The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets Thru March Madess !

[StarDust Bum]

Yep Kapt...Marquette struggling with the outside shot....and that zone defense can't be busted.......

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Elite Eight

March 30, 2013


The Final Four takes place next Saturday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, as two more spots need to be filled out on the dance card. Four big-time programs look to advance to the Peach State, as Florida takes on Michigan, while Duke battles Louisville. We'll begin in the Lone Star State with two schools that have gotten together for bowl games, but not tournament showdowns.

South Regional

(3) Florida vs. (4) Michigan - 2:20 PM EST - CBS

Both the Gators and Wolverines had to rally from double-digit deficits on Friday night to advance to the Elite Eight, but both squads put together their comebacks in different ways. Florida erased an early 15-4 deficit to upstart Florida Gulf Coast en route to a 62-50 victory, but the Gators didn't cash as 14-point favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan pulled off a bit more dramatic rally to reach the round of eight.

Kansas sat two minutes away from the regional final, but the Jayhawks squandered a 10-point lead late in regulation as Trey Burke's three-pointer in the final seconds forced overtime. The Wolverines responded in the extra session by capping off a 33-17 run in a 12-minute span to upend the Jayhawks, 87-85 to cash as 1 ½-point underdogs. Burke put the Wolverines on his back by scoring 13 points in a 5 ½-minute stretch, giving Michigan its first Elite Eight appearance since 1994.

The Gators covered in their first two tournament games in victories over Northwestern State and Minnesota, while Billy Donovan's team failed to knock down some key free throws in the final seconds in the non-cover against Florida Gulf Coast. Florida fell to 6-11 ATS the last 17 games, but eight of those ATS defeats came as 'chalk' of 10 points or more. As a favorite of single-digits, the Gators own a mediocre 3-4 ATS record, including outright losses away from Gainesville against Kentucky, Missouri, and Arizona.

Michigan closed the regular season with a 1-9 ATS record in the final 10 games, but John Beilein's club has cashed four of five postseason contests (including the Big 10 tournament). The Wolverines are just 2-2 ATS this season when receiving points, as the Maize and Blue did lose outright at Indiana and Ohio State as underdogs. Michigan has trended towards the 'over' in the 'dog role, cashing three times in four opportunities.

Florida is listed at 2 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 131.

Midwest Regional

(1) Louisville vs. (2) Duke - 5:05 PM EST - CBS

The only top-seed left in the tournament is Louisville, who plays with revenge after losing to Duke in the Bahamas back in November. The Cardinals won their 13th straight game following Friday's 77-69 Sweet 16 triumph over Oregon, but Louisville couldn't close for backers as 11-point favorites. Rick Pitino's squad led by 14 points at the half, as the Ducks grabbed a backdoor cover with a layup in the final 30 seconds.

Seth Curry lifted Duke's offense to a Sweet 16 triumph over Michigan State on Friday, 71-61 as two-point favorites. Curry scored a game-high 29 points, including six three-pointers, while the Blue Devils knocked down 24-of-26 free throws to ice the victory. The game barely finished 'under' the total of 132 ½, in spite of Duke hitting all eight free throws in the final two minutes.

The Blue Devils held off the Cardinals as 1-point underdogs at the Battle 4 Atlantis during Thanksgiving weekend, 76-71. Duke shot just 5-of-20 from three-point range, including a 2-of-9 effort from Curry. Louisville rallied from an eight-point deficit to make things interesting, but Quinn Cook scored the final eight points for Duke to hand the Cardinals their first loss of the season.

Since the start of February, Mike Kryzyewski's team has covered consecutive games four times. However, the Blue Devils were unable to cash in the third opportunity, including outright losses to Virginia and Maryland. Duke enters this situation off back-to-back ATS wins over Creighton and Michigan State.

During this 13-game hot streak, the Cardinals have drilled the 'over' in eight consecutive contests, while posting a 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 victories. This is the third time the Cardinals are playing with revenge this season, as the Big East champions won and covered against Syracuse and Notre Dame after losing to those teams earlier in the campaign.

Louisville is listed as 3 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 137.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Odds to win next fall's college football championship......

3-1-- Alabama-- Why not? They've won the last two years.

8-1-- Oregon-- Can the new coach maintain their momentum?

10-1-- LSU-- If Les Miles plays Scrabble, he probably tries to use words that don't exist, just to see if he can get away with it.

10-1-- Ohio State-- Urban Meyer's daughter plays volleyball at that noted sports factory, Florida Gulf Coast.

14-1-- Texas A&M-- Kind of high for a team with a sophomore QB-- oh wait, forget I said that (it was a JOKE!!!!).

15-1-- Florida and Florida State. Four SEC teams in the top seven.


*****

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.......

13) Steve Alford to UCLA? Wow. He gets $2.6M a year for seven years and his son Bryce, who scored 37 ppg in high school this year, gets an upgrade from playing in the Pit to Pauley Pavilion, while still playing for his dad. So UCLA wins the press conference, hiring a famous name to replace the fired Ben Howland, who made it to three Final Fours in ten years.

12) Like we said, Howland made it to three Final Fours in Westwood; he won the Pac-12 regular season this year, was 25-10 and he got canned. There are significant expectations involved with coaching the Bruins. Alford seems to be a good coach but his record in the NCAAs is 5-7. Uh-oh.

11) Alford is hoping his assistant coach Craig Neal replaces him with the Lobos, since New Mexico has everyone back next year and figures to win the Mountain West again. New Mexico gets tremendous crowd support and they recruit well, so its a good job that also has high expectations.

10) Alford recently signed a 10-year extension at New Mexico, but these days, contracts don't mean much-- the extension was going to start Monday, but instead, New Mexico is looking for its new coach, and Alford is house shopping and then recruiting. Coaching is an interesting profession.

9) Wichita State has six players who played JC basketball; all three of their assistant coaches also once worked at junior colleges.

8) Not sure why, but it bothers me when TV announcers call Syracuse "the 'cuse". So many of ESPN's play-by-play guys went to Syracuse, can't help but think they get preferential treatment from the media. Lets see how the media deals with it when they go on probation soon, and they are going to go on probation, if half of what is being written is true.

7) All minor league baseball players have to wear the two-flap batting helmets now, but major leaguers don't have to.

6) One of these years, would be nice if A's didn't open the season with the Mariners, so they didn't have to see Felix Hernandez in the opener. In 2012, they played Seattle over in Japan, so they had to face Hernandez in both the first and third games. Not the best planning there.

5) It never ends: a horse ran at Golden Gate Saturday: Trust in Tebow.

4) Kevin Kolb gets $13M for two years from Buffalo; what has this guy done to keep getting paid so much money?

3) Syracuse 55, Marquette 39-- Eagles shot 22.6% from floor. Gardner was 6-9, rest of team was a miserable 6-44. Marquette played scared.

2) Wichita State 70, Ohio State 66-- Shockers led 53-33 with 11:30 left in game, hung on for dear life to become first #9 seed to make Final Four in 64-team era of tournament. Penn was a #9 seed that made it back in 1979.

1) Its a cold world; weird seeing Johan Santana getting released in our 16-team fantasy baseball league, and knowing no one will pick him up.
Reply With Quote

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 31

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DUKE (30 - 5) vs. LOUISVILLE (32 - 5) - 3/31/2013, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 46-70 ATS (-31.0 Units) in March games since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
DUKE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
DUKE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN (29 - 7) vs. FLORIDA (29 - 7) - 3/31/2013, 4:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
FLORIDA is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
MICHIGAN is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
MICHIGAN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MICHIGAN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
MICHIGAN is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet

Sunday, March 31

NCAA Tournament, Elite Eight

Duke vs. Louisville, 2:10 ET CBS
Duke: 0-8 ATS off 3+ games allowing 55 points or less
Louisville: 15-3 ATS playing on a neutral court

Michigan vs. Florida, 4:55 ET CBS
Michigan: 7-1 ATS playing on a neutral court
Florida: 1-7 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 31

Sunday's games
Florida still hasn't won a game by less than 10 points this year, so if this is a tense struggle, their 0-6 record in single digit games cannot be a help. Gators are 2-0 vs Big Dozen teams, beating Wisconsin/Minnesota by 18, 14 points. Michigan was all but dead Friday, down 14 with 6:51 to play, 10 with 2:32 left, but pulled game out; four starters played 39+ minutes Friday-- a fifth played 35. Donovan is 3-2 in regional finals, but lost last two years, to Butler/Louisville; Gators are #28 in country in experience, Wolverines #342, big edge there. Florida hasn't been taxed yet, beating seeds #14-11-15 to get here. Michigan is #1 team in country protecting the ball; Beilein lost his only regional final to Louisville in OT in 2005. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six regional finals that didn't involve a #1 or #2 seed.

Since '85, Coach K is 11-1 in regional finals, 3-0 when he is a #2 seed vs a #1 (he also lost as a #1 vs a #2). Louisville-Duke last met in NCAAs in '86, when Cardinals won 72-69 in national title game; Duke (even) beat Louisville 76-71 on a neutral court Nov 24, when both teams had played previous two days, and game that Dieng sat out. Duke outscored Cards 23-9 on foul line, but made just 5-25 on arc. Louisville is 13-0 since loss in 5-OT's to Notre Dame, winning last eight games by 8+ points. Take a look at regional finals involving #1 vs #2 seeds: Since 2003, #2-seeds are 9-3 vs #1-seeds in regional finals, despite being underdog in nine of the 12 games. Duke is #4 in country at protecting ball, but their subs took only one shot Friday; they used four starters 36+ minutes.




NCAAB

Sunday, March 31

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Trend Report
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2:20 PM
MICHIGAN vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

5:05 PM
DUKE vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


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NCAAB

Sunday, March 31

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Michigan vs. Florida: What bettors need to know
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators (-2.5, 131)

Michigan is part of the Elite Eight for the first time in 19 years while Florida is part of the festivities for the third straight season when the two squads meet in Sunday’s South Regional final at Arlington, Texas. The third-seeded Gators are attempting to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2007, when they won the second of back-to-back national championships. The fourth-seeded Wolverines are still alive due to an epic comeback to beat Kansas in overtime.

Michigan trailed by 10 points with less than three minutes left in regulation against the Jayhawks before Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke caught fire, scoring eight points in the final 75 seconds and forcing overtime with a 28-foot 3-pointer. “We love coaching him because he’s got courage,” Wolverines coach John Beilein said afterward. Florida ousted tournament Cinderella Florida Gulf Coast with strong defensive play that included 20 turnovers. The next task is ending the streak of two straight losses in regional title games. “It’s so hard just a win a tournament game, never mind advance,” Gators coach Billy Donovan said.

TV: 12:20 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT FLORIDA (29-7): The Gators lack superstars and the rotation is only eight players deep but anyone can emerge as the key player during any given contest. Senior guard Mike Rosario had 15 points against Florida Gulf Coast and is 10-of-19 from 3-point range during the tournament, while junior forward Casey Prather excelled off the bench with 11 points against the Eagles. “We wanted to come out and play with energy and help our team win,” Prather said of Florida’s strong bench contributions. “I think we did a great job of doing it. We made up our mind that we didn’t want to leave.” Rosario and senior forward Erik Murphy each averages 12.6 points. Senior guard Kenny Boynton chips in 12 points per game, junior center Patric Young averages 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds and junior guard Scottie Wilbekin contributes 9.3 points and 4.9 assists.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (29-7): Freshman forward Mitch McGary has emerged as a star in the NCAA Tournament by averaging 19.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. McGary scored a season-high 25 points and matched a season best with 14 rebounds against the Jayhawks in just his fifth career start. “Coach has done a tremendous job of just allowing me for this opportunity to just get this many minutes, and be in the starting lineup,” McGary said afterward. “I’m honored to have it. He says if you play hard in practice, you’re going to earn these minutes.” McGary’s season averages are 7.3 points and a team-best 6.1 rebounds. Burke, a sophomore point guard, leads the Wolverines in scoring (18.9) and assists (6.9) and finished with 23 points and 10 assists against Kansas. Junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr. averages 14.8 points.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 10-2 in Gators’ last 12 overall.
* Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.
* Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.

TIP-INS

1. Donovan has a 31-10 record in NCAA Tournament play and his .756 winning percentage is third among active coaches, trailing only Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski (.771) and Southern Methodist’s Larry Brown (.760).

2. The Wolverines haven’t won 30 games since compiling a 31-5 mark in 1992-93.

3. The winner faces either Syracuse or Marquette in the Final Four


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NCAAB

Sunday, March 31

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Duke vs. Louisville: What bettors need to know
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Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 137)

Louisville is the final No. 1 seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament and looked unbeatable behind Russ Smith in the first three games. Making the Final Four is never easy, however, and the Cardinals will need to get through No. 2 seed Duke in the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday. The Blue Devils have not had much trouble in their trip to the Elite Eight, either, and like Louisville have plenty of experience going deep in the Tournament.

The Cardinals have won 13 straight games going back to the regular season and have lived up to the hype as the No. 1 overall seed thanks in part to a total of 81 points in three NCAA Tournament games by Russ Smith. Duke can match Smith and Louisville shot for shot with Seth Curry, who went for 29 points in the Sweet Sixteen win over Michigan State and is 10-for-20 from 3-point range in the Tournament. After being bounced by a No. 15 seed last season, the Blue Devils are trying to make their first Final Four appearance since winning the National Championship in 2010.

TV: 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT DUKE (30-5): Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski has not faced Louisville coach Rick Pitino in the NCAA Tournament since Christian Laettner’s historic shot against Kentucky in the 1992 Elite Eight ended one of the greatest college basketball games ever. Krzyzewski’s 2012-13 team is not quite the same, but it does have a plethora of scoring options. Curry was just the latest to take over for Duke after sharing the scoring load with Mason Plumlee in the opening game of the Tournament and letting freshman Rasheed Sulaimon take over in the third-round victory over Creighton. Sulaimon attacking the paint helped open things up for Curry to hit six 3-pointers in the 71-61 victory over the Spartans on Friday. All five starters scored at least 14 points the last time the Blue Devils faced the Cardinals, with Plumlee’s 16 points leading the way in a 76-71 win in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on Nov. 24.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (32-5): The Cardinals were without center Gorgui Dieng in the November meeting with Duke, but Peyton Siva collected 19 points and six steals and Smith scored 17 to keep things close. Dieng is shooting 87.5 percent in the Tournament and should make things more difficult for Plumlee this time around. Louisville has won its 13 straight games by an average of 17.3 points but was sluggish in the Sweet Sixteen win over Oregon due to a cold virus making its way through the squad. Smith had the worst of it on Friday but still managed 31 points in the 77-69 win. Siva spent most of the game in foul trouble but backup point guard Kevin Ware went 5-for-7 off the bench in his place. The Cardinals are largely the same team that reached the Final Four last season, though Smith has taken on a greater role.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Blue Devils’ last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals’ last seven overall.

TIP-INS

1. The schools have not met in the NCAA Tournament since Louisville defeated Duke in the 1986 National Championship game.

2. Krzyzewski is attempting to reach his 12th Final Four, which would tie legendary UCLA coach John Wooden for the record.

3. Smith’s 81 points are the most ever for a Cardinals player in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament.


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NCAAB

Sunday, March 31

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NCAA's biggest betting mismatches: Sunday's Elite Eight
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators (-2.5, 131)

Wolverines’ freshmen vs. Gators’ ability to create turnovers

Florida ousted Florida Gulf Coast with strong defensive play that included 20 turnovers. The Gators have forced an average of 16.3 turnovers in the tournament and reached elite status to their suffocating defense, which yields a mere 53.7 points per game on 38 percent field goal efficiency -- those last two figures ranking in the top-five nationally.

While Florida is loaded with seniors and NCAA tournament experience, the Wolverines have three freshmen in their starting lineup. Trey Burke and Co. showed they can handle the heat in their triumph over Kansas, but will truly be tested by the Florida defense Sunday. The Gators have been to this point in the tournament each of the last two years and could have the edge should the game come down to the wire.


Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 137)

Blue Devils’ ability to pull away quickly vs. Cardinals’ 3-point shooting woes

Duke can score in a hurry because of its accuracy from long range. The Blue Devils ranked fifth in the country in 3-point percentage (40.3) and have the edge when it comes to putting space between them and the Cardinals. Sharpshooter Seth Curry was 6-for-9 from beyond the arc in Duke’s win over MSU.

Louisville could have a tough time playing catch-up as they don’t fire from 3-point land nearly as well as Duke. The Cardinals ranked 217th in the nation in 3-pointers made per game (5.7) and have averaged just over four per game in the tourney. Louisville went 4-for-13 from long range in its win over Oregon in the Sweet 16 and relies more on its ability to score points off turnovers.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, March 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Duke - 5:05 PM ET Louisville -3.5 500 POD

Louisville - Over 137.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Monday, April 1

CBI Tournament, Championship Series (Game One)

George Mason at Santa Clara, 10:00 ET
George Mason: 2-8 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Santa Clara: 8-0 ATS in postseason tournament games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

George Mason at Santa Clara
The Patriots look to take advantage of a Santa Clara team that is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 home games. George Mason is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, APRIL 1

Game 747-748: George Mason at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 56.102; Santa Clara 61.615
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 5 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 7 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+7 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, April 1

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GEORGE MASON (21 - 14) at SANTA CLARA (24 - 11) - 4/1/2013, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SANTA CLARA is 23-34 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 23-34 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 1

Santa Clara won its last four home games, by 9-10-23-10 points; they're still playing after winning at Purdue/Wright State last week. Broncos are 21-4 this season vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (George Mason is #137). Seven of Mason's last eight games were decided by six points or less, or in OT; they've won four of last five true road games. This is the first game of a best-of-3 series. Patriots are 2-4 vs teams ranked in top 100; its first one they've played since beating Richmond 67-64 Dec 22 (Santa Clara is #78). Over is 11-3 in last 14 Mason games, 4-1 last five Bronco games. Patriots covered six of last eight games as an underdog.




NCAAB

Monday, April 1

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Trend Report
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10:00 PM
GEORGE MASON vs. SANTA CLARA
George Mason is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of George Mason's last 5 games on the road
Santa Clara is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Santa Clara is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, April 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

George Mason - 10:00 PM ET George Mason +7 500 POD

Santa Clara - Under 145.5 500 POD

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Early Final Four line moves

Brackets have been busted, Cinderella has been crowned, and the tournament’s top team looks better than ever. Everything is set for a fantastic Final Four Saturday, including the odds.

Sportsbooks opened betting on the two Final Four matchups – Louisville vs. Wichita State and Syracuse vs. Michigan – Sunday night and already some of those lines have moved.

We talk to veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill Sportsbooks in Nevada and Michael Stewart, oddsmaker with online book CarbonSports.ag, about the early action on this weekend’s NCAA games.

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals – Open: -10, Move: -10.5

The tournament’s top seed looked dominant versus Duke and garnered a double-digit spread versus the NCAA’s Cinderella in the Final Four. According to CarbonSports.ag, sharp money swooped in and immediately pushed the spread to -10, a trend they expect will continue.

“We went to -10.5 late last night and that has stopped the bleeding some, but I do believe it's going to be a case where the public is going to continue to play Louisville,” Stewart told Covers. “Unless a sharp betting group comes in on the dog, this line closes Louisville -11.”

Things have been a little quieter in Las Vegas, where the line can still be had at Louisville -10. Vaccaro says that only one bettor looking to make a big wager on this game won’t do it right now, with the line expected to climb before the weekend.

He is also happy to see Louisville in the driver’s seat during Final Four weekend. The Cardinals present the biggest win for the book in terms of futures action, with teams like Ohio State and Miami – the biggest threats to the futures book – knocked off last week.

“Louisville is the biggest pick up for us. It’s the same thing year after year. These big faves don’t really hold any value come tournament time,” Vaccaro told Covers. “We have a little (futures money) on Michigan but nothing on Wichita State and nothing really on Syracuse. People forgot about them when things went bad at the end of the season.”

The total for Saturday’s game between Louisville and Wichita State has moved slightly depending on where you bet. The number climbed from 129.5 to as high as 131 points at some books while others haven’t taken much action on the over/under.

“The public usually doesn't get involved with totals until the day of the game and wiseguys are most likely waiting to bet them once our limits go up,” says Stewart.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange – Open: +2, Move: +2.5

Books debated opening this spread at Michigan -1.5 and some oddsmakers suggested this Final Four matchup was more in the pick’em range. Early money on the Wolverines bumped the spread to -2.5 and moneyline bettors didn’t bother with the spread, taking the Wolverines outright.

“We took a nice play on the Wolverines’ moneyline but that’s about it,” says Vaccaro, who told Covers the spread hasn’t moved much since post. “The smarts aren’t going to jump in right now. We’ve taken a little bit of action on Michigan.”

The total for this game has remained relatively steady, with some markets bumping the number from 130.5 to 131 points. According to CarbonSports.ag, the action is split on the over/under.

Syracuse’s zone defense has been especially stingy in the tournament, limiting opponents to just 61 total field goals and forcing 67 turnovers in four games while playing under the total in three of those contests. Michigan, on the other hand, is averaging just under 79 points in the NCAA and has topped the total in its last two outings.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four

Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. We peel back Saturday’s Final Four matchups in search of some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange (+2.5, 131)

Wolverines’ four-guard set vs. Orange’s long, athletic zone

Michigan’s high-powered offense is driven by a four-guard set featuring freshman big Mitch McGary as the only starter over 6-foot-6. The Wolverines are able to play at a very quick pace, averaging nearly 75 points on 58 field goal attempts per game. Many of those come from behind the arc and Michigan may have to rely on its 3-point shooting versus Syracuse Saturday.

With the Orange’s 2-3 zone plugging up the paint, the Maize and Blue could be left with little choice but to launch from distance. Michigan is among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country and is shooting 40 percent for the tournament.

Syracuse’s long defenders forced Indiana – another premier perimeter team – to chuck up bricks from outside, limiting the Hoosiers to 3-of-15 shooting from 3-point range. The Orange defense is getting a hand up on outside shooters while slowing games to a standstill - not Michigan’s type of party. Cuse has locked down tournament foes to just 61 total field goals in its four games so far.

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals (-10.5, 130.5)

Shockers’ second-chance buckets vs. Cardinals’ poor glass cleaning

Wichita State has hustled its way into the Final Four, surprising opponents and the nation with great defense, terrific team play, and relentless work on the glass. The Shockers were 25th in the country in rebounding and are especially dangerous on the offensive boards – 38th in Div. 1.

In the tournament, they’ve been out-rebounded only once (vs. Gonzaga) and more than 32 percent of their total boards are coming off the offensive glass. That’s led to plenty of second-chance looks for WSU.

Louisville has barely broken a sweat in the tournament with its closest game coming versus Oregon in the Sweet 16. The Cardinals don’t have many weaknesses but they have been soft on the boards, allowing opponents to grab 9.9 offensive rebounds per game this season.

Louisville allowed the Ducks to pull down 11 offensive rebounds and escaped with an eight-point win, it’s only blown cover since Dec. 23. The Cardinals failed to out-rebound their opponents in all but one of their five losses this season, giving up an average of 10.2 offensive boards in those games.

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NIT Semifinals: What bettors need to know

BYU Cougars vs. Baylor Bears (-3, 153)

The first of the two National Invitation Tournament semifinal games at Madison Square Garden figures to be a high-scoring and entertaining one. Baylor comes in averaging 93.3 in its three previous NIT wins while Brigham Young is averaging 86.3 and scored 90 points in victories over Washington and Mercer.

BYU, which won NIT titles in 1951 and 1966, leads the all-time series with Baylor, 5-4. The two teams already met once this season with Baylor claiming a 79-64 win on Dec. 21 in Waco. The Bears also defeated the Cougars a year earlier in Provo, 86-83. This marks just the second time in school history that BYU has played a game in April. The Cougars lost to Colorado, 16-10, on April 2, 1903 in Provo. "I encouraged the guys today to score a couple more points than maybe that team did," Cougar coach Dave Rose joked to the Salt Lake Tribune.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (24-11, 16-17-1 ATS): The Cougars looked at the NIT as a chance for redemption and have made the most of it following a 72-69 loss to San Diego in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference tournament which snuffed out any chance for an NCAA at-large berth. BYU, which struggled with its 3-point shooting much of the season, connected for a season-best 11 treys in its 79-62 quarterfinal win at Southern Miss on Wednesday and has been hitting on all cylinders offensively in the NIT. BYU finished with 24 assists on its 26 field goals against the Golden Eagles. "We went to six straight NCAA Tournaments before this year, and I don't remember being any more excited than we are right now," Rose told the Salt Lake Tribune. "I mean, this is really good for our team. It is really good for our program." Sophomore guard Tyler Haws leads the Cougars in scoring (21.6) and is shooting 38.4 percent from 3-point range while lanky 6-9 senior forward Brandon Davies (17.8) is an NBA prospect who has 24 career double-doubles.

ABOUT BAYLOR (21-14, 15-15-0 ATS): Like BYU, the Bears come in on a roll offensively. Baylor shot a school-record 69.6 percent (16-of-23) from 3-point range in its 112-66 win over Long Beach State in its NIT opener and finished with 31 assists. The Bears had five turnovers in their 79-68 quarterfinal win over Providence, tying for the fewest in the 10-year Scott Drew coaching era. Senior point guard Pierre Jackson, who leads the Big 12 in scoring (19.7) and assists (6.9), set an NIT record with 16 assists in the Bears' 89-86 second round victory over Arizona State and has scored in double figures in 41 of his last 42 games. Junior forward Cory Jefferson (12.8) leads the Big 12 in field goal percentage (60.3) while 7-1 freshman center Isaiah Austin has 10 double-doubles and ranks third in the Big 12 in rebounding (8.3).

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big 12.
* Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 6-2 in Cougars' last eight vs. Big 12.
* Over is 9-4 in Bears' last 13 non-conference games.

TIP-INS:

1. Haws, the WCC scoring leader (21.6), has scored 20 or more points in 24 games this season.

2. Baylor G Brady Heslip is shooting 58 percent (30-of-52) from 3-point range in seven career postseason games for Baylor.

3. PG Matt Carlino is averaging 17.7 points, nine assists and 6.3 rebounds in three NIT games for BYU while also connecting on 13-of-29 3-pointers (44.8 percent).

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins (+2.5, 136)

Maryland, which upset No. 1 seed Alabama, 58-57, in the quarterfinals, makes its third appearance in the National Invitation Tournament semifinals. The Terrapins, who captured the 1972 title with wins over Jacksonville and Niagara, fell in the 2005 semis to South Carolina. Maryland has won five of its last six games with the lone loss to North Carolina, 79-76, in the semifinals of the ACC tournament.

Iowa advanced to the NIT semifinals for the first time in school history with a 75-64 victory at Virginia on Wednesday, snapping the Cavaliers' 19-game home win streak. The Hawkeyes have won 10 of their last 13 games and have done so by an average of 13.2 points per game. It's the third meeting between the two schools. Maryland has won both including a 83-65 victory in 1999 in the last meeting.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2

ABOUT IOWA (24-12, 23-9-0 ATS): The Hawkeyes, who start just one senior in guard Eric May, are a team to keep an eye on in 2013-14. Since Feb. 6, only Ohio State (11) has more victories than Iowa (10) in the Big Ten. Six of the Hawkeyes' nine losses in Big Ten play were by margins of four points or less including two in overtime and one in double overtime. Junior guard Roy Devyn Marble leads the team in scoring (15.1) and is averaging 25.3 points, 5.3 assists and three steals in three NIT games. Alex Woodbury, a 7-1 freshman center, had 10 points and eight rebounds in the quarterfinal upset of Virginia and figures to play a key role defensively against Maryland 7-1 sophomore center Alex Len, a probable high NBA lottery pick in June. "It's a great challenge for him," Iowa coach Fran McCaffery told Hawkcentral.com. "He's gone against other lottery picks this year. We'll see how it goes. He'll be ready for the challenge."

ABOUT MARYLAND (25-12, 17-12-1 ATS): Maryland hit the 25-win mark for the ninth time in school history and did it with a 10-man rotation that features seven underclassmen. All eyes will be on Len who is coming in off a Alabama game in which he finished with 15 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks. Another sophomore, swingman Dez Wells, leads the team in scoring (13.2) and is averaging 18.3 points in the postseason. Maryland leads the ACC and ranks 10th nationally in field goal percentage defense (38.4) and has held 21 of its 37 opponents to under 40 percent shooting.

TRENDS:

* Hawkeyes are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
* Terrapins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten.
* Over is 4-1 in Hawkeyes' last five vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Over is 7-1 in Terrapins' last eight vs. Big Ten.

TIP-INS:

1. Maryland tops the ACC and ranks fourth nationally in rebounding margin at plus-8.7 per game.

2. Iowa has blocked a school-record 178 shots this season.

3. Freshman G Seth Allen, who averaged 7.8 points and 2.3 assists for the Terps, is out for the season after fracturing his hand in practice on March 24.

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Where the action is: Early Final Four line moves

Brackets have been busted, Cinderella has been crowned, and the tournament’s top team looks better than ever. Everything is set for a fantastic Final Four Saturday, including the odds.

Sportsbooks opened betting on the two Final Four matchups – Louisville vs. Wichita State and Syracuse vs. Michigan – Sunday night and already some of those lines have moved.

We talk to veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill Sportsbooks in Nevada and Michael Stewart, oddsmaker with online book CarbonSports.ag, about the early action on this weekend’s NCAA games.

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals – Open: -10, Move: -10.5

The tournament’s top seed looked dominant versus Duke and garnered a double-digit spread versus the NCAA’s Cinderella in the Final Four. According to CarbonSports.ag, sharp money swooped in and immediately pushed the spread to -10, a trend they expect will continue.

“We went to -10.5 late last night and that has stopped the bleeding some, but I do believe it's going to be a case where the public is going to continue to play Louisville,” Stewart told Covers. “Unless a sharp betting group comes in on the dog, this line closes Louisville -11.”

Things have been a little quieter in Las Vegas, where the line can still be had at Louisville -10. Vaccaro says that only one bettor looking to make a big wager on this game won’t do it right now, with the line expected to climb before the weekend.

He is also happy to see Louisville in the driver’s seat during Final Four weekend. The Cardinals present the biggest win for the book in terms of futures action, with teams like Ohio State and Miami – the biggest threats to the futures book – knocked off last week.

“Louisville is the biggest pick up for us. It’s the same thing year after year. These big faves don’t really hold any value come tournament time,” Vaccaro told Covers. “We have a little (futures money) on Michigan but nothing on Wichita State and nothing really on Syracuse. People forgot about them when things went bad at the end of the season.”

The total for Saturday’s game between Louisville and Wichita State has moved slightly depending on where you bet. The number climbed from 129.5 to as high as 131 points at some books while others haven’t taken much action on the over/under.

“The public usually doesn't get involved with totals until the day of the game and wiseguys are most likely waiting to bet them once our limits go up,” says Stewart.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange – Open: +2, Move: +2.5

Books debated opening this spread at Michigan -1.5 and some oddsmakers suggested this Final Four matchup was more in the pick’em range. Early money on the Wolverines bumped the spread to -2.5 and moneyline bettors didn’t bother with the spread, taking the Wolverines outright.

“We took a nice play on the Wolverines’ moneyline but that’s about it,” says Vaccaro, who told Covers the spread hasn’t moved much since post. “The smarts aren’t going to jump in right now. We’ve taken a little bit of action on Michigan.”

The total for this game has remained relatively steady, with some markets bumping the number from 130.5 to 131 points. According to CarbonSports.ag, the action is split on the over/under.

Syracuse’s zone defense has been especially stingy in the tournament, limiting opponents to just 61 total field goals and forcing 67 turnovers in four games while playing under the total in three of those contests. Michigan, on the other hand, is averaging just under 79 points in the NCAA and has topped the total in its last two outings.

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NCAA tournament trends: Betting the Final Four

Listed below are some interesting trends and angles for the Final Four and National title game as college basketball betting head to Atlanta this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

FINAL FOUR NOTES

• No. 1 Seed favorites 4 > pts are 6-1 ATS (Louisville)

• No. 8 or lower Seeds are 1-4 ATS (Wichita State)

• Favorites who won by 20 > pts are 0-4 ATS (Louisville)

• Favorites 4 > pts who scored 80 > pts in Elite Eight are 1-7 ATS (Louisville)

• Teams who are 4-0 ATS last four games are 8-15 ATS (Michigan, Wichita State)

• Big East teams are 0-3 ATS since 2004 (Louisville, Syracuse)

NATIONAL TITLE GAME NOTES

• No. 1 Seed favorites are 7-2 ATS

• No. 4 Seeds are 2-0 ATS

• No. 5 or worse Seeds are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS

• Favorites of 5 < pts are 11-1 ATS

• Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final Four are 5-1 ATS

• Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS

• Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final Four are 0-5 ATS

• Dogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 0-4 ATS

• Big East teams are 4-0 ATS

• Big 10 teams are 0-4 ATS

COACH ME UP

Louisville’s Rick Pitino is:

47-13 SU and 36-22-3 ATS in NCAA tournament
119-52 SU and 100-66-5 ATS vs. Big East
16-11 SU and 11-16 ATS vs. Big Ten
4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS vs. MVC
8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS vs. Beilein
12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS vs. Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Marshall

Michigan’s John Beilein is:

12-6 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
47-53 SU and 50-48-2 ATS vs. Big East
6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. MVC
0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Marshall
2-2 SU AND 1-2-1 ATS vs. Pitino

Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim is:

34-18 SU and 27-21-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS vs. Big Ten
292-160 SU and 219-227-5 ATS vs. Big East
4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS vs. MVC
9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS vs. Beilein
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Marshall
1-0 5-12 SU and 6-10-1 ATS vs. Pitino

Wichita State’s Greg Marshall is:

4-1 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS vs. Big East
3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs. Big Ten
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Belein
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Pitino
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NCAA tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four

Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. We peel back Saturday’s Final Four matchups in search of some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange (+2.5, 131)

Wolverines’ four-guard set vs. Orange’s long, athletic zone

Michigan’s high-powered offense is driven by a four-guard set featuring freshman big Mitch McGary as the only starter over 6-foot-6. The Wolverines are able to play at a very quick pace, averaging nearly 75 points on 58 field goal attempts per game. Many of those come from behind the arc and Michigan may have to rely on its 3-point shooting versus Syracuse Saturday.

With the Orange’s 2-3 zone plugging up the paint, the Maize and Blue could be left with little choice but to launch from distance. Michigan is among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country and is shooting 40 percent for the tournament.

Syracuse’s long defenders forced Indiana – another premier perimeter team – to chuck up bricks from outside, limiting the Hoosiers to 3-of-15 shooting from 3-point range. The Orange defense is getting a hand up on outside shooters while slowing games to a standstill - not Michigan’s type of party. Cuse has locked down tournament foes to just 61 total field goals in its four games so far.


Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals (-10.5, 130.5)

Shockers’ second-chance buckets vs. Cardinals’ poor glass cleaning

Wichita State has hustled its way into the Final Four, surprising opponents and the nation with great defense, terrific team play, and relentless work on the glass. The Shockers were 25th in the country in rebounding and are especially dangerous on the offensive boards – 38th in Div. 1.

In the tournament, they’ve been out-rebounded only once (vs. Gonzaga) and more than 32 percent of their total boards are coming off the offensive glass. That’s led to plenty of second-chance looks for WSU.

Louisville has barely broken a sweat in the tournament with its closest game coming versus Oregon in the Sweet 16. The Cardinals don’t have many weaknesses but they have been soft on the boards, allowing opponents to grab 9.9 offensive rebounds per game this season.

Louisville allowed the Ducks to pull down 11 offensive rebounds and escaped with an eight-point win, it’s only blown cover since Dec. 23. The Cardinals failed to out-rebound their opponents in all but one of their five losses this season, giving up an average of 10.2 offensive boards in those games.
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NCAA tournament's biggest betting mismatches: Final Four

Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. We peel back Saturday’s Final Four matchups in search of some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange (+2.5, 131)

Wolverines’ four-guard set vs. Orange’s long, athletic zone

Michigan’s high-powered offense is driven by a four-guard set featuring freshman big Mitch McGary as the only starter over 6-foot-6. The Wolverines are able to play at a very quick pace, averaging nearly 75 points on 58 field goal attempts per game. Many of those come from behind the arc and Michigan may have to rely on its 3-point shooting versus Syracuse Saturday.

With the Orange’s 2-3 zone plugging up the paint, the Maize and Blue could be left with little choice but to launch from distance. Michigan is among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country and is shooting 40 percent for the tournament.

Syracuse’s long defenders forced Indiana – another premier perimeter team – to chuck up bricks from outside, limiting the Hoosiers to 3-of-15 shooting from 3-point range. The Orange defense is getting a hand up on outside shooters while slowing games to a standstill - not Michigan’s type of party. Cuse has locked down tournament foes to just 61 total field goals in its four games so far.


Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals (-10.5, 130.5)

Shockers’ second-chance buckets vs. Cardinals’ poor glass cleaning

Wichita State has hustled its way into the Final Four, surprising opponents and the nation with great defense, terrific team play, and relentless work on the glass. The Shockers were 25th in the country in rebounding and are especially dangerous on the offensive boards – 38th in Div. 1.

In the tournament, they’ve been out-rebounded only once (vs. Gonzaga) and more than 32 percent of their total boards are coming off the offensive glass. That’s led to plenty of second-chance looks for WSU.

Louisville has barely broken a sweat in the tournament with its closest game coming versus Oregon in the Sweet 16. The Cardinals don’t have many weaknesses but they have been soft on the boards, allowing opponents to grab 9.9 offensive rebounds per game this season.

Louisville allowed the Ducks to pull down 11 offensive rebounds and escaped with an eight-point win, it’s only blown cover since Dec. 23. The Cardinals failed to out-rebound their opponents in all but one of their five losses this season, giving up an average of 10.2 offensive boards in those games.