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Saturday, May 31
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Midweek Series – Five Key Takeaways
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is time to once again round the bases of the MLB Weekday Series from Point Blank range, isolating key edges that can put you far ahead of the game in the days ahead.
Dodgers – Josh Beckett, and what’s next
While Beckett’s no-hitter at Philadelphia on Sunday certainly came as a surprise, he has been around long enough that not many will be in a hurry to adjust their power ratings. He is not going to be considered a “find”. If anything, there are some metrics that will lead some in the marketplace to want to play against him, with a .211 BABIP and 85.4 percent LOB rate that are extreme baseball fortune through his nine starts, and especially on Friday, off of those 128 no-no pitches. But there is genuinely something good going on here that shows evidence of being sustainable, which will matter over the course of the season.
Beckett was on a Hall of Fame arc until 2010, when injuries began to take a toll. Injuries can wreck the career of a pitcher in The Show, and after he underwent surgery last July for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (a rib was removed that had been pressuring a nerve), the Dodgers were not entirely optimistic (hence, Dan Haren and Paul Maholm). But Beckett worked hard to rehab, and his velocity counts show him to be at full health – his last pitch that struck out Chase Utley on Sunday was clocked at 94 mph. Not bad, as the 128th offering.
Here is the key – because of a couple of trips to the DL, Beckett only worked 534 1/3 innings from 2010-2013. In that same span, there were 21 starters that worked over 800, and Beckett’s count checks in at #85. Could that lighter workload have actually enhanced his ability to pitch longer into his career, instead of the injuries short-circuiting it? It is an intriguing notion. And from a statistical standpoint it might be savvy to hit “delete” for 2013, with his last five starts tangling up data-bases with an 0-3/6.75 when he was clearly damaged goods (as a rule of thumb, bad outings by a pitcher before he goes on the DL need to be discounted in your data-bases).
Beckett has a lot of savvy on the mound, including the pressure of 13 post-season starts at 7-3/3.07. That understanding has him using his curveball more, and his sinker less, at this stage, and while the draining pitch count at Philadelphia could be a short-term issue, the confidence gained from that outing could be a major plus over time. Yes, the ensuing BABIBP and LOB rates will not allow his ERA to stay where it is. But there is another statistical takeaway that adds legitimacy to what he has accomplished so far – of the 108 pitchers that have worked 50 IP or more, his difficulty of batters faced (“DBF”) is #3. He has faced a collective OPS of .744, with only six teams posting a mark above that.
Red Sox – John Lackey, and another tale of Beckett
No, this is not going to be a tale of the Red Sox right-hander in a “Waiting for Godot” scenario, but instead a comparison with Josh Beckett, because there is much in common, and each could bring some value over the course of the summer. Both are veteran right-handers with a lot of savvy through their experience (Lackey has 104 innings over 19 post-season appearances), but may have had the rare fortune of injuries pro-longing their careers, instead of shortening hem. And again there is a case of discarding some counter-productive statistics from a time in which someone was pitching hurt, in order to have a better database.
Lackey’s career could have been over after 2011, a 12-12/6.41 campaign for the Red Sox that should have ended much earlier than it did – an elbow that was going to need Tommy John surgery had nothing left down the stretch, with an 0-3/8.22 over his last six starts that was keyed by 43 hits vs. only 17 K’s. Highlight those games in your data-base, then hit delete, because they do not measure his ability in any meaningful way.
Going through rehab at the age of 33 is not easy. But Lackey did that in 2012, and for as arduous as those processes are, at the same time it was saving his arm from a year of MLB innings. He was slow out of the gate in his 2013 return, opening 1-4/4.05, but then regained the form of his best years, and it was capped by a 2.77 over 25 post-season frames. Counting that October run he is at 3.39 over 286 IP since his return, with 249 K’s vs. only 60 walks. Only once in his 10 pre-surgery seasons did he sport a lower ERA.
The key is that there is evidence that Lackey may be getting even better. His K’s-per-9 are at 8.5 so far, compared to a career 6.8. His walks-per-9 are 1.8, vs. a 3.0 previously. A .322 BABIP tells us that there has not been any geometry in his allowance, although that does factor this misfortunate of pitching in front of a Boston defense that is dead last at .318 in the category. And he has been doing this against a high level of competition – of the 50 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 IP, his DBF is #18. The latter lends added weight to a current xFIP of 3.13 that is a career best, yet something the markets are not appreciating.
Rays – Evan Longoria’s power decline
The Rays have made this column several times already, all for the wrong reasons, and it has added up to a 23-31 mark through the first third of the season. Much of that has been about the injuries that hampered the starting rotation in the early going, which was forcing Joe Madden to deftly juggle his bullpen, and also to occasionally have to use David Price too long in games (his follow-ups from high pitch counts remain problematical). The last thing they needed were problems at the plate, and while the good news is that Ben Zobrist returns this weekend, the bad is that Longoria’s power has been missing.
Longoria was sensational in 2013, a .269/.343/.498, with 32 home runs, plus superb defense. It was a Top 10 campaign among position players through just about any of the advanced WAR-type metrics. At only 28 entering this season, one could make a case that his best was still ahead. But at the one-third mark of the 2014 schedule here are the numbers - .264/.325/.377, with only five HR’s. The .264 would be his career low, despite being amped a bit by a .319 BABIP. The on-base is far below his career .355, with a 7.7 percent walk rate drastically off of the 10.7 precedent.
But the real issue is the power. Longoria’s career SLG’s have been .531, .526, .507, .495, .527 and .498. That is a model of consistently, so the current .377 is a cause for alarm this deep into a season – slap hitters like Brett Gardner (.384) and Dee Gordon (.378 to Thursday) are right above him! And it is not as though there have been any recent positive signs – he has one extra base hit, a solo HR, over his last 17 games, and outside of that blast only one other rbi.
Longoria is not protected well by a mediocre lineup, but the problem with that conventional thinking is the walk rate – one would expect it to be higher, as pitchers worked around him. It isn’t. The power drainage comes from the nature of his contact to this point. While his line drive rate has been solid, the 44.8 percent ground-balls are a career high (no other season above 39.1), while the 32.1 percent fly-balls are by far a career low, with no other season below 40.5. Those tables bear watching closely – until there is more elevation, those power counts are going to remain low. And the Rays simply can’t afford that these days.
Marlins – Steve Cishek (quietly) rolls on
Even without Jose Fernandez the Marlins have a legitimate chance to hang around in the N.L. East, largely because the Braves lack the punch, and the Nationals the health, to establish any distance in the standings. And with Memorial Day having passed it is time to look at a guy that will make a significant difference in their playoff chase, yet one that remains remarkably under the radar.
Memorial Day was used as the reference point, because it was at that time last season that Cishek settled in to his groove, and what a groove is has been – over a full 162-game cycle he has worked to a 1.41 tune, with 40 saves in 42 chances. If you do that in an individual season you are in the Cy Young race; do it over a different calendar cycle and not many notice.
Cishek’s career allowance is now at 2.41 over 206 appearances, backed up by three prime peripherals – a 9.6 K’s-per-9; 52.8 percent ground ball rate; and only 0.3 HR’s-per-9, at a 4.3 ratio of HR’s per FB. Consider where that puts him - of the pitchers that have worked at least 200 innings since he came up in 2010, how many others have more than 9.0 K’s-per-9 and a GB rate over 50 percent? Only Johnny Venters. Yes, the HR rates might seem to be outliers, but his style could keep it at that level – of 81 batters faced this season there have only been 14 fly ball outs. It is tough to square the ball up against him and get it in the air.
The Marlins are not a deep team, and as such there is not much margin for error – 11 of their wins have come by a single run. But while they can make them appearing unimposing, the ability of Cishek to cement those close wins needs to be factored carefully in your processes.
Royals – The Hitting Coach Carousel
Early in the season there was a take here on the continued lack of development of the Kansas City offense, despite having a cluster of talented young players all come up through the system around the same time (http://www.***********/articles/arti...?theArt=368665). After 52 games of continued misery at the plate it was time for a change on Thursday, with hitting coach Pedro Grifol being “reassigned”, and Dale Sveum promoted to the role. That continued a bizarre shuffle that makes Sveum the sixth to take on that role since the end of the end of the 2012 season, when Kevin Seitzer was fired. And it almost assuredly has played a part in the lack of development of those young hitters.
First note that the firing of Seitzer not only started the chain reaction, but may have been the worst move of all. His current job? Hitting coach in Toronto, where the Blue Jays are bashing the ball better than anyone else in the Majors. There was some concern when the OPS fell off from .744 (#7) to #.716 (#15) from 2011 to 2012, which led to his dismissal, but since then it has been a free fall – the Royals only managed a .694 LY, rating #21, and so far this season they are tied for #29 at .659, with a .352 SLG that is dead last.
Kansas City is not just last in HR’s with 22, but last by a wide margin. Salvador Perez leads the team with five; 93 other players have that many. And Sveum understands where the problem is, as he told the Kansas City Star – “Elevation. We’ve swung at pitches down in the zone way too much. And from thigh high to the top of the strike zone, we’re not doing enough damage.” The numbers back that up – while they do have the best strikeout rate in the Majors (only 15.3 percent), it has come from putting too many ground-balls into play, a 49.6 rate (only Pittsburgh has done it at a higher clip).
How much difference can Sveum make? Having been a manager he is aware of how massaging egos is a big part of the process. But with so many different hitting coaches over such a short cycle, it is going to take a lot of skill to sort through what has been baseball chaos. Perhaps some of these players are not as bad as they have shown, but the team simply has not created the atmosphere for development. This will be a good place to focus your handicapping microscopic as the season progresses.
Saturday, May 31
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Midweek Series – Five Key Takeaways
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is time to once again round the bases of the MLB Weekday Series from Point Blank range, isolating key edges that can put you far ahead of the game in the days ahead.
Dodgers – Josh Beckett, and what’s next
While Beckett’s no-hitter at Philadelphia on Sunday certainly came as a surprise, he has been around long enough that not many will be in a hurry to adjust their power ratings. He is not going to be considered a “find”. If anything, there are some metrics that will lead some in the marketplace to want to play against him, with a .211 BABIP and 85.4 percent LOB rate that are extreme baseball fortune through his nine starts, and especially on Friday, off of those 128 no-no pitches. But there is genuinely something good going on here that shows evidence of being sustainable, which will matter over the course of the season.
Beckett was on a Hall of Fame arc until 2010, when injuries began to take a toll. Injuries can wreck the career of a pitcher in The Show, and after he underwent surgery last July for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (a rib was removed that had been pressuring a nerve), the Dodgers were not entirely optimistic (hence, Dan Haren and Paul Maholm). But Beckett worked hard to rehab, and his velocity counts show him to be at full health – his last pitch that struck out Chase Utley on Sunday was clocked at 94 mph. Not bad, as the 128th offering.
Here is the key – because of a couple of trips to the DL, Beckett only worked 534 1/3 innings from 2010-2013. In that same span, there were 21 starters that worked over 800, and Beckett’s count checks in at #85. Could that lighter workload have actually enhanced his ability to pitch longer into his career, instead of the injuries short-circuiting it? It is an intriguing notion. And from a statistical standpoint it might be savvy to hit “delete” for 2013, with his last five starts tangling up data-bases with an 0-3/6.75 when he was clearly damaged goods (as a rule of thumb, bad outings by a pitcher before he goes on the DL need to be discounted in your data-bases).
Beckett has a lot of savvy on the mound, including the pressure of 13 post-season starts at 7-3/3.07. That understanding has him using his curveball more, and his sinker less, at this stage, and while the draining pitch count at Philadelphia could be a short-term issue, the confidence gained from that outing could be a major plus over time. Yes, the ensuing BABIBP and LOB rates will not allow his ERA to stay where it is. But there is another statistical takeaway that adds legitimacy to what he has accomplished so far – of the 108 pitchers that have worked 50 IP or more, his difficulty of batters faced (“DBF”) is #3. He has faced a collective OPS of .744, with only six teams posting a mark above that.
Red Sox – John Lackey, and another tale of Beckett
No, this is not going to be a tale of the Red Sox right-hander in a “Waiting for Godot” scenario, but instead a comparison with Josh Beckett, because there is much in common, and each could bring some value over the course of the summer. Both are veteran right-handers with a lot of savvy through their experience (Lackey has 104 innings over 19 post-season appearances), but may have had the rare fortune of injuries pro-longing their careers, instead of shortening hem. And again there is a case of discarding some counter-productive statistics from a time in which someone was pitching hurt, in order to have a better database.
Lackey’s career could have been over after 2011, a 12-12/6.41 campaign for the Red Sox that should have ended much earlier than it did – an elbow that was going to need Tommy John surgery had nothing left down the stretch, with an 0-3/8.22 over his last six starts that was keyed by 43 hits vs. only 17 K’s. Highlight those games in your data-base, then hit delete, because they do not measure his ability in any meaningful way.
Going through rehab at the age of 33 is not easy. But Lackey did that in 2012, and for as arduous as those processes are, at the same time it was saving his arm from a year of MLB innings. He was slow out of the gate in his 2013 return, opening 1-4/4.05, but then regained the form of his best years, and it was capped by a 2.77 over 25 post-season frames. Counting that October run he is at 3.39 over 286 IP since his return, with 249 K’s vs. only 60 walks. Only once in his 10 pre-surgery seasons did he sport a lower ERA.
The key is that there is evidence that Lackey may be getting even better. His K’s-per-9 are at 8.5 so far, compared to a career 6.8. His walks-per-9 are 1.8, vs. a 3.0 previously. A .322 BABIP tells us that there has not been any geometry in his allowance, although that does factor this misfortunate of pitching in front of a Boston defense that is dead last at .318 in the category. And he has been doing this against a high level of competition – of the 50 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 IP, his DBF is #18. The latter lends added weight to a current xFIP of 3.13 that is a career best, yet something the markets are not appreciating.
Rays – Evan Longoria’s power decline
The Rays have made this column several times already, all for the wrong reasons, and it has added up to a 23-31 mark through the first third of the season. Much of that has been about the injuries that hampered the starting rotation in the early going, which was forcing Joe Madden to deftly juggle his bullpen, and also to occasionally have to use David Price too long in games (his follow-ups from high pitch counts remain problematical). The last thing they needed were problems at the plate, and while the good news is that Ben Zobrist returns this weekend, the bad is that Longoria’s power has been missing.
Longoria was sensational in 2013, a .269/.343/.498, with 32 home runs, plus superb defense. It was a Top 10 campaign among position players through just about any of the advanced WAR-type metrics. At only 28 entering this season, one could make a case that his best was still ahead. But at the one-third mark of the 2014 schedule here are the numbers - .264/.325/.377, with only five HR’s. The .264 would be his career low, despite being amped a bit by a .319 BABIP. The on-base is far below his career .355, with a 7.7 percent walk rate drastically off of the 10.7 precedent.
But the real issue is the power. Longoria’s career SLG’s have been .531, .526, .507, .495, .527 and .498. That is a model of consistently, so the current .377 is a cause for alarm this deep into a season – slap hitters like Brett Gardner (.384) and Dee Gordon (.378 to Thursday) are right above him! And it is not as though there have been any recent positive signs – he has one extra base hit, a solo HR, over his last 17 games, and outside of that blast only one other rbi.
Longoria is not protected well by a mediocre lineup, but the problem with that conventional thinking is the walk rate – one would expect it to be higher, as pitchers worked around him. It isn’t. The power drainage comes from the nature of his contact to this point. While his line drive rate has been solid, the 44.8 percent ground-balls are a career high (no other season above 39.1), while the 32.1 percent fly-balls are by far a career low, with no other season below 40.5. Those tables bear watching closely – until there is more elevation, those power counts are going to remain low. And the Rays simply can’t afford that these days.
Marlins – Steve Cishek (quietly) rolls on
Even without Jose Fernandez the Marlins have a legitimate chance to hang around in the N.L. East, largely because the Braves lack the punch, and the Nationals the health, to establish any distance in the standings. And with Memorial Day having passed it is time to look at a guy that will make a significant difference in their playoff chase, yet one that remains remarkably under the radar.
Memorial Day was used as the reference point, because it was at that time last season that Cishek settled in to his groove, and what a groove is has been – over a full 162-game cycle he has worked to a 1.41 tune, with 40 saves in 42 chances. If you do that in an individual season you are in the Cy Young race; do it over a different calendar cycle and not many notice.
Cishek’s career allowance is now at 2.41 over 206 appearances, backed up by three prime peripherals – a 9.6 K’s-per-9; 52.8 percent ground ball rate; and only 0.3 HR’s-per-9, at a 4.3 ratio of HR’s per FB. Consider where that puts him - of the pitchers that have worked at least 200 innings since he came up in 2010, how many others have more than 9.0 K’s-per-9 and a GB rate over 50 percent? Only Johnny Venters. Yes, the HR rates might seem to be outliers, but his style could keep it at that level – of 81 batters faced this season there have only been 14 fly ball outs. It is tough to square the ball up against him and get it in the air.
The Marlins are not a deep team, and as such there is not much margin for error – 11 of their wins have come by a single run. But while they can make them appearing unimposing, the ability of Cishek to cement those close wins needs to be factored carefully in your processes.
Royals – The Hitting Coach Carousel
Early in the season there was a take here on the continued lack of development of the Kansas City offense, despite having a cluster of talented young players all come up through the system around the same time (http://www.***********/articles/arti...?theArt=368665). After 52 games of continued misery at the plate it was time for a change on Thursday, with hitting coach Pedro Grifol being “reassigned”, and Dale Sveum promoted to the role. That continued a bizarre shuffle that makes Sveum the sixth to take on that role since the end of the end of the 2012 season, when Kevin Seitzer was fired. And it almost assuredly has played a part in the lack of development of those young hitters.
First note that the firing of Seitzer not only started the chain reaction, but may have been the worst move of all. His current job? Hitting coach in Toronto, where the Blue Jays are bashing the ball better than anyone else in the Majors. There was some concern when the OPS fell off from .744 (#7) to #.716 (#15) from 2011 to 2012, which led to his dismissal, but since then it has been a free fall – the Royals only managed a .694 LY, rating #21, and so far this season they are tied for #29 at .659, with a .352 SLG that is dead last.
Kansas City is not just last in HR’s with 22, but last by a wide margin. Salvador Perez leads the team with five; 93 other players have that many. And Sveum understands where the problem is, as he told the Kansas City Star – “Elevation. We’ve swung at pitches down in the zone way too much. And from thigh high to the top of the strike zone, we’re not doing enough damage.” The numbers back that up – while they do have the best strikeout rate in the Majors (only 15.3 percent), it has come from putting too many ground-balls into play, a 49.6 rate (only Pittsburgh has done it at a higher clip).
How much difference can Sveum make? Having been a manager he is aware of how massaging egos is a big part of the process. But with so many different hitting coaches over such a short cycle, it is going to take a lot of skill to sort through what has been baseball chaos. Perhaps some of these players are not as bad as they have shown, but the team simply has not created the atmosphere for development. This will be a good place to focus your handicapping microscopic as the season progresses.
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