The Bum's Novembers College Football Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 24

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Notre Dame at USC: What bettors need to know
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Notre Dame at USC (5, 45.5)

It all comes down to Saturday for No. 1 Notre Dame. Things broke right for the Fighting Irish last weekend, when No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Kansas State both fell, allowing Notre Dame to slip right into the top spot in the BCS standings. The only thing standing in the way now is rival Southern California. The Fighting Irish will visit the Trojans with a National Championship shot on the line Saturday night. Notre Dame enjoyed an easy victory over Wake Forest on Senior Day last week as the rest of the top three was falling apart around the country. USC began the season thinking this game would be their final stop before a shot at the BCS title, but things have not quite gone according to plan. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games to fall out of BCS consideration but can head into the bowl season with smiles on their faces by keeping the rival Irish out of the title game. They will have to accomplish that with a first-time starter at quarterback, however, as redshirt freshman Max Wittek is taking the place of injured starter Matt Barkley.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Notre Dame -5, 45.5 O/U.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with clear skies. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (11-0): The Irish have been tested plenty of times in their first 11 games and have won by a touchdown or less five times thanks to a defense that has allowed an FBS-low 10.1 points. That unit could send linebacker Manti Te’o to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York and even win him the award with a big performance Saturday. Notre Dame has allowed only eight touchdowns this season - tops in the country. But the most impressive thing about the Irish over the past few games has been the performance of quarterback Everett Golson. The redshirt freshman has thrown for seven touchdowns and two picks in the last three games and exploded for a season-high 346 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-0 victory over Wake Forest last Saturday.

ABOUT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (7-4): The Trojans have the offensive firepower to attack Notre Dame’s relative weaknesses in the defensive backfield. Wide receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods are arguably the top tandem in the nation and will make the transition to starting easier for Wittek. Barkley went down in the second half of last week’s 38-28 loss to rival UCLA with a shoulder injury and Wittek completed all three of his attempts for 40 yards. The precocious freshman was confident during an ESPN radio interview this week, saying “I’m gonna go out there, I’m gonna play within myself, within the system, and we’re gonna win this ballgame.” Wittek might have trouble running up the score against Te’o and company and could use some help from his own defense, which has been shredded for 46.3 points in the last three losses.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 foes.
* Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Trojans’ last seven home games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Notre Dame’s last nine road games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Notre Dame is ranked No. 1 for the first time since 1993. The Irish have lost at USC as the No. 1 team twice before - in 1938 and 1965.

2. USC has taken nine of the last 10 meetings, with the lone setback coming in 2010, when Barkley missed the game because of injury.

3. Lee was named one of three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award honoring the nation’s top receiver

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Saturday, November 24, 2012

First Post

Michigan at Ohio State, 12:00 ET
Michigan: 3-12 ATS off BB games scoring 37+ points
Ohio State: 33-17 ATS at home off a road win

(TC) Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, 3:30 ET
Vanderbilt: 6-18 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
Wake Forest: 9-2 ATS off a SU loss

Connecticut at Louisville, 12:00 ET
Connecticut: 19-6 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Louisville: 2-10 ATS at home with a total of 45.5 to 49 points

Georgia Tech at Georgia, 12:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 6-0 Over off a home game
Georgia: 20-8 ATS vs. ACC opponents

(TC) Maryland at North Carolina, 3:00 ET
Maryland: 22-9 ATS off a conference loss by 21+ points
North Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a conference win

Virginia at Virginia Tech, 12:00 ET
Virginia: 1-8 ATS off an ATS loss
Virginia Tech: 39-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

(TC) Michigan State at Minnesota, 3:30 ET
Michigan State: 1-8 ATS as a favorite
Minnesota: 8-1 Under after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

(TC) Miami FL at Duke, 12:30 ET
Miami FL: 7-0 ATS vs. conference opponents
Duke: 7-1 Over as an underdog

Illinois at Northwestern, 12:00 ET
Illinois: 13-28 ATS off BB games scoring 17 points or less
Northwestern: 6-0 ATS in home games

(TC) Boston College at NC State, 3:00 ET
Boston College: 6-0 Under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
NC State: 7-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

(TC)Kentucky at Tennessee, 12:20 ET
Kentucky: 1-7 ATS as an underdog
Tennessee: 12-3 ATS off 3+ ATS losses

(TC) Wisconsin at Penn State, 3:30 ET
Wisconsin: 12-4 Over vs. conference opponents
Penn State: 5-1 ATS as a favorite

Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 12:00 ET
Rutgers: 11-3 ATS off an ATS win
Pittsburgh: 11-24 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards

Indiana at Purdue, 12:00 ET
Indiana: 9-22 ATS after gaining 475+ total yards
Purdue: 9-2 Over in home games

Texas State at Texas San Antonio, 2:00 ET
Texas State: 6-1 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Texas SA: 3-0 ATS after allowing 325+ passing yards

Idaho at Utah State, 3:00 ET
Idaho: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents
Utah State: 10-0-1 ATS in all games this season

San Diego State at Wyoming, 3:30 ET
San Diego State: 13-26 ATS off BB wins
Wyoming: 28-13 ATS after gaining 325+ passing yards

(TC) Texas Tech at Baylor, 2:30 ET
Texas Tech: 28-13 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Baylor: 7-0 Over off a win by 21+ points

Auburn at Alabama, 3:30 ET
Auburn: 0-7 ATS off an ATS win
Alabama: 7-0 ATS at home with a total of 42.5 to 49 points


(TC) = Time Change

[StarDust Bum]

College football betting weather watch: Week 13

Michigan at Ohio State (-4, 53.5)

Site: Ohio Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with a slight chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the WNW at 11 mph.

Virginia at Virginia Tech (-10, 49)

Site: Lane Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and clear skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 15 mph.

Rutgers at Pittsburgh (-1.5, 43.5)

Site: Heinz Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with a slight chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the west at 14 mph.

Oregon at Oregon State (9.5, 66)

Site: Reser Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 100 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 3 mph.

Wisconsin at Penn State (-2, 45.5)

Site: Beaver Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures around the freezing mark and a 40 percent chance of a rain/snow mix. Winds will blow out of the WNW at 16 mph.

San Diego State at Wyoming (7, 55.5)

Site: Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with sunny skies. But winds will gust out of the WSW at 20 mph.

UNLV at Hawaii (3, 54)

Site: Aloha Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the ENE at 7 mph.

[Kaptain]

GET EM BUM....bust some arse today

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, November 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Georgia Tech - 12:00 PM ET Georgia Tech +14 500
Georgia - Over 64 500

Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Northwestern -19 500
Northwestern -

Connecticut - 12:00 PM ET Connecticut +10.5 500
Louisville -

Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Michigan +4 500
Ohio State -

Rutgers - 12:00 PM ET Rutgers +1 500
Pittsburgh -

Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Virginia +10 500
Virginia Tech -

Alabama-Birmingham - 12:00 PM ET Central Florida -21 500
Central Florida -

Indiana - 12:00 PM ET Indiana +5.5 500
Purdue -

Tulsa - 12:00 PM ET Tulsa -5.5 500
Southern Methodist - Under 51 500

Kentucky - 12:21 PM ET Kentucky +13.5 500
Tennessee -

Miami - 12:30 PM ET Duke +6 500
Duke -

North Texas - 1:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -11 500
Western Kentucky - Under 51 500

Texas State - 2:00 PM ET Texas State -1.5 500
Texas-San Antonio -

Baylor - 2:30 PM ET Texas Tech +3.5 500
Texas Tech -

Boston College - 3:00 PM ET Boston College +14 500
North Carolina State -

Maryland - 3:00 PM ET Maryland +24.5 500
North Carolina -

Oregon - 3:00 PM ET Oregon State +9.5 500
Oregon State -

Idaho - 3:00 PM ET Utah State -37 500
Utah State -

Florida - 3:30 PM ET Florida State -7 500
Florida State -

Michigan State - 3:30 PM ET Minnesota +8.5 500
Minnesota -

Vanderbilt - 3:30 PM ET Vanderbilt -10.5 500
Wake Forest -

Oklahoma State - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma State +6.5 500
Oklahoma -

Wisconsin - 3:30 PM ET Penn State -2 500
Penn State -

Tulane - 3:30 PM ET Tulane +12 500
Houston -

Air Force - 3:30 PM ET Fresno State -16 500
Fresno State -

Auburn - 3:30 PM ET Alabama -33.5 500
Alabama -

Troy - 3:30 PM ET Troy +3 500
Middle Tennessee -

San Diego State - 3:30 PM ET San Diego State -7.5 500
Wyoming -

Brigham Young - 3:30 PM ET Brigham Young -27.5 500
New Mexico State -

Southern Mississippi - 4:30 PM ET Memphis -3 500
Memphis -

South Alabama - 5:00 PM ET South Alabama +18 500
UL Lafayette -

UL Monroe - 6:00 PM ET UL Monroe -4 500
Florida International -

Stanford - 6:30 PM ET UCLA +3 500
UCLA -

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL EVENING BEST BETS:


Stanford - 6:30 PM ET UCLA +3 500
UCLA - Under 51 500

New Mexico - 7:00 PM ET New Mexico +4 500
Colorado State - Under 54.5 500

Mississippi State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi State +1 500
Mississippi -

South Carolina - 7:00 PM ET South Carolina +4 500
Clemson -

Missouri - 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -22.5 500
Texas A&M -

Rice - 7:00 PM ET Rice +1 500
Texas El Paso -

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Southern California +4 500
Southern California - Under 47 500

Louisiana Tech - 10:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech +3.5 500
San Jose State - Under 75.5 500

UNLV - 11:00 PM ET Hawaii +2.5 500
Hawaii - Over 54 500

[StarDust Bum]

Rutgers Needs Victory Vs. Louisville Thursday To Win Big East

Louisville Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/29/2012 at 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Rutgers -2½, O/U 43½
Television: ESPN

Louisville Cardinals: That 9-0 start for the Cards (9-2 straight-up, 4-6-1 against the spread) has become a distant memory following consecutive losses, the most recent a 23-20 triple overtime setback vs. a UConn Huskies team that was getting 10 points from the oddsmakers. Despite the slide, Louisville could keep its hopes for a BCS game alive with a win on Thursday. The Cardinals will definitely need to get off to a better start offensively in this game than they did last week when failing to get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter. It didn't help that Teddy Bridgewater suffered a broken left wrist in the first half, though the sophomore quarterback returned to lead the two scoring drives in regulation and is probable for Thursday's tilt (click to check updated college football injury report). Louisville has won and covered its last two clashes with Rutgers but is just 1-3 ATS in road contests this season.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Coach Kyle Flood and the Knights (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) suffered their first Big East defeat last week at Pitt in convincing fashion, 27-6, to miss a chance to sew up the conference title. The Panthers rode a 21-0 advantage into halftime and an impotent Rutgers attack could manage just over 200 yards of total offense on the afternoon. The defense continues to carry the load for the Scarlet Knights, ranking 14th in fewest yards allowed (317.4 per game) and fourth in scoring (13.7 points per game). Rutgers is dealing with a quarterback who is less than 100 percent as well after Gary Nova injured his neck in the loss to Pittsburgh, but he is expected to play on Thursday. Linebacker Khaseem Greene (head) is also listed as probable. The last three Scarlett Knights games have failed to reach the total, but the "over" has cashed in the last three home meetings with Louisville.

[StarDust Bum]

Louisville at Rutgers

November 28, 2012

While Thursday's game will not be called the Big East Championship game, it will be just that for all intensive purposes. Rutgers wins the title outright with a win, if Louisville wins there will be a shared title but the Cardinals would win the tiebreaker and head to the Orange Bowl. Both teams look to bounce back from losses last week in this Thursday night primetime match-up, take a look at this game and the history between these teams.

Matchup: Louisville Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Venue: High Point Solutions Stadium, New Brunswick, New Jersey (FieldTurf)
Date: Thursday, November 29, 2012
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN2
Line: Rutgers -3, Over/Under 43½
Last Meeting: 2011, Louisville (-1) 16-14 at Louisville

While the Big East champion would likely not be player in the BCS picture even with an undefeated record with both Louisville and Rutgers losing last week, neither team is currently in the top 25 of the BCS rankings. Both teams crack the bottom of the top 25 in the Coaches' Poll with Louisville sitting at #23 and Rutgers at #25, although neither makes the AP poll. The champion will likely take a low-20s or high teens ranking into the Orange Bowl however and it will actually be the first Big East champion with only two total losses since the 2009 Cincinnati team that went 12-0 in the regular season. A three-loss West Virginia team won the Orange Bowl last season and a four-loss Connecticut team represented the conference in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago. The opponent will be the winner of the Florida State vs. Georgia Tech matchup in the ACC Championship on Saturday.

Regardless of the outcome it should be viewed as successful season for both programs. Louisville Head Coach Charlie Strong is in his third year with the program and after encouraging but underwhelming back-to-back 7-6 seasons the Cardinals are 9-2 and will have the most wins since the 2006 season under Bobby Petrino. A solid season comes at an important time for the program as the Big East goes through major changes. Louisville was a candidate to move to the Big XII last season but West Virginia claimed that spot and this program has been mentioned as a potential ACC candidate with Maryland's departure.

Not much was expected from Rutgers this season as long-time head coach Greg Schiano took the Tampa Bay Buccaneers job after 11 seasons at Rutgers. First year head coach Kyle Flood has been with the program since 2007 and hiring from within has proven to be a good strategy with already the same number of wins as last season's solid 9-4 team. While the upcoming move to the Big Ten has raised a lot questions around the country, it is certainly is something that could energize the Scarlet Knights program and claiming an outright Big East title on the way out would certainly be a positive. Rutgers had not played in a bowl game since 1978 until Schiano took the team to the postseason in 2005 and this team will head to a bowl game now for the seventh time in eight years.

Things could have been even better for both squads however as Rutgers opened the year 7-0, including once meaningful wins at South Florida and at Arkansas in non-conference play. Louisville lasted to 9-0 with wins over Kentucky and North Carolina before dropping the last two games in conference play.

Statistically Louisville has been the far superior offensive team, posting 431 yards per game on 6.2 yards per play, albeit through a very soft schedule. This has been the most productive Louisville team in terms of yardage and scoring since the 2007 season, the first year under Steve Kragthorpe, though that was a very difficult year in which the team went 6-6 despite being a top 10 team to start the season. The Louisville defense has average numbers, allowing 345 yards per game and having some vulnerability against the run, surrendering nearly 160 rushing yards per game. Louisville has been out-rushed in five straight games and all but one conference game on the season.

Rutgers has been led by a stingy defense, surrendering only 317 yards per game on 4.8 yards per play. The Scarlet Knights are a very tough team to run against with opponents posting just 3.1 yards per carry but in the last month Rutgers has surrendered big rushing totals, allowing an average of 183 yards per game the last four contests, though those numbers are a little skewed having faced a couple of rush-heavy teams. Rutgers has allowed less than 14 points per game this season on average and only three opponents have topped 15 points against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has been limited on offense, scoring less than 23 points per game and averaging just 5.4 yards per play. The Knights also have one of the better turnover margins in the nation at +11 on the year.

Last week Louisville got a big scare as sophomore quarterback Teddy Bridgewater broke his left wrist. It is his non-throwing arm and he continued to play in the second half of the game. Bridgewater was a fringe Heisman candidate at one point in the season and he has great numbers, passing for nearly 3,200 yards and posting 23 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions. He has completed almost 69 percent of his passes but in the two losses in the last two games Louisville's offensive line has struggled to provide adequate time for him. Louisville has two 700 yard rushers with Jeremy Wright and Corvin Lamb and this team has been very balanced, averaging 35 passing attempts per game and 35 rushing attempts per game.

Rutgers will blitz often on defense and the Knights are led by senior linebacker Khaseem Greene who leads the team in tackles. He is a former free safety that was the Big East co-Defensive Player of the Year last season. On offense Rutgers sophomore quarterback Gary Nova has 20 touchdown passes but also 13 interceptions. He has completed less than 60 percent of his passes and after throwing just two interceptions in the first six games has thrown 11 in the last five games, including at least one in every game. His six interception game in the loss to Kent State was certainly ugly but Nova spreads the ball around well and has the look of a great competitor. Junior running back Jawan Jamison has already surpassed 1,000 yards rushing this season and he is also a threat out of the backfield as a receiver. Rutgers also presents sophomore wide receiver Brandon Coleman who is a match-up nightmare at six-foot-six.

Both teams will have a hard time establishing a run in this game as Louisville will need to key in on the ground game and that is the strength of the Rutgers defense. The Big East championship should likely hinge on the arms of the two young quarterbacks and who can make the big plays and the fewest mistakes. That was the case last season as Nova had three interceptions compared to just one for Bridgewater as these two met as freshmen. While neither team is going to enter the national conversation and the winner will be a sizable underdog in an unappealing Orange Bowl, this Thursday night game could be very competitive and entertaining.

Line Movement: Rutgers opened as a -2½-point favorite but the line has moved to -3. The total opened at 43½.

Last Meeting: Rutgers was 5-1 and 2-0 in the Big East last season when they headed to Louisville in late October last season. The Cardinals had started the season 2-4 including ugly losses to Florida International and Marshall. The Cardinals were having great trouble on offense playing with a very young team but they were able to pull away in the 3rd quarter to a 16-7 lead. Rutgers closed that gap to 16-14 early in the 4th but Louisville's defense held firm, forcing a punt and getting an interception to put the game away. It was an even statistical game with Louisville having a 309-298 yardage edge but the Cardinals also won the turnover battle.

Series History: While last season's meeting was a very tight game with Louisville winning 16-14 the prior three meetings were all blowouts decided by 20 or more points. Rutgers lost 40-13 in 2010 in the last home meeting playing as a 3-point underdog. There is not a rich history between these teams but the most memorable meeting came in 2006 when both teams were 8-0 and Rutgers won 28-25 at home over then #3 ranked Louisville. That win propelled the Knights to a #7 national ranking but they lost the following week. Rutgers has a slight 5-4 series edge in the straight up history back to 1984 and the against the spread history is knotted at 4-4-1 in that time.

Louisville Historical Trends: The Cardinals are 23-14 SU since Coach Strong took over and 19-18 ATS. Louisville is 12-0 SU when scoring at least 30 points but that will be a tough mark to hit in this match-up. Louisville was a strong winning ATS team the last two years but this season the Cardinals are 4-7 ATS but this will be the first time all season that they have been an underdog, opening the year as one of the Big East favorites and playing a very light schedule. Louisville has covered in seven of the last eight games as an underdog with all of those instances coming last season. The Cardinals are also on a strong 12-4 ATS run in road games going back to late in the 2009 season, though they are 1-3 ATS in road games this season.

Rutgers Historical Trends: Since Greg Schiano took over Rutgers has been an ATS powerhouse with a solid 76-59-3 record. The Knights are 7-4 ATS this season including 3-2 in five home games. Rutgers is 10-2 S/U at home since the start of last season, going 8-4 ATS but since the breakthrough 2006 season the Knights are only 17-19 ATS at home. Rutgers is also just 15-17-1 ATS as a favorite since 2008. Since 2001 Rutgers is just 5-8 ATS as a small favorite of four or fewer, through they have won outright in six of those last eight instances.

[StarDust Bum]

Rutgers seeks Big East crown Thursday vs. Louisville

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (9-2)
at RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (9-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Rutgers -3, Total: 43.5

One day after being accepted to join the ACC in 2014, Louisville will try to wrap up a share of the Big East title when it visits Rutgers on Thursday night.

If the Knights win (5-1 in conference), they wrap up the Big East, but a Cardinals victory (plus a Cincinnati win over Connecticut) would make a four-way tie of 5-2 teams for the conference crown. Louisville holds a slight 4-3 (SU and ATS) advantage over Rutgers in Big East play all-time, winning two straight meetings, including a 40-13 rout in its last trip to New Jersey in 2010. Both starting quarterbacks -- Teddy Bridgewater (wrist/ankle) and Gary Nova (neck) -- were injured in bad losses last week when the Cardinals fell at home to 10-point underdog Connecticut and the Knights got smoked 27-6 at Pittsburgh.

Can Rutgers win the Big East outright on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Bridgewater ranks 6th in the nation in passing efficiency, throwing for 3,189 yards, 23 TD and 6 INT. He has at least two touchdown passes in each of the past five games. Although he led his team to a 16-14 win over Rutgers last year, Bridgewater was just 10-of-18 for 122 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. RB Jeremy Wright had a nice day though, rushing for 108 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. With top RB Senorise Perry (knee) out for the season, Wright will get a much bigger workload on Thursday. Wright has a team-high 723 rushing yards this year, but has been held to just 72 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) in the past two games. However, he's been a valuable receiver out of the backfield with 15 catches over this same two-game span. Although Louisville has given up 24.5 PPG (44th in nation), it hasn't allowed too many yards (345 YPG, 26th in FBS). Such was the case last week when UConn scored 23 points, but managed just 241 total yards in a triple-overtime game. Louisville has a +7 turnover margin for the season, thanks to just 11 giveaways in 11 games.

Rutgers also has an injury concern with its starting QB Gary Nova (neck), but he is expected to start on Thursday. Nova has completed 60% of his passes this season, but has thrown 10 interceptions (and just 5 TD) in the past four games. Nova also threw three picks in last year's loss to Louisville, ruining an otherwise serviceable day (207 passing yards, 1 TD). Although Nova's 18-of-37 for 157 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT performance in last week's loss to Pittsburgh wasn't great, it was the Knights' lack of a ground game that really hurt. Jawan Jamison, Savon Huggins and Paul James combined for just 54 yards on 22 carries (2.5 YPC). Jamison (1,004 rush yards) began the season with five straight games of 110+ rushing yards, but has failed to reach the century mark in any of his past four contests. Huggins was huge at Cincinnati two weeks ago (41 carries for 179 yards), but hasn't topped 50 yards in any other game this season. With a lackluster offense, Rutgers continues to beat opponents with a stout defense that allows 13.7 PPG (4th in nation) and 317 total YPG (14th in FBS). The Knights have also been a great field-position team with a +11 turnover margin and the 9th-best kick return game in the nation (26.1 yards per return).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, November 29

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LOUISVILLE (9 - 2) at RUTGERS (9 - 2) - 11/29/2012, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Louisville at Rutgers, 7:30 ET ESPN
Louisville: 6-0 ATS as a road underdog
Rutgers: 9-1 Under with a line of +3 to -3

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NCAAF

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 29

NOVEMBER 29, 7:30 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. RUTGERS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisville's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 6 games when playing Rutgers
Rutgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Rutgers's last 7 games

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 14

Louisville at Rutgers
The Cardinals look to bounce back from their 23-20 loss to Connecticut and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU defeat. Louisville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+3). Here are all of this week's games.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 303-304: Louisville at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 91.678; Rutgers 88.720
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+3); Over

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday's game
Louisville QB Bridgewater played second half last week with broken left (non-throwing) wrist, is expected to play here, in what amounts to play-in game for trip to Orange Bowl. Cardinals lost last two games after 9-0 start, allowing 45-23 points; they've won three games while giving up 30+ points- they're 3-1 on road, losing at Syracuse on last trip. Game is sold out, first Rutgers sellout in three years. Scarlet Knights are 4-1 here, losing 35-23 to #17 Kent State, allowing total of 25 points in three home wins vs I-A teams. Five of last seven Rutgers games stayed under total. Three of last four Louisville games went over. Home side won/covered five of last seven series games.

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NCAAF

Thursday, November 29

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Louisville at Rutgers: What bettors need to know
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Louisville Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-3, 43.5)

The Big East has grown accustomed to strange finishes in recent years, but No. 18 Rutgers hopes to avoid any suspense for the second time in as many seasons when they host No. 20 Louisville on Thursday.

In addition to securing the school’s first BCS berth, the Scarlet Knights will get a chance to atone for last season when they missed out on an opportunity to forge a four-way atop the conference standings in the final week of the regular season. While a similar scenario could take place again this season, Thursday’s game will likely determine whether Rutgers or Louisville with represent the conference in a BCS bowl game.

Last Saturday, the Scarlet Knights had a chance to claim their first outright conference title, but appeared listless in a 27-6 loss to Pittsburgh. However, thanks to a triple-overtime loss by Louisville to Connecticut on the same day, Rutgers clinched at least a share of the Big East crown.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Rutgers has been bet up to a field-goal favorite after opening at -2.5. The total opened at 43.5 and has remained steady.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (9-2, 4-2 Big East, 4-7 ATS): The Cardinals enter on a two-game losing streak and injuries to key players are beginning to pile up. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater broke his left wrist and sprained his right ankle against Connecticut, one game after the team lost leading rusher Senorise Perry for the season to a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Coach Charlie Strong expects Bridgewater to play through his injuries Thursday, but his ability to effectively lead the conference’s top scoring offense will be in question. Bridgewater is unable to handle snaps under center or play-action calls but is expected to manage the offense from the shotgun and pistol formations.

ABOUT RUTGERS (9-2, 5-1 Big East, 7-4 ATS): Despite rushing for only 14 yards on nine carries against Pittsburgh, Jawan Jamison became the seventh player in school history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. The Scarlet Knights have forced a turnover in 14 consecutive games – totaling 32 over that stretch – and have forced at least one turnover in 51 of their previous 55 games. Rutgers ranks among the top 25 nationally in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring (fourth), total (14th) and rushing (11th).

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rutgers has allowed only 71 points in conference play.

2. Louisville is 3-18 all-time on the road against ranked opponents.

3. A win would give the Scarlet Knights only their third 10-win season in the program’s 143-year history.


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NCAAF

Thursday, November 29

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Louisville, Rutgers both facing challenges at QB
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A struggling Rutgers passing game has seen the Scarlet Knights score just 16 points over its past two games heading into Thursday night’s pseudo Big East Championship contest against Louisville, where Rutgers is favored by a field goal.

Fortunately for the Scarlet Knights, they won one of those games though it makes things a little scary heading up against a Louisville pass defense that ranks 14th in the country.

Gary Nova went just 11 for 19 for 186 yards two games ago in a 10-3 win over Cincy as a 6.5-point road dog and then went 18 of 37 for 157 yards in a 27-6 thumping at the hands of Pitt last weekend.

The problem could be that opposing defenses have Rutgers’ number 11 games deep into the season. The Scarlet Knights, who rank first in the Big East in turnover margin, rely on a conservative run-first offense and a stingy defense to get turnovers and create short fields.

The good news for Rutgers is that Louisville has QB issues of its own. Starter Teddy Bridgewater will play with a broken non-throwing wrist Thursday. That means he won’t be able to take snaps under center, from where Louisville runs all of its play-action plays - which means we could see a more conservative game plan from Louisville. So this game could all bpil down to which side can stop the run better than the other.

Rutgers owns the 11th-ranked rushing defense in the nation (110.7 yds against per game) while Louisville ranks 60th in that category (159.9 yds per game). Both teams are similar in rushing offense with Rutgers ranking 94th and Louisville ranking 91st in the nation.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/24/12 22-*25-*2 46.81% -*2750 Detail
11/23/12 13-*11-*1 54.17% +*450 Detail
11/22/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/20/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/17/12 49-*47-*2 51.04% -*1350 Detail
11/16/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
11/15/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
11/14/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail
11/10/12 43-*35-*1 55.13% +*2250 Detail
11/09/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/08/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
11/07/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/03/12 37-*34-*2 52.11% -*200 Detail
11/02/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/01/12 4-*0-*0 100.00% +*2000 Detail

Totals 185-*161-*8 53.47% +3950



NCAAF

Thursday, November 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 7:30 PM ET Rutgers -3 500

Rutgers - Under 43.5 500

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Northern Illinois, Kent State Battle For MAC Championship

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/30/2012 at 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: NIU -5, O/U 58
Television: ESPN2

Northern Illinois Huskies: A chance to extend their winning streak to 12 and potentially find their way into a BCS bowl game awaits the Huskies (11-1 straight-up, 9-3 against the spread) if they can close out a perfect MAC campaign Friday at Ford Field. Northern Illinois romped past Eastern Michigan a week ago with a 49-7 victory as 3-TD road favorites. Running back Akeem Daniels scored touchdowns on four of his 12 carries to lead the Huskies while quarterback Jordan Lynch rushed for over 100 yards for an NCAA-record 10th straight game to go along with an efficient day passing (16-of-25, 168 yards, 1 TD). The NIU attack ranks 16th in the country in total offense (482.6 yards per game), ninth in rushing (245 ypg) and tied for 11th in scoring (40.5 points per game). Northern Illinois has won and covered the last five matchups against Kent State, including last year's 40-10 rout in which the Huskies held the Flashes to just 70 yards of total offense.

Kent State Golden Flashes: Coach Darrell Hazell's troops (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) scored a 28-6 triumph last week vs. Ohio, which was Kent State's 10th straight of the season and completed a perfect 8-0 run through the MAC schedule. The Flashes also feature a strong ground game with Dri Archer and Traylon Durham, who both went over the 1,000-yard rushing plateau this year. Bettors will want to monitor the status of Archer, who twisted an ankle in last week's game and is currently listed as probable for Friday's battle (click to check updated college football injury report). Four of Kent's last six games have gone "over" the total, but four of the last five in this series failed to reach the scoreboard hurdle.

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Bruins Get Second Shot At Stanford In Pac-12 Title Game

Stanford opened as a double-digit favorite against UCLA in the Pac-12 title game.

UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal

Pac-12 Title Game Betting Preview
Date: 11/30/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Stanford -10½, O/U 51½
Television: FOX

Friday's Pac-12 Title game between Stanford (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) and UCLA (9-3, 6-3) is a rematch of last week’s game where the Cardinal beat the Bruins, 35-17. Stanford has beaten UCLA four straight times both straight-up and against the spread and is riding an eight-game home winning streak overall. The Bruins have a solid rushing offense, but they were stuffed last week on the ground to the tune of 73 yards and will have a tall task again in this game facing Stanford's top-ranked rushing defense.

UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley passed for over 260 yards with one touchdown and one interception last week against the Cardinal and for the season his top two targets are averaging over 16 yards per reception. Still, the freshman QB needs help from the rushing offense, and he also needs time in the pocket, which he did not have last week in getting sacked seven times from the Cardinal pass rush, which leads the nation in that category. If UCLA’s offensive line plays well, Hundley may have a big game since Stanford’s pass defense only ranks 89th in the nation.

UCLA RB Johnathan Franklin rushed for 65 yards last week, averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per carry. Facing Stanford and its great run defense is a tall task, but he has to run the ball well or the Bruins may be in trouble.

Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is 3-0 since becoming the starter, and all the wins were facing teams ranked in the Top 25. His main target is 6-foot-6 TE Zach Ertz, who led the Cardinal in receiving yards last week and may cause problems again since the Bruins only rank 98th in the nation in pass defense.

Stanford RB Stepfan Taylor had a great game against UCLA last week with 142 rushing yards, averaging more than seven yards per carry, with two TDs. He will again be facing a Bruins run defense that ranks 53rd in the nation.

The winner of this game will head to the Rose Bowl while the loser will be out of the BCS bowl picture.

Stanford has not played in the Rose Bowl since the 2000 season and UCLA has not played in the Rose Bowl since the 1999 season.

UCLA vs. Stanford Key Betting Trends

On the season, UCLA is 7-5 ATS with an "over/under" record of 8-4 while Stanford is 8-4 ATS with an "over/under" record of 4-8.

UCLA has only covered the spread in five of its last 17 road games. In the Bruins' last five games overall, the posted total has gone "over" every time.

Stanford has covered the spread in its last four games facing a team with a winning record. In the Cardinal's last seven games, the posted total has gone "under" 5 times.

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Pac-12 Championship

November 30, 2012

For the second time in six days, the UCLA Bruins (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) and Stanford Cardinal (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) hook up. In an odd and unexpected twist, these two Pac-12 Conference foes met in the regular season finale, and then each clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game to be played in Palo Alto, Calif.

Freshman QB Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal trucked the Bruins 35-17 in Pasadena last Saturday, and will now have the Bruins visiting their turf at Stanford Stadium. The line opened at 10 points, but bettors are dubious that the Cardinal can dominate for a second consecutive game. The line has dropped to around eight points.

Hogan and the pass game has been solid for Stanford, but watch out for RB Stepfan Taylor, too. He needs just 36 yards in Friday's game to pass Darrin Nelson for the school's all-time rushing yardage record. That's a mark which has stood since Nelson was on campus from 1977-81, so that tells you a little bit about how special Taylor is, especially considering this team has seen the likes of Tommy Vardell and, more recently, Toby Gerhart. Taylor has rumbled for 1,364 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns.

Also keep an eye on TE Zach Ertz when the going gets tough for the Cardinal offense. He is good for a team-leading 818 receiving yards, making plenty of difficult receptions to move the chains this season. Just ask Oregon how clutch Ertz was, as he had 11 grabs for a game-high 106 yards and a touchdown in Stanford's shocking overtime victory at Autzen Stadium against the then-unbeaten Oregon Ducks.

The Bruins have a pretty dominant back of their own in Johnathan Franklin. He was the nation's leader for a while earlier in the season. He needs 18 all-purpose yards to surpass former standout Maurice Jones-Drew for the school record. He is also within reach of the single-season rushing yardage mark, needing just 66 yards to supplant Karim Abdul-Jabbar in the record books.

While Franklin is good for 1,507 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, he is definitely not the only player for Stanford to be concerned about. QB Brett Hundley has rolled up 3,234 passing yards this season, with 771 yards of those yards going to 6-foot-1, 201-pound WR Shaquelle Evans, who is a nice target for the Bruins. TE Joseph Fauria has logged 11 receiving touchdowns, and is a huge target at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds. He scored a touchdown last week against Stanford, and has found the end zone at least once in five straight games.

On the defensive end, UCLA CB Andrew Abbott is a ball hawk, posting a team-best four interceptions, and Stanford S Ed Reynolds roams the middle of the field, snaring a team-best five interceptions.

RECENT TRENDS

-- The Bruins are just 5-12 ATS in their past 17 road games, and UCLA is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a winning record. The good news is that they have won four road games straight-up this season, which is the most since they won five games away from Pasadena back in 2002. The Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record.

-- For Stanford, they are 4-0 ATS in their past four games against a team with a winning record, and an impressive 17-5-1 ATS in their past 23 Pac-12 tilts. In addition, Stanford has won eight straight and 19 of their past 20 home games overall. Stanford has also covered six of their past seven games overall.

-- In head-to-head matchups, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and the home team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings overall. UCLA hasn't had much success against Stanford lately, either. The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their past seven trips to Palo Alto, and 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings overall.

-- If you're interested in betting the total, the over has come through in five consecutive games for UCLA, and six of the past seven. For Stanford, the over cashed last week, and has hit in two of the past three. However, the over is just 3-3 in the Cardinal's six home games this season. Tonight's total is hovering around 44 points.

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NIU, Kent St. square off in MAC title game Friday

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (11-1)
vs. KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES (11-1)

MAC Championship Game - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Northern Illinois -6.5, Total: 58

A pair of schools without a loss in conference play will clash for the MAC Championship Friday night when No. 19 Northern Illinois and No. 18 Kent State meet at Ford Field in Detroit.

Both teams are 8-0 in conference play with NIU going 6-2 ATS and KSU going 7-1 ATS. Since re-joining the MAC, the Huskies are 6-1 (SU and ATS) in seven meetings with the Flashes, winning 40-10 last year. Northern Illinois is playing in its third straight MAC Championship game, scoring the final 23 points in last year’s 23-20 win over Ohio. NIU QB Jordan Lynch has 39 total TD this season and a streak of 100+ rushing yards in 10 straight games. KSU has two 1,000-yard rushers, Dri Archer and Trayion Durham. Archer injured his ankle in last week's game, but is probable to play on Friday.

Can the Huskies win their second straight MAC Championship? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Lynch has thrown for 16 touchdowns and just one interception over his past eight games, a span of 216 pass attempts. Although he played sparingly in last year's rout of Kent State, he was still able to rush for 46 yards and a touchdown on just eight carries (5.8 YPC) and complete 3-of-4 passes for 22 more yards. But Lynch won't be the only player carrying the football on Friday. Akeem Daniels ran for 112 yards and 4 TD on just 12 carries in last week's 49-7 blowout at Eastern Michigan, and needed only six carries to gain 58 yards against the Flashes last year. NIU's defense has been outstanding late in the year, holding four of the past six opponents to seven points or less. The Huskies' defensive line gets great pressure on the quarterback (2.8 sacks per game, T-14th in FBS) and has tallied 7.2 Tackles For Loss per game (16th in nation). This surge at the line of scrimmage has led to 21 forced turnovers in the past eight games.

Kent State was held to seven yards on 37 carries in the loss to Northern Illinois last year, but its rushing offense has been much improved this year, ranking 11th in the nation with 242 YPG. Not only does Archer have 1,337 yards on a crazy 9.7 YPC with 14 TD on the ground, but he's also KSU's top receiver with 458 yards and 4 TD. Durham has 1,176 yards (5.0 YPC) and 14 scores on the ground and is looking to redeem himself from his paltry 39 yards on 15 carries (2.6 YPC) against NIU as a freshman. The Flashes can't afford to trail in this game because they don’t have a good enough quarterback to throw his way back into the football game. Senior Spencer Keith has just 11 TD and 7 INT in a dozen games, and averages a mere 125 passing YPG in the past eight games, failing to reach 200 passing yards in any of these games. His offensive line does a solid job protecting him (1.3 sacks allowed per game, T-29th in nation), which is vital against the Huskies D-Line. Kent State also boasts the best turnover margin in the entire country (+20), with an astounding 35 takeaways and just 15 giveaways. This ratio has helped make up for a subpar defense allowing 410 total YPG (75th in FBS), including 282 passing YPG, which is the 10th-most yards allowed through the air in the nation.