The Bum's 2013 NFL Playoffs and SuperBowl Best Bets !

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NFL expert bloggers give one reason to bet their wild card team

Handicapping the NFL playoffs isn't easy. Luckily, we recruited the help of the people who know this weekend's teams the best - the bloggers that have been keeping close tabs all season long.

We asked all eight bloggers to give bettors one reason to back their respective teams in the opening round of the playoffs:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5, 43)





Why the Bengals will cover

Mickey Mentzer owns WhoDeyFans.com. You can follow him on twitter at @whodeyfans and hear him every Wednesday on the WhoDey Weekly podcast presented by SPNT.TV.

The Bengals are in the Top 3 for sacks this season and this is largely because of the play of the Bengals defensive line. The front four generated 42 of the their 51 sacks (that alone is better than 25 other NFL teams). And the rest of the Bengals defense is pretty good too. In the last eight games, the Bengals have gone 7-1 SU. They’ve allowed 12.8 points per game and their one loss was by a single point. In the last three games, the defense has nine turnovers, nine sacks and three touchdowns.

Why the Texans will cover

Stephanie Stradley writes TexansChick, a blog for the Houston Chronicle. You can follow her on Twitter @StephStradley and check out her blog at StephStradley.com.

The Texans penalties down the stretch are much higher than earlier in the season. For the last five games, they've averaged around nine penalties when they normally average about five. The Texans’ penalty averages at home are less than on the road - 5.5 at home, compared to 8 on the road. Not surprisingly, the Bengals penalties are higher on the road with an average of 7.2. In a closely matched game, where the difference can be a few plays, penalties could be the difference maker. Reliant Stadium can be very loud because of the roof and proximity of the seats, and will be especially raucous for the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 46)





Why the Vikings will cover

PJD writes for the Purple Jesus Diaries. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @PJDiaries.

The Vikings will – or could - beat the Packers this weekend because these teams know each other too well. Adrian Peterson on the ground will prevent a Packers’ blowout win and rookie Blair Walsh will make the difference in a tight game, where Mason Crosby’s risky leg will fail. Expect a tight contest, with a close Vikings win.

Why the Packers will cover

Ray Rivard is the editor of Lombardi Ave. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @lombardiave.

Aaron Rodgers will continue to take four or five sacks in Saturday's game, but that doesn't matter. He will get right up and throw for a first down time and time again. Playing at Lambeau Field on a cold Saturday night won't matter, it will be a boost for him. Losing to the Vikings in the final game of the season to force a Wild Card Weekend showdown will only make the chip on his shoulder heavier. He will come out and play his best game of the season. He will record a minimum of three touchdown passes and 300 yards.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 47)





Why the Colts will cover

Greg Cowan is the managing editor for Colts Authority. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @coltsauthority and @ca_radio.

Those wanting a reason to bet on Indianapolis should look no further than the Colts' sideline. Not only has head coach Chuck Pagano instilled a never-quit mindset, but no one knows the Ravens better than Pagano and OC Bruce Arians. Pagano served on the Ravens' defensive staff from 2008-2011 and Arians prepared for the Ravens twice a season as Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator from 2007-2011. Their never-quit attitude and knowledge of their opponent should give bettors confidence in the Colts.

Why the Ravens cover

Justin Silberman writes for Ravens24x7.com/ Russellstreetreport.com. You can follow him on twitter at @RussellStReport and @Jsilbe3.

Joe Flacco finds himself in the middle of the elite quarterback discussion – is he or isn’t he? One thing is for sure: Flacco is an elite quarterback at M&T Bank Stadium, the site of Sunday’s game against the Colts. In eight home games this year, Flacco completed 176 of 283 passes for 2,363 yards, 15 touchdowns, five interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 99.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+3, 46)





Why the Seahawks cover the spread

Rob Davies writes for Field Gulls. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @FieldGulls.

Russell Wilson will be the difference Sunday. The Rams' pass rush was a true test last week and it was perfect preparation for FedExField and a hostile environment. His continued mastery of the read-option, in conjunction with Marshawn Lynch, will keep a good Redskins run defense on their toes and open up the passing game. Plainly, Wilson doesn't get rattled and the extraordinary start to his career will last at least another week.

Why the Redskins cover the spread

Kevin Ewoldt is the managing editor for Hogs Haven. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @HogsHaven.

Before dumping all your money on the Seahawks, first consider this: The Seahawks are 3-5 on the road this year while the Redskins have won their last four home games and are 5-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.

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Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Wildcard Weekend
Four big games this weekend as the NFL playoffs officially get underway. We’re going to take a look in this report at what Sharps have been betting in all four games to this point in the week. We’ll also outline the best expectations for what Sharps would do on game day if public money moves any numbers before kickoff.

Let’s take the games in schedule order…

CINCINNATI at HOUSTON

Opening Line: Houston by 5, total of 44

Lowest Line: Houston by 4

Current Line: Houston by 4.5, total of 43

Games in the pocket between the three and the seven on the Vegas board sometimes take awhile to get settled because there’s no clear “percentage” play involving a key number. If betting action is dormant, sportsbooks are known to move the line a half point in either direction just to see if they get any nibbles. Sportsbooks can’t make money if nobody’s betting!

Generally speaking, Sharps aren’t enthusiastic about either team here. Those who preferred the dog took Cincinnati at the opener because they didn’t think slumping Houston would go up any higher than five. Those who don’t trust Cincinnati made small investments when the line dropped down to the four.

Sharps did prefer the Under at 44 because we have decent defenses on the field, and because Houston’s offense has slumped in recent weeks. They may not be any additional move downward because weather won’t help defenses in this stadium that has a retractable roof.

You can expect Sharps to fade any public moves, particularly if squares hit the favorite and drive the number up to five or six. This doesn’t seem likely. Sportsbooks themselves would be comfortable with a position against a publicly bet favorite.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY

Opening Line: Green Bay by 9, total of 46

Current Line: Green Bay by 7.5, total of 46

There are some stores that opened Green Bay at -8 rather than -9. The earliest on the board had the nine. Sharps hit the dog right away, encouraging stragglers to post an eight. Sharps have still bet the dog at +8, and may continue to do so all the way down to the key number of seven. There may not be a sense of urgency to do that for dog lovers here because the public may bet the favorite on game day. Remember, this is a night game, so there’s plenty of time for square action to influence the number.
Sharps are very much impressed with Adrian Peterson’s ability to control a game at the moment. And, they’re also skeptical about Green Bay’s pass protection. Minnesota just missed covering on this field a few weeks ago, and is playing better now overall than they were back then. The Vikings are the Sharp side at anything over a touchdown.

The total hasn’t moved even though the game is being played outdoors in cold weather. Sharps believe Green Bay is comfortable in these conditions. And, they’ve seen that the Vikings can put points on the board with their ground-based attack. If the possibility of precipitation enters the forecast, you will see some Under money hit the board. No Sharp interest at the number of 46 with the current forecast.

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE

Opening Line: Baltimore by 6.5, total of 46.5

Current Line: Baltimore by 7, total of 47

Normally Sharps prefer underdogs of more than a field goal in the playoffs because the games are likely to be competitive…and because sportsbooks typically shade lines higher based on public preferences. In this case, we had a line move UP anyway. If you were watching the lines this week, you know that the interest in Baltimore was keyed to the Ray Lewis announcement that this would be his final season. Sharps often “bet the news” when it happens just to have position before the public. If the Lewis announcement motivates the Ravens, they’re likely to play better than had been previously expected.

Is this the Sharp view?

Much of that Sharp money was more about position than sentiment for the Ravens. Sharps figured the public would buy into the motivation angle, possibly causing the line to move beyond the seven and set up middle possibilities around a key number.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be bought back with Indy +7 even if the public doesn’t take the bait. Sharps who liked Indy can even come back over the top for more units than their initial investment.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be really valuable if Indy +7.5 or higher becomes available. Sharps who like the dog can come back over the top, and would sweep all bets if the Ravens won by exactly seven.

There are some Sharps who are skeptical about Andrew Luck’s ability to avoid turnovers on the road. They’re sticking with Baltimore -6.5.

There’s no interest on the total yet. Weather is supposed to be relatively clear, with wind in the single digits in mph. Sharps would look at the Under if the forecast changes to something that would help defenses more.



SEATTLE at WASHINGTON

Opening Line: Seattle by 1.5, total of 45

Current Line: Seattle by 3, total of 46

This was the biggest Sharp move of the weekend in the NFL, with the Wise Guys hitting Seattle at the opener…then driving it all the way up to the key number. The lack of buy-back on Washington as a home dog at the key number tells you there’s a lot of support for the Seahawks. This is not shaping up as a tug-of-war situation between different factions of Sharps with the favorite at -2.5 and the dog at +3.

Oddsmakers knew the Sharps had great respect for Seattle. They thought opening the Seahawks as a road favorite would be enough to stem the tide of Sharp money. Turns out the line needed to be at a field goal.

Who will the public take here? Typically squares prefer the favorites. But, that may be tougher for them here because it’s a ROAD favorite laying points to a celebrated home quarterback. It’s possible that the public will come in on Washington before kickoff. And, since this is the last game of the weekend, it will be the most bet game of the weekend because of the additional lead-in time. We COULD see a tug-of-war between Sharps and squares if public sentiment is on the dog. The Wise Guys would gladly fade any move back to -2.5.

The best expectation is for a heavily bet game that sportsbooks hope doesn’t land exactly on Seattle by three.

The total has been bet up from 45 to 46 because weather conditions should be fine (the game’s not far from Baltimore!), and both offenses have established that they can move the ball with their exciting young quarterbacks. There are concerns about the field surface in Washington though, which has prevented a move any higher than 46 as of yet.

That’s how the sharps have been betting in the NFL.

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NFL Consensus Picks

January 5, 2013

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

4:30 PM Cincinnati +4 2650 49.39% Houston -4 2715 50.61% View View

8:00 PM Minnesota +9.5 3303 63.91% Green Bay -9.5 1865 36.09% View View


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Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

4:30 PM Cincinnati 42.5 Houston 2463 56.08% 1929 43.92% View View

8:00 PM Minnesota 45.5 Green Bay 2771 65.09% 1486 34.91% View View


Games are highlighted when more than 59% of all cash contests players choose outcome. See our FAQ page for details.

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Saturday, January 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 4:30 PM ET Cincinnati +4 500

Houston - Under 42.5 500

[Kaptain]

gl in the Bengals game BUM

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks Kapt......

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Sunday's NFL Tip Sheet

January 5, 2013


**Colts at Ravens**

--As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Baltimore (10-6 straight up, 6-9-1 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 47. Gamblers can back the Colts on the money line for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

--This game took on added importance with Wednesday’s announcement from Ray Lewis that ‘this would be his last ride.’ Lewis, one of the NFL’s all-time greats with 12 Pro-Bowl selections, will be back in uniform for the first time since tearing his right triceps muscle in Week 6.

--John Harbaugh’s team limped down the stretch with four losses both SU and ATS in its last five games. However, last week’s 23-17 loss at Cincinnati shouldn’t be held against the Ravens, who rested most of their key starters in the last three quarters.

--Indianapolis (11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS) has enjoyed a storybook season. The organization made the painful decision to release franchise icon Peyton Manning following a 2-14 campaign that Manning spent on injured reserve with a neck injury. With the chance to take Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick, the Colts cleaned house for the most part. They brought in new head coach Chuck Pagano and long-time Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. In addition to Luck, Indy found a slew of draft-day games like TE Dwayne Allen, TE Coby Fleener, RB Vick Ballard, WR T.Y. Hilton and WR LaVon Brazill. Indy didn’t go with a complete youth movement, however, keeping around solid veterans like WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney and DE Robert Mathis.

--The result has been a nine-game turnaround for the Colts, who have been motivated by Pagano’s personal battle through leukemia after being diagnosed in September. The former Ravens defensive coordinator returned to the sidelines for the first time in last week’s 28-16 win over Houston as a 6 ½-point home underdog.

--Luck has had his ups and downs and his overall numbers aren’t overly impressive. The Stanford producing has only completed 54.1 percent of his passes and has been intercepted 18 times. However, he has five touchdowns without an interception in the last three games. Luck threw for 4,374 yards and 23 TD passes during the regular season. He also rushed for five scores.

--In Arians’s new offense, Wayne has been used much like Hines Ward was utilized in the same system in Pittsburgh. Wayne has produced 106 catches for 1,355 yards and five TDs. Hilton has a team-high eight TDs and 1,308 all-purpose yards.

--Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco threw for 3,817 yards with a 22/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 13 TD passes compared to four interceptions in the last nine games.

--Ray Rice is the Ravens’ best offensive weapon. The former Rutgers star rushed for 1,143 yards and nine TDs while also hauling in 61 receptions for 478 yards and one TD.

--The Ravens struggled to a 2-4 ATS record in six games as home favorites. With that said, they are 19-14-2 ATS in 35 games as home ‘chalk’ during John Harbaugh’s five-year tenure.

--Baltimore has won six of its eight home games but is just 3-5 versus the number. Meanwhile, Indy is 4-4 both SU and ATS on the road.

--The ‘under’ is 10-6 overall for the Colts, 4-4 in their road assignments. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in three consecutive games.

--The ‘over’ is 9-7 overall for the Ravens, 6-2 in their home games.

--Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Seahawks at Redskins**

--As of Friday night, most spots had Seattle (11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 46 for ‘over/under’ wagers. Bettors can take the Redskins to win outright for a plus-130 payout (risk $100 to win $130).

--Washington (10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS) has won seven in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s 28-18 win over Dallas to clinch the NFC East. The Redskins took the money as three-point favorites thanks to a one-yard TD plunge from Alfred Morris with 1:02 remaining. Robert Griffin III ran for 63 yards and one TD while completing 9-of-18 throws for 100 yards. Most important, RG3 didn’t commit a turnover and the ‘Skins won the takeaway battle 3-0.

--Seattle is on fire, winning five straight games and seven of its last eight. The Seahawks are getting it done with defense and running the football. They are tops in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up only 15.3 points per game. They are third in rushing behind 1,590 yards from Marshawn Lynch, who has 12 rushing TDs and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average.

--Like Washington, Seattle is in the playoffs with a rookie quarterback. Russell Wilson, the former minor-league baseball player who was a star at North Carolina St. and Wisconsin in college, has steadily improved all year. Wilson has connected on 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,118 yards with a 26/10 TD-INT ratio. He is also a threat with his legs, evidenced by 489 rushing yards and four scores.

--Wilson distributes the wealth with balance. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate have seven TD catches apiece and have combined for 95 receptions for more than 1,400 yards. Veteran TE Zach Miller has 38 grabs for 396 yards and three TDs.

--Robert Griffin III has lit a fuse within the Redskins organization, one that has suffered badly throughout Dan Snyder’s tumultuous reign as owner. RG3 has been dynamic from Week 1 when he led his team to a 40-32 win at New Orleans. For the year, Griffin completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 3,200 yards with a 20/5 TD-INT ratio. He has an 8/1 TD-INT ratio at home. RG3 has rushed for 815 yards and seven TDs.

--The presence of Griffin has helped open things up for Morris, who exploded for 1,610 rushing yards and 13 TDs during the regular season. Morris averages 4.8 YPC.

--Mike Shanahan’s squad has been an underdog nine times, compiling a 7-2 spread record with six outright victories. The ‘Skins are 2-1 both SU and ATS as home underdogs this season. On Shanahan’s watch the last three years, they are 8-7-2 as home ‘dogs.

--Seattle won outright in only three of its eight road assignments. The Seahawks went 1-3 both SU and ATS in their four games as road favorites. As road ‘chalk’ under Carroll in three seasons, they own a 1-4 spread record.

--The ‘over’ is 9-7 overall for Washington, but the ‘under’ is 5-3 in its home games. The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in the Redskins’ last four contests.

--The ‘over’ is on a 7-2 roll in Seattle’s last nine games. Nevertheless, totals have been a wash for the ‘Hawks both overall (8-8) and on the road (4-4).

--FOX will provide television coverage at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Wild Card Round

Sunday, January 6

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Colts at Ravens: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 47)

Chuck Pagano's battle against leukemia has been one of the most inspirational storylines of the NFL season. For the visiting Indianapolis Colts to continue their spirited campaign, they'll need to upend Pagano's former team in the fourth-seeded Baltimore Ravens during Sunday's wild-card matchup. The Ravens are fueled by their own inspiration after future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis announced that he will retire at the conclusion of the season.

Baltimore enters the contest having lost four of its last five, although coach John Harbaugh elected to rest most of his starters in a 23-17 loss to Cincinnati last week. While Joe Flacco was given the majority of the day off versus the Bengals, rookie Andrew Luck is cruising into the postseason on a high. The top overall pick has thrown five touchdowns without an interception in his last three games - and the Colts have won nine of 11 following their 28-16 triumph over AFC South champion Houston.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Ravens -7, O/U 47

CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like Indy to cover and 55 percent are on the under.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5): With nine more wins than the 2011 campaign, Indianapolis posted the NFL's third-best turnaround in history. Luck has played a significant role in the Colts' resurgence, having led them on seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter over overtime. His 4,374 yards are the most by a rookie quarterback. Bruce Arians has guided the team in the absence of Pagano, who was a defensive assistant coach for four years with Baltimore and defensive coordinator in 2011.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-6): Lewis has been sidelined 10 games with a torn right triceps, but the two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year expects to play on Sunday. How much he'll play is in limbo, but wide receiver Anquan Boldin will be on the field after his one-week hiatus with a bruised shoulder. Boldin has fared well versus Indianapolis, collecting 19 receptions for 221 yards and a touchdown in three career games. Ray Rice rushed for 103 yards and a score and added six receptions in a 24-10 win over the Colts on Dec. 11, 2011.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Colts are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Flacco has struggled in three meetings versus Indianapolis, throwing a total of five interceptions - including two in a 20-3 divisional playoff loss at Lucas Oil Stadium three years ago.

2. Jim Caldwell, who was Indianapolis' coach from 2009-11, is now Baltimore's offensive coordinator.

3. The Colts have yielded 374.3 total yards per contest, which ranks 26th in the league.

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NFL

Wild Card Round

Sunday, January 6

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Seahawks at Redskins: What bettors need to know
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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (3, 46)

The Washington Redskins mortgaged their future last year to trade up and take Robert Griffin III with the No. 2 overall draft pick. Despite the hype, few could have anticipated that Griffin would provide such an immediate dividend. The Redskins closed the season with seven consecutive wins to claim the NFC East title and secure their first playoff berth since 2007. Yet, when Washington takes the field to host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon in the wild-card round, there is debate in some circles as to whether Griffin will even be the best rookie quarterback on the field.

Unheralded third-round selection Russell Wilson has played brilliantly in piloting the Seahawks to five straight wins to set up the second postseason matchup in league history - and the second in as many years - featuring rookie starting QBs. As befitting his draft status, Griffin received more hype due to his all-around skills, but Wilson closed with a rush and threw more touchdown passes (26 to 20) than his counterpart. One stat which illustrates the success of both players: Griffin and Wilson finished third and fourth in passer rating at 102.4 and 100.0, respectively,

TV: 4:30 p.m.ET, FOX.

LINE: Seahawks -3, O/U 46

CONSENSUS: Over 51 percent of Covers Consensus players like Seattle to cover and 51 percent are on the under.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the SSW.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (11-5): Seattle closed the season with a 20-13 victory over St. Louis, but it was a dominating three-game stretch prior to that victory that opened eyes coast-to-coast. The Seahawks annihilated San Francisco, Buffalo and Arizona by a combined 150-30, becoming the first team in 62 years to amass that many points in a three-game stretch. Wilson threw 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions over the final eight games and running back Marshawn Lynch churned out ten 100-yard games - including four straight to close the season - to finish third in the league with 1,590 yards. Seattle was equally impressive on the other side of the ball, surrendering a league-low 15.3 points per game. The Seahawks will get a boost in the secondary when starting CB Brandon Browner returns from a four-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (10-6): Griffin set a rookie record with 815 rushing yards but is still dealing with a sprained knee ligament that caused him to sit out a game and limited his mobility in season-ending wins over Philadelphia and Dallas. He threw for only 100 yards against the Cowboys, although he still managed to run for 63 yards and a score. Like Wilson, Griffin has a hard-charging running back to lean on in fellow rookie Alfred Morris, a sixth-round pick out of Florida Atlantic. Morris finished second in the league with 1,613 yards and capped off the regular season by running over the Cowboys for 200 yards and three touchdowns. Washington's defense is vulnerable against the pass (281.9 yards), ranking 30th in the league, but was fifth against the run (95.8). It has steadily improved in the second half, allowing an average of eight fewer points over the final eight games.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Redskins are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Seahawks’ last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Washington.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Seahawks defeated the Redskins in the playoffs in 2005 and 2007, but they have lost eight straight postseason games on the road.

2. Washington rallied from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to win in Seattle 23-17 in November 2011.

3. Wilson was named the league's rookie of the month for December. Griffin claimed the monthly honor in September and November

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NFL Playoff Preview: Colts at Ravens

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)

at BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-6)


AFC Wild Card Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -6.5, Total: 46

Indianapolis tries to extend its amazing season when it visits AFC North champion Baltimore on Sunday afternoon in the first round of the NFL playoffs.

The Colts finished out the year winning nine of 11 (SU and ATS), including last week’s impressive home win that knocked the Texans out of the AFC’s top spot. They were not particularly strong on the road this year though, where they went 4-4 (SU and ATS), but 0-3 against teams that finished 2012 with a winning record. Baltimore was 6-2 SU, but only 3-5 ATS at home this year. They had offensive issues all season and this will be just the fourth game as offensive coordinator for Jim Caldwell. After a strong showing against the Giants, they opted against using their starters in the regular season finale, a 23-17 loss to the Bengals.

Can the Colts pull off the upset in Baltimore on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Colts QB Andrew Luck has put together a terrific rookie season with 4,374 passing yards (7.0 YPA) and 23 TD, but also 18 INT. He's thrown 13 of these picks on the road where he carries a subpar 70.1 rating. The Ravens have an average passing defense with all the injuries in their secondary, as they allow 228 passing YPG (17th in NFL). Their biggest concern on Sunday will be Colts top WR Reggie Wayne, who has caught 106 passes for 1,355 yards and 5 TD this season. Rookie WR T.Y. Hilton has also come on strong with four 100-yard games in his past nine contests, including 111 yards and a touchdown in the regular season finale win over Houston. Baltimore's run defense isn't special (123 YPG allowed, 20th in NFL), but it has held its past two opponents to 114 yards combined on 35 carries (3.3 YPC). RB Vick Ballard has been the team's main ball carrier in the past four weeks with 84 rushing attempts (21.0 per game), resulting in 346 yards (4.1 YPC). Although the Colts have been turnover-prone this season with 27 giveaways and a minus-12 TO ratio, they have played turnover-free football in the past two games, posting a +5 TO ratio.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco has won at least one playoff game in each of his four NFL seasons, but he hasn't always been great in these postseason contests, throwing for 1,532 yards (170 YPG, 6.2 YPA), 8 TD and 8 INT, equaling a subpar 70.4 passer rating. One of his worst playoff games came against Indy after the 2009 season when he completed just 20-of-35 throws for 189 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT (48.4 passer rating). But like Luck, Flacco has been much more productive at home (99.0 rating, 8.3 YPA, 15 TD, 5 INT) than on the road (74.9 rating, 5.9 YPA, 7 TD, 5 INT). More good news is that top WR Anquan Boldin (921 rec. yds) is set to return from a shoulder injury and No. 2 wideout Torrey Smith (855 rec. yds) is also healthy. This duo should be able to get open against Indy's 21st-ranked passing defense (237 YPG). RB Ray Rice is still the focal point of this offense, but he hasn't done much in the past two postseasons with just 216 yards on 71 carries (3.0 YPC) and 1 TD in these four games. However, in his last full game with Jim Caldwell calling the shots, Rice gained 158 total yards in a 33-14 thumping of the Giants. He should also be able to find holes to run through against a Colts defense giving up the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season (138 YPG). The Ravens have committed just 16 turnovers, which ties them for the second-fewest in the NFL.

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NFL Playoff Preview: Seahawks at Redskins

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-5)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (10-6)


NFC Wild Card Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -3, Total: 46

Two teams riding long winning streaks meet on Sunday in the first round of the NFC playoffs when Seattle visits Washington.

The Redskins earned their seventh consecutive win last week, though QB Robert Griffin III (knee) clearly wasn’t 100 percent. Griffin threw for 100 yards and ran for 63 in the win, as the Redskins had to lean heavily on rookie RB Alfred Morris (200 yards, 3 TD). The Seahawks come into this game as the NFL’s hottest team, going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in December and outscoring opponents 193-60 in those games. They have been less impressive on the road this year, where they’re 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS. But they won their last two road games, a blowout over the Bills in Toronto and an overtime win at Chicago.

Which team will extend its winning streak on Sunday afternoon? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has been outstanding in the second half of the season, winning seven of eight games with a 67% completion rate, 9.0 YPA, 16 TD and 2 INT, equaling an impressive 120.3 passer rating. He's also rushed for 361 yards and 4 TD in these eight contests. RB Marshawn Lynch has certainly lived up to his "Beast Mode" nickname down the stretch with eight 100-yard efforts in his past 10 games, including four in a row. Lynch was a monster in his first career playoff game in Jan. 2011, rushing for 131 yards on just 19 carries, including a highlight reel, 67-yard touchdown run in a 41-36 win over the Saints. But in the next game, he carried the football just four times for two yards. The Redskins have an excellent rushing defense (95.8 YPG, 5th in NFL), but they have been burned through the air constantly, allowing 282 passing YPG (3rd-worst in NFL). The good news for Washington is that CB Cedric Griffin is eligible to play after serving a suspension for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. But Seattle has great depth in its receiving corps with eight players catching more than a dozen passes this year, led by Sidney Rice (50 rec, 748 yds, 7 TD) and Golden Tate (45 rec, 688 yds, 7 TD).

Robert Griffin III has thrown just one interception in 190 pass attempts on his home field this season, but has just 8 TD passes in these eight games, compared to 12 TD tosses in seven road games. Although he's clearly been bothered by his knee injury, Griffin is still completing 66% of his passes for 9.2 YPA, 12 TD and 2 INT in the past six games, equaling a 119.4 rating. Griffin gets all the hype, but rookie RB Alfred Morris has been tremendous in the past six games, galloping for 744 yards (124 YPG) and 8 TD. He'll have his work cut out for him though as Seattle ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing defense (103 YPG). If Morris cannot be effective, the Redskins will try to throw the football, but that could be even more dangerous against Seattle's sixth-ranked passing defense (203 YPG allowed). The Seahawks defense has 18 interceptions while allowing just 15 TD through the air. Only Atlanta (14 pass TD allowed) has given up fewer passing touchdowns in the league, while Washington has given up more than twice as many passing TD (31). When Griffin drops back, he will rely mostly on WR Pierre Garcon, who has 33 catches for 475 yards and 3 TD in the past six games. Garcon has also been clutch in the postseason, totaling 329 receiving yards and 3 TD in his past three playoff games, scoring once in each game.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, January 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -7.5 500 POD

Baltimore - Under 46.5 500

Seattle - 4:30 PM ET Washington +3 500

Washington - Over 45 500

[Kaptain]

as always Bum, get em in PODNA

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday Playoff Tips

January 11, 2013

The divisional round of the playoffs is set to kick off on Saturday afternoon with Peyton Manning making his Broncos' postseason debut against the Ravens. In the late action, the Packers and 49ers meet in the playoffs for the sixth time since 1996, while San Francisco tries to erase last season's NFC Championship letdown.

Ravens at Broncos (-9 ½, 46) - 4:30 PM EST

Last season, Denver found a way to reach this round thanks to a Tim Tebow overtime touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas to shock Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round. The Broncos' postseason ride came to a screeching halt in a 45-10 drubbing at New England, but Denver can possibly return to Foxboro with a victory over Baltimore on Saturday.

The Ravens (11-6 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) reached this round after taking care of old friend Chuck Pagano's Colts, 24-9 in the Wild Card round. Baltimore easily cashed as 7 ½-point favorites in Ray Lewis' final home game with the Ravens, as the defense held Indianapolis to just three field goals. Anquan Boldin hauled in 145 yards receiving and a touchdown, while Joe Flacco became the first quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.

Baltimore heads to the Rockies with plenty of revenge on its minds after the Broncos humiliated the Ravens in a Week 15 rout, 34-17. Denver cashed as short road favorites, while building a 31-3 advantage after three quarters, even though Manning threw just one touchdown pass (to Eric Decker). The Ravens were limited to only 56 yards on the ground, as Flacco connected on a pair of long touchdown tosses to Dennis Pitta late to make the score closer.

The Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) began the season losing three of their first five games, including losses to the Falcons, Patriots, and Texans. However, John Fox's club got the train back on the tracks by winning 11 consecutive games, while covering eight times in this stretch. Manning led the offense to at least 30 points in nine contests during this current hot streak, as the Broncos cashed the 'over' seven times.

John Harbaugh's team won seven of nine home games this season, but the highway took a slight detour on the record. The Ravens split eight road contests, as two of those losses came by less than three points at Washington and Philadelphia. Although Baltimore is 4-4 SU in eight away playoff games during Harbaugh's tenure, the Ravens have covered five times, including in last season's AFC Championship at New England.

Dating back to 2003, Manning has won and covered six of nine playoff home contests as a member of the Colts. Twice during this span, Manning defeated the Ravens ('06 and '09), as Baltimore's offense sputtered against the Indianapolis defense by scoring a combined nine points in those losses.

Packers at 49ers (-3, 45) - 8:00 PM EST

Green Bay and San Francisco have put together some epic performances in the postseason, including several classics at Candlestick Park. Gone are Brett Favre, Steve Young, and Terrell Owens, but this new batch of superstars will look to shine on this stage with a ticket to the NFC Championship on the line.

The 49ers are playing their third straight playoff game at home dating back to last season, as San Francisco sat one possession away from the Super Bowl. Jim Harbaugh's team held off New Orleans in a game for the ages in the divisional round, a 36-32 triumph as three-point underdogs. The Niners couldn't close the door on the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants in the conference title game, falling to New York, 20-17 as two-point favorites.

The quarterback that led San Francisco's resurgence isn't the same one this time around, as second-year signal-caller Colin Kaepernick started the final seven games for Alex Smith, who suffered a concussion in a Week 10 tie against the Rams. Kaepernick guided the Niners on a pair of touchdown drives in the deadlock with St. Louis, but his performance the following Monday night against Chicago cemented his position as the team's starting quarterback.

In Smith's nine starts, the Niners compiled a 5-4 ATS record, including a 2-3 ATS mark at Candlestick. After Kaepernick took over, San Francisco cashed four of seven times, but one of those non-covers came as a 16-point favorite in a Week 17 win over lowly Arizona. The key number with Kaepernick under center is the 6-1 to the 'over,' in his seven starts, but four of those 'overs' came with a closing total of 40 or below.

The Packers are flying under the radar following last season's 15-1 record and a threat at going undefeated in the regular season. Before San Francisco's heartbreaking setback to New York in the NFC Title Game, the Giants shocked the Packers at Lambeau Field, 37-20 as nine-point 'dogs. Green Bay rebounded with another NFC North championship this season by posting a 9-2 record after a 2-3 stumble out of the gate. Mike McCarthy's club cruised past the Vikings in last Saturday's Wild Card rout, 24-10 as 9 ½-point favorites.

Revenge is on mind of the Packers after dropping the season opener to the 49ers, 30-22 at Lambeau. San Francisco jumped out to a 23-7 cushion, including three field goals from David Akers. Green Bay received a jolt thanks to a 75-yard punt return for a touchdown from Randall Cobb to cut the deficit to 23-15 in the fourth quarter. The Niners put the game away with a Frank Gore touchdown run, as the Pack scored a late touchdown to fall by eight. San Francisco cashed outright as six-point 'dogs, while the game barely finished 'over' the total of 46 ½.

Aaron Rodgers is quarterbacking his eighth playoff game for the Packers (5-2 SU/ATS), as Green Bay has taken four of the first five contests played away from Lambeau Field. Since 2006, the Packers own a sterling 19-9 ATS record in the role of a road underdog, while splitting a pair of games in this situation against the Giants and Texans this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Divisional Playoff Angles

January 9, 2013

NFL Divisional Playoff Payoffs

Once again, after expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. And while a Wild Card team has done so only seven times in Super Bowl history, five such winners have been crowned since 1997.

2010 witnessed the Packers hauling home the hardware. In 2007 it was the NY Giants, in 2005 the Pittsburgh Steelers, in 2000 the Baltimore Ravens and in 1997 the Denver Broncos.

Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? With one of the top seeds (Atlanta) owning the worst remaining defense in its conference, and its opponent (Seattle) sporting a Top-4 ranked stop-unit, an argument can certainly be made either way.

It's important to remember that 39 of the last 46 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense.

Before we crown anyone just yet, let's first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy.

All results are since 1990 and are ATS (Against the Spread), unless noted otherwise.

Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.

For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 31-11 SU and 23-19 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS, including 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS if they won 13 or fewer games last season.

The NFC spotlight shines on top-seeded Atlanta this week.

Top seeds from the AFC have struggled, going 14-9 SU and 9-13 ATS, including 6-5 SU and 2-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back wins.

No. 1 seed Denver will look to improve on those numbers when they host hot-and-cold Baltimore on Sunday.

Success Breeds Success

Rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That's confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 29-6 SU and 21-13-1-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Division Round contests.

New England and San Francisco fit the bill this season, rather cautiously though as teams in this role are just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS the last six years.

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 10-34 SU and 18-24-1 ATS in this round, including 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS when taking on No. 1 seeds.

However, before snapping the rubber band and fading Seattle this week - the only losing team last year to make it to the Division Round this year - you should know these 'losers' were 3-0 SU and ATS in this round last season.

Your move.

Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky at best, especially if those who grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 12-34 SU and 17-27-2 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact they dip to a filthy 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs.

Baltimore, Houston and Green Bay all look to avoid becoming road kill this week.

There you have it. A trio of time-tested theories to help guide you through the NFL Divisional Round games this week. Do the math, figure them out and play accordingly. Good luck as always.