The Bum's Major League Baseball Best Bets-News,Trends For May !

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Milwaukee at Atlanta
Brewers head to Atlanta tonight to open their series against a Braves team that is 0-6 in Mike Minor's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Milwaukee is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MAY 19

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.217; Washington (Strasburg) 15.762
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175); Over

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.659; Atlanta (Minor) 14.794
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Under

Game 955-956: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Smyly) 16.483; Cleveland (Kluber) 13.933
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under

Game 957-958: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Carroll) 15.594; Kansas City (Vargas) 14.662
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); Over

Game 959-960: Houston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.061; LA Angels (Richards) 14.144
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+185); Over




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 19

Hot pitchers
-- Strasburg is 2-1, 2.63 in his last four starts. Leake has a 1.96 RA in his last three starts.
-- Peralta is 4-2, 2.27 in his last seven starts.

-- Kluber is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts. Smyly is 1-1, 1.96 in his last three.
-- Vargas is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts.
-- Richards is 2-0, 2.18 in his last five starts. Keuchel is 2-0, 1.08 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Minor is 1-2, 4.24 in three starts this season.

-- Carroll is 0-3, 8.40 in his last three starts.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Leake 1-8; Strasburg 4-9
-- Peralta 0-8; Minor 1-3

-- Smyly 2-5; Kluber 3-9
-- Carroll 1-4; Vargas 1-9
-- Keuchel 1-8; Richards 1-8

Totals
-- Under is 8-3 in Cincinnati's last eleven road games.
-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Atlanta home games.

-- Over is 7-1-2 in last ten Cleveland games. Nine of last eleven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six White Sox games went over; eight of last ten KC games went under the total. .
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Angels' last six games. Last four Houston games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Washington won six of its last nine home games.
-- Braves won four of their last five home games.

-- Detroit won its last eleven road games.
-- Royals won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won seven of their last nine games. Astros won four of their last five.

Cold teams
-- Reds lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Brewers lost six of their last eight road games.

-- Cleveland lost five of its last six games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last eight games.




MLB

Monday, May 19

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Trend Report
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7:05 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cincinnati's last 18 games when playing on the road against Washington
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 18 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Washington is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

7:10 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 15 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. KANSAS CITY
Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 13 games when playing Chi White Sox

10:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA ANGELS
Houston is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Angels
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
LA Angels are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Houston

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, May 19


Ryan Zimmerman, Washington - Out indefinitely

Zimmerman is on the 15-day disabled list with a broken right thumb. He is taking part in baseball activities but there is no clear timetable for his return.


The A's killing it in the run differential department

If you’re the type who likes to use run differential as a quick and dirty gauge of a team’s talent, you’re probably very impressed with the Athletics thus far. Sunday’s 13-3 victory over the Indians leaves them 3.5 games ahead of the Angels for first place in the AL West. The win also brought their run differential to a staggering +95, putting them on pace for +350 over a full season. Typically, the best teams finish in the +150-200 area.

The Athletics have nine players, minimum 80 plate appearances, with an above-average wRC+ which is a Sabermetric stat that individually weights each of the various components in which a player contributes offensively. 100 is average. Reddick is close to joining the list at 94.


Giants don't know when or if Scutaro will be back

Pondering the possibility of going a full season without second baseman Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy was willing to offer a compromise of sorts Sunday.

Bochy admitted the Giants are close to a point where they must weigh the advantages of having a part-time Scutaro rather than waiting for his ailing lower back to completely heal, which may or may not ever happen.

"At some point, we've got to be honest: (What) are we going to get?" Bochy said Sunday before the Giants' 4-1 win over the Miami Marlins. "If it's a couple of days as a pinch hitter, that could work. We would be a better club by doing that. But right now we're not close to getting him to that point."

Scutaro, 38, recently spent time in Arizona, waiting for his back to heal while he attempts to stay in a semblance of baseball shape.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, May 19

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CINCINNATI (19 - 23) at WASHINGTON (23 - 20) - 7:05 PM
MIKE LEAKE (R) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 665-739 (+51.6 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 602-683 (+35.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 431-480 (+30.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 480-530 (+44.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 98-62 (+24.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MIKE LEAKE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
LEAKE is 3-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.53 and a WHIP of 1.512.
His team's record is 4-4 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-6. (-5.9 units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
STRASBURG is 1-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.909.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

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MILWAUKEE (27 - 17) at ATLANTA (23 - 19) - 7:10 PM
WILY PERALTA (R) vs. MIKE MINOR (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 13-31 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 70-34 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 70-34 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 25-8 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-17 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-11 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 18-7 (+13.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-7 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 18-11 (+11.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-17 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 73-63 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

WILY PERALTA vs. ATLANTA since 1997
PERALTA is 1-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 0.69 and a WHIP of 1.077.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

MIKE MINOR vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
MINOR is 1-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.069.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

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DETROIT (27 - 12) at CLEVELAND (19 - 25) - 7:05 PM
DREW SMYLY (L) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 14-4 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 9-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games in May games this season.
DETROIT is 14-4 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 11-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against DETROIT this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

DREW SMYLY vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
SMYLY is 0-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

COREY KLUBER vs. DETROIT since 1997
KLUBER is 1-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.80 and a WHIP of 1.486.
His team's record is 2-4 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.8 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (21 - 24) at KANSAS CITY (22 - 21) - 8:10 PM
SCOTT CARROLL (R) vs. JASON VARGAS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 84-123 (-30.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 34-61 (-23.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 35-60 (-20.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 82-118 (-27.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 43-77 (-28.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
VARGAS is 21-9 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in May games since 1997. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 16-29 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 5-13 (-10.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)

SCOTT CARROLL vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.

JASON VARGAS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
VARGAS is 1-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 6.43 and a WHIP of 1.457.
His team's record is 2-4 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-1. (+4.0 units)

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HOUSTON (16 - 28) at LA ANGELS (24 - 19) - 10:05 PM
DALLAS KEUCHEL (L) vs. GARRETT RICHARDS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 122-245 (-61.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-35 (-20.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +200 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 96-155 (-45.6 Units) against the money line in road games in May games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 119-238 (-61.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 23-80 (-36.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 50-53 (-21.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 8-17 (-12.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 38-53 (-27.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 94-101 (-25.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 70-78 (-23.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 3-1 (+1.5 Units) against HOUSTON this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
KEUCHEL is 2-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 6.65 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 2-2 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

GARRETT RICHARDS vs. HOUSTON since 1997
RICHARDS is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-3. (-3.4 units)

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, May 19


Hitters' wind in the forecast as Royals host White Sox

Pitchers for the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals will have hitters' wind to compete with for the game at Kauffman Stadium Monday.

According to DailyBaseballData.com, wind will blow out to left field at 17 mph.

The Royals are tabbed as -175 home faves for the game, with Scott Carroll scheduled to start for the visiting White Sox and Jason Vargas slated to take the mound for the Royals.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, May 19

Cincinnati at Washington, 7:05 ET
Leake: CINCINNATI 98-62 after a loss
Strasburg: WASHINGTON 25-29 after having won 3 of their last 4 games

Milwaukee at Atlanta, 7:10 ET
Peralta: MILWAUKEE 29-18 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125
Minor: 11-2 OVER at home when the total is 7 or less

Detroit at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Smyly: DETROIT 10-2 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125
Kluber: CLEVELAND is 10-0 OVER after a loss by 4 runs or more

Chicago at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Carroll: CHI WHITE SOX 43-77 after a loss
Vargas: 21-9 TSR in May games

Houston at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Keuchel: HOUSTON is 17-55 as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Richards: LA ANGELS are 44-22 after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, May 19


Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez fighting through tendinitis

Carlos Gonzalez went 2-for-4 with an RBI in the Rockies' victory Sunday, but the Gold Glove left fielder still isn't quite himself.

Blame the lingering tendinitis in his left knee.

"I feel a little better; still fighting with that knee," CarGo said. "I think it's showing in stolen bases. It's kind of slowed down a lot. But I continue to get treatment every day, and hopefully it gets better and I can bring that speed back to the club."

Gonzalez is hitting .275 with seven home runs and 29 RBIs, but he has just two stolen bases.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, May 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 7:05 PM ET Detroit +104 500 *****
Cleveland - Over 7 500


Cincinnati - 7:05 PM ET Washington -180 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Washington - Under 6.5 500


Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -125 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Atlanta - Under 7 500


Chi. White Sox - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +182 500 *****
Kansas City - Over 8.5 500


Houston - 10:05 PM ET Houston +170 500 *****
LA Angels - Over 7.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Record as of MONDAY Night :

34 - 32 .......................+ 4.79

20 -30 ....................... - 19.15

17 - 24........................- 5,79

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

May 20, 2014


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Indians are 10-0 since April 30, 2013 at home after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1005.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 10-0 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1000.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 15-0 (+$1,310) since September 16, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had at least five more team-left-on-base than their opponent.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Rockies are 0-10 since August 26, 2009 as a dog after an extra inning win for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Justin Verlander starts the Tigers are 0-7 since April 18, 2013 as a 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits on the road for a net profit of $1261 when playing against.

[StarDust Bum]

Red Sox look to end skid

May 20, 2014


Toronto (23-22) at Boston (20-23)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Boston -140, Toronto +130, Total: 9.5

The Red Sox attempt to snap their four-game losing streak in the first of three games at home against the Blue Jays on Tuesday night.

Toronto has looked solid this year and has won five of its past seven contests coming into this game, which putting the club just one game back of the lead in the tight AL East. Over the weekend the Jays faced the pitching-deprived Rangers, winning 2-of-3 games with a couple of strong pitching performances of their own. They could not complete the sweep on Sunday though, losing 6-2 as they committed four errors, which was the most in a single game this year. 3B Juan Francisco (.292 BA) has been tearing the cover off the ball lately and was 3-for-10 with two home runs in the series.

Boston has really struggled to find a rhythm in 2014 after winning the World Series, and is coming off a brutal sweep in Detroit this past weekend. The team totaled just three runs over the three-game set, as their starting pitchers gave up 12 runs (11 ER) in just 16.1 innings of work. With just 16 hits over the series, the Red Sox offense looked dismal, and their 1-through-3 hitters in the order were just 6-for-33 (.182) with five strikeouts and 0 RBI. This game will be a battle of lefties as Toronto sends LHP J.A. Happ (2-1, 3.57 ERA) to the mound to face Boston LHP Felix Doubront (2-3, 4.54 ERA). The Blue Jays have actually preferred playing on the road this year, going 13-11 in away games (10-11 at home), while the Red Sox are just 10-14 at Fenway Park in 2014.

The first series of the year between these clubs went to Boston, two games to one, but since the start of 2012, the two teams have split 40 games (20-20) between each other. Also, Toronto has been better when playing at Fenway Park, going 11-8 there over that time. Bettors should be aware that the Red Sox are just 13-26 (.333) in home games with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse in their previous 10 games since the start of 2012. On the other hand, they are an impressive 61-30 (.670) after a loss since the beginning of last year. OF Colby Rasmus (hamstring) continues to ride the DL for the Blue Jays and 3B Will Middlebrooks (finger) will be out for Boston as he continues his own stint on the 15-day DL.

J.A. Happ has bounced around between the majors and minors, as well as the bullpen and rotation, so far this season. He has pitched six games with the Blue Jays this year, three in relief, and while his ERA is solid so far, his WHIP is a horrendous 1.75 because he is walking 6.1 batters per nine innings. The lefty has also allowed four home runs in just 17.2 innings (2.0 HR/9). Happ is coming off one of his better performances this year though, as he went six innings against the Indians on Thursday while allowing six hits and one run. The run came off of a solo homer while he struck out four and walked just two as he earned a win. Happ has not been successful against this Boston team in his career, going 1-2 (2-2 team record) with a 5.06 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He was horrendous against them in their last meeting when he lasted just 3.2 frames and gave up just three hits and two runs, but walked an incredible seven batters in the loss.

2B Dustin Pedroia has had the most success against the lefty in the Red Sox lineup, going 3-for-7 with an RBI. OF Jonny Gomes and OF Shane Victorino have combined to go just 2-for-15 in the matchup, but have also had patience and walked seven times. 1B Mike Napoli is 1-for-4 against Happ and has a double to go along with three strikeouts against the lefty. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has been awful in 2014, going 5-9 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.53 WHIP while converting 12-of-18 saves (67%). The numbers are even worse on the road (5.71 ERA, 1.58 WHIP). Closer Casey Janssen (0.00 ERA, 3 saves) has helped the bullpen since returning from the DL and has been perfect in his first three save opportunities while allowing only one hit over four innings.

Felix Doubront had a rough start for the Red Sox this year, giving up 11 runs in his first three starts (14.2 IP), but has since looked much better and is coming off arguably his best start of the year. While facing the Twins on Wednesday, Doubront earned his second win of the season after pitching 6.1 frames and allowing just seven hits and a run while striking out five batters (1 walk). It was his second consecutive start of going 5+ innings and giving up just one run. One worry is that he has seen his strikeout rate drop in each of the past three seasons with 9.3 K/9 in 2012, 7.7 K/9 in 2013, and now he is at 6.3 K/9 this year. Toronto has given him some trouble in his career, as he is 2-2 against them (4-3 team record) with a 4.77 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while giving up nine home runs in his past six starts (34.2 IP). Three of those homers have come off the bat of OF Jose Bautista, who is just 3-for-14 in all against Doubront with each of his long balls being solo homers.

1B Edwin Encarnacion (5-for-14, 1 HR, 4 RBI), SS Jose Reyes (6-for-15, 1 HR, 2 doubles, 2 RBI) and 3B Brett Lawrie (5-for-16, 2 doubles) have all been tremendous in this matchup. Meanwhile, DH Adam Lind is just 2-for-12 with three strikeouts against Doubront in his career. Boston has always sported one of the top bullpens, and this year the club is 6-7 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while converting 11-of-14 of their save chances (79%). Koji Uehara (1.08 ERA, 9 saves) has been one of the most dominant closers over the past two seasons and is perfect in saves this year while sporting an incredible 25 K's and three walks in 16.2 innings of work.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Cincinnati at Washington
After taking the series opener in 15 innings (4-3) last night, Cincinnati comes into Game 2 with a 4-0 record in Johnny Cueto's last 4 starts against the Nationals. Cincinnati is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 20

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.742; Washington (Fister) 14.338
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 16.353; Miami (Desclalfani) 15.561
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Over

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.759; Atlanta (Teheran) 14.622
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Over

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 16.512; NY Mets (Montero) 15.112
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under

Game 909-910: Arizona at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 15.357; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.228
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+170); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.525; Colorado (Morales) 15.144
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under

Game 913-914: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.412; Cleveland (Bauer) 14.468
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Under

Game 915-916: Oakland at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Pomeranz) 14.263; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 15.307
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over

Game 917-918: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 14.626; Boston (Doubront) 15.980
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 919-920: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.245; Texas (Lewis) 15.140
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105); Over

Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 15.889; Kansas City (Ventura) 15.067
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-210); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+185); Over

Game 923-924: Houston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 14.889; LA Angels (Skaggs) 16.403
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Under

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.000; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.956
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 927-928: NY Yankees at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.511; Cubs (Hammel) 15.011
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); N/A

Game 929-930: Minnesota at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.249; San Diego (Kennedy) 14.311
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+155); Over

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 20

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CINCINNATI (20 - 23) at WASHINGTON (23 - 21) - 7:05 PM
JOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. DOUG FISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 55-56 (-18.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 666-739 (+53.3 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 603-683 (+37.3 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 432-480 (+32.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 481-530 (+46.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
FISTER is 3-10 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 (+1.7 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
CUETO is 5-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.99 and a WHIP of 1.329.
His team's record is 6-2 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.5 units)

DOUG FISTER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

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PHILADELPHIA (19 - 22) at MIAMI (23 - 22) - 7:10 PM
A.J. BURNETT (R) vs. ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 173-192 (-40.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 65-84 (-24.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BURNETT is 83-117 (-40.9 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 68-97 (-34.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 53-83 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
BURNETT is 37-59 (-27.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 17-5 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MIAMI is 17-5 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
MIAMI is 13-4 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 334-350 (+47.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-0 (+3.3 Units) against MIAMI this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

A.J. BURNETT vs. MIAMI since 1997
BURNETT is 1-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 1.96 and a WHIP of 1.528.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

ANTHONY DESCLAFANI vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
No recent starts.

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MILWAUKEE (27 - 18) at ATLANTA (24 - 19) - 7:10 PM
YOVANI GALLARDO (R) vs. JULIO TEHERAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 13-32 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 71-34 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 71-34 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 91-44 (+25.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 26-8 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-18 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-12 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 18-8 (+12.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 18-12 (+10.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-18 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 73-64 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 78-74 (+10.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. ATLANTA since 1997
GALLARDO is 5-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.79 and a WHIP of 1.030.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.2 units)

JULIO TEHERAN vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
TEHERAN is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.298.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

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LA DODGERS (23 - 22) at NY METS (20 - 23) - 7:10 PM
JOSH BECKETT (R) vs. RAFAEL MONTERO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 18-27 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
BECKETT is 3-12 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BECKETT is 4-15 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BECKETT is 3-12 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BECKETT is 2-10 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BECKETT is 5-15 (-13.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 31-14 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 11-27 (-14.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 42-60 (-23.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 42-60 (-23.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 41-66 (-32.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 30-43 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 44-59 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 32-54 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JOSH BECKETT vs. NY METS since 1997
BECKETT is 6-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.042.
His team's record is 9-5 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-6. (+1.5 units)

RAFAEL MONTERO vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

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ARIZONA (18 - 28) at ST LOUIS (23 - 21) - 8:15 PM
BRONSON ARROYO (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 15-1 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 104-60 (+27.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 64-29 (+28.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 70-28 (+24.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
WAINWRIGHT is 65-29 (+25.0 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BRONSON ARROYO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
ARROYO is 8-16 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.59 and a WHIP of 1.325.
His team's record is 13-23 (-9.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 14-20. (-6.9 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. ARIZONA since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 5-3 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.54 and a WHIP of 1.329.
His team's record is 5-3 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-7. (-6.9 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (28 - 17) at COLORADO (25 - 20) - 8:40 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. FRANKLIN MORALES (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 12-0 (+12.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season.
COLORADO is 12-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
COLORADO is 29-17 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-17 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 101-92 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 61-44 (+15.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-17 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 978-814 (+114.9 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 76-57 (+18.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
COLORADO is 42-76 (-30.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 40-57 (-21.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 3-3 (+0.2 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. COLORADO since 1997
BUMGARNER is 8-6 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.332.
His team's record is 11-6 (+4.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-6. (+2.4 units)

FRANKLIN MORALES vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MORALES is 1-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 5.59 and a WHIP of 1.655.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.1 units)

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DETROIT (27 - 13) at CLEVELAND (20 - 25) - 7:05 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
VERLANDER is 22-24 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 21-23 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 10-16 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 5-12 (-17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 112-96 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-5 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 9-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games in May games this season.
DETROIT is 14-5 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 11-3 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 (+1.3 Units) against DETROIT this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 18-14 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.253.
His team's record is 19-17 (-4.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 15-20. (-8.0 units)

TREVOR BAUER vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

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OAKLAND (28 - 16) at TAMPA BAY (19 - 26) - 7:10 PM
DREW POMERANZ (L) vs. JAKE ODORIZZI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 126-85 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 15-2 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
OAKLAND is 7-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
OAKLAND is 16-6 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 10-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
OAKLAND is 75-49 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 146-100 (+44.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 76-48 (+18.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 107-64 (+28.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 19-26 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

DREW POMERANZ vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

JAKE ODORIZZI vs. OAKLAND since 1997
No recent starts.

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TORONTO (23 - 22) at BOSTON (20 - 23) - 7:10 PM
J.A. HAPP (L) vs. FELIX DOUBRONT (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 61-30 (+25.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 10-15 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BOSTON is 38-49 (-26.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-23 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 67-67 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against TORONTO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

J.A. HAPP vs. BOSTON since 1997
HAPP is 1-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.734.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.0 units)

FELIX DOUBRONT vs. TORONTO since 1997
DOUBRONT is 2-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.77 and a WHIP of 1.462.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

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SEATTLE (21 - 22) at TEXAS (21 - 23) - 8:05 PM
HISASHI IWAKUMA (R) vs. COLBY LEWIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-15 (-11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TEXAS is 65-33 (+22.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
IWAKUMA is 31-21 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
IWAKUMA is 30-20 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 107-97 (-26.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 4-3 (+1.4 Units) against SEATTLE this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

HISASHI IWAKUMA vs. TEXAS since 1997
IWAKUMA is 3-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.098.
His team's record is 4-4 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.1 units)

COLBY LEWIS vs. SEATTLE since 1997
LEWIS is 6-5 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.264.
His team's record is 9-7 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-11. (-7.8 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (22 - 24) at KANSAS CITY (22 - 22) - 8:10 PM
ANDRE RIENZO (R) vs. YORDANO VENTURA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 85-123 (-28.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 35-61 (-21.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 83-118 (-25.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 504-526 (+37.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHI WHITE SOX are 352-347 (+34.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
RIENZO is 5-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
RIENZO is 5-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 16-30 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 5-14 (-12.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 2-2 (+0.9 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.1 Units)

ANDRE RIENZO vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
RIENZO is 1-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.083.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

YORDANO VENTURA vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
VENTURA is 0-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.750.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

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HOUSTON (17 - 28) at LA ANGELS (24 - 20) - 10:05 PM
SCOTT FELDMAN (R) vs. TYLER SKAGGS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 123-245 (-59.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 28-78 (-36.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 120-238 (-59.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 24-80 (-34.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FELDMAN is 6-19 (-14.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 102-104 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 138-128 (-68.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 50-54 (-23.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 2-8 (-8.5 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
LA ANGELS are 94-102 (-27.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 70-79 (-25.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 46-56 (-19.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-3 (+0.2 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

SCOTT FELDMAN vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
FELDMAN is 5-5 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 5.23 and a WHIP of 1.419.
His team's record is 6-7 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-7. (-1.1 units)

TYLER SKAGGS vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SKAGGS is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.625.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

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BALTIMORE (22 - 20) at PITTSBURGH (18 - 25) - 7:05 PM
MIGUEL GONZALEZ (R) vs. FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 115-96 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 21-10 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 14-2 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 115-96 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 76-55 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 344-355 (+47.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
LIRIANO is 15-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LIRIANO is 15-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 204-169 (+43.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 165-189 (+36.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 101-89 (+34.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 23-14 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games in May games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 30-14 (+18.2 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 184-145 (+42.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-9 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 96-72 (+30.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 40-27 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 15-24 (-10.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

MIGUEL GONZALEZ vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
No recent starts.


FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
LIRIANO is 2-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.541.
His team's record is 2-5 (-5.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.7 units)

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NY YANKEES (23 - 20) at CHICAGO CUBS (15 - 27) - 8:05 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. JASON HAMMEL (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 81-124 (-25.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 40-63 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 15-38 (-17.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 5-19 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 81-124 (-25.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 198-215 (-76.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 54-97 (-35.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 26-54 (-25.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
TANAKA is 1-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.375.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

JASON HAMMEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
HAMMEL is 3-5 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.448.
His team's record is 6-8 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.5 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (21 - 21) at SAN DIEGO (21 - 24) - 10:10 PM
KEVIN CORREIA (R) vs. IAN KENNEDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CORREIA is 4-18 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 24-22 (+16.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 79-70 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 74-91 (+22.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 27-28 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 42-35 (+15.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CORREIA is 100-97 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 98-95 (+22.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 57-47 (+24.7 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KEVIN CORREIA vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
CORREIA is 3-3 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.578.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
KENNEDY is 1-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.69 and a WHIP of 0.913.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 20

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 4-0, 0.88 in his last six starts.
-- DeSclafani won his first MLB start, allowing two runs in six IP.
-- Beckett is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
-- Wainwright is 5-1, 2.34 in his last seven starts. Arroyo is 3-0, 0.77 in his last three starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.

-- Verlander is 5-1, 3.91 in his last seven starts.
-- Pomeranz is 2-0, 0.00 in two starts, throwing five innings each in two home starts. Odorizzi is 1-0, 0.00 (11 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Doubront is 1-0, 1.54 in his last couple starts. Happ is 2-1, 3.38 in his three starts this season.
-- Ventura has a 2.27 RA in his last five starts. Rienzo is 3-0, 4.60 in five starts this season.
-- Iwakuma is 2-0, 1.59 in three starts this season.

-- Tanaka is 5-0, 1.84 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Fister is 0-1, 6.35 in two starts this season.
-- Burnett is 0-2, 8.18 in his last two starts.
-- Teheran is 0-2, 4.42 in his last three starts. Gallardo is 0-2, 5.50 in his last three outings.
-- Montero lost his MLB debut, allowing three runs in six IP.
-- Morales is 0-2, 8.44 in his last three starts.

-- Bauer allowed two runs in six IP in his only '14 start, April 9.
-- Lewis is 1-2, 7.54 in his three home starts.
-- Feldman is 0-1, 5.82 in his last three starts. Skaggs is 1-1, 7.56 in his last three outings.

-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.27 in his last eight starts. Gonzalez is 0-2, 4.63 in his last four starts.
-- Hammel is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts. Former Padre Correia is 1-3, 9.00 in his last four starts.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Cueto 1-9; Fister 1-2
-- Burnett 2-9; DeSclafani 0-1
-- Gallardo 2-9; Teheran 2-9
-- Beckett 1-7; Montero 0-1
-- Arroyo 3-8; Wainwright 2-9
-- Bumgarner 2-9; Morales 2-8

-- Verlander 2-9; Bauer 1-1
-- Pomeranz 0-2; Odorizzi 0-8
-- Happ 0-3; Doubront 2-8
-- Iwakuma 0-3; Lewis 2-6
-- Rienzo 2-5; Ventura 2-8
-- Feldman 1-6; Skaggs 4-7

-- Gonzalez 1-7; Liriano 3-9
-- Tanaka 2-8; Hammel 1-8
-- Correia 2-8; Kennedy 2-9

Totals
-- Under is 8-4 in Cincinnati's last twelve road games.
-- Six of last eight Dodger games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Atlanta home games.
-- Seven of last nine Miami games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Colorado home games went over.

-- Over is 8-1-2 in last 11 Cleveland games. Nine of last twelve Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Oakland games went over the total.
-- Last eight games at Fenway Park stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Texas home games stayed under total.
--Six of last seven White Sox games went over; eight of last 11 KC games went under the total. .
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Angels' last seven games. Four of last five Houston games went over the total.

-- Last five Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Last five games at Wrigley Field stayed under total.
-- Four of last five games at Petco Park went over.

Hot teams
-- Braves won five of their last six home games.
-- Marlins won 11 of their last 12 home games.
-- Cardinals won four of their last five games. Arizona won four of its last five road games.
-- Colorado won 12 of its last 16 home games. Giants won eight of last eleven road games.

-- Detroit won 11 of its last 12 road games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last six road games.
-- Oakland won nine of its last ten games.
-- Angels won seven of their last ten games. Astros won five of their last six.

-- Bronx Bombers won five of last seven away games.
-- San Diego won six of its last nine games. Twins won five of last seven.

Cold teams
-- Reds lost seven of their last nine road games. Washington is 6-9 in its last 15 games.
-- Mets lost four of their last five games. Dodgers lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last nine road games.

-- Cleveland lost five of its last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight home games.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last six games.
-- Kansas City is 4-7 in its last eleven home games. White Sox lost six of their last nine games.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games. Texas lost six of last eight.

-- Pittsburgh lost five of its last seven games. Orioles lost six of last eight.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last fourteen games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Tuesday, May 20

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Trend Report
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7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Washington is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

7:05 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Detroit is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Cleveland is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games when playing Detroit

7:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

7:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
NY Mets are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Mets's last 13 games at home

7:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
Oakland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

7:10 PM
TORONTO vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games

7:10 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ATLANTA
Milwaukee is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MIAMI
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games at home

8:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Texas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Seattle

8:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. CHI CUBS
NY Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. KANSAS CITY
Chi White Sox are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games
Kansas City is 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

8:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games

8:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. COLORADO
San Francisco is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
San Francisco is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Colorado is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against San Francisco

10:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games
LA Angels are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Houston

10:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SAN DIEGO
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Tuesday, May 20

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MLB weekend series: Five key takeaways
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It is time to once again peer through the weekend MLB results from Point Blank range, isolating the key issues that can put you way ahead of the game in the days ahead.

Cardinals – Mike Matheny/Trevor Rosenthal, and now what?

There will a lot of second-guessing about Matheny using Rosenthal four straight days, with the implosion that took place Sunday vs. Atlanta as the result. And there should be. The focus here will be on just why it happened, and also the implications for the long-term. Rosenthal was already off to an awkward pace for the 2014 season even before Sunday, and much like last week’s take on Francisco Rodriguez in this spot, there are warning signs that need to be filed away.

First is the open question about whether or not that brilliant post-season run by the Cardinal right-hander was the beginning of a career as a dominant closer, or a dangerous case of being over-used. At the age of 23 Ronsethal had a strong regular, mostly being used as a set-up man, until he recorded three saves in the September pennant run. Then came October and that 1-0/0.00 with four saves, when he did not allow a run over 10 appearances and 11 2/3 innings; the catalyst a dominating count of 18 K’s vs. only four hits and one walk allowed. But when the campaign finally ended it added up to 91 outings for a young guy that throws hard, an exhausting count for someone that came up through the system so fast (only 20 combined appearances at AA and AAA).

Fast forward to this season, and the warning signs were there before Sunday - he had walked 11 batters in 17 1/3 frames, and had been scored on seven different times. But four times he was credited with a save despite allowing a run, so no alarms went off. Then came this last sequence, one that now leaves him much worse for wear at 0-2/4.98 with a 1.43 WHIP. Contrast the ERA with 2.78, and the WHIP with 1.10, from 2013, and note the alarming rise in walks-per-9 from 2.4 to 5.8.

There are a couple of keys. First that Matheny recognizes that with his limited offense there are going to be a lot of close calls, so he needs a heavy load from Rosenthal – 38.6 percent of all St. Louis games have been decided by a single run. Second is that he lacks confidence in his other relievers, which is a genuine issue to watch - the problem this weekend was not necessarily the four-in-four on Sunday; it was Rosenthal pitching on Friday and Saturday when Matheny had other options. He just did not trust them.

On Thursday it was 26 pitches over 1 2/3 innings to close out the Cubs, two days after a 22-pitch save. It was the fourth time already Rosenthal had worked multiple innings, and Friday off would have been a good idea, especially with a 5-2 lead into the 9th against Atlanta. Matheny had several other right-handers available (Kevin Siegrist faced four batters on Thursday; no other reliever had worked since Tuesday), and the Braves sport a .221/.279/.345 vs. right handers, rating next-to-last in the Majors in each category. Due up were the #5-#7 hitters in the order, so it was not a spot that necessarily called for a closer, especially a tired one. Yet Rosenthal got the call. Then on to Saturday afternoon for a night-to-day setting, and it was 4-1 into the 9th, with another prime chance for Matheny to use someone other than his closer, to let him get fresh for Sunday. The phone rang again.

Now we all know how it turned out – Rosenthal threw 75 pitches over four days, which not only takes a physical toll, but can become a mental issue as well off of that Sunday failure. He has now been called on 33 times over the last 67 Cardinal games, a mind-numbing count, especially with 2013 being his first full season in the Majors. As scintillating as his run was last October there is one chilling takeaway for today – only Houston’s Brad Peacock has a higher walks-per-9 rate in 2014.

Red Sox –The OF Production, or lack thereof

While Rosenthal’s post-season in 2013 will be memorable to Cardinal fans, many others were looking forward to Tigers/Red Sox in Fenway this weekend, their first rematch since Boston won 4-2 in a dramatic ALCS in which all but one game had a margin of a single run in the seventh inning or latter. But there was no such drama this weekend, a 3-0 Detroit sweep by a combined 10 runs, with the Red Sox only managing one extra-base hit. It leaves them looking up at .500 at 20-22, and there are clear indications that the break-even mark may be their plateau. There just is not enough outfield production for much more than that.

Great teams have a combination of power and speed in the OF. Good teams will have at least one of those attributes. But what happens when you possess neither? As a team the Boston offensive slash line is an ugly .240/.321/.365, with that latter SLG rating #23. But as for making it up on the bases, not only are the 10 Red Sox steals #29, but having been caught seven times the success rate is historically bad. The last thing any Boston fan wants to hear is that Jacoby Ellsbury has more steals than their entire team (11), and has only been caught twice.

The issue is in the OF, and the numbers are shocking for being this deep into the season. The six-player OF corps of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mike Carp, Johnny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Grady Sizemore are at a collective .215, with four HR’s and 36 rbi’s over 362 at-bats. There are 98 individual players with at last four HR’s, and five that have more rbi’s. The combined slash line reads .215/.294/.323, which makes this group the equivalent of Jason Castro (.216)/Marcell Ozuna (.293)/Matt Carpenter (.324) so far. And this is having played 24 of 43 games in Fenway Park! Want more fun? Their strikeout-out rate of 23.8 percent would rate them #135 of 176 qualifying hitters. It is one thing to whiff a lot if you have power, but…

Eventually the batting average will come up a bit, but this is a group that will remain short on power and speed, from positions at which those items are necessary to compete. The markets have not grasped this yet, with a 26-15-2 Under tally across all Boston games, and it could take awhile for the realities of the 2014 edition to set in.

Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw’s “corrections”

There should be no concerns about the health of Kershaw – in his first two games back off of the DL he worked to a 1.93 ERA, with 18 K’s and not a single walk. So what is one to make of that disaster at Arizona on Saturday night? Perhaps not all that much, given the specific nature of the performance (three triples in one inning has an extreme Chase Field geometric flair to it), and the fact that other pitchers that same night allowed 18 runs on 27 hits. There were seven HR’s in the game; Kershaw did not allow any of them. What might be the most important takeaway is the way that he has bounced back off of bad games in the past. No one in the sport has been better, and perhaps no player in any sport.

Over the last 4+ seasons the Dodger ace has allowed four runs or more 26 times. After the first 25 he has followed up with a 14-1/2.00 in the ensuing start, a significant sample of 188 1/3 innings (essentially a full season’s worth). You will almost always have to pay retail when Kershaw pitches, often to an extreme, but the next time out the markets may be a little less inclined to back him out of concerns from that Arizona loss. His history indicates that you should not have those concerns.

Rockies – Jorge De La Rosa loves Coors (Field, that is)

In truth, whether de la Rosa makes Coors his libation of choice is not known. But his fondness for the ballpark is becoming a unique story, and one that continues to fall under the market radar. After flirting with a no-hitter against San Diego on Friday night, he raised his career W/L at Coors Field to 38-12. How significant is that? From the Elias Sports Bureau, only two active pitchers opened with a better record in their first 50 decisions at a home park, Tim Hudson going 39-11 in Oakland, and Max Scherzer’s 39-11 run in Detroit.

What is particularly intriguing is de la Rosa’s run at Coors since coming off of Tommy John surgery. Over the past two seasons it has been an electric 13-1/2.77, with only five HR’s and 33 walks allowed over 104 innings. Those are shockingly good numbers from a park that has led the Majors in scoring by a wide margin through that span, and had you backed de la Rosa through each of those 18 home starts you would have pocketed a tidy +1366. The key has been coming back from injury with a vastly-improved ground-ball rate – his 56.1 percent this season is #8 of 105 qualifying pitchers, and makes him a much different pitcher than the one with a 45.7 career mark in that category.

But now for the confusing part. The Colorado lefty has worked to an 8-8/4.43 on the road in that same span, including 49 walks over 113 2/3 innings. That major ERA gap is based in large part on the inflation of one full walk per nine innings more than at home. Is there anything in baseball logic that tells us that a pitcher should actually perform far better at Coors than at other venues, especially in terms of throwing strikes and not being afraid of contact? No. But logic does not always explain what a confidence level can do, and that is something that can permeate the Rockies when de la Rosa is starting a home game – since August 1st of 2013 they have out-scored the opposition by 36 runs over the eight games that he has thrown the first pitch.

Athletics - Scott Kazmir’s “Second Act”

Once upon a time, Kazmir had great stuff, but some games only hoped to find the strike zone, laboring to high pitch counts even in his better seasons. On Saturday night he showed that he now understands the strike zone so well that he challenged home plate umpire Jerry Layne on his interpretations of that rectangle, and was quickly ejected. It has been quite a ride, and to best understand the current realities let’s go back through it.

In 2010 it appeared the Kazmir might have reached his nadir, toiling to a 9-15/5.94 with the Angels at an MLB-worst 4.7 walks-per-9. Surgery limited him to just one appearance and 1.2 innings over 2011-12 combined, but a rigorous rehab program brought him back to life in 2013, when he worked to a 10-9/4.04 with Cleveland, and a career best 2.7 walks-per-9. This season it has been a 5-1/2.39 getaway with Oakland, and with over 200 innings since his return from injury, it may be time to move all numbers from 2011 and earlier to a different file.

Kazmir’s control has been even better than his 2013 reincarnation, with the walks-per-9 down to 2.1. His career charts will still show a 3.9. Meanwhile his ground-ball rate of 52 percent is also a career best, and bears no resemblance to the full-body 39.7. So the savvy move is to only evaluate the A’s lefty based on those past two seasons – it is one thing to be performing better than in the past, but he is also performing at such a different style that it renders a big chunk of his career as being largely meaningless in terms of current projections.

It also matters that Kazmir is in a great setting in Oakland, where scents of October are already in the air. The A’s are 8-1 in his starts, out-scoring the opposition by 35 runs. They are #1 in the Majors in both PADE and BABIP allowed (.258), and about half of his starts will come from a pitcher-friendly home mound. Kazmir has not thrown more than 106 pitches in a game, and before being tossed early at Cleveland, half of his eight starts checked in at 13.7 PPI or less. In 2010, the last season of his “other” career, his lowest PPI over 28 starts was 14.6. Despite throwing his first Major League pitch in 2004 Kazmir is still only 30 years old, and his “Second Act” could have quite a long run on the stage. The key is that it is not a sequel, and should not be treated as such.