The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL trends with Week 2 right around the corner........

-- Dolphins are 11-4 as a non-divisional road underdog.

-- Titans covered once in last five divisional road games.

-- Oakland covered twice in last nine home games.

-- Ravens are 2-8-1 in last 11 games as a divisional home favorite.

-- Green Bay is 12-5 vs spread in non-divisional home games.

-- Lions are 2-9-1 vs spread in last dozen road games.


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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13; top 8, bottom 5.......

13) AFC North—Whole division went 0-4 last week; only the Bengals should a semblance of hope. Its only one week, though.

31) Jaguars—Not often an NFL team finishes a games with two points, but Jacksonville pulled it off. Would they consider adding local hero Tebow?

30) Browns—They’re now 1-14 in season openers. In 15 years, they’ve been 1-0 once. Once. Their second-year QB is almost 30, by the way.

29) Redskins—Looked poorly coached throughout first half Monday, which is what happens when you start a QB who didn’t play in preseason. Backup QB Cousins’ injury is an underrated factor there-- RGIII might not even be playing if Cousins were available.

28) Steelers—Offense didn’t score until last two 2:00, at home vs Titans. Lost C Pouncey for year to injury. They’ve only had three coaches since 1969, but if this continues…….

8) Bears—They’re not as good as a couple of the teams who lost, but you need to be .500 to get in the top 8 here.

7) Eagles—Liked the approach; more teams need to try and score all the time. Are you listening, Gary Kubiak? Ran ball for 250+ yards, too.

6) Patriots—Brady is one of the three best QBs of all-time and he is the only reason for this rating; if I'm Robert Kraft, I'd like to know why a team with such horrible WRs let Wes Welker leave town? .

5) Texans—Not easy to win after being down 28-7, but also how the hell does a team with this much firepower get down 28-7? No-huddle offense looked really good Monday night. How about using it more often?

4) Seahawks—Play way better at home than on the road. Interesting game Sunday night, against division rival San Francisco.

3) Saints—Sean Payton will be Most Valuable Person in league this year. Good goal line stand at end Sunday to beat rival Falcons.

2) 49ers—I watched Kaepernick play several times in college, had no idea he’d be this good in the NFL. Not sure anyone else did either.

1) Broncos—Someone explain to me why Wes Welker was allowed to leave Foxboro; Denver offense looked unstoppable in Week 1.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

NY Jets at New England
The Patriots look to build on their 4-1-1 ATS record in their last 6 Thursday games. New England is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-11 1/2).

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

Game 101-102: NY Jets at New England (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 125.784; New England 144.513
Dunkel Line: New England by 18 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 11 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-11 1/2); Over




NFL

Thursday, September 12

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Thursday Night Football betting: Jets at Patriots
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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12, 43)

The New England Patriots and New York Jets are each coming off last-second wins in their season openers, but the level of satisfaction on both sides was markedly different. The Jets eked out a one-point victory over Tampa Bay in quarterback Geno Smith's NFL debut and will look to carry that momentum into their showdown with the host Patriots on Thursday night. New England blew a 10-point lead and needed a late comeback from Tom Brady to overcome upset-minded Buffalo.

The Patriots have won the last four meetings, including a 49-19 thumping of the Jets on Thanksgiving night last year - a game remembered for the infamous "butt fumble" by New York quarterback Mark Sanchez. Smith will get his second start while Sanchez seeks a second opinion on his injured right shoulder from renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews. Brady and New England's overhauled receiving corps struggled in the opener and the team could be further depleted by injury for Thursday's matchup.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

WEATHER: There is a 49 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds blowing south at 8 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -14

LINE: The Patriots opened at -13 and were as high as -14 before injury news forced money on New York and moved the spread to as low as -12. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0, 1-0 ATS): Smith was far from perfect in his debut but he etched his name into the record books by becoming the first rookie quarterback drafted in the second round or later since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 250 yards and win a season opener. Smith finished 24-for-38 for 256 yards with a fumble and interception, but he got the team in position for the decisive field goal in the final 34 seconds - albeit with the help of a Tampa Bay penalty. New York's defense - the calling card of coach Rex Ryan during his tenure - limited the Buccaneers to 250 yards of offense but the Jets' running game was non-existent, with Smith leading the way with 47 yards.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-0, 0-1 ATS): New England got bad news on the injury front Monday when it was reported that running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken wrist and will be out a few weeks. Vereen was the only running back in the NFL to surpass 100 yards on Sunday and added seven catches for 58 yards after replacing Stevan Ridley, who was benched due to a pair of fumbles. Wideout Danny Amendola was Brady's favorite target with 10 catches for 104 yards, but he aggravated a groin injury during the win and his status is uncertain. In addition, rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, the team's training camp sensation, is not expected to play due to a pulled hamstring.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Over is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 16-5 in Patriots' last 21 vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in 49 consecutive games, five shy of Drew Brees' NFL record.

2. Jets WR Santonio Holmes, a former Super Bowl MVP, had one catch for 13 yards in his first action since suffering a Lisfranc foot injury in Week 4 last season.

3. The Jets on Monday re-signed QB Brady Quinn, a former first-round pick, to serve as Smith's backup.


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NFL

Thursday, September 12

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Tale of the tape: New York Jets at New England Patriots
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There is no love lost between the Jets and Patriots, even if the two rivals are on opposite ends of the AFC spectrum. We break down Thursday’s AFC North grudge match with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Even though the Patriots lost plenty of weapons this offseason, are still without TE Rob Gronkowski and just lost WR Danny Amendola and RB Shane Vereen to injuries, they’re scoring attack is still light years ahead of the Jets. Tom Brady may have found Wes Welker 2.0 in WR Julian Edelman.

Geno Smith was a pleasant surprise for Jets faithful against the Bucs in Week 1. The rookie completed 63.2 percent of his passes and did a little damage on the ground as well. In fact, he pretty much did all the heavy lifting for New York’s ground game, which rushed for only 43 yards outside of Smith’s contributions.

Edge: New England

Defense

New York’s defense was opportunistic in the win over Tampa Bay, picking off one pass and recovering one of its three forced fumbles. It will need to generate those turnovers if its wants a shot at upsetting the mighty Pats on the road. New England is minus its top TE weapons and Jet CB Antonio Cromartie should be able to limit Edelman.

New England faces its second straight rookie passer after giving up two TDs to Bills first-year QB E.J. Manuel in Week 1’s 23-21 nail-biter over Buffalo. The Patriots did limit the Bills to just 150 yards passing but couldn't come up big in the red zone and failed to register a single sack.

Edge: New York

Special teams

The real edge in this matchup is New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts, including the game winner with five seconds left, versus Buffalo.

New York kicker Nick Folk was just as accurate, going 3 for 3 versus the Bucs. However, Folk has been shaky at times and connected on only 77.8 percent of his FGs last season. He did go 4 for 4 his last time playing at Gillette Stadium.

Edge: New England

Notable quotable

"Rex (Ryan) is to a degree a game-plan coach. He defends you the way that they feel they need to do that. How they defend you and how they defended the team before or the opponent after is all based on how he sees the matchups and what he wants to do. There's certainly going to be some in-game adjustments that we'll have to make, I'm sure, in all three phases of the game based on how they specifically want to try to attack us." – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.

"I'm not saying I'm guaranteeing it, but I'm saying if we do our jobs and follow our game plan, I don't see why we wouldn't be 2-0. We had a good game plan in the first game and we won, so why wouldn't I feel that way for this game? I'm here with these guys every day and I see all the hard work that myself and everybody else on this team is putting in. We can be a dominant defense." – Jets DE Mo Wilkerson.

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NFL
Short Sheet

Thursday, September 12

NY Jets at New England, 8:25 ET NFL
NY Jets: 5-9 ATS in road games
New England: 10-1 ATS off a division game

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Where the action is: Bettors fading injured Patriots

What was supposed to be a sure thing for the New England Patriots is looking less and less like an easy win, when the beleaguered Pats host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

New England suffered through an awful offseason and nearly got knocked off in the opener versus Buffalo. Now, the Patriots are down two offensive weapons – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola - and the betting public is showing their lack of faith in New England.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on this AFC East rivalry and where they expect the odds to close come kickoff Thursday night:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12, Move: -13.5, Move: -11

Both the Jets and Patriots picked up wins in Week 1 but only one of those victories is being seen as a positive. Oddsmakers opened New England as a 12-point favorite after narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Bills and early money moved that spread just under two touchdowns.

However, once injury news got out on Vereen and Amendola, New York bettors came out of the shadows and trimmed this line as many as 2.5 points. New England is already missing many key weapons and will need its unknown skill players to step up on the big stage.

“As expected the money kept on coming for the Jets with the line shifting to 11.5, which has slowed the bettors down,” Russ Candler, head of trading at UWin.com told Covers. “It might not be enough for the line to hold at 11.5 and we’re certain the line will go off around the -11 mark. The early morning money will have a big say on the final number.”

The total has also shrunk in the past day, dropping as low as 42.5 after opening as high as 44.5 points. Both the Jets and Patriots played under the number in their Week 1 contests, however, New England boasted the fast-paced offense and was the best over bet in the NFL last season, going 11-5 over/under.

“After it was announced Danny Amendola wouldn’t play, the total dropped to 43.5 with 68 percent still on over,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com told Covers.

"The punters have attacked the point totals, taking the overs. Shoot out here we come," says Candler.

The Patriots are seeing the majority of action on the moneyline, even more so after books trimmed their straight-up price from as high as -750 to -588. According to Sportsbook.com, 88 percent of moneyline wagers are on New England.

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

NFL Week 2 odds have been up since late Sunday night, leaving plenty of time for sharp and public money to move those numbers. We talk to sportsbooks about their recent adjustments in our NFL mid-week line report:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12.5, Move: -13, Move: -11

Books kept this AFC North rivalry under two touchdowns, with the Jets winning in Week 1 and the Patriots barely getting by the Bills. Early action jumped on New England at the lower spread but as injury news crept out of Foxborough – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola – bettors began to side with New York, forcing the current spread of Pats -12. Some books are even dealing New England -11 Thursday morning.

“Obviously the Pats are a public team, but with so much bad PR during the offseason as well as a rash of injuries and a list of receivers that nobody's heard of, the Patriots are not getting the kind of public action we're used to seeing,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “As more and more money is starting to show on the Jets, I wouldn't be surprised if we go to 11.5 at some point today or first thing tomorrow.”

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5, Move: -7.5

This spread has been chased all over the board with some books opening low and going high, and others opening high and getting bet down low. Any spots that opened the Eagles -7.5 took early money on the home side and were bet up as many as two points before buy back on the Bolts returned the line to its original post.

According to Russ Candler, head of trading for UWin.com, the most popular bet has been Philadelphia on the moneyline. The Eagles are currently priced at -333 to win straight up in their home opener Sunday.

“Bettors are betting on the Eagles as fast as Chip Kelly’s offense moves down the field,” Candler tells Covers. “That’s all come on the money line because -7.5 doesn’t look too juicy, especially after opening up at a crazy -9.5. Michael Vick still can’t be trusted.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders – Open: -5.5, Move: -6, Move: -5

This could be the worst game on paper for the 2013 NFL season. The Jaguars mustered only two points on a safety in Week 1 while the Raiders nearly knocked off the Colts, sparked by the crazy legs of QB Terrelle Pryor. Bettors have been hot and cold on Oakland as home favorite giving this many points - even if it is to Jacksonville.

“If things go as expected, Oakland won’t be giving this many points for the rest of the year at home, but as it’s Jacksonville, they have to be a fave,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “This line will probably go back towards Oakland, as there are more reasons to like them then there are the Jaguars. Early money is light on this one, but I expect us to be looking for a Jacksonville cover come Sunday.”

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some shops opened this game at Chiefs -1 after Dallas beat New York on Sunday Night Football. That’s been quickly bet up to a field goal. Bettors are impressed with new-look Kansas City, even if its Week 1 victory came courtesy of the lowly Jaguars. However, the oddmakers aren’t overly sold on K.C.

“We don’t care that (Tony) Romo and (Dez) Bryant are banged up for the Cowboys because at UWin we do not believe in Alex Smith,” says Candler. “The Cowboys against ‘Mr Check Down’ with a 2.5-point lead at +105? No contest here.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

Most books opened this game at a pick’em, putting some stock into the Cardinals and the new QB-WR combo of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, which combined for two scores in Week 1’s loss to the Rams. But this spread is swinging toward the road side, going as high as Detroit -2, and a lot of bettors are skipping the spread and taking the Lions’ moneyline odds.

“This line could go either way as we near the weekend, but should stay somewhat around a pick’em or slightly favor Detroit,” says Black. “This line has touched -2 during the last couple of days, but for the moneyline move only.”

Denver Broncos at New York Giants – Open: +2.5, Move: +6, Move: +4

After the Sunday night fiasco against the Cowboys, early public money took the 2.5-point spread all the way up as many as three and a half points before sharp New York action trimmed the line to as low as Denver -4 at some markets. The Giants, despite massive turnover troubles and zero rushing attack, still hung around to scare Dallas in Week 1.

“Even though we've seen 65 percent of the total action on the Broncos, we respect the early sharp money on the Giants and if anything, I could see us going to 5 or even 4.5. We won't be going back to-6,” says Stewart.

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NFL betting Week 2 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 2’s NFL action.

For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2’s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let’s dig in.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.

Key numbers

Week 2’s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.

Patriot games

Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.

More odds on the move

The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.

It’s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week’s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don’t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.

Talking totals

If you can’t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven’t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn’t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.

Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.

Who’s hot, who’s not

There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.

Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.

After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/09/13 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/08/13 13-*12-*1 52.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 18-*13-*1 58.06% +1850



Thursday, September 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 8:25 PM ET N.Y. Jets +11 500 POD # 2

New England - Under 42.5 500 POD # 1

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Chargers’ cross-country trip vs. Eagles’ frantic pace

Both of these teams are playing on a short week, having headlined the Monday doubleheader. But only one – San Diego – has to fly coast to coast in Week 2. The Chargers gassed out against the Texans in Week 1, giving up 24 points in the second half including 17 in the fourth quarter, and now face Chip Kelly’s rapid-fire attack.

New San Diego head coach Mike McCoy is trying to instill a similar plan of attack in his team this season, looking to push the tempo. That may be the Bolts’ worst enemy in Philadelphia. Getting into a track meet with the Eagles on a short week while traveling cross-country could leave little in the tank for the Chargers – again - come the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Cowboys’ rejuvenated front seven vs. Chiefs’ conservative attack

Dallas’ new 4-3 defense looked like it had been playing that scheme for years against the Giants Sunday night, picking off three passes and forcing three lost fumbles. Those six takeaways are a huge contrast to last season. The pass rush also looked good, getting to Eli Manning three times. The Cowboys' only weakness was to the big play, allowing New York to connect on long third-down conversions and strike for a 70-yard TD pass before the half.

Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may not have to worry as much about the long bomb this week. The Chiefs offense dinked-and-dumped its way to 28 points versus Jacksonville Sunday, averaging only five yards per pass and topping out on a 26-yard completion from QB Alex Smith. Kansas City’s new head coach Andy Reid knows the Cowboys well, but not this revamped defense that is wreaking havoc between the chains.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Saints’ downfield weapons vs. Bucs’ poor pass D and rusty Revis

Tampa Bay ranked last versus the pass in 2012 and was supposed to have plugged those holes with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis. However, Revis was a step behind in his first NFL game since last fall and the Bucs allowed Jets rookie QB Geno Smith to complete over 63 percent of his passes and connect for two TDs.

Enter Drew Brees, who has been the top gunslinger in the NFL the past five seasons. He put up 357 yards through the air and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta, and went for 307 yards and four TDs in a 41-0 ass-waxing of Tampa Bay last season. Revis can only cover one guy. Brees has more than enough weapons to choose from, with six players targeted four or more times in Week 1.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Broncos’ punishing pace vs. Giants’ dinged-up defense

The New York defense limps back home after a tough loss in Dallas Sunday night. The Giants have a laundry list of ailments, including CB Prince Amukamara, LB Dan Connor, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who obviously wasn’t 100 percent after offseason back surgery. Those injuries will be exploited even more when Peyton Manning puts his offensive pedal to the metal.

The Broncos’ no-huddle attack could strand those hobbled defenders on the field Sunday. They ran 68 plays during the Thursday’s night blowout over the Ravens and boasted the third-fastest pace in the NFL last year. Not only that, New York’s lack of a running game will have the Giants struggling to control the clock. And winning the time of possession battle is key when trying to slow down Manning. If he’s not on the field, he can’t hurt you. Expect to see more of one brother than the other in “The Manning Bowl”

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

Game 195-196: San Diego at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.330; Philadelphia 127.063
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7 1/2); Under

Game 197-198: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.172; Baltimore 139.231
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 39
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under

Game 199-200: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.239; Houston 135.588
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+9 1/2); Over

Game 201-202: Miami at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.193; Indianapolis 131.300
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under

Game 203-204: Carolina at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 133.877; Buffalo 127.706
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Over

Game 205-206: St. Louis at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 128.652; Atlanta 138.728
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Washington at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 134.717; Green Bay 139.816
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+8); Under

Game 209-210: Dallas at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 125.409; Kansas City 130.522
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Over

Game 211-212: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.521; Chicago 135.908
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.723; Tampa Bay 130.322
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over

Game 215-216: Detroit at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 128.590; Arizona 129.422
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Under

Game 217-218: Jacksonville at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 115.603; Oakland 126.441
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Oakland by 5 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-5 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: Denver at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.089; NY Giants 138.686
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Denver by 5; 55
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+5); Under

Game 221-222: San Francisco at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.811; Seattle 139.172
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 127.890; Cincinnati 137.181
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Sunday, September 15

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SAN DIEGO (0 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (0 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-127 ATS (-45.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (0 - 1) at GREEN BAY (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (1 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (0 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (1 - 0) at ARIZONA (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at SEATTLE (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 16

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PITTSBURGH (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 1) - 9/16/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 111-144 ATS (-47.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 2

Sunday, September 15, 2013

San Diego at Philadelhia, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 8-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Philadelphia: 1-8 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 2-10 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite
Baltimore: 25-12 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 2-10 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Miami at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Miami: 6-0 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Carolina at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 ATS after a playing a game where 19 total points or less were scored
Buffalo: 81-50 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3

St. Louis at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 8-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Atlanta: 55-36 ATS off a road loss

Washington at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Washington: WASHINGTON is 64-38 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Green Bay: 37-21 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game

Dallas at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 3-13 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
Kansas City: 28-13 ATS in home games in non-conference games

Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 19-6 OVER after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game
Chicago: 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 4:05 ET
New Orleans: 11-2 ATS off a home win
Tampa Bay: 31-11 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season

Detroit at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Detroit: 5-19 ATS as a road favorite
Arizona: 61-40 OVER in dome games

Jacksonville at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Jacksonville: 16-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 14 or more points
Oakland: 8-11 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog

Denver at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Denver: 18-6 OVER against NFC East division opponents
NY Giants: 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 34-53 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Seattle: 7-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game


Monday, September 16, 2013

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 8:40 ET ESPN
Pittsburgh: 30-15 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
Cincinnati: 10-22 ATS in home games in September

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Sharp Moves

September 13, 2013


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 2!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com's databases as of Thursday afternoon.

(Rotation #207/208) Washington/Green Bay Under 49.5 - The Redskins and Packers both had lousy defensive weeks in Week 1, but that has really just pushed the number in the game between these two far too high.

Opening Line: 49
Current Line: 49.5
Public Betting Percentage: 97% on the over

(Rotation #205) St. Louis +6.5 - The Rams are the 1-0 team in this bunch against the Falcons, but these two teams might be a lot more similar than the oddsmakers are letting on to. Someone clearly knows something in this game. Don't believe me? Check out the trends and the public betting percentages.

Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 76% on Atlanta

(Rotation #201) Miami +2.5 - The Colts looked horrid last week against the Raiders but still found a way to win the game. Miami wasn't exactly as awesome as could be against a bad Cleveland team, but wins on the road are hard to come by in this league, and it was a good result for the Fins. They could pull off the upset again this week, too.

Opening Line: Miami +3
Current Line: Miami +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #214) Tampa Bay +3.5 - Home underdogs, particularly within this range tend to do really well in NFL betting action, and this could be no exception. It's a divisional game, and the Bucs and Saints know all about each other and what they are going to try to do in this one. There's no doubt that New Orleans is more talented, but is it by enough to win by more than a field goal on the road?

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +3.5

Current Line: Tampa Bay +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 89% on New Orleans

(Rotation #214/215) New Orleans/Tampa Bay Under 47 - Same game. Over bettors are clearly looking at the fact that QB Drew Brees and company historically put up 30+ points in games like this one and perhaps not the fact that QB Josh Freeman still stinks. Oh yes, and New Orleans only put up 23 points last week against a suspect Atlanta defense at home.

Opening Line: 47
Current Line: 47
Public Betting Percentages: 93% on the over

(Rotation #216) Arizona +1.5 - The line move here is at least apparent, but anyone in Vegas will tell you that the move from pk to 1.5 isn't all that large. Arizona was a six-point dog last year when these two teams played, but the Lions got destroyed.

Opening Line: Pick 'Em
Current Line: Arizona +1.5
Public Betting Percentages: 80% on Detroit

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Tip Sheet

September 12, 2013


Chargers at Eagles (-7 ½, 55) - 1:00 PM EST

Week 1 Results:
-- Chargers lost to Texans, 31-28 as five-point home underdogs. San Diego blew a 28-7 lead in the second half, as the Bolts fell on a last-second field goal.
-- Eagles beat Redskins, 33-27 as four-point road underdogs. Philadelphia jumped out to a 26-7 halftime edge, while LeSean McCoy rushed for a game-high 184 yards and a touchdown.

Previous meeting:
San Diego knocked off Philadelphia, 31-23 to cash as one-point home favorites in 2009, even though Donovan McNabb threw for 450 yards for the Eagles. The Chargers last won in Philadelphia back in 1995, as San Diego is making just its fourth trip to the City of Brotherly Love in this span.

ATS notes:
The Eagles have won six of their last eight home games against AFC opponents since 2009, but Philadelphia owns a 3-5 ATS record in this stretch. In the last seven opportunities as a favorite of at least seven points, the Eagles have compiled a 1-6 ATS mark.

The Chargers cashed in four of six games as a road underdog last season, while posting a 2-2 SU/ATS record in contests played in the Eastern Time Zone. San Diego hasn't had much luck against NFC foes on the road with an 0-6 SU/ATS record since 2010, including three losses by double-digits.

Rams at Falcons (-6 ½, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Week 1 Results:
-- Rams rallied past the Cardinals, 27-24, but failed to cover as 3 ½-point home favorites. St. Louis overcame a 24-13 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Arizona for the third straight time.
-- Falcons fell to the Saints, 23-17 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Atlanta jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but scored only seven points in the final three quarters as the Falcons suffered their first road underdog loss since the 2011 playoffs against the Giants.

Previous meeting:
Atlanta drilled St. Louis at the Edward Jones Dome, 34-17 back in 2010 as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' The Falcons scored the final 18 points of the game after trailing, 17-16 in the third quarter, as Atlanta racked up 391 yards of offense. Atlanta has won each of the last three meetings at the Georgia Dome since 2004, but only one of those victories came with Matt Ryan at quarterback.

ATS notes:
Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams have put together a solid 11-3 ATS record in the underdog role, including a 7-2 ATS mark on the highway. Since the start of last season, St. Louis is 5-2 ATS off a win, while winning three of its past four contests straight-up (at Arizona, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay).

The Falcons have bounced back nicely off a loss since 2009, winning 13 straight games in this role, while posting a 10-3 ATS record. However, Atlanta failed to cover all three times last season at the Georgia Dome when laying at least six points.

Redskins at Packers (-7, 49 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Week 1 Results:
-- Redskins lost to Eagles, 33-27 as four-point home favorites. The defeat was the second in the last seven divisional contests for Washington, while the team cashed their second 'over' at home since last November.
-- Packers fell to the 49ers, 34-28 as five-point road underdogs. Green Bay went back and forth with San Francisco by exchanging touchdowns for the first three quarters, but San Francisco pulled away by scoring the final 10 points of the contest.

Previous meeting:
Washington squeezed by Green Bay in overtime, 16-13 as 2 ½-point home underdogs at FedEx Field in 2010. The Redskins overcame an early 10-0 deficit to stun a Packers' squad that would eventually win the Super Bowl that season. Washington makes its first visit to Lambeau Field since a 17-14 defeat in 2007.

ATS notes:
The Redskins made money as a road underdog last season with a 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU mark when receiving points away from the Nation's Capital. In Robert Griffin III's rookie season, Washington won all three games off a home loss, including outright underdog victories over Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

Green Bay has profited nicely at Lambeau Field since 2010 by compiling a 17-8 ATS record at home, including a 6-3 ATS mark last season. The Packers haven't suffered consecutive losses since 2010, while going 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS at home off a defeat since December 2008.

Cowboys at Chiefs (-3, 46 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Week 1 Results:
-- Cowboys held off the Giants, 36-31 to cash as 3 ½-point home favorites. Dallas scored two touchdowns on the defensive side and created six turnovers, but allowed New York to register 478 yards of offense.
-- Chiefs destroyed the Jaguars, 28-2 as 3 ½-point away favorites. Kansas City allowed an early safety on a blocked punt out of the end zone, but the Chiefs scored four unanswered touchdowns for their second opening week win since 2006.

Previous meeting:
Dallas got by Kansas City in overtime at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-20, but the Chiefs cashed as seven-point underdogs. The Cowboys rallied from a 10-point deficit to take a 20-13 lead with two minutes remaining, but the Chiefs forced overtime with a late touchdown. Miles Austin finished off a 250-yard performance with a 60-yard touchdown catch from Tony Romo to win it for the Cowboys.

ATS notes:
The Cowboys won outright as road underdogs last season against the Giants and Bengals, while cashing in a two-point defeat at Baltimore. Dallas has put together a 6-0 ATS record in the last six road games against AFC competition since 2010 with five of those contests decided by four points or less.

The Chiefs have failed to cover as a home favorite in their last six tries since 2010, while not even picking up a straight-up victory in this span (four losses by double-digits). However, Kansas City is 5-1 SU/ATS at Arrowhead against NFC opponents the past three seasons.

Broncos (-4 ½, 54 ½) at Giants - 4:25 PM EST

Week 1 Results:
-- Broncos took care of the Ravens, 49-27 as 7 ½-point home favorites to kick off the season. Peyton Manning tossed a career-high seven touchdown passes, which included five TD tosses in the second half.
-- Giants were tripped up by the Cowboys, 36-31 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak by New York at Dallas, while the last five meetings in Texas have sailed 'over' the total.

Previous meeting:
The Broncos shocked the Giants on Thanksgiving in 2009 with a 26-6 drubbing of New York as five-point home underdogs. The loss was the nail in the coffin for a New York club that began that season at 5-0, while the win for the Broncos snapped a four-game skid.

ATS notes:
Denver covered four of five games in Peyton Manning's first season as a road favorite, while scoring at least 26 points four times. The Broncos have won just two of their last eight away games against NFC competition, but that also included losses with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow at quarterback.

The Giants are listed as a home underdog for just the second time since 2009, as New York cashed as a seven-point 'dog in a 38-35 defeat to Green Bay in 2011. New York has won six of nine home openers under Tom Coughlin, but one of those defeats came to Manning and the Colts to kick off the 2006 season.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Panthers (0-1) at Bills (0-1)

Date: September 15, 2013 1:00 PM EDT


EJ Manuel earned a lot of praise after his NFL debut.

Cam Newton can certainly relate given his marvelous rookie year, though his season debut didn't go so well.

Both two-dimensional signal-callers look to help their teams bounce back from tantalizingly close losses to playoff teams from last season as the Buffalo Bills host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

The only quarterback selected in the first round of this year's draft, Manuel very nearly led the Bills to a stunning upset of New England last Sunday. He completed 18 of 27 passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, but Buffalo lost 23-21 on a late field goal.

"Obviously with every play I was continuing to get more and more confidence in myself and continuing to relax, stay calm throughout the whole thing and stay poised as a quarterback," said Manuel, who had three carries for 23 yards and didn't take a sack.

Though he had just 47 total yards as the Bills (0-1) went scoreless on their final five drives and blew a six-point lead, Manuel did help Buffalo overcome an early 10-point deficit and received mostly positive reviews.

"I thought he was pretty phenomenal," tight end Scott Chandler told the team's official website. "Protected the ball, threw the ball well."

Manuel could only hope to have the type of rookie season Newton did when he earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2011. Newton joined Drew Bledsoe as the only 22-year-old players in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards, and he rushed for 706 with 14 touchdowns.

Newton and the Panthers (0-1) didn't look so electric in Sunday's 12-7 home loss to Seattle. He did complete 16 of 23 passes but for a career-low 125 yards, and he gained 38 yards on five carries as Carolina fell to 4-14 when he fails to rush for 50.

"We did some things that were very exciting, but as an offense and as a team we just have to be more thorough to a degree and finish drives," Newton said.

The Panthers had three fumbles and lost two, including one by DeAngelo Williams eight yards from the end zone on what turned out to be their final possession.

"Offensively, we have to score more than seven points, that's what it all comes down to," offensive tackle Jordan Gross said.

Though Carolina averaged an impressive 5.2 yards per carry, coach Ron Rivera wasn't happy with how conservative the offense looked under first-year coordinator Mike Shula. After his team attempted only three passes of 10 yards or more Sunday, Rivera said his team needed to "look at getting the ball vertical."

"We have to create more of those opportunities," Rivera said.

Newton and the Panthers will look to take advantage of a depleted Bills secondary.

Already without two starters in cornerback Stephon Gilmore (wrist) and safety Jairus Byrd (feet), Buffalo lost Ron Brooks Sunday. Used as a third cornerback in passing situations, Brooks was scheduled to have surgery Tuesday on a broken right foot.

That's bad news for a Bills unit that struggled to get off the field Sunday, letting the Patriots convert 11 of 20 third-down opportunities, including two on the game-winning drive.

Buffalo, meanwhile, went 4 for 13 on third down and possessed the ball for 22:17 - its lowest total since Nov. 6, 2011.

"Obviously, you've got to get that fixed," running back Fred Jackson said. "We can't leave our defense out there. We can't go three-and-out and put them out there and make them have a long day."

While Jackson ran for 67 yards, Buffalo hopes for more from C.J. Spiller after he was held to 41 along with 14 yards on five catches. Spiller had 1,703 total yards last year.

Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson also had a rough day. After saying "I don't think (the Patriots) have got nobody to stop me," Johnson was held to three receptions for 39 yards.

Though it was Johnson who put the Bills ahead 21-17 with a third-quarter touchdown catch, he also dropped a short pass in the fourth quarter when he was wide open on third-and-1 from Buffalo's 49-yard line. The Bills would not approach midfield again.

"When you don't win a game, at the end of the day, that's when you get negative attention," Johnson said. "And I deserve it."

Carolina lost starting right guard Garry Williams for the season to a torn ACL and MCL in the opener, so Chris Scott will likely move into that spot as he faces a Bills team that cut him July 27. Scott made his first NFL start at left guard last Sunday and that position could be filled by former starter Amini Silatolu, who sat out Week 1 with a hamstring injury.

The Panthers haven't visited Buffalo since 2005, when they picked up their only win in five tries against the Bills.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Dolphins (1-0) at Colts (1-0)

Date: September 15, 2013 1:00 PM EDT


Andrew Luck spent much of his rookie season lacking adequate protection, forcing the Indianapolis Colts to invest in a revamped offensive line in hopes of keeping their franchise quarterback safe.

So excuse owner Jim Irsay if he's a little upset that No. 12 was sacked four times in the team's season opener.

The Miami Dolphins are well aware of how dangerous Luck can be when he remains upright, but they won't have to worry about the Colts' leading rusher when the teams meet Sunday in Indianapolis.

Luck was sacked 41 times in 2012, fourth-most in the league. No Colts quarterback has been sacked more times since Jeff George was dropped a team-record 56 times in 1991.

Irsay, general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano added tackle Gosder Cherilus and guard Donald Thomas through free agency, then drafted guard Hugh Thornton in the third round and center Khaled Holmes in the fourth in an effort to rebuild the line.

There weren't many immediate benefits, as Luck spent plenty of time on his back in Sunday's 21-17 win over Oakland. He finished 18 of 23 for 178 yards and two touchdowns, though his 19-yard TD run with 5:20 left proved to be the difference.

Irsay took to Twitter on Wednesday to let his displeasure with Luck's protection be known.

"We gotta protect #12 better...I DEMAND better," Irsay wrote.

Pagano, after being made aware of Irsay's post, agreed.

"As long as 12 is upright and on his feet, we've got a much better chance of winning than losing," Pagano said. "We will exhaust everything to take care of him and keep him clean."

That might be more difficult without Indianapolis' top rushing threat keeping defenses honest. The Colts learned on Friday that Vick Ballard would miss the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL while making a cut in practice a day earlier.

Former Giant Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to start in Ballard's place Sunday, and Indianapolis also promoted rookie Kerwynn Williams from the practice squad to the active roster.

"It's bad news," Bradshaw told the team's official website of Ballard's injury. "He's been working hard all year. It's just a freak accident. My heart goes out to Vick as hard as he's worked for this year. Our plan was to be that 1-2 punch.

"I'm set to go any time. That's what happens when this happens. I'll be ready."

While Bradshaw will try to keep the Colts' running game viable, the offensive line's biggest concern might be containing Miami defensive end Cameron Wake, who had 15 sacks last season and registered 2 1/2 in last week's 23-10 win at Cleveland.

"We're going to know where he's at, it's really no secret," Pagano said. "It's a different thing getting him blocked. He's very, very athletic, very powerful."

Wake had the Dolphins' only sack Nov. 4 against the Colts, who gave Luck enough protection for him to finish 30 of 48 for an NFL rookie-record 433 yards and two touchdowns in Indianapolis' 23-20 victory.

Miami is focused on making sure Luck doesn't have that type of breakout game again.

"He got us last year for over 400 yards so that wasn't good on our part," cornerback Nolan Carroll told the team's official website. "We've got to cover those guys man for man and we've got to keep him in the pocket. He won the game last week by running so we've got to contain him and try and get him off rhythm. When he's in a rhythm, that's when their offense is unstoppable."

Luck believes he'll have a more difficult time than last season against a Miami defense that intercepted three passes - Dimitri Patterson had two and Carroll one - against Cleveland.

"We'll continue to go back and watch and see maybe some things we did well last year," Luck said. "Obviously, they're a different team with one more year under their belt. They're probably a little more comfortable with everything and they obviously had a great Week 1 performance."

Ryan Tannehill, selected seven spots after Luck in the 2012 draft, finished 24 of 38 against Cleveland with a touchdown pass to Brian Hartline, who caught nine passes for 114 yards.

Tannehill went 22 of 38 for 290 yards and a TD last season against the Colts.

"Certainly we know what he did versus us last year," Pagano said. "He has the arm to make all the throws and he has some skill guys around him that can make plays. He can burn you."

One receiver capable of burning defensive backs is Mike Wallace, who signed a $60 million deal in the offseason but had just one catch for 15 yards in Cleveland. Wallace was visibly angry as he left the locker room, saying he didn't feel like talking about it.

He met Monday with coach Joe Philbin.

"We had a good conversation. We're good. We're ready to move on,' Wallace said. "It just wasn't a good day for me. I'm mad at myself because I didn't have a good game. Anytime I don't do well, I'm upset.'

Miami rushed for only 20 yards Sunday, its fewest since finishing with seven in a win over Minnesota on Nov. 19, 2006. Daniel Thomas ran eight times for 14 yards and a touchdown, while Lamar Miller gained only three yards on 10 carries.

"We're not going to lull ourselves to sleep thinking about how they ran for only 20 yards," Pagano said. "They're going to go to work to make sure they can run the football."

The Colts have won four straight meetings, each by fewer than seven points.