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Total Talk - Week 4
September 29, 2013
Week 3 Recap
The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record in Week 3. Through three weeks of action, the ‘under’ is 25-23. The Bears, Broncos, Vikings and Packers have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 while the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Saints and Patriots have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their first three games.
Line Moves
If part of your handicapping is following line moves, then this section has certainly helped your profits this NFL season or at least we hope so. Through two weeks, we’ve listed 13 games that had their total move 1 ½ points or more at CRIS, either up or down. If you followed the move, regardless of the jump or drop, you would’ve gone 11-2 (85%) this season.
I’m not telling you to run to the counter and unload this Sunday, just informing you of where the early bettors believe the oddsmakers made mistakes. In Week 4, we have five games that have been adjusted as of Sunday morning.
Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota (from London): Line opened 39 and jumped to 41
Seattle at Houston: Line opened 45 and dropped to 41 ½
New York Giants at Kansas City: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Dallas at San Diego: Line opened 44 ½ and jumped to 46 ½
Philadelphia at Denver: Line opened 55 and jumped to 57 ½
Sixty-Something?
Totals in the fifties isn’t unusual these days in the pass-happy NFL and it makes you wonder if we’ll ever see a number in the sixties, especially the way Denver has been playing this season. In case you’re wondering, the highest ‘over/under’ in NFL history occurred in 2000 when the St. Louis Rams otherwise known as the “Greatest Show on Turf” met San Francisco on the road. That total was 62 and it fell ‘under’ as the Rams beat the 49ers 34-24. St. Louis played 17 games 2000 and only four were listed below 50 points.
Denver and quarterback Peyton Manning are on pace to shatter offensive records this season and the books have taken notice. This week, the Broncos are looking at a total of 57 ½ when Philadelphia visits Sports Authority Field. When you look at the lack of productivity from the Eagles defense this season, it’s hard to argue that the Broncos will be slowed down, especially at home. Make a note that the Broncos had two totals in the fifties (50, 55) last season and the betting results went 1-1 in those games, barely. Only a combined 52 and 48 points were posted in those two contests.
Lookin' at London
The NFL International Series returns this week for the first of two games to be played at Wembley Stadium from London. The first go ‘round will feature a pair of winless squads in Pittsburgh and Minnesota going head-to-head. The second meeting from London takes place in four weeks when San Francisco and Jacksonville meet from London.
This will be the seventh installment from England and if the trends stay true, we could be looking at another low-scoring affair. In the first six matchups the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 and in the two instances we did see some points posted, it came with a pair of offensive juggernauts playing in the Saints (2008) and Patriots (2012). Most would agree that the Steelers and Vikings aren’t as explosive. Make a note that Minnesota is starting a backup at QB in Matt Cassel, which might be a good thing for the Vikings.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)
2012 – New England 45 St. Louis 7 (Over 46)
Divisional Trends
The ‘over’ has gone 9-6 in divisional matchups this season, which includes Thursday’s lucky ‘over’ ticket between the 49ers and Rams. Three more on tap for Sunday.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in this series, which included a pair of shootouts last season that saw a combined 58 and 61 points posted.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive games between this pair. The totals have ranged from 36 ½ points to 43 during this span. This week’s number is hovering between 41 and 42.
Chicago at Detroit: For the past three years, the Bears and Lions have seen the ‘over/under’ go 1-1 in their regular season matchups. If that trend stays true in 2013, the best angle might be to pass on Sunday and then play the opposite when they meet again on Nov. 10 from Soldier Field.
Under the Lights
Including this past Thursday’s matchup between St. Louis and San Francisco, the ‘over’ has cashed in three consecutive primetime games. On the season, the ‘over’ is now 7-4 in the national spotlight. This week, we have two high numbers posted and a lot of it has to do with reputation.
New England at Atlanta: On paper this matchup presents two quality quarterbacks that can light up the scoreboard any given week but neither is executing at a high level right now. The Falcons are banged up on both sides of the football and the Patriots aren’t clicking with all the new faces. Tom Brady is 3-0 in his career versus Atlanta, posting 24, 31 and 26 points. New England will still be without TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) and Danny Amendola (groin) on Sunday. Atlanta won’t have RB Steven Jackson (thigh) but WR Roddy White (ankle) is expected to go.
Miami at New Orleans: After three weeks, the biggest surprise of the season could be the perfect 3-0 ‘under’ record of the Saints. Miami has been better offensively behind second-year QB Ryan Tannehill this season but he still doesn’t have any pocket awareness (15 sacks). Drew Brees and the Saints have put up five scores in each of their two home games. Last Sunday, they had 31 (4 TDs, 1 FG) against the Cardinals and in Week 1 they put up 21 (3 FGs, 2 TDs) versus the Falcons. I’d expect New Orleans to get at least five scores again in the Superdome especially with injuries to the Miami front seven.
Fearless Predictions
For the second consecutive week, we split and lost another 20 cents ($20). On the season, we’re down $40 despite going 3-1 (75%) in our Best Bets. Team totals haven’t been a sound investment (0-2) so far but it’s a new week. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Dallas-San Diego 46 ½
Best Under: Seattle-Houston 41 ½
Best Team Total: Over Washington 23 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Under 50 Pittsburgh-Minnesota
Under 50 ½ Seattle-Houston
Over 37 ½ Dallas-San Diego
September 29, 2013
Week 3 Recap
The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record in Week 3. Through three weeks of action, the ‘under’ is 25-23. The Bears, Broncos, Vikings and Packers have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 while the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Saints and Patriots have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their first three games.
Line Moves
If part of your handicapping is following line moves, then this section has certainly helped your profits this NFL season or at least we hope so. Through two weeks, we’ve listed 13 games that had their total move 1 ½ points or more at CRIS, either up or down. If you followed the move, regardless of the jump or drop, you would’ve gone 11-2 (85%) this season.
I’m not telling you to run to the counter and unload this Sunday, just informing you of where the early bettors believe the oddsmakers made mistakes. In Week 4, we have five games that have been adjusted as of Sunday morning.
Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota (from London): Line opened 39 and jumped to 41
Seattle at Houston: Line opened 45 and dropped to 41 ½
New York Giants at Kansas City: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Dallas at San Diego: Line opened 44 ½ and jumped to 46 ½
Philadelphia at Denver: Line opened 55 and jumped to 57 ½
Sixty-Something?
Totals in the fifties isn’t unusual these days in the pass-happy NFL and it makes you wonder if we’ll ever see a number in the sixties, especially the way Denver has been playing this season. In case you’re wondering, the highest ‘over/under’ in NFL history occurred in 2000 when the St. Louis Rams otherwise known as the “Greatest Show on Turf” met San Francisco on the road. That total was 62 and it fell ‘under’ as the Rams beat the 49ers 34-24. St. Louis played 17 games 2000 and only four were listed below 50 points.
Denver and quarterback Peyton Manning are on pace to shatter offensive records this season and the books have taken notice. This week, the Broncos are looking at a total of 57 ½ when Philadelphia visits Sports Authority Field. When you look at the lack of productivity from the Eagles defense this season, it’s hard to argue that the Broncos will be slowed down, especially at home. Make a note that the Broncos had two totals in the fifties (50, 55) last season and the betting results went 1-1 in those games, barely. Only a combined 52 and 48 points were posted in those two contests.
Lookin' at London
The NFL International Series returns this week for the first of two games to be played at Wembley Stadium from London. The first go ‘round will feature a pair of winless squads in Pittsburgh and Minnesota going head-to-head. The second meeting from London takes place in four weeks when San Francisco and Jacksonville meet from London.
This will be the seventh installment from England and if the trends stay true, we could be looking at another low-scoring affair. In the first six matchups the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 and in the two instances we did see some points posted, it came with a pair of offensive juggernauts playing in the Saints (2008) and Patriots (2012). Most would agree that the Steelers and Vikings aren’t as explosive. Make a note that Minnesota is starting a backup at QB in Matt Cassel, which might be a good thing for the Vikings.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)
2012 – New England 45 St. Louis 7 (Over 46)
Divisional Trends
The ‘over’ has gone 9-6 in divisional matchups this season, which includes Thursday’s lucky ‘over’ ticket between the 49ers and Rams. Three more on tap for Sunday.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in this series, which included a pair of shootouts last season that saw a combined 58 and 61 points posted.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive games between this pair. The totals have ranged from 36 ½ points to 43 during this span. This week’s number is hovering between 41 and 42.
Chicago at Detroit: For the past three years, the Bears and Lions have seen the ‘over/under’ go 1-1 in their regular season matchups. If that trend stays true in 2013, the best angle might be to pass on Sunday and then play the opposite when they meet again on Nov. 10 from Soldier Field.
Under the Lights
Including this past Thursday’s matchup between St. Louis and San Francisco, the ‘over’ has cashed in three consecutive primetime games. On the season, the ‘over’ is now 7-4 in the national spotlight. This week, we have two high numbers posted and a lot of it has to do with reputation.
New England at Atlanta: On paper this matchup presents two quality quarterbacks that can light up the scoreboard any given week but neither is executing at a high level right now. The Falcons are banged up on both sides of the football and the Patriots aren’t clicking with all the new faces. Tom Brady is 3-0 in his career versus Atlanta, posting 24, 31 and 26 points. New England will still be without TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) and Danny Amendola (groin) on Sunday. Atlanta won’t have RB Steven Jackson (thigh) but WR Roddy White (ankle) is expected to go.
Miami at New Orleans: After three weeks, the biggest surprise of the season could be the perfect 3-0 ‘under’ record of the Saints. Miami has been better offensively behind second-year QB Ryan Tannehill this season but he still doesn’t have any pocket awareness (15 sacks). Drew Brees and the Saints have put up five scores in each of their two home games. Last Sunday, they had 31 (4 TDs, 1 FG) against the Cardinals and in Week 1 they put up 21 (3 FGs, 2 TDs) versus the Falcons. I’d expect New Orleans to get at least five scores again in the Superdome especially with injuries to the Miami front seven.
Fearless Predictions
For the second consecutive week, we split and lost another 20 cents ($20). On the season, we’re down $40 despite going 3-1 (75%) in our Best Bets. Team totals haven’t been a sound investment (0-2) so far but it’s a new week. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Dallas-San Diego 46 ½
Best Under: Seattle-Houston 41 ½
Best Team Total: Over Washington 23 ½
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Under 50 Pittsburgh-Minnesota
Under 50 ½ Seattle-Houston
Over 37 ½ Dallas-San Diego
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