The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

RECORD AFTER THURSDAY'S ACTION:

MARCH TOTALS:

45- 64 - 3.....................SINGLE PLAYS

24 - 21 - 1............................DOUBLE PLAYS

20 - 15 - 1.............................TRIPLE PLAYS

2- 1 ...........................CONFERENCE GOY




Seton Hall - 7:00 PM ET Seton Hall +2.5 500 *****
Providence -

Iowa St. - 7:00 PM ET Iowa St. +4.5 500 *****
Kansas -

Houston - 7:00 PM ET Louisville -19.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Louisville -

Louisiana State - 7:00 PM ET Kentucky -4.5 500
Kentucky -

N.C. State - 7:00 PM ET Syracuse -9 500
Syracuse -

Arkansas-Little Rock - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas St. -5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Arkansas St. -

Coppin St. - 8:00 PM ET Coppin St. +3.5 500
Morgan St. -

Sam Houston St. - 8:30 PM ET Sam Houston St. -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Texas A&M CC -

Northwestern - 8:55 PM ET Northwestern +14.5 500 *****
Michigan St -

[StarDust Bum]

ANOTHER SET OF GAMES:


Coppin St. - 8:00 PM ET Coppin St. +3.5 500
Morgan St. -

Sam Houston St. - 8:30 PM ET Sam Houston St. -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Texas A&M CC -

Northwestern - 8:55 PM ET Northwestern +14.5 500 *****
Michigan St -

UNLV - 9:00 PM ET San Diego St. -4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego St. -

Colorado - 9:00 PM ET Arizona -11.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Arizona -

Idaho - 9:00 PM ET Utah Valley -3 500 *****
Utah Valley -

Connecticut - 9:00 PM ET Connecticut -1 500 *****
Cincinnati -

Massachusetts - 9:00 PM ET Massachusetts -1.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
George Washington -

Eastern Michigan - 9:00 PM ET Toledo -3 500
Toledo -

Clemson - 9:00 PM ET Duke -9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Duke -

Northern Colorado - 9:05 PM ET Northern Colorado +6 500
Weber St. -

Mississippi - 9:25 PM ET Georgia -1 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Georgia -

Prairie View A&M - 9:30 PM ET Prairie View A&M +4 500
Alabama A&M -

Baylor - 9:30 PM ET Baylor -1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Texas -

Texas-Arlington - 9:30 PM ET Texas-Arlington +6.5 500 *****
Louisiana-Lafayette -

Xavier - 9:30 PM ET Creighton -6.5 500 *****
Creighton -

Cal Poly SLO - 9:30 PM ET UC Irvine -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
UC Irvine -

[StarDust Bum]

FINAL SET OF GAMES FOR THE NIGHT:


Stanford - 11:30 PM ET Stanford +3 500 *****
UCLA -

Boise St. - 11:30 PM ET New Mexico -4.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
New Mexico -

Cal. State - Bakersfield - 11:30 PM ET New Mexico St. -10.5 500 *****
New Mexico St. -

CSU Northridge - 11:59 PM ET CSU Northridge +6.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Long Beach St. -

[StarDust Bum]

Florida vs. Tennessee

March 14, 2014


Florida (30-2 straight up, 15-12-1 against the spread) advanced to the SEC Tournament semifinals by capturing a 72-49 win over Missouri on Friday after at the Ga. Dome. UF cashed tickets as an 11.5-point favorite, while the 121 combined points stayed 'under' the 132-point total.

Michael Frazier II and Scottie Wilbekin buried five 3-pointers apiece to pace the Gators, who have won 24 consecutive games and haven't tasted defeat since a Dec. 2 loss at UConn on a buzzer beater from Shabazz Napier.

Tennessee (21-11 SU, 18-12 ATS) will be the SEC's third team in the NCAA Tournament thanks to a late-season surge that has the Volunteers looking dangerous. UT will get a third crack at top-ranked Florida after thumping South Carolina 59-44 as a 12.5-point 'chalk.'

Jarnell Stokes was the catalyst against the Gamecocks, producing his 19th double-double of the year by scoring 22 points and pulling down 15 rebounds. Jordan McRae pitched in with 14 points.

How hot are the Vols? They have won five in a row and haven't trailed for 200 consecutive minutes going back to an overtime loss to Texas A&M on Feb. 22.

As of late Friday night, most books had Florida installed as a five-point favorite.

Billy Donovan's squad has won 24 consecutive games, including a pair of wins over Tennessee. In the first meeting at the O-Dome in Gainesville, the Gators blasted UT by a 67-41 count as an 8.5-point home favorite.

Frazier was one of four UF players in double figures with a game-high 17 points. McRae was an atrocious 1-of-15 from the field.

In the rematch at Thompson-Boling Arena, Wilbekin scored 21 points, made four steals and dished out six assists without committing a turnover. The SEC Player of the Year led UF to a 67-58 win as a two-point r oad 'chalk.'

ABC will provide the UF-UT broadcast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- T.J. Warren scored 28 points, including a pair of clutch free throws in the final minute, to help North Carolina State send Syracuse packing from its debut appearance in the ACC Tournament. The 66-63 win was the 21st for the Wolfpack, who suddenly have a pulse in terms of a possible NCAA berth via the at-large route. Mark Gottfried's team won outright as a nine-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a +400 payout (paid $400 on $100 wagers).

-- South Florida pulled the plug on Stan Heath's six-year tenure by dismissing him as head coach on Friday afternoon. Heath took the Bulls to one NCAA Tournament and one NIT. His overall record was 97-128 and USF finished 12-19 this season. Heath spent the five previous years as head coach at Arkansas. He produced just one NCAA Tournament win -- the only NCAA Tourney 'W' for the Razorbacks since it fired Nolan Richardson -- in those 11 campaigns.

-- I was of the opinion that BYU was 'in' the NCAA field after losing to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament finals in Las Vegas earlier this week. However, with one of its best players in Kyle Collinsworth done for the season with an ACL tear sustained against the Bulldogs, I'm not so sure. Collinsworth averaged 14.0 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game.

-- Ben Brust scored a game-high 29 points to spark Wisconsin to an easy 83-57 win over Minnesota as a five-point favorite. The victory was the 700th in the illustrious career of Bo Ryan, one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball history.

-- It's been nearly a quarter-century since Loyola Marymount's stallion of a power forward Hank Gathers collapsed during the 1990 WCC Tournament and was pronounced dead less than an hour later. On Friday afternoon in Brooklyn, Gathers's nephew, Jordan, drained a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to propel St. Bonaventure to a stunning 71-68 win over Saint Louis. The Billikens will go into the NCAA Tournament having lost four of their last five games. The Bonnies took the victory as 6.5-point 'dogs.

-- Despite trailing by 18 points early in the second half, Ohio St. rallied to knock off Nebraska by a 71-67 count. Nevertheless, bettors backing the Cornhuskers cashed a winner because they closed as six-point underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

As of Friday Night:

MARCH TOTALS:

50- 69 - 4.....................SINGLE PLAYS

29 - 29 - 1............................DOUBLE PLAYS

28 - 17 - 1.............................TRIPLE PLAYS

2- 1 ...........................CONFERENCE GOY

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- ACC tournament will be played in Brooklyn in 2017/2018, which does not seem right, but that was probably part of Syracuse joining the league, to get the tournament up north now and then.

-- BYU's Kyle Collinsworth tore his ACL in Cougars' last game at Orleans Arena; that could knock BYU off the bubble Sunday.

-- Cal Poly-Northridge final in Big West features #5-7 seeds in conference; bottom of part of this year's Field of 68 is going to be very weak. .

-- Nevada Wolf Pack got a technical foul Wednesday night for not having a player listed in their scorebook; how does that happen at that level?

-- There are ten D-I basketball teams in Indiana; none of them will be in the NCAA tournament, which doesn't happen very much.

-- Cal-Irvine has a 7-6 center named Mamadou Ndiaye; English is his fourth language. Knowing four languages is pretty impressive.

*****

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Wrapping up a day of basketball.....

13) Game of the Year: Arkansas State 116, Ark-Little Rock 114, 4 OTs
I don't care what league it is in, whether Jay Bilas announced the game, or if anyone besides me watched on TV, but when a conference tourney semifinal goes four overtimes, this is my Game of the Year.

Ed Townsel of Arkansas State played all 60 minutes, scoring 32 points; he was averaging 9.2 ppg coming into the game. ASU was down six with 1:20 to play in regulation. Hell of a win for them.

12) Pitt 80, North Carolina 75-- Tar Heels were 11-7 at one point, then won 12 in a row, have now lost two in row heading into the NCAAs. Very difficult team to figure- they just don't shoot the ball consistently well.

11) Duke 63, Clemson 62-- Tigers have been the Washington Generals of the ACC tournament; they've never won it, as in.....never. They had Duke by the throat in this game, but let them slip away in the last 0:05. Bitter loss.

10) St Bonaventure 71, Saint Louis 68-- Earlier this season, some paper or magazine did a study and found Bonnies' coach Mark Schmidt gave his school the most bang for what they paid him, as in wins per dollar. Bonnies KO'd #1 seed Billikens here-- very rough week for the top-seeded teams.

9) St Joe's 70, Dayton 67-- If you believe bracketologists, this was pretty much a play-in game, and the shorthanded Hawks pulled it out. Martelli had his two subs on the floor Friday for a total of 12 minutes.

8) Iowa State 94, Kansas 83-- Jayhawks ain't winning the NCAAs without a healthy Joel Embiid; they allowed 92+ points in two of last thee games.

7) Baylor 86, Texas 69-- Scott Drew's Bears have won 10 of last 11 games to jump into the field of 68. I've read/heard stuff in media about Drew not being a very good coach, just a recruiter; well, they were 14-9, 2-8 in league, and now they're 24-10, 12-9, in the country's best league. Good coaching.

6) San Diego State 59, UNLV 51-- CBS Sports Network's analysts ripped the UNLV guards, unusual for TV guys to openly rip players' abilities. You get the feeling if these teams played 20 times, San Diego State would never lose- they're a decent amount better and both sides know it.

Aztecs-Lobos at 6:00 today will be an excellent game.

5) Georgia 75, Ole Miss 73-- Rebels were 2-25 from the arc, lost by two.

4) While UConn-Cincinnati were beating each other up, Louisville crushed Houston by 29; don't think the AAC will be sad to see the Cardinals leave.

3) Michigan 64, Illinois 63-- Kid on Illini missed a 7-foot runner that would have won the game. Illinois will be a tough out in the NIT.

2) Upset of the Day: NC State (+8.5) 66-63 over Syracuse.

Both Big West underdogs won SU, getting seven points each.

1) Bad Beat of the Day: Akron (-2) vs Western Michigan-- Zips were up 17 at the half, but went scoreless for 8:18 in second half, as Western went on an enormous 18-0 run that forced this game to OT, where Broncos won.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

First Post

Ohio State vs. Michigan
The Buckeyes slipped past Nebraska yesterday to advance to the Big Ten semifinals against a Michigan team that beat Illinois at the buzzer and is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU victory. Ohio State is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+3). Here are all of today's early games.

SATURDAY, MARCH 15

Game 515-516: Pittsburgh vs. Virginia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 69.670; Virginia 70.686
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Virginia by 3 1/2; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Under

Game 519-520: Tennessee vs. Florida (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 69.291; Florida 77.759
Dunkel Line: Florida by 8 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Florida by 6; 125
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-6); Over

Game 523-524: St. Bonaventure vs. St. Joseph's (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 61.577; St. Joseph's 61.749
Dunkel Line: Even; 138
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 3; 143
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+3); Under

Game 527-528: Ohio State vs. Michigan (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 670.583; Michigan 70.486
Dunkel Line: Even; 134
Vegas Line: Michigan by 3; 129
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+3); Over

Game 561-562: Albany at Stony Brook (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 53.320; Stony Brook 54.113
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 1
Vegas Line: Stony Brook by 7
Dunkel Pick: Albany (+7)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 15

First Post

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TULSA (20 - 12) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (27 - 6) - 3/15/2014, 11:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (25 - 8) vs. VIRGINIA (26 - 6) - 3/15/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
VIRGINIA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) on Saturday games this season.
VIRGINIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
VIRGINIA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in tournament semi-final games since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NC STATE (21 - 12) vs. DUKE (25 - 7) - 3/15/2014, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 2-2 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 3-1 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (21 - 11) vs. FLORIDA (30 - 2) - 3/15/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 101-68 ATS (+26.2 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST BONAVENTURE (17 - 14) vs. ST JOSEPHS (21 - 9) - 3/15/2014, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST JOSEPHS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST BONAVENTURE is 3-1 against the spread versus ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
ST BONAVENTURE is 3-1 straight up against ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OHIO ST (24 - 8) vs. MICHIGAN (23 - 7) - 3/15/2014, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.
OHIO ST is 216-167 ATS (+32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OHIO ST is 137-104 ATS (+22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 4-2 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 3-3 straight up against OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA-LAFAYETTE (21 - 11) vs. W KENTUCKY (20 - 11) - 3/15/2014, 5:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W KENTUCKY is 4-1 against the spread versus LA-LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
W KENTUCKY is 4-1 straight up against LA-LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW MEXICO (26 - 6) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (29 - 3) - 3/15/2014, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 6-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 5-3 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CONNECTICUT (26 - 7) vs. LOUISVILLE (28 - 5) - 3/15/2014, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 4-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TOLEDO (27 - 5) vs. W MICHIGAN (22 - 9) - 3/15/2014, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 4-2 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 4-2 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ALBANY (17 - 14) at STONY BROOK (23 - 9) - 3/15/2014, 11:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
ALBANY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ALBANY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ALBANY is 2-0 against the spread versus STONY BROOK over the last 3 seasons
STONY BROOK is 6-2 straight up against ALBANY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (11 - 21) vs. TEXAS SOUTHERN (18 - 15) - 3/15/2014, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS SOUTHERN is 4-2 straight up against PRAIRIE VIEW A&M over the last 3 seasons

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MORGAN ST (15 - 15) vs. NC CENTRAL (27 - 5) - 3/15/2014, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NC CENTRAL is 2-1 straight up against MORGAN ST over the last 3 seasons

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SAM HOUSTON ST (23 - 9) vs. SF AUSTIN ST (30 - 2) - 3/15/2014, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SF AUSTIN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SAM HOUSTON ST over the last 3 seasons
SF AUSTIN ST is 7-0 straight up against SAM HOUSTON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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IDAHO (16 - 17) vs. NEW MEXICO ST (25 - 9) - 3/15/2014, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 4-3 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO ST is 5-2 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 15

First Post

C-USA tournament (El Paso)
10:30 am local time tip off without the home team; small crowd. Tulsa (+9.5) lost 66-61 at Louisiana Tech Feb 6; Bulldogs outscored them 25-9 over last 6:53 of game, but Golden Hurricane hasn't lost since, winning ten games in row, only three of which were at home. Tech won last six in a row- they sat injured star Appleby yesterday, hoping they can get 10 or 15 minutes out of him, like they did in Thursday's win over Charlotte.

ACC tournament (Greensboro)
Virginia (+4.5) won 48-45 at Pitt Super Sunday, in brickfest that never saw either team lead by more than four points. Cavaliers won 14 of last 15 games; they used three starters 31+ minutes Friday, played three of their subs 14-19-26 minutes. Pitt was dismal 21-41 from foul line in win over North Carolina, or margin would've been lot more than five. Zanna was dominant inside, with 19 points, 21 rebounds before fouling out.

SEC tournament (Atlanta)
Florida beat Tennessee twice this season, 67-41 (-8.5) at home, then by nine (67-58, -2) in rematch Feb 11. Gators haven't lost since UConn beat them by a point Dec 2- they held Missouri to 1-13 from arc Friday- as they made 12-21 themselves, outscoring Tigers 43-20 in second half of game that was tied at half. Tennessee won its last five games, holding its last four opponents to 45.3 ppg. Only two Vols played 30:00+ Friday.

Big Dozen tournament (Indianapolis)
Michigan/Ohio State both survived tough games Friday; Wolverines had three starters play 37+ minutes, Buckeyes had two play 34+. Michigan (+3.5) won 70-60 in Columbus Feb 11, in only series meeting this year; Buckeyes shot 63% inside arc, 3-20 outside it. Wolverines won six in a row, 18 of last 21 games; three of their last five wins were by 4 points or less, or in OT. OSU won its last three games by total of eight points.

I'll post rest of my writeups after I get some sleep.........

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 15

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ACC Tournament betting cheat sheet: Round 4
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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (+3.5)

The Cavaliers showed why they lead the nation in scoring defense and won the league’s regular-season title, getting a workmanlike 64-51 victory over Florida State on Friday. It took the Cavaliers a little time to get going against Florida State, but their tireless defense forced 15 turnovers overall and allowed only 38.5 percent shooting in the second half.

Virginia will be tested by the Panthers, who have averaged 82 points in its first two ACC tournament games. The Panthers must correct issues that led to almost blowing a 20-point lead against North Carolina and will look for leading scorer Lamar Patterson to play more like his 24-point effort in the second round than his 12-point, six-turnover outing Friday.

TRENDS:

*Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
*Cavaliers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall
*Over is 38-16 in Panthers last 54 games following a S.U. win
*Under is 9-4 in Cavaliers last 13 vs. ACC


North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina State has put together two victories so far in the ACC tournament to bolster its chances of reaching the NCAA tournament, and the seventh-seeded Wolfpack are two wins away from an improbable conference championship. T.J. Warren will need help on offense to give the Wolfpack a shot at the upset, but the all-ACC first-team honoree is averaging 28.9 points in his past seven games.

The Blue Devils dominated the only meeting between the two teams this season, 95-60, as Parker scored 23 and Duke scored 33 points off 21 North Carolina State turnovers. Duke hit 39.3 percent of its 3-point attempts in the regular season, but went 3-for-13 from long range in the quarterfinals.

TRENDS:

*Wolfpack are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games
*Blue Devils are 1-4-1 in their last 6 vs. ACC
*Over is 13-3 in Wolfpack last 16 overall
*Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 15

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SEC Tournament betting cheat sheet: Round 4
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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators (-6)

Tennessee, still regarded as an NCAA Tournament bubble team in some projections, defeated No. 13 seed South Carolina, 59-44, in its quarterfinal contest. The Volunteers bring a five-game winning streak into the contest and haven't trailed in their last 200 minutes of game time action.

The regular-season champion Gators have won a school-record 24 straight games including a 72-49 victory over Missouri in Friday's quarterfinals. The Gators have won their last four games by an average of 21 points.

TRENDS:

*Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC
*Gators are 4-1 ATS in last 5 games following an ATS win
*Under is 43-19-1 in Volunteers last 63 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings


Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Kentucky looks to advance to the final of the SEC tournament for the fourth time in the last five years when it faces Georgia on Saturday in Atlanta. The second-seeded Wildcats are coming off an impressive 85-67 victory over LSU.James Young scored 17 of his game-high 21 points in the first half to go along with six rebounds, four assists and two steals against LSU. Julius Randle, who was named the SEC Freshman of the Year by the league's coaches earlier in the week, recorded his 19th double-double of the season with 17 points and 16 rebounds versus the Tigers.

Georgia squeaked by Mississippi 75-73 in the quarterfinals and now looks to avenge a 79-54 setback to the Wildcats on Jan. 25.Charles Mann led the way with 16 points, including the go-ahead basket with 17 seconds left, in the win over Ole Miss. Marcus Thornton pulled down a game-high 11 rebounds and hit some clutch free throws down the stretch versus the Rebels.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 vs. SEC
*Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a S.U. win
*Under 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26
*Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 15

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Big Ten Tournament betting cheat sheet: Day 3
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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)

The fifth-seeded Buckeyes, who dropped a 70-60 decision at home to the Wolverines in their only meeting this season, overcame an 18-point second-half deficit against Nebraska to secure their 20th victory over their last 24 contests at this event.

On Saturday, the arch-rivals face off in the semifinals in Indianapolis after the Wolverines blew a 13-point second-half lead Friday to Illinois only to rally against a Illini team they defeated by 31 points 10 days earlier. Jordan Morgan hit the go-ahead basket with 7.9 seconds left to give Michigan a 64-63 win.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Wolverines last six vs. Big Ten.


Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Michigan State closed the season with losses in seven of its final 12 games, but enjoyed its largest margin of victory since mid-January in Friday’s 67-51 quarterfinal victory over Northwestern. Branden Dawson told Michigan Live that assistant coach Mike Garland texted him before Friday’s game and simply said, ‘We need more.’ and he responded with an 8-of-12 effort from the field, 16 points and nine rebounds in his best performance in four games since the previous nine with a hand injury.

Wisconsin proved it was past its midseason lull when it handed Michigan State a heartbreaking two-point setback on Feb. 9. The Badgers’ victory that day was their second during an eight-game winning streak that followed a stretch in which they dropped five of the previous six. The Badgers turned in one of their most complete efforts of the season in Friday’s 83-57 rout, shooting 64 percent in the second half en route to posting their highest point total since a 95-point outburst against Illinois on Jan. 8. Wisconsin also held Minnesota to its worst field-goal percentage effort of the season (32.8).

TRENDS:

*Spartans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall
*Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U win
*Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings
*Spartans are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings

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Big Ten Semifinals

March 15, 2014


This year’s Big Ten Tournament is down to its final four teams and for the most part things have gone chalk with three of the top four seeds advancing to Saturday’s semifinals. Ohio State is the fifth seed, but it was actually favored in its win over No. 5 Nebraska so the Buckeyes will now move on to face No. 1 Michigan in a 1:40 p.m. tip. Following that game, No. 3 Michigan State will lock horns with No. 2 Wisconsin for the other spot in Sunday’s Big Ten Championship.

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (CBS, 1:40 p.m.)

The one thing you can say about the Buckeyes is that they love to make their games entertaining but they are not necessarily good for the feint of heat. After squeezing-out a tight 63-61 victory against No. 12 seeded Purdue on Thursday as 10-point favorites, they had to find a way to erase an 18-point deficit in Friday’s thrilling 71-67 win over the Cornhuskers as 5 ½-point favorites on the closing line. While Ohio State has found ways to stay alive for this year’s Big Ten Tournament title, it has now failed to cover in its last five games. The total has gone OVER in three of its last four contests.

The big hero of Friday’s miraculous comeback was LaQuinton Ross. He led the way with a career-high 26 points and 13 rebounds while shooting 9-for-18 from the field. This was after he tallied 19 points and a career-high 15 rebounds in the win over Purdue. After averaging 15.3 points and 6.1 rebounds during the regular season (both team highs), you would have to consider him a prime candidate for tournament MVP should the Buckeyes go on to win it all.

Ohio State has failed to cover in its last six games played at a neutral site and it is 0-4 in its last four games following a loss against the spread. The total went OVER the 124-point closing line against Nebraska and it has now gone OVER in five of its last seven neutral-site games.

The Wolverines enjoyed a bye for the opening round of this week’s tournament which could have actually worked against their favor after sweating-out a 64-63 victory over No. 9 seed Illinois as 7 ½-point favorites in Friday’s quarterfinals. They built a five point lead at the half, but the pesky Illini would not go down quietly. Jordan Morgan came up with a clutch layup with less than eight seconds on the clock to help seal the win. The pressure will only get dialed-up higher on Saturday considering that Michigan has not won more than one game in this tournament since 1998.

If they are going to have any shot at ending this dubious streak the Wolverines will need another big day from Nik Stauskas. He led the way against Illinois with 19 points while going 9-for-10 from the foul line. Glen Robinson III added 15 points and seven rebounds and even though Michigan shot 44.7 percent from the field it was able to convert on 80 percent of its attempts from the free-throw line.

The Wolverines are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win and they have fallen to 0-3-1 ATS in their last four neutral-site games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games.

These two only met once this season with Michigan cruising to a 70-60 victory on Feb. 11 as a 3 ½-point road favorite. Ohio State still has the 7-3 SU edge in the last 10 meetings and it is 3-1 ATS in the last four contests. The total went OVER the 128 ½-point closing line in that earlier meeting and it has gone OVER in three of the last four games between the two. The Wolverines have been opened as slight 2 ½-point favorites for Saturday’s contest and the total has been set at 129.

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers (CBS, 4 p.m.)

Michigan State dropped three of its last five games, but an overall 12-6 SU record in conference play was still good enough to secure the three seed for this tournament. The Spartans caught a break with Northwestern’s stunning upset of Iowa on Thursday and took full advantage by hammering the Wildcats 67-51 on Friday as 14 ½-point favorites to advance to this round. They have now covered in their last three games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six outings.

Branden Dawson led Michigan State with 16 points and nine rebounds in Friday’s win and Gary Harris added 13 points and seven boards to the winning cause. Travis Trice came off the bench to nail three of his seven attempts from 3-point range. Harris has been the team’s leading scorer all season long with 17.3 points and Dawson is pulling down a team-high 8.4 rebounds. Keith Appling is Michigan State’s leader in assists (4.7) but he was held to two in Friday’s win.

The Spartans improved to 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 neutral-site games.

Wisconsin was stunned by Nebraska 77-68 as a three-point road favorite in its regular season finale to snap a SU winning streak of eight games. Fortunately it showed no lingering side effects from that loss in Friday’s 83-57 dismantling of Minnesota as a five-point favorite. The total in that game went OVER the closing 134.5-point line and the Badgers covered for the first time in their last four contests.

Ben Brust is averaging 12.9 points per game this season but he blew that number away with a career-high 29 points against the Golden Gophers. He went 8-for-15 from the field and 4-for-10 from 3-point range. Nigel Hayes, who was named the Big Ten’s Sixth Man of the Year, scored 15 points off the bench and the team, as a whole, shot an impressive 54.5 percent from the field. On the year, Wisconsin is averaging 73.5 PPG and shooting 45.8 percent from the field.

The Badgers have now covered in their last four neutral-site games, but they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games played at a neutral site.

Head-to-head in this matchup, Michigan State’s five-game SU winning streak came to an end in a 60-58 loss to the Badgers on Feb. 9. The Spartans still covered as four-point road underdogs and they have now covered in the last six meetings. The total stayed UNDER the 133 ½-point line in that game and it has now stayed UNDER in the last four meetings.

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Bracketology Update

March 14, 2014


2014 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on 03/13/14

As we continue with Championship Week here is the way we see things shaping up. We will use this last breakdown moving forward: Teams bolded and underlined are LOCKS; “ * “ indicates a certain one bid league; new non-major conference champions will come with quick description about their resume; bubble is discussed only at bottom of entry.

*America East: Stony Brook

American Athletic: Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis

Atlantic Ten: UMass, VCU, St. Louis, George Washington

ACC: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

*Atlantic Sun: Mercer

Big 12:Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State

Big East: Villanova, Creighton, Xavier

*Big Sky: Weber State

*Big South: Coastal Carolina

Big Ten: Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa

*Big West: UC-Irvine

*Colonial: Delaware

*Conference USA: Southern Mississippi

*Horizon: MILWAUKEE - The Panthers put together quite the run in the Horizon League Tournament including knocking off the 1, 3 & 4 seeds to seal their bid. UWM ranked 2nd to last in adjusted SBPI in the Horizon league, good for #181 in the country – one of the lower ranks that will be in the field. Their most noteworthy action in OOC play was a 26 pt loss at Wisconsin and an 11 pt home win over Northern Iowa – not exactly impressive. With an RPI hovering close to #140 the Panthers will be on the 15 line most likely.

*Ivy: Harvard

*MAAC: Manhattan

*MAC: Toledo

*MEAC: North Carolina Central

*Missouri Valley: Wichita State

Mountain West: San Diego State, New Mexico

*Northeast: MOUNT ST. MARYS - The Mountaineers shocked the Robert Morris Colonials on Tuesday evening to seal the NEC automatic bid. In the SBPI those two teams were nearly identical, with just a 0.1 difference in power rating; MTSTM’s adjusted ranking is #205, which will be amongst the worst in the field. Before their win over RPI #121 Robert Morris to earn the title their only prior Top 150 win on the season was against #142 American University by 4 points in late November. Expect the Mount to earn a 16 seed, potentially taking part in the opening round action in Dayton.

*Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky

Pac 12: Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford

*Patriot: AMERICAN - American shocked BU on their home-court to earn the Patriot League’s automatic bid. The only Top 150 wins the Eagles have all season are twice over BU & three wins over Holy Cross; they played a road game in OOC play against one NCAA tourney team (Ohio State) and lost by 11. AU ranked 5th in the Patriot in SBPI, #233 in the country in adjusted SBPI – one of the worst ratings of likely tourney teams. The Eagles will be either a 15 or likely 16 seed.

SEC: Florida, Kentucky

*Southern: Wofford

*Southland: Stephen F. Austin

*SWAC: Texas Southern

*Summit: NORTH DAKOTA STATE: the Bison took care of business and earned the Summit’s automatic bid, and with their high RPI of #36 could be in line for a 12 or 13 seed. In the SBPI NDST rates #41 on a non-adjusted basis, and #84 adjusted for SOS, which is pretty strong for a non-major conference team – they are slotted just above NCST, Seton Hall, UNLV and Missouri to name a few. NDST did beat CAA champ Delaware but lost to CUSA favorite Southern Mississippi at home by 1, and at Ohio State by 17.

*Sun Belt: Georgia State

West Coast: Gonzaga, BYU

*WAC: New Mexico State

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS & LOCKS: 61

Currently I project 61 of the 68 bids are earned (Xavier, Colorado & Stanford added).

We currently have 10 teams that are in the mix for 7 open bids (St. Johns, Georgetown, Arkansas, California removed).

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

I believe there are 10 bubble teams and I've made comments on them below:

St. Joseph’s (PA) & Dayton: I give SJU the edge over Dayton right now based on their sweep of the regular season series. The winner of today’s A10 QF between the two is locked into the field; the loser still has a chance.

Nebraska: a win over Ohio State today seals their bid.

Tennessee: a win over South Carolina gets them very close to locking in their status, but because it’s the Gamecocks that is the kind of game that can really only hurt their resume sadly.

SMU: season is done, they are just hanging onto one of last few spots. With all the media hype they have received this season they will likely earn a bid, but a lot of their metrics just do not stack up.

Arizona State: the Sun Devils got blown out last night against Stanford not helping their cause a ton. As of this moment they are in the field, but feel they are likely to fall back out with some teams just below them still playing, and bid stealing opportunities still alive & likely.

Florida State: a win over Virginia today and they are in the field; a loss & they likely come up just short.

Minnesota: the Gophers need a win today over Wisconsin to seal their spot; a loss & it’s likely another late season fold will cost Minny their spot.

Missouri: needs to beat Florida today to remain in the hunt.

Providence: the last team on the bubble in the Big East playing Seton Hall tonight will not help a ton, but it’s a must win. With a win there, and good showing in BET Final (even with a loss) they could sneak into the Field with some help.

Multiple bid conferences (total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):

B12 (7)
P12 (6): California removed
B10 (6): Minnesota removed
ACC (6): Florida State added
A10 (6): St. Joseph’s & Dayton added
AAC (5)
SEC (3): Arkansas removed
BE (3)
WCC (2)
MWC (2)

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Early Tipoff's:

Saturday, March 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Albany - 11:30 AM ET Albany +6.5 500 *****
Stony Brook -

Tulsa - 11:35 AM ET Tulsa +3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Louisiana Tech -