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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 7 - Monday, November 11)

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  • #31
    NFL

    Monday, November 11


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    Monday Night Football betting: Dolphins at Buccaneers
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    Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 41)

    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the NFL's poster boys for Team Discord for much of the season, but the Miami Dolphins have seized that mantle in the midst of an explosive soap opera developing in South Beach. The Dolphins will try to overcome a highly publicized rift by offensive linemen Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin when they visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. “The whole thing is kind of mind-blowing to me," Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill said.

    The Dolphins will have 10 days between games since a stunning 22-20 overtime victory against Cincinnati that snapped a four-game losing streak, but new developments continue to emerge in the ongoing saga in which Martin left the team after accusing Incognito of repeated bullying. Tampa Bay is dealing with another gut-wrenching loss, blowing a 21-point lead in Seattle last week. Coach Greg Schiano has been on the hot seat amid reports that several players are unhappy with his demanding style

    TV:
    8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

    LINE:
    Tampa Bay opened at +3.5 home dogs, but have been bet up to +1. The total has move up slightly from 40.5 to 41.

    WEATHER:
    Temperature will be in the mid 70s with a 7 percent chance of rain.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Miami (+3.0) - Tampa Bay (7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -1

    ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-4):
    Incognito has been suspended and Martin is on leave while the league goes forward with an investigation, leaving the players to deal with the fallout while attempting to stay in the postseason hunt. The most pressing on-field question for Miami is how to overcome the loss of 40 percent of an offensive line that has already allowed Tannehill to be a sacked a league-high 35 times. The Dolphins may have salvaged their season by rallying to beat Cincinnati after blowing a 14-point second-half lead for the second consecutive week. Running back Lamar Miller is coming off his first 100-yard day for Miami, which is averaging 156.5 yards rushing in the past two games.

    ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-8):
    Tampa Bay's 27-24 overtime loss in Seattle was its fourth defeat by three or fewer points this season, prompting Schiano to say his squad did a lot of "things we can build off." Running back Doug Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards as a rookie last season, has been sidelined with a torn labrum since Oct. 20 and could be headed to injured reserve. Rookie Mike James has been a capable replacement, running for a career-high 158 yards in last week's loss while rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has thrown five touchdown passes and zero interceptions over his past three games.

    TRENDS:

    * Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in thier last four Monday night games.
    * Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
    * Under is 5-1-1 in Dolphins last seven games overall.
    * Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four games following a straight up loss.

    EXTRA POINTS

    1. Dolphins DE Cameron Wake had three sacks against the Bengals, including a game-winning safety in OT.

    2. The Buccaneers rank 31st in scoring (15.5 points) and total offense (304.3 yards) per game.

    3. Miami hasn't won in Tampa Bay since October 1988.


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    • #32
      NFL

      Monday, November 11


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      Tale of the Tape: Dolphins at Buccaneers
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      Football fans will be treated to an all-Florida battle as the Miami Dolphins visit the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this week's Monday nighter.

      The Dolphins come into this one fresh off a 22-20 overtime win over the Cincinnati Bengals that halted a four-game losing skid and vaulted Miami back to the .500 mark for the season. Things are decidedly more dire in Tampa, where the Buccaneers find themselves the lone winless team left in the NFL.

      Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

      Offense

      Between quarterback Ryan Tannehill gaining a year of experience and the addition of wide receiver Mike Wallace, the Dolphins had high hopes for their offense coming into the season. So far, those expectations have not been met - Miami is generating just 315.3 total yards per game - among the worst averages in the league - and has produced only 11 passing touchdowns. The running game has improved in recent weeks, but still averages just 97.6 yards per contest.

      Tampa Bay's pass attack has been one of the most anemic in the NFL no matter who has been at the helm. Josh Freeman's early-season struggles, combined with Mike Glennon's relative inexperience, have resulted in the Buccaneers averaging just 197 yards through the air - one of only three teams entering Week 10 to sit below the 200 mark. The running game has been equally inept, producing 107.5 yards per outing but registering just one touchdown so far.

      Edge: Miami


      Defense


      The Dolphins have bent but not broken when it comes to pass defense. Miami is surrendering 252 yards through the air per game - putting it in the middle of the pack - but has allowed just nine touchdowns while racking up 11 interceptions. The Dolphins haven't been nearly as effective in run defense, ranked in the bottom third of the league in yards allowed per game (116.5) while allowing nine rushing touchdowns and recovering just a pair of fumbles.

      Despite having lost eight straight games to open the season the Buccaneers' pass defense actually hasn't been that bad. Tampa Bay is in the top third in fewest passing yards surrendered (241 per game) but has given up 15 touchdowns while snagging just eight interceptions. The run defense has also been respectable so far in 2013, limiting opponents to 107.5 yards per game and four yards per carry while giving up just four scores all season.

      Edge: Tampa Bay


      Special Teams


      Miami's kick-return unit has been solid to date - averaging 25.2 yards per attempt - but the punt-return game has managed just 62 total yards on 12 chances. The Dolphins are surrendering 24.2 yards per kick return opportunity while holding foes to 8.8 yards per punt return. Rookie placekicker Caleb Sturgis has had an up-and-down season, connecting on just 13-of-18 field-goal attempts - including a 2-for-3 showing in last week's win over the Bengals.

      Tampa Bay's return game has been another bright spot despite the winless stretch, averaging a robust 25.8 yards per kickoff return and 8.6 yards per punt return. Opponents are averaging a paltry 21.1 yards per kickoff return attempt versus the Buccaneers, but have an 11.2-yard average on punt returns. Kicker Rian Lindell hasn't been busy, but has been solid when called upon, making 11-of-13 field-goal opportunities.

      Edge: Tampa Bay


      Notable Quotable


      "We're definitely not beleaguered. At this point in the season we have eight winnable games ahead of us and we could have a very good second half of the season. We're definitely not focusing on the circus you guys have made in our locker room." - Dolphins OL Tyson Clabo, addressing the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin controversy

      "I'm 0-8. That's enough on my back. On Monday, when everybody lines up, distractions go out the window ... that's just the way it is. Nobody cares about your problems when you get out there on that field." - Buccaneers OL Donald Penn when asked about the controversy surrounding the Dolphins



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