The Bum's 2013 NFL Playoffs and SuperBowl Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Super Bowl XLVII

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, there’s no shortage of analysis and re-analysis. The media mosh pit breaks down every angle for the Big Game, in hopes of finding the edge.

We’ve been doing this each week of the NFL season, exposing the underlying mismatches to keep you one step ahead of the books, and we’re not going to stop now. Here are three betting mismatches you may or may not have considered when handicapping Super Bowl XLVII.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47)

Ravens’ deep threat vs. Niners’ deep-rooted issues

The Ravens rode the big arm of QB Joe Flacco to New Orleans, with Baltimore averaging 276 yards per game and 9.2 yards per pass in the playoffs. Flacco isn’t afraid to let it fly, going 20 yards or more on over 17 percent of his pass attempts this year – highest in the league. Half on his 22 TD passes this season have been on deep balls.

San Francisco watched Atlanta move the ball with ease en route to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons spread the love amongst their receivers and got two deep strikes from WR Julio Jones. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Niners’ QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Ravens’ record vs. dual threats

Baltimore’s aging defense hasn’t had to tangle with many dual-threat QBs this season. However, the two times they did have to worry about the QB breaking off big gains, they got burned for losses. The Ravens fell 24-23 to Philadelphia and Michael Vick (371 yards passing, 34 yards rushing and a TD) in Week 2 and lost 31-28 in overtime to Washington and rookie Robert Griffin III (242 yards passing, 34 yards rushing) in Week 14.

The Ravens have a tough time getting sideline to sideline and Kaepernick presents a huge challenge. Not only does his ability to scramble and break the big run need to be accounted for on every snap, but he’s proven just as dangerous with his arm. Kaepernick gashed Green Bay for 181 yards and two TDs on the ground while tacking on two more scores and 263 passing yards in the NFC Divisional Round.

Ravens’ oh-so special teams vs. Niners’ not-so special teams

The biggest chink in the 49ers' armor this season is their special teams. San Francisco was second worst in the NFL in kick return coverage, giving up 26.9 yards per kickoff. The Niners didn’t take any chances last week, recording five touchbacks on five kickoffs. The Ravens return team was tops in the NFL in average return yards, picking up 27.3 yards per kickoff and returned two kicks for scores, both from speedster Jacoby Jones.

On top of that, Baltimore boasts the steady leg of rookie Justin Tucker, who connected on 32 of his 35 field goal attempts and is perfect on extra points. He’s hit both FG attempts in the postseason so far, which is more than 49ers kicker David Akers can say. Akers has been shaky all season (29 for 42 FGA) and “donged” a 38-yard attempt off the left upright versus Atlanta two weeks ago. San Francisco may roll the dice on fourth down instead of sending out Akers for the long FG shot Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Super Bowl XLVII betting trends and notes


Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.

In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.

As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.

Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.

All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise.

Oh, brother

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.

The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.

In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

Advantage: Even

Commonality

These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.

The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.

In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS and 4-5 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.

Advantage: Ravens

Not so sweet favorites

The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

Advantage: Ravens

Conference call

Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.

However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.

This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.

Advantage: Niners

Statistically speaking

Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.

From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.

Advantage: Even

Defense rules… most of the time

It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

Advantage: Niners

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Prop Shop: Super Bowl XLVII prop picks

It's almost time to close down the Prop Shop for another year, but not before targeting four best bets on Super Bowl Sunday.

Most passing yards

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)

I expect both quarterbacks to have plenty of success on Sunday, but I can't resist playing Kaepernick with a considerable yardage cushion. The 49ers receivers match up well against the Ravens secondary, and I don't think we'll see Kaepernick hesitate to throw it deep when given the opportunity.

We haven't seen a lot of that from the rookie, but I expect the Ravens to do a nice job of limiting Kaepernick's mobility in this game and as a result, forcing him to take to the air a little more often than usual. Joe Flacco is well-positioned to turn in another stellar effort but his lack of consistency worries me in terms of this prop.

Take: Kaepernick +17.5 yards (-110)

Most rushing yards

Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)

Ray Rice is still the Ravens’ go-to guy out of the backfield, but Bernard Pierce has certainly cut into his workload and I think we'll see more of that Sunday. The 49ers are obviously tough up front and I'm not sure that Rice's physical, north-south running will lead to a big day on the ground. Don't be surprised if Rice is more of a factor in the Ravens’ short passing game.

Colin Kaepernick is getting all of the press, but Frank Gore is still the engine that makes the 49ers offense go. With much of the Ravens’ defensive game-planning geared toward stopping Kaepernick, Gore will find plenty of room to run. He might not see the end zone, with LaMichael James delivering consistently from 15 yards in, but he'll outrun Ray Rice by a considerable margin.

Take: Gore -17.5 yards (-110)

Most pass receptions

Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers)

The re-emergence of Anquan Boldin has been an overlooked factor in the Ravens’ run to the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco is more comfortable throwing to Boldin than anyone else right now and in a game of this magnitude, it's the veterans that often shine.

Michael Crabtree has really come out of his shell over the last couple of months. No 49ers receiver has benefited more from the change at quarterback. With that comes more attention from the opposition, and I won't be surprised if the Ravens send double-coverage Crabtree's way on numerous occasions.

Take: Boldin (+105)

Total combined field goals made

The hook could come in to play, so make sure you can find a 3.5.

The Ravens have a lot of faith in Justin Tucker, but the 49ers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with David Akers.

I simply feel that the two offenses are operating at a peak level right now and we won't see a lot of stalled drives in enemy territory. Let's call for two from Tucker and one from Akers.

Take: Under 3.5 (-160)

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, February 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 6:30 PM ET San Francisco -4.5 500

San Francisco - Under 47.5 500


My Prediciton 9ers by 10 or more...


9ers - 28

Ravens - 17