The Bum's October College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

[Kaptain]

good luck today BUM.....I'm on 2 of those 3 POD plays........

awaiting the GOY....

[StarDust Bum]

Midday Games:

Eastern Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Army -7.5 500
Army - Under 57.5 500

South Carolina - 12:21 PM ET South Carolina -6 500
Arkansas - Under 51.5 500

Navy - 12:30 PM ET Duke -4.5 500
Duke - Over 56.5 500

Western Carolina - 2:00 PM ET Western Carolina +41.5 500
Auburn -

Central Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Ohio -19.5 500 POD # 5
Ohio - Under 54 500

Buffalo - 2:00 PM ET Buffalo -10 500 POD # 6
Western Michigan - Over 50.5 500

Miami (Ohio) - 3:00 PM ET Massachusetts -5.5 500 POD # 4
Massachusetts - Over 45.5 500

Kent State - 3:00 PM ET Ball State -14.5 500
Ball State - Over 62.5 500

Florida - 3:30 PM ET Florida +7.5 500 POD # 2
Louisiana State - Under 48.5 500

Virginia - 3:30 PM ET Maryland -5.5 500
Maryland - Under 43 500

Syracuse - 3:30 PM ET North Carolina State -6.5 500
North Carolina State - Over 53.5 500

Boston College - 3:30 PM ET Boston College +24 500
Clemson - Under 63.5 500

Troy - 3:30 PM ET Georgia State +16.5 500 POD # 7
Georgia State - Over 62 500

Baylor - 3:30 PM ET Baylor -18 500
Kansas State - Under 74.5 500

New Mexico - 3:30 PM ET Wyoming -14 500
Wyoming - Over 70 500

San Jose State - 3:30 PM ET Colorado State -3.5 500 POD # 1
Colorado State - Under 61 500

Northwestern - 3:30 PM ET Wisconsin -10.5 500 POD # 8
Wisconsin - Under 57 500

East Carolina - 3:30 PM ET Tulane +10.5 500 POD # 3
Tulane - Over 54.5 500


Late Afternoon Games:

Oregon - 4:00 PM ET Washington +14 500 POD # 4
Washington - Under 75 500

Rice - 4:00 PM ET Rice -1 500 POD # 1
Texas-San Antonio - Over 55 500

Marshall - 5:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +10.5 500
Florida Atlantic - Under 55 500

Akron - 5:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -24 500
Northern Illinois - Under 62 500

Michigan - 5:00 PM ET Penn State +2.5 500 POD # 2
Penn State - Under 49.5 500

Stanford - 6:00 PM ET Utah +8 500 POD # 3
Utah - Over 54 500

[StarDust Bum]

Evening and Late Evening Games:

PLUS MY GOY.....

Alabama - 7:00 PM ET Kentucky +27.5 500
Kentucky - Over 51.5 500

Middle Tennessee - 7:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee +7 500
North Texas - Over 53.5 500

Georgia Tech - 7:00 PM ET Brigham Young -7 500 ( G O Y )
Brigham Young - Under 53.5 500

Idaho - 7:00 PM ET Idaho +27 500
Arkansas State - Over 63.5 500

UL Monroe - 7:00 PM ET Texas State -6.5 500 POD # 5
Texas State - Under 45.5 500

Bowling Green - 7:30 PM ET Bowling Green +11.5 500
Mississippi State - Under 52 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 7:30 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham -6 500
Florida International - Under 53 500

Hawaii - 8:00 PM ET Hawaii +8.5 500
UNLV - Under 58 500

Tulsa - 8:00 PM ET Texas El Paso +10 500
Texas El Paso - Over 65.5 500

Boise State - 8:00 PM ET Boise State -6.5 500 POD # 3
Utah State - Over 50.5 500

Texas A&M - 8:30 PM ET Texas A&M -7 500
Mississippi - Over 79.5 500

Colorado - 10:00 PM ET Arizona State -29 500 POD # 2
Arizona State - Under 68.5 500

California - 10:30 PM ET California +25.5 500
UCLA - Under 74 500

Oregon State - 10:30 PM ET Washington State +1.5 500 POD # 4
Washington State - Over 62.5 500


GOOD LUCK ALL !!

[WThotrod]

I am on your GOY for $500. Good luck!!

[Udog]

There's only a couple of minutes left in your GOY and I think it's very safe to say it's another huge winner!!!! Thanks again, Bum! Way to go!

[StarDust Bum]

Now that was sweet......Now to work on tomorrow's card.....Hope all were on board...........

[yabmane]

Thanks Bum for GOY!

[StarDust Bum]

Waiting on Boise St. - Arizona St. and Washington St. to come in on a 4 team parlay now......to go along with BYU........

come on boys

[StarDust Bum]

OWELL....Those Beavers screwed up what would have been a awesome day.........

Better days to come.........yeeeeeeeeeeeeeee hawwwwwww

[Kaptain]

and yet another GOOD GOY call....great Job BUM....keep em coming, I'm a looking

[Udog]

What a day! My picks did really well and the picks I played from you, Kaptain and Raven all hit! WOW!!!! Let's do it again!

Thanks, everybody!!! What a great place to hang around!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF line watch: Florida State backers sit tight

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (-14)

There are a handful of games each week in which the only moves in one particular direction are going to come at the outset. Such as last week’s Hawaii-UNLV game, when the “sharps” moved the initial price in the Rebels’ direction, then watched as the public gradually shoved the line the other way the rest of the week.

This week’s example of a team “only the sharps could love” is troubled and winless UConn, which surprisingly generated enough early action at +16 for this Saturday’s American clash at Cincinnati that the price quickly dipped as low as 14 at many Nevada wagering outlets.

In truth, however, the burst of early Huskies’ money was probably more of a reaction to perceived overvalue on the part of Tommy Tuberville’s Cincy, which has dropped four of its last five against the spread after opening with a lopsided win over Purdue, a result that in retrospect perhaps distorted the perception of the Bearcats.

But Cincy’s failure to cover in three straight versus teams all winless at the time (Miami-Ohio, South Florida, and Temple) has understandably soured the marketplace (and, apparently, the sharp money) on the Bearcats.

We suspect the early move on this Saturday’s game was almost completely due to the growing anti-Cincinnati sentiment among the sharps.

The public money, however, might not share the same degree of misgiving about the Bearcats, and is instead more likely to react to the negative news surrounding UConn, which has not only changed coaches in midstream (Paul Pasqualoni out, o.c. T.J. Weist promoted to interim HC), but has also switched QBs.

Indeed, Weist’s first move was benching incumbent starter Chandler Whitmer and replacing him with true frosh Tim Boyle, who proceeded to complete only 15 of his 43 pass attempts in his first start last Saturday against USF.

Series trends between these sides also heavily favor the home team, which has covered seven of the last eight meetings.

The bottom line is that we foresee no further money moves in UConn’s direction. There are enough 14s currently posted at Las Vegas books for Cincy-inclined backers to take advantage ASAP at the current reduced price before the spread inevitably moves above that key number later in the week.


Spread to wait on

Florida State Seminoles (-3) at Clemson Tigers

It has been a while since the nation has been as transfixed upon an ACC gridiron battle as it will for this Saturday’s FSU at Clemson tussle. Expect action to be brisk at the Las Vegas sports books for this clash with not only ACC, but BCS and even Heisman Trophy ramifications.

Early movement in this price was hard to detect, but it’s what we didn’t see that caught our attention. Specifically, there was not enough appetite for the Seminoles among the sharps or the first wave of public money to move the price above the key number of FSU -3. In fact, for a short while there were a few stray 2.5s popping up in the marketplace, but for the most part there has been no early movement off of the key number of 3.

All of this is illuminating, suggesting the Tigers have earned a degree of respect in the marketplace. While Clemson’s spread form has been indifferent in recent weeks, and the Tigers were involved in an unexpected scrap last Saturday vs. Boston College, most of the public money will be recalling Clemson’s rousing opener against SEC rep Georgia, a game in which the Tigers prevailed in exciting fashion. Along with the Chick-fil-A Bowl win over LSU last New Year’s Eve, Dabo Swinney’s squad has been making a positive impression in recent high-profile games.

Indicators are that Seminole backers probably don’t have to worry about the price at Death Valley to rise above the key number of 3. But there figures to be ample opportunity to lay less than 3 as the week progresses, so we suggest that FSU backers ought to sit tight and wait for opportunities to play this game beneath a very key number later in the week.


Total to watch

Central Florida Knights at Louisville Cardinals

Though the totals market is generally a bit thinner than the straight-bet board, oddsmakers are nonetheless sensitive to those Over and Under trends as well. Most definitely, the books do not want to continue getting beat by the same totals trends, which the sharp money can ruthlessly capitalize upon.

Which is why the oddsmakers no longer waste any time with “soft totals” that can be moved quickly in one direction. The books usually have an idea in which direction the totals money is likely to flow, so they will adjust the prices almost from the outset.

Posting Oregon and Baylor totals into the stratosphere from the outset are examples this season of the books proactively protecting themselves from too much exposure on one side of the total wagers which are more likely to be exploited by sharp money.

Along that line of thought, oddsmakers know totals results patterns as well as pointspread result trends, and while we have not seen as many pronounced totals trends yet this season, a couple of the primo Under teams do get together on Friday night at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium as Louisville plays host to UCF in an American showdown.

No one needs to remind the books that the Cardinals are Under 5-1 this season, and the Knights are 4-1 to the Under as well.

Knowing that such trends can develop a quick following, don’t be surprised if the first total you see on ‘Ville-UCF is a bit lower than might be expected.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing college football games this week:

-- Florida State (-3) @ Clemson-- Top spot in ACC up for grabs.

-- South Carolina (-7.5) @ Tennessee-- Another road test for Spurrier.

-- Washington @ Arizona State (-3)-- Big game for bowl position.

-- Florida (-3) @ Missouri-- Both teams now playing their #2 QB.

-- UCLA @ Stanford (-5)-- Cardinal coming off upset loss at Utah.

-- USC (+3) @ Notre Dame-- Interesting test for depleted Trojans.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 7

October 14, 2013

Week 7 of the 2013 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the land and see how they fared from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1: Alabama (W-W vs. Kentucky 48-7)
Bama has now put up two straight great games, and it is starting to look like that game against LSU is the only one that could prove problematic this year.

2: Oregon (W-W vs. Washington 45-24)
The offense was slow at the start, but the Ducks got the job done to seize control of the Pac-12 North.

3: Clemson (W-L vs. Boston College 24-14)
The Tigers were pushed right off the bat, but they scored 14 in the fourth to avoid the upset against BC on the eve of the FSU game.

4: Ohio State (Bye)
In a week of carnage, the Buckeyes were off, and they have to be happy about that.

5: Stanford (L-L vs. Utah 27-21)
The Cardinal were always warned to be on upset alert, and they couldn't figure out how to beat the Utes in what probably will ruin their National Championship hopes.

6: Florida State (Bye)
The Noles probably learned a lot about Clemson watching Boston College challenge it for the full 60 minutes.

7: Georgia (L-L vs. Missouri 41-26)
In what might be the biggest shock of the weekend, the Dawgs were busted by Mizzou.

8: Louisville (W-L vs. Rutgers 24-10)
The Cards were really never figured to cover against the Scarlet Knights, but they had to be encouraged by all of the Top 25 losses around them.

9: Texas A&M (W-L vs. Ole Miss 41-38)
The Aggies had to hold on with everything that they had to stop the Rebs in Oxford.

10: LSU (W-W vs. Florida 17-6)
That LSU defense finally put forth a tremendous game, and if this unit can match the productivity of the offense, this team is a legit National Championship contender.

11: UCLA (W-W vs. Cal 37-10)
The Bruins defense deserves a lot of credit for holding the Golden Bears to just 10 points.

12: Oklahoma (L-L vs. Texas 36-20)
The Sooners were the only team that probably could have saved Mack Brown's job. They succeeded by losing by 16 as 14-point favorites.

13: Miami (Bye)
Thursday's game against North Carolina is one of the biggest in the ACC Coastal Division this year.

14: South Carolina (W-W vs. Arkansas 52-7)
In a week where SEC teams struggled big time, the Gamecocks figured out how to destroy Arkansas.

15: Baylor (W-L vs. Kansas State 35-25)
Baylor didn't figure out how to cover KSU, but at least it won the game on the road, something that a lot of teams weren't good enough to do this week.

16: Washington (L-L vs. Oregon 45-24)
U-Dub is still one of the best 25 teams in the land as we see it, but it isn't good enough to stick with Oregon or Stanford.

17: Florida (L-L vs. LSU 17-6)
The Gators lost to LSU this week, and they have games against Mizzou, Georgia, Vandy, South Carolina, and FSU still left. This could barely be a bowl team this year!

18: Michigan (L-L vs. Penn State 43-40)
It's amazing that it took four overtimes, but in the end, Michigan lost its perfect season against Penn State.

19: Northwestern (L-L vs. Wisconsin 35-6)
There's a reason that the Wildcats were double digit dogs on the road at Camp Randall.

20: Texas Tech (W-L vs. Iowa State 42-35)
The Red Raiders never trailed, but they were never covering against Iowa State either.

21: Fresno State (Bye)
No team did better with a bye this week than Fresno State, which really needs a lot of teams to lose in front of it to get into the BCS this year.

22: Oklahoma State (Bye)
The Pokes had a chance to get their feet back under them with a bye week, and the OU loss really puts the Big XII title right back into play.

23: Northern Illinois (W-L vs. Akron)
The Huskies were lucky to survive against the Zips, who have now challenged a pair of Top 25 teams this year.

24: Virginia Tech (W-W vs. Pittsburgh 19-9)
With six straight wins, the Hokies are once again in a position to win the ACC Coastal Division this year.

25: Missouri Tigers (W-W vs. Georgia 41-26)
The 'Zou is going to be wild next week when the Tigers get back home after the upset of Georgia, but losing QB James Franklin is going to hurt.

[StarDust Bum]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 7

October 15, 2013


Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the seventh weekend of college football, a wild weekend with many high ranking teams falling. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

San Diego State (-3½) 27, Air Force 20: Air Force looked on track for a home win Thursday night as the Falcons took a 20-6 lead late in the third quarter with a 71-yard pass play. San Diego State took control in the fourth quarter with two scores in just over three minutes early in the frame but with a blocked extra-point Air Force still held a 20-19 lead. Air Force could not get a first down as they tried to run out the clock and San Diego State put together a 13-play 77-yard drive to win, scoring with less than two minutes to go. In the final minute Air Force was down to the San Diego State 37 yard line but they came up short on 4th down and the Aztecs won their third straight game after a 0-3 start and Air Force blew a halftime lead for the third straight game.

Virginia Tech (-7) 19, Pittsburgh 9: While the closing line was just -7, Virginia Tech was favored by -9 or -9½ much of the week making the fourth quarter pretty interesting for those involved. The Hokies were dominant defensively in the game but the offense settled for field goals in many instances including failing to get in the end zone with 1st and goal late in the game. That field goal pushed the lead to 19-3 and Pittsburgh would score quickly, finding the end zone with about two minutes to go in the game. Down 19-9, Pittsburgh opted to go for two but they did not convert, leaving the margin at 10 instead of 8 in a play that would have flipped the result for many.

Massachusetts (-6½) 17, Miami, OH 10: In this battle of 0-5 teams the hosting Minutemen held a 14-10 lead entering the fourth quarter, short of the late week numbers as an opening line of -3 climbed throughout the week. An interception set up Massachusetts in Miami territory and it eventually paid off with a short field goal to move past the spread but there was still plenty of time left in the game. On the next drive Miami moved inside the Massachusetts 25 but on 4th and 7 and with still almost eight minutes to go the Redhawks went for it and failed. Miami would get the ball back at midfield with almost seven minutes to go after a short Massachusetts punt but the first play of the drive led to another interception. The score stayed put after Massachusetts missed a field goal and Miami could not seriously threaten on its last possession as the Minutemen won for the first time this season and held on for the favorite cover.

Texas A&M (-7) 41, Mississippi 38: Texas A&M led 21-10 well into the third quarter but Mississippi added a touchdown to get within four before a wild fourth quarter that featured 41 points. Mississippi eventually led by seven with just over six minutes to go but the Aggies answered to tie the game with just over three minutes to go. The Texas A&M defense held firm forcing a 3-and-out and Texas A&M was able to line up a game winning field goal as time expired to win by three but falling short of the spread.

Wyoming (-12) 38, New Mexico 31: Wyoming stormed out to a 21-0 lead against New Mexico but the Lobos climbed back into the game with a few big runs to only trail by seven entering the fourth quarter and the game was tied early in the fourth. With the help of an interception Wyoming scored two touchdowns in the span of less than two minutes on the game clock to move past the spread but with just over a minute to go the Lobos found the end zone for the backdoor cover.

LSU (-8) 17, Florida 6: Defense ruled the way in this big SEC clash as it was still LSU leading 14-3 after a scoreless third quarter. The Gators would hit an early field goal in the final frame to get within eight and pulling even with the closing spread. LSU answered with a field goal however and the next Florida drive stalled after getting down to the LSU 20, beset with penalties and then turning the ball over on downs after back-to-back sacks. The Tigers were able to do enough to run out the final four minutes, aided by a personal foul penalty.

Oregon (-12) 45, Washington 24: Washington fell behind 21-7 by halftime against Oregon but in the third quarter the Huskies climbed back into the game, trailing by just seven heading into the fourth quarter. Washington would only get two possessions in the fourth quarter as Oregon was able to put together long time-consuming drives and penalties were costly for Washington. Oregon put in two touchdowns in the fourth and could have had another as the game ended with the Ducks inside the 10.

UCLA (-26½) 37, California 10: UCLA led by just seven late in the second quarter against California but the Bruins added another touchdown right before the half. With a pair of short field goals in the third quarter UCLA was still short of the spread leading 30-10 entering the fourth quarter. The Bruins were able to sneak by the number with a touchdown pass with less than five minutes to go. Early in the fourth quarter the Bears were stuffed on four downs inside the UCLA 3-yard line and California also came up empty on a late drive inside the UCLA 15 as they likely deserved to avoid a now 0-6 ATS start to the season.

San Jose State (+3) 34, Colorado State 27: It was apparent early that this game was going to be a back-and-forth battle that would be decided late as there were eventually five ties and seven lead changes. Colorado State led by seven at the half but the Spartans moved back in front by three early in the fourth quarter. San Jose State hit a 62-yard pass play with about five minutes to go and that lead held up.

Arkansas State (-27) 48, Idaho 24: The Red Wolves dominated early and had a 31-7 lead into the third quarter before Idaho scored 17 consecutive points to trim the deficit to just seven points early in the fourth quarter. Arkansas State ended the drought with a 98-yard kickoff return and with 10 points in the final seven minutes the Red Wolves equaled the -24 spread that was available at times during the week before climbing to -27 by game time.

Penn State (+1) 43, Michigan 40: Penn State led 21-10 at the half but Michigan was up 34-24 early in the fourth quarter. Penn State eventually got the ball back with just 50 seconds to go down seven and they were able to deliver, highlighted by a spectacular 36-yard pass play down the sideline. Overtime seemed inevitable but Michigan was able to get off a long field goal try after a strong return. The 52-yard attempt was on line but fell just short. Four overtimes made this Big Ten clash an instant classic as both teams missed field goals in the first frame with Michigan's game-winning attempt blocked. Both kickers hit in the second overtime on short attempts and neither team scored in the third overtime as Penn State fumbled on its first play and Michigan kicker Brendan Gibbons missed from just 33 yards. Gibbons hit for three points with Michigan going first in the fourth overtime but Penn State was able to punch in the winning touchdown, aided by a pass interference penalty on the previous third down play and converting on a 4th down play earlier in the drive.

Houston (-8) 25, Memphis 15: Memphis led 15-10 late in the third quarter in this AAC clash but the Tigers were unable to hold a late lead for a big upset for a second straight week. Houston took the lead with a touchdown and 2-point conversion with less than two minutes to go in the third quarter and the Cougars added a rushing touchdown early in the fourth to move past the spread 25-15. Memphis reached midfield twice in the fourth quarter but they fumbled once and could not convert on fourth down in the final minute of the game.

UAB (-5½) 27, Florida International 24: The Blazers led by seven entering the fourth quarter after a once 21-7 lead tightened up. With less than three minutes to go Florida International tied the game but UAB put together a great final drive and eventually kicked the game winning field goal for the win but falling short of covering the spread.

Oregon State (-2½) 52, Washington State 24: Washington State led 24-17 with less than two minutes to go in the third quarter before Oregon State tied the game late in the third quarter. The Cougars botched a punt to give Oregon State the ball right back and they were up seven and past the spread early in the fourth quarter. The wheels fell off for Washington State in the fourth with five turnovers and Oregon State added three more touchdowns to create a bit of a deceptive final score in a game that was close much of the way.

Tulsa (-10) 34, UTEP 20: Tulsa led by 14 late in the third quarter but UTEP stayed in the game by connecting on a 71-pass play to get back within seven. Tulsa would move past the spread again early in the fourth quarter and the Tulsa defense saved the cover by getting an interception at the three yard line with less than two minutes to go.

UNLV (-7½) 39, Hawaii 37: Winless Hawaii has delivered some late game drama and last week's game at UNLV was no exception. UNLV led 36-17 well into the fourth quarter but Hawaii scored 21 points in less than seven minutes without the assistance of a turnover to take a one-point lead. UNLV was able to put together a long drive to get a chance to win and they were successful with a 44-yard field goal with a big face mask penalty on a 3rd down play being huge.