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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 10
Jaguars (0-8) @ Titans (4-4)—First road game in four weeks for hideous Jags, who lost star WR Blackmon (drugs) for season, as their year from hell continues; Jax is 1-7 vs spread this year, with only cover as 27-point dogs in Denver- their road losses are by 10-28-14-16 points. 19-9 loss at Oakland in Week 2 is their only loss this year by less than 14 points, as they make run at being worst NFL team of all-time. Tennessee snapped 3-game skid last week in St Louis, running ball for 198 yards against host playing on short week with backup QB; Titans lost last two home games, after winning first two by 3-25 points- they’re 1-0-1 as home faves, but are -3 in turnovers in last four games, after being +9 in first four. Tennessee is 8-5 in last 13 series games, with three of last four decided by 6 or less points. Jags lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-17-6-18 points. NFL-wide, home favorites are 17-9 vs spread in divisional games; double digit favorites are 8-10 vs spread this season. Three of last four Jax games, four of last five Titan games went over the total.
Eagles (4-5) @ Packers (5-3)—On one ill-fated play at end of its first drive Monday nite, Packers went from one of NFC’s favorites to an underdog to make playoffs; with Rodgers out at least three weeks (hairline fracture/clavicle), Pack has no decent backup (expected to sign Flynn Tuesday). One Vegas pundit said spread would drop 8 points with Rodgers out, one of biggest drops with any injury in NFL. Green Bay becomes a running team while Eagles are feast/famine offense; in their last five games, Philly scored 36-31-3-7-49 points, and they didn’t even try to score in 4th quarter at Oakland. Pack allowed 27+ points in all three of its losses; they’re 4-0 when allowing 20 or less points. Preparing a career backup to start and getting a new backup for him in place on short work week is tough duty. Eagle defense has played better of late; inflated numbers last week were partially because of big lead they had. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread, 2-6-1 at home; NFC East road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five Packer games stayed under total; six of nine Eagle games went over.
Bills (3-6) @ Steelers (2-6)—Would expect stronger effort from Pitt after CBS’ Phil Simms inferred they quit in 4th quarter at Foxboro (they did). Buffalo is expected to get #1 QB Manuel back here; they were 2-2 in his starts, losing 27-20 at Jets in his only road start (outgained 513-328)- remember, he is a rookie. Steelers are 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, a number Bills had hit every week until 23-13 home loss to unbeaten Chiefs last week, when they held KC without offensive TD but gave up two scores Chiefs’ defense. Buffalo outgained KC 470-210 but lost by 10 in first NFL start for undrafted rookie QB Tuel, Bills’ #3 QB. After being -11 in turnovers in first four games, Pitt was even in last four; Bills are -6 in last two games. Steelers won eight of last nine games in this series; Bills lost nine of last 11 visits here, losing 26-3 in ’07 in only visit since ’96. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-6 vs spread, 3-2 at home. AFC East road underdogs are 2-6 vs spread. Six of last eight Buffalo games went over total; three of last four Steeler games stayed under.
Raiders (3-5) @ Giants (2-6)—First road game in five weeks for Oakland squad that was torched by Eagles’ Foles last week (7 TD passes in less than three Q’s); if Foles did that much damage vs Raider defense, what will Manning do off bye week? Giants won last five post-bye games (3-2 vs spread); they won last two games before their bye, holding Freeman/Foles to one offensive TDs on 23 drives after starting season 0-6. Raiders are 0-3 away from home, losing by 4-16-17 points, but those three opponents are combined 22-3 this year. Giants gave up 77 points in losing first two home games (Denver/Philly) before shutting down Vikings 23-7; they won last two series meetings 30-21/44-7; Raiders are 3-2 playing Giants in Swamp. Oakland QB Pryor tweaked his knee last week, isn’t thought to be serious injury, but if it were, major dropoff to backup McGloin. AFC West teams are 16-9 vs spread outside their division, 6-2 as underdogs, 3-1 on road. NFC East favorites are 6-6, 4-4 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in Oakland games this season, 4-2 in Giants’ last six games.
Rams (3-6) @ Colts (6-2)—St Louis has seldom gone in tank in first 25 games under Fisher, but with career backup Clemens at QB, they’re not capable of beating good teams. Rams lost last three games by 15-5-7 points; they’re 1-3 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 7-24-15 points, with win at struggling Houston. Colts are 3-1 at home, scoring 73 points in last two home tilts, upset wins over Seattle/Denver- underdogs covered all four of their home games (0-2 as HF). Indy is in second game off its bye; Rams haven’t had theirs yet- Colts looked lost in passing game in first half in Houston last week (Luck was 6-20 at one point), as star WR Wayne missed his first game since 2001, but they rallied late and escaped Texas with a win. Fisher was 3-13 in last 16 games vs Colts when he was coaching the Titans. NFC West teams are 13-9 vs spread outside the division, 5-5 as underdogs, 3-4 on road. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 6-4, 3-2 when favored. Double digit dogs are 10-8 vs spread, league-wide. Five of last six St Louis games, three of last four Indy games went over the total.
Seahawks (8-1) @ Falcons (2-6)—Seattle barely escaped Rams/Bucs last two weeks, falling behind Tampa 21-0 at home last week; those are only two teams Atlanta has beaten this year (combined 3-14 record). Seahawks are 4-1 on road, with two wins by 5 and another by three points- they lost last four games with Atlanta, losing 30-28 in LY’s playoffs, which seem like long time ago now. Average total in last four series games is 63.3. Seahawks are 4-3 in Atlanta, but lost last two visits here by combined total of five points. Falcons lost five of last six games- they allowed 27+ points in last five losses and are -7 in turnovers last five games, throwing seven picks in last two. OL is banged up, so running ball is an issue (49 ypg in last five games) and with star WR Jones gone for year, Atlanta scored only two TDs on its last 22 drives, with nine 3/outs. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-4 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC South underdogs are 4-6, 1-2 at home. Six of last seven Falcon games, five of last seven Seattle games went over the total. This is Seattle’s fifth dome game out of six road games.
Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (3-5)—Cincy is -2/-2/-3 in turnovers in three losses, 6-0 in other games, four of which they were even in turnovers, so unless they give game away, teams haven’t been beating them. Clubs coming off Thursday night game are 12-4 vs spread in their next game, with 10 days’ prep; teams that lost the Thursday night game are 7-1 vs spread in their next game. Bengals had 4-game win streak snapped when they gave up safety in OT at Miami, just third team ever to lose that way. Baltimore lost to Browns last week for first time in six years; they’ve lost last three games, scoring 17 ppg (5 TDs on 32 drives)won four of last five series games; Bengals lost last three visits here, by 6-7-31 points. Cincy was held to 5.2 yards/pass attempt in Miami, after averaging 10+ yards in each of previous two games. In their last three games, Ravens ran ball 69 times for 184 yards (2.7/carry). NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-6 vs spread. Five of last seven Baltimore games stayed under total; three of last four Bengal games went over.
Lions (5-3) @ Bears (5-3)— Cutler has been cleared to come back for this game after missing 1.5 games; Bears are on short week after upsetting Packers on road Monday night. Rodgers’ injury makes this game a real battle for top spot in NFC Central, since Pack figures to fade in his absence. Lions (-3) raced out to 30-13 lead, held Bears off 40-32 back in Week 4, in game with seven turnovers (Det +1) where Detroit scored a defensive TD and had two other TD drives of 2-22 yards, just Lions’ second win in last 11 series games- should they win this game and sweep season series, they would basically have 2-game lead over Chicago in division race. Detroit lost its last five visits here, losing by 4-24-5-24-6 points. Chicago is 3-1 at home, winning by 3-1-6 points; underdogs are 3-0-1 vs spread in their home games. Bears ran ball for 311 yards in last two games, stayed afloat with backup QB McCown playing- they’ve scored 24+ points in seven of eight games. Lions’ last two games were decided by total of four points; they’re 2-3 in last five post-bye games.
Panthers (5-3) @ 49ers (6-2)—Two hot teams collide here; Carolina won/covered last four games behind defense that’s allowed only one first half TD this year- they’ve outscored opponents 96-33 in first half and covered two of three as a dog, with only non-cover 12-7 home loss to Seattle in Week 1. 49ers are 2-7 vs spread, 2-6-1 SU in last nine post-bye games, but they’ve won/covered last five games, winning by average score of 35-12, with 13 takeaways (+8) in those five games. Niners covered three of four home games, losing 27-7 to Colts in Week 3, which is also last game they lost anywhere. Panthers have 19 takeaways (+8) in last six games; they’ve won last three series games but teams haven’t played since Harbaugh became coach of Niners- Panthers won five of last seven visits here. SF allowed 172 rushing yards to Seattle, in its only game vs QB who runs well this year. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, 3-4 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-4, 5-3 at home. Last four Carolina games and four of last five 49er games went over the total.
Texans (2-6) @ Cardinals (4-4)—Tough week for Houston, dealing with its coach having mini-stroke at halftime Sunday night; they’ve now lost six games in row and are playing rookie QB without its QB guru/play caller coach- thought they mismanaged clock at end of Indy game, punting down 3 with 2:05 left when they had only had two timeouts left, so game management also an issue with an interim coach. Texans scored 20 ppg (4 TDs/22 drives, only three 3/outs) in Keenum’s first two starts, after scoring 11.3 ppg in four games before that; Keenum has made more of effort to find star Johnson, while Schaub leaned on his TEs a lot. Arizona lost five of last six post-bye games; they’re 5-11-2 in last 18 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. Redbirds are 3-1 SU at home, losing only on a Thursday night to Seattle. Home side won both series meetings; Texans lost 28-21 in only visit here in ’09. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-4 vs spread. Five of last seven Arizona games, three of four Houston road games stayed under the total.
Broncos (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4)—Denver’s first game without Coach Fox, who had heart valve surgery Tuesday; think this situation is less disruptive than Houston’s, where Kubiak is play caller and mentor for rookie QB. Manning still runs Denver offense, so that remains unchanged; #18 won/covered his last seven post-bye games, scoring average of 34.6 ppg. Broncos won last three series games by 3-11-7 points; they’ve won three of last four visits to Qualcomm, winning by 11-3-11 points. San Diego lost OT game in Maryland last week, when Woodhead missed crossing goal line for winning TD by inches in last minute of regulation; Chargers are 2-1 at home, losing only by FG to Texans in Week 1, when people thought Houston was good- they’ve beaten Dallas/Colts at home. Denver scored 41.7 ppg in winning two of three on road, losing last road trip at Indy, winning 51-48 at Dallas, 41-23 at Giants before that. Broncos scored 38 points in second half of their last game, rallying from 21-7 down to beat Redskins. All eight Denver games went over the total.
Cowboys (5-4) @ Saints (6-2)—New Orleans is 4-0 as home favorite this year, winning by average score of 32-15; Payton covered his last 12 regular season home games- Saints are 17-7 in game following their last 24 losses. Saints turned ball over twice in all three of their losses (-3), only three times (+9) in their five wins. Rob Ryan coached Dallas defense LY, so he has to have at least a little advantage here, vs Cowboy squad that is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-1-9 points, with a 17-3 win at Philly (KO’d Foles after he had only 80 PY in over a half). Home team lost last five games in this series, with Saints winning seven of last eight (30-27/34-31 last two)- this is just second trip to Superdome for Dallas in last decade. Cowboys have 11 takeaways (+7) in last four games; tey ran ball only nine times last week, dropped back to pass 54 times- they won’t win shootout in this dome. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-6, 4-4 on road; NFC South home favorites are 5-2. Four of last five Saint games, four of last six Dallas games went over the total.
Dolphins (4-4) @ Buccaneers (0-8)—Not much to choose from here; winless Tampa led 21-0 last week in Seattle, still found way to lose- their four home losses are by 2-3-11-18 points. Bucs were outscored 80-26 in second half of last six games. Miami lost starting LT/LG after hazing debacle, Dolphin coaches are under fire, losing four of last five games after 3-0 start; they’ve been outscored 84-36 in second half of last five games. Fish ran ball for 156-157 yards in last two games, but now LG Incognito (suspended) is also out, so whole squad has had week full of distractions. Teams coming off Thursday night games are 12-4 vs spread in next game, 5-3 if they won the Thursday game. Home teams won four of last five series games; Dolphins lost three of four visits here, with win back in ’88. In eight games, covering 16 drives for both sides, Bucs have been outscored 27-3 on first drive of each half, so Tampa coaches are being outcoached. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 19-14 vs spread. Last four Buccaneer games and five of last seven Miami games went over the total.Comment
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NFL mid-week line moves: Sharps like Rams on road in Indy
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants – Open: -5.5, Move: -7.5
The Raiders were early 5.5-point road underdogs in New York but after their one-sided squash versus Philadelphia, bettors have driven this line past the key number of the touchdown.
“A couple hours after we opened, we got wiseguy play on Giants -5.5, so we moved to current number of -7.5,” says Perry. “Expect us to stay on this number until kickoff with 63 percent of the money on the Raiders.”
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons – Open: +7, Move: +6
Atlanta isn’t the contender it was last season but Seattle’s unimpressive outings have action on the home underdog, moving this line off a TD and as low as Falcons +6 at some markets.
“Sunday night, we took a sharp play on Falcons +7, so moved to the present number of +6.5,” says Perry. “About 69 percent of money is on Seattle.”
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – Open: +2.5, Move: +1
Is Jay Cutler in or out? The early money was banking on a return from the Bears No. 1 QB, and it looks like Cutler will be under center after being cleared to play Sunday.
“Earlier today got a sharp play on Chicago +2, so moved to +1.5,” says Perry. “It appears the Bears are in good hands no matter who starts at quarterback. About 75 percent of the cash is on the Lions.”
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +12, Move: +9.5
The Rams bring their feared pass rush to Indianapolis and it appears wiseguys like Jeff Fisher’s squad on the road in Week 10, bumping this spread as many as two points past the key number of 10 with 75 percent of the action on St. Louis.
“St. Louis is a very popular play with sharps,” says Perry. “On Monday, they went from +12 to +10 and on Tuesday made another move in their favor to the current number.”
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers – Open: 56, Move: 59
Sharps haven’t stepped into the fray for this AFC West shootout, but the public is pushing this total as high as three points with 83 percent of wagers on the Over.
“A heavy majority is playing the Over, so on Wednesday we moved from 58 to 59,” says Perry.Comment
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 10:
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5, 44)
Rams’ pass rush vs. Colts’ scrambled offense
Somewhere in the Hoosier State, Andrew Luck is staring longingly at a wallet-worn picture of injured WR Reggie Wayne. Luck looked lost without his favorite target against Houston last week. His timing was terrible, he overlooked open receivers and tried to squeeze the ball into coverage, something he could get away with when Wayne was running routes.
The biggest problem coming out of this is that Luck is slower getting the ball out without his safety net on the field. The Colts offensive line gave up four sacks to Houston, which has team owner Jim Irsay spitting hot fire on Twitter again, bashing his team’s protection which has allowed the third-most QB hits this season. The offensive line better take those tweets to heart, because here comes the Rams’ rush that has 29 sacks on the year. St. Louis’ defensive line can singlehandedly win games – that’s how good it is.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 41.5)
Texans’ Kubiak-less offense vs. Cardinals’ chaotic defense
The Texans got a scare last week when head coach Gary Kubiak suffered a stroke at halftime of their loss to Indianapolis. Kubiak is home recovering in Week 10, leaving the Texans in the hands of interim coach Wade Phillips. Kubiak is the mastermind behind this offense and has also been the mentor for second-year QB Case Keenum, spending the team’s entire bye week with him. Offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will instead be calling the plays against an Arizona defense that thrives on chaos.
The Cardinals have one of the fastest front sevens in the NFL and talented ball hawks behind them in the secondary. Arizona is a blitz-happy stop unit and loves to bring the pressure, smelling blood in the water with Keenum on deck. Without Kubiak’s keen eye, Dennison could fail to make the necessary adjustments and provided the comfort level Keenum needs to survive this road test. Arizona has 23 sacks and 12 interceptions this season.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)
Broncos’ third-down offense vs. Chargers’ third-down defense
Getting Peyton Manning off the field is hard work. The Broncos have kept the chains moving on more than half of their third-down tries and average a league-high 6.4 third-down conversions per game. Those numbers have helped Denver top the NFL in first downs per contest which in turn has sparked an offense scoring almost 0.6 points per play. It’s no surprise the Broncos are 8-0 over/under on the year.
San Diego isn’t that shabby on third downs either, ranked second to Denver with a 47.92 percent success rate on third down. Stopping opponents on third down, however, is a completely different ballgame for the Bolts. The Chargers are allowing opponents to convert on 42.27 percent of their third downs – putting them in the same league as Jacksonville and Minnesota. San Diego watched Washington convert 12 third downs in last week’s overtime loss, including a crucial third-and-8 in the added frame.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7, 54)
Cowboys’ small secondary vs. Saints’ towering TE Jimmy Graham
Jimmy Graham would be a mismatch for most defenses, unless Shaquille O’Neal was playing safety. But the Saints' talented tight end is looking like fantasy fire heading into this Sunday night’s showdown with Dallas. Graham has four touchdown catches in the past two games – and he’s playing on one foot. On the year, the 6-foot-7 behemoth has 49 receptions for 746 yards and 10 TD catches – tops in the NFL.
The Cowboys secondary, which tops out at 6-foot-2, has been bullied by big receivers all season. They gave up 66 yards and a TD to Giants TE Brandon Myers, 56 yards and a score to KC hefty WR Dwayne Bowe, a score to Rams’ 6-foot-3 WR Austin Pettis, 136 yards and a TD to San Diego TE Antonio Gates, 122 yards and two TDs vs. Denver TE Julius Thomas, a TD to Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph, and a season’s worth of yardage, six points and their first-born sons to Calvin Johnson. Expect a few football to get dunk over the upright in the Big Easy Sunday night.Last edited by Udog; 11-08-2013, 01:11 PM.Comment
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NFL
Monday, November 11
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Sunday's NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)
The Cincinnati Bengals will have had nine full days to stew over a difficult loss when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday for a big AFC North matchup. A safety in overtime was the difference in Cincinnati's 22-20 loss at Miami on Halloween night, a setback that also saw the Bengals lose another starter on defense in standout tackle Geno Atkins to an ACL tear. The Ravens can close within a game in the loss column with a victory on Sunday.
However, the defending Super Bowl champs have been sinking since a 3-2 start, dropping three in a row, including a 24-18 decision at Cleveland last Sunday. It marked the fifth time this season that Baltimore - which ranked 10th in the league in scoring last year - has been held to 20 points or fewer. This contest begins a string in which the Ravens play four of five games at home, where they have won 18 of their last 21 games dating back to 2010.
LINE: The Bengals have held steady as a one-point dog, with the total currently 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-3.5) + Baltimore (+3.0) - home field (-3.0) = Bengals -3.5
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf.
* Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous outing.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (PICK, 52.5)
Detroit stars Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson put on quite a display against the Dallas Cowboys last week, with the former passing for 488 yards and the latter accounting for a team-record 329 of them. Johnson fell seven yards shy of the NFL's single-game record set on Nov. 26, 1989, by Flipper Anderson. Stafford reached the 15,000-yard plateau faster than any quarterback in league history, doing so in his 53rd career game.
The Bears received some surprising news Thursday as quarterback Jay Cutler declared himself fit to play, improving what has already been a potent and versatile offense. Running back Matt Forte has scored nine touchdowns - six rushing - in 11 games against the Lions. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall enters Sunday's contest with a streak of five straight home games with a touchdown.
LINE: The Bears opened as a 2.5-point dog, but the line has since been bet up to a pick. The total is 52.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 5 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.5) - Chicago (-2.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
TRENDS:
* Lions are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 Week 10 games.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 47)
Eagles quarterback Foles, who threw for an NFL record-tying seven touchdowns last week, has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 777 rushing yards, but he has run for 60 yards or fewer in four of his last five games. The Eagles’ defense has recovered from a rough start to the season, as Philadelphia has yielded 21 points or fewer in five straight games.
A collarbone injury has shelved Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for at least four weeks. Fortunately, the Packers finally have a running game they can depend on. Rookie bruiser Eddie Lacy has rushed for 545 yards since Oct. 1 – the highest total in the NFL - including a career-high 150 yards last week. Green Bay expects to have Clay Matthews back on Sunday after the All-Pro linebacker missed the last four games with a thumb injury.
LINE: Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point fave, but the line has moved to -1. The total has slipped from 48 to 47.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 9 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+1.5) + Green Bay (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -5.5
TRENDS:
* Eagles are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Packers are 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 44)
The Colts posted their second consecutive victory in stirring fashion, overcoming an 18-point third-quarter deficit to post a 27-24 triumph over Houston last week. T.Y. Hilton made his presence known with veteran wideout Reggie Wayne sidelined with a torn ACL by reeling in a career-best seven catches for 121 yards and franchise-tying three receiving touchdowns against the Texans.
Indianapolis leads the AFC South by two games over Tennessee, which handed St. Louis its third straight loss last week and faces the Colts on Thursday. With quarterback Sam Bradford's season also felled by a torn ACL, the Rams have shifted their focus toward Zac Stacy. The rookie followed up his 134-yard performance in a 14-9 loss to Seattle on Oct. 28 by rushing for his first two career touchdowns to highlight his 27-carry, 127-yard effort versus the Titans.
LINE: Indy opened -10.5 and is now -10. The total opened at 43 and is up to 44.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+6.0) + Indianapolis (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -13
TRENDS:
* Rams are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Colts are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-3 in St. Louis' last 10 games following an SU loss.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+4, 45)
Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is excelling after racking up a season-high 125 yards against Tampa Bay to move up to second in the NFL with 726 rushing yards. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of the past five games and is also doing damage with his feet (375 rushing yards). Cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas are tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions.
Standout receiver Roddy White (hamstring, ankle) could be back after a three-game absence to help alleviate Ryan’s troubles. White has just 14 receptions for 129 yards in an injury-prone campaign after six consecutive seasons of more than 80 catches and 1,200 yards. Atlanta could use some help from a defense that has allowed at least 23 points in each game.
LINE: Seattle opened as a 5.5-point fave and is now -4. The total opened 44 and is up to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-6.0) + Atlanta (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7
TRENDS:
* Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
* Falcons are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous outing.
* Under is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games in November.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7, 44)
Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor leads the team in rushing with 485 yards and is 45 yards shy of passing Rich Gannon for the club record for a quarterback. Where Pryor struggles is in the passing game, with four interceptions and no touchdowns in the past two contests, and he could have his running attempts limited due to a knee sprain.
One of the reasons the New York defense was able to be so effective the last two games is because Eli Manning and the offense weren’t putting it into bad positions with turnovers. The former Super Bowl MVP threw 15 interceptions in the first six weeks but was not picked off in either of the two victories while focusing on shorter passing attempts.
LINE: New York has held firm as a 9.5-point fave, with the total up half a point to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 9 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - New York (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
* Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in Week 10.
* The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-13, 41)
Jacksonville comes out of its bye week with little room for optimism. The offense averages a pitiful 10.8 points per game, and what small glimmer of success the Jaguars have enjoyed was wiped out when receiver Justin Blackmon was suspended indefinitely for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The defense hasn't been much better and ranks last in the league against the run, allowing 161.8 yards per game.
Tennessee struggled through a three-game losing streak against tough competition in October, but two of those defeats came with quarterback Jake Locker on the shelf. Locker has been solid when healthy, completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,232 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. The Titans have been strong against the pass but have a tough time stopping the run, so grabbing an early lead will be key.
LINE: Tennessee opened -13. The total has remained at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 6 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+10.0) - Tennessee (0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -13
TRENDS:
* Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC foes.
* Under is 10-2-1 in Jacksonville's last 13 games against the AFC South.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)
Buffalo is in last place in the AFC East after falling to Kansas City 23-13 last week. The Bills held a surprising 10-3 lead at the half but surrendered a pair of back-breaking defensive scores after the break. Rookie Jeff Tuel was picked off in the end zone and Sean Smith returned the interception 100 yards to tie the game and the Bills lost a contest that they had totally dominated statistically.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is on pace to throw for the most yards of his career but that's a testament to a team that has been playing from behind all season. The once-proud Steeler defense allowed New England's Tom Brady to break out of a major slump to throw for 432 yards and four touchdowns last week. Pittsburgh has also been gouged on the ground all season long allowing 131.3 yards a game which ranks 31st in the league.
LINE: The Steelers opened -3.5 and are now -3. The total opened at 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 10 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - Pittsburgh (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -3
TRENDS:
* Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an SU loss.
* Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 10-2 in Pittsburgh's last 12 home games vs. teams with losing road records.
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NFL
Monday, November 11
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Sunday's NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 43)
Carolina's offense has flourished of late, topping 30 points in four straight games and five of the past six. Cam Newton has returned to the dynamic form he showed as a rookie, completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 1,801 yards and 13 TDs and rushing for 251 yards and four scores. The defense has provided a big assist, though, as the Panthers have forced at least one turnover in every game and have recorded three or more takeaways four times.
The defending NFC champions had a couple of early stumbles in ugly losses to Seattle and Indianapolis, but they've been nothing short of dominant while winning five straight. The 49ers rank last in the league in passing, but they've rolled up an NFL-best 153 yards per game on the ground and have limited their mistakes during the winning streak. The defense has been solid against the run and the pass and has forced 13 turnovers the past five games.
LINE: The 49ers opened -6.5 but are now-5.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-2.0) + San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -7.5
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* 49ers are 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
* Over is 12-3 in San Francisco's last 15 games.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 42)
Houston was enduring a disappointing season on the field before it began to worry about its head coach, and squandering a 24-6 lead with 4:25 left in the third quarter of last week's loss to Indianapolis represented a new low point. The Texans rank first in the NFL in passing defense, surrendering an average of 158 yards, but allowed three passing touchdowns in the final 15:05 to watch its lead evaporate.
Arizona went into its bye week on a high note with a 27-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. The Cardinals were most effective against the Falcons in the secondary, intercepting Matt Ryan four times, and got a strong October from rookie safety Tyrann Mathieu, who was named the NFC’s defensive Rookie of the Month. Mathieu and Rashad Johnson combined for three picks from the free safety position against Atlanta.
LINE: The Cardinals are 3-point faves after opening -3.5. The total opened 43 and is up to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+3.5) - Arizona (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4
TRENDS:
* Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 30-11 in Arizona's last 41 games after finishing with fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous outing.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)
The bye week did not provide a much-needed respite for the Denver Broncos, who lost their head coach for perhaps the rest of the season when John Fox underwent a surgical procedure to repair a heart valve. Quarterback Peyton Manning, who's often been likened to a coach on the field, has thrown for 2,919 yards and 29 touchdown passes so Denver is not expecting a dip in its offensive efficiency in Fox's absence.
Philip Rivers is experience a career revival in Mike McCoy's offense following a pair a pair of turnover-riddled seasons, throwing for 17 TDs against seven interceptions and posting a 106.5 passer rating - third best in the league. Ryan Mathews had back-to-back 100-yard games, but he was limited to 34 on seven carries at Washington and San Diego failed to score from the 1-yard line on three tries in the final seconds of regulation.
LINE: The Broncos opened as 7-point road faves. The total opened at 56 and is up to 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 4 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.0) - San Diego (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -4
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC West opponents.
* Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an SU loss.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
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NFL
Monday, November 11
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Lions at Bears: What bettors need to know
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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Pick, 53)
The Detroit Lions attempt to sweep the season series against the Chicago Bears for the first time since 2007 when the NFC North co-leaders clash in the Windy City on Sunday. Detroit looks to snap a five-game losing streak at Chicago - which expects to have Jay Cutler back - and end a stretch of
six consecutive road losses against division rivals. The Lions used their bye week to recuperate from their thrilling 31-30 home victory over Dallas in Week 8, a triumph in which Matthew Stafford scored on a quarterback sneak with 12 seconds remaining.
The Bears also are coming off a big win, as they forged a three-way tie atop the division with Detroit and Green Bay by posting a 27-20 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field on Monday. Starting for the injured Cutler, Josh McCown threw a pair of touchdown passes while Chicago knocked Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers out of the game with a broken collarbone. Cutler, who was expected to miss four weeks with the groin injury he suffered against Washington on Oct. 20, was cleared to practice on Thursday and coach Marc Trestman said he expects him to start Sunday.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: The Bears opened at +1, but the line has moved to a Pick. The total opened at 52 and is now 53.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid 40s with an 8 mph wind blowing towards the SE corner of the endzone.
ABOUT THE LIONS (5-3): Stafford and Calvin Johnson put on quite a display against the Cowboys, with the former passing for 488 yards and the latter accounting for a team-record 329 of them. Johnson fell seven yards shy of the NFL's single-game record set on Nov. 26, 1989, by Flipper Anderson. Stafford reached the 15,000-yard plateau faster than any quarterback in league history, doing so in his 53rd career game.
ABOUT THE BEARS (5-3): Defensive end Shea McClellin registered three of Chicago's season-high five sacks against the Packers, including the one that shelved Rodgers. Running back Matt Forte has scored nine touchdowns - six rushing - in 11 games against the Lions. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall enters Sunday's contest with a streak of five straight home games with a touchdown.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC North.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Detroit snapped a three-game slide in the all-time series with a 40-32 home triumph on Sept. 29.
2. The Bears own a 96-66-5 record in the series and have dominated of late, winning nine of the last 11 meetings.
3. Chicago is 29th in the league against the run, allowing an average of 127.5 yards per game.
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NFL
Monday, November 11
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Sunday Night Football betting: Cowboys at Saints
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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 53.5)
The Dallas Cowboys have had trouble away from home and face a difficult road test when they visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. New Orleans is undefeated at home and leads the NFC South by one game, but is coming off an ugly offensive performance in a 26-20 defeat at the New York Jets last week. The game features a juicy subplot - Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan gets to face the team that fired him from the same position after last season.
Dallas owns a one-game lead atop the NFC East following a last-minute, come-from-behind victory over the Minnesota Vikings last week. It marked another close call for the Cowboys, who have lost three of their four games by a combined five points. Dallas has dropped two straight and seven of eight against the Saints, including a 34-31 overtime home loss in December 2012 - a game in which New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
LINE: The Saints opened at -7 and have been bet down to -6.5. The total opened at 52.5 and is up to 53.5.
WEATHER: N/A.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-4): Tony Romo threw for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week to rally the Cowboys, his third 300-yard game in the past five as the running game continues to struggle. Running back DeMarco Murray returned from a two-game injury absence but had only four carries for 31 yards as the Cowboys ran the ball a franchise-low nine times. Romo had a huge game in last season's loss to New Orleans, throwing for 416 yards and four touchdown passes. Dez Bryant had nine receptions for a career-best 224 yards and a pair of scores in that game, but he missed practice Wednesday due to back tightness and was limited in Thursday's session.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (6-2): New Orleans has lost two of three following a 5-0 start and part of the problem is an inability to run the ball while stopping the opponent from doing so. The Saints managed 41 yards on 13 carries and were gashed for 198 yards on the ground by the Jets. "We've been a little bit lopsided," New Orleans coach Sean Payton said. "Pass protection becomes more manageable when you're running the football." Tight end Jimmy Graham has two TD catches in four of his last five games despite battling a foot injury, and the passing game should be helped by the return of running back Darren Sproles, who suffered a concussion last week.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 11-4 in Cowboys last 15 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games on fieldturf.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Brees and Romo rank 2-3 in the league with 21 and 20 TD passes, respectively.
2. Dallas is 11-0 when Murray has at least 18 carries.
3. Three-time Pro Bowl LB Jonathan Vilma (knee) was placed on season-ending injured reserve by the Saints just three days after making his season debut.
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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves
The second half of the NFL season is in full swing and news of a few key players that could return from injury has odds on the move:
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -3.5, Move: -2.5
News that EJ Manuel gets the start for the Bills had bettors backing Buffalo. But can the rook turn the Bills' season around? The AFC East cellar dwellers were 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS with Manuel under center this season.
"The 3.5 opener didn’t last long before being a juiced 3," Black tells Covers. "Pittsburgh struggles against the run, and with RB’s CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson coming at them, the Steelers' defense may struggle with the run again this week. Action so far is split down the middle."
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +6, Move: +4.5
The Seahawks narrowly escaped their last two games with victories. They required a comeback to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and barely beat the St. Louis Rams. They have won four-straight games, but are 1-4 ATS in their last five.
"Atlanta WR Roddy White is upgraded to probable, and that has moved the line, but the line was already moving before that," confirms Black. "The running game has been one of the main pillars of Seattle's success, but injuries to the offensive line are causing concern for those looking to back them away from home at a desperate Falcons team. Action still likes the Seahawks at about a 2-to-1 clip ATS, but SU sees a little more on the Falcons."
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears - Open: +1, Move: Pick
Another player set to make a return is Bears QB Jay Cutler. News of such an upgrade had bettors backing the Bears, but injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball have them treading lightly.
"The line has bounced back and forth from small-fave Detroit to small-fave Chicago, but it should end up as a Pick or slight Bears fave," says Black. "Action likes the Bears at a 2-to-1 clip."
Black also confirms that bettors like the Over in this matchup. The total opened 52 and has been bet up to 52.5.Comment
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NFL betting: This week's top 5 key injuries
The quarterback position continues to be a merry-go-round for several teams heading into Week 10 of the NFL season.
The Buffalo Bills welcome back their electrifying rookie signal caller, while the Green Bay Packers face their first full game without their starting QB. Other teams face shortages at key positions - including the Seahawks, who are still waiting for their prized free-agent acquisition to make his Seattle debut.
Here are five key injuries entering a busy Sunday:
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (out, hip)
The hype over Harvin possibly returning in Week 7 or 8 has given way to a more realistic assessment. After suffering a minor setback in his return from a major offseason hip injury, the 25-year-old still hasn't been added to the Seattle roster and isn't practicing with the team yet. As badly as Harvin might like to return for the Seahawks' Week 11 tilt with his old team, the Minnesota Vikings, it's likely the speedy wideout will remain on the sidelines beyond the team's Week 12 bye with an eye on returning the following week against New Orleans.
Seattle is installed as a 4-point favorite for Sunday's showdown with host Atlanta. The total is 45.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (out, collarbone)
The Packers' postseason hopes took a major hit after Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone in Monday night's 27-20 loss to the Chicago Bears. The team has placed a 4-to-6-week timetable on Rodgers' return to the lineup, though historical precedent would suggest that Rodgers probably won't be back in four weeks' time. Veteran Seneca Wallace, who went 11-for-19 for 114 yards and an interception, will be under center - and judging by the nine-point swing in this week's line, bettors don't have much faith in his abilities.
The Packers are a one-point underdog vs. the visiting Philadelphia Eagles, with the total at 47.
Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (out, back)
Foster won't give up on returning this season despite reports he's dealing with a significant disc problem in his back that may require surgery. The fifth-year running back is considered week-to-week, but is reportedly seeking other medical opinions in an effort to be cleared to return as soon as possible. His absence leaves a major hole in Houston's already mediocre offense, with the underwhelming Ben Tate expected to see the bulk of the carries. Dennis Johnson, signed late last month, will back him up.
The Texans go into Arizona as a 3-point underdog against the Cardinals. The total is set at 42.
Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (questionable, hamstring)
Falcons fans will be ecstatic to know that White will finally return to the field in an attempt to salvage what has been his worst season to date. The 32-year-old has been dealing with a hamstring issue that has kept him out the last three games, but he reportedly looked spry in practice and has declared himself good to go. White will instantly boost a Falcons' passing game that has been decimated by the loss of Julio Jones (foot). White's presence gives Matt Ryan another reliable option in the passing game to complement Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas.
Atlanta is installed as a 4-point underdog against visiting Seattle, with the total at 45.
E.J. Manuel, QB, Buffalo Bills (probable, knee)
Manuel has exceeded even the most recent timetable; despite not being expected back until next week, the first-year QB looked good in practice and will get the start Sunday barring any setbacks. Manuel hasn't played since Week 5 after suffering a sprained LCL in a 37-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Bills have already used three different quarterbacks this season, so the return of Manuel not only gives them the best chance to win - it also means some much-needed stability for what has been a beleaguered pass offense.
Buffalo enters Sunday's game in Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog, with the total set at 43.5.Comment
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NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)
Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Pick, 53)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the low-40s. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (+1, 47)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s and wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7.5, 44)
Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind will blow across the field at 15 mph.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-13, 41)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-50s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 6 mph.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5)
Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph and temperatures will be in the mid-40s.
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7, 58)
Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 6 mph. Temperatures will be in the high-60s.Comment
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Essential betting tidbits for Week 10 of the NFL
- The Bengals defense gives up 18.4 points per game, but has now lost All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season. The total is currently at 45.
- The last three times these teams have met in Baltimore, the Ravens have gone 3-0 straight up, outscoring the Bengals by a combined score of 88-44.
- Reggie Bush gashed the Bears for 139 yards back in Week 4 and the Bears are ranked 29th against the run this season.
- Jay Cutler returns under center for the Bears since leaving in Week 7 with a groin injury. They average 28.6 points per game with Cutler in the lineup and have beaten the Lions five straight times at Soldier Field.
- Nick Foles has not been intercepted in 118 attempts this season and the Packers have only picked off QBs five times through eight games.
- Seneca Wallace is only the fourth QB to start for the Packers since 1992. He is 6-15 as a starter and has a career completion percentage of 59.1.
- Since rookie sensation Zac Stacey has joined the Rams backfield, he is averaging 113.2 yards per game, including 307 yards in the past 2 games. The Colts allow 124.9 rushing yards per game.
- The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record.
- Despite the Seahawks' strong start to the season, they are just 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
- Matt Ryan been picked off seven times for the Falcons in the last two games and the Seahawks are tied for the league lead in interceptions with 13.
- Darren McFadden has been ruled out for the Raiders this week, who are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- The Giants rushing attack will look to get a boost to their as they welcome back RB Andre Brown, who broke his leg in the pre-season. The Giants only average 69.9 yards rushing per game this season, but they have out-rushed opponents the last 3 games and gone 3-0 ATS in that span.
- The Titans rushed for 198 yards last week versus the Rams. The Jaguars give up a league-worst 161.8 rushing yards per game.
- Both teams score a combined 32.4 points per game and the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. The total is currently at 41.
- First round pick EJ Manuel will be back at QB for the Bills this week. The Bills ware 3-2 ATS with Manuel under center this season.
- The Steelers have given up 197 yards rushing to Oakland and England in the last two weeks. The Bills rank seventh in rushing.
- During the Panthers four game winning streak, Cam Newton has completed 74.8 percent of his passes and they are 4-0 ATS in that span.
- The 49ers are on a six-game winning streak and are 6-0 ATS over that stretch. The Niners have out-rushed the opponent in each game, but the Panthers own the second ranked rush defense this season.
- The Texans will try to avoid the longest losing streak in team history, and will have to do so without star running back Arian Foster and head coach Gary Kubiak. They are 1-7 ATS this season.
- The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS at home this season and 5-0 ATS in the last five games against teams with a losing record. The Cards are currently favored by a field goal.
- The Broncos are 8-0 O/U and are averaging a league best 42.9 points per game, the total is currently at 58 for their matchup against the San Diego Chargers.
- Chargers head coach and former Broncos offensive co-ordinator Mike McCoy has brought the magic back to Philip Rivers' game. Rivers averages 309.1 passing yards per game and the Broncos pass defense is ranked 30th in the league.
- The Cowboys have been up and down this year with 5-4 record, but are a league-best 7-2 ATS this season. Dez Bryant is expected to play despite a back injury.
- The Saints are 4-0 ATS at home this year and have only given up 12 points per game in that span behind Rob Ryan's defense.Comment
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NFL
Monday, November 11
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Tale of the Tape: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
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Two teams with shaky leads in their respective divisions face off Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints entertain the Dallas Cowboys.
This game features the second-highest total of the week, and with good reason - both offenses can put up points in bunches. The Cowboys come in with a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Eagles in the mediocre NFC East, while the Saints are up a game on hard-charging Carolina in the NFC South.
Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:
Offense
The Cowboys find themselves in the middle of the pack in terms of total yards per game (342.8, 17th) thanks to a largely one-dimensional attack. Led by polarizing quarterback Tony Romo, Dallas is ninth in the NFL in average passing yards (267.1) while its 20 touchdowns through the air are third-most in the league. The run game has been far less successful, ranked 27th overall in yards per contest (75.7) with just five touchdowns and 3.7 yards per attempt.
The Saints have had one of the league's premier pass attacks for years - and that trend has continued through the first half of this season. New Orleans ranks third in the NFL with 315.6 passing yards per game - a fraction behind the second-place Detroit Lions - and has the second-most TDs in the NFL (21). Like Dallas, the Saints have had trouble generating much offense on the ground, ranking one spot ahead of the Cowboys at 79.8 yards per game.
Edge: New Orleans
Defense
If Saints quarterback Drew Brees isn't harassed by the Dallas pass rush, it could be a long day for the Cowboys. The NFC East leaders boast one of the worst pass defenses in football, allowing the second-highest average yard total (305.2) while surrendering a whopping 16 touchdowns. Dallas does have two things working for it: one of the highest interception totals in the NFL (12) and a decent run defense (114 yards against per game, 17th).
For all the grief New Orleans has taken over its past defensive struggles, the critics have rightfully fallen silent so far in 2013. The Saints have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league (1,695) while limiting opponents to eight touchdowns against nine interceptions. New Orleans is also among the NFL leaders with 26 sacks, but remains relatively easy to run against - the Saints are allowing the eight-most yards per game on the ground (121.3).
Edge: New Orleans
Special Teams
Dallas has the best kickoff return average in the NFL at 31.1 yards per attempt, and sits tied with the Chicago Bears for third in punt-return average (14.3). The Cowboys also excel in the return game, ranked 12th in average kickoff yardage (21.5) and 13th in yards per punt return (7.6). Veteran kicker Dan Bailey has had a strong year to date - going 16-for-18 on field-goal attempts - and connected from 41 and 44 yards out in last week's narrow victory over Minnesota.
New Orleans' return team pales in comparison to that of the Cowboys, averaging the third-fewest yards per kick return (20.4) while ranking 18th in punt return average (7.8). The Saints haven't defended kick returns well - allowing a whopping 26.4 yards per attempt - but have limited foes to just 5.9 yards per punt return on 12 opportunities. Kicker Garrett Hartley has struggled from long-range, making just 7-of-11 attempts from at least 40 yards out.
Edge: Dallas
Notable Quotable
"They're probably pretty similar. Calvin's probably a bit faster but Graham is probably better at using his body, shielding you off because he is so big. He's a tough matchup because of his size and his speed. He can jump and run and he's got some shiftiness to him. So we're going to have to find him before the play and play accordingly." - Cowboys S Jeff Heath, comparing Saints TE Jimmy Graham to Detroit Lions star WR Calvin Johnson
"It's frustrating ... and it's everybody. On one play, it's not blocked correctly, on the next one it's not hitting the right hole ... it's obviously frustrating, especially as a lineman, protecting a guy like Drew Brees and becoming one-dimensional. That's not a good situation for us." - Saints T Zach Strief on his team's struggles running the ball
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NFL
Monday, November 11
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Raiders at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-9.5, 44)
The New York Giants are rather shockingly still alive in the NFC East, where a two-game winning streak is cause for much celebration. The Giants will look to turn that into a three-game run when they host the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. New York is in last place in the East after its 0-6 start but is beginning a three-game homestand and has three divisional games remaining against the Washington Redskins (two) and the Dallas Cowboys (one).
The big change during the Giants’ two wins came on the defensive side of the ball, where they held Minnesota and Philadelphia to seven points apiece after surrendering an average of 34.8 during the 0-6 start. New York’s strength is in stopping the run while the Raiders do their best work on the ground with Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden. Oakland had plenty of trouble stropping the pass against its last NFC East opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, who threw for seven touchdowns in a 49-20 shellacking last week.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Giants are -9.5 home favorites. The total opened at 43.5 and moved up to 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid 50s with a 15 mph wind blowing across the field.
POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (+6.0) - Giants (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-5): Pryor leads the team in rushing with 485 yards and is 45 yards shy of passing Rich Gannon for the club record for a quarterback. Where Pryor struggles is in the passing game, with four interceptions and no touchdowns in the past two contests, and he could have his running attempts limited due to a knee sprain. Oakland is trying to move on from its terrible effort against the Eagles. “Absolutely, there’s no question there’s a bad taste in our mouth right now, but that one’s over with,” head coach Dennis Allen said. “That one’s done and I can promise you we’ll have a bunch of guys who will be ready to get back to work.”
ABOUT THE GIANTS (2-6): One of the reasons the defense was able to be so effective the last two games is because Eli Manning and the offense weren’t putting it into bad positions with turnovers. The former Super Bowl MVP threw 15 interceptions in the first six weeks but was not picked off in either of the two victories while focusing on shorter passing attempts. New York is ranked 30th in the league in rushing at an average of 69.9 yards but is expecting Andre Brown to make his season debut in the backfield after sitting out the first eight games with a broken leg.
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.
* Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with a losing record.
* Under is 8-1 in Raiders last nine games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Giants last five home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Giants RB David Wilson (neck) was placed on season-ending injured reserve while RB Brandon Jacobs (hamstring) is questionable.
2. McFadden (hamstring) was limited to five carries against the Eagles and is questionable for Sunday.
3. New York WR Victor Cruz, who has 18 catches for 282 yards in two games against AFC opponents this season, sat out practice on Wednesday with a neck injury but expects to play Sunday.
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