The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Six most popular picks in the Westgate Super Handicapping Contest went 4-2 this week, are now 6-6 for the season.

-- If you know golfer Billy Horschel, its a good day to ask him for a loan; he won $11.4M as the PGA Tour playoffs came to an end.

-- USA 129, Serbia 92-- They covered by 17 points, Not a great event; well, it would've been without the American team.

-- When Bruce Bochy brought his son in to pitch Saturday night, it was the first time that had ever happened in the major leagues, a father bringing in his son. .

-- Golfer Greg Norman had an accident with a chainsaw, damn near cut his left hand off. The lesson as always: "Pay other people to do work."

-- If the baseball playoffs started today, they would look like this:
NL-- Washington-St Louis-Dodgers; Wild Card-- Giants-Pirates
AL-- Baltimore-Detroit-Angels; Wild Card-- A's-Royals

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday......

13) Panthers 24, Lions 7-- Carolina is 2-0 for first time in six years; tough for team to travel off a Monday night game-- Lions were -3 in turnovers. So far this season, teams that are -2 or worse in turnovers are 2-16.

12) Bills 29, Dolphins 10-- Buffalo had one TD, four FGs in six red zone drives, but no one is taking about that-- you knew it was a bad day for Miami when they gave up a 102-yard kick return for a TD after their first score, in the third quarter.

11) Redskins 41, Jaguars 10-- Robert Griffin III dislocated his ankle, is gone for couple months; Kirk Cousins did just fine replacing him. Funny how Daniel Snyder was quick to defend Roger Goodell, throwing "Redskins" into his statement, As for Jacksonville, looks like another long year, but they do have nice uniforms. .

10) Cowboys 26, Titans 10-- 220 rushing yards for Dallas- they had 76-49 edge in plays run, converting 9-13 on third down. Tennessee only ran ball 13 times out of 49 plays, after running it 38 of 75 plays last week. Dallas is now 14-8 vs spread in its last 22 games as a road underdog.

9) Cardinals 25, Giants 14-- Big Blue is minus-6 in turnovers after two games, in which they were -14 in field position in both games-- they also allowed a TD on a punt return. Drew Stanton gets win as backup QB; Arizona is off to a 2-0 start.

8) Patriots 30, Vikings 7-- Pats are now 26-9 vs spread in game follwoing a loss, as Vikings' run game was impotent without Peterson. NE blocked FG for a TD, also had a 1-yard TD drive, after one of their four INTs- they also had 15 penalties for 163 yards. Rough day for former Patriot Matt Cassel.

7) Browns 26, Saints 24-- Cleveland had 4th-and-7 on last drive and Saints didn't blitz; why? Saints scored 55 points in first two games, and are 0-2; why exactly does Rob Ryan keep getting jobs? Pick-6 that Brees threw in 2nd quarter that put Browns up 16-3 was only defensive TD of day, league-wide.

6) Bengals 24, Falcons 10-- Cincy gained 472 yards, were +3 in turnovers, but lost AJ Green to a toe injury. Bengals averaged 12.6 yards per pass attempt, after last week, when they only scored one TD. Atlanta also allowed 472 yards last week.

5) Rams 19, Buccaneers 17-- St Louis ended 0-12 skid in road openers, winning in backup QB Davis' 1st NFL start. Bucs start 0-2 at home; both opponents played a backup QB. Zeurlein kicked four FGs, including game-winner with 0:38 left.

4) Chargers 30, Seahawks 21-- 7 catches, 96 yards, 3 TDs for TE Gates, as San Diego hung 30 on a Seattle team that is still way better at home than on foreign soil. Adrian Peterson got paid $705,882 this week; that's $43,448 more than Seahawks are paying Russell Wilson all season.

3) Texans 30, Raiders 14-- Oakland is -6 in turnovers, but at least the A's won two of three in Seattle this weekend. Texans had 24-yard edge in field position; James Jones fumbled twice on one play- you don't see that too often. Last week there were 75 offensive TDs in 16 games; this week so far, 62 in 15 games.

2) Broncos 24, Chiefs 17-- Manning misses Wes Welker, a lot. In their two games, Denver has gained 148 yards on 41 second half plays, with one TD, one FG. First half numbers: 72 plays, 536 yards, with six TDs, one FG- thats a big difference, but they're 2-0 as they head out on road next week.

1) Packers 31, Jets 24-- Jets led 21-3 midway thru second quarter, but Nelson had nine catches for 209 yards-- his 16 targets were most Rodgers has ever targeted one receiver in a game. Both teams made a 50+-yard FG, you don't see that a lot. Jets have to be little bit encouraged with how QB Smith played.

0) Bears 28, 49ers 20-- Niners led 17-0 in their new stadium, but then imploded in second half; Chicago had four consecutive TD drives, gaining 205 yards on 25 plays. NFL teams that turn ball over four times rarely win.

There were 26 penalties in this game, for 176 yards-- its almost like someone who hates football now makes the rules, so everyone else will stop liking it. No one goes to games to watch flags being thrown-- lets the guys play- thats a better game.

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NFL

Monday, September 15

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Monday Night Football: Eagles at Colts
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Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 54)

Year 2 of the Chip Kelly regime got off to a shaky start for the Philadelphia Eagles, who faced an early 17-point deficit before roaring back with 34 unanswered points in their season-opening victory over Jacksonville. The Eagles will hope for a better jump out of the gate when they visit Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. The Colts also dug themselves a big hole in their opener, falling behind by 24 points before a belated rally came up short against Denver.

Philadelphia did earn a spot in the record books in its 34-17 victory, becoming the first team in league history to win by at least 17 points after being shut out at the half and trailing by at least 17. “The big thing is that as a team, we stuck together,” Eagles quarterback Nick Foles said. “My teammates stuck with me and we never wavered." Indianapolis allowed three second-quarter touchdown passes to Peyton Manning before its defense stepped up in the second half and held the Broncos to 87 total yards.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: ********* opened the Colts as 3-point home favorites. The total opened at 53.5 but is now up to 54.

INJURY REPORT: Eagles - T Matt Tobin (Out indefinitely, ankle). Colts - LB Jerrell Freeman (Out, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Eagles (-0.75) + Colts (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -4.25

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): Now entrenched as the starter after coming off the bench to throw 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions last season, Foles had an interception and lost a pair of fumbles in the first half before regrouping to throw for 183 of his 322 yards and two TDs after intermission to rally Philadelphia. One big positive on offense came from wideout Jeremy Maclin, who had four catches for 97 yards and a score after missing last season with a knee injury. Newcomer Darren Sproles, signed away from New Orleans as a free agent, also made a big impact by rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles' defense also came up big by forcing six straight punts to open the second half, including four consecutive three-and-outs.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-1, SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U ATS): Luck has already carved out a niche as the master of the comeback during his short tenure in the NFL and he nearly pulled off another, rushing for one score and throwing for a pair of fourth-quarter TDs en route to a 370-yard passing day last week. One unresolved question for Indianapolis is the impact of running back Trent Richardson, a non-factor last season who was limited to 20 yards on six carries after the Colts fell way behind. A bigger issue is replacing linebacker Robert Mathis, who led the league last season with 19.5 sacks but suffered a torn Achilles during a workout in Atlanta. "Tough, tough pill to swallow," coach Chuck Pagano said. "Right now they're still absorbing it, the enormity and shock of it."

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Eagles last six games in Week 2.

CONSENSUS: 62 percent of wagers on Consensus are behind the Colts.

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NFL

Monday, September 15


Colts-Eagles lights out on the Over

When the Indianapolis Colts and the Philadelphia Eagles get together, high-scoring games tend to follow.

The last five meetings between the two teams have gone over the total. They'll meet again in primetime action on Monday Night Football.

The Colts are currently 3-point home faves with a total of 54 - the highest total of any Week 2 NFL game.


Philadelphia ice cold ATS versus Indianapolis

The Philadelphia Eagles have had a hard time covering for their backers against the Indianapolis Colts recently, going 0-5 against the spread in their last five games versus Indy.

That's a trend bettors need to be aware of when the Eagles visit the Colts Monday. Indianapolis is presently 3-point faves with the total set at 54 for the matchup.

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NFL

Monday, September 15


Cowboys have biggest underdog cover Sunday

Underdogs went 7-6-1 against the spread Sunday, but the biggest and maybe most surprising to some was the huge cover by the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys closed as three-point road dogs for their meeting with the Tennessee Titans and came away with a big 26-10 win, covering by a big 19 points.

Dallas are 1-1 against the spread this season and head to St. Louis to take on the Rams in Week 3.


Super Bowl champs fail to cover on road again

Earlier in the week, we looked at how recent Super Bowl winners have fared in their first road game as defending champs.

The results against the spread were not positive as just two of the previous nine champs had covered in that spot.

Add the Seattle Seahawks to the list of champs who couldn't cover the spread in their first road game. The Seahawks closed as 4.5-point road faves at the San Diego Chargers and lost outright by a score of 30-21.

Certainly a trend to keep remember for the 2015 season.


Despite injuries, Washington has biggest cover Sunday

Washington lost quarterback Robert Griffin lll and receiver DeSean Jackson in the first quarter of Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that didn't stop them from having the biggest cover of the day.

Washington, which closed as a 5-point home favorite, still easily covered the spread by a whopping 26 points thanks to backup quarterback Kirk Cousins, leading them to a 41-10 win.

Washington is now 1-1 against the spread this season. The question is who will be Washington's signal caller next week? The odds for their game at Philadelphia is currently off the board.


Austin to have MRI on injured knee Monday

According to ProFootballTalk, St. Louis Rams wide receiver Tavon Austin will have an MRI on his knee Monday.

Austin injured his knee in the Rams' 19-17 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday.

The eighth-overall pick in the 2013 draft has not exactly lived up to the hype and has just three catches on four targets for 34 yards.

The Rams host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. Lines for this matchup are currently off the board.

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MNF - Eagles at Colts

September 14, 2014

The Eagles play their second straight interconference game to start the season, as Philadelphia hopes to duplicate its second half against Jacksonville and not repeat its first half effort that put them in a 17-0 hole. Indianapolis hopes to finish a possible comeback on Monday night, not to fall behind by 24 points like it did at Denver last Sunday night, as the Colts try to get into the win column.

Both the Eagles and Colts showcase terrific young quarterbacks fresh off playoff appearances last season, as Andrew Luck has been tremendous off a loss in his short career. Coming off last Sunday’s 31-24 defeat to the Broncos as eight-point underdogs, the Colts enter Monday’s action with a perfect 10-0 straight-up and against the spread record since 2012 off a loss. In this span, Indianapolis has knocked off San Francisco, Denver, and Green Bay in this situation, while the Colts have won five of their past seven games against NFC opponents.

The first half was pretty forgettable for the Colts at Sports Authority Field in Week 1, as Peyton Manning burned his former team for three touchdowns in the second quarter to give the Broncos a commanding 24-0 lead. Indianapolis scored a late first half touchdown to cut the deficit to 24-7 at halftime, but couldn’t convert on a fourth-and-goal in the opening minutes of the third quarter to get within 10 points. The Colts limited the Broncos to just seven points in the second half, as Indianapolis’ comeback ultimately came up short in the seven-point setback.

Philadelphia entered the season opener as the largest favorite on the board, laying 10 points against Jacksonville. The Jaguars put a scare into the Eagles by jumping out to a 17-0 advantage at halftime, but Philadelphia scored two quick touchdowns in the third quarter to trim the lead down to three heading into the fourth quarter. Jacksonville backers still felt good with eight minutes remaining in regulation and the game tied at 17-17, as Nick Foles hit Jeremy Maclin on a 67-yard touchdown strike to give the Eagles the lead for good. A late defensive touchdown by the Eagles gave Chip Kelly’s team the fortunate cover in a 34-17 triumph, while the 34 points in the second half also cashed the ‘over’ of 49.

The last time the Eagles and Colts hooked up in 2010, Manning and Michael Vick were the quarterbacks at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia held off Indianapolis, 26-24, but the Colts cashed as 3 ½-point road underdogs thanks to a late touchdown run in the final two minutes of regulation. The Eagles are making their first trip to Lucas Oil Stadium, as Philadelphia lost in its previous stop to Indianapolis at the RCA Dome in 2006 by a 45-21 count.

Last season, Philadelphia put together a 6-2 record on the highway, but somehow allowed a whopping 100 points in the two losses at Denver and Minnesota. The Eagles struggled against AFC foes in Kelly’s first season, losing three of four interconference contests with the lone victory coming at Oakland, a 49-20 rout of the Raiders in which Foles tossed seven touchdown passes to officially nail down the job as Philadelphia’s starting quarterback.

The Colts have dominated at home since Luck became the starting quarterback in 2012, winning 14 of 17 games at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the first home Monday night contest for Indianapolis since 2010, as the Colts lost their only Monday game last season at San Diego, 19-9. The Eagles have split their last six games on Monday night since 2009, as all three of those victories coincidentally came at Washington, including last season’s season opening victory.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his views on this matchup, "This is a key game for the Colts to avoid an 0-2 start, especially seeing the strong start for the Texans who appear to be back as a contender in the division. Indianapolis has gone 33 straight games without consecutive losses, a NFL record, but Philadelphia presents one of the most difficult matchups in the league for a defense that allowed some big plays in the opener. The Eagles were an inconsistent team last season, known for offense but scoring 27 or fewer points in nine of 17 games last season."

Indianapolis opened as three-point home favorites and that number has stayed pretty steady for most of the week. The total is set between 54 and 54 ½ at most books, as the Eagles went 4-1 to the ‘over’ in five road games last season with totals listed above 50. The game kicks off at 8:35 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Colts host Eagles on MNF

September 14, 2014


Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 54

The Colts attempt to avoid an 0-2 start when they host the Eagles on Monday night.

Philadelphia got into trouble in Week 1 with a 17-0 deficit to the 9.5-point underdog Jaguars, but came out a completely different team in the second half, scoring 34 straight points to win 34-17. The club cannot afford to fall behind by that much against Indianapolis, which is a way more talented offense than the Jaguars, so zero points in the second half for Andrew Luck and company is rather unrealistic.

The Colts trailed the Broncos 31-10 early in the fourth quarter of their season opener, but cut the lead to 31-24 with just over three minutes remaining. Luck threw for 370 yards with two touchdowns in the game, but was not able to bring his team back to tie it.

Indy would be wise to ground-and-pound a little against the Eagles, as slowing the game down could disrupt Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense.

Since 1992, the Colts are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS (2-1 SU and ATS on road) versus the Eagles. Indianapolis is also 10-0 ATS in the past three seasons at home where the Total is at least 45.5 points. However, the Eagles are 21-14 ATS (60%) on Monday night since 1992.

On the injury front, Indianapolis lost LB Robert Mathis (Achilles) for the season, and might be without four other key defensive players on Monday who are all questionable -- LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring), CB Greg Toler (ribs), DE Arthur Jones (shoulder) and DB Sergio Brown (shoulder). The Eagles placed a couple of offensive linemen on IR this week (OT Allen Barbre and G Evan Mathis), but there are no other significant injuries to their squad.

The Eagles pressed the snooze button early on against the Jaguars, but finally awakened in the second half. QB Nick Foles was a disaster early on with an interception and two lost fumbles in the first half, but he found his groove early in the third. Foles finished the game with 322 passing yards and two touchdowns, and should have success against a beatable Colts secondary that allowed 6.92 yards per pass attempt last year (21st in NFL).

Last season's rushing champ, RB LeSean McCoy, had 21 carries for only 74 yards (3.5 YPC) against the Jaguars, but did catch six passes for 41 yards in the passing game. New teammate RB Darren Sproles rushed for 71 yards on 11 carries (6.5 YPC) with a touchdown in the game, and also caught four passes for 14 yards. These two backs will see a lot of action against the Colts, whose rushing defense is prone to giving up big plays.

Philly's run defense was excellent versus the Jaguars, allowing only 64 yards on 25 carries (2.6 YPC). Where the Eagles will need to improve is their defense against the pass. They allowed Chad Henne to throw for 266 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in their opener, and Andrew Luck is a far superior quarterback that Henne is, and he will make them pay if they don’t improve their coverage.

QB Andrew Luck did everything he could to bring his Colts team back into the game against Denver in Week 1, but the comeback fell just short. The good news is that Luck was able to make a ton of plays in the passing game and also rushed for 19 yards and a touchdown on five attempts. He should have no problem lighting up a far inferior Eagles secondary. WR Reggie Wayne caught nine passes for 98 yards in his first game since undergoing surgery on a torn ACL. He should be able to repeat his success against Philadelphia’s defense.

One area that must improve is the rushing offense. The Colts are a team that likes to pound the ball, but RB Trent Richardson rushed for only 20 yards on six carries against the Broncos. Indianapolis will need to establish the rush early, so that it can slow down the Eagles offense and prevent Luck from carrying too much of a load for his team.

The Colts defense allowed only 102 yards on 32 carries (3.2 YPC) against the Broncos, and if they can do the same against LeSean McCoy and the Eagles then they should be in good shape. Covering the middle of the field will be crucial, because Nick Foles likes to go right at the opposing safeties with deep passes.

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NFL Betting Recap - Week 2

September 15, 2014


NFL Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 10-5

Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 9-6

Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 5-10

NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 19-12

Against the Spread 13-17-1

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 19-12

Against the Spread 12-18-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-19


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Washington (-4.5) defeated Jacksonville 41-10 despite losing QB Robert Griffin III and WR Desean Jackson to injuries.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Kansas City (+13) lost to Denver 24-17 but still managed to cover. The Chiefs had an opportunity to tie the game late but the Broncos made a goal-line stand.

Biggest Underdog to Win Outright

Chicago (+290) trailed San Francisco 17-0 late in the first-half but rallied for a 28-20 win as seven-point road underdogs.

Cleveland (+200) nipped New Orleans 26-24 as a five-point home underdog.

Line Moves

There were plenty of moves on Sunday and some were right, while others were wrong. The winners were bettors who took the Browns (+6), Chargers (+5) and Jets (+7.5). The teams that didn't get respect from the professionals were the Panthers (-1), Redskins (-4.5), Cardinals (+1.5), Patriots (-3) and Rams (+5.5). Carolina and Arizona's moves were also related to injuries.

Braggin' Rights

The AFC went 4-3 against the NFC in Week 2, victories by the Browns, Bengals, Chargers and Patriots. NFC winners were the Cowboys, Packers and Redskins. The last non-conference matchup of Week 2 takes place on Monday between the Eagles and Colts.

Undefeated (2-0)

Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, Houston, Philadelphia (Pending)

The Broncos are the only unbeaten team that has failed to cover a number.

Winless (0-2)

Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, New York Giants, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis (Pending)

The Saints have lost their two games by a combined five points.

Favorites Bounce Back

After watching the underdogs go 11-5 against the spread in Week 1, favorites rebounded a little bit with an 8-6-1 ATS mark in Week 2.

The point-spread didn’t matter in 13 of the first 15 games in Week 2. Denver won but failed to cover and Green Bay defeated the N.Y. Jets 31-24 as seven-point home favorites.

Totals

The ‘under’ went 6-2 in the early games on Sunday while the ‘over’ produced a 3-2 mark in the late games.

New England built a 24-7 lead at halftime and shutout Minnesota 6-0 in the final two quarters. The 37 combined points came up short of the closing number (49).

In their 30-14 home loss to the Texans, the Raiders put up a late touchdown to push the game ‘over’ the closing total of 41. Down 23 points, Oakland was actually calling timeouts to post the meaningless score.

The game-winning field goal by the Browns (26-24) helped that game go ‘over’ the closing number of 49 ½. This line was as high as 50 ½ points earlier in the day, leaving bettors with middle opportunities.

Kansas City’s failure to execute late at Denver kept the game ‘under’ the total (49). If the Chiefs score, the game is tied 24-24 and likely headed to overtime.

The SNF contest between the 49ers and Bears had a middle opportunity. The number was as high as 48.5 this week but most shops closed at 47.5. The final result was 48 combined points.

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Books pick up Week 2 win

September 15, 2014

Johnny Avello said his New York Giants were “just awful” heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, and he was right on the money. Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, grew up a Giants fan, but opened the Arizona Cardinals as 1.5-point road favorites for their matchup on Sunday.

Little did Avello know, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer would be ruled out before kickoff due to a shoulder injury and replaced by backup Drew Stanton. Bettors ended up moving the line four points in favor of New York to -2.5, yet Stanton still somehow managed to lead the Cardinals to a 25-14 victory, helping sportsbooks to another winning week.

“We ended up closing the Giants the favorite, and that worked okay because we took Arizona money early, took Giants money late – that game was fairly balanced out,” Avello said. “This is nothing new with the Giants, even the two years they won the Super Bowls (at the end of 2007 and 2011 seasons), they didn’t look that good at the beginning of the year. They never have. Every year the Giants have won the Super Bowl, it’s been about a momentum swing where everything just started to come together.

“And it’s not that they played that great during those two Super Bowl wins, it was just that it was everything happening right at the right time. They look worse than those two years right now. Manning doesn’t look good, they don’t have the receivers they once had. They always relied on a good strong running back, they don’t have that. They just don’t have anything.”

Results in eight of the 14 Sunday games went against the betting line moves – including six of the seven early games – led by Arizona’s win and the Carolina Panthers coming through with starting quarterback Cam Newton back in the lineup following a rib injury that caused him to miss Week 1. The Panthers beat the Detroit Lions 24-7 at home after opening at -3 and closing at -1. Later in the day, the St. Louis Rams pulled off a 19-17 upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 5.5-point road underdogs.

“I think the good games for us (Sunday) were the Panthers and the Rams-Buccaneers – I guess those two were the bigger ones,” said Avello.

The Chicago Bears capped off the day’s big win for the sportsbooks with an even bigger victory for themselves. The Bears evened their record at 1-1 after trailing the San Francisco 49ers 17-0 late in the second quarter on the road. Chicago rallied behind four touchdown passes by QB Jay Cutler and a solid defensive effort the rest of the way to win 28-20 on Sunday Night Football as a seven-point underdog.

While underdogs did not enjoy nearly the same success as Week 1 when they went 11-5 against the spread with seven straight-up wins, it’s the type of dogs that won and covered who killed bettors the most in Week 2. The Bucs did it to them again along with the New Orleans Saints, who fell to 0-2 with a 26-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns as 5.5-point road favorites. Underdogs are 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS going into the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts (-3) and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It busted up some teasers, that’s for sure,” Avello said of the Saints. “That was a good game for the teaser side. The 49er game, we needed the Bears for a little so that worked out ok. (Tonight) I’m heavy on Eagles points, but I’m heavy on Colts moneyline.”

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NFL Consensus Picks


September 15, 2014 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:30 PM Philadelphia +3 1629 38.17% Indianapolis -3 2639 61.83% View View


Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

8:30 PM Philadelphia 53.5 2362 73.45% Indianapolis 53.5 854 26.55% View View

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No respite for NFL as injuries strike

September 15, 2014


Actual football games were supposed to provide some respite for the NFL from off-field headlines created by Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and drug policies.

Instead, there was a rash of injuries to stars grabbing attention.

Robert Griffin III, Jamaal Charles, A.J. Green, Knowshon Moreno and DeSean Jackson were sidelined Sunday, with Griffin's injury appearing the most long-term.

RG3 dislocated his left ankle and receiver Jackson sprained his left shoulder in the first quarter. Luckily for Washington, Kirk Cousins came in and threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-10 romp past Jacksonville.

Griffin was carted to the locker room with his leg in a splint and could be out for two months. The quarterback will undergo X-rays to determine if the ankle is broken.

''It's an excruciating pain,'' Griffin said. ''Anytime you look at your ankle and it's going in a strange direction, you don't want to get up.''

Kansas City All-Pro running back Charles left with a left ankle injury in Denver after being brought down in the first quarter. The Broncos won 24-17.

Green aggravated a right toe problem early in Cincinnati's 24-10 victory over Atlanta. The receiver was blanked for the first time in his three-plus pro seasons.

Moreno hurt his left elbow 11 minutes into Miami's 29-10 loss at Buffalo. The running back didn't return.

That's hardly the kind of weekend the league hoped for after all the negative news generated by the Rice and Peterson cases. Week 2 concludes Monday night with Philadelphia (1-0) at Indianapolis (0-1).

Redskins 41, Jaguars 10

Cousins subbed for Griffin and completed his first 12 passes. Ryan Kerrigan had four of the Redskins' 10 sacks, and Washington's defense didn't allow Jacksonville (0-2) past midfield until the final two minutes of the first half.

Host Washington (1-1) outgained Jacksonville 449-148.

''He's waited patiently,'' coach Jay Gruden said of Cousins, ''and now his time is going to come to really take this thing and run with it.''

Broncos 24, Chiefs 17

At Denver, Terrance Knighton batted away Alex Smith's fourth-and-goal pass to Dwayne Bowe with 15 seconds left to move the Broncos to 2-0.

The Chiefs (0-2) converted 11 of 16 third-down opportunities overall, even without Charles.

''He's a great player and you do have a number of plays in for him because of that,'' coach Andy Reid said.

Peyton Manning was 21 of 26 for 242 yards and three TDs.

Bengals 24, Falcons 10

At Cincinnati, running back Giovani Bernard picked up the depleted offense by running for 90 yards as the Bengals (2-0) won their home opener despite Green's absence.

Cincinnati also lost tight end Alex Smith (left biceps), right guard Kevin Zeitler (right calf), and Pro Bowl linebacker Vontaze Burfict (pinched nerve in his neck).

''I think the sky is the limit with this offense,'' said rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who ran for 74 yards and a touchdown. ''Once we get some of those guys back, it'll be exciting.''

Atlanta (1-1) allowed 472 yards.

Bills 29, Dolphins 10

The Clemson connection was decisive in lifting Buffalo (2-0): C.J. Spiller scored on a 102-yard kickoff return, and rookie receiver Sammy Watkins had a 12-yard touchdown catch.

The Bills rode the momentum of a charged-up crowd in a home opener that celebrated the franchise. The Bills paid tribute to late owner Ralph Wilson, who died in March. On Tuesday, Wilson's estate reached a ''definitive agreement'' to sell the team to Terry and Kim Pegula for an NFL-record $1.4 billion.

Miami (1-1) allowed four sacks and had two giveaways.

Bears 28, 49ers 20

A downer for the 49ers (1-1) as they made their regular-season debut at Levi's Stadium by blowing a 17-0 lead.

Jay Cutler passed for three fourth-quarter touchdowns after much of Chicago's starting defense went down. The Bears left the game with five key defensive players hurt: cornerbacks Sherrick McManis (quadriceps) and Charles Tillman (triceps), defensive end Trevor Scott (foot), safety Chris Conte (shoulder) and defensive tackle Jeremiah Ratliff (concussion).

Altogether, Cutler threw three TD passes to Brandon Marshall, and also hit Martellus Bennett for the go-ahead score.

Rookie Kyle Fuller made two late interceptions.

Colin Kaepernick threw three interceptions in all and lost a fumble for the Niners (1-1).

Chargers 30, Seahawks 21

At San Diego, Antonio Gates was unstoppable with three touchdown catches. A 21-yarder in the third quarter saw the tight end split two defenders and extend for Philip Rivers' pass, reaching out with his left hand to gather it in. Flat on his back, made the super catch.

Rivers was 28 of 37 for 284 yards for San Diego (1-1).

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle (1-1) had the ball for less than 18 minutes.

Cardinals 25, Giants 14

Ted Ginn Jr. ran 71 yards on a punt return for a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown for Arizona (2-0), which was without its starting QB.

Playing in a regular-season game for the first time since 2010, Drew Stanton replaced the scratched Carson Palmer and led the Cardinals on three long scoring drives. Arizona won for the ninth time in 11 games.

Jonathan Dwyer scored on a 1-yard run and Chandler Catanzaro kicked four field goals.

Eli Manning threw two touchdowns for the host Giants (0-2), who turned over the ball four times.

Browns 26, Saints 24

At Cleveland, Billy Cundiff kicked a 29-yard field goal with 3 seconds left and the Browns (1-1) snap a nine-game losing streak in home openers.

Rookie coach Mike Pettine's first NFL win was secured when Brian Hoyer drove the Browns 85 yards in 14 plays in the final 2:46.

The Saints (0-2) took the lead on Mark Ingram's 1-yard run with 12:12 left. Drew Brees threw two touchdown passes to Jimmy Graham and moved into fourth place on the NFL's career passing list.

Packers 31, Jets 24

At Green Bay, the Packers (1-1) stormed back from an 18-point hole as Aaron Rodgers threw for three touchdowns. Jordy Nelson had a career-high 209 yards receiving, including an 80-yard TD.

Strangely, New York (1-1) appeared to tie it with about five minutes left on a 37-yard catch by Jeremy Kerley on fourth down. But someone on the sideline had called a timeout just before the snap.

Randall Cobb caught two short scoring strikes and a 2-point conversion for the Pack.

Patriots 30, Vikings 7

At Minneapolis, Tom Brady's former backup, Matt Cassel, was picked off four times. Chandler Jones returned a field goal he blocked for a touchdown right before halftime, too.

Devin McCourty, Darrelle Revis, Logan Ryan and Dominique Easley all had interceptions, setting up 17 points for the Patriots (1-1).

Star RB Peterson was deactived by the Vikings (1-1) after a charge of child abuse was levied against him Friday in Texas.

Cowboys 26, Titans 10

At Nashville, DeMarco Murray ran for 167 yards and a touchdown and Dan Bailey kicked four field goals to ruin Ken Whisenhunt's home debut as Titans coach.

Even the beleaguered defense contributed for Dallas (1-1) with two sacks and two interceptions.

The Titans (1-1) had the ball for less than 19 minutes and allowed 26 first down while gaining half that many.

Panthers 24, Lions 7

At Charlotte, Cam Newton was back and threw for 281 yards and a touchdown. Newton, who missed the season opener with a rib injury, was 22 of 34 and overcame five sacks for Carolina (2-0).

Carolina's defense, playing without Pro Bowl defensive end Greg Hardy, had three takeaways and held the Lions (1-1) scoreless in the first half one week after Matthew Stafford and company put up 35 points against the Giants. Hardy, convicted on two counts of domestic violence on July 15, was a surprise inactive.

Stafford was sacked four times.

Texans 30, Raiders 14

At Oakland, J.J. Watt caught a 1-yard touchdown pass, Arian Foster ran for 138 yards and a score.

Defensive end Watt made his biggest impact on the opening drive as a tight end. He caught a pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to get Houston (2-0) going.

After losing their final 14 games in a two-win season in 2013, the Texans have opened strong under new coach Bill O'Brien. And the Raiders are 0-2.

Rams 19, Buccaneers 17

At TAMPA, Greg Zuerlein's fourth field goal, a 38-yarder with 38 seconds remaining, gave the Rams (1-1) a tight win.

Austin Davis completed 22 of 29 passes for 235 yards with no interceptions in his first NFL start. Zac Stacy had a 2-yard touchdown run.

Bobby Rainey rushed for 144 yards and quarterback Josh McCown had two short TD runs for the Bucs (0-2) in a game delayed in the first half by dangerous weather.

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Sunday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................3 - 4

DOUBLE PLAYS................................3- 4

TRIPLE PLAYS................................2 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................1 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................5 - 6

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................8 - 8

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................4 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................4 - 0


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail

09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 35-*27-*0 56.45% +2650


NFL

Monday, September 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia +3 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Indianapolis - Under 53.5 500 *****

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Monday's Rated Games:

*****..........................................0 - 1

DOUBLE PLAYS................................1- 0

TRIPLE PLAYS................................0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................0 - 0


NFL Rated Games For Sept.

*****.........................................5 - 7

DOUBLE PLAYS..............................9 - 8

TRIPLE PLAYS...............................4 - 0

LIGHTS OUT..................................4 - 0


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/15/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

09/14/14 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*1400 Detail

09/11/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

09/08/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

09/07/14 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2500 Detail

09/04/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 36-*28-*0 56.25% +2600

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Books pick up Week 2 win

September 15, 2014

Johnny Avello said his New York Giants were “just awful” heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, and he was right on the money. Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, grew up a Giants fan, but opened the Arizona Cardinals as 1.5-point road favorites for their matchup on Sunday.

Little did Avello know, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer would be ruled out before kickoff due to a shoulder injury and replaced by backup Drew Stanton. Bettors ended up moving the line four points in favor of New York to -2.5, yet Stanton still somehow managed to lead the Cardinals to a 25-14 victory, helping sportsbooks to another winning week.

“We ended up closing the Giants the favorite, and that worked okay because we took Arizona money early, took Giants money late – that game was fairly balanced out,” Avello said. “This is nothing new with the Giants, even the two years they won the Super Bowls (at the end of 2007 and 2011 seasons), they didn’t look that good at the beginning of the year. They never have. Every year the Giants have won the Super Bowl, it’s been about a momentum swing where everything just started to come together.

“And it’s not that they played that great during those two Super Bowl wins, it was just that it was everything happening right at the right time. They look worse than those two years right now. Manning doesn’t look good, they don’t have the receivers they once had. They always relied on a good strong running back, they don’t have that. They just don’t have anything.”

Results in eight of the 14 Sunday games went against the betting line moves – including six of the seven early games – led by Arizona’s win and the Carolina Panthers coming through with starting quarterback Cam Newton back in the lineup following a rib injury that caused him to miss Week 1. The Panthers beat the Detroit Lions 24-7 at home after opening at -3 and closing at -1. Later in the day, the St. Louis Rams pulled off a 19-17 upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 5.5-point road underdogs.

“I think the good games for us (Sunday) were the Panthers and the Rams-Buccaneers – I guess those two were the bigger ones,” said Avello.

The Chicago Bears capped off the day’s big win for the sportsbooks with an even bigger victory for themselves. The Bears evened their record at 1-1 after trailing the San Francisco 49ers 17-0 late in the second quarter on the road. Chicago rallied behind four touchdown passes by QB Jay Cutler and a solid defensive effort the rest of the way to win 28-20 on Sunday Night Football as a seven-point underdog.

While underdogs did not enjoy nearly the same success as Week 1 when they went 11-5 against the spread with seven straight-up wins, it’s the type of dogs that won and covered who killed bettors the most in Week 2. The Bucs did it to them again along with the New Orleans Saints, who fell to 0-2 with a 26-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns as 5.5-point road favorites. Underdogs are 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS going into the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts (-3) and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It busted up some teasers, that’s for sure,” Avello said of the Saints. “That was a good game for the teaser side. The 49er game, we needed the Bears for a little so that worked out ok. (Tonight) I’m heavy on Eagles points, but I’m heavy on Colts moneyline.”

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The Georgia Bulldogs had dreams of grandeur heading into 2014 but again, a trip to Williams-Brice Stadium turned out to be a nightmare. The Bulldogs fell behind to the Gamecocks last Saturday and couldn’t find their way back, losing 38-35 to South Carolina as 6.5-point road favorites.

Georgia’s national title hopes are shaken, much like they were in 2012 when it lost 35-7 to the Gamecocks in Week 6 after a 5-0 start to the season. The Bulldogs, still stinging from the defeat, went out the following week and laid an egg in a 29-24 squeaker over Kentucky as 25.5-point road chalk.

Georgia finds itself in this position again in Week 4. It’s a massive 39.5-point favorite hosting the Troy Trojans Saturday. The Bulldogs definitely deserve the lofty spread, with Troy going 0-3 and losing to FCS Abilene Christian this past weekend, but will the disappointment of an all-but busted season hang over this program like a dark cloud?

Lookahead spot

Arkansas’ upcoming three-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8 (bye Week 6) could be the roughest patch of schedule any college football team will face this season. The Razorbacks visit Texas A&M, then host Alabama before the bye, and then face Georgia at home on October 18. It’s enough to turn those shrill Hog Calls into deep sobs of sorrow.

You can excuse Arkansas for looking ahead to those SEC showdowns and past Week 4 opponent, little ole Northern Illinois out of the MAC. The Huskies have had one hell of a non-conference slate, hanging 55 points on FCS Presbyterian before taking road wins at Northwestern and UNLV. The Huskies are 27th in the land in scoring and fourth overall in rushing yards, with 325.3 ground gains per game.

The Razorbacks were bowled over for 302 rushing yards in a Week 1 loss to Auburn, giving up 6.3 yards per carry. And Texas Tech – which runs the ball on less than 40 percent of its plays – still mounted 101 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry versus the Hogs last weekend. That two-touchdown spread could be too much for Arkansas to handle if they aren’t focused on a potent NIU attack.

Schedule spot

The San Diego Chargers could have easily found themselves in our letdown spot this week, coming off a massive home win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks Sunday. But, the Bolts fit right in our schedule spot as well, hopping a plane to Buffalo for an early kickoff with the Bills as 1-point road underdogs Sunday.

The Chargers kept the Seattle defense on the field and ate up time of possession to win 30-21 as 4.5-point home underdogs Sunday. As Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports points out, San Diego not only has to avoid a letdown from that huge win but suffer a 3,000-mile voyage and a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, which equals out to 10 a.m. back in California. In last season’s cross-country tours, the Chargers won at Philadelphia in Week 2 but fell at Washington and Miami, and that Dolphins game was even at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Buffalo has a ton of momentum after wins over Chicago and Miami, ranking sixth in points for and against after two weeks. The weather at Ralph Wilson Stadium is expected to be the farthest things from sun and surf of San Diego. The early forecast is calling for strong winds and rain with temperatures in the mid 60s.

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NFL opening line report: Broncos 4.5-point dogs in Super Bowl rematch

Sometimes you have to take a close look at the NFL schedule to figure out which game is the marquee matchup. But there’s no such dilemma in Week 3.

Bettors and fans get a Super Bowl rematch when the Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to loud-and-proud Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (1-1 SU and ATS) on Sunday.

Seattle steamrolled Denver in last season’s title game, winning 43-8 as a 1.5-point underdog.

This time, though, the Seahawks are favored, with the line opening at -4.5. John Lester, the lines manager at Bookmaker.eu, doesn’t expect a rout this time, but he does expect a Seattle win, with the squad aiming to bounce back from a 30-21 loss at San Diego laying 4.5 points.

"It’s the marquee game of Week 3, and everyone will be running to bet on the Super Bowl rematch,” Lester said. “I don't see the outcome being much different this time around. It will certainly be a closer game, but the Seahawks are still the team to beat, despite last weekend’s setback. They don't lose in the Northwest, especially a game of this magnitude. They will be very focused after the loss, and sharps should be on Seattle at the open of -4.5."


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2)

The NFC North is a logjam, with all four teams at 1-1 SU. Green Bay (0-1-1 ATS) at least comes in with a little steam, rallying from a 21-3 deficit on the road against the New York Jets to snare 31-24 victory and push as a 7-point chalk.

Meanwhile, Detroit (1-1 ATS) followed its 35-point outburst in a season-opening win over the New York Giants by mustering just one score in a 24-7 loss at Carolina as a 1-point pup.

"These are two teams with potent offenses but some serious problems along the offensive lines,” Lester said. “I'm still not sold on the Green Bay defense, particularly the pass rush. The Lions should be able to win the battle in the trenches, and because of that, I give them a slight nod. Everyone expects a shootout, and we opened with a total of 52.”


San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) comes in unbeaten, while San Fran (1-1 SU and ATS) dumped the home opener at its luxurious new stadium, losing 28-20 to Chicago as a 7-point fave Sunday. But Lester isn’t too concerned about the Niners, nor too impressed with the Cardinals.

"The Cardinals were a Philip Rivers fumbled snap away from losing in Week 1, and they beat a pathetic Giants team (Sunday),” Lester said. “While I like their defense, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Like most over-hyped former USC quarterbacks in the NFL, I've never had much respect for Carson Palmer.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s him or Drew Stanton (starting), the Niners deserve to be chalk here."


Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Carolina has gotten out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS, rolling Detroit 24-7 Sunday as a 7-point favorite. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has scored just nine points since holding a 27-3 halftime lead over Cleveland in the season opener. The Steelers narrowly won that contest, 30-27, failing to cash as 5.5-point chalk, and they got ripped last Thursday at Baltimore 26-6 catching 2.5 points.

"I'm a little surprised at how efficient the Panthers have been offensively,” Lester said. “I thought they would struggle throwing the ball and protecting Cam Newton, but (offensive coordinator) Mike Shula has done a heck of a job with a lot of new faces so far. We opened at Panthers -3.5 to try and bait some Pittsburgh money, and I can see this eventually dropping to the key number.”