The Bum's October NFL POD'S + Trends + Stats & News !

[StarDust Bum]

Late Games:


Pittsburgh - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +1 500 POD # 4

Oakland - Over 40.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:05 PM ET N.Y. Jets +5.5 500 POD # 1

Cincinnati - Over 40.5 500

Atlanta - 4:25 PM ET Atlanta +2.5 500 POD # 3

Arizona - Under 45 500

Washington - 4:25 PM ET Denver -11 500 POD # 2

Denver - Under 58 500

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Packers at Vikings

October 25, 2013


GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -9.5 & 47.5
Opening Line & Total: Packers -6.5 & 46.5

The Vikings play their second straight primetime game when they host the injury-riddled Packers on Sunday night.

Minnesota played the Giants in what was a sloppy Monday night affair, losing 23-7 after turning the ball over three times and putting up just 206 total yards of offense. QB Josh Freeman's awful performance coupled with an apparent concussion has the Vikings turning the offense back over to QB Christian Ponder, their Week 1 starter. Green Bay has a whole slew of injuries to top receivers, with WR Randall Cobb (fibula), TE Jermichael Finley (neck) and WR James Jones (knee) all out, but the team has still won three straight contests and will get back its top CB in Casey Hayward (hamstring) on Sunday night as well.

The Packers improved to 3-2-1 ATS on the season with last week's 31-13 rout of the Browns, but are 0-2-1 ATS on the road. They are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in this series since 2010, but the lone SU loss was a 37-34 defeat at Minnesota in Week 17 last year, which allowed the Vikings to make the playoffs, where they lost 24-10 in Green Bay a week later. The Packers are 18-8 ATS (69%) after the first month of the season over the last three years and they are 13-2 ATS (87%) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games since 1992. But Minnesota is 6-0 ATS versus poor kickoff coverage teams (24+ yards per return) in the past two seasons, and benefits from the fact that favorites coming off a win by 14+ points against an opponent with two straight double-digit losses are just 10-32 ATS (24%) over the past 10 seasons.

The Packers have now won three straight games despite battling through a number of injuries. QB Aaron Rodgers was on his game against Cleveland on Sunday as he threw for 260 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. That gives Rodgers 1,906 passing yards this season with 13 TD and just 4 INT. He has always played well in this series too, with a 71% completion rate, 2,823 passing yards, 24 TD and just 4 INT in 10 career starts versus Green Bay. Rodgers will be without many of his favorite targets against the Vikings, but WR Jarrett Boykin seems to be more than ready to step in and make up the loss. Last week, the undrafted second-year pro caught eight passes for 103 yards and a touchdown, and will start Sunday's game alongside top WR Jordy Nelson, who is enjoying a fine season with 32 catches for 526 yards (16.4 avg.) and 5 TD.

A big reason the Packers have been able to win despite the receiver injuries is the emergence of rookie RB Eddie Lacy, who has rushed for an NFL-best 301 yards over the past three games on a solid 4.4 YPC. Last week he also caught five passes for 26 yards, showing he can help Rodgers through the air with their receivers down. Green Bay's rushing defense will have the tough task of stopping Adrian Peterson, but it appears they are ready for the challenge as they have allowed just 79.0 rushing YPG and 3.4 yards per carry, which both rank 3rd in the NFL.

Green Bay's struggling secondary has allowed 267 passing YPG (24th in NFL), but the return of CB Casey Hayward will give his team a significant boost, especially in the red zone where the Packers rank last in the NFL with a 71% efficiency rate on defense. Although Green Bay's best pass rusher, OLB Clay Matthews (thumb) remains out, the team has still be able to rack up 17 sacks in the past four games. That has helped compensate for a defense that has forced one turnover or less in five of six contests in 2013.

The Vikings turned to QB Josh Freeman as their starting quarterback against the Giants and he came away with a memorable performance. Unfortunately for Minnesota, that performance will remembered as one of the worst of all time as Freeman went 20-for-53 for 190 yards and an interception. Freeman's 37.7% completion rate was the worst in the NFL for a passer who attempted over 40 attempts in six years.

But having suffered a concussion in the game, the team will turn back to QB Christian Ponder, who is 0-3 as a starter this year with a 59% completion rate, 6.9 YPA, 2 TD and 5 INT. He has also been wildly inaccurate versus the Packers in four career starts (47.9% completion rate), but had a huge game against them in Week 17 of last year with 234 passing yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. RB Adrian Peterson has also run all over Green Bay in a dozen career games, piling up 1,442 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. But last week Peterson struggled (28 yards on 13 carries) as the Giants loaded up the box, which is likely going to happen again.

Vikings WR Greg Jennings, a long-time Packers player, was targeted 10 times in the last game and should maintain a large workload with Ponder, as the duo has connected on 11 of the 17 passes for a strong 14.6 yards per reception. Although Minnesota's defense has allowed the sixth-most yards in the NFL (391 YPG), and fourth-most points (30.2 PPG), a big part of that is a terrible offense that has put the defense on the field for a league-high 34:10 this season. One positive for this Vikings team is that they have defended the run well all season. Minnesota is allowing just 102.3 yards per game on the ground (14th in NFL), and just 3.6 yards per carry (7th in league). Stopping the red-hot Eddie Lacy is going to be crucial on Monday, as will pressuring Aaron Rodgers, who the Vikings have compiled 35 sacks over the past nine times they have faced him.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Week Matchup Line Score ATS

1 N.Y. Giants at Dallas -3.5, 49.5 36-31 Favorite-Over

2 San Francisco at Seattle -2.5, 44.5 29-3 Favorite-Under

3 Chicago at Pittsburgh -2.5, 40.5 40-23 Favorite-Over

4 New England at Atlanta -3, 50 30-23 Underdog-Over

5 Houston at San Francisco -4, 44 34-3 Favorite-Under

6 Washington at Dallas -6, 53.5 31-16 Favorite-Under

7 Denver at Indianapolis -6.5, 56.5 39-33 Underdog-Over

8 Green Bay at Minnesota - - -

9 Indianapolis at Houston - - -

10 Dallas at New Orleans - - -

11 Green Bay at N.Y. Giants - - -

12 Denver at New England - - -

13 N.Y. Giants at Washington - - -

14 Atlanta at Green Bay - - -

15 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - - -

16 New England at Baltimore

[StarDust Bum]

SNF POD:


Green Bay - 8:30 PM ET Minnesota +7.5 500 POD # 1

Minnesota - Under 47.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 28

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Monday Night Football betting: Seahawks at Rams
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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+11.5, 42.5)

Having lost their starting quarterback for the season and whiffed on an attempt to lure Brett Favre out of retirement, the St. Louis Rams are facing the unenviable task of solving one of the league's most ferocious defenses in a prime-time matchup. Former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford suffered a torn ACL in last week's loss to Carolina, putting Kellen Clemens in the line of fire when the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks visit the Rams on Monday night.

The Seahawks have won two straight since their lone defeat at Indianapolis and hold a one-game lead over San Francisco atop the division. Seattle's calling card is a unit that is second in total defense (282.1 yards per game) and interceptions (11) and third in the league in points allowed with an average of 16.6 per game. Although the teams split a pair of narrow decisions last season, the Seahawks have won 14 of the last 16 against St. Louis.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Rams opened as 10-point home dogs and are now +11.5. The total opened 42.5.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (6-1): While Seattle's defense receives a ton of attention, the offense has been efficient behind second-year quarterback Russell Wilson and wrecking-ball running back Marshawn Lynch, who is second in the league in rushing with 578 yards. Wilson has thrown for 11 touchdowns versus four interceptions while awaiting the return of marquee wide receiver Percy Harvin, who returned to practice this week after undergoing hip surgery in preseason. The Seahawks are tied for second in turnover differential at plus-7 and have forced at least two in each game.

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-4): St. Louis' modest two-game win streak came to a crashing halt last week at Carolina, a defeat magnified by the loss of Bradford. Clemens, a former second-round pick of the New York Jets who is in his third season with the Rams, has only 12 starts and 31 career appearances on his resume, posting a completion percentage of 51.8 and passer rating of 62.2. Clemens will be relying on a pair of the team's first-year players - wideout Tavon Austin leads all rookies with 29 receptions while running back Zac Stacy is averaging 70 yards rushing in his past three.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall.
* Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lynch has rushed for 100 yards in three straight against St. Louis.

2. The Rams are 30th in the league in rushing defense at 126.4 yards per game.

3. Wilson is seeking his sixth straight win against an NFC West opponent

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 28

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Tale of the Tape: Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
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The Kellen Clemens Era begins in St. Louis as the Rams entertain the Seattle Seahawks in a Monday nighter between NFC West foes.

The Seahawks come in tied with the New Orleans Saints for the best record in the conference, led by a formidable defense allowing just 16 points per game. Clemens gets the start after regular quarterback Sam Bradford suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Second-year quarterback Russell Wilson has bolstered the Seattle offense lately after opening the season with a thud. Seattle is averaging a modest 214 passing yards per game, but has 12 touchdowns and should receive a significant boost with the imminent return of star wide receiver Percy Harvin. The Seahawks have excelled in the running game, sitting among the league leaders with 154.4 yards per contest while racking up seven touchdowns on the ground.

For all the flak Bradford was taking from fans, he had actually guided the Rams to a passable aerial attack. St. Louis finds itself just below the middle of the pack in passing yards per game (228), but has 14 passing touchdowns against just four interceptions through its first seven games. The Rams are averaging just 70.6 rushing yards per contest, but are encouraged by the progress being made by first-year running back Zac Stacy.

Edge: Seattle


Defense

The vaunted Seattle defense doesn't do opposing offenses any favors, and Clemens should expect plenty of resistance Monday night. The Seahawks have limited the opposition to just under 92 rushing yards per game and four touchdowns on the ground, forcing six fumbles in the process. The pass defense has been even more sensational, ranking second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game (191) with six TDs against and 11 interceptions.

St. Louis once had a defense to be feared, but hasn't been able to live up to that reputation so far in 2013. The Rams are allowing 247 yards per game with 12 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The opposition's quarterback rating of 103.4 is among the worst in the NFL. Teams have also been able to run all over St. Louis, gashing it for better than 126 yards per outing with seven touchdowns.

Edge: Seattle


Special Teams

The Seahawks have one of the Top 10 kickoff return games in football, averaging 26.1 yards per attempt. The punt-return game is far less impressive; Seattle has run back six punts for a total of eight yards, easily the fewest in the NFL. Kicker Steven Hauschka has been one of the most accurate kickers in the league to date - connecting on 16-of-17 field-goal attempts - and made both of his kicks in last week's 34-22 triumph over the Arizona Cardinals.

St. Louis finds itself in the middle of the pack when it comes to kick return yardage, averaging 24 yards per attempt. Like the Seahawks, the Rams have been dreadful on punt returns, racking up just 31 yards on 15 attempts. Veteran kicker Greg Zuerlein is a perfect 11-for-11 on field-goal attempts in 2013, including makes for 28 and 42 yards in last weekend's 30-15 defeat at the hands of the Carolina Panthers.

Edge: Seattle


Notable Quotable

"I don't think he's better throwing the football or any of those things ... it's just his command of what we're asking him. He's just more comfortable. This is a kid that really can utilize a deeper understanding of what we're doing because he can act on it. I think, probably as much as anything, he's helping other guys play better around him." - Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll on Wilson

"I've been working on my pass-catching. It was kind of hard, coming in a loss, but it's still a good milestone. That touchdown in that game didn't mean a whole lot, but hopefully there will be more in my career that I'll be able to celebrate." - Stacy, who scored his first career receiving TD in the loss to Carolina.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, October 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:40 PM ET Seattle -13 500 POD # 1

St. Louis - Over 43.5 500 POD # 2


I just can't see taking the Rams Tonight no matter how many angles i looked up.....

Might be the same outcome as what the niners did to Jacksonville.....blow out....