The Bum's 2013 NFL Playoffs and SuperBowl Best Bets !

[Udog]

Posting early i'll be on a plane to Honolulu for Pro Bowl Festivity Week and the game....I'll try to post my daily threads...the time change will throw me off for sure.....Good Luck !!

Alright! Have fun, Bum! WTG yesterday!

[StarDust Bum]

SBXLVII - Betting Update

January 29, 2013

Props Galore

The darling of the prop season this year is San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick. People can’t get enough of the running quarterback who can throw equally as deadly, and the sports books have met the demand by offering a prop on just about everything he could possibly do in the Super Bowl. Total passing yards: 235.5. Total rushing yards: 48.5. William Hill sports books lead the way with 23 different Kaepernick props.

William Hill books also did a nice little contest for the public to get involved with asking bettors to send in their own prop. The winner was 49ers fan Mike Smyth who wanted to see a prop asking whether or not 49ers backup QB Alex Smith would take a snap. William Hill posted No -700, YES +500. For his efforts, he was awarded a $100 bet on the Super Bowl. Way to go, Mike!

Where’s The Line Going to Go?

It’s hard to gauge how the final wave of action will come in because we should see 90 percent of the overall Super Bowl action begin playing over the weekend. The first wave saw lots of Ravens action, likely because everyone was so impressed by their win against at New England. That was last Sunday night when the line first came out where all the +5’s and 4.5’s were gobbled up.

But then things started to simmer down with equal action, and then to some degree, a shade towards the 49ers. Most sports books -- other than Wynn and William Hill -- went to 49ers -3.5, but on Friday, Coast Resorts went back to -4. On Sunday, Caesars also made the leap back to -4.

However, the most surprising move Sunday came up north at the Peppermill where they dropped the 49ers to -4. They started at -6.5 with intentions of staying high because of all the 49ers money expected in 49ers country, but obviously they couldn’t wait it out and made the decision to move.

"Our initial goal was to try and stay about a half-point above what Las Vegas was doing,” said Terry Cox, sports book director at the Peppermill. “That strategy worked very well for us in the NFC Championship where we had mostly 49ers money laying 4.5-points, instead of 4 like most had (49ers won 28-24). But we got to the point where the money dictated a move here and it was time to go.”

My first thought was that underdog money would come in the normal tradition of the Super Bowl. In the regular season, you can’t get bettors to take an underdog, but all of a sudden when the Super Bowl rolls around, they’re all over the ‘dog. And for the most part, they’ve been correct -- covering four of the last five Super Bowls and eight of the last 11.

If I had to guess, I think that final wave of action will still be weighted with Ravens money, making it probable that we might see some 3’s pop up by kickoff.

Who will the star of the game be?

This depends on who you think will win the game. I haven’t wavered from my initial thoughts of the Ravens winning in a high- scoring game, and if that happens, the main culprit for success would be Ravens QB Joe Flacco. In three playoff games thus far, Flacco has tossed eight touchdown passes and hasn’t thrown an interception. He’s averaged 284 yards passing over those three games and you could argue that he’s been in his best groove of the season.

That groove could be in jeopardy with the week off. We’ve seen over the years how flat some of the No. 1 and 2 seeds fare with the week off when they have to play a wild card winner, but I think Flacco will be okay. The only concern may be playing indoors. The Ravens lost their only indoor game this season, 43-13, at Houston in October, and they come off of frigid wins at Denver and New England. Maybe the temperature will be too nice for Flacco.

Besides the run Flacco’s on, one of the other main reasons to like him is the 49ers defense. Once held in high regards as one of the NFL’s best defenses, the tempo created by Kaepernick has put more pressure on the defense and they haven’t been as good. Consider that the 49ers defense gave up more than 340 yards in four of their last five games. The only team they held under 300 yards over that span was the pitiful Cardinals offense. In Week 15 they gave up 388 yards to the Patriots, 346 to Seattle in Week 17, 352 to the Packers in the divisional playoff, and 477 to the Falcons in the NFC championship game.

Teams are finding ways to beat the 49ers defense and it’s usually been downfield which has helped produce games going OVER the total in nine of their last 10 games. One thing Flacco does very well is throw the deep ball.

So needless to say, I find several of the props regarding yardage and TD passes with Flacco attractive. At the same time, if Flacco has success, that means the recipients of his passes should do well. That means Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta could be good plays OVER on some of their props. The LVH has a prop that pays +340 (Bet $100 to win $340) if Smith scores a TD in the first half. If you like the game high scoring like I do, then that becomes a distinct possibility.

[StarDust Bum]

Bettin' the Super Props

January 30, 2013

Super Props – Let The Games Begin

Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans kicks off Feb. 3 when Baltimore meets San Francisco with both teams looking to keep their all-time undefeated mark in Super Bowl games in tact.

Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet like partners at a local gay pride parade.

It's important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the odds maker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent 'juice' edge in his favor. Thus, it's critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create added action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports at the LVH Super Book in Las Vegas.

Furthermore, it's important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay this is the only NFL game of the season where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

Here are some tips on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year's Super Bowl.

The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It's fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off.

Until last season when New England won the flip, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip each of the previous 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year's coin flip: 50/50.

Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 25 times in 46 previous Super Bowl games, with Eli Manning carting home the award last year.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP's.

Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick lead the charge this year. In head-to-head proposition competition the LVH favors Flacco by 12 1/2 passing yards over Kaepernick. Flacco is also listed with 3 1/2 more completions than Kaepernick, while total TD’s passes among the two is offered a ‘pick’.

Interestingly, the Niners are -57 1/2 rushing yards over the Ravens for the game at the LVH.

That’s largely due to the groundswell of support for San Francisco since Kaepernick took over as its starting quarterback nine games ago. In those nine games the Niners have averaged 159 rushing yards per contest. Baltimore has averaged 151 rushing yards per game over the same period of time.

When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the over/under number of tackles it's important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.

In addition, propositions involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

Team Scoring Tendencies

Sharp edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads. The final number is average points scored and allowed in each quarter for each team.

Note: the Ravens have played 19 games this campaign, the Niners 18.

1Q – Baltimore: 102-87 / 5.37-4.58
1Q – San Francisco: 64-78 / 3.56-4.33

2Q – Baltimore: 132-126 / 6.95–6.63
2Q – San Francisco: 141-84 / 7.83-4.67

3Q – Baltimore: 119-96 / 6.26-5.05
3Q – San Francisco: 114-58 / 6.33-3.22

4Q – Baltimore: 129-89 / 6.79-4.68
4Q – San Francisco: 151-105 / 8.39-5.83

Notice the Niners scoring woes in the first stanza and its ability to light the scoreboard during the final quarter. The Ravens also start slow but pick up the pace at a fairly even keel thereafter.

Here’s the same look at the two teams in games versus fellow playoff teams this season.

Note: the Ravens have played 9 games against playoff squads this season, the Niners 7.

1Q – Baltimore: 41-56 / 4.56-6.22
1Q – San Francisco: 20-48 / 2.86-6.86

2Q – Baltimore: 59-81 / 6.56–9.00
2Q – San Francisco: 63-58 / 9.00-8.29

3Q – Baltimore: 55-53 / 6.17-5.89
3Q – San Francisco: 52-17/ 7.43-2.43

4Q – Baltimore: 82-38 / 9.11-4.22
4Q – San Francisco: 48-60 / 6.86-8.57

Hmm. Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition, while managing to bounce back and dominate in the 4th and final quarter.

On the flip side San Francisco has been outscored in the 1st and 4th quarters but, thanks to a super stingy 3rd quarter defensive effort, has come out on top in the middle stanzas.

Buyer beware.

Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVII is San Francisco RB Frank Gore, with teammate WR Michael Crabtree and Baltimore RB Ray Rice a whisker off.

Leading the next wave is San Francisco QB Kaepernick and Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin, along with Niners WR Vernon Davis and Ravens WR Torrey Smith.

Over the previous 46 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 19 times. New York WR Victor Cruz found the end zone first for the Giants against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI last year – but not before the Giants were on the scoreboard first with a Tom Brady safety called for intentional grounding in the end zone.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular wagering option.

The LVH features no less than 38 cross-sports opportunities ranging from Kaepernick’s total passing yards -46.5 versus the L.A. Clippers and Boston Celtics total points scored to Flacco’s completions +0.5 versus Kevin Garnett’s points and rebounds combined.

College hoops gets in to the fray with the Big East basketball teams (Providence, Villanova, Marquette, Louisville, South Florida and Connecticut) combining lay -45.5 points up against the Ravens total net yards. FYI: the six hoops teams were averaging 68 PPG, or 414 total PPG combined) on the season entering Tuesday’s action of Super Bowl week). The Ravens have averaged 364 total YPG this season.

Golfers are offered 4 cross-props (that just sounds wrong), the most popular of which is Sergio Garcia’s 4th round score on Super Bowl Sunday (-1.5) versus Smith’s receiving yards.

Soccer fanatics can pit Lionel Messi’s goals (-0.5) up against Gore’s touchdowns.

Hockey fans can get in the game, too, with Sidney Crosby’s goals a pick ‘em against Kaepernick’s touchdown passes.

And on and on it goes. Where it stops only Jay Kornegay knows.

One thing is for sure. This will mark the 9th straight year that the team with the best record in the league will not win the Super Bowl.

That’s a lock.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Super Bowl XLVII

February 1, 2013

Postseason Recap

Gamblers watched the 'under' go 122-117-2 in the regular season, which is pretty much a wash. In the postseason, we can say the same as the ‘over/under’ has gone 5-5 in the 10 games. In the conference title games, the ‘over’ was never in doubt in the NFC Championship and the ‘under’ in the AFC Championship was helped with Patriots’ offense getting blanked in the second-half.

Line Analysis

The Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) opened the total at 49 and it was knocked down immediately. It currently sits at 47 1/2. CRIS, one of the biggest offshore betting shops, also opened at 49 and they’re a tad lower at 47. Why the drop?

VegasInsider.com pro football expert Paul Bovi explains, “The opening line was likely in part reflective of a preconceived notion that the public would lean to the high side, as is typical of most Super Bowls. The early move, regardless of the outcome, certainly captured value based on what can only be considered an inflated number, especially given that these teams engaged in a 22-point slug fest only a little more than a year ago in which there were a mere 423 yards combined.”

Baltimore beat San Francisco 16-6 last season on Thanksgiving Day, which was the primetime game on the holiday slate. The closing total of 40 was never threatened. The 49ers couldn’t do anything on offense but they also had QB Alex Smith starting under center.

Regardless of what happens Sunday, it’s safe to say that the books will probably never have a Super Bowl total listed in the thirties ever again. However, next year’s game will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Super Bowl Trends and Venue

Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 23-22 in the Super Bowl and that includes a 6-4 mark in the last 10 years. This will be the 10th time that New Orleans will host the Super Bowl the first since 2002. In the first nine games from “The Big Easy” the ‘under’ has gone 6-3. Make a note that the games in 1970, 1972 and 1975 were played at Tulane Stadium.


Super Bowl History
Super Bowl Year Total Score Result
XXXVI 2002 53 New England 20 St. Louis 17 Under
XXXI 1997 49 Green Bay 35 New England 21 Over
XXIV 1990 48 San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Over
XX 1986 37.5 Chicago 46 New England 10 Over
XV 1981 37.5 Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 Under
XII 1978 39 Dallas 27 Denver 10 Under
IX 1975 33 Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 Under
VI 1972 34 Dallas 24 Miami 3 Under
IV 1970 39 Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Under


This will be the 16th Super Bowl that has been played indoors or with a closed roof. In the first 15 games, total players have watched the ‘under’ go 9-6 and that includes a 3-1 run of low-scoring affairs.

Parlay Probabilities

Since it’s the last pro football game of the season to bet, a lot of gamblers like to press their bets and try to cash both the side and the total with a two-team parlay at 12/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260).


Super Bowl Parlay History Combination
Combination Win Percentage
Favorite-Over 15 34%
Favorite-Under 11 25%
Underdog-Under 9 20%
Underdog-Over 7 16%
Push-Over 1 2.5%
Push-Under 1 2.5%


Looking at the above, you can see that the Favorite-Over combination has been the most profitable but that parlay hasn’t been cashing like it did in the eighties and nineties. Green Bay’s 31-25 win over Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV was the last Favorite-Over combination to hit. Prior to that, you would have to rewind to 2001 when Baltimore beat the N.Y. Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl XXXV.

The Underdog-Over combination has only happened seven times, which is the least, and gamblers should note that Tampa Bay was the last ‘dog to win straight up in a Super Bowl where the total went ‘over’ the number. In case you forgot, the Buccaneers blasted the Raiders 48-21.

San Francisco is 5-0 in its five Super Bowl appearances and it’s posted a 4-1 mark against the spread. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games.

Inside the Numbers

San Francisco has seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight and nine of its last 10 games, rather easily too. The 49ers offense put up 45 and 28 points in their two playoff games and the once highly regarded defense has surrendered 31 and 24 in those contests.

Despite scoring 24, 38 and 28 in the playoffs, Baltimore has watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in those games. The Ravens’ defense does a lot of bending but it hasn’t broke lately. In the postseason, the unit has allowed nine scores, five field goals and four touchdowns. Overall, the Ravens have seen the ‘over’ go 11-8 this season but the ‘under’ has produced a 6-3-1 mark on the road.

Head coach John Harbaugh and the Ravens defense have played well with time to prepare. Since he started in 2008, the team has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with a bye week. In those games, the Ravens allowed 10, 7, 10, 14, 13 and 15 points.

QB Edge

The 49ers have been a different team with Colin Kaepernick and Paul Bovi believes the second-year standout from Nevada can be the difference. He explained, “Kapernick's mobility lends an edge to the Niners, as the Ravens will have to defend the edges much like the Falcons did by eliminating and/or minimizing man coverage. Baltimore has faced only two multidimensional QBs this year in Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. And it could be argued that he is more elusive than the former while RG3 was unable to finish the game due to a knee injury.”

The Eagles posted 486 yards of offense, but Vick only posted 34 yards on the ground. The Redskins also had a great day, racking up 423 total yards against the Ravens. RG3 only ran for 34 yards and he was sacked three times but Washington running back Alfred Morris took advantage of the Ravens focus on RG3 and scampered for 129 yards on 23 carries.

If you look at Kaepernick’s performances against non-divisional teams, San Francisco has posted 32, 31, 27, 41, 45 and 28 points. The 49ers’ defense certainly helped the youngster out in a couple games, in particular road battles at the Saints and Patriots. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the club is 6-0 both SU and 5-0-1 ATS and the ‘over’ cashed in all six.

Fearless Predictions

Heading into Super Bowl XLVII, we’re ahead $780 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end, we wish you luck and hope to see you next season!

Best Total: Over 47 San Francisco-Baltimore

Best Team Total: Over 26 San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Brothers collide in Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-6)

vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-4-1)


Super Bowl XLVII - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3 - 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -3.5, Total: 47.5

Although the stories in the mainstream media since the conference championship games have focused on the Harbaugh brothers matching wits on the sidelines, Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday promises to be one of the more interesting match-ups in recent Super Bowl history when the Ravens and 49ers meet in New Orleans.

For all intents and purposes, both of these teams are Super Bowl newbies. LB Ray Lewis was the Super Bowl XXXV MVP, but even longtime teammate S Ed Reed was two seasons away from his rookie year when the Ravens won their only title. The Ravens won the first Harbaugh Bowl, on Thanksgiving night 2011 in Baltimore, 16-6. It wasn’t a beautiful game, with each team kicking a pair of field goals over the first three quarters. A Joe Flacco-to-Dennis Pitta TD capped off a long drive to open the fourth quarter and seal the game. The Niners couldn’t generate anything on offense, gaining just 170 yards on the night. Niners RB Frank Gore had just 39 yards on 14 carries, while now-backup QB Alex Smith threw for just 140 yards and an INT, and was sacked a whopping nine times (three by Terrell Suggs).

Can the Ravens keep this game close with the possibility of a huge upset? For the answer, connect to Super Bowl XLVII Best Bets Guide for all the ******* Experts picks -- ATS, Over/Under and Props -- for the big game. So far during the postseason, the experts are a collective 14-4-1 ATS (78%) and 10-4 (71%) on Totals. ******* Brian is 5-0 ATS and 3-2 in Totals, Scott is 3-0 ATS and 3-2 in Totals, and Gary 3-0 ATS and 4-0 in Totals.

Baltimore came into this season with plans to put the game in QB Joe Flacco’s hands. It was an up-and-down year, but Flacco has stepped up big in the postseason, throwing eight touchdown passes without an interception. The Ravens offense will have to prove they can move the ball on the Niners’ top-notch defense. They got past Denver thanks to some big plays, and last week in New England they were going nowhere until Aqib Talib, the Patriots’ only NFL-caliber cornerback, went down with an injury. Defensively the Niners haven’t been as dominant as they were in 2011, but they’ll be by far the best defense Flacco has faced during the playoffs. The Flacco Ravens have had no shortage of postseason success away from Charm City. Since Flacco’s rookie year, they’re 7-3 ATS (6-4 SU) in road postseason games.

The Ravens defense hasn’t really shut anyone down this year, and they’re allowing 415.0 YPG in the postseason, but they have been tightening up in the red zone. They allowed the NFL’s second-lowest red zone TD percentage during the regular season (43.4%). They’ve been even stingier in the postseason, allowing just four touchdowns and 37 points on 10 red-zone trips.

49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is this game’s x-factor. He was on the sideline for last year's loss to Baltimore, but adds another dimension to the San Francisco offense. He’s been sacked just 13 times in nine starts, and after rushing for an NFL quarterback record 181 yards in his playoff debut, he was surgical as a passer in a comeback win at Atlanta (16-for-21, 233 yards, no turnovers). The Ravens saw mobile quarterbacks twice this year, and lost to both of them. They forced Michael Vick to turn it over three times in a November matchup, but also allowed 371 passing yards in a 24-23 loss at Philadelphia. In Washington in Week 14, Robert Griffin III threw for 242 yards on only 26 attempts, and while Baltimore held him to 34 rushing yards, they allowed 179 that afternoon in a 31-28 overtime loss.

In Kaepernick’s nine starts (including two postseason starts), the Niners have scored touchdowns on 51.2% of their red-zone trips. But they’ve really heated up in the postseason, scoring 9 TD in 12 red-zone chances. Keeping San Francisco from finishing drives will be especially key considering the recent struggles of veteran kicker David Akers. The lefty is just 12-for-20 on all field goals since Thanksgiving, including four misses from inside 40. Considering how evenly matched these teams are, a shank from Akers could very well spell the difference.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl XLVII action report: Some books move to 3-point spread

Super Bowl XLVII is just one week away. While action has been hot and heavy at sportsbooks online and in Nevada, the bulk of the bets will come over the next seven days.

We talk with Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, Aron Black of Bet365.com, and oddsmakers at online book BetDSI.com about the Super Bowl odds as the week-long countdown begins in New Orleans.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Most sportsbooks are dealing the favored 49ers at -3.5. However, some markets have stayed high with San Francisco -4 while others have gone as low as -3. But if you’re going to grab the Niners at a field-goal spread expect to pay a hefty price. Juice is as high as -125 on the short spread.

One of the books dealing a field-goal spread is Bet365.com, which moved to -3 after taking one-sided money on Baltimore since opening.

"Yeah, the dreaded break to the key number. Not a decision taken easily," Black told Covers. "Since the move we have taken some more San Francisco money. I think many were waiting for the better price on the flat three. We may have to go back to 3.5. But for now, we have made the move and we shall see whether it was right or not."

The LVH Superbook is currently dealing San Francisco at -3.5 and has begun to take some big bets on the Niners after a week of one-sided Baltimore action. According to Kornegay the bet count is balancing out and he doesn’t expect their spread to shrink before kickoff on Feb. 3.

“I doubt it,” Kornegay told Covers about a move to -3. “We’re expecting more San Francisco money this week, especially in the last 48 hours. If it goes anywhere, it’ll go back up to -4.”

As for moneyline wagering, a flood of bets on the Ravens to win straight up has pushed the price on San Francisco from -205 to as low as -159 in some markets. BetDSI.com is currently dealing the 49ers as -175 moneyline favorites, which is drawing the attention of wiseguys.

“The majority of action that has been wagered has come from the public at this time,” BetDSI.com told Covers. “The only sharp action that has been put in play has been on the San Francisco moneyline.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Super Bowl XLVII betting trends and notes

Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.

In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.

As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.

Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.

All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise.

Oh, brother

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.

The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.

In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

Advantage: Even


Commonality

These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.

The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.

In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 4-3 SU and ATS and 3-4 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.

Advantage: Ravens


Not so sweet favorites

The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

Advantage: Ravens


Conference call

Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.

However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.

This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.

Advantage: Niners


Statistically speaking

Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.

From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.

Advantage: Even


Defense rules… most of the time

It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

Advantage: Niners

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Baltimore vs. San Francisco
The 49ers look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 non-conference games. San Francisco is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3

Game 101-102: Baltimore vs. San Francisco (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.325; San Francisco 142.495
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 3

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BALTIMORE (13 - 6) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 4 - 1) - 2/3/2013, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, February 3

Baltimore vs. San Francisco, 6:30 ET CBS
Baltimore: 6-0 Under away off BB ATS wins
San Francisco: 10-2 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points




NFL

Super Bowl XLVII

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguy Report: Sharp money on Super Bowl props

It’s no secret where the early money has come on the Super Bowl. At the opening number, San Francisco was as high as a 5.5-point favorite offshore, with mostly -5’s here in Las Vegas. But we’ve seen steady Baltimore money pour in since that time, driving the line down to the -3.5 or -4 range at every sportsbook in town; numbers that are currently attracting two-way action. I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff.

The early sharp money has also come in support of the under. One prominent offshore book opened the total at 52.5, and here in Vegas we saw several books open with a total of 50. Through the first week of Super Bowl betting, the under has been a popular wiseguy choice. The prevailing current offshore number is 47.5; here in Vegas we’re looking at mostly 48’s. I do expect the public to be squarely on the over Sunday – this total could easily get bet up a notch or two.

The Super Bowl is a unique animal when it comes to moneylines, particularly at the sportsbooks here in Vegas. We get a boatload of tourists in town for the big game, and those tourists have a strong tendency to bet the moneyline when supporting the underdog. Right now, San Francisco is in the -170 to -180 range on the moneyline, with the Ravens sitting at +150 to +160 in most locations.

But as we approach the game, we can expect the books to start adjusting the moneyline downwards to cope with the influx of Ravens ML bets. Don’t be shocked if at some point over the weekend, we see the 49ers in the -160 or -165 range, more typical of a three-point favorite, not a four-point favorite. Bettors who favor the 49ers are likely to pounce on that marketplace inefficiency in the 24-48 hours before kickoff.

For professional level bettors, wagering on the Super Bowl is not about side, total or moneyline bets – it’s about the props! Last year’s Patriots/Giants big game matchup generated just shy of $94 million in wagers at Nevada’s sportsbooks; a high percentage of which was on the proposition wagers. This year, sportsbooks are anticipating similar action.

The MGM/Mirage books were the first to open any proposition wagers to the betting public, hanging lines for all four quarters of the game. The sharps pounced all over MGM’s numbers, flipping the plus prices on the two sides. For example, San Francisco opened -0.5 (-125) for the first quarter. Within hours, the 49ers were -0.5 (+115).

Sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback, talking about the flurry of sharp money, right from the get-go. “They pounded us. It was amazing. It was just big bets – limit play, limit play, limit play at every property. Just like sharks.”

But it’s Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH who are the true pioneers; the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here. The LVH numbers were posted this past Thursday, and their 24-page prop booklet features more than 300 additional wagering opportunities.

I was at the Superbook when the numbers were posted, and frankly, most of the sharp bettors in the book seemed to be extremely disappointed in what they found. Here are quotes that I overheard from four different pro bettors who all wished to remain anonymous.

“These are the best prop numbers I’ve ever seen.” “I have more respect for the LVH today than I’ve ever had.” “Jeez, they used to just throw stuff up there; not anymore!” “My goal is to bet as little as possible at the LVH. I want to bet against the dum-dum books.”

But for all the whining and complaining about how good the LVH’s prop sheet was this year, those same pro bettors weren’t shy about laying down limit wagers. Here are some of the most popular wiseguy bets from the LVH this past weekend. If you’re looking for one prevailing theme on these wagers, it’s ‘less offense, more defense’. All props listed are at -110 both ways unless otherwise noted.

Bettors were bearish on Ray Rice. Rice’s rushing yards opened at 66.5, but that was bet down to 63.5. Rice’s rushing yards opened at +11.5 vs. Frank Gore’s rushing yards, bet up to +17.5. The Ravens team rushing total opened at over/under 108.5; bet down to 100.5 by Sunday night. Rice’s receiving yardage total was bet down from 29.5 to 25.5. His longest reception was bet down from 16.5 yards to 14.5 yards, with a +110 on the over. His longest rush was bet down from -14.5 to -13.5. The under 6.5 yards on Rice’s first reception now has a -140 price tag attached. Even Rice’s rushing attempts were bet down from 17.5 to 17.

But while bettors were fading Rice, they were supporting his backfield mate Bernard Pierce. Pierce’s rushing yards total got bet up from 29.5 to 32.5. His longest rush (O/U 9.5 yards) now has a -120 attached to the over and his total receiving yards went from over 1.5 (+140) to over 1.5 (-110).

The LVH wasn’t shy about moving numbers, not just the juice. Torrey Smith’s first reception got bet down from over/under 14.5 yards to O/U 13.5 yards, -120 on the under. Dennis Pitta’s first reception got bet down from 9.5 to 8.5 yards, and his total receiving yards were bet down from 47.5 to 45.5. Frank Gore’s receiving yards went from an opener of 19.5 to the current number of 14.5. LaMichael James' longest rush went from 13.5 to 11.5 with a +110 on the over, and his total rushing yards got bet down from 30.5 to 25.

Many of these bets were ‘arbitrage’ type wagers, as bettors took advantage of the variance in the posted numbers both here in town and offshore. And bettors took their time to read the fine print. LVH ‘total and assisted tackles’ numbers excluded sacks, but included special teams tackles; not the case at some other books. Perhaps that’s a big reason why Terrell Suggs O/U 4.5 tackles went from over -145 to over +110 at the LVH, without a corresponding move elsewhere.

The cross-sports props are always a thought provoking handicap, and we saw early money come on props involving hockey, soccer, basketball and golf.

Barcelona’s Lionel Messi goals opened at -0.5 (-125) vs. Frank Gore touchdowns, bet up to -170. The New York Islanders total points from John Tavares vs. the total number of scores in the last two minutes of the first half went from pk +100 to pk +150. Dwyane Wade points vs. the Raptors opened -4 (-110) vs. Colin Kaepernick completions. Kaepernick +4 now has a -140 price tag attached. Chris Bosh points vs. the largest lead of the Super Bowl went from -0.5 (-110) to -145. And Lee Westwood’s final round score at the Dubai Desert Classic vs Ray Rice rushing yards went from -3 to -5.5.

Let’s not forget special teams! Bettors didn’t touch 49ers kicker David Akers' total points (O/U 7.5), but Baltimore’s Justin Tucker went from 7.5 (U -120) to under -160. And money came on the over for both Sam Koch’s longest punt (56.5 yards, O -130) and Andy Lee’s longest punt (57.5, O -140)

Arguably the single biggest mover from the LVH openers came on the ‘total net yards for both teams’ prop. That number opened at 749.5 and got bet down again and again, currently sitting at 718.5 yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Young QBs struggle in Super Bowl debuts

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will join some elite company when he takes the field for Super Bowl XLVII on Feb. 3.

The Nevada product will have been on this Earth for exactly 25 years and 91 days this Sunday when he takes his first Super Bowl snap and become the sixth-youngest QB to ever play in the big game.

Here’s a look at the five QBs ahead of Kaepernick on the list and how they performed in their respective Super Bowl debuts as youngsters. None of the previous QBs racked up anything close to mind-blowing numbers in their first appearances.

1) Dan Marino - 23 years 127 days

Marino and the Dolphins squared off against the San Francisco 49ers and Joe Montana in Super Bowl XIX. The Dolphins, who had 74 rushing attempts in the previous two weeks, ran the ball only eight times in this game. Marino finished with 29 completions out of 50 attempts for 318 yards, throwing one touchdown pass and two picks. The Dolphins fell 38-16 in what was Marino's only Super Bowl appearance.

2) Ben Roethlisberger - 23 years 340 days

The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl XL 21-10 over the Seattle Seahawks on February 5, 2006. But Roethlisberger had one of the worst passing games of his career, completing just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and two interceptions. His atrocious passer rating of 22.6 was the lowest in Super Bowl history by a winning quarterback. Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to win the Super Bowl, a record previously held by New England’s Tom Brady.

3) David Woodley - 24 years 97 days

The Dolphins had a tough matchup against the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII. At the time, Woodley was the youngest Super Bowl starting quarterback in NFL history when he took the field. Despite starting the game well with a 76-yard touchdown pass to Jimmy Cefalo, Woodley and the entire offense struggled after that, going 0-for-8 passing in the second half. The Redskins won 27-17.

4) Tom Brady - 24 years 184 days

The Patriots were listed by Las Vegas oddsmakers as 14-point underdogs against the NFC champion St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. Brady was named MVP in the 20-17 Patriots victory while throwing for 145 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, becoming the then-youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.

5) Drew Bledsoe - 24 years 347 days

Bledsoe led the Patriots to Super Bowl XXXI, where they lost to the Green Bay Packers by a score of 35-21. Bledsoe completed 25 of 48 passes for 253 yards, with two touchdowns and four interceptions in the loss.

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Can bettors take advantage of Super Bowl ref?

A referee can have a drastic impact on any NFL game, and normally the officiating crew for the Super Bowl every year consists of battle-tested veterans that are accustomed to the pressure of the Big Game.

Jerome Boger, who has never previously officiated a conference championship game or Super Bowl, is the referee assigned to work Super Bowl XLVII. That decision by the NFL is stirring a huge controversy ahead of Sunday’s showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.

Boger, a referee with seven years of experience and two as a line judge, got the nod over veteran referees Ed Hochuli and others with significant playoff and Super Bowl experience, causing many to question the league’s rating system for its officials. But that isn’t what should concern bettors Sunday.

Boger’s crews are notoriously known for cracking down on holding penalties, calling a league-high 18 holding penalties against defensive linemen since 2008. That is about triple the average and six more than Ed Hochuli’s posse. In fact, Boger’s crews have called an alarming 151 offensive holding penalties from 2010-2012. The Ravens were flagged for 18 offensive holding penalties (ninth in the league), while the 49ers were close behind with 17 (12th) this season.

Although Boger loves to blow the whistle on holding, he tends to be more lenient in other aspects of the game. He called an average of 11.42 penalties over 12 games this season - one less than the league average. Boger issued an average of 97.25 penalty yards per game – 8.2 yards below the combined league mark. He was also recently criticized for being too lenient in the next-to-last game of the season between the Raiders and Panthers. Carolina QB Cam Newton bumped Boger while disputing a call. Newton was penalized but not ejected because Boger said he didn't feel the bump was enough to warrant an ejection, as the rules require.

This is important to note because both the Ravens and Niners have a reputation for being “dirty” teams. Baltimore racked up a league-high 1,127 penalty yards and San Francisco was wrung up for 960 due to flags this season. The Ravens had the most unnecessary roughness calls (14) in the league and were also flagged for four roughing the passer penalties. San Francisco wasn’t far behind with 12 unnecessary roughness fouls to its credit. It will be interesting to see if Boger exhibits the same laid-back demeanor Sunday and if both teams will take advantage of it.

A few more important notes about Boger:

- He has officiated two games involving the 49ers this season and the Niners put up 45 points in both of them. Boger was in control of San Francisco’s 45-3 thumping of Buffalo in Week 5 and was also the main man for the Niners’ 45-31 win over Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both of those games played over their respective totals.

- Teams played over the total in seven of Boger’s 12 games officiated this season and combined for an average of 42.8 points per game. The total is currently set at 47 for Sunday's game.

- After a 26-3 win over San Francisco in Week 6, New York Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride suggested 49ers defensive lineman Justin Smith "gets away with murder" by holding opponents to free up outside linebacker Aldon Smith for sacks. Expect Boger to have a keen eye on Smith Sunday.

- Boger will not be working with his regular crew Super Bowl Sunday. The seven-man crew has a combined 77 years of officiating experience and 50 combined playoff assignments.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, February 3

Super Bowl, New Orleans
We talked two weeks ago about success #4 seeds have in conference title games; well, since 1990, six #4 seeds made it to a Super Bowl- the last five went 5-0 vs spread, going 3-2 SU (Buffalo got crushed in '92). #4 seeds are division winner with worst record in conference, but they get in the tournament, get a home game in first round, and they've done well. Baltimore is a #4 seed.

I'm disregarding Baltimore's 16-6 win over the 49ers LY, since it was a Thursday game, so Niners had long trip on very short prep, an impossible situation.

49ers have advantage of having played in Superdome this year, winning 31-21 in Week 12 game; Ravens have only one game ever in this building, back in '06. San Francisco is 3-2 in domed stadiums this year; Ravens lost 43-13 at Houston, in their only dome game this year.

This is only 5th Super Bowl since 1990 with neither #1 seed, but 3rd in last five years; three of other four were decided by 7 or less points. NFC teams are 4-1 in last five Super Bowls, underdogs covering four of those five games.

Both teams looked dead during the playoffs; 49ers were down 17-0 in Atlanta in NFC title game, Ravens needed a ridiculous 70-yard bomb to tie game at Denver in last minute. Kaepernick had never started a game before this season, he is the 4th Super Bowl QB to say that-- two of first three won that first game.

NFC is generally better than the AFC, 49ers are higher-seeded team in the better half of the league, so logic dictates they'll win, but one red flag for the 49ers is their kicker, David Akers, who has had a bad year. Baltimore has a terrific kicker in rookie Tucker. I'm predicting the first overtime game in Super Bowl history, with the Ravens winning, 23-20.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl action report: Lines getting longer, 49ers money rolling in

Action on the Super Bowl is starting to pick up Friday afternoon as tourist roll into Las Vegas and online books watch their servers hum with the flood of Big Game bets.

We chat with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook supervisor at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, and Aron Black of Bet365.com as we head into the Super Bowl weekend.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Bets slowly rolled in over the past two weeks, but lines are getting longer at Las Vegas sportsbooks and the majority of those bettors are putting their money down on the San Francisco 49ers.

Books expected this push from the public after taking one-sided action on the Baltimore Ravens for nearly two weeks. The MGM Mirage is dealing the 49ers -3.5 (-120) and is bracing for some big bets, which had to be approved, to come in.

“Right now we’re getting more San Francisco money, but we’re waiting on some larger wagers to come in and we don’t know who they’re betting,” says Stoneback, referring to some renowned casino players and guests expected to flirt with seven-figure wagers Sunday. “Those will make an impact.”

As for the total, both Nevada and online books expect a lean towards the over in the hours before kickoff. Stoneback believes the total, which stands at 47.5, could get as high as 49 before sharps buyback on the under.

The futures odds are an interesting market for most sportsbooks. San Francisco entered the season as the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl and has drawn a lot more attention in the second half of the NFL season.

“Futures wise, we want Baltimore,” Black told Covers. “San Francisco has been heavily backed all season, which died down when Smith went out. But with Kaepernick’s performances and San Francisco winning, they were very popular for the Super Bowl book going into the playoffs.”

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47 great betting notes for Super Bowl XLVII


We're just a few days away from Super Bowl XLVII so it's time to really buckle down and get focused on your bets. We put together a list of the best 47 Super Bowl betting notes we could find to help you with your handicapping down the stretch.

Super Bowl/Prop Betting Notes

1. The loser has scored exactly 10 points in four of the six previous Super Bowls at the Superdome.

2. The average margin of victory in those six games at the Superdome was 22 points, thanks to blowouts conducted by arguably the two greatest teams of all time: the 1989 San Francisco 49ers and the 1985 Chicago Bears. The last Super Bowl played in New Orleans, however, was the razor-thin 20-17 New England victory over St. Louis in 2002. (note via cbc.ca)

3. As NFL head coaches, neither Harbaugh has lost a game following a bye week including the playoffs. John is 6-0; Jim is 3-0-1.

4. Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

5. Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

6. The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS.

7. The over is 3-2 in San Francisco's last five trips to the Super Bowl. The Ravens covered the over by themselves against the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.

8. The last running back to be Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis (Broncos 1998). Since then nine QBs, three WRs, and two defensive players have won MVP.

9. The Super Bowl coin toss is one of the most popular prop bets every year. 'Heads' has been the right call in the last four Super Bowls and five of the last six.

10. Until last season, when New England won the flip, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip each of the previous 14 years. (Marc Lawrence)

11. Over the previous 46 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 19 times.

12. In the past 20 years, 17 Super Bowls have been won by the team that hails from the city with the lower unemployment rate. It would seem a win for the Ravens is a slam dunk then with Baltimore's 7.2 percent rate trumping San Francisco's 8.2 percent rate. (Fox Sports)

13. Tecmo Bowl, the football arcade game originally released in 1988, predicted a 49ers 37-17 victory in a simulated Super Bowl game recently conducted by a group called The TecmoBowlers.

14. The Super Bowl record for the team that scores first is 30-16 SU.

Action Betting Notes

15. The most action wagered in Nevada on a Super Bowl came in 2006 when $94.5 million was taken in for the Seahawks-Steelers game. The books won nearly $9 million in Pittsburgh's 21-10 victory - a win percentage or hold of 9.3 percent. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

16. The only time Nevada sportsbooks lost money on the Super Bowl in the past 10 years was the 2008 game between the Giants and Patriots. They lost a combined $2.6 million in total (-2.8 percent hold) in the Giants' 21-17 victory. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

17. Teddy Covers: "I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff."

18. John Avello, executive director of sports and racing at the Wynn Las Vegas says about 20 percent of the total Super Bowl handle will be from prop bets.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Notes

19. San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has improved against added pressure during the postseason, primarily because he is making quicker decisions. He held onto the football for 3.8 seconds before passing, taking a sack or scrambling in the regular season when facing five or more pass rushers (league average: 3.4 seconds). That has dipped to 2.8 seconds in the postseason, and the result has been a 98.9 total quarterback rating (out of 100).

20. Super Bowl XLVII will end a streak of five straight title games where at least one quarterback had Super Bowl experience (ESPN Stats and Info).

21. The 49ers feature nearly twice as many former first-round picks (15) than the Ravens (8). (ESPN Stats and Info)

22. The NFC has won three straight Super Bowls. The last time the NFC won four in a row was streak of 13 straight Super Bowl wins from 1984-96.

23. Thirty-nine of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned top-10 ranked defenses.

24. While clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

25. The 49ers are 5-0 all-time in the Super Bowl. They are the only franchise with more than one Super Bowl appearance without a loss.

26. San Francisco needs a win Sunday to tie Pittsburgh as the only franchises to win six Super Bowls.

27. The 49ers' Vernon Davis has the most receiving yards per game (110.5) by a tight end in postseason history.

28. The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt. He is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

29. Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

30. The over is 6-0 in San Francisco's last six games overall.

31. San Francisco had the No. 3 total defense in the league this year, the No. 2 scoring defense, the No. 2 rushing defense and the No. 4 passing defense in the regular season.

32. The 49ers are averaging significantly more yards and points in all those categories in the playoffs, except for rushing yards per game, where they're giving up about two fewer yards per game than in the regular season.

33. The Niners have greatly increased the use of the option their two playoff games, running the play 29 times while averaging 8.4 yards per rush with four touchdowns. (ESPN Stats & Info)

34. The San Francisco 49ers have outscored opponents 114-58 in the third quarter this season.

35. The Niners have been outscored 64-78 by their opposition in the first quarter this season.

36. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Notes

37. Ray Rice is averaging 21.3 carries per game this postseason. The Ravens are 21-3 when he starts and gets more than 20 carries.

38. The Ravens lead the all-time series with the 49ers 3-1 and have won three straight. The last two Ravens-49ers games have had a combined two TDs scored.

39. The Ravens are 7-1 all-time as the No. 4 seed. Their previous Super Bowl win in 2001 came as a No. 4 seed. Baltimore boasts a 13-7 record in the postseason, the best win percentage of any franchise.

40. The Ravens have allowed only two passing TDs to tight ends this season (including the playoffs) - the fewest TDs allowed to tight ends this season.

41. Baltimore's only Super Bowl appearance was in 2001, which was one of the most profitable Super Bowls for sportsbooks (16.3% win percentage) over the past 12 seasons. The Ravens were favored by three points in their 34-7 win over the Giants.

42. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.

43. The Ravens had to play in three playoff games prior to the Super Bowl, while San Francisco has only had to play in two. Five of the last seven Super Bowl winners had to play in the Wild Card round.

44. With eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, Joe Flacco has a shot to tie or break Joe Montana's record for most touchdown passes without throwing an interception in a single postseason. (ESPN Stats & Info)

45. Every quarterback who has finished a postseason throwing at least eight touchdowns without a pick has not only won the Super Bowl, but also the Super Bowl MVP. (ESPN Stats & Info)

46. The Ravens are 10-5 in road/neutral playoff games - the best win percentage of any franchise. (ESPN Stats and Info)

47. Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition, while managing to bounce back and dominate in the fourth quarter.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl action report: Books could see spread as high as 4.5


The betting public tends to gravitate toward the favorite and the over in the big games, and there is no game bigger than Super Bowl XLVII.

With kickoff just over 24 hours away, that one-sided wave of action on the San Francisco 49ers has pushed most sportsbook to move the spread for Sunday’s Big Game to Niners -4. If this trend continues, the spread could get close to its original number when the odds were released on Jan. 20.

“We were even for the first week and a half but the last few days the San Francisco money started to take over,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, told Covers. “We were at -3.5 for about 10 days but went to -4 late (Friday) morning. I expect it to close at -4.5 at most places with a few at -4.”

Online books are seeing similar betting patterns, with money leaning toward the favorite. However, while they do think the spread has a chance at -4.5, they expect sharp money to buy back the Ravens at the inflated spread.

“Definitely seems to be headed that way,” Dave Mason of BetOnline.ag told Covers. “Just took a couple sharp bets on San Francisco moneyline. They are now up to -180. My guess it will close four, with a good shot at 4.5. Would be surprised if it closes 3.5.”

As for action on the total, the tourists pouring into Sin City will likely be attaching the over to their San Francisco bets with some books expecting the number to climb as high as 49 before bettors come back on the under.

“After the first wave of under money it’s been nothing but over,” says Kornegay. “We expect that to continue and we’ll close the total at 48.5.”