The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting: Three teams improve to 4-0 O/U records

Despite a high total in the Denver Broncos versus Philadelphia Eagles game, the scoreline soared past the 57.5 number as the teams combined for 72 points.

The 52-20 Broncos victory moves the club to a 4-0 Over/Under record along with a pair of other teams who saw their totals go over the number Sunday.

The Chicago Bears also moved to 4-0 O/U after their 42-30 loss to the Detroit Lions.

Joining them at that clip is the Minnesota Vikings who combined for 61 points in Minny's 34-27 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in London, England.

The Green Bay Packers, who are enjoying their bye week, sit at 3-0 O/U
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[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, September 30

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Tale of the tape: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
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The Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints for a Monday night showdown involving a pair of surprise unbeaten teams. The Dolphins have fared well against potent Atlanta and Indianapolis pass attacks, but should be in for their toughest assignment of the young season as they look to silence Drew Brees and the vaunted New Orleans offense.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Dolphins' attack was supposed to be bolstered with the arrival of former Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Mike Wallace, but Miami still ranks in the bottom quarter of the NFL in yards per game (319.3). The passing game has actually improved marginally, sitting in the middle of the pack, but at just 70.3 rushing yards per game entering Monday night, the running back tandem of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas need to be better. The two continue to share carries, with Miller amassing 32 and Thomas 21 through the first three games.

Brees looks as dangerous as ever, averaging better than 340 yards per game through the air while racking up six passing touchdowns. His top target has been Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham, who has decimated opposing defenses to the tune of 358 receiving yards and four scores. Even if the Dolphins find a way to contain him, Brees has no shortage of secondary weapons, led by veteran wide receiver Marques Colston (14 receptions, 202 yards, TD) and speedy running back Darren Sproles (16 receptions, 163 yards).

Edge: New Orleans


Defense

Miami has opened with three consecutive victories despite being below average in both rush and pass defense. The Dolphins are surrendering nearly 109 yards per game on the ground, and were gashed for 146 by the Atlanta Falcons in a narrow Week 3 victory. Things have been slightly worse in pass defense (21st in yards per game), thanks in large part to Andrew Luck's 321-yard explosion in Miami's 24-20 triumph in Week 2. Miami comes into Week 4 with a plus-two turnover differential.

The years of horrid New Orleans defensive performances may be in the rearview mirror following a string of impressive efforts to open 2013. The Saints boast one of the top pass defenses in football coming into Week 4, ranked fourth in the league at 184.3 yards surrendered per game. They limited Arizona to 161 yards through the air in last week's 31-7 thrashing while intercepting quarterback Carson Palmer twice. The run defense has been slightly below average, ranked 20th in the league at 111.3 yards against per game.

Edge: New Orleans


Special Teams

Miami has one of the best kickoff return games in the league so far, averaging 26.2 yards per attempt - good for eighth in the NFL. By comparison, the Dolphins find themselves in the middle of the pack in punt returns (7.3 per attempt). Rookie Placekicker Caleb Sturgis has been perfect to date, going 6-for-6 on field-goal attempts - including five from 40 yards or further - and 8-for-8 on extra points. The 2013 fifth-round pick connected on field goals of 46 and 50 yards in Week 3's 27-23 victory over the Falcons.

New Orleans has been impressive in its own right with kickoff returns, averaging 30 yards on four attempts. Punt returns are a different story altogether; the Saints are averaging just six yards in six attempts, good for 23rd in the league. Veteran kicker Garrett Hartley has been kept busy through the first three games, going 7-of-8 on field-goal attempts and 7-of-7 on extra points. He converted a 31-yard kick for his only field goal of the game against the Cardinals, though he added four extra points.

Edge: Miami


Notable quotable

"He is a tremendous athlete and the two things that stand out, his ability to elevate and jump. He is explosive and has outstanding hands on the ball. He is a player that I know studies a lot of film and when you watch him now this season, you see all the things you saw on a yearly basis twice during the year (when he was with Atlanta)." – Saints head coach Sean Payton on Dolphins cornerback Brent Grimes

"I think the game has slowed down for him tremendously. He's seen all the different looks the defense is giving him in terms of fronts and pressures and coverages, so it's slowed down for him." – Dolphins quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor on second-year QB Ryan Tannehill

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sharp Monday money on Saints, Under

Monday Night Football is a battle of unbeaten teams when the Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints. We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in, the betting trends and where the odds could land before kickoff:

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints – Open: -6, Move: -7.5

The Saints opened below the key number of a touchdown but were quickly bet up to -7 with sharp and public money pushing the spread. Books thought the adjustment to a touchdown would tempt Miami backers, however, with action coming in strong on the Saints and many parlays connected to the home side, books had no choice but to move again and add the half-point hook.

“With nearly 70 percent of the action on the Saints, combined with quite a bit of parlay liability, we had to go to 7.5 in hopes of limiting anymore liability on the Saints,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “Since going to 7.5, action has been dead even, so I doubt we'll move off this number at any point today.”

The total for the Monday night game hit the board at 48 points and immediately took money on the Over. As Sunday’s games played out, parlays tied into the Over Monday, forcing books to pump up the number to 49.5. However, since that adjustment, sharp action has bought back on the total.

“Early this morning we booked very sharp action under that number,” says Stewart. “It's action sharp enough that we have to respect the bet and make a move, so we're back to 49 and I believe we will be dealing this number for most of the day. Roughly 65 percent of the action is on the Over.”
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[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report

If your sportsbook is currently dealing Kansas City as a 3-point favorite in Tennessee this Sunday, take a picture. According to one Las Vegas oddsmaker, it’s not going to last long.

The 4-0 Chiefs opened as field-goal faves visiting a Titans squad that just lost its hottest player. Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lighting up the scoreboards before being carted off with a hip injury during Week 4’s blowout win against the Jets.

“We originally sent out Kansas City as a short favorite but since the Locker injury, we’ve suggested a move to Chiefs -3,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Books should likely get off three pretty quickly. With the combo of Kansas City’s success and Tennessee losing their quarterback, I don’t know where the Titans money is going to come from.”

The Chiefs have been dominant in their last two outings and coming off a 31-7 beating of the winless Giants Sunday. Korner says Kansas City may be peaking too early, but doesn’t see it taking a step back against a Tennessee team turning to veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as its backup.

“Fitzpatrick is probably a better option at backup than most teams have,” says Korner. “He’s been there before and the team will rally around him. But if things keep going K.C.’s way, why not take the Chiefs as a field-goal fave?”

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 43)

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Indianapolis as a 3-point home underdog but the early action has trimmed that spread by half a point at some books. Seattle looked human for most of Sunday’s game with Houston, but turned it on down the stretch and squeaked out an OT win to improve to 4-0.

“We’re a little worried about two road games in a row,” Korner says of the Seahawks’ schedule. “Being on that key number was important for us. Seattle’s tight game Sunday should help keep the Seahawks money in check a bit this week.”

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 55)

This is shaping up to be the biggest game of the week, with the NFL’s best team taking on its most popular. Korner says the Cowboys faithful will show up but doesn’t think it will be enough to keep this spread from crossing the key number of 7.5.

“Denver looks as impressive as any team we’ve seen in recent seasons,” he says. “We had three guys bring Denver -3 to the table and one said Denver -6. We all immediately agreed on Denver -6. The Broncos can pile it on anywhere. They sky is the limit with this line.”

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

This Sunday Night Football line could have been very different if Houston had of hung on against Seattle. But, that letdown and a sharp performance from the Niners on Thursday have oddsmakers thinking twice about San Francisco’s early struggles.

“That (Thursday) win put it in the minds of people that San Francisco can put it all together,” says Korner. “I don’t know if they’re back on track yet but if they can handle Houston, it would seem like they’re back track. On paper it should be a good game, but after Houston lost that one Sunday…”

Korner says Northern Nevada books, which get a lot of bettors from the Bay Area, should add a couple more points to this spread and hike the parlay card line to 8.5.
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[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/29/13 17-*9-*0 65.38% +*3550 Detail
09/26/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/23/13 0-*1-*1 0.00% -*550 Detail
09/22/13 10-*17-*1 37.04% -*4350 Detail
09/19/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
09/16/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/15/13 13-*15-*0 46.43% -*1750 Detail
09/12/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
09/09/13 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/08/13 13-*12-*1 52.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 62-*59-*3 51.24% -*1450


Monday, September 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:40 PM ET Miami +7 500 POD # 1

New Orleans - Over 48 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Wish me luck....this is what i've got going tonight.


ONLINE
09/29/2013
09:52 AM

[Ticket #: 150985299] PARLAY (4 TEAMS) RR (1P-4T)

09/29/2013 @ 04:40 PM NFL [223] NEW ENGLAND +3 1.83
09/29/2013 @ 04:40 PM NFL [223] TOTAL o49 1.91
(NEW ENGLAND vrs ATLANTA)

09/30/2013 @ 05:40 PM NFL [225] MIAMI +7 1.91

09/30/2013 @ 05:40 PM NFL [225] TOTAL o48½ 1.91
(MIAMI vrs NEW ORLEANS)

[LuckyLuch]

Good luck tonight!
Tailing wit Wayne n porks Tex and ur Mia an Over
Fingers crossed!

[Udog]

[Ticket #: 150985299] PARLAY (4 TEAMS) RR (1P-4T)

Very interesting! Good luck, Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

Miami can't stand being in PRIME TIME i GUESS.......