The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 16

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AAC Championship betting preview: UConn vs. Louisville
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Connecticut Huskies vs. Louisville Cardinals (-7.5, 135.5)

Russ Smith and Louisville appear to be hitting on all cylinders heading into Saturday's American Athletic Conference tournament final against Connecticut at Memphis. Smith scored a school postseason record 42 points in a semifinal win over No.6 Houston for the second-seeded Cardinals, who can claim their third straight conference tournament title with a victory over the Huskies. "We weren't sharp defensively tonight and when you're not sharp defensively, you need a great offensive performance and we certainly got that from Russ," head coach Rick Pitino told the media. "He was brilliant, penetrating, passing, getting in the lane and shooting the ball. He's done it all his senior year with everything you could possibly ask of a basketball player."

The fourth-seeded Huskies used a big second-half run to survive a battle with top-seeded Cincinnati and will look to avenge a pair of lopsided defeats against Louisville, including a 33-point loss on the road. Shabazz Napier, the conference Player of the Year, didn't have his best game, scoring just 15 points on 5-of-13 shooting, but got some help from his teammates, including 7-0 freshman Amida Brimah, who was bigger than his four points, seven rebounds and four blocks might indicate. "It was a collective team win," head coach Kevin Ollie told reporters. "We got down by seven, wasn't nobody pointing fingers. We just came together and stayed connected and we go one to the next one. That's what's it's all about.”

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The suggested odds out of Las Vegas are Louisville -7 with a total of 134.

INJURY WATCH: Louisville - Kevin Ware (Out - shin)

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (26-7): Ollie loved the fight his team showed against the tenacious defense from Cincinnati, which had held opponents to 39.3 shooting entering the game. "It seems like every time we play Cincy, it comes down to one possession," he told the media. "They are well coached and they play so hard and I thought we just stood up to them. We stayed in the middle of the ring and kept throwing punches. It was a great victory for UConn. This is a players game and my players stepped up." Two of the biggest punches were throwing by Ryan Boatright, who nailed two big 3-pointers to give the Huskies the lead for good with eight minutes remaining.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (28-5): Smith, who contemplated leaving early for the NBA after last season, also set a school record for points in a half with 27 in the first half and scored 42 despite not playing the final six minutes. Smith has been part of 118 wins during his time with the Cardinals and with two more, he can help the Cardinals to a third straight 30-win season. "I play for a coach that has a hunger and drive to win that you won't find nowhere else," he told the media. "I'm thankful for my teammates, because they buy into the system. When you buy into a system that's been successful, you're going to always be successful. I personally took that challenge to buy into the system and get better as a player, so I'm extremely happy where I'm at."

TRENDS:

*Huskies are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games
*Under is 12-1 in Huskies last 13 overall
*Over is 14-2 in Cardinals last 16 neutral site games
*Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings

CONSENSUS: 63 percent of wagers are on Louisville.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Michigan State vs. Michigan
The Spartans advanced to the Big Ten final yesterday with an 83-75 win over Wisconsin and faces a Michigan team that is coming off a 71-68 win over Ohio State and is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. Michigan State is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-3). Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, MARCH 16

Game 889-890: Duke vs. Virginia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 73.944; Virginia 70.484
Dunkel Line: Duke by 3 1/2; 123
Vegas Line: Duke by 1; 129
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-1); Under

Game 891-892: St. Joseph's vs. VCU (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 63.920; VCU 66.247
Dunkel Line: VCU by 2 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: VCU by 5; 138
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+5); Under

Game 893-894: UL-Lafayette vs. Georgia State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 56.748; Georgia State 61.948
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 5; 155
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 7; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+7); Over

Game 895-896: Kentucky vs. Florida (3:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 70.531; Florida 74.842
Dunkel Line: Florida by 4 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+6 1/2); Under

Game 897-898: Michigan State vs. Michigan (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 75.976; Michigan 70.396
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 5 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 3; 138
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-3); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 16

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DUKE (26 - 7) vs. VIRGINIA (27 - 6) - 3/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 47-74 ATS (-34.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
VIRGINIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
VIRGINIA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VIRGINIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 3-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-1 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST JOSEPHS (23 - 9) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 7) - 3/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST JOSEPHS is 3-0 against the spread versus VA COMMONWEALTH over the last 3 seasons
VA COMMONWEALTH is 2-1 straight up against ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA-LAFAYETTE (22 - 11) vs. GEORGIA ST (25 - 7) - 3/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
GEORGIA ST is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
GEORGIA ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
GEORGIA ST is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
GEORGIA ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in conference tournament games since 1997.
GEORGIA ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LA-LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA ST is 2-0 straight up against LA-LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (24 - 9) vs. FLORIDA (31 - 2) - 3/16/2014, 3:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 25-36 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 25-36 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 64-37 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 4-3 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 4-3 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (25 - 8) vs. MICHIGAN (25 - 7) - 3/16/2014, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 3-3 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 4-2 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Championship

March 16, 2014


A classic rivalry in the Big Ten will be renewed this Sunday afternoon when the Michigan State Spartans tangle with the Michigan Wolverines for this season’s conference tournament title. Tip-off for this championship game is slated for 3:30 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on CBS.

The Spartans stumbled down the stretch of the regular season with three straight-up losses in their final five games to fall to the No. 3 seed for this year’s Big Ten Tournament. They drew No. 11 seed Northwestern in the quarterfinals of this tournament and quickly returned to form with a 67-51 romp as 14 ½-point favorites. The total in that contest stayed UNDER the 122 ½-point closing line. Next up were the No. 2 seed Wisconsin Badgers in the semifinals and this time around Michigan State was favored by 2 ½ points. It jumped out to a 17-point lead at the half and held on for the 83-75 victory to advance to Sunday’s title game. The total went well OVER the 137 line in that game.

Against the spread, the Spartans have now paid off in their last four outings and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven contests. Saturday’s win raised their record to 3-2-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games.

Gary Harris and Adreian Payne have been Michigan State’s top two scorers all season long, but it was Branden Dawson who led the way in the win over the Wildcats with a team-high 16 points. Payne was held to just five points in that contest, but he regained his touch against the Badgers by going 7-for-10 from the field and 2-for-2 from long range to lead his team with 18 points. Dawson was next with 14 points and Harris added 12 points in the win. The Spartans shot 56.9 percent from the field and a deadly 53.8 percent from 3-point range on 13 attempts.

Michigan road a season-ending five-game SU winning streak to the Big Ten regular season title and the top seed for this week’s tournament. After sweating out a tight 64-63 victory against No. 9 seed Illinois in the quarterfinals as 7 ½-point favorites, the Wolverines clawed their way past No. 5 seed Ohio State 72-69 as 2 ½-point favorites in Saturday’s Semifinal Round. The total went OVER in both of those contests and it has now gone OVER in six of their last seven games.

Despite all of this success on the court, it has been hit or miss when it comes to betting on the Wolverines. They are 7-6 ATS in their last 13 games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. Michigan has failed to cover in three of its last five games played at a neutral site.

The big guns in this tournament for the Wolverines have been Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III. Stauskas put up 19 points in the win over the Fighting Illini and he led all Michigan scorers against the Buckeyes with 18 points that included a 4-for-8 mark from 3-point range. Robinson posted a combined 26 point and nine rebounds to help pace the two wins. Michigan has averaged 75 points a game this season while shooting 48.1 percent from the field. It has had its issues under the boards with just 31.9 rebounds a game, but the Wolverines remain deadly from the outside with a 39.8 shooting percentage from 3-point range. Stauskas has converted on 44.5 percent of his shots from beyond the arc this season.

Head-to-head in this in-state rivalry, Michigan has owned things in recent years with a SU 6-2 (5-3 ATS) record in the last eight meetings. It swept this regular season’s series both SU and ATS with an 80-75 victory in late January as a five-point road underdog followed by a 79-70 win as a 1 ½-point favorite at home on Feb. 23. The total went OVER in both of those contests after staying UNDER in eight of the previous nine meetings between the two. The Wolverines may be the higher seed in this tournament, but they have been opened as three-point underdogs for Sunday’s clash.

[hammy85]

Bum I thought W Ky was your GOY.The team listed at the bottom isn't your play?

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Championship

March 15, 2014


Florida (31-2 straight up, 16-12-1 against the spread) has never beaten Kentucky three times in the same season. The top-ranked Gators will have a chance to pull that trick when they take on the Wildcats in Sunday's SEC Tournament finals at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

ABC will have the telecast at 3:15 p.m. Eastern. Sportsbook.ag was the first book to post a line early Saturday night, opening UF as a 6.5-point favorite.

Billy Donovan's team withstood a game effort from Tennessee in Saturday's semifinals showdown. The Volunteers led by 10 late in the first half before Scottie Wilbekin buried a deep 3-pointer with a few ticks remaining to slice the deficit to 35-28 at intermission.

This opened up an opportunity for gamblers to take UF as a five-point favorite in the second half. This wager translated to having the Gators at +2 adjusted.

It was a sharp play because Florida clamped down on the Volunteers defensively in the final 20 minutes, holding them to just 14 points. With clutch free-throw shooting and a fortunate call(s) that went their way (and then resulted in a technical foul against UT's Jeronne Maymon), the Gators pulled away to win their 25th consecutive game by a 56-49 count as six-point favorites.

Trailing by five in the final seconds, UT missed from deep and fouled UF senior center Patric Young with 2.5 seconds remaining. Tennessee had been ahead of the number (+6) for 39 minutes and 57.5 seconds, but the spread cover was on the line when Young stepped to the charity stripe.

There have been many great storylines around Florida's fantastic campaign led by its four seniors. One of them has been the improvement of Young at the free-throw line. He was in the same exact situation as New Mexico center Alex Kirk was against Boise St. in Friday's MWC Tournament semifinals. With 1.2 seconds left, Kirk missed both free throws with a chance to hook UNM backers with a spread cover.

But Young didn't disappoint bettors on UF, burying both attempts to give UT backers a gut-wrenching loss. The spread cover was the fifth straight for the Gators, who took the cash in a 72-49 win over Missouri in the quarterfinals on Friday.

Kentucky (24-9 SU, 14-15-2 ATS) advanced to the finals by wearing down Georgia in a 70-58 win as an eight-point 'chalk.' Aaron Harrison scored a game-high 22 points thanks to 7-of-10 shooting from the field and 4-of-7 from three-point land. Julius Randle added 12 points and 11 rebounds for the Wildcats, who took out LSU in Friday's quarterfinals.

John Calipari's team has seemingly found new life in 'Catlanta, where the Big Blue Nation invades with enthusiasm every March that the city hosts the event. UK had struggled mightily during the last few weeks of the regular season, dropping three of its last four games.

Even worse for our purposes, the 'Cats failed to cover the number in five consecutive contests. Wins at Rupp Arena didn't come easy at all against Alabama and LSU. The Crimson Tide led UK by five at halftime in Lexington.

LSU was on the verge of winning outright at Rupp on February 22. However, with the Tigers leading by two with just a few seconds remaining, Randle was given a bail-out call to put him at the free-throw line. Replays clearly showed that Randle was never fouled and he clearly walked before the (non)-foul was called.

Randle buried both free throws to force overtime and UK eventually captured a 77-76 victory.

In the regular-season finale at Florida, UF sent out its senior-laden squad in style with an 84-65 win as a nine-point home favorite. Young was the catalyst with 18 points and seven rebounds, and Casey Prather needed only five shots from the field (all makes) to contribute 15 points. In the losing effort for UK, Randle finished with 16 points and 10 boards.

These bitter SEC rivals met for the first time at Rupp on February 15. Florida trailed for a good chunk of the game, only to turn it on in the final 10 minutes en route to a 69-59 win as a 2.5-point road underdog.

Prather led the way with a game-high 24 points. In two games against UK this year, the senior slasher has made 13-of-14 shots from the floor. Wilbekin added 23 points. For the 'Cats, Andrew Harrison had a team-best 20 points, while James Young finished with 19. Randle had a double-double with 13 points and 13 boards.

The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these programs. The 'under' has been a major money maker in UF games this year, cashing at a 19-9 overall clip. The 'under' is 17-12-1 overall for Kentucky.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, March 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Duke - 1:00 PM ET Duke -1 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Virginia - Over 127 500

St. Joseph's - 1:00 PM ET St. Joseph's +4.5 500 *****
VCU - Over 135 500

Louisiana-Lafayette - 1:00 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Georgia St - Over 148 500

Kentucky - 3:15 PM ET Florida -7 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Florida - Under 129.5 500

Michigan St - 3:30 PM ET Michigan +3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Michigan - Under 140 500

[StarDust Bum]

Hammy am not sure what your talking about ....game at what bottom?

[hammy85]

My bad Bum I was in a hurry and was reading it across and didn't even pay attention to the second team being listed right below.I was on vacation so had a little buzz and in kind of a hurry.Some how I ended up on the right side of that game anyway. lol Thanks

[StarDust Bum]

Booms and Busts

March 17, 2014


POTENTIAL TOURNAMENT BOOMS

Massachusetts
The Minutemen are no stranger to big games. They are 6-1 against teams in the RPI top 50 and have non-conference wins over LSU, Nebraska, New Mexico, Clemson, BYU, and Providence. Currently UMass is 12th in RPI & 47th in KenPom and is projected as a No. 7 seed.

New Mexico
New Mexico features one of the top trio’s of scorers with Cameron Bairstow (20.3 PPG), Kendall Williams (16.9 PPG), and Alex Kirk (13.8 PPG). A trustworthy trio can work wonders in tournament time. The Lobos played a tough non-conference sched - W’s against Cincinnati & Marquette, L’s to Kansas and Massachusetts - and are getting hot at the right time (11-1 the last 12 games). The Lobos rank 20th in RPI and 32nd in KenPom and project as a No. 7 seed.

VCU
Coach Shaka Smart is no stranger to March Madness after leading the Rams made a big run to the Final Four in 2011. They’ve had their ups (won at Virginia) and downs (lost to Northern Iowa) early in the season but consistently one of the better teams in the Atlantic 10. VCU’s “havoc” defense is one of the toughest to prepare for. When the offense is clicking along with its stout defense, watch out. The Rams are 22nd in RPI & 16th in KenPom and currently project as a No. 7 seed.

Baylor
A lot of people wrote off the Bears after a 1-7 stretch; but they’re getting hot at the right time. They’ve gone 6-1 over the last seven games and worked their way back into the tournament discussion (currently a No. 11 seed) with quality wins over Kansas State (2x), Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. The Big 12 conference slate was tough in itself and Baylor added a difficult non-conference schedule on top of that. Overall they faced 14 teams in the RPI top 50 (6-8 in those games).

POTENTIAL TOURNAMENT BUSTS

Pittsburgh
After a 17-2 start, it was hard to envision this team struggling to make the tournament, but with a 4-6 mark over the last 10 and just one win over a projected tournament team (Stanford), this team now finds itself on the bubble. The Panthers are 0-6 against RPI top-25 teams and just 2-8 ATS over the last 10.

Ohio State
The Bucks started 15-0 but have slipped up a few times in Big Ten play. They own an elite defense (2nd nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating), but struggle mightily on offense. Over the last 10 years, only one team has made the Final Four with an offensive efficiency ranking lower than 100 - Ohio State currently ranks 117th in OEff. They won the Big Ten tournament last year and made a run to the Elite 8 in the Big Dance, but we don’t see it happening again.

Kentucky
This is a talented squad but VERY young. Calipari has worked wonders with youthful squads before (won the tournament in 2011 with a similarly green squad), but that won’t happen this year. The Wildcats only have one win over a current tournament team and are 1-6 against RPI top-50 teams.

Gonzaga
The tournament darling of the past 15 years is one you might want to steer clear of come tournament time. The Zags didn’t play any RPI top-25 teams and went just 2-3 against teams ranked 26-50 in RPI. They won the weak West Coast Conference, but overall don’t have an impressive resume. Their best wins include a neutral court victory over Arkansas and a road win over West Virginia (Arkansas is currently one of the last four in the tournament).

Oregon
The Ducks made a nice run in March last year. They won the Pac-12 tournament and made it to the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed before losing to the eventual national champion, Louisville. They’ve currently won seven straight after a 3-8 start in conference play but only two of those six wins have come against potential tournament teams.

[StarDust Bum]

Maturing Zanna vital to Pitt's chances

March 17, 2014



PITTSBURGH (AP) - Pittsburgh's chances of ending its NCAA tournament disappointments will depend largely on the long arms and quick feet of center Talib Zanna.

It's a position the senior from Kaduna, Nigeria is finally comfortable with after years of struggling to play with confidence or consistency.

Zanna was named to the All-Atlantic Coast Conference tournament first team after averaging 17 points and 13 rebounds during the Panthers' three-game run to the semifinals.

It was the kind of head-turning performance that will certainly make eighth-seeded Colorado (23-11) take notice when they face the ninth-seeded Panthers (25-9) in the second round on Thursday in Orlando, Fla..

''He's a leader, he's a senior, and when you see him going, it just gets the ball rolling,'' Pitt senior forward Lamar Patterson said. ''Everything was clicking.''

All part of the plan for Pitt, which was basically a .500 team after losing emotional sparkplug Durand Johnson for the season with a knee injury in mid-January. Pitt's postseason prospects appeared to be in jeopardy heading into the ACC tournament only to see them solidified by Zanna's dynamic play.

Zanna set the tone for his team Thursday when he had 17 points and nine rebounds against Wake Forest in the Panthers' opening game.

After rolling the Demon Deacons, the fifth-seeded Panthers upset the fourth-seeded North Carolina on the back of an inspired performance by Zanna.

He dominated North Carolina's talented frontcourt featuring James Michael McAdoo, Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson, with 19 points and 21 rebounds in 34 minutes before fouling out.

Zanna said ''we made our statement'' as the Panthers beat a ranked team for the first time this season.

Even in defeat, Zanna was one of the best players on the court. He scored 12 points in the first half of the semifinals against Virginia but finished with 15 as the Cavaliers found ways to neutralize him with added pressure via double teams. Despite falling short of the ACC title game, Zanna thinks Pitt accomplished something in Greensboro.

''We needed a couple wins to have a better seed for the NCAA tournament,'' Zanna said. ''We are the ninth seed right now and we cannot worry about it.''

From coach Jamie Dixon's perspective, Zanna's play had a lot to do with health after dealing with a twisted ankle for the latter part of the season. Zanna certainly looked healthy while playing like one of the better big men in the country.

''We have been playing our best basketball this year at this point,'' Dixon said. ''Talib seems healthy and Lamar is doing well.''

Zanna's attitude remains unchanged heading into the tournament. If the Panthers win Thursday, they will likely face No. 1 overall seed Florida on Saturday.

For Pitt to have a shot at winning more than one game in this year's tournament - something the Panthers haven't done since 2009 - Zanna will not only have to continue to elevate his game but set the bar for the rest of his team.

''I think the seed doesn't matter because a couple years back, a lot of (Pitt) teams had a No. 1 seed and in the first round they went down,'' Zanna said. ''It's who has the heart to come out and dominate and play like they want it so bad, so that's the people who (are) going to win the tournament.''

[StarDust Bum]

SFA on 28-game run heading to NCAAs

March 17, 2014



Stephen F. Austin is headed to the NCAA tournament as the first 30-win team in Southland Conference history.

The Lumberjacks have more wins than Karl Malone's Louisiana Tech team that went to the Sweet 16 and finished 29-3 in 1985. SFA's No. 12 seed in the South Region is the best for the conference since Malone's bunch was at No. 5.

The Lumberjacks play in San Diego on Friday against VCU, one of the few double-digit seeds to reach the Final Four when the Rams made it to Houston at No. 11 in 2011.

Led by Southland Conference player of the year Jacob Parker, Stephen F. Austin has a 28-game winning streak, second in the country behind undefeated and top-seeded Wichita State.

[StarDust Bum]

Xavier in familiar place versus NC State

March 17, 2014




DAYTON, Ohio (AP) - Get on Interstate 75, drive north for less than an hour, play in an arena that's been a mainstay on the schedule for decades. Seems like Xavier has a built-in advantage for its opening NCAA game.

Oh, but those slow-to-forget Dayton fans will try to do something about it.

The Musketeers (21-12) play a First Four game against North Carolina State (21-13) on Tuesday night at the University of Dayton Arena, the site of many storied games against the Flyers. That rivalry went into hiatus when Xavier moved into the Big East this season, leaving the Flyers and the Atlantic 10 behind.

Both teams reached the NCAA tournament - Dayton plays Ohio State in Buffalo on Thursday. Many of their fans will still be at home on Tuesday, intermingled with the Xavier fans in the stands.

It's not going to be all cheers for the home team.

''I'm sure it will be a bit of oil-and-vinegar tomorrow night,'' Xavier coach Chris Mack said.

Five things to watch in their First Four game:

ROOMMATE REUNION: The teams have never played, but they have one close tie. Sophomore Semaj Christon, who is Xavier's leading scorer, was the roommate of sophomore T.J. Warren, the ACC's player of the year and top scorer, when they played together at Brewster Academy one year. They've kept in contact and are looking forward to going against each other.

''We have a good relationship,'' said Warren, who is averaging 24.8 points per game. ''I'm familiar with his game. He's from Cincinnati, so it's not too far from here. So it's going to be a lot of fun to play against him in the NCAA tournament. Really looking forward to it.''

STOPPING WARREN: Warren is back on the same court where he had a rough NCAA tournament debut as a freshman. He scored only four points on 2-of-5 shooting during a 76-72 loss to Temple at UD Arena last March. The Owls' Khalif Wyatt scored 31 points despite an injured left thumb. The Wolfpack were one-and-done. ''It was pretty tough, losing in the first round,'' Warren said. ''Don't want to repeat that.''

HOW IS STAINBROOK? Xavier suffered a big setback when center Matt Stainbrook - the Big East's second-leading rebounder - sprained his left knee in the second-to-last regular season game. He sat out the final regular-season game, a loss to Villanova, and played 15 minutes in a win over Marquette in the conference tournament. The knee was bothering him and he was limited to 9 minutes in a loss to Creighton the following day. How much he can play will have a significant impact on the game.

''I feel a ton better,'' Stainbrook said before practice Tuesday. ''I've had a little more time to get my legs back.''

ALL THOSE NEWCOMERS: Neither team has much NCAA tournament experience, which could come into play Tuesday night. North Carolina State has two players who played in the tournament last year. Xavier failed to reach the tournament last season, ending a streak of seven straight appearances and leaving the Musketeers short on March experience, too.

''We have so many young guys, this is a new experience for them,'' N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried said. ''We need to make sure that we're not just excited to be here because when you're young, sometimes that happens.''

''I think what tournament play comes down to is being yourself, not getting rattled by the environment,'' Mack said.

NOT AT HOME: The Musketeers will be the home team in theory. How it actually works out will be interesting with so many Flyer fans rooting against Xavier. When the Musketeers took the court for practice on Monday night, three red-shirted Flyers fans stood behind the basket chanting: ''Let's Go Wolfpack!''

There's plenty of history in the arena for Xavier, which has played Dayton since 1919 in a hard-edged rivalry. Mack's wife, Christi, was inducted into Dayton's Hall of Fame this month in recognition of her basketball career with the Flyers. One of Xavier's greatest tournament moments came during the the A-10 tournament in 2004, when the Musketeers beat No. 1 Saint Joseph's and won four games in a row, knocking off Dayton on the Flyers' home court in the title game.

''I think it's going to make for a great environment,'' Mack said. ''I'd rather play in a supercharged atmosphere than a hollow one, and we're going to have that tomorrow night.''

[StarDust Bum]

Tournament Outlook

March 17, 2014


The No. 1 seeds for the 2014 NCAA Tournament are Florida, Wichita State, Virginia and Arizona. The Gators are the No. 1 overall seed and bring a 26-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament. The LVH Superbook has UF installed as the 4/1 favorite to cut the nets down in Dallas.

Michigan St. has the second-shortest odds (+450), but the Big Ten Tournament champs are a No. 4 seed. I have the Spartans third in my updated power rankings, behind No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Louisville.

The next-shortest odds belong to Arizona (6/1), Kansas (8/1), Wichita St. (15/1), Virginia (15/1), Duke (15/1), Syracuse (15/1) and Louisville (15/1).

Speaking of the Cardinals, they are also a No. 4 seed. I understand that the Selection Committee has to take into account every team's entire resume. Therefore, I'm ok with Michigan St. and Louisville not being top seeds. But four seeds?! Really?

Tom Izzo's team had late-season home losses to Nebraska and Illinois, so I can see the Spartans being a No. 3 seed. But U of L should be no worse than a two seed.

Let's cruise through each region with some instant analysis...

South Region

Florida will face the winner of Mt. St. Mary's vs. Albany on Thursday in Orlando. In the 2006 NCAA Tournament, the Great Danes faced top-seeded UConn and led by a 50-38 score with 11 minutes remaining. The Huskies would rally to win, but Albany gave us one of the biggest challenges from a No. 16 seed in Tournament history.

Assuming the Gators advance, they'll face the winner of Colorado vs. Pittsburgh. I liked how the Panthers played in the ACC Tourney and expect them to get past the Buffaloes.

In the 5/12 matchup, VCU will take on Stephen F. Austin in San Diego. Bettors should check the status of VCU's Melvin Johnson, who injured his knee in the Atlantic 10 Tournament semifinals.

Johnson was on crutches for the Rams' loss to St. Joseph's in the A-10 Tourney finals. He averages 10.4 points per game. Shaka Smart owns a 7-3 career record in the NCAA Tournament, leading VCU to the 2011 Final Four.

Stephen F. Austin hasn't lost since Nov. 23. The Lumberjacks only played one team in the Top 95 of the RPI. They led at Texas by four at intermission but ended up on the wrong end of a 72-62 decision.

If form holds in the South, the Sweet 16 matchups would be Florida vs. UCLA and Kansas vs. Syracuse. That would give Memphis a pair of national-title game rematches. Carmelo Anthony led the 'Cuse past KU in the finals of the 2003 Tourney, while Florida put on a dunk contest against the Bruins in the 2006 finals.

West Region

Arizona's path to North Texas is littered with potholes. In fact, the Wildcats are in the most danger of failing to get to the Sweet 16 out of the No. 1 seeds. Why, you ask? Well, because they might have to go against Oklahoma St. the first weekend.

Since Marcus Smart returned from a three-game suspension, the Cowboys are playing like the Final Four contender they appeared to be back in November and December. Travis Ford's team will go up against Gonzaga in its first game.

If Arizona gets to Anaheim, the host city for the West Region semifinals, it will most likely be looking at a matchup against Oklahoma or San Diego St., both of whom are capable of beating the Wildcats.

The West's No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, Wisconsin and Creighton, respectively, have difficult paths to Anaheim, too. The Badgers might have to face Oregon, albeit in Milwaukee. The Ducks, who get to play a BYU team that'll be without its second-best player Kyle Collinsworth (ACL tear), had won eight in a row before losing to UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament.

The Bluejays and National Player of the Year Doug McDermott will get the winner of Baylor-Nebraska if they advance past No. 14 seed UL-Lafayette, which upset Ga. St. in overtime to earn its first NCAA bid since 2005 when it lost to Louisville.

Like Oklahoma St., Baylor has put its January/early February woes in the rearview mirror and Scott Drew's squad would have a significant size advantage against Creighton. The Bears also have one of nation's best 3-point shooters in Brady Heslip.

Midwest Region

The top-seeded Shockers might face the last team it lost to in the Midwest semifinals. That would be fourth-seeded Louisville, which trailed for a big chunk of its national semifinal showdown against Wichita St. last year before rallying to win and eventually capture the 2013 national championship.

That rematch isn't a given by any means, however. For starters, Gregg Marshall's team will have to take on the Kansas St.-Kentucky winner. There's no doubt that both groups of Wildcats have the talent to beat Wichita St and Louisville. In fact, UK knocked off Rick Pitino's team earlier this season at Rupp Arena.

The third-seeded Duke Blue Devils better be on upset alert when they collide with Mercer. The Bears won at Ole Miss, at Ohio and vs. Seton Hall during the regular season, and they lost by just three at Texas. Bob Hoffman's team also has two wins over Florida Gulf Coast, which advanced to the Sweet 16 last season.

If form holds in the Midwest, Duke would face second-seeded Michigan in the region semifinals in Indianapolis. That would be a rematch of the 1992 finals and a hotly-contest second-round game in the 2011 Tournament.

East Region

In order, the top seeds in the East are Virginia, Villanova, Iowa St. and Michigan St. This region's semifinals will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

The top-seeded Cavaliers will face Coastal Carolina, which is coached by 68-year-old Cliff Ellis. Coastal Carolina is the fourth school Ellis has taken to the Tournament. He was Clemson's head coach in the 1990 Tourney when UConn's Tate George hit the baseline buzzer beater after receiving the length-of-the-court pass from Scott Burrell at the Meadowlands. (Who could ever forget the look of disbelief on Elden Campbell's face?) If the Cavs advance, they would get the winner of George Washington vs. Memphis. I'm not certain that we'll get a Michigan St.-Virginia showdown at MSG, and it's not because I think Memphis or GW will knock off UVA.

I find it ridiculous that Cincinnati seems to be the team everyone is sleeping on in this region. In fact, like I've been saying for months, I won't be surprised if the fifth-seeded Bearcats make it to Dallas. With the exception of Florida, Cincy probably defends and rebounds better than any team in America.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- UCLA fans had to cringe when they saw the Bruins in the same region as Florida. The Gators have sent UCLA packing from the NCAA Tournament three times since 2006.

-- Speaking of cringing, how pissed were Stephen F. Austin fans when d-bag Seth Davis (the college hoops equivalent of Mark May) predicted it to get all the way to the Sweet 16? Davis gave the Lumberjacks the kiss of death. I'm not sure that dork has ever given out an accurate prediction on Selection Sunday.

-- I felt like the Selection Committee made a number of mistakes. The worst was leaving SMU out of the field. I would have had the Mustangs in ahead of BYU. I wouldn't have had a problem with BYU getting a bid if not for the injury to Collinsworth, who was the Cougars' top rebounder, leading assist man and second-leading scorer. And Dave Rose's team didn't even have to go to Dayton? I already noted the seeding mistakes with U of L and Michigan St., but what about New Mexico?! The Lobos are a seven seed? That's deplorable. They beat fifth-seeded Cincy by 19 points and have two wins over fourth-seeded San Diego St. With that said, I'm not that pissed if I'm 'Noodles' Neal, the former Ga. Tech guard who is in his first season as head coach at UNM. That's because I think UNM will handle Stanford in its opening game and would face Kansas without Joel Embiid. In other words, you'd rather be a seven seed than a three seed in KU's region because you want to get the Jayhawks with Embiid in street clothes.

-- When I think of a true sleeper team, I'm talking about a team that seeded fifth or worse and is capable of producing a six-game winning streak. In this year's field, I think the legit sleepers include Cincy, UNC, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kentucky and Kansas State, Oklahoma and North Carolina State.

--I left New Mexico, Providence, Pittsburgh and UConn off the above list of legit sleepers, but none of those four teams will get eliminated without a fight.

--I've always liked Clark Kellogg, but I can't give him a pass on his egregious error during the Selection Show on CBS. Who the hell is Peter Dinwiddie?! Colorado's Spencer Dinwiddie has been one of the best players in the Pac-12 the last two years. Moments after Kellogg's mistake, Peter Dinwiddie was trending on twitter. If I'm CU coach Tad Boyle, Kellogg's first name is either Leonard or Eugene moving forward.

-- Best First-Round Games:

1-Harvard vs. Cincinnati
2-Kentucky vs. Kansas St.
3-North Carolina vs. Providence
4-Baylor vs. Nebraska
5-Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma St.
6-Tennessee vs. Iowa

--I guess UT-Iowa is technically the only first-round game these days, but I don't subscribe to this new verbiage that calls the games in Dayton first-rounders and refers to the Round of 32 as the third round.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA tournament odds: Spreads for opening matchups

Selection Sunday has come and gone. The field for the NCAA tournament is set and oddsmakers are frantically posting odds on the opening round (play-in games) and the Round 2 action (Thursday and Friday). Here's a look at the opening odds for those games:

Play-in Games

Mount St. Mary's vs Albany (-2.5)

Xavier vs North Carolina State (+1)

Texas Southern vs Cal Poly (-2.5)

Tennessee vs Iowa (+2)


Round 2

March 19

Pittsburgh vs Colorado (+6.5)

Dayton vs Ohio St. (-5)

Western Michigan vs Syracuse (-13)

North Dakota State vs Oklahoma (-2.5)

New Mexico St. vs San Diego St. (-6)

Brigham Young vs Oregon (-2)

American U. vs Wisconsin (-10)

Manhattan vs Louisville (-12.5)

Arizona St. vs Texas (-2.5)

Wofford vs Michigan (-14)

Harvard vs Cincinnati (-3.5)

Delaware vs Michigan St. (-13)

St. Joseph's vs Connecticut (-4)

Wis.-Milwaukee vs Villanova (-14.5)


March 20

Stephen F. Austin vs VCU (-8)

Tulsa vs UCLA (-9)

Stanford vs New Mexico (-3.5)

Eastern Kentucky vs Kansas (-13)

Weber St. vs Arizona (-14.5)

Oklahoma St. vs Gonzaga (+1)

Nebraska vs Baylor (-2.5)

Louisiana-Lafayette vs Creighton (-13.5)

Kansas St. vs Kentucky (-4)

Mercer vs Duke (10.5)

Coastal Carolina vs Virginia (-19)

George Washington vs Memphis (-2.5)

North Carolina Central vs Iowa St. (-9)

Providence vs North Carolina (-5)

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six teams whose average defensive possesssion is longest this season......

6) Arizona Wildcats 19.7

T4) Denver Pioneers 19.8

T4) Virginia Cavaliers 19.8

3) Clemson Tigers 19.9

2) Florida Gators 20.1

1) Syracuse Orangemen 21.1

*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Doug McDermott mentioned something interesting Sunday night, about how he has to adjust to a different basketball now that NCAA tourney was starting. Conferences have sponsorship deals with different companies; the NCAA’s basketball deal is with Wilson—don’t think too many leagues use a Wilson ball during the regular season.

Shooters care a lot about the right feel of a ball in their hands, so guys like McDermott are using these precious few days before the tournament starts to get used to a new piece of equipment in their toolkit.

12) Oddsmakers in Las Vegas mocked the idea of Louisville as a #4-seed, saying Florida/Michigan State are only two teams that would be favored over the Cardinals this month.

11) FOX Sports1 is doing remotes on its nightly highlights show from LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas, the best one in town and the hotel I’m staying at next month. Very good cheesesteaks in a deli in the back of the sportsbook.

10) Mercer is jumping from Atlantic Sun to Southern Conference next year for football; its basketball team will find SoCon a couple steps down from Atlantic Sun, much like Belmont has found the Ohio Valley Conference.

9) Hopefully all this conference jumping will end someday; Rutgers, Maryland move next year, and a few C-USA teams jump to the AAC, while Louisville slides into the ACC. New Mexico State needs a better home, so it doesn’t have to play basketball in the depleted WAC anymore.

8) 4-5 years from now, is the Big East going to look stupid for having both Butler/Creighton in it? In other words, can they recruit well enough to compete in a top-level conference?

7) Monday morning’s earthquake in Los Angeles was the strongest one there in twenty years.

6) Two years after firing Seth Greenberg, if Virginia Tech called and wanted him back to replace the fired James Johnson, would he go? Greenberg is good on ESPN, one of their better college hoop voices; not sure what the money is like, but I’d be hesitant to bolt TV for another coaching gig, if I were him, but that’s easy for me to say. Coaching can be very addictive.

5) Monday’s Cub-Angel game in Mesa sold out. Why? They give stuff away? Did they serve green beer? Spring training baseball is very popular.

4) Teddy Bridgewater apparently had a disappointing pro day on his own college campus; how does this happen?

Why not throw at the NFL Combine? Now he could conceivably slide out of the first round, which would cost him a small fortune in his first contract. I don’t understand why guys won’t trust their own ability and just throw at the Combine.

3) Not surprised that Syracuse has the longest average possession on defense (0:21.1) in the country, but was very surprised that Florida was second (0:20.1). Top six on this list is up above and its an impressive list.

2) When you see a team like UNLV or Indiana turn down bids to the CBI and CIT, it means pretty much that they had poor team chemistry and the coaches see no value in having the team stay together any longer; they can cut ties with any players they want to get rid of, and work out with the ones they’re moving forward with.

In other words, it was a lousy year and the coaches are relieved its over without them getting fired. No one turns down the NIT because the NCAA owns the NIT, but the CBI and CIT are second-rate events and not every program wants to be bothered.

1) This bears repeating: college scholarships are one-year, renewable deals. If a coach doesn’t want a player to come back next year, he’ll simply (and mostly quietly) tell the player he’s not going to be welcome back next year, and either find the kid a place to transfer to, or wish him well with his education and move on while the kid is on his own for his next step.

This is how Ryan Harrow went from Kentucky to Georgia State this year. Coaches get fired for losing, after all, so they’re not going to keep kids around who they think are hindering the process, whether that is fair or unfair. At the end of the day, it is a big-money business.