The Bum's Preseason Best Bets & Pod's ! + QB Rotations

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NFL Top 5: Long-shot rushing yardage leaders

Bettors who put their faith in Adrian Peterson last season were rewarded handsomely. Peterson racked up more than 2,000 yards on the ground, and comes into 2013 as the clear favorite to repeat as the league's rushing champion - but he'll have plenty of competition.

Here are five running backs with an outside chance of being this year's top rusher (odds courtesy CarbonSports.ag):

Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (+1,200)

Morris burst onto the scene as a rookie, going from a starter on a 1-11 Florida Atlantic team to the NFL's second-leading rusher (1,613 yards). With a year of professional experience under his belt and a quarterback in Robert Griffin III who keeps defenses honest both with his legs and his arm, Morris could be in for another huge year.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (+1,500)

Charles remains underappreciated by oddsmakers despite racking up the fourth-most yards in the league last season, buoyed by the third-highest yards-per-carry average among running backs. He's a perennial injury risk, but a season of relatively good health would almost certainly result in a bump up from the 285 carries he had last season - a development that would make him a legitimate threat to lead the league in yards.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (+3,000)

The emergence of Bernard Pierce as a solid backup has some wondering if Rice's days as the Ravens' primary offensive weapon are behind him. But he's still just 26, has three 1,200-yard seasons behind him and is coming off a reasonable workload (257 carries) in an offense that will need to rely on the run following the loss of wide receiver Anquan Boldin and tight end Dennis Pitta.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (+3,000)

All eyes will be on the diminutive power back as he makes his much-publicized return from a Lisfranc injury that limited him to just six games in 2012. Jones-Drew says he's feeling good - and as a guy who won the 2011 rushing title and will be playing for a new contract this season, that might just be enough to vault him to the top of the list.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (+6,500)

With 2012 starter Reggie Bush signing in Detroit, Miller comes into the season in stiff competition with Daniel Thomas for the No. 1 role. Miller is easily the faster and more elusive of the two, and a few big games early in the season could earn him the undisputed starting job - and with it, a shot at making his long odds pay off.

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NFL preseason primer: Friday game betting breakdown

Here's a quick look at what to expect in Friday's two NFL preseason tilts.

Seattle at Green Bay (+2, 43)

This is a rematch from the infamous “Fail Mary” game from last year’s regular season that in many ways set the tone for both teams’ regular seasons. For a second straight year, the Seahawks have looked great in the preseason. Last year’s 4-0 campaign introduced us all to the exploits of future MVP candidate (yes, you read that right) QB Russell Wilson, and so far they are 2-0 in 2013, making it six consecutive double digit wins in the preseason under head coach Pete Carroll. That’s a big reason why they are favored here on the road. After humiliating Denver last week, 40-10, the Seahawks have now outscored their two preseason opponents this year 71-20.

Green Bay is 1-1 in the preseason, having responded from a 17-0 shutout loss to Arizona in the opening game with a 19-7 win last week at St. Louis. Reportedly, Mike McCarthy was unhappy with the team’s practice on Wednesday. The coaching staff has not made a decision on how much time the starters will play Friday, but it figures to be longer than the first two games combined. QB Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a TD pass this preseason, albeit he’s only been on the field for four drives total. Both Packers’ starting wide receivers – Randall Cobb & Jordy Nelson - are not 100%.

Chicago at Oakland (+3.5, 38)

Both road teams are favored Friday night. The Bears and Raiders each come into this game at 1-1 SU. The Bears are 0-2 ATS, though the loss of Coach Lovie Smith has not affected the defense’s propensity to force turnovers. In two games, Chicago has an incredible eight takeaways. The problem though is new head coach Marc Trestman was brought in to improve QB Jay Cutler, who has not looked good so far. Last week saw Cutler play a full quarter, and while he completed 4 of 5 passes, the only receiver he targeted was Brandon Marshall. Though they put up 33 points in the win over San Diego, the offense had only 13 first downs and 185 total yards. Thanks to special teams and defense, they routinely benefited from good field position.

Oakland lost last week in New Orleans, 28-20 as six-point dogs. After one quarter, they trailed 17-0. The offensive line stunk, allowing QB Matt Flynn to be sacked five times. The defense was no better, allowing Saints QB Drew Brees to throw for 220 yards and direct five scoring drives. Making matters worse, the team suffered eight injuries according to Head Coach Dennis Allen.

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Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Eldrick Woods’ 2013 earnings on PGA Tour: $7,687,119. #2 on the money list: $5,006,408. I’m thinking he’s still dominant.

-- Thursday was fifth time this year Woods shot -4 or better in first round of a tournament; he won the other four times.

-- WR Mohamed Massaquoi got cut by the Jaguars, but was quickly scooped up by the Jets, which should help Mark Sanchez some.

-- Still weird to think that John Elway never played in a college bowl game; he would’ve his senior year, but loss in the Stanford Band game knocked the Cardinal out of bowl consideration.

-- Rays claimed David DeJesus off waivers from Washington; now we’ll find out how much the Nationals wanted him when they made the trade with the Cubs this week.

-- Odds to lead NFL in passing yards this year: Drew Brees 4-1, Aaron Rodgers 6-1, Matthew Stafford 13-2, Peyton Manning 7-1, Matt Ryan 10-1, Tom Brady 12-1.


*****

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: NFL food for thought..........

13) ESPN.com’s Jeff Goodman posted a list of top 25 college basketball tacticians from a survey he did of D-I coaches (roughly 2/3 of them) this summer at various summer basketball tournaments.

No Jim Boeheim on the list. Stunnin—well, not really stunning at all. He is a tremendous recruiter who plays the simplest of defenses with great athletes, then gets out of his players’ way and for the most part, lets them play. He’s been a great coach for Syracuse, wins a ton of games, made the school a freakin’ fortune, but putting him on the Olympic coaching staff as a tactician was/is comical.

12) Tom Brady was once Michigan’s 6th-string QB; 6th string!!!! Now he’s married to a woman who made $44M modeling last year. 44 million dollars, and you thought Vernon Wells was overpaid.

11) The new AAC is going to be an underrated basketball league this winter; Temple-UConn-Cincinnati-Marquette-Louisville make up half the league. That’s a tough conference.

We mentioned earlier this week that former Texas hoop coach Tom Penders tweeted that he thinks the AAC will get more teams in next spring’s NCAA tournament than the Big East will.

10) College basketball teams are allowed to take one overseas trip every four years; these can be really helpful for the extra practice time teams get and for the bonding experiences they provide.

They can also be costly, like when USC’s PG Jio Fontan tore up his knee in Brazil couple years ago, or this summer, when Butler’s Roosevelt Jones screwed up his thumb so bad that he’s already out for this coming season. Mostly they’re a very positive experience.

9) Kentucky moving its Louisville football game to the end of the regular season shows how little chance they think they have of ever getting to the SEC title game.

8) If Bobby Petrino wins at Western Kentucky and he should, given his track record and fact that Willie Taggart left him a strong program, how long does he stay at WKU? What big-time football school is going to take a chance on him? Maryland as it goes into the Big Dozen Conference?

7) Speaking of the Terrapins, basketball player Dez Wells got booted from Xavier because a girl charged him with sexual abuse, a charge that turned out to be so bogus, the prosecutor who investigated called the school’s banishment of Wells unfair, so now Wells is suing Xavier to help restore his good name. From what you read, he might win, or at least Xavier will have to settle out of court and pay him off to go away.

6) Slowest pitch in the major leagues this season? A 57 mph curveball thrown by the Cubs’ Carlos Villanueva.

5) Rough week for Oklahoma’s basketball program; first JC recruit Edson Avila was ruled ineligible for this season, then starting guard Je’Lon Hornbeak broke his foot and will be out 6-8 weeks, which puts him out of most of preseason practice. In unrelated news, Mr Hornbeak is an early favorite to make this season’s all-name team.

4) Up until the late 70’s, NFL teams used to play six exhibition games. Six!!! Why? Two is enough; wouldn’t mind if the league went to an 18-game regular season, with two preseason tilts, the way the CFL does.

3) Keith Gretzky, son of The Great One and future brother-in-law of Dustin Johnson, is now the Director of Amateur Scouting for Boston Bruins. Would’ve been better had his dad played for the Bruins, but you can’t have everything.

2) Keith’s brother Trevor Gretzky is a 20-year OF for the Kane County Cougars in the Cubs’ chain; he is hitting .240 this season, no homers, only three walks in 96 PA.

1) Travers Day in Saratoga is going to be a long one: post time for Race #1 is 11:30 am, post time for the 14th/last race is 6:51pm. Travers Night is always a good time to go out in Saratoga, located 25 miles north of Armadillo World Headquarters.

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Friday, August 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET Seattle -2 500 POD # 3

Green Bay - Under 43 500 POD # 4


Chicago - 10:00 PM ET Oakland +3.5 500 POD # 1

Oakland - Over 38 500 POD # 2

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Saturday's Betting Notes

August 24, 2013


Preseason Trends

-- Road teams are 3-1 in Week 3
-- Favorites are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in Week 3
-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in Week 3

Quick Hitters

-- Eight teams will be looking for their first preseason win on Saturday and there are two matchups that pit winless clubs against one another – Kansas City at Pittsburgh, Atlanta at Tennessee.
-- Five teams remain undefeated (2-0) in the preseason. Buffalo and Washington are two of those and they will square off in a late- afternoon battle from D.C. at 4:30 p.m. ET.
-- Three teams in action on Saturday, Tampa Bay (69), Jacksonville (64) and San Diego (64) have all struggled on the defensive side.
-- Philadelphia is the only road favorite listed on Saturday.
-- All totals are listed above 40 except the Giants-Jets matchup, which is hovering between 38 and 39 points.
-- Arizona has only surrendered seven points in the preseason.

Who’s the Boss?

Our friend “The SportsBoss” broke down QB rotations at the start of the preseason and listed seven units that he believed to have a distinct advantage in the exhibitions. Through two weeks of exhibition games, those teams were 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS.

Arizona (2-0)
Baltimore (2-1)
Carolina (2-1)
Cincinnati (2-0)
Cleveland (2-0)
New Orleans (2-0)
Washington (2-0)

The record dropped this week automatically with Carolina beating Baltimore 34-27 on Thursday. Even though you have five more possible winners with this angle in Week 3, you might want to tread lightly since starters are expected to receive more minutes in the dress rehearsals. However, Week 4 might present value with the seven teams above.

Week 3 Coaching Angles

New York Giants - Tom Coughlin is 2-7 ATS in his last nine dress rehearsals.
Cincinnati Bengals – Marvin Lewis is 2-8 ATS in his last 10 dress rehearsals.

Preseason Betting Trends from Tony Stoffo

Buffalo Bills - The Bills have started a money making preseason trend the last three years having seen the Over be the winning side in their last three dress rehearsal games with 38-7, 35-32, and 35-20 finals. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on Aug. 24th. I have to add here that Washington in their last 2 dress rehearsal games have seen a combined 112 points scored - So this play can turn into a preseason double unit play here on the Over.

Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last eight years the Falcons have gone a perfect 8-0 outscoring their opposition 187-61 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 24 when they play Tennessee on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 4-21 (16%) against the spread over the past six years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for new head coach Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not giving a dame about these preseason games. The Chiefs are 0-2 this season with Reid in control.

Expert Thoughts

Below is analysis on a handful of games that you would find in our pro football products on VegasInsider.com.

Washington vs. Buffalo – Joe Nelson

The Bills have faced some tough luck with rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel getting injured last week and likely to miss the remainder of the preseason, essentially handing the starting job to Kevin Kolb despite his marginal track record. This is a critical game for Kolb to impress as Manuel and rookie Jeff Tuel have provided most of the offensive success so far this preseason for the Bills. Buffalo is playing up-tempo on offense which will be hard for Washington to adjust to on a short week after playing Monday night. Coach Marrone was very upset after the Week 2 game despite a win as penalties were in the forefront. Look for a crisper performance all around this week from Buffalo. Mike Shanahan is known for a strong historical mark in preseason games, 2-0 this season after Monday’s 24-13 win over Pittsburgh. The short week will have a big impact on Washington as starters are only expected to clock about 20 plays in this game before going to deeper reserves and fighting out position battles. Coach Marrone and the Bills are 2-0 in the preseason and the defense has been aggressive, something that is rare in the preseason NFL. Buffalo is mixing looks with a both 3-4 and 4-3 packages and it has been effective at confusing teams through two weeks. The secondary has also been a bright spot for the Bills on defense. With Shanahan and his preseason track record, going 52-30 S/U in preseason games, this line is inflated even with key players likely to see limited time with the awkward scheduling for the Redskins.

Indianapolis vs. Cleveland – Jimmy Boyd

The Browns have had some solid matchup advantages in the first two games on the preseason schedule. They faced the first string defense from the Rams for just one quarter. In Week 2 they faced a Lions team that has one of the worst defensive secondaries in the league. The Colts are certainly not a defensive powerhouse, but they will be the toughest challenge the Browns have faced, and Indianapolis has the luxury of playing in front of their home crowd. Cleveland's defense is also in for a challenge when they face off against Andrew Luck and his wealth of solid receivers. The Colts have been keeping the starters on the field longer as we progress through the preseason schedule.

Tennessee vs. Atlanta – Pat Hawkins

The Falcons have excelled over the last several years in Week 3 of the preseason. They take this game seriously and keep the starters in for all of the first half. They have gone 8-0 ATS in the "dress rehearsal" game in the last eight years, look for the trend to continue as the Falcons have plenty of fire power on offense to extend a nice size lead.

Dallas vs. Cincinnati – Bruce Marshall

Even in preseason, the old "better team getting the points" theory has a lot of substance. Here is another case; having watched Dallas in all three games, I have been completely unimpressed, especially the offense which has put almost nothing together. Dolphin game very fluky, a loss to the lowly Raiders and outplayed worse than the score indicated by Arizona does not bode well. Perhaps Romo's recovery from the back issues have slowed the progress of the offense throughout summer, but execution has been spotty at best, and not sold on the Kiffin defense, which has faced a couple of sloppy foes and has yet to get severely tested. The best unit on the field is the Cincy defense, with the first string roughing up both Atlanta and Tennessee, and I really like the Bengals' QB rotation after Dalton goes out in the 3rd Q, as both Josh Johnson (especially Johnson) and John Skelton have moved the team. Cowboys 1-5 vs. line last six preseason game threes and just 4-7 vs. spread in exhibitions for Garrett since 2011.

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AFC South preview: Texans are head of the class

The Houston Texans will look to take advantage with Vegas posting a season win total of 10.5, two wins more than the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens.

AFC South Division

HOUSTON TEXANS

Team Theme: TALL TALL TEXANS

Riding high in the saddle following back-to-back AFC South titles, the Texans are once again the class of their division and arguably the entire AFC. After ascending to new heights last year, Houston did not stand still during the offseason when they acquired Hall of Fame FS Ed Reed and P Shane Lechler. They will combine with reigning NFL defensive player of the year J.J. Watt (81 tackles and 20.5 sacks) to form one of the best stop-units in the league, all under the lead of DC Wade Phillips. Its no coincidence the Texans’ defense has improved an average 73.5 YPG the last two years since it flamed out in a 6-win season in 2010. On the offensive front, coordinator Rick Dennison gobbled up dynamic WR DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson in the first round of the draft. He’ll work in tandem with star WR Andre Johnson. Along with thoroughbred RB Arian Foster, a tantalizing trio of skill players surrounds QB Matt Schaub. It’s like we mentioned on these pages last year: between Gary Kubiak’s playbook, Dennison’s offensive mind and Phillips’ stingy defensive schemes, the Texans are standing extra tall with sights on the Super Bowl these days.

Stat You Will Like: The Texans are 0-4 ATS away versus NFC West opponents in their franchise history.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (9/15)

IN THE STATS: The Texans are 24-12 ‘In The Stats’ the last two seasons.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Team Theme: WHAT GOES UP…

When the Colts jumped from 2-14 to 11-6 after selecting QB Andrew Luck with the first pick of the draft last year they recorded the 2nd biggest turnaround in NFL history. Only the 2008 Dolphins, who went from 1-15 to 11-5, made a larger leap. It should be noted that the other two teams in NFL annals making this much of an improvement regressed four and three games respectively the following year. The feeling here is regression is likely this season: despite their improvement, last year’s 11-win Colts actually allowed 12 YPG more than they gained. That and a case of Sophomore Blues appear to be lurking in the offing for Luck. Helping matters, Indy will face the 3rd softest strength-of-schedule opponents in 2013 (last year’s foes .461 overall), including four games with the NFC West (Colts are 7-1 SU against the division since 2005). Then again, Peyton Manning put up those numbers. The return of head coach Chuck Pagano, back from a bout with cancer, could offset a ton of history. Don’t forget: the Colts have made the playoffs 11 times the last 13 seasons. Stay tuned.

Stat You Will Like: The Colts own the weakest rushing attack in the AFC the last four years, averaging just over 95 RYPG.

PLAY AGAINST: at Kansas City (12/22)

IN THE STATS: The Colts were 0-5 ‘ITS’ during the final five games of the season last year.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Team Theme: SIGN, SIGN, EVERYWHERE A SIGN

Despite a fall from 5 wins to 2 last year, the worst in franchise history, signs of improvement abound. Consider: after being outgained in 11 of their first 12 games of the 2012 season, the Jaguars refused to raise the white flag when they won the stats in three of their final four games. In addition, after failing to gain more than 325 yards in any game in 2011, Jacksonville bettered that mark on seven different occasions last year. Toss in the fact that of the 17 teams who won 2 or fewer games the previous season, 16 of them have improved on their win total this millennium (witness the Colts and Rams last year) the following season. New head coach Gus Bradley brings a defensive pedigree to Jacksonville, a team that ranked 30th in total ‘D’ last season while allowing 444 points, a franchise-record. He was Seattle’s defensive coordinator the last four years and his unit allowed a league-low 15.3 PPG last season. New offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch returns to the NFL after two years at the University of Miami, banking on first-round pick OT Luke Joeckel’s ability to plow open running lanes for a healthy Maurice Jones-Drew.

Stat You Will Like: The Jaguars are 10-6 SU all-time versus the NFC West with only three losses by more than 4 points.

PLAY ON: at Seattle (9/22)

IN THE STATS: The Jaguars are 15-33 ‘ITS’ the L3Y, but 3-1 ‘ITS’ the L4 games of 2012.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Team Theme: BLUE COLLAR NETWORK

It was no surprise whatsoever to witness the blue-collar moves made by Mike Munchak and the Titans this offseason. After all, Munchak is a Hall of Fame offensive lineman and he did what he knows best – rebuild the offensive line – in order to keep his job a while longer in Tennessee. A three-game slippage with falling numbers on both sides of the ball sent Munchak into desperation mode when he signed G Andy Levitre (Bills) and selected G Chance Warmack (Alabama) in the first round of this year’s draft. The moves should benefit QB Jake Locker and RB Chris Johnson who, despite rushing for 1,000-plus yards in each of his five seasons in the league, has seen his numbers fall appreciably since his 2,006-yard performance in 2006. As a result, Johnson expects the Titans to become a ground-and-pound ‘run-first’ offense. It’s safe to assume that if Munchak is gone at the end of the year, so too will be Locker - a top-10 pick two years ago who, after witnessing last year’s successful rookie crop of quarterbacks, suddenly finds the clock ticking. After having last made the playoffs in 2008 and spending $100 million dollars on free agents, owner Bud Adams is expecting results… now.

Stat You Will Like: The Titans have allowed season-high, or 2nd-high, yards in 7 of their first 14 games under Munchak.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Houston (12/29)

IN THE STATS: The Titans won the stats in 4 of their final 6 games last season.


Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2013 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

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NFLX
Dunkel

St. Louis at Denver
The Broncos look to bounce back from last week's 40-10 loss to Seattle as they host the Rams on Saturday. Denver is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Broncos favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 24

Game 259-260: Buffalo at Washington (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 119.436; Washington 120.478
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

Game 261-262: NY Jets at NY Giants (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 113.701; NY Giants 125.882
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 12; 35
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2); Under

Game 263-264: Cleveland at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.326; Indianapolis 121.777
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

Game 265-266: Tampa Bay at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 121.138; Miami 117.741
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Over

Game 267-268: Kansas City at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 117.075; Pittsburgh 117.177
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2 1/2);

Game 269-270: Philadelphia at Jacksonville (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.435; Jacksonville 121.703
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under

Game 271-272: Atlanta at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.485; Tennessee 118.322
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Over

Game 273-274: St. Louis at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 114.665; Denver 125.470
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 40
Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under

Game 275-276: Cincinnati at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 124.555; Dallas 121.561
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Over

Game 277-278: San Diego at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 117.509; Arizona 126.452
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9; 37
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-4); Under


SUNDAY, AUGUST 25

Game 279-280: New Orleans at Houston (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 123.677; Houston 123.405
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Over

Game 281-282: Minnesota at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.095; San Francisco 126.930
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4 1/2); Under




NFLX
Short Sheet

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Buffalo at Washington, 4:30 ET NFL
Buffalo: Bills 3-7-1 ATS in preseason road games since 2008
Washington: Redskins 7-2 ATS in home preseason games last four+ seasons

New York Jets at New York Giants, 7:00 ET
New York Jets: The "road" team has beaten the pointspread in this matchup in each of the last four years
New York Giants: Under is 6-2 since 2005 in Giants' second home preseason game

Cleveland at Indianapolis, 7:00 ET
Cleveland: Browns haven't covered in three straight preseason games since 2004
Indianapolis: Over is 5-2 in last seven Colts' home preseason contests

Tampa Bay at Miami, 7:30 ET
Tampa Bay: Buccaneers 8-3 ATS in road preseason games since 2008
Miami: Over is 5-0 in Week 3 games for Dolphins last five preseasons

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Kansas City: Chiefs 3-19 ATS in preseason since 2008
Pittsburgh: Steelers 6-2 ATS at home since 2009 in first three weeks of preseason

Philadelphia at Jacksonville, 7:30 ET
Philadelphia: Eagles 15-29 ATS since 1993 when pointspread is a field goal or less either way
Jacksonville: Over is 7-3 since 2008 when Jacksonville plays in Weeks 3 & 4

Atlanta at Tennessee, 8:00 ET
Atlanta: Under is 6-2 for Falcons' road games in Weeks 2-4 since 2008
Tennessee: Titans 8-3 ATS at home last five seasons

St. Louis at Denver, 8:00 ET CBS
St. Louis: Rams 10-0 ATS in final two weeks of preseason since 2008
Denver: Over is 5-1-1 in Broncos' last seven home preseason games

Cincinnati at Dallas, 8:00 ET
Cincinnati: Over is 6-1 in Bengals' last seven road preseason contests
Dallas: Cowboys 1-4 ATS in the first home preseason game since 2008

San Diego at Arizona, 10:00 ET NFL
San Diego: Over is 5-2 in Chargers' road games since 2008 during last two weeks of preseason
Arizona: Cardinals 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 home preseason games versus AFC team


Sunday, August 25, 2013

New Orleans at Houston, 4:00 ET FOX
New Orleans: Saints 10-2 ATS in last 12 road preseason games
Houston: Over is 4-1-1 in Texans' last six preseason games

Minnesota at San Francisco, 8:00 ET NBC
Minnesota: Under is 8-3 since 2008 in Vikings' road preseason games
San Francisco: 49ers 6-0 ATS in home preseason games versus NFC teams since 1993

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NFL preseason primer: Saturday game betting breakdown

Here's a quick look at what to expect in Saturday's NFL preseason tilts.

Buffalo at Washington (-1, 42.5)

Injuries at the quarterback position are the story here for this late Saturday afternoon start time. Both the Bills and Redskins are 2-0 SU/ATS in the preseason, but the respective moods surrounding both teams are a bit darker than you’d think. In Buffalo, EJ Manuel appeared to be well on his way to winning the starting QB job in his rookie season. But after completing 26 of 33 passes for 200+ yards in two games, swelling was discovered in his left knee & he’s been lost for the remainder of the preseason. This leaves Kevin Kolb to start here. After injuring himself by slipping on a wet practice mat and missing the opener, Kolb didn’t look too good last week, throwing an INT and completing only 13 of 21 passes.

The Robert Griffin III saga has grabbed all the headlines in the Nation’s capital during training camp. Though he reportedly took reps against the starting defense in practice, RG3 has still not been cleared for the regular season opener against Philadelphia on September 9th (Monday night game). This is problematic because backup Kirk Cousins sprained his knee in Monday’s 24-13 win over Pittsburgh. Rex Grossman is the only other QB currently on the roster. The short week certainly is no help to Washington here.

NY Jets at NY Giants (-2.5, 38)

This annual clash is always one of the “most anticipated” games of the preseason, if for no other reason that it’s New York vs. New York. Because they’ve really never accomplished anything since Super Bowl III, the game was always taken more seriously by the Jets, who hold a 14-5 ATS edge since 1993. However, the Giants dominated last year’s game, winning 26-3. That was actually the second and not the third preseason game for both teams though.

After losing their opener to the Lions, the Jets won last week against the Jaguars 37-13, but that score is somewhat misleading as they outscored Jacksonville 27-0 after halftime. Rookie Geno Smith will get the start at QB this week over Mark Sanchez and this is his moment to try and earn the starting gig. Sanchez has been his usual uneven self this preseason, looking good at times and then turning the ball over like always. Smith did not play last week after injuring his ankle in the first game.

Cleveland at Indianapolis (-2.5, 42.5)

The Browns are 2-0 and have surprisingly looked pretty good for first year head coach Rob Chudzinski. They have beaten both St. Louis and Detroit at home, and the most promising bit of news has been the play of second year QB Brandon Weeden, who has gone a combined 18 of 25 for 229 yards and three touchdowns. To no one’s shock, he was officially named the team’s starter for the regular season, mid-week. In both games the Browns have led 17-0. Running back Trent Richardson saw game action for the first time last week. Unfortunately, several Cleveland players suffered serious injuries last week, including Richardson’s backup (Dion Lewis) as well as 1st round draft choice Barkevious Mingo.

The Colts responded nicely from a 44-20 drubbing at the hands of Buffalo in their opener to defeat the Giants on the road last week, 20-12. The defense (obviously) played much better, recording six sacks. QB Andrew Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes. Putting Indianapolis at somewhat of a disadvantage here is the fact they will have had two less days to prepare.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-3, 40)

During the week, we all learned how Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton felt about Bucs QB Josh Freeman. Still though, it is widely presumed that he will win the starting job over rookie Mike Glennon out of North Carolina State. Tampa Bay is 0-2 this preseason and last week’s final score vs. New England was somewhat misleading as the team trailed 25-10 going into the fourth quarter. The week previous they were dismantled at home by Baltimore 44-16.

Miami is playing its fourth preseason game, but its first at home. After opening the NFL season with an outright loss to the Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game, they have split a pair of road games, first winning at Jacksonville 27-3 and then losing last week at Houston 24-17. The worst news of all has been the loss of tight end Dustin Keller for the year on a much debated shot to the knee. On a positive note, second year QB Ryan Tannehill and newly acquired WR Mike Wallace connected on three passes for 58 yards last week.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-3, 40)

Both of these teams are 0-2 so far and have scored 13 points in each of their games. Thus, it hasn’t been pretty for either of these playoff hopefuls. The short week does the Steelers no favors here, though they will at least get to play at home. Rookie running back Le’Veon Bell won’t play for the remainder of the preseason after getting hurt last week at Washington, but at least the injury doesn’t appear to be as bad as was originally feared. But it has been a sloppy two games for Mike Tomlin’s team.

One would think that the Chiefs would really want to get Andy Reid a win in his first preseason with the team. But then again, they failed to ‘circle the wagons’ last week for QB Alex Smith, who was facing his former team, the San Francisco 49ers. Playing without injured running back Jamal Charles, the only touchdown Kansas City scored last week came via a kick return. Smith did not look very good. Surprisingly, after playing one another, the Chiefs and 49ers made a trade. They exchanged receivers Jonathan Baldwin and AJ Jenkins, both of whom have been considered disappointments in their short careers.

Philadelphia at Jacksonville (+3.5, 43)

Mike Vick has officially been named the starter for the Eagles, which seems to be the right call as his skill set seems better suited to run Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense compared to Nick Foles. This will be Philadelphia’s first road game under Kelly as they split a pair of home games against the Patriots and Panthers. It will be interesting to see how the quarterbacks perform now that the competition has been settled. The defense was much better last week, holding Carolina to only nine points after being shredded by Tom Brady and New England in the opener. Five-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman Jason Peters is set to return to the lineup here and is scheduled to play about three quarters.

For the Jaguars, it’s the same old story. This team simply cannot put points on the board. They are 0-2 and have scored only 16 points total. The much maligned Blaine Gabbert has officially been named the starter by 1st year Head Coach Gus Bradley, but I found that interesting as he’s injured and there are concerns about him being ready to practice for the regular season opener. Gabbert did play well last week vs. the Jets and the team did lead 13-10 at halftime before getting blown out in the second half.

Atlanta at Tennessee (-3, 42.5)

Both teams here are 0-2, but with the Falcons that’s a bit misleading as their backups stink and blew a 23-7 fourth quarter lead last week at Baltimore. Both Julio Jones and Stephen Jackson looked good in limited action last week. With the first team offense getting extended playing time this week, you have to like Atlanta’s chances more. However, special teams have been an issue so far as they have given up a touchdown on a punt return each of the first two games.

Tennessee is a team that I don’t have much regard for heading into the regular season and it’s not been a very good first two games for them at all. The first team offense has yet to generate a touchdown and the kicking game was a disaster last week in Cincinnati with three missed field goals. The Titans defense allowed the most points in the league a year ago and again looks suspect coming into 2013. Wide receiver Kendall Wright is injured. Just about the only positive has been the re-tooled offensive line.

St. Louis at Denver (-6.5, 43.5)

Big line here as the injury-riddled Broncos host the 0-2 Rams. After pulling out an ugly 10-6 victory over San Francisco in the opener, the Broncos were flat out embarrassed last week by Seattle, losing 40-10. This will be their first home game of the preseason. Denver defenders have been dropping like flies as of late, most notably now Von Miller, who will be suspended for the first six regular season games. At least Peyton Manning will see his most action of the preseason this week, thereby giving the team a chance.

The Rams issues have been on offense as they generated only seven points last week in a loss to Green Bay, at home. That lone touchdown came in the fourth quarter as once again the first team offense failed to impress. St. Louis was 1 of 14 on third down vs. the Packers and 0 for 3 when going for it on fourth down.

Cincinnati at Dallas (-2.5, 43.5)

The Bengals are becoming a trendy pick to contend not just in the AFC North, but to be one of the very best teams in the conference as well. They are 2-0 so far in the preseason and that’s playing without stud receiver AJ Green, who may play this week here in Dallas. I like what I see from rookie running back Giovani Bernard. The first team offense put up 220 total yards in last week’s win over Tennessee. In two games, the Bengals have averaged 431.5 yards of offense as a whole.

This will be the fourth preseason game for the Cowboys and their first at home. Since winning the Hall of Fame Game, they have lost at both Oakland and Arizona and looked unimpressive in doing so, scoring a combined 24 points. The lone touchdown last week came in the fourth quarter. The first team offense has yet to account for a single point. The ugliest part of last week’s 12-7 loss were the six turnovers.

San Diego at Arizona (-4, 40.5)

If one thing is clear with the Cardinals, it’s that they have a solid defense. In two games, they have given up just seven points and that came on a touchdown in the fourth quarter last week vs. Dallas. As mentioned in the Cowboys writeup, they forced six turnovers. Now 2-0 in the preseason for first year coach Bruce Arians, they host a San Diego team that’s 0-2 and not looked very good. This would seem to be a favorable matchup for the home team.

The Lightning Bolts appear to be headed for a long season in their first year under Mike McCoy. While both Cardinals’ preseason games have gone Under, both Chargers games have gone Over. The San Diego defense has allowed 64 total points thus far. On offense, there were four turnovers in last week’s 33-28 loss at Chicago. At least running back Ryan Matthews looked decent, carrying the ball nine times for 45 yards. Don’t forget that both starting receivers are sidelined with injuries.

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Saturday, August 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 4:30 PM ET Washington +1 500 POD # 1
Washington - Under 42.5 500

Cleveland - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland +2.5 500 POD # 3
Indianapolis - Over 43 500

N.Y. Jets - 7:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -2 500 POD # 2
N.Y. Giants - Over 38.5 500

Kansas City - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500
Pittsburgh - Under 40 500

Tampa Bay - 7:30 PM ET Miami -3 500 POD # 4
Miami - Over 40 500

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia -3.5 500
Jacksonville - Over 43.5 500

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET Denver -6.5 500 POD # 6
Denver - Under 43 500

Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Cincinnati +2.5 500 POD # 1
Dallas - Over 43.5 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee -3 500
Tennessee - Under 43 500

San Diego - 10:00 PM ET Arizona -4 500 POD # 5
Arizona - Over 40.5 500

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
08/23/13 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
08/22/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
08/19/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
08/18/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
08/17/13 7-*4-*1 63.64% +*1300 Detail
08/16/13 7-*1-*0 87.50% +*2950 Detail
08/15/13 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
08/11/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/10/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/09/13 7-*9-*0 43.75% -*1450 Detail
08/08/13 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*300 Detail
08/04/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals
42-*31-*1 57.53% +3950


Saturday, August 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 4:30 PM ET Washington +1 500 POD # 1
Washington - Under 42.5 500

Cleveland - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland +2.5 500 POD # 3
Indianapolis - Over 43 500

N.Y. Jets - 7:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -2 500 POD # 2
N.Y. Giants - Over 38.5 500

Kansas City - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500
Pittsburgh - Under 40 500

Tampa Bay - 7:30 PM ET Miami -3 500 POD # 4
Miami - Over 40 500

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia -3.5 500
Jacksonville - Over 43.5 500

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET Denver -6.5 500 POD # 6
Denver - Under 43 500

Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Cincinnati +2.5 500 POD # 1
Dallas - Over 43.5 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee -3 500
Tennessee - Under 43 500

San Diego - 10:00 PM ET Arizona -4 500 POD # 5
Arizona - Over 40.5 500

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AFC West Preview: Will Denver justify highest win total?

The AFC West finds the Denver Broncos with the highest season win-total, 11.5, in the NFL this season. The question begs whether coaching changes in Kansas City and San Diego will thwart Peyton Manning’s return to the postseason.

AFC West Division

DENVER BRONCOS

Team Theme: PEYTON’S RACE

Realizing star QB Peyton Manning is not getter any younger (who is?), the Broncos were busy in the offseason making moves to bolster a run to the Super Bowl now. WR Wes Welker moves over from New England while G Louis Vasquez leaves San Diego’s starting lineup for Denver’s. In addition, VP of Football Operations John Elway slapped the franchise tag on OT Ryan Clady. Meanwhile, former Broncos QB coach Adam Gase assumes the new offensive coordinator role with Mike McCoy taking over the reins in San Diego. Jack Del Rio returns as the defensive coordinator, the first time Denver has had the same DC in consecutive seasons since 2005-06. The selection of Wisconsin’s Montee Ball in the 2nd round of the draft could be a coup as the workhorse running back also blocks and has excellent hands, prerequisites for working in a Manning backfield. It all works provided Denver’s offensive line stays healthy. So does the schedule with the Broncos facing, by far, the softest strength-of-schedule opponents in 2013 (last year’s foes .430 overall). It’s Super Bowl or bust for the Broncos.

Stat You Will Like: Peyton Manning’s 37 TD passes and his 105.8 QB rating at the end of the season were the 2nd best numbers of his career.

PLAY ON: as a dog at New England (11/24)

IN THE STATS: The SU stat winner was 15-2 SU in Broncos games last season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Team Theme: ON THE CORNER OF 12TH ST AND VINE

Much like the 2-win Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chiefs are resigned to the fact that there is no place to go but up in 2013. After turning over half the roster, the pieces are in place with Andy Reid, the lone new coach in the league this year with previous NFL head coaching experience. His team sports a downy-soft non-division strength-of-schedule in 2013, with Chiefs’ opponents going 74-90 (.451) last season. In addition, Reid is 140-102-1 overall in his NFL career with five NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl appearance. An upgrade at the quarterback position (Alex Smith in; Matt Cassel out, and pistol-guru Chris Ault on board as a consultant), along with the top pick in this year’s draft (OL Eric Fisher) and offensive weapons Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe indicate certain signs of improvement on that side of the ball. The defense was bolstered by the free agent signings of CBs Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson, plus DE Mike DeVito. Along with talented pass rusher Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson and DB Eric Berry, Andy is feeling just dandy about his move from Philadelphia to Kansas City. Look out Kansas City, here he comes.

Stat You Will Like: The Chiefs had six Pro Bowlers last season.

PLAY ON: at Buffalo (11/3)

IN THE STATS: After going 5-0 ‘ITS’ to start 2012, the Chiefs went 2-9 ‘ITS’ the final 11 games.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Team Theme: BUY A PROGRAM

In a season of makeovers, the Raiders are laying down a new foundation. QB Carson Palmer and his favorite target, TE Brandon Myers, are gone along with WR Darrius Heyward-Bey. On the defensive front, DT Tommy Kelly and S Michael Huff have departed. In fact, only ONE player from the front seven returns. (That’s what happens after tying a franchise low with 25 sacks last season.) It’s likely nine of 11 positions on defense will find players with new names on the back of their jerseys. Meanwhile, free agent QB Matt Flynn replaces Palmer but it should be noted Flynn, after inking a big free agent contract last year, failed to beat out 3rd-round QB Russell Wilson at Seattle. However, don’t be surprised if Flynn isn’t pushed for the starting job by Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) who highly respected QB coach-guru Terry Shea insists, “makes all the throws and will be a good player in this league for a long while.” And if all this isn’t enough, the Raiders signed free agent WR-KR Joshua Cribbs, a three-time Pro Bowler. Finally, in an effort to avoid blackouts, Oakland removed 9,882 seats from the O.co Coliseum, reducing the seating capacity to 53,250 (the lowest in the league).

Stat You Will Like: The Raiders are 15-3 ATS as division road dogs the last six seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Pittsburgh (10/27)

IN THE STATS: The Raiders have allowed over 400 yards in 10 of 16 home games the L2Y.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Team Theme: JUST IMAGINE

When new head coach Mike McCoy, Denver’s former offensive coordinator, interviewed for the San Diego job, he brought along binders full of detailed plans and visualization and won over the Chargers’ top brass. It wasn’t hard, considering San Diego has missed out on the playoffs each of the last three years. Make no mistake: this is as close to a major overhaul as the Chargers have seen in quite a while. Included was a plan to build a fortress around Philip Rivers to better protect the franchise quarterback. Rivers was sacked 49 times last season, trailing only Aaron Rodgers (51) for most takedowns. The Chargers immediately signed two free agent guards and used their first pick in the draft on OT D.J. Fluker of Alabama. Just as important, they named former Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt as the new offensive coordinator to call the plays, a marked difference from former coach Norv Turner who handled both duties. Whisenhunt has coached QBs Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner and figures to revive Rivers’ career. Newest additions to the Chargers defense, which improved 20 YPG in 2012, are Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney and Notre Dame LB Manti Te’o, who fills a need at ILB. We can only imagine he will.

Stat You Will Like: The Chargers were 6-13 SU and 7-12 ATS in Eastern Time Zone cities with Norv Turner.

PLAY AGAINST: at Oakland (10/6)

IN THE STATS: The Chargers were outgained in each of their last seven games in 2012


Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2013 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

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NFL preseason primer: Sunday game betting breakdown

Here's a quick look at what to expect in Sunday's two NFL preseason tilts.

New Orleans at Houston (-2.5, 43.5)

Both teams here a 2-0 SU/ATS. The Saints have played both of their games so far at home and only managed to squeak by both the Chiefs and Raiders, two teams that combined for only six wins last season. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Drew Brees and the first team offense looked great last week, racing out to a 23-0 lead vs. Oakland. Brees completed 14 of 18 passes for over 200 yards and wound up leading five different scoring drives. He had some praise for the play of his wide receivers. Only some sloppy second half play from the Saints resulted in the game being close. The defense had seven sacks.

We still have not seen Arian Foster yet this preseason for the Texans. He was taken off the PUP list Wednesday and practiced with the team for the first time. However, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the team’s 1st round draft choice back in April, left last week’s game with a concussion. He will not play here. He had looked good so far in camp as the team desperately tries to develop a No. 2 WR next to Andre Johnson. On defense Brian Cushing returned last week and played 10 snaps. These teams have met in the preseason each of the last two seasons with the home team winning and covering each time. Last year’s game in New Orleans was also the “Dress Rehearsal” game.

Minnesota at San Francisco (-3, 39)

Neither of these playoff teams from last year has looked very good so far, especially the 0-2 Vikings, who lost last week in Buffalo 20-16. The game wasn’t even really that close as Minnesota scored 13 points in the fourth quarter. In the first half, the offense gained only 74 yards total offense and four first downs. Quarterback play remains a concern with Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel not exactly setting the world on fire. Ponder played five series last week and completed only 5 of 12 passes for 53 yards.

San Francisco has also struggled offensively, only scoring 21 total points in two games. After four turnovers cost them in the opener against Denver, they did bounce back to defeat Kansas City 15-13 last week on the road. QB Colin Kaepernick has seen very little time thus far. The defense has been impressive however. Last week alone, they registered seven sacks, eight hurries and nine tackles for loss. Newly-signed kicker Phil Dawson has been impressive so far, connecting on five of six attempts, including a pair of 55-yarders against Kansas City.

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NFLX
Dunkel

Minnesota at San Francisco
The Niners look to follow up last week's 15-13 win over Kansas City as they host Minnesota on Sunday. San Francisco is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Niners favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 25

Game 279-280: New Orleans at Houston (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 123.677; Houston 123.405
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Over

Game 281-282: Minnesota at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.095; San Francisco 126.930
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4 1/2); Under




NFLX
Short Sheet

Sunday, August 25, 2013

New Orleans at Houston, 4:00 ET FOX
New Orleans: Saints 10-2 ATS in last 12 road preseason games
Houston: Over is 4-1-1 in Texans' last six preseason games

Minnesota at San Francisco, 8:00 ET NBC
Minnesota: Under is 8-3 since 2008 in Vikings' road preseason games
San Francisco: 49ers 6-0 ATS in home preseason games versus NFC teams since 1993

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Sunday Preseason Tips

August 25, 2013

Saturday night recap: Favorites put together a 6-4 straight-up and 5-5 against the spread mark in the "dress rehersal" games last night. The Bucs, Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos all grabbed their first preseason victory, as Tampa Bay and Kansas City rallied late to cash in the road underdog role. The 'under' went 5-4-1 last night, as the lone 'push' came in the Falcons/Titans game which closed at 43 (27-16, Tennessee).

In Week 3, favorites are profiting with a 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS mark, while the 'over' sits at 7-6-1 heading into Sunday's action.

Saints at Texans - 4:00 PM EST - FOX - Click here for winners

New Orleans: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Houston: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS

The Saints have taken care of their business at home in the preseason with a pair of victories over AFC West foes, Kansas City and Oakland. New Orleans' offense outgained Kansas City by 212 yards and Oakland by 184 yards, while jumping out to a 23-0 advantage over the Raiders last Friday night. The Saints held on for a 28-20 victory to cash as six-point favorites, as New Orleans and Oakland eclipsed the total of 46.

The Texans play their second consecutive home contest after downing the Dolphins last Saturday, 24-17 as 3 ½-point favorites. All three Houston quarterbacks (Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and T.J. Yates) threw a touchdown pass, while the Texans combined for 303 yards through the air. The strong first half showing against Miami was a nice contrast after outscoring Minnesota, 17-0 in the second half in the preseason opener.

New Orleans has won and covered each of their last six "dress rehersal" games dating back to 2008, including a 34-27 triumph over Houston as a 2 ½-point favorite last season. The Saints have owned the Texans in the preseason recently, grabbing three of the past four meetings.

Houston has dominated in the preseason since 2011 by posting an 8-2 SU/ATS record, even though one of those losses came to New Orleans in Week 3 last season. The Texans have struggled in the "dress rehersal" game the last five preseasons by winning just twice in five attempts, while Houston seeks only its second 3-0 start in the exhibition season in franchise history.

Expected Quarterback Rotations:
New Orleans: D. Brees, S. Wallace, R. Griffin
Houston: M. Schaub, C. Keenum, T.J. Yates

Handicapper Analysis: Stephen Nover - The Saints defense surrendered the most yards in NFL history last year. They are in a transition phase under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. This will be their toughest foe by far, having so far played just the Chiefs and Raiders. Schaub is a big step above Alex Smith and Matt Flynn. He is adept at burning blitzing foes, which the Saints are going to be doing under the aggressive Ryan.

Vikings at 49ers - 8:00 PM EST - NBC - Click here for winners

Minnesota: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
San Francisco: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Both these playoff teams from last season have struggled to put up points through two exhibition contests. The 49ers have scored just 21 points so far in the preseason, but found a way to squeeze past the Chiefs last Friday, 15-13. San Francisco cashed outright as 2 ½-point road underdogs, as the 49ers pulled out the victory with a late touchdown pass by former University of South Florida standout B.J. Daniels. The Chiefs' lone touchdown came on a kickoff return, while the Niners received a pair of 50+ yard field goals from Phil Dawson.

The Vikings are looking to sharpen up their game tonight after dropping a 20-16 decision at Buffalo as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The contest wasn't as close as the final score indicates, as Minnesota fell behind, 20-3 before the Vikings found the end zone twice in the final quarter. Minnesota has been outgained by at least 130 yards in each loss, but are expected to have MVP Adrian Peterson on the field tonight after missing the first two games.

The Niners are 1-1 SU/ATS under Jim Harbaugh in the "dress rehersal" games, as San Francisco won at Denver last season, 29-24 as a short underdog. San Francisco owns a 3-1 SU/ATS record in Harbaugh's tenure as a home favorite in the preseason, with the lone defeat coming to Denver in this season's exhibition opener.

Minnesota is just 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the last six Week 3 preseason contests since 2007. Only one of those victories came on the road, a 17-10 triumph as three-point underdogs at Houston in 2009.

Expected Quarterback Rotation:
Minnesota: C. Ponder, M. Cassel, M. Bethel-Thompson
San Francisco: C. Kaepernick, C. McCoy, S. Tolzien

Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - The Vikings are 13-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in preseason games with a winless record when playing off a loss of 3 or more points, including 12-0-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of less then seven points. The 49ers 0-5 SU/ATS in games off a SU underdog win when facing a winless team in the preseason.

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Sunday, August 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 4:00 PM ET New Orleans +2.5 500 POD # 1


Houston - Under 43.5 500 POD # 2


Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco -3 500 POD # 4


San Francisco - Over 39 500 POD # 3