The Bum's October College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/15/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/12/13 49-*43-*1 53.26% +*850 Detail
10/11/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/10/13 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/05/13 56-*43-*1 56.57% +*4350 Detail
10/04/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/03/13 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 115-*96-*2 54.50% +4700


Thursday, October 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 7:30 PM ET Miami -9.5 500 POD # 2

North Carolina - Under 63.5 500 POD # 1

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Central Florida at Louisville

October 17, 2013

In what is most likely the most difficult hurdle remaining on its cupcake schedule, Louisville (6-0 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) will take on Central Florida at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium this Friday.

As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Charlie Strong’s squad installed as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 53. Gamblers can take the Golden Knights on the money line for a +400 payout (risk $100 to win $400). For first-half wagers, U of L is favored by seven with a total of 27.

Louisville has won eight consecutive games dating back to last season, including last Thursday’s 24-10 non-covering triumph over Rutgers as a 19-point home ‘chalk.’ The 34 combined points easily stayed ‘under’ the 55.5-point total.

Junior quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 21-of-31 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. Bridgewater was playing without his leading receiver DaVante Parker, who was out with a shoulder injury.

Damian Copeland picked up the slack with a team-high eight receptions for 115 yards. Senorise Perry rushed 13 times for 104 yards and one touchdown.

Central Florida (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) has had two weeks to prep for this crucial AAC showdown. George O’Leary’s team failed to cover the number for the first time in its last contest, a 24-17 win at Memphis as a 9.5-point favorite.

Truth be told, UCF was fortunate to escape the Liberty Bowl with a victory. Trailing 17-10 with 2:05 remaining, RB Storm Johnson coughed up a fumble just as he was about to cross the goal line. Fortunately for the Knights, OT Chris Martin recovered the ball in the end zone for the tying score.

On the ensuing kick, Memphis fumbled and Drico Johnson scooped up the ball and returned it 12 yards for the go-ahead score. With the Tigers threatening to tie in the waning moments, UCF secured the victory thanks to Terrance Plummer’s second interception of the game.

Johnson ran for a team-high 86 yards on 16 carries. QB Blake Bortles had a shaky performance, connecting on just 17-of-36 throws for 160 yards and no TDs.

For the season, Bortles has completed 64.8 percent of his attempts for 1,334 yards with a 9/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Johnson has run for a team-high 455 yards and seven TDs, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Bridgewater has connected on 71.0 percent of his throws for 1,872 yards with an 18/2 TD-INT ratio. He got some good news Wednesday when Parker practiced and was upgraded to ‘probable.’ Parker has made 21 receptions for 375 yards and six TDs, while Copeland has hauled in 23 catches for 379 yards and three scores.

Perry has rushed for a team-high 402 yards and five TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC. The Cardinals are loaded in the backfield with three quality options. Dominique Brown has run for 271 yards and two TDs while also averaging 6.0 YPC, and Auburn transfer Michael Dyer has 43 carries for 220 yards and two TDs with a 5.1 YPC average.

Since Strong took over in 2010 after a long career as a defensive coordinator at several SEC schools, Louisville has compiled a 9-12 spread record as a home favorite. On O’Leary’s watch, UCF has posted an 18-15 spread record as a road underdog.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for U of L, 3-1 in its home games. The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for UCF, 2-1 in its road assignments.

These schools haven’t met since 1985 when Louisville captured a 42-21 home win in a pick ‘em matchup.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--California is the nation’s only school with a 0-6 spread record. In addition, the Bears are an atrocious 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs. They host Oregon St. this weekend as double-digit ‘dogs.

--Georgia RB Todd Gurley and safety Tray Matthews were downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Saturday’s game at Vanderbilt. Gurley will most likely miss his third straight game since spraining his ankle in a 44-41 home win over LSU.

--The ‘over’ is 6-0 for UGA, 4-2 for Vandy. The Commodores are 12-4 ATS at home under James Franklin.

--South Carolina leading WR Bruce Ellington is ‘questionable’ Saturday at Tennessee. Ellington strained his foot in last week’s 52-7 clubbing of Arkansas in Fayetteville. He was in a walking boot Monday and Tuesday but did practice on a limited basis Wednesday. The Gamecocks will get WR Shaq Roland back for the Vols after serving a three-game suspension.

--Shhh! Keep this a secret but South Carolina QB Connor Shaw is enjoying another outstanding season. He has 10 TD passes without throwing an interception. While the media keeps making a big deal out of Jadeveon Clowney doing or not doing this or that, Shaw and Mike Davis have led the Gamecocks to a 5-1 start with lots of winnable games in front of them. Check out my recent blog post on VI for some more thoughts on South Carolina and Stanford and their longshot future odds.

--The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 overall for Florida, 3-0 in its road assignments. The Gators are short favorites Saturday at Missouri with the total at 44.

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Friday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Central Florida +14 500 POD # 2


Louisville - Over 55.5 500 POD # 1

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ACC Report - Week 8

October 17, 2013

It will be all eyes on the Atlantic Coast Conference, or at least all eyes on Death Valley in the upstate of South Carolina, as Florida State and Clemson clash in a battle of Top 5 powers. The nation's showcase game features two of the ACC's unbeatens, and the winner will have a very good shot at a national title shot if they can run the table after Saturday's game.

The weekend in the ACC gets started early, as it is 'Zero Dark Thursday' in Chapel Hill. The North Carolina Tar Heels will be wearing a fancy black alternate uniform with matte helmets. It is uncertain if that will make any difference slowing down Miami, but it should be a good look on television. These uniform changes is a glorified fashion show for old-school fans, but
students
and recruits eat this kind of stuff up.

2013 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-3 1-2 4-2 2-4
Clemson 6-0 4-0 3-3 3-3
Duke 4-2 0-2 4-2 2-4
Florida State 5-0 3-0 4-1 5-0
Georgia Tech 3-3 2-2 3-3 3-3
Maryland 5-1 1-1 4-2 4-2
Miami (Fla.) 5-0 1-0 4-1 3-2
North Carolina 1-4 0-2 1-4 1-4
North Carolina State 3-3 0-3 3-3 1-5
Pittsburgh 3-2 2-2 2-3 3-2
Syracuse 3-3 1-1 4-2 3-3
Virginia 2-4 0-2 3-3 4-2
Virginia Tech 6-1 3-0 3-3-1 1-5-1
Wake Forest 3-3 1-2 2-4 1-5


Miami, Fl. at North Carolina (Thu. ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET)
As mentioned, it's 'Zero Dark Thursday' at Kenan Stadium, but the Tar Heels expected a lot better results by this point of the season for their national showcase game. Now, UNC is fighting just to get bowl eligible. Another loss, and they're really be up against it. The Hurricanes have covered nine of their past 11 games on the road, and they are 19-7 ATS in their past 26 games overall. And Miami is a whopping 14-2 ATS in their past 16 ACC games, and they're 4-0 ATS in their past four forays away from Sun Life Stadium. The Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS, and they have covered just two of their past seven against aa team with a winning record. They are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games at Kenan, but the last time they appeared on their home field, they were hammered by in-state rival East Carolina. The underdog is 7-1-1 in the past nine meetings in this series, and if UNC can find a way to slow down the 'Canes on defense, they could hang around and cover the eight-point number. But the Tar Heels have displayed very little reason to have any confidence that will happen. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four meetings in this series.

Syracuse at Georgia Tech (12:30 p.m. ET)
Syracuse had just 74 yards passing, two turnovers and just 15 first downs to 22 for NC State, but Syracuse came away with a 24-10 road victory for its first ACC win ever. The Orange completed five passes to wide receivers in the victory, and that comes one week after managing ZERO completions to wideouts in a loss to Clemson. The Orange offense is a mess, and there is little reason to believe they'll be able to do it with mirrors for a second straight week. Georgia Tech is a much better team than NC State. The Yellow Jackets failed to cover in a 38-20 loss at Brigham Young last week, their third straight non-cover after starting the year 3-0 ATS. However, their past three losses have all been against Virginia Tech, in a hard faught 17-10 game, then a loss at Miami in which they were in it until the very in, and the game in Provo. All quality opponents. Syracuse is a step down, and the Ramblin' Wreck should be able to get back on track.

Maryland at Wake Forest (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Terps scratched out a one-point win at home against Virginia, failing to cover the spread for the second consecutive game. The Deacs bounced NC State 28-13 in their last game Oct. 5, and the 'under' came through for the fifth time in six games. The Terrapins have covered six of their past eight games, but they are just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 ACC games. The Deacs are 1-8 ATS in their past nine games against a team with a winning record, and 2-7 ATS in their past nine games overall, but they are 5-1 ATS in their past six after a bye week, so they have that going for them. The good news for the Terps, and potentially for bettors, will be QB C.J. Brown (concussion) coming back from concussion. Head coach Randy Edsall says Brown is cleared to practice, and 'should' start. Check back just to be sure, as that makes a big difference in the potential result.

Duke at Virginia (3:30 p.m. ET)
The Blue Devils welcome back QB Anthony Boone (collarbone) from a broken collarbone, and he tossed a career-high 295 yards in last week's 35-7 victory against Navy. I can tell you first-hand, as I was at the game, that while Navy isn't particularly good on offense, especially when they get behind and have to go aerial, that the Duke defense looked much improved after a bye. Now, the Blue Devils step back into conference, and they look for their fifth victory in six tries against the Cavaliers. UVA ranks 13th in the ACC in scoring offense with just 22.3 points per game, and QB David Watford hasn't helped his own cause, tossing seven interceptions, which is second-most in the league. The Blue Devils are 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a losing home record, but they just 2-7 ATS in their past nine on the road overall, and 1-5 ATS in their past six ACC games. The Cavaliers are 2-9-1 ATS in their past 12 at Scott Stadium, and 4-10 ATS in the past 14 games at home against a team with a winning road record.

Florida State at Clemson (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Seminoles and Heisman Trophy hopeful QB Jameis Winston invade Death Valley, and they are a three-point favorite against the Tigers. He'll go head-to-head with QB Tajh Boyd, who needs just 164 passing yards to throw for 10,000 yards in his ACC career. The last time a team won with a freshman quarterback at Clemson was during the 2007 season. The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games overall and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 ACC games, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record. The Seminoles have covered just once in the past eight road games (at Pittsburgh earlier this season), and they are 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record. That might explain why the public is rolling to Clemson at nearly a two-to-one clip. The Seminoles are also 0-8 ATS in their past eight trips to Clemson and 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings with the Tigers overall. The home team is also 12-3 ATS in the past 15 meetings in this series.

Other Games
Old Dominion at Pittsburgh (7:00pm ET)

Byes
Boston College, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech

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Big Ten Report - Week 8

October 17, 2013

Week 7 of the Big Ten slate watched favorites go 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. The lone underdog to cash was Penn State (+2), who defeated Michigan 43-30 in the fourth overtime. Home teams went 3-1 and three of the margins were decided by double digits. Bettors watched the ‘over/under’ go 2-2.

2013 BIG TEN STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 3-2 0-1 3-2 3-2
Indiana 3-3 1-1 3-3 5-1
Iowa 4-2 1-1 3-3 4-2
Michigan 5-1 1-1 3-3 4-2
Michigan State 5-1 2-0 3-2-1 3-3
Minnesota 4-2 0-2 3-3 4-2
Nebraska 5-1 2-0 4-2 3-3
Northwestern 4-2 0-2 2-4 3-3
Ohio State 6-0 2-0 4-1-1 4-2
Penn State 4-2 1-1 3-3 4-2
Purdue 1-5 0-2 1-5 3-3
Wisconsin 4-2 2-1 5-0-1 2-4


Ohio State (-17, 55 ½) vs. Iowa (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
OSU is off of a well-deserved bye week after back-to-back hard-fought victories over Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Buckeyes return home Saturday as a heavy 2+ touchdown favorite when they take on the Hawkeyes. This is an intriguing matchup considering the Buckeyes have ridden a stout rushing attack the past two weeks (192 yards vs. Wisconsin & 248 yards vs. Northwestern) but now face an Iowa defense that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown and ranks 8th in rush yards allowed per game. OSU’s RB Hyde has now played three games since returning from suspension. He has 294 rushing yards (6.1 YPC average) and four total touchdowns. OSU’s rush defense will again be tested against Iowa’s power rushing scheme, but the Buckeyes have been great against the rush this year. They held Wisconsin and Northwestern – two prolific rushing teams – to just 198 combined rushing yards on 2.8 YPC. All signs indicate that if the Hawkeyes want a shot at winning this game, it will be on QB Rudock to expose this leaky OSU secondary. Rudock has 7 TD and 3 INT in his last four games but is far from elite. Still, the Bucks allowed 295 pass yards to Wisconsin two weeks ago and allowed Northwestern to complete 25-of-30 passes for 343 yards. Rudock and the rest of this offense used the bye week to sharpen things on offense after getting shutdown by Michigan State in their last game (264 total yards and 13 first downs) The Hawkeyes last won in Columbus in 1991 but are 7-2 ATS in their last seven games as a 15+ point underdog. OSU is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 as a favorite of 15+ or more.

Wisconsin (-12 ½, 55 ½) at Illinois (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Badgers played arguably their most complete game of the season in last week’s blowout of Northwestern. Granted they got a downtrodden opponent off of its own “Game of the Year” loss a week before, but it’s hard to imagine a more dominant performance by the Badgers. Defensively the Badgers held Northwestern without a touchdown and limited them to just 241 yards, 10 first downs, and 2-of-17 on 3rd down. Wisconsin now ranks 5th nationally in both total defense (267 YPG) and points per game allowed (13.2 PPG). The offense did its thing with 527 total yards including 286 rush yards – 172 from star RB Gordon returning from a minor knee injury. The Illini are off of a bye week after getting blasted by Nebraska two weeks ago. The Illini never really mounted a serious challenge against Nebraska last week. They fell behind 23-5 by halftime and the defense couldn’t come up with a timely stop of Nebraska. The Huskers ran for 335 yards on 50 carries and that prevented Illinois’ offense from ever getting into consistent rhythm. Illinois’ QB Scheelhaase remains a headache with just 136 passing yards (50%) with 0 TD and 1 INT and it seems the Illini will either get “great Scheelhaase” or “terrible Scheelhaase” with no in-between. Wisconsin has won three straight over Illinois each by double digits (12.6 points per game), but the Illini are 4-2 ATS in the last six vs. Wisconsin. Illinois is also 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog of 10+ points.

Michigan State (-26 ½, 42 ½) vs. Purdue (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Looks like Mark Dantonio has finally found himself an offense to go with the nation’s #1 defense. Sure Indiana’s defense isn’t the greatest barometer, but the Spartans have to be encouraged by what QB Cook and this offensive unit has done lately. MSU racked up 473 yards and 24 first downs in the 42-point outburst against Indiana last week – in an almost perfect balance of 238 rushing yards and 235 passing yards. Cool now has 9 TD and just 2 INT over the last four games and is gaining confidence by the week. Defensively the Spartans played arguably its toughest offensive matchup in Indiana. MSU allowed 28 points, but held IU to just 92 rush yards on 3.4 YPC average and held IU QB’s to 25-of-47 completions. The Spartans have only been a 26+ point Big Ten favorite twice since 1990, so that should tell you how poor Purdue is playing right now. The Boilers’ only win this season was a narrow 6-point escape over FCS Indiana State at home. Purdue has lost to five FBS opponents by an average of 28.2 points per game. Freshman QB Etling completed just 14-of-35 passes and led the team to 11 first downs in the 44-7 blowout loss at home to Nebraska last week. The Boilers' problems on offense clearly go beyond the quarterback position as Purdue didn't cross midfield until the fourth quarter last week against Nebraska. This is a bad football team. It ranks 121st in total offense, 120th in scoring offense, 82nd in total defense, and 116th in scoring defense. Purdue has only been a 26+ point underdog once since 1996 (2011 against Wisconsin – one of the best Big Ten offenses of all-time). Michigan State is 4-0 in the last four meetings with Purdue (2-1-1 ATS), but is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as a 20+ point Big Ten favorite.

Michigan (-7 ½, 67) vs. Indiana (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Michigan and Penn State battled through four overtimes before the winner was decided last week – and it wasn’t the Wolverines. The Wolves nearly pulled off another escape after a strong second half, but breakdowns in all three phases led to a crushing loss. The defense broke down at the end of regulation, the offense couldn't find the end zone in overtime and the normally reliable Brendan Gibbons missed three field goal attempts. Devin Gardner threw two more interceptions and Michigan mustered 149 rushing yards on just 2.8 YPC. The defense held the Nittany Lions to just 85 rush yards on 1.9 YPC, but allowed too many big plays in the passing game. After allowing 43 points to PSU in four overtimes, Michigan will have to bounce back quickly before the Wolves play the high-octane offense of Indiana. The Hoosiers offense saw more success against Michigan State’s vaunted defense than most opponents do, but the defense failed to show up again as the Hoosiers allowed 35+ points for the fourth time this season. The Spartans were able to churn out 238 rush yards on 5.1 YPC while QB Cook passed for 235 and two scores. The Hoosiers' quarterback situation took another turn as Tre Roberson outperformed Nate Sudfeld. Roberson is more of a dual-threat so expect coaches to at least get him a handful of touchdes throughout this game, especially if Sudfeld struggles. Indiana is just 1-32 all-time vs. Michigan and has lost 17 in a row. The Hoosiers have covered the last two meetings, losing by just 10 total points. The Hoosiers are just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games as a Big Ten road underdog of 7+ points.

Northwestern (-12, 53 ½) vs. Minnesota (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Northwestern clearly had a hangover from the Ohio State game as nothing went right for the Wildcats in Madison last week. Wisconsin held QB’s Siemian & Colter to just 17-of-39 completions and the rushing attack managed just 44 yards on 25 carries. The Wildcats were just 2-of-17 on 3rd downs, had just 10 first downs, and didn’t score a touchdown. Injuries are starting to become a concern for Pat Fitzgerald's crew, as Venric Mark (ankle) barely played and Kain Colter (ankle) didn't do much at quarterback. The good news is that OSU & Wisconsin aren’t in Northwestern’s division, so the Wildcats can still make some noise in the conference – starting with Minnesota this weekend. Adversity continues for the Gophers as head coach Jerry Kill has taken a leave of absence as he tries to get his epilepsy under control. Although Minnesota assistants and players know how to adjust without Kill, it doesn't make the situation much easier. On the field, Minnesota dropped its second consecutive game by double digits in its 29-point blowout loss at Michigan two weeks ago. The Gophers offense has managed just 446 total yards and 20 points over the last two weeks. That includes just 83 rush yards per game on 2.4 YPC. QB’s Philip Nelson and Mitch Leidner have been mediocre all season long. They’ve combined for just 3 TD and 5 INT through six games. The defense isn’t good enough to make up for the ineffectiveness. Minnesota has allowed its last three opponents to average 432.6 YPG and 30 PPG. Offensively Minnesota is averaging just 242 YPG and 10 PPG in Big Ten play. Northwestern has won five of the last six over Minnesota, including the last time in Evanston by 15 points.

Penn State - BYE
It’s hard to get a gauge on Penn State. Two weeks ago the Nittany Lions were blown out by Indiana by 20 points. Last week they outlasted the previously undefeated Michigan Wolverines in four overtimes. Head coach Bill O'Brien played to win while Michigan's coaches went conservative, and freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg rebounded from some mistakes to lead the game-tying touchdown drive at the end of regulation. Penn State gets a well-deserved week off before heading to Ohio State to see if it can pull off some more magic.

Nebraska - BYE
Nebraska handled its business against Purdue and for the third consecutive game won in blowout fashion. Backup quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. threw three interceptions and completed only six passes (thus resolving the “quarterback controversy” between him and the injured Taylor Martinez), but he had plenty of help from the run game that notched 251 yards on 56 carries. The defense once again took a step forward and this unit is gaining more and more confidence each week. The Huskers once again are off this week, which should allow top signal-caller Taylor Martinez to heal from his toe injury.

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Pac-12 Report - Week 8

October 17, 2013

The Pac-12 takes a backseat to the ACC in terms of marquee billing and game of the week, but not by much. We get a UCLA-Stanford matchup for the third time since November. This game lost a little bit of its luster when Stanford fell at Utah last weekend, but then again, that might make it that much more interesting, too.

And any college football fan cannot pass up a chance to check in on USC-Notre Dame, at least during commercials of the Florida State- Clemson tilt. The Trojans have turned it around since the firing of Lane Kiffin, and a battle in South Bend is just as intriguing as ever.

2013 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 3-2 0-2 2-3 2-3
Arizona State 4-2 2-1 3-3 5-1
California 1-5 0-3 0-6 3-2-1
Colorado 2-3 0-3 2-3 3-2
Oregon 6-0 3-0 6-0 4-2
Oregon State 5-1 3-0 3-3 5-1
Southern California 4-2 1-2 2-4 2-4
Stanford 5-1 3-1 2-4 4-2
UCLA 5-0 2-0 5-0 2-3
Utah 4-2 1-2 4-2 3-3
Washington 4-2 1-2 4-2 2-4
Washington State 4-3 2-2 5-2 3-3-1


UCLA at Stanford (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Bruins find themselves in the Top 10, and they are ranked higher (No. 9) in The Associated Press Top 25 poll than they have been since Oct. 30, 2005. QB Brett Hundley threw for a career-high 410 yards against California last weekend, and he might need a similar effort to take down the Cardinal. Stanford has won five straight games in this series. The Cardinal saw their 13-game winning streak snapped last week in Utah, but they still can protect a 12-game home winning streak this weekend. UCLA is 5-0 ATS in the past five games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference tilts. They're also 6-2 ATS in the past eight games against a team with a winning record. The Cardinals is 27-11-1 ATS in their past 39 games overall, and 19-8-1 ATS in the past 28 conference tilts. It's hard to see Stanford losing back-to-back games, but UCLA has looked awfully tough, and if you can get them at seven or more points, they might be a great play even though the Bruins are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Palo Alto.

Washington at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)
The Huskies hung around for a little while last week, but were eventually outclassed by Oregon, 45-24. It was the second straight loss for the Huskies, after losing a close one at Stanford in the previous week. A trip to Tempe is certainly no bargain either. While UW is 6-2 ATS in the past eight games against a team with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight conference games, they're just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 road contests, and 2-7 ATS in their past nine road games against a team with a winning home mark. AZ State is 5-1 ATS in the past six home games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 tilts. While they're 3-7 in their past 10 games against a team with a winning record, they are an impressive 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight home games against a team with a winning road record.

Southern California at Notre Dame (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
While this game doesn't have the same meaning as in years past, a win moves the winner to 5-2. That keeps the winner on track for a major bowl game, while the loser slips to 4-3 and they will struggle to just to turn in a winning season. The good news for USC is that they are expecting CB Anthony Brown (knee) back for the first time since Week 1. The bad news is that the Trojans have been blasted for 975 passing yards over the past two games, and with or without Brown, the Irish should look to exploit that. Neither team has been particularly good against the number, with USC going 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games against a team with winning record, and 0-9 ATS in their past nine road games. The Irish are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine home games, and 1-3-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams.

Utah at Arizona (10:00 p.m. ET)
Utah stunned Stanford at home, and now for an encore they hit the road for Arizona looking to slay the Wildcats. The key for the Utes will be getting WR Dres Anderson the ball. He has five receptions for 50 or more yards. And watch out for the Utes if they have the lead at halftime. They have won 49 straight games when leading at the break. For the Wildcats, QB B.J. Denker is coming off a strong performance, throwing for 363 yards and four scores against USC. However, the offense starts and stops with RB Ka'Deem Carey, who has eclipsed the century mark in eight straight games. Some might raise an eyebrow seeing the Utes as a four-point dog, but they are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six ACC games. Of course, Arizona is 2-5 ATS in their past seven, and 1-5 ATS in their past six in-conference games. Plus, the Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the past five home contests. Lastly, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.

Washington State at Oregon (10:00 p.m. ET)
The Cougars hit the road for Autzen Stadium, and they're staring a 39-point spread in the face. Washington State has covered seven of their past nine against teams with a winning record, and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight road battles. Of course, the Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a winning mark, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven in Eugene. And the Ducks are 18-7-3 ATS in the past 28 Pac-12 games, so all of these trends might be a wash. In addition, we have conflicting series trends, too. The home team has covered six of the past eight in this series, but the dog is also 7-3 ATS in the past 10. The 'over' might be the best play, and it usually is with the Ducks against anyone. The 'over' is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this series.

Oregon State at California (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m. ET)
After opening the season with a loss to FCS opponent Eastern Washington, it looked like doom and gloom in Corvallis. It has been anything but, as the Beavers haven't lost since. The black attack hits the road for Berkeley, and the Beavs are 7-2 ATS in the past nine road outings against a team with a losing home record. OSU is also 20-9-1 ATS in the past 30 road games. Cal has covered just eight of the past 28 games overall, and they are 5-16 ATS in the past 21 games against a team with a winning record. Cal has also failed to cover their past eight conference tilts, and they are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 at home. Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, and 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Cal. Plus, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings overall.

Other Games

Charleston Southern at Colorado (2:00pm ET)

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Top Matchups - Week 8

October 18, 2013


FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (5-0) at CLEMSON TIGERS (6-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -3(even) & 64.5
Opening & Total: Seminoles -3.5 & 64

In a showdown between the two ACC powerhouses, No. 3 Clemson will host No. 5 Florida State as a slight home underdog on Saturday night.

Florida State has looked absolutely dominant to start the year, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS while winning its games by an average margin of 41.6 points per game. Clemson, meanwhile, has gone 6-0 SU and 3-2-1 ATS and owns a marquee win, beating Georgia 38-35 in the first week of the season. Last season, Florida State won a 49-37 shootout between these two teams, but failed to cover the 14.5-point spread, giving the Tigers their fourth consecutive ATS victory against the Seminoles. In the last 10 meetings at Clemson, the two teams are 5-5 SU while the Tigers have covered in nine of those contests. Dabo Swinney is 25-12 ATS against ACC foes since taking over the reins at Clemson, while FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher is just 3-12 ATS after three consecutive SU wins since taking charge with the Seminoles.

Florida State ranks third nationally with 53.6 PPG and its defense also ranks third in FBS, giving up only 12.0 PPG. The 'Noles had off last weekend, and prior to that dominated Maryland 63-0. QB Jameis Winston is the star of the offense, completing 73.2% of his passes (90-of-123) for 1,441 yards while connecting for 17 touchdowns and only throwing two picks. He’s also a threat with his legs, running for two touchdowns and 135 yards on 36 carries. Devonta Freeman, though, leads the rushing attack with 54 carries for 385 yards (7.1 YPC) and three touchdowns. Karlos Williams (38 carries for 244 yards) is an important change-of-pace threat, adding six touchdowns on the ground. Winston has four receivers with at least three touchdown catches, led by Kenny Shaw (23 catches for 466 yards, 3 TD) and Rashad Greene (23 catches for 407 yards, 5 TD). The Seminoles defense is yielding a pithy 3.4 YPC and 5.8 yards per passing attempt, with opponents completing just 53.5% of their passes.

Clemson’s offense is led by one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in QB Tajh Boyd, who has completed 123-of-185 passes (66.5%) for 1,783 yards, 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has also run for five more touchdowns on 66 carries for 187 yards (2.8 YPC). One of the most impressive parts about the Clemson offense is its versatility with personnel as 11 players have already caught touchdown passes and a number of them have been from long distances. The biggest name to watch out for is Sammy Watkins (36 catches for 582 yards, 4 TD), who already has a 91-yard touchdown catch this season and has the speed and athleticism to be a threat on Sundays in the NFL. The running back to watch out for is Roderick McDowell (78 carries for 385 yards), but he has yet to find the end zone this season. Clemson’s defense, coming off a 24-14 win against Boston College, is giving up only 3.9 YPC on the ground this season while opponents have completed 56.0% of passes for 6.7 yards per attempt in the air.

USC TROJANS (4-2) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (4-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Notre Dame -3.5 & 51
Opening & Total: Irish -3 & 50.5

Both off to disappointing 4-2 starts, Notre Dame and USC will look to avoid another defeat as the two square off in South Bend on Saturday night.

The Fighting Irish are slight favorites in this one despite their recent struggles at home against USC, going 0-5 SU against the Trojans in South Bend since 2001. Last season when these two teams met, the Notre Dame defense dominated en route to a 22-13 road victory. This season, the Trojans are 2-4 ATS, but are 1-0 SU and ATS since interim head coach Ed Orgeron took over. That one game was a 38-31 win against Arizona last week as 5.5-point favorites. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is 1-4-1 ATS and coming off its lone ATS win of the season, a 37-34 victory against Arizona State as seven-point underdogs. A key player to watch for in this one is the health of USC star WR Marqise Lee, who missed the Arizona game and if healthy, is perhaps the most dynamic threat on either team in this contest.

While USC QB Max Wittek struggled against the Notre Dame defense last year, he’s no longer under center for the Trojans, as QB Cody Kessler now takes the snaps. Kessler has been far from dominant, but he has been serviceable while completing 60.4% of his passes (81-for-134) for 1,129 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He also has big-play capability with three touchdown passes of more than 60 yards, including a career-high 80-yarder to Lee, who leads the team with 30 catches for 385 yards. That was Lee’s lone touchdown of the year, however. On the ground, Tre Madden leads the way with 115 carries for 611 yards (5.3 YPC) and three touchdowns. He’s joined by Justin Davis (51 carries for 349 yards, 6 TD), who has more big-play capability. The Trojans rush defense has actually been quite good, giving up only 3.7 YPC, and the pass defense hasn’t been terrible either, giving up 6.3 yards per attempt with opponents completing just 56.8% of passes.

QB Tommy Rees (105-of-203) has had an up-and-down year for the Fighting Irish, completing only 51.7% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has now gone three consecutive games with completing fewer than 50% of his passes, with 6 TD and 4 INT in that span. The Notre Dame rushing attack is fine, but has just four scores all season, led by George Atkinson III (56 carries for 323 yards, 5.8 YPC) who has two touchdowns, including an 80-yarder. Rees’ main weapon in the air is TJ Jones (33 catches for 481 yards, 4 TD), while DaVaris Daniels and Troy Niklas also both have four touchdowns on the year, including receptions of more than 65 yards. Like USC, the Notre Dame defense has been surprisingly respectable, giving up 3.8 YPC and 6.4 yards per passing attempt on a 60% completion rate.

UCLA BRUINS (5-0) at STANFORD CARDINAL (5-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Stanford -5 & 54
Opening & Total: Cardinal -4.5 & 55

Brett Hundley and No. 9 UCLA look for payback after falling to the Cardinal twice last season, as it heads to Palo Alto to take on a No. 13 Stanford team reeling after a shocking loss at Utah.

These rival schools squared off in the 2012 regular-season finale and the Pac-12 championship, with Stanford winning both of those games by a combined score of 62-41. The Cardinal used a dominating rushing attack, averaging 195.5 YPG in the two matchups. However, much of that was on the legs of Stepfan Taylor, who is now playing for the Arizona Cardinals in the NFL. Stanford QB Kevin Hogan averaged only 157.5 yards in the team’s two matchups, and will be counted upon to try and match points with an explosive UCLA offense. But the offense was not the problem in the upset loss to Utah last week, as the usually outstanding Stanford defense gave up 410 yards to the Utes. That could be a bad sign for Saturday, as UCLA QB Brett Hundley is playing as well as any quarterback in the country. Hundley also guided the Bruins to 461 yards of offense in the Pac-12 title game last season against Stanford. Although the Cardinal are 19-8 ATS (71%) when playing on a Saturday under head coach David Shaw, UCLA benefits from the Cardinal being slow to bounce back from an upset loss, going 5-20 ATS (20%) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992.

UCLA head coach Jim Mora has changed the personality and the mindset of his program, which has emerged as a legitimate Pac-12 contender. The Bruins rank in the top-20 in both scoring offense (45.8 PPG, 7th in FBS) and defense (18.2 PPG, 19th in nation). Through the first five games, star QB Brett Hundley has accounted for 1,469 yards and 12 touchdowns through the air, while also rushing for 260 yards and three scores. With Johnathan Franklin now with the Green Bay Packers, the Bruins have gone to more of a running back by committee, and so far, the results have been great. Jordan James leads the team with 463 yards, but Hundley and Paul Perkins are both over 200 yards and are averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry. While the offense has stars like Hundley and WR Shaquille Evans, (289 rec. yards, 4 TD) it is the defense that has the Bruins thinking about a BCS Bowl. After starting his career as a running back, it became obvious that Anthony Barr would not see the field at that position. It was then decided that he would move to linebacker, where he is now widely considered to be the No. 2 defensive prospect in the country. Barr played very well in the two matchups against the Cardinal last season, finishing with 17 combined tackles in the two games. Stanford QB Kevin Hogan likes to use his feet and get to the outside, so look for Barr to spend a lot of time playing as a quarterback spy.

Stanford is coming off its first loss of the season, an absolute shocker against 7.5-point underdog Utah. The Cardinal have not lost back-to-back games since October 10 and 17 of 2009 though. Star WR Ty Montgomery once again was big on offense, grabbing eight catches for 131 against Utah and scoring on a kick return for the second straight game. The team has relied too heavily on Montgomery this season, as they would not have gotten by Washington the previous week if it wasn’t for his 99-yard kick return for a touchdown against the Huskies. The rushing offense began the season with 220 rushing YPG in the first four contests, but that number has dropped to 161 rushing YPG in the past two weeks. Senior RB Tyler Gaffney did rush for 108 yards on 16 carries (6.8 YPC) versus Utah and also scored his eighth touchdown of the year. However, whether or not the Cardinal win this game will lie squarely on the shoulder of the defense. UCLA has scored at least 34 points in every single game this season, and if that continues, it may be too much for Stanford to overcome.

IOWA HAWKEYES (4-2) at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (6-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Ohio State -18.5 & 55.5
Opening & Total: Buckeyes -17 & 55.5

After surviving its toughest two-game stretch of the season, No. 4 Ohio State looks to win its 19th straight game when it hosts an Iowa team that is playing much better football as of late.

These two teams have not faced each other since 2010, when the Buckeyes were able to pull out a very tough 20-17 victory over the Hawkeyes. There were grumbles in Columbus the past two weeks that maybe there needs to be a change at the quarterback position, but head coach Urban Meyer quickly squashed those thoughts, saying Braxton Miller is his guy. Miller has all of the talent in the world, but he seems to be off his game. His fumble early in the first quarter helped Northwestern score early, and two other turnovers in the game had Ohio State down 10 points midway through the third quarter. However, the Buckeyes went to their workhorse, RB Carlos Hyde, in the fourth quarter. After being suspended for the first three games, Hyde finally showed his talent, rushing for 168 yards and three touchdowns while single-handedly willing his team to the 40-30 victory. However, he will be going up against a defense that ranks 12th in the country by giving up only 16.8 PPG. The problem for the Hawkeyes has been their offense, mainly a passing attack that ranks 85th in the country with 209.3 YPG. Sophomore Jake Rudock has had his positive moments for the Hawkeyes, but his six interceptions have really hurt the team at the worst of times. As good as Ohio State has been this season on offense, its defense has really struggled. The Buckeyes are susceptible to the big play, and Rudock just has to be patient and let his running back Mark Weisman wear down the OSU defense.

Despite tallying just nine rushing yards against the Spartans, Weisman has been huge for the Hawkeyes this season. He currently has 624 rushing yards, and uses his 236-pound frame to physically and mentally wear down his opponents. While he is not likely to take the ball 70 yards, his ability to get five yards consistently sets the Hawkeyes up for a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Not only does he set up the run game, he allows Rudock to take some shots deep, namely to big-play WR Damond Powell. Despite having just six catches on the season, he is averaging 37.5 yards per catch with two touchdowns. His only reception on the road this year was a 74-yard touchdown, but he could be the sleeper player for both teams in this game. The Buckeyes have talent in that secondary, but are prone to staring at the quarterback. If that happens, Powell has the ability to get behind them and put six on the board. The main guy responsible for not letting that happen for the Buckeyes is CB Bradley Roby.

The junior cornerback has the ability to be a star, but inconsistency has really hurt him this season. He has two interceptions on the year, but must start making the simple play rather than going for the game-changer on every single pass. One thing he does do a very good job of is helping out against the run, as he has 27 tackles in five games this season. The Buckeyes have to limit the big play for the opposing team, but their offense is going to make a lot of big plays on their own. Through the first six games, Ohio State ranks sixth in the country in scoring with 46.8 PPG. While QB Kenny Guiton played outstanding in the absence of Miller, one thing is still very clear. If the Buckeyes are going to get where they want to be, Miller is going to be the guy that takes them there. Look for him to have a monster game in front of the Ohio State faithful.

LSU TIGERS (6-1) at OLE MISS REBELS (3-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: LSU -10 & 60
Opening & Total: Tigers -7.5 & 60

Ole Miss will look to snap its three-game losing streak, but the school has been tabbed as an underdog of more than a touchdown for Saturday's game hosting No. 6 LSU.

The Rebels retreated to 3-3 SU but improved to 3-3 ATS on Saturday, losing 41-38 to Texas A&M as seven-point underdogs. LSU’s one SU loss of the season came to Georgia, falling on the road 44-41 as three-point underdogs for the push. Since then, the Tigers have bounced back well with SU and ATS wins against Mississippi State and Florida, to move to 4-2-1 ATS this season. It’s worth noting, however, LSU head coach Les Miles is 5-14 ATS after covering in two consecutive games. Last year, Ole Miss easily covered a 19-point spread in a 41-35 loss to LSU in Baton Rouge, but could have won SU as well. The Rebels led in the fourth quarter, only to have the Tigers tie it on a punt return and then eventually take the lead with 15 seconds left. It was an ugly game for both quarterbacks with a combined five interceptions. In the past 10 meetings in Oxford, LSU is 6-4 SU while the teams have evenly split 5-5 ATS.

LSU QB Zach Mettenberger has been fantastic this season, completing 116-of-174 passes (67%) for 1,890 yards and 15 touchdowns with only two interceptions. Last week against Florida was his lowest passing output of the season, going just 9–of-17 for 152 yards and no touchdowns, but he also didn’t throw a pick, which was critical as the LSU defense shut the Gators down in a 17-6 victory. Last year against Ole Miss, Mettenberger completed 22-of-37 passes for 282 yards and didn’t find the end zone while throwing 2 INT. Mettenberger has two primary receiving threats in Odell Beckham (37 catches, 733 yards, 6 TD) and Jarvis Landry (46 catches, 674 yards, 7 TD). On the ground, Jeremy Hill leads the way with 98 carries for 715 yards (7.3 YPC) and 9 TD, including a season-high 68-yard touchdown scamper. The LSU defense is limiting opponents to 4.0 YPC and 6.6 yards per passing attempt, with opponents completing only 54.3% of their passes, but the ones that are completed go for an average of 12.2 yards per catch.

Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace had arguably his best game of the season last week against the Aggies, completing 22-of-36 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Overall this season he’s completing just 59.4% of his passes for 1,444 yards with 9 TD and 3 INT while getting sacked 13 times. He struggled mightily last year against LSU’s defense, completing 15-of-35 passes while getting picked off three times. He distributes the ball to more targets than Mettenberger, with four players having 199 yards receiving or more, led by Donte Moncrief (24 catches, 358 yards and 4 TD). Jeff Scott (53 carries, 434 yards, 2 TD) paces the rushing attack and is key for the offense when it wants to control time of possession. On the defensive end, the Rebels give up 4.6 YPC and 6.9 yards per passing attempt while opponents have completed 69.6% of their passes against them.

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Line Moves - Week 8

October 18, 2013


Week 7 Recap

Favorites: 3-7 ATS (8-2 SU)
Underdogs: 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU)
Totals: 1-1

The early bettors got beat up last week with early favorite leans, connecting at a 30 percent clip and two of the ‘chalk’ plays, Ohio and Colorado State, lost outright. While the favorites were subpar, the underdogs produced great results and big upsets. Missouri and Utah were both steamed early and they captured upsets against Georgia and Stanford respectively. The other winning ‘dog ticket was Florida Atlantic, who covered as a 10-point home underdog in its 23-20 loss to Marshall. Make a note that despite a 2-5 straight up (SU) record, the Owls are now 6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.

Week 8 Line Moves

CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 8 last Sunday. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.

Favorites

Michigan State vs. Purdue
Open: Spartans -24 ½
Friday: Spartans -28

Wisconsin at Illinois
Open: Badgers -11 ½
Friday: Badgers -14 ½

Fresno State vs. UNLV
Open: Bulldogs -20 ½
Friday: Bulldogs -25

Underdogs

Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Open: Chippewas +18 ½
Friday: Chippewas + 14 ½

West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Open: Mountaineers +9 ½
Friday: Mountaineers + 5 ½

Indiana at Michigan
Open: Hoosiers +12
Friday: Hoosiers +9

Georgia State at Texas State
Open: Panthers +19
Friday: Panthers +16

New Mexico State vs. Rice
Open: Aggies +20
Friday: Aggies +17

Week 8 Total Moves

CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Monday. Only two games saw significant movement and they're listed below.

Army at Temple
Open: 56 1/2
Friday: 60 1/2

Georgia State at Texas State
Open: 52
Friday: 48

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 8

Saturday, October 19

Purdue at Michigan State, 12:00 ET
Purdue: 10-24 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards
Michigan St: 12-3 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Southern Miss at East Carolina, 12:00 ET
Southern Miss: 27-12 ATS after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers
East Carolina: 2-11 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Florida State at Clemson, 8:00 ET
Florida St: 0-6 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Clemson: 9-2 ATS against conference opponents

Maryland at Wake Forest, 3:30 ET
Maryland: 0-7 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game
Wake Forest: 15-4 UNDER after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Texas Tech at West Virginia, 3:30 ET
Texas Tech: 2-9 ATS after playing a conference game
West Virginia: 7-0 ATS after being outrushed by 200 or more yards last game

Minnesota at Northwestern, 12:00 ET
Minnesota: 9-23 ATS in road games after playing their last game on the road
Northwestern: 8-1 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers

Navy at Toledo, 12:00 ET
Navy: 3-11 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games
Toledo: 21-8 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3

Connecticut at Cincinnati, 12:00 ET
Connecticut: 0-7 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
Cincinnati: 19-8 ATS in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in previous game

Auburn at Texas AM, 3:30 ET
Auburn: 30-50 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game
Texas AM: 31-16 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Washington State at Oregon, 10:00 ET
Washington St: 10-29 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Oregon: 8-1 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

Indiana at Michigan, 3:30 ET
Indiana: 9-2 OVER as an underdog
Michigan: 23-42 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Oregon State at California, 3:30 ET
Oregon St: 11-2 ATS off 3 or more consecutive overs
California: 0-9 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70

Iowa at Ohio State, 3:30 ET
Iowa: 24-11 UNDER in road games in games played on turf
Ohio State: 8-0 ATS in home games after a bye week

Arkansas at Alabama, 7:00 ET
Arkansas: 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Alabama: 11-2 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49

South Carolina at Tennessee, 12:00 ET
S Carolina: 15-3 ATS after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Tennessee: 0-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

North Texas at Louisiana Tech, 3:30 ET
North Texas: 17-33 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Louisiana Tech: 11-3 ATS as an underdog

LSU at Mississippi, 7:00 ET
LSU: 21-8 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Mississippi: 9-11 ATS against conference opponents

BYU at Houston, 3:30 ET
BYU: 7-0 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
Houston: 20-8 OVER off a home win against a conference rival

Iowa State at Baylor, 7:00 ET
Iowa State: 4-14 ATS in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival
Baylor: 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Oklahoma at Kansas, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma: 12-2 UNDER off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival
Kansas: 9-22 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31

TCU at Oklahoma State, 12:00 ET
TCU: 0-6 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Oklahoma St: 11-3 ATS as a home favorite

UCLA at Stanford, 3:30 ET
UCLA: 5-15 ATS in road games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals
Stanford: 19-8 ATS when playing on a Saturday

USC at Notre Dame, 7:30 ET
USC: 17-6 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs
Notre Dame: 25-44 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Nevada at Boise State, 8:00 ET
Nevada: 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63
Boise State: 19-6 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70

Wisconsin at Illinois, 8:00 ET
Wisconsin: 18-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Illinois: 8-21 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game

Georgia at Vanderbilt, 12:00 ET
Georgia: 15-5 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Vanderbilt: 17-32 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Saturday's games
Top 13 games

Home side won last six Florida State-Clemson games; Seminoles lost last five visits to Death Valley, and they were favored in three of five games. Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten series games. FSU scored 41+ points in all five games this year, scoring 41-48 in first two road games for frosh QB Winston, who is very good. Since 2008, Clemson is 1-3 as an home dog- their cover vs Georgia in season opener was its first as home dog since '07. FSU is 1-6 vs spread in last seven tries as a road favorite- they had last week off, while Clemson is playing for fifth week in a row.

West Virginia scored 42 points in last game as 29-point dogs and did not cover, losing 73-42 at Baylor; WV is 2-0 as home dog this year, 3-1 with Holgorsen as HC-- he was WR coach at Texas Tech when Kingsbury was Tech's QB; now he's Tech's coach. Mountaineers lost in Lubbock 49-14 (+3.5) LY, as Tech outgained them 676-408, going 33-43 for 508 passing yards. Red Raiders won 41-23/54-16 ion only road games this year, they're 13-3-1 in last 17 tries as road favorites. TCU was the only team to hold them under 33 points and 400 passing yards.

Texas A&M (-14) gained 671 TY and waxed Auburn 63-21 LY; Aggies are 4-3 as home favorites with Manziel at QB; they've scored 42-42-45-41 points in last four games, but they've allowed 33+ points in three of four games and gave up 28 to I-AA Sam Houston State. Auburn is 3-7 in last 10 games as road dog, covering 35-21 (+17) at LSU in only road tilt this year. QB Marshall sat out last week vs I-AA foe, is expected to go here; doubtful he is good enough passer to match points on road with a prolific A&M offense. Aggies are 14-10 as home favorites since '09.

South Carolina won its last three games with Tennessee by 3-11-14, as road team covered last three series games; Gamecocks split last four in Knoxville, winning 16-15/14-3; they beat Vols 38-35 at home LY, with total yardage in game 510-472. Carolina had allowed 25+ points in four straight games before crushing Arkansas 52-7 on road last week; SEC is 8-6-2 as road favorites under Spurrier. Tennessee lost three of last four games, giving up 59-31-34 points to three quality teams they've played. Vols are 2-9 as a home underdog the last 5+ years.

Washington comes off 45-24 home loss to Oregon last week, its biggest game of year; they've lost last seven games with Arizona State, dropping last four visits here, by 7-24-24-11 points. Huskies are 9-18 vs spread in last 27 tries as a road dog, covering 31-28 (+7) in tough loss at Stanford two weeks ago. ASU is +12 in turnovers in last seven series games; they scored 62-54 points in last two home games, are 6-2 as home favorites under Graham, 2-1 this year. U-Dub allowed 214.3 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. ASU had 536 rushing yards in its last two games.

Missouri is off to magical 6-0 start, scoring 38+ points in every game, but QB Franklin is now out for year so Tigers turn to redshirt freshman Mauk, who is making first college start here. Florida is 13-5 vs spread in last 18 games as a road favorite, 1-1 this year; they got upset at Miami, won 24-7 at Kentucky, lost 17-6 at LSU as they're playing their backup QB too, with Driskel hurt. Mizzou is 2-5 in last seven games as a road underdog; their schedule had been very easy until winning at banged-up Georgia last week. Tigers (+18) lost 14-7 in Gainesville LY.

LSU won nine of last 11 games with Ole Miss, winning last three in row by average score of 45-25; Tigers won five of last six visits here, winning four of five by 11+ points, going 2-2 as road favorite- they're on road for third time in four weeks, splitting pair at Georgia (L41-44), Miss State (W59-26). Rebels allowed 32.8 ppg in losing three of first four games in SEC; they allowed 30-41 points last two weeks and star DE Nkemdiche (leg) is out for this game. Since '09, Ole Miss is 4-8 as a home underdog, covering only try this year in 41-38 loss to Texas A&M last week.

Oklahoma State (-6.5) beat TCU 36-14 LY, outgaining Frogs 471-344, as Cowboys averaged just under 10 yards per pass attempt. State is 20-8-1 as a home favorite since '08, failing to cover in only such try this year (beat K-State 33-29, -13). TCU covered seven of last nine tries as a road underdog; they lost 20-10 at Texas Tech, 20-17 at Oklahoma in only two true road games this season, and also lost 37-27 to LSU in Dallas, kind of a home game for TCU but really a neutral site. OSU allowed 30-29 in last two games; 369 passing yards they gave up to UTSA is red flag.

Stanford won last five games with UCLA, with four wins by 8+; Bruins lost last three visits here by 3-26-8 points, in series where favorites are 6-2 vs spread in last eight meetings. 5-0 UCLA has wins at Nebraska and Utah this year, scoring 41-34 points; they're 3-0 as road dogs with Mora as HC. Cardinal got upset last wek at Utah, week after winning 31-28 at home over Washington; Stanford is 7-9 as home favorite since Shaw has been coach, 17-15 since Harbaugh turned program around. Last 3+ years, Cardinal is 1-3 vs spread in the game following a loss.

Notre Dame won two of last three games with USC; road team won last four series games (underdogs 3-1 vs spread). Trojans won last five visits here, scoring 31+ points in all five games, but they're 0-6 in last six tries as a road favorite. USC ran ball for 247-249 yards last two games, will be trying to keep its porous pass defense (allowed 351-363 passing yards last couple of games) off field. Irish gave up 35-34 points in last two games, beating Arizona State 37-34, same ASU squad that hung 62 on USC in Kiffin's last game. Irish are 7-10-3 as home favorite under Kelly.

Wisconsin won seven of last eight games with Illinois, winning three in a row, all by 10+ points; Badgers won three of last four visits here, with wins by 11-17-18 points. Illini allowed 34-39 points in its two games vs quality teams and also gave up 34 to I-AA SIU; they've covered five of last six tries as a home underdog. Wisconsin allowed 16 points in its four home wins, but gave up 32-31 points in losing both road games; Badgers is 5-7-1 as road favorites the last four years. Illini allowed 273-335 yards on ground in losses to Washington/Nebraska; Badgers will run it here.

Georgia played tough games with LSU-Tennessee-Mizzou the last three weeks, they're very banged up as they head to Nashville to play Vandy squad they've beaten 15 of last 16 times, winning last six in row, with three of last four wins by 24+ points. Dawgs won last eight visits here, but are 2-3 vs spread in last five; six of their last eight wins here were by 10+ points. Dawgs allowed 30+ points in five of six games; they're 0-2 as road favorites this year, after being 7-3 from '09-'12. Vandy is 4-2 as home underdogs under Franklin- they also had last week off.

Road team won both Utah-Arizona Pac-12 games, in series where faves are 1-5 vs spread in last six meetings. Utah is +11 in turnovers last four times they played Arizona; Utes won only road game 20-13 at BYU in rivalry game, then split tough home games with UCLA/Stanford- they're 5-4 in last nine tries as road dogs. Arizona allowed 31-38 points in losing first two Pac-12 games; they're 8-10 in last 18 games as home favorites, 3-4 under RichRod. Wildcats allowed 244-249 rushing yards in last two games; don't think Utes have running game to exploit that weakness.

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Saturday's games
Notes on rest of the games......

-- Duke lost five of last six visits to Virginia, with all five losses by 10+ points. Underdogs are 4-1-2 in Virginia's last seven ACC home games.
-- Temple won/covered its last five games with Army, with average score in last three meetings, 49-27. Cadets are 1-8 in last nine as a road dog.
-- Ohio won last five games vs Eastern Michigan (4-1 vs spread), which apparently had WR on its team murdered during the week. Bobcats won last two visits to Ypsilanti, 30-17/16-10.
-- Underdogs covered three of last four Ball St-Western Michigan games, with average total in last three, 65. Ball won last three visits here, with the wins by 5-4-3 points.

-- Home side won six of last seven Northern Illinois-Central Michigan gamesd; average total in last four is 71. Huskies lost last three visits here, by 7-14-25 points.
-- Underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten Purdue-Michigan State tilts; Spartans covered once in last five conference home games. Purdue is 4-3 in last seven games as Big Dozen road underdog.
-- Southern Mississippi is 0-17 SU since Larry Fedora left after going 12-2 in '11; they've been outscored 139-23 in three road games this year.
-- Home side won last six Maryland-Wake Forest games; Terps lost last three visits here, by 21-10-7 points. Wake is 6-2 in last eight games as an ACC home underdog.

-- Northwestern won five of last six games with Minnesota; underdogs are 4-1 in last five. Gophers lost first two conference games by 16-29, as coach Kill is away from the team so he can get healthy.
-- Navy won its first road game this year at Indiana, then lost last two at WKU//Duke by combined score of 54-14. Toledo scored 80 points and won/covered their first two home games this year.
-- Cincinnati is 7-2 in last nine games vs UConn, which lost last five here by 8-2-25-11-17 points. 0-5 Huskies already fired their coach- in its last two games, Huskies scored total of 22 points.
-- SMU beat Memphis 42-0/44-13 the last two years; Tigers are 1-4, scoring 17 or less points in all four losses. SMU lost its last three games, allowing an average of 48.3 ppg.

-- Favorites are 7-2 vs spread in last nine Colorado State-Wyoming tilts, with Cowboys winning last four. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in CSU's last eight visits to Laramie.
-- Michigan won its last ten games vs Indiana, going 1-3 vs spread when spread was less than 17. Hoosiers lost last five visits here, going 3-2 vs spread. Michigan covered last five as a double digit conferencwe fave.
-- Georgia Tech is 4-2-1 in last seven games as an ACC home favorite-- they lost last three games overall, allowing 100 points. Syracuse won its first-ever ACC road game last week, 24-10 at NC State (+5).
-- Oregon State won four of last five games with Cal; favorites are 11-3 vs spread in last 14 meetings. Beavers won LY's meeting 62-14, gaining 559 yards. Cal is 0-5 vs spread vs I-A teams, losing last four by 18+.

-- Ohio State won nine of last ten games with Iowa; favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in those games. Hawkeyes lost last five visits to Columbus, going 1-4 vs spread in those games.
-- Alabama won its last six games with Arkansas, covering four of last five vs Hogs; Razorbacks lost 38-14/35-7 in last two visits here- they've lost last three games, allowing 127 points in last three.
-- Louisiana Tech is 1-4 vs I-A teams, scoring 16 or less points in all four losses. North Texas is 0-3 on road, losing by 6-24-3 points- they scored 21 points in all three of their road games.
-- Kent (-10) beat South Alabama 33-25 in only meeting two years ago; Golden Flashes were outgained by 93 yards but were +3 in turnovers. USA covered its last four games, losing last two by total of 8 points.

-- Utah State lost three of last four games and is using backup QB with star QB Keeton out for year. New Mexico averaged 39 ppg in going 2-3 in last five games- you average 39 ppg and go 2-3, that not good.
-- Houston is one of 14 unbeaten teams in country; they're underdog for first time this year. Since '09, Cougars are 0-4 as home underdogs. BYU won its last three games, scoring 35.3 ppg.
-- Buffalo (-17) won 29-19 at UMass LY, outgaining UMass 405-264. Bulls won their last four games, scoring 116 points in last three. UMass scored 38 points in losing four of five games vs I-A teams.
-- Miami won its 11 of last 13 games with Akron; favorites are 7-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Zips were outgained 705-629 in 56-49 loss to Miami LY- they're 3-2 vs spread in last five games overall.

-- Oklahoma won its last eight games with Kansas, going 2-2 vs spread in last four; Sooners won last three visits here, 47-17/35-13/30-10. Kansas lost its first two conference games by 38-10 points.
-- 4-2 Rice won its last three games, but doesn't have win by more than nine points this season. New Mexico State is 1-5 vs spread this season, giving up 42+ points in every game but one this season.
-- Boise State won 12 of last 13 games with Nevada, but covered one of last six; Wolf Pack lost last seven games on blue turf, but coverd three in row. Nevada allowed 42+ points in four of six games this season.
-- UNLV has won four games in row for first time since 1984, despite allowing 79 points in its last two games. Fresno State has scored 41+ points in all five games, but three of their five wins are by 5 or less pts.

[StarDust Bum]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 8 of college football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Saturday's college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Northwestern. The Wildcats are 12-point home faves Saturday.

- Purdue ranks 119th out of 123 FBS teams in rushing offense, averaging only 77.8 yards.

- The Georgia Bulldogs have won 10 in a row at Vanderbilt Stadium and 17 of the last 18 meetings overall in the series.

- Southern Miss is riding a 17-game losing streak SU. The Golden Eagles are 4-13 ATS over that stretch of games. They are at East Carolina Saturday and are 22.5-point road dogs.

- The Texas Tech Red Raiders lead the nation in forcing three-and-outs (7.33 per game) and lead the Big 12 in third-down conversion defense (28.2 percent). Tech is a 5-point road fave at West Virginia Saturday.

- Cincinnati has scored a touchdown on 18-of-25 possessions in the red zone. The Bearcats host Connecticut Saturday. The Huskies are one of six schools to allow opponents to score on 100 percent of trips to the red zone.

- The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between South Carolina and Tennessee. The Gamecocks are 7.5-point road faves at Tennessee Saturday.

- The Under is 10-1 in Navy's last 11 games following a bye week. The Midshipmen are at Toledo with a total of 54.5.

- Southern Methodist is averaging 361.2 yards passing per game, which is seventh-best nationally.

- The Florida Gators lead the SEC in total defense, allowing an average of 235.3 yards. The Gators are 3-point road faves at Mizzou.

- Georgia Tech won the last meeting with Syracuse by a score of 51-14 back in 2004. The Jackets are favored by a touchdown this time around.

- The Akron Zips are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings at Miami (Ohio). The Zips are 7-point faves at the Redhawks Saturday.

- The Over is 6-1 in Eastern Michigan's previous seven home games. The total is 55 for EMU's meeting with Ohio Saturday.

- Temple is 5-0 both SU and ATS versus Army in the last five meetings. The Owls are 2.5-point home faves Saturday.

- The road team has covered in six of the last eight meetings between Ball State and Western Michigan. The Cardinals are 20-point road faves.

- The Colorado State Rams are just 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings at Wyoming. The Rams are 6.5-point road dogs Saturday.

- The Northern Illinois Huskies have reeled off 12-straight victories on the road. Their last loss was to Central Michigan in 2011. The Huskies are 15-road faves at Central Michigan.

- The Kent State Golden Flashes have been ATS road warriors of late, posting a record of 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Flashes are 7-point underdogs at South Alabama.

- The UCLA Bruins have lost five straight games to Stanford and are 1-4 ATS in those meetings. The Bruines are 4.5-point road dogs at Stanford Saturday.

- The Maryland Terrapins don't fare so well coming off of a bye week. The Terps are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a bye. They are 5-point road faves at Wake Forest.

- The UMass Minutemen are one of three teams (Ohio, Memphis) to have not played a game over the total this season. The Minutemen are in Buffalo with a total of 47.

- The Oklahoma Sooners are 14-0 under coach Bob Stoops - including a 6-0 mark against the Jayhawks - in the game after Texas with an average margin of 27 points. The Sooners are 22-point road faves at Kansas.

- Auburn has had a 100-yard rusher in five of its six games, including the last three. Texas A&M ranks 91st nationally allowing 193.4 rushing yards per game.

- Saturday marks the first meeting between BYU and Houston, but BYU is 6-1 versus AAC opposition.

- The Duke Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings against Virginia. Duke are 2.5-point road dogs Saturday.

- The Michigan Wolverines rank eight nationally allowing 89.5 rushing yards per game and has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season.

- Ohio State has dominated Iowa both SU and ATS recently. The Buckeyes have won three straight meetings and 11 of the last 12 while posting an ATS mark of 7-2-1 in the last 10.

- The North Texas Mean Green are 0-3 SU and ATS away from home this season and are 3.5-point faves at Louisiana Tech.

- Saturday's 67.5-point total in the Washington at Arizona State game marks the fourth time this season the Huskies will see a total of 60 points or higher. The Under is 3-0 in those three games - including last week's 75.5-point total versus Oregon.

- LSU and Ole Miss have played over the total in their last four meetings overall and the last four at Ole Miss. Saturday's total is 60 in this SEC tilt.

- Despite putting up a pedestrian (by their standards) 35 points one week ago at Kansas State, the Baylor Bears are currently seeing a total of 76.5 for their home game versus Iowa State Saturday. The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two programs.

- Alabama leads the all-time series against Arkansas 13-8, winning 52-0 in Fayetteville, Ark., last year. The Tide are 29-point faves at home this time around.

- At 4-1-1 ATS, Georgia State ranks 11th in ATS standings. The Panthers are 16-point road dogs at Texas State Saturday.

- USC has won five straight matchups at Notre Dame but is 3-2 ATS in those five games. The Irish are favored by a field goal Saturday.

- October is a scary month for Nevada backers. The Wolf Pack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven October games. They are 23-point road dogs at Boise State.

- The Over is 9-1 in the New Mexico State Aggies last 10 games overall. Saturday's total is 57 with Rice in town.

- Wisconsin is one of two teams (Florida State) to rank in the top 10 in total offense and total defense. The Badgers are ninth in total offense, fifth in total defense.

- No visiting team starting a freshman quarterback has won at Clemson since Tyrod Taylor and Virginia Tech in 2007. Florida State and its QB Jameis Winston will try to break that drought as a 3-point road fave.

- The Under is 7-0 in the Utah State Aggies last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The Aggies face the 2-4 New Mexico Lobos with a total of 52.

- The Fresno State Bulldogs are 13-0 under coach Tim DeRuyter when scoring 30 or more points in a game. They host the UNLV Rebels Saturday night, who rank 117th by allowing 41.8 points per game.

- The Oregon Ducks own the best ATS mark at 6-0 and are favored by 39.5 as they host Washington State.

- The Utah Utes have won 49 consecutive games when leading at halftime.

- The Oregon State Beavers are the top Covers consensus road pick on Saturday at 71 percent. The Beavers are 10.5-point road faves at Cal Saturday night.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Saturday's games
Notes on rest of the games......

-- Duke lost five of last six visits to Virginia, with all five losses by 10+ points. Underdogs are 4-1-2 in Virginia's last seven ACC home games.
-- Temple won/covered its last five games with Army, with average score in last three meetings, 49-27. Cadets are 1-8 in last nine as a road dog.
-- Ohio won last five games vs Eastern Michigan (4-1 vs spread), which apparently had WR on its team murdered during the week. Bobcats won last two visits to Ypsilanti, 30-17/16-10.
-- Underdogs covered three of last four Ball St-Western Michigan games, with average total in last three, 65. Ball won last three visits here, with the wins by 5-4-3 points.

-- Home side won six of last seven Northern Illinois-Central Michigan gamesd; average total in last four is 71. Huskies lost last three visits here, by 7-14-25 points.
-- Underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten Purdue-Michigan State tilts; Spartans covered once in last five conference home games. Purdue is 4-3 in last seven games as Big Dozen road underdog.
-- Southern Mississippi is 0-17 SU since Larry Fedora left after going 12-2 in '11; they've been outscored 139-23 in three road games this year.
-- Home side won last six Maryland-Wake Forest games; Terps lost last three visits here, by 21-10-7 points. Wake is 6-2 in last eight games as an ACC home underdog.

-- Northwestern won five of last six games with Minnesota; underdogs are 4-1 in last five. Gophers lost first two conference games by 16-29, as coach Kill is away from the team so he can get healthy.
-- Navy won its first road game this year at Indiana, then lost last two at WKU//Duke by combined score of 54-14. Toledo scored 80 points and won/covered their first two home games this year.
-- Cincinnati is 7-2 in last nine games vs UConn, which lost last five here by 8-2-25-11-17 points. 0-5 Huskies already fired their coach- in its last two games, Huskies scored total of 22 points.
-- SMU beat Memphis 42-0/44-13 the last two years; Tigers are 1-4, scoring 17 or less points in all four losses. SMU lost its last three games, allowing an average of 48.3 ppg.

-- Favorites are 7-2 vs spread in last nine Colorado State-Wyoming tilts, with Cowboys winning last four. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in CSU's last eight visits to Laramie.
-- Michigan won its last ten games vs Indiana, going 1-3 vs spread when spread was less than 17. Hoosiers lost last five visits here, going 3-2 vs spread. Michigan covered last five as a double digit conferencwe fave.
-- Georgia Tech is 4-2-1 in last seven games as an ACC home favorite-- they lost last three games overall, allowing 100 points. Syracuse won its first-ever ACC road game last week, 24-10 at NC State (+5).
-- Oregon State won four of last five games with Cal; favorites are 11-3 vs spread in last 14 meetings. Beavers won LY's meeting 62-14, gaining 559 yards. Cal is 0-5 vs spread vs I-A teams, losing last four by 18+.

-- Ohio State won nine of last ten games with Iowa; favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in those games. Hawkeyes lost last five visits to Columbus, going 1-4 vs spread in those games.
-- Alabama won its last six games with Arkansas, covering four of last five vs Hogs; Razorbacks lost 38-14/35-7 in last two visits here- they've lost last three games, allowing 127 points in last three.
-- Louisiana Tech is 1-4 vs I-A teams, scoring 16 or less points in all four losses. North Texas is 0-3 on road, losing by 6-24-3 points- they scored 21 points in all three of their road games.
-- Kent (-10) beat South Alabama 33-25 in only meeting two years ago; Golden Flashes were outgained by 93 yards but were +3 in turnovers. USA covered its last four games, losing last two by total of 8 points.

-- Utah State lost three of last four games and is using backup QB with star QB Keeton out for year. New Mexico averaged 39 ppg in going 2-3 in last five games- you average 39 ppg and go 2-3, that not good.
-- Houston is one of 14 unbeaten teams in country; they're underdog for first time this year. Since '09, Cougars are 0-4 as home underdogs. BYU won its last three games, scoring 35.3 ppg.
-- Buffalo (-17) won 29-19 at UMass LY, outgaining UMass 405-264. Bulls won their last four games, scoring 116 points in last three. UMass scored 38 points in losing four of five games vs I-A teams.
-- Miami won its 11 of last 13 games with Akron; favorites are 7-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Zips were outgained 705-629 in 56-49 loss to Miami LY- they're 3-2 vs spread in last five games overall.

-- Oklahoma won its last eight games with Kansas, going 2-2 vs spread in last four; Sooners won last three visits here, 47-17/35-13/30-10. Kansas lost its first two conference games by 38-10 points.
-- 4-2 Rice won its last three games, but doesn't have win by more than nine points this season. New Mexico State is 1-5 vs spread this season, giving up 42+ points in every game but one this season.
-- Boise State won 12 of last 13 games with Nevada, but covered one of last six; Wolf Pack lost last seven games on blue turf, but coverd three in row. Nevada allowed 42+ points in four of six games this season.
-- UNLV has won four games in row for first time since 1984, despite allowing 79 points in its last two games. Fresno State has scored 41+ points in all five games, but three of their five wins are by 5 or less pts.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 19

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Florida at Missouri: What bettors need to know
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Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (+3, 43.5)

Just when Missouri announced itself as a contender in the SEC, it lost its starting quarterback. The 14th-ranked Tigers will try to get by without James Franklin when they host No. 22 Florida on Saturday. Missouri picked up a signature win with a strong performance on both sides of the ball at Georgia last week but lost Franklin to a shoulder injury for at least three weeks, leaving the quarterback spot to Maty Mauk.

Mauk went 3-for-3 in backup duty in the 41-26 victory over Georgia but will be making his first start Saturday. The Gators own the fourth-ranked scoring defense in the nation but failed to get anything done on offense last week in a 17-6 setback at LSU. The Tigers are the lone team left in the SEC East still undefeated in the division, with Florida right behind them at 3-1 in conference play.

TV: 12:21 p.m. ET, ESPN3.

LINE: The Gators opened as 3-point road faves. The total opened at 44 and is down to 43.5.

WEATHER: There is a 29 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT FLORIDA (4-2, 3-1 SEC): The Gators will not have much sympathy for the Tigers and their quarterback loss because of their own set of injuries that ravaged the offense. Running back Matt Jones is the latest to go down after suffering a season-ending knee injury against LSU and will take his place on the sideline next to quarterback Jeff Driskel, who went down for the season on Sept. 21. Tyler Murphy took over for Driskel and was solid in his first two starts before struggling to 15-for-27 for 115 yards last week.

ABOUT MISSOURI (6-0, 2-0): The Tigers put together one of the top offenses in the country behind Franklin, putting up an average of 45.7 points and failing to top 40 only once. Missouri shocked the Bulldogs last week defensively as well, forcing four turnovers, and needs one more interception to double its total from last season (seven). Mauk was an All-American in high school and also starred in track and field, which should allow the Tigers to keep the running packages that made Franklin dangerous in place.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss.
* Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 7-2 in Gators last nine games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 11-2 in Tigers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Missouri has forced at least one turnover in 36 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation.

2. Florida leads the SEC in total defense, allowing an average of 235.3 yards.

3. The Tigers are looking for their first 7-0 start since 2010.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 19

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UCLA at Stanford: What bettors need to know
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UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-4.5, 53)

Unbeaten UCLA, ranked 10th nationally, has a chance to get itself into the national championship picture over the next two Saturdays but the visiting Bruins first must defeat No. 13 Stanford on Saturday. The Cardinal are in a must-win situation themselves after falling to Utah last week and can’t afford to drop two games in the loss column behind Oregon in the Pac-12 North. UCLA leads the Pac-12 South and visits the Ducks on Oct. 26.

Stanford defeated UCLA twice last season in a seven-day span – winning 35-17 at the Rose Bowl in the regular season before posting a 27-24 home win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Bruins are off to their first 5-0 start since winning the first eight games of the 2005 season. Cardinal coach David Shaw doesn't want the Utah loss – one that snapped the program’s 13-game winning streak – to be viewed as a season-changing defeat. “We’re still in a battle for our [division] to try to get to the conference championship game,” Shaw said.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2.

LINE: Stanford opened as a 6.5-point fave and is now -4.5. The total opened at 54 and is down to 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies over Stanford Stadium.

ABOUT UCLA (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12): Sophomore quarterback Brett Hundley is thriving with 1,469 yards and 12 touchdowns and his 410-yard effort in last week’s victory over California was the third-highest output in school history behind Cade McNown (513 in 1998) and Drew Olson (510 in 2005). Running back Jordon James (463 yards, five touchdowns) is averaging 6.3 yards per carry for an offense averaging 45.8 points and 547 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 18.2 points per game with outside linebacker Anthony Barr racking up 10 tackles for loss (including four sacks) and forcing three fumbles while defensive end Keenan Graham has recorded a team-high five sacks.

ABOUT STANFORD (5-1, 3-1 Pac-12): The loss to Utah marked the initial defeat in 11 career starts for quarterback Kevin Hogan, who has passed for 1,178 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. Tyler Gaffney (570 yards, seven touchdowns) has proven that giving up minor-league baseball to return to football was a good move, and Ty Montgomery (31 receptions, 514 yards) continues to be a force as both a receiver and returner – leading the nation with a 37.3 kickoff-return average. Defensive leader Shane Skov – an inside linebacker – has six tackles for loss among his team-high 52 stops and outside linebacker Trent Murphy leads the team with eight tackles for loss and five sacks.

TRENDS:

* Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Cardinal last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
* Cardinal are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Bruins lead the series 45-36-3, but have lost the last five meetings.

2. UCLA is outscoring its opponents 71-0 in the third quarter.

3. Stanford has nine three-and-out drives in its last two games after having a total of nine over its four contests.