The Bum's Preseason Best Bets & Pod's ! + QB Rotations

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Best over/under bets of NFL preseason Week 2

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 2 of the exhibition schedule.

Records as of 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 2 over bets

Green Bay Packers (12-5 SU, 13-4 O/U in Week 2)

The Pack finished just 1-3 O/U in the 2012 preseason, but their lone 'over' result was Week 2. Green Bay was shutout 17-0 by the Arizona Cardinals in their disappointing preseason opener a week ago. Needless to say, the Pack had issues offensively, especially running the ball. QB Aaron Rodgers was effective in his one series, an 11-play, 86 yard drive. But it ended in futility after failing to punch the ball in the end zone on fourth-and-goal. The Packers have played over the total in seven-straight Week 2 preseason games. They will travel to St. Louis to face the Rams Saturday. The total is currently 40.5.

Oakland Raiders (5-11 SU, 11-5 O/U in Week 2)

The Raiders are already 1-0 O/U after a 19-17 victory (total of 35.5) over the Dallas Cowboys in their preseason opener. Matt Flynn is on track to be the starting QB to begin the season, but Terrelle Pryor looked good against the Cowboys and gives the offense some different options when he is under center. The Raiders are in New Orleans to battle the Saints Friday. The total is currently 40. 5.

*The Raiders did not have a game in Week 2 in the 1999 preseason.

Best NFL preseason Week 2 under bets

Miami Dolphins (10-7 SU, 6-11 O/U in Week 2)

After a 24-20 loss in the Hall of Fame Game, a result that went 'over' the total, the Dolphins kept the scoreline under the total with a 27-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. QB Ryan Tannehill looked good (5-for-9, 75 yards, one TD) but there is some concern as to why he didn't throw to new WR Mike Wallace - something they may look to remedy. Miami will face the Houston Texans in a Week 2 matchup Saturday. The total is 40.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-12 SU, 7-10 O/U in Week 2)

The Chiefs and New Orleans Saints played 'under' the 36.5-point total in Week 1 in a 17-13 Saints victory. The Chiefs offense looked promising going 80 yards on 14 plays in the opening drive. Alex Smith looked great completing 7-for-8 passes for 68 yards in his lone drive. The Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers Friday. The total is currently listed at 40.

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NFL Week 2 preseason primer: Thursday betting preview

A look at the essentials for bettors heading into Thursday's action in the NFL, including how long starters are expected to play for each team.

Detroit at Cleveland (Pick, 41)

The Cleveland Browns won their preseason opener, 27-19 at home against the St. Louis Rams. This will be the final preseason home game for first year head coach Rob Chudzinski. Quarterback Brandon Weeden looked good last week, completing 10 of 13 passes for 112 yards and led a pair of scoring drives. Cleveland's starters outscored their St. Louis' counterparts 17-0. A decision on whether or not RB Trent Richardson will play this week will not be made until sometime Wednesday.

Like Cleveland, Detroit won its preseason opener, beating the Jets 26-17. Expect starters for both teams to play about the same amount of time as last week, if not a bit more. This is an annual preseason clash for the "Great Lakes Cup." The road team has won the last two years and Detroit holds a slight 6-5 ATS edge since '02.

Atlanta at Baltimore (-3.5, 41)

Very different results for these teams last week. The Falcons continued their preseason woes with a 34-10 home loss to Cincinnati. They are just 7-14 SU (straight up) in the preseason under Mike Smith. Atlanta has released its official depth chart already. There are major concerns along the offensive line as the team needs a new starting right tackle as Mike Johnson has been lost for the season. Backup quarterback Dominique Davis looked awful last week, completing only 8 of 19 passes for 78 yards and one interception.

Baltimore went to Tampa Bay last week and routed the Bucs 44-16. The defending Super Bowl champs looked very good in doing so. Backup QB Tyrod Taylor completed 13 of 23 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns, so give the Ravens the edge when the starting quarterbacks leave.

Carolina at Philadelphia (-3, 42)

This will be first year head coach Chip Kelly's last chance to win a home game before the regular season. The Eagles lost last week 31-22 to the Patriots. Obviously, the big story in Philly is the battle for the starting QB job between Mike Vick and Nick Foles. Both threw a touchdown pass last week. It is Foles turn to start this week. It appears as if Kelly will keep his "up-tempo" offense under wraps during the preseason.

Carolina won its preseason opener 24-17 at home over the Chicago Bears in spite of some sloppy play. Quarterback Cam Newton threw a terrible pick six. Rookie running back Kenjon Barner had a pair of fumbles.

San Diego at Chicago (-5, 38)

The San Diego Chargers have a lot of problems. They were beaten at home last week 31-10 by the Seattle Seahawks, which was first year head coach Mike McCoy's debut. There are major injury issues at the receiver position. Danario Alexander is gone for the season with an ACL and Malcom Floyd has a strained knee. I think its going to be a long season here. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst threw two picks and was sacked three times last week.

The Bears lost Marc Trestman's debut to Carolina last week despite forcing four turnovers. This will be Trestman's debut at Soldier Field. The first string offense ran the ball only once against nine pass plays in the opener. The offensive line allowed seven sacks.

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AFC South division preview: Texans a foregone conclusion?

The Houston Texans played like one of the best teams in the National Football League through the opening 12 games of the season. The club did, however, falter somewhat down the stretch and played some ugly football in the postseason.

Without much competition in a dismal AFC South, the Texans look good to win the division and odds are reflecting that.

Houston Texans (2012: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: -230
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the Texans: They looked like the best team in the NFL when they opened last season at 11-1 straight-up. The Texans are still the best team in their division by a wide margin, and unless they are besieged with significant injuries, they will return to the playoffs. This team is built to win right now and they could make noise if they get the right matchups in the post-season.

Why not to bet the Texans: The season-ending collapse (1-3 SU) was troublesome, and their two playoff games were ugly. If QB Matt Schaub plays like he did late last season, the Texans will be hindered by his mistakes once again. Houston is only dangerous if they have their running game going with Arian Foster. Against good run-stopping defenses, the Texans will struggle, especially when laying points.

Season win total pick: Under 10.5

Indianapolis Colts (2012: 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +260
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Colts: Indianapolis can build off their winning 2012 season because they have a solid NFL quarterback in Andrew Luck. He was ultra impressive as a rookie while throwing for 4,374 yards and 23 TD passes. The Colts also play a weak schedule this season with the majority of their tough games at home.

Why not to bet the Colts: Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians left for Arizona which may stall some of Luck’s progression this year. The Colts were a phony playoff team and their 11-5 regular season record was not indicative of their on-field play. Indianapolis was the only team to make the post-season with a negative point differential (-30). Nine of their eleven wins came by 7 points or less with six of those wins coming by 4 points or less. Indianapolis will be overvalued this season and we’ll look to play against the Colts quite often in 2013.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (2012: 2-14 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +3400
Season win total: 4.5

Why to bet the Jaguars: They went just 2-14 SU last season, so there’s nowhere to go but up. Jaguars’ owner Shahid Kahn axed his coaching staff and brought in new guys for the second year in a row. GM David Caldwell, head coach Gus Bradley, offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, and defensive coordinator Bob Babich are all new to the Jaguars. Maybe the new voices will have a big impact and get the Jaguars back to respectability.

Why not to bet the Jaguars: Jacksonville figures to be one of the worst teams in the NFL once again this season. While the new coaching staff is a positive, those guys have little to work with. They will need time to build from the ground up, especially since they can’t spend much money due to their salary cap issues.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5

Tennessee Titans (2012: 6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +960
Season win total: 6.5

Why to bet the Titans: The Titans’ offense rests heavily on QB Jake Locker, and he needs a consistent running game and limited turnovers to be effective. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if Tennessee finished with a winning record because they do have a proven running back in Chris Johnson.

Why not to bet the Titans: They went 6-10 for the second consecutive season and their losing record was in big part due to a horrendous defense. The Titans allowed 471 points last season while getting out-scored by a whopping 141 points on the year. Tennessee lost seven games by 14 points or more, including three losses by 28 points or more. Defense was a major issue heading into last season and it is once again a huge concern this year.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

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Thursday, August 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta +4.5 500 POD # 1
Baltimore - Over 41.5 500


Detroit - 7:30 PM ET Detroit +1.5 500 POD # 4
Cleveland - Under 42.5 500


Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Carolina +3 500 POD # 2
Philadelphia - Under 44 500


San Diego - 8:00 PM ET San Diego +5.5 500 POD # 3
Chicago - Under 37.5 500

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Friday Preseason Tips

August 16, 2013


Thursday's betting recap: All four home teams were victorious, but the Bears and Ravens were unable to cash as home favorites. The 'over' finished 2-2 last night, while the highest total (44) easily went 'under' in the Eagles/Panthers contest (14-9). Cleveland is the only team that has covered both of its preseason games with a 24-6 home triumph over Detroit as 1 ½-point favorites.

Vikings at Bills - 7:05 PM EST - Click here for winners

Week 1 Results:

Vikings lose to Texans, 27-13 as one-point home favorites
Bills beat Colts, 44-20 as 4 ½-point road underdogs

Expected Quarterback Rotations:

Minnesota: C. Ponder, M. Cassell, M. Bethel-Thompson
Buffalo: K. Kolb, E.J. Manuel, J. Tuel

Preseason Coaching Records:

Leslie Frazier (MIN): 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS
1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS on road

Doug Marrone (BUF): 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS
First home preseason game

Buccaneers at Patriots - 8:00 PM EST - Click here for winners

Week 1 Results:

Buccaneers lost to Ravens, 44-16 as three-point home favorites
Patriots beat Eagles, 31-22 as 3 ½-point road underdogs

Expected Quarterback Rotations:

Tampa Bay: J. Freeman, M. Glennon, A. Weber
New England: T. Brady, R. Mallett, T. Tebow

Preseason Coaching Records:

Greg Schiano (TB): 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS
1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS on road

Bill Belichick (NE): 9-8 SU, 7-9-1 ATS (Last 5 seasons)
4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS at home

Raiders at Saints - 8:00 PM EST - Click here for winners

Week 1 Results:

Raiders beat Cowboys, 19-17 as 1 ½-point home underdogs
Saints beat Chiefs, 17-13 as three-point home favorites

Expected Quarterback Rotations:

Oakland: M. Flynn, T. Pryor, T. Wilson, M.McGloin
New Orleans: D. Brees, L. McCown, R. Griffin

Preseason Coaching Records:

Dennis Allen (OAK): 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
0-2 SU, 1-1 on road

Sean Payton (NOR): 10-7 SU, 11-6 ATS (Last 5 seasons)
5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS at home

49ers at Chiefs - 8:00 PM EST - Click here for winners

Week 1 Results:

49ers lost to Broncos, 10-6 as three-point home favorites
Chiefs lost to Saints, 17-13 as three-point road underdogs

Expected Quarterback Rotations:

San Francisco: C. Kaepernick, C. McCoy, S. Tolzien
Kansas City: A. Smith, C. Daniel, R. Stanzi

Preseason Coaching Records:

Jim Harbaugh (SF): 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS
2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS on road

Andy Reid (KC): 10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS (Last 5 seasons)
Chiefs: 2-11 SU, 1-10-2 (Last 13 preseason games)

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AFC West preview: Are the Broncos worth the juice?

Denver Broncos (2012: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS)

Odds to win division: -340
Season win total: 11.5

Why to bet the Broncos: One could argue that Denver became the best team in the NFL last year as the season progressed. The Broncos were the favorites to reach the Super Bowl for the AFC, but they came up short in their thrilling overtime loss to the Ravens. This year, they play a ridiculously easy schedule, and in fact, it’s the easiest schedule in the NFL based on my projections. There’s no reason Denver can’t duplicate their 2012 results.

Why not to bet the Broncos: Denver won 13 games in 2012, but only two of those wins came against teams that made the playoffs. The Broncos went just 2-3 against teams that made the playoffs last season. QB Peyton Manning surprised many with how well he played after missing a full season because of neck surgery. It’s hard to imagine Manning repeating his 4,659 passing yards and his 37/11 TD/INT ratio. Denver may have a very good win/loss record, but they will certainly be overvalued in the pointspread and a team to play-against quite often in 2013.

Season win total pick: Over 11.5

Kansas City Chiefs (2012: 2-14 SU, 5-11 ATS)

Odds to win division: +580
Season win total: 7.0

Why to bet the Chiefs: Expectations are low after a 2-14 season, but there’s a lot of upside for Kansas City in 2013. The Chiefs are desperate for a winning team so they made a big splash by making Andy Reid their new head coach and trading for QB Alex Smith. Kansas City’s defense will be under new coordinator Bob Sutton and he’s switching to a 3-4 scheme which fits the Chiefs’ personnel well.

Why not to bet the Chiefs: We like the acquisition of QB Smith, but the Chiefs simply gave up way too much for him and the moves left their roster thin in key positions. HC Reid and new offensive coordinator Doug Pederson will run their West Coast scheme, but Reid has a tendency to forget about his running backs. Jamaal Charles is a solid runner, but he recently got hurt in camp, and if he’s not healthy, Smith and the Chiefs’ offense will struggle.

Season win total pick: Over 7.0

Oakland Raiders (2012: 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2200
Season win total: 5.5

Why to bet the Raiders: Oakland is another team in transition, but at least they may be headed in a better direction. The Raiders acquired QB Matt Flynn from Seattle, and they have a new offensive coordinator, Greg Olson. He will be installing his downhill power-running game scheme to fit Darren McFadden. That will take a lot of pressure off Flynn which will make the Raiders’ offense more balanced and less predictable.

Why not to bet the Raiders: Despite the changes, Oakland will give Jacksonville a run for their money to garner the title of the worst team in the NFL. Their roster is not of a high quality, and they will be starting guys who do not belong in the NFL. Oakland’s four wins last season came by a combined 31 points, while their twelve losses came by a combined 184 points. The Raiders have serious holes on both sides of the ball, and aside from the QB and coaching changes, there is little that is positive for Oakland heading into the 2013 season.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

San Diego Chargers (2012: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +700
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Chargers: There’s a new coaching staff for San Diego and we think that is a positive. Norv Turner was a terrible head coach in San Diego, and he’s now running the Cleveland offense. Mike McCoy is the new head coach and he tabbed Ken Whisenhunt as his offensive coordinator. With the new voices and new schemes, we can see the Chargers bouncing back with a productive season.

Why not to bet the Chargers: San Diego’s biggest issue is their offensive line which failed big time in their protection of QB Philip Rivers last season. The line needs significant improvement, but until we see it on the field, we cannot expect the Chargers to be any better this season.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

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NFL preseason primer: Friday game betting breakdown

Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5, 43)

Forced to throw rookie QB EJ Manuel to the wolves in their preseason opener, the Bills could not have asked for a better result last Sunday than what they got in a 44-20 road win over the Colts. Thanks to Kevin Kolb slipping on a mat (can't make it up!) and injuring himself, Manuel played the entire first half vs. Indianapolis & had a stellar debut, completing 16 of 21 passes for 107 yards and one touchdown. Kolb is slated to start Friday, the Bills announced Thursday. Behind Manuel, another rookie, Jeff Tuel also played well completing 19 of 23 passes for 200+ yards and two scores. It remains to be seen how Buffalo can adjust to the short week (Sunday to Friday), but this is 1st year head coach Doug Marrone's home debut.

Minnesota is a clear candidate to regress in 2013 from where I sit. We saw little of Christian Ponder in the team's 27-13 loss last week to Houston as he was in for all of one series and threw an INT. The Vikings are 7-3 SU all-time vs. the Bills in the preseason.

Tampa Bay at New England (-3, 40.5)

These two teams experienced very different results in their respective preseason openers. The Bucs got blown out at home by the Super Bowl Champion Ravens 44-16 while the Patriots went into Philadelphia and rolled the Eagles 31-22. Despite missing his six top pass catchers from a year ago, Tom Brady did not miss a beat as the Patriots QB completed seven of eight passes for 65 yards and a TD. On the team's first drive, Brady handed the ball off six straight times and the offense went 80 yards for a touchdown. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 101 yards (on only 11 carries!) in his Patriots debut. Backup quarterback Ryan Mallett got injured, leaving Tim Tebow to stink up the joint down the stretch.

In Tampa Bay, all eyes are still on QB Josh Freeman, who has been very inconsistent in his three seasons in the NFL. He was in for two possessions in the opener. Rookie Mike Glennon threw for 169 yards, but the bulk of that came on two completions.

Oakland at New Orleans (-6.5, 42)

The first thing that jumps out at me here is that this a pretty high line for a preseason game. But we all know how effective the Saints typically are at home. Last week, they beat another bad AFC West team, the Chiefs, 17-13. In head coach Sean Payton's return to the sidelines, the game plan was pretty vanilla on offense for New Orleans. On defense, things did not look good early for a unit that allowed an NFL record 7,042 yards last season. But against the Kansas City backups, they allowed just 135 total yards. Rob Ryan is the new defensive coordinator here.

Oakland also won its preseason opener, at home, in low-scoring fashion. They beat Dallas 19-17. Three projected starters along the defensive line sat out the game for the Raiders and they failed to put any kind of pressure on the Cowboys quarterbacks. On offense, free agent acquisition Matt Flynn didn't do much other than fumble. Terelle Pryor saw significant time and while he looked good at certain points, he also threw an interception in the end zone.

San Francisco at Kansas City (-1.5, 40)

Spirits should be high here as Alex Smith meets his former team. Neither team looked very good last week. San Francisco turned the ball over four times in its 10-6 loss to Denver last Thursday. QB Colin Kaepernick did complete all four of his passes and was in for only one drive, which resulted in a field goal. From there, the Niners did almost nothing. New kicker Phil Dawson was two of three on attempts. Reports are that last year's 1st round draft choice WR AJ Jenkins is treading on thin ice and may be in danger of not making the team.

Smith completed seven of eight pass attempts in leading the starters to a touchdown on the opening drive, but from there Kansas City did little, if anything. The special teams was promising with two big returns, one on a kickoff, the other on a punt. Starting running back Jamal Charles is out after straining his foot in practice. He is expected to be fine.

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Friday, August 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota +3.5 500 POD # 1
Buffalo - Under 43 500


Tampa Bay - 8:00 PM ET New England -3 500 POD # 4
New England - Over 40.5 500


San Francisco - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco +2.5 500 POD # 3
Kansas City - Under 40 500


Oakland - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans -6 500 POD # 2
New Orleans - Over 42 500

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AFC North Preview

August 16, 2013

The AFC North showcases two of the last three conference champions (Steelers 2010 and Ravens 2012). Baltimore had plenty of offseason departures to key positions, but the Ravens are seeking their sixth consecutive playoff appearance in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco regime. The second-longest postseason streak in the division surprisingly goes to the Bengals, who qualified for the playoffs each of the last two seasons.

In spite of winning the Super Bowl, Baltimore was barely an above-average ATS squad last season (10-9-1), which included four straight covers in the playoffs. The Ravens put together a 2-4 ATS mark as a home favorite in the regular season, but hit the 'over' in six of eight home contests. Baltimore battles three reigning division champs in the first six weeks (Denver, Houston, Green Bay) of this season, while the final three games of the campaign will be major tests at Detroit, hosting New England, and traveling to Cincinnati.

The Bengals overcame a 3-5 start to win seven of their final eight regular season games last season to finish 10-6. Cincinnati covered in nine of their 10 victories, with the lone non-cover coming as a 'push' against Cleveland in a seven-point win in Week 2. Marvin Lewis' club came through in the road underdog role four of six times, including outright victories at Washington, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh.

The Steelers struggled last season due to key injuries as the team failed to qualify for the playoffs for just the second time in the last six years. Pittsburgh faltered from an ATS standpoint (6-9-1), which included a dreadful 1-4 ATS record in the role of a road favorite. To make matters worse, the Steelers lost all four games straight-up, including defeats at Oakland, Cleveland, and Tennessee. Mike Tomlin's squad will be tested early with road trips to Cincinnati and Minnesota, while hosting Chicago in Week 3.

The Browns continue to sit at the bottom of the division, finishing in last place of the AFC North for five straight seasons. Cleveland was a coin-toss proposition in 2012 by posting a 7-7-2 ATS record, which included a strong 4-2 ATS mark in the role of a home underdog. Four of Cleveland's first six games are at home, as the Browns host three non-playoff teams in this span by taking on the Dolphins (Week 1), Bills (Week 5), Lions (Week 6).

September Games to Watch:

Baltimore at Denver - Week 1: The highly-anticipated rematch of last season's epic double-overtime victory by the Ravens in the AFC Divisional Playoffs kicks off the season. The Ravens have covered six of their last nine games as a road underdog since 2011, while Baltimore has won three of the past four meetings with Denver.

Cincinnati at Chicago - Week 1: The Bengals will be tested out of the gate with an interconference matchup at Soldier Field. Cincinnati is 5-1 the previous six games at NFC competition, including four straight victories. The last time these teams hooked up in Cincinnati in 2009, the Bengals blew out the Bears as short home favorites, 45-10.

Miami at Cleveland - Week 1: Following the early preseason success of the Browns, Rob Chudzinski's club is playing with confidence as the season opener looms ahead. The Browns are currently listed as a home underdog against the re-tooled Dolphins, as Cleveland is 4-0 the last four meetings with Miami since 2005.

Pittsburgh at Minnesota - Week 4: The Steelers head into the bye week following this contest, a stretch of four road contests in six weeks. Pittsburgh's road struggles were documented earlier, but the Steelers have won six of their last eight games overall against NFC foes.

2013 Win-Loss Projections
Team 2012 Record 2013 Win Total (LVH) Predicted Over/Under
Baltimore 10-6 8 ½ OVER
Cincinnati 10-6 8 ½ UNDER
Pittsburgh 8-8 9 UNDER
Cleveland 5-11 6 UNDER


Week 1 Best Bets (courtesy of LVH Hotel and Casino):

-- Bengals +3 ½ at Bears
-- Steelers -6 ½ vs. Titans
-- Dolphins -1 ½ at Browns
-- Ravens +8 ½ at Broncos (PASS)

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NFL preseason primer: Saturday game betting breakdown

Dallas at Arizona (-3, 41)

This will be the Cowboys' third game of the preseason. After pulling off an outright win in the Hall of Fame Game, they lost last week in Oakland, 19-17, on a short week. After sitting out the HOF Game, QB Tony Romo played two series against the Raiders, one of them resulting in a field goal. However that drive also started at the Oakland 16. Romo was actually better on the second drive, which resulted in a blocked field goal. Dallas' special teams were not good overall in the loss.

One of the big storylines in Cardinals camp right now is the play of rookie Tyrann Mathieu. The "Honey Badger" will get his 1st start Saturday afternoon after impressing teammates and coaches alike in practice. Arizona won its preseason opener, shutting out Green Bay 17-0. As you can probably guess, the defense was quite impressive as it forced a fumble, had one interception and three sacks. The kicking game was not good as the team was just 1-for-4 on field goal attempts.

Tennessee at Cincinnati (-2.5, 41)

The Titans lost last week at home to the Redskins, 22-21. That said, they did lead 14-7 at the end of the first quarter and rushed for 92 yards, 58 of them coming on a Chris Johnson touchdown. QB Jake Locker looked okay, completing 7 of 11 passes for 58 yards, but was sacked twice and the first team offense went three and out on the opening drive. He played most of the first half last week and should do so again here.

Locally, this game will be blacked out as it did not sell out. That's too bad because the Bengals look like they could be a very good team in 2013. They won the preseason opener 34-10 at Atlanta. I really like rookie running back Giovanni Bernard, who will split time with incumbent Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Josh Johnson and John Skelton gave the team strong QB play last week behind starter Andy Dalton.

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-2.5, 38.5)

The prognostications for both of these teams is rather bleak in 2013. The big story here is that for a second straight week, the Jets will go with Mark Sanchez as the starter after head coach Rex Ryan called Geno Smith's performance in 11 on 11 drills Wednesday "brutal". Sanchez was his usual self last week, throwing a pick-six and a touchdown pass. Smith went 6-of-7 for 47 yards, but did not lead any scoring drives in the team's 26-17 loss at Detroit.

Jacksonville was clobbered 27-3 last week at home by Miami in new head coach Gus Bradley's debut. Blaine Gabbert looked as awful as ever, completing only five passes for 19 yards, though his teammates offered little assistance, dropping two passes. Chad Henne completed 8 of 11 passes for 87 yards and looked better. Receiver Justin Blackmon was taken to the locker room following an on the field outburst.

Miami at Houston (-3, 41)

This will be the third preseason game for the Dolphins, who lost the Hall of Fame Game, but came back and clobbered the Jaguars last week. After taking just 10 snaps in the opener, QB Ryan Tannehill was more effective against Jacksonville, completing five of nine passes and one touchdown. Last week was Miami's first ever preseason win in six tries under head coach Joe Philbin. The depth chart is expected to be the exact same as last week.

Houston won its preseason opener last week on the road, beating Minnesota 27-13. Rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins made an exciting touchdown grab and has the coaching staff excited that they finally may have found the compliment to Andre Johnson. A number of Texans starters did not play last week, including RB Arian Foster, DE JJ Watt, LB Brian Cushing, S Ed Reed and Johnson. Cushing will play here for sure. There is a battle for the backup QB job between TJ Yates and Case Keenum. Keenum will play second string Saturday.

Green Bay at St. Louis (-4.5, 40)

After being shutout at home in their opener, 17-0 by the Cardinals, the Packers will be looking to bounce back this week. A number of players (17 in all!) did not dress last week due to injury. QB Aaron Rodgers played one series and led his team down to the goal line where they could not punch it in. Backup Graham Harrell saw most of the work last week.

St. Louis was openly mocked by Browns color commentator Bernie Kosar last week, but actually had a chance to tie the game late. Still though, their starters were outscored 17-0. A couple key coaching trends here as Packers coach Mike McCarthy is 20-9 Over in all preseason games while Rams coach Jeff Fisher is 3-0 ATS all-time in the preseason with at least eight days rest.

Denver at Seattle (-4.5, 41)

I'm tempted to call this a "Super Bowl Preview" as right now if you made me pick, these would be my predicted AFC and NFC Champs. Both teams won last week on the road against a division foe of the other. Seattle pulled away from San Diego late, winning 31-10, while Denver won an ugly 10-6 game at San Francisco.

I would not expect Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson to play much here. Manning played just one series last week. The Broncos were fortunate to win the game as they finished with a +4 edge in turnovers.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/16/13 7-*1-*0 87.50% +*2950 Detail
08/15/13 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
08/11/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/10/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/09/13 7-*9-*0 43.75% -*1450 Detail
08/08/13 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*300 Detail
08/04/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 29-*21-*0 58.00% +2950

Saturday, August 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Dallas - 4:30 PM ET Dallas +3 500 POD # 1
Arizona - Under 41 500


Tennessee - 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati -2.5 500 POD # 4
Cincinnati - Over 41 500


Jacksonville - 7:30 PM ET Jacksonville +2.5 500 POD # 2
N.Y. Jets - Over 38.5 500


Green Bay - 8:00 PM ET Green Bay +4.5 500 POD # 3
St. Louis - Over 40.5 500


Miami - 8:00 PM ET Houston -3 500 POD # 6
Houston - Under 41 500


Denver - 10:00 PM ET Seattle -5 500 POD # 5
Seattle - Under 41 500

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Betting Notebook - Colts at Giants
August 18, 2013



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Preseason Trends

-- The ‘over’ went 12-5 in the first two weeks of the preseason but the trend has tempered a little bit this weekend with the ‘over’ going 7-6-1 in the first 14 games.

-- The theme in Week 2 has been about the home team, who have produced a 12-2 straight up record. and 10-4 against the spread mark. The 49ers’ 15-13 victory over the Chiefs on Friday and the Packers’ 19-7 win at St. Louis on Saturday were the two wins from road teams.

-- Seven of the 14 games played this week have been decided by five points or less.

Indianapolis at New York Giants (FOX, 7:00 p.m.) – Click here for Winners

Week 1 Notes

Indianapolis (0-1) - The Colts lost to the Bills 44-20 as 4 ½-point home favorites
New York (1-0) – The Giants beat the Steelers 18-13 as 2 ½-point road underdogs

Expected QB Rotation

Indianapolis – Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish
New York – Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (Rookie-Syracuse)

Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)

Indianapolis (0-3)
New York (2-1)

Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)

Chuck Pagano (2-3)
Pagano is 0-2 in his first two road games in the preseason

Tom Coughlin (19-18 with Giants)
Coughlin has never produced a preseason record better than 2-2 since 2006.

Off the Wire

Indianapolis

-- After last week’s 24-point loss at home to the Bills, owner Jim Irsay tweeted his feelings on Twitter. He wrote, “Many starters played briefly or were nursing little injuries,but it was a crap performance,my apologies/My commanders got n earful from me!”

-- QB Andrew Luck only played two series (10 plays) last week and is expected to see 25-30 snaps on Sunday. Veteran Matt Hasselbeck will follow while Northern Illinois product Chandler Harnish will finish off the game.

-- Former New York Giants running back, Ahmad Bradshaw (foot), will not be in the lineup for Indianapolis on Sunday. Backups Vick Ballard, Donald Brown and Delone Carter are expected to carry the ground game.

TE Coby Fleener (doubtful) is also expected to miss action for the Colts.

The Colts went 2-2 in preseason action last year but where just 5-25 from 2005 to 2011.

New York

Head coach Tom Coughlin plans to give quarterback Eli Manning about 20 plays and follow with backup David Carr and rookie Ryan Nassib. Veteran Curtis Painter, a former Colt, will not play until next week when Carr sits.

Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who missed the preseason opener, is expected back on the field and first-round draft pick and tackle Justin Pugh will play after missing the preseason opener with a concussion.

Defensive end Justin Tuck, who missed the Steelers game with a tight back, is expected to play. Safety Antrel Rolle sprained his right ankle in practice and will be replaced by Ryan Mundy.

Handicapping Notes

-- New York hasn’t won back-to-back preseason games in the last three years
-- The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine preseason games
-- The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 under Pagano

Line Analysis

-- The Giants opened as 2 ½-point favorites at most Las Vegas betting shops but that number has dropped to 1 ½ or 1 as of Sunday morning.
-- The total is hovering between 40 and 41 in Las Vegas and the offshore outfits.

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Sunday, August 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 7:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -1.5 500 POD # 1


N.Y. Giants - Over 40.5 500 POD # 2


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/17/13 7-*4-*1 63.64% +*1300 Detail
08/16/13 7-*1-*0 87.50% +*2950 Detail
08/15/13 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
08/11/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/10/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/09/13 7-*9-*0 43.75% -*1450 Detail
08/08/13 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*300 Detail
08/04/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 36-*25-*1 59.02% +4250

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NFL preseason primer: Sunday game betting breakdown


A look from the bettor's perspective of Sunday's NFL preseason game.

Indianapolis at NY Giants (-1.5, 40.5)

The Colts are a team a lot of people are calling for to "regress" this season and they definitely got off to an auspicious start to the preseason, losing last week at home to Buffalo 44-20. The poor performance caused owner Jim Irsay to take to Twitter to "rip" the team. Their starters didn't play much, with QB Andrew Luck in for only two series. Reportedly, the first team offense will be in for a significantly longer amount of time here. Special teams coverage was a major issue last week, most notably allowing a 107-yd kick return for a TD.

The Giants won a pretty ugly game last week, 18-13 in Pittsburgh. The highlight was a 57-yard TD pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz. Head coach Tom Coughlin is 7-3 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Giants in the preseason.

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Top 5 NFL Trends


IND
NYG Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.


IND
NYG Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.


IND
NYG Under is 6-2 in Giants last 8 games overall.


IND
NYG Under is 19-7 in Colts last 26 games overall.


IND
NYG Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 road games.