The Bum's 2013 NFL Playoffs and SuperBowl Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday Wild Card Tips

January 4, 2013

The NFL postseason begins on Saturday with a rematch of a Wild Card game from last season and a rematch of a division battle from last Sunday. The Bengals and Texans are going in different directions, while the Packers try to forget about last year's playoff meltdown with a meeting against the Vikings.

Bengals at Texans (-4 ½, 43 ½) - 4:30 PM EST

Cincinnati seemed like a one-hit wonder after qualifying for the 2011 postseason at 9-7 and losing at Houston in the Wild Card round. The Bengals overcame a 3-5 start this season to win seven of their final eight contests to finish at 10-6 and get a return date to Reliant Stadium for another Saturday Wild Card matchup.

The Texans were a repeat offender of a poor December finish for the second straight season, dropping three of their last four games, all by double-digits. Last season, Houston didn't have the luxury of its starting quarterback Matt Schaub in the lineup, who was out due to a Lisfranc injury. Schaub is healthy this time around for the postseason, but he will need to duplicate the effort put together by his backup in this round last January.

Houston won its first ever playoff game (in its first try) over Cincinnati in the Wild Card round one year ago, 31-10 as four-point home favorites. T.J. Yates led the Texans on three scoring drives, including a pair of touchdowns in the second half. Arian Foster rushed for two touchdowns and 153 yards, while J.J. Watt's interception return for a score in the final minute of the first half broke a 10-10 tie. The Bengals couldn't recover from that mistake, as Cincinnati was held scoreless in the second half. The game barely broke the total of 38 thanks to a 42-yard touchdown scamper by Foster late in the fourth quarter, but the Texans would fall the following week at Baltimore in the divisional round.

This is Cincinnati's first shot at Schaub as Yates beats the Bengals twice last season, including a 20-19 comeback victory at Paul Brown Stadium in December 2011. The Bengals' defense stepped up after the slow start this season by limiting seven of their final eight opponents to less than 17 points. The 'under' cashed seven times in this stretch for Marvin Lewis' team, while the Bengals put together an impressive 7-1 ATS record.

The Texans cashed the 'under' in four of their last five games, but that was due to the offense hitting a snag, as the offense scored 16 points or less three times. Houston had an opportunity to lock up home-field advantage in the AFC, or at least capture a first-round bye, but losses to Minnesota and Indianapolis in the final two weeks cost the Texans a shot at rest. Gary Kubiak's club covered the number at home five of eight times, but compiled a 1-2 ATS record as a favorite of four points or less.

Cincinnati actually put together one of the top road records in the league at 6-2 SU, while covering six times. The two losses came at Baltimore and Cleveland, as the Bengals ended the season with four consecutive road victories (all against non-playoff teams). The Bengals have never won a road playoff contest in five tries, while trying for their first postseason victory since 1990 at the L.A. Coliseum against the Raiders.

Vikings at Packers (-7 ½, 46 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

These two NFC North rivals are very familiar with each other, in fact too familiar. Minnesota knocked off Green Bay this past Sunday just to make the playoffs, but it took a last-second field goal to complete the task. The Packers had a golden opportunity to capture a first-round bye with a win, as their journey to a second Super Bowl title in three seasons will have to begin without the benefit of rest.

Adrian Peterson fell short of Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, but the Vikings' Pro Bowl running back ran the Vikings into the playoffs with 199 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-34 triumph over the Packers. Minnesota cashed outright as three-point home favorites, snapping a two-game home losing streak to Green Bay. Christian Ponder threw three touchdown passes for Minnesota, while Aaron Rodgers tossed four touchdowns, including a pair to Greg Jennings. The game easily eclipsed the 'over of 45 ½, the fourth 'over' in the last five meetings at **** of America Stadium.

The Packers return to Lambeau Field owning a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS home mark, as the lone SU defeat came to the 49ers back in Week 1. Green Bay cashed as seven-point home favorites in an early December victory over Minnesota, 23-14. Following an 82-yard touchdown run by Peterson to give the Vikings a 14-10 lead, the Packers outscored Minnesota, 13-0 in the second half for the win. Green Bay's offense compiled 435 yards, but allowed 210 on the ground to Peterson, while the game finished 'under' the total of 47.

Thirty is the key number for the Green Bay defense, as the Packers allowed at least 30 points in four of their five losses this season. The only game in which Mike McCarthy's club didn't give up 30 points was the infamous Monday night defeat at Seattle back in Week 3, a 14-12 bitter setback that prevented the Packers from a first-round bye.

Minnesota tallied at least 30 points four times this season, but only one of those efforts came away from the Metrodome. The Vikings won consecutive road contests at St. Louis and Houston following a 1-5 start on the highway, as Leslie Frazier's squad cashed outright as 7 ½-point underdogs against the Texans in a Week 16 triumph. Minnesota hit the 'under' in five of eight road games, while allowing 23 or more points five times.

The Packers have lost four of their last six playoff games at Lambeau Field, although Rodgers is responsible for just last season's blowout loss to the Giants in the divisional round. Minnesota has dropped four of its previous five postseason contests on the road, while seeking its first playoff win since the 2009 divisional round against Dallas.

[StarDust Bum]

Wild Card Angles

January 1, 2013

NFL Wild Card Round... All In

Home cooking. It used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs.

Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 167-135-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than an Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water.

A closer look finds home teams just 113-102-5 ATS (52.7%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

The key today to winning in the playoffs is breaking the games down into rounds. And in doing so it’s wise to remember the linemakers have made the visiting teams more attractive (read: value-laden) than ever before.

Let’s take a look into opening round time-tested theories involving unrested, No. 3 or lower seeded teams, in playoff games.

Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 21-11-1 ATS - including 10-3 ATS at home.

This year finds the Texans and Packers return home looking to right themselves from road favorite losses last weekend.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 20-40-1 ATS – including 0-4 ATS last year.

Send these highwaymen out as ‘dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-30 SU and 9-25 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Bengals, Colts and Vikings this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-23 SU and 13-20-1 ATS, including 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long Vikings.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 12 or points, going just 5-15-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Colts look to throw a show this Sunday.

There you have it. A look at some of the more intriguing Wild Card trends and angles surrounding this year’s card.

I’ll be back next week as we sneak a quick look at the Divisional Round playoff matchups.

Until then, good luck as always.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Wild Card

January 4, 2013

The most heavily bet game of the weekend is the Seattle Seahawks playing at the Washington Redskins. Orleans sports book director Bob Scucci created some of the early action with high number, but based on tickets written and it being the final game of the weekend, the success of just about every book in Las Vegas will be hinged on that game.

“We opened the Seahawks high at minus-3 and got a lot of sharp play on the Redskins early on,” said Scucci. “But the Seahawks money has been coming strong, and combined the Redskins action as well, It’s our biggest handled game of the week.

“Once the parlays from the other three playoff games have been graded and roll into the Redskins game, it’s going to be a very large decision.”

It’s almost a shame that these two teams have to face each other right now because they are two of the hottest teams in the league, something you look for at this stage of the season when searching for Super Bowl futures. Five of the last seven Super Bowl winners have started from the Wild Card round. Playing the additional game and keeping momentum going appears to be more of an edge than resting and having the week off.

Advertisement



The Seahawks are 9/1 (Bet $100 to win $900) to win the Super Bowl and the Redskins are 25/1. The Seahawks have won seven of their last eight games and the Redskins have won seven straight.

When pressed for a team that could duplicate what the Giants (twice), Packers, Colts and Steelers have done from this round, Scucci said the Seahawks would be that team, but he’s hoping for a bigger draw for business purposes.

“We wouldn’t set many records with a Seahawks-Texans game, that’s for sure,” Scucci joked. “But the team I would love to see come out of this round and make the Super Bowl would be the Packers. If we get them against the Patriots or Broncos, that would be a game that would appeal to the masses more than any other.”

In order for the Packers to get there they’ll have to begin their climb by beating the Vikings, a team they lost to last week in a must win situation for the No. 2 playoff seed. Adrian Peterson has rushed for 409 yards combined in the two games against Green Bay, but Scucci still opened the Packers high for their home game.

“We got early sharp action on the Vikings +8, and dropped the game to 7 ½ (where it’s at now), but since then it’s been all Packers money with ticket counts on them at over 2-to-1,” Scucci said.

The other two Wild Card games haven’t generated as much excitement through the bet windows, but Scucci made a move on the fly because of an announcement.

“We had the Ravens -6 ½ and didn’t have a lot of action on them or the Colts, but when Ray Lewis made his announcement that he would be retiring, I thought that was worth a half-point and raised it to -7. The announcement may help shape public betting patterns and it may help the team play more focused, I don’t know, but I thought I’d be proactive with the news.”

The least bet game of the weekend has been the Bengals-Texans game where the side and total have stood still.

“We haven’t taken any large bets on the game,” said Scucci.

The Texans are -4 ½ and are almost in the same situation they were in last year, except they have their starting quarterback. Last season the Texans had lost their final three games, limping into the playoffs with rookie QB T.J. Yates, and beat the Bengals 31-10. This season, they limp in having lost three of their last four and blowing the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, relegating themselves to the Wild Card round.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Wild Card

January 3, 2013

Season Recap

When you look at the 2012 regular season from a totals perspective, the season was a wash for the most part and last week’s action summed it up. Week 17 watched the ‘under’ go 8-7-1 and on the season, the ‘under’ produced a 122-117-2 mark. If there was a glaring number, it was the ‘under’ producing a 31-18 (63%) record in the games played in primetime spots. I’ve read numerous reports about the sportsbooks taking it on the chin in the NFL this season and they did. However, it could’ve been a lot worse if the ‘over’ went 31-18 in games played ‘under’ the lights.

First Round Trends

According to the below table, the ‘under’ has produced an 18-14 (57%) record in the first round of the playoffs the last eight seasons, but the 'over' went 3-1 in last year’s playoffs. Will we see the ‘under’ bounce back this weekend? There are some things to take into consideration. For starters, every total in this year’s first round is listed at 43 points or above. It might not seem like a big deal, but that hasn’t happened since 2004 and you could argue that these numbers might be inflated.

First Round Total History (2004-2011)

2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)

St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5 Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37

N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43 New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37

Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56 Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5

Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5 Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5

2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)

Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5 Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39

Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48 Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41

New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5 N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5

Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5 San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39

2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)

Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34

San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49 Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5

Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38 Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5

Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41 Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48

2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (Over 3-1)

Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5 Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38

N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44 Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5

Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41 Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47

Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5 Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34



The eight teams in action this weekend will have different faces on the field but there are some telling trends for a few of the clubs.

Baltimore has seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 in its last three Wild Card games. The team has surrendered 9, 14 and 7 points in this round.
Indianapolis (with Peyton Manning) has watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 in its last four Wild Card contests.
Despite scoring 17, 14 and 10 points in its last three Wild Card appearances, the Bengals have watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 in these games.

Saturday, Jan. 5

Cincinnati at Houston: The oddsmakers sent out a total of 44 on this game and the sharps knocked it down to 43 quickly. Cincinnati’s defense is vastly underrated and the reason why a lot of people believe it could win on the road in this spot. In the second-half of the season, the Bengals gave up an average of 12.8 points per game, which helped the ‘under’ go 7-1. Now Cincinnati faces a Houston offense that is struggling. The Texans have 10 field goals and three touchdowns (one special teams) the last three weeks and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three games. In last year’s Wild Card game, Houston beat Cincinnati 31-10 and three of the touchdowns came on big plays, including one defensive score. The total closed at 38 and the ‘over’ barely cashed.

Minnesota at Green Bay: This total opened 45 ½ and was pushed up to 46. Last Sunday, the Vikings outlasted the Packers 37-34 in a wild shootout from the Metrodome. Now the pair squares off a week later from Lambeau Field, where temperatures are expected in the twenties for the night game. Will we see a combined 71 points again? It’s unlikely but it should be noted that the Vikings’ offense is averaging 29.3 PPG during their current four-game winning streak. Including last week’s effort of 199 years, running back Adrian Peterson has now put up 409 rushing yards in two games against the Packers this season. He does move the chains but he also keeps the clock running too, which is great for ‘under’ tickets. Along with last week’s matchup, these teams met on Dec. 2 from Wisconsin and Green Bay stopped Minnesota 23-14. The Vikings actually led this game at the break (14-10) before getting outscored 13-0 in the second-half. The problem for Minnesota was its quarterback Christian Ponder, who had 119 passing yards and two interceptions in the loss. In his first start at Lambeau Field last year, Ponder was 16-of-34 (47%) for 190 yards and a pick. If you’re looking at the ‘over’ then you’re hoping the second-year starter from Florida State plays well and he hasn’t proven that he can at this venue. Offensively, Green Bay has the more consistent attack and it hasn’t been held under 22 points at home this season. Also, since QB Aaron Rodgers took over the full time duties in the 2008 season, the Packers haven’t been held under 23 points against the Vikings.

Sunday, Jan. 6

Indianapolis at Baltimore: Did you know the Colts have the worst scoring offense (22.3 PPG) amongst all playoff teams and along with the Redskins they have the worst scoring defense (24.2 PPG). Indianapolis is the only team in the postseason that gives up more points than it scores. What does this mean to me? It tells us that Indy knows it can’t win a shootout on the road with the talent it has. The Colts have 11 wins and the ‘under’ went 9-2 in those games. Indy needs to control the ball and make this a low-scoring game. That’s easier said than done against a Baltimore offense that put up 30-plus in five of its eight home games this season. The Ravens’ defense is definitely a step slower but most would expect the experienced unit to give rookie QB Andrew Luck trouble. And for everybody that’s already sold on the kid, he did toss 18 interceptions and only completed 54% of his passes.

Seattle at Washington: This is probably the hardest side to gauge and total as well. Washington has won and covered seven straight behind an offense that’s averaging 30 PPG over this span. Meanwhile, Seattle has ripped off five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) and its defense has only surrendered 12 PPG during this stretch. Plus, we can’t ignore the fact that Seattle’s offense has averaged 38.6 PPG during this winning streak. The total opened 45 ½ and was pushed up to 46 at most shops. If you believe both teams can get to 23 points, which they’ve been doing rather easily the past two months then you’re looking at an easy ‘over’ ticket. You do have rookies under center for each team and the travel factor for Seattle to the East Coast should definitely be considered. In three road trips to the East Coast, the Seahawks went 2-1 and the ‘under’ went 2-1 as well. If you watched their loss to the Dolphins (21-24), they could’ve easily won that contest and the game should’ve stayed ‘under’ the number. The key to Seattle’s success in these games was its defense, which is ranked first in scoring (15 PPG) and fourth in total yards (306 YPG). RG3 is a different dynamic but he hasn’t faced a unit like this all season and most believe he’s still playing with a banged-up knee.

Fearless Predictions

We finished up the year strong with a 3-1 mark and picked up $190. On the season, we’re ahead just about eight units ($810). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Minnesota-Green Bay 46
Best Under: Seattle-Washington 46 1/2
Best Team Total: Over Green Bay 27 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 37 Minnesota-Green Bay
Under 55 ½ Seattle-Washington
Under 56 Indianapolis-Baltimore

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Playoff Preview: Bengals at Texans

CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-6)

at HOUSTON TEXANS (12-4)


AFC Wild Card Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -4.5, Total: 43

Cincinnati tries to win its first playoff game in 23 years on Saturday when it visits the same Houston team that ended its 2011 season in this same Wild Card round.

This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Wild Card matchup in which the Texans played back-up QB T.J. Yates but still cruised to a 31-10 victory. This year the Bengals played only four games against teams that made the playoffs, going 2-2 SU and ATS. That included last week’s narrow home win against a Ravens team that emptied its bench. They did win four straight on the road to finish the year, three over bottom-feeders and one a mistake-filled gift at Pittsburgh. Houston slumped down the stretch, but did go 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home, with its two SU losses coming to NFC playoff teams in Green Bay and Minnesota. The Bengals' look to end a four-game postseason losing skid, with their last playoff win coming in 1990, a 41-14 victory over the Houston Oilers.

Will the Bengals finally end their long playoff losing skid? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the postseason.

Cincinnati has been a great road team this season, going 6-2 (SU and ATS), with 24.6 PPG and 361 total YPG. However, QB Andy Dalton has struggled in the past three tilts, throwing for just 616 yards (5.8 YPA), 2 TD and 4 INT while taking 13 sacks. Dalton was awful in the playoff loss in Houston last year, throwing three picks and getting sacked four times. But not all is hopeless for Dalton, as the Texans secondary has faltered down the stretch this year, ranking a mediocre 16th in passing yards allowed (226 YPG). And they have 0-or-1 takeaways in six of the past seven games. The key matchup here will be Cincy star WR A.J. Green (1,350 rec. yds, 11 TD) against Houston's shutdown CB Johnathan Joseph, a former Bengals player. Cincy desperately needs injured RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (hamstring) to keep the Texans' pass rush (44 sacks, T-5th in NFL) at bay. Green-Ellis has played in four playoff games in the past two seasons with New England, rushing for a pedestrian 183 yards on 47 carries (3.9 YPC) and one touchdown. The Bengals know they must be keenly aware of Houston DL J.J. Watt, who has 81 tackles, 20.5 sacks, 23 Tackles for Loss and 16 passes defended this season. Watt also returned an interception 29 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter of last year's playoff win against Cincy, giving his team the lead for good.

Texans QB Matt Schaub is making his playoff debut, and is sure happy this debut is at home, where he has a 101.7 passer rating (8.0 YPA, 13 TD, 4 INT) this year, compared to his 79.5 rating (6.7 YPA, 9 TD, 8 INT) on the road. He did not finish the 2012 campaign on a strong note with 1 TD and 3 INT over his final four games, but he does have a healthy WR Andre Johnson who has been outstanding late in the season. In the past seven games, he has 66 catches for 1,001 yards (143 YPG), including four games of at least 140 yards. Johnson caught five passes for 90 yards and a TD in last year's win over Cincy. But the Texans prefer to run the football (508 rush attempts, 4th-most in NFL), in particular with Arian Foster, who has 1,424 rushing yards (6th in NFL) and a league-leading 17 total touchdowns. The Bengals had no answer for Foster last year, as he rumbled for 153 yards (6.4 YPC) and 2 TD on the ground, plus 29 more yards through the air. However, this year's Cincinnati team has a great defense, ranking 7th in the NFL in passing defense (213 YPG) and 12th in rushing defense (107 YPG). The Bengals also rank third in the NFL with 51 quarterback sacks, led by DT Geno Atkins (12.5 sacks) and DE Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks).

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Playoff Preview: Vikings at Packers

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-6)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5)


NFC Wild Card Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -8, Total: 46

NFC North foes will meet for the third time in a little more than a month when the Vikings visit the Packers in the NFC Wild Card playoffs on Saturday night.

In the regular season finale, with the Packers playing for a first-round bye and the Vikings trying to make the playoffs, Minnesota won 37-34 on a last-second field goal as Adrian Peterson ran for 199 yards. In two games against the Packers this year, Peterson has 409 rushing yards and 7.4 YPC. In their meeting at Green Bay in Week 13, QB Christian Ponder was miserable, going 12-of-25 for 119 yards and 2 INT in a 23-14 Packers win. Green Bay has beaten the Vikings at home three straight times, SU and ATS. Minnesota is just 3-5 SU and ATS on the road this year.

Can the Packers win handily against their division rival on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Ponder had a career-high 120.2 passer rating in last week's win, completing 16-of-28 passes for 234 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. But his rating hasn't even been half that number in his two visits to Green Bay where he's completed just 47.5% of his passes for 309 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT. Especially with top WR Percy Harvin (ankle) unable to play, there's no secret that the Vikings will try to win this game on the ground with Peterson, who has rushed for 1,442 yards (5.6 YPC) and 9 TD in a dozen career games in this series. And although Peterson is tough to catch on his fast home turf (5.6 YPC), he's been even better on the road this year with 6.5 YPC. Green Bay allows a respectable 118.5 rushing yards per game (17th in NFL), but the Viking have gained 457 yards (228.5 YPG) in the two meetings this year. Green Bay has a stronger passing defense (218 YPG allowed, 11th in NFL), allowing just 161 passing YPG in the past five games. This unit will be even more formidable when S Charles Woodson (55 career INT) returns to the field for the first time since Week 7 because of a collarbone injury. Ponder also has to make quick decisions as the Packers rank fourth in the NFL with 47 sacks this year.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has put up some pretty impressive numbers in the postseason, throwing for 1,781 yards (297 YPG), 15 TD and 4 INT, while posting a 4-2 record. He's also been incredible in the past four seasons in this series versus Minnesota, completing 71% of his passes for 2,503 yards (313 YPG), 23 TD and 4 INT. This includes his 365 yards and 4 TD in last week's loss. Rodgers will also benefit from the probable return of WR Randall Cobb (ankle), who caught 80 passes for 954 yards and 8 TD this season. Top WRs Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are also both 100 percent healthy, which is bad news for the Vikings' 24th-ranked passing defense. Jennings caught eight passes for 120 yards and 2 TD last week, giving him 29 catches for 497 yards and 7 TD in the past five meetings with Minnesota. Although the Packers are not a good rushing team (106 YPG, 20th in NFL), they did chew up 152 yards on 36 carries when these teams met on Dec. 2 at Lambeau Field. RB DuJuan Harris got 14 of the team's 16 carries last week, but veteran Ryan Grant and second-year man Alex Green could also run the football on Saturday night. Having some semblance of a running game will be key, especially because the Vikings are tied for 5th in the NFL with 44 sacks this year.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds: Wild Card Weekend opening line report

The dust has settled after 17 weeks on the NFL gridiron and now it’s time to separate the men from the boys.

Three of the four matchups have been determined for Wild Card Weekend and oddsmakers are scrambling to set their lines. We chatted with Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based oddsmaking service The Sports Club, about the opening odds for this weekend’s playoff games.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-8, 46)

Adrian Peterson’s career-high 34 carries led the Vikings to their fourth straight victory (4-0 ATS) Sunday to set up a rematch with Green Bay at Lambeau Field. Despite Minnesota’s hot run, Korner’s team of oddsmakers decided on a suggested spread of Green Bay -8 with home-field advantage in mind.

“We pumped it up a little,” Korner told Covers. “This is going to be a tough cover for Green Bay.”

Korner’s crew also suggested a total of 46, but that number could plummet rapidly depending on the weather conditions at Lambeau.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 47)

This game features two teams heading in different directions. The Ravens stumbled into the playoffs, dropping four of their last five games while the Colts finished strong with victories over the Chiefs and Texans.

Korner’s team had this game between Ravens -3 and -6, but settled right in the middle at -4.5.

“We didn’t want to give bettors a deal,” says Korner. “Indy is not as good on the road.”

The heart and soul of the Baltimore defense will be back to pester Colts QB Andrew Luck in his playoff debut. Linebacker Ray Lewis (triceps) was activated from IR prior to Week 17 and will suit up for this one.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-5, 45)

The Texans had multiple opportunities to clinch a bye, but back-to-back losses dropped them to the No. 3 seed in the AFC to set up a date with the streaking Bengals.

“Cincinnati is hotter than hell,” notes Korner. “This one would have been Houston -7 or -8 a few weeks ago. But we had to account for how well the Bengals are playing, so we settled at Texans -5.”

The Bengals have picked up wins in seven of their last eight games, covering the spread in each of those victories.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Cincinnati at Houston
The Bengals look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Cincinnati is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 101-102: Cincinnati at Houston (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 135.851; Houston 138.397
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Over

Game 103-104: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 134.082; Green Bay 144.563
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8); Under


SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 131.150; Baltimore 133.812
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+6 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Seattle at Washington (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 141.159; Washington 142.642
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (12 - 4) - 1/5/2013, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 111-143 ATS (-46.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (10 - 6) at GREEN BAY (11 - 5) - 1/5/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) at BALTIMORE (10 - 6) - 1/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (11 - 5) at WASHINGTON (10 - 6) - 1/6/2013, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 53-81 ATS (-36.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Cincinnati at Houston, 4:30 ET NBC
Cincinnati: 5-17 ATS after allowing 200+ rushing yards
Houston: 18-7 ATS vs. conference opponents

Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:00 ET NBC
Minnesota: 2-12 ATS away off a home win by 3 points or less
Green Bay: 10-2 ATS vs. division opponents


Sunday, January 6, 2013

Indianapolis at Baltimore, 1:00 ET CBS
Indianapolis: 7-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS at home off a road loss

Seattle at Washington, 4:30 ET FOX
Seattle: 14-28 ATS off a home division win
Washington: 7-0 ATS off a home game

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Wild Card Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, January 5

4:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 23 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, January 6

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BALTIMORE
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

4:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Washington is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games at home
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: NFL Wild Card midweek line moves

The NFL Wild Card weekend odds have been up since late Sunday and books have been busy taking bets and making adjustments on the four postseason matchups. We chat with Aron Black of Bet365.com about the NFL betting patterns heading into the weekend:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans – Open: -5, Move: -4, Move: -4.5

Early money pushed this spread off -5 and as low as -4 at some books before coming back up to settle at -4.5. According to Black, the money is very even with a slight lean toward Houston. However, the Texans' recent struggles have scared away plenty of bettors.

“Not as many buying in as they would have if Houston had just an average finish to season, which probably would have translated to a line closer to -6 or -6.5,” Black told Covers.

The sharp money has mostly sided with the home team and Black expects the public to jump on Houston as well, moving the line back to -5 or even -5.5 before Saturday.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5

Depending on where you play, the Vikings are anywhere between 8 and 9.5-point underdogs in this rematch of Week 17’s thrilling finale.

At Bet365.com, Black reports a slight lean toward Minnesota +8 from the betting public. He believes the classic Lambeau Field environment will play a big part in the outcome of Saturday’s game. The extended forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 20s.

“Conditions will be a factor in this one,” says Black. “A dome team going to Lambeau is always going to favor Green Bay. Sharp money has been swerving this one so far and I can see the line dropping a touch to Minnesota.”

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -7, Move: -6.5

The Colts weren’t supposed to be playing in January but here they are, taking on the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card round. Action on the spread has been split for the most part but books are seeing money come in on Indianapolis’ moneyline (+235), expecting more surprises from this team.

“Indianapolis has obviously been a surprise given how they were year last, but they have had a great season from rookie QB Andrew Luck and the bettors are at least split so far on who’s going to cover,” says Black. “Not sure this one will move much, but weather on the day may force something.”

The forecast for Sunday’s early game is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 30s with winds blowing WNW at 11 mph in Baltimore – a far cry from the cozy climate of the domed Lucas Oil Stadium.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins – Open: +2.5, Move: +3

Early action on the Seahawks has this spread sitting on the key number of 3 and Black says it will take a lot to move off the field goal before Sunday night. So far, action on Seattle is coming in at a 2-to-1 ratio and books are juggling the juice heading toward the weekend.

This game throws some mystery at bettors with two rookie quarterbacks leading the charge and its the only game this weekend where the home team is the underdog. Both Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have played beyond their years, but Black feels Wilson has been the better of the two down the stretch.

“A lot has been written and lots of press given to Griffin and how good he has been this season. But looking at the numbers, Wilson at least holds his own and has had much better numbers leading down to the end of the season,” he says. “This game looks to be possibly the most exciting game of the wild card games.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Wild Card Weekend

Cincinnati at Houston (-4.5, 43)

The Bengals won seven of their final eight games to secure consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since the 1981-82 seasons. Cincinnati's defense has been sensational in the second half of the campaign, not allowing more than 20 points and limiting six of its last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. The Texans have dropped two straight SU and ATS and quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown only one TD pass against three interceptions in the past four games. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and have covered the number in their past four road games.


Minnesota at Green Bay (-9.5, 46)

The Packers have won 26 of their last 28 games (including the postseason) at Lambeau Field. They are just 2-4 in their last six home playoff games, however. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and amassed a season-high 365 yards for Green Bay in last week’s setback to the Vikings and has been at his best down the stretch, totaling 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers' final three regular-season games. Stopping Adrian Peterson will be the No. 1 goal for the Green Bay defense. The MVP candidate shredded the Packers for 409 yards in two meetings this season. The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.


Indianapolis at Baltimore (-6.5, 47)

The Ravens, who have dropped four of their last five games, are fueled by their own inspiration after future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis announced he will retire at the conclusion of the season and could be potentially playing in the final game of his career. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin will also be back on the field after his one-week hiatus with a bruised shoulder. Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is cruising into the postseason on a high. The top overall pick has thrown five touchdowns without an interception in his last three games - and the Colts have won nine of 11 following their 28-16 triumph over AFC South champion Houston. The Colts are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Ravens, but keep in mind those covers were during the Peyton Manning era in Indianapolis.


Seattle at Washington (3, 46)

The Redskins will host a playoff game for the first time in 13 years on Sunday. Washington has won seven consecutive contests SU and ATS, while Seattle enters on a five-game SU winning streak (4-1 ATS). Both teams feature potent rushing attacks, but the Seahawks have the edge on defense. Seattle allowed an average of 321.6 yards for the league's fourth-best mark while Washington allowed an average of 390.8 for the NFL's fourth-worst. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against a team with a winning record.

[StarDust Bum]

Bengals at Texans: What bettors need to know

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5, 43)

A stunning late-season swoon cost the Houston Texans what appeared to be a certain first-round bye in the playoffs and put them in the position of having to host the surging Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Texans were tied for the best record in football and were in the driver's seat for the top seed and home field throughout the playoffs before stumbling down the stretch with losses in three of their final four games. That included back-to-back defeats to Minnesota and Indianapolis to close out the regular season.

The Bengals, on the other hand, had little margin for error after a four-game losing streak left them wobbling at 3-5 at the season's midway point. Cincinnati regrouped to win four straight and seven of its final eight to secure consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since the 1981-82 seasons. The game will be a rematch of last season's first-round meeting in Houston, won 31-10 by the Texans.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The LVH opened the Texans as 5-point favorites and the line has bounced around between Houston -4 and -5 all week at most shops.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 52 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Texans to cover and 58 percent are on the over.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-6): Cincinnati's defense has been sensational in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 20 points and limiting six of its last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. The only defeat in the final eight games came on a last-second field goal to Dallas. The Bengals ranked second in the league with 51 sacks and showed their defensive mettle by winning at Pittsburgh 13-10 in Week 16 to clinch a playoff slot. Cincinnati rested many of its starters in the regular-season finale, but has questions about its running game after 1,000-yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis was held to 15 yards by the Steelers. He is also dealing with a sore hamstring. Second-year quarterback Andy Dalton has tossed only two TD passes in the past three games but, like Schaub, has an elite wideout in A.J. Green, who registered 97 receptions and 11 touchdowns.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (12-4): Houston managed a single offensive touchdown the past two games in squandering a pair of chances to sew up a first-round bye. But while many point to the 42-14 beating at New England on Dec. 10 as the start of the Texans' skid, they have been inconsistent for the past seven weeks, beginning with consecutive overtime wins over Jacksonville and Detroit. Quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown only one TD pass against three interceptions in the past four games. WR Andre Johnson has been the only reliable target in that span, hauling in 38 catches to finish the season with 112 receptions and 1,598 yards. Running back Arian Foster rushed for 1,424 yards and scored a league-high 17 touchdowns. Defensive end J.J. Watt had 20 1/2 sacks to anchor a defense that was the league's best for much of the season but allowed at least 28 points in four of the last seven games.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 8-0 in Bengals’ last eight games following a win.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans’ last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Foster rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Houston's playoff win over the Bengals last season.

2. Dalton, who was picked off three times in the postseason loss to Houston, threw 11 interceptions in the first eight games this season but only five in the final eight.

3. The Texans beat the Bengals twice last season, clinching the AFC South title on a last-second 20-19 win at Cincinnati.

[StarDust Bum]

Vikings at Packers: What bettors need to know

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay (-9.5, 46)

Just six days after an instant classic in the regular-season finale, the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will meet in the first round of the playoffs on Saturday night. The Vikings used a last-second field goal to steal the win on Sunday at home and grab the final wild-card spot in the NFC. This time, the Packers will have the home field advantage as the No. 3 seed and NFC North champion.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson came up nine yards short of beating Eric Dickerson’s season record but made the play when it counted on Sunday, breaking through on a 26-yard run to set up Blair Walsh’s 29-yard field goal in the final seconds. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and amassed a season-high 365 yards for Green Bay in the setback and has been at his best down the stretch, totaling 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers' final three regular-season games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Books are seeing heavy action on the Vikings that has moved the line to Green Bay -7.5 at some offshores.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 68 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Vikings to cover and 65 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-20s with a slight chance of freezing rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (10-6): Minnesota needed to win its final four games of the regular season just to reach the playoffs and knocked off playoff contenders Chicago, Houston and Green Bay in those final weeks. Peterson carried it 34 times for 199 yards in Week 17 and averaged 159.8 yards over the final 10 games of the regular season despite being less than a year removed from major knee surgery. While Peterson’s performance has been consistent, quarterback Christian Ponder’s effort in the finale was more of a surprise. The second-year starter passed for 234 yards and a season-high three touchdowns without an interception for a career-best 120.2 rating. The Vikings have some big questions on defense, as cornerback Antoine Winfield left Sunday’s game with a hand injury and is questionable. Rodgers threw for three scores with Winfield off the field.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-5): Green Bay did not have the same motivation as Minnesota last week, with the Packers' postseason spot already assured. They could have earned a first-round bye with a victory, but the “win or go home” mentality that will be there this week was not on display in Minneapolis. Rodgers is working with a battered receiving corps with Randall Cobb (ankle) questionable and Jordy Nelson (hamstring) limited. Greg Jennings caught a pair of touchdown passes last week in his best game of the season and could get a lot more attention from the Minnesota secondary on Saturday. Stopping Peterson will be the No. 1 goal for the defense. The MVP candidate shredded Green Bay for 409 yards in two meetings this season.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.
* Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Green Bay.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This will mark just the second meeting between the two division rivals in the playoffs. The Vikings won a wild-card game at Lambeau Field in 2004.

2. The Packers have won 26 of their last 28 games (including the postseason) at Lambeau Field. They are just 2-4 in their last six home playoff games, however, including a loss to the New York Giants in the divisional round last season.

3. Minnesota is tied for 27th in the NFL with just 10 interceptions - three by Winfield.