And it’s a game that’s been on Denver’s mind since the confetti flew in its face at MetLife Stadium this past February.

The Broncos have had revenge on their minds all offseason, if you couldn’t tell by the way the roster beefed up on elite defenders like LB DeMarcus Ware, S T.J. Ward, and CB Aqib Talib. And just in time for this Super Bowl rematch, Denver’s division rival San Diego laid down some bread crumbs for the Broncos to follow after stunning the Seahawks 30-21 in Week 2.

Just like Drago in Rocky IV, the Chargers proved that Seattle can bleed – “OK, you've hurt him, now he's nervous, it hurt! You see Rocky, he's not a machine! He's a man!” The Seahawks have been more concerned with defending their loss to the Bolts than talking about the Broncos, and should be worried that Peyton Manning and TE Julius Thomas will hook up like Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates, who scored three times in Sunday’s victory over the champs.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42)

Steelers’ versatile catch/run game vs. Panthers overrated rush defense

A quick glance over the NFL’s defensive categories, and you’d think Carolina was locking down the ground game like leg shackles – ranked sixth in the league, allowing only 86 rushing yards through the first two weeks. And why not? This Panthers stop unit finished 2013 with the third-best run defense (89.2 ypg).

Well, you’re all stupid. Digging deeper into the numbers, you’ll see that Carolina has faced the fewest rush attempts in the league through Weeks 1 and 2. Opponents – Tampa Bay and Detroit – have only run the ball an average of 17.5 times. The Buccaneers fell behind and gave up on the ground while the Lions were never big fans of running to begin with. But despite a lack of action on the turf, the Panthers’ opposition is still picking up 4.9 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh will look to exploit that overrated run defense with playmaking RB Le'Veon Bell, who leads the NFL with 308 yards from scrimmage – 168 of those coming on the ground. Bell is picking up 5.2 yards per carry and has already reeled in 11 passes for 12.4 yards per catch.

And behind the flash-and-dash of Bell is bowling ball LeGarrette Blount. He hasn’t seen much action this season – 14 yards on seven attempts – but has been a thorn in the side of his former NFC South rival, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown in four career games versus Carolina.

[StarDust Bum]

Who's the best bet in Super Bowl rematches: Winners or Losers?

Sequels are hardly as good as the original, but what happens when the original was just downright terrible?

Football fans had to sit through the Seattle Seahawks’ 43-8 drubbing of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII last February, after it was promoted as the greatest Super Bowl showdown of all time. Denver opened as a slight underdog at some books but closed around -1.5 by kickoff, but it only took one possession to see which team was the superior squad.

Now, in Week 3 of the 2014 season, these two NFL mega powers collide with Seattle tabbed as a 5-point home favorite in the Super Bowl rematch. Books opened at Seattle -4.5 and money on the home side has boosted the defending champs half a point as of Wednesday.

And with good reason too. In Super Bowl rematches the following season, it’s been the reigning champions who have provided the most profits when it comes to the odds. It’s a rare occurrence, happening only five times before, but in three of those five rematches the defending Super Bowl winner has covered the spread.

As for the two ATS blemishes, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl IV in 1970 then lost 27-10 as 12-point favorites the following season. The 1993 Dallas Cowboys fell 13-10 as 5-point chalk to the Buffalo Bills, after smashing their opponent 52-17 in Super Bowl XXVII that winter.

Those two Super Bowls were pretty lopsided, so perhaps there’s hope for the Broncos’ as revenge fueled underdogs Sunday afternoon. Denver did take a 21-16 victory over Seattle at home in the preseason, covering as a 1-point underdog in Week 1 of the exhibition schedule.

Here’s a look at each of those five previous Super Bowl rematches:

Super Bowl IV (1970): Chiefs defeated Vikings 23-7
Rematch (1970): Vikings won 27-10 in Week (KC L-12)

Super Bowl XI (1977): Raiders defeated Vikings 32-14
Rematch (1977): Raiders won 35-13 in Week 13 (OAK W -8)

Super Bowl XIII (1979): Steelers defeated Cowboys 35-31
Rematch (1979): Steelers won 14-3 in Week 9 (PIT W -10)

Super Bowl XXVII (1993): Cowboys defeated Bills 52-17
Rematch (1993): Bills won 13-10 in Week 2 (DAL L -5, U44.5)

Super Bowl XXXI (1997): Packers defeated Patriots 35-21
Rematch (1997): Packers won 28-10 in Week 9 (GB W +1.5, U45)

[jcindaville]

Thanks Stardust

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 3

September 19, 2014

After sportsbooks won the first two weeks of the NFL season, they are already looking to rally back from an early deficit following a 56-14 rout by the Atlanta Falcons over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Atlanta kicked off Week 3 NFL betting action with an easy win, one that Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, saw coming.

“Awful – I just knew it was going to come in, I just couldn’t do anything about it,” Avello said about bettors backing the Falcons, who opened as 5.5-point favorites. “I thought about going to 7 like three days ago because I knew we would be pressing 7, and we ended up going to 6.5 laying -120. I guess the bets on that game were probably 7-to-1 on the Falcons.

“A lot of my big money came in late, and that was the killer. I already had money on them. Then the late money really buried me. Sometimes you catch a team on a bad week, and I guess they caught Tampa on a bad week. Right from the first drive, you could tell this team’s in trouble. But Atlanta’s a very good team at home. It was a great spot for Atlanta, and the bettors were all over it.”

Sportsbooks will now try to make up some ground with Sunday’s slate, which features a Super Bowl XLVIII rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos in the biggest game of Week 3. The Seahawks opened as 5-point favorites and remained there as of Friday afternoon. Seattle blew away the Broncos 43-8 in the last meeting for the Vince Lombardi Trophy back on Feb. 2. The defending champs will have a significant home-field advantage, especially since it should be much cooler than it was for the team’s game last week in San Diego where they lost 30-21 to the Chargers.

“That Seattle game last week, I didn’t realize that the field was so hot,” Avello said. “That must have taken some steam out of them. I’m sure that they didn’t come into the game taking it lightly, because they knew that this team is a team this year that could possibly be reckoned with.”

There has not been much line movement in most of the games yet other than a half-point here or there. The one exception so far is the Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, who opened as 1-point favorites and are now up to -3. Both teams are coming off opposite results, as Chicago came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the San Francisco 49ers 28-20 as 7-point road underdogs last Sunday night while New York blew a 21-3 lead in a 31-24 road loss to the Green Bay Packers as 7-point dogs.

“The Bears are coming off of a good primetime game last week,” Avello said. “The Jets had a good showing in the first half, I don’t know what happened after that. They played a team that can catch you even if you’re up three scores. I don’t know if the Bears are that type of team.

“This looks like it will be a closer game throughout. At least it looks that way. Cutler to me is a lot like (Philip) Rivers, he can give you a good half or a full good game, but he always throws that pick or something at the end of the game.”

According to Avello, another game of note from a betting perspective is the Dallas Cowboys visiting the St. Louis Rams as 1-point favorites, with each of them getting their first wins of the season last week. “I think everybody wants to play Dallas, they had a good showing last week,” Avello said. We’ll see if that trend continues come Sunday, it may.”

Two divisional games worth watching include the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Cleveland Browns in an AFC North battle and the Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North showdown. The Ravens opened as 1-point road favorites and have moved to -1.5 while the Lions are -2.5 at home.

“Cleveland with a big win last week,” Avello said. “Has that team really turned the corner now? I don’t know, we’ll see. Baltimore plays a very boring style of football. When these teams meet, they are hard games to watch. They’re not games that the National Football League has drawn out to be exciting.

“I think a lot of the (Lions-Packers) games are decided within the point spread of 7. It’s usually a close game. Green Bay doesn’t look like they’re destroying anybody on the road.”

Finally, another huge matchup in primetime is the Sunday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers. The defending NFC South champion Panthers have looked impressive in starting 2-0 following a 24-7 victory against the Lions in Week 2 while the Steelers have had some extra time off after losing badly to the Ravens 26-6 on Thursday Night Football. Carolina opened -3 (-120) at The Wynn and has remained there most of the week, hitting a high of -3.5 (-120) on Wednesday.

“What that kind of shows you is that there’s a little bit of weight on Carolina’s side, home field and maybe a little extra,” Avello said. “Carolina’s looked really good so far. But then it’s a huge game for Pittsburgh certainly. That’s another one of those isolated games on Sunday night, so we’ll see where the money comes in late.”

Week 3 Betting Moves per the SuperBook in Las Vegas

Rotation Team Open Current Move

451 CHARGERS - - -
452 BILLS 1 2.5 1.5

453 COWBOYS 1.5 1 .5
454 RAMS - - -

455 REDSKINS - - -
456 EAGLES 6.5 6.5 0

457 TE-ANS 2.5 2 -0.5
458 GIANTS - - -

459 VIKINGS - - -
460 SAINTS 9.5 9.5 0

461 TITANS - - -
462 BENGALS 7 7 0

463 RAVENS 0 1.5 1.5
464 BROWNS - - -

465 PACKERS - - -
466 LIONS 0 2.5 2.5

467 COLTS 7 7 0
468 JAGUARS - - -

469 RAIDERS - - -
470 PATRIOTS 13.5 14 0.5

471 49ERS 2.5 3 0.5
472 CARDINALS - - -

473 BRONCOS - - -
474 SEAHAWKS 4.5 4.55 0

475 CHIEFS - - -
476 DOLPHINS 5.5 4.5 -1

477 STEELERS - - -
478 PANTHERS 3 3.5 0.5

479 BEARS - - -
480 JETS 1.5 3 1.5

Line Updates provided by bettingmoves.com on 9/19

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 3

September 19, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Last week, we pointed out three plays and they went 2-1 but I'll give myself a pass on the Minnesota play due to the Adrian Peterson issue.

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 3!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #468) Jacksonville +7 – All over the place, this was a +7.5 game just a couple days ago, but all of a sudden, there have been some big bets coming in on the Jags to make us think that they are headed towards their first cover of the season. Remember, for as bad as Jacksonville has looked, this is its first home game of the year, and it comes against a team which has had all sorts of consistency issues and has made gobs of mental mistakes. Not only is the insinuation there that the home standing Jags are going to cover this game, but it's there that they are going to end up winning it as well. Don't be stunned if it happens, as this is the sharpest play of the year, and it might be the sharpest play of the entire season as well.

Opening Line: Jacksonville +7.5
Current Line: Jacksonville +7
Public Betting Percentage: 73% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #478) Pittsburgh +3.5 – The Steelers being sharp in a primetime game just doesn't seem to make all that much sense, and this very well could end up reverting itself by the time Sunday Night Football actually rolls around. However, with over 60 percent of the betting action on Carolina, we have to take notice considering the fact that the line is eking just a bit in the other direction. The Panthers could be really thin in the backfield once again, and if by chance they have to put the ball in the air more often, we aren't so sure that that bodes well for the hosts. If you can catch this spread beyond three, you're going to be obviously be in a lot better shape than you'd be in getting just a field goal. It's only a mildly sharp play, but on a week where there isn't a ton of sharp action obvious, Pittsburgh isn't a bad play.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3.5
Current Line: Pittsburgh +3
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on Carolina

(Rotation #480) New York -3 – This one makes all the sense in the world to us. The Bears just played in primetime last week, and they ended up coming back from behind to beat the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Now, the public is all high and mighty on itself, and playing against a Jets team that just found a way to blow a game against Green Bay makes for the perfect square/sharp play. The public really thinks there's no reason for Gang Green to be laying points in this game, but we see it much differently. Remember that this was a Jets outfit that scored 21 points in their first three drives last week at Lambeau Field. It's a very winnable game for New York.

Opening Line: New York -3
Current Line: New York -3
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Chicago

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action

September 19, 2014


GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1) at DETROIT LIONS (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Detroit -3, Total: 53

The Lions host the Packers on Sunday in a game that could have major playoff implications in the NFC North division later in the year.

Aaron Rodgers’ team, fresh off a 31-24 comeback home victory over the Jets, will look to exploit the weak passing defense of Detroit, who will look to do the same to Green Bay's suspect secondary. The Lions lost 24-7 to the Panthers last week and will look to play a faster pace by throwing the ball more. Although the Packers are 15-2 SU in the past 17 meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS over the past six matchups, when the Packers visited Ford Field last year, they were blown out 40-10 as 6.5-point underdogs. However, Rodgers missed that game with a broken collarbone, and he is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) all-time versus the Lions with the only loss occurring in 2010 when he left the game with an injury.

Detroit is a miserable 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three seasons, but the team is also 7-4 ATS when coming off an Under in this same timeframe. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS off of a non-conference game during the past three years, but is a miserable 2-8 ATS as an underdog in this same timeframe.

The Lions are in pretty good health for this contest with only OT LaAdrian Waddle (calf) and safeties James Ihedigbo (neck) and Don Carey (hamstring) questionable for this one. The Packers have more vital injuries with LB Brad Jones (thigh) doubtful, and OT Bryan Bulaga (knee) and CBs Casey Hayward (hamstring) and Micah Hyde (knee) both questionable.

The Packers were down 21-3 against the Jets in their Week 2 matchup before QB Aaron Rodgers brought his team back for the 31-24 victory. Rodgers ended up with 346 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 28 yards in the game. WR Jordy Nelson was flat-out dominant for the Packers, catching nine passes for 209 yards and a touchdown in the game. Rodgers will look to find that same success against a weak Lions’ secondary on Sunday. Green Bay is going to need to work on defending the run this season and they’ll have to do it fast. They are allowing 176.5 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL) and that could be a huge problem against a team with two quality running backs in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. They are, however, allowing just 178.5 yards per game through the air this year (6th in NFL). That could all change with a matchup against Detroit's duo of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

After a dominant offensive performance in Week 1 against the Giants where they scored 23 points with 417 total yards, the Lions could not get anything going against the Panthers last Sunday. Detroit gained only 323 total yards in a 24-7 loss in Carolina, and a lot of that had to do with them struggling in the running game. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell combined for just 16 carries in the defeat, and that type of predictability calling plays can take you out of a game in an instant. Bell did, however, catch six passes for 61 yards during the loss. Detroit will need to mix it up against the Packers in Week 3.

QB Matthew Stafford threw for 291 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to the Panthers, while star WR Calvin Johnson hauled in six of his 13 targets for 83 yards. He will be a much bigger factor against the Packers, having gained 1,163 yards and 12 TD in 12 career meetings with the division foe. One plus for the Lions has been their outstanding defensive play early in the season. This unit is allowing only 197.5 yards per game through the air (9th in NFL) and 57.5 yards per game on the ground (2nd in NFL). They will need to be effective against the run in order to take Eddie Lacy out of the equation. However, holding up those numbers against the pass will be extremely difficult against Rodgers.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-1) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Philadelphia -6.5, Total: 50.5

The Eagles look to improve to 3-0 when they host the Redskins on Sunday.

Washington lost QB Robert Griffin III indefinitely to an ankle injury early in its Week 2 game against the Jaguars, but backup QB Kirk Cousins was more than ready to take over the team and threw for 250 yards with two touchdowns in a 41-10 blowout. The Redskins won’t hold anything back for Cousins as they attack a very beatable Philadelphia secondary. The Redskins also have a below-average secondary, and that will be a problem against Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense. The Eagles won-and-covered in both matchups between these teams last year and are 5-2 SU in the past seven meetings between the teams. However, Washington is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to Philly. Over the past three seasons, the Eagles are 4-13-1 ATS in home games, but are 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) in the past six home tilts. They will, however, be up against a Redskins team that is 1-6 ATS in its past seven road games, and 3-11 ATS as an underdog over the past two years.

WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring) and RB Darrel Young (back) are listed as questionable for Washington in this game, while the only new injury for Philadelphia is little-used WR Josh Huff (shoulder).

The Redskins head to Philadelphia on Sunday with a chance to get over .500. QB Kirk Cousins is now the starter, and he gives this team a more poised presence under center. Cousins is a strong pocket passer and will use his accuracy to pick apart a weak Eagles secondary. One player who really benefited from this quarterback change was RB Alfred Morris. With the Redskins’ franchise quarterback sidelined last week versus the Jaguars, the team leaned heavily on the run, and Morris certainly delivered. He carried the ball 22 times for 85 yards and two touchdowns in the game, and has rushed for 338 yards (4.0 YPC) and 2 TD in four career meetings with this division foe. Facing an Eagles defense that allows a lot of points, Morris could be in for another solid game for Washington. Where this team will need to be better is defensively. Although the Redskins have allowed just 16 points this season, they are not a good defensive unit. They have been fortunate to face both the Texans and Jaguars in the early going of this season, but playing against the Eagles will be a whole other animal. Last season, the Eagles scored 28.5 points per game against the Redskins, and Washington will need to hold them to much less than that to secure a win.

Philadelphia is 2-0 this season and the scariest part about it is that the club has not played anything close to its best football yet. The Eagles went into halftime in both of their games down by double-digits and ended up putting up huge numbers in the second half. QB Nick Foles is second in the league this season with 653 passing yards, as head coach Chip Kelly is letting him throw the ball as much as he wants, but the quarterback will need to be better going forward. He’s been a little sloppy at times with four turnovers (2 INT, 2 fumbles lost), and although this Washington defense has not been tested by a great quarterback yet, it is allowing just 165.5 yards per game through the air (3rd in NFL). That number is not indicative of the actual talent that this secondary has, but Foles cannot afford to play as poorly as he has at times this season. Last season, he completed 17-of-26 passes for 298 yards in a 24-16 win over the Redskins. RBs Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy should have a lot of room to run in this game, as the duo has combined for 250 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 TD with 230 receiving yards (11.0 avg) this year. McCoy has racked up more than 110 total yards in each of his past five meetings with Washington, totaling 712 yards (142.4 per game) and 4 TD in this timeframe. The Philadelphia secondary has done a solid job early in the year, allowing just 207.0 yards per game (11th in NFL), but the unit has given up some big plays for touchdowns. The Eagles will need to shore up the back of their defense as they go up against a very aggressive play caller in Redskins head coach Jay Gruden.


DENVER BRONCOS (2-0) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Seattle -5, Total: 48.5

The Seahawks host the Broncos Sunday in what is likely the most anticipated game of the NFL regular season.

This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl in which Seattle embarrassed Denver on the national stage by a score of 43-8 despite being an underdog in the contest. The Broncos are coming off a 24-17 victory over the Chiefs to improve to 2-0 on the season, but the Seahawks was upset 30-21 on the road versus the Chargers last week to fall to 1-1. Denver made a lot of offseason changes in order to deal with the defense that Seattle exposed in that February meeting. QB Peyton Manning will likely have WR Wes Welker back from his suspension and the Broncos’ offensive line is healthier in this year’s meeting than it was in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks are 14-2 ATS after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons, and are also 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less in that time. The Broncos, however, are 5-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past three seasons. RB Marshawn Lynch (back) is probable for Seattle in the game and S Earl Thomas (leg) is listed as questionable. Denver is still missing LB Danny Trevathan, who is out at least six weeks with a fractured tibia.

The Broncos will have revenge on their minds as they head to Seattle to take on the defending Super Bowl champs. In that Feb. 2 meeting, Peyton Manning threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. The Broncos’ running game combined for just 27 yards and their defense was a laughing stock. Denver, however, has addressed a number of positions in the offseason and just beat the Chiefs 24-17 to improve to 2-0. The season is young, but the Broncos are allowing just 93.5 rushing yards per game (10th in NFL) and will be keying in on stopping Marshawn Lynch. Seattle relies heavily on its running game and head coach John Fox knows that he must slow Lynch down in order to have a chance of winning. What really hurt this team in the Super Bowl, however, was turnovers. The Broncos had four of them in that game and Peyton Manning knows that he must take much better care of the ball in this one. Through the first two games of the season, Denver has not committed a single turnover. The return of WR Wes Welker could be huge for this offense, as he had eight receptions for 84 yards in the Super Bowl defeat.

The Seahawks have another chance to display their dominance against the Broncos on Sunday. The game, however, comes after a rather lackluster performance against the Chargers, where they fell 30-21 as 5-point road favorites. Their defense was somewhat exposed as they allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 284 yards and three touchdowns. They also allowed 101 rushing yards despite the Chargers heavily featuring the pass. Seattle will need to do a much better job against the Broncos. Denver will certainly be looking at the film to see just how it will be able to exploit CB Richard Sherman and the Seahawks "Legion of Boom" secondary the same way that Rivers did.

The Chargers used the tight end position frequently, targeting Antonio Gates seven times. The Broncos should feature Julius Thomas frequently after Gates hauled in seven passes for 96 yards and three touchdowns. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson enters this game on a high note, as he has thrown for 393 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. He was outstanding in the Super Bowl as well, completing 18-of-25 passes for 206 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3

September 20, 2014

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Giants are 13-0 ATS (15.7 ppg) since December 22, 2002 as a dog after they allowed more than 9 points fewer than their season-to-date average last week.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-14.7 ppg) since 2004 facing a team which averages over 8 yards per passing attempt put less than 5 yards per rushing attempt.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Cam Newton is 16-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) in his career when not more than a 10-point favorite in games this less than 13 days rest, after a game where he threw at least 33 passes and they did not lose by 21+.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-11 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has forced an average of at least 5.8 punts per game season-to-date.

NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- Duke is 13-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since 2007 when not more than eight point dogs if they covered by between 7 and 25 last game while scoring less than 55 points.

NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Marshall is 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since October 26, 2002 as a road favorite after a win at home.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-10 OU (-13.60 ppg) since January 02, 2011 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that attempted at least five field goals last game are 77-117-2 OU. Active on Buffalo.

NCAA O/U TREND:

-- Eastern Michigan is 13-0 OU (13.0 ppg) since September 19, 2009 with a total between 47 and 64 and as more than a 16-point dog, when they did not win by more than 4 or lose by more than 37 last game.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that are 13+ point dogs after losing as double-digit favorites last game are 51-75-2 ATS. Active against Troy and Ball State.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 3

September 20, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 3 Consensus Picks (Number of Selections)

1) Washington +6.5 (373)
2) Indianapolis -6.5 (352)
3) N.Y. Giants +2 (344)
4) Cincinnati -6.5 (332)
5) Dallas -1.5 (328)

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage

1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 - - -
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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Total Talk - Week 3

September 20, 2014


Week 2 Recap

For the second consecutive week bettors watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 in the NFL, which brings the season numbers to 18-14 (56%). If you happened to follow the games live or viewed replays, you could argue that the ‘under’ should’ve performed better.

The Saints-Browns ‘over’ cashed with a late field goal and the 49ers-Bears helped the cause with 21 points in the final 15 minutes. The one outcome that likely pissed off some ‘under’ bettors was the Texans-Raiders game. Houston was up 30-7 late in the fourth and Oakland decides to work on its two minute drill. Sure enough, they drive down the field calling timeouts, converting fourth downs and end up scoring a meaningless touchdown to push the game ‘over’ the number (41). What was probably more comical is that Oakland head coach Dennis Allen attempted an onside kick after the score with 18 seconds left. If your offshore outfit has a prop bet on which coach gets canned first, sprinkle a little on DA.

Divisional Battles

We have five divisional matchups this week and two of them are expected to be shootouts with numbers in the fifties. Keep in mind that there were six games last week that had totals listed at 49 points or higher and the ‘under’ went 4-2 in those contests. This week, there are only four games in that neighborhood which tells me the oddsmakers believe the “Fantasy Football” tendencies in the NFL are slowly declining.

Washington at Philadelphia: This total is hovering between 50 and 51 points, which is a tad lower than the two meetings last season (51.5, 54.5). Most would believe this total would come down to the Eagles offense against the Redskins defense but I’d be careful to overlook the Washington offense. Last week, backup quarterback Kirk Cousins had 10 possessions and the Redskins scored six times (34 points) with him under center. It was against Jacksonville but Philadelphia’s offense only managed 24 versus that same unit in Week 1.

Baltimore at Cleveland: (See Below)

Green Bay at Detroit: This is the highest total (53) listed in Week 3. Despite the expectations for fireworks, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and four of the last five encounters between the pair at Ford Field have gone ‘under’ the number.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: This is a tough total to handicap in my opinion. The Jaguars and Colts have both watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their first two games but the trend in this series is to expect a low-scoring affair. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and we haven’t seen a game with more than 40 combined points scored during this span.

San Francisco at Arizona: Similar to the Colts-Jags matchup, this total is a toss-up and the low total (42) does provide some insight on both teams. Arizona won’t have Carson Palmer under center for the second straight week and backup Drew Stanton appears to be on a short leash. The Cardinals have 10 scores in two games, six of them field goals and one of the four touchdowns was on a punt return. San Francisco is a very tough team to figure out right now. The 49ers have scored 48 points in two games, 45 of those have come in the first-half. And defensively, they allowed 45 in two games with 35 coming in the second-half. Four of the last five encounters between these teams have gone ‘over’ the number.

Thursday Night OVER Trend

I spoke about this system in last week’s “Total Talk” and it connected, fairly easily too. For those who missed it, the ‘over’ in Seattle-San Diego was the play.
Going back to last season, this angle now stands at 15-2-1 (88%).

All you have to do is find out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Seahawks opened the season on Thursday versus the Packers and then played at San Diego last Sunday. The Chargers won 30-21 and the ‘over’ (45) hit.

This week’s ‘over’ situation is on the Baltimore-Cleveland matchup since the Ravens hosted the Steelers on Thursday in Week 2. In the past 10 head-to-head meetings between this pair, the ‘under’ has gone 8-1-1 and they’ve been clear-cut winners too. The highest combined points during this span was 42 points, which occurred last season and that total ended up as a push for most bettors.

So do you play the ‘over’ blindly based on the hot trend? Certainly a fair question and I do believe things eventually balance out in the long run but there are some numbers that could have you leaning ‘over’ despite this streak.
For starters, Cleveland’s defense is allowing 450 yards per game, which is the worst in the league. Let’s be fair, Baltimore isn’t a great defensive team anymore, especially on the road. Last year, they allowed an average of 26.4 PPG away from home and Sunday will be the Ravens first road game.

Another thing to look for in this matchup is the tempo. The league average for plays per game is 64 after two weeks. Cleveland has pushed the ball more this season and is averaging 68 per game. Meanwhile, Baltimore has really stepped on the pedal as it leads the league with an average of 75.

Under the Lights

Based on the closing numbers, the ‘over’ went 2-0 in the primetime games last week. The San Francisco-Chicago matchup jumped as high as 49 points but closed at 47 ½ and the Bears captured a 28-20 road win, which probably helped savvy arbitrage bettors cash both sides. This past Thursday, the Falcons hammered the Buccaneers 56-14 and the ‘over’ cashed early in the third quarter. Including that result, the ‘over’ is now 6-2 (75%) in primetime matchups.

Pittsburgh at Carolina: We have a low total on SNF and it’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh having any real success against Carolina’s defense, which is ranked second in PPG (10.5). Also, hard to ignore the fact that the Steelers haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last six quarters. Dating back to last season, Carolina has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 at home.

Chicago at N.Y. Jets: After watching New York get diced up at Green Bay in the second-half last week, I’m assuming that Rex Ryan will try to slow this game down and keep the Bears offense on the sidelines. Easier said than done! Chicago has the ability to score in bunches, especially in non-conference matchups. In their last 10 against the AFC, the Bears have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 while averaging 29.4 PPG.

Fearless Predictions

After two weeks the bankroll is in the red for $230 and I can provide plenty of answers but at the end of the day, my reasons would just be excuses. Hank Moody would say, “Do better tomorrow.” As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cleveland-Baltimore 41
Best Under: Indianapolis-Jacksonville 45 ½
Best Team Total: Over Baltimore 21

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 32 Baltimore-Cleveland
Under 56 Oakland-New England
Over 40 Minnesota-New Orleans

[StarDust Bum]

Week 3 Tip Sheet

September 20, 2014

Chargers at Bills (-2 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- San Diego bounced back from a crushing Week 1 loss at Arizona to take care of the Seahawks in their home opener, 30-21 as 4 ½-point underdogs. The Chargers have covered in each of their first two games in the ‘dog role.
-- The Bills improved to 2-0 for the first time since 2011 by beating up the Dolphins at home, 29-10. Buffalo has cashed the ‘under’ in each of the first two games, while averaging 26 points per game.

Previous meeting: The Chargers destroyed the Bills at Qualcomm Stadium in December 2011 with a 37-10 rout as seven-point favorites. Since 2000, the home team has won six of the past seven meetings, with the Bills posting a 3-1 home record in this span.

What to watch for: From 2010 through November 2012, the Chargers put together a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS record in games played in the Eastern Time Zone. From December 2012 through the end of last season, San Diego improved to 4-2 SU/ATS, which included an overtime loss at Washington. Buffalo owns an 8-2 SU/ATS record as a home favorite since 2012, while covering nine of its past 10 overall at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Redskins at Eagles (-6, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- Washington rebounded from a season opening defeat at Houston, as the Redskins pounded the Jaguars, 41-10 as five-point favorites. The Redskins’ defense picked up 10 sacks, while overcoming an ankle injury to Robert Griffin III as Kirk Cousins threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.
-- Philadelphia managed its second straight victory after trailing in the second half, as the Eagles knocked off the Colts with a last-second field goal, 30-27. The Eagles cashed as three-point ‘dogs, one week after covering a 10-point number in a 34-17 triumph over Jacksonville.

Previous meeting: The Eagles pulled off the season sweep of the Redskins last season, as Philadelphia scored a combined 57 points in the two wins. The Redskins have covered three of the previous five visits to Lincoln Financial Field, including outright victories in 2010 and 2012.

What to watch for: Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have compiled a 4-6 ATS record at home, including four outright losses at Lincoln Financial Field in the role of a favorite. Since the start of last season, the Redskins have failed to cover six of their past seven games as a road underdog, including three straight losses to division foes on the highway.
Texans at Giants (PK, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- Houston’s defense stepped up without top pick Jadeveon Clowney, keeping the Raiders out of the end zone until the fourth quarter in a 30-14 at Oakland. The Texans have allowed just 17 points during their 2-0 start, the second straight season Houston has won its first two games (finished last season 2-14).
-- The Giants have scored 14 points in each of their first two losses to Detroit and Arizona, while getting outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter of last week’s 25-14 setback to the Cardinals.

Previous meeting: New York crushed Houston at Reliant Stadium as three-point underdogs in 2010 by a 34-10 count. Eli Manning tossed three touchdown passes in that victory, as the Giants are 2-1 in three lifetime meetings with the Texans.

What to watch for: Houston has split its last 10 road games against AFC opponents since 2009, while the Giants are just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS since the start of last season at Met Life Stadium. Tom Coughlin’s team has struggled to cover against NFC foes recently, putting together an 0-7 ATS mark in its past seven interconference matchups.

Titans at Bengals (-6 ½, 42 ½)– 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- For as good as Tennessee looked in the opener at Kansas City, the Titans looked equally bad in a 26-10 setback to the Cowboys as three-point home favorites. Tennessee yielded 220 rushing yards to Dallas as the Titans fell to 1-6-2 ATS in the past nine home contests dating back to the start of last season.
-- The Bengals have looked extremely impressive through two wins, including last Sunday's 24-10 triumph over the Falcons as five-point home favorites. Cincinnati racked up 472 yards of offense against Atlanta's defense, while allowing just three points in the first half this season.

Previous meeting: Andy Dalton threw three touchdown passes in a 24-17 victory by the Bengals at LP Field in 2011. The Bengals erased a 17-7 deficit to pick up their third win over the Titans in four tries dating back to 2005.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has covered 10 straight regular season home games since the end of the 2012 season, including an 8-0 SU/ATS record in 2013. Each of the past six victories at Paul Brown Stadium have come by double-digits, while scoring at least 34 points five times. Tennessee owns a solid 6-2-1 ATS mark in its past nine road games, including a 4-2-1 ATS ledger against AFC opponents.

49ers (-3, 42) at Cardinals – 4:05 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- San Francisco squandered a 20-7 fourth quarter lead in a 27-20 setback to Chicago last Sunday night. The 49ers allowed just 216 yards of offense, but couldn't stop Jay Cutler, who threw four touchdown passes for the Bears.
-- The Cardinals are one of the surprising 2-0 teams in the league, especially since Carson Palmer missed last Sunday's win over the Giants. Drew Stanton stepped in and led a comeback victory, the second win for Arizona this season after they trailed in the fourth quarter.

Previous meeting: San Francisco has grabbed nine of the past 10 matchups with Arizona, including a season sweep in 2013. The Cardinals trailed the Niners, 22-20 halfway through the fourth quarter in their first meeting last season at Candlestick Park, but San Francisco scored 10 late points to cover as 10-point favorites. San Francisco needed a field goal in the final seconds to grab the season finale in Glendale, 23-20, the fourth win in the past five visits to University of Phoenix Stadium.

What to watch for: The 49ers own an impressive 7-0-1 ATS record in the past eight games as a road favorite, while posting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS ledger on the road off a loss under Jim Harbaugh. Since 2009, the Cardinals have covered 13 of their past 20 games in the role of a home underdog, while Arizona has won six of their previous seven contests coming off an away victory.

Broncos at Seahawks (-5, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- Denver remained unbeaten in spite of not covering for the second straight game, holding off Kansas City, 24-17 as 13-point home favorites. The Broncos have jumped out to huge halftime leads in their first two victories (24-7 over Colts, 21-10 over Chiefs), but somehow have allowed Indianapolis and Kansas City to keep things interesting in the second half.
-- Seattle crushed Green Bay in the opener, but fell back to Earth in a 30-21 defeat at San Diego as 4 ½-point road favorites. The Seahawks yielded 377 yards and played from behind for the final three quarters, while cashing the 'over' for the second straight game.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in last season's Super Bowl, 43-8 as Seattle scored on a defensive touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown, and a safety to claim the franchise's first title. This is Denver's first trip to Seattle since 2002, as the last three meetings have gone 'over' the total.

What to watch for: Seattle has won 18 of its past 19 games at CenturyLink Field, including seven straight covers as a touchdown favorite or less. Peyton Manning has been listed as an underdog five times since becoming the quarterback of the Broncos, as Denver has cashed just once in this stretch, a 35-24 victory at San Diego back in 2012.

[StarDust Bum]

LVS FORMERLY THE HILTON CONTEST REPORT

The LVS formerly Hilton Hotel Sportsbook still runs the most prestigious s
ports handicapping contest in Las Vegas. Every week will post the top five selections in
the contest by number of handicappers.

This weeks top five picks by number of handicappers.

#5 Cowboys -3 1/2 328 Handicappers
#5 Bills -2 1/2 328 Handicappers
#4 Bengals -6 1/2 332 Handicappers
#3 Giants +2 344 Handicappers
#2 Colts =-6 1/2 352 Handicappers
#1 Redskins +6 12 375 Handicappers

The least popular selection in Sunday's contest action is
Oakland +14 only 77 handicappers on the Raiders.

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SUNDAY'S NFL TRENDS
.
San Diego at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 56-36 as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Buffalo: 8-23 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival

Dallas at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 12-27 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
St Louis: 12-26 ATS against NFC East division opponents

Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Washington: 37-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Philadelphia: 4-13 ATS in home lined games

Houston at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Houston: 16-6 OVER in road games in September
NY Giants: 0-6 in September games

Minnesota at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 51-26 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
New Orleans: 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents

Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 15-5 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
Cincinnati: 7-0 after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 59-38 UNDER (+17.2 Units) off a home win
Cleveland: 21-37 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 OVER in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Detroit: 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 19-8 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games

Oakland at New England, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 4-13 after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games
New England: 10-2 off 1 or more consecutive unders

San Franciso at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 14-17 UNDER against conference opponents
Arizona: 1-6 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points

Denver at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Denver: 47-26 OVER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Seattle: 14-5 ATS in home lined games

Kansas City at Miami, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 14-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents
Miami: 158-111 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest

Pittsburgh at Carolina, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS in the first month of the season
Carolina: 17-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better