The Bum's Preseason Best Bets & Pod's ! + QB Rotations

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Betting Notes - Steelers at Redskins

August 19, 2013

Preseason Trends

Even though the Colts beat the Giants 20-12 on the road last night, the home team has still produced a 12-3 straight up and 10-5 against the spread record in Week 2 of the preseason.

Total players have seen a stalemate (7-7-1) in Week 2 after watching the ‘over’ connect at a 70 percent (12-5-1) clip through the Hall of Fame Game and first week.

Tight games have been very common this week with seven of the 15 contests decided by five points or less.

Pittsburgh at Washington (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.) – Click here for Winners

Week 1 Notes

Pittsburgh (0-1) – The Steelers lost to the Giants 18-13 last Saturday as 2 ½-point home favorites. Pittsburgh never led in the game and its only touchdown came in the fourth quarter on a fumble recovery in the endzone.

Washington (1-0) - The Redskins beat the Titans 22-21 last Thursday as three-point road underdogs. Washington trailed 21-14 late in the game before backup quarterback Pat White rallied the ‘Skins for the game-winning score and two-point conversion.

Expected QB Rotation

Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (R - Oklahoma)

Washington - Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman, Pat White

Week 2 Preseason Records (2010-2012)

Pittsburgh – 2-1
Washington – 1-2

Coaching Notes (Overall Preseason Record)

Mike Tomlin (19-7)
Since starting in 2007, Tomlin has never had a record below 3-1 in the preseason. He’s 0-1 this season and has never lost back-to-back games during his tenure in Pittsburgh.

Mike Shanahan (50-23, 9-4 w/Washington)
Three of Shanahan’s four preseason losses with the Redskins have come on the road.

Off the Wire

Pittsburgh

-- The Steelers first-team offense and defense will get a longer look against the Redskins according to reports after both units only played two possessions in Week 1.
-- Rookie running back Le'Veon Bell was held out of Week 1 of the preseason but is expected to make his debut tonight. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will help carry the load.
-- Tight end Heath Miller (knee) will miss Monday’s game and possibly the rest of the preseason.

Washington

-- Kirk Cousins is expected to play for a half before Rex Grossman and Pat White split the final two quarters.
-- Tight end Fred Davis will receive more extensive playing time tonight.
-- Wideouts Pierre Garcon (shoulder) and Donte Stallworth (hamstring) are both ‘doubtful’ for tonight.

Handicapping Notes

-- The Steelers are 4-2 in their last six preseason games on the road
-- The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six preseason games on the road
-- Washington is 5-1 at home in the preseason under Shanahan
-- In 2011, the Redskins beat the Steelers 16-7 in Week 1 of the preseason

Line Analysis

-- Pittsburgh opened as a one-point road favorite last Monday and the line has shifted to home team. Most betting shops have Washington installed as a 2 ½-point favorite.
-- The total opened at 38 and is hovering between 39 and 39 ½ points at multiple outfits.

Expert’s Take – Tony Stoffo

Pittsburgh Preseason Analysis – In Part I of my Preseason Profit Report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the ‘over’ go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.

Washington Preseason Analysis - Mike Shanahan has always taken these preseason games seriously, and a strong trend has developed since his return with the Redskins, and that is that Washington is a perfect 3-0 in their dress rehearsal game since Shanahan has returned dominating their opponent in all three of these games. Washington’s dress rehearsal game this year is against the Bills on Aug. 24.

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NFC East preview: Stiff competition presents value

The competition is fierce in the NFC East.

Dallas narrowly missed the postseason and put Monte Kiffin in charge of revamping a porous defense. The Giants faltered down the stretch after jumping out to a great start last season. The Redskins rode the RGIII train all the way to the division title before the quarterbacks' injury cut their greater aspirations short. Finally, Philly brings in a talented head coach to take the team in a new direction.

Who is going to come out of the East as king of the hill?

Dallas Cowboys (2012: 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +200
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Cowboys: It was another 8-8 season for the Dallas Cowboys, and like their 2012 season, they failed to reach the post-season after losing their final regular season game. So they are close, and with solid offensive line play, Romo is capable of leading the Dallas offense to good things. Overall, the Cowboys have talent all over the field to make the playoffs this season.

Why not to bet the Cowboys: The Dallas defense once again allowed 400 points on the season; their second time in three years. That got defensive coordinator Rob Ryan fired and in steps the grizzled veteran Monte Kiffin. Head coach Jason Garrett is terrible, and he should have been sent packing as well. Dallas has the players, but they do not have the right head coach to lead them.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

New York Giants (2012: 9-7 SU, 7-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +240
Season win total: 9.0

Why to bet the Giants: After beginning last season at 6-2 SU, the New York Giants ended on a disappointing 3-5 run to finish at 9-7 and out of the playoffs. However, the Giants were a much better team than their record indicated. They ranked higher in my power ratings than seven teams that made the playoffs, so there should be value in playing on the Giants this season. Their offense was terrific last season as they scored 429 points which averaged out to 26.8 points per game, 6th best in the NFL.

Why not to bet the Giants: Their problems last year came on defense, not in points allowed (21.5 ppg), but in staying on the field for long stretches which wore them down late in games. That is a concern once again this season, especially since the Giants are not getting any younger.

Season win total pick: Over 9.0

Philadelphia Eagles (2012: 4-12 SU, 3-12-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +450
Season win total: 7.0

Why to bet the Eagles: Chip Kelly is a tremendous coach, and we really like that the Philadelphia Eagles took a risk by relieving longtime head coach Andy Reid in order to give Kelly a chance. He’s a brilliant football mind, and we saw the spread-read option offense have a lot of success in the NFL last season. Teams will definitely adjust and be ready, but we expect Kelly will be a few steps ahead with his intricate offensive system.

Why not to bet the Eagles: The Eagles still need a lot of holes filled on both sides of the football, and they spent a ton of money to improve their leaky defense. Philadelphia is a team we anticipate watching a lot this season because of Kelly’s exceptional football acumen. However, he will need a couple of years to get his type of players on the team and to get the Eagles back to their winning ways.

Season win total pick: Under 7.0

Washington Redskins (2012: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Odds to win division: +250
Season win total: 8.0

Why to bet the Redskins: After starting last season at 3-6 SU, the Redskins finished on a 7-0 run in the regular season to win the division title. Quarterback Robert Griffin III was fantastic and head coach Mike Shanahan used his quarterback to perfection. Unfortunately for Washington, the injury to RGIII in the playoffs sealed their fate. If he can bounce back strong and show no ill-effects from his knee injury, then Washington could possibly repeat last season’s results.

Why not to bet the Redskins: Washington made the playoffs last season despite being out-gained in total yardage on the year. The Redskins had major defensive issues, especially their secondary which ranked #30 in passing yards allowed. Washington still has question marks on defense entering this season, along with a huge concern involving the health of their quarterback RGIII.

Season win total pick: Under 8.0

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NFL preseason primer: Monday game betting breakdown

Pittsburgh at Washington (-1, 38)

Week 2 of the NFL preseason concludes Monday night in the Nation's capital where the RG3-less Redskins host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Obviously, the big story with Washington right now is Griffin's status. The Shanahans aren't even going to let him sniff the field here. And why should they? In fellow second-year QB Kirk Cousins, they have a more than capable backup, one that completed six of seven passes for 52 yards and a touchdown in last week's 22-21 at Tennessee.

The Steelers have some work to do after an ugly performance last week against the Giants. They lost at home 18-13, thanks to a lot of mistakes. They committed seven penalties, had a punt blocked and fumbled a handoff in the end zone, resulting in a safety. The offensive line didn't do a very good job of protecting Ben Roethlisberger while he was in there, and when Big Ben left, the offense didn't do much from there.

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Monday, August 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 8:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500 POD # 1


Washington - Under 38 500 POD # 2

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AFC Outlook

August 19, 2013


In an ominous survey of NFL players arrested since the Super Bowl, as we head into the 2013 season, the good news for the AFC is they lead the NFC - by a thumbprint.

That’s because, as of August 10th, of the 35 players booked by the police in that span, the scorecard read: NFC 18, AFC 17. This compliments of the San Diego Union-Tribune’s NFL Arrests database.

Flash: this just in ... Denver LB Von Miller’s arrest on August 11 evened the score at 18-18.

The most famous of all, unfortunately, was Aaron Hernandez, the 29th player to be arrested for his role in a murder in Connecticut. As a result, Tom Brady and the Patriots find themselves short-handed of receivers, a dilemma of which leaves New England head coach Bill Belichick working overtime as he prepares to defend the AFC East division title.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens not only find themselves with a Super Bowl Bull’s-eye on their back but must also overcome a roster which find’s many of their heroes missing from last year’s squad.
The Houston Texans will look to take advantage with Vegas posting a season win total of 10.5, two wins more than the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens.

The AFC West finds the Denver Broncos with the highest season win-total, 11.5, in the NFL this season. The question begs whether coaching changes in Kansas City and San Diego will thwart Peyton Manning’s return to the postseason.

In closing on a good note it’s positive that, according to Jay Leno, crime in the city of Los Angeles is actually down. "We are proud to say that Los Angeles has one of the lowest crime rates of any major city. You know why? We don't have an NFL team."

Ouch.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

AFC East Division

BUFFALO
Team Theme: HEADLINES IN THE MAKING

The last time Buffalo enjoyed a winning season, a typhoon ripped through a cemetery, leaving hundreds dead, while a ring of debris was found around Uranus. All three factoids were actual headlines in 2004. It’s 10 years later and the playoff desert looks larger than ever to a team with a rebuilding season ahead in a tough division. The revamp starts at the top where the Bills followed in Tampa Bay’s shoes by raiding the Big East and bringing in Syracuse’s Doug Marrone (25-25 in four seasons) and his 33-year old offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was immediately dispatched replaced with Kevin Kolb and first round draft choice EJ Manuel. Second and 3rd round WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin join Stevie Johnson at the wide out positions while RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson supply grunt out of the backfield. Meanwhile, new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine comes over from the Jets. He’ll take over a stop-unit that, after surrendering more than 400 yards in eight games during the 2011 season, chopped that number in half last year. For a team that hasn’t made it to the playoffs in 13 years – the NFL’s longest active drought – it’s no wonder there’s a chill in the air in Buffalo.

Stat You Will Like: The Bills own six division wins the last five seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. NY Jets (11/17)

IN THE STATS: The Bills allowed more than 400 yards in one of their final 10 games of the season last year.

MIAMI
Team Theme: A MIAMI MAKEOVER

With a cache full of money to spend and five of the first 82 selections heading into the draft, GM Jeff Ireland was like a kid under the tree on Christmas Day this offseason. After some wheeling and dealing, he came away with pass rusher Dion Jordan with the No. 3 pick in the draft after acquiring the services of free agent WR Mike Wallace, LB Dannell Ellerbe and TE Dustin Keller (lost for the season with preseason knee injury). He unwrapped his final gift when he secured the services of Pro Bowl OT Tyson Clabo from Atlanta to fill the hole left by the loss of Jake Long. And if you feel QB Ryan Tannehill is due for a case of the Sophomore Blues that figures to be running rampant this season by the five rookie starting quarterbacks in 2011, you’re not on the same page with Mike Sherman, the Dolphins’ offensive coordinator. “He will be the most improved quarterback in the NFL from year one to year two… I promise you that.” Further validating the claim is the fact his teammates raved about how Tannehill ran offseason voluntary workouts. “He works like he hasn’t made it yet,” said WR Brian Tyms. However, unless a wide receiving corps that failed to score more than one touchdown pass last season steps up, the gap that includes: 13 years since a playoff win, 21 years since reaching the AFC championship game, 29 years since making the Super Bowl and 40 years since a most recent NFL title, could continue in 2013.

Stat You Will Like: The Dolphins are 4-15 SU versus AFC North opponents, including 0-6 ATS as favorites.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Cincinnati (10/31) - *KEY as a favorite

IN THE STATS: The Dolphins are 5-11 ‘ITS’ at home the last two years.

NEW ENGLAND
Team Theme: NOSTRADAMUS OR NOSTRADUMBASS?

The coaching genius that he is, Bill Belichick dipped under .500 last year for the first time since 2003. In fact, when his Patriots were sitting at just 3-3 to start the season, Belichick’s critics were so gay they began coming out of the closet. It’s been eight years since the Pats last won a Super Bowl they argued. And they are just 8-7 in their last 15 playoff games said others. A lot of the luster has worn off of late and is certainly due to the fact New England’s defense has ranked 25th, 31st and 25th the past three seasons. Making matters worse, four of last year’s top five receivers — Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez and RB Danny Woodhead — are gone. Complicating matters, Pro Bowl TE Gronkowski could miss start of season after surgeries on his forearm and back. As a result it forced the Pats’ hand when they signed Danny Amendola and LeGarrette Blount as the new replacements. Compounding matters, the Patriots will go up against the toughest non-division slate of all teams in the league this season with non-AFC East foes owning a 98-72 (.576) mark last season. Yes, the mastermind has his work cut out for him in 2013.

Stat You Will Like: Bill Belichick was 67-0 straight up at home with Tom Brady with a lead at halftime until they lost to Baltimore in the AFC championship game last season.

PLAY ON: at Baltimore (12/22) - *KEY if a dog

IN THE STATS: The Patriots have allowed season-high, or 2nd-high, yards in 12 games the L2Y.

NY JETS
Team Theme: LEAVING ON A JET PLANE

The Gang Green circus returns for another performance this fall and if this year’s troupe resembles last year’s tumultuous act, it will leave fans calling for heads. It was said the best offensive play by the Jets last season was calling a timeout. And that was without the NFL’s most famous backup quarterback, Tim Tebow, taking any snaps. Saint Tim was released in the offseason, paving the way for Mark Sanchez to make one last stand. However, don’t look for him to be released this season. If they were to hand Sanchez his walking papers this year, they would take a $12.8M salary cap hit. If they release him next year, it would become a $4.8M hit. Regardless, Sanchez is guaranteed $8.25 this campaign whether he plays or not. Hence, it would be no surprise to find much ballyhooed QB Geno Smith performing before the act folds up its tent by season’s end. Yes, new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg has work cut out, with new RBs and a mostly inexperienced WR corps, especially with Santonio Holmes still recovering from foot injury and uncertain to be ready for regular season. Despite taking on only one foe with a winning record last year over the second-half of the season, it’s looking like all-world CB Darrelle Revis got out of town just in the nick of time.

Stat You Will Like: QB Mark Sanchez is 14-17 the last two years with a league-high 52 turnovers.

IN THE STATS: The Jets have gained more than 400 yards only three times in the last 41 games.

AFC North Division

BALTIMORE
Team Theme: THE WIZARD OF OZ

Say what you will about the retirement of future Hall of Fame LB Ray Lewis and the loss of three free agent defections in LB Dannell Ellerbe, DE Paul Kruger and S Ed Reed – GM Ozzie Newsome did not panic. Instead, he made the signing of QB Joe Flacco priority-one, then went out and signed Pro Bowl DE Elvis Dumervil before attacking the draft with a defensive makeover plan that infused the unit with playmakers and speed. Remember, this team actually allowed more yards than it gained last year, no thanks to a declining defense that slipped 73 YPG from the previous season. They will be forced to pay the price for winning last year’s Super Bowl, however, as the Ravens’ 2013 non-division opponents were 94-74 (.560) last season, 2nd most difficult schedule in the league… all while wearing a major Bull’s-eye on their back. Say what you want, this isn’t same team that won Super Bowl, but the Ravens are confident additions they made will compensate for loss of several key players and enable them to contend for division title. In closing, while lauding Lewis’ career, our favorite sports columnist, Greg Cote of the Miami Herald, insists “He was so good his statue will lead the Ravens in tackles in 2013.”

Stat You Will Like: The Ravens are the only NFL team to make the playoffs each of the last five years.

PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (10/13) - *KEY as a dog

IN THE STATS: The Super Bowl champs held zero foes to season-low yardage last year.

CINCINNATI
Team Theme: CATS ON THE PROWL

You knew it was coming. It was just a matter of how long it would last. As expected last year, like a bad case of the flu, a dreaded case of Sophomore Blues attacked Bengals QB Andy Dalton. To his credit, he shook it off in time to lead his charges back to the postseason for a 2nd-straight year when Cincinnati turned a 3-5 start into a 7-1 finish in 2012. A superlative draft that landed TE Tyler Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard figures to compliment Jay Gruden’s hybrid West Coast offense while taking double-teams away from star WR A.J. Green. The second-half improvement last year was keyed by a defense that allowed 12.8 PPG while totaling 31 sacks, en route to a team record 51 sacks overall. The addition of Pro Bowl LB James Harrison is like the icing on the cake. Making back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 1982 – and first back-to-back winning seasons in a non-strike year since 1976 – has these Cats licking their paws. Now they want to break a streak of futility in the postseason, with the last win coming in the 1990 season, tied for seventh-longest such streak in NFL history. Considering they have never reached the playoffs three years in a row, the pressure is on.

Stat You Will Like: Andy Dalton is the only quarterback in NFL history to make the playoffs in his first two seasons while throwing for at least 20 touchdowns each year.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Green Bay (9/22)

IN THE STATS: The Bengals were 3-1 ‘ITS’ in non-conference games last season.

CLEVELAND
Team Theme: CH-CH-CHANGES

Under new ownership, Toledo native Rob Chudzinski becomes the 6th head coach in 10 years for Cleveland this season. After scoring more than 20 points in only six games over two seasons, the Browns saw all they wanted to see from Pat Shurmur. Chudzinski served as Browns offensive coordinator in 2007, the last time they enjoyed a winning season. After inking Chudzinski, Cleveland immediately signed former San Diego head coach Norv Turner as its new offensive coordinator. He will implement an up-tempo attack that should benefit QB Brandon Weeden, a strong-armed shotgun passer. The addition of WR Davone Best and added production from a healthy RB Trent Richardson should provide an added boost to the offense. Meanwhile, Arizona’s fiery former DC Ray Horton will reconstruct the defense, transitioning to 3-4 with multiple attacking fronts. The best news is the Browns will take on the easiest non-division strength-of-schedule this campaign, with foes going 72-93 (.436) in 2012. For a team that has averaged more than 11 losses per season the last five years, those changes are welcome.

Stat You Will Like: The Browns held the Steelers to season-low yardage in each of the two meetings last year.

PLAY ON: vs. Baltimore (9/15)

IN THE STATS: The Browns are 19-61 ‘ITS’ in all games the last five seasons.

PITTSBURGH
Team Theme: SOUND THE BELL

If there is one thing you can count on year after year, it’s Santa Claus working overtime on Christmas eve – and an impregnable Steelers ‘D’. And like clockwork, Saint Nick once again delivered as promised while, behind DC Dick LeBeau, the league’s No. 1 ranked injury-marred defense held seven opponents to season-low, or 2nd-low, yards last year. And speaking of injuries, Ben Roethlisberger was enjoying a career year last season before he injured his ribs and the Steelers staggered to a 2-5 finish thereafter. One can only imagine what happens when or if Big Ben and Troy Polamalu return to health. Help starts with more options on offense and that’s where the selection of RB Le’Veon Bell in this year’s draft kick starts the new plan. OC Todd Haley insists Bell has ‘Eddie George physical traits,’ so he should become the workhorse back they’ve missed since the retirement of Jerome Bettis. LeBeau knows finding a replacement for Pro Bowl – and major head case – LB James Harrison will become a main priority but believes Jason Worilds can be the man. Remember this: Pittsburgh hasn’t endured consecutive non-winning seasons since Bill Clinton was president (1998-99). Get the Terrible Towels out...the Steel Curtain is back.

Stat You Will Like: Teams are 37-55 SU and 32-57-3 ATS facing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, including 12-33-2 ATS when favored.

PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee (9/8)

IN THE STATS: The Steelers are 53-15 ‘ITS’ in all games since 2009, including 12-4 LY.

AFC South Division

HOUSTON
Team Theme: TALL TALL TEXANS

Riding high in the saddle following back-to-back AFC South titles, the Texans are once again the class of their division and arguably the entire AFC. After ascending to new heights last year, Houston did not stand still during the offseason when they acquired Hall of Fame FS Ed Reed and P Shane Lechler. They will combine with reigning NFL defensive player of the year J.J. Watt (81 tackles and 20.5 sacks) to form one of the best stop-units in the league, all under the lead of DC Wade Phillips. Its no coincidence the Texans’ defense has improved an average 73.5 YPG the last two years since it flamed out in a 6-win season in 2010. On the offensive front, coordinator Rick Dennison gobbled up dynamic WR DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson in the first round of the draft. He’ll work in tandem with star WR Andre Johnson. Along with thoroughbred RB Arian Foster, a tantalizing trio of skill players surrounds QB Matt Schaub. It’s like we mentioned on these pages last year: between Gary Kubiak’s playbook, Dennison’s offensive mind and Phillips’ stingy defensive schemes, the Texans are standing extra tall with sights on the Super Bowl these days.

Stat You Will Like: The Texans are 0-4 ATS away versus NFC West opponents in their franchise history.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (9/15)

IN THE STATS: The Texans are 24-12 ‘In The Stats’ the last two seasons.

INDIANAPOLIS
Team Theme: WHAT GOES UP...

When the Colts jumped from 2-14 to 11-6 after selecting QB Andrew Luck with the first pick of the draft last year they recorded the 2nd biggest turnaround in NFL history. Only the 2008 Dolphins, who went from 1-15 to 11-5, made a larger leap. It should be noted that the other two teams in NFL annals making this much of an improvement regressed four and three games respectively the following year. The feeling here is regression is likely this season: despite their improvement, last year’s 11-win Colts actually allowed 12 YPG more than they gained. That and a case of Sophomore Blues appear to be lurking in the offing for Luck. Helping matters, Indy will face the 3rd softest strength-of-schedule opponents in 2013 (last year’s foes .461 overall), including four games with the NFC West (Colts are 7-1 SU against the division since 2005). Then again, Peyton Manning put up those numbers. The return of head coach Chuck Pagano, back from a bout with cancer, could offset a ton of history. Don’t forget: the Colts have made the playoffs 11 times the last 13 seasons. Stay tuned.

Stat You Will Like: The Colts own the weakest rushing attack in the AFC the last four years, averaging just over 95 RYPG.

PLAY AGAINST: at Kansas City (12/22)

IN THE STATS: The Colts were 0-5 ‘ITS’ during the final five games of the season last year.

JACKSONVILLE
Team Theme: SIGN, SIGN, EVERYWHERE A SIGN

Despite a fall from 5 wins to 2 last year, the worst in franchise history, signs of improvement abound. Consider: after being outgained in 11 of their first 12 games of the 2012 season, the Jaguars refused to raise the white flag when they won the stats in three of their final four games. In addition, after failing to gain more than 325 yards in any game in 2011, Jacksonville bettered that mark on seven different occasions last year. Toss in the fact that of the 17 teams who won 2 or fewer games the previous season, 16 of them have improved on their win total this millennium (witness the Colts and Rams last year) the following season. New head coach Gus Bradley brings a defensive pedigree to Jacksonville, a team that ranked 30th in total ‘D’ last season while allowing 444 points, a franchise-record. He was Seattle’s defensive coordinator the last four years and his unit allowed a league-low 15.3 PPG last season. New offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch returns to the NFL after two years at the University of Miami, banking on first-round pick OT Luke Joeckel’s ability to plow open running lanes for a healthy Maurice Jones-Drew.

Stat You Will Like: The Jaguars are 10-6 SU all-time versus the NFC West with only three losses by more than 4 points.

PLAY ON: at Seattle (9/22)

IN THE STATS: The Jaguars are 15-33 ‘ITS’ the L3Y, but 3-1 ‘ITS’ the L4 games of 2012.

TENNESSEE
Team Theme: BLUE COLLAR NETWORK

It was no surprise whatsoever to witness the blue-collar moves made by Mike Munchak and the Titans this offseason. After all, Munchak is a Hall of Fame offensive lineman and he did what he knows best – rebuild the offensive line – in order to keep his job a while longer in Tennessee. A three-game slippage with falling numbers on both sides of the ball sent Munchak into desperation mode when he signed G Andy Levitre (Bills) and selected G Chance Warmack (Alabama) in the first round of this year’s draft. The moves should benefit QB Jake Locker and RB Chris Johnson who, despite rushing for 1,000-plus yards in each of his five seasons in the league, has seen his numbers fall appreciably since his 2,006-yard performance in 2006. As a result, Johnson expects the Titans to become a ground-and-pound ‘run-first’ offense. It’s safe to assume that if Munchak is gone at the end of the year, so too will be Locker - a top-10 pick two years ago who, after witnessing last year’s successful rookie crop of quarterbacks, suddenly finds the clock ticking. After having last made the playoffs in 2008 and spending $100 million dollars on free agents, owner Bud Adams is expecting results...now.

Stat You Will Like: The Titans have allowed season-high, or 2nd-high, yards in 7 of their first 14 games under Munchak.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Houston (12/29)

IN THE STATS: The Titans won the stats in 4 of their final 6 games last season.

AFC West Division

DENVER
Team Theme: PEYTON’S RACE

Realizing star QB Peyton Manning is not getter any younger (who is?), the Broncos were busy in the offseason making moves to bolster a run to the Super Bowl now. WR Wes Welker moves over from New England while G Louis Vasquez leaves San Diego’s starting lineup for Denver’s. In addition, VP of Football Operations John Elway slapped the franchise tag on OT Ryan Clady. Meanwhile, former Broncos QB coach Adam Gase assumes the new offensive coordinator role with Mike McCoy taking over the reins in San Diego. Jack Del Rio returns as the defensive coordinator, the first time Denver has had the same DC in consecutive seasons since 2005-06. The selection of Wisconsin’s Montee Ball in the 2nd round of the draft could be a coup as the workhorse running back also blocks and has excellent hands, prerequisites for working in a Manning backfield. It all works provided Denver’s offensive line stays healthy. So does the schedule with the Broncos facing, by far, the softest strength-of-schedule opponents in 2013 (last year’s foes .430 overall). It’s Super Bowl or bust for the Broncos.

Stat You Will Like: Peyton Manning’s 37 TD passes and his 105.8 QB rating at the end of the season were the 2nd best numbers of his career.

PLAY ON: as a dog at New England (11/24)

IN THE STATS: The SU stat winner was 15-2 SU in Broncos games last season.

KANSAS CITY
Team Theme: ON THE CORNER OF 12TH ST AND VINE

Much like the two-win Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chiefs are resigned to the fact that there is no place to go but up in 2013. After turning over half the roster, the pieces are in place with Andy Reid, the lone new coach in the league this year with previous NFL head coaching experience. His team sports a downy-soft non-division strength-of-schedule in 2013, with Chiefs’ opponents going 74-90 (.451) last season. In addition, Reid is 140-102-1 overall in his NFL career with five NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl appearance. An upgrade at the quarterback position (Alex Smith in; Matt Cassel out, and pistol-guru Chris Ault on board as a consultant), along with the top pick in this year’s draft (OL Eric Fisher) and offensive weapons Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe indicate certain signs of improvement on that side of the ball. The defense was bolstered by the free agent signings of CBs Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson, plus DE Mike DeVito. Along with talented pass rusher Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson and DB Eric Berry, Andy is feeling just dandy about his move from Philadelphia to Kansas City. Look out Kansas City, here he comes.

Stat You Will Like: The Chiefs had six Pro Bowlers last season.

PLAY ON: at Buffalo (11/3)

IN THE STATS: After going 5-0 ‘ITS’ to start 2012, the Chiefs went 2-9 ‘ITS’ the final 11 games.

OAKLAND
Team Theme: BUY A PROGRAM

In a season of makeovers, the Raiders are laying down a new foundation. QB Carson Palmer and his favorite target, TE Brandon Myers, are gone along with WR Darrius Heyward-Bey. On the defensive front, DT Tommy Kelly and S Michael Huff have departed. In fact, only ONE player from the front seven returns. (That’s what happens after tying a franchise low with 25 sacks last season.) It’s likely nine of 11 positions on defense will find players with new names on the back of their jerseys. Meanwhile, free agent QB Matt Flynn replaces Palmer but it should be noted Flynn, after inking a big free agent contract last year, failed to beat out 3rd-round QB Russell Wilson at Seattle. However, don’t be surprised if Flynn isn’t pushed for the starting job by Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) who highly respected QB coach-guru Terry Shea insists, “makes all the throws and will be a good player in this league for a long while.” And if all this isn’t enough, the Raiders signed free agent WR-KR Joshua Cribbs, a three-time Pro Bowler. Finally, in an effort to avoid blackouts, Oakland removed 9,882 seats from the O.co Coliseum, reducing the seating capacity to 53,250 (the lowest in the league).

Stat You Will Like: The Raiders are 15-3 ATS as division road dogs the last six seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Pittsburgh (10/27)

IN THE STATS: The Raiders have allowed over 400 yards in 10 of 16 home games the L2Y.

SAN DIEGO
Team Theme: JUST IMAGINE

When new head coach Mike McCoy, Denver’s former offensive coordinator, interviewed for the San Diego job, he brought along binders full of detailed plans and visualization and won over the Chargers’ top brass. It wasn’t hard, considering San Diego has missed out on the playoffs each of the last three years. Make no mistake: this is as close to a major overhaul as the Chargers have seen in quite a while. Included was a plan to build a fortress around Philip Rivers to better protect the franchise quarterback. Rivers was sacked 49 times last season, trailing only Aaron Rodgers (51) for most takedowns. The Chargers immediately signed two free agent guards and used their first pick in the draft on OT D.J. Fluker of Alabama. Just as important, they named former Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt as the new offensive coordinator to call the plays, a marked difference from former coach Norv Turner who handled both duties. Whisenhunt has coached QBs Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner and figures to revive Rivers’ career. Newest additions to the Chargers defense, which improved 20 YPG in 2012, are Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney and Notre Dame LB Manti Te’o, who fills a need at ILB. We can only imagine he will.

Stat You Will Like: The Chargers were 6-13 SU and 7-12 ATS in Eastern Time Zone cities with Norv Turner.

PLAY AGAINST: at Oakland (10/6)

IN THE STATS: The Chargers were outgained in each of their last seven games in 2012.

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AFC North preview: Can revamped Ravens compete?

The Baltimore Ravens not only find themselves with a Super Bowl Bull’s-eye on their back but must also overcome a roster which find’s many of their heroes missing from last year’s squad.

AFC North Division

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Team Theme: THE WIZARD OF OZ

Say what you will about the retirement of future Hall of Fame LB Ray Lewis and the loss of three free agent defections in LB Dannell Ellerbe, DE Paul Kruger and S Ed Reed – GM Ozzie Newsome did not panic. Instead, he made the signing of QB Joe Flacco priority-one, then went out and signed Pro Bowl DE Elvis Dumervil before attacking the draft with a defensive makeover plan that infused the unit with playmakers and speed. Remember, this team actually allowed more yards than it gained last year, no thanks to a declining defense that slipped 73 YPG from the previous season. They will be forced to pay the price for winning last year’s Super Bowl, however, as the Ravens’ 2013 non-division opponents were 94-74 (.560) last season, 2nd most difficult schedule in the league… all while wearing a major Bull’s-eye on their back. Say what you want, this isn’t same team that won Super Bowl, but the Ravens are confident additions they made will compensate for loss of several key players and enable them to contend for division title. In closing, while lauding Lewis’ career, our favorite sports columnist, Greg Cote of the Miami Herald, insists “He was so good his statue will lead the Ravens in tackles in 2013.”

Stat You Will Like: The Ravens are the only NFL team to make the playoffs each of the last five years.

PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (10/13) - *KEY as a dog

IN THE STATS: The Super Bowl champs held zero foes to season-low yardage last year.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Team Theme: CATS ON THE PROWL

You knew it was coming. It was just a matter of how long it would last. As expected last year, like a bad case of the flu, a dreaded case of Sophomore Blues attacked Bengals QB Andy Dalton. To his credit, he shook it off in time to lead his charges back to the postseason for a 2nd-straight year when Cincinnati turned a 3-5 start into a 7-1 finish in 2012. A superlative draft that landed TE Tyler Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard figures to compliment Jay Gruden’s hybrid West Coast offense while taking double-teams away from star WR A.J. Green. The second-half improvement last year was keyed by a defense that allowed 12.8 PPG while totaling 31 sacks, en route to a team record 51 sacks overall. The addition of Pro Bowl LB James Harrison is like the icing on the cake. Making back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 1982 – and first back-to-back winning seasons in a non-strike year since 1976 – has these Cats licking their paws. Now they want to break a streak of futility in the postseason, with the last win coming in the 1990 season, tied for seventh-longest such streak in NFL history. Considering they have never reached the playoffs three years in a row, the pressure is on.

Stat You Will Like: Andy Dalton is the only quarterback in NFL history to make the playoffs in his first two seasons while throwing for at least 20 touchdowns each year.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Green Bay (9/22)

IN THE STATS: The Bengals were 3-1 ‘ITS’ in non-conference games last season.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Team Theme: CH-CH-CHANGES

Under new ownership, Toledo native Rob Chudzinski becomes the 6th head coach in 10 years for Cleveland this season. After scoring more than 20 points in only six games over two seasons, the Browns saw all they wanted to see from Pat Shurmur. Chudzinski served as Browns offensive coordinator in 2007, the last time they enjoyed a winning season. After inking Chudzinski, Cleveland immediately signed former San Diego head coach Norv Turner as its new offensive coordinator. He will implement an up-tempo attack that should benefit QB Brandon Weeden, a strong-armed shotgun passer. The addition of WR Davone Best and added production from a healthy RB Trent Richardson should provide an added boost to the offense. Meanwhile, Arizona’s fiery former DC Ray Horton will reconstruct the defense, transitioning to 3-4 with multiple attacking fronts. The best news is the Browns will take on the easiest non-division strength-of-schedule this campaign, with foes going 72-93 (.436) in 2012. For a team that has averaged more than 11 losses per season the last five years, those changes are welcome.

Stat You Will Like: The Browns held the Steelers to season-low yardage in each of the two meetings last year.

PLAY ON: vs. Baltimore (9/15)

IN THE STATS: The Browns are 19-61 ‘ITS’ in all games the last five seasons.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Team Theme: SOUND THE BELL

If there is one thing you can count on year after year, it’s Santa Claus working overtime on Christmas eve – and an impregnable Steelers ‘D’. And like clockwork, Saint Nick once again delivered as promised while, behind DC Dick LeBeau, the league’s No. 1 ranked injury-marred defense held seven opponents to season-low, or 2nd-low, yards last year. And speaking of injuries, Ben Roethlisberger was enjoying a career year last season before he injured his ribs and the Steelers staggered to a 2-5 finish thereafter. One can only imagine what happens when or if Big Ben and Troy Polamalu return to health. Help starts with more options on offense and that’s where the selection of RB Le’Veon Bell in this year’s draft kick starts the new plan. OC Todd Haley insists Bell has ‘Eddie George physical traits,’ so he should become the workhorse back they’ve missed since the retirement of Jerome Bettis. LeBeau knows finding a replacement for Pro Bowl – and major head case – LB James Harrison will become a main priority but believes Jason Worilds can be the man. Remember this: Pittsburgh hasn’t endured consecutive non-winning seasons since Bill Clinton was president (1998-99). Get the Terrible Towels out… the Steel Curtain is back.

Stat You Will Like: Teams are 37-55 SU and 32-57-3 ATS facing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, including 12-33-2 ATS when favored.

PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee (9/8)

IN THE STATS: The Steelers are 53-15 ‘ITS’ in all games since 2009, including 12-4 LY.


Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2013 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

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Best over/under bets of NFL preseason Week 3

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 3 of the exhibition schedule.

Records since 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 3 over bets

Denver Broncos (10-7 SU, 12-5 O/U in Week 3)

The Broncos are 1-1 O/U thus far in the 2013 preseason after being defeated by the Seattle Seahawks 40-10 in Week 2. In the two combined games, Denver has managed just 20 points with quarterback Brock Osweiler getting the bulk of snaps on offense. The Broncos host the St. Louis Rams in their Week 3 game and it will be the first home game of the preseason. Both home games went over the total in their 2012 preseason.

Indianapolis Colts (7-9 SU, 11-5 O/U in Week 3)

The Colts were one of the top under plays in the 2012 regular season (6-10 O/U) but have trended over the total in Week 3 of the preseason since '95. Indy was throttled in its preseason opener 44-20 drawing the ire of team owner Jim Irsay. They bounced back in fine fashion, defeating the New York Giants 20-12 in Week 2 behind a pair of TD tosses by Andrew Luck.The Colts have played over the total in three consecutive Week 3 preseason games. Indy will host the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.


Best NFL preseason Week 3 under bets

New York Giants (2-15 SU, 4-13 O/U in Week 3)

The G-Men are already 0-2 O/U to start the 2013 preseason, with their Week 2 matchup against the Colts playing under the 41 point total Sunday night. The Giants have played under the total in three straight Week 3 preseason games.

New York Jets (13-4 SU, 4-13 O/U in Week 3)

The Jets are coming off a massive Week 2 37-13 blowout of the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. The big offensive production pushed their O/U record to 2-0 in their two preseason games. Mark Sanchez played the majority of the game and the rushing attack - spearheaded by Bilal Powell - looked effective against the Jags.

The Jets and Giants meetup in Week 3.

The two clubs traditionally square off in the preseason and have played under the total in eight of the last 10 and two straight heading into their 2013 matchup.

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NFL betting: Tracking 2-point conversion attempts

Preseason football is all about working on a variety of different areas to prepare for the trials and tribulations of the regular season.

One area which teams work on more often than you'll see in the regular season is the 2-point conversion. Offenses use the opportunity to fine tune their red zone offenses.

Those extra points gained - or lost - can be the difference with such small spreads in the preseason. Through the first two weeks of preseason football, seven teams have attempted the 2-point conversion.

You can probably expect the majority, if not all, of the 25 teams that haven't run a 2-point conversion play to do so in the final two weeks of exhibition football. That one point could be the difference from your pick covering - or failing to cover - the spread.

Here is a list of those seven that have already worked on 2-point conversions:

Week 1

St. Louis Rams @ Cleveland Browns - The Rams failed on their 2-point conversion.
Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans - The Skins successfully converted a 2-point conversion.
New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles successfully converted a 2-point conversion.

Week 2

Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens failed on their 2-point conversion.
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings failed on their 2-point conversion.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots - The Pats successfully converted a 2-point conversion.
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Titans failed on their 2-point conversion.

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Pass for Profits

August 21, 2013



The Biggest Indicators for Projecting Team Success

Flat out there is one statistic that is so HUGE in determining the outcomes of NFL games. What is it? Its yards per passing attempt (YPA).

I didn’t notice many discussing this statistic about six years ago when I started crunching the numbers, and really touting its importance whenever, wherever I could. And year after year, season after season, this metric is about as close to a “LOCK” as you can get when talking NFL statistics and their correlation to points scored, which leads to straight up wins/losses, and against the spread win/losses.

There really are so many angles to take when simply using this one statistic, but let’s start by combining this metric with Turnover Margin (TOM), and show how critical those two combined are to a team’s performance.

How rare is it for a team to win a game, but lose both of those statistics in that same game? The answer is it’s extremely rare; it’s absolutely critical for a team to excel in both those areas. To show the point, let’s go back the last four seasons, and show how many times it occurred – a team winning the game, but being negative in TOM and NET YPA.

Believe it or not, there is every game over the last 4 seasons where a team WON the game SU, yet LOST both TOM & YPA in that same game. As a reminder, there are 256 wins per season across the NFL; since we are looking at FOUR years here multiply that by 4 which equals 1,024 wins for this analysis. Of those winners only 36 of them were won by a team that lost both the TOM & YPA in that same game. That equals 3.5% of the games played over the last FOUR years! That is truly amazing!

2012
Game Winner TOM NET YPA
Tampa Bay at Carolina TB 27-21 (2) (2.5)
Carolina at Chicago CHI 23-22 (1) (3.3)
Jacksonville at Houston HOU 43-37 (2) (1.3)
Cleveland at Indianapolis IND 17-13 (1) (1.0)
Indianapolis at Tennessee IND 19-13 (1) (0.1)
Indianapolis at Detroit IND 35-33 (2) (0.2)
New York Giants at Washington WAS 17-16 (1) (0.2)
Arizona at New England ARI 20-18 (1) (0.9)
Seattle at Chicago SEA 23-17 (1) (1.1)
Kansas City at New Orleans KC 27-24 (2) (0.1)
2011
Game Winner TOM NET YPA
Cincinnati at Denver DEN 24-22 (2) (0.3)
San Francisco at Detroit SF 25-19 (2) (1.1)
Houston at New Orleans NO 40-33 (1) (1.2)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans NO 27-16 (1) (0.2)
Dallas at New England NE 20-16 (2) (0.9)
Houston at Cincinnati HOU 20-19 (2) (0.8)
Dallas at New York Jets NYJ 27-24 (1) (1.6)
Buffalo at New York Jets NYJ 28-24 (2) (0.9)
St. Louis at Cleveland STL 13-12 (1) (1.5)
Kansas City at San Diego SD 20-17 (1) (0.4)
Arizona at St. Louis ARI 23-20 (1) (1.4)
Miami at Dallas DAL 20-19 (1) (1.1)
2010
Game Winner TOM NET YPA
Carolina at New Orleans NO 16-14 (1) (0.3)
Philadelphia at New York Giants PHI 38-31 (1) (0.6)
Baltimore at New England NE 23-20 (2) (1.6)
Chicago at Carolina CHI 23-6 (1) (0.4)
Miami at New York Jets MIA 10-6 (1) (2.6)
Houston at Washington HOU 30-27 (1) (1.6)
Oakland at Arizona ARI 24-23 (2) (2.3)
Tennessee at San Diego SD 33-25 (1) (0.4)
2009
Game Winner TOM NET YPA
Cleveland at Kansas City CLE 41-34 (2) (4.2)
Tenneessee at Houston TEN 20-17 (1) (1.3)
Denver at Indianapolis IND 28-16 (2) (0.8)
Oakland at Denver OAK 20-19 (2) (3.5)
Washington at Dallas DAL 7-6 (1) (1.1)
Carolina at Tampa Bay CAR 28-21 (1) (2.7)


Now, let’s move on to breaking down YPA on its own, as simply by itself it has an enormous correlation to success. Over the same four seasons, 58 of 63 (92%) teams that have finished with a NET POSITIVE YPA (Offensive YPA minus Defensive YPA) have had an 8-8 or better record that season. Who are the five teams that missed the mark?

2009 Washington Redskins, who were 6.01 OFF YPA, 5.89 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.12 – that is narrowly in the positive category, and WAS went 4-12.

2010 Tennessee Titans, who were 6.36 OFF YPA, 5.96 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.39 – they went 6-10.

2012 Carolina Panthers, who were 7.19 OFF YPA, 5.96 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +1.23 – they went 7-9 including the pair of wins teams picked up against them mentioned above. As another reminder this is a team we are extremely bullish on heading into 2012, and would not be shocked to see them win the competitive NFC South.

2012 Detroit Lions, who were 6.43 OFF YPA, 6.12 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.31 – they only won 4 games, and once again are a team we are bullish on for the upcoming season.

2012 St. Louis Rams, who were 6.19 OFF YPA, 6.13 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.07 – extremely narrowly in the positive category, and the Rams just missed going .500 at 7-9.

What’s more, examining the last 3 seasons, here are the team’s that were positive in YPA each year, and where they rank in wins during that same period

Positive YPA '10, '11, '12
Teams Wins Wins Rankg
New England 39 1
Green Bay 36 2
Baltimore 34 4
Pittsburgh 32 5
*Atlanta tied with Green Bay's 36 wins but had negative YPA in 2010


We can see just how solid this metric is for identifying the best teams in the NFL – each of those teams has appeared in the Super Bowl over those three seasons, with Green Bay and Baltimore winning championships in 2010 and 2012 seasons. The Top 7, and 14 of 16 teams in the NFL over the last three seasons as measured by SU wins were positive in NET AVERAGE YPA over those seasons.

Now that we have discussed NET YPA, let’s focus on offensive YPA, which is definitely more impactful compared to defensive YPA. The first angle I will present is some key by year trends within the OYPA data:

2009: Top 16 were all at least 8-8.

2010: Nine of the top 11 were at least 8-8.

2011: Top 12 were all at least 8-8.

2012: Ten of the top 13 were 8-8 with the three that missed #3 New Orleans, #4 Carolina & #10 Tampa Bay going 7-9 (note all NFC South teams, very competitive and offensive division).

Summary: If you look at the top 11 teams each year in OYPA since the 2009 season, 39 of the 44 finished at least 8-8. Get that OYPA up and your chances of reaching the playoffs dramatically increases.

Lastly, let’s move to defensive YPA. Although when testing statistically it does not have quite the same impact on game to game results as OYPA does, it is still useful and clear trends can be seen in the data – especially full seasons. Here are some of those key trends over the last four seasons:

2009: 10 of top 11 were at least 8-8.

2010: 8 of the top 9 were at least 8-8.

2011: Top 9 were all at least 8-8

2012: Top 8 were all at least 8-8 with 7 of 8 winning 10+ (PIT going 8-8 lone non 10 win team)

Summary: If you look at the top 8 teams each year in DYPA since the 2009 season, an amazing 31 of 32 finished at least 8-8.

YPA, especially NET YPA, but also OYPA and to a lesser degree DYPA all have significant impacts on the success of NFL teams on a week to week basis. You saw all the numbers above, and they came to a conclusion that the better you are in NET YPA, the more likely you make the playoffs. And any team that can come up with a top 10-ish YPA, whether OFF or DEF has a very good chance at making the playoffs – or at the very least being in the mix as the calendar turns to December.

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NFL preseason primer: Thursday game betting breakdown


Here's a quick look at what to expect in Thursday's two NFL preseason tilts.

New England at Detroit (-2.5, 46)

The Patriots are off to a flawless 2-0 start to the preseason, winning in Philadelphia and at home against Tampa Bay. Like most teams, they're treating this game as a 'dress rehearsal' for the regular season. Tom Brady hinted that the team will play with a sense or purpose on Thursday night at Ford Field. “We’re going on the road, tough environment; we went there a few years ago and didn’t do very well, which we’ve already heard about for three days now,” Brady said. “So we’re going to have to do better than we did the last time.” Guard Logan Mankins said that the team did watch Lions game film on Monday and also had crowd noise pumped in at practice in anticipation of a loud environment in Detroit. Brady has been wearing a knee brace at practice, but is still expected to play through the first half - along with the rest of the starting units. Wide receiver Danny Amendola isn't likely to be on the field, as he has yet to practice this week due to an undisclosed injury.

Detroit won its preseason opener against the Jets but followed it up with a stinker in Cleveland last week. Head coach Jim Schwarz hasn't tipped his hand as to exactly how long starters will play, but has indicated that quarterback Matt Stafford will see at least a half of action. Safety Glover Quin welcomes the challenge of facing Tom Brady and company. "Let me go into the preseason and measure up against the top guys. Tom Brady is considered the top quarterback? That's fine - bring him on, so we can get a live look at, 'Hey, this is where we are as a defense right now. This is where we are as a secondary right now." Wide receiver Calvin Johnson missed practice on Monday and Tuesday due to a bruised knee and remains questionable to play on Thursday. He did say the knee has improved and hopes to suit up. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill is 'nicked up' according to coach Schwarz and could miss Thursday's game as well. That would mean more playing time for third-stringer Kellen Moore.


Carolina at Baltimore (-3, 42)

The Panthers have kept things rather vanilla in their first two preseason tilts but are planning on ramping things up a bit in Baltimore this week. Quarterback Cam Newton expects to see progress against the Ravens. “There are just some things we just need to iron out. But all in all, I think we've moved the ball and executed really well. We can do better and we will do better as this preseason progresses.” In their first year under the guidance of Mike Shula as offensive coordinator, it's not a surprise that the Panthers haven't been willing to tip their hand in exhibition play. Carolina will once again be without running back Jonathan Stewart while fullback Mike Tolbert is still recovering from a hamstring strain. With that in mind, the Panthers can ill afford to over-work DeAngelo Williams. Ted Ginn Jr. is expected to return kicks for the Panthers on Thursday night, getting another shot at the Ravens after facing them as a member of the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII. Head coach Ron Rivera is taking this game seriously, stating “This is a big week because this is really your trial run."

Like the Panthers, the Ravens are also looking for more production from their starting offense this week. Quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled to get in rhythm with his targets while the ground game has yet to gain much traction at all. With the starters expected to play the entire first half, and possibly even into the third quarter, they'll have ample opportunity to do so on Thursday night. Offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell wants to work new additions, Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley, into the offense this week. “Hopefully, we’ll get them a few more snaps." Caldwell said on Monday. He also told the Baltimore media that he wants to see improvement from his offense as a whole. “I think it’s very important just for us to play well, more so than anything else. Any unit that takes the field, we want them to go out there and be in sync, move the ball and put some points on the board. We’re looking forward to that.” Baltimore is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the preseason thanks to last week's fourth quarter comeback win against the Falcons.

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NFL Top 5: Long-shot receiving yardage leaders

A sensational 2012 season has propelled Detroit Lions superstar Calvin Johnson to the top of the prop list for most receiving yards in 2013. Johnson, however, may be hard-pressed to repeat last year's exploits after racking up close to 2,000 yards.

Here are five receivers with an outside chance of topping Johnson and the rest of the NFL's pass-catching fraternity (odds courtesy CarbonSports.ag):

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (+1,800)

Jones had a productive 2012 campaign, finishing with nearly 1,200 receiving yards despite ranking outside the 20 in targets among wide receivers. With Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense looking to build on a strong offensive showing and safety valve tight end Tony Gonzalez admittedly a step slower in what will be his final season, expect more targets - and yards - for the still-improving Jones.

Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (+1,800)

Welker goes from one future Hall of Fame quarterback to another, leaving Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to join Peyton Manning and the suddenly stacked Denver Broncos. Manning remains a top pivot even in his late-30s, and having Welker in the slot will allow him to opt for shorter passes that should spare his arm some wear and tear - bolstering Welker's stats in the process.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (+3,000)

With a forgettable season behind him (798 yards, his lowest total since 2004), Fitzgerald enters 2013 with a new quarterback in Carson Palmer and not much competition from the rest of the Cardinals' receiving corps. Fitzgerald remains one of the most athletic wideouts in the league, and at just 29 years old still has several productive seasons ahead of him.

Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (+5,000)

With No. 1 wideout Michael Crabtree expected to miss the entire season, the burden of leading the San Francisco receiving corps falls on the shoulders of the 32-year-old Boldin. The struggles quarterback Colin Kaepernick has had establishing chemistry with tight end Vernon Davis, coupled with a major lack of viable options behind Boldin, could mean a big year for the long-time Baltimore Ravens star.

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (+6,500)

A high-ankle sprain hampered Brown through the second half of last season, but the fourth-year pro is healthy and entrenched as Ben Roethlisberger's go-to guy. With former top wideout Mike Wallace in Miami, tight end Heath Miller still recovering from an ACL injury and the Pittsburgh running game in shambles to enter the season, Brown should see a fair number of targets.

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NFC North preview: Packers too much for division foes?


Chicago Bears (2012: 10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +350
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Bears: Chicago deserved to make the playoffs last season. They finished with a 10-6 record, and they ranked higher than seven teams that made the playoffs in my power ratings. RB Matt Forte is solid, and the Bears’ defense returned to form last year. That combination will win games for Chicago this season, and if their offensive line comes together, the Bears should earn a playoff spot in 2013.

Why not to bet the Bears: As mentioned above, the offensive line is key to Chicago’s success. The unit still has glaring needs, and it’s been that way for the last few years. The Bears’ offensive line needs stability to keep QB Jay Cutler upright. As with most quarterbacks in the NFL, time is of the essence. And it’s extremely critical for the slow-footed Cutler. The passing game suffered because of the line, and unless they improve, throwing downfield and winning games will be an issue once again.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Detroit Lions (2012: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +550
Season win total: 8.0

Why to bet the Lions: Detroit has a positive outlook for 2013 because they actually played more like .500 team last season. The Lions were only out-scored by just over 3 points per game relative to their opponents’ performances. QB Matthew Stafford has already proven he can play at a high level when healthy, and WR Calvin Johnson is one of the game’s best.

Why not to bet the Lions: The Lions’ defense allowed too many points per game (27.3) last season and that put too much pressure on the offense to out-score teams every week. Detroit needs significant defensive improvement to be a winning team. The offensive line was in shambles in 2012, and concern is still there heading into 2013.

Season win total pick: Under 8.0


Green Bay Packers (2012: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: -145
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the Packers: Green Bay is certainly a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2013. The Packers will once again be a formidable opponent for every team, especially with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The Packers have won 10 games or more in four consecutive seasons and in five of the last six seasons overall.

Why not to bet the Packers: The Packers struggled early last season; they were just 2-3 after five games. Green Bay has shown a pattern of September sluggishness; the Packers have started with a 2-2 record or worse in four of the last five seasons. The slow starts have cost them to miss the playoffs just once (2008), but they cannot keep relying on getting hot down the stretch each and every year. That is especially true this season as they play my 8th toughest schedule.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


Minnesota Vikings (2012: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +700
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Vikings: RB Adrian Peterson had a monster 2012 for Minnesota. Without him, the Vikings would have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Vikings ranked #2 in rushing the ball, and as long as AP stays on the field, Minnesota can be competitive and win ballgames.

Why not to bet the Vikings: Minnesota and QB Christian Ponder ranked No. 31 in passing the football. The Vikings’ defense was mediocre at best overall, but terrible in defending the pass. They were also fortunate as half of their wins (5 of 10) came by 7 points or less while their six losses came by 11.8 points per game. Look for a major regression from the Vikings in 2013, especially since they play in a tough division. Minnesota will be a good team to play-against, especially when they are laying points.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/19/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
08/18/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
08/17/13 7-*4-*1 63.64% +*1300 Detail
08/16/13 7-*1-*0 87.50% +*2950 Detail
08/15/13 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
08/11/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/10/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/09/13 7-*9-*0 43.75% -*1450 Detail
08/08/13 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*300 Detail
08/04/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 37-*28-*1 56.92% +3100


Thursday, August 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 7:30 PM ET New England +2.5 500 POD # 3

Detroit - Over 46 500 POD # 4


Carolina - 8:00 PM ET Carolina +3 500 POD # 1

Baltimore - Under 42 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Pro Football Trend Report

NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) at DETROIT (1 - 1) - 8/22/2013, 7:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that
apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons

DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons

0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CAROLINA (1 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 8/22/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.

CAROLINA is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.


Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

SEATTLE (2 - 0) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1) - 8/23/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.

SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games since 1993.

SEATTLE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road lined games since 1993.

SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


CHICAGO (1 - 1) at OAKLAND (1 - 1) - 8/23/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


BUFFALO (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (2 - 0) - 8/24/2013, 4:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NY JETS (1 - 1) at NY GIANTS (1 - 1) - 8/24/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.

NY JETS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1993.

NY GIANTS are 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.

NY GIANTS are 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

NY GIANTS is 1-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

NY GIANTS is 1-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CLEVELAND (2 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) - 8/24/2013, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 8/24/2013, 7:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 2) - 8/24/2013,
7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

KANSAS CITY is 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 28-54 ATS (-31.4 Units) in all games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 28-54 ATS (-31.4 Units) in all lined games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) as an underdog since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road lined games since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1993.

KANSAS CITY is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 8/24/2013,
7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


ATLANTA (0 - 2) at TENNESSEE (0 - 2) - 8/24/2013, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ST LOUIS (0 - 2) at DENVER (1 - 1) - 8/24/2013, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


CINCINNATI (2 - 0) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 8/24/2013, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


SAN DIEGO (0 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 8/24/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 0) - 8/25/2013, 4:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games since 1993.

NEW ORLEANS is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road lined games since 1993.

NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in
non-conference games since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History

HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MINNESOTA (0 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) - 8/25/2013, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Betting Notes

August 23, 2013


Preseason Trends

-- Home teams went 13-3 in Week 2

-- Favorites went 13-3 straight up and 11-5 against the spread in Week 2. The Ravens and Bears were the only two teams that failed to cover the point-spread in their victories

-- After watching the ‘over’ go 12-5 in the first 17 preseason games, the ‘under’ went 8-7-1 in Week 2

-- Prior to last night, 10 teams were unbeaten (2-0) and nine are winless (0-2) in the preseason

-- Seattle and Baltimore have both scored 71 points in their first two games, while Jacksonville (16) and Green Bay (19) have struggled offensively

-- Arizona has been the best defensive team so far, allowing seven points in two games. Tampa Bay (69), Jacksonville (64) and San Diego (64) have all struggled on the defensive side.

-- Rookie coaches have gone 8-6 in the preseason

-- Thursday’s action watched both games go ‘over’ the total. The home and road teams went 1-1 and the favorites and underdogs split as well both SU and ATS.

Seattle at Green Bay (CBS, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Preseason Notes

Seattle

Week 1 – Seattle 31 at San Diego 10
The Seahawks led 7-3 at halftime before outscoring the Chargers 24-7 in the second-half. Backup QBs Tarvaris Jackson and Brady Quinn passed for 187 yards and three touchdowns.

Week 2 – Seattle 40 vs. Denver 10 (Over 42)
The Seahawks led 33- 7 at halftime with the help of two touchdowns from their defense and special teams. QB Russell Wilson connected on 67 percent (8-of-12) of his passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns.

Green Bay

Week 1 - Green Bay 0 vs. Arizona 17
The Packers starting offensive unit had an early opportunity to score in the first quarter but turned the ball over on downs inside the Cardinals five-yard-line. Arizona led 14-0 at the break.

Week 2 – Green Bay 19 at St. Louis 7
The Packers led 9-0 at halftime and built a 19-0 lead in the fourth quarter before the Rams scored a late touchdown. QB Aaron Rodgers was 10-of-12 for 134 yards.

QB Rotations

Seattle – Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Brady Quinn

Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, Vince Young, B.J. Coleman (Rookie – Chattanooga)

Coaching Notes (Overall Records)

Pete Carroll - 9-5
Carroll started 1-3 both SU and ATS in preseason games but has gone 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in his last 10 games.

Mike McCarthy - 15-15
Total players noticed that McCarthy watched the ‘over’ go 20-8 (71%) in his first seven preseason slates but the ‘under’ is 2-0 this August and currently on a 5-1 (86%) run.

Dress Rehearsal - Week 3 Records (2010-2012)

Seattle - (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, Over 2-1)
2012 - Seattle 44 at Kansas City 14 (Over 40)
2011 – Seattle 20 at Denver 23 (Over 36.5)
2010 – Seattle 13 at Minnesota 24 (Under 39)

Green Bay (3-0, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 Over)
2012 - Green Bay 27 at Cincinnati 13 (Under 43)
2011 – Green Bay 24 at Indianapolis 21 (Over 40)
2010 – Green Bay 59 vs. Indianapolis 24 (Over 44.5)

Chicago at Oakland (10:00 p.m. ET)

Chicago

Week 1 – Chicago 17 Carolina 24
The Bears and Panthers both scored defensive touchdowns via interceptions. Chicago passed for 277 yards but was intercepted twice.

Week 2 – Chicago 33 vs. San Diego 28
The Chargers trailed the Bears 20-7 at halftime. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst helped the Bolts outscore Chicago 21-13 with two touchdown passes.

Oakland

Week 1 – Oakland 19 vs. Dallas 17 (Over 35.5)
The Raiders trailed 10-6 after two quarters but rallied in the second-half with 13 points, including a game-winning field goal.

Week 2 – Oakland 20 at New Orleans 28 (Over 42.5)
The Raiders trailed 23-7 at halftime before outscoring the Saints 13-5 in the final two quarters. Drew Brees diced up Oakland for 202 yards on 14-of-18 attempts.

QB Rotations

Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Trent Edwards, Jordan Palmer
Starters are expected to play at least the first-half for the Bears.

Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Matt McGloin (Rookie – Penn State), Tyler Wilson (Rookie, Arkansas)
Starters are expected to play the first-half and possibly into the second-half. The Raiders could use all four quarterbacks against the Bears.

Coaching Notes (Overall Records)

Marc Trestman 1-1 (0-2 ATS)
The seven rookie coaches in the NFL have gone 8-6 in the preseason, which includes Trestman’s ledger. The ‘over’ has cashed in both of his first two games.

Dennis Allen 2-4
Allen is 0-3 in his first three preseason games on the road.

Dress Rehearsal - Week 3 Records (2010-2012)

Chicago - (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, Under 3-0)
2012 – Chicago 20 at N.Y. Giants 17 (Under 41)
2011 – Chicago 13 at Tennessee 14 (Under 35.5)
2010 – Chicago 9 vs. Arizona 14 (Under 38)

Oakland - (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, Over 3-0)
2012 - Oakland 31 vs. Detroit 20 (Over 42)
2011 – Oakland 20 vs. New Orleans 40 (Over 38)
2010 – Oakland 28 vs. San Francisco 24 (Over 37.5)