The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Picking the Winner

March 18, 2014


Defense wins championships. According to recent history, this is true.

The last 11 champions have all ranked in the top 21 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating. But having an elite defense isn’t enough. Those 11 champions have also finished in the top 18 in offensive efficiency.

Past Champions (2003-2013)
Year Champion Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
2013 Louisville 4 3
2012 Kentucky 2 8
2011 Connecticut 18 13
2010 Duke 1 8
2009 North Carolina 1 21
2008 Kansas 2 1
2007 Florida 1 17
2006 Florida 3 6
2005 North Carolina 2 12
2004 Connecticut 9 5
2003 Syracuse 14 13


With two weeks remaining before the 2014 tournament starts, these are this year’s candidates to continue that trend:

2014 Schools
Champion Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Louisville 13 7
Wichita State 15 10
Florida 11 8
Villanova 9 20
*Kansas 6 26
*Arizona 29 1
*Virginia 31 3


Lousiville, Wichita State, Florida, and Villanova are the only teams that currently rank in the top 21 in defensive rating and top 18 in offensive rating. We included Kansas, Arizona, and Virginia as each are just outside of the desired rating as of March 6th.

KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings are great ways of determining the potential candidates to advance to the final four. These aren’t completely fool-proof as there have been a few occasions where teams outside of either of the desired ratings advance to the Final Four (see list of Final Four participants to the right).

However when choosing the one team to dominate your bracket, it’s wise to stick with one of the candidates listed in the table above.

2003 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Syracuse 14 13
Kansas 15 4
Texas 1 80
Marquette 2 119
2004 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Connecticut 9 5
Georgia Tech 26 6
Duke 3 4
Oklahoma State 6 12
2005 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
North Carolina 2 12
Illinois 3 4
Louisville 7 37
Michigan State 6 32
2006 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Florida 3 6
UCLA 38 4
LSU 65 2
George Mason 58 13
2007 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Florida 1 17
Ohio State 3 11
UCLA 29 3
Georgetown 2 24
2008 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Kansas 2 1
Memphis 6 2
UCLA 8 5
North Carolina 1 19
2009 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
North Carolina 1 21
Michigan State 22 8
Connecticut 18 3
Villanova 25 13
2010 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Duke 1 8
Butler 57 2
Michigan State 36 27
West Virginia 11 23
2011 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Connecticut 18 13
Butler 48 44
Kentucky 10 15
VCU 25 84
2012 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Kentucky 2 8
Kansas 28 3
Ohio State 5 7
Louisville 116 1
2013 Final Four
Team Offensive Rank Defensive Rank
Louisville 4 3
Michigan 1 48
Syracuse 29 8
Wichita State 30 25


Final Four Trends based on KenPom’s Ratings

- 22 of 44 (50%) Final Four participants have finished in both the Top 18 in Offensive Rating and Top 21 in Defensive Rating

- 29 of 44 (66%) Final Four participants have been in the Top 18 Offensive Rating

- 33 of 44 (75%) Final Four participants have been in the Top 21 Defensive Rating

- Only 4 of 44 Final Four participants have finished outside of BOTH categories. (9th seeded Wichita State in 2013, 11th seeded VCU in 2011, 8th seeded Butler in 2011, 5th seeded Michigan State in 2010).

- Only 7 of 44 Final Four participants ranked below 30th in offensive efficiency rating.

Notable teams with that distinction this season:

Ohio State (117)
Cincinnati (131)
VCU (104)
San Diego State (96)
UConn (79)
Saint Louis (159)

- Only 5 of 44 Final Four participants ranked below 37th in defensive efficiency rating.

Notable teams with that distinction this season:

Duke (55)
Creighton (102)
Iowa (78)
Michigan (71)

[StarDust Bum]

NIT Adjusted Ratings

March 18, 2014


NCAA Tournament Power Ratings

No question the NIT gets less attention – rightfully so – however, for bettors it offers equal opportunity to earn profits if you follow a few guidelines. With that in mind let’s examine the NIT Field below.

Slightly different from the NCAA version this time we sorted by ADJUSTED RATINGS RANK, which is where each team ranked in the entire country based on their statistical performance to date:

SportsBoss Power Index - NIT Tournament
Team Seed Conference Adjusted Ratings Rank
Utah 5 Pac-12 28
Illinois 2 Big 10 41
West Virginia 5 Big 12 44
Saint Mary's 4 WCC 48
Minnesota 1 Big 10 49
St. John's 1 Big East 50
Arkansas 3 SEC 52
Georgetown 4 Big East 60
Clemson 3 ACC 61
San Francisco 4 WCC 66
Louisiana Tech 3 CUSA 67
Florida State 1 ACC 69
California 2 Pac-12 72
Green Bay 4 Horizon 73
Southern Methodist 1 AAC 78
LSU 5 SEC 82
Missouri 2 SEC 91
Southern Mississippi 3 CUSA 92
Georgia 2 SEC 94
Indiana State 6 MVC 105
Toledo 6 MAC 114
Iona 6 MAAC 133
Vermont 7 AM East 148
Boston University 7 Patriot 154
UC Irvine 8 Big West 162
Georgia State 6 Sun Belt 168
Davidson 7 SOCON 171
Belmont 5 OVC 188
Robert Morris 8 NEC 206
Utah Valley 7 WAC 218
Florida Gulf Coast 8 Atlantic Sun 288
High Point 8 Big South 291


One CRITICAL aspect of wagering on the NIT is judging emotional levels of teams involved. Teams that had NCAA Tournament hopes before the season, or just as the season winded down may not be as motivated especially compared to mid-major type schools that feel like this is their chance to make a name for their program. Another interesting aspect of the NIT is the seeding, where more well-known teams seem to get the benefit of the doubt as a higher seed despite performing worse in the SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index).

Remember, it’s OK to PASS on a given game, or even a night. Forcing selections because you are an action junkie will NOT help your account, and will put you behind the 8 ball in profiting. I typically prefer to pass on the opening round of NIT action for the most part – watching the teams’ play, understanding who is committed to earning a trip to MSG in early April versus forcing early plays when motivation between two schools may not be equal.

Also, take into account home court advantage – at some schools it will NOT be the same as we see during the regular season (Illinois for example), while others may have a greater impact such as San Francisco hosting LSU in its opening matchup.

My recommendation is unless you can isolate situations where you not only have the statistical edge but also the definite emotional edge passing on the early round of all tournaments outside the NCAA.

[StarDust Bum]

Early Round Betting Trends

March 19, 2014


The 2014 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it a final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season.

To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a look at some of the more relevant and most recent trend results that have occurred in Round One games.

Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

BILLION DOLLAR BRACKET BUSTING

If your dream of designs is completing the perfect bracket (read: picking every winner in every game and cashing in on a one billion prize), enjoy the dream.

You have a better chance of winning 50 Powerball lotteries in your lifetime!

Since expanding to 64 teams in 1985, the odds of randomly picking a perfect bracket sheet are one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 – or better than one in nine quintillion.

Hint: you can reduce the odds to one in 13.5 billion simply by picking the No. 1 seeds over the No. 16 seeds and going from there. Now how’s that for putting you in the game.

Now that you’re feeling better about your chances, concentrate, instead on picking the Final Four teams. That’s 16 to the fourth power, or one in 65,536.

Incidentally, there have been only eight teams seeded lower than No. 6 to reach the Final Four since 1985: 1985 Evansville (8), 1986 LSU (11), 2000 North Carolina (8), 2000 Wisconsin (8), 2006 George Mason (11), 2011 Butler (8), 2011 VCU (11) and 2013 Wichita State (9).

For what it’s worth, Sheldon Jacobson, a computer science professor at the University of Illinois, informs us the most likely Final Four seed combination is 1, 1, 2, 3. The odds against this occurring are about 16 to 1. It has happened three times in the past 28 years. Chalk artists beware: the odds of all four No.1 seeds reaching the Final Four: 47.5 to 1.

And long shot lovers note: the odds of a No. 16 seed reaching the Final Four: 828 to 1. The odds of all four No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four: about one trillion to 1.

PLANTING THE SEED

No. 1 seeds are 92-0 SU and 51-40-1 ATS vs. No. 16 seeds, including 8-1 ATS if favored by less than 20 points.

No. 2 seeds are 85-7 SU and 39-49-4 ATS vs. No. 15 seeds, including 13-26-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.

No. 3 seeds are 81-11 SU and 49-41-2 ATS vs. No. 14 seeds, including 36-1 SU & 27-9-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.

No. 4 seeds are 72-20 SU and 52-29-1 ATS vs. No. 13 seeds, including 35-17 ATS as favorites of less than 10 points.

No. 5 seeds are 58-34 SU and 44-48 ATS vs. No. 12 seeds, including 10-9 SU and 9-12 ATS the last five years. In addition, No. 12 seeds that participated in last year’s event are 21-16 SU against No. 5’s dating back to 1985. Those No. 12 seeds who did not play in this tournament the previous season are 20-59 SU in this round. FYI: a No. 12 seed has failed to beat a No. 5 seed only twice since 1988.

No. 6 seeds are 63-29 SU and 50-40-2 ATS vs. No. 11 seeds, including 10-8 SU and 5-12-1 ATS vs. an opponent off an ATS win of more than 7 points.

No. 7 seeds are 52-40 SU and 49-42-1 ATS vs. No. 10 seeds, including 2-7 SU and ATS 1-7 ATS when the No. 10 seed is off back-to-back SU losses.

No. 8 seeds are 45-47 SU and 44-46-2 ATS vs. No. 9 seeds, including 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS as favorites of 3 or more points.

FIRST ROUND NOTES

Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round (numbers all ATS)

ACC: 4-1-1, Atlantic 10: 3-0, Big Ten: 3-0, Big 12: 0-4, Big East: 6-0, Big West: 1-7, Colonial: 8-4, C-USA: 2-5, Horizon: 4-2, MAC: 3-1, Missouri Valley: 3-1, Mountain West: 4-2-1, Pac-12: 51, Sun Belt: 4-1, SEC: 3-1, WAC: 2-6, West Coast: 1-3.

Best team records (SU) in this round:

N Carolina: 11-0, Kansas: 7-0, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Tulsa: 5-0; Arizona State, Ohio State: 4-0, Kentucky 18-1.

Worst team records (SU) in this round:

Nebraska: 0-5.

Best team ATS records in this round:

VCU: 6-0, Iowa State, Saint Louis, Xavier: 6-1, Florida: 5-1, Kansas State, Michigan, NC State: 4-1.

Worst team ATS records in this round:

Nebraska: 0-5, Massachusetts, Texas, Villanova: 0-3, Oregon: 1-7, Creighton: 1-4.

Best conference ATS records in this round:

Colonial: 5-1, Big Ten: 14-3, MAC dogs: 9-2, PAC 12 dogs: 7-2.

Worst conference ATS records in this round:

Big West: 1-6, Big East dogs: 1-4, Ivy: 3-12, Big 12: 4-11.

MOST RECENT ‘ANY ROUND’ TRENDS

Favorites of more than 7 points who are 3-0 SUATS last three games are 19-36 vs. opponent off a SU win… and 16-5 ATS vs. opponent off a SU loss.

Favorites of 20 or more points are 1-7-1 vs. an opponent off a DD SU win.

Favorites of more than 7 points who scored 100 points or more in their last tourney game are 12-2.

Underdogs of 4 or more points playing off a SU tourney win as a dog of 6 or more points are 10-30-1 ATS the last fifteen years.

Dogs of 18 or more points off a DD ATS win are 7-1.

If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then it’s time to visit a cardiologist.

I’ll return next week with a look at Sweet 16 and Elite Eight round action.

[StarDust Bum]

Play-In Tip Sheet

March 19, 2014


**Cal Poly Slo vs. Texas Southern**

-- As of early this morning, most books had Cal Poly Slo (13-19 straight up, 11-19 against the spread) listed as a four-point favorite. The Tigers were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155), while the total for 'over/under' wagers was 129.5 or 130.

-- Texas Southern (19-14 SU, 2-4 ATS) was sent to the First Four in Dayton after winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference's automatic berth. The Tigers beat Prairie View A&M in the league's tournament championship game in Houston, capturing a 78-73 triumph despite trailing by seven at halftime. They failed to cover the number as 11-point favorites even though Aaric Murray produced 27 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots.

-- Texas Southern has won nine straight games. The Tigers are led by Murray, a transfer from West Va. who averaged 8.8 points per game for the Mountaineers last season. Murray averages 21.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.6 blocked shots per contest.

-- Cal Poly Slo lost three in a row and five of its last six to close the regular season. Nevertheless, the Mustangs caught fire at the Big West Tournament in Anaheim. Ridge Shipley buried a go-ahead 3-pointer with 13.7 seconds left to lift his team to a 61-59 win over CSU Northridge in the finals. Shipley scored 14 points off the bench and made 3-of-5 from deep to propel Cal Poly Slo to its first NCAA bid in school history. Chris Eversley finished with a team-best 18 points.

-- CPS played five road games against teams in the NCAA Tournament field. The Mustangs lost 73-62 at Arizona, 82-61 at Oregon, 73-56 at Pittsburgh, 79-62 at Stanford and 82-72 at Delaware.

-- Texas Southern also faced Stanford in Palo Alto, losing by a 97-71 score. The Mustangs lost 98-71 at Tulsa. They also lost by at nine at Texas Tech, by 15 at Miami and by 13 at TCU.

-- The 'over' is on a 6-3 run for the Mustangs, who have seen it go 14-14-1 overall.

-- The 'under' is 4-2 overall for Texas Southern.

-- TruTV will have television coverage tonight at 6:40 p.m. Eastern. The winner gets Wichita St. on Friday in St. Louis.

**Tennessee vs. Iowa**

-- As of early this morning, most books had Iowa (20-12 SU, 15-15 ATS) installed as a 2.5-point favorite. The total was 144 and the Volunteers were +125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).

-- Iowa head coach Fran McCaffrey arrived in Dayton with his team on Monday. He left the team at 8:30 p.m. Central on Tuesday to rejoin his family in Iowa City. McCaffrey's son Patrick will have surgery Wednesday morning to remove a mass from his thyroid. "Assuming all goes well, I'll be back for our meeting after the pre-game meal," McCaffrey told the assembled media on Tuesday.

-- Iowa limped down the stretch and nearly missed out on its first NCAA bid since 2006. The Hawkeyes have lost six of their last seven games and are in the midst of a 0-7 ATS slide. Their only win during this span was an 83-76 decision over Purdue at home.

-- Roy-Devyn Marble, the son of Hawk legend Roy Marble, is the leader of this team. Marble averages a team-best 17.3 points per game. He has 59 steals and a solid 113/57 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Aaron White is the team's second-leading scorer, averaging 13.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game.

-- Tennessee (21-12 SU, 18-13 ATS) finished the season in impressive fashion, winning six of its last eight games to garner its first NCAA bid during Cuonzo Martin's three-year tenure. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and the only non-cover was a brutal beat for gamblers on UT in a 56-49 loss to Florida at the SEC Tournament semifinals. UT led UF by double digits in the first half and by seven at intermission. The Gators didn't get ahead of the number until Patric Young knocked down a pair of free throws with 2.5 seconds remaining.

-- Tennessee brought more energy and intensity to the Florida game than I've seen from this squad all year long. That's a credit to Martin, who has been forced to endure a fan base that has been pining for the return of Bruce Pearl. If not for a shaky call that went against Jeronne Maymon, who subsequently was issued a technical foul that resulted in the end of his day (the tech was his fifth foul), UT may have ended the Gators' winning streak that dates back to Dec. 2.

-- UT senior slasher Jordan McRae is the catalyst for the Vols, averaging a team-high 18.6 PPG. Junior power forward Jarnell Stokes is a beast in the lane, averaging a double-double (14.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG). --While UT prepared for its First Four showdown with Iowa, its former coach Bruce Pearl was in the news after his hiring by Auburn was announced Tuesday morning. Two UT players, Maymon and McRae, were recruited by Pearl and played one season for him. "We ain't got no comments on the Auburn situation," Maymon told the assembled media Tuesday in Dayton. "We're here to talk about Tennessee." McRae added, "What Jeronne said." --Iowa saw the 'over' hit in nine consecutive games, but it has seen the 'under' cash in back-to-back contests. The 'over' is 20-9 overall for the Hawkeyes.

-- The 'under' has cashed in five consecutive Tennessee games to improve to 18-12-1 overall.

-- This game will tip in Dayton 30 minutes after the conclusion of Texas Southern-Cal Poly at around 9:10 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

1st Set of Games:

Wednesday, March 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas Southern - 6:40 PM ET Texas Southern +3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Cal Poly SLO - Over 128.5 500

Illinois - 7:00 PM ET Illinois -2.5 500 *****
Boston U - Over 132 500

Quinnipiac - 7:00 PM ET Yale -4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Yale -

Towson - 7:00 PM ET Towson +3.5 500 *****
South Carolina Upstate -

Cleveland St. - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland St. +1 500 *****
Ohio -

Akron - 7:00 PM ET IUPU - Ft. Wayne -2.5 500 *****
IUPU - Ft. Wayne -

South Dakota State - 7:00 PM ET South Dakota State +1 500 *****
Old Dominion -

Hampton - 7:00 PM ET Hampton +11 500
Penn St. -

Iona - 7:30 PM ET Iona +9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Louisiana Tech -

[StarDust Bum]

March Madness Record:

1 - 5.....................*****

2 - 3.....................DOUBLE PLAY

0 - 1 ....................TRIPLE PLAY



Vermont - 8:00 PM ET Georgia -4.5 500 *****
Georgia - Under 135.5 500

Wyoming - 8:00 PM ET Wyoming +5.5 500
Texas A&M -

Princeton - 8:00 PM ET Princeton -9 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Tulane -

Murray St. - 8:05 PM ET Murray St. +5 500
Missouri St. -

Morehead St. - 8:05 PM ET Morehead St. +6.5 500 *****
Illinois St. -

North Dakota - 8:07 PM ET Nebraska Omaha -6.5 500
Nebraska Omaha -

Toledo - 8:30 PM ET Toledo +7 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Southern Miss -

UC Irvine - 9:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -9.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Southern Methodist - Over 131.5 500

Texas A&M CC - 9:00 PM ET Texas A&M CC +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Northern Colorado -

Fresno St. - 9:00 PM ET Texas-El Paso -5.5 500 *****
Texas-El Paso -

Tennessee - 9:10 PM ET Tennessee +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Iowa -

Louisiana State - 10:00 PM ET San Francisco +0 500 *****
San Francisco -

Pacific - 10:00 PM ET Pacific -3.5 500
Grand Canyon -

Radford - 10:00 PM ET Oregon St. -14 500
Oregon St. -

Utah Valley - 10:30 PM ET Utah Valley +12.5 500
California -

[StarDust Bum]

"Off the Board" Schools

March 19, 2014


Following are straight-up and point-spread results for all of the "Off" conferences in NCAA Tournament play since 1994. While straight-up wins are certainly not common for these lower-echelon conference reps in NCAA action, they are not unheard of, either, as the best of this lot has been able to cause real damage in recent years.

Some of those who have famously succeeded in sub-regionals over the past decade include last year's darling, Florida Gulf Coast, plus others from recent years such as Morehead State, Siena, Winthrop, Bucknell, Vermont, Northwestern State, Montana, Lehigh, and Norfolk State.

Some of these lower-rung leagues have definitely done better than others vs. the point-spread in NCAA play. Such as Southern Conference teams, now 17-7-1 vs. the line in NCAA play since '94 (Davidson covering last year vs. Marquette).

Meanwhile, America East reps have been steady spread losers (8-16) in the Dance since '94, though Albany covered a big price last year vs. Duke.

"Ws" and "Ls" below reflect the point-spread result for the "off" team in the matchup:

AMERICA EAST
(Straight-up record 3-21 since 1994, Against the Spread record 8-16 since '94)

1994-Drexel (+9½) 39-61 L vs. Temple 39-61
1995-Drexel (+16) 49-73 L vs. Ok. State
1996-Drexel (+6) 75-63 W vs. Memphis
Drexel (+6) 58-69 L vs. Syracuse
1997-Bucknell (+7½) 52-81 L vs. Tulsa
1998-Delaware (+16) 56-95 L vs. Purdue
1999-Delaware (+10½) 52-62 W vs. Tennessee
2000-Hofstra (+12½) 66-86 L vs. Ok. State
2001-Hofstra (+7) 48-61 L vs. UCLA
2002-Boston U. (+24) 52-90 L vs. Cincinnati
2003-Vermont (+25½) 51-80 L vs. Arizona
2004-Vermont (+20) 53-70 W vs. UConn
2005-Vermont (+20) 60-57 (OT) W vs. Syracuse; Vermont (+8½) 61-72 L vs. Michigan State
2006-Albany (+21½) 59-72 W vs. UConn
2007-Albany (+8½) 57-84 L vs. Virginia
2008-UM-Baltimore County (+16½) 47-66 L vs. Georgetown
2009-Binghamton (+22) 62-86 L vs. Duke
2010-Vermont (+16) 56-79 L vs. Syracuse
2011-Boston U (+22½) 53-72 W vs. Kansas
2012-Vermont (-4) 71-59 W play-in vs. Lamar; Vermont (+16) 58-77 L vs. North Carolina
2013-Albany (+19) 61-73 W vs. Duke
2014-Albany

ATLANTIC SUN
(SU 4-21, ATS 13-11-1)

1994-Charleston (+9) 58-68 L vs. Wake Forest; Central Florida (+23½) 67-98 L vs. Purdue 67-98
1995-Florida International (+31) 56-92 L vs. UCLA
1996-Central Florida (+30) 70-92 W vs. UMass
1997-Charleston (+6½) 75-66 W vs. Maryland, Charleston (+5½) 69-73 W vs. Arizona
1998-Charleston (+14) 57-67 W vs. Stanford
1999 Samford (+15½) 43-69 L vs. St. John's
2000-Samford (+13½) 65-79 L vs. Syracuse
2001-Georgia State (+7½) 50-49 W vs. Wisconsin, Georgia State (+14) 60-79 L vs. Maryland
2002-Florida Atlantic (+18) 78-86 W vs. Alabama
2003-Troy State (+12) 59-71 N vs. Xavier
2004-Central Florida (+14) 44-53 W Pittsburgh
2005-Central Florida (+18) 71-77 W vs. UConn
2006-Belmont (+24) 44-78 L vs. UCLA
2007-Belmont (+16½) 55-80 L vs. Georgetown
2008-Belmont (+20) W 70-71 W vs. Duke
2009-East Tennessee State (+20) 62-72 W vs. Pitt
2010-East Tennessee State (+19) 71-100 L vs. Kentucky
2011-Belmont (+4) 58-72 L vs. Wisconsin
2012-Belmont (+3½) 59-74 L vs. Georgetown
2013-Florida Gulf Coast (+13½) 78-68 W vs. Georgetown, Florida Gulf Coast (+7) 81-71 W vs. San Diego State, Florida Gulf Coast (+13) 50-62 W vs. Florida. Note: known as Trans-America Conference until 2001.
2014-Mercer

BIG SKY
(SU 3-20, ATS 10-12-1)

1994-Boise State (+18) 58-67 W vs. Louisville
1995-Weber State (+15) 79-72 W vs. Michigan State, Weber State (+7½) 51-53 W vs. Georgetown
1996-Montana St. (+9) 55-88 L vs. Syracuse
1997 Montana (+20½) 54-92 L vs. Kentucky
1998-Northern Arizona (+14½) 62-65 W vs. Cincinnati
1999-Weber State (+13) 76-74 W vs. North Carolina, Weber State (+8) 72-80 OT N vs. Florida
2000-Northern Arizona (+14) 56-61 W vs. St. John's
2001-CS Northridge 75-99 L (+12½) vs. Kansas
2002-Montana (+20½) 62-81 W vs. Oregon
2003-Weber State (+6½) 74-81 L vs. Wisconsin
2004-Eastern Washington (+16½) 56-75 L vs. Oklahoma
2005-Montana (+20½) 77-88 W vs. Washington
2006-Montana +7) 87-79 W vs. Nevada, Montana (+10½) 56-69 L vs. Boston College
2007-Weber State (+20) 42-70 L vs. UCLA
2008-Portland State (+22) 61-85 L vs. Kansas
2009-Portland State (+10½) 59-77 L vs. Xavier
2010-Montana (+9) 57-62 W vs. New Mexico
2011-Northern Colorado (+14½) 50-68 L vs. San Diego State
2012-Montana (+9) 49-73 L vs. Wisconsin
2013- Montana (+12 ½) 34-81 (L) vs. Syracuse
2014-North Daktoa State

BIG SOUTH
(SU 3-18, ATS 8-13)

1996-UNC Greensboro (+18) 61-66 W vs. Cincinnati
1997-Charleston Southern (+18) 75-109 L vs. UCLA
1998-Radford (+31) 63-99 L vs. Duke 63-99
1999-Winthrop (+28) 41-80 L vs. Auburn
2000-Winthrop (+16½) 50-74 L vs. Oklahoma
2001-Winthrop (-2½) 67-71 L play-in vs. Northwestern State
2002-Winthrop (+33½) 37-84 L vs. Duke
2003-UNC Asheville (+1) 82-74 W play-in vs. Texas Southern, UNC Asheville (+27½) 61-82 W vs. Texas
2004-Liberty (+24) 63-82 W vs. Saint Joseph's
2005-Winthrop (+13½) 64-74 W vs. Gonzaga
2006-Winthrop (+7) 61-63 W vs. Tennessee
2007-Winthrop (-3½) 74-64 W vs. Notre Dame, Winthrop (+3) 61-75 L vs. Oregon;
2008-Winthrop (+9½) 40-71 L vs. Washington State
2009-Radford (+25½) 58-101 L North Carolina
2010-Winthrop (-3) 44-61 L play-in vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
2011-UNC Asheville (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. UA-Little Rock, UNC Asheville (+18) 51-74 L vs. Pittsburgh
2012-UNC Asheville (15½) W 65-72 vs. Syracuse
2013-Liberty (+2½) 72-73 W play-in vs. North Carolina A&T. No reps '94-95
2014-Coastal Carolina

METRO-ATLANTIC
(SU 6-21, ATS 12-15)

1994-Loyola Md. (+24½) 55-81 L vs. Arizona
1995-St. Peter's (+22) 51-68 W vs. UMass, Manhattan (+7½) 77-67 W vs. Oklahoma, Manhattan (+6½) 54-64 L vs. Arizona
1996-Canisius (+13) 43-72 L vs. Utah
1997-Fairfield (+27) 74-82 W vs. North Carolina
1998-Iona (+5½) 61-63 W vs. Syracuse 61-63 ;
1999-Siena (+7) 80-94 L Arkansas
2001-Iona (+14½) 59-74 L vs. Maryland
2001-Iona (+10½) 70-72 W vs. Ole Miss
2002-Siena (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. Alcorn State; Siena (+28½) 70-85 W vs. Maryland
2003-Manhattan (+7½) 65-76 L vs. Syracuse
2004-Manhattan (+5) 75-60 W vs. Florida, Manhattan (+7) 80-84 W vs. Wake Forest
2005-Niagara (+12) L 67-84 vs. Oklahoma
2006-Iona (+7½) 64-80 L vs. LSU
2007-Niagara (-2½) 77-69 W play-in vs. Florida A&M, Niagara (+19) 67-107 L vs. Kansas
2008-Siena (+6½) 83-62 W vs. Vanderbilt, Siena (+5½) 72-84 L vs. Villanova
2009-Siena (+) 74-72 W 2-OT vs. Ohio State, Siena (+12) 72-79 W vs. Louisville
2010-Siena (+4½) 64-72 L vs. Purdue
2011-St. Peter's (+14½) 43-65 L vs. Purdue
2012-Loyola Md. (+17½) 59-78 L vs. Ohio State
2013-Iona (+14½) 70-95 L vs. Syracuse
2014-Manhattan

MEAC
(SU 5-19, ATS 13-11)

1994-NC A&T (+29) 79-94 W vs. Arkansas
1995-NC A&T (+23) 47-79 L vs. Wake Forest;
1996-S.C. State (+30½) 54-92 L vs. Kansas;
1997-Coppin State (+18½) 78-65 W vs. South Carolina, Coppin State (+11½) 81-82 W vs. Texas;
1998-S.C. State (+26½) 67-82 W vs. Kentucky;
1999-Florida A&M (+46) 58-99 W vs. Duke;
2000-S.C. State (+31½) 65-84 W vs. Stanford;
2001-Hampton (+17½) 58-57 W vs. Iowa State, Hampton (+13) 57-76 L vs. Georgetown;
2002-Hampton (+12½) 67-78 W vs. UConn;
2003-S.C. State (+27) 54-71 W vs. Oklahoma;
2004-Florida A&M (+4) 72-57 W play-in vs. Lehigh, Florida A&M (+28) 76-96 W vs. Kentucky;
2005-Delaware State (+26½) 46-57 W vs. Duke;
2006-Hampton (+3½) 49-71 L play-in game vs. Monmouth;
2007-Florida A&M (+2½) 69-77 L play-in vs. Niagara;
2008-Coppin State (+3) 60-69 L play-in vs. Mount Saint Mary's;
2009-Morgan State (+16) L 54-82 vs. Oklahoma;
2010-Morgan State (+16½) 50-77 L vs. West Virginia;
2011-Hampton (+23) 45-87 W vs. Duke;
2012-Norfolk State (+21½) 86-84 W vs. Missouri; Norfolk State (+14½) 50-84 L vs. Florida;
2013-North Carolina A&T (-2½) 73-72 L play-in vs. Liberty, North Carolina A&T (+26) 48-79 L vs. Louisville
2014-North Carolina Central

NORTHEAST
(SU 2-20, ATS 12-9-1)

1994-Rider (+19) 46-64 W vs. UConn
1995-Mt. St, Mary's (+31) 67-113 L vs. Kentucky
1996-Monmouth (+14) 44-68 L vs. Marquette
1997-Long Island (+13½) 91-101 W vs. Villanova
1998-FDU (+14½) 85-93 W vs. UConn
1999-Mt. St. Mary's (+26) 53-76 W vs. Michigan State
2000-Central Connecticut (+18) 78-88 W vs. Iowa State
2001-Monmouth (+35½) 52-95 L vs. Duke
2002-Central Connecticut (+15) 54-71 L vs. Pittsburgh;
2003-Wagner (+20½) 61-87 L vs. Pittsburgh
2004-Monmouth (+20½) 52-85 L vs. Mississippi State
2005-Fairleigh Dickinson (+26) 55-67 W vs. Illinois
2006-Monmouth (-3½) 71-49 W play-in vs. Hampton, Monmouth (+19½) 45-58 W vs. Villanova
2007-Central Connecticut (+21) 57-78 N vs. Ohio State
2008-Mount Saint Mary's (-3) 69-60 W play-in vs. Coppin State; Mount Saint Mary's (+25) 74-113 L vs. North Carolina
2009-Robert Morris (+17) 62-77 W vs. Michigan State
2010-Robert Morris (+17) 70-73 W (OT) vs. Villanova
2011-Long Island (+18) 87-102 W vs. North Carolina
2012-Long Island (+19) 67-89 L vs. Michigan State
2013-Long Island (+1) L 55-68 play-in vs. James Madison
2014-Mount St. Mary's

OHIO VALLEY
(SU 4-20, ATS 14-10)

1994-Tennessee State (+18½) 70-83 W vs. Kentucky
1995-Murray State (+20) 70-80 W vs. North Carolina
1996-Austin Peay (+15) 79-90 W vs. Georgia Tech
1997-Murray State (+23½) 68-71 W vs. Duke
1998-Murray State (+12½) 74-97 L vs. Rhode Island
1999-Murray State (+8) 58-72 L vs. Ohio State
2000-SE Missouri State (+12½) 61-64 W vs. LSU
2001-Eastern Illinois (+21½) 76-101 L vs. Arizona
2002-Murray State (+9) 68-85 L vs. Georgia
2003-Austin Peay (+16) 64-86 L vs. Louisville
2004-Murray State (+9) 53-72 L vs. Illinois
2005-Eastern Kentucky (+16½) 64-72 W vs. Kentucky
2006-Murray State (+11½) 65-69 W vs. North Carolina
2007-Eastern Kentucky (+27½) 65-86 W vs. North Carolina
2008-Austin Peay (+15½) 54-74 L vs. Texas: 2009-Morehead State (-3) 58-43 W play-in vs. Alabama State, 58-43, Morehead State (+21) W vs. Louisville, 54-74
2010-Murray State (+2½) 66-65 W vs. Vanderbilt, Murray State (+4½) 52-54 W vs. Butler
2011-Morehead State (+9½) 62-61 W vs. Louisville, Morehead State (+4) 48-65 L vs. Richmond
2012-Murray State (-5) 58-41 W vs. Colorado State; Murray State (+5) 53-62 L vs. Marquette
2013-Belmont (+4½) 64-81 L vs. Arizona
2014-Eastern Kentucky

PATRIOT
(SU 3-20, ATS 12-11)

1994-Navy (+20½) 53-76 L vs. Missouri
1995-Colgate (+27) 68-82 W vs. Kansas
1996-Colgate (+28) 59-68 W vs. UConn
1997-Navy (+19½) 61-75 W vs. Utah
1998-Navy (+28) 52-88 L vs. North Carolina
1999-Lafayette (+17½) 54-75 L vs. Miami Florida
2000-Lafayette (+21½) 47-73 L vs. Temple; Holy Cross (+20) 68-72 W vs. Kentucky
2002-Holy Cross (+28½) 59-70 W vs. Kansas
2003-Holy Cross (+10) 68-72 W vs. Marquette
2004-Lehigh (-4) 57-72 L play-in vs. Florida A&M
2005-Bucknell (+13½) 64-63 W vs. Kansas, Bucknell (+8) 62-71 L vs. Wisconsin
2006-Bucknell (+5) 59-55 W vs. Arkansas, Bucknell (+8) 56-72 L vs. Memphis
2007-Holy Cross (+7½) 51-61 L vs. Southern Illinois
2008-American (+19½) 57-72 W vs. Tennessee
2009-American (+16) 67-80 W vs. Villanova
2010-Lehigh (+25½) 74-90 W vs. Kansas
2011-Bucknell (+20) 52-81 L vs. UConn
2012-Lehigh (+12) 75-70 W vs. Duke; Lehigh (+4) 58-70 L vs. Xavier
2013-Bucknell (+3½) 56-58 L vs. Butler
2014-American

SOUTHERN
(SU 5-20, ATS 17-7-1)

1994-UT Chattanooga (+12) 73-102 L vs. Kansas
1995-UT Chattanooga (+16) 71-100 L vs. UConn
1996-Western Carolina (+20) 71-73 W vs. Purdue
1997-UT Chattanooga (+9) 73-70 W vs. Georgia, UT Chattanooga (+10) 75-63 W vs. Illinois, UT Chattanooga (+8) 65-71 W vs. Purdue
1998-Davidson (+15) 61-80 L vs. Michigan
1999-Charleston (-2) 53-62 L vs. Tulsa
2000-Appalachian State (+13½) 61-87 L vs. Ohio State;
2001-UNC Greensboro (+30) 60-89 W vs. Stanford;
2002-Davidson (+12½) 64-69 W vs. Ohio State;
2003-East Tennessee State (+12½) 73-76 W vs. Wake Forest;
2004-East Tennessee State (+9) 77-80 W vs. Cincinnati;
2005-Chattanooga (+17½) 54-70 W vs. Wake Forest;
2006-Davidson (+10½) 62-70 W vs. Ohio State;
2007-Davidson (+7) 70-82 L vs. Maryland;
2008-Davidson (-2) 82-76 W vs. Gonzaga, Davidson (+5) 74-70 W vs. Georgetown, Davidson (+4½) 73-56 W vs. Wisconsin, Davidson (+9½) 57-59 W vs. Kansas;
2009-Chattanooga (+20½) 47-103 L vs. UConn;
2010-Wofford (+10) 49-53 W vs. Wisconsin;
2011-Wofford (+8½) 66-74 W vs. BYU;
2012-Davidson (+7) 62-69 N vs. Louisville;
2013-Davidson (+3½) 58-59 W vs. Marquette
2014-Wofford

SOUTHLAND
(SU 3-20, ATS 9-13-1)

1994-SW Texas State (+16) 60-78 L vs. UMass
1995-Nicholls State (+13½) 72-96 L vs. Virginia
1996-NE Louisiana (+19½) 50-62 W vs. Wake Forest
1997-SW Texas State (+22) 46-78 L vs. Minnesota
1998-Nicholls State (+26) 60-99 L vs. Arizona
1999-UT San Antonio (+26½) 66-91 W vs. UConn
2000-Lamar (+32½) 55-82 W vs. Duke
2001-Northwestern State (+2½) 71-67 W play-in vs. Winthrop, Northwestern State (+26½) 54-96 L vs. Illinois
2002-McNeese State (+10½) 58-70 L vs. Mississippi State
2003-Sam Houston (+19) 55-85 L vs. Florida
2004-UT San Antonio (+24) 45-71 L vs. Stanford
2005-SE Louisiana (+18½) 50-63 W vs. Oklahoma State
2006-Northwestern State (+6½) 64-63 W vs. Iowa, Northwestern State (+8) 54-67 L vs. West Virginia
2007-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (+13) 63-76 N vs. Wisconsin
2008-UT-Arlington (+25) 63-87 W vs. Memphis
2009-Stephen F. Austin (+12) 44-59 L vs. Syracuse
2010-Sam Houston State (+12½) 59-68 W vs. Baylor
2011-UT San Antonio (-3) 70-61 W play-in vs. Alabama State, UT San Antonio (+24½) 46-75 L vs. Ohio State
2012-Lamar (+4) 59-71 L play-in vs. Vermont
2013-Northwestern State (+20) 47-79 L vs. Florida
2014-Stephen F. Austin

SWAC
(SU 1-19, ATS 9-11)

1994-Texas Southern (+20) 70-82 W vs. Duke
1995-Texas Southern (+18) 78-79 W vs. Arkansas
1996-Miss. Valley St. (+26) 56-93 L vs. Georgetown
1997-Jackson State (+35½) 64-78 W vs. Kansas
1998-Prairie View (+36½) 52-110 L vs. Kansas
1999-Alcorn State (+22) 57-69 W vs. Stanford
2000-Jackson State (+27½) 47-71 W vs. Arizona
2001-Alabama State (+28½) 35-69 L vs. Michigan State
2002-Alcorn State (+4½) 77-81 W play-in vs. Siena
2003-Texas Southern (-1) 74-82 L play-in vs. UNC Asheville
2004-Alabama State (+34) 61-96 L vs. Duke
2005-Alabama A&M (+6) 69-79 L play-in vs. Oakland
2006-Southern U (+24½) 54-70 W vs. Duke
2007-Jackson State (+28) 69-112 L vs. Florida
2008-Mississippi Valley State (+31½) 29-70 L vs. UCLA
2009-Alabama State (+3) 43-58 L play-in vs. Morehead State
2010-Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+3) 61-44 W play-in vs. Winthrop, Arkansas Pine-Bluff (+14½) 44-73 L vs. Duke
2011-Alabama State (+3) 61-70 L play-in vs. UT San Antonio
2012-Mississippi Valley State (-1) 58-59 L vs. Western Kentucky
2013-Southern U (+22½) 58-64 W vs. Gonzaga
2014-Texas Southern

SUMMIT
(SU 3-18, ATS 7-13-1)

1996-Valparaiso (+18) 51-90 L vs. Arizona
1997-Valparaiso (+10) 66-73 W vs. Boston College
1998-Valparaiso (+12) 70-69 W vs. Ole Miss, Valparaiso (+7½) 83-77 OT W vs. Florida State, Valparaiso (+8) 68-74 W vs. Rhode Island
1999-Valparaiso (+20) 60-82 L vs. Maryland
2000-Valparaiso (+25½) 38-65 L vs. Michigan State
2001-Southern Utah (+14) 65-68 W vs. Boston College
2002-Valparaiso (+7½) 68-83 L vs. Kentucky
2003-IUPUI (+26½) 64-95 L vs. Kentucky
2004-Valparaiso (+18½) 49-76 L vs. Gonzaga
2005-Oakland (-6) W 79-69 play-in vs. Alabama A&M; Oakland (+27½) L 68-96 vs. North Carolina
2006-Oral Roberts (+12) 78-94 L vs. Memphis
2007-Oral Roberts (+6½) 54-70 L vs. Washington State
2008-Oral Roberts (+8½) 63-82 L vs. Pittsburgh
2009-North Dakota State (+10) 74-84 N vs. Kansas
2010-Oakland (+10) L 66-89 vs. Pittsburgh
2011-Oakland (+10) 81-85 W vs. Texas
2012-South Dakota State (+7½) 60-68 L vs. Baylor
2013-South Dakota State (+11) L 56-71 Michigan. No reps '94-95. Note: known as Mid-Continent Conference until 2007
2014-North Dakota State

[StarDust Bum]

Tournament Predictions

March 19, 2014


On the eve of this BIG DANCE tipping off tomorrow afternoon (I do not really count these “First Four” games) let’s examine odds for winning both the championship & each region.

I have played out the NCAA Tournament 1,000 times using my SBPI Ratings (SportsBoss Power Index) and here are the results, first looking at winning the championship:

SBPI Forecast - NCAA Tournament
TEAM WIN TITLE % REGION SEED SBPI RANK ODDS
ARIZONA 22.6% WEST 1 2 8/1
FLORIDA 17.5% SOUTH 1 1 5/1
VILLANOVA 11.2% EAST 2 3 35/1
DUKE 6.5% SOUTH 3 4 18/1
LOUISVILLE 5.3% MIDWEST 4 9 8/1
VIRGINIA 5.2% EAST 1 7 18/1
TENNESSEE 4.4% MIDWEST 11 6 115/1
VCU 3.2% SOUTH 5 11 90/1
MICHIGAN 2.1% MIDWEST 2 13 30/1
KANSAS 1.6% SOUTH 2 17 10/1
BAYLOR 1.1% WEST 6 16 75/1
SYRACUSE 0.9% SOUTH 3 15 18/1
UCLA 0.2% SOUTH 4 23 45/1
MEMPHIS 0.2% EAST 8 34 125/1
PROVIDENCE 0.2% EAST 11 20 225/1
OKLAHOMA 0.2% WEST 5 27 75/1
KENTUCKY 0.2% MIDWEST 8 21 50/1
GONZAGA 0.1% WEST 8 55 125/1
CREIGHTON 0.1% WEST 3 30 35/1
OREGON 0.1% WEST 7 25 100/1
BYU 0.1% WEST 10 51 500/1


The SBPI gave us 21 possible winners of the upcoming NCAA Tournament, and the matrix above is sorted by winning %. Here is how those 21 teams break down by region:

EAST (4), SOUTH (6), WEST (7), MIDWEST (4)

Although the West has the most teams FOUR of those SEVEN are projected to win the championship just once out of 1,000 simulations, and another projected to win twice (Oklahoma). Two of the top four teams are from the South region in Florida & Duke. And only Arizona, Florida & Villanova were projected to win at least 100 of 1,000 simulations – making that trio the favorites using this analysis.

Next let’s take a look at each region, once again sorted by winning % - first up EAST:

SBPI Forecast - East Regional
TEAM WIN % SEED ODDS
VILLANOVA 43.2% 2 4/1
VIRGINIA 24.7% 1 3/1
MICHIGAN STATE 12.8% 4 5/2
CINCINNATI 6.1% 5 18/1
IOWA STATE 4.5% 3 6/1
PROVIDENCE 3.7% 11 33/1
NORTH CAROLINA 2.8% 6 14/1
UCONN 1.0% 7 16/1
MEMPHIS 0.6% 8 25/1
GEORGE WASHINGTON 0.4% 9 50/1
HARVARD 0.1% 12 50/1
ST. JOSEPHS 0.1% 10 50/1
COASTAL CAROLINA 0.0% 16 5000/1
DELAWARE 0.0% 13 500/1
UNC CENTRAL 0.0% 14 1000/1
MILWAUKEE 0.0% 15 10001


Villanova is projected to win the East region 432 of the 1,000 simulations, and considering they are the third favorite odds wise (behind Virginia & Michigan State) they may hold some value. Also considering if they were to reach the Regionals in NYC at MSG they would have a certain home-court advantage of sorts. Cincinnati ranks ahead of Iowa State, while Providence at 33/1 seems to also have value. Of the 16 teams in the region just 4 were not projected to win it at least one simulation.

Next up let’s examine the SOUTH:

SBPI Forecast - South Regional
FLORIDA 41.9% 1 3/2
OHIO STATE 18.3% 6 14/1
VCU 13.8% 5 9/1
KANSAS 10.4% 2 4/1
PITT 6.2% 9 14/1
SYRACUSE 6.0% 3 11/2
UCLA 1.9% 4 10/1
COLORADO 0.7% 8 50/1
STANFORD 0.7% 10 40/1
NEW MEXICO 0.1% 7 12/1
ALBANY 0.0% 16 1000/1
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.0% 12 150/1
TULSA 0.0% 13 300/1
DAYTON 0.0% 11 75/1
WESTERN MICHIGAN 0.0% 14 1000/1
EASTERN KENTUCKY 0.0% 15 1000/1


This region is projected to be even more wide open than the East as Florida is the favorite but the Gators are not projected to win as often as Villanova; in addition this region has three other schools projected to win the region at least 10% of the time, and just below them are Syracuse & Pitt who are both certainly not going to be an easy out. There is a ton of value in this region if you believe Florida will lose prior to reaching the Final Four. This region also has just ten of the sixteen teams projected to win the region at least once in 1,000 simulations.

Third we will examine the WEST:

SBPI Forecast - West Regional
ARIZONA 48.5% 1 7/5
WISCONSIN 21.1% 2 9/2
SAN DIEGO STATE 14.1% 4 10/1
BAYLOR 7.2% 6 14/1
CREIGHTON 3.7% 3 9/2
OREGON 1.9% 7 14/1
OKLAHOMA 1.7% 5 16/1
OKLAHOMA STATE 0.9% 9 12/1
BYU 0.4% 10 66/1
GONZAGA 0.3% 8 18/1
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.1% 12 50/1
NEBRASKA 0.1% 11 40/1
WEBER ST 0.0% 16 50001
NEW MEXICO STATE 0.0% 13 200/1
UL LAFAYETTE 0.0% 14 300/1
AMERICAN 0.0% 15 1000/1


Arizona is the clear cut favorite in this region projected to advance to the Final Four nearly 50% of the simulations. There seems to be some value on San Diego State & Baylor, while Creighton is tied for the 2nd most likely school to win the West according to Vegas but according to my simulations they are projected to win just 37 of 1,000 – 5th best in the region. Somewhat surprising may be the fact Oklahoma State is projected to win just 9 simulations – no value at all on the Cowboys.

Last up here is the breakdown of the MIDWEST:

SBPI Forecast - Midwest Regional
DUKE 27.6% 3 7/2
LOUISVILLE 26.2% 4 3/2
MICHIGAN 16.0% 2 11/2
TENNESSEE 15.6% 11 25/1
KENTUCKY 5.3% 8 12/1
WICHITA STATE 3.7% 1 4/1
SAINT LOUIS 1.9% 5 20/1
KANSAS STATE 1.6% 9 33/1
ARIZONA STATE 0.8% 10 50/1
UMASS 0.5% 6 40/1
TEXAS 0.5% 7 33/1
NC STATE 0.3% 12 35/1
CAL POLY 0.0% 16 5000/1
MANHATTAN 0.0% 13 500/1
MERCER 0.0% 14 1000/1
WOFFORD 0.0% 15 2000/1


Both of Wednesday's “First Four” games take place in this region thus I have advanced the higher rated team in each game according to the SBPI. Of course anyone that follows college basketball has heard how Wichita State was done no favors by the committee who seemingly stacked their region – and my simulation further supports that point. Look no further than the #1 seed Shockers are just the 6th favorite to advance to the Final Four from this region – wow, much lower than the other three #1 seeds. What’s more Duke won the most simulations, which is somewhat surprising considering many are boasting about Louisville’s chances at reaching another Final Four.

What you really want to search for here and in other probability analyses that are posted around the internet is value – big variances in projected winning % compared to a school’s odds. For example, going back to the last matrix on the Midwest, Wichita State is listed at 4/1 to reach the Final Four from this region; but my simulation shows they are the 6th most likely team to do such, meaning there doesn’t seem to be a lot of value on the Shockers. And the same is true for teams in a vice-versa situation such as Ohio State, who is the 2nd most likely team to advance to the Final Four from the South region according to our simulation, yet they are listed as long 14/1 odds to do so.

[StarDust Bum]

Field of 68 - Power Ratings

March 18, 2014


NIT Power Ratings

We are coming off projecting 67 of the Field of 68, just like Jerry Palm & Joe Lunardi; we missed SMU, which was one of our last four teams in the field (unlike those two who had them safely in) as we blogged & tweeted multiple times last week their resume wasn’t as strong as many led you to believe. We also expected one surprise team to show up in the field, and it was North Carolina State snagging that bid.

Now that the field is set here is some analysis using the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI) on each region:

SportsBoss Power Index - NCAA Tournament
Team Tournament Seed Region Power Ratings
Florida 1 SOUTH 1
Arizona 1 WEST 2
Virginia 1 EAST 7
Wichita State 1 MIDWEST 31
Villanova 2 EAST 3
Wisconsin 2 WEST 8
Michigan 2 MIDWEST 13
Kansas 2 SOUTH 17
Duke 3 MIDWEST 4
Syracuse 3 SOUTH 15
Iowa State 3 EAST 24
Creighton 3 WEST 30
Louisville 4 MIDWEST 9
San Diego State 4 WEST 12
Michigan State 4 EAST 14
UCLA 4 SOUTH 23
VCU 5 SOUTH 11
Cincinnati 5 EAST 19
Oklahoma 5 WEST 27
Saint Louis 5 MIDWEST 38
Ohio State 6 SOUTH 5
Baylor 6 WEST 16
North Carolina 6 EAST 22
Massachusetts 6 MIDWEST 36
Oregon 7 WEST 25
Connecticut 7 EAST 37
Texas 7 MIDWEST 43
New Mexico 7 SOUTH 59
Kentucky 8 MIDWEST 21
Memphis 8 EAST 34
Colorado 8 SOUTH 35
Gonzaga 8 WEST 55
Pittsburgh 9 SOUTH 10
Oklahoma State 9 WEST 29
Kansas State 9 MIDWEST 42
George Washington 9 EAST 45
Stanford 10 SOUTH 39
Arizona State 10 MIDWEST 46
Brigham Young 10 WEST 51
Saint Joseph's 10 EAST 54
Tennessee 11 MIDWEST 6
Iowa 11 MIDWEST 18
Providence 11 EAST 20
Dayton 11 SOUTH 47
Nebraska 11 WEST 56
Xavier 12 MIDWEST 40
Harvard 12 EAST 70
North Carolina State 12 MIDWEST 79
North Dakota State 12 WEST 87
Stephen F. Austin 12 SOUTH 173
Tulsa 13 SOUTH 90
Manhattan 13 MIDWEST 99
Delaware 13 EAST 155
New Mexico State 13 WEST 164
Louisiana-Lafayette 14 WEST 107
Mercer 14 MIDWEST 166
Western Michigan 14 SOUTH 220
North Carolina Central 14 EAST 255
Milwaukee 15 EAST 161
Eastern Kentucky 15 SOUTH 190
Wofford 15 MIDWEST 211
American University 15 WEST 217
Cal Poly 16 MIDWEST 117
Mount St. Mary's 16 SOUTH 201
Weber State 16 WEST 247
Albany 16 SOUTH 257
Coastal Carolina 16 EAST 302
Texas Southern 16 MIDWEST 323


The above matrix shows each team in the Field of 68 first sorted by seed, and secondarily sorted using their ranking in my SBP.

We then wanted to test each region’s strength using SBPI on three levels:

1. Entire region (taking the average SBPI rating of the teams involved in the 4 play-in games)

2. Top 8 in each region

3. Top 4 in each region

SBPI - Average Regional Rankings
Region Average Rank - Overall Average Rank - Top 8 Average Rank - Top 4
SOUTH 72.8 20.8 14.0
EAST 76.4 20.0 12.0
WEST 70.8 21.9 13.0
MIDWEST 65.7 24.4 14.3


The lower a score above the tougher the region – meaning we see some interesting scenarios.

While the Midwest is clearly the toughest region from top to bottom it is also ranked as the easiest when isolating the Top 8 & Top 4 teams in the region. A lot of the “strength” in the Midwest region is coming from the 11 line where the play-in game between Tennessee & Providence comes between two teams with an average rating of 12; the other three regions have ratings on the 11 line of 20, 47 & 56.

On the flip side the East region is clearly the weakest #1-16 but is also the toughest using Top 8 & Top 4 teams. Of the top 8 seeds the East does not have the weakest ranked team on any of the eight lines.

[wayne1218]

Bum you better get your bracket picks in by noon

[StarDust Bum]

Wayne i get to this site and it ask questions i don't even know the answers for......http://www3.poolhost.com/index.asp?p...arch%20Madness

[wayne1218]

What do you mean? You just log in and put your picks in.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Auburn is paying Bruce Pearl $2.2M a year to coach its basketball team; no wonder he seemed so happy Tuesday.

-- Eldrick Woods (back spasms) withdrew from Arnold Palmer's tournament this week, which puts his Masters participation in doubt.

-- Lebron James also has back spasms; Heat lost in Boston without him.

-- Lot of basketball, spring training stuff going on, but college football teams are having their spring practices now too.

-- Cal Poly 81, Texas Southern 69-- Mustangs plays Wichita State next.

-- Bulls 102, 76ers 94-- Shouldn't the Sixers get sent to the D-League?

*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Its the best four days of the year.....

13) If you like college basketball, going to Las Vegas for the first weekend of March Madness would be great fun, if not somewhat overwhelming. Vegas is always good but this weekend is like Mardi Gras, New Year’s and Christmas rolled into one.

This is one time where I’d recommend going with a group, since most everyone else does; that way you can save seats for each other in sportsbooks/clubs and things are just easier/more fun. In any event, I highly recommend the experience. Just get your rest before you go.

12) Throw back the clock to March 1999, my first March Madness in Vegas; I’m sitting in the sportsbook at the Palms, about to bet on Oregon in an NIT game and the waitress asks me if I want a drink. I look up and a woman who looked an awful lot like Pamela Anderson is standing there with her tray.

We had just flown out that day and I was tired; I tried to order a drink but words didn’t come out of my mouth. She was probably used to dorks like me gawking at her, but I felt stupid. No biggie, but if it wasn’t me I’d have laughed at myself. Won the Oregon bet, at least.

11) Jump ahead to March 2010, my most recent March Madness visit; its couple nights before the tournament, quiet in MGM Grand’s sportsbook, watching couple NBA games, when all of a sudden four guys behind me start jumping on each other and hugging like they just cured cancer.

I had to ask if the guy who just made the jumper for New Orleans was the one guy’s brother but he said “No, the Hornets got to 15 points first.”

I hadn’t realized there is a prop bet on NBA games, as to which team gets to 15 points first. Very unusual bet, but guess it stimulates action, which is what the casinos want, lot like betting first five innings in a baseball game. Casinos get creative with prop bets to increase action, and these guys won their bet, so they were happy. Happy is good.

10) 40 years ago this month, Maryland Terrapins were #3 in the country; they lost the ACC championship game in OT to NC State and didn’t even make the NCAA tournament, because back then, only the conference champ made the NCAAs. Terps jogged thru the NIT, winning the title game there by 30+ points (over Niagara, if I remember right) and NC State won the national title, but lot has changed since then, for sure.

9) Whatever happened to Billy Packer? Guy was all over TV for 35 years, then CBS dumps him and he never resurfaces? I’m thinking this is our loss- there are enough sorry TV guys on the airwaves, Packer deserves a voice on one of these networks, no?

8) I like casinos with 24-hour coffee shops, just adds to the who-cares-what time-it-is aura of a casino.

My three favorite, though I haven’t been in all of them are: Planet Dailies in Planet Hollywood, the coffee shop in the Orleans and the one in South Point. Believe me, you see all kinds of stuff in 24-hour coffee shops.

7) I’m still waiting for one valid, semi-sensible reason why Louisville is a #4 seed. Anybody got anything?

6) I have a database of pointspread records from the 64-team era of the tournament; the two biggest pointspread upsets I can find are:
1) Norfolk State (+21.5) beating Missouri in the first round two years ago and 2) Santa Clara (with Steve Nash) upsetting Arizona (+20) in the first round in 1993. Both were 2-15 games.

5) First Four has turned out to be better than I thought it would; it has kind of a JV/Varsity feel to it, with the 16-seeds playing first, then the better teams playing the nightcap. Think it would be even better if only the top eight at-large teams played, but that’s nitpicking. Actually, the tournament would be better off at 64 teams, with none of the extra stuff, but since they have it, at least they have a format which works pretty well.

4) CBS has done a good job putting all the games on regular TV; afternoon card is so spread out you really don’t have to go out to catch just about all the good action. For the night cards, a sports bar is necessary. Plus, CBS Sports Network runs the games back all night, the way ESPN used to in the old days, and that’s a great thing.

3) One more thing about being in Vegas this weekend; don’t forget, games start at 9:10am local time. Got to get at least a little sleep, ya know?

2) Baseball season starts at 4am Eastern time Friday night/Saturday morning from Australia, when Dodgers-Arizona play. Second game of the series is 10pm Saturday night, or Sunday afternoon in Australia. Lot of stuff going on; things move fast, you have to keep up.

1) By time I get to Las Vegas in mid-April, the NBA/NHL regular seasons will be over, baseball will be underway, college basketball will be over, and the NFL schedule for next year should be out. Going to be a busy few weeks before I get out there!!!!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

THURSDAY, MARCH 20

Game 709-710: Dayton vs. Ohio State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.934; Ohio State 67.658
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+6); Over

Game 711-712: Western Michigan vs. Syracuse (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.991; Syracuse 70.805
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15; 121
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 12 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-12 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: St. Joseph's vs. Connecticut (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 65.307; Connecticut 66.702
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+4 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: WI-Milwaukee vs. Villanova (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 50.016; Villanova 73.492
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 23 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Villanova by 16; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-16); Over

Game 719-720: Pittsburgh vs. Colorado (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 69.871; Colorado 61.781
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 133
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: Manhattan vs. Louisville (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 63.468; Louisville 76.569
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 13; 139
Vegas Line: Louisville by 16; 143
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+16); Under

Game 725-726: BYU vs. Oregon (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 63.606; Oregon 71.611
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8; 162
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-5); Over

Game 727-728: American vs. Wisconsin (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: American 52.300; Wisconsin 72.799
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 13; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-13); Over

Game 729-730: Arizona State vs. Texas (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 67.413; Texas 64.675
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3; 147
Vegas Line: Texas by 2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+2); Over

Game 731-732: Wofford vs. Michigan (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 54.631; Michigan 68.193
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Michigan by 16; 126
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+16); Under

Game 733-734: Harvard vs. Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 65.925; Cincinnati 66.883
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+3); Under

Game 735-736: Delaware vs. Michigan State (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 56.733; Michigan State 68.342
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+14); Under

Game 737-738: North Dakota State vs. Oklahoma (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 66.353; Oklahoma 67.846
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4; 150
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+4); Over

Game 739-740: New Mexico State vs. San Diego State (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.174; San Diego State 65.509
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+7 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, MARCH 21

Game 823-824: Mercer vs. Duke (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 55.402; Duke 70.933
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Duke by 12 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-12 1/2); Under

Game 825-826: Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 53.168; Virginia 71.410
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 18; 117
Vegas Line: Virginia by 21; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Coastal Carolina (+21); Under

Game 827-828: George Washington vs. Memphis (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 62.426; Memphis 67.993
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 5 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Memphis by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Over

Game 829-830: Stanford vs. New Mexico (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 68.385; New Mexico 68.202
Dunkel Line: Even; 130
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+4); Under

Game 831-832: Eastern Kentucky vs. Kansas (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 57.716; Kansas 70.742
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 13; 152
Vegas Line: Kansas by 15; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+15); Over

Game 835-836: Kansas State vs. Kentucky (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 63.668; Kentucky 71.295
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 5; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-5); Under

Game 837-838: Nebraska vs. Baylor (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 66.260; Baylor 71.837
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 5 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3); Over

Game 839-840: UL-Lafayette vs. Creighton (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 55.892; Creighton 72.541
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 17; 158
Vegas Line: Creighton by 13 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-13 1/2); Over

Game 841-842: Providence vs. North Carolina (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 63.636; North Carolina 70.487
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 7; 139
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4; 143
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-4); Under

Game 843-844: North Carolina Central vs. Iowa State (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina Central 62.369; Iowa State 67.345
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 5; 138
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 9; 144
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina Central (+9); Under

Game 845-846: Stephen F. Austin vs. VCU (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 62.457; VCU 66.241
Dunkel Line: VCU by 4; 129
Vegas Line: VCU by 6 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stephen F. Austin (+6 1/2);

Game 847-848: Tulsa vs. UCLA (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.629; UCLA 73.110
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2; 154
Vegas Line: UCLA by 9; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-9); Over

Game 849-850: Weber State vs. Arizona (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.314; Arizona 70.720
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Arizona by 20; 127
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+20); Under

Game 851-852: Oklahoma State vs. Gonzaga (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.094; Gonzaga 69.274
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 1; 143
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (+2 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAYTON (23 - 10) vs. OHIO ST (25 - 9) - 3/20/2014, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 216-169 ATS (+30.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
DAYTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


W MICHIGAN (23 - 9) vs. SYRACUSE (27 - 5) - 3/20/2014, 2:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ST JOSEPHS (24 - 9) vs. CONNECTICUT (26 - 8) - 3/20/2014, 6:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WI-MILWAUKEE (21 - 13) vs. VILLANOVA (28 - 4) - 3/20/2014, 9:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
VILLANOVA is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
VILLANOVA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 163-124 ATS (+26.6 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ALBANY (19 - 14) vs. FLORIDA (32 - 2) - 3/20/2014, 4:10 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PITTSBURGH (25 - 9) vs. COLORADO (23 - 11) - 3/20/2014, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NC STATE (22 - 13) vs. SAINT LOUIS (26 - 6) - 3/20/2014, 7:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MANHATTAN (25 - 7) vs. LOUISVILLE (29 - 5) - 3/20/2014, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 41-29 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 1-0 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BYU (23 - 11) vs. OREGON (23 - 9) - 3/20/2014, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 58-94 ATS (-45.4 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
BYU is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
BYU is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
BYU is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
BYU is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
BYU is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 70-113 ATS (-54.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OREGON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
OREGON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


AMERICAN (20 - 12) vs. WISCONSIN (26 - 7) - 3/20/2014, 12:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARIZONA ST (21 - 11) vs. TEXAS (23 - 10) - 3/20/2014, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
ARIZONA ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WOFFORD (20 - 12) vs. MICHIGAN (25 - 8) - 3/20/2014, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WOFFORD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 this season.
WOFFORD is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HARVARD (26 - 4) vs. CINCINNATI (27 - 6) - 3/20/2014, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in March games since 1997.
HARVARD is 93-123 ATS (-42.3 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
HARVARD is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
HARVARD is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games this season.
HARVARD is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
HARVARD is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DELAWARE (25 - 9) vs. MICHIGAN ST (26 - 8) - 3/20/2014, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


N DAKOTA ST (25 - 6) vs. OKLAHOMA (23 - 9) - 3/20/2014, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
N DAKOTA ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
N DAKOTA ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW MEXICO ST (26 - 9) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (29 - 4) - 3/20/2014, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against WAC opponents since 1997.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in March games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, March 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MERCER (26 - 8) vs. DUKE (26 - 8) - 3/21/2014, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MERCER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
DUKE is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
DUKE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


COASTAL CAROLINA (21 - 12) vs. VIRGINIA (28 - 6) - 3/21/2014, 9:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
VIRGINIA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VIRGINIA is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in March games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GEORGE WASHINGTON (24 - 8) vs. MEMPHIS (23 - 9) - 3/21/2014, 6:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 167-132 ATS (+21.8 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 210-162 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 139-89 ATS (+41.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


STANFORD (21 - 12) vs. NEW MEXICO (27 - 6) - 3/21/2014, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


E KENTUCKY (24 - 9) vs. KANSAS (24 - 9) - 3/21/2014, 4:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
E KENTUCKY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KANSAS ST (20 - 12) vs. KENTUCKY (24 - 10) - 3/21/2014, 9:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEBRASKA (19 - 12) vs. BAYLOR (24 - 11) - 3/21/2014, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
NEBRASKA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEBRASKA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
NEBRASKA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEBRASKA is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEBRASKA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA-LAFAYETTE (23 - 11) vs. CREIGHTON (26 - 7) - 3/21/2014, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PROVIDENCE (23 - 11) vs. N CAROLINA (23 - 9) - 3/21/2014, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PROVIDENCE is 37-58 ATS (-26.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 139-106 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NC CENTRAL (28 - 5) vs. IOWA ST (26 - 7) - 3/21/2014, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 42-28 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SF AUSTIN ST (31 - 2) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 8) - 3/21/2014, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TULSA (21 - 12) vs. UCLA (26 - 8) - 3/21/2014, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
UCLA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
UCLA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
UCLA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TULSA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games this season.
TULSA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
TULSA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
TULSA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
TULSA is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
TULSA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TULSA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TULSA is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
TULSA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WEBER ST (19 - 11) vs. ARIZONA (30 - 4) - 3/21/2014, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WEBER ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WEBER ST is 135-101 ATS (+23.9 Units) after a conference game since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OKLAHOMA ST (21 - 12) vs. GONZAGA (28 - 6) - 3/21/2014, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 1-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons