The Bum's Oct-Nov NBA Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Thursday

November 29, 2012

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Spurs are 12-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since January 11, 2011 on the road after a game in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Warriors are 8-0 OU (24.0 ppg) since January 30, 2007 with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Warriors are 8-0 OU (14.0 ppg) since February 08, 2010 at home as a dog after losing the previous matchup in which Stephen Curry played fewer than 30 minutes.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since January 21, 2012 when playing their fourth game in five days.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Heat are 8-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since January 22, 2011 as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.

-- The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since November 29, 2000 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Miami
The Spurs look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. San Antonio is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 501-502: San Antonio at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.910; Miami 127.015
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Denver at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.146; Golden State 116.628
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 1 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 29

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SAN ANTONIO (13 - 3) at MIAMI (10 - 3) - 11/29/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 60-32 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 55-37 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 257-194 ATS (+43.6 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 90-124 ATS (-46.4 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (8 - 7) at GOLDEN STATE (8 - 6) - 11/29/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 97-75 ATS (+14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-3 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 29

Hot Teams
-- Miami won its last four games (3-3 as HF). Spurs won last five games, all on road; this is their 4th game in last five nights. Also first time Spurs are an underdog this season. Heat hasn't played since Saturday.
-- Nuggets won four of last five games (2-3 as AF). Golden State won five of last seven games (0-2 as HU).

Cold Teams
-- None.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight San Antonio games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Denver road games went over the total.




NBA

Thursday, November 29

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. MIAMI
San Antonio is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 20 of San Antonio's last 24 games when playing Miami
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

10:30 PM
DENVER vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Denver
Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games


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NBA

Thursday, November 29

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NBA TNT doubleheader: Rested Heat host Spurs, Nuggets visit red-hot Warriors
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San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-6, 203.5)

The San Antonio Spurs have built up the best road record in the NBA at 9-1. The Miami Heat have yet to lose at home. Something has to give when the Heat host the Spurs on Thursday. San Antonio has won the first five of its six-game road trip and was able to give stars Tim Duncan and Tony Parker plenty of rest in a blowout of the Orlando Magic on Wednesday. Miami has been waiting around since Saturday.

The Heat have won four straight overall and are leading the NBA in scoring at 104.8 points. LeBron James has been fantastic, but Miami has also benefited from the addition of Ray Allen, who has scored 17 points in each of the last two games and is averaging 12.8 off the bench. The Spurs have their own dynamic scoring threat off the bench in Manu Ginobili and are only slightly behind Miami in scoring at 102.6 points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE SPURS (13-3, 10-5-1 ATS): San Antonio did not have any player log more than 32 minutes in Wednesday’s 110-89 victory at Orlando and needed Duncan for only 27. The former MVP has gotten off to his best start in years and is contributing on both ends. He had five blocks to go along with 15 points against the Magic. The Spurs have been able to put up big point totals thanks to Parker’s penetration and a host of 3-point shooters. Ginobili went 6-of-9 from beyond the arc on Wednesday and Danny Green, Gary Neal and Matt Bonner are all capable of getting hot from 3-point range.

ABOUT THE HEAT (10-3, 6-7 ATS): Miami can shoot 3-pointers too, with Allen and Mario Chalmers streaking out on the wings, but is also able to play just about any style thanks to James. The reigning MVP continues to round out his game as both a scorer and a distributor. He scored 30 points and the Heat exploded in the last two minutes to avoid a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday. Dwyane Wade, who has been battling a foot injury, will benefit the most from the four-day break Miami has had between games. Wade has played in the last two games but struggled to 6-of-15 shooting and committed four turnovers against the Cavaliers.

TRENDS:

* Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Miami.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 19-4 in the last 23 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Miami F Shane Battier (knee) is doubtful for Thursday after missing practice this week.

2. The Heat have taken two straight in the series, including a 120-98 home win in the lone meeting last season. James scored 33 in that matchup.

3. The Spurs have done the bulk of their damage on the road trip without F Kawhi Leonard (knee) and G-F Stephen Jackson (finger). Both will be out on Thursday.



Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (+1.5, 200)

The Golden State Warriors have surged into contention at the top of the Pacific Division thanks to five wins in seven games and some rapid improvement from their young players. One opponent the Warriors have not been able to solve has been the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have taken two meetings from Golden State already this season, including a 107-101 overtime setback at ORACLE Arena on Nov. 10.

Denver had its four-game winning streak snapped at Utah on Monday - the beginning of a stretch of eight of nine on the road. The Nuggets had built that winning streak on defense, holding the four opponents to an average of 90.3 points - including a 102-91 win over the Warriors on Friday. Golden State struggled to contain Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala in that contest but bounced back the following night as rookie Harrison Barnes and second-year swingman Klay Thompson stepped up against Minnesota.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (8-7, 10-5 ATS): After a 4-6 start that had Denver struggling to put things together on both ends of the floor during the same game, the Nuggets seemed to gel during the four-game winning streak. They went over 100 points three times during the run while also holding each of the four opponents under the century mark. Denver could not keep that up on Monday, when it suffered a 105-103 loss at Utah. Iguodala drew a pair of technical fouls and was ejected in the third quarter and the Nuggets struggled to contain the Jazz on the interior.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (8-6, 8-5-1 ATS): Golden State does not have the pieces to exploit Denver’s deficiency on the interior due to Andrew Bogut’s slow recovery from an ankle injury. But the Warriors are becoming one of the stronger perimeter teams with Barnes and Thompson joining Stephen Curry as reliable scoring threats. Barnes struggled through the worst game of his rookie campaign at Denver on Friday, recording a season-low four points on 1-of-5 shooting while struggling with foul trouble against Iguodala and company. Barnes bounced back against the Timberwolves, recording his third double-double with 10 points and 11 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Golden State.
* Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Over is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Golden State.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Denver has won in four of its last six trips to ORACLE Arena. Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried each recorded a double-double in the Nov. 10 win.

2. Curry was held to six points in the last game against Denver.

3. Gallinari has recorded 20 or more field goal attempts in only two games this season - both against the Warriors. He shot a combined 16-for-42 (38 percent) in those two games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, November 29

San Antonio at Miami, 8:05 ET TNT
San Antonio: 26-10 Over as an underdog
Miami: 15-4 ATS at home off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

Denver at Golden State, 10:35 ET TNT
Denver: 8-1 ATS off an ATS win
Golden State: 1-9 ATS after allowing 85 points or less

[Kaptain]

keep em a coming BUM....as always, thanks and GL

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Miami -5.5 500

Miami - Under 205.5 500

Denver - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +1.5 500

Golden State - Over 198.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Friday Tips

November 29, 2012

The final Friday card of November is a strong one with 11 contests to wager on. The Lakers look to bounce back following Tuesday's last-second loss to the Pacers as the Nuggets invade Staples Center. We'll start back east with a playoff team hitting the road against an improving squad seeking some early-season respect.

76ers at Bobcats - 7:05 PM EST

Philadelphia grabbed all three matchups from Charlotte last season, but the Bobcats aren't the same squad that won just nine games in the lockout-shortened campaign. The Bobcats have already won seven games this season under new head coach Mike Dunlap, as they go for their sixth victory at Time Warner Cable Arena.

The Sixers held off the Mavericks on Tuesday night, 100-98, as Philadelphia failed to cover all three games on its recent homestand. Philadelphia starts a brief two-game road trip that extends to Chicago on Saturday, as Doug Collins' club goes for its third winning streak of three games this season. Four of Philadelphia's last five games have hit the 'over,' but the Sixers have cashed just the 'over' on the highway just once in five tries.

The Bobcats return the highway after dropping two of three games, including a 94-91 loss at Atlanta as nine-point underdogs. The most embarrassing loss of the season came at Oklahoma City on Monday, a 114-69 trouncing by the Thunder, as Charlotte scored just 24 points in the first half. Charlotte has covered only once in its last four home games after starting the season at 3-1 ATS in North Carolina.

Jazz at Thunder - 8:05 PM EST

Oklahoma City is cashing tickets at a consistent rate recently by posting a 6-1 SU/ATS record the last seven games following Wednesday's double-digit victory over Houston. Utah comes to town on Friday going for its sixth win in seven tries after cruising past New Orleans as a three-point favorite, 96-84 to pick up only its third road triumph of the season.

The Jazz has failed to cover in five attempts as a road underdog this season, while breaking the 100-point mark just once in this span. Utah lost two of three meetings with Oklahoma City last season, including a 111-85 pounding at the hands of the Thunder at Chesapeake Energy Arena on Valentine's Day. Tyrone Corbin's squad is beat-up at the moment as swingman Marvin Williams is doubtful with a concussion, while starting point guard Mo Williams has missed the last two games with an ankle injury.

OKC is scoring plenty of points of late, as the Thunder has hit the 'over' in seven of the last eight games, while eclipsing the 110-point mark six times in this stretch. The Thunder is playing only their second divisional contest of the young season, as Scott Brooks' team knocked off the Blazers as 8 ½-point favorites on November 2.

Bucks at Wolves - 8:05 PM EST

Since Kevin Love returned to the Minnesota lineup on November 21, the Wolves are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Dating back to November 14, Rick Adelman's team has won only one of their last seven contests, coming at Sacramento on Tuesday night, 97-89 as short underdogs. The Bucks haven't been much better recently by dropping four of their previous five games, with the only victory coming in miraculous finish by rallying from a 27-point deficit to shock Chicago on Monday.

Minnesota heads back on the road after three days of rest following Friday's contest, as the Wolves have cashed three of four games at Target Center in the role of a favorite. In spite of getting Love back, Minnesota has failed to break the 100-point plateau in his five games in the lineup, while the Wolves have broken 100 points just once in 14 contests.

Milwaukee owns a perfect 4-0 ATS record as a road underdog this season, while winning three of those games outright at Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago. The offense has slowed down recently by scoring 93 points or less in each of the last three games, but the Bucks are 4-0 ATS when coming off a SU/ATS loss.

Nuggets at Lakers - 10:35 PM EST

Denver plays its league-high 12th road game on Friday, finishing off a back-to-back set following Thursday's one-point setback at Golden State. The Nuggets face the Lakers for the first time since getting bounced by Los Angeles in seven games of the first round of the playoffs in April. The Purple and Gold isn't out for revenge, but out for a better effort after getting tripped up by the Pacers on Tuesday.

Indiana slowed down Los Angeles in a 79-77 barnburner, in spite of Kobe Bryant putting up more than half of the Lakers' points with 40. The Lakers were limited to less than 100 points for the fourth time in five games, while falling to 1-4 ATS in this span. Friday's game marks the first time this season the Lakers are facing a team that is playing with no rest.

The Nuggets have dropped four of the last five meetings at Staples Center, while breaking the 100-point mark just twice. Since starting the season at 0-2 ATS, George Karl's club has cashed 10 of the last 13 games, including a 4-1 ATS ledger as a road underdog. Playing with no rest hasn't been an issue either, as the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS on the second of a back-to-back.

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Friday

November 30, 2012

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nuggets are 0-11 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since December 28, 2009 with no rest off a loss in which they led by 10+ points.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pistons are 11-0 OU (17.5 ppg) since January 02, 2009 off a home win in which their leading scrorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Lakers are 9-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since January 25, 2012 at home after a loss in which Kobe Bryant was the Lakers’ high scorer.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Hawks are 0-10 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since December 30, 2011 as a home favorite after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Trailblazers are 10-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since March 01, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less.

-- The Hawks are 0-10-1 OU (-13.5 ppg) since April 28, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a win in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, November 30

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PHOENIX (7 - 9) at TORONTO (3 - 13) - 11/30/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 2-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 2-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 6) at CHARLOTTE (7 - 7) - 11/30/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (10 - 4) at ORLANDO (5 - 9) - 11/30/2012, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 7-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (6 - 9) at BOSTON (8 - 7) - 11/30/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-0 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 12) at NEW YORK (10 - 4) - 11/30/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 67-93 ATS (-35.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 80-119 ATS (-50.9 Units) in November games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 278-335 ATS (-90.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NEW YORK is 94-73 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 63-38 ATS (+21.2 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=91 points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 12) at ATLANTA (9 - 4) - 11/30/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
ATLANTA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 6-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (5 - 11) at MEMPHIS (11 - 2) - 11/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 101-77 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in November games this season.
MEMPHIS is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
DETROIT is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (9 - 7) at OKLAHOMA CITY (12 - 4) - 11/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 202-162 ATS (+23.8 Units) in all games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (7 - 6) at MINNESOTA (6 - 8) - 11/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 2-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (7 - 8) at SACRAMENTO (4 - 10) - 11/30/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 169-119 ATS (+38.1 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 33-46 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 32-49 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (8 - 8) at LA LAKERS (7 - 8) - 11/30/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 135-177 ATS (-59.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
DENVER is 97-76 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 37-54 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-6 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, November 30

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won five of last seven games, last two by total of five points.
-- Nets won nine of last 11 games, covered last four (2-2 as AU).
-- Knicks are off to 10-4 start (4-0 as HF).
-- Hawks won last six games but are 0-5 vs spread as a HF.
-- Memphis won 11 of last 12 games (5-2 as HF). Pistons won three of last four games (5-4 as AU).
-- Oklahoma City won 11 of last 13 games (6-4 as HF). Jazz won five of last six games (0-4-1 as AU).
-- Pacers won three of last four games (2-1 as AF).

Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost its last five games (1-2 as HU). Suns lost six of eight road games (2-0 as AU; favorites covered seven of their eight road games).
-- Charlotte lost three of last four games (3-3 as HU).
-- Magic lost nine of last 12 games (2-1 as F).
-- Boston lost four of last seven games (1-5-1 as HF). Trailblazers lost last three games, by 13-7-2 points.
-- Wizards are off to 1-12 start, but covered four of last five as road dog.
-- Cavaliers lost 10 of last 11 games, but covered four of last five.
-- Bucks lost four of last five games (4-0 as AU). Minnesota lost five of last six games (3-1 as HF).
-- Sacramento lost seven of its last nine games (2-4 as HU).
-- Nuggets lost last two games by a total of three points, covered four of five as a road underdog. Lakers lost three of last four games (5-3 as HF).

Totals
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Toronto games.
-- Four of last five Philly games went over the total.
-- Last seven Brooklyn games stayed under the total. Orlando's last three games went over.
-- Five of last seven Boston games went over the total. Under is 5-2-1 in Portland's away games.
-- Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total. Three of last four Hawk games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Thunder games went over the total.
-- Last three Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last 12 Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Denver road games went over total.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, November 30

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
BROOKLYN vs. ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Brooklyn's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Orlando is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

7:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHARLOTTE
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home
Charlotte is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games

7:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. TORONTO
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing Phoenix

7:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. BOSTON
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing on the road against New York
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 9 games when playing at home against Washington

7:30 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing Cleveland

8:00 PM
UTAH vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MEMPHIS
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Memphis is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

8:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. MINNESOTA
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Minnesota is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

10:00 PM
INDIANA vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 12 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Sacramento is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

10:30 PM
DENVER vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
LA Lakers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home
LA Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Denver

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, November 30

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Game of the day: Denver Nuggets at L.A. Lakers
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Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers (-5, 205.5)

The woes of the Los Angeles Lakers haven’t ended with the hiring of Mike D’Antoni as coach. Los Angeles has lost three of its last four games entering Friday’s contest against the Denver Nuggets after a substandard shooting performance in Tuesday’s 79-77 loss to the Indiana Pacers. Denver has lost back-to-back games, including a 106-105 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. The Nuggets have blown 16-point leads in each of the defeats.

Los Angeles shot just 31.6 percent (24-of-76) from the field and 53.5 percent from the free-throw line in the loss to Indiana. Kobe Bryant had 40 points and 10 rebounds but also committed 10 turnovers. Bryant hit 5 of 11 3-point attempts while the rest of the Lakers were a combined 1-of-17. Denver’s one-point loss to the Warriors was excruciating in that not only did the Nuggets blew a 16-point lead, but Andre Iguodala’s apparent game-winning 3-point basket was reviewed and found to have left his hands after the buzzer sounded.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Altitude (Denver), Time Warner Cable SportsNet (Los Angeles)

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (8-8, 10-6 ATS): The back-to-back collapses are keeping Denver from being at the 10-win mark. Instead, the Nuggets are at .500 and sit four games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Northwest Division. Denver is 4-7 on the road after the loss to Golden State, and coach George Karl knew there was nothing to contest after the officials ruled Iguodala’s shot was late. “It seems like the clock started early for me,” Karl said. “There’s nothing to argue about. The camera says it’s in his hands.”

ABOUT THE LAKERS (7-8, 6-9 ATS): Forward Pau Gasol had just 10 points on 2-of-9 shooting against the Pacers and is averaging just 9.3 points over the past four games. Gasol isn’t a good fit in D’Antoni’s system and he also says he is being bothered by tendinitis in both knees. “I’m going to play through it and you try to keep it under control,” Gasol said. “It’s a little limiting, but it is what it is. There’s nothing I can do about it. Hopefully, it won’t force me to miss any games unless my performance is way down.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 23-8 in the last 31 meetings.
* Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.
* Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Lakers are 20-4 against the Nuggets at the Staples Center.

2. Denver PG Ty Lawson has nine assists in four of the past five games.

3. Los Angeles F Metta World Peace is four 3-point baskets away from becoming the 68th player in NBA history to reach 1,000.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, November 30

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The best basketball stats for NBA betting
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The endless stream of sports statistics can make even the most analytical handicapper’s head spin to the point of nausea.

And, truth be told, many NBA sharps don’t give the numbers a second glance, basing most of their plays on situational and matchup circumstances.

There are a few stats basketball bettors should lean on when breaking down a game, but these aren’t your general figures, found on the back of basketball cards (do they still have those?). We asked some the Covers Experts, some of the sharpest capping minds in the biz, which stats they consider the most valuable to NBA bettors.

Turnover percentage/Assist-to-turnover ratio

Turnovers can kill a team – and a bet. Careless play can quickly turn the momentum of a game, taking what should be points for your side and swinging them against your wager. Basketball bettors should keep a close eye on stats like turnover percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio.

If you look at the current NBA figures, heading into Thursday, the Los Angeles Lakers are the worst team in terms of turnover percentage – which should come as no surprise to anyone who has bet on L.A. this season. The Lakers, who are a dismal 6-9 ATS, are coughing up the ball on nearly 18 percent of their possessions.

On the other end of the scale, the New York Knicks have been able to take care of the basketball, posting a league-low 12.4 turnover percentage and also top the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.699). The Knicks happen to be one of the best bets at 10-4 SU and ATS to start the year.

“Assist-to-turnover ratio is a stat that I won't make a bet without checking,” says Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

Effective field goal percentage

This offensive stat is a clear way to factor 3-point shooting into a team or players’ field goal percentage, using the formula: Field goals + (0.5 x 3-pointers) / field goal attempts. A team could have a high field goal percentage but may not shoot a lot of 3-pointers, while a team with great range may suffer a bit for those low-percentage shots.

It’s not a shocker to see most of the NBA’s elite clubs top this category, led by the Miami Heat at 55.2 percent heading into Thursday’s showdown with the Spurs, who are third in EFG% at 52.8 percent. The Oklahoma City Thunder are second at 53.5 percent.

In fact, the top five teams in EFG% (Miami, OKC, San Antonio, New York, L.A. Clippers) are a combined 44-28-2 ATS, with the Heat as the only sub-.500 ATS team at 6-7 ATS heading into Thursday.

Pace factor

This unique stat is the brain child of ESPN’s NBA mastermind John Hollinger and is a must-use for totals bettors looking for an edge when it comes to the over/under. Pace factor is simply the average number of possessions a team uses per game, giving you a clearer idea of what teams are running and gunning and which ones are sitting on the ball.

“Stats are key for totals,” says Teddy Covers. “John Hollinger's pace ratings at ESPN.com control the market.”

As of Thursday, the Houston Rockets, with new weapons Jeremy Lin and James Harden, top the league in pace with an average of 97.7 possessions per outing. Houston is fifth in scoring (102.1 ppg) and has topped the total in nine of its 15 games so far, including a 5-2 over/under record on the road.

At the low bottom of the totem pole are the Brooklyn Nets, who average just 90.6 possessions per game. The Nets’ controlled pace has led to 95.6 points a night (18th in the NBA) and limited opponents to only 90.7 points per game – lowest in the league. That strategy has not only helped under bettors cash nine times in Brooklyn’s first 14 games, but Nets backers are also enjoying a 9-3-2 ATS windfall.

Free throw rate

Fouls and their subsequent free throws are a big part of betting basketball. How many of us have been burned by a needless whistle or a missed foul shot in the final seconds?

Free throw rate (free throws attempted/field goals attempted) can be interpreted numerous ways when applied to NBA betting. The stat shows which teams are the best at drawing fouls but needs more of a breakdown when looking at certain teams.

The Lakers lead the league in free throw rate, posting a massive 40.1 FTR which is nearly 12 more than the league average of 28.2. With the best front court in basketball, L.A. is getting to the foul line almost 32 times a game but shooting 66.8 percent from the charity stripe (second worst in the league). In a way, defenses may be getting their money’s worth by hacking the Lakers and those missing points don’t help when L.A. is drawing a pile of points from books most nights.

The Thunder, on the other hand, are second in free throw rate (37.1) and get to the line 27.4 times per game (second in NBA). But, unlike Los Angeles, Oklahoma City makes teams pay for those whistles, hitting an NBA-best 84.5 percent from the stripe. The Thunder recently thumped the Charlotte Bobcats, who allow a 30.6 FTR, 114-69 as 11.5-point home favorites. They made 21 of 23 from the foul line which helped cover that pile of chalk.

The worst team in terms of free throw rate (giving fouls more than getting fouled) is the Sacramento Kings, who boast a -14.16 in terms of FTR difference. The Kings are 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS despite being sizable underdog most nights.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Friday, November 30

Phoenix at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Phoenix: 1-5 ATS as a road underdog
Toronto: 11-4 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more

Philadelphia at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Philadelphia: 33-19 ATS after a non-conference game
Charlotte: 3-12 ATS in home games off a road loss

Brooklyn at Orlando, 7:05 ET
Brooklyn: 7-20 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5
Orlando: 8-0 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more

Portland at Boston, 7:35 ET
Portland: 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 85 points or less
Boston: 10-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival

Washington at New York, 7:35 ET NBATV
Washington: 0-8 ATS in road games on Friday nights
New York: 14-4 ATS in home games after playing a road game

Cleveland at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Cleveland: 33-14 Under after having lost 4 of their last 5
Atlanta: 2-13 ATS in home games in November

Detroit at Memphis, 8:05 ET
Detroit: 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more
Memphis: 10-2 ATS in November

Utah at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Utah: 31-49 ATS after playing a game as favorite
Oklahoma City: 22-10 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games

Milwaukee at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Milwaukee: 73-46 Over after 3 or more consecutive unders
Minnesota: 29-45 ATS after one or more consecutive overs

Indiana at Sacramento, 10:05 ET
Indiana: 8-0 Under in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5
Sacramento: 5-20 ATS in November

Denver at LA Lakers, 10:35 ET ESPN
Denver: 17-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
LA Lakers: 7-19 ATS off a home loss

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Phoenix - 7:00 PM ET Phoenix +2.5 500
Toronto - Over 200.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte +3.5 500
Charlotte - Under 189.5 500

Brooklyn - 7:00 PM ET Orlando +4.5 500
Orlando - Under 186 500

Portland - 7:30 PM ET Portland +5 500
Boston - Under 192 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington +12.5 500
New York - Over 190 500

Cleveland - 7:30 PM ET Cleveland +9 500
Atlanta - Under 189 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit +11 500
Memphis - Under 189 500

Utah - 8:00 PM ET Utah +9 500
Oklahoma City - Over 202.5 500

Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee -1 500
Minnesota - Under 193.5 500

Indiana - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento +1 500
Sacramento - Under 188.5 500

Denver - 10:30 PM ET Denver +5 500
L.A. Lakers - Over 205.5 500