The Bum's 2012-2013 College Football Regular and Bowl Games Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Here you go......the line moved in our favor......going to use all 4 in a parlay....

Parlay of the Year

Wisconsin - 5:00 PM ET Stanford -4 500 GOY

Stanford - Over 47 500

Northern Illinois - 8:30 PM ET Florida State -14 500

Florida State - Over 59 500

[StarDust Bum]

Totals are killing me with these last two games......owell tomorrow is another day.....look for another BIG Play tomorrow.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sharps take UL early in Sugar Bowl

Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators (-13, 45.5)

After a busy holiday season, filled with multiple bowl matchups each day, bettors get a standalone BCS bowl game on Jan. 2 – the AllState Sugar Bowl between the Louisville Cardinals and the Florida Gators.

Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 15-point favorites at some books but sharps quickly jumped on the Big East’s representative in the BCS.

“The only sharp money seen on this side came in at Louisville +14,” an oddsmaker at BetDSI.com told Covers. "The rest of the betting action on the spread has been the public backing Florida at -13.”

According to BetDSI.com, the action on the Gators is at more than a 3-to-1 ticket count and a 2-to-1 ratio in terms of total handle.

As for the total, books opened with the number at 45.5 and it has remained steady for the most part. Some online markets have moved to 46 and the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas was dealing 46 before being bet back down to 45.5.




NCAAF

Wednesday, January 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sugar Bowl: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators (-14, 45.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Wednesday, January 2, 2013
WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. No. 4 Florida looks to cap a near-perfect season with its fifth consecutive bowl victory as it faces No. 18 Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. This will be the seventh time the Gators have played in a BCS bowl - the highest number of BCS appearances among SEC teams and tied for third-best in the nation. With a win, Florida's all-time BCS bowl win total would increase to five, giving it the highest total in the history of the BCS.

2. The Cardinals edged out Rutgers in the Big East title game on a late field goal by freshman John Wallace to secure their first appearance in the Sugar Bowl and the second BCS appearance in school history. With an upset over Florida, Louisville will reach 11 wins for the first time since 2006 and will move to 2-0 all-time in BCS bowls.

3. Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and Florida running back Mike Gillislee figure to be focal points in a matchup that features a stifling Gator defense on one side and its Cardinal counterpart that struggled against the run. Bridgewater led the Big East with a 161.6 passer rating that ranked seventh in the nation, tossing for 3,452 yards and 25 touchdowns. Florida ranked fifth in the nation in total defense and limited opponents to an average of just over 186 yards per game through the air. Gillislee averaged 92 yards on the ground and had 10 touchdowns for Florida, which ranked third in the SEC in rushing offense, while only Temple (199.4 yards per game) allowed a higher rushing average than Louisville (151.1) among Big East schools.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida opened at -15 and was bet up to -15.5 before coming down as low as -13.5. The total has stayed steady at 45.5.

CONSENSUS: 63 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Florida while 63 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games.
* Gators are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last five bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Gators last seven bowl games.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (10-2, 5-2 Big East, 5-7 ATS): The Cardinals were 10-game winners for the fifth time in school history and on each of the previous four occasions, they have gone on to win their bowl game. They stand a chance against the Gators, if for no other reason than the fact that Florida had legitimate scares against the likes of Bowling Green, Missouri and Louisiana-Lafayette this season. The Cardinals led the Big East, averaging 31 points per game but obviously face a stiff test against the Gators' defense. Running back Jeremy Wright, who took over when Senorise Perry was lost for the season, managed only 89 yards in Louisville's final three games. The Cardinals will hope for a turnaround, and establishing a semblance of a run game would go along way toward opening things up for Bridgewater under center.

ABOUT FLORIDA (11-1, 7-1 SEC, 7-5 ATS): The Gators played six games this season decided by one score and prevailed in all but one. In their win over Florida State, the defense was the difference, forcing a season-high five turnovers in a 37-26 final. Florida led the SEC in turnover margin, tied with Mississippi State at plus-17, ranking fifth in the nation. If the Gators force trouble for Louisville, the odds are decidedly in their favor. Florida, which committed only 12 turnovers this season, was plus-20 in 11 wins and minus-3 in a 17-9 loss to Georgia. In a tight game, the Gators have a big weapon in kicker Caleb Sturgis, whose 23 field goals ranked fourth among FBS kickers.

[Tnbreakers]

Love your plays and your time consuming write-ups! Always Bol!! You give a lot of time and expertise! Hope the play tomorrow is on the Gators!!! Keep up the good work Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, January 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISVILLE (10 - 2) vs. FLORIDA (11 - 1) - 1/2/2013, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

----------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, January 2

8:30 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. FLORIDA
Louisville is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Louisville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games

------------------------------------------------------------

Sugar Bowl: Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators – Open: -15.5, Move: -13

Some books opened Florida as a monster favorite but drew early UL money and have since come down to -13. Kessler opened at -13 and has taken nothing but Gators bets but could see the line shrink even more.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t go higher,” he says. “I think the wise guys will take back on Louisville.”

------------------------------------------------------------

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 259-260: Louisville vs. Florida (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 83.126; Florida 104.748
Dunkel Line: Florida by 21 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Florida by 13; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-13); Under

------------------------------------------------------------

Louisville - Led the nation in red-zone efficiency offense (scored on 48 of 50 drives).
Florida - Worst passing offense of all bowl teams that don't run a triple-option style offense (114th in the nation, 143.9 yards per game).

------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Louisville vs. Florida, 8:30 ET ESPN
Louisville: 8-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3
Florida: 22-10 Over off a double digit road win

[StarDust Bum]

Florida favored big over Louisville in Sugar Bowl

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (10-2)
vs. FLORIDA GATORS (11-1)

Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida -14, Total: 45.5

Florida looks to end the season with a dozen wins when it takes on heavy underdog Louisville in the Sugar Bowl on Wednesday night.

Louisville is 4-7 in bowls since 1998 and is only 3-6 ATS in the past nine contests this year, dropping two of the past three games outright. Florida is 6-1 in its past seven bowls, including two BCS Championships, but is just 1-4 ATS in its past five games in 2012. The Cardinals are led by QB Teddy Bridgewater, who ranks eighth in the nation in passing efficiency (8.9 YPA, 25 TD, 7 INT). However, the Gators allow a mere 12.9 PPG (3rd in FBS) and 283 total YPG (5th in nation). They also know how to run the football, gashing a strong Florida State defense for 244 yards on 47 carries (5.2 YPC) in the regular season finale.

Will the Gators coast to a victory in Wednesday's Sugar Bowl? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the ******* Edge College Bowl Guide for all the ******* Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Bridgewater hopes to be much sharper than he was in his last postseason game in the 2011 Meineke Car Care Bowl when he completed just 24-of-43 passes (55.8%) for 274 yards, 2 TD and 3 INT in 31-24 loss to NC State. He did come up big in the regular-season finale though, playing through a broken wrist and sore ankle and completing 20-of-28 passes (71.4%) for 263 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in a 20-17 win at Rutgers to clinch the BCS bid as a Big East co-champion. It was his sixth straight game with at least 2 TD passes, throwing for a total of 16 TD and 4 INT during this stretch. Sophomore WR DeVante Parker has caught a touchdown pass in five straight games, as all nine of his scores on the year have occurred in the past eight games. He is certainly a big-play receiver with 18.7 yards per reception. With Senorise Perry (705 rush yds, 11 TD) suffering a season-ending knee injury, the Cardinals have relied on Jeremy Wright (740 rush yds, 9 TD) to carry the load. But Wright has been awful in the past three games, gaining 89 yards on 48 carries (1.9 YPC). One thing Louisville does very well is protecting the football, as the Cardinals have committed just 12 turnovers in 12 games, sporting a +9 TO margin. The Louisville defense is better than most, allowing just 345 total YPG (25th in FBS) and 23.8 PPG (36th in nation). However, the return game is brutal, as the Cardinals rank 5th-worst in the nation in kick returns (17.8 average) and 15th-worst in punt returns (4.2 average).

Gators QB Jeff Driskel has been slowed by an ankle injury, but he is expected to start on Wednesday. Driskel hasn't reached 200 passing yards in a game since September, but he has thrown a mere three interceptions in 216 pass attempts this season. Another player slowed by injury for this game is senior RB Mike Gillislee (1,104 rush yds, 10 TD), who hurt his ribs during his 140-yard, 2-TD outburst at Florida State on Nov. 24. He will start on Wednesday in hopes that he can repeat his 2010 Sugar Bowl success (five carries, 78 yards) in his final collegiate game. TE Jordan Reed leads Florida in both receptions (44) and receiving yards (552), but he hasn’t topped 85 yards this season and has scored touchdowns in just two different games. The Gators defense has been impressive in all facets, ranking 6th in FBS in defending the run (97 YPG) and 13th in pass defense (186 YPG). No FBS school is more efficient in defending the pass than Florida, which has 19 interceptions while allowing just five passing touchdowns on the season. These picks have helped the defense pile up 29 takeaways and produce a +17 turnover margin for the season.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, January 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 8:30 PM ET Florida -14 500

Florida - Under 45.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, January 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS ST (11 - 1) vs. OREGON (11 - 1) - 1/3/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

----------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, January 3

8:30 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. OREGON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State's last 5 games
Kansas State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 5 games
Oregon is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games

-----------------------------------------------------------

THURSDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 261-262: Oregon vs. Kansas State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 120.231; Kansas State 103.251
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 17; 71
Vegas Line: Oregon by 9; 75 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-9); Under

-----------------------------------------------------------

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Thursday, January 3

Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix)
73-year old Snyder covered 11 of last 13 games as underdog; K-State has eight senior starters on defense, none on offensive line. Biggest question in this game is whether talk about Chip Kelly going to NFL will distract Oregon, which is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 42-45-56 points in wins, 17-19 in losses (Kelly 1-2 in bowls). Oregon scored 42+ points in all its wins, 14 in OT loss to Stanford; they're 6-1 vs spread last seven games as a favorite. K-State's only loss was as a 12-point favorite at Baylor (52-24); they won SU both times they were underdog this year, but lost last four bowls, allowing 33.8 ppg. Wildcats lost 35-28 to Ohio State in this game in '03. K-State's Klein is senior QB who was banged up late in year but had time to recover; Ducks' QB Mariota is redshirt freshman. Underdogs covered five of last six Fiesta Bowls, where domed stadium guarantees fast track-- 68-79 points were scored here last two years. Under is 17-13 in bowls, faves are 13-16 against spread.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fiesta Bowl: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats (+8, 75.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, January 3, 2013
WHERE: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, Arizona

FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Oregon and Kansas State could have been meeting in the BCS title game if not for both teams losing on Nov. 17. Instead, they form perhaps the top non-championship game pairing of the bowl season. The No. 3 Ducks had their title hopes derailed by Stanford while the No. 6 Wildcats were routed by Baylor.

2. Offensive theatrics should be plentiful with both teams having powerful attacks. Oregon ranks second in scoring at 50.8 points and fourth in total offense at 550.1 yards while featuring star runner Kenjon Barner (1,624 rushing yards). Kansas State averages 40.7 points and 411.2 yards with quarterback Collin Klein – third in Heisman Trophy balloting – leading the way.

3. Big plays on defense often tip the scales during the bowl season and both teams are among the best in the nation in takeaways. Oregon leads the nation with 39 and Kansas State has forced 31 turnovers. The Ducks have returned four interceptions for touchdown. The Wildcats have only committed 10 miscues in 12 games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Oregon opened at -8 and was bet up as high as -9.5 but money on KSU dropped the spread back to -8. The total moved from 77 to 75.5.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Oregon while 68 percent are on the over.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-2 in Ducks' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (11-1, 8-1 Big 12, 7-5 ATS): The Wildcats have lost four consecutive bowl games dating back to the 2002 Holiday Bowl during coach Bill Snyder’s first stint at the school. Klein is a multipurpose threat with 2,490 yards and 15 passing touchdowns to go with 890 yards and 22 scores on the ground. Junior John Hubert has rushed for 15 touchdowns to go with a team-leading 892 rushing yards, while senior wideout Chris Harper has a team-best 50 receptions for 786 yards. Harper began his career as a quarterback at Oregon before transferring. Kansas State allows only 99.3 rushing yards per game and boasts big-time talent in senior middle linebacker Arthur Brown – the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year – junior free safety Ty Zimmerman (five interceptions) and senior defensive end Meshak Williams (8.5 sacks). Senior cornerback Allen Chapman and senior cornerback Nigel Malone also have five interceptions apiece.

ABOUT OREGON (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12, 9-2-1 ATS): The Ducks could be playing their final game under coach Chip Kelly as rumors swirl that he is headed to the NFL. Redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrived under Kelly’s progressive system, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 2,511 yards and 30 touchdowns. Sophomore running back De’Anthony Thomas had 16 total touchdowns, including 11 on the ground while complementing Barner. Senior defensive end Dion Jordan is the leader of the defense with 10.5 tackles for losses. Junior defensive end Taylor Hart has a team-best eight sacks while sophomore cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu has blossomed as a huge playmaker. Ekpre-Olomu is tied for the team lead with sophomore middle linebacker Kiko Alonso for most interceptions (four) and also has forced six fumbles.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Sharps vs. Public in Fiesta Bowl betting

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-8, 75.5)

Two of the most explosive offensive programs in the country meet in the Fiesta Bowl, with oddsmakers opening the Oregon Ducks as 8-point favorites for this Jan. 3 BCS bowl game.

Early money came in on the Ducks, moving the spread as high as -9.5 at some online markets. However, sharp money pounced on the discount KSU line and brought the spread back to its original post. According to oddsmakers at BetDSI.com, the Fiesta Bowl is a battle between public and wise guy money.

“There is a public-versus-sharp betting contrast here with sharp action backing K-State at the +9 spread and the public all over Oregon at any value,” BetDSI.com told Covers. “The current bet count is 2-to-1 in favor of Oregon, but the money has decent balance since the spread settled in around Oregon -8.”

The total for Thursday’s game is one of the largest numbers this bowl season. The over/under opened as high as 77 but has since dropped to as low as 75 online. Las Vegas books are dealing between 76 and 75.5 points.

Four bowls have closed with totals of 70 or more points this postseason, splitting the over/under at 2-2. Oregon and Kansas State posted twin 7-4 over/under records this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, January 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oregon - 8:30 PM ET Kansas State +8 500 POD

Kansas State - Over 74 500 POD

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, January 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS A&M (10 - 2) vs. OKLAHOMA (10 - 2) - 1/4/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, January 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (6 - 6) vs. OLE MISS (6 - 6) - 1/5/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS ST (9 - 3) vs. KENT ST (12 - 1) - 1/6/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
KENT ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
KENT ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
KENT ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KENT ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
KENT ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
ARKANSAS ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, January 4

8:00 PM
TEXAS A&M vs. OKLAHOMA
Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 5 games


Sunday, January 5

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MISSISSIPPI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Mississippi is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi's last 6 games


Monday, January 6

9:00 PM
ARKANSAS STATE vs. KENT STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 6 games
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kent State's last 7 games
Kent State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 263-264: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 110.565; Oklahoma 107.678
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 3; 75
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 4 1/2; 71 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+4 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 265-266: Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 86.586; Mississippi 99.556
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 13; 63
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-3 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 267-268: Kent State vs. Arkansas State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 88.321; Arkansas State 93.083
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 5; 58
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-3 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Cotton Bowl

Texas A&M – Ranked first in the SEC in passing, rushing, total offense and scoring – yet was an under team with a 4-6 over/under record.
Oklahoma – First time the Sooners have been underdogs to Texas A&M since 1999, breaking a string of 12 straight meetings where Oklahoma was favored (OU won that game 51-6 as 3.5-pt dogs).

Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh - Tied for first in the nation in fewest turnovers lost this year (8).
Mississippi – The most profitable team in the SEC this season at 9-3 ATS.

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Kent State - Tied for tops in the nation in turnovers gained with 38.
Arkansas State – Hasn’t been held to fewer than 34 points during its current seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS).