The Bum's NCAAB Best Bets For January !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Sunday, January 27

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Study group: Sunday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
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Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (-10, 134)

The last time Indiana hosted Michigan State 11 months ago, the Hoosiers ended a six-game losing streak in the series. When they meet again on Sunday in Bloomington, one will do so with a chance to establish some breathing room atop the Big Ten standings near the midpoint of the conference season. By virtue of already playing seven league contests, No. 11 Michigan State has won one move win than No. 3 Michigan and No. 8 Indiana, each of which has played six games. With the Wolverines facing a tough road test in Illinois on Sunday, the winner of this contest could claim the top spot in the Big Ten for a short while, at least until the Spartans and Hoosiers meet again in East Lansing on Feb. 19. Indiana moved to 12-1 at home this season with Wednesday’s 72-49 pounding of Penn State while Michigan State extended its winning streak to six games with Tuesday’s grinding 49-47 victory at Wisconsin.

Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini (+6, 136)

No. 3 Michigan faces Illinois in Champaign on Sunday and, with a win, could take over the top spot in the national rankings. It's the second time in three weeks that the Wolverines are potentially a victory away from the No. 1 slot. Michigan fell to Ohio State in Columbus on Jan. 13, 56-53. Since, the Wolverines have beaten Minnesota on the road and Purdue at home to re-establish themselves. After starting 8-0 at Assembly Hall, the Fighting Illini have dropped their last two home contests - double-digit affairs against Minnesota and Northwestern. Those games were part of a three-game losing streak for Illinois, but a 20-point win at Nebraska on Tuesday should serve as something of a confidence booster entering the matchup with the Wolverines, who will be anxious to avenge their earlier misstep against the Buckeyes.

Creighton Bluejays at Southern Illinois Salukis (+12.5, 141)

Creighton will try to right the ship when it travels to Southern Illinois for a Missouri Valley Conference game Sunday evening. The No. 12 Bluejays are coming off back-to-back losses for the first time this season, dropping them out of first place in conference play. They lost by three points to No. 21 Wichita State last weekend, then fell to Drake—a team Creighton had defeated by 30 points 15 days earlier—by five on Wednesday. Doug McDermott, second in the nation in scoring at 23.8, was limited to two points in the second half against Drake because of illness. Southern Illinois will be without one of its best players against the Bluejays. Jeff Early, a senior guard who’s averaging 12.7 points and 7.5 rebounds, will serve a one-game suspension after committing a flagrant-2 foul in Wednesday’s loss to Northern Iowa.

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NCAAB

Sunday, January 27

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Four poor NCAAB teams making bettors rich
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The search for ATS gold in college basketball is rarely started at the top. The best bets seem to come from the most unlikely places.

As the conference schedule barrels towards February, plenty of poor programs are making bettors rich. Here are some bad teams that make good bets:

Records and stats as of Saturday, January 26.

Fordham Rams (4-15 SU, 11-5 ATS)

The Rams aren’t good at much – ranked 225th in offense and 333rd in defense – but they somehow keep coming up big for bettors. Fordham has sunk to the bottom of A-10, with a 1-3 SU mark in conference play heading into the weekend. Favorable spreads have helped those profits. The Rams have been favorites in just two of their 16 lines games.

Utah Utes (9-10 SU, 11-5-1 ATS)

The Pac-12 is sneaky good this season and Utah hasn’t been able to keep pace most nights. The Utes have opened league competition with a 1-6 SU record but have come away with the cover in four of those games, heading into Sunday’s date at Stanford. Utah is a stellar 5-1-1 ATS on the road.

Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-10 SU, 10-3 ATS)

The Mountaineers may be trending downward now that conference play has caught up to them in the Southern. App State opened the year with a perfect 10-0 ATS mark through its first 10 lined games but has since hit the wall, failing to cover in its last three games. A hand injury to leading scorer Jay Canty could add to those troubles versus Davidson this weekend.

San Francisco Dons (9-11 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)

The Dons are one of the hottest bets in college hoops heading into a showdown with WCC gatekeeper, Gonzaga, Saturday. San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last eight lined games despite winning just three of those contests. The Dons have been golden near the Golden Gate, going 5-2 ATS at home, but play inside War Memorial Gymnasium just once in the next four games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet

Sunday, January 27

Michigan State at Indiana, 1:00 ET CBS
Michigan State: 0-8 ATS off BB games allowing 65 points or less
Indiana: 10-2 ATS at home off a home win by 10+ points

(TC) Creighton at Southern Illinois, 8:00 ET ESPNU
Creighton: 11-4 ATS after playing as a favorite
Southern Illinois: 8-20 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games

Michigan at Illinois, 6:00 ET BTN
Michigan: 23-11 ATS off 3+ conference games
Illinois: 0-6 ATS at home off a win by 10+ points

Florida State at Miami FL, 6:00 ET ESPNU
Florida State: 8-1 Over away off a home win
Miami FL: 6-0 ATS in home games


(TC) = Time Change

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, January 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Iona - 12:00 PM ET Iona +0 500
Loyola-Maryland -

Seton Hall - 12:00 PM ET Seton Hall +4 500
St. John's -

Virginia Tech - 1:00 PM ET Clemson -10.5 500
Clemson -

Michigan St - 1:00 PM ET Michigan St +9 500
Indiana -

Chattanooga - 2:00 PM ET Chattanooga +6 500 POD
NC-Greensboro -

Richmond - 2:00 PM ET Richmond +2.5 500
Massachusetts -

Rutgers - 2:00 PM ET Connecticut -8.5 500
Connecticut -

Fairfield - 2:00 PM ET Fairfield -8 500
St. Peter's -

Siena - 2:00 PM ET Marist -4 500
Marist -

Drake - 3:00 PM ET Missouri St. +1 500
Missouri St. -

California - 3:30 PM ET California +6.5 500 POD
Colorado -

Iowa - 3:30 PM ET Purdue -2.5 500
Purdue -

Manhattan - 4:00 PM ET Rider -6 500
Rider -

Niagara - 4:00 PM ET Canisius -4 500
Canisius -

Florida International - 5:05 PM ET South Alabama -5 500
South Alabama -

Florida St. - 6:00 PM ET Florida St. +10.5 500
Miami-Florida -

Michigan - 6:00 PM ET Michigan -6.5 500
Illinois -

George Mason - 8:00 PM ET Northeastern -1.5 500
Northeastern -

Creighton - 8:00 PM ET Creighton -11 500
Southern Illinois -

Stanford - 9:00 PM ET Stanford -2 500
Utah -

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, January 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Delaware - 7:00 PM ET Delaware +5.5 500
Drexel - Over 130.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +6 500
Louisville - Over 126 500

Alabama St. - 7:00 PM ET Alabama St. +12.5 500 POD
Texas Southern - Over 132.5 500

James Madison - 7:00 PM ET NC-Wilmington +2 500
NC-Wilmington -

Kansas - 9:00 PM ET West Virginia +8 500
West Virginia - Under 131.5 500

South Florida - 9:00 PM ET Marquette -11 500
Marquette - Under 122 500

Portland St. - 9:05 PM ET Eastern Washington -2 500
Eastern Washington -

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Kansas at West Virginia
The Jayhawks look to take advantage of a West Virginia team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 home games against teams with a winning road record. Kansas is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jayhawks favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, JANUARY 28

Game 715-716: Delaware at Drexel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 50.775; Drexel 59.058
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 8 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Drexel by 4 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-4 1/2); Under

Game 717-718: James Madison at NC-Wilmington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 52.782; NC-Wilmington 52.491
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: James Madison by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+2 1/2)

Game 719-720: Pittsburgh at Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 71.891; Louisville 76.452
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 4 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Louisville by 6; 122
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+6); Over

Game 721-722: Kansas at West Virginia (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 75.526; West Virginia 63.527
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 12; 125
Vegas Line: Kansas by 8 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-8 1/2); Under

Game 723-724: South Florida at Marquette (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 58.218; Marquette 71.462
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 13; 117
Vegas Line: Marquette by 10 1/2; 121
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-10 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Portland State at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 42.468; Eastern Washington 42.810
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+2)

Game 731-732: Alabama State at Texas Southern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama State 41.433; Texas Southern 53.776
Dunkel Line: Texas Southern by 12 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Texas Southern by 14 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama State (+14 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, January 28

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DELAWARE (8 - 11) at DREXEL (8 - 11) - 1/28/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DREXEL is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
DREXEL is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DREXEL is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games this season.
DREXEL is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
DREXEL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DREXEL is 3-1 against the spread versus DELAWARE over the last 3 seasons
DREXEL is 3-1 straight up against DELAWARE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JAMES MADISON (11 - 10) at UNC-WILMINGTON (8 - 11) - 1/28/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNC-WILMINGTON is 76-48 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
JAMES MADISON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
UNC-WILMINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus JAMES MADISON over the last 3 seasons
JAMES MADISON is 3-1 straight up against UNC-WILMINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (17 - 4) at LOUISVILLE (16 - 4) - 1/28/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS (18 - 1) at W VIRGINIA (9 - 10) - 1/28/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S FLORIDA (10 - 9) at MARQUETTE (14 - 4) - 1/28/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 236-192 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 236-192 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 183-139 ATS (+30.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MARQUETTE is 1-1 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
MARQUETTE is 2-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND ST (5 - 11) at E WASHINGTON (4 - 15) - 1/28/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E WASHINGTON is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
E WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games this season.
E WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND ST is 3-1 against the spread versus E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND ST is 3-1 straight up against E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ALABAMA ST (6 - 15) at TEXAS SOUTHERN (7 - 14) - 1/28/2013, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA ST is 2-1 against the spread versus TEXAS SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA ST is 3-2 straight up against TEXAS SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 28

-- Drexel won four of last five games vs Delaware, winning last four here by 10-8-13-16 points; Dragons won last three games, allowing 52.3 ppg, after 5-11 start, but they've lost two of three CAA home games. CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-9 vs spread. Delaware lost three games in row, by 3-4-14 points; they're 2-1 on CAA road, with favorites covering all three games. Blue Hens make just 28.6% behind arc.
-- James Madison won four of last six games vs NC-Wilmington; their win here LY was just their second in last seven visits here. Favorites are 7-1 vs spread in JMU's CAA games; Dukes are 1-3 as road underdogs, losing by 16-11-26 points. Seahawks won three of last four games; they won last two home games by 8-5 points. CAA home underdogs of 3 or less points are 0-5 vs spread.
-- Louisville lost its last three games, scoring 61 ppg, after its 16-1 start; Cardinals are 1-1-1 as Big East home favorite, winning by 18-26 points, losing to Syracuse. Pitt won its last four games, allowing 55.8 ppg; they grab 42% of their own missed shots (#4 in country). Panthers lost last three visits to Louisville, by 6-3-3 points. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-15 vs spread.

-- Kansas is 6-0 in Big X play, covering three of last four games, taking road wins by 14-5-4 points (1-2 as road favorite). West Virginia is 2-5 in last seven games, 1-2 at home in its first Big X season, losing home tilts by 1-10 points. WVU cannot shoot (29.2% from arc, 43.8% inside arc); their 43.8 eFG% is 312th in country; they're 0-8 vs teams in top 75. Big X home underdogs are 2-4 vs spread.
-- Marquette is 5-1 in Big East, with four wins by 7 or less points; they are 2-2 as home favorites, winning by 6-1-7-10 points. Eagles are 7-1 in last eight games vs USF, winning last three by 11-1-20 points. Bulls lost last four visits here, by 2-8-11-20. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 4-7 vs spread. USF is 1-2 as a Big East road dog, losing away games by 26-3-8 points.
-- Portland State won eight of its last nine games vs Eastern Washington, winning three of last four visits here. Eagles lost last four games overall, with last three all by 14+ points- they're 1-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 3-23 points (2-2). Vikings are 0-5 on Big Sky road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing by 3-7-17-9-13 points. Big Sky home favorites of 7 or less points are 15-6 against the spread.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Monday, January 28

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
DELAWARE vs. DREXEL
Delaware is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Drexel
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Delaware's last 6 games when playing on the road against Drexel
Drexel is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games
Drexel is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home

7:00 PM
JAMES MADISON vs. UNC WILMINGTON
James Madison is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against UNC Wilmington
James Madison is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
UNC Wilmington is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against James Madison
UNC Wilmington is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing James Madison

7:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. LOUISVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Louisville
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games at home
Louisville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

9:00 PM
KANSAS vs. WEST VIRGINIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas's last 5 games on the road
Kansas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
West Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
West Virginia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

9:00 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. MARQUETTE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games on the road
South Florida is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Marquette
Marquette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against South Florida
Marquette is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing South Florida

9:05 PM
PORTLAND STATE vs. EASTERN WASHINGTON
Portland State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Portland State is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Eastern Washingto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Washington's last 5 games
Eastern Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland State

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Monday, January 28

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Study group: Monday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
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Pittsburgh at (5) Louisville (-6)

Two Mondays ago, Louisville was anointed the nation’s top-ranked team for only the second time in school history. Now the No. 5 Cardinals are soaring down the rankings with a three-game losing skid entering Monday’s home contest against Pittsburgh. Losses to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown have created a sense of unexpected urgency as Louisville went from best team in the nation to being tied for fifth place in the Big East. The Panthers have won four consecutive contests. Pittsburgh routed DePaul 93-55 on Saturday and leads the Big East in scoring defense at 54.5 per game. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.

(2) Kansas at West Virginia (+9)

This is the third time in the last four seasons the Jayhawks have started 18-1 or better and the fifth time in 10 seasons under head coach Bill Self. Kansas isn't exactly sliding by in those wins either, averaging 74.6 points per game while allowing 58.8 for a Big 12-leading 15.8 scoring margin. The Mountaineers are 6-2 at home this season but have dropped two of their last three to Kansas State and Oklahoma. Ten different WVU players average 12-plus minutes per game and all 10 have started at least two games. West Virginia is outrebounding opponents 38.1 to 35.2 and also averages 7.4 steals per game. The Mountaineers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet

Monday, January 28

Pittsburgh at Louisville, 7:00 ET ESPN
Pittsburgh: 7-1 OVER when the total is 129.5 or less
Louisville: 11-1 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days

Kansas at West Virginia, 9:00 ET ESPN
Kansas: 23-10 ATS after 2 games where they were called for 15 or less fouls
West Virginia: 11-24 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch

January 28, 2013

Tuesday, Jan. 29

Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 14 Ohio State Buckeyes

The Badgers snapped a two-game skid this past Saturday with a 45-44 victory over Minnesota as 3 ½-point home favorites. They are now 14-6 SU this season and 6-12 ATS. The total stayed UNDER the 125-point line in that game and it has now stayed UNDER in six of their last seven contests. Jared Berggren leads the team in scoring with 12 points a game and Ryan Evans is adding 10.9 points and a team-high 7.8 rebounds a game. The team as a whole is shooting 43.5 percent from the floor.

Ohio State posted a pair of wins last week against Iowa and Penn State to improve to 15-4 SU and 5-2 in Big Ten play. It has covered the spread in five of its last eight games and is now 10-6-1 ATS overall. The Buckeyes are 11-1 SU (6-4 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games. Deshaun Thomas continues to put up some impressive totals with an average of 20 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. He is shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from three-point range.

Wednesday, Jan. 30

No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Duke bounced back from last Wednesday's stunning 27-point loss to Miami as a 2 ½-point road favorite with a 20-point victory over Maryland this past Saturday as a 12-point favorite at home. The Blue Devils are now 17-2 SU (10-8 ATS) and the total has gone OVER in their last four games. Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry continue to lead the way with a combined 33.1 points a game. Overall, the team is averaging 78.2 points a game while shooting 46.4 percent from the field.

The Demon Deacons fell to 3-4 SU in the ACC after losing to Georgia Tech 82-62 this past Saturday as 6 ½-point road underdogs. They are now just one game over .500 at 10-9 SU but still profitable ATS at 11-5-1. The total has gone OVER in their last two games after staying UNDER in five of their previous six outings. Travis McKie and C.J. Harris are each averaging around 15 points a game but the team as a whole is only scoring a total of 68.1 points.

Thursday, Jan. 31

No. 6 Arizona Wildcats vs. Washington Huskies

The Wildcats lost for just the second time this season with an 84-73 setback against UCLA as 8.5-point home favorites last Thursday. They quickly got back to their winning ways with Saturday's 74-50 pasting of USC that has the team 17-2 SU and 9-8 ATS overall. Arizona is 5-2 in the Pac-12 and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six games. It is averaging 75.5 points a game behind Mark Lyons' 14.9 points and Solomon Hill's 13.5-points. Hill is shooting 47.2 percent from the floor and 41.9 percent from three-point range.

Washington's current losing streak reached three games with Saturday's 81-76 loss to Oregon as a 7 ½-point road underdog. It is now 12-8 SU overall and 4-3 in conference play. The Huskies have gone 10-8 ATS this season and the total has now stayed UNDER in five of their last eight games. CJ Wilcox is pumping in 19 points a game but the team is ranked 128th in the nation in scoring with an average of 69.4 points.

Friday, Feb. 1

Milwaukee Panthers vs. Valparaiso Crusaders

The Panthers have just one SU win in their last seven games and are winless on the road this season at 0-9. Overall, they are 5-16 SU and a costly 6-12-1 ATS with the total staying UNDER in four of their last seven games. Milwaukee is ranked near the bottom of Division I with an average of 61.7 points a game while shooting just 37.6 percent from the field. Paris Gully is the team's leading scorer with 15.2 points a game and Jordan Aaron is a close second with a 14.3-point scoring average.

Valparaiso moved to the top of the Horizon League standings at 6-1 with a 73-61 victory over Green Bay last Wednesday as an 8 ½-point home favorite. It is now 16-5 SU on the year and 11-7 ATS. The total has gone OVER in its last five games. The Crusaders are averaging 70.1 points a game and shooting 46.4 percent from the floor. Ryan Broekhoff leads the team with 17.2 points and 8.5 rebounds a game.

[StarDust Bum]

Conference Trends - Part II

January 29, 2013

Part I

Following is Part II of our team trends update, beginning with the Ivy League. All point-spread and "totals" trends include results thru Sunday, January 27.

IVY

Brown...The Bears have failed to cover their last four away. Columbia...President Obama's alma mater is "over" its last three at home in Morningside Heights. Cornell...Tough going for Bill Courtney's Big Red, dropping 7 of its last 10 vs. the number. Dartmouth...Though the Big Green performed admirably when pushing Harvard into OT on Saturday in Cambridge, that was Dartmouth's only cover in its last six board games (1-4-1). Harvard...Lots going on with Tommy Amaker's defending Ivy champs and loop favorites; the Crimson are 6-1 as a dog this season and 5-0-1 vs. the line their last five away from home, also 6-2-1 vs. the points their last nine overall. Penn...The Quakers are finding some traction, covering four of their last five overall and their last four as a visitor as well. Princeton...Mitch Henderson's Tigers have underachieved as chalk, covering just one of their last six as a favorite (even including a recent win over blood rival Penn). Yale...The Eli are "over" 5-1 in their last six.

METRO-ATLANTIC

Canisius...Jim Baron's Golden Griffs have been streaky this season; after some good early work, they've dropped 6 of their last 8 vs. the number. The Buffalo branch of the Jesuits has also gone "under" 7 of its last 8. Fairfield...Tough going lately for Sydney Johnson's Stags, who have covered just one of their last seven. Iona...Tim Cluess' Gaels are playing the same uptempo style as they have in recent years, helping Iona to a 10-2 "over" mark its last 12. Loyola-Maryland...Despite their Sunday loss vs. Iona, Jimmy Patsos' Greyhounds are offering decent value lately, covering 5 of their last 7. Manhattan...Even without injured high scorer George Beamon, the Jaspers have covered 6 of their last 8 after Sunday's upset win at Rider. Marist...Tough year for the Red Foxes, but they have covered 4 of their last five. Niagara...Calvin Murphy's alma mater has covered 7 of its last 9 games after Sunday's mild upset win at nearby Canisius. Rider...Though the Broncs have covered 7 of their last 9, they might be cooling off after dropping a pair at home in Lawrenceville over the weekend vs. Canisius and Rider. Rider is also "under" 10-3 its last 13. Siena...The deeply-discounted Saints have covered 3 of their last 4. St. Peter's...The Peacocks' plume has been camouflaged by a 1-8 spread mark in their last nine mostly root-canal games.

MID-AMERICAN

Akron...Note that the hot Zips have won their last 11 games SU. Ball State...The Cards are 5-1 vs. the line their last six away and also "over" 5-2 their last 7 overall. Bowling Green...Lots going on with the Falcons, "over" 6-1 in their last 7, but also 2-5-1 their last 8 vs. the number. Buffalo...Reggie Witherspoon's Bulls are just 1-6 vs. the line their last 7 at home and 2-6 overall vs. their last 8 vs. the number (but with covers in their last 2). Central Michigan...Keno Davis' Chips are "over" 9-3 their last 12 overall. Eastern Michigan...Keep an eye on the Eagles, who have covered their last 5 overall and are 5-1 vs. the points their last six at home in Ypsilanti. Kent State...The Golden Flashes are 6-1 vs. the number their last 8 away. Miami-Ohio...Nothing great this season for new HC John Cooper, as the RedHawks are 3-7-2 vs. the points their last 12 overall. Northern Illinois...The Huskies are offering some value on the road with their deep discounts form the oddsmakers, covering 7 of their last 9 away. NIU also "under" 12-4 its last 16. Ohio...The Bobcats are not handling the pointspread premiums being placed upon them, covering just 1 of their last 5. Toledo... The Rockets are 4-1 their last 5 away and "over" 4 of their last 5 overall. Western Michigan...The under-the-radar Broncos have covered 4 of their last 5

MISSOURI VALLEY

Bradley...Fade the Braves, who have failed to cover their last seven. Creighton...Sunday's easy win and cover vs. SIU broke a string of three straight spreads Ls by the Bluejays. Creighton is also "under" 10-4 its last 14. Drake...The Bulldogs have a few things going on, including "over" 9-2-2 their last 13 and a 1-4 mark their last five away from home. Evansville...The Purple Aces have provided good value, covering 5 of their last 7 overall, and 7 of their last 9 as a dog. The Aces have also covered their last three as host. Illinois State...Not much normalcy in Normal, as the Redbirds have dropped 8 of their last 9 vs. the number, including their last five as host. Indiana State...The value-laden Sycamores are 11-2 their last 13 on the board. Missouri State...Paul Lusk's Bears are quietly surging, covering 8 of their last 9 overall as well as their last four on the road. Northern Iowa...The Panthers have covered 4 of their last 5. Southern Illinois...Fade Barry Hinson's Salukis, just 3-6 their last nine overall and 1-4 their last 5 at home in Carbondale. Wichita State...Gregg Marshall's Wheatshockers are mostly handling the pointspread premiums placed upon them, covering 6 of their last 9 overall and 4 of their last 5 at home in the Roundhouse.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Air Force...Don't overlook the Falcons, who have covered seven of their last nine, as well as their last three at home in Clune Arena. Boise State...The Broncos are suddenly losing traction, with no covers in their last four. Boise is also "over" 9-3 its last 12. Colorado State...Larry Eustachy's Rams are 6-2-1 vs. the number their last nine and "under" in 8 of their last 11. Fresno State...The tedious Bulldogs are nonetheless "over" in 5 of their last 7. Also beware laying points with Rodney Terry's team, which is 0-3 as chalk this term. Nevada...David Carter's erratic Wolf Pack is 6-11-1 vs. the points this season. Nevada is also "under" 5-1-1 its last seven at the Lawlor Center. New Mexico...The Lobos are definitely trending "under" (10-1), although we got the point before their 34-point "explosion" on Saturday at San Diego State. Steve Alford's bunch is also 4-1-1 vs. the points its last six at The Pit. San Diego State...Aztecs "over" 7-4-2 their last 13 overall. Wyoming...The Cowboys, minus suspended star G Luke Martinez, have been faltering, covering just one of their last four. Note Wyo also "under" 8 in a row.

OHIO VALLEY

Austin Peay...It's a down year for the Guvs, just 1-13 SU their last 14 games. The Peay is also "over" 6-3 its last 9. Belmont...New to the Valley this season, Rick Byrd's Nashville-based Belmont has won its last 8 SU and is also "over" 5-1 its last 6. Eastern Kentucky...The Colonels have provided some decent under-the-radar value lately, covering 5 of their last 6. EKU is also "over" 4 in a row. Eastern Illinois...The Panthers have been streaky, covering their last three after dropping their previous four vs. the number. Earlier in the season, EIU had another 4-game spread slide. Jacksonville State...The Gamecocks have been "over" in 7 of 8, and 9 of their last 11 games. Morehead State..Stirring, the Eagles have covered 4 in a row. Murray State...The Racers, last season's OVC champs, are just 3-7 their last 10 on the board. Also "under" 7-1-1 their last 9. SE Missouri State...Dickie Nutt's Redhawks are struggling, with no covers their last five on the road and just 1-9 overall their last 10 overall on the board. UT-Martin...The Skyhawks have won just 2 of their last 15 SU; also "under" 6-3 last nine. Tennessee State...The Tigers have covered 6 of their last 8, but note that includes dropping their last 2 vs. the number. They're also "over" their last 5. Tennessee Tech...The Eagles are 2-8 their last 10 on the board, also "under" 7-2 last 9.

PAC-12

Arizona...The Cats are just 2-6 vs. the spread their last 8 on the board, also "under" 10-3-1 their last 14. Arizona State...Herb Sendek's Sun Devils are off a rousing win on Saturday vs. UCLA and have covered 5 of their last 6 overall, including three straight on the road. ASU is also "under" 8-1-1 its last 10. Cal...The disappointing Bears are 3-9 their last 12 vs. the spread as well as "under" 8-2 their last 10. Colorado...Tad Boyle's Buffs have steadied with three straight wins and covers after a previous slump. They've also covered 6 of 8 at the Coors Center in Boulder. Oregon...The surprising Ducks are also "surprisingly" 1-4 their last 5 vs. the number, though they've won nine games in a row SU. Also 7-3-1 "over" their last 11. Oregon State...Craig Robinson's OSU is covering some numbers (4-1 last 5) but also losing games outright (1-4 SU those last five). The Beavers are also "under" 6 of their last 8. Southern Cal...Another tumultuous season at Troy, with the third in-season coaching change in recent memory at Jefferson & Figueroa. SC is only 5-11-1 vs. the number its last 17 since early in the season. Stanford...Even after Sunday's win at Utah, the Cardinal is 3-6 its last 9 vs. the spread and just 1-5 against the points its last six on the road. UCLA...The Bruins failed again as road chalk on Saturday at ASU and are 0-5 in that role this season. Ben Howland's team is also "under" 6-2 its last 8. Utah...The fading Utes have covered just 1 of their last five; they're also "over" in 4 of those last 5. Washington...Lorenzo Romar's Huskies are 5-2 vs. the line their last seven. U-Dub is also playing at a slower tempo than in recent years, reflected in a 6-3 "under" mark its last nine. Washington State...Ken Bone's Cougars are 4-2 their last six as a dog.

SEC

Alabama...The Tide is "under" 8-2 its last 10 and also 2-5 its last 7 as chalk. Arkansas...The Hogs have yet to win SU in six games away from home this season and have failed to cover their last three as a visitor as well. Auburn...Tony Barbee's Tigers are quietly providing some decent spread value, covering 4 of their last 5 at Auburn Arena and 7 of their last 9 overall. Auburn is also "over" 6-3 its last 9. Florida...The rampaging Gators have won and covered their last seven overall, also covers their last five on the road. Georgia...Just when we're ready to count out mark Fox's Bulldogs, they spring an upset like last Saturday's vs. Texas A&M. Georgia is also "under" its last three after "overs" in 7 of previous 8. Kentucky...Coach Cal's Cats are just 1-5 vs. the number their last six on the board. LSU...Johnny Jones' Tigers have covered their last two but are still only 4-7 their last 11 on the board. Ole Miss...The surging Rebs are 5-1 vs. the line at home this season and 6-2 overall their last 8 against the number (though failing to cover in their last two). Rebs also "under" 4-1 last five. Mississippi State...No covers last three at home or last four overall for Bulldogs, also "over" their last three. Missouri...SEC newcomer Tigers 4-1 last five vs. line at home and "over" 5-2-1 last 8 overall. South Carolina...Frank Martin's Gamecocks have covered their last four as a dog and 5 of their last 7 overall. SC also "under" 7-2 its last 9. Tennessee...Lots going on with Cuonzo Martin's Vols, who are 5-1 their last six as a dog but only 1-4-1 their last six as chalk. Texas A&M...Ags "under" 9-1 their last 10. Vanderbilt...Dores "over" 3 of last 4 but still "under" 10 of last 14. Vandy also covered its last three as chalk.

SOUTHERN

Appalachian State...Jason Capel's Mountaineers are "under" 8-4 last 12. They've also dropped last 4 vs. line. Chattanooga...The Mocs are "over" 7-0-1 their last 8. College of Charleston...Cougs 1-3 vs. line last 4 at John Kresse Arena. Davidson...Wildcats "under" 6-3-1 last 10. Elon...Matt Matheny's Fighting Phoenix are 7-3-1 their last 11 vs. line, also "over" 7-1 last 8. Furman...The Paladins have covered 6 of their last 8 on road. Georgia Southern...The Eagles are 4-1 their last 5 as a dog. The Citadel...Chuck Driesell's Bulldogs have covered 4 of last 5 after dropping previous seven vs. number. UNC-Greensboro...Spartans only 3-7 vs. line last 10, also "under" 6-1 last 7. Western Carolina...Catamounts only 1-4 straight-up last five at home. Wofford...Mike Young's Terriers just 2-6-1 their last 9 on the board.

SUMMIT

IPFW...No covers last five for Tony Jasick's Mastodons. IUPUI...Jags just 1-4 vs. line last five; also "over" 4 of last 5. UM-Kansas City...Kangaroos have hopped to a 7-3 "under" mark last ten, also 4-1 last five away. Nebraska-Omaha...Not offering bad value at all, the Mavericks are 5-3 their last 8 on the board. North Dakota State...The Bison are 1-4 their last five vs. the number after a 9-1 spread run earlier this season. Saul Phillips' side also "under" 11-2 its last 13 overall. Oakland...Greg Kampe's Golden Grizzlies are "over" six in a row. South Dakota State...Scott Nagy's jumpin' Jackrabbits are 4-0 their last four and 7-2 vs. the number their last nine overall. Western Illinois...Jim Molinari's rugged Leathernecks are 12-4 their last 16 on the board.

SUN BELT

Arkansas State...Red Wolves 7-3 vs. line last 10, also "under" 4-1 last five. Arkansas-Little Rock...Trojans 2-7 vs. spread last nine away. Florida Atlantic...Mike Jarvis' Owls "under" 5 of last 6, and 8 of last 11 overall. Florida International...The Golden Panthers are "under" 5 of their last 7 for new HC Richard Pitino. UL-Monroe...The lowly Warhawks have no covers in their last three, or four of their last five overall. They had covered 6 of 7 previously. UL-Lafayette...Bob Marlin's Ragin' Cajuns are struggling vs. the line, just 1-6 their last seven overall and no covers their last six as a visitor. Middle Tennessee...Kermit Davis' Blue Raiders are 6-1 their last 7 at home vs. the number, also "over" 4-1 last 5. North Texas...Mean Green "under" 5-1 last six for new HC Tony Benford. UNT also just 1-4 vs. line last five on road. South Alabama...Ronnie Arrow's Jags have covered 4 of their last five, also "under" 4-1 last five. Troy...Don Maestri's Trojans 5-1 their last 6 on the board, including three straight covers as host. Also "over" 5-2 last seven. Western Kentucky...Ray Harper's Hilltoppers are just 1-6 their last seven on the board, also "under" five in a row.

WCC

BYU...Cougs 5-1 last six vs. line at Marriott Center, also "under" 10-4 last 14 overall. Gonzaga...Surprisingly, Zags only 1-5 last six vs. line at home. Also "under" last four overall. Loyola-Marymount...Lions no covers last four, or 11 of 16 this season for wild man HC Max Good. Pepperdine...Decent value all season, including covers last three at home in Malibu and 5 of last 7 away from Firestone Fieldhouse. Portland...No covers last four or in six of last seven for Eric Reveno's Pilots. San Diego...HC Bill Grier is going to find himself on the hot seat if Toreros can't shake recent slump (no wins or covers last three). USD also "under" 7-1 last 8. San Francisco...Dons have rediscovered early-season spread magic, covering 8 of last 10. They've also covered their last six on the road. Santa Clara...No place like the road in Broncos games; SCU 7-1 vs. number away, but 1-7 vs. spread last 8 at Leavey Center. Saint Mary's...Gaels 4-1 vs. line last five away.

WAC

Be aware of some of the staggering spread win numbers the road teams have posted in WAC play! Denver...Joe Scott's Pioneers are 5-1 their last 6 vs. the spread, also "under" 6-2 their last 8. Idaho...Road team has covered last nine Vandals games. La Tech...Road team has covered last five La Tech games; Bulldogs also 11-5 vs. spread last 16 overall. New Mexico State...Marvin Menzies' Aggies are finally stirring, winn ing their last seven SU and covering last four. San Jose State...The Spartans' season has gone pear-shaped since the suspension of star G James Kinney; SJSU no wins last five or covers last four, also "under" last five as well for George Nessman's team. Seattle...Road team is 8-1 in last nine Redhawks' games; the Seattle Jesuits are also "over" 5 of their last seven. Texas State...Bobcats have covered four straight, but note road team 9-0 vs. spread in last nine TSU games. UT-Arlington...Road team 8-0-1 vs. spread in last nine games involving Scott Cross' Movin' Mavs. UTA also "under" 9-4 last 13. UT-San Antonio...Roadrunners "over" 8-1 last 9. Utah State...Injury-plagued Utags no covers in last seven.

[StarDust Bum]

Conference Trends - Part I

January 26, 2013

We will begin with a point-spread trend and angle review with ten conferences; proceeding alphabetically, beginning with the Atlantic Coast Conference thru the Horizon League. In Part II, we pick up with the Ivy League and the rest of the conferences. Though not every entry has developed a trend that merits review, many teams in fact do have some sort of point-spread or “totals” angle worth noting; we’ll list the ones that have caught our eyes.

All point-spread and “totals” trends include results thru Wednesday, Jan. 23.

ATLANTIC COAST

Boston College...The Eagles have covered six of their last seven after their midweek game vs. Maryland; BC is also “over” 7-2 its last nine. Clemson...The Tigers could be in the early stage of something good, covering their last three games. Brad Brownell’s tempo-controlling preference has also resulted in four straight Clemson “unders” as well. Georgia Tech...After Wednesday’s loss to North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets have dropped their last six vs. the spread. Perhaps we were wise after all to wonder if the supposed improvements of Brian Gregory’s team in pre-league play were due to a relatively-soft non-ACC slate. Maryland...The Terps have hit a few high notes in recent weeks (such as the home win over NC State) but have still dropped their last five against the spread. North Carolina...Are the Tar Heels finally stirring? That’s three wins and covers in a row for Roy Williams’ Chapel Hill bunch after Wednesday’s home romp past aforementioned Georgia Tech. UNC is also “under” 5-1 its last six games. North Carolina State...Look out for some fraying around the edge s with the erratic Wolfpack, who have lost 2 of their last 3 outright while failing to cover the number in each of those games. NCS is also a poor 1-6 its last seven as chalk after the midweek loss down Tobacco Road at underdog Wake Forest. Rumors of some internal discord involving players and HC Mark Gottfried? Virginia...Tony Bennett’s Cavs have offered good spread value all season, standing 9-3 vs. the line their last 12 on the board. Virginia Tech...It’s gone a bit pear-shaped lately for the Hokies, whose quick start under new HC James Johnson seems a long time ago; VPI has covered just one of its last eight (1-6-1) overall. Wake Forest...Don’t look now, but the Demon Deacons have covered 8 of their last 9 after the midweek upset over NC State at Winston- Salem.

ATLANTIC 10

Butler...Brad Stevens’ Bulldogs lost a tough one on Wednesday at La Salle but have still covered their last five in a row. Duquense...The bottom might be falling out for the Iron Dukes, who have dropped seven spread decisions in a row. Fordham...While acknowledging the midweek beating the Rams absorbed at Dayton, also note that Fordham is unbeaten vs. the line (3-0-1) at its quaint Rose Hill Gym in The Bronx. George Washington...Mike Lonergan’s Colonials have quietly offered superb spread value, covering 10 of their last 12 on the board. La Salle...Even after the Wednesday win over Butler, John Giannini’s Explorers have still covered only 1 of their last 7 games. UMass...The Minutemen have covered just 2 of their last 7 on the board. They’re also “under” 5-2 in their last seven. Richmond...Aracnophobia indeed for backers of the Spiders, who have covered just 3 of their last 15 on the board. Saint Louis...The Bills are “under” 5-2 in their last seven games. St. Joseph’s...After the midweek loss to St. Bona, Phil Martelli’s Hawks have dropped their last four spread decisions at home. St. Bonaventure...Note the Bonnies’ 9-2 “over” mark their last 11 games. Temple...The Owls, who didn’t come close to covering a hefty number at home vs. Big Five rival Penn at midweek, are just 4-8 their last 12 as chalk and a mere 2-6 vs. the line at home this term.

BIG EAST

Cincinnati...The Bearcats have been trending “under” (5-1 last 6) lately. They’re also 6-1 vs. the line their last seven away from Fifth Third Arena. DePaul...The Blue Demons have covered just 2 of their last 7 while also going “over” in 7 of their last 9. Georgetown...The Hoyas reminded us on Monday at Notre Dame that they can be worth a look as a dog; they’re 3-1 as the “short” this season, and also “under” their last three on the road. Louisville...Keep an eye on the Cards, who have not only failed to cover, but lost outright their last two after ascending to the top of the polls and recording a 6-2-1 spread mark their nine preceding games. Notre Dame...The Irish have been in a funk, dropping their last four vs. the number. Notre Dame is also “under” in its last five games. Pittsburgh...Note “overs” in 6 of the Panthers’ last seven games. Pitt has also failed to cover its last three at home. Providence...Don’t shortchange Ed Cooley’s Friars, who have covered 4 of their last 5. Providence is also “over” 9-1-1 its last 11. Rutgers...No place like the road in Scarlet Knight games, as the visiting team has covered in five straight. Mike Rice’s team is also “under” 6-2 its last 8. Seton Hall...The Pirates have covered just one of their last five (1-3-1) as chalk. They’re also “under” 4-1 their last five. South Florida...We note “overs” in the Bulls last two games because it contrasts from the “unders” in their preceding five games. St. John’s...Steve Lavin’s Red Storm is “under” its last six games, while also covering 4 of its last 5 as a dog. Syracuse...Jim Boeheim is “under” 7-4 in his last 11 games. Villanova...Quietly, Jay Wright’s Nova has covered 9 of its last 12 games.

BIG SKY

Eastern Washington...The Eagles have dropped 8 of their last 10 vs. the line. They’re also “under” in five straight and 9 of 11. Idaho State...With “totals” posted so low because the Bengals have so little offense, ISU has nonetheless gone “over” in 5 of its last 7. The Bengals also haven’t covered their last three as chalk (0-2-1). Montana...The Grizzlies have won their last 8 SU, roughly coinciding with the return to action of star G Will Cherry. Wayne Tinkle’s team is also “over” in 4 straight and 5 of its last 6. Montana State...The Bobcats have covered 5 of their last 7 on the road. North Dakota...The Fighting Sioux are mildly surging, covering 5 of their last 7. UND is also “over” 9-3 its last 12. Northern Arizona...The Lumberjacks, who absorbed some wicked beatings before New Year’s, are showing mildly improvement for first-year HC Jack Murphy, covering their last three (as an underdog in each). Northern Colorado...While the Bears are only 3-11 vs. the line this season, they have covered their last two outings. Portland State...The Vikings have a lot going on; 0-3 their last 3 overall, 2-5 their last 7 away, but 4-1 their last 5 at home in quaint Stott Gym. Sacramento State...The Hornets are “under” 7-2 their last 9; Sac State has also recently snapped an extended spread losing streak, but has still covered just 2 of its last 10 overall (2-6-2). Southern Utah...The Thunderbirds have covered 5 of their last 7. Weber State...It’s been “overs” in 5 of the last 7 for the Wildcats.

BIG TEN

Illinois...Though the Illini won on Tuesday at Nebraska, they’re only 2-7 vs. the spread in their last 9 games. Indiana...The highly-ranked Hoosiers have covered just 1 of their last 6 games; they’re also “under” 4 of their last 5. Iowa...Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes are providing good value, covering 9 of their last 11 games. They’re also “under” in 6 of their last 8 outings. Michigan...The high-powered Wolverines are “over” in 6 of their last 8. Nebraska...Getting benefit from some inflated numbers, the Cornhuskers have covered their last three away from Lincoln. Northwestern...Just when the Wildcats looked ready to drop off of the map, they’ve now covered three in a row for HC Bill Carmody, with outright wins as a dog vs. Illinois and Minnesota. They’re also “under” four straight. Ohio State...Thad Matta’s Buckeyes are “under” 8-1 their last 9. Purdue...Providing decent value lately, the Boilermakers have covered their last 3. Matt Painter’s team is also “over” 6-2-1 its last 9. Wisconsin...No surprise that the Badgers are “under” 8-3 their last 11 for the pride of Chester, PA, HC Bo Ryan.

BIG 12

Baylor...The Bears are “under” four straight. Kansas...Bill Self’s Jayhawks are :under” their last 4 and 6 of their last 7. Kansas State...Bruce Weber’s Wildcats have covered just one of their last five (1-3-1 away). Oklahoma State...The Cowboys are 7-2 vs. the line their last nine, but note they’ve failed to cover their last two. Texas...Lots going on with the Longhorns; 6-1 their last seven as an underdog, but 0-5 SU their last five. TCU...Trent Johnson’s slow-paced Horned Frogs are “under” 7-3 their last ten. Texas Tech..Red Raiders “under” 8-1 their last nine after another low-scoring game at midweek vs. Iowa State. West Virginia...The Mounties’ midweek win over TCU was their first cover as chalk after six straight losses in role.

BIG WEST

Cal Poly...Mustangs “over” 6-1 their last 7 while also covering 5 of their last 6. Cal State Fullerton...Slipping Titans no covers in their last three, also :”over” 5-1 their last six. Hawaii...Warriors have covered their first three on the mainland this season, but have dropped 6 of their last 9 vs. the line in Honolulu. Long Beach State...Ascending 49ers now 4-1 vs. lien last 5. Cal State Northridge...Bobby Braswell’s Matadors have dropped six straight vs. the number; remember, CSN had at one time covered seven straight early in the season. Pacific...Bob Thomason’s Tigers have offered good value all season, covering 5 of their last 6 and 10 of 14 overall. UCSB...Bob Williams’ Gauchos are “over” 5-1 their last six. UC Davis...It’s been best to shade the road team in games involving Kimberly Guilfoyle’s alma mater UCD, as the visitor has covered in five straight Aggie games. UC Irvine...Anteaters “over” 5-1 their last six. UC Riverside...The Highlanders are “over” their last four games.

COLONIAL

Delaware...Blue Hens “over” 7-2 their last nine. Drexel...Poor spread value all season, covering just 4 of 18 after another spread loser (though SU win) at midweek vs. Hofstra. The Dragons had earlier dropped 8 straight vs. the number. George Mason...Paul Hewitt’s Patriots have covered 4 of their last 5 away from Fairfax. Georgia State...On the upswing, the Panthers have covered their last four. Ron Hunter’s team is also “over” 8-3 its last 11. Hofstra...Remarkable spread turnaround for Mo Cassara’s suspension-depleted Pride, which has covered seven in row; those last seven are all “under” as well. James Madison. How about eight straight “unders” for the Dukes after their Wednesday win over Delaware? Towson...The Tigers have cooled a bit with SU and spread losses their last two; Pat Skerry’s improved team had covered 8 of its previous 10. William & Mary...Snakebit Tribe 1-6 vs. line last 7, but that “W” was in most-recent game on Wednesday vs. Northeastern. W&M also “over” 7-3 last 10.

CONFERENCE USA

East Carolina...The Pirates have covered 4 of their last 5. Houston...Fade the Cougars, with no covers in four straight after Wednesday’s humbling loss vs. Tulsa. UH also “over” 5-1 last 6. Marshall...A spread disaster this season even before the wipeout loss on Wednesday inflicted by Southern Miss; Herd now 2-11-1 vs. line this season. Marshall also “over” 4-1 last five. Memphis...Road rage of a different sort involving Josh Pastner’s Tigers; the visiting team has covered in nine straight Memphis games, with the Tigers no covers their last six at FedEx Forum. Rice...Limited Owls just 1-4 vs. line last five; Ben Braun’s team also “over” 4-1 last 5. SMU...Early-season value has disappeared from Larry Brown’s Mustangs, who have covered just 4 of their last 11 overall and 1 of their last 6 on road. Southern Miss...Golden Eagles 6-1 vs. line last seven. UTEP...After a slow start, Tim Floyd’s Miners have covered 8 of their last 9, including their last six home games at the Haskins Center. Tulsa...Don’t look now, but Danny Manning’s Golden Hurricane has covered 6 of its last 7. UAB...The Blazers have offered poor value all season; no covers last 4 and just 4-12 vs. line overall.

HORIZON

Cleveland State...Vikings no covers their last 3 or 9 of last 11 after midweek loss to Loyola-Chicago; Gary Waters’ side has also dropped 7 straight vs. number on road. Detroit...Ray McCallum’s Titans have a couple of blowout wins in Horizon play but overall are just 2-8-1 as chalk; they are 4-1 as dog, however. Green Bay...Fighting Phoenix have covered 5 of last 6 at home in the Resch Center, and are “under’ 10-3 this season. UIC...Howard Moore’s Flames are 12-6 vs. the line this season, but note early 8-game cover streak. UIC has covered 6 of last 7 at home but dropped corresponding 5 of last 6 vs. vs. spread away. Loyola-Chicago...Ramblers have been streaky, with 4-game cover streak followed by 4-game losing streak vs. line prior to Wednesday’s win at Cleveland State. Milwaukee...Rob Jeter’s Panthers are 6-11-1 vs. line this season; they’re also “under” 7-3 their last ten. Valparaiso...Bryce Drew’s Crusaders have covered 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 9 after Wednesday’s win over Green Bay; they’re also “over” their last five. Wright State...Even after Wednesday’s loss at Youngstown, the Raiders are 8-2 vs. the line their last ten (and six straight covers at home in the Nutter Center). Youngstown State...Penguins just 3-8-1 last 11 on board despite Wednesday’s win over Wright State.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Some college basketball knowledge......

13) WAC—Louisiana Tech is 18-3, 9-0 under rising coaching star Michael White (if Andy Kennedy were to move up from Ole Miss, Rebel alum White makes sense there); Denver’s Princeton offense is tough to prep for, New Mexico State has best inside game (rebounding 38.7% of its misses in WAC games), Utah State has major injury issues.

12) Horizon—Valparaiso has two-game lead, due to win at Detroit, when they won after trailing 50-32 at half. Detroit has best player (McCallum), Green Bay blocks 17.7% of opponents’ shots, Wright State forces turnovers 23.5% of time.

11) C-USA—Southern Miss/Memphis are both unbeaten in league play; USM is a juggernaut, making 43.9% of 3’s, forcing turnovers 28.1% of time in league games. Memphis is making 57% of shots inside arc. Central Florida’s (14-5, 4-1) Keith Clanton might be best player in league.

10) WCC—Gonzaga is 6-0, leads league in eFG% on both sides of ball; they played seven non-league games vs top 100 teams, plus Davidson/West Virginia (usually top 100 teams), so they’re battle-tested enough to survive challenges from lesser league rivals. As usual, St Mary’s (57.3% on 2-point shots), BYU (turning ball over least while playing fastest tempo) are prime contenders.

9) MVC—Creighton is offensive machine (60.7 eFG% leads country) but Bluejays trail defensively-stout Wichita State by a game. Shockers are rebounding 39.9% of own misses in MVC play. Right now, looks like these will be only two teams in NCAAs, unless there’s an upset in conference tournament at Arch Madness in St Louis.

8) A-16—New kids Butler/VCU are leading league first time around; it is stupid to have 16 teams in a league, but this is only year for that (Charlotte/ Temple leave after this year). LaSalle had huge week last week, but lack of inside game hurts them on road. Saint Louis is inspired playing for its deceased coach; GW is team of future in this conference.

7) SEC—Ole Miss is 17-2, 6-0, turning ball over less, getting to foul line more than any team in league; is Kentucky's visit tonight biggest home game in Rebel history? Florida’s eFG% is 39.2%- some think they’re best team in country. Rest of league is rebuilding, including Kentucky (forcing turnovers only 15.3% of time in SEC).

6) Big X— West Virginia/Texas are combined 3-10 in league, so other than Kansas (get steal or blocked shot 28.7% of time), Baylor (38.4% behind arc behind premiere guard Jackson), no one here is guaranteed an at-large bid. Texas gets PG Kabongo back in two weeks; will it be too late?

5) Pac-12—Oregon is surprising 7-0 in league, but now PG Artis is hurt; freshman PG Carson has Arizona State at 16-4, 5-2, big improvement from LY’s 10-21, when he was ineligible. Arizona (17-2, 5-2) is near top, as always, but lack of a true PG will doom them in March; Ben Howland has improved UCLA (16-5, 6-2) playing fastest-paced games in league.

4) ACC—Miami beat Duke by 27, Florida State by 24 last week; if their uniforms were blue and said “DUKE” on front, they’d be a top 5 team. Hurricanes’ eFG% is 38.6, #1 in ACC.

3) MWC—Yes, this is #3 league in America right now; four teams look to be in, barring a collapse. No one in this league is a pushover, not even Air Force, which lost by only 3 to Wichita State. UNLV would be lot more dangerous if they had a legit PG. San Diego State trailed 20-9 at half in Wyoming, then held New Mexico to 34 points for whole game Saturday.

2) Big East—Everyone’s going their separate ways after this year; will be very weird seeing Syracuse play in ACC. Orange (18-2, 6-1) seem to be best team this year, with Louisville losing three of its last four games. Marquette (14-4, 5-1) always seems to over-achieve.

1) Big Dozen—Think very highly of both Michigan teams; not that sold on Indiana club that didn’t play true road game until New Year’s Eve.

Liked Minnesota a lot, but now they’ve lost four games in row, all by 8 or less points. Wisconsin’s odd system is one you’ll want to avoid on first weekend of tournament. Ohio State is 2-3 vs top 50 teams, and they almost lost at home to Michigan after leading 29-8. Wolverines are real good, but a Final Four team salts games like that away.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wisconsin at Ohio State
The Badgers are coming off a 45-44 win over Minnesota and look to build on their 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Wisconsin is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 29

Game 509-510: Vanderbilt at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 58.970; Tennessee 65.695
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 8 1/2; 118
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+8 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: NC State at Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 69.121; Virginia 70.810
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Virginia by 3 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+3 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Georgia Tech at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 57.745; Clemson 67.428
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 6
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-6)

Game 515-516: Wisconsin at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 70.576; Ohio State 74.594
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 4; 123
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 6 1/2; 119 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+6 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: Indiana State at Wichita State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 60.609; Wichita State 73.558
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 13
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-12)

Game 519-520: Northern Iowa at Evansville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 60.362; Evansville 62.038
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Evansville

Game 521-522: Illinois State at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 58.271; Bradley 55.524
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 3
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+5 1/2)

Game 523-524: North Carolina at Boston College (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 66.038; Boston College 62.383
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 150
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 5; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+5); Over

Game 525-526: Kentucky at Mississippi (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 70.575; Mississippi 72.360
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2; 143
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+3 1/2); Under

Game 527-528: Nebraska at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 57.715; Minnesota 74.631
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 17; 125
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 19; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+19); Over

Game 529-530: Nevada at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 54.897; UNLV 71.805
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 17; 141
Vegas Line: UNLV by 14 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-14 1/2); Under