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**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2013, 02:15 AM

2013 NFL Win Total Best Bets

August 1, 2013

Last year, I was able to produce a 4-1 (80%) record in my NFL Win Total predictions but I’ll admit that I was fortunate to catch a few breaks at the end of the season.

2012 Selections

WIN - Pittsburgh Steelers - Under 10 (-120)

Notes – The Steelers finished 8-8, which included a dreadful 2-5 close to the season. Also, Pittsburgh lost five of its games by three points and no loss was worse than 12 points, which occurred in Week 1 at Denver (remember the pick six?)

WIN - Chicago Bears – Over 9 (-130)

Notes – This ticket was a roller coaster as Chicago started the season 7-1. The Bears followed that run with a 1-5 slump and fortunately won their last two games of the season on the road to finish 10-6.

WIN - Atlanta Falcons – Over 9 (-140)

Notes – I guess there was a reason the books made you lay 5/7 (Bet $140 to win $100) on this selection last year because it was popular and an easy winner too. The Falcons started the season 8-0 and eclipsed 10 wins by Thanksgiving.

WIN - St. Louis Rams – Over 6 (-120)

Notes – Definitely an ugly win here as the Rams finished 7-8-1. Even though the 49ers and Seahawks get all the attention in the NFC West, St. Louis went 4-1-1 in the division last season.

LOSS - San Diego Chargers – Over 9 (+100)

Notes – My lone loser was San Diego, and despite a 3-1 start to the season, this club folded after it suffered three straight losses to the Saints, Broncos and Browns, which all featured collapses by the Bolts.

If you played one-unit ($100) on the above selections, you would’ve profited $300.

Despite my lean to ‘over’ tickets last season, I normally tend to take ‘under’ selections and that’s my focus in 2013.

Here are my top three Win Total selections for 2013 season.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Under 5 (+110)

The Jaguars have a combined seven wins the previous two seasons, which includes a 2-14 record in 2012, and I just don’t see this team improving by more than three wins in 2013. The Jaguars may not be favored in any game this season, plus they have a new rookie head coach in Gus Bradley.

Looking at the Jacksonville schedule, I believe they have eight automatic losses – at Seattle, at Denver, at Houston, at Indianapolis, at St Louis and at home vs. Colts, Texans, and the 49ers.

I only see three winnable games at most, which are road games at Oakland and Arizona and Buffalo at home.
When you factor in the eight losses, the Jaguars would have to go 6-2 in their other eight games to beat me and I don’t see that happening. It will be another tough year for the young Jaguars.

Buffalo Bills - Under 6.5 (-130)

Buffalo has not had a winning season since 2004, when it went 9-7. Since then, the team hasn’t been better than 7-9 and the last four years have seen three 6-10 records and a 4-12 ledger. Similar to the Jaguars, they have a new head coach in Doug Marrone from Syracuse. Also similar to Jacksonville, they will continue having problems at quarterback. Kevin Kolb is coming over from Arizona and they have a rookie behind him in E.J. Manual who they drafted out of Florida State.

The Bills have just six wins versus the AFC East over the last five seasons. Buffalo has tough games outside of their division in Carolina, Baltimore, Cincinnati, at New Orleans, at Pittsburgh, Atlanta and at Tampa Bay.

When you add in four tough games vs. division rivals New England and Miami, I believe the Bills are in for a long season and I can’t see them winning seven or more games in 2013.

New York Jets – Under 6.5 (-135)

The infamous duo of head coach Rex Ryan and quarterback Mark Sanchez will begin the fifth season together and most pundits, including myself, believe it will be the last. The New York Jets franchise had their problems the last two seasons, going 8-8 and 6-10 after reaching the AFC Championship the two prior seasons (2009, 2010).

It will not be long before the Jets fans are calling for Sanchez, if he’s the starting quarterback, and coach Ryan’s heads. Waiting in the wings at quarterback is rookie Geno Smith from West Virginia, who has a lot of work to do to become an average signal caller at this level.

The Jets schedule plays out with difficult non-division road contests at Atlanta, Cincinnati, Baltimore and Carolina which I don’t see them winning any one of those. Plus I don’t see them winning division road games against the Dolphins or Patriots either, which brings their loss tally to six.

There are a few games that look like possible wins – home contests against Buffalo, Oakland and Cleveland. On the road, they might have chances at Tennessee and Buffalo. However, backing a team that’s gone 5-11 as a visitor the last two seasons isn’t a sound investment.

The Jets won six games last season and the best case I see for this dysfunctional team is five wins come 2013.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2013, 02:19 AM

Four NFL coaches who need to win this preseason

Handicapping NFL coaches has become a popular practice for preseason bettors, picking out guys like Mike Shanahan (44-34-2 ATS in the preseason) and Andy Reid (25-28-3 ATS), who are notorious for their interest – or lack thereof – during the summer schedule.

However, Shanahan finished the preseason 2-2 against the spread last summer – improving to 7-5 ATS during the preseason in his tenure with the Redskins – and Reid led the Philadelphia Eagles to a 3-1 ATS mark and is actually 6-2 ATS the past two preseasons.

While weighing a head coach’s preseason success is fine, perhaps a more valuable way to look at NFL coaches is just how bad they need to win in 2013 – preseason or not. Putting together a winning record in the warm-ups can cool a coach’s seat and appease a nervous fanbase, easing the pressure heading into Week 1.

Here are four coaches who need to win during the preseason:

Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions

Schwartz just so happens to be one of the better preseason plays, posting a 12-4 SU and 11-4 ATS mark since 2009, so turning up the intensity during the exhibition slate shouldn’t be too much of a stretch. Schwartz is under the microscope in the Motor City after Detroit suffered a serious regression in 2012, going 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS, after posting 10 wins in 2011. A poor start – preseason or regular season – could spark the fire under Schwartz’s seat.

Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys

Jerry Jones has done just about everything but ax his head coach, taking the offensive playbook from Garrett and handing it to new coordinator Bill Callahan. Dallas hasn’t been a great preseason bet in recent years, boasting a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS record during Garrett’s time as head coach. Cowboys fans shouldn’t expect wins this preseason. Dallas is working in two new coordinators, switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3 Cover 2 and has even introduced a Pistol look to the offense.

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta should be more concerned about winning games at the end of the year – after numerous postseason flops – but the Falcons’ fan base is pissed after last season and has had a bad taste in its mouth since blowing a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship. Smith can provide a bit of mouthwash with a solid preseason. Atlanta has been horrid in tuneup tilts the past two years, with a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS count, while Smith is 7-13 SU and 8-10-2 ATS during his preseason career.

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Belichick is in no danger of being fired and spends about as much time worrying about the preseason scoreboard as he does picking out his sideline outfit every Sunday. However, after the summer the Patriots had – losing Welker and Woodhead, Gronkowski’s surgeries, Hernandez’s murder arrest – New England football fans need something to cheer for. Belichick was 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS last summer and boasts an 8-12 SU and 6-13-1 ATS record over the past five preseasons.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2013, 02:21 AM

Report: Tony Romo won't play for Cowboys on Sunday

The Dallas Cowboys are preparing to open the preseason minus the services of quarterback Tony Romo.

Multiple sources told Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com on Friday that Romo won't play in Sunday's Hall of Fame Game against the Miami Dolphins.

Romo hasn't missed a practice during training camp after surgery in April to remove a cyst from his back. The Cowboys starter expressed hope Monday in suiting up against the Dolphins, but said he'd go along with whatever coach Jason Garrett decided.

It's no surprise the Cowboys would take its time dipping Romo into action. The Cowboys have five preseason games this summer, so there's plenty of chances for snaps. The Cowboys plays the Oakland Raiders in their second preseason game Aug. 9. It's a good bet we'll get our first taste of Tony next Friday.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2013, 02:22 AM

Top 5 NFL Trends

MIA
DAL Under is 17-4 in Dolphins last 21 games on fieldturf.

MIA
DAL Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games on fieldturf.

MIA
DAL Under is 22-8-1 in Dolphins last 31 games overall.

MIA
DAL Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

MIA
DAL Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

**wayne1218** · 08-03-2013, 11:11 AM

Thanks bum!

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2013, 10:31 AM

Your welcome Wayne.....

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2013, 10:35 AM

NFL betting: Hall of Fame game teams in Week 1

The NFL's annual Hall of Fame Game kicks off the preseason with the Miami Dolphins facing the Dallas Cowboys from Canton, Ohio Sunday.

But how do the Hall of Fame Game participants fare in Week 1 of the NFL's regular season? Does the extra exhibition game have any effect for bettor or worse?

We looked at the numbers and noticed a glaring trend over the last five seasons that included the Hall of Fame game. (There was no game in 2011 due to the lockout.)

Since 2007, the 10 teams that participated in the game are just 2-8 SU (straight up) in their Week 1 games.

The combined ATS (against the spread) record is 4-6 ATS and the over/under record is 4-6.

Since 1999, the Cowboys and Dolphins have played a pair of HOF Games apiece. Dallas (2010, 1999) is 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U in their two Week 1 games.

Miami (2005, 2001) is 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS and 2-0 O/U in their Week 1 games after playing the extra preseason game.

The Cowboys ring in their regular season campaign against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. The Cowboys are currently 2.5-point home faves with a total of 49.

The Dolphins are back in Ohio to face the Cleveland Browns in their regular season opener. The Fish are currently 1.5-point road faves and the total is 39.5.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2013, 10:36 AM

Hall of Fame Game betting preview: Dolphins vs. Cowboys

Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, 33)

Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises clash in Canton, Ohio for the NFL’s Hall of Fame weekend. The Dolphins are aiming for an improvement in the AFC East, capitalizing on what could be a weak year for the division. The Cowboys hope coaching changes on offense and defense can maximize the team’s potential and get Dallas back to the playoffs in 2013.

Odds

Sportsbooks opened the Cowboys as big as 1.5-point favorites for this neutral-site game but action on the Dolphins has pushed the spread all the way to Dallas +2.5. The total opened at as high as 34.5 and has been bet down to 33 points heading into the weekend.

Hall of Fame Game trends

The New Orleans Saints beat the Arizona Cardinals 17-10 as 3-point favorites in the 2012 Hall of Fame Game. Favorites are 9-6 SU and 7-6-2 SU ATS since 1996 with those games going 8-7 over/under. Four of the last six Hall of Fame Games have played under the total, with the 2011 HoF Game cancelled due to the NFL lockout.

Dallas is 1-3 SU all-time in the Hall of Fame Game, with a 2-0 ATS record and 1-1 O/U mark with spreads available. Miami boasts a 0-3 SU mark all-time in the HoF Game, going 0-1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U with odds available. These teams met in Week 4 of the 2012 preseason, with the Cowboys winning 30-13 as 2.5-point home favorites. Dallas and Miami have met eight times in the regular season since 1987, with the teams splitting those meetings 4-4 SU and ATS and going 2-6 over/under.

Capping the QBs

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo will not play in Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game, still recovering from having surgery to remove a cyst on his back this summer. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett said that even if Romo was suiting up, he would only see one or two series and would be limited in pass attempts.

The other reason Romo is sitting out is the shaky shape of the Dallas offensive line. The Cowboys protection is still a work in progress and hasn’t looked sharp in camp. That could mean a long night for backups Kyle Orton, Nick Stephens and Alex Tanney. Orton has digressed as Dallas’ second stringer and Stephens is fighting off Tanney, who could be a surprise star this preseason. He’s freakishly athletic and has great arm strength and accuracy.

Miami will give No. 1 Ryan Tannehill some work during Sunday’s game but head coach Joe Philbin is tight lipped about how many snaps his second-year passer will take. He passed for 103.5 yards on 19.5 attempts per game in the preseason last year.

“We’re going to evaluate the practice tape and then we’re going to make a decision in regard to playing time tomorrow as to who’s going to be getting the majority of the snaps and the guidelines,” Philbin told the Palm Beach Post. “We’ll have a guideline of ‘X’ amount of snaps.”

The Dolphins have Matt Moore and Pat Devlin behind Tannehill. Moore was the Fins No. 1 QB in 2011, putting up 2,497 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in 12 games, going 6-6 SU in those contests. He’s regarded as one of the best backups in the NFL heading into 2013. Devlin has impressed this summer and has shown the ability to make plays with his legs, which could come in handy with Miami’s offensive line missing some key cogs.

Dallas notes

- Romo isn’t the only Cowboys starter sitting out Sunday’s exhibition kickoff. According to reports out of Dallas, numerous first stringers will pass on Canton. One of those starters expected to be on the field is WR Dez Bryant, who returned to practice this week after sitting out with a sore hip. Bryant, who reeled in 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns, is primed for a breakout season in 2013.

- Dallas is working in a new offensive coordinator in Bill Callahan and a new defensive coordinator in Monte Kiffin. Callahan is throwing some wrinkles into the offensive playbook, copying what the New England Patriots have done with their tight end sets. He’s also flirted with a pistol offense to jumpstart the running game behind RB DeMarco Murray, who when healthy can break the back of a defense. The stop unit is switching up from the 3-4 to the 4-3 with Cover 2 schemes. Many players, like DeMarcus Ware moving from LB to DE, are switching positions. Dallas takes the new defense for a test drive Sunday night.

Miami notes

- Miami was 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason last year, focusing more on adjusting to Philbin’s new sets and getting Tannehill some time under center. This time around, the Dolphins are out to win some exhibition games and show they can contend in the AFC East. Philbin’s main focus this summer is playing with speed, which should be easy with some new additions to the WR corps. Miami brought in WRs Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson as well as TE Dustin Keller. Wallace and fellow receiver Brian Hartline hope to play Sunday after returning from injuries this week.

- The Dolphins running game has no face with Reggie Bush leaving for Detroit. Running backs Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are expected to get the bulk of the carries this season, but fellow rushers Mike Gillislee and Marcus Thigpen will share the load Sunday. The rushing attack could have a tough time gaining traction behind a thinning offensive line. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman told reporters he’ll likely roll out his best five-player combo, ignoring set positions on the o-line.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2013, 10:42 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Denver Broncos were 7-1 vs spread as home favorites last year. From '06-'11, they were 5-24-2.

-- Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Bills -31.

-- Since '03, Dolphins are 32-16-2 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

-- Under Mike Smith, Falcons are 23-10-2 vs spread in game where spread was 3 or less points.

-- Last four years Jeff Fisher coached, three in Tennessee, LY in St Louis, his team was either #1 or #2 in NFL in sacks all four years.

-- The last two years, Steelers were -13 and -10 in turnovers. The 7 years before that, they were a combined +31.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2013, 06:46 PM

Sunday, August 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami -3 500 POD # 2

Dallas - Under 33 500 POD # 1

**StarDust Bum** · 08-07-2013, 09:53 AM

Preseason QB Breakdown

August 6, 2013

When handicapping NFL Preseason action, I find the #1 aspect to examine is depth & GAME EXPERIENCE at the QB spot. I have found over the years the teams that have the deepest, most experienced QB depth fares well in preseason games. The key here is to locate solid, experienced 2nd and 3rd string QB's, who can likely exploit the 2nd and 3rd defensive units they will be facing.

2013 PRESEASON QB ROTATIONS

TEAM STARTER BACKUP 3RD STRING 4TH STRING

ARIZONA PALMER STANTON LINDLEY --

ATLANTA RYAN D. DAVIS RENFREE DOEGE

BALTIMORE FLACCO TAYLOR HANIE --

BUFFALO KOLB MANUEL TUEL --

CAROLINA NEWTON D. ANDERSON CLAUSEN C.
CAMERON

CHICAGO CUTLER J. MCCOWN BLANCHARD --

CINCINNATI DALTON J. JOHNSON SKELTON Z. ROBINSON

CLEVELAND WEEDEN J. CAMPBELL HOYER --

DALLAS ROMO ORTON N. STEPHENS --

DENVER P. MANNING OSWEILER DYSERT KATZ

DETROIT STAFFORD S. HILL K. MOORE T. LEWIS

GREEN BAY RODGERS HARRELL B. COLEMAN --

HOUSTON SCHAUB YATES KEENUM S. MCGEE

INDIANAPOLIS LUCK M. HASSELBECK HARNISH --

JACKSONVILLE GABBERT HENNE KAFKA M. SCOTT

KANSAS CITY A. SMITH DANIEL BRAY STANZI

MIAMI TANNEHILL M. MOORE DEVLIN --

MINNESOTA PONDER CASSEL BETHEL-THOMPSON --

NEW ENGLAND BRADY MALLETT TEBOW --

NEW ORLEANS BREES S. WALLACE L. MCCOWN R. GRIFFIN

NY GIANTS E. MANNING CARR NASSIB PAINTER

NY JETS SANCHEZ G. SMITH M. SIMMS MCELROY

OAKLAND FLYNN PRYOR T. WILSON MCGLOIN

PHILADELPHIA VICK FOLES BARKLEY DIXON

PITTSBURGH ROETHLISBERGER L. JONES GRADKOWSKI J. WILSON

SAN DIEGO RIVERS WHITEHURST SORENSEN --

SAN FRANCISCO KAEPERNICK MCCOY TOLZIEN B. DANIELS

SEATTLE R. WILSON QUINN T. JACKSON --

ST. LOUIS BRADFORD CLEMENS A. DAVIS --

TAMPA BAY FREEMAN ORLOVSKY GLENNON A. WEBER

TENNESSEE LOCKER FITZPATRICK R. SMITH ENDERLE

WASHINGTON GRIFFIN COUSINS GROSSMAN P. WHITE

Based on the QB depth charts by team listed above, I have identified the following teams as targets (either favorable or unfavorable) for the upcoming preseason:

Favorable (listed in alphabetical order):

ARIZONA: Palmer, Stanton, Lindley. There are many aspects to like about this 3 man QB rotation, most of which is the fact Carson Palmer is the new starter, and will thus likely see more series and plays than normal to get better acclimated to his new coaching staff, teammates and weapons. #2 Drew Stanton, in his 7th NFL season, joined ARI this offseason and has appeared in 12 career games, including extended action in 2010. 3rd stringer Ryan Lindley appeared in 6 games his rookie year, and although he struggled mightily last year with a ratio of 0/7, that in game experience should help when facing 2nd and 3rd stringers from the opponents defense.

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BALTIMORE: Flacco, Taylor, Hanie. Flacco, fresh off his new big dollar contract, doesn't figure to see extended preseason action, meaning more snaps for Tyrod Taylor and Caleb Hanie. T2 has seen limited regular season action outside last year's Wk17 matchup @ CIN where he played pretty well considering it was on the road versus a divisional rival that was heading to the playoffs. However, Taylor has played well (for the most part) in the last two preseason's, and is equally as dangerous with his legs as his arm. Caleb Hanie joined the Ravens this offseason from CHI, and has played in 10 regular season games over 6 years including extended action in 2011. The Ravens should have a significant advantage late in preseason games with Taylor's legs, and when Hanie faces 2nd & 3rd string defenders.

CAROLINA: Newton, D. Anderson, Clausen, C. Cameron. Obviously Cam Newton will not see a ton of preseason action, but the Panthers have 3 backups, 2 of which have played in the regular season, which should equal plus QB play late in these preseason games. Anderson enters his 3rd season as the CAR backup, and although he has not played much in the last two years, he started for CLE multiple seasons posting some impressive numbers, especially in 2007. Clausen enters his 4th season in the NFL, all with CAR, and has not played in the regular season since 2010, pre Cam Newton. He did not play well that season, a big reason CAR burned a first round pick on a QB for a 2nd straight season heading into 2011. That being said Clausen has talent, and should at worst offer neutral QB play versus 2nd and 3rd string defenses. Colby Cameron is in his first year after posting great numbers at Louisiana Tech last season.

CINCINNATI: Dalton, J. Johnson, Skelton, Z. Robinson. Like Flacco & Newton above do not expect to see an abundance of Andy Dalton snaps during the preseason as he is fresh off leading CIN to back to back playoff appearances. Josh Johnson, in his 5th season but 2nd with CIN, has appeared in 27 games during his career (all with TB), but has limited passing statistics only attempting 177 in those games. 2009 was the season he played most, before Josh Freeman took over. 3rd stringer Josh Skelton joins CIN this year after three years with ARI where he saw significant, extended action appearing in 20 games and attempting over 600 passes; he may be the most experienced 3rd string QB on any NFL depth chart (outside Rex Grossman), which is typically a massive edge in preseason handicapping. Last on the depth chart is Zac Robinson, who enters his 2nd season and has yet to take a snap. Depending on how much Robinson plays the QB spot could be a HUGE edge for the Bengals this preseason.

CLEVELAND: Weeden, J. Campbell, Hoyer. Although the starter with CLE, whoever that may be, would be ranked among the worst in the NFL, the depth at this spot should be an advantage for the Browns during the preseason. Last year's starter Brandon Weeden played pretty well overall considering he was a rookie and didn't have a ton of weapons around him. I expect Weeden to win the starter's job in 2013, and also see extended snaps this preseason to give him more experience. 2nd stringer Jason Campbell has been a starter in the NFL, playing in 77 games with a career QB Rating of a solid 82.7. 3rd stringer Brian Hoyer enters his 5th season, but just his first year with CLE after stints with NE & ARI. Although he has limited game experience he is widely regarded as one of the better backup QB's in the NFL, and should help boost his stock some facing 2nd and 3rd string defenses. I would not be surprised if in the next year or two Hoyer gets a deal similar to what Flynn landed.

NEW ORLEANS: Brees, Wallace, L. McCown, Griffin. We all know about Drew Brees, and expect HC Sean Payton to play him limited snaps in the preseason. That is precisely why they are currently carrying 4 QBs, and the 2nd stringer is the experienced Seneca Wallace. Wallace has played 9 seasons, with 2 clubs CLE & SEA. His most significant action came in 2008 with SEA, and overall in his career he has played in 62 games and attempted 750+ passes. With a career QB Rating of 81.3, and the ability to beat teams with his legs as well, look for Wallace to be a plus under center. 3rd stringer Luke McCown enters his 10th NFL season with his 5th different team. He has never appeared in more than 5 games in a season, and does not have extensive regular season experience; however, he has played in the NFL for 9 years, and appeared in many preseason games which will help him at least hold his own versus lower string defenses. 4th stringer Ryan Griffin is in his rookie season out of Tulane.

WASHINGTON: Griffin III, Cousins, Grossman, P. White. Don't expect many snaps taken by RGIII this preseason as he returns from his torn ACL suffered in last season's playoff loss to SEA. That being said the Skins are still in relatively good shape at the QB position, with 2nd year guy Kirk Cousins set to be the backup. Cousins filled in admirably for RGIII last season, playing in 3 games and posting a 101.6 QB Rating, obviously very solid. He should continue to flourish in HC Mike Shanahan's QB friendly system. 3rd stringer Rex Grossman enters his 11th season, and has seen extensive NFL action through his career. He was the starter for CHI in 2006, and for WAS in 2011. He did not take any snaps last season, but I feel very confident in his abilities versus 2nd and 3rd string defenders this preseason. Grossman could even be traded if other teams suffer a QB injury. Pat White is the 4th stringer has not completed a pass in the NFL, but has the legs to cause problems versus lower level defenders in 4th quarters during preseason action. There is no guarantee White even sees snaps under center, which if he didn't would only be an advantage to WAS.

Unfavorable (listed in alphabetical order):

ATLANTA: Ryan, D. Davis, Renfree, Doege. To put it bluntly, the Falcons are in a lot of trouble under center when Matt Ryan isn't taking the snaps. 2nd stringer Dominique Davis enters his 2nd season, 3rd stringer Sean Renfree & 4th stringer Seth Doege are rookies, and no QB outside Ryan has taken a snap in the NFL. Look for the ATL offense to really struggle this preseason, especially in Gms1, 2 & 4 when Ryan will not be taking a bulk of the snaps.

DENVER: P. Manning, Osweiler, Dysert, Katz. The Broncos QB depth chart is very similar to that of ATL. Outside MVP candidate Peyton Manning DEN has basically no NFL experience from any of their three backups. Brock Osweiler remains listed as the #2 - he enters his 2nd season and only attempted 4 passes during the 2012 regular season. 3rd stringer Zac Dysert was selected in the 7th round out of Miami, OH and enters his rookie season while 4th stringer Ryan Katz, out of San Diego State, enters his rookie season as well. Look for the Broncos to struggle with QB play once Peyton Manning exits - and also look for Peyton to take less snaps than most starters this preseason.

NY JETS: Sanchez, G. Smith, M. Simms, McElroy. One of the biggest QB controversies heading into the 2013 regular season is that of the NYJ - will Mark Sanchez hang onto his job, or will first round draft pick Geno Smith take over? That question will likely not be answered until early September, but for preseason action look for both to take about the same amount of snaps. Although Sanchez has the experience edge Smith brings more measurables to the table and may be the favorite to win the job - if not when the season starts as it progresses. With Simms and McElroy also in the rotation the entire group is filled with question marks as QB play appears to be a big issue for NYJ not only during the preseason but as the regular season commences.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2013, 01:16 PM

Preseason Coaching Trends

August 7, 2013

In addition to QB rotations, coaching trends are also a critical aspect of preseason handicapping. Why you may ask? The answer is some coaches take these games more serious than others – for some winning these games is believed to strengthen a team’s confidence, while others are more worried about getting through each game without injuries. Which coaches do well or poorly in the preseason? Here are Preseason records as researched by my buddy Jeff Loop, aka, “The Mayor of Indy”:

Head Coach Trends as measured by Total ATS record:

BEST/WORST ATS RECORDS

TEAM COACH ATS RECORD WIN % NOTES

DETROIT SCHWARTZ 10-5-1 66.7% 12-4 SU

PITTSBURGH TOMLIN 15-10 60% 19-6 SU

SEATTLE CARROLL 19-9-1 67.9% 8-4 ATS, 7-1 L2 YRS

WASHINGTON SHANAHAN 7-5 58.3% 49-23 SU LIFETIME

ATLANTA SMITH -- -- 1-8 SU L9; 2-7-1 ATS on road

MIAMI PHILBIN 0-5 0% --

Head Coach Trends as measured by SU record in Specific Weeks:

BEST SU RECORDS

TEAM COACH ATS RECORD WIN % SITUATION NOTES

CINCINNATI LEWIS 14-6 70% WEEKS 1 & 4 --

DETROIT SCHWARTZ 4-0 100% WEEK 4 --

GREEN BAY MCCARTHY 10-4 71.4% WEEKS 1 & 2 --

HOUSTON SCHAUB 10-4 71.4% WEEK 1 --

NEW ENGLAND BELICHICK 10-4 71.4% WEEKS 2 & 4 --

NY GIANTS COUGHLIN 12-6 66.7% WEEKS 2 & 4 --

NEW ORLEANS PAYTON 6-1 85.7% WEEK 3 --

PITTSBURGH TOMLIN 6-0 100% WEEK 4 --

ST. LOUIS FISHER 25-9 73.5% WEEKS 2 & 4 INCLUDES TEN AND STL

WASHINGTON SHANAHAN 25-8 75.8% WEEKS 1 & 4 INCLUDES DEN AND WSH

WORST SU RECORDS

TEAM COACH ATS RECORD WIN %
SITUATION

CINCINNATI LEWIS 2-8 20% WEEK 3

GREEN BAY MCCARTHY 4-10 28.6% WEEKS 1 & 4

NY GIANTS COUGHLIN 2-7 22.2% WEEK 3

NY JETS RYAN 0-4 0% WEEK 1

NEW ORLEANS PAYTON 1-6 14.3% WEEK 4

ST. LOUIS FISHER 4-11 26.7% WEEK 3

Over/Under Trends by Head Coach:

BEST OVER/UNDER RECORDS

TEAM COACH O/U RECORD WIN % NOTES

DETROIT SCHWARTZ 9-4-3 69.2% --

GREEN BAY MCCARTHY 20-8 71.4% Just 1-3 OVER in 2012

HOUSTON KUBIAK 20-8 71.4% --

NEW ENGLAND BELICHICK 45-27 62.5% Just 4-4 L2 yrs

NY JETS RYAN 9-6-1 60.0% Just 1-3 OVER in 2012

SEATTLE CARROLL 11-5 68.8% 8-4 with SEA

ST. LOUIS FISHER 17-7-1 70.8% includes TEN & STL; 3-1 OVER in 2012

BEST UNDER RECORDS

TEAM COACH O/U RECORD WIN % NOTES

BALTIMORE HARBAUGH, JOHN 11-7-1 61.1% Just 2-4-1 UNDER L7 gms

ATLANTA SMITH 12-8 60.0% Just 4-4 L2 yrs

PITTSBURGH TOMLIN 15-10 60.0% Just 2-6 UNDER L2 yrs

SAN FRANCISCO HARBAUGH, JIM 5-2-1 71.4% --

Check back in the coming weeks leading up to the season as we continue breaking down & analyzing the biggest, baddest, most critical metrics for handicapping the NFL Regular Season.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2013, 01:18 PM

Thursday Preseason Tips

August 8, 2013

Ravens at Buccaneers (-3, 35 ½) - 7:30 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: BAL (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), TB (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason meeting: First ever matchup in preseason

QB Rotations: BAL - Flacco, Taylor, Hanie
TB - Freeman, Orlovsky, Glennon, Weber

Coaches' Preseason Records: Harbaugh (13-7 SU, 12-8 ATS), Schiano (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Redskins at Titans (-2 ½, 35 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: WSH (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), TEN (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason meeting: Redskins beat Titans, 14-6 in 2007

QB Rotations: WSH - Cousins, Grossman, White
TEN - Locker, Fitzpatrick, R. Smith

Coaches' Preseason Records: Shanahan (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS), Munchak (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Key player out: Redskins' QB Robert Griffin III

Rams at Browns (-4, 35) - 8:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: STL (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), CLE (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Previous Preseason meeting: Rams beat Browns, 19-17 in 2010

QB Rotations: STL - Bradford, Clemens, Davis
CLE - Weeden, Campbell, Hoyer

Coaches' Preseason Records: Fisher (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), Chudzinski (first year)

Key player out: Browns' RB Trent Richardson

Bengals at Falcons (-2 ½, 37) - 8:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: CIN (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), ATL (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Previous Preseason meeting: Bengals beat Falcons, 24-19 in 2012

QB Rotations: CIN - Dalton, J. Johnson, Skelton, Z. Robinson
ATL - Ryan, D. Davis, Renfree, Doege

Coaches' Preseason Records: Lewis (20-21 SU, 20-20-1 ATS), Smith (7-13 SU, 9-10-1 ATS)

Key players out: Falcons' TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Julio Jones

Broncos at 49ers (-3, 35) - 9:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: DEN (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), SF (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason meeting: 49ers beat Broncos, 29-24 in 2012

QB Rotations: DEN - Manning, Osweiler, Dysert, Katz
SF - Kaepernick, McCoy, Tolzien, Daniels

Coaches' Preseason Records: Fox (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS), Harbaugh (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Key players out: 49ers' LB Patrick Willis and WR Michael Crabtree

Seahawks (-2 ½, 35 ½) at Chargers - 10:00 PM EST

2012 Preseason Records: SEA (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS), SD (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

Previous Preseason meeting: Seahawks beat Chargers, 24-17 in 2011

QB Rotations: SEA - Wilson, Quinn, Jackson
SD - Rivers, Whitehurst, Sorensen

Coaches' Preseason Records: Carroll (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS), McCoy (first year)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2013, 02:57 PM

Preseason Tidbits

August 8, 2013

Around the NFL, every team approaches the preseason differently. Some teams are working in an entire new coaching staff with new philosophies. Some teams have established quarterbacks while others have a competition among 2-3 players. Some just want to keep players healthy and don't show much of their offensive or defensive game plans. Knowing some of recent trends can help you find favorable matchups and get you off to a quick start before the regular season even kicks off. Enjoy our 'tidbits' for the NFL exhibition season.

-- Arizona Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight preseason games. They are under a new coaching regime. New head coach Bruce Arians is breaking in a new offense with a new quarterback, Carson Palmer. Arians was 3-1 ATS in the preseason as a member of Indy's coaching staff last year.

-- Buffalo Bills are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in the last preseason games. Head Coach Doug Marrone is in his first season as an NFL head coach. He has an all new coaching staff with new offensive wrinkles. Expect the Bills to be more competitive as they break in a new offense with a heated battle between Kevin Kolb & EJ Manuel at quarterback.

-- Carolina Panthers are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in the last 11 preseason road games. The Panthers haven't been strong on the road in preseason. They play at Philly on August 15 & at Baltimore on August 22.

-- Cincinnati Bengals are 1-6 ATS in the past seven preseason road games. Cincy will play its first preseason game on the road at Atlanta on August 8th and will be playing without top WR, AJ Green.

-- Denver Broncos are 1-5 ATS the past six preseason games as favorite. QB Manning won't see much action in the preseason, especially in the first couple of games. Expect a lot of uneven play from Brock Osweiler, Ryan Katz, and Zac Dysert splitting reps under center.

-- Detroit Lions are 9-2 SU & ATS the last 11 preseason games. Detroit has a proven backup QB in Shaun Hill and behind him Thaddeus Lewis has experience. This offense will stay strong the entire game with proven backup QB's. The Lions are also 7-3-1 OVER in the last 11 preseason games.

-- Green Bay Packers are 15-5 OVER the last 20 preseason games. Aaron Rodgers won't see a ton of plays, but there's a strong quarterback battle for the no. 2 spot between BJ Coleman and Graham Harrell. This offense has strong depth and we expect it to continue to put up points even with Rodgers on the bench.

-- Jacksonville Jaguars have played six straight preseason OVERs. Jacksonville has allowed 29.3 points per game over that stretch. New head coach Gus Bradley is a defensive specialist and will want to change that. The offense is still in rough shape with uncertainty at the QB position, so the Jags could be in for some low-scoring affairs in the preseason.

-- Kansas City Chiefs are 5-28-1 ATS in their last 34 preseason games. There is a new coaching staff but don't expect much of a change in their preseason woes. Head Coach Andy Reid never put a heavy emphasis on preseason in Philly as he went 9-13 ATS in his last 22 preseason games.

-- New England Patriots are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS their last six preseason games. New England hasn't put a lot of emphasis on preseason action under Bill Belichick. Tom Brady won't see many snaps and they'll opt to keep their top playmakers healthy. The Pats are also 45-27-1 OVER under Belichick in the preseason.

-- New York Giants UNDER is 8-2 their last 10 preseason games. The GMen have never been big on showing a lot of their starting offense in the preseason. Eli Manning won't see a ton of action and coaches will want to keep star WR's Cruz & Nicks healthy. Expect more low scoring games as they try to get their swagger back on defense as well.

-- New York Jets are 0-5 SU & ATS past 5 preseason games. Coaches are trying to determine if rookie QB Geno Smith is a better option than the embattled Mark Sanchez. Both Smith and Sanchez will see a good share of reps under center. And we don't expect stellar results from either.

-- Oakland Raiders are 2-8 SU & ATS past 10 preseason games. There isn't a ton of talent on this team and very little depth to speak of. QB Matt Flynn will try to hold off Terrelle Pryor and rookie Tyler Wilson. None of the three QB's are great and the receiving corps is very weak. It'll be tough to score and the Raiders' woes may continue this preseason.

-- Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their past seven preseason games. Pittsburgh has also won 11 straight preseason home games since 2007.

-- St. Louis Rams are 11-3 SU & ATS past 14 preseason games. St. Louis is the buzz-team of the summer. A lot is expected from this up & coming team and the excitement could spill over into another solid preseason.

-- Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is a strong 19-9-1 in preseason action (4-0 in 2012). He has a strong stable to QB's to work with as well. Tavaris Jackson and Brady Quinn compete to backup star sophomore Russell Wilson.

-- Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS past 11 preseason road games. Tampa Bay plays at New England on August 16th and at Miami on August 26th. The Bucs apparently aren't sold on Josh Freeman as the starting QB of the future, so expect rookie Mike Glennon to get a long look under center.

-- Washington Redskins Head Coach Mike Shanahan is a career 44-34-2 ATS and 50-30 OVER in preseason games. Star QB Robert Griffin III is not expected to take any reps in the preseason.

Announcement

The Bum's Preseason Best Bets & Pod's ! + QB Rotations

The Bum's Preseason Best Bets & Pod's ! + QB Rotations

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