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Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, January 17
-- Florida allowed 48 ppg in winning its first two SEC games by 33-22 points; Gators are 3-1 in true road games, with only loss at Arizona in game they led by six in last minute. Texas A&M won its first two SEC games by 18-12 point, with win at Kentucky; they're shooting 38.9% on arc (#21 in US); how did they lose at home to Southern? SEC home dogs are 3-2 against the spread.
-- Valparaiso won five of last six games vs Detroit, but lost to Titans by 20 in Horizon League title game LY, third year in row teams met in the conference tourney. Crusaders won last two visits here, by 10-2 points. 13-5 Valpo was held to 54 or less points in four of five losses this year; they're 5-4 on road, with win at Murray State. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-1 vs spread.
-- 16-1 Michigan lost for first time at Ohio State Sunday, its first loss in three true road games; Wolverines won three in row, seven of last eight games vs Minnesota, beating Gophers in OT in conference tourney last spring. Michigan is 3-0 in last three visits here, winning by 3-8-7 points. Big Dozen road teams are 5-3 vs spread if number is 5 or less. Gophers lost last game by 7 at Indiana, after being down 52-29 at the half.
-- Middle Tennessee is 3-0 in Sun Belt home games, winning by 17-18-10 points; Blue Raiders are 5-3 in last eight games vs Little Rock- home team won four of last five. UALR is 0-6 on road this year, losing league away games by 14-9-3 points. Trojans lost last two visits here, by 17-8 points. Sun Belt home favorites are 13-6 vs spread, 3-2 if laying double digits. Middle Tennessee is forcing turnovers 24.6% of time (#22).
-- Home side won seven of last eight South Florida-Rutgers games; USF lost lost three of last four visits here, losing by 18-3-9 points. Big East home favorites of 6 or less points are 0-8 vs spread. Bulls scored 45 ppg in losing first three league games by 11-8-26 points; they're only winless team in Big East. Rutgers is 2-2 in conference, but wins were by total of seven points, with Knights scoring just 59 ppg in four games.
-- New Mexico State is 4-2 in WAC after winning pair of road games by total of 3 points last week; they won two home games by 20-11 points. Utah State is 5-0 in WAC, with three of five wins by 7 or less points. Home side won 11 of last 15 USU-NMS games, as USU lost five of last seven visits to Las Cruces, losing by 3-7-30-3-20 points. WAC home favorites are 3-11 against the spread, 1-7 if laying single digits.
-- 14-3 VCU hasn't lost since Thanksgiving weekend; they've won 12 in a row, winning first two Atlantic 16 games by 12-7 points. Rams force turnovers 30.7% of time, #1 in country. St Joe's won four of last five, losing at home by 6 to Butler. Hawks are #38 in country at protecting ball; they're 4-2 on road- only one of their five losses was by more than seven points. A-16 home favorites are 9-5 vs spread.
-- Oregon State is 0-3 in Pac-12 play, losing three home tilts; they beat UCLA in Corvallis LY, ending 13-game series losing skid. Beavers lost last eight visits here, by 11-8-18-47-35-25-9-8 points. Bruins are 14-3 after slow start, 4-0 in Pac-12, winning its home games by 14-8 points. Beavers won by 5 at Portland State in its only true road game this year. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-16 vs spread, 1-4 if laying 8+ points.
-- Fullerton won five of last seven games vs Irvine, winning last three in its home gym, all by six points; Titans are 3-1 in conference, winning its two home games by by 7-2 points. Anteaters beat Fullerton in Big West tourney last spring. Home team is 5-0 SU in Irvine's Big West games, as Anteaters lost two road games, by 3-5 points. Big West home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-8 against the spread.
-- This is USC's first game since firing O'Neill; chances are they'll play a little faster. 7-10 Trojans have played #12 schedule in country, that did not help the former coach. Oregon won last five games vs USC, winning last two here by ten points each; Ducks are 2-1 on road, with wins at UNLV/Oregon State, losing at UTEP in triple OT. Pac-12 underdogs are 21-6 vs spread, 5-0 at home. USC is 2-1 at home in conference.
-- Belmont scored 87.8 ppg in winning first four OVC games, winning at home by 35-37 points, but Eastern Kentucky is also 4-0 in OVC, while allowing only 60.8 ppg. Three of EKU's wins were at home, but they've won at Murray State, scoring 20 unanswered points in that game. OVC double digit home favorites are 4-6 vs spread. EKU lost at Illinois by 13, West Virginia by 7, in its only two top 100 games.
-- Western Illinois won its last ten games, but best team they beat in the 10 games was #149 Ill-Chicago; WIU lost its last seven games vs South Dakota State, losing to Jackrabbits in OT in Summit finals last March. State won last three visits here, by 1-31-6 points; they're 9-2 vs teams outside top 100, but just 3-6 in true road games. Summit home favorites are 5-9 vs spread, 3-5 if laying single digits.
-- Tennessee State won four of last six games vs Jacksonville State, with 66-57 road win 12 days ago, when Gamecocks shot just 34.2% at home, 19-34 from foul line. Tigers won last six games after 3-7 start; they are 5-0 in OVC, winning home tilts by 8-32-12 points. JSU allowed 57 ppg in winning all three of its conference road games. OVC home favorites are 7-9 against spread, 3-3 if laying single digits.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, January 17
-- Florida allowed 48 ppg in winning its first two SEC games by 33-22 points; Gators are 3-1 in true road games, with only loss at Arizona in game they led by six in last minute. Texas A&M won its first two SEC games by 18-12 point, with win at Kentucky; they're shooting 38.9% on arc (#21 in US); how did they lose at home to Southern? SEC home dogs are 3-2 against the spread.
-- Valparaiso won five of last six games vs Detroit, but lost to Titans by 20 in Horizon League title game LY, third year in row teams met in the conference tourney. Crusaders won last two visits here, by 10-2 points. 13-5 Valpo was held to 54 or less points in four of five losses this year; they're 5-4 on road, with win at Murray State. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-1 vs spread.
-- 16-1 Michigan lost for first time at Ohio State Sunday, its first loss in three true road games; Wolverines won three in row, seven of last eight games vs Minnesota, beating Gophers in OT in conference tourney last spring. Michigan is 3-0 in last three visits here, winning by 3-8-7 points. Big Dozen road teams are 5-3 vs spread if number is 5 or less. Gophers lost last game by 7 at Indiana, after being down 52-29 at the half.
-- Middle Tennessee is 3-0 in Sun Belt home games, winning by 17-18-10 points; Blue Raiders are 5-3 in last eight games vs Little Rock- home team won four of last five. UALR is 0-6 on road this year, losing league away games by 14-9-3 points. Trojans lost last two visits here, by 17-8 points. Sun Belt home favorites are 13-6 vs spread, 3-2 if laying double digits. Middle Tennessee is forcing turnovers 24.6% of time (#22).
-- Home side won seven of last eight South Florida-Rutgers games; USF lost lost three of last four visits here, losing by 18-3-9 points. Big East home favorites of 6 or less points are 0-8 vs spread. Bulls scored 45 ppg in losing first three league games by 11-8-26 points; they're only winless team in Big East. Rutgers is 2-2 in conference, but wins were by total of seven points, with Knights scoring just 59 ppg in four games.
-- New Mexico State is 4-2 in WAC after winning pair of road games by total of 3 points last week; they won two home games by 20-11 points. Utah State is 5-0 in WAC, with three of five wins by 7 or less points. Home side won 11 of last 15 USU-NMS games, as USU lost five of last seven visits to Las Cruces, losing by 3-7-30-3-20 points. WAC home favorites are 3-11 against the spread, 1-7 if laying single digits.
-- 14-3 VCU hasn't lost since Thanksgiving weekend; they've won 12 in a row, winning first two Atlantic 16 games by 12-7 points. Rams force turnovers 30.7% of time, #1 in country. St Joe's won four of last five, losing at home by 6 to Butler. Hawks are #38 in country at protecting ball; they're 4-2 on road- only one of their five losses was by more than seven points. A-16 home favorites are 9-5 vs spread.
-- Oregon State is 0-3 in Pac-12 play, losing three home tilts; they beat UCLA in Corvallis LY, ending 13-game series losing skid. Beavers lost last eight visits here, by 11-8-18-47-35-25-9-8 points. Bruins are 14-3 after slow start, 4-0 in Pac-12, winning its home games by 14-8 points. Beavers won by 5 at Portland State in its only true road game this year. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-16 vs spread, 1-4 if laying 8+ points.
-- Fullerton won five of last seven games vs Irvine, winning last three in its home gym, all by six points; Titans are 3-1 in conference, winning its two home games by by 7-2 points. Anteaters beat Fullerton in Big West tourney last spring. Home team is 5-0 SU in Irvine's Big West games, as Anteaters lost two road games, by 3-5 points. Big West home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-8 against the spread.
-- This is USC's first game since firing O'Neill; chances are they'll play a little faster. 7-10 Trojans have played #12 schedule in country, that did not help the former coach. Oregon won last five games vs USC, winning last two here by ten points each; Ducks are 2-1 on road, with wins at UNLV/Oregon State, losing at UTEP in triple OT. Pac-12 underdogs are 21-6 vs spread, 5-0 at home. USC is 2-1 at home in conference.
-- Belmont scored 87.8 ppg in winning first four OVC games, winning at home by 35-37 points, but Eastern Kentucky is also 4-0 in OVC, while allowing only 60.8 ppg. Three of EKU's wins were at home, but they've won at Murray State, scoring 20 unanswered points in that game. OVC double digit home favorites are 4-6 vs spread. EKU lost at Illinois by 13, West Virginia by 7, in its only two top 100 games.
-- Western Illinois won its last ten games, but best team they beat in the 10 games was #149 Ill-Chicago; WIU lost its last seven games vs South Dakota State, losing to Jackrabbits in OT in Summit finals last March. State won last three visits here, by 1-31-6 points; they're 9-2 vs teams outside top 100, but just 3-6 in true road games. Summit home favorites are 5-9 vs spread, 3-5 if laying single digits.
-- Tennessee State won four of last six games vs Jacksonville State, with 66-57 road win 12 days ago, when Gamecocks shot just 34.2% at home, 19-34 from foul line. Tigers won last six games after 3-7 start; they are 5-0 in OVC, winning home tilts by 8-32-12 points. JSU allowed 57 ppg in winning all three of its conference road games. OVC home favorites are 7-9 against spread, 3-3 if laying single digits.
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