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ACC Report - Week 7

October 11, 2013


The Atlantic Coast Conference has one more weekend of marginal games before the much-anticipated heavyweight title fight between Florida State and Clemson in Death Valley. This week fans will have to settle for Pittsburgh-Virginia Tech and Boston College-Clemson to whet their whistle.

I'll be in attendance at the Navy-Duke game, and I am very curious to see how the triple-option of Navy can move the ball against the sieve-like defense of the Duke Blue Devils. It will be a game of contrasting styles. Enjoy the weekend!



2013 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-2 1-1 3-2 2-3

Clemson 5-0 3-0 3-2 3-2

Duke 3-2 0-2 3-2 2-3

Florida State 5-0 3-0 4-1 5-0

Georgia Tech 3-2 2-2 3-2 2-3

Maryland 4-1 0-1 4-1 3-2

Miami (Fla.) 5-0 1-0 4-1 3-2

North Carolina 1-4 0-2 1-4 1-4

North Carolina State 3-2 0-2 3-2 1-4

Pittsburgh 3-1 2-1 2-2 3-1

Syracuse 2-3 0-1 3-2 3-2

Virginia 2-3 0-1 2-3 3-2

Virginia Tech 5-1 2-0 2-3-1 1-4-1

Wake Forest 3-3 1-2 2-4 1-5



Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (ESPNU - 12:00 p.m. ET)
Did you know Pitt has covered in each of the past six meetings with Virginia Tech, including last season's 35-17 win? The Panthers have been hard to figure. They have won three games in a row straight-up, but they have alternated wins and losses against the spread (ATS) through their first four weeks. If you believe in crazy trends like that, they will fail to cover in Blacksburg. And the Panthers averaged 53.5 points per game (ppg) in two games against New Mexico and Duke from Sept. 14-21 before winning a 14-3 defensive battle against Virginia Sept. 28 before their bye. After starting the season 0-3-1 ATS, Virginia Tech has covered each of its past two, and they have rattled off five straight wins since their opening game loss against Alabama. The 'under' has also cashed in four of their past five.

Navy at Duke (12:30 p.m. ET)
If the trends hold up, this baby is going 'over'. In each of the past six meetings between Duke and Navy, the 'over' has cashed in each matchup. These two sides have met 39 previous times despite not being conference foes, and Navy leads the all-time series 20-14-5, with Duke winners in each of the past two. Navy looks to change all of that, and they are hopeful to get RB Geoffrey Whiteside (ankle) back after he missed the past two games. He'll help that old-school attack, led by dual-threat QB Keenan Reynolds. Navy's defense has actually been stout over the past three, but that was also against dregs Delaware, Western Kentucky and Air Force, not exactly the who's who of college football. When they faced Indiana Sept. 7, a team with a similar offensive attack to Duke, the Middies were involved in a 41-35 barn burner. Expect more of the same.

Virginia at Maryland (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Virginia slinks up to College Park after getting manhandled at home by Ball State last week, 48-27. Meanwhile, Maryland left CP feeling good about itself before last week's game, going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in their first four games. They return home, though, after an embarrassing 63-0 dismantling at the hands of Florida State. Both teams are on the rebound, and history says Virginia is the play here. However, hold everything. While UVA is 5-2 ATS in their past seven meetings with UMD, and the road team has cashed in each of the past four meetings, remember the Cavaliers are just 4-14-1 ATS in their past 19 overall, 2-8 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven away from Scott Stadium. Plus, the Wahoos are an awful 8-22 ATS in their past 30 against teams with a winning overall mark. The Terps have covered their past four at home, and they are 6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. And Maryland is 27-12 ATS in their past 39 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Syracuse at North Carolina State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
An amazing fact from last week's Syracuse-Clemson game: the Orange completed ZERO passes to their wide receivers. That tells you a little bit about how Syracuse's offense is in disarray right now. However, despite last week's non-cover, Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in their past nine games overall. Just the same, they're 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road games, including a non-cover at Northwestern earlier in the season. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. The Wolfpack were surprised in Wake Forest, although the numbers clearly pointed to the Deacs as the play there. NC State returns home where they are much better against the number, going 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 at Carter-Finley Stadium. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC games (last week being the loss), and a whopping 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games against a team with a losing road record.

Boston College at Clemson (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
As always, with Clemson, check the total first. This week it is set at 61.5 points, which seems a tad high at first glance. The under is 19-7-1 in Boston College's past 27 ACC games, 38-16-1 in their past 55 road games, and 37-16-1 in their past 54 overall. The under is also 20-6-1 in their past 27 against a team with a winning record. For all of Clemson's offense lately, the under is actually 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a winning record, and 5-2 in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is also 22-8 in Clemson's past 30 games in the month of October, for whatever that's worth. And the under is 4-0 in the past four meetings between these two sides in Death Valley, including a game I attended in person. That day it was a 36-14 Clemson romp, and expect a similar spread, and total. As far as the spread, BC is no pushover, but that 24-point number could easily be met. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Clemson, and 0-7 ATS in their past seven road games.

Georgia Tech at Brigham Young (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Georgia Tech looked to have their game in Miami covered, but a turn of events led to a Hurricanes cover and ATS loss for the Ramblin' Wreck. However, Ga. Tech is still 8-3 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on grass. And they have covered four of their past five following a straight-up loss. For BYU, they're a tough read. This team lost outright to Virginia, trounced Texas and Utah State, yet lost at home to Utah straight-up while entering as a seven-point favorite. They're 3-2 SU and ATS, and the only certainty is their defense, with the 'under' cashing in three straight, and four of their five. The 'under' has also come through in three of their past four for the Yellow Jackets.

Byes
Florida State, Miami (FL), North Carolina

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Pac-12 Report - Week 7

October 11, 2013


The Pac-12 has another full week of conference matchups, as the out-of-conference schedule isn't totally done, but will be a rarity from this point forward.

The highlight of this weekend's schedule will be Oregon-Washington, kicking off in Seattle at 1pm PT. The Huskies had a tough game last week in Stanford, and now have to play another elite team for a second straight week. Can they get it right this time around and throw a monkey wrench into the national championship picture?

Southern California kicked off the week's schedule with a win against Arizona. It started out looking like a blowout, but Rich Rodriguez's Wildcats came back to make it interesting, falling 38-31. USC bettors who felt good about their pick had heart failure near the end as Arizona nearly stormed all the way back.



2013 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 3-2 0-2 2-3 2-3

Arizona State 3-2 1-1 2-3 5-0

California 1-4 0-2 0-5 3-1-1

Colorado 2-2 0-2 2-2 3-1

Oregon 5-0 2-0 5-0 4-1

Oregon State 4-1 2-0 2-3 4-1

Southern California 4-2 1-2 2-4 2-4

Stanford 5-0 3-0 2-3 4-1

UCLA 4-0 1-0 4-0 2-2

Utah 3-2 0-2 3-2 3-2

Washington 4-1 1-1 4-1 2-3

Washington State 4-2 2-1 5-1 2-3-1



Oregon at Washington (FOX Sports 1, 4:00 p.m. ET)
The Ducks have been unflappable, pun totally intended, going 5-0 ATS in their past five matchups against teams with a winning record. Oregon is also 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road games, 13-3 ATS in their past 16 overall, and 15-5-2 ATS in their past 22 Pac-12 tilts. For Washington, they have been pretty solid themselves. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their past six, 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against teams with a winning road record, and an impressive 14-3 ATS in their past 17 home contests. We'll get a good feel on what each of these teams are made of when the dust settles Saturday afternoon. Is Oregon THAT good, or will they finally be in a fight for their lives? If so, how will they respond? Is Washington able to beat on the cupcakes, but a cupcake themselves when it comes to play a contender? We'll see.

Stanford at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Obviously there isn't a lot of history between these two teams, but one thing they have in common - the 'over' comes in frequently when they're on the field. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Stanford's past four, and 5-0 in their past five Pac-12 battles. The over is also 15-6-1 in their past 22 road games against a team with a winning home mark. For Utah, the 'over' in their past nine at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, and 5-2 in their past seven Pac-12 contests. The 'over' is also 7-3 in their past 10 overall. Some will likely want to go all-in on Stanford with the spread, too, as they are 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 Pac-12 games, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning record, while Utah is 1-4 ATS in their past five against a winning team, and 0-5 ATS in their past five Pac-12 tilts.

Colorado at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m. ET)
While the sample size in this series is small, you have to like Arizona State thanks to some key numbers. First off, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. Colorado is 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings. And Arizona State is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season, including a win last weekend in Dallas against Notre Dame, racking up another signature win in a schedule that has already featured the Irish, Stanford and Wisconsin. Needless to say, the Sun Devils are battle tested. The Buffaloes have been much better this season than their forgettable 2012 campaign, but they're starting to show some symptoms of last season now that the competition is getting more intense. CU is just 7-20 ATS in their past 27 conference games, and 7-20 ATS in their past 27 against winning teams. They have also covered just 16 of their past 52 away from Boulder.

Oregon State at Washington State (ESPNU, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The most important to know for this game is that the Beavers get RB Storm Woods (concussion) back from injury this week. He has missed time due to a concussion suffered in the Utah game earlier this season. With him out of the lineup, RB Terron Ward did an adequate job, but the offense was missing something. It will be whole again this week on the Palouse. QB Sean Mannion and WR Brandin Cooks might be the most impressive pass-catch combo in the nation. Washington State might not be totally back, but at least head coach Mike Leach has them more competitive than the past few years. The Cougs are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record. A win against Oregon State would be another brick in the wall as they build back toward being a contender. The 'over' has cashed in four of the past five meetings in Pullman.

California at UCLA (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Cal has been abysmal this season, and there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of hope as they head down to UCLA for what essentially will be another whipping. The Bears are a 25-point dog, and since they are 3-15 ATS in their past 18, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road contests, a cover might not be likely. They're also 0-7 ATS in their past seven conference tilts. UCLA is rest, coming off a bye, and they are 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven conference battles. The Bruins are also 9-4 ATS in their past 13 home games. This one has been a close shave in the past, but these two teams are far apart this season. This could be a laugher.

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Line Moves - Week 7

October 12, 2013

Week 6 Recap

Favorites: 5-2 ATS (6-1 SU)
Underdogs: N/A
Totals: 1-0

We only documented eight line moves last week and if you followed the early shifts, you would’ve produced a 6-2 record against the spread. Totals improved to 5-1 over the past two weeks.

Week 7 Line Moves

CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 7 last Sunday morning. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.

Favorites

Michigan State vs. Indiana
Open: Spartans -6
Friday: Spartans -10

Massachusetts vs. Miami, Ohio
Open: Minutemen -2 ½
Friday: Minutemen -5 ½

Buffalo at Western Michigan
Open: Bulls -7 ½
Friday: Bulls -11

Ohio vs. Central Michigan
Open: -10 ½
Friday: -18

Ball State vs. Kent State
Open: Cardinals -11
Friday: Cardinals -14

Wyoming vs. New Mexico
Open: Cowboys -10
Friday: Cowboys -1

Baylor at Kansas State
Open: Bears -10 ½
Friday: Bears -17

Colorado State vs. San Jose State
Open: PK
Friday: Rams -3 ½

BYU vs. Georgia Tech
Open: Cougars -4
Friday: Cougars -7

Arkansas State vs. Idaho
Open: Red Wolves -24
Friday: Red Wolves -27

Underdogs

Utah vs. Stanford
Open: Utes +10
Friday: Utes +7

Missouri at Georgia
Open: Tigers +11
Friday: Tigers +7

Florida Atlantic vs. Marshall
Open: Owls +13
Friday: Owls +10

Week 7 Total Moves

CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Monday. Only two games saw significant movement and they're listed below.

Texas A&M at Mississippi
Open: 75 ½
Friday: 79

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Saturday's Top Action

October 11, 2013

FLORIDA GATORS (4-1) at LSU TIGERS (5-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: LSU -7 & 48.5

Opening Line & Total: Tigers -7 & 48.5

Both looking to avoid a critical second loss on the season, SEC powerhouses No. 10 LSU and No. 17 Florida will square off in Baton Rouge on Saturday afternoon.

Florida is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS this season, but it has been a new season since Tyler Murphy took over for an injured Jeff Driskel at QB, with the Gators winning SU and ATS in both games since the switch. LSU is 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS, easily covering last week they scored 59 points while crushing Mississippi State by 33 points. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 45.5 PPG this season (9th in nation), though it may be difficult to replicate that against the Gators defense that ranks fourth in FBS with 12.2 PPG allowed. In an ugly slugfest last year, these two teams combined for only 437 yards of offense in a 14-6 Florida victory, with the Tigers entering the game as 1.5-point road favorites. The Gators have also historically had no trouble going to Baton Rouge, going 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings there. However, the last time LSU hosted in this series in 2011, The Tigers walked away with a 41-11 victory.

Junior QB Tyler Murphy has been a savior for this Florida team under center after Driskel's early struggles. Murphy has completed 72.2% of his passes for 530 yards in 2 1/2 games, throwing for five touchdowns with just one interception. Driskel had thrown three interceptions and only two touchdowns before suffering his season-ending broken tibia. Murphy has three main receiving threats in WRs Solomon Patton (19 catches for 348 yards, 4 TD), Trey Burton (23 catches for 282 yards, 1 TD) and Quinton Dunbar (18 catches for 274 yards). And on the ground, Will Muschamp splits the carries evenly between RBs Matt Jones (75 carries for 322 yards, 4.3 YPC, 2 TD) and Mack Brown (76 carries for 284 yards, 3.7 YPC, 3 TD). It's also been key that Murphy can use his legs, adding 24 carries for 135 yards (5.6 YPC) and two touchdowns to his passing total. Florida's stingy defense is strong against both the run and pass, limiting opponents to 2.8 YPC and 4.6 yards per pass attempt, with opponents completing just 46.4% of their passes.

The high-octane LSU offense is led by the steady play of QB Zach Mettenberger, who is completing 68.2% of his passes for 1,738 yards and 11.1 YPA this season. He has 15 touchdowns to only two interceptions, effectively using his 6-foot-5 frame to control the flow of the offense. He relies mostly on two receivers with more than 600 yards, while nobody else has more than 79. WR Odell Beckham (35 catches for 686 yards, 6 TD) leads the team in yardage while WR Jarvis Landry (42 catches for 616 yards, 7 TD) paces the team in receptions and scores. The offense isn't one-dimensional, however, with RB Jeremy Hill racking up 7.5 YPC on the ground on 79 touches for 593 yards and nine touchdowns. LSU's passing defense is giving up 6.9 yards per attempt while the front seven is allowing just 4.3 YPC on the ground.

OREGON DUCKS (5-0) at WASHINGTON HUSKIES (4-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -14.5 & 77
Opening Line & Total: Ducks -14 & 77

No. 2 Oregon will look to continue its hot start under first-year coach Mark Helfrich as it travels to Seattle to take on No. 16 Washington; a team that will be looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking 31-28 loss at No. 5 Stanford.

When these two teams met up in Eugene last year, things got ugly in a hurry as the Ducks gained 497 yards on offense as they cruised to a 52-21 victory. Last week, without top RB De'Anthony Thomas (ankle), the Oregon offense didn't miss a beat, as it piled up 755 yards in a 57-16 win at Colorado. The Ducks have been very impressive on the road in the past three years, winning their past 13 games (12-1 ATS) outside of Eugene. However, this could be the most difficult of those road contests, as they face an angry Washington team. The Huskies lost by three points in Palo Alto, but outgained the Cardinal by more than 200 yards and had a fourth-down catch get overturned that wound up being the difference. Washington has looked outstanding this season, in large part to the play of QB Keith Price. He has done a great job of not turning the ball over and shredding defenses with his pinpoint accuracy. Something will have to give in this game, as the Huskies have covered the spread in each of their past eight home games, and could shake up the Pac-12 in a big way with a victory in this game. However, Oregon is 9-0 SU (8-0-1 ATS) in the past nine meetings with Washington.

When Chip Kelly left, many people wondered if the country's most explosive offense had left with him. However, sophomore QB Marcus Mariota (14 pass TD, 0 INT, 7 rush TD) showed that not only would the Ducks have a great offense this season, it may be even better than it was last year. Through the first five games, the Ducks rank 2nd in the nation in scoring (59.2 PPG) and total offense (630.4 YPG), including 335.8 rushing YPG (3rd in FBS). They have done an outstanding job of getting up on their opponents early in the game, outscoring the opposition 111-24 in the first quarter. With the way the Ducks can put up huge points, these early leads have been demoralizing for their opponents. Byron Marshall filled in nicely for RB De'Anthony Thomas (338 rush yards, 8.0 YPC, 6 TD this year), rushing for 122 yards in the game, giving him 448 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC this year. Thomas, who rushed for 75 yards and touchdown in the win over the Huskies last year, is listed as questionable to return on Saturday. When Mariota (4 TD passes last year versus Washington) looks to throw, he mostly targets WRs Josh Huff (445 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Bralon Addison (345 rec. yards, 4 TD). As potent as the offense has been, it has been the play of the defense that has made the Ducks look like legitimate championship contenders this season. They currently rank 2nd in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 11.8 points per game. Put that into perspective, the Oregon offense has averaged 22.2 PPG in the first quarter, nearly double of what the defense allows per game. The Ducks defense has held opponents to just 4.1 yards per play, including 3.1 yards per carry this year. Junior DB Terrance Mitchell was huge for Oregon last week, as he had two interceptions in a dominating defensive performance. The Ducks now have 14 takeaways this season and an excellent +9 turnover margin. No disrespect to the Buffaloes, but the offense that the Ducks are going to be facing is much more potent than the one the Oregon defense saw last Saturday.

The Huskies offense was outstanding last week, putting up 489 total yards offense against Stanford, regarded as one of the best defenses in all of the country. However, the special teams really hurt the Huskies, allowing the Cardinal to take back the opening kickoff for a touchdown. QB Keith Price (1,394 pass yards, 8.7 YPA, 11 TD, 3 INT) was especially outstanding last week, throwing for 350 yards and two touchdowns. Now he needs to redeem himself after a dreadful performance in Eugene last year when he completed 19-of-31 passes for 145 yards (4.7 YPA), 0 TD and 2 INT. Star RB Bishop Sankey (732 rushing yards, 4th in nation; 8 total TD) helped complement the passing attack against Stanford with 125 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. His performance will be key to Washington controlling the clock and keeping Oregon's offense off the field, and Sankey showed that he could gain yards on this Ducks defense with 104 rushing yards and 2 TD on 25 carries in last year's meeting. The Washington defense has played well all season (14.8 PPG allowed, 14th in nation), especially last week when it held talented Stanford QB Kevin Hogan to just 100 yards passing, including an interception by DB Marcus Peters. The Huskies are holding opponents to just 287 total YPG and a meager 3.9 yards per play. While both of these defenses have been very good this season, expect both of these offenses to put a lot of points on the board in an exciting and very close game.

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (4-1) at OLE MISS REBELS (3-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas A&M -6.5 & 76
Opening Line & Total Aggies -6.5 & 76

No. 9 Texas A&M prepares for a high-scoring affair when it heads to Oxford as the road favorite over Ole Miss in a key SEC game.

Both of these teams are 2-3 ATS to start the year with Texas A&M covering in two of its past three games. The Aggies' dynamic offense averages 49.2 PPG, the fourth most in FBS, but the defense has be an issue, giving up 30.8 PPG (87th in nation). Ole Miss is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, as it was shut out by Alabama 25-0 and lost 30-22 as a two-point favorite to Auburn last week. The Rebels are giving up 25.2 PPG while scoring only 27.2 (85th in nation), but have played four of their first five games this year on the road. Last season, the Rebels were one of the few teams to actually figure out how to contain QB Johnny Manziel, holding A&M to a relatively meager 481 yards of offense and forcing six turnovers. Manziel needed two late TDs in that meeting to give the Aggies the win. In each of the four games in which Manziel has played completely this season, the Aggies have surpassed 40 points and 520 yards of total offense.

The Aggies rank sixth in FBS with 365 passing yards per game, and most of that credit goes to Manziel, who is completing 71.4% of his passes for 1,489 yards (10.6 YPA) this year. In 140 attempts he has only four interceptions while finding the end zone 14 times through the air. He has added three rushing touchdowns as the team's leading ball carrier with 314 yards on 48 attempts (6.5 YPC). In last year's win over Ole Miss, Manziel threw more picks (two) than touchdowns (one), but he still had 191 passing yards and 142 rushing yards. Joining him on the ground are RBs Ben Malena (57 carries for 303 yards, 7 TD) and Tra Carson (41 carries for 229 yards, 4 TD), who are effective weapons that give Manziel a much-needed break once in a while. Malena rumbled for 142 yards (7.9 YPC) and a touchdown last year versus the Rebels. Through the air, nine different Aggies have receiving touchdowns this season, but WR Mike Evans (28 catches for 691 yards, 5 TD) is by far Manziel's favorite target. He also has been able to find WRs Derel Walker (19 catches for 264 yards) and Malcome Kennedy (23 catches for 242 yards, 4 TD) when needed. Where A&M needs to step up its game is on the other side of the ball, giving up a whopping 6.1 YPC, which is 0.6 YPC more than they accumulate themselves. It doesn't get better against the pass where they surrender 7.1 yards per attempt.

Ole Miss junior QB Bo Wallace is nowhere near the type of weapon Manziel is, completing only 59.0% of his passes for 1,143 yards (6.9 YPA), 6 TD and 2 INT. During his team's two-game losing skid, Wallace has completed just 53.2% of his passes for 495 yards (6.3 YPA), 2 TD and 2 INT. He also didn't have a rushing score in either of those games while adding three of those in the first three games. In last year's loss to A&M, Wallace totaled 326 yards and two scores, but also threw two picks, including one returned for a touchdown just before halftime. RB Jeff Scott is the team's most dangerous weapon, averaging 8.7 YPC on 49 carries for 424 yards 2 TD. He'll have to carry the load against this weak Aggies defense and help control the clock by keeping the ball out of Manziel's hands. He was able to that last year with 108 yards on 21 carries (5.1 YPC) and a touchdown when he faced the Aggies. Wallace's top receiving options this year are WRs Donte Moncrief (23 catches for 355 yards, 4 TD) and Laquon Treadwell (24 catches for 250 yards). The Ole Miss defense has been better its its counterpart, but the numbers aren't great, giving up 4.4 YPC and 6.4 YPA. Notably, through the air, opponents are completing a whopping 67% of their passes, which must make Manziel happy going into this game.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (5-0) at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (3-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Michigan -3 & 51
Opening Line & Total: Wolverines -3 & 51

While it has not always been pretty for No. 18 Michigan this season, the team remains unbeaten as it travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State Saturday afternoon.

The Wolverines are a team still searching to find a true identity as we near the halfway point of the college football season. Junior QB Devin Gardner as been arguably the most polarizing player in college football this season. Against Notre Dame, he had moments where he looked to be a darkhorse Heisman trophy candidate with 376 total yards and 5 TD. However, in games against UConn and Akron in which Michigan failed to cover the spread, he threw 5 INT and only 2 TD. However, the team took a step in the right direction last Saturday by taking down Minnesota, 42-13. Penn State has had problems of its own, coming off a 20-point thrashing at the hands of underdog Indiana last Saturday. Last season, nobody had many expectations for the Nittany Lions, and they surprised a lot of people en route to an eight-win season. Heading into Saturday's game, they are the underdog, a situation in which they thrived in last season (3-1-1 ATS as an underdog). Penn State has won three straight meetings in this series, all by double-digits, but this will be the first game played between the two teams since 2010. The Nittany Lions are 10-2 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest over the past two seasons, but Wolverines head coach Brady Hoke is 14-4 ATS (78%) when facing a good team (60% to 75% win pct.).

While there is a lot of talent on the Wolverines football team, they are only going to be able to go as far as QB Devin Gardner takes them. He is a terrific athlete that can get out and make plays with his feet, but too many times he tries to squeeze the ball into a double-coverage, leading to his 8 TD and 8 INT this year. He needs to just stay within the offense, as RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (397 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 7 TD) is capable of carrying the ball 25-to-30 times a game. While he isn't blessed with elite speed, Toussaint is a very shift runner with the strength to run people over. When Gardner does drop back, he has talented receivers such as WRs Jeremy Gallon (367 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Devin Funchess (296 rec. yards, 2 TD) who tallied 151 receiving yards on seven catches last week. The Wolverines defense has been stellar this season, giving up just 19.4 points per game (27th in nation). DB Blake Countess showed big-play ability on the defensive side of the ball, taking an interception 72 yards for a touchdown in the win against the Golden Gophers. Look for the Wolverines defense (90 rush YPG, 3.1 YPC allowed) to really crank up the pressure (9 takeaways this year) and get after the Nittany Lions, as this is when Penn State has struggled the most on offense.

The win by Indiana last week marked its first-ever victory over Penn State in 17 matchups. The defense really struggled, giving up 486 yards, with 336 coming through the air. Freshman QB Christian Hackenberg (8 TD, 4 INT this year) had another good game for the Nittany Lions, throwing for 340 yards and three touchdowns, while not throwing a pick. WR Allen Robinson has been his favorite target all season with 621 yards and 5 TD, and he was stellar against Indiana, catching 12 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Robinson is a terrific receiver that has big-play ability, but is also fearless about going over the middle. This is always a heated matchup when these two teams play, and look for it to be the same again this season. The key will be which quarterback is able to withstand the pressure from the opposing defense. Penn State allows 20.4 PPG (31st in FBS) and like Michigan, is tough against the run (111 rushing YPG, 3.2 YPC). However, the Nittany Lions need to force more turnovers, having totaled just three takeaways in the past four weeks combined. This could be a huge step for the PSU program, as Michigan tries to compete for a Big Ten title, but the Nittany Lions are going to be extra motivated after last week's embarrassing loss.

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Florida at LSU

October 11, 2013

The stakes will be extremely high Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge where LSU and Florida will collide in an SEC showdown. The loser will essentially get knocked out of the national-title picture, while the winner will join Georgia with the nation’s most impressive resume for one-loss teams.

Most books have had LSU (5-1 straight up, 3-2-1 against the spread) favored by seven all week. On Friday morning, some spots reduced the number to 6.5. The total is 48. Gamblers can take the Gators on the money line for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240). For first-half wagers, LSU is a four-point favorite and the total is 24.

Florida (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) has won three straight games since suffering its only loss by a 21-16 count at Miami. The Gators are 3-0 in SEC play and have covered the spread in back-to-back outings.

Will Muschamp’s team beat Arkansas 30-10 last week as a 13.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 40 combined points hit right on the total for a push.

The Razorbacks had a first-and-goal opportunity in the final minute that could’ve changed the result for bets on both the side and total. However, UF’s defense got a fourth-down stop to secure the spread cover.

Florida junior quarterback Tyler Murphy enjoyed a third consecutive solid performance. He completed 16-of-22 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Solomon Patton had six receptions for 124 yards and two TDs, while Loucheiz Purifoy had a 42-yard interception return for a TD.

Murphy is third in the SEC in passing efficiency. He has a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has also run for a pair of scores.

Florida is second in the nation in total defense, allowing just 217 yards per game. The Gators are giving up only 12.2 points per game, but LSU undoubtedly has the most prolific offense they have seen so far.

Likewise, LSU will face the best defense it has seen in 2013. Zach Mettenberger is making himself a lot of money this year with his NFL stock rising with every performance. The senior signal caller has connected on 68.2 percent of his throws for 1,738 yards with a 15/2 TD-INT ratio.

Mettenberger has two of the SEC’s best wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. Beckham is tops in the SEC in all-purpose yards and third in receiving yards. He has made 35 receptions for 686 yards and six TDs. Landry has 42 catches for 616 yards and an SEC-best seven TDs, but he might not be at full speed vs. UF after being limited at practice this week due to a foot injury sustained at Mississippi St.

After missing a season-opening win over TCU due to a suspension, sophomore RB Jeremy Hill has been gashing opposing defenses. Hill has 594 rushing yards and nine TDs, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

LSU bounced back from a 44-41 loss at Georgia to smash Mississippi St. 59-26 as a seven-point road favorite. The Tigers broke open a tight game (31-26) in the fourth quarter by scoring 28 unanswered points.

Mettenberger threw for 340 yards and a pair of TDs, while Hill ran for 157 yards and two scores on just 16 carries. Kenny Hilliard added three rushing TDs and Beckham had nine receptions for 179 yards and two TDs.

Two defensive starters, safety Craig Loston and LB Tajh Jones, didn’t make the trip to Starkville due to injuries. Loston, a second-team All-SEC selection in 2012, is expected to start but Jones remains a game-time decision. UF is expected to get starting CB Marcus Roberson back after he missed three consecutive games.

The ‘under’ is 3-1-1 overall for the Gators, 2-0 in their road assignments. The ‘over’ has hit in all six of LSU’s games and this is the lowest total it had seen.

Florida has covered the spread in five of its last six trips to Tiger Stadium. The non-cover came two years ago when UF quarterbacks John Brantley and Jeff Driskel got injured in a loss to Alabama the previous week. True freshman Jacoby Brissett took his first career snaps in Baton Rouge and result was predictable, as LSU cruised to a 44-11 victory.

When these SEC rivals met at The Swamp in Gainesville last year, Florida captured a 14-6 win as a three-point home underdog. Mettenberger completed only 11-of-25 passes for 158 yards and was intercepted once. UF held LSU to just 1.7 yards per carry.

During Will Muschamp’s tenure, UF has compiled a 3-2 spread record in five games as a road underdog. On Les Miles’s watch, LSU has posted a 20-31-1 ATS mark in 52 games as a home favorite.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Florida has held 12 straight SEC opponents to 20 points or fewer.

--East Carolina RB Vintavious Cooper (concussion) is ‘doubtful’ Saturday at Tulane. Cooper has rushed for a team-high 382 yards and two TDs. He has also hauled in 22 catches for 186 yards.

--Since 2004, Northwestern owns a 12-4 spread record in 16 games as a road underdog. Since losing (but covering) to Missouri in the 2008 Alamo Bowl, the Wildcats have covered the number at a 6-2 ATS clip in eight games as double-digit underdogs. Coming off of last week’s crushing home loss (and crazy wrong-side winner) to Ohio St., Pat Fitzgerald’s team is a 10-point underdog at Wisconsin.

--Boise St. is 20-8 ATS as a road favorite since 2008. The Broncos are favored by 6.5 at Utah St., which won’t have star QB Chuckie Keeton for the rest of the season after he tore his ACL in a 31-14 home loss to BYU last week.

--The line for Georgia vs. Missouri moved down to seven late Friday afternoon. The Bulldogs were favored by 8.5 early in the week. They will be without their two best RBs unless Todd Gurley (‘doubtful’) makes a remarkable recovery in the next 18 hours and three of their top four wide receivers.

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Contenders to Watch

October 10, 2013


There is going to be a great deal of controversy as this regular season ends and teams jockey for the title game. I think as many as five or even six teams can be unbeaten after their regular season ends. Let's breakdown the heavyweights.

Alabama
The Tide play home vs. LSU on Nov. 9. This is the only opponent with the firepower to knock off the Tide. Alabama's remaining foes -- Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Chattanooga, and Auburn -- will be pounded by Tide.

Oregon
The Ducks are mighty on offense and QB Marcus Mariota is a super-weapon. Their defense is much improved but not enough to beat Alabama. They are in danger of losing to Washington this week. Stanford is another potential loss on Nov. 7 in Palo Alto. No other opponent has a chance to beat them.

Ohio State
The Buckeyes are not as talented as their 2002-2003 National Championship team. They are still excellent and as of today appear to be headed to a spotless record. Michigan will be overwhelmed by OSU's talent edge and fierce pass rush. Indiana will probably be a 27-point underdog on Nov. 23 in Columbus. The Hoosiers, because of their hurry-up style and smart QB, could make the Buckeyes work hard to win if OSU turns it over a few times.

Florida State
The Seminoles are coming together and have a week to rest before their showdown at Clemson. FSU will beat the stuffing out of the Tigers and coast home. NC State, Miami, Fl., Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho and Florida will all be helpless victims against the Seminoles. This team is capable of beating Alabama in the National Championship game. That is, if the Tide survives LSU and the potential rematch in the SEC Championship Game.

Stanford
The Cardinal have an NFL-caliber QB in Kevin Hogan. They also have a great coach and a high degree of overall talent. Their trip to Utah this weekend will be hard work as the Utes run well. Hogan's passing and the Cardinal's tremendous front seven will allow them to win going away, however. UCLA and Oregon State are the next two opponents/victims. A bye week follows. The fireworks then begin on Nov. 7, when Oregon visits Palo Alto. One of these teams will lose their undefeated status and a possible ticket to the title game in a rare Thursday matchup. I think Stanford's fundamentals will prevail, even if they go off as home underdogs. A trip to USC follows on Nov. 16. Although the Trojans are limp this year, wide receiver Marqise Lee is enough to scare any team. Stanford will still win. Arch-rival Cal visits Stanford on Nov. 23. Despite the emotion and animosity, Cal has no chance of winning. Finally, Notre Dame comes to town on Nov. 30. The Irish have the best three-down defensive line I have seen in many years and they will pressure Hogan. Stanford, probably a double-digit favorite in this tilt, will have to play sharply to survive.

Missouri
The Tigers have played a B-schedule so far and have beaten all five opponents by two touchdowns or more, due to the great play of QB James Franklin. They have the ability to beat UGA this weekend on the road and the line has already been bet down from 10 to 7 at most shots. This may be too tall an order but if the ball bounces the Tigers' way, they can do it. If they do pull off the shocker, a trip to the SEC title game is possible. Florida is next and they are mediocre at best without QB Driskel. South Carolina, who follows, is having trouble with their star DE and is starting to unravel. Tennessee is no competition. UK stinks. Mississippi is banged up. The season finale, Texas A&M, will be played in Columbia and Missouri can beat the Aggies, who have a poor defense that hides under Johnny Football’s headlines.

Fresno State
The Bulldogs, at 6-0, are very good. Their schedule has been somewhat light but they have obliterated their foes. They have a bye this week. Their next three games, UNLV, San Diego State and Nevada will all be wins with some degree of comfort. The matchup on Nov. 9 may be a problem as Fresno travels to Laramie for a battle with Wyoming. The Cowboys have two key factors working for them in this spot. One, War Memorial Stadium in Laramie stands at over 7,200 feet in elevation. That is the highest elevation of any stadium in college football. Fresno will have to adjust to the cold and thin air. Secondly, Wyoming has an equal to Carr at QB in Brett Smith. If Fresno State escapes Wyoming they will go undefeated as New Mexico and San Jose State are their last two opponents. A rematch against Boise State in the Mountain West Championship is expected and even if Fresno State does go 12-0, they have no chance of getting into the BCS championship game.

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Saturday's games
Notes on rest of the games......

-- Virginia Tech covered once in its last seven games as a home favorite; only twice in their last eight ACC home games have Hokies won by more than a FG.
-- Miami OH (-23) beat UMass 27-16 LY. This year, MAC favorites are 11-1 against spread, 4-1 at home.
-- Clemson covered six of last seven tries as an ACC home favorite. BC is 0-5 vs spread in last five games as an ACC road underdog. Eagles lost 36-14/35-7 in last two visits to Death Valley.
-- Western Michigan is 0-6, allowed average of 308.8 rushing yards per game over last four weeks. Over last decade, Buffalo is 1-0-1 as favorite on the road.

-- Central Michigan won four of last five games with Ohio; underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in last four meetings. Chippewas are already 0-3 as a road underdog this season.
-- MAC road underdogs are 11-14 vs spread out of conference. Army is 3-6 as a home favorite under Ellerson.
-- Underdogs covered six of last eight USF-UConn games, 4-0 vs spread at UConn. Last six series games were decided by 7 or less points.
-- Average total in last three Navy-Duke games: 75.3. ACC home faves are 9-6 vs spread out of conference. Duke covered its last five games as a home favorite.

-- Kent State lost 45-43/33-14 in last two visits to Ball State. Home side won last four series games; underdogs covered four of last six meetings.
-- Bowling Green lost 42-10 at Indiana in only game this year vs a BCS opponent. Falcon coach Clawson is familiar with SEC from his days as an assistant at Tennessee. SEC non-conference home favorites are 9-8.
-- Akron lost its last three visits to Northern Illinois by 42-14 average; Huskies covered five of last seven series games. Zips lost 43-3 at home last week, are 1-2 as road underdogs this season.
-- Favorites covered seven of last nine Iowa State-Texas Tech contests; State won last visit here, lost previous three by 25-31-12 points. Tech is 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite.

-- Rice (-2.5) beat UTSA 34-14 LY, running ball for 301 yards, C-USA home teams are 3-9 vs spread in league play, 2-4 if a home underdog.
-- New Mexico won five of last seven visits to Wyoming, which is 3-6 as a series favorite since 1999. Home teams are 3-8 vs spread in MW tilts, 2-3 when a home favorite.
-- ACC non-conference underdogs are 6-5 vs spread, 4-2 on road. BYU (+2) held Georgia Tech to 157 TY in easy 41-17 win in Atlanta LY.
-- First road game for Nebraska, which allowed 25.4 ppg in its first five games. Cornhuskers are 9-7-1 as road favorites under Pelini. Favorites covered six of first eight Big Dozen games.

-- Colorado gave up 101 points in losing last two games, by 44-17/57-16 scores. Pac-12 conference favorites are 9-3 vs spread, 5-3 at home.
-- Cal is 6-2-1 vs spread last nine times they were an underdog to UCLA team that won its first four games, with three wins by 20+ points. P-12 home favorites are 5-3 against the spread.
-- Third straight road game for East Carolina squad that won five in row, nine of last ten games vs Tulane- ECU won last two visits to Superdome by 28-23/28-24 scores. This is fifth year in row Pirates are double digit favorite against Tulane.
-- Alabama won last four games with Kentucky by average score: 32-17, but teams haven't met since '09. Wildcats are 1-4, but haven't lost game this season by more than 17 points.

-- Mountain West home teams are 3-8 vs spread, 2-3 if favored. San Jose State beat Colorado State last two years, 38-31/40-20. Spartans won at Hawai'i last week, are 2-1 on foreign soil this season.
-- Idaho is 1-5 this season with four losses by 32+ points. Sun Belt teams are 0-4 as non-conference favorites this season.
-- Since '08, NC State is 19-6-1 vs spread in game following a loss. ACC conference home teams are 11-4 vs spread, 7-1 if favored.
-- FIU won 24-23 at winless Southern Miss last week for first win after losing first four games by comnbined score of 187-23. UAB allowed an average of 47.3 ppg in losing its road games by 3-39-28 points.
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College football betting weather report: Saturday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

South Florida Bulls at UCONN Huskies (-3.5, 41)
Wind will blow across the field at 10 mph.


Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 57.5)
Site: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas
There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.


Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies (-8.5, 42.5)
There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast.


Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers (+14.5, 57)
There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.


Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (-24.5, 45)
Forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.


Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars (-9.5, 52.5)
Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms.


South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks (+5, 51)
Forecasts are calling for a 56 percent chance of thunderstorms.


Navy Midshipmen at Duke Blue Devils (-3, 57)
There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.


Buffalo Bulls at Western Michigan Broncos (+10.5, 51.5)
Forecasts are calling for a 45 percent chance of thunderstorms.


Virginia Cavaliers at Maryland Terrapins (-7, 43.5)
Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph and forecasts call for a 61 percent chance of rain.


Syracuse Orange at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-7, 54)
There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.


New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys (-14, 69.5)
Wind will blow toward the north end zone at 11 mph.


Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers (-10, 58)
Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph and there is a 30 percent chance of rain.


Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+13, 75)
The Forecast is calling for a 52 percent chance of rain.


Akron Zips at Northern Illinois Huskies (-23.5, 62)
Forecasts are calling for a 39 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.


Idaho Vandals at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-24.5, 61)
There is a 39 percent of rain in the early stages of this game.


Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at North Texas Mean Green (-6.5, 53.5)
There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.


UL Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats (-6.5, 45)
Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of rain.


UAB Blazers at FIU Golden Panthers (+7.5, 55)
Wind will blow toward the west endzone at 10 mph.


Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels (+6, 76)
There is a 32 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

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Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Week 7 of the college football schedule has plenty of marquee matchups on the board, and bettors have had their say about those games. We talk to sportsbooks about the biggest adjustments to the Week 7 odds and where those line will end up come kickoff Saturday:

Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs – Open: -9.5, Move: -7

Some markets have trimmed this SEC spread as many as 2.5 points heading into the weekend. Georgia has a long list of injuries to deal with and sharp bettors are buying up the Tigers, however, with the spread dropping to a touchdown, money is showing up on UGA.

“On Tuesday, we got sharp bet on the dog, so moved to 9. Then another wiseguy played Missouri, so moved to 8,” says Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com. “So far 55 percent of the money is on Missouri.”

South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks – Open: +6, Move: +5

There’s a dark cloud hanging over South Carolina, with star defensive stopper Jadaveon Clowney at odds with head coach Steve Spurrier after missing last week with an “injury”. The Razorbacks haven’t been at their best but welcome a huge crowd for homecoming Saturday.

“Not the biggest of movers but an interesting matchup,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “Action is pretty split on this one. On paper and stats wise, it looks like an easy play on South Carolina. But this is a tough game to call.”

Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats – Open: -17, Move -19

Baylor has been the popular choice with the public the past few weeks and has once again swayed one-sided money on its weekend game, with 93 percent of the handle on the Bears. This one could keep going up once the public has its say on Saturday.

“The Bears have been one of the top five wagered-on teams each week they have played this season and it makes sense,” says Perry. “After all, dating back to 2012, the Bears have covered 10 straight games.”

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels – Open: +5, Move: +6

The Aggies are always a popular play among bettors each Saturday and are coming off a bye week. Texas A&M’s defense is the biggest question mark, but the early money is banking on an improvement in Oxford.

“Should be a very entertaining game, lots of scoring expected with the weeks highest number 76 on the board,” says Black. “The action is all over the Aggies, by a fair margin, so an Ole Miss cover is what we’re looking for. Even with the 76 total, we see mainly Overs.”

Virginia Cavaliers at Maryland Terrapins – Open: -6, Move: -7.5

According to Perry, this game opened too low with oddsmakers downgrading the Terrapins following their loss to Florida State. That attracted early wiseguy action on Maryland.

“Wiseguys think the line was too low, as just a few hours after we went live, we got sharp action on the Terps,” says Perry. “About 91 percent of the money is on Maryland.”

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Essential betting tidbits for Week 7 of college football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Saturday's college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The UConn Huskies will have a new coach patrolling the sidelines. T.J. Weist takes over as interim head coach following the dismissal of Paul Pasqualoni after a 41-12 loss to Buffalo. The Huskies are 4.5-point home faves against USF Saturday.

- The Missouri Tigers make their first trip to Athens, Georgia to face the Bulldogs. The two programs faced off last season at Missouri with Georgia prevailing 41-20. The Bulldogs are 7.5-point home faves.

- The Michigan State Spartans get a home game versus Big Ten rival Indiana, but the Spartans are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Michigan State is a 9.5-point home fave Saturday.

- The Red River Rivalry has been a shootout of late. The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are 4-1 O/U in their last five meetings and have combined to average 62.6 points per game in that stretch. Saturday's total is currently 57.5.

- The Virginia Tech Hokies boast the fifth-best defense in the country, allowing just 263.7 yards per game.

- The Pitt Panthers are at Virginia Tech to test that stingy defense. Pitt features the ACC's best WR tandem in Devin Street (111.3 ypg) and Tyler Boyd (106.3 ypg). The Hokies are 8.5-point home faves.

- Nebraska travels to face the Purdue Boilermakers and their porous defense. Purdue ranks 110th in the country allowing 36.6 points per game and is a 16.5-point home dog.

- The TCU Horned Frogs are 60-11 overall under head coach Gary Patterson at Amon G. Carter Stadium. TCU is favored by 24.5 at home versus Kansas Saturday.

- The Houston Cougars are one of three schools (Baylor, UCLA) with perfect 4-0 ATS records. Only Oregon at 5-0 ATS is better.

- Army is second last in the country with 429 passing yards on the season. Only New Mexico (380 yards) has fewer. The Black Knights are 7.5-point home faves against Eastern Michigan.

- Iowa State is one of four schools in the country (along with Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama) with a road win against a ranked opponent in each of the past three seasons. The Cyclones are 14-point dogs at No. 21 Texas Tech.

- The Arkansas Razorbacks have defeated South Carolina the previous three meetings at Razorback Stadium. They are also 3-0 ATS in those three home games. The Razorbacks are 5-point home dogs Saturday.

- The Duke Blue Devils are 3-0 ATS in their past three meetings with Navy. Duke is favored by a field goal at home Saturday.

- The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Ohio Bobcats. The Bobcats are 18.5-point home faves.

- Things haven't well for Western Michigan and its backers against fellow MAC opponents. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.

- Massachusetts! Miami (Ohio)! It's the two lowest scoring teams in the country! The Red Hawks rank second-last in the country averaging 8.8 ppg. The Minutemen are last with 7.0 ppg. Saturday's total is 44.5.

- Home team is 4-0 in the previous four meetings between Ball State and Kent State. Ball State is a 14.5-point home fave Saturday.

- LSU and Troy lead the over/under standings with 6-0 O/U records. Troy visits Georgia State Saturday with a total of 63.5.

- Baylor leads the nation in scoring averaging 70.5 ppg. The Bears are 17-point road faves at Kansas State and the total is 73.5.

- The Florida Gators have cashed in for backers when they play at LSU. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings in Baton Rouge. Florida is a 7-point dog Saturday.

- Maryland was throttled 63-0 by Florida State one week ago - matching its largest margin of defeat in 20 years. The Terps are favored by a TD at home with Virginia in town.

- Dating back to last season, Boston College is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games. The Eagles are 24-point road dogs at No. 4 Clemson Saturday.

- If anything, give Syracuse credit for holding onto the ball. The Orange are tied with 16 programs which have just one fumble lost this season.

- New Mexico ranks 100 in the country by allowing 35.6 points per game. The Lobos face a Wyoming programs which averages 37.6 ppg. Saturday's total is currently 69.5.

- The bye week isn't kind to San Jose State. The Spartans are 3-15-1 ATS in their previous 19 games following the week off. They are 3.5-point road dogs at Colorado State.

- The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Badgers are 10-point home faves.

- Dating back to 2003, the Under is 5-1 in the previous six meetings between East Carolina and Tulane. Saturday's total is currently 53.

- The high-flying Oregon Ducks are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Washington Huskies. Oregon is a 13-point fave at Washington Saturday afternoon.

- The Rice Owls seem to travel well. They are 4-0 ATS in the previous four road games and are 1.5-point road dogs at UTSA.

- The Over is 8-2 in Marshall's last 10 conference games. The Herd are at Florida Atlantic with a total of 56 Saturday.

- The Michigan Wolverines are one of the top consensus picks at 73 percent despite being just 2-5 ATS in their previous seven meetings with Penn State. The Wolverines are 2.5-point road faves.

- The top Covers consensus pick of the weekend? Well that would be Northern Illinois (78 percent), who is a 23.5-point home fave with Akron in town.

- Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is 10-0 in his career as a starter. He'll lead the Cardinal offense into Utah against the Utes as 7.5-point road faves.

- The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have rushed for 324 yards or more in four of their five games. They'll be tested against BYU and the No. 12-ranked rushing defense in the country, allowing just 132.6 ypg.

- The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and are big 24.5-point home faves against Idaho Saturday.

- Middle Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with North Texas. The Blue Raiders are 6.5-point road dogs Saturday.

- The Kentucky Wildcats are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 SEC games. The Cats are 27-point home dogs against No. 1 Alabama.

- The Texas State Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. They are 6.5-point home faves against UL Monroe Saturday.

- Bowling Green hasn’t beaten an SEC school since defeating Kentucky in 1985. It will try to end that drought at Mississippi State as 9.5-point road dogs.

- The Under is 4-0 in Hawaii's last four road games. The Rainbow Warriors are at UNLV with a total of 55 Saturday.

- The Over is 8-1 in UTEP's last nine games overall. The Miners host Tulsa with a total of 64.

- Boise State is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Utah State. The Broncos are 6.5-point road faves.

- The Texas A&M run defense allows 214.8 ypg - 109th in the nation. In last season's matchup, Ole Miss RB Jeff Scott ran 21 times for 108 yards and a TD.

- The Colorado Buffaloes have lost 10-straight conference games. The Buffs are at Arizona State as 25.5-point road underdogs.

- The UCLA Bruins are last out of 123 FBS teams in penalties with an average of 10.75 per game.

- The road team is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Oregon State and Washington State. The Beavers are 2-point road underdogs.

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NCAAF

Saturday, October 12

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Oklahoma vs. Texas: What bettors need to know
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Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 57.5)

Texas not only has lost three straight games to No. 10 Oklahoma, but the Longhorns haven’t even been competitive in the last two meetings heading into Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Sooners won the last two games by a combined 80 points – 55-17 in 2011 and 63-21 last season – and Saturday’s winner will at least share the Big 12 lead. Case McCoy starts at quarterback for the Longhorns in place of the injured David Ash.

McCoy is starting for the third time this season as Ash is missing his second consecutive game due to a concussion. Oklahoma also is without a key figure in defensive standout Corey Nelson after the senior outside linebacker suffered a season-ending pectoral injury in last Saturday’s victory over Texas Christian. Despite an up-and-down season and the recent struggles against the Sooners, Longhorns coach Mack Brown is expecting a tight game. “It’s really more about us right now and getting things fixed than it is about Oklahoma’s team for us this weekend,” Brown said. “We’ve got to play better. They’ve proven they’re going to play well in this ballgame.”

TV: Noon ET, ABC.

LINE: Oklahoma opened at -13 and has moved to -14. The total has moved up from 56.5 to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing south at 6 mph.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (5-0, 2-0 Big 12, 3-2 ATS): Freshman Dominique Alexander steps into Nelson’s starting position and he has large shoes to fill on a unit ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense (13.0) and ninth in total defense (281.6). “He’s a big leader for us and he’s had a spectacular year,” defensive coordinator Mike Stoops said of Nelson. “His big-play ability and ability to find the football – those are things we’ll miss but other guys will have to pick up the slack and this will be a good opportunity for Dominique.” Oklahoma ranks 17th in rushing offense (246 per game) and both senior running back Brennan Clay (450 yards) and junior quarterback Blake Bell (175 yards) could rack up the yards against a Texas defense that allows 248.4 per outing – 117th out of 123 FBS teams.

ABOUT TEXAS (3-2, 2-0 Big 12, 2-3 ATS): The Longhorns have been abysmal on defense and are still reeling from the September loss of linebacker Jordan Hicks to a torn Achilles’ tendon. The poor rushing defense has been the biggest issue despite recent strong play by sophomore defensive tackle Malcom Brown (career-best 10 tackles in a win over Iowa State on Oct. 3) as Texas is giving up 28.4 points and 465.4 yards. Junior receiver Jaxon Shipley has 27 receptions – 16 of them going for first downs – and sophomore running back Johnathan Gray has rushed for 439 yards and four touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Longhorns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas leads the series 59-43-5 but Oklahoma has won nine of the 14 meetings since Bob Stoops became head coach.

2. Bell has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 835 yards and six touchdowns and hasn’t been intercepted.

3. McCoy hasn’t been picked off in 102 attempts this season and has a 60.8 completion percentage and two touchdowns.

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NCAAF

Saturday, October 12

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Florida at LSU: What bettors need to know
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Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-7, 48)

Florida's dominant defense looks to slow down No. 11 LSU's high-powered offense when the 17th-ranked Gators travel to Baton Rouge for an SEC showdown Saturday. The Tigers bounced back from a crushing loss to Georgia to rout Mississippi State 59-26 last week, as their newfound explosive offense continued to produce. The Gators are still in the thick of the SEC East race thanks to a unit that ranks second in the nation in total defense (217 yards per game) and fourth in scoring defense (12.2 points per game).

Florida is coming off a 30-10 victory over Arkansas and has won three straight to open SEC play. The Tigers have won five straight and 27 of 28 at home, winning their three home games this year by an average of 28.3 points. The Gators have won only once in their last four trips to Baton Rouge but they spoiled the Tigers' title hopes with a 14-6 home win last year.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: LSU opened at -6.5 and moved as high as -8.5 in Las Vegas. Total opened 47.5 and has moved to 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 80s with partly cloudy skies and 11 percent chance of rain with winds blowing SSE at 5 mph.

ABOUT FLORIDA (4-1, 3-0 SEC East, 2-3 ATS): The Gators' offense has flourished since Tyler Murphy took over under center, as the junior's 209.4 quarterback rating against Arkansas was the highest for a Florida quarterback in an SEC game since Rex Grossman in 2001. The return of running back Matt Jones also has bolstered the offense with Jones (322 yards, 2 TDs) and Mack Brown (284 yards, 3 TDs) leading a strong ground game. Florida's strength still lies with its defense, which hasn't allowed more than 275 total yards this season and ranks second in the nation against the run, allowing 65 yards per game.

ABOUT LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC West, 3-2-1 ATS): Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has revived the Tigers' offense, which has topped 400 total yards and 30 points in each game this season. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger has blossomed - leading the SEC in passer efficiency with a 190.1 rating while passing for 1,738 yards and 15 touchdowns with two interceptions - and receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry have combined for 77 receptions for 1,302 yards and 13 scores. LSU's defense has taken a step back from recent years, allowing 367 yards and 24.7 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Louisiana State.
* Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
* Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. LSU has won 35 of its last 36 games when scoring at least 30 points and is 63-5 under coach Les Miles when reaching that plateau.

2. Florida has held 12 consecutive SEC opponents under 20 points, and the Gators have forced a turnover in 16 straight contests.

3. Mettenberger is only the fifth LSU quarterback to throw for 300 yards in consecutive games and looks to match Rohan Davey's school record of three straight set in 2001.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 12

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Texas A&M at Ole Miss: What bettors need to know
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Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels (+6, 76)

After losing back-to-back games at Alabama and Auburn, Mississippi returns home to face a well-rested Texas A&M squad. The ninth-ranked Aggies have won all five meetings against the Rebels, including last season’s 30-27 comeback victory in Oxford. The game features the SEC’s top two passing attacks, but Ole Miss' recent struggles continued in a 30-22 loss to Auburn last week, when it was held to three field goals before scoring two second-half touchdowns.

The Rebels could return to form against a Texas A&M defense that ranks last in the SEC and lost starting defensive tackle Kirby Ennis to a season-ending knee injury in a 45-33 victory over Arkansas on Sept. 28. Ennis’ injury is a major blow to the Aggies’ run defense, which is allowing 214.8 yards per game - 109th in the country. Texas A&M’s beleaguered defense turned in an encouraging outing against Arkansas, but the unit figures to be tested by an Ole Miss offense that averaged 38 points in its first three wins.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Aggies opened -6.5 and are currently -6. The total opened 74.5 and is now 76.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 32 percent chance of thunderstorms.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (4-1, 1-1 SEC West): The Aggies have used a balanced offense to score at least 40 points in each of their first five games for the first time in school history. Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel leads the SEC in total offense with 361 yards per game, and sophomore Mike Evans ranks third in the country in receiving yards at 138 yards per game. Defensive back Deshazor Everett has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games and is second on the team with 31 tackles.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (3-2, 1-2): The Rebels begin a stretch of six straight home games against a Texas A&M team that is seeking its 10th straight road win. Junior quarterback Bo Wallace threw for a season-high 336 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions last week against Auburn, but the Rebels will need a more balanced attack in order to keep Manziel off the field. Ole Miss boasts the SEC’s No. 2 pass defense, but the Rebels’ defensive line has been hit by a wave of injuries in recent weeks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games.
* Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Rebels are 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 8-3 in Aggies last 11 games in October.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas A&M has scored first in 17 of 18 games under coach Kevin Sumlin.

2. Ole Miss RB Jeff Scott rushed 21 times for 108 yards and a score in last year’s loss to the Aggies.

3. Manziel has surpassed 300 yards in total offense in 15 of 18 career games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Consensus Picks

October 12, 2013 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

5:00 PM Akron +24 450 22.75% Northern Illinois -24 1528 77.25% View View

12:00 PM Memphis +9.5 561 25.52% Houston -9.5 1637 74.48% View View

3:30 PM Virginia +5.5 507 25.68% Maryland -5.5 1467 74.32% View View

8:00 PM Hawaii +8 529 28.15% UNLV -8 1350 71.85% View View

3:30 PM New Mexico +14 547 28.56% Wyoming -14 1368 71.44% View View

2:00 PM Central Michigan +19.5 564 29.24% Ohio -19.5 1365 70.76% View View

3:30 PM Boston College +24 686 30.64% Clemson -24 1553 69.36% View View

12:00 PM Eastern Michigan +7 525 31.18% Army -7 1159 68.82% View View

3:00 PM Kent State +14.5 629 31.23% Ball State -14.5 1385 68.77% View View

7:00 PM Idaho +26.5 526 31.48% Arkansas State -26.5 1145 68.52% View View

3:30 PM Florida +7.5 860 33.50% Louisiana State -7.5 1707 66.50% View View

7:30 PM Bowling Green +11 666 34.03% Mississippi State -11 1291 65.97% View View

12:00 PM Iowa State +14.5 795 34.55% Texas Tech -14.5 1506 65.45% View View

7:00 PM Middle Tennessee +6 601 35.04% North Texas -6 1114 64.96% View View

10:00 PM Colorado +27.5 655 35.18% Arizona State -27.5 1207 64.82% View View

7:00 PM UL Monroe +6.5 622 35.93% Texas State -6.5 1109 64.07% View View

3:30 PM San Jose State +3.5 679 36.06% Colorado State -3.5 1204 63.94% View View

12:30 PM Navy +4.5 773 36.29% Duke -4.5 1357 63.71% View View

10:30 PM California +26 770 36.60% UCLA -26 1334 63.40% View View

3:30 PM Syracuse +6.5 786 38.62% North Carolina State -6.5 1249 61.38% View View

12:00 PM Kansas +24.5 819 39.62% Texas Christian -24.5 1248 60.38% View View

12:00 PM Missouri +7 1069 39.65% Georgia -7 1627 60.35% View View

2:00 PM Western Carolina +41.5 603 40.83% Auburn -41.5 874 59.17% View View

12:00 PM Pittsburgh +7.5 1034 43.39% Virginia Tech -7.5 1349 56.61% View View

7:00 PM Georgia Tech +7 953 45.53% Brigham Young -7 1140 54.47% View View

12:00 PM Indiana +10 1136 45.92% Michigan State -10 1338 54.08% View View

10:30 PM Oregon State PK 1001 46.19% Washington State PK 1166 53.81% View View

12:00 PM South Florida +4 1054 47.76% Connecticut -4 1153 52.24% View View

3:00 PM Miami (Ohio) +5.5 962 51.97% Massachusetts -5.5 889 48.03% View View

3:30 PM East Carolina -10.5 1023 56.71% Tulane +10.5 781 43.29% View View

8:00 PM Tulsa -10 988 59.27% Texas El Paso +10 679 40.73% View View

7:30 PM Alabama-Birmingham -6.5 639 60.17% Florida International +6.5 423 39.83% View View

3:30 PM Northwestern +10.5 1503 60.97% Wisconsin -10.5 962 39.03% View View

4:00 PM Rice -1 1152 62.17% Texas-San Antonio +1 701 37.83% View View

8:00 PM Boise State -5 1315 62.26% Utah State +5 797 37.74% View View

12:21 PM South Carolina -6 1531 63.71% Arkansas +6 872 36.29% View View

12:00 PM Oklahoma -12.5 1681 64.01% Texas +12.5 945 35.99% View View

4:00 PM Oregon -14 1661 66.12% Washington +14 851 33.88% View View

5:00 PM Marshall -10.5 1180 66.40% Florida Atlantic +10.5 597 33.60% View View

2:00 PM Buffalo -10 1287 66.93% Western Michigan +10 636 33.07% View View

3:30 PM Troy -16.5 1192 67.38% Georgia State +16.5 577 32.62% View View

3:30 PM Baylor -18 1678 69.45% Kansas State +18 738 30.55% View View

7:00 PM Alabama -27 1509 69.64% Kentucky +27 658 30.36% View View

12:00 PM Nebraska -14.5 1725 71.61% Purdue +14.5 684 28.39% View View

5:00 PM Michigan -2.5 1747 71.80% Penn State +2.5 686 28.20% View View

6:00 PM Stanford -8 1666 72.15% Utah +8 643 27.85% View View

8:30 PM Texas A&M -7 1853 74.78% Mississippi +7 625 25.22% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

3:00 PM Miami (Ohio) 45 405 40.38% Massachusetts 45 598 59.62% View View

12:00 PM Eastern Michigan 56.5 446 41.92% Army 56.5 618 58.08% View View

5:00 PM Michigan 49.5 494 47.73% Penn State 49.5 541 52.27% View View

7:30 PM Alabama-Birmingham 53 435 49.26% Florida International 53 448 50.74% View View

10:30 PM California 75 579 49.40% UCLA 75 593 50.60% View View

7:00 PM Middle Tennessee 54 455 50.39% North Texas 54 448 49.61% View View

8:30 PM Texas A&M 77.5 574 50.53% Mississippi 77.5 562 49.47% View View

3:30 PM San Jose State 61 509 51.21% Colorado State 61 485 48.79% View View

12:00 PM South Florida 41 570 51.40% Connecticut 41 539 48.60% View View

12:00 PM Indiana 53 627 51.56% Michigan State 53 589 48.44% View View

7:00 PM Georgia Tech 54.5 514 51.87% Brigham Young 54.5 477 48.13% View View

4:00 PM Rice 55 480 53.45% Texas-San Antonio 55 418 46.55% View View

3:30 PM New Mexico 70 585 53.67% Wyoming 70 505 46.33% View View

3:30 PM Florida 48.5 647 54.46% Louisiana State 48.5 541 45.54% View View

7:00 PM UL Monroe 45.5 488 54.59% Texas State 45.5 406 45.41% View View

12:00 PM Pittsburgh 42.5 637 54.77% Virginia Tech 42.5 526 45.23% View View

3:30 PM East Carolina 54.5 537 54.80% Tulane 54.5 443 45.20% View View

3:30 PM Syracuse 53.5 554 54.85% North Carolina State 53.5 456 45.15% View View

3:30 PM Troy 62 565 56.05% Georgia State 62 443 43.95% View View

7:00 PM Idaho 61.5 519 56.05% Arkansas State 61.5 407 43.95% View View

12:30 PM Navy 56.5 652 56.89% Duke 56.5 494 43.11% View View

3:30 PM Virginia 43 588 57.48% Maryland 43 435 42.52% View View

7:30 PM Bowling Green 52 541 57.80% Mississippi State 52 395 42.20% View View

2:00 PM Central Michigan 54 563 58.65% Ohio 54 397 41.35% View View

2:00 PM Buffalo 50.5 564 58.75% Western Michigan 50.5 396 41.25% View View

5:00 PM Akron 62 583 59.31% Northern Illinois 62 400 40.69% View View

12:21 PM South Carolina 51.5 696 59.49% Arkansas 51.5 474 40.51% View View

7:00 PM Alabama 51.5 615 59.82% Kentucky 51.5 413 40.18% View View

8:00 PM Tulsa 64.5 582 60.19% Texas El Paso 64.5 385 39.81% View View

5:00 PM Marshall 55 576 60.31% Florida Atlantic 55 379 39.69% View View

6:00 PM Stanford 54 620 60.72% Utah 54 401 39.28% View View

3:00 PM Kent State 62.5 645 61.84% Ball State 62.5 398 38.16% View View

10:00 PM Colorado 67 659 61.88% Arizona State 67 406 38.12% View View

8:00 PM Hawaii 55 588 61.96% UNLV 55 361 38.04% View View

4:00 PM Oregon 75 807 62.03% Washington 75 494 37.97% View View

3:30 PM Northwestern 57 711 63.20% Wisconsin 57 414 36.80% View View

3:30 PM Boston College 63.5 754 65.91% Clemson 63.5 390 34.09% View View

12:00 PM Oklahoma 57 826 66.19% Texas 57 422 33.81% View View

12:00 PM Memphis 52 739 66.34% Houston 52 375 33.66% View View

8:00 PM Boise State 50.5 682 66.60% Utah State 50.5 342 33.40% View View

10:30 PM Oregon State 63.5 767 66.75% Washington State 63.5 382 33.25% View View

12:00 PM Missouri 65 956 68.29% Georgia 65 444 31.71% View View

12:00 PM Kansas 45 784 68.89% Texas Christian 45 354 31.11% View View

12:00 PM Nebraska 57 834 68.93% Purdue 57 376 31.07% View View

12:00 PM Iowa State 56.5 823 70.28% Texas Tech 56.5 348 29.72% View View

3:30 PM Baylor 74.5 927 71.97% Kansas State 74.5 361 28.03% View View

[StarDust Bum]

GOY of the Year Goes off Later today...watching that line



Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/11/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/10/13 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/05/13 56-*43-*1 56.57% +*4350 Detail
10/04/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/03/13 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 66-*51-*1 56.41% +4950


Saturday, October 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Florida - 12:00 PM ET South Florida +4 500
Connecticut - Under 41 500

Missouri - 12:00 PM ET Missouri +7 500 POD # 1
Georgia - Over 65 500

Indiana - 12:00 PM ET Indiana +10 500 POD # 4
Michigan State -Under 53 500

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma -12.5 500
Texas - Over 57 500

Pittsburgh - 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +7.5 500
Virginia Tech - Under 42.5 500

Nebraska - 12:00 PM ET Nebraska -13 500
Purdue - Under 57 500

Kansas - 12:00 PM ET Texas Christian -24.5 500
Texas Christian - Under 45 500

Iowa State - 12:00 PM ET Iowa State +14.5 500
Texas Tech - Over 56.5 500

Memphis - 12:00 PM ET Houston -9.5 500 POD # 2
Houston - Over 52 500

Eastern Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Army -7.5 500
Army - Under 57.5 500

South Carolina - 12:21 PM ET South Carolina -6 500
Arkansas - Under 51.5 500

Navy - 12:30 PM ET Duke -4.5 500
Duke - Over 56.5 500

Western Carolina - 2:00 PM ET Western Carolina +41.5 500
Auburn -

Central Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Ohio -19.5 500
Ohio - Under 54 500

Buffalo - 2:00 PM ET Buffalo -10 500 POD # 3
Western Michigan -Over 50.5 500