The Bum's Preseason Best Bets & Pod's ! + QB Rotations

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Thursday, August 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay -3 500 POD # 3
Tampa Bay - Under 35.5 500 POD # 5

Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta -2.5 500 POD # 4
Atlanta - Over 36.5 500

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis +3.5 500 POD # 6
Cleveland - Under 35.5 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +3 500
Tennessee - Over 35.5 500

Denver - 9:00 PM ET San Francisco -3 500 POD # 1
San Francisco - Under 35 500

Seattle - 10:00 PM ET Seattle -2.5 500 POD # 2
San Diego - Over 35.5 500

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Friday Preseason Tips

August 9, 2013


Thursday recap:

The underdogs took home the money in four of six preseason games last night, improving to 5-2 ATS since Sunday's Hall of Fame game. The Ravens, Redskins, and Bengals all won outright in the road 'dog role, while the 'over' hit in five of the six games on Thursday.

Tonight's action:

Dolphins (-1 ½, 35 ½) at Jaguars - 7:30 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: MIA (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), JAX (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Dolphins beat Jaguars, 27-26 in 2010

QB Rotations: MIA - Tannehill, Moore, Devlin
JAX - Gabbert, Henne, Kafka

Handicapper Analysis: ASA - Miami already has a game under their belt which should be an advantage here. The Fins lost in the Hall of Fame game last Sunday to Dallas, 24-20. However, Miami dominated the stats with seven more first downs and 421 total yards to just 266 for the Cowboys. The Fish averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding Dallas to only 4.6 yards per play. The score was obviously deceiving as the Cowboys first two TD’s came on a 9-yard drive after a Ryan Tannehill fumble and on a 75-yard interception return.

Jets at Lions (-3 ½, 36 ½) - 7:30 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: NYJ (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), DET (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Jets beat Lions, 10-3 in 2005

QB Rotations: NYJ - Sanchez, G. Smith, Simms, McElroy
DET - Stafford, Hill, Moore, Lewis

Handicapper Analysis: The Gold Sheet - Detroit's Jim Schwartz has become one of the more predictable forces in preseason since taking over the Lions, going 12-4 straight up and 11-4 vs. the spread. New York has usually been a slow starter under Rex Ryan, going 0-4 in Week One of exhibition play, and this year's team has its third offensive coordinator in three years.

Patriots at Eagles (-4 ½, 41) - 7:30 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: NE (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS), PHI (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Eagles beat Patriots, 27-17 in 2012

QB Rotations: NE: Brady, Mallett, Tebow
PHI - Vick, Foles, Barkley, Dixon

Handicapper Analysis: Antony Dinero - Talk of Tom Brady destroying the Eagles secondary has come out of Philly, where the Patriots have served as scrimmage partner since Tuesday. Considering both Michael Vick and Nick Foles are out to impress, not to mention the pace Chip Kelly and Bill Belichick are trying to instill, this game should be high-scoring.

Cardinals at Packers (-3, 34 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

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2012 Preseason Records: ARZ (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS), GB (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Packers beat Cardinals, 28-20 in 2011

QB Rotations: ARZ - Palmer, Stanton, Lindley
GB: Rodgers, Harrell, Coleman

Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - Yes, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, but I do not expect to see much of him in this game, especially since their left tackle went down last Saturday and Green Bay just cannot afford any more injuries. The Packers have terrible back-ups that do not fit Mike McCarthy’s style of throwing the ball down the field. This team is so desperate for a quality back-up that they just signed Vince Young, a player that has not seen action since 2011.

Bears at Panthers (-2 ½, 34) - 8:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: CHI (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), CAR (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Panthers beat Bears, 30-12 in 1996

QB Rotations: CHI - Cutler, J. McCown, Blanchard
CAR - Newton, Anderson, Clausen, Cameron

Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - New coaches in their first NFL preseason game are 5-14 SU and 2-17 ATS since 2000 if their team won three or more preseason games last year, including 0-8 SUATS if they open the preseason on the road. That's the case for new Bears head coach Marc Trestman and the Bears tonight.

Chiefs at Saints (-3, 36 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: KC (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), NOR (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Saints beat Chiefs, 30-7 in 2007

QB Rotations: KC: A. Smith, Daniel, Bray, Stanzi
NOR: Brees, Wallace, L. McCown, Griffin

Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - The Chiefs have been the worst preforming team in the preseason year after year - in the past 6 preseasons the Chiefs are an amazing 4-21 against the spread. However, let's not forget that when Andy Reid was with the Eagles, he hated this opening preseason game and put no effort into winning this game - the records don't lie as Reid in his last 8 preseason openers went a money making 1-7 if you faded the Eagles.

Texans at Vikings (PK, 35) - 8:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: HOU (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), MIN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Texans beat Vikings, 28-24 in 2012

QB Rotations: HOU: Schaub, Yates, Keenum, McGee
MIN: Ponder, Cassell, Bethel-Thompson

Handicapper Analysis: Pat Hawkins - The Texans have come out firing in the past two season when playing early preseason games as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their two open games in the last two preseasons. On the other hand, the Vikings have not out too much stock in the practice games under Leslie Frazier as he has gone 0-2 in opening practice games.

Cowboys (-1 ½, 35) at Raiders - 10:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: DAL (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), OAK (1-3, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason Meeting: Cowboys beat Raiders, 3-0 in 2012

QB Rotations: DAL: Romo, Orton, Stephens
OAK: Flynn, Pryor, T. Wilson, McGloin

Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - Historically, favorites that won the Hall of Fame game are usually a good fade the next week, as the Cowboys are in that position tonight, especially as road 'chalk.' Dallas cashed as short away 'dogs last season at Oakland, 3-0, but with the roles reserved, the Raiders look to be the play.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Games of the Year: Bucs could be FG faves vs. Fins

NFL Week 10 (Monday Night): Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Past History: Tampa Bay is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U since 2000.

Early look at the Dolphins: Miami has a win total of eight this season. It was 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road last year. The Fish come into this contest with a full 10 days off between games, playing a Thursday night contest vs. the Bengals the week before.

Early look at the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has a win total of 7.5 this season and was 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS at home last year. The Bucs will have had eight days off between games after playing at Seattle the week before.

Where this line will move: The oddsmakers have not given either team much of a shot at making the playoffs. Depending on injuries and what each team's record is coming into this contest, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line climb as high as -3 as the public naturally backs the home side between these middle-of-the-road clubs.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, August 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -3.5 500 POD # 1
Detroit - Over 36 500

New England - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia -3.5 500 POD # 3
Philadelphia - Over 40.5 500

Miami - 7:30 PM ET Jacksonville +1.5 500
Jacksonville - Over 35.5 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston +1 500
Minnesota - Under 35.5 500

Arizona - 8:00 PM ET Green Bay -2 500
Green Bay - Under 35 500

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Chicago +2.5 500 POD # 5
Carolina - Under 34 500

Kansas City - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans -3 500 POD # 2
New Orleans - Over 37 500

Dallas - 10:00 PM ET Oakland +1.5 500 POD # 4
Oakland - Under 35.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Notebook - Steelers vs. Giants

August 10, 2013


Sunday’s Preseason Betting Recap

-- Dallas beat Miami 24-20 in the Hall of Fame Game, cashing tickets as a three-point underdog. The combined 44 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 33.

Thursday’s Preseason Betting Recap

-- Underdogs went 4-2 both straight up and against the spread
-- Road teams went 5-1
-- The ‘over’ went 5-1
-- The biggest public bets at Sportsbook.ag went 2-0 (Seattle, Cincinnati)

Friday’s Preseason Betting Recap

-- Favorites and Underdogs produced a stalemate (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)
-- Home and Away teams also went 4-4
-- The ‘over’ went 5-3
-- The biggest public bets at Sportsbook.ag went 2-1 (Miami, Dallas, Houston)

Giants at Steelers (7:30 p.m. ET)

2012 Preseason Records

Pittsburgh (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS)
New York (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)

2012 Preseason Totals

Pittsburgh (Over 3-1)
New York (Under 3-1)

Last Meeting
The Steelers beat the Giants 24-20 on Nov. 4 as 3 ½-point road underdogs in the regular season last year.

Expected QB Rotations

Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (Rookie - Oklahoma)

New York
Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (Rookie - Syracuse), Curtis Painter

Handicapping Notes

Pittsburgh

VegasInsider.com expert Tony Stoffo believes the Steelers could be an ‘over’ look this August. He explained, “In Part I of my Preseason Report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the over go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.”

New York

Handicapping analysts at ASA don’t expect much “pop” from the Giants’ offense in August based on recent trends. They said, “The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 preseason games. The Giants have never been big on showing a lot of their starting offense in the preseason. QB Eli Manning won't see a ton of action and coaches will want to keep their wide receivers healthy. Expect more low-scoring games as they try to get their swagger back on defense as well.”

Coaching Angles

Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin has gone 11-1 SU at home in 12 preseason games with the Steelers

Betcha Didn’t Know

VI handicapper Marc Lawrence stated, “The Giants 12-6 against the spread the last 18 games as a preseason underdog against the AFC, including 4-0 the last four matchups”

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Giants at Steelers: What bettors need to know

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 35.5)

Giants head coach Tom Coughlin said earlier in the week that the starters will "probably play about a quarter", though a few starters will miss out in the preseason opener. Namely, O-linemen James Brewer (concussion) and Chris Snee (undisclosed), as well as FB Henry Hynoski. WR Hakeem Nicks is suffering from a groin strain and is uncertain whether or not he will see the field, though the wideout says he is 100 percent. On the other side of the ball, Justin Tuck claims that the competition at the DE position is "heating up" and competition will be fierce with guys fighting for a limited number of jobs. The Giants finished the 2012 preseason 3-1 ATS, 2-2 SU and 1-3 O/U.

The starting unit for the Pittsburgh Steelers will get 10 to 12 snaps of action in the opener and rookie running back Le'Veon Bell will get a chance to show his stuff with the starters. Bell will play with the second unit as well, however, so that head coach Mike Tomlin can see where the rookie stands. Fellow RB's Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will also get plenty of opportunity to show their stuff as the trio jockey for position in a heated RB battle. Pittsburgh finished the 2012 preseason with a record of 3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U.

The two franchises met in Week 9 last season. The Giants prevailed at home by a score of 24-20 and covered as 3.5-point home dogs.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, August 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Giants - 7:30 PM ET N.Y. Giants +2.5 500 POD # 1


Pittsburgh - Under 35.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Shortest overtime games in NFL history........

0:11-- Denver 29, Pittsburgh 23, 1/8/12 (playoff game)

0:14-- NJ Jets 37, at Buffalo 31, 9/8/02

0:16-- Chicago 37, San Francisco 31, 10/20/01

0:16-- Green Bay 19, at Denver 13, 10/29/07

0:17-- New Orleans 20, Seattle 17, 11/16/97

0:21-- Chicago 23, at Detroit 17, 11/27/80


*****

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday........

13) We hear so much negative stuff about athletes, its nice to hear some good stuff: wrestler/actor Dwayne Johnson recently donated so much money to the Miami Hurricanes' athletic department, they named the football team's new locker room after him.

Johnson was a backup defensive lineman for Miami at the same time Warren Sapp played there. He's become a very popular action movie star.

12) There have been 499 regular season OT games in NFL history; out of those 499, only nine teams won the OT coin toss and kicked off.

11) Denver Broncos' 25-15-2 record in regular season OT games is the NFL's best record; Denver also won the shortest OT tilt in playoff history (0:11) beating the Steelers two years ago.

10) Tampa Bay Rays pulled off the hidden ball trick on Jose Uribe during the Dodgers' 5-0 win Saturday afternoon. LA is insanely hot right now, winning 36 of their last 44 games, first NL team to do that since 1953, and they've had more than their share of injuries.

9) If you'd like to win a bar bet, the 1983 Packers hold the NFL record by playing five OT games in one year.

8) Chocolate covered bacon actually exists; no thank you, ma'am.

7) Eagles have four NFL-level QB's; Vick-Foles, plus Matt Barkley and Dennis Dixon, who played for Chip Kelly at Oregon. All four will play in the NFL this year, but one of them won't be doing it in Philly.

6) Cal-Riverside has a BA program in bagpipes, so if you know any really tall, athletic kids who like to play bagpipes and basketball, let the coaches there know. Riverside needs better basketball players.

5) I'm not fond of the Auto Correct on my IPhone; it creates more bad typing than it corrects. Other than that, IPhones are great.

4) Cleveland Browns signed their long-snapper to a 5-year contract; thats the easiest way to get to the NFL, become a great long snapper, but there are only 32 of those jobs in the world.

3) Pro golfers are allowed to carry 14 clubs in their bag; on the third tee Friday, Woody Austin discovered he was carrying 15 clubs, so he was nailed for a 4-shot penalty (two strokes for each hole).

2) Saint Hoods is a controversial new reality show about three rival gangs in Boston; it is on Discovery Channel, and it deals with sports gambling, so I'll take a look and tell you what I think. Lot has been written about it so far, people in Boston aren't enthused. This from the Boston Globe:

"The Discovery Channel’s new series “Saint Hoods” must be somebody’s idea of entertainment, but not anyone’s in Boston. After a summer dominated by the James “Whitey” Bulger trial and its testimony about reprehensible violence and criminal activity, the reality television show’s glorification of the supposedly seamy underworld of South Boston, Roslindale, and Dorchester and the gangs that operate there is, at best, tasteless."

1) Pirates are 49-2 this season when they lead after the 6th inning; I'm still baffled why Colorado let Clint Hurdle go two years after he got them to the World Series- to me, he's a very good manager.

[StarDust Bum]

Bills at Colts: What bettors need to know

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 36.5)

Bills head coach Doug Marrone announced that rookie quarterback EJ Manuel will indeed get the start in Sunday's preseaon opener. Jeff Tuel will also see a good chunk of action. Due to a death in the family and left knee injury, Kolb will be sidelined versus the Colts as he practiced once in the previous week. Manuel, the Bills first round pick in the 2013 draft (16th overall), threw for 3,392 yards, 23 TDs and 10 interceptions in his senior season at Florida State. Buffalo WR Stevie Johnson will not play Sunday due to a strained hamstring which means T.J. Graham and rookies Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin will get plenty of opportunities with the first team offense. Buffalo finished the 2012 preseason 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS and 3-1 O/U.

It is expected that Colts starters will be limited to one series, possibly two, on Sunday. The focus for Indy, however, will be an overhauled defense. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky will be watching closely as he looks to fill the void left by six defensive starters from 2012 that have moved to new teams. There is also a nice battle at running back going on in Colts camp. The No. 1 job belongs to Vick Ballard, but he's being pushed by Donald Brown and rookie Kerwynn Williams who has put in some time with the first team at camp. Ahmad Bradshaw is on the Colts' PUP list and will miss Sunday's game. Indy went 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U in the 2012 preseason.

The two teams played in Week 12 last season. The Colts prevailed 20-13 at home and covered as 2-point favorites.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, August 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Buffalo - 1:30 PM ET Buffalo +4 500 POD # 2


Indianapolis - Over 36.5 500 POD # 1

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting: Over cashes in at more than 70 percent through Week 1

Following the Buffalo Bills big 44-20 victory against the Indianapolis Colts, Week 1 of the NFL preseason is completed.

The 'over' has come through for bettors after the first 17 games of the preseason schedule going 12-5 O/U (over/under), good enough for 70.6 percent.

As we look ahead to the second week of games in the preseason schedule, here is a brief recap of the number from Week 1 which will include the inaugural Hall of Fame Game:

Favorites went 6-11 ATS (against the spread)

Favorites went 6-11 SU (straight up)

Over/Under results were 12-5 O/U

The home team went 6-11 ATS and 6-11 SU

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Best over/under bets of NFL preseason Week 2

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 2 of the exhibition schedule.

Records since 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 2 over bets

Green Bay Packers (12-5 SU, 13-4 O/U in Week 2)

The Pack finished just 1-3 O/U in the 2012 preseason, but their lone 'over' result was Week 2. Green Bay was shutout 17-0 by the Arizona Cardinals in their disappointing preseason opener a week ago. Needless to say, the Pack had issues offensively, especially running the ball. QB Aaron Rodgers was effective in his one series, an 11-play, 86 yard drive. But it ended in futility after failing to punch the ball in the end zone on fourth-and-goal. The Packers have played over the total in seven-straight Week 2 preseason games. They will travel to St. Louis to face the Rams Saturday. The total is currently 40.5.

Oakland Raiders (5-11 SU, 11-5 O/U in Week 2)

The Raiders are already 1-0 O/U after a 19-17 victory (total of 35.5) over the Dallas Cowboys in their preseason opener. Matt Flynn is on track to be the starting QB to begin the season, but Terrelle Pryor looked good against the Cowboys and gives the offense some different options when he is under center. The Raiders are in New Orleans to battle the Saints Friday. The total is currently 40. 5.

*The Raiders did not have a game in Week 2 in the 1999 preseason.


Best NFL preseason Week 2 under bets

Miami Dolphins (10-7 SU, 6-11 O/U in Week 2)

After a 24-20 loss in the Hall of Fame Game, a result that went 'over' the total, the Dolphins kept the scoreline under the total with a 27-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. QB Ryan Tannehill looked good (5-for-9, 75 yards, one TD) but there is some concern as to why he didn't throw to new WR Mike Wallace - something they may look to remedy. Miami will face the Houston Texans in a Week 2 matchup Saturday. The total is 40.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-12 SU, 7-10 O/U in Week 2)

The Chiefs and New Orleans Saints played 'under' the 36.5-point total in Week 1 in a 17-13 Saints victory. The Chiefs offense looked promising going 80 yards on 14 plays in the opening drive. Alex Smith looked great completing 7-for-8 passes for 68 yards in his lone drive. The Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers Friday. The total is currently listed at 40.

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SOS Analysis

August 13, 2013


Turnover Analysis

Below I have broken down my 2013 Strength of Schedule (SOS) using the following three metrics:

2013 Initial Power Ratings
2012 Final Power Rankings
2012 Final Performance Rankings

Here are my main SOS figures which breaks it down using the initial 2013 team by team power ratings:

2013 Strength of Schedule Ratings & Rankings

Team Road SOS Rank Home SOS Rank Total SOS Rank

NEW YORK GIANTS 190.5 1 184.0 3 374.5 1

MINNESOTA 180.5 3 175.0 7 355.5 2

BALTIMORE 175.5 8 179.0 4 354.5 3

TAMPA BAY 178.0 6 170.5 14 348.5 4

ATLANTA 173.0 14 175.0 7 348.0 5

WASHINGTON 178.5 5 169.0 16 347.5 6

CHICAGO 172.0 15 175.0 7 347.0 7

ARIZONA 160.0 25 186.0 1 346.0 8

ST. LOUIS 184.5 2 161.5 25 346.0 8

DALLAS 166.5 20 178.5 5 345.0 10

GREEN BAY 175.0 9 169.5 15 344.5 11

DETROIT 172.0 15 172.0 12 344.0 12

NEW ORLEANS 175.0 9 167.5 18 342.5 13

PHILADELPHIA 177.0 7 165.0 22 342.0 14

CAROLINA 167.5 19 173.5 10 341.0 15

SAN FRANCISCO 156.0 27 184.5 2 340.5 16

NEW ENGLAND 169.0 18 171.0 13 340.0 17

JACKSONVILLE 174.0 12 163.0 24 337.0 18

OAKLAND 175.0 9 159.5 26 334.5 19

SEATTLE 179.0 4 154.5 31 333.5 20

TENNESSEE 173.5 13 158.0 27 331.5 21

CINCINNATI 160.5 23 169.0 16 329.5 22

CLEVELAND 172.0 15 156.0 30 328.0 23

SAN DIEGO 152.5 29 175.5 6 328.0 23

MIAMI 160.5 23 166.5 19 327.0 25

INDIANAPOLIS 158.5 26 166.5 19 325.0 26

KANSAS CITY 152.5 29 172.5 11 325.0 26

PITTSBURGH 165.0 21 156.5 29 321.5 28

BUFFALO 153.0 28 166.5 19 319.5 29

HOUSTON 148.5 31 164.0 23 312.5 30

DENVER 165.0 21 140.5 32 305.5 31

NEW YORK JETS 140.0 32 158.0 27 298.0 32


The above data is stacked in order of strength with the #1 team New York Giants estimated to face the toughest 2013 schedule based on my initial Power Ratings, while their neighbor New York Jets are estimated to face the easiest.

In addition to overall SOS (the last column), I have also included SOS broken out by home and road games. That breakout is absolutely critical because in a perfect world teams prefer to face a bulk of their tougher opponents at home, and the easier opponents on the road. While total SOS is a great gauge when looking at your favorite team’s chances at a solid double-digit win season, using the home versus road comparison can add even more value.

Let’s discuss a few teams that stand out for having a tough schedule, easy schedule, and favorable or unfavorable breakdowns using the home versus road comparison:

New York Giants: This season the Giants are estimated to face the toughest schedule in the NFL, and it’s by a wide margin of 19.0 SOS points. What is an SOS point? The easiest way to explain this is a team that is projected to be middle of the pack, 8-8 type team, is given a power rating of 21. If you multiple 21 times the 16 games a team will play that equals 336.0 – the Giants right now total a 374.5, which is an average opponent power rating of 23.4 – that rating is typically equal to a borderline double-digit win team. It all means on average the Giants are facing 9 to 10 double-digit win teams this upcoming season – extremely tough. Their opponents that really boost their rating is facing Denver, Carolina, Seattle and the four teams in the NFC North. By facing the toughest schedule in the NFL, combined with obviously then facing the toughest schedule of all teams in the ultra-competitive NFC East, this could be the difference between earning a playoff berth versus just missing out.

St. Louis: The Rams check in with a Top 10 SOS, and a significant split between their home (#25) and road (#2) strength, which will negatively impact their chances at making a run at a Wild Card berth in a deep NFC. St. Louis will play five road games against teams that made the playoffs last season.

Dallas: The Cowboys have the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFC East, the 10th toughest schedule overall, however, will enjoy a favorable split getting many of their tougher games at home (5th toughest home slate).

San Francisco/Seattle: The two teams that figure to battle for the NFC West title have interesting splits, which will likely favor San Francisco in their hopes of winning back to back NFC West titles. Seattle will face the 27th toughest road schedule (SEA is #4), while the 49ers face the 2nd toughest home schedule (SEA is #31).

Denver/Houston/Pittsburgh: These three teams all have one of the five easiest schedules this season, and I project all three to win their respective divisions. With the Broncos on paper having the best team in the NFL it’s highly likely they at least secure a first round bye in the AFC playoffs, and very possible they secure the #1 overall seed; in a still weak AFC South I look for Houston to secure the #2 seed; Pittsburgh will bounce back in a big way this season and get back to the playoffs.

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NFL Week 2 preseason primer: Thursday betting preview

A look at the essentials for bettors heading into Thursday's action in the NFL, including how long starters are expected to play for each team.

Detroit at Cleveland (Pick, 41)

The Cleveland Browns won their preseason opener, 27-19 at home against the St. Louis Rams. This will be the final preseason home game for first year head coach Rob Chudzinski. Quarterback Brandon Weeden looked good last week, completing 10 of 13 passes for 112 yards and led a pair of scoring drives. Cleveland's starters outscored their St. Louis' counterparts 17-0. A decision on whether or not RB Trent Richardson will play this week will not be made until sometime Wednesday.

Like Cleveland, Detroit won its preseason opener, beating the Jets 26-17. Expect starters for both teams to play about the same amount of time as last week, if not a bit more. This is an annual preseason clash for the "Great Lakes Cup." The road team has won the last two years and Detroit holds a slight 6-5 ATS edge since '02.

Atlanta at Baltimore (-3.5, 41)

Very different results for these teams last week. The Falcons continued their preseason woes with a 34-10 home loss to Cincinnati. They are just 7-14 SU (straight up) in the preseason under Mike Smith. Atlanta has released its official depth chart already. There are major concerns along the offensive line as the team needs a new starting right tackle as Mike Johnson has been lost for the season. Backup quarterback Dominique Davis looked awful last week, completing only 8 of 19 passes for 78 yards and one interception.

Baltimore went to Tampa Bay last week and routed the Bucs 44-16. The defending Super Bowl champs looked very good in doing so. Backup QB Tyrod Taylor completed 13 of 23 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns, so give the Ravens the edge when the starting quarterbacks leave.

Carolina at Philadelphia (-3, 42)

This will be first year head coach Chip Kelly's last chance to win a home game before the regular season. The Eagles lost last week 31-22 to the Patriots. Obviously, the big story in Philly is the battle for the starting QB job between Mike Vick and Nick Foles. Both threw a touchdown pass last week. It is Foles turn to start this week. It appears as if Kelly will keep his "up-tempo" offense under wraps during the preseason.

Carolina won its preseason opener 24-17 at home over the Chicago Bears in spite of some sloppy play. Quarterback Cam Newton threw a terrible pick six. Rookie running back Kenjon Barner had a pair of fumbles.

San Diego at Chicago (-5, 38)

The San Diego Chargers have a lot of problems. They were beaten at home last week 31-10 by the Seattle Seahawks, which was first year head coach Mike McCoy's debut. There are major injury issues at the receiver position. Danario Alexander is gone for the season with an ACL and Malcom Floyd has a strained knee. I think its going to be a long season here. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst threw two picks and was sacked three times last week.

The Bears lost Marc Trestman's debut to Carolina last week despite forcing four turnovers. This will be Trestman's debut at Soldier Field. The first string offense ran the ball only once against nine pass plays in the opener. The offensive line allowed seven sacks.

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Wiseguy Report: The Opening Line and what it means

In the modern era of sports betting, what is exactly is “The Opening Line’? It’s most assuredly not a meaningless question. There are many bettors who consider the opening number as an important part of their handicap.

Long term winning bettors don’t bet ‘bad’ numbers – if they miss their targeted ‘strike price’, they’ll leave the game alone. So the opening number – or what they consider to be the opening number – holds significant weight in future wagering decisions.

When I first moved to Vegas in the late 90’s, there was no debate. Joe Lupo, Bob Scucci, Doug Castanada and the rest of the bookmakers at the Stardust hung the very first numbers, worldwide. When those opening numbers were first posted, the ‘Dust held a ‘lottery’ to determine the order of who could bet first, second, third and on down the line. Bettors coveted a place at or near the front of that line – it legitimately made a difference.

The Sunday Night lottery at the Stardust during football season was a spectacle to behold. The book was packed; the energy electric in anticipation of those ‘virgin’ numbers hitting the betting board. Even during basketball and baseball season, when numbers were posted first thing in the morning, it wasn’t unusual to see dozens of high limit bettors waiting for their crack at the opening numbers.

But the ‘Dust didn’t hold their ‘monopoly’ on the opening line for long. Other books in town wanted to (or were under pressure to) create additional handle. Particularly during football season, they posted earlier than the Dust. At varying points Bally’s, the Imperial Palace, the Wynn and the MGM Grand Sportsbooks posted the very first football pointspreads for the following week.

I can still vividly remember Jay Kornegay’s (the LVH Superbook Director for the last decade or so) book at the IP packed with limit bettors at halftime of the afternoon games on an NFL Sunday, when he posted his first lines for the following week. It was like the ‘Dust all over again!

At the same time, the offshore betting world was increasing in size and influence on what seemed like a weekly basis. Books like CRIS and Olympic coveted that enormous wiseguy handle, and they began posting the very first bettable numbers on Sunday’s for the following week’s football games.

By the mid-2000’s, the ‘Dust had closed for implosion – its influence on the sportsbetting marketplace had waned considerably from their heyday in the 90’s. Cantor Gaming wasn’t yet on the scene here in Vegas. It seemed as if the offshore world was going to dwarf Sin City when it came to influential sportsbooks setting opening numbers.

MLB and basketball opening lines were now posted the afternoon before the games, while ‘opening’ football lines were all over the place, and most of the very first bets against those numbers were of the arbitrage variety, not opinion bets. Bettors were very happy to lay -2.5 on a game in one book and take +3.5 on that same game at another book. If you were trying to track line moves off the opening numbers there were enormous differences depending on which book or books you were tracking.

Frankly, that hasn’t changed all that much over the last six or eight years. Different books, both here in town, and offshore, are posting different numbers at different times. Those differences aren’t just a half point here or there – particularly early in the season, they can be quite dramatic. And when it comes to Week 1 numbers for the NFL and college football, it’s no easy task to figure out which bets off the openers were ‘opinion’ wagers, and which were purely arbitrage.

NFL Week 1 numbers that have been posted at some books since May. NCAA Week 1 numbers have become widespread this past week but true ‘virgin’ numbers were posted well before MLB’s All Star break. In this type of environment, bettors tracking the ‘opening’ numbers are left with a wild hodge-podge to consider.

Last week, at the first meeting of the year for the legendary ‘Tuesday Group’ of sharp bettors here in Vegas, there was a spirited debate about what the 'official' college football Week 1 opening numbers actually are/were. It was a similar story in the NFL, although the disparity between opening numbers in the pro ranks was much less dramatic.

Two-time Hilton (now LVH) Supercontest winner Steve Fezzik won the argument at the Tuesday Group, because his theory made the most sense. He said that the concept of any single book posting the opening lines for any sport is simply outdated. The books post their initial opinions, but it’s the global betting market, not the sportsbook, who truly sets the opening number.

The majority of the moves off the initial openers (both offshore and here in Vegas) are arbitrage; with wiseguy bettors looking to snap up ‘off-market’ numbers in the brief period when they are available. That’s why we see relatively light action when any single book posts their numbers. The heavier action only comes when another book (or two, or three) posts their opening lines, and bettors take advantage of the variance between them.

For Week 1 of the NFL and college football seasons, those initial variances have been ironed out over the summer months. The NFL openers got pounded into a consensus line fairly quickly; but the college marketplace took longer – books posted later and there was substantially more variance from one book to the next.

So, to get back to my initial question at the top of this article, what is exactly is ‘The Opening Line’? For Week 1, I used a consensus of a major sportsbooks as of last Wednesday, August 7th. At that time, the market had begun to mature, and there was only a half point difference – at the most – between one book’s lines and the others.

By and large, those numbers haven’t moved one iota since last week. If you’re looking for the consensus opening lines, you can walk into any sportsbook or look online today, write down the current numbers and feel comfortable that you’re not missing anything. These numbers won’t start to jump around again until the final week before the season begins.

A consensus opening line takes out the oversized influence of any one book, and takes ‘rogue’ numbers coveted by wiseguys but available to only a few bettors for a very short period of time out of the equation. If you are routinely beating the CLOSING number (at kickoff), you’re doing your job as a savvy bettor. Getting the very best number every time from every book is nearly impossible.

Once the regular season begins, the concept remains the same. Cantor has lines up for every single NFL Game this year through Week 16. LVH posts ‘lookahead’ lines for the NFL more than a week before those games are played. Those can’t be considered ‘opening lines’.

On Sunday afternoons during football season, the Wynn Las Vegas has been posting the very first numbers in recent years. Other books, here in town and offshore, follow soon after. I don’t consider any of those the true ‘opening’ number anymore. Instead, an 8 AM Monday morning ‘consensus’ line is a far better tool for bettors to use when making their subsequent wagers throughout the week.